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Economics & Policy

All pumped up

by Faysal Badran September 1, 2005
written by Faysal Badran

Back in April 2004, we discussed oil in these pages, making the judgment that at nearly $50 per barrel, oil was getting into treacherously elevated price territory. The frenzy that ensued carried prices well beyond that to what they stand at above $65 per barrel today. The world financial media has been mesmerized by the price of oil, especially since oil is so closely correlated to politics in the region. Economic pundits have been going out on a limb in making spectacular estimates for what is likely to happen to the world economy due to oil, and others, like investment house Goldman Sachs, predicts oil reaching $100 a barrel. What eventually happens to crude oil is obviously tough to predict, but there are certain signs that point to a top in the price of oil fairly soon. While the developed world grapples with the effects of oil, one thing is certain, the stratospheric rise of oil from near $10 a barrel in 1998 to where it is now has had a huge impact on the region. The Arabian Gulf economies, still reeling from the 1991 Gulf War were able to replenish their coffers and a boom of sorts is developing in a large part thanks directly to oil. To get a feel for the windfall, one simply needs to reckon that Saudi Arabia’s budgets had an embedded oil price assumption closer to $30. With oil nearly double that, they have witnessed a massive liquidity-driven inflation in asset prices, from real estate to equities, and a rise in its natural corollary, public spending. In a sense, the rise in oil, in my opinion has served to neutralize social tensions and economic imbalances in the Gulf. Think of it as petrol peace. In Europe and the US, although oil has had a negative impact on consumer sentiment, it has not translated into doom, as oil, adjusted for inflation is still nearly 30% below its historic peaks.

That is the rear view picture of what oil has done. For a closer look on what’s to come, I think one has to view oil from the perspective of yet another bubble. We have a bubble in housing, a bubble in most commodities, and a lingering stock bubble. Add crude oil to the list, here’s why.

Going up

Controversial Texas oil analyst Matt Simmons recently announced that oil could very well reach $100 a barrel. He is quoted as saying: “We could be at $100 by this winter. We have the biggest risk we have ever had of demand exceeding supply. We are now just about to face up to the biggest crisis we have ever had.” When looking for a bubble always watch out for superlatives such as “ever.” But before scenes from the movie Mad Max start permeating your every waking thought, and before you run out to the garage to make sure grandpa’s shotgun is still there, take a deep breath. The really amazing thing is that no one seems to have learnt the lessons from the previous bubble, but rather appear to be jumping in to the current phenomena, hoping to make back the losses they incurred from the previous one. Perhaps they believe the old axioms ‘lightning never strikes twice’ and, ‘this time it is for real.’ One reason why bubbles form is that many good arguments can be made for ‘why this time things are different.’ Generally speaking, as a whole, the public is not crazy. The media sells people on the best or worst case scenarios. For the last 70 or more years, people have heard reports from so-called specialists about how there is only so much oil in the world and eventually it has to run out. Yet if you look at the predictions the specialists have made about when the last drop of oil will be pumped out of the ground, you notice that every couple of years the date gets extended out a few more years. Technology has always provided man with the solutions to his self-created problems. And technology will continue to do so. Better refining techniques, offshore drilling, etc. have all been designed to overcome oil supply problems. Certainly oil can still run up a little more, making it more tempting with each advance to want to get in on all the fun. That is the hook. Besides, it takes a long time for all really big fools of the ‘greater fool theory’ to hop on the trend. Keep in mind that crude oil rose 16% in the first three weeks of August alone. At $3, $3.25 or $4 a gallon, people will cut back.

Waiting to exhale

All the cutting back of petroleum use will result in an increase supply of gasoline, which will have the direct result of lower prices at the pump. The laws of supply and demand may be slow; however, Alfred Marshall’s microeconomic laws do work well. Simply speaking, if it gets too expensive, people won’t buy it. When no one buys a vendor’s product, the vendor must reduce prices in order to get rid of his inventory. Besides, if that doesn’t work, the US can always start a war in the Gulf to fix the problem. Don’t get sucked in to this black bubble. The money will be made on the downside, not the upside. For those of you technically inclined, note how for the last three years, the futures contracts had stayed at a discount to the spot market until recently. As of early August, it seems everyone expects oil to keep flying and the forward contracts have gone a premium to the spot. To the chartist in me, oil looks very risky at its current levels and it seems to have discounted a lot of possible doom scenarios (Iran being one of them). Predictions? Oil will likely hit $45 a barrel before you see it at $75 (let alone Goldman Sachs’ $100).
 

September 1, 2005 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Ottoman chic

by Marianne Stigset September 1, 2005
written by Marianne Stigset

Lebanon’s architectural heritage has had a rough 50 years. Ever since the economic boom of the 1950s, which spurred real estate growth, launching the era of concrete modern high-rises at the expense of turn-of-the-century old buildings, the latter have been dwindling. Those that withstood the civil war were subsequently threatened with demolishment, as owners without the financial means to restore them, realized they could make more profit selling them to real estate developers who would build modern apartment blocks. Activists did mobilize in the mid-1990s with the Association for Protecting Natural Sites and Old Buildings in Lebanon at their helm, drawing up a list of over 1,000 classified houses (Solidere managed to save 290 buildings from the pre-war era). Yet today “old” buildings represent a mere 2.5% of the real estate market. “In the mind of the Lebanese, any old building could be torn down and resurrected into a block of flats,” real estate consultant Michael Dunn, chairman of Michael Dunn & Co, said. “Everything has a financial value rather than an aesthetic value.”

Perpetuating the craze for modern real estate are the luxury high-rises mushrooming along the capital’s seafront, which for wealthy real estate buyers, be they Lebanese or from the Gulf, have become the investment of choice.

“Villas in the mountains are somewhat passé here,” said Dunn. “The current trend is to put your money downtown and buy a $5 million, 800m2 apartment in Marina Tower.”

Alternative urban trends

Yet on the sidelines, another trend has been burgeoning for the last few years. It is one which has transformed Gemaizeh from a gritty, genteel, lower-middle class area, into a hip and upscale one, much in the same way gentrification metamorphosed the meatpacking district in New York or the industrial area of Shoreditch in East London. The trend is driven by demand for more authentic, less commercialized and more affordable properties. “It is a process of gentrification,” said architect and AUB professor Rana Samara Jubayli. “The trend usually starts among the up and coming artists and students, who get there first, make the areas trendy, and then the rest of the population tends to follow, and this affects the market. Gemaizeh is a prime example of this. It is very much ‘in’ now.” Although the initial interest in old houses stemmed in part from those on tight budgets seeking lower rents, this has gradually evolved into the trademark of an upscale, fashionable lifestyle. “As in the rest of the world, you will have yuppies and young professionals looking for these types of residences,” Jubayli said. “They wish to live downtown, close to work, the commercial areas and where the nightlife is. It’s a lifestyle choice, a design requirement, more than a question of affordability. It’s a statement.” These new aficionados join a core group of faithful followers, who have long shown a preference for arched windows, high ceilings, mosaic floors and iron railings. They are mainly eccentric Lebanese aesthetes and Western expatriates. “The Europeans adore these types of houses. They understand the value of cultural heritage,” said real estate developer and entrepreneur Karim Bassil.

Emotional ties to the land

While Europeans rarely purchase property while living in Lebanon, and the young Lebanese moving into areas characterized by their preserved architectural heritage generally can’t afford to, Lebanese expatriates on the other hand, are increasingly investing money into old property.

“There’s a second trend happening at the non-urban level which is clientele driven – it’s people renovating their old family houses,” Jubayli noted. “I have been commissioned to restore traditional old Lebanese houses in Beit Mery and Marjeyoun for instance. “A lot of these people are either expatriates or people who are coming back and they actually attach more value to these houses because of the emotional or cultural connotations it has to them. They also have the finances to restore them properly, whereas the local population generally has lost the sense of value of these houses, due to financial restrictions. Conservation issues are not really a priority when you don’t have food on the table.” The majority of the old houses available on the market are found outside the greater Beirut area, either in the mountains or in the south. Those who buy generally hire an architect or an interior designer to renovate them.

The stunning old summer residence of the British ambassador in Abay was sold last December for an estimated $700,000 to a Lebanese doctor living in Beirut who will use it as a secondary home. He intends to invest in renovating it, installing central heating, air conditioning and other modern amenities.

Unlike in Europe and the United States, there are few developers who will speculate in buying, restoring and reselling what they hope will be seen as a jewel. This is partly due to the fact that renovation is fraught with financial and administrate pitfalls. Furthermore, the choice in the style of renovation remains highly individualized. Developers prefer not to second-guess the taste of the potential buyer and instead wait until a property is bought so they can work alongside the buyer restoring to his tastes and without burdening themselves with owning the property and then trying to unload it on a fickle market.

A restricted and exclusive market

Good properties are at a premium. Adding to the scarcity is the fact that most of the old buildings that are left are frozen out of the real estate market either due to inheritance issues or old tenants. The latter, benefiting from the antiquated rental laws which lock in rates, have little incentive to move out of a residence on which they pay the same rent today as what was agreed upon five decades ago. “It’s a very small market – there are very few buildings left to develop,” Bassil said. “Most of them at this point are in the mountains, like in Deir el-Qamar and Douma. Their scarcity is pushing the prices up further. The few houses that are put on the market are usually sold at very high prices and they tend to have a lot of problems.” The expensive renovation work which follows the purchase of an old residence contributes to the further squeezing out of a sizeable chunk of real estate buyers. “If you buy an old house on two floors of some 500m2, which usually will cost you about $500,000, you are looking at a minimum of $75,000 to $100,000 in additional restoration costs,” said Dunn. “Buying a house and restoring it is much more expensive than starting from scratch or buying a modern one,” Bassil added. “If you want to restore it so as to live comfortably in it, the overall price generally increases by 30% to 40%. In general terms, the cost of restoration lies in the $700 to $800/m2 realm, or $400 to $500/m2 if you keep it very basic. I just restored an old house in Dbayye for an emir, who wanted maximum comfort, that came to $1,200/m2.” “Many of these houses are not structurally sound, so you may have to do a structural re-enforcement, which is a huge financial burden,” Jubayli said. “Once that has been taken care of, you go into the architectural finishes. Are you going to keep the special integrity of the place? The finishes are directly related to the intentions people have for the building and the financing they are willing to put into it. You re-do the tiles, you re-do the bathrooms, you may put in a kitchen. It really varies.” Adding to the financial burden is the difficulty in setting a fixed budget for the renovation. “You can’t really budget for restoration,” said Jubayli. “There are so many surprises that come up along the way, so many hidden expenses that a lot of compromises need to be done.” If the client chooses to engage in restoration or reconstruction proper, finding the right material and workmanship adds another challenge to the process, and can easily bump up the final renovation bill by some 50%. Jubayli describes how for the renovation of a 600m2 house in Marjeyoun, the cost of which came up to $100,000, most of the material had to be sent down from Beirut and a 90-year-old tiler had to be brought in – the only person available who still had the know-how to adequately restore the old tiles.

