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Real estateSpecial Report

Under destruction

by Executive Editors April 3, 2011
written by Executive Editors

Beirut’s architectural heritage is disappearing at an alarming rate due to skyrocketing land prices, shortsighted zoning, a lack of urban planning, a limited availability of empty plots and a dearth of government policy.

Illegal demolitions and efforts to destroy a house gradually over time are only marginally penalized while building codes and zoning laws simply add incentive to demolish. As a result, many fear that Beirut — once a glamourous destination oozing charm for the cosmopolitan jet set — is well on its way to becoming a chaotic city of shadowed streets and skyscrapers, lacking a congruent sense of history and identity.

The Ministry of Culture has been trying to find a solution for nearly a decade, but while some ground has been gained, far more has been lost. A 2007 draft law that merged the urgent need to preserve architectural heritage with private property interests was formed over the course of several years of intensive study, but it remains stalled in parliament while the situation on the street is fast deteriorating. As law-makers fail to grasp the important link between heritage and national identity, tourism, education and the economy, the skyline surges ever upward during a period of rapid urban growth.

The only legislation in Lebanon designed to protect the country’s heritage is severely outdated. The 1933 heritage preservation law, inherited from the French mandate era, only addresses structures constructed before 1700, which excludes Beirut’s mansions and villas built during the French mandate and Ottoman era, as well as its more contemporary architectural gems. A survey conducted in Clemenceau just 10 months ago for a private client by architectural urban planning consultancy group URBI revealed that approximately 50 percent of the area’s historical buildings are gone — the definition of ‘historical’ is difficult to pin down, but generally it applies to buildings ‘relevant to the Lebanese collective memory.’

A public record of how many buildings still remain across Beirut is not available, but of the 1,016 heritage buildings classified by a government study in 1995, experts estimate that 250 to 300 are left.

Many activists have lost hope, but there are still a few passionate pragmatists who believe it is possible to find a solution that serves both private and public interests. To formulate a solution that honors both sides of the divide requires understanding of how the city reached its present point, whose interests are at stake and how cultural heritage can be preserved in a way that considers private property rights and the progress of the economy.

[You can] make your profit off of the historical character of the district rather than a sea view

FAR too far

“When you want to protect an area, typically you set the FAR [floor-to-area ratio] equal to existing buildings, or less,” said Habib Debs, owner of URBI, an architectural and urban planning consultancy. “In Beirut, it is too late to do that.” FAR is at the heart of Beirut’s heritage problem. It determines exactly how much is allowed be built on a plot in a specific area. A FAR ratio of 1 means that on a plot size of 1,000 square meters (sqm), a developer could build one floor over the full surface of the land, two floors of 500 sqm each if only 50 percent of the plot were developed, and so on. FAR determines how high the exploitation factor is, and this determines the land’s market value.

Typically, in most cities of the world that have historic quarters, the FAR is set between 0.5 and 2. In Cairo and Istanbul, as in Paris and other European cities with historic quarters to preserve, the FAR is low in the old center and rises toward the periphery, concentrating towers in specific areas. In American cities that were built on flat open lands, the opposite is true. FAR is set high in the center and low at the periphery.

In the 1930’s, the French mandate set rules governing street alignment and the maximum height of buildings allowed in both Damascus and Beirut. The rules followed a model of urban planning common in countries across Europe, North Africa and the Mediterranean Middle East, following a deliberate strategy to prevent tall buildings from overshadowing a city’s historical areas.

The critical point where Lebanon’s urban planning went disastrously wrong was in the 1950’s, when the public authority opted to change the regulations inherited from the French mandate era. Michel Ecochard, a Chicago-educated urban planner, arbitrarily changed the zoning to follow the model of an American city. Ignoring Lebanon’s rich past and the fact that American cities rarely have low-level historical centers to respect, this modification set Beirut off on an illogical path that didn’t fully realize itself until the city’s developers began having the capital, knowledge and technology to build ‘up.’

Perhaps somewhat symbolically, the first two towers to grace Beirut, Burj al Murr and Burj Rizk, were both used as platforms for snipers firing onto the city throughout the civil war.

After the war, developers began merging plots to maximize the building height and profits. This new strategy resulted in higher towers with luxurious sea views. “We tried to point out that this is not the only strategy that makes a good profit,” said URBI’s Debs. “In a historic area, instead of merging plots to build high, you can construct a lower building with a wider surface area on each plot and make your profit off of the historical character of the district rather than a sea view that can only be guaranteed until the next tower pops up,” he added.

Land prices around the world are usually higher in heritage areas, making historic property a valuable resource. Ironically, in a city that had so many buildings spanning numerous architectural periods, their destruction has erased not only social, educational and cultural assets, but economic ones as well.

In 1995, Minister of Culture Michel Edde put together three commissions aimed at solving the heritage dilemma by studying different conservation aspects: economic, legal and architectural. At his request, a protection list of historical buildings was drafted. In all, 1,016 heritage buildings were counted, but only about 500 were kept on the list, because the aim of the study was to preserve heritage quarters, where there were clusters of historical buildings rather than isolated ones. After Edde’s term, the initiative fell off the rails. Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri bowed to private sector pressure and requested the list of buildings be reduced by half.

When the architectural commission, which had continued working under its own will, refused to revise the list on principle, the private company Khatib & Alami was commissioned to the task in 1998. The resulting study whittled the list down to 459 buildings; this remains a compass for the Ministry of Culture until today. A 1999 directive based on the study classified buildings according to a letter system of A, B, C, D and E, with “A” buildings being the most untouchable due to their high heritage value, and “D” and “E” buildings being easy to remove from the list and demolish. The list of buildings has never officially been made public.

Throughout the decades, Beirut’s zoning was modified numerous times. “Each time it was modified to allow more construction, more density, higher FAR… and it was always in the interest of the developers, owners and investors and never in the interest of the common good,” said Debs.

The building code was modified again as recently as 2005, resulting in a 20 to 25 percent increase in FAR, according to the estimations of Fadlallah Dagher, a renowned Lebanese architect and a long-time advocate for architectural heritage preservation. Although the change was presented as a way to build thicker walls for insulation and wider stairwells and elevators, the visible result on the market since 2005 shows markedly larger and taller buildings.

“[The change to the building code] was voted on by Parliament, but it was unofficially written by developers,” said Dagher. “We have a lot of politicians who deal in development, and this is key to understanding why, for more than 15 years, the government has shown no real interest in [creating] a master plan for the city,” he added. Ostensibly, that is why Parliament’s bi-partisan finance and budget committee has shot down a tax on vacant properties and has yet to approve increases in proposed capital gains and sales taxes on property.

 It does not help matters that successive cabinets  have not appointed a full-time head of the Director General of Urbanism (DGU) since 2006. Acting directors are appointed by ministers, and are thus accountable only to their boss and not to the general public.

Recent attempts to reign in zoning over specific areas, such as Gemmayze, have thus predictably failed. The DGU commissioned a study of Gemmayze in 2005 to survey the quarter’s remaining heritage buildings and determine what type of urban planning to apply to the area. Claiming a lack of funds, the DGU never commissioned a private company to execute the study. A circular that aimed at setting building heights to twice the width of the street, enforcing a building’s required distance from the sidewalk and forbidding plot merging was issued but never enforced. Building permits continue to be granted in Gemmayze and towers continue to rise, casting long shadows over the quarter’s future.

“[Property owners] beg for advice on how to get their building de-listed, or to simply just get rid of it”

A web of interests

Many developers and property owners in Beirut do not see in terms of houses but in terms of land. Given that high FARs of 4 and 5 are common in historic areas such as Gemmayze, Ashrafieh, Ain El Mreisseh, Zoqaq El Blat and Clemenceau, a heritage house simply gets in the way for most property owners.

“They regret having a palace, but I can understand them,” said Guillaume Boudisseau, a consultant at RAMCO Real Estate Advisers. “Regardless of how beautiful it may be, it does not translate into any tangible economic value.”

As a real estate consultant, he has seen many property owners who are intent on selling their plot at the same price per square meter as the nearest plot that stands empty. “I tell them that they have to adjust their price to the reality of having a house on it,” Boudisseau said, “but they insist on having an estimate of the empty land value; they beg for advice on how to get their building de-listed, or to simply just get rid of it.”

Some owners also grapple with old tenants paying frozen pre-1975 rent prices as a result of another policy quagmire, the 1992 Rent Act, which allows tenants to pay pre-Civil War prices on leases signed before 1975. Given next-to-nothing rents, buildings often fall into disrepair as landlords lack funds or the incentive to maintain their assets. Because owners cannot evict tenants without lengthy and costly legal proceedings, a developer who is willing to take this burden off their hands by buying the building and land is a dream come true.

