Comment

Paying for the revolution

by Paul Cochrane
written by Paul Cochrane

“Freedom ain’t free” is a commonly used idiom in the United States. Somewhat jingoistic and trite it may be — certainly when used to justify a militaristic US foreign policy — there is still much truth to the expression.

The uprisings in the Arab world this year have certainly not come gratis. Many have paid the ultimate price — death — and the economic losses have been staggering. In post-revolutionary countries, economics has become a major focal point and it was arguably lop-sided economic development as much as political repression that sparked the uprisings in the first place, from Tunisia to Egypt and Bahrain, to Yemen and Syria.  One of the economic factors that contributed to the uprisings and is a cause of much inequality throughout the developing world is capital flight, and while governments may have, to varying degrees, limited ability to stop legitimate investors from pulling up stakes,an area of enforcement where regional authorities have been lax is in stymieing the illicit flow of capital out of their countries. Between 2000 and 2008, according to Global Financial Integrity (GFI) research published this year, illegal capital outflows from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) grew 24.3 percent, far ahead of any other region on earth.

Illicit capital flight refers to funds derived from corruption, money laundering, commercial tax avoidance and trade mispricing, where deals are made for transactions to end up in offshore havens to avoid being taxed. As a result, cash that could have stayed in the country of origin ends up elsewhere, leaving less capital to finance development.  From 1970 to 2008, some $70.5 billion flowed out of Egypt, $25 billion out of Morocco and $25.7 billion out of Algeria. In Egypt, GFI estimates an average of $2.54 billion flowed out of the country each year through illicit trade mis-pricing alone. Tack on corruption and crime, and the figure is a whopping $6.36 billion a year that was not available to the Egyptian financial system and economy. Notably, as Egypt’s gross domestic product spiked and the economy grew in the late 2000s, illicit outflows increased by leaps and bounds, meaning real economic growth was essentially two steps forward, one step back. In 2006, illicit outflows reached $13 billion, $13.6 billion in 2007, and as the global financial crisis hit in 2008, $7.4 billion. Ousted President Hosni Mubarak and his family siphoned off billions from the Egyptian economy, but Egyptian financial elites also helped to hobble the country’s development through illicit outflows. 

Addressing illicit capital flight is a concern for which revolutionaries should fight if the people are to improve their economic future. The problem right now, however, is that with the instability in the MENA, legitimate investors are also pulling their capital out of the region at worrying rates. Jordanian Finance Minister Mohammad Abu Hammour recently said at a meeting of the Union of Arab Bankers that capital flight in the Arab world is estimated at some $500 million a week. Unless such outflows are curbed, the capital needed to invest in post-revolutionary countries will be wanting.

Desperate for cash, these countries will either have to be beholden to donors, or to the conditionalities imposed by global financial institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to stay afloat. In Egypt, with the government’s hard currency reserves reportedly plunging from $36 billion in February to $25 billion in May, some analysts warned that the country could be as bankrupt as Greece by the end of the year.

How to tackle this is tricky. Capital is transferred at the click of a button. Some $1 trillion in illicit inflows enters the Western financial system every year — with an estimated 20 percent to the US — and billions go to offshore havens. Tough withdrawal measures by post-revolution countries may help, but this is both heavy-handed and against the principles offree trade. With an estimated 65 percent of illicit outflows in the form of commercial tax avoidance, ensuring greater transparency by companies and elites in paying tax is a more feasible solution.

In tallying the expense of what it has taken for the MENA region to reach this turning point in history, what must not be overlooked is that those who have a responsibility to help cover the costs should be made to do just that.  After all, democracy must be paid for.

PAUL COCHRANE is the Middle East correspondent for International News Services

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Comment

Tempest broils across the Gulf

by Gareth Smith
written by Gareth Smith

Saudi Arabia overtook Israel as Washington’s largest purchaser of arms in 2009 and their demand shows little sign of abating. Riyadh-Tehran relations are at their worst since the Saudis were funding Saddam Hussein’s legions to mow down Iranian infantry in the 1980s.

The more recent escalation in tensions can be traced back to the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005, which tilted Tehran away from the pragmatic foreign policy of presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami. President Ahmadinejad’s notion of an assertive Iran, and his trenchant criticism of Israel and the United States, struck an unsettling chord around much of the Islamic world and his invocations of the 12th Imam projected an evangelical Shia’ism which the Saudis detested.

But even if Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, continues in his efforts to restrict the president it is unlikely there will be any kind of rapprochement with Riyadh any time soon. The leader’s disquiet with Ahmadinejad derives more from his management of government and choice of advisors than from his role in foreign policy.

Saudi-Iranian tensions were further strained by the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, which replaced a Sunni-led regime with one whose leaders are Shia and allies of Tehran. Iraq’s drift into communal strife further enflamed Saudi’s sectarian sensibilities.

For years, pragmatic heads prevailed. Following the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri and even Hezbollah’s military assertion of power over Beirut in 2008, mediation efforts led by Qatar and Turkey were met with a shared sense in Riyadh and Tehran that escalating violence in Lebanon was in neither’s interests.

But a stalemate in international talks over Iran’s nuclear program fueled Saudi belligerence. By April 2008, according to US diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks, the Saudi ambassador in Washington relayed a plea from King Abdullah that America “cut off the head of the snake”, and last summer The Times newspaper in London reported the Saudis had practiced standing down their air defenses in a test-run for giving Israeli war planes a clear path to Iran’s nuclear facilities. And then came the Arab Spring, whose fires of revolt reached Bahrain, prompting Saudi intervention in February to defend a Sunni monarchy from a Shia majority.

In Syria at least the Saudis see favorable currents in the maelstrom of reform. Change in Damascus could upset relations with Tehran, severing its main logistical link to Hezbollah. Suddenly, there is the prospect of a Sunni-led Syria to counterbalance the Shia dominion in Baghdad.

Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former Saudi intelligence chief and ambassador, revealed in June a clear, if deniable, outline of the ruling family’s thinking when he said Iran was “very vulnerable in the oil sector”, while “more could be done to squeeze the current government”, as a reduction in oil revenues would cripple Tehran’s finances. He  also spoke of Saudi Arabia developing nuclear weapons should Iran do so.

To Saudi chagrin, Iraq has sided with Iran at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, resisting Riyadh’s efforts to agree to higher quotas to lower prices. Riyadh has also reportedly discussed with Washington increasing its crude supplies to China as a way to lure Beijing into reducing its investment in Iran’s energy sector. It is a high risk strategy and may enflame the situation with no tangible benefit.

