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Real estate

Shopping centers – Just getting bigger

by Executive Staff October 1, 2007
written by Executive Staff

While still there, although less in Abu Dhabi than Dubai, the traditional, open-air souq is quickly being overshadowed by the modern, air-conditioned mall in the political and financial capitals of the UAE. Dubai dedicates more space to its souqs but it also far surpasses its much larger neighbor in space dedicated to climate-controlled commerce. And both are furiously building more malls.

At the end of 2006, the land covered by existing shopping malls in Dubai alone gave the UAE more space dedicated to shopping than any other GCC country will have until 2010, based on announced plans at the time.

In May, Dubai announced what is being described as the “world’s largest shopping area” — 3.7 million square kilometers of leasable retail space, or gross leasable area (GLA) in industry lingo.

The move added a retail component to the Bawadi development launched last year within Dubailand — the emirate’s 278 million square kilometer entertainment development. Malls, boutiques and street-level shops will line each side of the 10-kilometer Bawadi Boulevard, woven between and through 51 hotels, which themselves will have retail space.

This deluge of retail space — the equivalent of over 544 World Cup regulation football pitches, which if laid out lengthwise in a line would stretch over 57 kilometers and take the average person over 11 hours to walk end to end — is over two-and-a-half times the GLA in Dubai at the end of 2006.

Less than a month after the retail plan was announced, Al Ghurair Investments, a holding company based in the UAE, inked a joint venture with Bawadi to build the first of the malls. Phase one of the AED10 billion ($2.74 billion) project is expected to reach completion by 2012, explains Arif Mubarak, chief executive officer of Bawadi LLC, the project’s coordinator. The Ghurair Group, founded by Al Ghurair’s Investments’ CEO’s father, opened the first mall in Dubai in 1983.

Mubarak declined to speculate on the total investment the Bawadi shopping space would draw but does not expect the building to be completed before 2015. The Bawadi hotel development, announced in 2006, is expected to be finished by 2016 and cost AED 367 billion ($100.55 billion).

Elsewhere in Dubailand, what will be the world’s largest mall has its pilings and infrastructure in place, according to an official with the mall’s owner. She said that they hope building of the structure will begin in a couple of months.

Outdoing the world and each other

Myra Searle, vice president for retail with the I & M Galadari Group LLC, which owns the Mall of Arabia, explained the first phase of the mall will take 29 months to complete and have 372,000 square meters of GLA. Phase two will be ready five to seven years later and put Dubai at the top of the large-mall food chain. The mall’s total cost is AED32 billion ($8.8 billion).

The Mall of Arabia will not only replace the current largest mall in the world, in China, but it will also depose Dubai’s current largest mall, Mall of the Emirates, often known as “the one with the ski slope.” The Mall of the Emirates built an indoor winter oasis with the centerpiece five-slope indoor skiing area.

Abu Dhabi is not attempting to defy nature with its retail outlets, and the space dedicated to the malls in largest of the emirates, which comprises 81% of the country’s total area, pales in comparison to Dubai. Between 2006 and 2010, the GLA in Abu Dhabi is expected to more than double from 574,000 square meters to 1.4 million square meters. This will leave the oil and gas rich sheikhdom with 0.87 square meters of GLA per capita, 37% less than what Dubai is expected to have by 2010.

As Abu Dhabi follows Dubai’s lead in mall building, it is also mimicking its neighbor’s self-contained development building model. Dubai is known for the many “cities” within it (Knowledge City, Media City, Sports City, etc.), which feature housing, office, entertainment and, of course, retail space.

One of Abu Dhabi’s largest development projects, Al Reem Island, being built on a natural island, will also host what will become one of Abu Dhabi’s largest malls. Less than a third the size of the future world’s largest mall, the Al Reem Island Mall is expected to offer 130,000 square meters of GLA upon completion in 2010.

The Al Raha Beach development, which is planned to span a length of the Dubai-Abu Dhabi highway and, again, Dubai-style, be built on reclaimed land, will also house a shopping mall, albeit much smaller. The Al Raha Beach Mall will only offer shoppers 40,000 square meters of GLA.

The ultimate goal of all this mall building is to draw tourists, but malls are also a hit with the local market. Residents of the UAE are serious shoppers. A 2005 Nielsen Company poll found 80% hit the mall once a week or more “for something to do” — or “shopertainment”. This is the second highest rate in the world behind Hong Kong.

“The trend is more or less the same [today],” Himanshu Vashishtha, managing director at The Nielsen Company UAE, said. “If anything, the proportion of people who do shopping for entertainment, or “shopertainment” as we term it in this part of the world, has only increased.” Why?

Little else to do but shop

“Six months of the year you have very hot weather and people definitely tend to seek indoor entertainment,” he said. “Couple that with the fact that 74% of shoppers enjoy shopping. This is true even when they are just visiting the hypermarket… And it becomes an outing.” With food courts, cinemas and other attractions, malls have become the place to go in the UAE. On average, residents spend three to four hours at the mall each trip. He noted the rates were higher among UAE nationals than the community of foreign nationals increasingly populating the country.

On average, Vashishtha said, those flocking to the mall spend AED400 ($110) per trip, or just under AED21,000 ($5,800) each per year. Right before the announcement of this new retail space, the real estate consulting firm Collier’s International estimated Dubai residents would need to spend AED31,000 ($8,490) per capita for all the malls to turn a profit.