For tenants, of course, it is more like a nightmare. Their sole recourse is to petition for the Ministry of Culture to intervene if the building is of any arguable historical or cultural value. As private property rights are prioritized over the public use of land in Lebanon, owners have the right to demand that the government compensate them should it rule that they cannot demolish their house to make a hefty profit like their neighbor.

Owners who wish to maintain their houses also face disincentives. Steep inheritance taxes make an old house a heavy burden to cast on one’s family. It is not even possible to donate the structure freely, as donations of private property are highly taxed. There are also licensing fees for renovation and municipal taxes to pay. Regardless of any good intentions, owners do not have preservation options that make financial sense. Instead of being rewarded for having a classified heritage house that is of great value to the nation’s culture and identity, they are penalized.

As for developers, increasing land values also decrease incentives for preservation. “Six or seven years ago it was still possible to buy an old building at $700 to $800 per square meter, renovate it up to modern standards for about $1,000 per square meter and then sell it off at a substantial profit,” said Karim Bassil, founder of BREI real estate developers. “Now, you can’t buy something historical for less than $2,000 to $2,500 per square meter, making pure renovation work financially illogical.”

Other developers argue that there is no clarity concerning heritage. “They keep on changing the policies and procedures,” said Housam Batal, owner of Premium Properties. Claiming to be unaware of the public outrage his company provoked when it demolished two art deco houses — one of which belonged to painter Aida Marini, famous for her renderings of Beirut during its golden age — to build the Sursock Yards, Batal insisted that he had no idea the buildings were of any cultural value. “They were two ugly, concrete buildings. The government should define specific elements and standards of ‘heritage’ so that we know what constitutes heritage and what does not,” he said. “We are demanding this as developers.”

While many developers frequently argue that because the Khatib & Alami study is not public there are no official guidelines for determining whether a house is classified or not before they purchase the lot, the Ministry of Culture points out that if it were to release the study listing classified houses, it could endanger many buildings; those listed in the “D” and “E” categories can be easily de-classified. Also, it is not difficult to find out if the building is classified or not. “They can always ask the Ministry of Culture… and then they will know the answer,” said caretaker Minister of Culture Salim Warde. 

On the municipal level, recent efforts have been made to cooperate with the Ministry of Culture on demolition permits and to purchase some of the city’s old houses. However, neither the municipality nor the ministry has sufficient funds to buy a large enough number of buildings to make a real impact.

The municipality did manage to save the 19th century mansions belonging to Lebanese luminaries Fayrouz and Bechara El-Khoury — both in Zoqaq El Blat — but two further houses of immense heritage value near Burj al Murr remain “out of budget,” according to Bouchra Itani, chairwoman of the municipality’s new Cultural Heritage Commission that was founded last year.

Although the Commission’s five members — described by Itani as a computer engineer, lawyer, businessman, writer and information technology engineer — are municipality staff, Itani hopes that a commission can be formed in the near future that includes heritage experts and members of cultural movements. “The municipality does not have enough resources for now,” Itani said. “And we cannot stop people from exercising their right to build as long as they are within the law.”

Legal limbo

To date, Lebanon is the only country in the Arab world without a modern heritage preservation law, even though its adoption is just a vote away. The first draft law arrived in Parliament four years ago, with an aim to fairly address the interests of all stakeholders. Proposed by former Minister of Culture Tarek Mitri in 2007 after carrying out extensive case studies, the draft law carefully outlined three major forms of incentive for architectural heritage preservation: compensation, fiscal measures and state support. The law detailed solutions to balance the interests of all stakeholders, including the private sector.

In the draft law’s present form, compensation to owners is dealt with through a method known as the transfer of development rights (TDR). Because land without a heritage structure on it has a high value in the market, TDR would allow the owner to transfer, or sell, 75 percent of the current value of the built-up area he theoretically could build on his land to a developer in another area. The developer would be able to add these additional square meters to his building, beyond the zoning limit to increase his FAR. This mechanism — which has been applied with success in Europe to save historical areas and in the US to create value for depressed areas — allows the owner to benefit financially from selling the virtual built-up area on his lot without losing the house or the property.

To provide incentive to renovate the house, possible fiscal measures in the law include a waiver of inheritance and rent taxes and a fixed period of exemption from municipal and building taxes. Renovation licenses would be waived, and a renovation fund set up by the government would be available to assist owners. Two percent of licensing fees for construction would be funneled back into the fund, with a new committee appointed to direct renovations.

The law regroups buildings by area, with an intention to preserve not individual buildings, but heritage clusters.

The law ran into political trouble, however, and was among 74 proposed pieces of legislation during the period between 2006 and 2008 that were quashed when Speaker Nabih Berri refused to convene Parliament and considered any law that was proposed during the period the product of an illegitimate government.

Late in 2008, the Minister of Culture at the time, Tammam Salam, was contacted by Berri with an inquiry about what could be done to resolve a problem facing one of his partisans who had purchased a property with a classified house on it and wanted it demolished. Salam took the opportunity to explain the draft law to Berri.

On his own initiative, Berri proposed having a member of Parliament from his March 8 coalition extract and re-launch the law from the legislative branch; Salam secured then-Prime Minister Fouad Siniora’s agreement and MP Ali Hassan Khalil reintroduced the law in Parliament. When Salam finished his term, it was still being discussed. In 2011, the law is still sitting in Parliament, waiting to be voted on. Caretaker Minister of Culture Salim Warde worked steadily to get it approved, until the government collapsed this January.

“There are people who don’t want the law to be passed,” Warde admitted to Executive. “But the problem is that [it] is misunderstood. It’s very fair; of that I am certain.” According to Nabil De Freige, an MP in support of the legislation, “a lot of owners don’t want this law because they think they will lose money, but they are wrong. They don’t trust the government, but if [it] is applied as intended, it is a just law that represents the best interest of everyone,” he explained. “We are running out of time to save our heritage. This law is the only practical solution.”

As a successful businessman himself, Warde has worked hard to make the law as considerate of the private sector as it is of patrimony. He has prepared modifications to it that he said “will make [it] even more fair for everyone,” but declined to comment further.

Responding to the impending crisis on the ground while the draft law wallowed in Parliament, the Ministry of Culture under Salim Warde, together with the Ministry of Interior and in cooperation with the Municipality of Beirut, took a major step in 2009 in granting the Ministry of Culture the power to veto demolition permits. Warde told Executive that as of February 2011, the demolition of 84 buildings had been halted. The ministry also set up a hotline (01 612299) to report buildings under threat of demolition.

These moves initially prompted some anger from developers, but many are now either biding their time and hoping that the next minister will be more lenient, or finding ways of coping with the new regulation method by incorporating old buildings fully or partially into their architectural layout. If they cannot destroy it, they build around it or on top of it, as there is no master plan for the city outside of Solidere in downtown.

“No matter how financially attractive the alternatives, destroying the whole building was not an option for us”

Hybrid hopes

“There are no incentives to preserve an old, unlisted building; the easiest and cheapest thing to do in the past was to just knock it down,” said Karim Saade, General Manager of Greenstone, a local development firm that brands itself with “responsible development.”

 In 2005, Greenstone began preparing a pioneering project, L’Armonial, on a plot of land in Ashrafieh that had an art nouveau building on it from the 1920s. Feeling it was their responsibility to find a solution that allowed for its preservation rather than its destruction, they devised a plan to merge the “L”-shaped facade of the building with a modern tower.

Preserving the facade cost at least $1 million, but compared to the cost of the entire project Saade felt it reasonable. “No matter how financially attractive the alternatives, destroying the whole building was not an option for us,” he reaffirmed.

Today, due to the recent demolition freeze, other developers have begun seeing such hybrid alternatives as the only solution to being able to build anything at all. The Aya Tower project in Mar Mikhael by Har Properties is a clear example. The developer initially intended to create a modern tower after demolishing three historical buildings: the Cinema Vendome and two old houses. After the demolition of the cinema provoked the ire of both civil society and the media, Philippe Tabet, vice president and general manager of Har Properties, recalled that “Minister Warde requested another solution.”

This involved finding a way to integrate the first third of the two remaining buildings into the tower, which is easier and more cost effective to do than preserving only the facade. The other two-thirds would be demolished. To his surprise, Tabet discovered that incorporating the older structures into the project was not as difficult, nor as costly, as he had assumed. The architects found a solution in just three months, it was still possible to dig deep for multiple levels of underground parking, and additional costs were but a fraction of the overall funding of the project. With a little creative planning, a small part of the area’s heritage was preserved.