If the client chooses to change the spatial partitioning of the house, or make any additions to it, he must apply for a restoration permit. This step can easily bring the renovation process to a lengthy standstill. One architect living in an old Gemaizeh villa is still waiting for the local municipality to grant him a permit to construct two bathrooms in his house, one year after he applied for it.

A niche for developers

Nonetheless, if the market for selling old houses remains a client-driven and restricted one, there is a niche for developing the rental market in old houses and buildings. The concept is not a new one – the Sursock Cochrane family has been making a substantial profit renting out old apartments in Gemaizeh for over three decades. But new developers are slowly moving in.

Bassil features among the successful ones. With his project management company Bassil Real Estate Investment, he is investing in renovating old buildings in the Gemaizeh area, as well as building new ones, in accordance with the local architectural style.

“I buy old buildings and restore them – I would never tear down an old building,” he said. “When I build modern ones, it is always from scratch, on empty land. In areas such as Gemaizeh, I respect the local architecture by never constructing buildings taller than five floors for instance. Instead of building 16,000m2, I am building 8,000m2 buildings.” Among his five ongoing and completed projects is a rehabilitated turn of the century house, which has been made into four apartment rentals. According to the developer, his apartments are going like hotcakes, at rather handsome prices – a 200m2 apartment will be rented out for around $2000 to $3000 per month. And as the neighborhood’s unique architectural character is preserved, it increases its overall value, bearing promises of even greater returns in the future.

“It’s more profitable to restore a building and start renting it out already within a year, rather than demolish it,” said Bassil. “Lady Cochrane is the perfect example of how it should be done. It is thanks to her that Gemaizeh is what it is today – she succeeded in preserving its identity, its charm, by not demolishing any of the buildings she owns and rents out. With the preservation of the cultural heritage of the area as a whole, it becomes more profitable – rents keep increasing.”
 

September 1, 2005 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Lebanon and syria which needs the other more?

by Andrew Tabler September 1, 2005
written by Andrew Tabler

As the border crisis between Lebanon and Syria unfolded over the last two months, the bars of Beirut and the family restaurants of the Old City of Damascus were host to boisterous and often heated conversations on how it was time for each country to “go it alone.” The fallout from the late prime minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination continues and nationalist sentiments are slowly eroding into the economic bedrock that has linked these two countries for centuries. As tensions are likely to continue for the foreseeable future, especially given the impending release of the findings of the UN investigation into Hariri’s death this month, taking a closer look at what each side needs economically from the other is an important first step in understanding the options each country has at its disposal in weathering whatever crises might lie ahead.

Trade

In the first half of 2005, Lebanese exports to Syria totaled $105.7 million, representing 12% of all its exports. Imports of Syrian goods over the same period totaled $90.6 million, representing a mere 2% of all Lebanese imports and 2.6% of overall Syrian exports. Overall, Lebanon relies on Syria for oil products (43%), Mutton (15%), phosphates (8%), fruit and vegetables (6.4%), legumes (3.2%), milk and dairy (3%) and iron products (2.9%). Syria, in turn, relies on Lebanon for paper products (14%), cement (13%), aluminum (6%), marble (5%), sugar (3.2%), juice and water (3%), and alcohol (1.2%).

If economic relations were severed tomorrow, each side could go it alone in terms of import sourcing. However, this would lead to an increase in prices on both sides. Syrian oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports to Lebanon are extremely competitive, due to low transport costs and Lebanon’s ability to tap into Syria’s subsidized prices on some products. Lebanon’s paper industry, for example, is one of the region’s best, and sourcing paper products elsewhere from Turkey and Egypt would likely lead to high prices on the Syrian market.

The economic fallout of severing ties would impact not only Syria’s state-owned energy sector, as many Lebanese have speculated, but also Syria’s rapidly growing private sector, which accounts for around 65% of Syrian exports to Lebanon. To offset the losses of a Lebanese boycott, Syrian producers could find larger alternative markets in Turkey, with which Syria has just concluded a free-trade agreement. But as this agreement is phased in over a number of years, while customs on most products between Lebanon and Syria have been abolished, the reorientation of Syrian exports currently going to Lebanon would not be an easy process.

For Lebanon, the impact would be substantial, as Syria was its third largest export market in 2004 (after Iraq and Switzerland), totaling, according to Lebanese customs, some $145 million. Reorienting Lebanese exports would likely be problematic, due to the country’s higher relative production prices that are the result of the Lebanese lira’s current peg to the US dollar and the higher overall skill levels of Lebanese. Currently, Lebanese products are competitive on the Syrian market by virtue of the customs free environment between the two countries, as well as low transport costs. Just how fast exports to Syria could be made up for in the Arab Gulf in the face of stiffer competition from global producers is hard to determine.

Getting to market: Transit

In many ways, the fact that Damascus chose to heighten its “security” restrictions on the Lebanese frontier at the same time that the new “anti-Syrian” government in Beirut was taking shape should not have come as a surprise. It is in the transit of goods that the Lebanese-Syrian economic relationship takes on a much different and largely geographic dimension. With a border to the north and east with Syria, and a southern border with Israel that has been closed since 1948 (except during periods of Israeli occupation), and western coastline facing the Mediterranean, Lebanon is completely dependent on Syria for getting its goods to market overland. Coming to grips with Lebanon’s overland transit issue involves a good deal of crunching of numbers from both Lebanese and Syrian sources. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Economy, overall Lebanese exports (including services) totaled $2.5 billion in 2004. In terms of general trade (i.e. material goods excluding services and tourism) exports, Lebanese customs figures total some $1.747 billion. Of Lebanon’s top 16 export markets, 10 are in the Middle East ($1.339 billion), including Iraq ($255.5 million), Syria ($145.2 million), UAE ($135.3 million), Turkey ($127.3 million), Saudi Arabia ($112.8 million), Kuwait ($67.4 million), Jordan ($62.8 million), Egypt ($39.5 million), Qatar ($30.3 million) and Iran ($21 million).

Just how much of those goods traverse Syria? According to the Syrian Central Bureau of Statistics (which breaks down transit trade by country of origin and country of destination), Lebanese transit trade through Syria in 2004 totaled around $702 million, with $347 million going to the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Jordan, and $355 million going to “other countries,” including Iraq and Iran. Combining Lebanese figures on exports to Syria ($145.2 million) with Syrian figures on transit trade of Lebanese origin ($702 million) means that around $847 million (around 49%) of all Lebanese general trade (and 33% of overall trade) in 2004 involved goods crossing the Syrian frontier. Another interesting development has come in the area of transit of goods through Lebanon. According to Lebanese customs figures (which are not broken down by country of origin or country of destination, making it difficult to determine directions in the flow of trade), transit of goods totaled a record $355 million in 2004, up from a mere $69 million in 2001 and $185 million in 2003. The reason? Given that transit trade quadrupled starting in July 2003, it seems safe to assume that Lebanese shippers have tapped securely into supplying US-occupied Iraq. In the first six months of 2005, transit totaled around $113 million.

Sanctions busting and smuggling

Figures on “informal” trade between Lebanon and Syria are difficult to come by, with estimates ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars per year. According to Syrian law, its importers are required to directly import goods from their country of origin using Syrian air and sea ports. The only exception to this rule exercised by Damascus concerns the current US export ban (all goods with 10% US content other than food and medicine) on Syria. Syrian companies seeking US components are then allowed to purchase these goods in other markets. According to Syrian businessmen, Lebanon and Dubai rank as the top two sources for the “re-export” of US goods to Syria, given each country’s higher standards of living and sophisticated markets. While the range of re-exported goods to Syria is as wide as whatever is on offer in the re-export market, Syrian businessmen say they rely on Lebanon largely for high-tech components vital to computers and networking.

Until very recently, goods carried by Lebanese and Syrians across the frontier for “personal” use were substantial. Syria’s military and security presence in Lebanon had one very powerful ancillary benefit: customs procedures on both sides of the border were extremely lax. Furthermore, after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad came to power, historically tight customs procedures were relaxed, leading at first to the construction of several “superstores” in Chtaura where Syrians heading home could stop and purchase anything from food to high tech goods. Business was so brisk over the last few years that Assad’s cousin, Rami Makhlouf, constructed a massive Duty Free in the neutral zone going into Syria, complete with a supermarket, electronic shop, pharmacy, and even a Dunkin Donuts. The Duty Free facility was constructed on the inbound side of the road to Damascus, flying in the face of Duty Free procedures throughout the world that aim at passengers exiting the country.

Exactly how much this trade was worth is unknown, but it was systematic enough that shopkeepers in Damascus openly admitted being supplied with various goods that officially fall under Syria’s import restriction list. This process has become more difficult, however, as shortly after security procedures tightened on the Syrian frontier, Syrian customs reverted back to its old, pre-Bashar self. Today, passengers crossing to Syria are having difficulty even bringing in bottles of Lebanese wine or in some cases water. And many consumer goods previously available in Syrian shops have disappeared.

So in terms of overall informal trade, Syria is much more dependent on Lebanon’s free market for sourcing the goods that are fueling Syria’s growing appetite for globalized products. Import regulations have changed, however, and now products such as Coca Cola, Pepsi and even KFC are available in Damascus via Syrian suppliers and the recent restrictions on the Lebanese border could be the first step towards cutting off Lebanon’s traditional role as Syria’s consumer window to the outside world.

