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Best Sellers

Sleepless in Lebanon

by Hadi khatib March 17, 2000
written by Hadi khatib

One look at 45-year-old Raji El
Mawla, regional manager of the
Maytag Group, and you would
probably think that life is pretty easy for this
businessman. He speaks with a calm voice
and rarely wears a suit and tie to work. But
first impressions can be deceiving.

It is 9am at Mawla’s office. He has a portable phone close to one ear and a cellular
in his hand. He is busy typing an
email to the corporate office in the US
while trying to resolve a misunderstanding
between an area manager and a distributor.
In the following hour, he manages to
schedule two or three field meetings,
respond to a few of his nearly 70 daily
emails and receive five urgent phone calls,
that he responds to in the same relaxed
manner. “Hello, what seems to be the problem
… I see … don’t worry … relax, I’m
on it as we speak … Your problem will be
solved by tonight … How’s the family?
Good … Keep up the good work, goodbye.”
After two minutes, the crisis is over.

“Easy and effective communication is
essential in this business,” says Mawla.
“People can reach me via email or cellular
24 hours a day.” Mawla must oversee the
work of four area managers based in
Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and
Tehran. He is responsible for 65 distributorship
accounts in such countries as Saudi
Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, Kuwait,
Pakistan, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco,
Senegal, and the Ivory Coast. Because of the
overlapping days and hours of operation in
the countries under his command, Mawla
works a seven-day week. With Maytag’s
corporate office in the US eight hours behind local time,

he usually does not get home until late at night.

Mawla is truly sleepless in Lebanon, but has
it paid off? The answer can be found in his
office. Sitting on a shelf is a red Everlast
boxing glove, awarded to him for reaching his
mid-year quota. Next to it are six certificates
given to him by the Iowa home office for
exceeding his quota each year since 1993.

Five years ago, when Mawla introduced
Maytag to the Middle East, it was a little
known brand. Today, it leads the pack among
US imports, both locally and regionally.
Since his promotion from area manager to
regional manager in 1994, Mawla has doubled
local sales of Maytag brands, which
include Maytag, Hoover, Magic Chef,
Admiral and Norge. Revenues have gone
from $3.5 million in 1995 to $7 million in
1999 and the company has carved out a
10% share of the local market for refrigerators,
which compose the bulk of
Maytag’s sales, which include washing
machines, floor cleaners and gas ranges.

His performance regionally has been equally
impressive, expanding revenues from
$18 million in 1995 up to $30 million in
1999. In relation to other US brands, local
market share of Maytag’s brands has grown
from 32% in 1997 to 61% in 1999, outpacing
GE, Frigidaire and Kelvinator. In Saudi
Arabia, Maytag has a 45% market share
against other US imports and in the UAE,
42% against US imports.

But what is most impressive is that Mawla
has managed to make these gains in a market
where imports of US refrigerators (the
bulk of the group’s sales) have been declining
rapidly. With the country in a recession,
people cannot afford to buy expensive US
manufactured refrigerators. As such, cheaper
Korean and locally produced refrigerators
have been slicing into the market share of the
US brands.

Statistics from the Ministry of Economy and
Trade indicate that imports of complete
American-made refrigerator units have
dropped from 36,000 units, $21 million, in 1998
down to 15,000 units, $15.7 million, in 1999 (see
“Chill in with the big boys,” February 2000).
This gives US refrigerators a 19% share of the
80,000-unit-per-year local market.

Meanwhile, Concord, a locally produced
brand which sells for at least half the price

of its US rivals, has boosted its output from
2,500 units in 1992 up to 30,000 units in
1999. Sales of popular Korean brands, such
as Samsung and LG, have also been strong.

“Until last year, GE was selling about 7,000
units per year. Last year, they started to
come down and we are taking their share.
Koreans as a whole have been coming in
strongly in the last five years,” says Antoine
Cherfane, president of AC Holdings, distributors
of Samsung refrigerators. The
Korean manufacturer has spent hundreds of
millions of dollars upgrading its manufacturing
facilities, building a state-of-the-art
robotics factory that is able to produce 2 million
units per year. The company sells some
7,500 units a year locally with sales volume
increasing at an annual rate of 25% over the
past three years, according to Cherfane.

