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GCC

Bahrain on the rise

by Executive Contributor November 3, 2006
written by Executive Contributor

Island economy booming

In the build up to November 25 parliamentary elections, Bahrainis’ attention has been focused on the state of the kingdom’s economy—and wrenching social changes to the kingdom’s gender balance in government.
In the social arena, Bahrain will have its first female deputy after the election. This is known before a single ballot has been cast, given that Lateefa al-Geood is unchallenged in her bid for a seat in parliament. Reformists have broadly welcomed her accomplishment, but some women’s activists have expressed some discomfort given the way in which she will win her seat.
On the economic front, the recently-published World Investment Report 2006 indicated that last year, Bahrain had the fourth-highest outflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) of any country in the West Asian region.
With over $1 billion in outflow for the kingdom, only the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia recorded higher outward FDI. This placed the kingdom within the overall pattern of FDI behavior in the Middle East and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) areas. Receipts from hydrocarbons are increasingly being used by Gulf economies to invest in projects that aim to diversify the economy. The result is not only internal investment, but also regional and beyond, with Asia and Africa benefiting from much of the Gulf’s FDI.
In all, GCC outflows more than doubled in 2004-2005.

Money flows out, flows in
At the same time, the GCC’s booming economies have continued to be major recipients of FDI. The same report showed that of the Gulf States, the UAE and Saudi Arabia attracted the highest volume of inward investment, followed by Turkey. The UAE pulled some $12 billion in 2005, while the Saudis received some $4.6 billion. Somewhat surprisingly, the Turks blew away a history of poor past performance in FDI by attracting some $9.7 billion. These three economies attracted more than 75% of the West Asian area’s total FDI inflow. The figure on inflows for West Asia rose 85% year-on-year.
The other interesting factor that became visible in 2005 was the importance of FDI to gross fixed capital formation in the Gulf. In the West Asian region overall, 15% of this formation was due to FDI, making the region a bigger draw for foreign investment than both Asia and Oceania for the first time ever.
Much of this inflow was in service-sector industries, such as finance and telecoms. Yet it has also been good news for local projects hoping to arouse foreign interest in other areas.
As an example, one of Bahrain’s largest real estate projects, the Bahrain Investment Wharf (BIW), recently announced that it had signed a dredging and land reclamation supervision contract with Dar Al-Handasah Consultants-Shair and Partners. This came after BIW had assigned the task of carrying out the dredging work to Great Lakes Dredge and Dock Company.

Unique privately-owned project
When completed, BIW will be a mixed-use estate, featuring industrial, business, logistics, warehousing, commercial and residential property. Built on around 1.7 million m2, it will be the only privately owned, operated and managed project of its kind in the country. The project is currently a public private partnership (PPP) between the Bahraini Ministry of Trade and Tameer.
The project runs through several phases, with the award of the Great Lakes contract signalling the completion of a major stage in the plan.
The reclamation work on 55% of the remaining land of the Bahrain Investment Wharf will be completed in about 11 months, BIW chairman Ahmed al-Qattan told reporters on October 14.
A number of different complexes will be developed on the new land, with the industrial park expected to house light, medium and convertible industries. The services complex will see transport, cargo and storage investors as well as other support companies. A logistic base and residential and commercial quarters will also be provided to help lure international firms operating in transport and warehousing.

November 3, 2006 0 comments
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GCC

Power talks

by Executive Contributor November 3, 2006
written by Executive Contributor

Qatari-Indian ties to deepen

In its push to diversify its economy and expand investment and business activities abroad, Qatar is reaching out to India – and India is reaching back.
Within the past month there has been much activity in Qatari-Indian business relations, some in the more traditional field of energy but also in finance and other non-oil related sectors. Qatar has long had close ties with the Indian economy, being the country’s largest single supplier of gas, a position that is set to expand. India, too, is home to many of the migrant workers employed in Qatar, whose remittances are a major source of cash for the Indian economy.
With the growth of India’s economy into a global powerhouse, and Qatar’s drive to spread its economic wings, the relationship is set to deepen. Bilateral trade between India and Qatar has an estimated value of just $1 billion, the majority represented by the export of $690 million worth of Qatari liquid natural gas (LNG).
In mid-October, the Qatar National Bank announced it was seeking to break into the Indian market: “Entry is difficult but we are looking at different options for entry into India,” said Ali Shareef al-Emadi, the bank’s acting chief executive in October, adding that the move was part of a wider expansion plan for the bank.

