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Special Section

Vintage Stuff

by Anthony Mills September 9, 2005
written by Anthony Mills

There’s a 1958, silver-blue Mercedes 190SL convertible in town, and it’s turning heads. In a country where new, shiny and expensive can be a brash entrée into the smart set, what better way to offer an riposte with a dash of elegance and a bit of old money charm with a glorious vintage sports car, rippling with Connolly leather and spoked hubcaps..

There is a small and determined band ofLebanese who see a vintage car as a superior, more refined expression of motoring pleasure. There are currently around 300 vintage cars purring around Lebanon’s roads with an air of distressed gentility. But be warned; beauty and elegance come at a high price in a country where the market is still underdeveloped, services histories are opaque and the majority of mechanics simply are not up to the job of maintaining these beauties of a bygone age.

To many it is all about a time when cars where art. “Back in the old days, some guy graduated from design school, sat down at night with his pack of cigarettes and a coffee, imagined a car and drew it. It had soul and life. reminisced classic car aficionado Elias Amiouni. “Sure, today’s cars are beautiful. They handle great, but they have no soul.”

And soul is what drives Lebanon’s determined band of car lovers. In Europe and the US there are no shortage of magazines devoted to classic cars, bringing together devotees, offering maintenance hints, market movements and transparent prices. In Lebanon however, while interest in classic cars is picking up, it will always be limited.

And for those who seek a quick buck and want to setting up a classic car business in Lebanon, forget say the connoisseurs. “To import cars and then sit on them for years, without knowing if you’re going to have a buyer is just not worth it,” said Amiouni. “The number of enthusiasts is simply not big enough. Here in Lebanon you do this as a hobby. A friend of mine wants to sell a 1959 Corvette in reasonable condition but he can’t get a decent offer. This is a car that would sell in Europe or the States for around $65,000, but no one is interested”

Elsewhere, vendors are asking funny money for what are essentially pieces of junk “There’s a total misconception,” says Mercedes collector Malek Mroueh. “You go to see a car and the guy tells you it’s worth $100,000. True, refurbished it would be worth that much. But you’ve got to spend $75,000 refurbishing it. I recently bought a 280SL in the States for around $5,000,” he went on. “I knew it was a shambles, but I can restore it. Someone selling the same car here would have demanded $45,000.”

Most Arab collectors (Mercedes SL’s and Jaguars E-types are particularly coveted) source from dealers in Europe and the US, where the provenance of the vehicle is trusted and they are less likely to be conned by unscrupulous restorers.

“Why would you want to buy a classic car here when elsewhere you have a much bigger basket to choose from?” asked Amiouni. “Elsewhere, the car has probably been maintained to a much higher standard. And there is always a service history. So you know pretty much what the car has been through. If you buy it here, a lot of mechanical and bodywork surprises are going to pop up. Local restorers are out to make a quick buck. They cut corners.”

Like many of the newer cars that arrive on Lebanon’s shores and reassembled after being written off for scrap, the buyer can often never know exactly how his piece or motoring memorabilia has been restored. Mroueh, who owns four Mercedes, is so distrustful of Lebanese workmanship that his cars are now maintained in the same warehouse as he runs his printing business. That way, he can keep an eye on the restorers and avoid the frustrations associated leaving in hands of a stranger. “I once restored a 1971 Mercedes 280 SL,” he recalled. “I had to be there an hour a day just to make sure things got done. And it cost me a bundle. So I figured that if I bought the tools, set up some space in my printing plant and got them to work on it there, it would be cheaper and I would have more control.”

Another Mercedes collector Marwan Tarraf has a similar tale. “I took a couple of cars to a restorer and he lost most of the parts. The guy was so messy. He was throwing things around. A year later, I went to take the car and had to buy the parts he had lost. It came to more than $12,000.”

There is essentially a dilemma. Anyone seeking to enter the car restoration market in Europe or the States, though, must be prepared to pay through the nose. In Lebanon, a restorer might take $300 a week. In the United States he costs $75 an hour. Amiouni said restoring his Lamborghini Mura in England cost around $60,000. Had it needed spare parts the price would have spiraled further. Another classic car restorer said it cost him $60,000 to restore an Aston Martin DB6 in England. He had already spent $60,000 purchasing the vehicle. He said the restoration process would have cost only $20,000 in Lebanon, but at what price? As the saying goes there is nothing more expensive that something cheap.

And then there is the problem of outmoded technology. Tarraf, who has spent over a half a million dollars on fourteen Mercedes, 13 of which he bought in the US for prices varying from $15,000, to $85,000 for a 1971 280SE convertible, does not advise taking vintage cars to the local dealer. “I tried to have some work done on one of my cars at the Mercedes dealership,” he said. “It stood there for six months and then I had to bring it back on a truck. They didn’t know what to do with it.”

Even a simple service can be problematic. Most car buffs have found and treasure mechanics who know their stuff. “There are a few older mechanics around who have been working on these cars since they were new,” said Amiouni. “As for the rest, I wouldn’t allow them near my car.”

But what about bringing old cars into the country? Insiders complain that even modest market growth is being hampered by the same exorbitant duties stifling the new car sector. Importers have to pay 20% customs duty on the first $13,300 of the car’s CIF value and 50% on the remaining value, plus 10% VAT and 8% registration fees. And for classic car importers, there’s an added twist: While the base value of a brand new car is indisputable, the value of an vintage model has to be determined by a customs official before any duties are imposed. This evaluation process, classic car devotees complain, is carried out in a frustratingly unprofessional manner. Most significantly, a single assessor insists on valuing the vehicle at the high end of the range on his chart. He pays attention only to the brand, not to the condition, and is often under pressure from his superiors to extract as much duty as possible, collectors say.

“Imagine you’re importing a Lamborghini Mura in a state of total disrepair,” said Amiouni. “You might be planning on spending $50,000 on restoration here in Lebanon to bring it up to a market value of $100,000. But the evaluator says: ‘No, this is a Lamborghini Mura. They sold one in England for £150,000 (about $300,000), so you have to pay $100,000 duty here.’ It’s left to the judgment of a single person. We need a small bureau set up, with three or four people who are not in it for themselves, whom you don’t have to bribe to reduce the amount.”

A law prohibiting the import of models whose production line ended less than 30 years ago further burdens Lebanon’s vintage vehicle market. This, say classic car fans, is a misguided effort to protect Lebanon’s domestic second hand car market.

Classic car fans also mourn the loss of many examples of pre-war motoring glory – several Ferrari Daytonas and Dinos, a host of Lamborghini Muras, Maseratis and at least one navy-blue soft-top Aston Martin DB6 Volante – that were bought for peanuts during the conflict, exported to Europe and the US and sold for a fortune during the classic car boom of the late 80s. The upshot is that there is less awareness of classic cars, another factor that has stunted the growth of a vintage culture. “Cars that normally sold for $20,000 were changing hands at $100,000. Those at $200,000 went up to a million. The sky was the limit,” Amiouni said.

Sitting despondently on a folding chair to a row of gleaming vintage vehicles outside a rundown classic car showroom in Furn al-Chubbak established by his late father, Georges Constantin is quick to concede that classic car dealing is dead in Lebanon. “There’s no business,” he mused. “And it’s been getting worse and worse for seven years now. There used to be money. Now there is none. The few clients we do have are from the Gulf.

But maybe the real problem behind a thriving vintage market is the Lebanese themselves. Last year over a classic car show organized at the Faqra Country Club by independent cars owner clubs was the catalyst for a feud with the Lebanese of the Federation of Vintage Cars, which was accused of blocking the show. The Federation claimed it was merely following federation guidelines, which prohibit unofficial car shows.

Insiders claimed that if the two groups – the federation and the independent owners clubs – joined forces, they would be able to more effectively lobby the government to reduce duties and make it easier for collectors and restorers to enjoy their hobby.

“But this is Lebanon for you,” lamented Amiouni. “We never unite to make a good thing better.”

September 9, 2005 0 comments
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Special Section

Consumer car trends

by William Long September 9, 2005
written by William Long

Lebanese car buyer – especially the one interested in purchasing a new car – is a bit more nuanced than some may think.

In fact, while it may seem as though many consumers will do anything to purchase a Mercedes or a BMW – perhaps even risking their luck on a rock bottom used import with a questionable past (see page XXX) – the reality is that many new car buyers do care about safety standards, fuel economy, durability and about practical mechanics such as how powerfully a car might accelerate up a 30 degree incline on Damascus road while passing an overloaded cement truck (during rush hour).

After all, in Lebanon, buying a new car is often considered as much more of a long term investment than in the US and the EU.

“It is not that they know everything about the car,” explained Nagi Abou Adal of Adal Volvo. “But they are well informed when they come in here and they do care about safety. As you know, our roads are not safe, not only because of the infrastructure but also because of the driving pattern. So I see a lot of concerned parents who want their children to drive a Volvo because it is known for being extremely safe.”

“The Lebanese consider buying a car like buying a house,” said Cesar Aoun, brand manager for Smart Car. “So they want to feel certain in their investment.