Selim Antaki, chairman and CEO of LG
Lebanon, also reports a strong performance
for his company. With between
7,500 and 8,000 units being sold, Antaki
claims that LG refrigerators have carved out
a 10% market share. LG refrigerators are
equipped with patented new technology
called Door Cooling, a system that equalizes
airflow throughout the whole refrigerator.

“The Koreans are improving in their technology
while the Americans are sitting
idle, not really doing much,” says Gabriel
Traboulsi, general manager of Pharaon
Homeline, distributor of US-made brands
Magic Chef and Frigidaire, Taiwan’s
Sampo and France’s Brandt.

Antaki agrees: “American refrigerators
look like boxes with mechanical controls
and outdated technology that no longer

adapts to the consumer’s needs.”

But even as the demand for US refrigerators
declines, competitors admit that
Maytag remains a strong brand. “Among
other US imports, Maytag is the best
refrigerator,” says Antaki.

How did Maytag manage to do so well? A
quick look at the 17 years that Mawla has
been in this business and it is easy to understand
the secret of his company’s success.
From 1983 to 1989, he was an area manager
in Kuwait for Hoover. In 1989,
Maytag took over the Hoover operation
and the company’s two international divisions
were merged to form Maytag International.
After the Iraqi invasion, Mawla
was forced to transfer to London where he
became Maytag’s area manager for the
Gulf market, with the exception of Saudi
Arabia. In 1992, sensing an opportunity, he
brought the company to Lebanon.

Mawla’s direct management style has been
a key ingredient to turning Maytag products
into big sellers. Mawla visits all of the 65 distributors
under his control, checking on products,
quality of service, dealing with technical
problems and assisting his area managers
and distributors. “I do the product knowledge
training responsibly, and visit the service centers

randomly to make sure they are doing
their jobs properly,” says Mawla. The company
will soon have a locally based service
engineer stationed in Lebanon – for now, the
company relies on someone in London. The
engineer will visit the service centers of
wholesalers and Mawla, in turn, will check to
make sure the service engineer is doing his job
properly. He also conducts monthly and
quarterly meetings with his area managers
where he reviews market conditions, measures
the competition’s products and strategies,
evaluates achievements, reviews that year’s
plans and sets new goals.

The company also benefits from being able
to manufacture, under license, in a number of
regional countries, including Saudi Arabia,
Pakistan and soon Tunisia. This cuts the costs
by eliminating import tariffs. Mawla also
benefits from a strong product development
program. The Maytag Corporation, which
had sales in 1999 of $4.3 billion, has sunk
some $220 million into a new technology
called advanced product design (APD). The
system eliminates leaks and noise and makes
the Maytag refrigerator rust-proof. According
to US-based Consumer Reports magazine,
Maytag has been the number one preferred
refrigerator in the US for the last three years.
In February 1999, Consumer Reports ranked
Maytag’s 24-foot refrigerators first in terms
of energy cost, temperature performance,
noise and convenience.

Maytag also understands branding.
“Maytag spends heavily on advertising its
products,” says Traboulsi. Last year, the
company spent some $250,000 to host a creative
interactive TV show in Saudi Arabia, giving
away an equal $250,000 worth of Maytag
and Hoover products to winning contestants.
Locally, Maytag invests about $600,000 a year

in advertising, equal to the budget of
Concord and $100,000 more than the annual
budgets of AC Holdings and LG Lebanon.

But the main reason for Maytag’s success locally
has been its aggressive distribution network,
headed since 1995 by Nassif El Khechef,
chairman and general manager of Linkers
Group, distributor of the Maytag brand.
Khechef is also general manager of Herald
Trading Company, distributor of Hoover
since 1948, and chairman of Mangroup, distributor
of another Maytag brand called
Norge since 1998.