Labor

The issue of Syrian labor in Lebanon has been discussed so many times in the Lebanese press that to go into it in depth here would not add anything new. Suffice to say, Lebanon needs cheap, low to medium skilled labor both to carry out the government’s ongoing reconstruction plans, as well as to service private sector businesses and individual homes. As Syrians live right next door, and often have Lebanese family, their availability on the Lebanese market is something that long predates Syria’s 29-year sojourn in Lebanon. Estimates of Syrian laborers in Lebanon vary between 400,000 to 1 million.

The Lebanese state has not made it easy to introduce other foreign laborers to the country, due largely to Lebanon’s lengthy and expensive residency and work permit procedures, which inclusive of insurance total some $1800 per head per year. Such fees have increased in tandem with the Lebanese state’s desperate attempt to deal with its debt problem.

Much less attention has been paid to the role of Lebanese labor in Syria. According to the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council, some 100,000 Lebanese currently work in Syria. However, this figure is widely believed to be inflated, even by some Syrian government officials. Getting a handle on Lebanese labor in Syria faces the same difficulties in forming good estimates on Syrian labor in Lebanon, as many Lebanese and Syrian families and households overlap. This being said, the utilization of Lebanese expertise was highlighted during a recent crackdown on “illegal” Lebanese labor in Syria. Beginning in July, Syrian police showed up at the door of Syria’s new private sector banks, as well as the country’s two mobile phone companies. All non-Syrians without work papers were duly taken to the Lebanese border and “dropped off.”

According to sources in Syria’s private sector banks, Lebanese play a vital role in the training of Syrians staffing the new banks. Syrians have little experience in banking, following 40 years of a state monopoly over finance. Implementing international bank risk procedures has been a major challenge to the new banks, and deposits are piling up. Private bankers say that Lebanese are vital to training credit managers in several respects. First and foremost, risk procedures vary from bank to bank (or what is called “credit culture”), and Syrian private banks with Lebanese involvement have to learn first hand from their more experienced Lebanese counterparts just what to lend and under what circumstances. Second, of course, Lebanese have the language skills necessary to best explain the institution’s procedures.

Finance

Millions of dollars have been flowing into Syria’s private sector banks following their opening in 2003. Nevertheless, Lebanon remains Syria’s piggy bank, with estimates varying widely from the hundreds of millions into the billions of dollars in deposits. And as Lebanese institutions are involved in the vast majority of Syria’s private banking ventures, the link between Lebanese and Syrian finance seems set to remain enmeshed for the foreseeable future.

Bankers say going it alone would be disastrous to both economies. For example, Lebanese institutions known to have substantial Syrian deposits, including BLOM, BEMO, Audi, and Byblos, are heavily invested in Lebanese Treasury Bills. On the Syrian side, the regulatory environment for private banks is still restrictive, as the Syrian state tries to deal with substantial issues concerning interest rates, exchange rates, and the introduction of liquidity facilities. A majority of Syrian traders still use L/Cs from Lebanese banks to import goods. In the end, bankers says that separating the two systems – something that did not even happen during Lebanon’s civil war – would be virtually impossible.

So which neighbor needs the other more? A run down through the issues above shows that Lebanon and Syria enjoy (or suffer from) a complex, symbiotic economic relationship. In many ways, each side thrives off the weaknesses of the other – perhaps the main conceptual pillar of trade throughout the world. But unlike other countries in the region, Lebanon and Syria’s economies have substantial overlap – especially in the areas of labor and finance – which serve as the mortar keeping this complex system alive. Reform in Syria will help allow the country to stop depending on Lebanon to service basic needs – a fact that Lebanese should take to heart as they consider the implications of their country’s long-term economic future. And it is only in looking to that long-term future, and implementing reform plans to achieve set targets, that Lebanese will be able to carve out an economic independence to match their new political reality.
 

September 1, 2005 0 comments
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Special Report

A Multi-Faceted Sector

by Thomas Schellen August 25, 2005
written by Thomas Schellen

Lebanon has significant potential in the conferencing business. This area of enterprise is an often underestimated, yet versatile commercial realm with touching on education, networking, and tourism. Even though conferences and exhibitions are regarded as a very dynamic growth segment of international tourism – (commonly labeled MICE – meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions – tourism) in reality conferencing covers a wider, multidisciplinary meeting ground where academic, economic, trade, public sector, NGO, and tourism interests converge.

Because man is a relational entity who thrives through interaction, conferences have been integral to human history from before the Nicene Council while some like the Congress of Vienna that decided over the fate of post-Napoleonic Europe, have captured the attention of a whole continent. But as a regular staple of life today, conferences owe much of their intense profile and frequency to the emergence of the knowledge economy and globalization of business, which have led to proliferating demand for meetings and conventions.

In turn, conferences supply economic opportunities to a diverse group of businesses that include airlines, hotels, restaurants, tourism and entertainment companies, but also instructors, speakers, interpreters, technology providers, specialized manufacturers, and an ascending number of conference organizing firms. The world’s leading conferencing organizations have grown in recent years into service enterprises that convene thousands of events per year and the market is still far from saturated, at least in the Middle East.

The Beirut offices of Lexicon are adorned with the paraphernalia of conferencing: lined up along the wall are award plaques that may have gone unclaimed and numerous knickknacks that companies feel so free, or obliged, to distribute during such events.

Managing Partner, Near Zion, has been involved in conference organizing for about 15 years. “Middle Eastern conferencing has been booming since five years,” he says.

Lexicon is a company formed two years ago as joint venture between Zion’s firm Idea Advertising and partner firms in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The company organizes 10 to 12 regional conferences per year with a target size of 400 to 500 participants per event.

The Al Kissed Wall Alma (AIWA) Group is with some certainty the conference-organizing firm in Beirut with the highest profile for large-scale business meets. Its Arab Economic Forum, formerly the Arab Finance and Investment Conference, was this year – which was not an easy one – in its 11th edition, with over 800 participants. “We started doing conference around 1987 or 88 and launched it as formal activity in 1993. Today we organize on average 13 to 15 events per year,” says Festal About Sake, deputy general manager for the AIWA Group.

Other Lebanese enterprises stage conferences as a sideline of exhibition organizing or business services, examples being exhibitions company Promo air and services provider Beirut World Trade Center (WTC). Again other organizers are specialized in convening conferences only in very specific sectors, such as medical conferences.

As Promo air PR manager Karen Coheir told Executive, most of the company’s events are national level exhibitions. However successful at the local level, these shows do not have an easy time in seeking to draw in international exhibitor participation, and conferences play only a limited role in the context of exhibitions held in Lebanon. Promo air is working on a new exhibition and conference project with media organization Middle East Broadcasters for later in 2005, but for the moment Coheir, does “not see much potential” for the exhibitions and conferences sector in Lebanon due to the difficult circumstances of 2005 to date.

The Beirut WTC, which convened its first conference last autumn, also had to postpone large meetings planned for this year, says general manager Chadi Abou Daher, explaining that in the center’s business model, conferencing is geared towards being a support activity of topical events and business matchmaking but not a main source of revenue, which the WTC intends to draw from real estate it is developing into a business center. 

Booming Regional Business

AIWA and Exicon are among a handful of Beirut-based conference organizers with broader event spectrum and Middle Eastern scope. As they hold only a share of their events in Lebanon, they are less vulnerable to problems affecting the country; at the same time, they are working in a regional business environment where other strong contenders are Gulf-based conference organizers, mostly located in Dubai. They also face a constant influx of new competitors that enter the field each year and often also exit it again very quickly.

Zaitoun and Abou Zaki agree that the outlook for conferencing in the Middle East is bullish. Abou Zaki anticipates that the boom in the Gulf’s oil-based economies will create further increases in the number of business conventions and the sector will reach maturity in five to ten years.

A similar view comes from a leading supplier in the Gulf. IIR ME is a Dubai-based company and member of the IIR Group from the UK that orchestrates about 150 conferences per year, along with eight exhibitions and some 250 training seminars, according to senior sales manager, Owen Mills. Without agreeing to disclose information on the business growth rate and strategy of IIR ME, the Gulf region “is currently a buoyant market for conferences and exhibitions due to the substantial growth the region is experiencing and the high oil price,” Mills tells Executive.

The growing competition in the field requires conference organizers to develop specializations and niches. To carve out its market as organizer of conferences in the Middle East, Exicon has chosen a topical focus, said Zaitoun. “We take care of scientific issues presented at our conferences so that we can set ourselves apart. We don’t decide on a paper based on what it will cost us,” he says. Abstracts of papers to be brought before a conference are evaluated by a science committee and, with the exception of one speaker in the opening panel, presenters at Exicon conferences are not drawn from the ranks of conference sponsors. 

For AIWA Group, its competitive edge in entering the activity came as a natural outflow of its original enterprise as publisher of a region wide business publication, Al Iktissad Wal Aamal, and several smaller magazines. “Our expansion into conferences was leverage of our position in AIWA. We know the economy; we know what is happening. We are not into training and self-improvement conferences, we are into high-profile conferences that promote countries and industries.” 

Avenues of Profitability

Due to the links between conferences and delivery of information and knowledge, it is not uncommon for conference organizing firms to have roots in publishing or public relations. The defining characteristic for professional organizers, however, is that they are not staking their fortune on the message or content of the event as much as on the quality they achieve in organizing it. Different to educational institutions, governments and NGOs, they are in the conferencing business to make money.

Conference organizers can employ several avenues in staging events profitably but in all their business models, professional handling of the event is the alpha and omega. One route to realizing profits as professional conference organizers lies in conducting third party conferences, delivering expertise in managing the event to a client who sets the agenda and defines the target audience and is responsible for the financing and marketing of the conference. This type of service has growing demand from corporations and institutional clients who realize that their investment into a conference warrants hiring a professional organizer for the sake of maximizing the return.

However, while this detached role can bring good revenue to the conferencing firm, an organizer’s market position and reputation is built more often through proprietary events, which the firm designs and conducts. In developing a conference from scratch, the organizing company needs to master content, marketing and organization of the project. It carries the risk of investing in untested events and has to attract a business audience before it can hope to reap profits from them.

Outside of the training seminars side of the conferencing business, where participant fees are a key revenue source, most conference organizers derive their revenue predominantly from corporate involvement. Participant fees may cover basic costs for the organizers, but the “big money is from sponsors,” says Zaitoun.