“But,” he added, “rather than go to a consumer magazine, like some may in the US, the Lebanese buyer generally trusts in who the dealer is, the family name and the relationship that has developed over time.”

Still, it is clear that the Lebanese desire to be perceived as fashionable nevertheless acts as a powerful market mover – influencing dealers to balance an emphasis on safety and economy with a need to stand out, especially among younger consumers.

“Our strategy for Lebanon is to show that Smart Car is definitely functional and it is economic, but because of its special design and the quality of the inside – which is Mercedes standard – it is a premium brand with a fashion look,” Aoun said.

“For educated consumers, things like electronic brake distributors and a one nutshell chassy matter… But Lebanese people live in a cosmopolitan country and wealthy people, in particular, are very concerned about brands and lifestyle.”

“In the past,” explained Abou Adal, “We were known for not emphasizing design. Volvo realized that this was a drawback, so, [globally], they are trying to change from a serious safety oriented company to a trendy one that is still safe … and you can see that in our new models. As a result, the average age of a Volvo owner used to be 40, but we are now considered as a first car for 20 plus drivers… here in Lebanon as well.”

Noting the emergence of the trendy, but more expensive ($25,000 plus) Beetle, Mini Cooper and Citroen C1 – the latter of which is set to enter the market later this year in direct competition with the Smart For Two – Aoun added that Lebanese new car buyers are generally less price consciousness.

“Even though they may not have the money, they would overdo their budget and get a bigger loan to get a fashionable car.”

While dealers differ as to the relative discernment of the Lebanese new car buyer, one thing is certain: price does ultimately matter even if some buyers overdo it.

Indeed, in the first 7 months of 2005, the top five leading dealers in Lebanon were primarily selling sensibly priced brands like KIA, Peugeot and Toyota – cars that generally sell in the $10,000-$14,000 range. Although estimates very, this economy car segment most likely constituted at least half the overall market.

According to data from the Association of Car Importers in Lebanon, of the 9,626 new vehicles sold in the first seven months of 2005, the Peugeot brand (Sidia SAL) led the pack with 1,085 passenger vehicles sold – Sidia held 11.6 percent of the overall market in passenger and commercial vehicles sold. Rasamny Younis Motor Company, who was the market leader with 13.3 percent of overall sales, managed to sell 1,018 Nissan cars January to July – albeit with many higher priced brands mixed in like Nissan’s SUV line.

Next, in terms of market share, was Bassoul Heneine SAL which captured 12 percent of new vehicle consumers (1,169) – sensibly divided between Renault (592) and BMW (408). BUMC (10.7 percent of the overall market) sold 848 Toyotas, while Natco SAL held 8 percent through sales of KIA (788).

According to Fayez C. Rasamny, Sales General Manager at Rasamny-Younis Motor Company, many thrifty Lebanese help reduce the purchasing cost of a new car by trading in their old car at the dealership – at least 40 percent each year at his alone.

What’s more, although overall statistics are unavailable, the majority of buyers choose to finance their cars – up to 75 percent according to one dealer, although economy buyers generally finance less as a segment.

With plentiful bank options – nearly all banks now offer financing arrangements – and favorable terms that average five years at rates between 4.5 and 4.9 percent, it’s little wonder that so many buyers choose to take on monthly payments that for economy cars can come in under $200.

“We used to finance directly,” explained Negib I. Debs, sales manager at T. Gargour & Fils Mercedes-Benz, where buyers also often choose to finance. “But now Mercedes-Benz uses banks. The down payment is around 20 percent, it is compulsory to take insurance and the rate varies between 4.5 and 4.9 percent depending on the bank.”

From the perspective of the banks, the sector has clearly become an important part of doing business in the country – although because of the competition, profit margins are slim.

“We target mostly individuals,” said Georges W. Aouad, the head of retail banking at Bank of Beirut. “But the margins are very, very low in the car loan sector… some participate even if they are losing money.”

One area than both banks and dealers have generally steered clear of is the relatively new lease to own option.

For now, banks generally refuse to offer lease financing because of the lack of a down payment and risk (two reasons why consumers in the US and EU choose the option). At the same time, although a few dealers like Rasamny Younis do offer lease to own arrangements in house to preferred clients, dealers themselves generally steer clear of the arrangements for three reasons: First, the Lebanese mindset generally eschews leasing because as one dealer put it, “they don’t like the green license plate that is for rentals; they want to be seen driving a car they own.” Second, under the current law, there is a double taxation on registration since the leased car is first registered by the dealer and then, after the buy option is chosen, registered to the individual. And third, most dealers are generally unequipped to offer replacement cars.

“What is called leasing in Lebanon is not real leasing,” said Volvo’s Abou Adal. “There are a lot of legal issues that are not solved yet so it is ‘more like disguised rentals.”

The complications have left leasing to rental car companies like Avis who is limited by law to offering a maximum lease term of four years – which itself pushes monthly payments higher.

“If you compare buying a new car to leasing it and then buying it, the end result is similar,” said Diala Ghostine, director of sales at Avis.

Even so, according to Avis’ own calculations, buying a new Audi A3 at $28,500 with VAT ends up costing almost $38,000 after three years (factoring in registration fees, insurance, maintenance and additional VAT) while under the leasing arrangement the end cost to own is more than $40,000, with stiff monthly payments of $769.

Although the benefits of no down payment and free maintenance etc. are clearly attractive, with three year warranty deals from some dealers the advantages clearly diminish.

Which is perhaps why Ghostine’s clients are mainly corporations and not individuals for the time being – corporations who generally choose not to buy at the end.

“Lebanese people want to invest in a car they think they will drive for seven years – I don’t think so, but they think that …..so for these people, leasing is not an option.”

Whether leasing overcomes its various hurdles or not, for many Lebanese buyers, whether price conscious or not, fashion addict or safety first, an emphasis on options and the latest models is critically important.

According to Volvos Abou Adal, “Almost all of our cars are sold with leather” a choice echoed by many other dealers. “In Europe it is a much lower proportion. Automatic transmission is also considered a must so you can see that there are some specifics that we have in the Lebanese car market.”

A Bluetooth wireless car kit and I-pod installation is also proving popular for Smart Car buyers. In fact,” half of our customers want the I-pod function and they also want a special sound system and sun roof,” said Aoun, the latter of which generally applies to the market.

Also desirable: access to the newest model for popular standbys and, of course, the big SUVs that are generally either despised or loved on the roads.

“We launched the new 4X4 M class two months ago and it now looks like we are going to have big numbers,” said Mercedes’ Debs. “On the other hand, the coupes and convertibles, the nicest to look at, are extremely popular but not in volume – the enthusiasm among consumers is unbounded.”

Unbounded also appears to be the watchword for the new Nissan Pathfinder that Rasamny-Younis is set to unveil later this Fall.

“We had a hit with the old Nissan Pathfinder,” Rasamny said enthusiastically, noting that his dealership sold more than 2,000 Pathfinders between1998 and 2004. “The new one that is coming will be competitively priced with the Toyota Prado in the $50,000 range with full options, but you know for one year we did not have the Pathfinder and now a lot of enthusiasts are asking about it, so I think it will be a hit.

“You know,” he added smiling, “After all, the Lebanese love these big cars.”

September 9, 2005 0 comments
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Special Section

2005 car insurance

by Thomas Schellen September 9, 2005
written by Thomas Schellen

Slightly over two years after effectively beginning to implement mandatory motor insurance, the number of motor vehicles with Third-Party-Liability (TPL) coverage against bodily injury claims has risen to levels drastically above those reached before 2003. According to best available assessments, vehicles with some form of insurance now number 800,000 to 900,000, or a good cut above 80% of the country’s estimated 1.05 million cars and trucks in circulation.

As the number of insured motorists has more than doubled over the period, some of the worst fears of insurance industry leaders over inadequate premiums for the compulsory coverage seem to have mellowed.

One particular worry in the industry had been that the government-stipulated premium range of $40 to $60 for a year of TPL insurance against bodily injury, although in the lower bandwidth of actuarial calculations, was still being undercut by some insurers willing to sell this insurance for as little as $20.

Companies offering such dumping prices could easily be thrown into insolvency through a series of larger claims cases that they would find themselves unable to pay out and such bankruptcies would derail the insurance sector’s still feeble reputation, went the fears. Other frequently voiced concerns were over the need to have a pool covering accidents involving uninsured/unregistered cars and its negative financial impact on the insurance industry and the internationally proven tendency of claims awards going up after introduction of mandatory insurance, and the related costs to the providers.

Up to now most fears expressed by providers during the introduction of compulsory motor insurance have been unwarranted, said Walid Genadry, head of the Insurance Control Commission at the Ministry of Economy and Trade, which is in charge of monitoring the compliance of insurance companies with regulations and solvency requirements. “There are no serious concerns from supervisory perspective,” Genadry told Executive, acknowledging however that a handful of insurance companies achieved increases in premium production based on TPL sales that were disproportional to their market position.