The local burden, they estimated, would be reduced to around AED21,000 ($5,800) when tourist spending is considered, equal to what the entire country currently spends per capita each year. In Abu Dhabi, Colliers estimates residents will have to each spend AED18,000 ($4,932) to keep their malls in the black. Colliers did not estimate what amount tourists spend in Abu Dhabi malls.

So is all this mall building a viable plan?

“That’s the million-dollar question,” says Searle, of the Mall of Arabia. “Put it this way: A developer will know when Dubai is over-malled when the retailers no longer lease… At the moment we have seen no evidence of that taking place.”

October 1, 2007 0 comments
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By Invitation

Breaking into a family affair

by Imad Ghandour October 1, 2007
written by Imad Ghandour

The main advantage of private equity backed companies over normal family businesses has always been their ability to focus on increasing the value of the company quickly. Speed of execution and focus on shareholder value is the name of the game.

A recent report by Ernst & Young on the impact of PE ownership on corporate performance in Europe and the US reveals that PE increases the company value during the ownership tenure, and, even post-exiting. During PE ownership, the average value of PE owned companies increased by 26% compared to 12% for listed companies during the same period. More surprisingly, the growth of value in PE-backed companies continued after the PE fund sold its stake. Profits at the biggest US and European companies sold by private equity last year grew much faster than at their publicly listed rivals, supporting the buy-out industry’s claims of superior management skills, according to the E&Y report.

Despite the nascency of private equity in the region, private equity players have demonstrated similar ability to their international counterpart by focusing and quickly increasing shareholder value in several family businesses. Take for example Depa United Group, the leading interiors contractor who is planning to go public in 2008. TNI and other institutional investors have bought into the company since 2004, and were able to increase its revenue more than 10 folds and its value more than four folds over that period. Another example is Aramex. The once privately owned but currently listed logistics company grew its bottom line five-fold over the three years when it was in private hands, and its phenomenal growth continued post IPO.

But not all investments in family businesses have such happy endings. Unfortunately, the leap of faith that many private equity players do when they invest in a family-owned business is that business owners seek to maximize their company value in the next three to five years. In most cases, this is a wrong judgment call. In practice, the owner rarely makes maximizing his company value a top priority. Company or share value means very little to someone who is keen to keep his shares and pass them over to his children and grandchildren. Many family owners extract more value from things like revenue growth, market share and market dominance, and professional and industry prestige. The problem becomes more acute when the owner is the manager of the business, and hence, is driving the business according to his own agenda.

Without addressing this misalignment of interest, an investment in a family business is doomed to be problematic. Bulletproof agreements, good intentions, well defined strategies, and nice people will not mitigate the problem in a Middle Eastern business environment. Only when the business owner realizes a tangible financial benefit from increasing the company value will there be proper alignment and hopefully big returns from the investment.

Imad Ghandour is Head of Strategy & Research, Gulf Capital and Board Member of the Gulf Venture Capital Association.

October 1, 2007 0 comments
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Real estate

Engineering the new – Economic city

by Executive Staff October 1, 2007
written by Executive Staff

What are the three most important things for GCC real estate developers? The proper answer has to be (1) strategy, (2) strategy, and (3) strategy. This is the case for both the master planners in governments of kingdoms, emirates, provinces, or special economic cities and the entire field of private, listed, or state-backed property firms.

The magnanimity of governments and leading developers in the Arab World is reflected unequivocally in their plans to build new cities. This drive to growth is so intense that we have become used to take immediate notice of a project announcement if it carries an investment price tag in the double-digits — of billions of dollars, mind you. A cost expectation of mere millions or one or two dollar billions for a new residential district or financial center in a GCC country nowadays will hardly stir the attention of the media and other market observers.

Viability is the test for new projects

These investment dimensions represent an immense responsibility to provide returns to stakeholders, which are the current and future generations of the cities, provinces, or entire emirates whose decision makers have committed these resources of land and cash to real estate projects that will depend on being economically and commercially viable over decades and perhaps centuries.

Already in the short term, a litmus test of viability for big development concepts can be applied by looking at their productivity in economic terms, measured through the price that the market is allocating to offices and commercial properties through rent, lease, and sales contracts.

For most mixed-use mega-projects, like the six economic cities on the construction agenda of Saudi Arabia, the chances for tallying real track records for demand are still years away. The demand for office real estate in new UAE business hotspots, however, is already very measurable.

By this yardstick, the quest for creating a regional or international financial hub in Dubai, for example, has matured way beyond the vision that it was at the turn of the 21st century. The Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) currently counts among the most sought-after office locations in the Middle East and Africa, and one can easily include numerous European capitals in the list.

Soft evidence for the demand comes from stories of companies who queued for months to get a lease on an office at DIFC, accepting basically any size and price only to establish a presence there. Hard evidence comes from price surveys that put prime properties in Dubai into the range of the ten most expensive cities worldwide for cost of occupying an office. Other market assessments say that office rents for prime space in the emirate went up 35% in New Dubai from January to September 2007, on back of an estimated 50% average increase for prime office rents in 2006.

Rental rates for sub-prime offices in New and Old Dubai are also reported to have increased massively, with some less pricey areas even narrowing the gap to the top rental category where some analysts say space is offered at average annual rates of $60 (AED219) per square foot while others put the average paid in top business locations at almost $90 (AED329) per square foot. Real estate experts working in the UAE are in consensus that vacancies in office space in the main cities are practically nonexistent. Occupancy rates of “99%” apply equally to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, where according to a senior manager at developers ALDAR Properties, “any commercial, office, residential tower in Abu Dhabi is being sold like hot cakes right now.”

