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Levant

2006 a good year for Jordan’s ad sector: One-third rise in spending

by Executive Staff March 12, 2007
written by Executive Staff

Jordan’s advertising sector has recorded its best-ever year, driven in part by competition in the booming telecommunications sector.

In 2006, $215 million was spent on advertising, a 33% rise on the previous year’s figure of $162 million. While, in regional terms, Jordan’s advertising industry is still a relatively small player, accounting for just 3% of the Middle East’s total expenditure, it has registered strong growth for all but one of the past six years and has expanded to embrace all mediums.

The largest single advertiser in Jordan last year was the telecommunications sector, which spent $31.4 million to promote its services to the public. With four mobile phone companies now operating in the tight Jordanian market, competition is fierce and an appealing advertising campaign can be crucial to attracting new customers and wooing others away from rivals.

According to Mustapha Tabba, the newly-appointed president of the Jordanian chapter of the International Advertising Association, the battle between the big three telecommunications companies, Fastlink, MobileCom and Umniah, has been a prime factor in boosting advertising expenditure.

Banking, entertainment sectors big spenders

Other big spenders in advertising last year were the banking and finance sector, which contributed $23 million, the service industry, which spent $18.7 million and the entertainment and leisure sector, which accounted for $16.8 million.

“The marketing and communications industry is now widely considered to be one of the key sectors driving economic growth in the country and the region as a whole,” said Tabba. “For Jordan and our industry, the future looks very bright. We expect 2007 to carry on the same trend of high growth levels.”

In the past, the sector had come under fire for the low quality of many of its products, both in the levels of creativity and technical standards. However, the situation is changing.

The rapid development of Jordan’s information and technology industry, strongly promoted by the government, has found skilled designers coming up through the ranks to provide the technical know-how to turn the creative concepts of writers into reality.

Increased exposure to regional and international production standards, combined with the entry into the Jordanian advertising sector of some of the heavyweights of the global industry, including Saatchi & Saatchi, Young & Rubicam, BBDO and Ogilvy & Mather, has seen a lifting of quality.

Another factor is client demand for better advertisements, along with vastly increased budgets being made available to agencies.

According to Sharif Abukhadra, chairman of The Holding Group, which includes one of the country’s leading advertising agencies, TEAM Young & Rubicam, the industry is reaching new heights.

“The standard of creativity continues to rise in Jordan,” he said after TEAM Young & Rubicam took the top two prizes in the Jordan section of the international Pikasso d’Or Awards, presented on February 12.

Currently, daily newspapers draw the lion’s share of advertising expenditure, 77% of the national total, with weeklies, television, billboards, radio and monthly magazines combining to split the remainder.

However, television’s slice of the pie is predicted to increase with the opening up of the market to private operators, while the long-favored outdoor advertising segment is expected to take a hit after the Amman municipality passed new regulations to reduce the placing of billboards on buildings in the capital.

Under the new regulations, announced at the end of January, many of the billboards that now adorn Amman’s buildings will have to be removed by March.

Outdoor advertising comprises only a small percentage of total expenditures and, in any case, analysts believe most of the money spent on billboards will be redirected to other forms of promotion.

March 12, 2007 0 comments
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Levant

Turkish export growth set to boom: Raft of FTAs to fuel growth

by Executive Staff March 12, 2007
written by Executive Staff

This year is expected to see considerable growth in Turkish exports. While the government has made bold growth projections on the outflow of Turkish goods, exporters remain concerned about a number of obstacles that hinder trade.

“We have set our year-end target at $100 billion,” said State Minister for Foreign Trade Kursad Tuzmen in a recent statement to the press. This is an impressive spike given that Turkey earned $86 billion in 2006, with 2009 expected to fetch as much as $125 billion, based on a report prepared by the Turkish Exporters’ Assembly. Germany, Britain and Italy take the lion’s share of Turkish products, which translate into $9.7 billion, $6.8 billion and $6.7 billion worth of goods respectively.

Diversification of exports constitutes one plank in the government initiative to achieving sustainable performance and increase Turkey’s share in world trade. Manufactured goods dominate exports, followed by agricultural goods and mining. According to official figures from the end of 2005, these three areas represented 84.8%, 13.2% and 2.1% of exports respectively. Textiles and ready-made-clothing currently stands at 22-23% of total exports, amounting to $5-6 billion. A shift in the composition of industrial exports towards more sophisticated, capital intensive and high-value-added sectors continues, with electrical machinery and transportation equipment on the rise. The white goods sector alone registered a 34% rise in exports in 2006. Chemicals, machinery and office equipment also continue to grow.

Turkey commits to trade ties

Turkey’s commitment to strengthen trade with regional and neighboring states, as well as with Africa, Asia and the US, will also play an indispensable role in ensuring significant export growth. Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Palestine have been notable in this regard. The much-heralded FTA with Egypt came into force in February, while that with Syria went online in January. The Turkish parliament is expected to ratify the trade agreement that was signed with Albania in December some time around May.