Despite increased sanctions the International Monetary Fund reported economic growth in Iran at 3.5 percent in 2009/10 (up from an earlier estimate of 0.1 percent). Further, according to the British Petroleum “Statistical Review of World Energy”, Iran increased production of oil and natural gas in 2010 by 0.9 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, despite sanctions targeting investment in Iranian energy.

Iran remains resilient and has seen some improvements in its relations with Pakistan and Afghanistan, where US influence is waning. In June Iran’s military commanders declared themselves pleased with the tests of new, medium-range missiles — and the growing Saudi weapons arsenal will no doub tincite Tehran to further reenforce its armament program.

Gareth Smyth has reported from around the Middle East for almost two decades and was formerly the Financial Times correspondent in Tehran

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Comment

Israel’s eroding democracy

by Peter Speetjens
written by Peter Speetjens

One of the inherent ironies of a proper democracy is that a parliamentary majority can vote to temper or even topple the tenets upon which a country’s democratic qualities are founded. In that sense, no one can disagree that Israel is a true democracy.

On July 11, the Knesset passed a Boycott Law, which penalizes any Israeli citizen who dares call for or endorse an economic, cultural or academic boycott of the country as a whole or “areas under its control.” Approved by a 47-to-38 vote, the law allows companies and institutions targeted by such a call or endorsement to seek damages. It furthermore stipulates that an individual or company calling for a boycott will no longer be eligible to bid in government tenders. It remains to be seen if the law will stand when applied in court, as it has been protested as a violation of Israel’s constitutional right of free speech. It seems the law will face such a legal test sooner rather than later, as Aryeh Eldad of the National Union party has already filed a complaint against Dror Morag and other members of the left-leaning Meretz party, after they called for the labeling of products made in Israeli settlements.

The law has come under intense scrutiny in Israel and abroad, including in the United States. The New York Times slammed the law as “not befitting a democracy.” Even the Anti-Defamation League, one of the pillars of the Israeli Lobby, which has always proudly opposed any calls for a boycott of Israel, defined the law as “an unnecessary impingement of Israelis’ basic democratic right to freedom of speech.”

Ironically, the US itself in 1977 passed legislation in response to the Arab Boycott of Israel, which prohibits American taxpayers from taking action in support of an unsanctioned foreign boycott against a friendly state. When in recent years a potential boycott of Israel was discussed at American university campuses, pro-Israel elements keenly reminded people of the existence of the little known “Office of Anti-boycott Compliance” within the Department of Commerce.

Meanwhile, Israel’s ruling coalition of right-wing nationalist and religious parties happily ignored the wave of criticism and perceived the passing of the law as a green light to revive an older and equally controversial initiative: The launch of a parliamentary inquiry into the foreign funding of Israeli human rights organizations. Pushed by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Likud Member of Parliament (MP) Danny Danon, it aims to tackle Israeli organizations that, according to them, work against the interests of the country.

Initiatives such as these illustrate not only Israel’s increasing schism with its own democratic principles, but also a shift away from the prospect of a negotiated peace with the Palestinians and Arab states. On the right there is the growing number of Jewish fundamentalists who, with a metaphorical Torah in one hand and an Uzi in the other, claim that the West Bank is an integral part of Israel, as God once upon a very long time ago gave Judea and Samaria to the Jews. On the left there are the secular, liberal segments of Israeli society, willing to comply with international law and cede the occupied territories in exchange for a peace deal, but they have largely been cowed into obscurity over the last decade or so as the right and far right have seized the initiative, dominated Israeli politics and set the social agenda, and this momentum shows no signs of slowing.

In an interview with Robert Fisk, the late Yeshayahu Leibowitz (1903-1994), one of Israel’s greatest 20th century thinkers, sketched a doom scenario for the country if the occupation of the West Bank were allowed to continue. “Two consequences are unavoidable,” he said. “Internally, the state of Israel will become a full-fledged fascist state with concentration camps not only for Arabs but even for Jews like me. Externally, we will have a war till the finish against the Arabs, with the sympathy of the entire world on the Arab side. This catastrophe can be avoided only by partition.”  At that time, his words were hardly taken seriously. Yet today, seeing the actions of the religious right and extremist hotheads such as Lieberman, one must wonder if we are not peering over the precipice of a very slippery slope.

PETER SPEETJENS is a Beirut-based journalist

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Finance

Funding the summer’s frivolities

by Vanessa Khalil
written by Vanessa Khalil

Eager to turn the page on money laundering scandals and rumors that hounded the industry at the beginning of 2011, Lebanese banks have gone on a summer retail advertising binge. From the refurbished and repackaged classic loans to the downright quirky new ones, Lebanon’s summer banking products are certainly putting on display the country’s on-credit conspicuous consumption.

Loan innovation

In 2004, Byblos Bank made the first move away from classic retail loans [housing, car and personal loans] when it introduced both wedding and travel loans. “The big wedding trend took off in 2000, and people started spending more on event planners, large venues, caterers and such. They were in need of huge budgets,” says Georgina Eid Dinar, head of group consumer loans at Byblos Bank. The bank’s $15,000 wedding loan ceiling far from covers lavish ceremonies, but Dinar says accompanying benefits, such as zero percent file and insurance fees outside the monthly installments, a three-month grace period and a slightly discounted interest rate — around 1 percent less than the regular personal loan — add value to an otherwise common personal loan.

Ronald Zirka, head of marketing and retail divisions at Banque Libano-Francaise (BLF), says the bank’s wedding package is the newest addition to an extensive retail product line, part of BLF’s somewhat recent strategy to divest from corporate banking and go into more consumer lending. “In 2009, we decided we wanted to dig into retail because we wanted to diversify the risk. We wanted equilibrium between corporate, small-to-medium enterprises and consumer loans,” he says. BLF’s wedding package offers a preferential interest rate of 9.99 percent on the wedding loan, compared to 13 percent for the usual personal loan, with the installments spread over a range of 18 to 24 months. Zirka says the package offers instant cash collateral to the bank. “We usually advise the customer to place the wedding list against the loan. That way no money will be spent nor lost. And if they do that they can go up to five years [for the reimbursement period], because we will have secured our guarantee.”

For Dinar, plush honeymoons that followed big weddings called for having a travel loan on the side. “At the time [2004], trip organizers and travel agencies started arranging for cruises and small trips. We went through the travel agencies and came up with packages for the [travel loan],” she says. There are currently seven banks that offer a travel loan in Lebanon, most of which allow for some sort of grace period and generally restrict the repayment time frame to a year. The rationale behind these terms and conditions, according to BLF’s Zirka, is that customers who take out a travel loan will usually want to settle it over a period of nine to twelvemonths, but need some breathing time first.