“A modern project puts the house on display,” said Ziad Akl, architect of the controversial MENA Capital Ibrahim Sursock Residences project that includes two towers rising up in what used to be the garden around the famous Villa Linda Sursock. Akl reasons that building a tower around the house is better than demolishing it completely. Nonetheless, the project provoked strong criticism.

In what is an apparent conflict of interest, Akl is also a member of the Superior Council of Urbanism (Conseil Superieur de l’Urbanisme), which serves the DGU and is meant to regulate urban planning, a practice that strives to preserve coherent urban form to promote order in city planning. In defense of the idea to build towers around heritage houses in low-rise areas, Akl said “an incredible sense of disorder is part of what makes Beirut what it is.”

Despite the fact that he is consulting with Ziad Akl on a heritage project on May Ziede Street, long-time proponent of heritage projects, MP Walid Joumblatt, described the Ibrahim Sursock Residences to Executive as “an aberration.”

“People are tempted by profit more than preservation,” he said. “We have a government that is made up of businessmen, capitalists and developers.”

‘Old new’ is the new new

However, profit and heritage are not mutually exclusive, and market forces are beginning to adjust to the shock caused by the sharp decrease in the supply of old houses over the last six years. “Nostalgia has been created by the destruction, and whenever something is disappearing, you want it,” said Saade. “The trend is on.”

In Greenstone’s project, living in the heritage part of L’Armonial will carry a price premium, with a first floor apartment in the old part of the building costing more than an apartment in the tower. Confirming a possible trend, real estate broker Century21 stated that since last year the agency has experienced a significant increase in calls from buyers interested in purchasing or renting historical houses that are either renovated or in need of light renovation.

“It seems to be a growing segment of demand,” confirmed Radwan Sleiman, marketing and sales manager with Century 21 property brokers. Other developments are also beginning to go up in what has been coined an “old new” style.

“There is a demand for this style,” said Tanya Naamani, Marketing and Sales Director of Noor Gardens, which is erecting a low-rise French mandate style building in Solidere with a prestigious British architect. “The type of living this architecture accommodates is more about family and community, which reflects Lebanese culture,” Naamani said. “It’s a lifestyle choice.”

On the other end of the spectrum is the solution to serve public demand for heritage through commercial space. Some companies such as IBL, Bank Audi and Quantum Group have chosen to renovate Beirut villas for use as corporate offices.

While such benevolent sponsors are hard to come by, Bassim Halaby, chairman and chief executive officer of the developer Benchmark, has another idea. “Investment in preserving these cultural landmarks could be incentivized through the concept of linkage,” he said.

 In the US, where Halaby worked for many years, large companies sponsor cultural venues, such as museums, and in return get their name added to the structure for a number of years. “If we sponsor turning an old house into a museum, for example, it becomes the Benchmark Museum,” he explained. “There is a deficiency of land being used for cultural spaces in Beirut, and this could help solve the problem.”

Although the private sector is often demonized by civil society groups, profit motives could help to protect heritage. “People need to feel ownership of something to take care of it,” said Halaby. “Think of the ‘mybar’ idea,” he suggested, referring to a recent project where shares, and profits, of a bar and restaurant are distributed among stakeholders who put down a minimum of $2,000. “Why not apply that to cultural real estate? Instead of investors, get shareholders.”

Following the mybar logic, an old house would be converted into a public venue such as a gallery, hotel, restaurant or bar, and any profit would be shared between investors. Tabet from Har Properties, now a supporter of preserving heritage in the city, took the idea a step further. “Why not create a REIT [Real Estate Investment Trust] for cultural heritage houses?” he suggested, as a REIT would sell on the stock market like a security. A REIT composed of a group of heritage houses used for commercial purposes is a radical idea, but possible applications of the idea are worthy of exploration.

“Nostalgia has been created by the destruction… The trend is on”

Power of the people

There is a prevailing misconception in the real estate sector that the Lebanese public does not care about heritage. But the truth is that while there is an emerging segment of affluent Lebanese who are willing to pay a high price to protect and own their own piece of the past, the majority of Lebanese demanding the preservation of their country’s cultural heritage are everyday people without the means to purchase a luxury apartment. These people wish to share Beirut’s cultural icons, and they are not to be overlooked as stakeholders in the issue.

“Despite the efforts of so many ministers of culture and the media, the law is not drawing enough public support to make it a priority,” said former Minister of Culture Tarek Mitri. “If parliamentarians know that a law is important to the people, they will prioritize it,” he added, urging civil society to press the issue. Although many citizens are frustrated with the powerful reach of certain people in the private sector to block political action on issues of national concern, the past does provide a glimpse of civil society’s potential to make a difference.

In the 1990s the Association for Protecting Natural Sites and Old Buildings, commonly known as APSAD (L’Association pour la Protection des Sites et Anciennes Demeures), managed to stop the complete destruction of Beirut’s old downtown. “They destroyed 90 percent of the historical buildings in the city center and restored only 10 percent, after pressure from civil society,” said Lady Yvonne Sursock Cochrane, founder of APSAD.

The group reached out internationally to gain support for stopping the destruction of Beirut’s historical center.

“As a result of our efforts, a German film crew came and made a shocking documentary about the destruction of heritage that Solidere was doing, and [Rafiq] Hariri was not pleased with the negative publicity,” Cochrane said. According to her account, the media coverage is what prompted Hariri to preserve the 10 percent of historical buildings remaining in the Beirut Central District at that time. “He did a book about the preserved buildings, “Beirut Reborn.” He sent me a personal copy, with a note, ‘Are you happy now?’” she recalled.

In 2006, civil society activists protested 10 new tower projects in the area of Gemmayze. They formed a petition and collected 5,000 signatures, which Mitri presented to then-Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who blocked the permits to build. Gemmayze was to be put under study to decide the type of development to be permitted from an urban planning perspective. Unfortunately, the July 2006 War broke the rhythm of the civil society effort, causing it to fail. Naturally, the war shifted civil society priorities to larger humanitarian issues, and the tower permits were signed once the attention had been turned elsewhere.

Today, new civil society groups are sprouting up in the city to protest the destruction of heritage. Save Beirut Heritage and the Association for the Protection of the Lebanese Heritage have been founded over the last year and a half and are collaborating with each other, using social media like Facebook and Youtube to reach out to supporters.

“There needs to be a more organized effort at staging civil actions that express the people’s disapproval of what is happening,” said BREI’s Bassil, who is happy to see so many young people interested in the issue, but is still waiting to see a professional movement that reaches effectively across all generations.

APSAD’s Sursock-Cochrane is concerned that the new groups “are not organized enough,” but she has invested her hopes in the stamina of the young generation to carry the issue forward in what she strongly suggests should be a united front. “The problem is that if each one wants to be the head of a small organization, there are too many… and the power is divided,” she said. “If everyone would work together, we could do more.”

According to Warde, even if he does not retain his post at the ministry after the formation of a new government, he will not stop trying to protect heritage buildings and applying pressure for new and effective legislation. “This momentum is reaching the masses,” he said. “I believe civil action can make a change. Whether I am in the ministry or not, I will continue this fight.”

With a logical law ready and waiting in Parliament, civil society must organize and push for a vote and, should it pass, its proper implementation. However, given the lessons of the past, turbulent political circumstances make vigilance all the more necessary.

Without the law’s passage, it is a choice between, at best, a city of hybrid structures that blends the old with the new, or at worst a graveyard of towers. Those responsible for making this choice are not only within the government but are also the citizens who  grant that government its power. No one can be blamed for the loss of heritage more than the Lebanese people, who have either not cared enough to stop it or who have given up hope.

No matter who they are — developers, politicians, owners, architects, investors and even activists — many have allowed this destruction by taking the easy way out, prioritizing their short-term individual interests over a truly national cause.

Diagnosing the architectural heritage issue as the symptom of a greater disease, Salam, the former culture minister, summarized: “Unfortunately, Lebanese people are very aggressive and ambitious on an individual level, but rarely on a collective level. If we go on like this… we will never advance anywhere.”

April 3, 2011 0 comments
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Real estate

For your information

by Executive Editors April 3, 2011
written by Executive Editors

Construction glides steadily

Construction work is resuming its upward arch after a slow start in January, shooting up 26.6 percent in February to 1.16 million square meters, registering a total of 2.07 million square meters of construction area authorized by building permits in the first two months of 2011. The most recent February figures, from the Order of Engineers in Beirut and Tripoli, show an 11.5 percent increase in the construction area authorized by permits relative to February of 2010, but the total amount of permits jumped almost 20 percent in comparison to the same period last year. The zone receiving the most construction activity remains Mount Lebanon, for which 682 permits were authorized in February, followed by the South and Bekaa regions. Construction area covered by permits up until February signifies 17 percent growth in comparison to the area covered by permits at this time in 2010. Some however see permits issued as a flawed indicator of the overall health of the real estate and construction sectors as this does not account for cancelled or stalled projects.