The Turks in the meantime continue negotiating free trade deals with Algeria, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Chile, Venezuela, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina. Closer to home, Turkey is also working on FTAs with Lebanon, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and the Faroe Islands. The Foreign Trade Undersecretariat (DTM) is scheduled to initiate FTAs with Georgia, Montenegro, Kosovo and Serbia in the first half of 2007.

Overvalued lira not helping matters

Still, Turkish exporters refer to a number of trade-related hurdles. An over-valued currency has hardly helped maximize Turkey’s export potential, as reflected in the country’s trade balance. The foreign trade deficit increased by 25.4% year-on-year between January and November 2005 and 2006, reaching $48.7 billion. Delays at Customs holding up trucks transporting perishable goods across to neighboring states are also bad for business. The inconsistent application of rules at Customs offices, combined with the short duration of the Schengen visas granted to Turkish truckers (currently 45 days) contribute to concern, as both cost time and money.

Meanwhile, the trade deficit remains a pressing issue for the government. Imports of capital and intermediate goods, high oil and raw material prices in 2006, along with substantial growth in private sector investments, have all weighed down on balances. Increasing exports is not only important for balancing the scales in trade, but is also part of the formula to raise national income per capita and reduce unemployment, which was placed at 9.3% between September and November 2006.

March 12, 2007 0 comments
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Levant

Syria looks to increase Indian trade: Delhi the No. 3 foreign investor

by Executive Staff March 9, 2007
written by Executive Staff

Having enjoyed considerable and profitable success with both Iran and China, Syria is now turning its attention to another of the emerging giants of Asia—India.

Like China, India has been increasing its profile in the Middle East, seeking new markets for exports and ramping up investments so as to gain a stake in the energy sector and to open trade doors. India’s booming information technology (IT) industry is also looking to the region, where countries such as Syria are just entering the next stage of the technology and communications revolution.

In 2006, India was one of the largest non-Arab investors in Syria. Though well behind front-runner Iran, which accounted for half of the $800 million of investments from non-Arab nations, India came in a respectable third with $84 million, just behind neighbor and rival China, which contributed $100 million to the total.

India’s contribution to Syrian foreign investment looks even more healthy when it is considered that fourth-ranked Germany directed just $24 million, while total European investments added up to $155 million.

Small-scale investments to date

Most of the Indian investments in Syria to date have been relatively small scale, mainly in the energy sector. However, this is something Damascus is seeking to change.

In mid-January, Fouad Issa al-Jouni, the Syrian industry minister, was in the Indian city of Bangalore to tout his country’s investment potential. Taking part in the annual Partnership Summit staged by the Confederation of Indian Industry, he said his country had much to offer Indian investors.

Syria is a good option for investment with its unique geographical location, diversified economy, ongoing trade liberalization process and good infrastructure base, al-Jouni said.

Al-Jouni also said that his visit would allow him and members of the accompanying delegation of Syrian businessmen to get acquainted with the latest technological and economic developments in India, and to promote Syria’s major industrial advancement and available investment potential.

Another prominent figure to recently give a sales pitch for Syria was India’s ambassador to Damascus, G. Mukhopadhyaya. Addressing the Federation of Andhra Pradesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry in the Indian city of Hyderabad on January 9, the ambassador described Syria as an untapped market for investors.

Immense potential for India in Syria

Saying that there had been a major liberalization of the Syrian banking and finance sectors, Mukhopadhyaya said these offered good business opportunities.

There was also immense business potential for Indian businesspeople in the country’s pharmaceutical sector, railways, information technology, education, tourism, construction, agro-processing, textiles and textile machinery industries.

Another move to deepen cooperation came on December 18, 2006, when the Federation of Syrian Chambers of Commerce signed a memorandum of understanding with the Indian Merchants’ Chamber outlining plans for cooperation and promotion of bilateral business relations between the two groups.

March 9, 2007 0 comments
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Dollar not what it used to be

by Riad Al-Khouri March 1, 2007
written by Riad Al-Khouri

The US dollar may still be king in terms of foreign-exchange reserves and denomination of international transactions, but the American currency is no longer absolute monarch of the global economy. The yawning US trade deficit and a huge overhang of debt denominated in greenback are causing concern regarding its reserve currency status. Since the middle of the 20th century, most countries have held the majority of their foreign exchange reserves in dollars. This means that the greenback is constantly in demand, whatever the underlying need for US products; now, with massive trade and budget deficits to finance, Americans are increasingly reliant on that status. The unprecedented weight of US liabilities means that a threat to the dollar’s dominance could result in a currency collapse.

Under present conditions, can dollar hegemony last? The Russians for one don’t think so, having since last spring openly questioned the greenback’s pre-eminence as the world’s reserve currency. At that time, Russia’s central bank held 60% of its reserves in dollars, 33% in euros and 7% in British pounds, but has since been busily diversifying, including an increase in Japanese yen holdings to several percentage points. The share of the yen in global foreign exchange reserves had declined to under 4% by the end of 2005 from over 6% at end-1999. However, with the Japanese currency looking undervalued, Russia, among others, may be adding more of it to their reserves and end-2006 global figures for official yen holdings should see them rising closer to late 90s levels.