The first two years of compulsory motor insurance were apparently on all counts less eventful than the industry had expected during the long political discussions and arduous efforts that had preceded the implementation of the law. Although a few companies, presumably by selling compulsory motor insurance at or below the minimum mandatory annual premiums, could boost their premium turnover from amounts in the $500,000 range to $2 million or more, many larger insurance firms did not greatly increase their portfolio of motor premiums.

Not interested in taking on risks insuring cars of advanced age and /or questionable road safety, these providers often push sales of the mandatory TPL cover only in conjunction with a profitable no-fault insurance package or at least a full TPL package combining bodily injury and material damage covers. Typically selling for between $120 and $150, these latter packages may still be inexpensive for the covers they provide but their comparative to the cheapest mandatory providers’ higher costs act as a barrier against customers who are only willing or able to purchase the cheapest insurance in the market.

“We don’t readily give TPL to unknown clients and will not underwrite TPL for bodily injury alone unless it is for a very big client,” said Fadi Chammas, general manager of Arabia Insurance. The bodily injury cover alone is cheap and very volatile, assessed Max Zaccar, general manager of Commercial Insurance. “We sell motor insurance, but not bodily injury alone,” he said.

Insurance leaders are far from convinced that concerns over the viability of compulsory motor insurance are moot. Costs of motor insurance have been driven up already by the fact that VAT costs had not been included when the premium ceilings for compulsory insurance had been determined, said Chammas, in whose opinion the financial results of selling compulsory motor insurance “are bad, forcing providers into losses.”

Court rulings over personal injury or death claims already have been tending towards awarding higher damage amounts when the judges knew that insurance companies rather than the individuals involved in an accident would have to pay, said Lucien Letayf Jr, general manager of Libano-Suisse Insurance. He also admonished that changes in the rules on settling claims now would force insurers to pay out claims in the first instance when the motorist had caused the accident in question while driving under the influence of alcohol or even intentionally, through a proven vehicular homicide. “We are not very happy with the existing law,” Letayf said.

What is undisputed by insurance companies and the regulator is that material damage coverage has to be included as soon as possible into the compulsory motor insurance, in order to achieve a farther reaching protection of society against the impacts of traffic accidents. One important question in this context is however for some insurance executives if it is not necessary to be more stringent in weeding out unethically acting and unprofessionally managed companies from the sector before implementing this second phase of compulsory insurance. Other managers ask that the ministry of economy would continue to stipulate a minimum amount at which TPL policies can be sold and enforce this minimum but abstain from imposing upwards ceilings and instead leave price determination on the upper end of the equation to providers and market forces. 

Adding to the uncertainty over appropriateness of premiums is that currently there exist neither conclusive statistics on the sector’s cumulative premium volume from motor insurance in general or mandatory TPL, nor have insurance companies and the industry association ACAL hitherto compiled and published sector figures on claims paid out in motor insurance. A first survey on the loss ratios of TPL insurance is underway but as long as its results are outstanding, no clear picture on the real cost and effectiveness of the now existing mandatory insurance is possible.   

However, compulsory motor insurance in any case has not contributed a great deal to the sector’s bottom line, suggested Zaccar. If 500,000 new contracts for compulsory bodily injury covers had been added at a value of $30 per policy to the industry’s total annual premium volume, this represents merely $15 million in additional turnover divided among some 45 insurance companies, he said, or less than 3 % of the sector’s balance sheet.         

 Still, the reality of compulsory motor insurance is a factor in the spreading of insurance awareness and in slowly increasing insuredness on national level. Standardized motor insurance products are suited especially for being sold over the counter of banks through the bancassurance distribution channel as well as through other non-conventional distribution channels, said Letayf.

A significant part of the insufficiencies associated with implementing motor insurance in Lebanon stems from overall weakness of concepts on the long-term financial losses caused by an accident. People widely do not approach the issue of an accidental death or traffic casualty under the aspect of the damage from the loss of the individual’s earning power. Thus on the sides of the insured and insurers, the cultural propensity is leaning towards lower assessments of accident damages and eventual underestimation of the impact of traffic accidents on the national economy.  

This point was emphasized strongly in a 2004 study evaluating road safety in Lebanon and outlining the need for a master plan to improve road safety. Undertaken by SweRoad, a Swedish road safety consulting specialist, the study reinforced doubts on the number of traffic casualties in Lebanon and, based on reassessing these numbers upwards, attributed road accidents with having caused at the very least $500 million in damage to Lebanon’s GDP for the year 2003, and probably much more.

While unfailingly polite and careful to carry a positive tone throughout, the report passed a judgment on road safety in Lebanon that was as unsurprising as it was damning on literally every aspect of road safety and national planning of sustainable traffic. If no measures are taken to improve road safety, the report estimated that fatality numbers from traffic accidents would go up by 20 to 35% over the next five years, with the resultant increased damage to the national economy.

In light of such figures it seems nonsensical to assume that insurance coverage worth about $50 million to $60 million for TPL coverage of 800,000 to 1.05 million motor vehicles could decisively aid the country in managing the costs of road accidents. Nor, and very importantly, does it seem likely that current, unrefined premiums for mandatory TPL could create a substantial impulse towards having motorists adopt more defensive driving habits and make greater safety efforts.

Thus, further improving insurance requirements for motorists and achieving greater sophistication of motor-related insurance products will only have a robustly positive impact if such developments are achieved in concert with overall road safety gains. [box]

Motorists may currently still have access to TPL insurance at bargain prices. But considering the possibility that traffic accident numbers and fatalities in Lebanon, contrary to trends in developed nations, could increase further, the outlook on future costs of road accidents to society and individuals may be devastating – unless a radical change in road safety policies and attitudes can be accomplished.

September 9, 2005 0 comments
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Special Section

Avoiding Death Traps

by William Long September 9, 2005
written by William Long

Take a drive along any of the main highways out of Beirut and it quickly becomes apparent that the Lebanese love, and have always loved, the muscle, sleek lines, reliability and prestige of Mercedes and BMWs.
Of course, along with that love affair is an fortunate dilemma, one that is perhaps emblematic of a wider social pathology: The Lebanese love their luxury brands but in many cases cannot afford them.
What this means is, according to informal estimates (statistics are not available for used car sales), the 461 new Mercedes and 609 new BMWs sold in Lebanon last year were more than outpaced by the number of used models sold to consumers eager to invest in and show off their “new” Mercedes and BMW.
The problem is that over the past four months alone, at least four people have died in accidents in which their luxury Mercedes rather unluxuriously split in half. While there have been past reports of similar incidents over the years, the true number of accidents related to used cars with welded chassis and bodies is also, unfortunately, unavailable; as is the overall number of so-called “half-cars” on the road today.
What is certain is that the death of Tyre MP Ali Khalil and his wife in early April, after the Mercedes they were driving split in half during a crash in wet weather on main road South, momentarily focused attention on the sometimes shadowy world of used cars – especially on the part of the market, an apparently large part of the market, that relies on the import of damaged vehicles and half-cars that are condemned as scrap in Europe and North America.

“The Scientific Research Foundation published a report recently that said these vehicles that are welded together are considered the most dangerous on our roads,” said Ziad Akl, President of YASA International.