“It will be two to three weeks of vacation, and when they come back they will have spent a considerable sum of money. All in all, that is around a month and a half of no productivity. So we gave them a two-month grace period,” he says. Interest rates on these loans, however, are either generally the same as those on classic personal loans or cleverly embedded in extra charges. “The travel loan is at a zero percent interest rate and it is a true zero percent,” says Byblos’ Dinar, adding that customers are only charged a file fee, which adds up to 5 percent of the total loan amount.

With the exception of a one-year repayment period, Bank of Beirut’s “Safar” [travel] loan is no different from the bank’s personal loan, ranging between $500 and $15,000, and offering around a 7 percent interest rate on the total amount. 

Outside impetus

Mira Raham, head of sales and marketing units at Credit Bank, says the push for travel loans was initiated some 15 years ago by travel agencies and cruise organizers to facilitate deals with their own customers. “The travel agency cannot install to the customer because after all, it’s not a bank,” she says.

BLF’s Zirka agrees that targeted retail products have helped bring suppliers and banks closer together to service both sides’ clients, which particularly benefited home appliance and electronics retailers. It was back in1999 that Bank Audi launched the first ever personal computer (PC) loan in Lebanon. Soon after, others followed. “We implemented our consumer/PC loans about three years ago. We have the lion’s share in this market,” says George Aouad, head of the retail banking division at Bank of Beirut. While the bank’s consumer/PC loan doesn’t diverge a great deal from their personal loan in settlement terms, Aouad says the interest rate on such a loan can fluctuate depending on the risk associated with certain appliance and high-tech retailers and distributors. “When I have the personal guarantee of the retailer the rate could be lower. That’s why we apply sometimes between 5.5 and 6 percent[interest rate]. But it’s usually 7 percent,” he says.

Credit Bank’s Raham says that it is the bank’s own clients that have paved the way for loans such as those for furniture and home appliances. “Many of our clients own galleries, furniture and home appliance stores. So we capitalize on that and try to cross-sell the banks’ products with those of our client-suppliers,” she says. BLF is slated to add an appliance loan to its current retail portfolio, but had previously introduced an iPad loan for a limited time in the summer of 2010, and plans to repeat this for theiPad2 soon. “We went into the iPad loan because it was a partnership with L’Orient Le Jour. The customer got a two-year print and iPad application subscription to L’Orient Le Jour along with the tablet itself,” says Zirka.

Home sweet home

But while travel, wedding and appliance loans could well be considered marketing ploys and gadgetized versions of the personal loan, it is summer housing loans, particularly those that target Lebanese expatriates, that largely prop up the season’s lending activity. “Housing loans are most demanded in summer because the expats come to Lebanon during that time, apply [for loans] and do their paperwork,” says Dinar, adding that Byblos Bank’s expat housing loan offers vary from the regular housing loan in services and conditions rather than in payment terms. “There is no difference in amounts, or down payments. The focus is the service [of availability] because some banks do not lend to non-residents,” she says.

But Zirka says that expatriates bring in higher incomes as well as more risk, both of which should be taken into account when lending to this particular segment. BLF’s expat housing loan requires a minimum 25 percent down payment of the house’s total value, compared to 15 percent asked of residents. “Expats make and spend much more money [than residents], especially during summer time. Every time they come to Lebanon they spend most of the money they put aside,” he says. “That’s why we finance a little bit less in terms of percentage out of the loan amount requested. The down payment is a bit greater than the one requested of residents,” says Aouad. 

What’s in a name?

When asked about the need for banking products that can be easily replaced by the classic personal loan, Byblos’ Dinar says it is the way these targeted loans are packaged as on-the-shelf products that attracts a bigger customer base. “At the end, whether the interest is 12 or 7 percent, customers are only interested in how much they have to pay at the end of each month,” she says. But Zirka says that loans such as those for home appliances and electronics are necessary to facilitate consumers’ on-the-spot big purchases. “It saves the hassle for a customer who, let’s say, wants to purchase from Khoury Home. It makes the purchase a one-stage transaction instead of two,” he explains.   

But some banks have taken niche marketing to extremes, introducing products that are borderline gimmicks. Both Bank of Beirut and the Arab Countries (BBAC) and Credit Bank offer a jewelry loan, with Credit Bank’s “Bijou” loan imposing a 20 to 62-years-old age bracket for beneficiaries who can borrow up to $10,000, and settle the amount over a maximum of two years. “It’s mainly young ladies or men who would like to offer [jewelry to] their wives; usually the young generation,” says Credit Bank’s Raham, who admits that the “Bijou” loan falls under the bank’s marketing, rather than product strategy.

“[Summer loans] all fall under the umbrella of a personal loan. You can make up an infinite list of products, but it goes to the same place [on the balance sheet]. It’s good marketing though, to address certain segments for a specific purpose,” says Bank of Beirut’s Aouad. But Zirka is cautious about bombarding clients with too many products. “First National Bank has a plastic surgery loan and a fertility loan. It’s a normal consumer loan but repackaged. It’s not wrong what they’re doing. We want to offer targeted products but still respect the banking image,” he says.

On managing credit risk that comes with tailoring loans on which people can easily default — Banque du Liban’s Centrale des Risques, the entity that assesses loan applicants’ eligibility, only requires such a process for personal loans above $5,000 — Zirka says that some of the targeted products offer relief for the banks. “What we are concerned about normally when we give out a personal loan is: Is the customer using the money for gambling? As an example. But someone who is getting married has priorities,” he says in reference to BLF’s wedding package. 

For Aouad, adding some preventive conditions and terms to these products is key. Bank of Beirut’s taxi car loan, which Aouad says is a best seller during summer time, finances either taxi cars’ red license plates, which can cost $18,000 to $20,000, or the new and used cars themselves.

“Taxi cars are most prone to accidents so we included total loss insurance. The interest rate was also put in a logical way [around 5percent on new cars and 6.5 percent on used ones, compared to 3.9 percent and 4percent for the regular car loan], because we know that the car will depreciate very quickly,” explains Aouad.

Still, banks find comfort in setting low ceilings for these targeted loans. “We could adopt a no-limit policy with loans, but this is not good neither for them [the customers] nor us,” says Byblos’ Dinar. Aouad says customers could drown in debt if they take on more than what they can handle. “But it’s only risky if the bank’s lending policy is loose,” says Credit Bank’s Raham.