With the world’s third largest official foreign exchange holding, which grew over 50% last year, Russia’s challenge to the dollar’s supremacy has fuelled speculation that other central banks could increasingly diversify. That in particular includes China, which is shifting away from dollars, a highly significant move as Chinese have the world’s largest reserves, about a trillion dollars at the end of 2006 and growing at a rate of $30 million an hour. Other Asian central banks have lost their appetite for holding dollars, with Japan also moving out of US debt instruments. Elsewhere in the world, Sweden in 2006 cut its dollar holdings from 37% of central bank reserves to 20%, with the euro’s share rising to 50%. Some OPEC countries are unloading US Treasuries at the fastest pace in more than three years; in particular, Iran in 2006 pledged to move its reserves away from the US dollar and into currencies such as the euro. Closer to home, Syria has just announced that it replaced the dollar with the euro for half of its foreign currency reserves. Given the tension between Washington and Damascus, such a move had been foreseen for some time, especially as the Syrian government at the start of 2006 issued an official circular instructing all ministries and state companies to adopt the euro instead of the dollar for foreign transactions. However, decisions such as these are not made just on the strength of emotional or diplomatic considerations: it is economically and financially smart for Syria to shift into euros, irrespective of the political correctness of the move. By the same token, what should be interesting to watch in 2007 will be how the central banks of other Arab countries, including Lebanon and Jordan, with local currencies pegged to the dollar and strong political ties to Washington, are able to move away from over-reliance on greenback reserves.

Arab banks cutting back on dollar reserves

However, whatever the Arabs do, the trend against the dollar is clear and possibly permanent. There are now more euros banknotes and coins in circulation worldwide than dollars, but the greenback remains the world’s most important reserve currency, though less significant than in the ’90s. The dollar’s share of global reserves dropped to under 67% at the end of 2005 from 71% in 1999, while the euro’s portion increased during the same period to over 24% from under 18%. Today, it is estimated that about 65% of foreign central bank exchange reserves are held in dollars, versus around 25% in euros, with the dollar exchange rate weakening 10% against the euro over the past year. The rise of gold is yet another sign that the dollar is not what it used to be. After central banks in various countries unloaded the yellow metal back in the ’90s, it is now making a comeback.

As the rest of the world continues to abandon the dollar as the global reserve currency, Americans will find borrowing more expensive. The US can maintain a large trade deficit only if foreigners continue to hold large numbers of dollars as their reserve currency, and that looks increasingly unlikely. Though holding a drop in the ocean of world reserves, the Syrians seem to have got it right, but how long will America’s friends in other Arab capitals continue to prop up the US consumer by holding on to dollar reserves? What the Saudis and their neighbors do with their dollars will mean a lot to America in 2007 as other countries continue to abandon the greenback.

RIAD KHOURY is an economist director of MEBA Ltd Amman and a senior associate at BNI, Inc. New York. 

March 1, 2007 0 comments
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Banking & Finance

Banking on shariah finance: Islamic banks on rise

by Executive Staff March 1, 2007
written by Executive Staff

It happened at an international conference promoting Islamic real estate financing last month in Amman. After a session detailing product trends in real estate financing that meet the requirements of shariah, an American listener working in a real estate business in Jordan stood up and said, “I am completely confused about the products you have, but it sounds all very interesting.”

The man was not alone. Panelists presenting the latest models for Islamic real estate financing at the event said apologetically at several points that their explanations would “increase the confusion” of listeners, especially when questions ventured into the ethical underpinnings of specific Islamic products. Instead of trumpeting new flashy deals between Islamic bankers and regional real estate investors, speakers overall had their hands full with building awareness in a meeting that showed how the complexity of Islamic financial concepts in the past five years has grown faster than the corresponding knowledge base in the regional investor community.

As one example, sukuk—asset-backed securities that are employed in growing numbers for securitization operations with real estate as underlying assets—have ballooned into 17 different varietals on record with the Accounting & Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAIOFI). The first modern sukuk was issued as simple arrangement but five years ago by the government of Malaysia.

In the retail market, the contracts and models for Islamic real estate finance have sprouted from relatively simple mudaraba transactions (in which a bank purchases a property and resells it to its client at a fixed higher price payable in installments) to multi-layered deals that include leasing (ijara), diminishing joint ownership (diminishing musharaka), and parallel and mixed leasing agreements.

The United Kingdom has acted as center for developing these shariah-compliant products, said Tariq Hameed, a partner in British law firm Norton Rose. However, when pressed for numbers and the UK market size for the Islamic product marvels, he estimated the number of existing contracts at 5,000 home finance deals—out of 410,000 Muslim households in the country. “Many Muslim families in the UK don’t trust that the contracts really are shariah-compliant,” he offered as explanation.

Lots of room for growth

In Jordan, the size of the Islamic housing market also has a lot of room for optimists. Jordan Islamic Bank (JIB), one of two shariah-compliant banks in the Hashemite Kingdom, has records of $700 million worth of home finance agreements—but that is a lifetime achievement of the bank in the past quarter century. The numbers for 2006 are a modest $45 million for JIB out of an estimated $70 to $80 million in Islamic house finance deals by all Jordanian providers last year, an advisor to JIB told Executive.