“We do know at least that there were at least 120 accidents last year alone due to such cars – and while not all crashes led to death it is still a serious problem. These used cars that are coming here need to be inspected fully before they enter the country because right now this is absent.”
According to several car agents, all of whom requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject, under the status quo, a BMW involved in a serious traffic accident in France, for example, will essentially have its chassis serial number and license blacklisted for resell or repair. At this point, a Lebanese used car dealer would buy the car from the insurance company as scrap, cut it in half and ship it to Lebanon along with numerous other half cars and spare parts.
At customs, where rules and regulations are notoriously fluid, the half-car can mostly escape the sizable tariffs levied on new cars (used cars, including damaged cars, face the same tariff rate as new cars but have their value determined by the Blue Book listing). They can also escape the albeit limited safety testing that all cars must submit to. After all, it’s not really a car. In fact, the half-car is officially listed as a spare part.
Once in-country, with no legitimate service history required of used or damaged cars, the car is then welded together with another anonymous half car – not necessarily its natural half either…for better or worse, in sickness and in health – and is promptly put on the block at used car lots across the country.
Meanwhile, the prospective buyer has only the word of the dealer to go as to the prior condition of the vehicle (Lebanon has no “Lemon Law” that would provide used car buyers with full refunds should the car fail within a certain amount of time).
According to one new, luxury car dealer, whose shop services his brand’s used cars and whose own sales are naturally affected by the presence of lower cost used cars, horror stories abound in the industry.
“We have seen cars that are unimaginable,” the dealer said. “We checked one car that was apparently perfect, but with a simple AC problem. We took the dashboard off and noticed that the car had had a huge accident where the airbags had gone off.
“The airbags had not replaced,” he exclaimed, after a momentary pause to emphasize the point. “It was in perfect condition… but there were no airbags. The owner had no idea.”
“Look,” explained another new car dealer, outlining the critical problem in the used car sector as a whole. “You can bring just about anything into Lebanon. If you buy a car here and ship it to France, however, you have to pass a whole series of quality control tests most of which we do not have here. Also you can’t bring a car into France that is not already legally sold as a brand there.”
“I can bring in five, whole used cars and sell them at my dealership if I wanted,” noted one dealer who sells both new and used cars. “I would pay customs at the border or at the port and that is it – there is no tax on my profits, the VAT may or may not be registered and I don’t have after sales issues since if I sell him a scrap car it is his problem.”
While most used car dealers refused to comment on the issue, the four months that have passed since MP Khalil’s death have apparently lessened the sense of an imminent crackdown to the extent that at least one repair and assembling company dealer felt comfortable enough to joke about the matter.
“It’s a death trap,” laughed one dealer as he motioned vigorously to the two BMW half-cars that lay in plain view outside his Furn el Chaabeck shop. “No, seriously though. We do a good job and it is safe. But then again you may find half of you on one side of the road and half on the other!”
When pressed that, in fact, this had happened to several people recently – or at least they had died whole in a luxury car that itself had split in half – the dealer only shrugged and said gravely: “We Lebanese love our Mercedes; we are doing the best we can to give them what they want.”
After a pause, he added, incorrectly, that, “I think that it may even be legal to sell welded cars in Germany, but I am not sure.”
Although such crass behavior is probably not representative of the majority of used car dealers and garages in Lebanon, contrary to the published claims of used car dealers about a clear separation between dealerships that import both damaged and half-cars and those that don’t, several new car dealers interviewed by Executive claimed that the practice of refitting damaged and half-cars was widespread.
Indeed one used car dealer claimed that behind almost every used car lot there is a repair and assembling shop that churns out previously damaged or half-cars.
In the end, while a relative paucity of regulation is clearly to blame for much of the current situation (inspectors don’t check the frame of used cars coming into the country for example) the high tariffs levied on new cars and good condition used cars also play a significant role in creating the market for less expensive, but potentially dangerous vehicles.
When customs, VAT and registration fees end up raising the sticker price by 75 percent or more on a new luxury car, it is little wonder that some dealers will even go to potentially dangerous lengths to satiate the unyielding Lebanese demand for brand name purchases that seems to have diminished little. As one motoring journalist commented, “everyone knows its going on but they either don’t see it as a problem or they believe it’s always the other guy who is being conned.”

September 9, 2005 0 comments
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Special Section

New car story

by William Long September 9, 2005
written by William Long

Until the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February, Lebanon’s 33 new car dealers had been enjoying something of a sweet ride, despite their persistent complaints of high taxes and fees that in some cases can more than double the cost of buying a new car.

Indeed, according to data from the Association of Car Importers in Lebanon, sales of commercial and passenger vehicles in January 2005 alone saw a 26 percent jump over the same period in 2004 (1,522 new passenger vehicles and 123 commercial vehicles were sold in January of this year while 1,225 passenger and 79 commercial vehicles were sold in January last year).

In fact, though the president of the association, Samir Homsi, noted that Lebanon had seen better years, new car sales for all of 2004 jumped almost 30 percent compared to 2003 (from 15,921 vehicles in 2003 to 20,455 vehicles in 2004).

Of course, as with so many aspects of Lebanon’s economy, the assassination badly hobbled the industry, nearly halving sales for almost all dealers in the months of February, March and April.
For at least one dealer though, the downturn provided a perfect moment for a new introduction.
“We decided to launch the new 3 series during this period even though it was a risk,” said Nagy Heneine, General Manager at Bassoul Heneine BMW. “From our marketing point of view, we thought that even if we did not sell, the visibility would be very high because no one was doing a launch. So the main focus was not to sell immediately but to tell people that there was a new 3 series in the market… [Ultimately] it was valuable.”
In contrast, most dealers choose to wait out the slump. By May though, the wait was over: The dealers partially resuscitated their sales figures be initiating an aggressive campign of special discounts and deals widely advertised in the local media (May sales increased almost 75 percent over April).
Although the “No VAT” or “registration included” offers clearly impacted the bottom line of participating dealers, a cost that none cared to specify but that almost surely reached the tens of millions of dollars, May, June and July overall saw 5,284 new vehicles sold compared to 5,993 during the same period in 2004 – a more manageable 11 percent drop-off in sales year on.

“Everyone in the car industry was burdened with heavy inventory so there were quite good offers for customers,” explained Nagi Abou Adal of Adal Volvo. “In our case, for a limited period of time and on certain models, you could buy without paying VAT or you could choose to take a larger discount – our normal discount is four percent but we increased this to 7-8 percent off the sticker price.

“The result was that we sold out on those cars and lowered inventory.”

By August, most dealers had also roughly gotten back to the status quo, but the financial beating they had taken in the process clearly hit a sore spot for the industry as a whole, thus raising anew the issue of the onerous tax and duty policies applied by the Lebanese government.

Added to this the “Dollar effect” which pushed the prices of European brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW and others ever higher, and the result was a number of fed-up business owners tired of competing and selling in an otherwise promising market with two hands tied behind their backs.

“The volume of sales would certainly increase and the government would make more money if they just reduced the customs duty, the VAT and the registration fee,” argued Homsi. “If they did this we would also improve environmental quality, because newer cars are, in some cases 80 percent cleaner. At the same time, our medical bill would be less because newer cars are safer, and, [consumers] would benefit because they would get a warranty on average of three years which means you do not have to pay for major repairs during this time.”

Michel Trad, managing director of Saad & Trad agents for Fiat, Jaguar, Bentley, Lamborghini and Ferrari, believes that the government should abolish the rather complicated layered taxation system altogether and simply impose a 20% tax on all cars. “This will make it cheaper for the customer and increase revenues for the government who will have encouraged bigger sales volumes.”

According to Negib I. Debs, sales manager at T. Gargour & Fils Mercedes-Benz, a Mercedes-Benz model that might sell for $100,000 in Dubai would be $150,000 here in Lebanon after customs since the rate is set at 20 percent of the car’s value for models below 20 million Lebanese Pounds and 50 percent of the value above that level.

“Then you have the 10 percent VAT and after that you have to pay registration – something that is nonexistent in most Gulf countries and in parts of Europe.

“In Germany,” he added, “registering an S-600 costs 150 Euros. In Lebanon, it can go up to $12,000 for the same model because the registration rate of six percent is tariffed onto the custom’s value of the car, which in this case is above $200,000.”

As a result, not only is local demand stifled; so to is the demand of Gulf tourists who summer in Lebanon but who find is cheaper to ship their own (mostly luxury) cars here rather than buying an expensive brand locally.

“We are missing out on this market … and our own local market at the same time,” said Debs who estimated that, by reducing taxes and fees, Mercedes-Benz could sell well in excess of one thousand new cars each year (or more than double their current activity) in Lebanon.

“And what would happen is that people who could not afford the C-180 for example would now be able to buy it. As a result, the quality of the cars being bought would go up, less used cars would be sold and overall activity would increase.”

According to Volvo’s Abou Adal, who like many Lebanese dealers has been operating for close to a half century, such moves by the government would also come at exactly the moment when dealers are being pressed by the depreciated value of the dollar.

“Dealers of European cars from Germany and Sweden have seen their costs rise 30-35 percent because we sell in dollars. We are trying to fight this in various ways but the sticker prices have had to rise.”

That said, despite the various struggles and the “ongoing negotiations” with the government – which usually means more delays rather than imminent reform – some dealers willingly signal their confidence that the worst has passed and, burdensome registration fees or not, the new car market is slowly but surely returning to the days when sales saw increases rather than slumps.

“January was excellent,’ explained Fayez C. Rasamny, Sales General Manager at Rasamny-Younis Motor Company (a new and used car dealer for GMC and Nissan). “Then we had the drop off… But now in August we can say that we have come back to normal.

“In fact,” he added, “the forecast is that we will move to the pre-assassination period when we saw steady growth.”

It is a sentiment echoed by Michel Trad.  “We are recovering slowly. We had a fantastic 2004 and January 2005 and then the market collapsed completely,” said Trad. “We rely a lot on the rental market and the high-end tourists did not show up this year. Simple as that.” Trad did however say that sales were picking up and that despite all the problems to have blighted the country he expected overall sales to be down by what he considered to be an acceptable 15%. Jaguar has been a good performer for Saad and Trad especially since 1999 and the launch of the S-Type, which was followed up by the equally marketable X-Type. “Before 1999 we were selling around 40 models a year. Last year we were doing more than 200,” he said. 

September 9, 2005 0 comments
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Feature

MTV relaunch set for next year

by Peter Grimsditch September 9, 2005
written by Peter Grimsditch

For the youngsters appearing on Mini-Studio, an entertainment TV show being broadcast in the late afternoon, it was their chance for a few minutes of fame. But the children’s bid for stardom on the MTV program came to an abrupt halt. Security forces burst into the company’s premises in the RML building in Sassine, Achrafieh, and ordered a technician to pull the plug on the young people’s ambitions. The staff was evicted, leaving even personal belongings behind, and the five floors belonging to the station were sealed. That was on September 4, 2002, a couple of months before MTV’s 11th anniversary.

Since Parliament lifted the broadcasting ban in the middle of last month, the enfant terrible of television is set for a multi-million dollar comeback. MTV plans to reappear on the airwaves in the first few months of 2006 although a precise date has not yet been set.