Companies that sponsor a conference will have a number of direct marketing and promotion benefits, and Exicon offers sponsorship packages at a major conference that range from $20,000 to $100,000 for the exclusive top slot. If an event is successful, it may attract nine or ten sponsors in total, which provides a good result to the organizer, so Zaitoun.

According to Abou Zaki, rates for sponsorship packages at the AEF range from $30,000 to $100,000. Such amounts push the borders of what leading Lebanese corporate sponsors, such as major local banks, are willing to invest into a single business event even if a side exhibition is included. However, in Gulf markets, deals are tending higher and at some events, organizers are said to have been selling sponsorship packages for as much as $300,000. In the local Lebanese market, typical convention sponsorship rates rarely top $50,000 and often are closer to $20,000, depending on the type of event. 

Depending on from which angle one approaches the economy of conferencing, one gains a different image of the expenditures and gains involved. But from all approaches, conferences represent a considerable investment that comes with a high pressure to deliver results.

On the corporate side, not only are sponsorship involvements costly, also a company that sends top employees to attend a conference faces an expenditure per participant that can easily exceed $10,000 for upper management, estimates Abou Zaki, when a total is calculated for direct travel, accommodations and related expenses, investment of productive time, and per diem allowance for an executive.

Conferencing from a Tourism Perspective

While the benefits of a conference for participating corporations and individuals can arrive in diverse forms, the industry that reaps income most directly from conference activities is the hospitality industry. 

On the venue side of conferencing, Lebanon spots a multi-purpose hall, BIEL, that can host exhibitions and conferences, but the main suppliers of conference facilities are top-end hotels with dedicated capacities to this segment of business travel. Their conference and banquet facilities are important assets for hotels such as the Phoenicia, the Habtoor Grand Hotel and Metropolitan Palace, the Le Royal in Dbayeh, the Crowne Plaza, the Moevenpick, the two Rotana hotels, the Marriott, the Commodore, the Rivera, the Radisson, and others.

With their state-of-the art convention halls, especially the Phoenicia InterContinental and the new Habtoor property are catering to the high-end of the conferences market, where the Phoenicia over the past six years played a pioneering role in establishing Beirut as conferencing destination. “We are a corporate hotel and stopped having a low season because of conferences where we had growth every single year since opening,” says Maha Bourachi, director of sales at the Phoenicia InterContinental.

Booked usually during the off season for recreational tourism, international conferences, of which the Phoenicia hosts about 30 to 40 events per year with more than 100 participants each, provide hotels with both banqueting and guest accommodation business. Another advantage for the venue is that although the pre-run periods for conferences are getting shorter due to reduction in the time needed for communications and planning of events, conference bookings are fixed much farther ahead than vacations.

Between the banqueting packages, which commonly include the use of the meeting hall with purchase of meals and coffee breaks, and accommodations in connection with international conferences, the vibrancy of its convention business can determine the profitability of a major hotel. During the main conferencing season, accommodations business for out-of-town participants supplies 30 to 40 % of the Phoenicia InterContinental’s total occupancy rate, according to Bourachi, and still 10 to 15 percent for smaller houses like the LeVendome of the same chain where conference rooms are limited to fit the needs of board meetings and smaller corporate gatherings.

To put the abstract calculations into a concrete example, after staging Omaintec, a conference for operations and maintenance, at the Habtoor Grand Hotel in June, Exicon settled a bill of $200,000 with the venue, according to Zaitoun.

However, conference, under the venue’s revenue perspective, is not like conference. Doctors for example are less liberal than bankers and business leaders with their money when attending a conference, Bourachi notes. For a hotel, it is an art to assess the most rewarding conferences and associate with events that bring good results.

Global and Regional Projections

Given the fact that conferencing is an open domain where countless companies and institutions prepare and stage events internally and where services comprise the main economic activity, global turnover and contribution to GDP of the conferencing realm may be only vaguely measurable. For the tourism side, a 2003 study by the World Tourism Organization gave an indicator by showing that outbound MICE travel from Europe amounted to about 20 million trips of at least one overnight stay abroad, which is one third of business travel and 6% of all outbound trips from Europe in 2000. Nearly half of those trips, 9.7 million were in attendance of a conference or convention, and 42 % were in attending an exhibition.

There is no question, overall, that successful conference organizing is a lucrative business line. Only last month, the world’s largest publicly traded conference and publishing group, UK-based T&F Informa, acquired the previously privately held IIR Group of training and events organizers for $1.4 billion. T&F Informa, shaped only one year ago through the merger of Taylor & Francis publishers and the Informa group, organizes about 2,800 events per year and has an affiliate company in the UAE, IBC Gulf. The IIR Group, of which IIR ME is a member, is a training and conferences enterprises with a network of 45 companies that claims to have a total attendance of over 650,000 at its events annually.

How much the conferencing business contributes to the national economies of Middle Eastern host countries can only be an educated guess, since industry insiders are not aware of any statistical evaluation of the sector or analysis of distribution of shares in MICE tourism between different countries in the region. “There are neither published figures on the total size of the commercial conference market in the region, nor are there figures on the importance of this market to the national economies of the GCC,” said Mills, and Lebanese organizers made equivalent remarks for the Levant. 

This does not allow ranking of Middle Eastern conference destinations by numbers but the consensus of organizers and hospitality experts in Lebanon is that Dubai and Beirut are heading the list in terms of activities and attractiveness, with Beirut having more of a natural disposition and Dubai making the stronger efforts. Some countries are very active in pushing the development of their conferencing capacities, and destinations such as Doha, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi, and Cairo are expanding their appeal in this regard. While Amman is also doing increasing business as a conference location, sector experts say that the city’s convention hosting is turning into a niche role for events focusing on Iraq.

According to the Lebanese conference organizers and hospitality experts, Beirut has clear advantages and selling points as regional conferencing location in its traditional attractiveness to Gulf companies, good distance to Europe and Gulf, developed skill base in services such as translations, PR and hospitality, and its overall points of attractions as tourism destination. The latter include nightlife lures, which conference organizers insist play some but not a major role in drawing businessmen to conferences. Weak points are the lack of a convention center of international format, under-powered public sector support, image issues, and the country’s vulnerability to instability and pressures.

There was not the slightest disagreement among the sector specialists Executive talked to that 2005 has to be dismissed as a year where conferencing here could not perform as expected. The Phoenicia InterContinental had been actively promoting itself as conference destination to more and more markets, including European countries, and the hotel had been making inroads in those markets as upscale location for conventions.

“Meetings were materializing,” Bourachi says, “and then four years of work evaporated.” Nonetheless, she continues to expect a full rebound of the business. “We are still optimistic for the rest of 2005, and for 2006, we expect the golden year that we had expected for 2005,” she says.   

“Aside from the political issues, I think the conference business will boom in Lebanon,” says Zaitoun. “But I don’t see how you can take the political issues away.”                     

August 25, 2005 0 comments
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Special Section

Burning Desire For Cigars

by Executive Contributor August 25, 2005
written by Executive Contributor

Consider this. The cigar shop at Beirut International Airport sells the largest volume (100,000 boxes per year) at arguably the best value anywhere in the world, while its VIP cigar lounge has won a Frontier Award (the “Oscar” of the global duty free industry) in the Special Concept of the Year category.

Lebanon imports some 5 million cigars a year (roughly equivalent to 5% of Cuba’s annual export production) while the market is registering healthy annual growth of around 10%. This puts Lebanon firmly in the world’s top 10 cigar consuming nations alongside Germany, France and Spain. It is not surprising therefore, that Phoenicia Trading, the company that imports Cuban cigars into Lebanon, is keen to nurture this national obsession. 

This culture has not come easily. Robust marketing has been key in increasing awareness and developing tastes. “Our marketing strategy is mainly focused in the on trade market,” said Walid Saleh XXXX of Phoenicia Trading. “We make regular, often monthly promotions, cross promotions, continuous advertising and panels, motivation certificates for loyal customers, sponsorship agreements at important events, associations and live demonstrations.” Saleh also explained that Phoenicia Trading is also involved in brand building through alliances (it has teamed up with drinks giant Diageo) to sell cigars via complementary drink brands.

Retailing has also matured. During the war, cigars were sold in kiosks, other non-specialist stores and at duty free shop at the airport. It was not until 1994 that the first specialist store, La Casa Del Habano, opened. Since then others have followed, elevating cigars and cigar accessories – humidors, lighters cutters and the like – into a higher retail consciousness.  The smoker has also evolved. According to Saleh, “cigar smoking began as a trend, a status symbol, but now it has developed into a genuine culture. The customer knows exactly what he wants and cigars are becoming increasingly offered as gifts.”

Most, though not all the best cigars come from Cuba, which exports some 125 million cigars a year, saving another 100 million for the domestic market. Cuba is considered the finest tobacco-growing land in the world due to the nature of its soil and its climate, which produces a quality of leaf not found anywhere else. It is the long process through which the Cuban cigar undergoes before it gets to the consumer – seeding, farming, harvesting, fermentation, manufacturing, quality control, boxing and ageing – that allows them to charge top dollar and which puts them on a higher quality plane than cigars made in the Dominican Republic and Honduras (so potent a brand is Cuba that those cigar manufacturers that moved to other islands have lost their mystique and market share).

For the record, the trend today among Lebanese smokers is for medium ring gauge cigars, a move away from the bigger ring gauge that once defined the taste of the local smoker. The most popular brands are, in order, Romeo Y Julieta, Partagas, Hoyo De Monterrey, Cohiba, Montecristo, while the most preferred sizes are, again in order of popularity, Robustos, Petit Coronas, Coronas, Churchills, and Corona Gordas. (Double Coronas, which require longer – up to three hours to smoke – come in 8th place.).

Smoking a cigar is closely associated with having made it. It is the totem of celebration. It is also a luxury good, the finest of which stand alongside the best caviar, watches, clothes, and wine. Women are gradually learning to enjoy delights of cigars, especially the smaller models. Perhaps therefore it is fitting to leave the final word with actress Demi Moore, who claims to be partial to a puff. “A cigar is like a fine wine,” she said recently. “There’s a quality, a workmanship, a passion that goes into the smoking of a fine cigar.” Who would disagree with her?

