Business

Onward and Upward

by William Long
written by William Long

While most Lebanese were transfixed by the final pullout of Syrian troops and a lively confidence vote in Parliament, for Mounir Douaidy, Solidere’s General Manager, April 26 was little different than most of his days – these days, that is – at his office in the heart of Beirut’s Central District (BCD). He was signing contracts.

Ever guarded about revealing too much in the way of exactly how many items awaited his signature in the adjacent conference room, Douaidy was nonetheless both detailed and specific in outlining to Executive why Solidere had finally met its tipping point.

“ 2004, in my opinion, was a turning point in the life of the company,” said Douaidy. “Despite all the obstacles and the difficulties, [the last ten years were crowned] with big achievements that have led to a much stronger financial situation. 2005 is Phase Two in the life of the company. It will allow the company to grow on a much stronger basis because the fundamentals that were strong in the beginning remain strong and are now even stronger.” Indeed, by most accounts, Douaidy’s estimation is correct.

Solid performance

Although Solidere’s 2004 annual report is still to be released later this month, the audited financial results for 2004 made public at the beginning of April provide exactly the kind of performance data points that Solidere always said it could generate – if it was just given the time and the good graces of geopolitical events. At least for the moment it seems, geopolitical events are in fact cooperating. And Solidere has certainly put in the time over the past decade. As Douaidy (the trained accountant and pitch man) is quick to point out, 2004 saw the country’s largest single company post its best after tax profit gain in the last five years – $54.1 million or an amount nearly triple that of 2003.

Most significantly, however, the underlying dynamics were strong. Solidere said it generated its highest sales level in a decade in 2004 – $180 million in all or nearly $100 million better than last year. Rental revenues from leased properties also came in strong at $18.6 million, up from $15.4 million in 2003. And the company’s borrowing level dropped substantially – from $320 million in 2003 to $234 million at the end of 2004 – leaving a reduced debt to equity ratio of 13.9%.

“Our plans are to continue with sustained increases in sales, not necessarily at these levels [158,000 square meters in 2004] but not less than 100,000 to 120,000 square meters of built up space,” Douaidy explained. Of course, even though the sales numbers provided the most fodder for celebration, the performance of the company’s share price – especially in the aftermath of the Hariri assassination – have also played a crucial role in supporting Douaidy’s claim that Solidere is moving inexorably forward with a sustainable, winning formula. Indeed, as was widely noted in both the international business and political pages, the company’s stock registered only a temporary hit after Hariri – Solidere’s founder and most visible backer – was killed in the BCD he helped to build.

The quick rebound of the stock price to just below its pre-February 14 level provided strong evidence for some observers that investors both believed in Solidere and, more importantly, believed in the long-term viability of the entire country.

“We are even now having regional investors coming to Beirut,” Douaidy added proudly. “Even during the last two months, those who were negotiating with us did not stop negotiating with us and in fact a certain number of deals have emerged from these negations and some of them are being signed presently.”

Thus freed, somewhat, from the political situation that gripped the rest of the country, Solidere registered a daily average of 216,388 shares traded on the Beirut Stock Exchange during the tumultuous first quarter of 2005 – up a robust 515% from the same quarter last year. What’s more, the stock price ended up closing out 8.36%percent higher for Class A shares and 9.87% higher for Class B shares compared to fourth quarter 2004. In London too, where Solidere’s global depository receipts are traded, the receipt price rose to its highest level in six years by the end of March 2005.

Of course, a key reason for the rise in both the stock price and the overall trading activity lies in last June’s successful initiation of a land-stock swap program that raised $73 million in 2004.

But another very visible indication of public confidence in Solidere – and Solidere’s own confidence in both itself and Lebanon – came when the company decided to go ahead with its plan to list on the Kuwait Stock Exchange March 8.

“We thought [these actions] would give us a much wider investor base,” said Douaidy. “Last year when we did [the land swap program] we felt as though the share price was trading at a severe undervalue….both this and the listing on the Kuwait Stock Exchange have achieved their objective by increasing our sales and requiring investors who are using the program to go and buy shares on the market,” which has also raised the stock price, he noted.