The 2002 raid included simultaneous swoops on 19 mostly unmanned relay stations, needed to extend coverage to the entire country, as well as the unfinished Studiovision premises in Naccache that will house the reborn MTV. At the time Naccache was solely a program production center belonging to an allied, but separate, company.

Outspoken and out of a job

MTV’s crime had been an alleged breach of Article 68 of the law covering broadcasts at election time. The provision stipulates that broadcasts during an electoral period will not favor one particular candidate. In June of that year, MTV’s founder, Gabriel El-Murr, had been elected to Parliament after a bitterly disputed contest with his niece, Mirna El-Murr, for a Metn seat. To this day, MTV emphatically denies the charge of broadcasting bias, saying that Mirna had refused invitations to appear on the station to put her point of view.

Closure left the 453 people on the payroll in September 2002 without a job. In the ensuing uncertainty about the probable length of the ban, they hung around waiting for a reopening. The law stipulated a three-month ban for any station showing bias but the interpretation in MTV’s case rested on a single word. The relevant clause speaks of a tam (complete) closure. While MTV took this to mean shutting down the whole station, as opposed to pulling the plug on the offending program, the authorities interpreted it as meaning “indefinite”.

At first lawyers tried to get the ban lifted through the judicial system and the Publications Court. When that appeared doomed to failure, the company’s energies were poured into two parallel tracks. Campaigning for the return of the license switched from the judicial system to lobbying politicians while commercially developing Studiovision to produce programs, commercials and video clips for external customers.

Alwaleed steps in to help

Some of the 453 people were absorbed into program production at the Naccache business and MTV’s key executives were also retained. But most of the original staff stayed months without a job before eventually finding work on other stations, either in Lebanon or abroad.

The Naccache premises turned into a hive of industry making programs for many of Arabic language television’s major players. Among the clients were New TV, Al Hurrah, MBC, Orbit and the Hizbollah station Al Manar. Another important source of revenue was the four channels of Rotana, which are owned by the Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who also holds a 10 percent stake in the company. Rather than let this lucrative business drop, Studiovision is in the process of constructing a second building in Naccache, bringing the total investment to around $60 million, and plans a third for some time in 2007. The second building is due for completion by the end of the year, provide, according to MTV, “we don’t meet any major snags”. In any case, at the time of the closure MTV was planning to move from Achrafieh to the first building in Naccache, which has seven floors underground as well as the half dozen above ground overlooking the Mediterranean.

Seeing the financial light

and bigger audiences

In the tight and tough world of a Lebanese media business fighting for a slice of the declining total advertising revenue, MTV says that it had built up by 2002 a 26 percent market share of the gross $60 million available. Commission paid to external advertising sales forces, the regie, swallows up more than a third of that. The audience figures, too, were encouraging. Published figures had most frequently placed MTV as number two behind LBC. MTV claims these statistics are suspect and that often it was the leader of the pack. The station says it may not have had household name hosts like Marcel Ghanem, but the content of political talk shows run by presenters such as Paula Yacoubian, Ziad Njeim and Eli Nacouzi attracted as much attention.

It was the political content that had first brought MTV into conflict with the authorities. The station started broadcasting in November 1991 but news and politics were not introduced until two-and-a-half years later. The official MTV line is that it was not confrontational and did not display overt opposition to the regime. Nevertheless it was controversial in taking decisions to interview General Michel Aoun in Paris in 1997 at a time when contact with him was considered illegal. It also the first TV station, through the medium of its talk shows, to broadcast calls for the release from prison of Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea. However, it was the departure of the Israelis from Lebanese soil in May 2000 that encouraged MTV to raise the tempo and the profile of its political coverage and its opposition to the Syrian presence in Lebanon. While that brought increased interest and larger audiences, it also led to a series of unofficial visits by people carrying warnings that it was getting out of line. MTV was the only TV station to air graphic footage showing the violence used to put down the pro-Aoun and Geagea demonstrations of August 9, 2001. It also regularly conducted TV polls that were thinly disguised encouragement to calls for the departure of the Syrians. The closure move. However, came after Gabriel El-Murr’s election to Parliament. Murr is a shareholder and not an executive director of the station.

Breakthrough in quest

for reactivating the license

If Gabriel El-Murr’s removal from Parliament only three months (his victory was deemed to have been illegal) after his election and closure of the station were the lowest points in MTV’s history, the recent upward turn also started with an horrific event. The change of political climate brought about by the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri on February 14 and the subsequent anti-Syria demonstrations convinced MTV’s directors that obtaining permission to reopen the airwaves was only a matter of time. But, as the chairman, Michel Gabriel El-Murr, remarked, “constructing is harder than destructing”. Well before the August 16 parliamentary decision that restored the station (and changed the closure period for infringing the law on election coverage from three months to three days), MTV had set up two task forces. The first lobbied political figures while the second concentrated on technical issues of financing, programming and staffing.

International advisers were brought in to help with studies on strategy, finance, advertising and communication. Separate studies on technical and artistic needs identified what was missing, alongside suggestions on how to plug the gaps.

There is already a complete programming grid for the reopening and some programs have been commissioned. The hunt for staff is in full swing and the reception at Naccache is sometimes under siege from young hopefuls trying to break into the glamour of television. Around 4,500 people have sent in their CVs and many of the former staff are also making contact. The new staff level is projected at around 550, or 100 more than when MTV was closed down. This is mainly because the terrestrial and satellite stations will be two separate legal entities and need more people. The stated prime reason for two services is that audiences at home and abroad have different requirements and therefore need different services. While this is valid, MTV also accepts that separation provides an insurance that any future attack on the terrestrial station would not automatically close its sister satellite service. In September 2002, the satellite service was closed down as well because it was an integral part of the same company.

All day, all night

and mostly home-made

Most TV stations make their money on adverts aired during the three hours of evening prime time, although MTV sees it as extending these days until one or two in the morning. The new 24-hour program schedule will consist completely of domestically made programs for prime time and around 75 percent for the rest of the schedule. Although making programs is expensive, so too now is buying them. The increase in the number of satellite broadcasters worldwide has increased the competition to buy programs and consequently upped the prices being asked, especially for those intended to be aired on satellite stations. It’s still a reasonable commercial proposition for terrestrial stations to buy films, sitcoms and dramas. The prices are lower because the potential viewing audience is relatively small and the programs can be sold to many countries.

On the advertising front, MTV hopes to regain its market share in two years and says the big spenders are already lining up to buy time on the terrestrial channel. The gross advertising income for the last full financial year of operations, 2001-2, was $13 million. That total was amassed by an in-house company, thus reducing the commission expenses of working through a regie.

Politically the station plans to be as forthright as ever. The subjects for airing will not change although the methods may be more “sophisticated”.  “MTV won’t follow any single particular political group,” said Michael Gabriel Murr. “The opposition it used to represent is now split between loyalists and opposition now. In any case, MTV is for all the Lebanese. There is mutual respect between us and Aoun and we have a lot in common with him. We have no hatred for (President Emile) Lahoud or anyone else.”

In search of millions

from ‘suitable investors’

The company has no official figure on the amount of money the closure has cost but calculates that it runs into tens of millions of dollars. It is also exploring ways to receive compensation for at least some of its losses. “We want indemnities from the government,” said Michel Gabriel El-Murr. “We are annoyed that after international adjudications for Cellis and LibanCell, they are ready to pay, whereas for local matters they aren’t.” As Executive went to press, the RML building in Achrafieh was still sealed and there was no way of knowing how much of the equipment could be salvaged. In any case it is three more years out of date.

Nor is MTV revealing at present how much money it is seeking from investors. Industry analysts put a figure of around $60-70 million a year to run two stations, with pure news channels like Al-Jazeera somewhat less at $40-50 million. The Gabriel El-Murr family controls more than 65 percent of MTV and the relaunched terrestrial station will be 100 percent Lebanese owned. The satellite company doesn’t yet exist yet and the identity of the shareholders has not been decided. “The big challenge is to gather the necessary number of shareholders and partners and funds,” said Michel Gabriel El-Murr. “It is not only about money; it is about meeting the ambitions and aspirations and sharing the same principles and values with the MTV.” But even like-minded investors don’t get a say on the station’s content. “It’s a tough challenge but MTV specializes in difficult situations,” added El-Murr.

That’s a thought that reflects the program being aired on the satellite channel at the time of the closure – Tlob w Tmana (“Ask for something and wish for something”).

Peter Grimsditch is Middle East correspondent of the London Daily Express and former editor of The Daily Star

September 9, 2005 0 comments
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For your information

Ineke Botter

by Executive Contributor September 9, 2005
written by Executive Contributor

With the mass migration of almost one million 03 mobile numbers to the 71 prefix set for the night of September 17, Ineke Botter, Managing Director and CEO of Alfa, would have every right in the world to be a bit nervous. After all, the switchover involves several private and governmental entities, not to mention the Lebanese public itself who is not necessarily given to listening to patient lessons on the need to reformat the country’s collective digital phonebook. The thing is that Botter is not particularly nervous – at least not outwardly. In fact, while the four week lead up to the switchover will undoubtedly involve her in a blizzard of PR and outreach efforts, she’s as focused as ever on the big picture: Revamping the mobile network, offering expanded services and, hopefully, expanding the customer base so overall rates might eventually come down.