 

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Special Report

The coveted steps to perfection

by Executive Editors
written by Executive Editors

Underground, down a dark driveway and below a nondescript building in the back streets of the Beirut neighborhood, Tabaris, is a small, unmarked door. Behind this secret portal a bounty of diamonds, sapphires, rubies, gold, platinum, pearls and other precious gems lies in wait. Here, a treasure trove of wishes is carefully and painstakingly molded, filed and polished by the finest expert craftsmen into symbols of luxury and cherished personal items that will eventually adorn fingers, ears, necklines and wrists.

Before it ends up on the velvet pillows of the Mouzannar showroom to be gawked at and drooled over, the giant aquamarine and diamond-encrusted platinum ring passes through many hands. Under the watchful eyes of more than 20 security cameras [1], the jewellers use age-old techniques, with the help of some modern technology, to perform their transformation of raw materials into glorious ostentation.

When the order for the ring comes in to the jeweller, the first step is selecting the stone. Then, using architectural software [2], the cast setting is digitally drawn in three dimensions. At this stage, the ring is moulded in wax [3], before the pure platinum is melted and poured into the setting. Emerging rough and unfinished [4,5], the ring is cleaned and weighed for value before being polished and filed; each tiny precious filing is collected on stainless steel trays for a later date. The giant piece of aquamarine, meanwhile, is weighed and examined in detail for quality, clarity and shape. The same treatment is given to the diamonds that will form the stone’s bed. Dozens of white diamonds pour from plastic zip-lock freezer bags [6] stored in rows in filing cabinets according to size and gem.

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Once the gems are selected and prepared, they are ready to be set in the cast. The diamonds are laid out in tiny magnificent rows along the diameter, the aquamarine carefully fitted in its platinum jaw. Now, close to ready, the polishing [7,8] begins again — a process the jeweller explains will file away at least 10 percent of the original weight of the metal. At cleaning stage, the ring is plunged into a bucket of warm soapy water [9] using ordinary dishwashing liquid, then blasted with steam to remove any invisible scratches.

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Finally the ring is submerged in salted water and exposed to an electric current to remove any lasting grease before getting a last bath and puff of steam. Still exhibiting golden tones, the ring is lastly dipped in rhodium [10], from which the metal emerges gleaming white. Dried with a hairdryer [11], the ring is ready to leave its humble home [12]. After a process that has taken three days, the ring is taken to the showroom for pricing and exhibition [13].

[10]
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Real estate

For your information

by Executive Editors
written by Executive Editors

Dubai’s cedar shoreline

By the fourth quarter of this year, the island of “Lebanon” will be home to the first commercially operating project within The World, the 300-island man-made archipelago off the coast of Dubai developed by Nakheel. The island is fully owned by Indian entrepreneur Wakil Admed Azmi, who has spent approximately $16.3 million [AED 60 million] on the construction of a beach club and facilities, in addition to the initial cost of the island. Reza Sinnen, operations manager at the World Island Beach Club (which is being developed on the island), told the United Arab Emirates (UAE) daily Arabian Business in a June 15 article that another $2.17 million [AED 8 million] would have to be invested to complete the commercial resort, which includes a restaurant, lounge, entertainment venue and cabanas, with facilities that allow yachts of up to 80 feet to be docked. The resort aims to sell club memberships that cost up to AED 40,000 [$10,889] per year. Sinnen said problems with the delivery of water, electricity and on-island services mounted as Nakheel’s credit burdens grew, but that the owner cut construction costs by nearly 70 percent and managed the project himself in order to complete it on time. “We are about four months away. We are tying up with partners, yacht operators, travel agents, the Road and Transport Authority, Sealink…there is a lot to do,” Sinnen said. While 70 percent of the 300 islands are sold, according to Nakheel, none of the other owners have begun construction, except Kleindienst Group, which is developing resorts on the six islands it owns, which together are known as the Heart of Europe Project.

A greener prospect

A new environmental initiative that rates the green credentials of buildings in Lebanon was launched in June. The scheme was announced on the closing day of the 16th Project Lebanon, the international trade exhibition for construction and environmental technology that saw around 500 contractors and construction companies from 26 countries set up shop at Beirut International Exhibition and Leisure Center (BIEL) for the week. The ARZ Building Rating System is the first of its kind in the Middle East to classify the environmental performance of existing commercial buildings. The system takes into account Lebanon’s water and electricity shortages, and includes renovation conditions to reduce greenhouse gases. Building owners can invest between $100,000 and $4.9 million, based on building size and condition, to save between $35,000 and $890,000 in costs per year, according to Lebanese Council for Green Buildings President Samir Traboulsi.

From Damascus to Mayfair

A June 20 article in British daily The Telegraph reported that former Syrian Vice President Rifaat al-Assad bought a 10.3 million pound [$16 million] Mayfair townhouse in 2007 by signing a 110-year lease from the Grosvenor Estate, with funds paid by an offshore company based in the British Virgin Islands. Given the current unrest in Syria and the possibility of several Syrian officials facing international investigation, the properties could be confiscated in the event of a criminal investigation against Rifaat al-Assad for “crimes against humanity,” as he is blamed for ordering the massacre in the Syrian town of Hama in 1982 that killed tens of thousands. The article added that the 73-year-old uncle of current Syrian President Bashar al-Assad did not live in the residence until more than a year ago, but has been residing mostly in France and Spain. In 2008, Hafez al-Assad also bought a lease on the adjacent property, but Land Registry documents did not reveal the amount of the contract. In related news, Rami Makhlouf, the maternal cousin of the president, appeared in a rare televised appearance on state television on June 17 and pledged to relinquish all his real estate in Syria to the state and give up any business ventures that bring him personal gain, such as his stake in Syria’s monopolistic telecommunications company Syriatel.

Tourism takes the cake

Of the 35 business developments launched with the help of the Investment Development Authority of Lebanon (IDAL) between 2003 and 2010, tourism projects accounted for 79 percent ($860 million) of the $1.1 billion total mobilized investment. IDAL indicated that the bulk of tourism projects were the construction of luxury hotels and resorts, generating nearly 3,300 jobs over the same time period. The industrial sector was the second largest recipient of IDAL-supported investment between 2003 and 2010, receiving $131 million. IDAL mobilized investments accounted for some 4,760 new jobs over the seven-year period.