Looking forward, the expectation is that office rents will continue to move up for a while because demand growth is far from over and delivery of new office space is lagging behind developers’ forecasts, similar to the UAE-wide delays of residential construction. The latest assessment of the UAE office market, by EFG Hermes researchers, expects nonetheless that commercial space in Dubai will increase to 75 million square feet by end of 2010, three times its volume at end 2006.

Office space demand is difficult to identify

Factors influencing future occupancy of office space in the UAE business centers include demand from international companies and new economic initiatives created by the various emirates. A March 2007 research note by financial firm Prime said that the supply-demand dynamics for office space in Dubai is more difficult to identify than for the residential sector, adding that industry insiders expressed uncertainty over the future direction of commercial property.

Prime estimated that about 14,700 new companies would have to set up shop in Dubai from 2007 through 2010 in order to fill the forecasted supply, assuming an average office size of 3,500 square feet per company. It compared this to the number of new business licenses issued by the emirate’s Department of Economic Development in 2006. These numbered 13,170 and to 92% were licenses for commercial and professional activities, which the researchers viewed as likely clients for office space.

EFG Hermes, for its part, expects that commercial rents in Dubai will slide back gradually from 2008, reasoning that the bulk of new office space will hit the market in 2008 and 2009 and that the totals spelt out in current development plans will all be available by end 2010. The flooding with new space in 2008/9 will align office rents again with international averages, EFG Hermes wrote.

In addition to price expectations, the scenario is also changing noticeable in matters of quality. As market participants observed, supply limits of the last few years made companies accept secondary or temporary locations when space in their desired office tower or business zone wasn’t available. But with higher pricing and diversification, the market for commercial properties has entered a process of increasing sophistication. This, according to UAE real estate management companies, accentuates the differences between well-designed and managed office towers that have been constructed with clearly defined client needs in mind and towers that were put up with vague use concepts by general investors, based on having land and money to build.

The vagaries in charting long-term prospects for commercial real estate in Dubai illustrate how strategies will be paramount assets for developers and governments. Location is very valid as classic parameter of selecting a property, be it for construction of a project or as site to rent/buy for a retail outlet, corporate headquarter, or home.

What, however, if it is locations that are being created? In the big schemes of regional growth, the players — in the UAE real estate market they are the governments of the seven emirates and the development companies they have established — are aiming to produce destinations and locations where largely no discernable commercial and social value concentrations had been perceived prior to the development initiatives.

The choice of locating one’s regional business office in a commercial center in Ras al-Khaimah, in Bahrain, or in the King Abdullah Economic City in Saudi Arabia is not going to be the same as making the more profitable pick between Park Lane and Old Kent Road in a game of Monopoly or deciding between the Champs-Elysees and a street off the Porte de Clignancourt for opening a luxury boutique. All mega-projects and larger development schemes in the GCC have characteristics of what is commonly called greenfield projects and decisions by companies to move there will be influenced by a confluence of factors, among which age-old reputation of the place will be the rarest.

Perception is crucial — it’s not all the same

From an outsider’s perspective of the UAE and other portions of the Gulf coast, similarities in climate and scenery are pervasive, although it is perhaps in the same way in which the distinct Japanese, Chinese, and Korean ethnicities of East Asia are regarded to look the same to outsiders. But as long as perception is crucial, it will be quintessential for master planners of Arab nations to devise their multi-billion-dollar projects in ways that create a mix of regulations, cultural settings, social and economic emphases, natural features, and lifestyle appeal that is just right for what they want to be. A challenging task for a community design if there ever was one.

According to the prospectuses and marketing presentations of various visionary communities in the region, the usual suspects for being included in a mega project are things like huge shopping malls, golf-course and marina adorned gated residential areas, a financial center or a dedicated free zone for specific industries, top-notch commercial infrastructure, and a tourism growth target calling for multiples in visitor numbers.

Within the UAE, emirates and cities without super-ambitious growth targets seem to be fewer than emirates with such plans. The best example for this national ambitiousness is Abu Dhabi. It has an array of development plans which by their size and number should be likened more to a flower garden than to a bouquet, ranging from a new airport and heavy industry outside the city to urban renewal and transformation of the natural islands surrounding the city, itself also located on an island. The summary net worth of real estate projects in the UAE capital is projected at $270 billion (AED986 billion).

Abu Dhabi developers say that the emirate has an advantage in devising its next steps with an eye on Dubai — in order to avoid its not so perfect experiences. “Dubai created a development blueprint and has put this area on the map, doing an unbelievable job in marketing. They compromised several things, one of them was infrastructure; we were lucky and saw this happen and studied it,” said Mohammed al-Mubarak, director for establishments and infrastructure at Abu Dhabi’s ALDAR Properties, the company that is mandated with key functions in the emirate’s real estate projects together with its counterpart, Sorouh Real Estate.

The view is shared by Samia Bouazza, marketing manager of real estate firm Tamouh Investments, who told Executive, “Abu Dhabi has the learning curve working to its advantage,” when compared with its two neighbors, Qatar and Dubai. Tamouh Investments, which is a major developer with projects in several UAE emirates, has a current 60-40 projects split between residential and retail space. Tamouh is the real estate arm of an Abu Dhabi based holding called Royal Group.