Executive: Lebanon is set to see the mobile code 03 change to 71 in mid September. What is Alfa doing to inform a potentially confused public about the switch?

Ineke Botter: We are doing a lot now. We started with a kick off interview on LBC…. and the Ministry of Telecommunications (MoT) will organize a press conference shortly. We are talking to each and every paper and magazine, and we will have a billboard campaign with Alfa, MTC, Ogero and MoT along highways – around 1,500 in all. We will also have a number of inserts in magazines etc. When the mobile code 03 is transferred to 71 on the night of September 17 and into September 18, if you make a call nationally to 03 then you have to change to 71. If it is an international incoming call however, then it will be forwarded automatically to 71 forever – although the caller will get a message to dial 71 next time. So we are doing a lot of “pretty” work and a lot of work after the 18th of September. The reason why we are doing all this is it has already incurred a lot of work for ourselves for over a year now – lately we have a project team of about twenty people and endless suppliers involved all making sure that this is a seamless enterprise at least from a technical point of view. So one month before, we want to make sure that people understand how [the changeover] will function so we don’t get any overload in customer care with questions that are basically crystal clear if we explain them over time. The other aspect here is that we are trying to make people aware that they really need to do something. This means that [customers] have to change in their mobiles the codes from 03 to 71. Once it is done it will not happen again, so it’s a one-off. The final issue I want to mention is that people will most probably have to print new business cards and stationary, so the public cost is so big that we found it necessary to inform people well beforehand.

Executive: Is there a number now for how much the switchover may cost consumers?

IB: There is no estimation of the cost… Although there is international benchmarking, it is very dependent on the local situation because, for example, printing costs are a lot lower here than in Europe… definitely though [the cost to consumers] will be in the millions.

Executive: Is one month of publicity really enough time? Why didn’t alfa start earlier?

IB: Well the MoT is the owner. Of course, the mobile operators are the first ones involved in this project. We are very willing to do whatever is necessary to inform the public, but you have to recognize that in May, for example, there were other items on the agenda, the elections. So the changeover was not the top priority, and I think people have to understand. It is quieter now though so I think people will understand.

Executive: Why was this step necessary in the first place?

IB: The fixed line network uses 01 and 02 and then all of a sudden 03 is mobile and then you have 04 and 05 etc [local numbers]. So to have a numbering plan in place, the MoT decided that this needed to be harmonized. The first step was that they restudied the fixed line network so you have to dial an area code and then the number. Now, 03 will be put aside and used later in the fixed line network. The other reason was that, at the moment, [the MoT] had to introduce a new number block for one million new numbers… So we released 70 [in June] which you now have and you will have 71 and if the market ever grows to 100% [penetration] you might have 72.

Executive: What is your biggest concern about the switchover?

IB: Well it is not a big concern, but there will be some outages in some systems because they have to migrate. This is just a fact of life that we have to do. One of the things that will be affected is the Intelligent Network for prepaid subscribers. In any event, we are now determining with suppliers at which hour we will be doing something, and we will send out this schedule to customers. My expectation is this will be a very small issue. And we will compensate if there is some loss.

Executive: Is the introduction of new numbers –the 70 prefix – helping to bring down Lebanon’s notoriously high mobile rates?

IB: The MoT decides on the prices, not us. After 14 months here, I have said this a million times: it is not us. Each and every new service or tariff change we need to ask approval. We do have the expertise in house to act as a consultant to the government to say ‘if you lower the prices by XYZ then we can predict to you the following customer take up.

Executive: You can show them this. Have you shown them?

IB: Sure….but you have to look at the other side of the coin, which means what is the investment per subscriber and how can I recoup that investment. You have to study your addressable markets, then you have to see what the revenue stream is for the government… all while investing for these additional customers. So these calculations are not on the back of an envelope. You can say, for example, ok we estimate the market growth at 30%, which means for the government that the investment will be so much. And that investment needs to paid from the revenue stream which, at the moment, goes straight to the state budget.

Executive: So even if the government wanted to drop mobile prices tomorrow and expand the customer base, the network itself is just not ready for this?

IB: First of all this network is old, so the first calculations that you have to do is to see how you have to replace network elements – we have to replace quite a bit of the network, for the existing customer. Second, you have to look at services you want to offer to your current customer base. If we want to go to the 2.5 generation G – the EDGE technology – at the moment a lot of the network cannot support it. Then, the third thing is that we want to have a bigger uptake of new customers so we would need to build out to cater to this [lower level] market segment…. My top priority is the replacement of network elements, while doing this we can also add capacity itself.

Executive: It has been more than a year since Alfa came to Lebanon, how has business been thus far?

IB: The first year after the take-over has been a challenging time starting with the ramping up of the number of personnel. As you might remember, we lost 57% of the employees when we arrived and had to start recruiting at great speed, then of course, all recruits had to be trained on the job, which was and is a great task and achievement for everyone involved. Then, there was the rebranding from Cellis to alfa which involved over 50 people. That said, from a management and operational point of view, I’m quite happy. We have increased subscribers by 15% and also increased our roaming partners by 13%. Now, what we urgently need is investment in replacing equipment and expanding the network, as I said, to cater to the continuous growth of subscribers. Also, alfa wants to take the next step in launching more data services, again, a project that needs time and substantial money but will support the development of the economy. To a certain extent, I compare Lebanon to the Netherlands where I’m from: both are trading companies really… and traders need the newest business tools to make sure they are on the cutting edge.

September 9, 2005 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Guaranteed Returns

by Faysal Badran September 1, 2005
written by Faysal Badran

Investors with a lower risk appetite or a shorter investment time horizon generally prefer to seek out an investment arrangement that provides a degree of certainty over capital, while seeking returns related to the performance of some of the world’s stock markets. Capital protected funds, also called guaranteed funds, are created to fill this need and have been offered at various times by Lebanon’s leading banks. A typical capital protected fund will promise to return at least 95%, and often 100% of an investor’s capital, while also paying out any gain on the given stock index during the fund’s life, normally between three and seven years. You hear it all the time: “The sort of investment I’d like is high yield, low risk, and completely liquid.” I’d like that too. Everyone would like that. In a perfect world. But in this world, that’s not how it works at all. The higher the yield you want, the more risk you have to take. Which means the more chance you have of losing money. And perhaps the only way of moderating this equation is to lock up your money for a longish period of time. So, no liquidity.

Hedge funds anyone?

How about something that has a record of around 20% per year, guarantees you all your money back after five or six years no matter what happens, and allows you to get out whenever you want. Does this come close to that perfect world?

Well, reasonably close. High yield: probably, but not certainly. Low risk: absolutely. Completely liquid: nearly. This is the new breed of capital guaranteed hedge funds. How do they work? Well, let’s say you have a sum, say a minimum of $25,000 (ok, it’s not a perfect world because that’s on average what you need to start with) and you want it to grow over the medium term.

A large chunk of this money the fund managers will put into something absolutely secure, that will grow to your original amount after the agreed investment period, in most cases a highly rated zero coupon bond, which is issued at a deep discount and is redeemed at par. A major bank guarantees this amount with at least two AAs in their risk rating. If the investment bombs badly, you will get all your principal back at the end of the investment term, guaranteed. The chances of a bank like that failing in the interim? About the same as Western civilization being annihilated by an asteroid, a new version of bubonic plague or a nuclear winter. Then again, with the degree of involvement of large financial companies in high risk these days … who knows? Anyway, that’s the capital guaranteed part. You get the return of your principal. Now, what about the return on your principal? How does that work?

Well, the company that runs the fund does not directly manage your money itself. It selects a number of hedge funds and managed futures houses and …

“Wait, wait, wait!” you scream. “Aren’t they risky?”

Yes, they can be, when they don’t tell anyone what they’re doing. But the only hedge funds and managed futures houses that will be selected by a capital company are those that state their trading discipline and allow the company to run their track record through their risk control system.

In other words they will only deal with hedge funds and managed futures houses that are not loose cannons. They choose a number of these, typically at least four and less than ten, and give them each a percentage of their pooled investment sum, a bit of your money included (you can’t get into any of these funds yourself for less than $1 million), which the hedge fund or managed futures house invests according to their stated trading rules.

How does this help? Well, three ways. Firstly, if a fund forgets about its trading rules or simply performs badly, the fund company can dismiss them, re-adjusting the weightings of the other funds, or straight out replace them. Secondly, each particular hedge fund or managed futures house is a specialist in a particular kind of trading or a particular sector. Between them, they cover a wide range, but without diluting expertise. Thirdly, because they are all doing different things, their monthly performance does not correlate strongly with each other. Which means the volatility of the overall performance is low.

The Sharpe ratio

Low volatility is good. It equates with low risk. In investing, a gentle, undulating hill walk is better than shimmying up and abseiling down saw-toothed peaks.