Khechef heads the distribution of three out
of the five Maytag brands. “Out of the 9,000
Maytag refrigerators that were brought into the
country in 1999, we imported 6,000, 75% of
sales,” says Khechef.

Linkers has a modern service and technical
center. It keeps a stock of spare parts for models
going back ten years. Khechef is responsible
for marketing brands locally in cooperation
with the suppliers. Linkers has a strong
relationship with Power Network, a high-impact

advertising and marketing company.

“I believe Maytag has the right partner by associating
itself with us and we made the right
choice by choosing them also. They have a
great product,” says Khechef. His company
also employs a well-trained sales force with
strong knowledge of the products they sell.
The group has an incentive policy for its distributors’
sales force. “The sales people are
greatly motivated. That was a smart move by
Maytag,” says Traboulsi.

Mawla knows. For a man who never rests,
motivation is his middle name. But he has his
priorities. “If you’re talking about choosing the
right partner, I have one at home. And as
long as I bring my children gifts from my trips,
they’re happy,” he says.

March 17, 2000 0 comments
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Mobility calls

by Executive Contributor March 17, 2000
written by Executive Contributor

The opening of Ericsson’s regional office in Beirut is a rare and
welcome development, since pessimism clouds Lebanon’s outlook.
Nael Salah, vice president and general manager of
Ericsson Middle East, talks to EXECUTIVE about the future
prospects for Lebanon and the region, liberalization and the
company’s strategies. Salah’s office is responsible for 12
countries in the Middle East. Last year turnover for the region
was about $600 million, with infrastructure accounting for
about 70%. Annual growth in the past three years has been
30%, and Salah expects that trend to continue in the coming
years. The company has about 40% of the mobile phone
market in Lebanon and 35% for the region, with Nokia as its
biggest competitor for handsets.

Ericsson has just opened its regional office here.
Why Beirut?

SALAH When we decided to open a regional office in the Middle
East, we looked at a number of countries. Very quickly we shortened
the list and one of them was Lebanon. I would probably guess
that the most important factor is that in Lebanon there are many people
with a very high level of education, so we can recruit locally.
That means we have continuity in our work. There are other factors
as well, such as the geographic location of Lebanon between
Europe and the rest of the Middle East.

But many business people complain about the high
level of corruption, customs and bureaucracy here,
and most prefer Dubai.

SALAH Many of those things, if they exist, are not valid for us really.
Because we are a regional office we support Ericsson companies
in the Middle East. So our business is not with the society; it’s
more with the Ericsson companies of the area. Things like dealing
with authorities can be improved and simplified in terms of, for
example, getting work permits or establishing companies. But we
don’t feel this is a major obstacle.

Do you believe Beirut still has the potential to be
some sort of hub? Some have pretty much written it off
as a financial or transport hub.

SALAH We believe that there is very good potential for Lebanon
to play a major part in the business sector of the Middle East, but
there are a number of things that have to change. We believe that
there will sooner or later be a peace settlement and there will be
stability in the region. And we believe that the authorities in
Lebanon are serious about improving the infrastructure and that they
have an important objective to reestablish Lebanon as a hub for
many companies. So if we have stability, and if the authorities make
establishing Lebanon as a hub a major objective, I don’t really see
a problem in the future.

How can Lebanon convince other companies to set up
their regional bases here?

SALAH Foreign companies would like to hear the authorities
declare the establishment of Lebanon as a hub for the Middle East.
And number two would be to have additional development of the
infrastructure. You could make telecommunications more cost
effective; compared to Europe or the United States, it’s expensive
here. Transportation in terms of the airport and roads can be
improved. Then of course I would say all those formalities — registering
companies, issuing work permits, visas — these things can
be simplified.

What are Ericsson’s strategies for increasing business
in the region?

SALAH The Middle East is a traditional Ericsson market. So we
have established relations with people in the Middle East and we
have a good understanding of how people do business here. That
helps us today, and it will help us in the future. One of the major
strategies that we have is to be near our customers, so we have offices
in many countries in the region. We don’t want to be a competitor
to our customers; Ericsson’s strategy is to be a supplier of products
and services and not to compete in the operators’ business.