In Mubarak’s opinion, Abu Dhabi struck it right with a three-pronged focus on culture, education, and medical centers which the emirate is implementing through partnerships with international entities. It is building one museum under the Guggenheim name, which is reputed as franchisor in the elite activity of museum branding. It is also building a museum linked to the Louvre, which is the first-ever instance that the French institution lends its name to a distant branch in this form, and how can you get more elite than the Louvre? A whole island, Saadiyat, will be given to host culture and leisure.

For educational and medical excellence, Abu Dhabi will also collaborate with big international names, including MIT, NYU, Tufts, the Denver School of Mining among colleges and Johns Hopkins and Cleveland Clinic in hospital operations, Mubarak said, adding that ALDAR Properties will have a great opportunity in building integrated medical facilities under the model provided by Cleveland.

On the residential side, Abu Dhabi is exerting its power in Al-Raha Beach, a suburb for 120,000 people, and Al-Reem Island, where a current expanse of infrastructure works is preparing the ground for settling 200,000 in three residential districts by 2012. Not to forget green, Abu Dhabi has stated its ecological commitment and added a project for building Masdar City as the world’s first zero-carbon, car-free and waste-neutral green community for 50,000 residents. Carbon appreciators will not be ostracized either, as the circle of mega-projects is rounded off by Yas Island. This is going to be a $50 billion or so development with resorts and shopping, where construction of a Formula One circuit is one month ahead of schedule and race fans shall be able to smell rubber from 2009 on. The tourism-centric island will welcome visitors year-round at a Ferrari theme park and driving school.

The combination of development angles in Abu Dhabi — which is by no means exhausted in the aforementioned projects — is certainly daring and intriguing. It also represents a form of public-private partnership in which memories of 20th century models for central planning meet with private sector sagacity for commercial initiative under an in the best sense communal umbrella of tutelage.

Collaboration between developers

This mode of collaboration is such that the government tightly guards the overall planning and developers — which commonly have the state as controlling shareholder — wrangle in a competitive way over which projects they win. Knowing a certain type of project is underway, the government will likely not want to duplicate something too similar, “so you’ll see all the developers meeting together and discussing their projects,” said Bouazza.

By their parameters, Abu Dhabi’s governmental authorities and urban planners (a department with international expertise) will instruct the companies with plots in a mega development to avoid duplicating nearby projects, Mubarak told Executive. “The interaction is such that we see the urban planning department as our big brother. It is a give and take that puts us on the right track. Once we have approval for the master plan, we take it to the next level.”

The UAE real estate companies, with their massive capitalization and 0-to-100-in-four-seconds attitude, are young giants bursting with developmental vigor, and the money it takes to make good on their ambitions. Coming generations will have to answer if the many mega plans and master projects in the region are sustainable and put together in the right proportions to serve their stakeholders and have been blessed with that mysterious touch that turns a drawing-board urban design into a fascinating, eminently livable location. Cultural references of the literary Western past may not work in these times.

As for Mubarak, he is more than confident that Abu Dhabi will become one of the world’s great capitals and that the growth of the near future will be something to behold. “I can see [Abu Dhabi’s] population doubling or tripling in five years. We want families to come and live here. All projects in Abu Dhabi are planned for generations,” he says. And: “The next two years will be a very exciting time.”

October 1, 2007 0 comments
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By Invitation

At a Crossroads: The Middle East transport and logistics industry

by Fadi Majdalani & Ulrich Koegler September 21, 2007
written by Fadi Majdalani & Ulrich Koegler

The Middle East has historically been a trade route for merchants, prized for its connections to both Europe and Asia. This history has laid the groundwork for a vast transportation and logistics network that is slowly emerging in the region and could be a significant source of economic growth for many years to come. The Middle East’s geographic location and excellent accessibility by air, land, and sea put it in a prime position to serve as a trade hub.

The trade volume between Europe and Asia is likely to continue to grow, as Asia has become a key production and manufacturing region for the Western world. Traditionally, air freight carriers used to stopover in the Middle East to refuel, halfway along this trade lane, and will continue to do so to maximize freight loads. However, volume growth on the Europe-Asia trade lane has increased the need for shippers to use larger vessels and apply more advanced logistics concepts. With product cycles speeding up, demand becoming less predictable, and companies managing their stock more closely, sea freight increases the risk of carrying outdated items. As air freight remains too expensive for most goods, the option of a conversion from cost-effective sea to air freight while en route becomes more significant. The Middle East is a natural location for sea-to-air conversion.

Beyond its potential as a global hub along the Europe–Asia trade lane, the Middle East can establish regional transport and logistics hubs serving northern and central Africa, Pakistan, and the Caucasus. The region has equal proximity to all these markets and very good connectivity by road and short sea transport. These markets currently lack access to competing regional centers, such as Europe and South Africa, and cannot yet afford the required infrastructure investments. Furthermore, as companies optimize their supply chains, it makes sense for them to establish a single regional distribution center in the Middle East for all of these markets. Increasing production capacity also underscores the need for a strong regional logistics sector.

Public Policy Steps for a Strong Industry

As Middle Eastern governments embark on the development of the transport and logistics sector to drive economic growth, it should be clear that the opportunities are not equally available to all countries. Hence, governments should consider four key building blocks for developing a successful transport and logistics sector strategy.

1. Choose a strategic play for the sector with appropriate infrastructure. The correct choice of one of the three strategic plays described hereafter needs to be based on a thorough and honest assessment of the qualifying factors. The global multimodal transport and logistics hub strategic play is the most demanding option, requiring a preferred geographic location and huge investments to create infrastructure incorporating a world-class airport and port zone. It also demands an economic environment that attracts foreign direct investment; the availability of a large free zone around the port-airport infrastructure; highly competitive handling charges; and living standards that accomodate a large expatriate community. However, there are very few truly global hubs: We predict that there is an opportunity to establish two global hubs in the region, and one will likely be Dubai.