August 25, 2005 0 comments
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Special Section

Lebanon’s Flair For Finery

by William Long August 25, 2005
written by William Long


When one thinks of luxury goods, it could be argued that no commodity comes to mind quicker than diamonds. This is especially good news for Lebanon, which, historically, has a very intimate relationship with the dazzling rocks.
“Lebanon knows about diamonds,” explained Atef Nsouli, second in charge of one of Lebanon’s top jewelry exporters, Nsouli Jewelry.
“The old families here were the gateway to the Gulf for diamond jewelry. They had the know how from the West and the trade with the East and the South.”
Lucky indeed, since, for an economy whose many sectors have been battered over the years, and especially as of late, jewelry generally, and diamonds in particular, have stood the test of time, posting successive growth rates on the export side since 1996.
According to the Ministry of Trade and Economy, jewelry is Lebanon’s number one export industry, constituting more than 30% of the overall industrial sector in Lebanon.
The latest data shows that jewelry exports increased an astounding 350% between 1996 and 2004 (2003 saw an unprecedented jump mainly due to volatile gold and precious stone prices).
Overall, the country’s jewelry sector is believed to be a $530 million market with slightly more than half of that amount attributed to exports.
Although hard data is difficult to come by, it is also believed that the sector employs roughly 20,000 persons in both retail positions and production.
“The Gulf countries are basically our main target markets,” explained Nsouli. “Around the Gulf we have many partnerships… the name is not on the door necessarily but from zero to finish everything is done here and is Nsouli.”
Importing unfinished diamonds from Belgium, precious stones from India and precious metals like gold from Africa, many of Lebanon’s top jewelers like Selim Mouzannar, Chatila, Najib Tabbah, Mouawad and Paolo Bonja have indeed made a global name for themselves as high quality, high-end producers of jewelry
Especially in recent years, this has proved extremely fortuitous since Lebanon itself, despite the positive export figures, appears to be at a turning point in terms of the industry.
In fact, several domestic industry members told Executive that Mouwad recently opened a huge production facility in China where costs can be as much as 50% less than in Lebanon.
More significantly, China as a whole is finally starting to pose a serious challenge to high–end exporters the world round because the quality of the workmanship has improved so dramatically in recent years.
“They (the East Asian producers) are very competitive,” said Vasken Hadidian, President of the Lebanese Jewelry Syndicate. “They are definitely the next invader for the jewelry market although as finished products and diamond quality they are not there yet.”
Nevertheless, the situation has already reached a point where, according to one top jeweler who asked to remain anonymous, “Some Lebanese now import from East Asia to re-export to GCC countries.”
What all this means is that Lebanese Jewelry brands are becoming international brands more than anything else – with global production facilities and offshore subsidiaries in places like Dubai.
All of which represents a decided shift from previous decades when Jewelry was produced locally, Gulf tourists would come here to buy jewelry they could not buy near to home and local exporters would sell directly from within the geographic borders of the country.
“Maybe I should have an offshore company to resell jewelry,” added one jeweler. “If I have a an order from Saudi, I would then sell from Dubai to jump over the taxes that we encounter here in Lebanon.”
The idea is hardly far fetched.
Today, Dubai offers the Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre, a hub for gold, diamonds and commodities trade aimed at attracting key players throughout the entire supply chain.
“It is a very ambitious project and they are doing well,” explained Selim Mouzannar. “They try to gather all the retailers within the free zone right next to the cutting and finishing facilities. It is incredible and very hard to compete with from within Lebanon.”
The government has done its part to alleviate some of the strain.
According to Hadidian, Lebanon has signed onto the Kimberly process agreement, which currently involves 48 governments and the diamond industry in an attempt to create a certification system that would label legitimate stones, thereby blocking the sale of conflict diamonds and protecting the integrity of the $7.8-billion annual trade.
Statistics show that about four percent of that trade is in conflict diamonds, which are said to have financed terrorism.
Lebanon also eliminated customs duties on all consumables and chemicals used in jewelry manufacturing, stopped tariffs on precious stones and decreased the VAT from 10% to just 1.2%
“These steps help, but there is much work to be done,” added Hadidian.
“Lebanon is known around the world as a top producer of jewelry but the market is changing rapidly even as Lebanese companies grow outside of the country.”

Lebanese couture
When it comes to fashion, Lebanese designers are no slouches. In an international market long dominated by the likes of Chanel, Valentino and Jean Paul Gautlier, a handful of Lebanese designers, spurred on by the relative abundance of textiles as well as the country’s longstanding ties to high-yield export destinations, have steadily managed to carve out their own position within the world of Haute Couture.
In the process, a privileged space has opened up to these native sons and daughters – a world of Paris fashion shows, $15,000 one of a kind evening dresses and the coveted celebrity customer which can make or break a name (and a business) almost overnight.
Thus, despite the high entry costs and fickle buying habits of the super rich, speaking with newly minted Lebanese designers, as well as Haute Couture mainstays like Elie Saab and Zuheir Murad, one is left with the strong impression that the increasing prominence of Lebanese designers on the international scene has been an outright boon for the export end of the business, especially in the Gulf, Europe and America.
“The name of our brand has greatly expanded worldwide,” explained Zena Chedid, International Communications Director for Elie Saab.
“America, especially, is a growing market for us. At the same time, new markets have opened up in Asia and South America.”
While Chedid, like all designers, was reluctant to reveal any concrete numbers, at least one local industry insider pegged overall luxury fashion exports in the tens of millions of dollar range, with the bulk of that accounted for by Gulf buyers.
“The truth is that we could not have made it to Rome [Elie Saab was the first Arab designer in the Middle East to present a couture collection in Rome in 1996] if we didn’t have the success that we had in the Arab world. Forty percent of our couture clients are in the GCC market,” added Chedid.
For newcomers like Wissam Chammas too, the Gulf markets are similarly viewed as a relatively affordable stepping stone, a gateway really, to the loftier heights already attained by the handful of Lebanese designers who showed last month, on calendar and off, at Paris Fashion Week.
“Regionally and internationally the Lebanese designers are very important now,” explained Chammas from his atelier in Jdeideh.
“The quality of the materials and the designs themselves, especially in the wedding dresses and evening dresses produced by high-end Lebanese designers, are extremely popular in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and also Egypt. You see, Gulf buyers and others here order from Lebanon because we are living within the Arab world so we know what they want and what they think and what they like to wear.”
For Chammas and other designers, three additional factors play to the favor of Lebanese designers: First, unlike in Egypt, designers here have a wide access to high-quality, internationally produced textiles – thousands rather than dozens of styles can be easily perused and acquired. Second, there are relatively few high-end designers operating from within the region. And third, putting on a show and reserving space on the satellite channels is relatively affordable – perhaps ten or twenty thousand dollars rather than the 100,000 plus for Paris, Milan or Rome.
“There are not many designers in the Gulf, for one,” explained Chammas. “ So Lebanon is really first and almost alone. And you can afford to enter the marketplace.”
Of course, aspiring to the favor of regional buyers is but one position fancied by all local designers. After all, the real prize is the huge export markets of Europe and America.
“ Names like Saab, Robert Abi Nader and Reem Akra [a Lebanese wedding dress designer, based in New York City] are now clearly on the international radar,” explained Mandy Erikson, CEO of New York’s Showroom Seven and PR rep for Haute Couture designers like the edgy Imitation of Christ line which showed last month alongside Saab and others at Paris Fashion Week.
“They’ve managed to carve out a niche with a distinctive style that blends many different components – Middle Eastern, one could say, and European all at once. Really it is a true international pastiche.”
“The reception in Paris for the Zuheir Murad show was excellent,” explained Rita Lamah, executive manager at the Bouchrieh-based designer.
“He started ten years ago and has grown steadily ever since, both in the region and internationally. We now have stores in several capital cities around the world and at the same time we have numerous stars in the Middle East who wear Zuheir Murad. We are also the only line in the region doing Haute Couture men’s fashion.”
While the increasing success garnered by Lebanese designers is obviously appreciated by the designers themselves, not to mention their aspiring competitors, it is also increasingly being seen as the key to reviving the overall Lebanese apparel sector.
Indeed, according to a January 2004 study by the United Nation’s Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), textile manufactures in Lebanon must target high-end fashion markets if they are to counter dwindling exports and daunting competition from international imports.
“The haute-couture (high-end fashion) segment, which has also been growing relatively fast over the past five to 10 years, may help Lebanon to recover the reputation for fashion that it once enjoyed in the region,” read the report, “ A Case Study: The Apparel Industry in Lebanon.”
Demand for value-added fashion, the report added, such as wedding gowns and lingerie, has increased because of the large number of predominantly rich tourists, especially Gulf Arabs, who are seeking these goods both here and at home.
“There is evidence that [a] painful transition is beginning to produce some positive results, which eventually may lead to a revitalized, but very different sector based on high skill levels, niche markets and high-margin products that target the upper echelons of the export and domestic market,” the study concluded. “The evidence is a powerful affirmation of the great potential that could yet be unleashed by the Lebanese apparel manufacturing industry.”
Lets hope so.

In vino veritas

Finally a word about wine. Lebanese wine has been around for 6,000 years but until recently, it was obscure and unpredictable. It wasn’t until 1979, when Serge Hochar’s Chateau Musar created a stir at the Bristol Wine fair in the UK that the world began to sit up and take notice. Today, Hochar’s greatest vintages are among the most coveted in the world and sell for top dollar.

More recently, Chateau Kefraya’s Comte De M 1996 was eulogized by Robert Parker the gunslinging American wine critic. His trademark grading system, is enough to make or break a vintage. ‘Below 90 you can’t sell it,’ remarked the equally unconventional Bordeaux wine merchant Jeffrey Davies. ‘Above 95, you can’t find it.’ Parker awarded The Comte de M ’96 a score of 91 points, a score Parker considers denotes ‘an outstanding wine of exceptional complexity and character. I consider these terrific wines.’  It was a landmark ruling and demonstrated that Lebanese wine was not a one off.