Solidere trumps 2010

Due to a surge in operating profits, Lebanese real estate firm Solidere was able to increase net profits by 7.8 percent in 2010 to reach $196.5 million, according to a June 15 statement by the firm. Sales of land plots and increasing revenues from rental units expanded Solidere’s operating profits to $272.2 million last year, a yearly increase of 16.5 percent. Based on its market capitalization of $3.1 billion at the end of 2010, the company was ranked 61st in Al Iktissad Wal Aamal magazine’s annual survey of the Top 100 publicly-traded Arab firms in the region, down from 45th place in the previous survey. As the largest property developer in Lebanon, its total assets are estimated to be worth around $10 billion today, while unsold property is valued at $7.5 billion.

Noor International’s dodgy dealings exposed

Beirut-based developer Noor International, founded by Mohammed Saleh, has not completed more than 5 percent of its residential projects sold off-plan, according to a June 1 article in Lebanese daily Al Akhbar.  It further claims that Saleh fled to Saudi Arabia in May after scamming investors of around $10 million. Noor International first gained notoriety (or infamy, depending on one’s perspective) in 2006 when Saleh sought to raise $1 billion from investors to build “Cedar Island”, a dredging and construction development that would have seen the creation of a 3.3-square-kilometer island off the Lebanese coast in the shape of a cedar tree. To the relief of many, this project was among the 95 percent of Noor’s development ideas never to see the light of day.

Gloom and dividends

Property transactions contracted 21.3 percent year-on-year by the end of April, while the value of the sales dipped 16 percent over the year, according to BLOM Bank. Further indicating a slow-down in construction activity this year, the major supply indicator, cement deliveries, fell 3.5 percent as of the end of April in comparison to the same time last year, according to the Order of Engineers of Beirut and Tripoli, and Byblos Bank. Holcim Liban, one of the major cement producers in Lebanon, will pay $30.25 million in dividends to shareholders starting June 27, at a dividend ratio (dividend payout as a ratio of 2010 net income) of 80.8 percent. Société Libanaise des Ciments Blancs, another major local producer, will also distribute dividends based on last year’s profits on the same day.

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Banking & Finance

Regional equity markets

by Executive Editors
written by Executive Editors

Beirut SE  

Current year high: 1,073.93    Current year low: 890.83

>  Review period:  Closed June 23 at 892.64 points       Period Change: -0.25%

Slumping Beirut stocks were not buoyed by the long-awaited emergence of a new, Mikati-led government. Instead, the market seesawed ahead of an anticipated political showdown during the upcoming parliamentary session and on uncertainty about unrest in Syria, leaving stocks down 8.2% in 2011 through June 23. Shares of Solidere hardly budged despite positive news of an 8% increase in 2010 net profits. Political bickering has driven the stock down 4.5% so far in 2011, though it is outperforming Bank Audi and BLOM Bank, which shed 15.6% and 10% respectively.

Amman SE  

Current year high: 2,477.99                Current year low: 2,113.46

> Review period: Closed June 23 at 2,122.97 points     Period Change: -1.7%

For Amman stock prices in June there seemed no end in sight for the slide that started at the onset of 2011. The market index has already given away 10.6% in 2011 through June 23 and stocks are yet to recover from the ‘Arab Spring’- driven declines earlier in the year. Continued political uncertainty, as well as unrest in neighboring Syria pose additional risks for all stocks.  However, the banking sector has generally shown considerable resilience with only a 4.7% decline year-to-date, including 1.4% in June.

Abu Dhabi Exchange  

Current year high: 2,833.09                Current year low: 2,471.70

>  Review period: Closed June 23 at 2,716.72 points     Period Change: +2.94%

Stocks on the ADX roared in June to a new 2011 high of 2,775 points on investors’ high expectations ahead of a decision by global index provider MSCI to advance the UAE from “Frontier Markets” to “Emerging Markets” status. However, stocks weakened at the end of the review period when MSCI postponed the decision for six months. The ADX benchmark retained a flat record for the year through June 23 and posted solid gains for the month, as Etisalat leapt 7.8%. Year-to-date gains of 6.8% for banking stocks have been the market’s saving grace.

Dubai FM  

Current year high: 1,781.92                Current year low: 1,352.24

>  Review period: Closed June 23 at 1537.48 points     Period Change: -1.44%

Although the DFM index stumbled on MSCI’s decision to delay a possible upgrade to UAE’s bourses, stocks had little to lose. By June 23 the market was already down 5.7% in 2011 on expectations of further losses at real estate and construction companies and despite a year-to-date gain of 5.7% in banking stocks, with a nice top up of 2.4% in June. Market cap leader Emirates NBD booked a handsome gain of 48.6% during the first half of the year, while real estate behemoth Emaar Properties was down 13.2%, including 2.2% in June.

Kuwait SE  

Current year high: 7,129.30                Current year low: 6,134.60

>  Review period: Closed June 23 at 6,263.9 points     Period Change: -1.8%

Missing positive cues and dropping to thin volumes, Kuwaiti stocks slid further down the May slope at the onset of the summer low trading season. Kuwaitis go on vacation this year with almost 10% of their equity investments scrapped during the first six months. More ominously, the banking sector continued its steady decline, reinforced by Moody’s downgrade of National Bank of Kuwait’s credit ratings on Egypt exposure and real estate risks; the sector is 8% in the red for the year through June 23.

Saudi Arabia SE  

Current year high: 6,788.42                Current year low: 5,323.27

>  Review period: Closed June 22 at 6,449.49 points     Period Change: -4.26%

Tadawul’s stock activity was vibrant in June, backed by plentiful government loans and corporate Sukuks, including a massive 25-year $13.6 billion soft loan approved by the government for Saudi Electricity Company. However, real estate and banking stocks appeared to be off for an early stint of Red Sea vacationing, diving 8% and 4.9% respectively during our June review period. As a result, Tadawul’s year-to-date performance sank to -2.6% by June, ending Saudi’s earlier MENA exchange leadership.

Muscat SM  

Current year high: 7,027.32                Current year low: 5,952.60

>  Review period: Closed June 23 at 6,003.82 points     Period Change: -0.07%

June’s mood swings are not unusual on the GCC’s smallest exchange. Following an optimistic Bank of America Merrill Lynch report, foreign investors flooded blue chip stocks hit by significant May declines. However, it appeared domestic investors were either not swayed or had defected to summer activities as the market gave back earlier gains and volumes thinned out. Investors may be saving up for the three IPOs scheduled for the fourth quarter, or are not hurrying into a market down 11.1% for the year and with few positive catalysts on the horizon.