We have experienced liberalization in many countries before. This
has been happening for two or three years in the Middle East, and
it will continue. We have experience in that and can give support
to our customers to help them in a changing environment.

Are there specific countries in this region where you
see particular potential for growth and in what side of
your business will the real growth happen?

SALAH We believe there will be much growth in most of the countries
in the Middle East. Of course there are many countries which
have huge potential for growth, like Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab
Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen. Other smaller countries
have a big growth rate as well, such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and
so on. We believe that the business will grow very much in cellular
infrastructure, cellular consumer products and in Internet systems
and services, so we target those areas.

What effect will privatizing part of the MPT (Ministry of
Post and Telecommunications) have on your business?

SALAH Today we are one of the major suppliers to the MPT. So I
think what we should talk about are the general advantages of having
privatization rather than having a monopoly. When we have privatization
and we have liberalization there are very obvious advantages.
Of course the market itself will expand a lot. And I believe that
we will gain from both of those things. Although we have a major share
of the business, I think the cake will be bigger. Even if we maintain
the same market share, the absolute volume of business will expand.
I’m convinced that this is very good for Lebanon in all aspects.
So we expect to see privatization within a short time.

Is a 25% stake enough to attract international investors?

SALAH My opinion is that many of the global operators are more
interested not in how much share they have in the company, but
more in what sort of business that company will be doing. I
believe that if cellular is part of that business then that would be
much more attractive.

They are on the right track. To establish a company and to sell 25%
is the first step. This 25% will increase and become a majority in the
future, or the total. In other countries in the Middle East, such as Jordan,
for example, they have sold a 40% stake to a strategic partner. In
Saudi Arabia they also have plans to privatize; they have already made
a company out of the telecommunications part of the ministry. In Oman
they have already formed a company and they are looking to privatize.
In Yemen this is also the case; they are giving two licenses for cellular.
Bahrain has already been privatized to a large extent for a long time.
In Kuwait there are two cellular companies — one was private from the
beginning and the other one started out government-owned and was
then partially sold off. There are many examples of liberalization in
the Middle East and these will increase in the future.

Is one of the biggest frustrations for Ericsson that the
cell phone companies are limited in the number of subscribers
they can have?

SALAH Of course it affects our business, so it will be positive for
us and for the telecommunications sector in general if this dispute
(between the MPT and cell phone companies) is out of the picture
as soon as possible.

What will most affect Ericsson’s business now or in the
future? Is it developments with the Internet?

SALAH Very shortly the industry will develop wireless data, which
is combining Internet and cellular telephony together. That will have
a major effect on our business. The third generation system will give
very high bandwidth between the telephone and the network for data.
Today the bandwidth is 9.6 kb/s, and that will increase very soon to
115 kb/s. With the third generation system, we’re talking about 384
kb/s. So this will give us very large bandwidth to data which means
that mobiles will be used for connecting to the Internet.

There are so many advances with cell phones, palm organizers,
laptops, getting Internet on the TV. Does this risk
a certain degree of confusion?

SALAH I don’t think it’s confusion. What is happening is that there
are many different industries which are converging together; this
is really the most important trend that will continue to develop in
the coming years. The computer industry, the communications
industry and the media or content will converge. It may be confusing
for some people, but I think it will mean simplification as well. You
will have things that have many different purposes; for example,
something like a PC will be a phone as well as a videoconference;
it’s your door to get information.

How far away is that?

SALAH I think that within about two to three years these things
will be happening on a large scale. We are already developing
the products.

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Empowering the private sector

by Sami Atallah March 17, 2000
written by Sami Atallah

The participation of the private sector in decision making is
an essential prerequisite for sound policies. This is because
it leads to policies that are compatible to the private sector
needs, reduces uncertainty in government decisions and fosters an
environment for investments. One factor attributed to the growth in
East Asia is the deliberation council, through which businesses and
government ministries and agencies discuss, debate and design policy
that is relevant to the economic sectors. In a 1997 World Bank
study, 48% of firms in South and South East Asia participated in decision
making compared to 30% of firms in the Middle East and North
Africa (excluding Lebanon), 28% in Sub-Saharan Africa, 17% in
the Commonwealth of Independent States and
16% in Central and Eastern Europe.