Looking for options
In early October, another door opened for Qatari investment in India, with the country’s National Thermal Power Corporation offering the Qatar Investment Authority a 40% stake in its gas-fired power project in the state of Kerala. NTPC is planning a major expansion of its plant there, lifting capacity from 350MW to 1,950MW, and it is looking for partners; Qatar, as India’s leading gas supplier, is a natural choice.
The proposal came only a week after a call for Qatar to buy a stake in Indian gas company Petronet. Following a meeting with Qatar’s finance minister, Yusuf Hussain Kamal, Petronet’s managing director said that he had proposed Qatar buy a stake of up to 12.5% in the company through a soon-to-be-floated $100 million foreign currency convertible bond issue. A delegation of officials from the Qatar Investment Agency will visit India shortly to look into the proposal.

Long-term agreement
India has also announced that it is seeking a further long-term agreement with Qatar to provide an additional 10 million tons of LNG annually, starting from 2010, yet another fillip to Qatar’s strongly performing energy export trade.
In mid-September, on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Summit in Havana, Qatar’s Crown Prince Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani met with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, with the focus of talks being further direct Qatari involvement in the Indian economy.
Though the full details of the discussions were not made public, a statement following the meeting said that Qatar was considering investments in India’s infrastructure and energy sectors. Likewise, India is considering opportunities in Qatar’s construction, transport, communication, oil-related service industries, IT, education and banking sectors.
However, there is a sticking point with Qatar’s desire to become more deeply involved in India’s economy, said al-Emad: India has only just begun opening up its market to overseas banks and financial institutions.
An example of this is Doha Bank’s application to operate in India, which has been held up at the Reserve Bank of India since last year. It is important for India to further liberalize policies to promote trade to the maximum, said Doha Bank Deputy Chief Executive Officer R. Seetharaman.
India must look at the bigger picture, he said. Since funds are required for infrastructure development, financial institutions and banks must be allowed to come in to speed up the process.
In many ways, Qatar and India are natural business partners. Both are looking to expand their economies, with the emirate having cash to invest and India actively seeking investment. Qatar already has a strong position in the Indian energy sector as a major supplier—a position that appears set to be consolidated as India’s demand for gas expands along with its economy. If India lowers a few more barriers in its financial sector, the distance between these two countries will narrow further.

November 3, 2006 0 comments
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Levant

Visiting Syria

by Executive Editors November 3, 2006
written by Executive Editors

Historical
investment

No doubt inspired by the growth of tourism in Lebanon, Syria has launched a concerted push to promote itself as a tourist destination by cashing in on its abundance of natural and historical sites to attract foreign visitors—and their currencies.
According to Syria’s tourism ministry, 3.4 million foreigners visited the country in 2005, a figure Damascus wants to see reach 7 million by the end of the decade. Investments in the tourism sector rose from $100 million in 2003 to $800 million by the end of last year, again a figure Damascus wants to see more than double in the coming years.
As an incentive to investors, the Syrian government has set out an attractive build-operate-transfer (BOT) scheme, with lease terms of up to 99 years. The government has waived a number of taxes formerly applied to investments in the tourism industry, including stamp duty on contracts. It has also cut the time and complexity needed for applications to make investments in the sector and identified 82 sites to be set aside for tourism development. Further incentives include tax holidays for investors for the first seven years of operation and tax cuts of up to 50% from the eighth year onwards.
The government has also given a commitment that it will boost infrastructure in areas listed as being of high tourism potential and upgrade the quality of services provided at sites of interest to visitors.

Facing challenges
However, Syria’s tourism industry does face a number of challenges. Compared to some of its neighbors, it does not have the number of high-end resorts and facilities needed to cater to the well-heeled visitors who are increasingly becoming the focus of the market. Damascus is attempting to redress this deficiency by actively seeking out foreign, and especially Arab, capital inflow to help the industry blossom.
In the past months, Syria has been wooing Arab investors, with more than a little success. Leading the charge has been Sadallah Agha al-Qala, the minister of tourism, who has been touting both the country’s tourism potential and the increasing ease and attractiveness of doing business in the country.
“The Syrian government has opened the way for scores of tourist sites that achieve economic and tourist feasibility in addition to issuing a large number of decisions and decrees which encourage the launching of new tourist projects,” the minister was quoted as saying to a delegation from Iran’s Amiran Group for Investment in late September.
Amiran’s chairman, Hasan Akhondi, said his group was looking into setting up a tourism resort complex on the Mediterranean coast near Lattakia that would include hotels, chalets and associated facilities. Though still in the negotiation stage, Akhondi said Damascus’ new measures to encourage investment in tourism were encouraging.