Bahrain Bourse  

Current year high: 1,475.10                Current year low: 1,330.03

>  Review period: Closed June 23 at 1,338.61 points     Period Change: -0.6%

As Bahraini courts were inking new life sentences for opposition members in June, the market index was inking a seven-year low, followed by a short-lived uptick. Despite continuing protests and the uncertain outlook for the upcoming national dialogue, the market has held up relatively well given the circumstances, falling 6.5% in 2011 through June 23. The key banking sector only gave up 3.7% during the first six months, with the market’s largest traded stock Ahli United Bank actually adding 1.4% year-to-date, compared to a 12.5% dive at Batelco.

Qatar SE  

Current year high: 9,242.63                Current year low: 6,766.80

>  Review period: Closed June 23 at 8,214.35 points     Period Change: -1.92%

It is telling when Qatar’s central bank’s announcement that real GDP may grow 19% in 2011 does not move markets while MSCI’s decision to delay the decision on Qatar’s upgrade sparks a downturn. But this internationally focused exchange can still cheer foreign activities by Qatari companies, including Diar’s recently-approved multi-billion dollar Chelsea Barracks project in London. The market index on June 23 closed down 5.4% year-to-date, ironically one of the better showings among MENA exchanges.

Tunis SE  

Current year high: 5,681.39                Current year low: 4,058.53

>  Review period: Closed June 23 at 4,254.12 points     Period Change: +3.23%

With Ben Ali sentenced in absentia for 35 years, the pre-crisis appeal of Tunisian stocks has returned. Business delegations from across the globe flocked into the country as political parties agreed to postpone elections until October. The market still has a long way to go before it recovers the 16.7% losses in 2011 through June 23, but the upward trend appears to be accelerating; the Tunindex registered the highest June return in the MENA region reviewed here. Meanwhile, Banque de Tunisie remained anchored, declining a relatively modest 5.3% during the first six months.

Casablanca SE  

Current year high: 13,397.47              Current year low: 11,499.64

Casablanca stocks witnessed a precipitous decline in June after the youth movement called for a boycott of the king’s July 1 reform referendum. The MENA region’s June laggard has compiled an 8% loss in 2011 through June 23, with market-cap billionaire Maroc Télécom hitting a multi-year low during the month. Banking stocks have tracked the market so far in 2011, with an 8.1% decline, while the largest bank by market cap, Attijariwafa Bank, shed 9.7% during the first six months.

Egypt SE  

Current year high: 7,210.00                Current year low: 4,878.00

>  Review period:  Closed June 23 at 5,479.74 points     Period Change: -0.79%

Since touching the year’s low in early May, EGX stocks have gained 12.3% through June 23, reflecting optimism for a recovery in tourism and real estate. Although the market is down 23.3% in 2011 to date, heavyweight Orascom Construction is only 4.5% in the red after post-Mubarak gains of 20%. Commercial International Bank and Telecom Egypt investors have not been as fortunate, with the two stocks losing 17.7% and 5% respectively since trading resumed in March.

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Special Report

Fady Chams

by Executive Editors
written by Executive Editors

After starting out on the Cannes interior design circuit, Prospect Design International’s Managing Director, Fady Chams set up the second branch of the boutique design firm in Dubai in 2005. The firm’s work has been ogled by the eyes of the jet set, with a portfolio that includes the VIP Room in Saint Tropez, to world-famous Movida and Maddox in London, to the iconic art deco Sass Café in Monaco. Closer to home, Prospect left their mark on Beirut’s La Plage beach and Palais nightclub. Though the firm has worked on high-end projects from Casa Blanca to Kazakhstan, the Middle East’s highly hospitable climate remains the focus for their well-secured niche within the interior furnishings market.

  • How did you become a high-profile interior design company so quickly, designing interiors of exclusive high-end clubs and restaurants in Monaco, London, France, and the like?

My brother Sami, after having worked with Ralph Lauren Interiors and many other brands in the south of France, set up Prospect Design in Cannes in 1996. Several friends asked him to design restaurant interiors, which became very successful, and we became specialists in that domain of hospitality design. We were thinking to open Prospect Design in Beirut but security and investment-related factors didn’t allow us to do that.

  • Do you position yourself as designers in the luxury segment?

Not necessarily. We do high-end and we can provide a mid-end French classical Provence house, which is rich in natural materials, [such as] French antique wood, without having necessarily the highest technology and the expensive marble and so on.

  • Wasn’t Palais the biggest budget project in hospitality at the time?

No, not at all. To tell you, it was approximately half a million dollars, which is acceptable when you consider they already had the services, electrical, mechanical, air conditioning and so on. There is big competition in Beirut, especially for [design in] hospitality. Now, we have a lot of private clients for residences… and hope to design a boutique hotel but that is all related to the political and security situation.

  • When you compare the market for luxury hospitality design in Beirut with the regional market, do you see major differences?

In Beirut there are no limits compared to the rest of the Middle East. You can open a restaurant and club wherever you want and you are allowed to sell alcohol and open from very early until very late. In Dubai, [if you are a restaurant that sells alcohol] you have to be in a hotel, which affects our design.

  • What makes it so demanding to work on a luxury restaurant?

You cannot just design a very nice restaurant [based purely on aesthetics]. When it comes to operations you have a lot of problems with the lighting, the seating or the circulation around the tables. Also, going for a contemporary style or a classical style will definitely last much longer than something futuristic with a lot of LED lighting and changing colors.

  • Did the economic downturn impact your business?

Yes and no. Back in 2008, some clients started to freeze their spending. But we do not have a lot of overhead… Before the crisis in Dubai, we were approached by maybe 20 people a week; 90 percent of them were…wasting our time. Now, if we get approached by four clients, three of them are very serious and have the funds.

  • What was the most expensive project you ever worked on?

There were some private residences… that included an indoor swimming pool, a nightclub, a basement tennis court, you name it. In hospitality, it is a business with projections and a feasibility study and goals to meet. They don’t care if I put a gold-plated part in the ceiling or something that looks like a gold-plated part. But the private client would want gold-plated.

  • How did your strategy develop to combine luxury items with mid-range items in your designs of hospitality spaces?

It comes naturally since in most projects no one has an open budget; we are therefore quite skilled in mixing-and-matching a very expensive sofa with a less expensive table and a chandelier that is not a Swarovski one… to create a unique design. If you want a wall covering, I can find you five similar coverings at very different prices.

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Special Report

The end of Excuses

by Executive Editors
written by Executive Editors

Exactly five months to the day that Lebanon’s last cabinet fell, a new one was formed last month on June 12. The abrupt formation after months of impasse took many onlookers by surprise and the reasons for the long-awaited but little-expected conclusion will no doubt continue to be debated for some time to come. Was it the insistence of Hezbollah to come to terms on how to split the pie, Prime Minister Mikati’s realization that he could not wait for the outcome of the Syrian uprising to see which side he would take, or merely that the daily loss of credibility that came with being unable to form a cabinet of supposedly ‘one color’ was no longer acceptable?