Since then, many wine critics have passed similar, if less dramatic judgments on Lebanon’s wines. Oz Clarke, the British Wine celebrity, has called Chateau Clos St Thomas “stunning” while Chateau Ksara, Domaine Wardy, Massaya and Cave Kouroum have all been ranked and in the best wine annuals and guides. In London and Paris Lebanese wines can be found in the finest outlets, including the Wine Society, Harrods, Selfridges, Nicholas, the Paris Ritz, Le Crillon, and the Georges V. Other, less high profile but equally lucrative, markets include the US, Canada, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Russia and Japan. It’s a tradition, it seems that, that won’t go away.

August 25, 2005 0 comments
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Special Section

The Lap Of Luxury

by Michael Karam August 25, 2005
written by Michael Karam

There is a dark blue Ferrari that is often parked, for weeks at a time, outside one of Beirut’s most prestigious hotels. The number plate is Saudi Arabian. The valets cluck around it like mother hens, dusting and wiping, as it sits, waiting for its owner to gun the engine and pull out into the tree-lined streets of Ashrafieh. A home away from home? Who knows? But distilled into this mini montage is everything modern Lebanon can deliver to the discerning: luxury, beauty, service, and ambiance.

At the risk of sounding smug, I am going to venture that Lebanon and Beirut possess a cachet that other Arab capitals don’t. Fairly or unfairly, the Lebanese are known for their high living in a way that the Jordanians, Syrians, Iraqis and Palestinians simply are not, while gleaming new cities of the Gulf – the thrusting, efficient, commercial powerhouses that they are – do not have Beirut’s distressed elegance. The Lebanese are seen as the “European” Arabs and as such have carved out a unique niche for themselves in the enjoyment and purveyance of luxury living.

Even the diaspora has exported this reputation for joie de vivre and extravagance. True, the French apparently have a phrase for us “comme les Libanais” (in effect, a bit too much jewelry) and the English may wince at how we behave in their better nightclubs and have made the foodhalls at Harrods and Selfridges our own, but the overwhelming sense is that we are a nation of travelers and traders who live to live well and consume in style. Lebanese restaurants from London to Sydney have been elevated above mundane ethnic fare. Chateau Musar stands alongside the best Bordeaux and, while, to the world, the Greek Ouzo is seen as the drink of the cheery tourist, Arak is held up as the real deal, a drink for those in the know. It is all to do with perception and, despite everything, we have still held onto our mystique.

Ironically, the war may have further whetted our appetite for luxury and brand consciousness. It forced a new generation to leave and make their fortunes, while those who could afford to decamp to the capitals of Europe and the Americas merely consolidated their knowledge of Western retail habits. This know-how has been shipped back by the container load and today, 15 years after the guns fell silent and four years after the events of 9/11 shifted the Arab tourist dynamic to cobbled streets of downtown Beirut, Lebanon is settling into its rightful role of the region’s cornucopia. 

Just as important is that our fellow Arabs recognize this in us and want us to sell it to them with all the panache of our Phoenician ancestors. High net worth clients and a nation of boutique owners: a match made in heaven.

We have the best goods but we also have the chutzpah. A shopper knows that if he walks into even the finest boutique or jeweler, he can put his cards on the table and negotiate a deal, because we are the original dealmakers. Try doing that in Milan or London or even Dubai and you will get an awkward look and a lecture on policy. The only policy in Lebanon is to sell.

And we do it in style. Our service is in itself a luxury item. Our human resources – shop assistants, waiters and concierges – look a million dollars, can converse in two, sometimes three, maybe even four languages and above all know how to talk to their fellow Arabs. The importance of this, especially when selling a luxury item, is impossible to overestimate. In a world where the concept of service is in decline and where the Arab is often viewed as a potential trouble maker, the fact that a Saudi Arabian woman can arrive in Beirut, anonymously drop $1 million on jewelry, watches and clothes and have them dropped off at her hotel within 30 minutes, is not only good retailing, it’s a national asset. Go to London, once the benchmark for this kind of thing and see what you are now faced with: clueless asylum seekers from Eastern Europe and equally scatterbrained Australians and South Africans on a gap year.

Women, commonly accepted, especially in the Arab world, to be the most frequent and ravenous shoppers, can feel free in Beirut. If they are from the Gulf countries, none of the strictures of home apply and there will also be none of the suspicious looks they might get in Europe. Petty crime is almost non-existent, while the security threats that cow the Americans and the Europeans are dismissed by the Gulf Arabs who live with similar anxieties in their own countries. They will and do take their chances.

And let us not forget the triple assets of ambiance, architecture and temperature. Not only does Lebanon have the goods at the right price, for those who live in an air-conditioned bubble, it offers the chance off shopping and dining in a Mediterranean atmosphere in a country that was not built in the last 60 years and in a climate that won’t kill you if there is a power outage.  No wonder, wealthy Arabs and expatriate Lebanese are paying top dollar to live in the downtown where they can moor their boat, shop and dine in an environment unlike anywhere in the region.

For the Lebanese, there is now less and less need to travel to shop, no more tiresome shopping expeditions to Europe’s capitals. The names they so covet abroad – Les Galleries Lafayette, Harvey Nichols and Printemps – have all hinted that they will open up shop in Beirut. The Downtown’s retail dynamic is full of promise. Already the area that borders Rues Foch and Allenby has become the epicenter of fine shopping and one that will eventually become Beirut’s Bond Street. And there is more to come. The Souks, with roughly 52,000 m2 of retail space – including a 15,000m2 dept store – will simply add to the critical mass and could easily achieve revenues of $270 million in its first year, nearly 10% of Lebanon’s retail sector. 

Lebanon has also moved into the modern retail culture with a remarkably efficient VAT refund system (operated by Global refund and the Ministry of Finance) that has been in operation since 2002. Not only does this offer the immediate attraction of getting one’s money back but it also demonstrates a degree of regulation in the local retail sector.

Finally, at the risk of painting a picture of mindless consumption, local retailers will tell you that the tourist shopper does not come to Beirut to spend on necessities. Interestingly enough when it comes to sales of premier fashion clothes, watches and jewelry, Beirut compares well to Dubai, the new kid on the block, but loses out to the Emirate on electronic goods: Dubai – technical and new – versus Lebanon – sensual and old. 

“They are on holiday and want to buy a bauble, not a stereo,” said one market watcher. A Rolex slid across the table during dinner, the thrill of a new Cartier necklace, worn as the waves lap at the beach at sunset, a kilo of finest Beluga caviar or even the throaty roar of a pedigree sportscar. Beirut can offer it all. 

August 25, 2005 0 comments
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Cover story

Border Backlash

by Thomas Schellen & Nicholas Blanford August 25, 2005
written by Thomas Schellen & Nicholas Blanford

The story starts in Masnaa, at the Lebanese border station. The line of trucks begins a few hundred meters east of the Masnaa crossing and continues for the next 8 kilometers to the Syrian customs post at Jdeidet. The trucks are double-parked bumper to bumper along the highway snaking through the barren mountains of the Anti-Lebanon, leaving a single lane for smaller vehicles to pass by. Drivers escape the blistering heat sitting in the shade of their lorries or beneath small trees on the side of the highway, drinking tea and chatting.

This was the picture for most of July, since Syrian border inspections overnight slowed down to snail pace. “Instead of 150 to 200 trailers per day, the inspectors let only five or six pass,” said Yacoub Kaissi, vice president of the Lebanese shipping syndicate. There are also numbers in circulation that suggest a slightly higher entrance rate, of 30 to 40 cargo vehicles to make it through the inspections per day, but the situation of the truckers stuck in the no-man’s land queue is in either case abysmal.

“It usually takes two minutes to drive from Masnaa to Jdeidet, but I have only moved a few inches in a week,” said Ayad Rahim, an Iraqi truck driver. Rahim has risked his life for much of the past three years carrying goods between Baghdad and Beirut. Several of his colleagues have been robbed and some even killed along the dangerous desert highway between the Iraqi capital and the border with Syria.

It is not that he had turned to the dangerous job because of high profits. “I have no choice,” Rahim said. “What else can I do for money? Beg?” His protection against bandits, he said, is his rusty and dilapidated lorry. “No one wants to steal it because it looks in bad condition,” he said.

Lebanese drivers return to Masnaa each day to stock up on food and water for their stranded colleagues. “We can’t go into Lebanon or Syria to eat because we would need a visa,” said Said Khalfan from Oman. “We depend on the Lebanese and Syrian truck drivers to bring us supplies.”

There is also no gas station. Some of the trucks carry perishable goods such as fruit and vegetables for markets in the Gulf, forcing drivers to keep engines running continuously to work the refrigeration units. “I have spent $200 on fuel,” said Abu Khalil, a Lebanese. “My truck needs 70 liters of diesel each day.” The normal price for 20 liters of diesel is about $3. But enterprising motorists heading in the opposite direction are taking advantage of the truckers’ declining fuel supplies to sell them black market diesel at three or four times the normal price.

“I have run out of fuel and I have no money and all my fruit has gone rotten,” grumbled Abu Khaled, a truck driver from Tripoli. “The Syrian customs officials won’t even let me turn my truck around and return to Lebanon. All I want to do is go home.”

While the truckers were stuck, many passengers traveling from Beirut to Damascus by private car or taxi experienced only minimal delays from new safety inspections that also apply to cars. The official Syrian explanation for the obstruction of cargo transports is that it is due to the need for anti-terrorist controls and new customs station construction measures. These are so unconvincing that one hesitates to dignify them by repeating them. 

The references to security concerns “bring up the question of why now?” commented Joshua Landis, a Damascus-based American expert on Syria. “Syria always closed their eyes to the border as long as they were in charge of Lebanese politics. Now they are not in charge so they use border pressure. No Lebanese is going to believe that this is a bureaucratic problem,” he said.

In Lebanese and international media, the crisis at the border had been discussed predominantly under the aspect of the damages to produce stranded en route and the loss of income incurred by farmers, estimated by Lebanese agricultural lobbyists as $300,000 per day. The direct impact of wht is in effect a   blockade of Lebanese exports and transit shipments, on Lebanese merchants and manufacturers and the long-term implications to Lebanese industry were underreported. (See Q&A with Fadi Abboud on page xx)

Largely ignored were the troubles faced by the Lebanese transportation sector as a result of this crisis, as the drama in July was to a significant extent a transport story. Curiously enough, representatives of the transport industry found it hard to estimate losses incurred as a result of the sector’s inability to send its trucks to and through Syria to Iraq, Turkey, Jordan, and the GCC countries.