Syria hopes to build in billions

Syria will tender $8.4 billion in projects in the second quarter of 2011, a government official announced in the early March. Yasser al-Sibai, general manager of Syria’s Real Estate Development and Investment Commission, Syria’s property industry regulator, told Bloomberg that the commission was in the process of finalizing the tender books for a dozen separate projects totaling 12 million square meters. “We invite more investors to establish companies in Syria and participate in the tendering process, which will be announced in some two months,” said al-Sibai to Bloomberg. “Newly established companies are advised to merge in order to meet our development plans.” The commission has been in existence since 2008, but did not license the country’s first privately owned real estate developer until 2010. Syria has now licensed 24 private developers. Sibai said Syria requires 570,000 new housing units by 2015. But investor response to the to-be-tendered developments (which are set to provide 118,000 units) has been slow, with 35 percent of the investors being non-locals, mostly from the Gulf and a few from Turkey and Iran. An international arbitrator, Kamal Malas, suggested to Bloomberg that Syria’s operating conditions are lacking some of the basic needs for stable operations. “More stability in laws, a clearer vision on behalf of the government, better trained labor force and deeper coordination between authorities are among the issues,” said Malas. It is also unclear how the current unrest sweeping Syria will impact further investments.

MENA construction trillions

A total of $4.3 trillion will be spent on construction in the Middle East and North Africa by 2020, according to a new PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) forecast. This estimation represents 80 percent growth over the next decade. In their new report, “Global Construction 2020,” released in March, PwC forecasts global construction spending will grow to reach $12 trillion, experiencing 67 percent growth in the second decade of the 21st century. Jonathan Hook, engineering and construction global leader at PwC, said in a press release announcing the report: “The scale of projected [global] growth in construction output of 67 percent over the next decade from $7.2 trillion to $12 trillion represents a growth of 5.2 percent per annum, outpacing global gross domestic product growth.” According to Hook, the construction industry represents 11 percent of overall global GDP. The report says that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are the MENA growth hot-spots, given KSA’s young population and Qatar’s aggressive government spending in connection with the 2022 World Cup. “Particular emphasis will be placed on social and affordable housing to meet the needs of the growing indigenous populations,” wrote Mohammad Damash, PwC’s real estate, construction and engineering leader for the region in the report. PwC also noted Egypt as a place to look for steady growth. With large public debts, Egypt has passed a law allowing private investment in traditionally publicly funded infrastructure, but recent events may delay this development. Qatar and Algeria will finance most construction from oil and gas exports, the report noted. Squatting chez Qadhafi

A small group of protestors has moved into Saif al-Islam Qadhafi’s home in Hampstead, which is a village within the London borough of Camden renowned for having the largest population of millionaire inhabitants within its boundaries than any other area of Britain. The group, “Topple the Tyrants,” put banners on top of the house with the words “Revolution” and “out of Libya, out of London.” They claimed to the press to be acting “in solidarity with the people of Libya, the people of Cairo, the people of Saudi Arabia.” When asked how many members “Topple the Tyrants” has, group spokesman Montgomery Jones said to reporters: “We’re not doing numbers.” The group has no Libyan members but claims to have “Middle Eastern” membership. A printed announcement proclaiming the group’s squatter’s rights is taped to the $16 million brick house. Though the house is technically owned by a Cayman Islands-registered holding company, the protestors claimed to have received an anonymous tip revealing its location and owner. In the group’s official statement of its intentions, a member who first climbed out of a second story window and down a tree, said: “We do not trust the British government to properly seize the Libyan government’s corrupt and stolen assets so we have decided to take matters into our own hands. The British government only recently stopped actively helping to train the Libyan regime in crowd control techniques… as well as training the regime in repression, British corporations are also guilty of providing the same weapons that are now being used by Qadhafi against the Libyan people.

Beirut offices climb rankings, again

Yet again, Beirut’s office space has moved up in rank in Cushman and Wakefield’s annual survey of office property prices. Beirut was ranked the 28th most expensive in the world and third in the region in the 2011 survey, up from 31st place globally and fourth regionally in 2010. The survey takes into account office space in 68 locations, ranking them based on rent, taxes and expected service charges. Just ahead of Beirut on the list were Warsaw, Dublin and Athens, while Beirut proved more expensive than Tel Aviv, Brussels and Vancouver. The report mentioned that rents in Beirut Central District (BCD) were stable in 2010, as opposed to a decline in other regional markets and the skyrocketing increase in BCD prices in the previous few years. In fact, the region was a global minority as only 16 of the 42 countries covered by the survey saw declining office rents while three saw stable rents.

Out of Libya, on to Iraq

Ay Yıldızlar Construction of Turkey is dropping all of its projects in Libya in favor of aggressive expansion into Iraq. The Turkish company stands to lose $15 million due from the Libyan authorities, according to Construction Week, and has now agreed to partner with Iraqi Cihan Group to build 62,000 residences in the northern Iraqi city of Erbil. The company stopped work on 13 separate projects in several Libyan cities, including Benghazi and Tripoli. The so-called “mega-project” in Erbil will begin with 15,000 residences with total costs of $250 million, said Muhammet Tuysuz, coordinator of administrative management and technical affairs for Ay Yıldızlar. “The negotiations took nearly two years for this mega-project, which will include smart-apartments and one-floor luxury properties,” said Tuysuz, as reported by Construction Week. This initial project will be followed by a second phase resulting in 42,000 residences, also in Erbil. Cihan Group is an Iraqi holding company whose areas of operation include textiles, plastic, paper, trade, automobiles and investment banking. “The total cost will be paid by our Iraqi partner Cihan Group and Ay Yıldızlar Construction will deal with the construction of the project,” said Tuysuz. Iraqi Housing and Municipalities Minister Muhammad Sahib al-Daraji said that Iraq will require two million new residences in the coming four years.

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Banking & Finance

Money matters bulletin

by Executive Editors April 3, 2011
written by Executive Editors

Regional stock market indices

Regional currency rates

France Telecom, Agility to acquire stake in Iraq’s Korek

France Telecom agreed with Kuwaiti logistics group Agility to acquire a 44 percent stake in Iraqi mobile operator Korek Telecom, as part of the French group’s strategy to expand its presence in emerging markets. The two groups will form a joint venture with Agility to take 54 percent of the stake. France Telecom will pay $245 million for a 20 percent indirect stake in Korek and will extend a $185 million loan to the company. Moreover, it will have an option to increase its indirect stake in Korek to 27 percent in 2014. Agility will contribute its existing convertible debt and inject $50 million in exchange for a 24 percent indirect stake in Korek Telecom. The company will also provide a $100 million four-year shareholder loan to the Iraqi operator to decrease its debt, pay for its license and improve networks and service.

Abu Dhabi’s Guggenheim

Abu Dhabi’s Tourism Development & Investment Company (TDIC) received on March 20 bids from contractors for the construction of its Guggenheim Abu Dhabi museum. The project is expected to cost more than $800 million and to be completed by 2013. The new Guggenheim will be bigger than the ones in New York, Venice, Bilbao, Berlin and Las Vegas. The museum, designed by US architect Frank Gehry, will be built on Saadiyat Island, just 500 meters off the coast of Abu Dhabi, and will cover a total area of 30,000 square meters. Saadiyat Island, a $27 billion art and culture project, includes the $500 million Louvre Abu Dhabi Museum designed by Jean Nouvel, the Sheikh Zayed National Museum, luxury resorts, golf clubs and private villas.

GCC insurance growth

Across the region, insurance premiums should double to more than $27 billion over the next five years, according to Qatar’s Finance Minister Yousuf Hussein. The minister, who was addressing an audience at “MultaQa Qatar 2011,” a conference dedicated to the insurance and reinsurance industries, added that the average growth rate in the region’s insurance sector stood at 28 percent between 2005 and 2010. The penetration rate of insurance premiums nevertheless remained relatively low at 1.9 percent, compared to a global average of 7 percent. This shows that the sector has high growth potential, added Minister Hussein, projecting Qatar’s gross domestic product growth to exceed 18 percent if oil prices average above $70 to $75 this year.