And for sukuk, while the papers are growing impressively in issue size and total numbers, the majority of investors come from a conventional background, with interests that are not driven by the Islamic aspect of the complex structures.

Islamic finance is, by definition, a practice of business which adheres to rules that transcend the mere mechanisms of the markets. Drawing strength from its roots and the blessings of wealth in Muslim societies, Islamic finance took shape between the early 1960s and late 1980s and has gained greatly in international stature since the mid 1990s. As such, modern Islamic finance for the past decade or so has with increasing vigor addressed the formidable challenge of conducting business activity in a manner that is satisfactory through both its economic rewards and its religious purity.

A very big part of this process has been and still is to set standards that meet the requirements of two very complex and inherently demanding systems: shariah law and the latest economic science. Creating standards that fuse these two realms into a winning partnership is the chosen task of organizations such as the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB), which was established in 2002 in Malaysia as international body of regulators and Islamic financial institutions.

The IFSB hosted a seminar on real estate financing standards back to back with the Amman conference last month and is generally very busy this year, with eight major event packages that discuss topics from legal issues to the “European challenge” for the industry.

This standard-setting and dissemination enthusiasm goes hand in hand with the growing awareness and expansion of Islamic financial services to highly developed conventional financial markets in Japan, where the central bank has shown interest in the specialty, and Europe, where the UK authorities have been taking steps to ease the facilitation of Islamic finance and where France recently has started considering a regulatory framework that will accommodate Islamic banking.

But there are signs suggesting that the course of Islamic finance is entering another phase of its development. In the past three years, more and more financial firms and general corporations in the Gulf region have been converting their operations to become shariah-compliant. However, as a survey by the IFSB showed last month, the growth rates of Islamic banks in many Muslim countries have dropped from exponential between 2003 and 2005 to more normal in 2006.

Islamic assets in the banking sectors of countries like Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and Malaysia represent between 10% and 15% of total banking assets, with no significant increase in the percentage share in the first half of 2006. While Brunei was the only upward outlier with more than 40% of assets being Islamic, Lebanon joined Indonesia and Pakistan at the low end of the scale with no more than 2% of Islamic banking assets. According to the survey, Islamic finance is still growing in the Middle East but so is conventional banking, and the strongest growth rates are usually not on the side of Islamic banks.

For banks, specialization in Islamic real estate finance can be attractive in two ways, as facilitators of home or commercial property purchases by their customers, and as means for their own investments. While conventional banks are largely excluded from using real estate for profit-oriented own investments, the operating mandate of Islamic institutions has led regulators in several countries to allow these banks to include property in their investment portfolios.

Different jurisdictions, different regulations

However, the banks are facing different restrictions in different jurisdictions, as some regulators put limits on Islamic banks’ real estate investments and others don’t. In Europe, the practitioners also still face cost issues in home financing. These originate from tax laws that make no provisions for the special processes of Islamic finance, such as double transfer of deeds in a mudaraba structure. Only the UK has taken steps toward removing these cost barriers.

All this underpins the case made by the Islamic finance protagonists that the playing field for real estate finance by Islamic institutions should be made more level, beginning with continued standardization initiatives of central banks and regulators in Muslim countries.

Cost barriers and overly complex structures of Islamic products can be impediments for the growth of Islamic finance beyond sitting on a ledge as niche operators that address customers who will not enter the realm of conventional banking. While this target group is important, especially in developed countries, the ethics aspirations involved in the drive to expand Islamic finance extend into creating a humane economic realm, which will appeal to wide population groups—which as a larger aim underscores again the need for comprehensive standards.

And while the buzz of abundant liquidity by shariah-compliant investors and financial institutions in the Gulf certainly is no myth, the security and business convenience environment in the Levant has yet to infuse managers with more confidence. Take the example of Kuwait Finance House, a big player in channeling funds into real estate investments under observance of shariah, which has nearly $7.5 billion in property assets and funds.

KFH wants to expand in the Middle East, but for the time being, its property portfolio is invested in Europe, the Americas, and Asia. Said the manager of KFH’s international real estate department, Ali Al-Ghannam: “We have received many proposals for projects in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and North African countries, but so far we have no concrete projects.”

March 1, 2007 0 comments
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The so-called Iranian threat

by Lee Smith March 1, 2007
written by Lee Smith

According to a recent Zogby poll, George W. Bush jumped ahead of Ariel Sharon this year as the world leader Arabs like least. Perhaps Bush owes his remarkable surge to the fact that the former prime minister was in a coma for all but two weeks of 2006. This same poll that surveyed respondents on the popularity of an Israeli leader who for all practical purposes is dead, also reports that the majority of Middle Easterners do not fear Iran. It is the answer to what seems a very fuzzy question, indeed a much politicized one designed to challenge what has recently become the White House’s regional flow-chart: The Sunni Arab states are lined up with the US and Israel, against Tehran and its regional allies, Syria and Hizbullah.

You can’t entirely blame the Zogby pollsters for wanting all the traditional enmities to still hold water: Arabs hate Israel and Bush most of all, and they like—er, ok, they don’t fear Iran! What seems like a fundamental re-alignment of interests has come as a surprise to almost everyone, here in Washington and elsewhere. Sunni powers like Egypt and Jordan have been quite clear about their concerns over the Iranian threat, while the Saudi royal family has put up a noble front, perhaps because they have the most to lose if Iran becomes the regional hegemon. But the issue’s even more interesting within the Palestinian Authority.