The regional logistics and distribution hub strategic play requires similar elements but is less demanding in terms of overall size and multi modality. However, services and processes must adhere to the same high standards; the infrastructure must simultaneously provide good connections to global hubs and exporting countries, as well as excellent links to neighboring regional markets, via a strong road and short sea infrastructure. A few traditional gateways to the Middle East such as the Nile Delta, the Red Sea ports, Kuwait’s coastal area, and the northern shores of the Gulf could develop into regional hubs.

Finally, countries that cannot meet the needs of a global or regional hub play should focus on the development of domestic transport and logistics services.

2. Adjust policies and regulations to promote sector development. These should promote foreign direct investment, provide a liberal economic environment, and allow for full foreign ownership of the respective local entities.

3. Optimize government services to meet the demand of the logistics sector. The key government services required by the logistics sector fall into three areas: business and equipment licensing, regulatory oversight and competitive regulation, and customs services. Optimization of government services in the first two areas should be part of a broader economic development program to promote and foster entrepreneurial activity. Transactional customs services should be automated as much as possible and seamlessly integrated into the logistics service providers’ order management systems.

4. Promote the development of national transport and logistics champions. In most countries in the region, the industry structure of transport carriers and logistics service providers is still highly fragmented and often not developed.

The development of a strong domestic transport and logistics sector is a strategic imperative for economic development in the Middle East. The countries that succeed at establishing sustainable networks can expect to see increased economic activity, improved industry competitiveness, and growth in job opportunities. Those that do not, however, may find themselves falling by the wayside.

September 21, 2007 0 comments
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Comment

Musings from Arab America

by Norbert Schiller September 21, 2007
written by Norbert Schiller

During our holidays this summer we were fortunate to be able to stay with my wife’s extended Lebanese family on both the east and west coasts of the United States. It had been almost six years since we last visited, and I must say that staying in an Arab-American household lessened the shock of fitting into the American way of life; a kind of decompression chamber if you will. Behind closed doors nothing really changed; the family was as tight-knit as ever and if it wasn’t for the green lawn outside the window and the lack of blowing horns and shouting in the streets we could have all been sitting in Beirut.

Both Lebanese-American families we stayed with were forced to leave during war. The husband of my wife’s cousin, who is originally Palestinian, remembers when in 1948, at the age of eight, he was forced to flee his village in northern Palestine after the Arab armies advised the inhabitants to leave because “the Jews are coming to take your land.” He made his way to southern Lebanon by holding onto the tail of his uncle’s donkey. On the east coast, my wife’s brother and his wife fled Lebanon for the United States in the mid-1980s, during one of the darkest chapters of the civil war.

Obviously, for my wife and her family, the first few days were consumed by relaying and absorbing Lebanese and Diaspora news: the physical changes taking place in Lebanon (the pulling down of the grand old building around the corner that once belonged to so-and-so) and how much of the country has been restored a year after the war with Israel.

However, unlike previous visits, the solid opinions that my wife’s family once held true were now blurred and the issues watered down.

When we first traveled to the States in the early days of our marriage 15 years ago, Lebanon was always on the forefront of every conversation. One misplaced word or train of thought could trigger an all out major debate on Lebanese politics that would result in phone calls to friends and family across America and even a call to Lebanon if it meant proving a point. Now that has all changed.

It’s not hard to explain this waning interest. American press coverage of the Middle East is something you have to actively seek out. Even with the 500 plus stations available to most cable subscribers, if you don’t have your own satellite hook up, you are not privy to all the international news stations like CNN International, BBC World, Al Jazeera, and LBC International. The newspapers inundate readers with local news, followed by a bit of national news and then a blurb here and there from the rest of the world. If there is something from the Middle East, it will probably be about Iraq and even then there is a good chance it will have a local angle. 

In the past, I remember always seeing a second, more international, newspaper lying around — the New York Times or Los Angeles Times — but now, with time, I notice that my wife’s family are slowly becoming more interested in the news that affected them on a daily basis. Even when we were visiting, they tended to veer away from the Middle East if some local issues, like the rise in crime, a garbage collection strike, or the bridge collapse in Minneapolis there was more anguish — “Haraam, they were just going home from work” — than for any car bomb outrage in Iraq.

One family member told my wife that she felt that her generation had “missed all the boats.” They had missed Lebanon’s golden era, caught the war and then had to endure all the insecurities of living as immigrants in the United States. And then came 9/11 with all that feeling of not belonging and being seen as outsiders. Her only consolation is that her children will hopefully feel more grounded and not live forever in search of a homeland.

September 21, 2007 0 comments
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Money Matters

by Executive Contributor September 20, 2007
written by Executive Contributor

Ithmaar Bank posts 130% in H1-07 net profits

Ithmaar Bank, a Bahrain based global investment institution, announced a 130% increase in its H1-07 net profits to $65.09 million up from $28.7 million for the same period last year. As a result of their expansion, Ithmaar experienced a tripling of operating profits from $23.7 million in the first half of 2006 to $71.1 million in the first half of 2007. Income from investment in financing amounted to $97.8 million, while $25.4 million was generated in fees and commissions and $23.1 million was generated from sale of investment securities. Total assets, including funds under management stood at $5.1 billion at the end of last June, compared to $4.4 billion at the end of last year. Ithmaar is growing at a rapid pace and is one of the most dynamic financial institutions in the region covering a wide range of Islamic financial services and investments. Ithamar’s wholly-owned Ithmaar Development Company (IDC) has made considerable progress in several major projects with the Kingdom of Bahrain and internationally.