A measure of the quality of return is the Sharpe ratio. Divide: (the return minus the return you would have got in the risk-free interest of a T-bill) by (the standard deviation of the volatility). World stocks are currently at about 0.9. World bonds are currently about 0.7. Capital protected high yield low volatility investments typically have a Sharpe ratio in the area of 1.5 to 2.9. Which means more return for less risk.

How much return? Capital guaranteed hedge funds are closed-end funds. The guarantor has to know how much they’re guaranteeing. The capital protected high yield low volatility investment has a subscription period, which closes. From then on, no-one else can join. The thing continues for its stated period, normally five or six years. Then at the end it pays out the initial capital plus accumulated gains.

Each capital guaranteed hedge fund is therefore a one-off. Eight or nine of them come along a year. But they don’t have a track record until they’ve actually started. Which means you can’t ask what the performance is with a view to getting in. Once they have a performance, you can’t get in.

What you can do, however, is look at the pro-forma back testing. Each of the hedge funds or managed futures has its track record. The way they trade is the way they trade: being part of a capital guaranteed hedge funds/low volatility investment does not alter it. Therefore it is perfectly valid to look at the prior performance of the hedge funds and managed futures chosen by a capital guaranteed hedge funds/low volatility investment in their particular percentage combination and see how they have done collectively in the past. And typically these are in the area of 20%. Some are over 30% per annum. Personally, I wouldn’t mind if one I have only did 12%; I know my money would double in six years.

What about the trading? Well, people have since 1995, been getting used to stock market returns of 20% a year, and mutual funds that go up and up. This, however, is a very rare phenomenon, unparalleled since, well … 1924 to 1929. The stock markets won’t go up forever, even if we’d like them to. The alternative to stocks is bonds or cash. But bond prices can go down too, and cash performs about as spectacularly as a guinea-pig. If you buy stocks, you are long in the market. Performance is defined in upwardness; if stocks go up, you gain, but if they go down, you lose money. Mutual funds are long, geared to markets going up. In fact, they are not allowed to go to cash (except a few percent). In a real bear market, they are waiting to be slaughtered – all they can do is choose the stocks that will perform least badly.

Getting out in emergencies

Hedge funds, on the other hand, are allowed to be short on the market if that’s what they feel is warranted. This means they can sell stocks or stock indexes short and gain as markets fall. Participating in a hedge fund gives you insurance in the time of the bear.

Normally, however, they are not making one-way bets. They are doing things like using their expertise to exploit mergers and takeovers, or finding distressed companies that will see better times. Or, they are finding pairs of companies that do exactly the same thing in the same country, working out which is the better bet, buying shares in it and selling short an equal value of shares in the other company – this way it doesn’t matter whether the market goes up, or whether the market goes down, as long as the preferred company outperforms the other. There are in fact many, many strategies; the point is that they are more sophisticated than being straight and long the market, and enacted by specialists. And it’s not just stocks: managed futures houses work in commodities, metals, energy and currencies.

What you are doing by going into a capital guaranteed hedge funds/low volatility investment is buying a basket of such funds for a fixed period. It’s a way of investing that is suitable for any set of conditions in the market, an all-terrain vehicle rather than a temperamental sports car that needs a clear track.

Liquidity and charges? There are low front end charges, typically 2% to 3%. Performance above is expressed net of management fees. There may be a one year period of lock-in, or no lock-in. There is a decreasing back-end fee, a maximum of 4% in the first year, if you get out early. For most, after the first year you can get out free, or for 1% to 2%. When you get out, you will get your capital plus the gain in the fund if there has been a gain. If there’s a loss, the full capital guarantee is only extended at the end of the agreed term. But then, how many investments apart from guinea pigs and T-bills have a guarantee written under them?

Choosing the right fund

These funds are one-offs. Once they’re closed, they’re closed, so there’s little point naming particular ones. Each deserves careful scrutiny (some are better than others). A good financial adviser will be able to let you know his or her current recommendations. But bear in mind that the explosion in the number of hedge funds, which now are approaching 8000 worldwide has meant that their quality and returns have suffered, due to roguish traders setting up very aggressive structures, and this means hedge funds are not what they used to be. Also, with global markets so closely correlated, commodities, currencies, bonds and stocks have at this juncture huge risks embedded in them. But if your time horizon allows, and you have some risk capital available, then capital guaranteed hedge funds can smooth your overall portfolio returns.
 

September 1, 2005 0 comments
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Business

Software success story

by Thomas Schellen September 1, 2005
written by Thomas Schellen

Lebanon-based information technology firm Software Design Consulting Group (SDCG) is a rare success story in the country’s landscape of IT developers and implementers with a combined domestic and regional approach. Bucking trends of decline suffered by the Lebanese IT industry, in 2004 the firm realized a 16% growth of business and is rallying even stronger this year, projecting a near 50% increase in results based on its performance from January to mid-August. The company’s field of activity is software development and the implementation of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solutions for corporate customers at the upper end of the small and medium enterprise market. ERP is an umbrella term for software that assists businesses in optimizing the integrative management of all facets of their activities, including planning, manufacturing, sales and marketing. Within SDCG’s concentration in this market, its core products are an accountancy and inventory system dubbed Dolphin and a modular ERP package, Visual Dolphin, a particularly successful specialized variant of which is tailored for the advertising industry.

Setting up in Saudi

A large contribution to SDCG’s recent growth came from the development of its business in Saudi Arabia, said founder and general manager, Michel Nseir. “Starting from early last year, we focused and put a lot of emphasis on Saudi Arabia, and in less than one year, our sales in Saudi Arabia could reach 70% of what we turn over in the Lebanese market today. We estimate that by 2006, our revenues from the Saudi market will be twice those of the Lebanese market. We have very high hopes in the Saudi market and the results are very positive.”

Lebanon, where SDCG started 20 years ago with Nseir taking up programming for local companies, last year accounted for about 55% of the firm’s sales, according to SDCG data. Since the company ventured into regional markets in the mid-nineties, exports were an existential part of its growth and jumped from about 20% in 2001 to nearly 40% in 2002. The leap in the export share was fueled by good sales in the Gulf region but was also in part attributable to an 18% contraction in SDCG’s business in the difficult Lebanese market in 2002. Nseir, who has for years been very outspoken in addressing IT industry issues as a board member of Lebanon’s Professional Computer Association, leaves no doubts in his critical assessment of the operating conditions for IT companies here. “I am seeing a very black picture for Lebanon in this sector, and even for the near future, I do not see any hope regarding the development of this technology at the level of software development, at the level of the IT consumer, or at the level of communication,” he said.

In the IT entrepreneur’s perception, the present situation represents a marked downturn from vibrant days in the 1990s. Until about four years ago, people in the Lebanese business community typically were enthusiastic and companies were forward looking and ambitious in acquiring the best and most futuristic products, Nseir said, but enthusiasm for IT in the business community has waned and been replaced by an attitude of making do with what one has. What makes the situation extra hard to bear for Nseir is that Lebanon’s information and communications technology adaptation a decade ago had been ahead of other countries in the area. As other countries began catching up in the late 1990s, competition toughened between Lebanon, Jordan and Gulf countries from around 2000 as far as implementing IT and attracting IT enterprises. But today, Lebanon is lagging behind many other Middle Eastern countries in most aspects of IT, such as computer and internet usage and all aspects of communications technology. The Gulf catches up

“Lebanon didn’t evolve while in the Gulf, things progressed much faster. That affects our market in software development in Lebanon,” Nseir lamented. “We feel not just a slowdown. The budgets have shrunk to an extreme and so has the customer awareness. Companies have other priorities today. Regarding telecommunications, people have become fed up and we are going backwards while other countries are going forward. That is really bad.” Conversely to its gloomy assessment of Lebanon’s IT evolution, SDCG nonetheless maintained a strong emphasis on serving the Lebanese market, treating it as a testing ground for its products before exporting them. This includes offering products and implementation to local customers at promotional prices. The SDCG commitment to its domestic customers has resulted in a gradual resurgence of its sales here over the past three years to a market position that is today “doubly good,” Nseir said. “That is on one hand because we are achieving normal growth and on the other because the competition is no longer as efficient as before. It is losing ground and disappearing slowly.”

As he tells the story, the ranks of local software firms that SDCG used to compete with in Lebanon have contracted from more than 20 companies in 2002, to no more than five serious contenders today. This is in addition to foreign companies that remain present in the market. The latter, however, are priced in another league than local firms and their marketing interests are directed primarily towards winning the larger tenders for IT solutions, a market segment where little has been happening in recent years. Despite having devised special prices for the Lebanese market, SDCG’s Dolphin and Virtual Dolphin suites were continually higher priced than products of the local competition, Nseir said, attributing his company’s strengthened position in the home market to the fact that mid-sized corporate customers here had no alternative to choosing SDCG due to the fact that they needed a supplier and service provider that was reliable over the long term and thus could not be sure of other software developers and implementers in that respect.