Now that the Mecca Agreement has, temporarily at least, ended the discord between Hamas and Fatah, maybe the Palestinian Prime Minister can relax about his fashion choices. Ever since a Fatah crowd started chanting “Shia, Shia” against their Tehran-funded rivals, it seems Ismail Haniyeh will not be photographed without a red and white kafiyeh on his head. Maybe the color-scheme is to distinguish himself from the late Chairman Arafat—or perhaps he just wants to wrap himself in Arab garb to avoid seeming too Persian. So, then perhaps the more useful question is not whether Arabs fear Iran, but if some Arabs are very worried about seeming too Iranian.

The Iranians of course are also anxious, which is why unlike their clueless ally in Damascus, they seem to want very much to avoid a sectarian civil war in Lebanon. Another Sunni-Shia conflict in the Middle East is probably not to the Islamic Republic’s advantage, especially since the US military’s “surge” in Iraq seems so far mostly to involve rolling up Iranian assets in Baghdad. And if Bashar al-Assad keeps trying to bring down the Seniora government for the sake of sidelining an investigation into the murder of a popular Sunni zai’m and empowering a Shia militia, then Tehran will lose much of the region-wide credit it earned this past summer, outside Lebanon at any rate, as benefactor and grand sorcerer of the Islamo-nationalist resistance against Israel. The fact is that the Iranians may have already reached the limits of their ability to project power in a region that is majority Sunni Arab.

Perhaps that’s why here in Washington we are watching an extraordinary publicity campaign on behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran unfold, waged by a host of journalists and policy specialists in articles like “Courting the Saudis, and Catastrophe,” and “Why America Must Throw in its Lot with the Shia.” In short, the argument is that the US cannot abandon the Shia revival at this stage and return to the policies that allowed Sunni fanaticism to blossom and eventually bear fruit on September 11. The problem however is that the White House interprets regional transformation very differently than the Shia do: Washington means making room for democracy, or power-sharing, while the Iranians and Arab Shia from Iraq to Lebanon have largely taken it as a cue that after 1,400 years, they get to ride the pony now. Sure, the Shia reaction is a very understandable human response to more than a millennium of repressive violence, but the Americans are not going to run roughshod over all their strategic interests just so that the Shia can get their pound of flesh out of the Sunnis.

Elsewhere recently, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman argues that Iranian civilization and the country’s well-educated and progressive populace make Iran a much more likely US ally than Riyadh. In an ideal world, Washington policymakers would very much like to have a relationship with Iran. Among other things, it would give the US some much-needed leverage over the Saudis to finally stop funding, inciting and staffing, if unwittingly, terror against Americans and American interests. Alas, it is not an ideal world, and the Iranian regime is a much bigger problem as it is openly fighting the US, its allies and interests across the Middle East, from Iraq to Lebanon.

Vali Nasr is one of the hot names in US policy circles these days, which is why just last month he was invited to testify before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. There, he explained that, “a policy that is focused on Iran rather than Iraq will escalate conflict in Iraq and across the Middle East, thereby deepening American involvement in the region with the potential for adversely impacting US interests.” In other words, let Iran go about its business of adversely impacting US interests.

In fact, it wasn’t until very recently that Washington recognized the significance of Iran’s campaign, an oversight that explains why the Americans were essentially conducting two Middle East policies—one to deal with Lebanon, Syria, the Gulf, etc. that saw Iran as the major strategic threat; and another for Iraq that ignored, as Nasr counseled, the extent of Iranian penetration there.

With Moqtada al-Sadr hiding himself away like another famous underground mullah, those days are gone. And now who knows what new alliances are yet in store—a Damascus isolated by Saudi Arabia and its anxious Iranian ally?

LEE SMITH is a Hudson Institute visiting fellow and reporter on Middle East affairs.

March 1, 2007 0 comments
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Yes, Iraq was all about the oil

by Peter Speetjens March 1, 2007
written by Peter Speetjens

We were told that the war in Iraq was waged for many reasons: Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, supported terrorism and nourished links with al Qaeda. Demonstrators holding up banners reading “No Blood for Oil” were dismissed as ignorant and naive.

All wars start way before the first bullet is fired, and the Iraqi war was no exception. A possible starting date might be January 26, 1998, when 18 members of the Project for a New American Century (PNAC), wrote to then-US President Bill Clinton, urging him to use military action to overthrow Saddam. If not, they warned, he would be jeopardizing a sizeable chunk of the world’s oil supply. PNAC’s clout was significant. Ten of its 28 founding members—including such neocon luminaries as Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and Zalmay Khalizad—would go on to serve in the Bush administration

Clinton did not act. He of course did not have the oil background of his successor, George Bush, who within two weeks of his inauguration in January 2001 appointed Cheney head of the Energy Task Force. The former Halliburton CEO went on to hold regular meetings with oil industry representatives and lobbyists and later declared that, “by any estimation, Middle East oil producers will remain central to world security. The Gulf will be a primary focus of US international energy policy.”