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Banking & Finance

Regional equity markets

by Executive Editors April 3, 2011
written by Executive Editors

Beirut SE  

Current year high: 1,180.99    Current year low: 923.19

>  Review period: Closed March 24 at 934.33 points                             Period Change: -0.28%

Beirut stocks inked an 18-month low on March 14, following a large demonstration in Beirut demanding Hezbollah’s disarmament. It also didn’t help that Premier-designate Najib Mikati remained unable to form a government. Still, stocks rebounded in the second half of the month following confirmations that no other banks in Lebanon would be targeted by the US Treasury Department following the merger of LCB and SGBL. Performance was mixed on the BSE, with Bank Audi ticking up 5.5% as Solidere and Byblos closed 2% and 2.1% lower, respectively.

Amman SE  

Current year high: 2,648.36                Current year low: 2,149.11

> Review period: Closed March 24 at 2,182.48 points                      Period Change: -3.1%

In the absence of any notable supporting news, ASE stocks continued their trip south driven partly by political uncertainty as fresh protests in Jordan demanded reforms. The banking sector shed 2.7% during the review period, although Arab Bank, the exchange’s largest stock by market capitalization, inched up 0.2%. Other sectors were also weak, with mining and extraction down 3.5%, including a 2.4% decline by Arab Potash.

Abu Dhabi Exchange  

Current year high: 2,925.42                Current year low: 2,471.70

>  Review period: Closed March 24 at 2,632.95 points                     Period Change: 1.7%

A recovery in the real estate and construction sectors led the positive showing of the ADX during the review period, as Aldar and RAK Properties rose 12.3% and 14.3%, respectively. Some of the positive news that supported the upward trend in March came from Taqa which positively surprised markets with a 460% increase in 2010 profits on higher oil and gas prices. In addition, UNB announced a 10% dividend while NBAD approved a 30% cash dividend, reflecting confidence in the banking sector’s prospects.

Dubai FM  

Current year high: 1,859.96                Current year low: 1,352.24

>  Review period: Closed March 23 at 1,552.81 points         Period Change: 10%

Stocks on the DFM staged a massive comeback in March, after Saudi authorities confirmed that the political and security situation was under control and appeased markets by buying stock through state-run pension funds and announcing large welfare spending plans. A boost also came when Arabtec postponed plans to raise capital, sending the builder’s shares up 25.3% during the review period. Investors found renewed confidence in the UAE’s political establishment and were buoyed by several earnings and dividend postings at Dubai Islamic Bank and Du, among others.

Kuwait SE  

Current year high: 7,575.00                Current year low: 6,134.60

>  Review period: Closed March 24 at 6,285 points              Period Change: -3%

The quick quashing of dissent in Saudi Arabia only marginally supported stocks on the KSE as pessimistic investors quickly booked their gains on continued fears of political unrest in the Gulf. A wave of negative sentiment set in as many companies failed to submit their financial statements and were suspended from trading. However, the government offered some glimpses of hope by launching the long-awaited Capital Markets Authority.

Saudi Arabia SE  

Current year high: 6,929.40                Current year low: 5,323.27

>  Review period: Closed March 23 at 6,362.42 points                     Period Change: 7.1%

Investors went home March 2 bitten by a cold 15% decline in one week, but by March 12, a roaring 18.3% spike had restored the warmth to Tadawul, the region’s largest stock exchange. Positive comments by the Finance Minister, who called stocks tempting, sparked the rebound, but it was effectively the announcement of massive additional government spending worth an estimated $150 billion that overshadowed any possible political risk from demonstrations.

Muscat SM  

Current year high: 7,027.32                Current year low: 6,058.11

>  Review period: Closed March 24 at 6,402.17 points                     Period Change: 4.2%

Political tensions and a grim outlook for equities, coupled with some strong earnings news, were a recipe for jittery trading on the MSM. Kuwait-based Global estimated that MSM-listed firms saw their profits dip 17.8% in 2010, with Omani banks and petrochemicals coming out on top. As part of the strong performance, BankDhofar, the third-largest listed company, saw a record growth of 31% in 2010 profits, but rose only 3.2% during the review period. Several finance services stocks lost ground during the period, including Bank Sohar, down 9.8% since March 1.

Bahrain Bourse  

Current year high: 1,605.98                Current year low: 1,361.19

>  Review period: Closed March 24 at 1,422.57 points                     Period Change: -0.6%

Although out of sync with spiking neighboring exchanges, BB stocks remained steady considering the developing security situation in the country. GCC countries sent some 1,500 Saudi-led troops to Bahrain, widening the circle of political and civil confrontation. To make things worse, S&P downgraded counterpart ratings on several banks including AUB and Arab Bank, citing risk of additional pressure on the sovereign. On the bright side, the GCC decided to establish a $20 billion fund to finance development projects in Bahrain and Oman.

Qatar SE  

Current year high: 9,242.63                Current year low: 6,647.18

>  Review period: Closed March 24 at 8,307.85 points                     Period Change: 4.7%

Like other Gulf exchanges, the QSE regained its lost ground following positive news from Saudi Arabia, but Qatari firms had plenty to offer too. Several listed companies, including Mawashi, Zad and Qatar General Insurance reported strong 2010 results and estimates showed 34 of 43 listed companies collectively declared some $3.02 billion for the year. It was business as usual, with several acquisition announcements and virtually no impact from regional unrest. Heavyweights Industries Qatar and QNB were up 5.3% and 4.6% respectively during the review period.

Tunis SE  

Current year high: 5,681.39                Current year low: 4,058.53

>  Review period: Closed March 24 at 4,459.48 points                     Period Change: 9.9%

Stocks gained momentum on the Tunis stock exchange after trading resumed on March 7 following one week of suspension. Still, S&P downgraded the country’s sovereign credit rating, but affirmed the credit ratings of five Tunisian banks, restoring confidence in the sector despite a negative outlook. Tunisia continued to take solid steps toward establishing a democracy in the country with a first round of elections scheduled for July, but political and economic uncertainty remain. Some stocks advanced steadily, including Carthage Cement at 12.7% during the review period.

Casablanca SE  

Current year high: 13,397.47              Current year low: 11,331.57

>  Review period: Closed March 24 at 12,581.71 points       Period Change: -1.7%

A surprising increase in February was followed by a minor decline in early March, then stocks drifted through the rest of the month without a clear direction, and without any noticeable impact from the NATO-led military campaign on Libya. Casablanca and other cities hosted large rallies calling for reform, with little impact on market performance thus far, as the US hailed Morocco’s king’s pledge for reforms. Banking stocks gave back 1.2% during the review period with Attijariwafa Bank retreating 2.4%.

Egypt SE  

Current year high: 7,603.04                Current year low: 5,647.00

>  Review period: Closed March 24 at 4,951 points                  Period Change: -12.3%

The EGX resumed trading on the exchange on March 23 two days ahead of a deadline that could have seen the market removed from MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index. The freedom to sell cost shareholders a 9% decline by the end of the first trading session with investors seeking to escape a steep plunge that reflected the sharp drops in Egyptian stock GDRs on the LSE seen since late Jan. But the second day brought some hope with 97 companies increasing in value compared to only 44 decliners. 

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Banking & Finance

For your information

by Executive Editors April 3, 2011
written by Executive Editors

Life’s good in insurance

Lebanon’s life insurance industry should see significant growth in the coming four years, says Business Monitor International (BMI). Between 2011 and 2015 the independent research and analysis firm expects double-digit growth for Lebanon’s life insurance market, as well as those of other Middle Eastern countries. The underdeveloped nature of the regional insurance market has kept growth estimates high for years. BMI estimates that Lebanon’s insurance premiums totaled $1.26 billion last year, with non-life premiums amounting to $859.7 million and life premiums $399.3 million. Further, the company extrapolates that by 2015, premiums will total $2.1 billion with $1.4 billion in non-life and $691.4 million in life premiums. BMI’s report further predicts that the penetration of life insurance should increase to $155.63 per capita by 2015, from $95.28 per capita in 2011. The BMI report touted the success of companies like MedGulf and Arabia Insurance, which have expanded into multiple countries in the Middle East.

Lebanese commercial bank deposits fall

Lebanese commercial bank deposits witnessed a 1 percent month-on-month decrease in January 2011, according the latest figures from Banque du Liban, Lebanon’s central bank. Deposits totaled $106.13 billion in the first month of 2011, dropping from $1.08 billion at end-2010, compared to a $225 million growth over the same period a year earlier. Withdrawals by non-residents, amounting to $779 million, accounted for most of the decrease in deposits, while residents’ deposits fell by $297 million. The dollarization rate increased 2.1 percent since end-2010, as significant local currency withdrawals of $2.55 billion offset an increase of $1.48 billion in foreign currency deposits. Lebanese banks’ overall consolidated balance sheet also contracted by 0.4 percent in January 2011, as deposits made up 82.7 percent of the balance sheet. The contraction was also accompanied by a 1.1 percent expansion in lending activity. Loans grew by $377 million in the first month of 2011 as those extended to non-residents rose by $616 million. Meanwhile, a $239 million drop in loans granted to residents reflected a prevailing wait-and-see mood amongst Lebanese consumers and investors, amid escalated political tensions in the country and in the region.