To what extent do Lebanese firms participate
in decision making? At first glance, it is
expected that involvement of firms in policy
making would be high. After all, Lebanon is a
private sector-based economy that avoided the
trap of statist or socialist policies that confounded
its neighbors for some time. But the
reality is in fact quite different. A survey of 250
firms conducted by the Lebanese Center for
Policy Studies in 1998 found out that only
16% of surveyed firms are involved in policy making
in one way or another. This is a lower level than firms in other Middle Eastern countries and even in Sub-Saharan
Africa. It seems that economic policy making is often done
in a vacuum with little involvement of the private sector.

A closer look at survey results shows more revealing findings.
Although just 12% of industrialists and 13% of agricultural firms have
participated in designing policies, 80% of the surveyed banks did
affect policies. Consequently, the banking sector has been performing
very well since the end of the civil war. Its record is fairly obvious:
a high growth rate of 23% in assets, 46% in shareholders’ equity in
1997, while deposits to GDP now stand at 170% (exceeding that of
developed countries), total assets to GDP of 200% (higher than high-income
economies). No sector can match the record achieved by the
banking sector. Hence, what makes the banking association — the sole
representative of banks — more effective in influencing policy making
than other associations? Three factors are at play.

The first factor is attributed to the importance of the sector in the eyes
of policy makers. Sectors that are considered to be compatible with the
beliefs and ideology of politicians for whatever reason tend to perform
better than other sectors. Hence, it is no surprise that the banking sector
— which is considered to be a pillar of the economic system in
Lebanon — has always enjoyed certain privileges. Before the establishment
of the banking association in 1959, the government had already
passed the Banking Secrecy Act. Later, it institutionalized the importance
of the association by requiring the central bank to consult with
the association on matters related to the sector. After the end of the civil
war, the government again placed the banking sector at the core of its
vision. The central bank and the banking association worked closely
together to modernize the sector. On the opposite side of the spectrum
lie industry and agriculture, which the government does not
consider to be crucial economic sectors. Hence,
the demands of their respective associations were either ignored immediately or met on an
ad hoc basis to avoid any escalation or tension.
Neither the policy makers of the independence
era nor those of the post-civil war period
have given these two sectors any significance.

The second factor that has affected the relationship
between the state and associations is
the financial leverage the former has had on
the latter. For instance, the banking sector
played a crucial role in financing the government
deficit. This was particularly important just after the end of the civil war when foreign
lending was not available. The banking sector bought 90% of
government T-bills. No other business association could match the
leverage that the banking sector had.

The third variable is the quality of the associations. Here I refer to
the objective, size, level of representation, dynamism and the activities
of the association. Business associations that have well-defined
goals representative of their sectors, are financially resourceful and practice
democratic rules in elections tend to be more effective. Again, the
banking association is a case in point. It has clear goals, represents all
the banks in Lebanon, has a relatively high budget, which allows a larger
scope of activities, and conducts elections every two years.

The absence of an accountable political system that would have
allowed the associations to lobby ministers and members of parliament
makes their work harder. However, until then, some work
needs to be done to the internal structure of the associations. Are
they ready to meet this challenge? That’s not clear.

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A failing grade

by Robert Tuttle March 15, 2000
written by Robert Tuttle

Remember all the glowing clichés you’ve heard about
Lebanon? A bastion of capitalism within a sea of controlled
economies, a regional hub, the Switzerland of the Middle
East. With relatively low tax rates and banking secrecy, Lebanon
must be one of the freer economies in the Middle East, if not the
world, right? Think again.

The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal, in their
recently released 2000 Index of Economic Freedom, ranked
Lebanon as number 90 among 160 countries (see chart), placing
it in the “mostly unfree category.” Lebanon found itself even
with such countries as Guyana, Madagascar and Moldova. Even
worse, it scored one point below Mongolia and three points below
Guinea and Ghana, while Fiji, Nigeria and Papua New Guinea
ranked just below Lebanon, tied at number 94. (Ratings are based
on 1998 statistics.)