Regional interest
The Iranian interest in Syria, and especially around Lattakia, has been mirrored by other investors from the region, with Kuwaiti company al-Nour looking into launching a major development on the shores of the nearby November 16 Lake. In September, representatives of Qatari tourism developer al-Diyyar signed a memorandum of understanding with the Syrian government to invest $250 million in a new coastal project at Ibn Hani, which will include a five-star hotel, villas and chalets, a shopping complex and eateries, to be built on an area of 220,000 m2.
Naser al-Ansari, Al-Diyyar’s executive director, said that the Ibn Hani project would not be the last his firm would invest in, but rather the first of many.
These are only some of the new projects coming on line. According to Fareed Karima, Syria’s director of tourism projects, there has been a growing interest in the country’s tourism sector. In a press statement released in early September, Karima said 51 investors had made bids on 18 of the tourism sites identified by the government. The total value of these bids alone added up to $500 million.
The last three years have seen a constant 6% increase in foreign arrivals, with receipts growing apace. Having already taken steps to liberalize the sector and encourage investment, Syria is looking to build on its newly laid solid foundations.

November 3, 2006 0 comments
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Comment

Real men negotiate with Tehran

by Executive Staff November 1, 2006
written by Executive Staff

North Korea’s nuclear test should remind the world that what counts in politics is results rather than rhetoric. Especially since the “Axis of Evil” speech of January 2002, the Bush administration has pursued ideology-based policies that have failed in the real world.

The US has not achieved a basic level of success with any one of the members of the Axis: North Korea, Iraq and Iran. But Iran is the odd one out of the three, with a functioning state, an international strategy based on national interest, and a relative degree of internal pluralism.

And yet the opportunity for the United States and the European Union to reach an agreement with Iran over its nuclear program seems to be slipping away. Iran, unlike North Korea, is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which means its atomic facilities are monitored by UN inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency. It also suspended enrichment for three years and allowed for more intrusive IAEA inspections under the treaty’s Additional Protocol.

But Iran’s talks with the EU, started in 2003, have foundered over a basic disagreement. The EU wants Iran to suspend enrichment indefinitely, so as to forestall Iran’s gaining technology for a bomb. Tehran, meanwhile, sees access to enrichment as a “right” guaranteed under the NPT.

The talks that sputtered to a halt in October between Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief, and Ali Larijani, Iran’s top security official, should not be the last chance to reach an agreement. Other ways of restricting Iran’s nuclear program—sanctions or US/Israeli military strikes—would be ineffective at best and highly dangerous at worst.

It seems clear both from what has leaked out from the Solana-Larijani talks and from Iran’s written response to the P5+1 (the permanent members of the UN security council plus Germany) that Tehran offered a compromise: Iran could continue to enrich during negotiations, but afterwards would limit domestic enrichment to the laboratory plant at Natanz. Other enrichment would be carried out in Russia while Natanz would remain under IAEA inspection.

Since the talks broke down, both sides have been digging in. The US and the EU continue to argue Iran should suspend all enrichment. Tehran defends its rights, and we must assume will go ahead with expanding the program beyond laboratory-level enrichment towards industrial-scale.

The outlines of a deal recognizing Iran’s laboratory-level enrichment have been evident for some time, and are acknowledged by many in Europe. But time is something now in short supply, and US and British insistence that Iran suspend all enrichment is becoming self-defeating.

Neither is this a static situation. Opponents of a deal in Tehran, while a minority in the collective leadership, are becoming more vocal and we assume more influential. President Ahmadinejad has used the issue, coupled with vehement criticisms of Israel, to project himself as a leadership figure throughout the Muslim and Arab worlds.

America looks less and less like it is in a position to dictate terms to Iran. Russia and China do not favor sanctions. Iraq is not stable, and there has been a telling growth in Afghanistan of suicide bombings against western targets. In Lebanon, Hizbullah held up the Israelis with a few hundred fighters. No wonder the Iranians think Americans can’t manage all these conflicts and attack them.

But politicians driven by ideology often fail to see realities staring them in the face, and this is what makes the stand-off with Iran so dangerous.

The insistence on ending all enrichment on Iranian soil has not produced the desired result. Hence it is time for unconditional talks aimed at reaching an agreement with Iran that accepts its right to nuclear technology, including a limited enrichment program, while also insisting it comes back into the Additional Protocol and extends its co-operation with the IAEA.

Of course Tehran would claim that as a “victory,” but in this imperfect and volatile world that is a small price to pay for a vital and practical step towards stability.

November 1, 2006 0 comments
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Society

The show must go on

by Executive Staff November 1, 2006
written by Executive Staff

Beirut Gate, the $600 million Abu Dhabi-financed real estate development in Solidere, is going ahead as planned. How quickly and successfully it does so will be a confidence test for the local market.