Multi-billion dollar Etisalat-Zain deal falls through

Abu-Dhabi based Etisalat has scrapped plans to acquire a 46 percent stake in Kuwaiti telecom company Zain, estimated at $12 billion. Etisalat’s statement on March 19 mentioned due diligence results, political turmoil, disagreement among Zain shareholders and new Kuwaiti bylaws binding offers as reasons behind the company’s decision. The deal has been beset with obstacles since talks were initiated in November 2010. In late February 2011, National Investments Company ended its commitment as the deal’s architect after Zain had rejected three bids for a stake in its Saudi Arabia unit, valued at $750 million. The sale of the 25 percent stake was a term for the merger as regulatory authorities prohibited Etisalat from concurrently owning its Saudi affiliate Mobily and Zain KSA. At the time, Etisalat reiterated interest in the deal, offering a maximum of $6.11 per Zain Group share. On March 13, Zain’s board accepted a joint offer by Kingdom Holding and Bahrain Telecom Company (Batelco) for its Saudi assets, reviving hope for the separate deal with Etisalat. The offer is worth a total of $5 billion, out of which Kingdom and Batelco will pay $950 million in cash, and cover $3.8 billion of debt. Zain KSA will pay for the remaining $250 million. Both Kingdom and Batelco are still committed to buying Zain’s Saudi operations. All three were slated to sign a preliminary contract, including a breakup fee, at the end of March.

BDL cleans up

Established for anti-money laundering purposes by Banque du Liban (BDL), Lebanon’s central bank, the Special Investigation Commission (SIC) issued its 2010 annual report this month. The report revealed 254 suspected money-laundering cases, out of which 65.3 percent were local and 34.7 percent were referred from abroad. The results indicate a 25.7 percent increase in alleged dirty money cases since 2009, and a record since 2003, when 272 cases were suspected. Out of the 189 cases investigated by the SIC, 119 were referred to judicial authorities while 70 cases did not fall under the framework of Law 318, the anti-money laundering law. Accordingly, BDL lifted banking secrecy on 23 cases, 21 of which were domestic. Forgery accounted for 21.16 percent of the investigated cases, followed by terrorism and financing of terrorism at 12.7 percent, trade of narcotics at 4.23 percent, organized crime at 1.59 percent and embezzlement of private funds and illegal arms trading, at 0.53 percent each. The remaining 56 percent were not categorized. Local sources, financial investigative units as well as the United Nations and foreign embassies provided a combined 103 names for 22 cases related to terrorism. Institutions including commercial banks, insurance companies, brokerage firms and financial institutions were also examined by the SIC to monitor compliance with Law 318.

Big banks investigated over LIBOR Rate

American, Japanese and British authorities are focusing on major international banks as part of an investigation into the manipulation of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) during the 2008 financial crisis. Japanese and US regulators have subpoenaed Barclays, UBS, Citigroup and Bank of America, while WestLB has also received requests for information. Swiss UBS’s 2010 annual report shed light on the investigation, disclosing that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Japanese Financial Services Authority (FSA), had subpoenaed the bank. Regulators are probing into whether UBS and other major borrower banks have colluded to set their interbank rates too low during the financial crisis to comfort spooked investors and downplay their borrowing costs. LIBOR is calculated by Thompson Reuters for the British Bankers’ Association (BBA), pooling interest rates that banks expect to charge or pay each other for dollar and other currency loans, and calculating their average. The rate is considered a global benchmark rate to price derivatives and financial instruments, and is referred to by more than $350 trillion worth of financial products worldwide. Data reviewed by regulators initially lead to the investigation, signaling a divergence between banks’ low offered rates and their high credit risks during the financial crisis.

Port profits surge, Dubai World reaches debt deal

Dubai World, which announced in November 2009 a standstill on nearly $24 billion in debt, said on March 23 that a final agreement has been signed with almost 80 creditors to restructure its debt, now totaling close to $25 billion. The agreement divides Dubai World’s bank debt into two tranches, with $4.4 billion to be repaid over a five-year period and the remaining $10.3 billion over eight years, with a fixed interest rate of 2.4 percent, described by Bloomberg as “below market.” The remaining debt, owed to the Dubai government, will be converted into equity. On the same day, DP World, a ports operator subsidiary of Dubai World, said its 2010 profits rose 35 percent to $450 million, driven by volume growth in the second half of the year and cost controls. This year is also shaping up nicely for one of Dubai World’s largest holdings, according to DP World executives. “In the first two months of 2011 we have seen 12 percent volume growth across our consolidated portfolio with further margin improvement from the full year 2010,” disclosed DP World’s CEO Mohammed Sharaf.

QIIB to buy out Islamic Bank of Britain

Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIB), a Qatar-based sharia-compliant bank, announced on March 17 that the bank is undergoing negotiations to complete the purchase of a minority stake in the Islamic Bank of Britain (IBB) with assets of $350 million. QIIB, which boasted assets of $5 billion at the end of 2010, already holds a 80.95 percent stake in the British Islamic lender, and is offering one pence per share for the remainder in a deal that values the IBB at $40.9 million. According to QIIB, the board of directors of IBB has already approved the terms of the offer, although it represents a 70 percent discount on the British bank’s market price. The IBB’s official website listed Qatar’s Sheikh Thani bin Abdulla with a 6.44 percent equity stake as a shareholder and the bulk of the remaining 12 percent in public hands. QIIB’s growth is expected to accelerate following the Qatari central bank’s decision to prohibit Islamic banking branches at conventional lenders by the end of 2011. Earlier in March, QIIB received approval from its shareholders to issue sukuk (Islamic bonds) to boost capital if needed, giving the bank more capacity to potentially acquire Islamic assets from conventional counterparts.

Egypt’s banks get bumped 

Moody’s Investor Services, a global credit ratings agency, on March 21 downgraded by one notch from Ba3 to B1 the foreign-currency deposit ratings of Egyptian state-owned banks National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, as well as privately-owned Commercial International Bank, and Bank of Alexandria.  Local-currency deposit ratings for the three state-owned banks were also dropped two notches, from Ba1 to Ba3, and by one notch to Ba2 for Commercial International Bank. Exposure to lower-rated government debt along with deteriorating economic conditions prompted a decline in the standalone credit strength of the affected banks. Furthermore, the ratings agency pointed out that the downgrade of Egypt’s sovereign rating limits the country’s capacity to support its banking system. But the government is taking action to bolster its financial position. According to an EFG-Hermes report, Egyptian Finance Minister Samir Radwan told Egypt’s Al Mal newspaper that the country has requested a $5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.

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Executive Insight – Only real demand counts

by Bertrand Carlier April 3, 2011
written by Bertrand Carlier

Behind the current short-term fluctuations linked to shifting growth prospects lies a powerful uptrend in commodity prices. A deep-seated change in lifestyles in emerging countries is creating new needs in a self-sustaining process that generates ever more demand.

At its latest plenary session at the beginning of March, China’s National Assembly confirmed the direction in which markets are moving: industrial metal prices are likely to continue a rally that started a decade ago.

Nobody can or should invest in commodities unless they are convinced of the potential demand for capital goods and infrastructure needed to underpin endogenous economic growth, as opposed to export-driven expansion alone.

According to the Appliance Manufacturers and China Building Association, copper consumption already amounts to 41 kilograms per home. Looking at China’s 12th five-year plan, the proportion of the country’s population living in urban areas will expand from 47.5 percent today to 51.5 percent in 2015; this urbanization will require tens of thousands of kilometers of railways, roads and piping. It will also require new power stations to meet energy demand, and copper and copper derivatives will be needed here as well. 

Whatever the sector, requirements are staggering and the figures speak for themselves. According to the International Copper Study Group, China accounted for 7.87 million tons of the 22 million tons of copper used worldwide in 2009. By comparison, Western Europe, the planet’s second-largest consumer, accounted for “only” 3.13 million tonnes. A few figures from the production side put this trend in perspective: Escondida, the biggest copper mine in Chile, can produce a maximum 1.3 million tonnes per year, and 1.09 million tonnes were actually extracted in 2010. Chile’s total output increased 0.5 percent last year.

Urbanization & income, country comparisons

The 8 percent increase seen in world demand in 2010 should be compared with a 4 percent increase in output. “Shortfall” is a euphemism, and prices are bound to rise further even without consideration of strategic stocking. Having surged to almost $10,200 per ton, copper prices are now fluctuating just above the $9,000 mark. This level looks attractive in the long term.