Emaar ranked in top 10 of S&P Index

Standard and Poor’s (S&P’s) ranked Emaar Properties PJSC, the UAE-based real estate developer, in the Top 10 of IFCG Extended Frontier 150 Index for frontier equity markets. Attaining the highest weight of 5.59% in the index reflects Emaar’s strong regional presence and growing international recognition. The Extended Frontier 150 Index plans to accommodate the needs of increasingly sophisticated investors willing to expand in developed and emerging markets. This year, S&P Rating Services and Moody’s Investor Services assigned Emaar A- and A3 ratings respectively, with steady outlook reflecting the company’s strong financial profile.

IMF forecasts strong growth for Syria in 2007

In its latest report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted the strong economic performance of the Syrian economy in 2006 and has forecasted a positive outlook in 2007. According to the report the economy’s supply responsiveness, the tighter credit policy and the fiscal discipline have contributed in tightening inflationary pressures caused by the large demand shocks from Iraqi investors. The report assessed that Syria needs to maintain a strong external stability over the medium run, which can be achieved through strong fiscal adjustments, accelerated structural reforms and exchange rate flexibility. The IMF regarded the Syrian private banking sector promising despite the possible drawbacks it might face in developing reforms. In addition to that, vital action is needed for the state banks to attract the accumulation of non-performing loans and enhance competition. Finally, Syria’s economy is in need of progress in developing market-based instruments for monetary control and should reduce the excessive risk taking as well as dollarization.

September 20, 2007 0 comments
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North Africa

Tunisia  Emirati Dreaming in Tunis

by Executive Editors September 20, 2007
written by Executive Editors

Bilateral relations between the UAE and Tunisia are set to expand with leaders from both countries being keen on promoting joint-investment projects to enhance social and economic relations.

On his recent visit, HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, vice president and prime minister of the UAE, expressed that the enhancement of bilateral relations is a starting point “towards wider avenues of mutual economic, technological and tourism cooperation.” He also added that such cooperation is a significant step in “embodying the deep fraternal relations and the common history of our two countries and peoples and building new bridges between the eastern and western Arab countries.”

The most recent joint-investment agreement between the two countries was part of a ceremony held during the visit of Sheikh Mohammed to Tunisia. Together with Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the two leaders laid the foundation stone of a $14 billion real estate and investment development set to provide housing for half a million people. The mega real estate development project on the southern lake of the Tunisian capital is a joint venture between Sama Dubai, the international investment arm of Dubai Holding and the Tunisian government. The development will cover some 850 hectares and offer all the services of a satellite city, including retail and entertainment centers along with apartments, luxury hotels, a wide range of recreational and sports facilities, and up market housing.

Called the Century City and Mediterranean Gate, the development is intended to serve as a business hub, with office space for more than 2,500 international firms, with an emphasis on those in the financial sector. Businesses located there will benefit from state of the art communications infrastructure and impressive architecture. The centerpiece of the project will be two massive towers.

Additionally, the new city will play a major role in the country’s tourism industry, boasting 14 high class hotels and resorts, leisure and sporting facilities and a marina as part of the design.

Century City will be the single biggest investment project in Tunisia’s history, and will make Dubai the largest foreign investor in the country. The $14 billion price tag eclipses TECOM Investments and Dubai Investment Group’s acquisition of a 35% stake in Tunisie-Telecom in 2006 — valued at $2.25 billion.

According to Mohammad al-Gergawi, Dubai Holding’s chief executive officer, Sama Dubai expects to raise investment in Tunisia from $3 billion to $18 billion in the near future.

The potential for Century City to attract further foreign investment through companies relocating to the vast business district, drawn by the opportunities presented by a new city of up to half a million prospective customers, is undoubtedly welcomed by the Tunisian authorities.

State projections predict the work will add 0.6% to the country’s growth rate for a period of up to 15 years, and provide jobs for 130,000 people during the construction phase, pleasing statistics considering that unemployment is running at more than 14%, according to official figures.

Agreements signed between the state and Sama Dubai specify that most workers on the project will be Tunisians and the company will provide them with specialized training.

Al-Gergawi said actual work on the project will begin in the next few months. “The scheme is very important so it will be done in stages,” he commented. “It requires 10 years to be finished.” Al-Gergawi stated that Tunisia had been chosen as the site for the development by Sama Dubai because the country has potential to become a promising regional economic center, thanks to its position as a gateway to many other destinations. The growing services sector and the favorable investment regime were also strong attractions, he told a press conference in early August.

September 20, 2007 0 comments
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North Africa

Morocco  Linking the continents

by Executive Editors September 20, 2007
written by Executive Editors

The construction of an undersea tunnel linking Morocco and Spain has been on both countries’ agenda for over 25 years now. Today, the idea is closer to materializing than it has ever been before.

After rounds of geological tests and feasibility studies run by specialist independent geotechnical consultants from the Swiss engineering company Giovanni Lombardi, the project looks to get a go ahead by the end of 2007. The cost of this project has been estimated to exceed $13 billion and initial studies by engineers forecast a project length of up to 25 years.