Conducted annually since 1995, the survey has become something
of a benchmark for measuring the ease of doing business
in a country. Rankings are based on ten
broad factors of economic freedom: trade
policy, the fiscal burden of government,
government intervention in the economy,
monetary policy, capital flows
and foreign investment, banking,
wages and prices, property
rights, regulation and the
black market. Each factor is
scored from one to five and
averaged to determine the final grade. The
higher the score, the greater the government
interference in the economy and the lower the economic
freedom. Hong Kong topped the list of “free”
economies with a score of 1.3. Trailing the pack are repressed
economies like North Korea, which scored five. Lebanon’s score
was 3.2, below average, not only by world standards, but also by
regional standards. Among 17 countries in the Middle East,
Lebanon ranked 11th.

The study showed a direct correlation between the per capita GDP
and the level of economic freedom. “Countries with greater economic
freedom have a faster rate of economic growth and a higher
standard of living,” says Nassib Ghobril, an analyst at Lebanon
Invest. “The study is used by policy makers and investors to
assess the investment climate in a country. If a company were to
set up an office here, obviously it would want more business-friendly
policies. It’s not the country of choice. Why not set up in
Jordan, or the UAE, which is second only to Bahrain?”

Why did Lebanon score so poorly? Ghobril points to three important factors.
First, Lebanon scored a maximum of five on trade policies. High
tariffs and surcharges on imports are the main culprits.
According to IMF statistics, trade taxes account for more than
70% of the total taxes collected by the government. In an attempt
to control the high deficit, the government has increased tariffs over
the past several years. This will make the country’s hopes of joining
the WTO and the Euro-Med agreement difficult, as both deals
would require a general phasing out of trade barriers.

Lebanon has signed free trade agreements with Syria, Egypt and
Kuwait as well as the Arab common market agreement. “But still
overall the tariffs are considered very high,” says Ghobril.

Lebanon also scored five in the “black market” category, largely on
account of its rather porous border with Syria and its thriving
business in unauthorized cable television and pirated software.

Lebanon’s score was also disappointing
– 3.5 – on the fiscal burden of government, which includes income and corporate
taxation plus government expenditures. With a top income
tax rate in 1998 of 10%, Lebanon received a two for taxation. But
that was averaged with a score of five for expenditures, which were
almost 44% of GDP in 1998. Even in some areas where Lebanon
prides itself on openness, the results were disappointing. The
country received a three, “moderate barriers,” for capital flows and
foreign investment. According to the US Department of Commerce,
“Lebanon offers the most liberal investment climate in the Middle
East, with no significant restrictions on foreign investment.” The
report disagrees: “It restricts the amount of real estate a foreigner
may own and needs an efficient investment approval regime.”

It was not all bad news, however. Because of a “low level of
restrictions,” Lebanon received a two for its banking sector and on
prices and wages. As another bright spot, the index showed a modest
improvement from last year, when Lebanon scored 3.25. But
the score for 2000 is still far below its 1997 score of 2.95. And not
everyone agrees with the index’s rating. Kamal Hamdan, an economist
with the Consultation and Research Institute, feels that
Lebanon was under-rated in a number of areas. Trade barriers may
be high by international standards but by regional standards they
are not unusual, he argues. Hamdan also questioned how Lebanon
scored a five for black market, while Nigeria, which he believes has
a far worse problem, scored a three. The five for government expenditures
is also unfair, he says, because the survey calculates the
money spent on debt servicing. “I think Lebanon should be among
the top 30 to 50 countries,” he says. Marwan Iskandar, head of MI
Associates, agrees: “I think that these measures are rather arbitrary.
I would not give much credence to a study like this.”

There are reasons for hope and despair for next year. The “black market”
rating may improve if the new intellectual property rights law,
passed by parliament last spring, is enforced. On the down side, corporate
tax was raised from 10% to 15%, while the top income tax bracket
was increased from 10% to 21%. That could affect next year’s score.