The emerging-country demand argument may be a cliché, but it represents the stark reality of the situation, especially given China’s latest development plans. Identifying demand factors is the best means of evaluating changes in prices.

Cashing in on calamity

Since February 15, 2011, issues relating to world growth have weighed on all commodity prices. The Japanese disaster has followed instability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), clouding the prospects for activity and fuelling price volatility. Yet while instability effectively creates a tax on consumption via crowding-out effects, Japan’s predicament actually strengthens the upswing in commodity prices. After all, reconstruction efforts will require purchases of copper over and above the country’s 1.22-million-ton consumption in 2010. Short-term volatility should not mask a long-term trend bolstered by rising demand for a product of limited supply.

Copper use by region in 2009 (millions of tons)

Copper use by country 2009

In terms of the upheaval currently rocking the MENA region, the outcome is uncertain due to the social factors that are contributing to these crises. The movement of revolt, which derived its power from the ever-widening gaps within these societies, has taken a turn that could threaten stability across the region. None of the main producers has been affected for the time being. The action taken by the Gulf Cooperation Council and conciliatory gestures in the form of handouts are sure signs that the regimes in place are feeling the pressure and acknowledging the risk of social unrest.

Copper use by business sector and region in 2009

The increase in real demand masks a political dimension, too. Just imagine the social unrest if, for  want of basic materials, China fails to deliver the 38 million new homes it has promised under the current five-year plan. Access to such resources is vital and readily explains Chinese and Indian commodity-related acquisitions and equity stakes.

That said, premia for high-probability events are rising, as the case of the insurance market shows. Soaring oil prices against a backdrop of instability in the Middle East and North Africa are a salutary reminder of that fact. In an inversion of the usual relationship on the commodity markets, volatility recently rose in line with a sharp increase in crude oil prices. This insurance premium is apparently $10-$15 per barrel, a stark pointer toward geopolitical uncertainty.

The synchronization of growth cycles is reflected in a combined surge in energy demand. As with copper, the factors driving up energy prices depend above all on growth. Commodity prices are often set by marginal demand, with the disappearance of a few hundred barrels of oil per day out of a total of around 87.5 million barrels consumed per day triggering immediate price adjustments to the upside, with the size of the move depending on the quality of the oil concerned. 

The 2008 crisis probably boosted awareness among major consumers such as India and China that they have to invest if their populations are to benefit from endemic growth. In the present recovery phase, demand for commodities is now increasing among the major developed countries. This amounts to a long-term demand shock in the context of insufficient pre-crisis investment, compounded recently by geopolitical risk.

This is an explosive mixture that is likely to drive commodity prices higher still, amid heightened volatility that reflects wavering growth expectations.

 

Bertrand Carlier is the manager of Bel Air Fixed Income & Commodity Funds at Credit Agricole Suisse

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No queen for the tribes

by Peter Speetjens April 3, 2011
written by Peter Speetjens

 

 

These are not the easiest of days for Jordan‘s King Abdullah II. The “Arab Spring” has reached Amman and is putting his throne under pressure from two sides. Every Friday, which has been dubbed the national “day of rage,” thousands of leftists and Islamists of mainly Palestinian descent take to the streets to demand political reform. On the other side of the spectrum, the Jordanian tribes have grown ever more vocal in their demands to curb the growing Palestinian influence in the country.

The focal point of their criticism has been none other than Queen Rania, herself of Palestinian descent. In February, 36 tribal representatives sent an open letter to the king in which they accused his wife of “building power centers for her interests that go against what Jordanians and Hashemites have agreed on in governing, and [she] is a danger to the nation, the structure of the state and the political structure of the throne.”

The letter furthermore criticized her frequent presence in the international media, and even accused her of having registered former tribal land in the name of her family. The letter hit the country like a bomb. After all, it is by law forbidden to criticize any member of the royal family. Yet the royal court could do little against the signatories, as they represented some of the country’s largest tribes, including the Bani Sakhr, which in early March blocked the airport road in protest against the state’s ongoing confiscation of tribal lands.

The royal court did act, however, when Agence France Presse Bureau Chief Randa Habib dared share fragments of the letter with an international audience. Habib had to bear the brunt of the royal anger. The court threatened to sue both her and the press agency for “slander,” as she had referred to “tribal leaders,” when in fact they were only representatives. Habib was also fired as columnist for the state-owned daily The Jordan Times.

Among the signatories was the well-known right-wing dissident and former Member of Parliament Ahmad Ouweidi Abbadi, the chairman of the Jordan National Movement, who in 2007 was sentenced to two years in jail for accusing former Interior Minister Eid el-Fayez of corruption. According to him, the “true” Jordanians are today second-class citizens within their own country.

While some of letter’s accusations seem exaggerated, the fundamental sentiment behind the criticism is shared by a considerable part of the population and touches upon the very essence and split nature of Jordan. The country’s original inhabitants mainly consist of tribal Bedouins. It was only after the establishment of Israel in 1948 and the 1967 Six-Day war that hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees entered the kingdom.

Many received passports and, on paper at least, are today full-fledged Jordanians. Some 1.2 million among them, however, only have a residency permit. The tribes are extremely worried that the royal court aims to offer them the Jordanian nationality. “King Abdullah must choose: Rania or the throne,” Abbadi told me bluntly. “If she will not disappear we will sooner or later have a civil war.” Harsh words from a bitter man, yet Abbadi is not alone. Some analysts have described the current tense situation as “a Black September without arms,” referring to the 1970 fighting between the PLO and King Hussein’s troops.

Former general Ali Habashneh, the widely respected chairman of the National Committee for Retired Servicemen (NCRS), did not sign the petition. Nor did he accuse Queen Rania of improper behavior or transaction. However, he too believes she has too much of a say at the Royal Court. As early as May 1, 2009, Habashneh offered the King, on behalf of the NCRS, a petition expressing the organization’s concerns. On March 15 this year NCRS again made headlines by publicly claiming that the royal court over the past decade has issued some 130,000 passports to Palestinian refugees.

Habashneh furthermore accused the government of being “weak” in the face of “United States and Israeli pressures to settle Palestinian refugees in Jordan.” According to him, Israel’s right-wing government has killed the idea of an independent Palestinian state, with the (financial) help of Washington, by turning Jordan into Palestine.  In this scenario, he warned, the Black September without arms would likely begin to gather weapons.

Peter Speetjens is a Beirut-based journalist

 

April 3, 2011 0 comments
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Resistance on the high seas

by Nicholas Blanford April 3, 2011
written by Nicholas Blanford

The stakes are growing in the looming confrontation between Lebanon and Israel over the suspected existence of massive fossil fuel deposits in the eastern Mediterranean. The delight in Israel at the recent discovery of two large gas fields off its northern coastline has given way to concerns that it could provide the pretext for a new war with Hezbollah.

That anxiety has hardened with the uncertainties regarding Israel’s arrangement to purchase Egyptian gas following the collapse of Hosni Mubarak’s regime and calls in Cairo to annul the agreement. The upshot is that the potential oil and gas wealth in the eastern Mediterranean could provide an economic windfall for the countries in the area — Lebanon, Israel, Syria and Cyprus — but it also represents a colossal security headache.

The two gas fields off the northern Israel coast — Tamar and Leviathan — contain an estimated 237.8 billion cubic meters and 453 billion cubic meters, respectively, sufficient to satisfy Israel’s energy needs for the next half century. Last year, the United States Geological Survey estimated that the Levantine Basin Province, which encompasses parts of Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Cyprus, could contain as much as 122 trillion cubic feet of gas and 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

Key to the tensions between Lebanon and Israel over the gas deposits is that their joint maritime border has never been delineated. Beirut has asked the United Nations to help mark a temporary sea boundary between Lebanon and Israel, a maritime equivalent of the “Blue Line” established by the UN in 2000, which corresponds to Lebanon’s southern land border. The UN has agreed to assist and the Israelis are studying the proposal. But the UN faces a potentially thankless task. The demarcation of the Blue Line 11 years ago was mired in mutual distrust and wrangling with neither the Lebanese nor the Israelis willing to concede an inch of territory to the other. Without goodwill from both sides, the maritime boundary could be even more difficult to define given the complicated geography of the coastline. Some have described the dispute over the gas fields along the Lebanon-Israel border as another “Shebaa Farms” — a source of manufactured tension with Israel.