The activities of “Team Cheney” were not isolated. As Jane Mayer revealed in The New Yorker, a secret National Security Council memo directed its staff “to cooperate fully” with Cheney’s task force and, specifically, to join “the review of operational policies towards rogue states such as Iraq and actions regarding the capture of new and existing oil and gas fields.”

The US State Department too joined the party, launching the Future of Iraq Project (FIP) 18 months before the war began, a period during which the US administration denied it had any specific war plans for Iraq. Within the FIP, however, experts from Iraq and the US produced 2,000 pages on how to deal with post-war Iraq, stating that the country should be, “opened to international oil companies as quickly as possible after the war.”

Which it was—almost overnight, the US-lead Coalition Provisional Authority turned Iraq into one of the most privatized nations on earth. State-owned enterprises were put up for sale, corporate taxes slashed and foreign firms could enter the market and repatriate profits tax-free. According to the Center for Public Integrity, 15 American companies were awarded contracts worth $50 billion—but not to oil companies.

That might have made things too obvious. It would also have been a violation of the Iraqi constitution. So a new law was needed, a work in progress ever since. To the immense frustration of the Americans, the main Iraqi power brokers have so far been unable to agree on a framework. The Kurds want regional authorities to have the main say, the Sunnis want a strong national authority, and Shi’ites want something in between.

All parties, including the Americans, agree on one thing: the Iraqi oil sector will be open to foreign investors. Fair enough. The shattered Iraqi oil industry is in dire need of a cash injection, some $25 billion over the next five years. The trouble is that any new oil law appears to be heading towards Production Sharing Agreements or PSAs.

In exchange for investments in exploration and production, a PSA allows oil companies to keep revenues until its initial investments are covered. Fair enough … or is it? British oil watchdog Platform has warned how PSAs allow for extremely high profit margins, up to 13 times a company’s minimum target.

Currently just 12% of the world’s oil is governed by PSAs, as they are only used in countries with small or difficult to reach oilfields, or in case of high-risk exploration. In Iraq, however, most fields have been very well documented, oil lies close to the surface and is cheap to extract.

When current Iraqi Vice-President Adel Mahdi first announced the liberalization of the Iraqi oil sector in Washington in 2004, he proclaimed it “very promising to American investors and American enterprise, certainly to oil companies.”

And yet, just days before the first tanks rolled over the Iraqi border, British Prime Minister Tony Blair assured a baying British public that, “Iraqi oil revenues, which people falsely claim we want to seize, should be put in a trust fund for the Iraqi people.” Who was being ignorant and naive?
 

PETER SPEETJENS is a Dutch writer and freelance consultant

March 1, 2007 0 comments
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Saudis moving to block Iranians

by Gareth Smith March 1, 2007
written by Gareth Smith

While many analysts have in recent weeks trumpeted the role of Iran as an emerging regional power, the more astute have pointed to the remarkable role of Saudi Arabia in shaping the regional agenda across both the Persian Gulf and the Levant.

The two key developments were February’s Saudi-brokered Mecca agreement between Hamas and Fatah, and Saudi Arabia’s series of meetings with Iran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, over both Lebanon and Tehran’s nuclear program. But there was also huge significance in February’s visit to Saudi by Vladimir Putin, the first by a Russian leader to any country of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Riyadh’s relationship with Tehran remains delicate. The persisting political vacuum in Iraq, where the Shia-led government is struggling to establish any effective authority, inevitably sucks in neighbors, with the Persian Gulf’s two leading powers having opposing visions of Iraq’s future.

“Iran would like a strong Shia state whereas the Saudis want a Sunni state,” says one insider in Tehran. “But it’s all been complicated by the naive vision of the US, Iraq’s third important player, which sought a quiet, ‘democratic’ Iraq with US military bases for at least 20 years. I don’t see the Americans being successful in reconciling these three visions, whether or not they send more troops.”

Riyadh-Tehran jousting

While both Tehran and the Saudis—officially or unofficially—pour resources into intelligence operations in Iraq, both governments are concerned at the dangers of sectarian conflict between Shia and Sunni, which can embolden extremists in Iraq and elsewhere. Pragmatists in both Saudi Arabia and Iran would like to get back to the growing realism of their relationship under former Iranian presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami.

“Even if Iran has more influence than the Saudis in Iraq, Saudi Arabia has more influence across the Islamic world, and this can genuinely harm Iran,” an official in Tehran says.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has warned publicly of differences among Muslims being fueled by “those who, for the happiness of US and Zionists, talk about an imagined … ‘Shia crescent’ and those who stir up insecurity and brother-killings in Iraq to make the Islamic and popular [Iraqi] government fail.”

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s “cautious welcome” of the new US Iraq policy reflected relief at the easing of earlier fears that Washington was contemplating a pull-out, even though the strategy had been agreed upon during Vice-President Dick Cheney’s visit to Riyadh in November.