SDCG claims to have a clear market leadership with a share of 30% in the Lebanese market for ERP products, up from 18 % some years ago. In its specialized segment, the high end of the mid-sized market, the company declares to hold an absolute majority share of the market with 50%. For 2005, the company’s cash flow estimations show that it anticipates its revenue in Lebanon to increase by at least 40% and grow far beyond the levels it achieved before the local IT market weakened so dramatically after mid-2001.

Lebanon’s mid-sized corporate market as Nseir defines it is comprised of firms with a turnover of between $1 million at the lower end and $30 million at the upper end. In terms of IT needs, this represents a client size of four users at the low end and 30 to 40 concurrent users in the segment that SDCG targets above all others. The company targets clients at the lower end of the mid-sized market but not the small business segment where it concedes that its basic solution packages, selling at $3,000 to $4,000, are priced above what most small businesses require. Taking it regional

From the outset of developing its exports, SDCG had been aspiring to both regional and international expansion. It opened its first office abroad in Dubai in 1998, when the emirate was just beginning to attract tech companies. Today the UAE market for IT solutions continues to be important to SDCG but while being large, booming and highly interesting on one side, Nseir characterizes it also as being marked by extremely heavy competition. One feature of this competition is that due to the UAE’s high share of foreign employees and mid-level managers in particular, market conditions in Dubai involve a cultural element. This cultural element influences purchasing decisions, where many IT buyers in companies are predisposed towards suppliers from their own cultural and national background, which somewhat limits the market for SDCG to firms with some affiliation to Lebanon, Nseir said. The answer to the challenge was to penetrate a market niche where SDCG had almost no competitor. This proved to be the development of the Visual Dolphin Advert suite tailored to the needs of advertising agencies. It is a market whose large regional players, usually subsidiaries of global advertising conglomerates, are headquartered in Dubai and centrally purchase software for their MENA networks. This is the niche that SDCG dominates. “The top six advertising agencies are our customers today. There are opportunities to sell ERP packages in Dubai, but this business would not have been enough for Software Design to thrive there without the specialized packages for advertising agencies,” Nseir said. An existential factor in the growth of SDCG was focus in concentrating on the mid-sized market, a narrow product range and a few target countries. “Focus is nothing that we learned lately, in the right meaning of the word. In our way of understanding the term, we limited the products to a few and limited the territories and focused on getting many customers from a limited number of territories rather than getting one customer in each country,” Nseir explained. Another part of the business recipe was that the firm practiced vertical integration by developing its own products and augmenting that through offering implementation and customization of its products. This helped SDCG in succeeding where less vertically integrated competitors run aground in difficult periods and according to Nseir, the firm’s revenue today arises to about 40% from the development of software, 40% from implementation, and 20% from customization. Cash flow management and an emphasis on marketing rounded off the instruments that allowed SDCG to expand in the Lebanese market under adverse conditions and confirm its presence in Gulf countries. Europe on the horizon

For the future, SDCG aspires to gain a foothold in some European markets, looking primarily at central Europe.

As the company experienced its latest surge in business growth, it increased staff from 39 at the end of last year to 55 today, and plans are for the headcount to reach 60 by end of 2005. As part of its human resources development plan, SDCG has recently also adopted a theme of training fresh graduates in search of grooming the firm’s next generation of developers. “It is actually very new for us that we are investing a lot in beginners and preparing a new generation who will be in charge of our offices in the future. Our HR strategy is to develop new skills in Lebanon and prepare [trainees] for sending them to the Gulf countries after two to three years,” Nseir said.
 

September 1, 2005 0 comments
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Business

Getting a piece of the action

by Lana Asfour September 1, 2005
written by Lana Asfour

The climate is not the only thing linking London to Beirut these days. On an unusually hot and humid August afternoon in Stockwell, broadcast service provider Ken Suckling explains the surprising portability of a large satellite dish that sits on top of a van, more technically known as a flyaway terminal. Operations manager Kate Ivens is on hand to translate Suckling’s expertise into layman’s terms, while engineer Adam Simmons has no such qualms and launches into an intricate explanation of the input, conversion and transmission process.

The Beirut Media Center (BMC) was founded by Suckling and international television journalist Brent Sadler in 2001. While based in Beirut, it is supported and partnered by Suckling’s London-based Satellite News Gathering (SNG) Broadcast Services, which provides technical support from its office and warehouse in Stockwell. The BMC provides satellite transmission and production equipment for independent and national networks and broadcasters all over Europe, the Middle East and North America, including the BBC, CNN, Sky, Deutsche Wella, Al Jazeera and Al Arabia. It has a fixed link studio in downtown Beirut. Located behind the ESCWA building, the studio offers a permanent live background of the Prime Minister’s palace, downtown Beirut and the sea. It also provides portable flyaway satellite uplink facilities, so that breaking news, and cultural, business and sporting events in the Middle East can be covered and transmitted all over the world.

Turning Beirut into a media hub

The establishment of the BMC heralds a new era in which Beirut is becoming a center for journalism and broadcasting in the Middle East. It was established in January 2001, after SNG was subcontracted by CNN to help cover the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. At the same time, then prime minister, the late Rafik Hariri, liberalized the licensing laws for broadcasting and satellite transmission in Lebanon. Sadler, reporting for CNN, got together with Suckling and formed the company. “We saw an opportunity and went with it,” said Suckling. “There were no obstacles after the initial transition period during which the liberalization laws came into effect.” The company was quickly up and running, making use of its partner SNG’s contacts, technical support and predominantly European client list.

The partnership between Sadler and Suckling works effectively. They have known each other since 1992, when Suckling was providing satellite services for CNN in Somalia. Sadler is the BMC’s chairman and a 50% shareholder. As a well known television reporter, he is very much the company’s face. Suckling, on the other hand, is the technology and business expert who has been in the news gathering business since the 1980s.

Before 2001, Cairo was, and remains, a principal regional center for broadcasting, where several international television networks and broadcasters (including CNN) base their regional headquarters. During the 1990s, Egypt had an advantage over Lebanon because there were more flights to and from the country granting easier access to the rest of the Middle East. In Lebanon there remain difficulties for broadcasters and journalists wanting to travel to Israel and the Palestinian territories. But Hariri’s liberalization of transmission regulations made an enormous difference. What also tipped the balance in Beirut’s favour was Hariri’s launching of an “open skies” policy, which ended restrictions on aircraft capacity and limitations on the frequency of flights to and from Beirut, thus permitting more frequent and easier transportation of satellite broadcasting equipment. Finally, Cairo’s licensing laws can be restrictive. It can be difficult to get transmission licences from the government, and the marketplace is inevitably controlled by this to some degree. So once Hariri’s reforms had been implemented, some movement towards Beirut was inevitable. The BMC was the first transmission services company to open up in Beirut, and was rapidly followed by Sawatel and the Beirut Broadcast Service Centre (BBSC). Television stations LBC, Future TV and Orbit also offer transmission facilities. While it is not the largest, the BMC remains one of the busiest. Its success depends on many of the same qualities that allowed SNG, out of which it was formed, to thrive. These qualities include the company’s small size, which permits immediate reaction to world events, and its highly skilled engineers for the operation and maintenance of expensive and easily damaged equipment. “It is an expensive service to provide, with high entry and maintenance costs,” said Suckling. Well-trained engineers are paramount, and the BMC can draw upon SNG’s technical back-up facilities.

While it is difficult to predict the company’s annual turnover, Suckling estimated it at US$300,000. “Because most of our revenue comes from Western clients it depends on how much interest there is in the Middle East,” he said. “We can double our turnover with a war in Afghanistan or Iraq. But we’re the first people to suffer if Western economies become tight, or if advertising revenues, which pay for air time, are reduced.” It is not that there would be less news, but the ways in which news is transmitted would suffer – there would be fewer live crosses, for instance, and more taped news. The BMC’s reputation has certainly been consolidated this year. Since Hariri’s assassination in February, the demonstrations, elections and bombings have reawakened international interest in Lebanon. For Suckling, these events have proved that the decision to create the BMC was correct: “Beirut is a sensible place to be based if you can’t function out of Cairo.” He also believes that providing transmission services permits Lebanon to have a more prominent voice on the world stage. “There’s now a studio for people to go to in Beirut and it’s easy for international broadcasters to contact and hear the opinions of local politicians, experts and analysts.”

What lies ahead

As for the future of the company, Suckling and Sadler are planning to expand the BMC’s editorial department, which was established in 2003 and has grown rapidly. The BMC’s permanent journalists, Anthony Mills and Christina Foerch, complement the company’s transmission services, and use the downtown studio and production facilities to transmit their stories. This journalism department is building a solid reputation for providing a European view on regional events. Mills and Foerch are fluent in English, French and German and present stories to Deutsche Wella, ZDV, Arte, Sky, CNN and Al-Arabia, among other stations. “Our experiment with the journalists has been a success and we are looking to expand the journalistic side regionally,” Suckling said. He believes that Beirut will continue to operate as a centre for news gathering in the region. However, he wishes the company to remain small which, up to now, has proved to be a winning formula. “We don’t want to apply ourselves to a vast number of clients,” he said. “We have a core of quality clients and we provide a good service to them.”
 

September 1, 2005 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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