In any case, the Lebanese will have to play the cards they dealt themselves the last time they went to the ballot boxes. Let us not forget that we choose the MPs who voted in the last cabinet, and who chose Mikati to form this one; talking about coups is little more than crying over spilt and rotten milk. But, to see this government and its organs for what they are, and what they can realistically achieve, some deep reflection need occur.

The first order of business is a revision of our political definitions.

In 2005, between the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and our Syrian neighbors kindly withdrawing their army from our lands, we divided ourselves into two seemingly equal and persistently fractious parts. What may have been an apt way to represent the diverging points of view that March should not continue to be the basis by which we see this new government; to do so is to fall into the same duplicitous trap appealing to one or the other of two opposing monolithic ideological constructions. 

Thanks largely to the ever-capricious Druze leader Walid Joumblatt, political movements March 14 and March 8 are now irrelevant semantic exercises. When you actually study the proposed public policies (where they exist) of the new cabinet’s de facto technical policymaking body, the Free Patriotic Movement, they do not differ greatly from the previous government’s policies.

Both advocate private sector participation in electricity and water; neither have real solutions for, or objections to the cartels they control in almost every sector of the economy — evident in the lack of interest in policies that would encourage entrepreneurship and erode the oligopolistic nepotism that sustains inflated pricing.

We should also be realistic about how much can be achieved when we continue to appoint ministers to our cabinets who have kept our economy at the mercy of cabals, affluent family networks and companies. It is not about how monochromatic your political palate may be, but that the same structure will produce the same results.

However, for the first time in a long time in Lebanon, today we have the semblance of a normal political landscape — a government and an opposition — and that is something we should seek to maintain. What the post-Syrian occupation period has taught us is that national unity governments do not work for two very simple reasons: ties to foreign actors trump nationalism and unity of purpose does not exist.

This time, the cabinet cannot point across the table as easily as it has in the past and say things are not getting done because “they don’t let us.” Even if there is sedition in the ranks — and we should expect some given the amount of bickering we have already seen from those supposedly on the same side — this should not delay the key policy decisions that need to be made from now until the 2013 elections.

The measure of this cabinet will be whether it can make decisions, for good or for ill, rather than crumbling from within. The cabinet’s first achievement — the drafting of a policy statement — should be viewed as little more than a publicity stunt; in practice, policy statements fail to represent anything the population can hold a government accountable for (just look at the last one for a case in point).

The next step will likely be to purge the ministries of opposition supporters in “Grade 1” posts and below. Such action is normal in any democratic society — not a “confrontation” as the opposition paints it — and allows the opposition to criticize and appeal to the population while washing their hands of any blame for stalling the implementation of policies from within. It seems clear at this point that the government will not use the courts to go after members of the opposition, most likely in order to keep their own skeletons safely out of sight. Therefore, the only thing that a true opposition would have to fear is if something were to be accomplished and the government received credit.

This will not be easy to come by. Lebanon’s problems are so deeply engrained in the sectarian and administrative system that resolving them will need to confront the very core of the status quo. We should not kid ourselves into thinking that in the span of roughly two and a half years that will happen. But what we can hope for is that a policy framework is implemented so that reform can begin to take place. Beyond geopolitics and the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, the country’s domestic problems need addressing, regardless of which camp takes them on. The onus is on the new cabinet. In anticipation of the direction this government’s policies may take, Executive lays out the framework for what needs to be done.

Lebanon’s problems are so deeply engrained that resolving them will need to confront the very core of the status quo

The Economy

The first order of business will be to make sure that purchasing power remains intact. The Lebanese lira cannot be allowed to devaluate, and that means confidence must be maintained. Executive does not agree with all the policies of the central bank, nor does it support in principle the idea that government officials should hold their positions for close to two decades. However, Riad Salameh, the current central bank governor, has maintained a stable currency, managed several major crises — including the financial crisis and the Lebanese Canadian Bank debacle — enjoys widespread political support and, whether it is based on reality or perception, symbolizes confidence in the market.

His term needs to be renewed, but it should be done so in accordance with legal norms and not ‘moving decrees’ or other so-called legal instruments that skew the already very blurry lines between the executive and the legislative bodies of government.

If the new government is not sworn in by the time the governor’s term is up, there is a mechanism whereby power can pass to his vice governors until the cabinet gets its act together, drafts its trivial policy statement, receives a vote of confidence and votes him back into office. At that point, and only at that point, should he be reinstated.

Once this occurs, the central bank needs to be clear about its policies and how much of the debt it is holding, and willing to hold. The debt cannot be monetized further, nor can the central bank continue to step in to be a market-maker whenever the commercial banks do not feel like pitching in. The logic of debt markets maintains that there is a price to pay for inefficiency and bad policies. Eventually, the government has to be forced to make tough decisions, like those occurring in Greece. The longer we wait, the worse it will eventually become in the end.

It is time for a New Deal à la Libanaise between the state and the commercial banks. We accept that if not for them we would have no stability in our money markets, and this would have a disastrous effect on our economy. But at this point, the interest the government pays to the banks is just keeping the debt cycle running, making the government even more ineffective, and increasing the risk for everyone further down the line.

A real renegotiation, not a ‘Paris IV’, between the banks and their largest obligator is in order now that there is a government in place that should be able to make decisions and follow on through, and there is no better person to negotiate this deal than Salameh himself. As fewer loans go to the government, more should go to the private sector in order to drive the engine that generates fair tax revenues to fund this debt restructuring.

We are not advocating that our industries be privatized, as is being suggested to our Mediterranean cousins by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. Doing so would require a clear and transparent strategy and a government elected with a mandate — not one that emerged from political collapse. It would require an adequate amount of competition. The scope of service coverage would also need to be ascertained, and that cannot happen when we do not know how many people need to be served, much less what their consumption is. Any privatization would require faith in the institutions that would oversee it, and this is still far off at best.

In the meantime, liberalizing industries such as electricity, water, air transport and telecommunications without selling the state’s assets needs to occur in order to build the platform needed to grow out of the present slump, and to create enough jobs to keep the population from emigrating.