Covering a total footprint of 21,448 m2 and a built-up area of 178,500 m2, the project consists of eight separate plots, on which eight separate but thematically-linked buildings are to be constructed. Residential space will anchor the development, accounting for 120,000 m2, whilst 25,000 m2 is set aside for ground-floor retail units and the rest is offices.

In terms of location, it will occupy most of the remaining empty land in the north-east of Solidere, including the open area near the Tabaris overpass, and, most controversially, the sites currently home to the ‘dome’ cinema and the nearby ruined church.

Six of the planned buildings will be designed by two architects: Christian de Portzamparc, the man behind Paris’s Cité de la Musique and New York’s LVMH building; and Arquitectronica, a US-based firm. The other two will be designed by Nabil Gholam, a Lebanese architect who has produced other downtown developments; and the Erga Group, another Beirut-based firm.

Emotional turmoil

Predictably, given its size and location, Beirut Gate looks set to stir emotions. Rumors have already circulated about the possible demolition of one of Beirut’s 1960s icons, the dome-shaped cinema, and its alleged replacement with mixed-use space. However, Abu Dhabi Investment House (ADIH), the UAE-based fund which bought the eight plots from Solidere back in March, denies that the cinema will be turned into a tower block.

“It’s a sensitive issue,” says Nicholas Fraser, Executive Director of Real Estate at ADIH. “And although we have no preservation orders, we have decided to build a new cultural center on the site. This will be given to the city, and could be used for modern art galleries or installations. As for the church, it will either be rebuilt or restored.”

In business terms, Beirut Gate might be emitting positive signals at a critical time—and Fraser hopes the Beirut municipality will accelerate the permit process to encourage other investors—but is demand sufficient to make it a financial success?

ADIH say they have already sold one 38,984 m2 plot to a developer at a price of $2,200/m2, with a second sale currently under negotiation. Fraser hopes that all eight will be sold by spring or summer of next year, probably to a combination of Lebanese and GCC-based investors. If they all buy at that price, then ADIH itself will generate a handsome return—and it claims that investors or developers can expect returns of 18%.

A litmus test?

“I’d estimate that ADIH bought the land from Solidere at around $1,200/m2, which would produce a substantial margin if they sell all the plots at $2,200/m2,” says RAMCO’s Raja Makarem. “A secondary developer who then buys the land from ADIH would need to charge about $5,000/m2 to individual tenants to be able to make a decent profit.”

At pre-war levels, $5,000/m2 is certainly within the top bracket of downtown property, though not at the very pinnacle of pricing. But whilst residential space is still a fairly solid bet, and any developer purchasing a Beirut Gate plot should have a specific clientele in mind, office space in central Beirut is already subject to quite high vacancy rates, a situation which is likely to persist.

Other more immediate concerns include that of construction access for such a large site, especially in a city that already suffers from debilitating traffic. Fraser, though, predicts that the building process will be staggered.

Beirut Gate could prove to be a litmus test for confidence in the post-war Lebanese real estate market. With the other huge downtown project—the 100,000 m2 Kuwaiti-financed Phoenicia Village—temporarily on hold, the success of this development will be an important gauge for the local market as a whole.

November 1, 2006 0 comments
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Finance

Banking reforms- Syria loosens up ?

by Executive Staff November 1, 2006
written by Executive Staff

When attendees crowd the new Four Seasons Hotel in downtown Damascus for the opening of the Syrian Banking Conference on November 3-5, talk will undoubtedly turn to the complications that private banking still faces two years after the first such institutions opened for business.

Indeed, although five private banks now operate—and three more are on the way by year’s end—there is a palpable sense among Lebanese bankers, who have led the sector’s expansion in Syria, that additional measures must be passed, and soon, if long-term stability and growth is to be achieved.

As a recent Audi research report said, “serious hurdles are facing banking activity, [which calls] for the implementation of further reforms.”

One criticism is that the sector still suffers from a dangerous lack of transparency in regulation, oversight and operation. Underscoring the point, the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) report on Syria asserts that the recent rapid expansion of private credit is likely to have weakened the quality of bank’s lending portfolios because there is little in the way of risk management practices—not to mention a credit bureau that might accurately assess a customer’s suitability for debt. At the same time, according to one Beirut-based banker intimately involved in his company’s expansion across the border, “The Syrian central bank…is lacking independence and is not playing its role like any other central bank in the world.”

Such criticism is avoided in public because the central bank, under its new governor Adib Mayyali, is seen as a strong force pushing for further reform, but the comment illustrates the dominant view that politics is still intervening in the sector, preventing much-needed exchange rate reforms, the restructuring of state-owned banks and, as a consequence of both, much sought-after interest rate liberalization.