It is predicted that the tunnel could carry 9 million passengers and 8 million tons of freight annually. There is a potential for boosting the economies of both nations as well as mutually improving tourism and trade opportunities. Currently, Moroccan exports to EU countries account for 73.8% of total export revenues and generate $12.76 billion (or 22% of current GDP) annually. In return, Morocco receives 65.1% of its total imports from the EU, the bulk of which are transport equipment and machinery, which contribute to Morocco’s automotive industries. Additionally, agricultural exporters would be set to gain a strong advantage from this transport development, being able to send some of Morocco’s more delicate exports such as flowers and tomatoes by train instead of ship.

The growth in the number of European tourists to Morocco has given further impetus to ambitions to link Spain and Morocco across the Strait of Gibraltar.

Morocco’s tourist industry witnessed a successful first half of the year with EU figures showing over 2.26 million visitors from January to June 2007, representing a 7% increase in year-on-year terms. As such, the country is keen further to improve the accessibility of its tourist sites by moving ahead with the Gibraltar tunnel project.

European tourists

According to the Moroccan Ministry of Tourism, European arrivals to Morocco account for 83% of 2007’s arrivals to date, with French visitors leading the pack with 873,000 visitors in the first six months of 2007, an increase of 4% on last year. Visitors from Spain and Britain accounted for 479,000 and 175,000 visitors respectively, with British tourist arrivals recording a 43% increase as a growing number of no-frills airlines such as easyJet and Ryanair are making the country more accessible with flights to Marrakech, Casablanca and Fez. Germany, Belgium and Italy are also important markets, each accounting for approximately 100,000 visitors. The three most popular tourist destinations have recorded growth in the number of visitors in the last six months; Marrakech has seen a rise of 12%, Casablanca recorded a 9% rise and the coastal resort of Agadir saw a 3% more visitors than in the same period last year.

The construction of the proposed Gibraltar tunnel is a joint venture between government agencies Société Nationale d’Études du Détroit (SNED) in Morocco and Sociedad Española de Estudios para la Comunicación fija a Traves del Estrecho de Gibraltar (SECEG) in Spain. The tunnel would consist of a 39 km passenger, car and freight rail line running across the strait connecting the cities of Tarifa and Tangier. Its deepest point will be 300 meters.

The next step will be to consider a number of logistical challenges. Even though the distance across the Strait of Gibraltar is 14.5 km, the challenges posed to engineers by a Morocco-Spain tunnel are far greater than challenges facing engineers during the “Chunnel” construction between England and France, which lie 32 km apart at the Strait of Dover. The water is deeper; nearly 1000 meters at the shortest route across the strait, compared with just 61 meters in the English Channel. Another challenge is the texture of the earth. The first test diggings over 10 years ago revealed that the soft earth near Tarifa is not suitable for building a structure of this type. Recent tests have re-confirmed this and so Cape Malabatta has been selected as the entrance point to Morocco, after which the tunnel will continue to Tarifa. Additional concerns include securing the tunnel against human trafficking between Africa and Europe and whether the there will be a sustainable flow of goods and people in both directions given the economic disparities between the two continents.

Yet leaders of both countries are keen on proceeding. Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has said that he is fully committed to the project. According to the minister the tunnel would “greatly speed growth, development and prosperity” on both sides of the Mediterranean. The goal behind the construction is to create “an integrated Euro-Mediterranean economic area” and possibly lead to developing the transport network further to include a link between Marrakech and Europe.

September 20, 2007 0 comments
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North Africa

Algeria  Taking out Trabendo

by Executive Editors September 18, 2007
written by Executive Editors

The part-privatization of Algeria’s ports to major operator Dubai Ports World (DPW) has been hit by a series of rolling strikes by trade unions. The potential unrest stems from talks the government is holding with DPW over the company possibly taking a 50% stake in the container terminals at the ports of Algiers and of Djen Djen, in the eastern province of Jijel.

Algiers port has reached saturation point and will need considerable investment to extend it. However, the stumbling block at the moment is the plan to include the potentially highly lucrative Djen Djen port, and disagreement over the issue of bringing in a foreign owner. Some also point to the possible disquiet of those involved in the “trabendo” economy, or contraband imports, as looking to scotch the deal to preserve their lucrative, if illegal, niche.

Djen Djen’s port is something of an oddity, having been built to serve a steel plant that was never constructed. However, it has developed as a major point for container and dry cargo transport (notably grain) abroad. The purpose-built port also benefits from very good land transportation links, as well as deep water piers accessible to ships of up to 120,000 tons.

Local media have reported that DPW made a $70 million bid for the operation of the Djen Djen port, coupled with a $120-150 million investment program to upgrade it. In June, the transport ministry announced that negotiations were making good progress.

“Dubai Ports World took into account the principal requests of the Algerian side at the time of the first round of negotiations, which was held in Algiers on June 12,” the statement said. “We will be able to advance.” The deal seemed to be likely to be finalized by year’s end, officials have been reported as saying.

However, the umbrella union Coordination Nationale des Syndicats des Ports d’Algerie (CNSPA) has objected strongly to the plans to change the port’s ownership and their employer and threatened to block the deal.

One source of discontent is the government reneging on a pledge made by the minister for investment promotion, Abdelhamid Temmar, to tender the sale internationally rather than moving immediately to negotiate directly with DPW.