But one European diplomat in Beirut said that parallels between the Shebaa Farms and the off-shore gas fields are misplaced. “Forget the Shebaa Farms,” the diplomat said, “the Lebanese are not being difficult [over the maritime boundary], because they have real economic interests here. Unless there is a pragmatic arrangement you could have a confrontation.” It is perhaps no surprise then that the sudden interest in the potential fossil fuel wealth off the Israeli and Lebanese coastline has turned the Mediterranean into a potential new theater of conflict between the Israelis and Hezbollah.

Hezbollah’s ability to target shipping — and possibly offshore oil and gas platforms — was demonstrated in the month-long war with Israel in 2006 when the militants came close to sinking an Israeli naval vessel with an Iranian version of the Chinese C-802 missile. Hezbollah fighters have since hinted that they have acquired larger anti-ship missiles, double the 72-mile range of the C-802 variant. Last year, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah warned that his organization now possesses the ability to target shipping along the entire length of Israel’s coastline. In January, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the offshore gas fields as a “strategic objective that Israel’s enemies will try to undermine,” and vowed that “Israel will defend its resources.”

In February, the Israeli navy reportedly presented to the government a maritime security plan costing up to $70 million to defend the gas fields. Upping the ante even further, Nasrallah promised in March that if Israel threatens future Lebanese plans to tap its oil and gas reserves, “only the Resistance would force Israel and the world to respect Lebanon’s right.”

Then there is the recent passage of two Iranian navy vessels through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean and the Israeli navy’s subsequent discovery in March of a smuggled consignment of arms and ammunition, including six C-704 anti-ship missiles believed destined for Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The missiles, though smaller than the C-802, could target Israeli shipping off Gaza as well as Israel’s Yam Tethys oil rig off the coast of Ashkelon. The oil and gas fields off the Lebanese and Israeli coasts look set not only to become a potential long-term source of wealth — but also a source of conflict in the years ahead.

Nicholas Blanford is the Beirut-based correspondent for The Christian Science Monitor and The Times of London

 

 

 

April 3, 2011 0 comments
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Time to rethink a nuclear Middle East

by Paul Cochrane April 3, 2011
written by Paul Cochrane

Three days after an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale critically damaged Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP), the president of South Korea and the crown prince of Abu Dhabi attended a ground-breaking ceremony of the Braka NPP in the United Arab Emirates; it is the first of four to be built under a $20 billion contract inked in 2009 between the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation and a consortium of South Korean and American companies.

The inauguration celebration could hardly have been more inopportune. In the course of a week the incident at the Fukushima NPP went from being rated four on the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale, “an accident with local consequences,” to level five, “an accident with wider consequences.” The Fukushima disaster is the only level five rating since the Three Mile Island meltdown in the United States in 1979. There has only been one level seven, the highest rating, in Chernobyl in 1986, which, according to research by New York’s Academy of Sciences published last year, resulted in the deaths of 985,000 people from cancer and related diseases.

The global “nuclear renaissance” touted just a few years ago seems far less secure, a fact reflected in investor sentiment: uranium prices on the spot market following the Japanese calamity plunged 27 percent to $50 per pound as countries started reconsidering the construction of new NPPs.

If there were ever a time to rethink nuclear power it is now, certainly before the dozen Middle Eastern and North African countries that have signed nuclear cooperation agreements start building NPPs. And the risks need to be seriously assessed, not just in terms of security, the logistics of storing spent fuel for thousands of years and so on, but also in terms of earthquake risk.

The Middle East is chock full of tectonic plates, with the Arabian plate in the middle flanked by the Eurasian, African and Indian plates. One of the most seismically active continental regions on earth is just across the sea from the United Arab Emirates, the Zagros Thrust in Iran. Of equal concern is the fact that modern systems to measure seismic activity have only recently been introduced in Saudi Arabia and Oman, while the UAE set one up just this year.

While there is little chance of a tsunami, an earthquake of a magnitude of 5.1 shook the emirate of Fujairah in 2002, and repeated seismic activity in the locality suggests that other, more sizable earthquakes are likely in the future. “When?” is of course the question, and the world can only hope that those building NPPs will do so with the worst-case scenario in mind; the Fukushima NPP was built at a time when the thought of it having to withstand a 9.0 magnitude earthquake was considered unlikely.

Braka was chosen as the site for the UAE’s first NPP as it is “an area with a very low probability of earthquakes — what is called low seismicity,” Ambassador Hamad al-Kaabi, UAE Permanent Representative to the IAEA, told the press after the Fukushima disaster. Yet it is not just unexpected earthquakes that are a concern when it comes to nuclear power. Transparency has been a major issue in the nuclear industry globally; in a 2008 US diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks, a Japanese politician said the country’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the department responsible for nuclear energy, has been “covering up nuclear accidents and obscuring the true costs and problems associated with the nuclear industry.”

The UAE hardly has a sterling reputation for transparency and accountability — think back to how the Dubai debt imbroglio was handled in 2009. If the Japanese, with 54 nuclear reactors, cannot be relied upon to be transparent, can we be sure the UAE will be?

Let us hope the UAE’s decision to go ahead with nuclear power, just as news of Fukushima’s fallout was dominating headlines, will not be retold through history as the epitomic example of a warning unheeded.

 

Paul Cochrane is the Middle East correspondent for International News Services

 

April 3, 2011 0 comments
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Dialogue of the deaf

by Peter Grimsditch April 3, 2011
written by Peter Grimsditch

 

 

The clash between journalists and the establishment in Turkey has descended into a dialogue of the deaf. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is noted for its dedicated acquiescence to George W. Bush’s philosophy that the press is either “for us, or against us.” On the other side of this Mexican standoff is an equally dedicated press — though printing credible stories with detailed evidence to support the narrative is not necessarily part of that dedication.

As the battle now stands, dozens of journalists are in jail, accused of taking part in a vast conspiracy — dubbed the Ergenekon case — to overthrow the government. The mere fact that they have been accused is enough for organizations like Amnesty International to declare that the government is guilty of a low blow and is intent on curbing press freedom; the possibility that some of them may actually have something to answer for does not arise.

An impartial referee would do well to remember that the accused are journalists, not paragons of virtue who can do no wrong. In March the government introduced a draft bill purportedly to protect journalists from prosecution over articles related to judicial investigations. Foul play again, according to Ercan Ipekçi, a spokesman for the Freedom for Journalists Platform, who says the law would effectively ban journalists from reporting on judicial investigations altogether. Well, not quite. 

The preamble to the draft law talks of a “clarification about the circumstances in which reporting on investigations would break the law,” meaning press campaigns demanding the release of suspects detained by the police would be illegal.

“This is a retreat from the current situation and is thus unacceptable,” said Ipekçi. Journalists might not like to admit it, but it is not their function to represent a defendant or to put up the arguments of a lawyer seeking a dismissal of the charges, in this or any other case.

Turkish journalists ought to have no interest in prejudicing the cases of those under arrest, so why would they want to try a case in print ahead of an actual hearing? Whether or not journalists should divulge early on the discovery of supposedly manufactured evidence underpinning the charges is a moot point; in a well-ordered system there is recourse for lawyers to present such findings to a judge for a timely ruling on alleged skulduggery by the police or prosecutors.

The Turkish judicial system is in a state of flux and reform, however, and defense lawyers in the Ergenekon case have not been able to follow this path. Even if the journalists do provide the only forum in which to raise issues of official impropriety, they do not earn many plaudits for persistence. Among the failings of a press that, with exceptions, frequently prevents detail from getting in the way of telling a good story, is that it has yet to learn the virtues of doggedly pursuing its investigations until it gets a result.

There have been many stories in the past few months alleging faked “evidence” adduced against some of the Ergenekon suspects. Yet once the initial flurry of excitement inherent in exposing such alleged corruption had subsided, there were few attempts to follow up and force the issue to a conclusion. Yesterday’s good story is tomorrow’s lining on the floor of the birdcage.

There may well be serious doubts about the freedom of the press in Turkey — certainly the AKP in general, and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in particular, are very sensitive to criticism and shower the press with a confetti of writs — but interfering in judicial trials is not the battleground on which to fight.

The answer is that if a complementary set of laws safeguarding defendants’ rights were in place, these questions of interfering in the judicial process wouldn’t arise. In the developed world, for the most part, there is a time limit for detaining suspects without charging them and subsequently providing defense lawyers with copies of the evidence against those who do face trial. But in Turkey, under certain circumstances, a suspect can be held in jail for up to 10 years without facing a charge. 

The government’s real sin may be its procrastination in reforming a judicial system still emerging from the dark ages. Instead of introducing contempt of court legislation, it might be better engaged in creating a judicial system that ought not to be held in contempt.

Peter Grimsditch is Executive’s Istanbul correspondent

 

 

April 3, 2011 0 comments
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