Syrian Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdullah Dardari, freely admits as much, but insists that “there is an intensive liberalization program for the financial sector in Syria—including the reforming of the central bank, making it more independent and more liberalization in terms of the monetary policy where there will be more room for the market.”

To underscore his seriousness, he points to a recently initiated program of cooperation with the IMF, the European Union and the Arab Monetary Fund to address the core issues, but acknowledges that the effort will take up to two years to complete. And even then the question becomes to what extent the government will actually act on the recommendations by passing the relevant laws.

Although some bankers, like Jean Bassil, assistant GM at Byblos Bank Syria, are hopeful that Dardari’s timeframe will indeed come to fruition, with “the remaining restrictions and the complicated regulations disappearing,” two years may prove to be a long time to wait, especially for some of the smaller changes which bankers are increasingly clamoring for.

Indeed, at the top of that list, according to several sector leaders, are the private ownership cap of 49%; an improvement in clearing and settlement procedures; the lack of placement vehicles like T-bills which might tease more money out of Syria’s cash economy (CDs have only recently been allowed); and the convertibility of the currency which, according to one banker, “is still impossible.”

"The major enhancements we would like to see,” explained Bank Audi Syria’s Bassel Hamwi, in comments widely agreed upon, “are related to e-compensation, the automation of the central bank accounts, and the setup of a professional central risk unit.”

That matters have reached this point should come as no surprise: the Syrian economy operated as an integrated, state-run entity for decades, which means that as the “low-hanging fruit” of financial reform was picked in recent years, it has now become nearly impossible to introduce further reform without going to the heart of the issue.

And that means finally tackling the immensely difficult issue of financing state-run institutions, floating the currency and creating risk management practices that are not based, as one Lebanese banker put it, on “long coffee chats to determine bankable credits,” much less the political pedigree of a certain project.

Given all this, participants at November’s Syrian Banking Conference will indeed have much to discuss.

November 1, 2006 0 comments
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Capitalist Culture

Vote to blow bush off course? US’s Iraq plan sinking

by Michael Young November 1, 2006
written by Michael Young

Around the time this article will appear, the United States will be preparing for a congressional election that may have a decisive impact on capitalist culture in the Middle East—in other words, on the stated aim of the Bush administration to advance liberal democracy in Arab countries, so exchanges of ideas and money are free, and peoples freer.

To be sure, that project is already half a way down into the grave, and dirt is being shoveled over it. Only administration stalwarts still publicly defend the notion that Iraq is a democracy in the making. With American casualties dramatically on the rise, and supporters of the war increasingly doubtful about the conflict’s outcome, there is not only little conviction that advancing Iraqi democracy is even relevant anymore, but there is also a sincere worry among pro-Bush Republicans that Iraq may be the reason why they lose their majority in the House of Representatives.

Death by committee

Then there is the fact that the Bush administration has named a high-level commission, the Iraq Study Group, to shape a new approach to the conduct of the war. The head of the group is James Baker, the former secretary of state under President George H.W. Bush. The silky Baker, for all his expertise, was never someone much concerned with democracy and human rights. A political “realist,” but also someone close to Big Oil, his priority was usually to advance American national interests in the Middle East in collaboration with what the Washington Arabist establishment has called “our traditional allies.” That means primarily Saudi Arabia and Egypt, neither democratic paragons, along with other regimes having little concern for the tropes of capitalist culture.

The war in Iraq and also the rise of Iran have only strengthened these regimes in American and European eyes. With Tehran batting away international efforts to end its uranium enrichment and the West increasingly fearful that Iran is close to building a nuclear device, neither Washington nor the EU is keen to destabilize their Arab allies with calls for more representative and open political systems.

That would be understandable, if policy were about the here and now. But the reality is much more complex. The very reason why Iran appears so threatening to the Arab world—and the reason why Iraq seems to pose such a threat to its neighbors—is that the Arab states are not democratic. As they confront increasingly difficult challenges in the region, their regimes have the added burden of knowing they face a serious legitimacy problem at home. And where there is a problem of legitimacy, there is a problem of stability and predictability. Which Arab regime can be sure its people will defend the state if it is threatened?

The irony is that while the Arab regimes deny democratic legitimacy to their own people, the American democracy project in the Middle East, or what remains of it, might well be permanently terminated thanks to an American democratic happening. The outcome of the congressional elections remains unclear, but in late September and October what seemed like a commanding Republican advantage suddenly began to collapse. First, a National Intelligence Estimate suggested that the Iraq war, rather than damaging terrorism, had allowed it to proliferate in the country. Then, Bob Woodward’s new book, “State of Denial,” further brought home that the administration had lied about Iraq. And a scandal involving Rep. Mark Foley, a Florida Republican caught sending lewd messages to congressional pages, harmed Republican chances when it was revealed that the party’s leadership had tried to conceal his behavior.