OK, so Lebanon might not be a bastion of capitalism, but at least
it’s a nice place to live, right? Well, actually no, according to another
survey by international consulting firm William M. Mercer. It
ranked Beirut 168th out of 218 cities based on quality of living. The
survey was based on 39 standards including political, economic and
environmental factors, personal safety and health, education, transport
and other public services. Among the notable cities that beat
Beirut were Medellin, Colombia, the cocaine capital of the world,
and Cairo, Egypt, where the smog is so bad that a walk on the Nile
can cause lead poisoning. At the top of the list were Vancouver,
Canada and Zurich, Switzerland. At the bottom: Brazzaville and
Pointe Noire, Congo and Khartoum, Sudan. Well, at least in
Lebanon, we can ski in the morning and swim in the afternoon. Then
again, who would bother?

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Budget Banter

by Peter willems & Kirsten Vance March 15, 2000
written by Peter willems & Kirsten Vance

The first few days of February are probably not
a time finance minister George Corm would like
to relive. Before his 2000 budget could be
passed through an unruly parliament, Corm
was the target of three sessions of scathing
attacks. With some of the nastiest remarks
struck from the record, Corm was accused of
hallucinating and his policies called failures. The
“Cormic genius” was blamed for slowing economic
growth, increasing unemployment and
precipitating the brain drain.

By Peter Willems and Kirsten Vance

But were these accusations fair? EXECUTIVE spoke with the
finance minister, analysts and economists to discuss the
issues. “It doesn’t matter if the budget deficit comes in a little
above or below the target. It’s still way too high. There’s no reason
to rejoice,” says Nassib Ghobril, an analyst at Lebanon Invest.

Within the 2000 budget, the deficit is targeted at 37%. Last year the
government aimed for the budget deficit to be reduced to 40% and beat
it by hitting 38%. (The government also beat its total deficit expectations
of 44%, coming out with 42%.) “The target this year is still
high, which means they will most likely meet it,” says Ghobril.

Why didn’t the budget come out with a lower target? “On the
expenditure side in 1999, we were able to cut heavily on a lot of allocations,”
says Corm. “This year, knowing that we have had a social
crisis over eight or nine years, we increased allocations for education,
social services and health services sharply. With this we have
only a 37% budget deficit.”

By speculating if the government will hit its target this year, one
has to first look at the revenue side. The government’s plan to bring
in $3.57 billion (an 8% increase compared to last year) was based on
a GDP growth rate of 1.8%. “We know that economic growth was
practically zero in 1999, and what we expect for this year is not any
better,” says economist Elie Yachoui. He may not be far off.

According to The Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) first-quarter
report on Lebanon, the GDP growth rate is forecast at 0.5% for 2000.

Not so, says Corm. “It’s impossible to calculate
the growth rate in Lebanon. Anybody
who says ‘I can calculate it’ is a charlatan. I
will not believe in any growth rate. I have
published the estimates of the IMF that
spent three weeks here in June, and they
know Lebanon. They are specialized in this
country, and they said 2% last year.”

More
specifically, the minister pointed out that
there is no link between economic growth
and tax receipts in Lebanon for now. The tax
system concentrates on the productive sector,
“which is highly concentrated on a few large
taxpayers. The tax system is not diversified.”

An improvement in tax collection, even
with a low growth rate, would have a greater
impact on increasing revenues than strong
economic growth alone, Corm argues.

That leads to another sore point. Freddie
Baz, the advisor to the chairman at Banque
Audi, stresses several important paths that the
government must follow to bring down the
deficit. One is improving tax collection,
instead of raising taxes in a recessionary
environment. It has been estimated that there
is a 70% tax evasion rate. “When I feel that my
tax administration is behaving well for taxpayers, and the taxpayers continue to evade
us by under-reporting profits, then I will take
measures,” says Corm. “But there is corruption
with tax officials; it’s very well known.
I’m moving forward. I’ve taken measures
against four people. But in this country,
progress has to be incremental unless you go
to a military dictatorship, a Pinochet of some
kind, which I’m not a part of.”