Tehran is also concerned over Saudi influence in Lebanon, growing since the Syrian withdrawal and cemented by the donation of $1 billion to the central bank during the summer’s Israeli onslaught and the Gulf kingdom’s sponsorship of reconstruction in mainly Shi’a South Lebanon. Conservatives in Tehran also charge the Saudis with encouraging Hamas, the militant Palestinian group, to keep a distance from Tehran, and fostering anti-Shi’a sentiment among Sunni clerics in Pakistan.

The Saudis are wary both of Iran’s nuclear program and of the popularity of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the Arab and Islamic worlds, and are well aware of the wave of sympathy likely to be generated for Iran should it be attacked by the US or Israel.

An opinion poll released last month by Zogby International found that 61% of Arabs backed Iran’s nuclear program, even if it led to the acquisition of weapons. Nearly 80% identified the US and Israel as the main threats to regional security with only 6% naming Iran.

Hence the Saudis have opted for subtle economic pressure on Iran in the hope this will lead Tehran to compromise. Riyadh moved in January to keep oil prices at a relatively low level, vetoing a proposed emergency OPEC meeting when the price dipped below $50 a barrel. The move constrained Iran’s oil income, which generates around 60% of government revenue, at a time when US-encouraged banking sanctions are squeezing Tehran’s access to capital badly needed for oil and gas projects.

Blocking Iran

The Mecca accord, which went down badly in Washington, but has also done something to neutralize Tehran’s appeal as the “true” defender of Palestinian rights and remind the region that the 2002 “Arab peace plan,” agreed at the Beirut Arab League summit and still on the table, was essentially a Saudi proposal.

And hence the Saudis’ desire to agree a minimum framework with Tehran over Lebanon—including the acceptance of the UN enquiry into the murder of Rafik Hariri—and reduce the possibility that the persisting stand-off between the government of Fuad Seniora and the Hizbullah-led opposition could get out of hand.

The end-game of the Saudi strategy is probably both the halting of the Iranian nuclear program and the beginnings of strategic dialogue between Washington and Tehran. That neither will be easily accomplished should not detract from the real progress that has already been made.

GARETH SMYTH is the Financial Times Tehran correspondent.

March 1, 2007 0 comments
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Lebanon

American-Lebanese Partnership – Launches new portal

by Executive Staff March 1, 2007
written by Executive Staff

This month, the US-Lebanon Partnership Fund will launch its new e-portal, which aims to promote trade between the Unites States and Lebanon through business matching, enhancing the e-commerce capabilities of local firms and disseminating sector-specific information. The partnership—which was initiated by the White House and a group of American business leaders last September—announced its five ‘work streams’ supporting economic growth in Lebanon at the Paris III donor conference in January.

Although its goals are ambitious, the exceptional caliber of the partners involved adds credibility to the project. The partnership was founded by Craig Barrett, chairman of the Intel Corporation; John Chambers, chairman and CEO of Cisco Systems; Yousif Ghafari, chairman of GHAFARI, Inc.; and Dr. Ray Irani, chairman, president and CEO of Occidental Petroleum; Microsoft CEO Steve Ballner recently joined the partnership as well. According to the partnership website, the project is founded on the idea that, “a stable and secure Lebanon has the potential to become an anchor of stability in the Middle East. And Lebanon’s fundamental characteristics—a skilled workforce, entrepreneurial spirit and commitment to democracy—give us hope that, with support from American citizens and businesses, Lebanon can become this anchor.”

Furthermore, as Intel’s Barrett adds, “Lebanon will only be rebuilt through actions improving the educational and economic infrastructure.”

The five work streams include crisis relief and response, information communication technology (ICT) infrastructure, workforce training, private sector revival and connected government.

The first work stream, crisis relief, joins global efforts in the wake of last summer’s war with Israel. It primarily addresses the needs for housing, schooling, and adequate nutrition, working hand in hand with various NGOs such as Habitat for Humanity, UNICEF, Mercy Corps and American Near East Refugee Aid.

The second work stream promotes innovation, investment and development of ICT infrastructure by assisting the Lebanese Telecommunications Regulatory Authority. “The partnership hopes to contribute in developing the 21st century telecom sector, as studies show that countries with proper IT structures benefit the most from an economic standpoint,” explained an American embassy official. An international gateway and internet exchange point are also scheduled to launch in the month of March. The endeavor, supported by the American Chamber of Commerce, provides a networking and communication platform for American and Lebanese businesses. In addition, it may include the donation of equipment, training and consulting services. “The goal of the portal is to establish commercial dialogue, highlight opportunities in Lebanon and facilitate business partnerships in a result-driven manner. Technical assistance through online resources and seminars will also be offered,” says Aram Zamgochian, project director at the partnership. Phillip Farah, a partner at Cisco, underscores the increased visibility in the US markets offered by the portal to Lebanese companies, which will drive the demand side of the equation.

Tapping Lebanon’s human resources

The third work stream, workforce training, taps directly into the country’s rich human resource pool. 500 Lebanese interns will be placed in Lebanon and the United States over the next three years, with Cisco alone committing to host 100. “The internship aims to significantly improve skills and marketability of candidates and will be either held locally over an 11 month time period, or for 6 months in the States. Candidates will be encouraged to return to Lebanon at the end of the training,” explains Georges Akiki, Cisco’s program manager for the partnership. The company has also pledged to double the number of its networking academies in Lebanon, increasing from 21 to 43.