Democracy threatens grand design

A Democratic victory in the House would probably not substantially alter the Bush’s Iraq policy in the short term. However, it would deeply change the framework of the debate. Facing a more hostile House, President Bush would have to make concessions on Iraq. This wouldn’t necessarily be bad, given that American policy today seems utterly ineffective, but it is also very unlikely that democracy would be a priority if the Democrats’ aim—and perhaps that of quite a few Republicans—is to pave the way for an exit from Iraq. One doesn’t build a capitalist culture while booking passage home.

So Bush’s grand democratic ambition for the region would sink without a trace, its death to be formally declared in two years’ time when the president leaves office. That would be a shame, and many would be right in saying that Bush was to a large extent to blame. But that doesn’t diminish the fact that if the US returns to a policy of condoning undemocratic regimes in the Middle East, American interests will be further threatened. Thugs often make for very unreliable allies.

Michael Young

November 1, 2006 0 comments
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“They hate us for our freedoms”? If only they knew

by Abigail Fielding-Smith November 1, 2006
written by Abigail Fielding-Smith

Immediately after September 11, 2001, while the ruins of the World Trade Center still smoldered, some of the more thoughtful members of the punditocracy and the population asked the obvious question of why: “Why did this happen? What had the US done that was so bad?”

For some—George W. Bush, for instance—the answer was clear. It wasn’t what the US had done, it was who we were.

“Americans are asking, why do they hate us?” he said in a joint address to Congress on Sept. 20, 2001. “They hate our freedoms—our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other.”

He used “freedom” 13 times in that one speech. It would, as it turns out, become a recurring theme for the president. In his second inaugural address, Bush used “freedom” 27 times, more than twice as many times as his joint address. That’s a lot of freedom. And that’s not even counting the “freedom fries” on the menu at the Congressional cafeteria.

But under this president and the bills he’s signed into law, Americans are losing their freedoms at an alarming rate—and with them, the United States’ power to inspire people to work for real freedom from tyranny.

One shouldn’t discount the power the idea of America has for oppressed people of the world. When Syria still had its boot on Lebanon’s throat, Americans in the country were often reminded of this power by cab drivers, shopkeepers and other strangers who spoke movingly of America’s support for freedom around the world and expressed hope that it would support freedom in Lebanon, too. And then, for a brief moment during the Cedar Revolution, Bush seemed to support the country.

Back home, however, it was a different story. On October 17, Bush signed into law the Military Commission Act of 2006, which supporters say provides a framework for trying terrorism suspects while “clarifying” the Geneva Conventions. Under the law, Bush’s new powers are the very definition of tyranny. Setting aside it’s thumbs-up to interrogation techniques such as water-boarding, sleep depravation and stress positions—techniques which “normal people consider torture,” as the New York Times put it—the act allows the president of the United States or the secretary of defense to declare a US citizen, even if they had never left the States, an “unlawful enemy combatant,” throw them into a military prison and never bring charges against them. Foreign nationals or legal residents cannot appeal their imprisonment or demand a trial, a right known as habeas corpus, while Americans’ rights to a habeas hearing are strictly limited. And this can happen anywhere in the world. If the president says you’re a bad guy, it’s pretty much game over for you. Oh, and you’ll probably be tortured.

Even today, there are possibly hundreds of Lebanese detainees languishing in Stygian darkness in Damascus. Men (and some women) who were taken in the night by the Syrian forces after its October 13, 1990, invasion have been tortured, have never had a trial nor been informed of the charges against them. Just like “dirty bomber” Jose Padilla somewhere in a US military brig!

The difference between Syria and the United States is that Washington is—and I stress this—legally doing this. So what freedoms exactly is the United States fighting for? What brave fight against “Islamo-Fascism” is the US waging when its own laws sound like they were written by Josef Stalin?

That Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and their ilk were and are butchers, mass murders and thugs is beyond dispute. That they’re enemies of true freedom and hurtful toward the peaceful people of the world is also indisputable. But America’s judicial system isn’t about who its enemies are; it’s about who America is.

Thomas Paine wrote in 1795, “An avidity to punish is always dangerous to liberty. … He that would make his own liberty secure must guard even his enemy from oppression; for if he violates this duty he establishes a precedent that will reach to himself.”

When America looks at her enemies, she now sees herself.

November 1, 2006 0 comments
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High-speed Internet access still in the slow lane in Lebanon

by Executive Staff November 1, 2006
written by Executive Staff

For the past several months, a triumphant press release has been sitting on internet provider IDM’s homepage, gathering dust and providing, at the same time, one indication of how the government has been unable to address even small problems that seem to offer such unambiguously large rewards.