CNSPA has a membership of 14,000 across all of Algeria’s 10 most important ports, giving it a great deal of leverage in the situation, as has been show in the past. Strikes by CNSPA-affiliated unions in October 2005 against government privatization and labor restructuring plans left 100 ships abandoned by workers. The Port of Oran alone, where 15 ships were left stranded, hemorrhaged $130,000 a day during the industrial action. In May of this year, another anti-privatization strike shut down almost all Algeria’s ports, causing losses of up to $2.1 million in a single day.

Guermache Abbes Maamar, the secretary-general of the Algeirs port trade union, has said that opposition to the proposed deal with DPW was in the national interest and not only an issue of workers’ rights.

Maamar questioned the wisdom of “giving away” container activity, which generates 70% of the port’s receipts, in return for the proposed investments DPW has put on the table. The unions agree that Djen Djen is in need of an overhaul, but Maamar proposed that the government work with its port management authority Entreprise Portuaire d’Alger to develop the nation’s ports, rather than using foreign firms.

“We can do everything between Algerians: to buy gantries and all the equipment to improve the output. We cannot release sovereignty on the ports,” he added.

To break the current deadlock, it has been suggested that the unions should be involved in future privatization negotiations to ease the tension and distrust. However, it seems that the CNSPA is unlikely fully to embrace partial privatization to DPW. Meanwhile, private sector companies involved in trabendo activity at the ports are also against the deal. Many are believed to be involved in illegal practices which they fear the Emirati company might eliminate if the deal goes through.

September 18, 2007 0 comments
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North Africa

Algeria  Building the Gas Bridge

by Executive Editors September 18, 2007
written by Executive Editors

Algeria, the world’s fifth largest gas producer, is supplying around a quarter of the EU’s gas imports, and is hoping to expand further into that market. Its valuable position is firming with pipelines under construction to southern Europe and liquefied natural gas (LNG) deals with northern Europe. And although Russia remains the major gas supplier for the EU, Algeria’s flexible gas sector and geographical location are factors playing in its favor.

On July 12, Algeria and the EU finalized an agreement dealing with territorial restrictions, allowing companies of EU member states that import Algerian gas the right to resell it either within their own domestic markets or to third-party countries.

In return, Sonatrach, Algeria’s state oil and gas company, will have the right to a share of the profits earned by European companies, for LNG contracts only. Sonatrach will also be allowed to sell LNG shipped by tanker directly on the European market.

The deal will consolidate Sonatrach’s position as one of the main suppliers of natural gas to the EU, with Algeria behind only Russia and Norway.

Deepening the Algeria-EU relationship

Chakib Khelil, the Algerian minister of energy and mines, said the agreement was a further step toward deepening the strategic relationship between Algeria and the EU. “Algeria supports the establishment of Sonatrach as an active player in an open, transparent and competitive EU gas market,” Khelil said at a signing ceremony in Brussels, where the final details of the deal were hammered out after lengthy negotiations.

The EU’s Competition Commissioner, Neelie Kroes, also attended the ceremony. “The agreement reached constitutes a major breakthrough in our relations with one of Europe’s most important suppliers of natural gas and eliminates an important obstacle for the creation of a single EU-wide market in gas,” said Kroes.

The agreement with Algeria was essential for the EU, having launched the fully deregulated energy market within the bloc on July 1, allowing clients to choose their preferred suppliers of electricity and gas, rather than be tied to state operated utilities that continue to dominate energy markets in some EU member states.

Algeria agreeing to allow the unrestricted sale of its gas to third parties means that its present and future contracts are now in keeping with the EU’s new open market policy. Algiers had long held out against the ending of destination restrictions, fearing the move could result in wholesale reselling of its gas without any benefits coming its way.

Algeria’s long running dispute with Spain, over restrictions on how much of the gas piped through the Medgaz gas pipeline Sonatrach is allowed to sell directly on the Spanish market, appears headed to the courts.

The Algerian company has been limited to selling no more than 1 billion cubic meters of gas annually in Spain, despite being the largest single shareholder in the Medgaz project, with a stake of 36%. Sonatrach hoped to sell up to 3 billion cubic meters of gas a year.

At the beginning of July, Khelil said that Algeria would lodge an appeal against the Spanish energy watchdog’s ruling to limit Sonatrach’s sales.

“We will lodge an appeal with the higher authorities in Spain …  as well as the European Commission,” Khelil said. “What we are asking is to be treated like any other operator, Spanish or otherwise, whether for the distribution of gas or for the shares in the Medgaz project.”

Algeria and Spain are also involved in international arbitration over Sonatrach’s demand that the price of Algerian gas imports be increased in two stages by 20%, to keep the tariff in line with world prices. At the present rate, Algeria stood to lose around $300 million annually, according to Khelil.

Only days after the agreement was signed, Algeria moved to strengthen its energy production infrastructure, announcing more than $4 billion worth of construction tenders for new processing facilities.

In mid-July, Algeria awarded French firm Total the $3 billion tender to construct and operate a cracking steam facility with the capacity to produce 1.4 million tons of ethane annually. The plant will also produce polyethylene and ethylene glycol, with Sonatrach funding 49% of the project and Total the remaining 51%.

The same day, Sonatrach and a consortium of foreign firms, including Mitsui of Japan and Kuwaiti company Qurain, were awarded the contract to build and operate a $1 billion methanol plant with a projected output of 1 million tons a year. Again, Sonatrach will hold 49% of the project, with the other members of the consortium combining to take the rest. With so many projects in the pipeline, the future of the petrochemical industry in Algeria seems to be brighter than ever.

September 18, 2007 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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