It is unacceptable that we do not have accurate or timely readings of basic economic and social indicators

Concensus on the census

In order to plan for these reforms we will need to know exactly where we stand. It is no longer acceptable that we do not have accurate or timely readings of basic economic and social indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, poverty, diseases or even the country’s population. The taboo subject of conducting a simple census must be broached and resolved by this government, with questions of sect removed. An accurate reading of residents’ ages, incomes and other essential population statistics are needed before any government can claim it has a public policy. Once this government knows how many people it will need to serve, it can start planning to do so in a realistic and targeted manner. The starting point will be to use what already exists in terms of public policy plans, then improve and implement them.

Public services, taxes and revenue

The electricity plan passed by the last cabinet should be used as the basis for progress in the sector, which must be unbundled into production, transmission and distribution as planned but without its nepotistic elements. Under the current judiciary and regulatory frameworks, private sector participation in the production and distribution of energy will only result in sectarian overlords exercising more control over local populations through distribution contracts and control over production. That is why the electricity law — which establishes an independent regulator —  and others, such as the public private partnership law, need to be enacted and implemented by this government.

The only good thing about the energy shortfall is that there is room to grow in the right direction. Alternative energies such as solar, wind and waste recycling need to be transformed from marketing buzzwords to tangible and transparent industries run by innovators, not sects. If the banks are so keen on ‘going green’, than this is the first energy segment they should fund.

There is no room for waste: all our natural resources must be employed if we are to progress. Our rivers and our seas cannot continue to be dumping grounds for our sewage in a region where water is fast becoming the scarcest resource around. The complications and costs associated with building dams on our perforated geology can only be overcome if we integrate power and water as two industries that are, by force of nature, inextricably linked. Doing so will also allow us to power the plants we need to treat our water so that we do not continue to irrigate our crops with sewage that is creating untold health consequences for the population.

Of course, to build those plants and dams we will need a constant flow of cash and that can only come from one place: the people. Continuing to rely on the debt markets may be an easier and more politically prudent option, but a fair and efficient tax regime is the only way we will ever achieve a just and sustainable solution to our cash flow problem. It is time to wake up to the reality that taxes and fees for public services will need to rise or we will never be able to reform them. This will have to happen gradually for political, technical and social reasons but this government will have to be honest with itself and the people that the days of paying and receiving next to nothing in regards to essential public services are over.

It is simply unfair and unproductive to tax the rich and the poor indirectly through value added tax and excise taxes, while making excuses about a lack of infrastructure to impose or collect progressive and direct income taxes. People need to feel like they are paying for government in order to get angry enough to hold it accountable when it squanders their money. The culture of indirect taxes that has taken hold of this country has separated the people from their government while putting holes in their pockets.

As such, this government cannot continue to view telecommunications as a cash cow for the country. An indirect tax rate of 58 percent on phone bills is not a proper way to fund a government. Instead, the current telecommunications law needs to be applied, in full, and the private sector needs to be allowed to participate on an equal footing with the public sector. If there are parts of the law that need to be amended it can be done through a legal process. The need for such amendments should not be used as an excuse to skirt the obligation of implementing a law that comes from the elected representatives of the people.

With such reform, taxes in the sector could be shifted from being a burden on the consumer to a cost of doing business for private companies that compete against each other, and in so doing lower prices and provide more far-reaching services. The people, not the politicians and their companies, should get something out of privatization if it occurs. There is nothing wrong with a public share of the telecom industry — the same way there is nothing wrong with a private share — so long as the sector works for the people and their businesses and not for the interests of the zaims.

Once these basic elements of a modern economy are in place, the jobs needed to stem the brain drain will appear. But that will not be enough. The most elemental economic responsibility of any government is to create decent work for all citizens. This cannot be done without a national strategy for job creation from school to the workplace. That strategy must be as realistic as our expectations are for this government. Not everyone can be an employee in a high-value knowledge based industry. Some will need to be employed in vocational and industrial jobs, which are no less meaningful or important to the progress of the country.

The first element of that national strategy will need to involve a break with old habits. The government cannot keep funneling the poor into the army and the security services. It must create viable alternatives.

Similarly, qualified people should no longer be discouraged from working in the public sector. Our ministries and administrations are not tools for this government to practice patronage and a sectarian division of favors for votes. This government must formulate a strategy for civil service reform that is fair to those who have dedicated their lives to serve the nation and those who suffer from the lack of services.

The unqualified need to be trained and the incompetent need to go to make room for those who can do the job and deserve their position. Only then may we rightfully be able to expect a decent level of service from our public institutions.

People need to feel like they are paying for government in order to get angry enough to hold it accountable

The courts and corruption

Without question, these national strategies will mean nothing if they are not implemented and if the government is not held accountable. Despite suggestions to the contrary, it is not up to ministers whether or not they apply the laws.

The vote of confidence they receive from the Parliament obliges them to abide by the will of the people. The reason they have not done so, or have done so selectively, is the judiciary is so inefficient and politicized that we must rely on international tribunals to take up Lebanese affairs.

In order to address the problems of a judiciary that is anything but just, combating corruption must be a priority. The basic institutions for combating corruption have consistently been ignored by every post-civil war government to date, barring the implementation of one now-defunct presidential complaints office and a committee no longer in place.

Basic institutions, such as a national anti-corruption body and an ombudsman office, are essential, but so too is the reform of the current oversight bodies such as the Court of Accounts, the Civil Service Board and the Central Inspection Board. As long as these institutions and their budgets are assigned and overseen by the Prime Minister’s office they remain vulnerable to coercion and manipulation.

Learning to stand

It is naïve to think that all these basic elements of responsible government will be established by a cabinet that is manned and controlled by ex-warlords and businessmen with vested interests. But we should at least expect be moving in the right direction.

What many do not realize is that the larger issues — Hezbollah’s weapons, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and sectarianism as a whole — are linked to a dysfunctional economy and government. A small country constantly subjected to barrages of local and international interests will struggle to protecting its national interests. But some geographically susceptible countries — like Singapore and Switzerland — have protected themselves by creating a strong and sustainable economy, which they use to shield against outside political manipulation.

Whether we can achieve such a reality will depend on how much the Lebanese are willing to accept the excuses that will, in all likelihood, arise when the tough decisions need to be made. As with the last government, it is entirely possible that this new government will attempt to hide behind concocted alibis and scapegoats to justify the continued ineptitude of the Lebanese state.

But before jumping to criticism, the new government is entitled to an opportunity to prove itself — give them a chance to do their job. And if they do not, at least we now know, without doubt, who to hold accountable, because there are no excuses left.

The larger issues – Hezbollah’s weapons, the STL and sectarianism as a whole – are linked to a dysfunctional economy and government

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