“IDM,” the release reads, “Is pleased to announce that on January 3rd, 2006, it has signed with the Ministry of Post & Telecommunications (MPT) a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that will allow IDM to offer broadband Internet access over DSL (Digital Subscriber Line). The service will be commercially available once the relevant decrees will be finalized and issued from the Council of Ministers.”

Of course, in retrospect, the first indication that complications might arise should have been the discrepancy between the headline of the press release—“Agreement … allows IDM to offer broadband Internet access over DSL soon in Lebanon” —and the lead paragraph above.

For when one reads on, the indispensable notion of “soon”—critical to those Lebanese who have been hearing about DSL’s imminent arrival for nearly three years now—disappears, apparently unworthy of further elaboration. In fact, any suggestion that “the relevant decrees” themselves might be finalized “soon” essentially boils down to this: DSL will be available once the Council of Ministers decides to act.

Unfortunately, 11 months on, DSL appears no closer to a daily reality than it did before the MOU was signed earlier this year.

This is due to several factors, which are conspiring together to prevent the introduction of what is seen, the world over, as a key driver of economic, intellectual and social progress.

First and foremost, since long-distance calling revenue produces hundreds of millions of dollars each year for the general budget, the government is loathe to introduce broadly available and affordable high-speed internet—the rationale being that people will start to use Voice over Internet technology (VoIP), which is illegal in Lebanon, to place their calls for virtually nothing.

Second, there is a capacity problem: Lebanon’s international fiber links out of the country and onto the commercial internet simply cannot handle a huge increase in domestic users. Long-awaited plans to increase capacity have likewise been subject to delay after delay.

As a result of these issues, internet tariffs in Lebanon remain the highest in the region, with IDM selling a two-megabyte per second upload and download speed package for a whopping $6,000 per month!

Even IDM’s current package, which approximates DSL’s bare minimum 256-kilobyte download speed (upload speeds are capped at a VoIP-killing 32 kilobytes per second), comes in at $150 per month. And that is after sharing bandwidth with other customers in the area and a $300 installation fee.

Although the promised DSL service in Lebanon is meant to provide upload and download speeds in excess of 256 kbps, the expected price of $50 a month still is almost double the average rate globally.

The situation is particularly exasperating since Lebanon’s human capital—its highly-educated and creative workforce—is routinely cited by Lebanese and non-Lebanese analysts alike as arguably the country’s greatest asset, along with its comparatively liberal economic structures.

Modern business, however, is driven by connectivity: without affordable access, Lebanon is increasingly forced to export its precious human capital abroad to better-connected, if less intrinsically liberal, economies. Indeed, even for lower-skilled workers, the lack of a true internet economy means exclusion from emerging opportunities seized on by other countries in the region—call centers, for example, in Tunisia and Morocco that are now serving a wide array of European Union businesses.

The situation reached the point of embarrassment last month when in succession, 1) former pariah state Libya announced a $250 million program with an American non-profit to provide inexpensive laptop computers and satellite internet for all of the nation’s 1.2 million schoolchildren; 2) An international report assessed that internet penetration in Israel reached 71% in 2005, putting the Jewish state in fifth place worldwide; and 3) (just to cap the month off) Iran announced it was making DSL available, but that it would cap upload and download speeds at 128 kbps in an apparent attempt to block usage of politically-oriented streaming video and audio sites.

Thus, the sad fact is that Lebanon is not only being outpaced in the internet economy by both its southern foe and a war-torn, former backwater state with little in the way of human capital, but its own provision of internet services essentially approaches the Iranian model (albeit without the intention to censor).

“Nigeria, Senegal, Libya and Iran announced the DSL entry to their country,” observes Zakiye Karam, commercial manager at IDM. “Who knows, maybe Iraq would do it before Lebanon.”

The suggestion is not entirely implausible. After all, South and Southeast Asian countries have seen a cumulative 57% growth in DSL users over the past year. In the Middle East and Africa, the number of DSL users increased by nearly 1.75 million between July 2005 and July 2006.

Iraq, despite its chaos, has a burgeoning mobile communications sector ideally suited for implementing so-called “leap-frogging” technologies—like wireless Internet—thus avoiding the need to build actual lines on the streets. (Such technologies are also on the rise in Lebanon, with Cedarcom leading the way through its launch of mobile wireless broadband service this month. These high-speed, lower-cost alternatives may even end up trumping the stalled DSL drive — see page 79.)

In any case, Lebanon is seeing little in the way of movement towards a resolution of the DSL issue.