While Kaissi claimed that the reduction in road exports had been 90% or more during the July crisis, he said he could not give a strong estimate on the damage to trucking businesses and freight forwarders, only that it had been “really substantial.”

Sea-bound transport on the other hand, “had not been affected too much,” said Elie Zakhour, president of Lebanon’s International Chamber of Navigation maritime transport organization, citing the massive slowdown in shipments of transit cargo to Iraq due to the persistent security problems there. “Over 90 % of cargo to Iraq is not flowing,” he said.

Only in the express freight segment of the transportation industry, did companies present details on the economic damage incurred from the border crisis. “We had to stop running our trucks from here to the Gulf and take all freight to air, which represented a 20 to 25% increase in costs on our margins” said John Chedid, country manager for express shippers DHL. According to Chedid, the situation struck the company in the middle of its most vibrant year ever, shipping goods to and from Lebanon.

It is worth remembering at this juncture that transportation is one of the unfulfilled hopes of the Lebanese economy and that in a “normal” political environment the country should be able to derive far more income from its natural comparative advantages as a transportation and shipping center than it does. At several regional transportation industry forums over the past few years, Lebanon had invariably been described as a potential hub for sea, land and air cargo and the origin/termination point for a possible land shipping alternative to the Suez Canal that could shorten and cheapen transit times between many business centers in Asia and in Europe. 

In this context then, the current border problems with Syria hints at an underlying story and foreshadows problems that the Lebanese economy could drift into should it continue.

When talking to Executive about the July crisis, every economic analyst and business leader in Beirut pointed first to the political nature of the problem. Yet beyond the political dimension, this crisis between Syria and Lebanon lends itself to comparisons from family life and the Arab proverb that no strife is more poisoned than strife among brothers.

It seems the atmosphere in our neighboring country is being deliberately loaded with animosity while editorials peddle absurd accusations against Lebanon, and one hears of Syrian businesses being forced to procure goods from Jordanian instead of Lebanese suppliers, of concealed advice to buy apartments in Amman instead of Beirut and bank in other banks other than those in Chtaura.

As the people being hit by border closure on the Lebanese side in the first instance were the struggling farmers and truckers whose work conditions are punishing in the best of times, the people to suffer immediately on the Syrian side were ordinary average citizens whose foreign produce was confiscated by border inspectors. “They are not allowing anything in—not even a tie of bread,” said Yassin Touma, a taxi driver who makes the daily trip between Damascus and Lebanon. One man, who asked not to be named, told an Executive reporter that the customs agents removed even a tube of toothpaste from his bag, because it was still boxed.

This humiliation of small people, however, is not the whole problem. The Syrian-Lebanese economic links are of paramount importance to the future of both countries. In the first five months of 2005, Lebanon’s exports contracted by 2.6% over the same period in 2004, to $710 million. Of those $710 million, $87 million went to Syria, followed by Iraq ($67 million) and Turkey. Syria as export market and route for transit shipments is essential for Lebanon’s future as gateway to a Middle East.

In the other direction, Lebanon’s labor market, albeit small, through its use of Syrian workers has assisted Damascus in countering the debilitating unemployment at home and eased socioeconomic burdens on Syria that some analysts say would be 30% larger without the labor export to Lebanon. So, at stake here are the ties between two nations that by all geo-strategic and geo-economic reckoning and reasoning need each other. “The situation is not yet critical but it is highly disturbing. It is not advisable for any country to be in such a situation,” one Lebanese investment banker told Executive on condition of anonymity.

And what does Lebanon do? Not much, apart from crying over spoilt tomatoes. Members of the shipping industry and other stakeholders met a few times and experimentally discussing alternatives to land transport, such as a defiant air lift to carry cargo over Syria or hiring ferries to take the stranded trucks to a departure point from where they could proceed. But the practical discussions were limited by the constraints of availability of such boats and planes and the cost factors related to hiring them. A more radical approach, one that would forego cost in the pursuit of sending a nationalist signal, could not find backers with enough financial fire power or the sheer guts to pull it off.

On the political scene, the voices coming of the Lebanese side were astonishingly calm, even when the preoccupation with cabinet building under tremendous mental stress are taken into consideration. “I am surprised that the politicians were not more vocal,” said an economist in Beirut, also on condition of anonymity.

And what about the legal framework? Syria evidently has deemed it appropriate to abandon all its obligations under the various treaties of mutual benefit and everlasting brotherhood that the two neighboring countries signed over the last 15 years. But where are the outcries from the Lebanese side, the public and private sector lobbying at the EU, the UN, or the will to hold Syria legally – or at least morally – accountable for the valid obligations it signed in relation with Lebanon without being under any pressure to do so?

All things considered, the picture that emerges in the summer of 2005 seems fit to be a psychograph of Lebanese-Syrian relationships. As such, it bears semblance not so much to a war between brothers as to a marriage where the husband thinks he can maintain a façade of decency while he in truth terrorizes his spouse and beats her into submission any time she dares to move a finger without begging permission.

To make for a pathological psychograph, both partners in the relationship have to display behavior that deviates from the norms of sanity. For Lebanon, this is the time to keep an upright stance. It may not inventing excuses for the blindness Syria shows for its own best long-term interests and the transgressions it commits by not living up to its agreed obligations.

It is well known that from an airplane, most borders are unnoticeable. The borders between sovereign Syria and sovereign Lebanon have to evolve into transfer points of mutual benefits. In the meanwhile, if the world should pay attention to the illegality and destructiveness of what Syria has been instigating at her borders, Lebanon’s private sector titans, political leaders, media commentators and opinion makers have roles to play and things to do.

August 25, 2005 0 comments
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Dispatches

Driving Porsche’s

by Executive Contributor August 25, 2005
written by Executive Contributor

Where better to test drive a new Porsche than along hundreds of miles of summer greenery-draped German country roads and famously speed-limitless German “Autobahns” [motorways]? I have long dreamed the Porsche-lover’s dreams of poetic rides. So when Ghada el-Kari, public relations manager for Porsche Middle East Dubai, suggests I to test-drive the new Porsche 911 Carrera 4S Cabriolet at its press launch in Germany my Porschophile pulse leaps off the chart.

I’m not an automotive journalist. My invitation to what Ghada explains will be a veritable Porsche gala is the product of Porsche’s decision to give its brand greater exposure in business magazines – read by people with a high propensity to spend.

Three weeks later, the Lufthansa plane is touching down in Cologne, Germany, center of the Porsche universe. And only a few hours after that I’m already enveloped by the sleek twin-tone grained-leather interior of the new Carrera 4 (S), savoring the still-smooth hum of the 3.8 liter, six-cylinder 325 bhp engine as I gently rev out of the luxury Grandhotel Schloss Bensberg, down Kadettenstrasse, and onto exhilarating open road for one-and-a-half hours of automotive bliss.

The car’s wide-rear end and muscular wheel arches propel me forward as, unable to resist, I immediately bring back with a touch of a button the 4S’s aerodynamically-styled soft lightweight folding roof and invite in the refreshing rush of late-afternoon German countryside summer air.

Arriving at a suitably long, empty stretch of straight road, I slow to a halt, pause for an intoxicating anticipatory second, my hand caressing the glossy smooth-leather-topped six-speed manual gear stick, then abruptly hit the gas and leave my stomach on the tarmac behind me as I roar up to 100 km/h in just under five vein-bursting seconds. Gripping the special leather sports steering wheel, I feel the urge to whoop. The 4S offers Tiptronic S automatic five-speed transmission as an alternative to the manual gearshift.

Ahead is the Autobahn. I can hear the whine of limitless speed. Up the ramp I go, adrenaline pumping. Traffic is thin. I ease into the fast lane, and then my foot goes down again. In seemingly no time I’m up to 268 km/h, a speed comfortably sustained by the 4S’ powerful engines without noticeable loss of directional stability. The 4S has a stop speed of 288 km/h.

My mind is still at the wheel, as along with members of the Porsche team and a refreshing mix of fellow launch guests from as far away as India and South Africa I enjoy, later that evening, a cocktail on the terrace of my home for two nights – a former grandiose Baroque palace turned exquisite boutique hotel. Porsche’s director of corporate communications, Anton Hunger, along with his international press coordinators, Michael Baumann and Katja Leinweber, are amiable, informed and accommodating. Gliding between guests, they subtly convey the Porsche brand message while responding to queries and affably arranging introductions to Porsche’s executive vice-president for sales and marketing, Hans Riedel.

The Porsche board members and experts who subsequently welcome us are, for their part, infallibly attentive to questions about the car and tomorrow’s route. The exhaustively knowledgeable Carrera product line director August Achleitner, in particular, effuses a mélange of passion and professionalism.

After a sumptuous dinner prepared by a Michelin-star chef in the hotel’s top-class restaurant, more drinks, and cigars graciously offered by the lively Mohammad Zein from Dubai in the hotel bar, I retire to dream of the Autobahn.

The following day’s four-and-a-half hour outing, following a delightfully insightful corporate and technical press conference during which the two Carrera chassis line managers, Ulrich Morbitzer and Henning Rohardt, dazzle us with their technical expertise, offers evidence of the ease with which the Carrera 4 (S) negotiates longer distances.

As I wind my way through rolling green fields, I marvel at the four-wheel drive 4S’ ability to hug bends and remain stable – thanks to its extra-stiff body and active Porsche Active Suspension Management System (PASM). Even medium road bumps are effortlessly absorbed.

PASM is effectively an adjustable shock absorber system. In addition to lowering the car by 10mm, PASM offers two suspension settings, Normal or Sport. In the Normal mode, PASM maintains soft settings for more comfortable driving, say a loll down a chick-lined street or a post-restaurant dinner-fest drive home. 

However, if you and the guy next to you are revving at the red lights, you’ve just hit the road after watching the final phase of the Paris-Dakar rally, or your female companion really does like fast rides, then press the Sport button on the dashboard and the suspension system does a code red. The on-board computer actively adjusts each damper to ensure maximum hair-raising performance. If you’re really into the rough stuff, go for the optional Sports Chrono package. In Sport mode, it automatically adopts the most aggressive shock settings, quickens throttle response, and eases up the stability control system.