Getting tax collectors in line is essential. But
some think that enforcing tax collection is just
as important. “All taxpayers must be equal
in front of the law. We have an army. We have
internal security forces. We can turn to them
to increase collection,” says Yachoui.

Even though improving tax collection
is a slow mover, tax reform is on the cards for
2000, including taxing properties built illegally
on the coast and a turnover-based tax on
corporations. Also to come around in 2001 is
the introduction of VAT, designed to bring in
the sharpest rise in overall tax revenues and
allow the government to reduce customs.

Several economists argue that there is not
enough transparency in Lebanon for VAT to
be effective. “The international experience is that it induces people to become more transparent, especially those
who invest,” says Corm.

There are complaints about the government’s slow pace in privatizing
state enterprises. Some argue that speed is of the essence in order to
take a bite out of the debt. “There are two ways to privatize: Either you
do it the Russian way – selling to the mafia – which our government
won’t do, or we do it according to the best practice,” says Corm. “A
lot of progress has been made. There is the law that has been finished.
It should be approved by the parliament within the next two months.
It took ten years for privatization to be completed in Morocco.”

Privatization should generate between $4 billion and $5 billion by the
end of 2003. But according to Yachoui, if that’s broken down to $1.25
billion between 2000 and 2003, and debt servicing continues at $2.5
billion annually, privatization will not even cover debt servicing, which
devours 45% of government expenditures.

Yachoui stresses that privatization
is not nearly as important as changing the government’s monetary
policy. He believes that because the monetary policy is too tight,
interest rates are too high. If interest rates were reduced, that would help
relieve debt servicing and increase liquidity in the market. Corm also
sees the importance of loosening up the monetary policy.

Also on the side of expenditures, public sector wages account for
33% of expenditures. According to one report, the government has
up to 60,000 redundant employees. The general consensus is that the
bloated public sector must be trimmed, and better now than later. But
Corm argues that reducing staff is a misconception and is not on the
government’s agenda. “The 33% includes the army and those on pensions
who are not active in service. If you reduce the number of civil
servants, they will soon be on a pension. So the impact in terms of
saving on the budget is nil. There’s a lot of talk about this issue, but
it’s told by people who don’t know what they’re talking about.”

But don’t forget: This year’s budget is only one part of the five-year
plan. The government’s objective is to reduce the budget deficit from
11% to 4.5% of GDP and the debt from 130% to 96.3% of GDP, along
with reaching an annual economic growth rate of 5% by 2003. “It’s
a good budget,” says Baz, “but it won’t be a speedy way to reach the
final objective. To reach the final objective in a short period of time,
this is not the way.”

March 15, 2000 0 comments
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Editorial

Young and restless

by Executive Staff March 15, 2000
written by Executive Staff

EXECUTIVE is always on the prowl for companies that will open their
doors – and their books. Not easy in Lebanon. It took us six
months to break into Obegi and get the goods. With the younger generation
now at the helm of one of Lebanon’s largest and most successful
businesses, they allowed us to take a close look at the family’s
diverse group of operations. Georges Obegi, 35, heads the consumer
products division (worth $71.8 million in revenues), while his brother
Yordan, 44, runs the chemical side of the business (worth $82 million).
They provided us with details on how they got where they are today
and what’s in store for the future.

Youth also comes into play in the emerging Internet industry. Imad
Tarabay, 27, sold his Internet service provider Lynx to a US multinational
less than a year after starting up. Mergers and acquisitions are
almost non-existent in Lebanon, because old-school tradition still dominates
the business environment.

In Lebanese companies, women are still a rare find in management,
especially in upper managerial positions. Advancement has been made
difficult because of cultural baggage and other barriers. There are hopes
that the next generation will help tip the balance, even if change has so
far been slow.

But successive governments have put Lebanon in a bind. Those leading
the country today must take responsibility for the massive debt and the
unacceptably high deficit to bring the economy back to life. The
younger generation should not have to pay the price.

March 15, 2000 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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