In fact, nine months ago, Minister of Telecommunications Marwan Hamade responded to one reporter’s query on the subject by saying, “The ministry has been paralyzed for years while the main items discussed were conflicts with the mobile companies … Now that we are out of this mess, we can address the issue of broadband.”

Unfortunately, as with the US in Iraq, Hamade’s prognosis that things may finally be clearing up seems, 11 months later, to be worth about as much as promises issued from the suffocating confines of the Green Zone.

It is also perhaps an indication that it will take a lot more than resolving one old issue at the ministry before Lebanon is finally able to move ahead into the Internet economy.

November 1, 2006 0 comments
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Society

Killing Mr. Lebanon – New book on target

by Michael Karam November 1, 2006
written by Michael Karam

On that sunny February day in 2005 when they killed Rafik Hariri, Basil Fuleihan and 21 others outside the St. Georges hotel, I was due to have lunch at Le Vendôme at 1pm. However, that morning the venue was changed. Had it not, and being the punctual sort, I would have arrived in Ain Mreisseh minutes before 1pm. Quite where I would have been as Hariri’s convoy hurtled past Marina Towers seconds before its fiery denouement, I am not sure. I could have missed the blast, been caught in it or been blown flat on my back as I handed my car keys to the parking valet. As it was, I never even heard the blast. It was warm day, the a/c was on and the radio was blaring. I had taken a bad route and was stuck in traffic outside the French embassy. Lunch was cancelled. I went home, poured a large whisky before turning on the TV and watched the news unfold. My mother called from London. “Yes,” I told her. “He is dead.” Reads like a Ludlum thriller

Nearly two years on, the crime, while momentarily overshadowed by the recent summer war, is still etched on our minds. It was a defining second in Lebanese history, one of those moments that we divide into life before and life after. For those who care about such things, the events that took place in the hours before and after the explosion are thrillingly and minutely recounted in Killing Mr. Lebanon: The Assassination of Rafik Hariri and Its Impact on the Middle East by Nicholas Blanford. The opening chapter reads like a Ludlum thriller, made all the more compulsive because Blanford has skillfully knitted together the events of that Valentine’s Day morning through the eyes of no more than 15 people in whose lives that day will forever resonate.

However, there is much more to KML that makes it one of the most important and entertaining books in a long time to examine the tectonic plates that grind under Lebanon’s political surface, charting as it does the raw power struggle between Lebanon and Syria that eventually led to the presidential extension, Hariri’s resignation and the passing of the fateful UN resolution 1559. As its title hints, the book also seeks to portray Hariri—“He was a corrupter rather than corrupt”—as the prodigal son who rode into town on the back of a billion-dollar fortune and set about realizing a dream to take Lebanon and transform it into what he saw as its rightful position as the Hong Kong of the region. In the interest of disclosure, Nicholas Blanford is a friend. He is also a dogged and thorough reporter for the Times, Christian Science Monitor, Time Magazine and occasionally, the pages of Executive. He has lived in Lebanon since 1994 and has reported from Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. He is also one of the most knowledgeable reporters in the world on Hizbullah. Tragic epilogue

KLM was written over eight months. It contains over 80 interviews conducted in three countries—Lebanon, France and Syria—lasting over 100 hours. Blanford traveled to Paris to interview Saad Hariri and Abdel Khalim Khaddam. He sat with an emotionally drained Jumblatt in Mokhtara, and quizzed Marwan Hamadeh and the late Gebran Tueni. In examining the role of Syria in Lebanon, he spoke to Fares Boueiz, who is by all accounts a great raconteur, and Qassem Qanso, whom Blanford found surprisingly likable. Even if it needs to be updated, the book will stand the test of time when others will loiter in the remainder bins. IB Tauris took a gamble by asking Blanford to write what is the defining book on the event and its impact. The investigation was, and still is, a work in progress, so at any time the book could have been overtaken by events. It is, however, bang up to date. It concludes with a powerful epilogue written on July 23, midway through this summer’s war between Israel and Hizbullah, in the form of a dispatch datelined Tyre. As Blanford notes, the war was a tragic finale to the Hariri story. “Hariri had always feared that Hizbullah’s hostility toward Israel would lead Lebanon into just this kind of slaughter and destruction. How he had bargained, negotiated and maneuvered to avoid such a catastrophe. Yet it had all come to nothing. His death and the subsequent chain of events—the polarization in Lebanon over Hizbullah’s arms, resurgent sectarianism, government weakness, Syrian meddling and international manipulation—had led to this unfolding disaster.”—MK

Killing Mr Lebanon: The Assassination of Rafik Hariri and Its Impact on the Middle East by Nicholas Blanford is published by IB Tauris, £17.99

 

November 1, 2006 0 comments
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