Right now, though, I’m in full-belly mode. Lulled by the serenely serpentine route, I reflect on safety.  In the event of a crash, I know I will be cushioned by no less than six airbags, including two head airbags pioneered, for open sports cars, by Porsche, two thorax airbags, and two front airbags. And I’m already comfortably secured by a three-point seatbelt with belt latch tensioners and belt force limiters. I haven’t yet encountered any wild animals on the Autobahn, but know that if I do have to slam on the 4S’ black eloxy-plated monobloc fixed-calliper four-wheel brakes in a hurry, my stopping distance will be shortened by brake fluid automatically pumped into the wheel brakes when I abruptly take my foot of the gas pedal. That, folks, is the Porsche Stability Management system for you.

If the car does, though, hit a wolf, or elephant, or other creature stalking the Autobahn and rolls over, ultra high-strength steel tubes and U-shaped rollbars will ensure I’m not crushed.

Incidentally, any abrupt loss in tire pressure will, I am told, be brought to my attention by the car’s computerized Tyre Pressure Control system. 

Enough about crashes. My mind, soothed by the steady thrum of the Porsche’s engines, wanders to entertainment. When I buy one of these babies, I muse, the Communication Management system will let me play CDs with MP3 music titles through a whopping nine speakers. But I’ll go for more. I want the DVD navigation system, and concert hall sound quality with BOSE surround sound. And so I don’t have to fish for my mobile I’ll add a telephone. Oh, and finally, I’ll have a Porsche electronic logbook. Controls mounted on the steering wheel will allow me to operate all this gadgetry.

These added perks are available as optional supplements. I’m terrible when it comes to optional supplements.

As the plane lifts off the next day, after another evening of delectable cuisine and invigorating discussion with the other launch guests, I cannot help but reflect upon more than just the seductive growl of the Porsche Carrera 4S Cabriolet engine and the rush of wind on the Autobahn – My brief, but immensely gratifying, stay in Germany has taught me that Porsche managers, representatives, technicians, experts, and enthusiasts – in fact everyone who has anything to do with Porsche – all form one happy, exclusive, cross-continental family.

August 25, 2005 0 comments
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Special Section

Turning Deserts Into Destinations

by Thomas Schellen August 23, 2005
written by Thomas Schellen

The news struck first at the Jordan World Economic Forum: a consortium under leadership of Saad Hariri is creating Saraya Aqaba, a major new leisure project in the Gulf of Aqaba, Jordan’s Red Sea destination regarded as very promising for international recreational and aquatic tourism.

Ten years ago, the Aqaba region featured little more than 1,000 hotel rooms and an interesting topography and spectacular coral reefs nearby. Today, the area is focus of two huge tourism development zones with several large-scale projects each, and after visitor numbers to Jordan last year began rebounding from their 2002/2003 lows, hotels are hot properties.

Partners in Saraya Aqaba from the private sector are Hariri’s Saraya Jordan enterprise and the Arab Bank, teaming up with the kingdom’s Social Security Corporation and Aqaba Development Corporation on the public sector side. What made the news of Saraya Aqaba savory from an investment perspective was that the developers, besides putting up initial capital of $242 million, announced a $120 million private placement and appointed Jordanian investment bank Atlas Invest, a daughter of Arab Bank, as lead manager.  

According to Atlas Invest, Saraya Aqaba will indeed be a mega-project. Situated on a territory where a 100 meter stretch of coast line has been developed into a man-made lagoon with a 1.5 kilometer beach front, the project will comprise four five-star hotels and one six-star hotel with a combined 1,500 rooms plus commercial areas, conference and sports facilities. Built up area is projected at 648,000 m2 on a total land surface of 610,000 m2.

“The initial cost projection for the tourism complex is $620 million,” corporate finance expert Fares Hammami of Atlas Invest told Executive, while residential construction on the outskirts of the development would bring the total scope into the $1 billion range and be running on a fast track. While being constructed at the same time as two competing projects in Aqaba, “Saraya will be done within three years, faster than the others,” he said.    The commitment to fast execution of the project is reminiscent of Rafik Hariri’s breakthrough project in Taif in 1978, when he built the city’s first hotel in nine months.

But the existential question for investors in the project is of course if a tourism venture is rational, secure and rewarding from a financial angle. Conventional wisdom says that in the past, the construction of hotels and forays into new tourism ventures were the sole domain of hospitality sector experts who had the expertise and confidence to run such an enterprise in the often unpredictable business of attracting and serving foreign visitors. Investment banks thus are not all always eager to enter into tourism ventures. “It is a very special field, where the key criteria is revenue generation. This is totally different from financing real estate, which often is a one-time shot,” said Walid Mussallam, CEO of Beirut-based investment bank MECG.

Tourism is a volatile business, acknowledged Hammami and his asset management colleague Sami Naboulsi at Atlas Invest. To secure that the Saraya Aqaba project stands on sound fundamentals, they said Atlas Invest had it valuated by two independent consulting firms, one based in Jordan and one based in the UK.

“From an investment banking point of view, investing in tourism is capital-intensive and long-term. Real estate in Jordan is still among the cheapest in the region and this, plus the political stability and the country’s role as gateway to Iraq, attracts foreign investments,” added Naboulsi.

The Saraya Aqaba project is well in tune with the recent surge of huge tourism-related projects in the Arab countries. Within Dubai ‘s development pot that is boiling with projects under the motto, the bigger the better, tourism ventures such as Dubailand and mega-hotels make up huge chunks. The fever has also struck Qatar, which launched a $15 billion program for creating its tourism infrastructure.

Such moves in directing abundantly flowing oil revenue are definitely more promising for regional development than the shopping sprees which Arab capital undertook in the US and Europe during the first oil price boom. But that does not mean that the individual investment projects could not overheat.

“If you are creating a green-field (something out of nothing) destination, the biggest challenge is that you have to spend tons of money. It only works if you have government support and a critical mass,” said Naji Butros, Beirut-based partner in the international firm Colony Capital, which is engaged is several large tourism enterprises and projects from Sardinia to the US and the Far East.

Such investments need a long-term vision, while capital in this part of the world mostly is trading capital, with a limited horizon, Butros said. He cautioned that raising private equity and seeking an Initial Public Offering for a venture prior to it being up and running creates hype. “Investors are making money from the hype of a project. As disciplined institutional investors, we don’t evaluate these projects. After the hype there will always be a return to basics.”

According to Butros, investing in tourism projects, especially green-field projects, needs a long-term vision, large size, preparation through extensive independent studies, a loyal base of wealthy clients at the project, a clear view of the competition, and avoidance of hype.

Although it has not been caught by a wave of enthusiasm for over-sized investments, Lebanon has its share of both large-scale and smaller tourism investment projects, and tourism is by far the biggest point of attraction to regional and foreign capital givers, many of whom are pure financial investors and not hospitality operators.

Under the Investment Development Law 360, the Investment Development Authority of Lebanon (IDAL) has been offering its attractive package deal contracts since 2002 to investors with projects valued upwards of $50 million. According to article 17 in the law, package deal benefits can entail an income tax exemption for up to ten years, exemption from land registration fees, and up to 50% reduction of construction permit fees and fees related to hiring foreign employees.

The procedure of granting a package deal contract starts with presenting an application for the project to IDAL, which then reviews the proposed project under feasibility, environmental impact and job creation aspects. If the agency determines the proposal to be meeting the required criteria, the project is presented to the council of ministers after which, when approved there, it benefits from the incentives, in addition to further assistance from IDAL in dealing with Lebanon’s labyrinthine bureaucracy.

IDAL-administered package deals are available in six areas of economic activity, among which tourism projects have gained an outstanding role. “We have the mission of promoting the investment climate in Lebanon. Tourism has a great potential and it is the sector that is simplest for us to promote,” said Nabil Itani, IDAL chairman and general manager.   

After the $64 million Royal Hotel Resorts project of the investor group headed by Marwan Kheireddine was approved last month, the share of tourism projects climbed from 57 to 63% in IDAL’s statistics on successfully closed package deals, which means from the agency’s perspective that a project has received approval in the Council of Ministers. Among projects that have already been submitted and are currently in the pipeline for approval, an even higher 89% are classified as tourism deals.

This group of projects does not yet include the Sannine Zenith venture, but Itani said that he expected developer Tony Abou Rached to call on him at any moment. And since closed deals furthermore include 28 % [check] of “mixed projects” with a strong tourism component, the trend points in reality to over nine tenth of IDAL-supported investment arrangements in Lebanon as being in tourism, and continuing to be so.

A weakness of the current package deal structure is that many projects in metropolitan Beirut, with their high land costs, easily satisfy the requirement to be worth at least $50 million, whereas such a dimension often is not feasible for interesting projects in rural areas. Here, Itani said, “we need to develop lower criteria for attracting investment projects to regions within the north, south and the Bekaa, in order to achieve economically balanced development.” One region with predominant tourism potential where a program for improving of the investment climate is currently being finalized, is the Ibrahim river valley, he added.

While IDAL has an edge in assisting big developments in Lebanon, small and medium ventures in tourism have been supported by the loan guarantee program of the Kafalat corporation. Kafalat has been a success story in supporting Lebanon’s entrepreneurial invigoration and economic diversification through small and medium enterprises in tourism and other sectors.

The range of enterprises financed through Kafalat-guaranteed loans encompasses mostly restaurants, but also about four dozen small hotels and furnished apartment enterprises as well as some 15 tourism operators and service providers, Kafalat chairman Dr. Khater Abi Habib told Executive.

Counting 382 tourism-related companies under the wings of Kafalat, with a combined loan value of $45 million, Abi Khater said that the company was working on increasing the ceiling of loan guarantees it can provide from $200,000 to $400,000, albeit at a lower level of guarantee to the bank issuing the loan.

As the rate of loan defaults under the scheme had been exceptionally low, banks apparently are still too conservative in evaluating applications and lending to small enterprises, Abi Khater pointed out, which is an indicator that the financial company and its loan guarantee scheme is still going to be “needed for the foreseeable future.” 

August 23, 2005 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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