Private sector revival—certainly the boldest work stream—seeks to create jobs and push Lebanon into the gleaming waters of the 21st century global economy. “The secret of American productivity resides in the ease of doing business, which contributes to our high employment rates. This model needs to be urgently reproduced in Lebanon, where unemployment rates amount to 30 or 40 % in some regions,” reports the embassy official. Through the portal, global companies can reach out to Lebanese businesses by initiating joint ventures, capital injection, co-branding, R&D partnerships and licensing agreements. Six key industries have been identified as priority areas, including technology, tourism—with a focus on eco- and heritage tourism—banking and finance and agribusiness; developing essentially niche markets within sectors such as health care and manufacturing is also on the agenda, with 120 projects already under discussion. “We feel that the business-matching approach is more suitable than any other and can generate a self-perpetuating momentum. We realized that companies are more easily mobilized when they work on specific projects. They can also choose to directly invest in local funds, namely the Bader equity fund or the recent BEI and Byblos fund. Our goal is to set up an ongoing process that can deliver significant value over the years,” says Farah.

According to Mohamad Chattah, an advisor to Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora, the last work stream—dubbed “connected government”—is still in its nascent stage. “The partnership will enable intra and extra online communications with the government, facilitate access to public e-services as well as the creation of a connected community,” adds Akiki.

Finally, the partnership will be teaming up with Overseas Private Investment Corporation and the Near East Consulting Group, as well as key Lebanese organizations such as Kafalat, IDAL and the AmCham. “Through the efforts of this partnership, we can make a meaningful contribution to help position the country for leadership in the future,” emphasizes Chambers. “The time to act is now.”

For further information, visit the partnership website: www.lebanonpartnership.org
 

March 1, 2007 0 comments
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Comment

Foreigners in their own country

by Rana Hanna March 1, 2007
written by Rana Hanna

This February, the US Democratic Senator from Illinois Barack Obama announced that he was running for the American presidency in 2008. Other than being erudite and bright, the 45-year-old Mr. Obama has attracted the media’s attention because of his very un-WASPish background and the fact that he is genuinely African-American: as his “unpronounceable name” (his words) might suggest, Mr. Obama is half- Kenyan; It is his mother who is the American.

So here we have an African applying for the top job in the world. All very well you might say—it’s all in keeping with the wonderful opportunities afforded by the US to immigrants. However, Lebanese mothers whose children were sired by foreign fathers might not instantly applaud Mr. Obama’s ambitions; in fact they would probably be green with envy. Their children cannot even be Lebanese, let alone run for political office. Furthermore, their kids cannot apply for a passport or benefit from state services, such as free health care and education.

Against human rights and the Lebanese Constitution

This is a blatant breach of human rights and a breach of the Lebanese Constitution, according to which men and women are equal before the law. Unfortunately, this is the same law that declares a Lebanese citizen to be “a child born to a Lebanese man.”

There is no official explanation given as to why only Lebanese men can sire Lebanese citizens. Unofficial reasons include the fear of destabilizing the already delicate sectarian balance due to the many Palestinians who have been residing in Lebanon since 1948. But according to the Collective for Research and Training on Development-Action (CRTD-A), a Beirut-based NGO that contributes to the social development of local communities across the Arab world, less than 1% of registered marriages in Lebanon are to Palestinian men, a statistic that renders that argument null and void. As for the supposedly hair-trigger Lebanese sectarian system, well, that broke down decades ago and has been in constant shift ever since. In other words, there is no “delicate balance” to uphold.

The fact is that all the arguments given are merely excuses. The real issue is that women in this country are not really considered citizens. In fact, Lebanon does not even fully comply with the 1979 United Nations Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination against Women.

That we are not alone in this quagmire offers little comfort. Most countries in the Arab world do not grant women the right to pass on their nationality to their spouse or children. However, there have been changes. Last February, Morocco granted women the right to pass their nationality on to their children. Algeria did the same last year and Egypt two years ago. For a country that brands itself as the Switzerland of the Middle East, we are far behind.

It is difficult to pinpoint the social and economic effects of such discrimination against women. Why should the children of foreign women married to Lebanese men, who probably do not even live in the country, be considered more Lebanese than children reared in Lebanon, who speak Arabic and attend Lebanese schools and are, in natural fact, Lebanese in all but name?

Many obstacles to children, society

And get this: While American sociologists and economists ponder the effects of the increasing number of women leaving the workforce, Lebanese women have to worry about their children not being able to enter it. Some progress, albeit very little, has been made (new administrative procedures allow women to give their children the right of abode in Lebanon, although this right also exists for former diplomats to Lebanon who wish to remain in the country). But these children will still have to apply, and pay for, a work permit, putting them at a major disadvantage to their Lebanese peers as employers often think twice about hiring foreigners.

Interestingly enough, if a child is born in Lebanon and declared illegitimate and no foreign link is established, then the Lebanese nationality is theirs. So mothers, don’t take it personally, it’s the father’s fault.

Isn’t it always?

RANA HANNA is the Lebanese mother of three Cypriot children

March 1, 2007 0 comments
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