On with the Souks

Although plagued by prior delays, Douaidy said the much anticipated Souks project, which envisions a large pedestrian area filled with shops and restaurants, was finally ready to go forward immediately. The permits have been secured and all underground facilities, including the parking, have been completed. As a result, even though the January start date was not met recently, Solidere is still aiming for the Souks to come online in 2006. And when this happens, rental revenue, already rising, is expected to double with the 100,000 square meters of floor space that will be available.

Adding to the positive growth outlook over time, Solidere is also set to ramp up its land preparation and infrastructure efforts in the massive reclamation area situated near the Beirut Port and Marina.

“In the next three to four years we will start selling land on the reclamation space because today [this area] is not ready yet,” said Douaidy. “There are still waste treatment [facilities] that need to be finished. Subsequently we will do the infrastructure for the reclaimed land. Then we can start with the marketing of the reclaimed land.”

Noting that the price for built up space had increased from $950 per square meter to as high as $1,400 per square meters over the past several years, Douaidy was quick to point out that the 1.5 million square meters of land reclamation would likely be a crucial component ensuring Solidere’s profitability well into the second half of Phase Two.

During this time though, he added, Solidere intends to pursue somewhat of a different approach than during the last Phase.

Laying down foundations

“We prepare the land, we prepare the design. This is what is happening…[It allows] developers to practically start within a short period of time. This is the kind of thing we really want to do: develop the concept and sell the idea rather than do the development ourselves. We will continue to do one or two developments here and there but we would like to encourage third party developers to do it.”

Of course, despite the recent positive balance sheet, growing investor interest and the much-anticipated movement on several development fronts, risks remain – as is true for the entire Lebanese economy.

Most significantly for Solidere, when Hariri was assassinated, the company didn’t only lose its largest single shareholder, it also lost its most powerful proponent in government circles. Of course, in Lebanon, such influence goes a long way towards solving the routine, and sometimes not so routine problems of bureaucracy and competing private interests that may not just vanish with Syria’s withdrawal. As one recent report noted, before Hariri left office last year he prevailed on the Cabinet to pass a number of critical resolutions that freed Solidere to act in a more expeditious, and profitable manner. In the end, a total of 24 projects with a total value of more than $500 received the necessary permits to move forward.

Douaidy is confident that Hariri left Solidere in “safe waters.” But even though his political stature will be sorely missed, April 26 and the events that led up to it, should be well for Lebanon and Solidere.
 

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Basil Fuleihan 1963-2005

by Peter Grimsditch
written by Peter Grimsditch

If former Premier Rafic Hariri provided the grand plans and vision for how he thought Lebanon could and should grow into a modern prosperous state, Basil Fuleihan injected the precision, the research, the experience and the knowledge to put those ideas into practice. Although most recently remembered as a deputy and former Minister of Economy and Trade, Fuleihan was also recognized as a brilliant academic from the moment he graduated with distinction from the American University of Beirut in 1984 as a Bachelor of Arts in economics.

He was just 41 when he died in the Percy military hospital in Paris, 64 days after the February 14 murderous blast at St Georges that claimed the life of his friend and patron Hariri, as well as 19 others. Before becoming a deputy on Hariri’s Beirut ticket in the 2000 elections, Fuleihan had carved out a career and a reputation as a thoughtful, competent and thorough behind-the-scenes adviser on economics.

His first degree at AUB was succeeded in the following year by a Master of Arts at Yale University in International and Development Economics and the meticulous study continued until he was awarded a doctorate in economics at Columbia University in 1990.

Fuleihan worked as an adviser to the executive director of the International Monetary Fund and was well on his way to a dazzling career on a global level when he returned to Lebanon to become an economic adviser to the Ministry of Finance in 1993. And for six years until entering Parliament he passed on his infectious enthusiasm for the subject as an economics lecturer at his old university, AUB.

It was in large part down to Fuleihan’s patient homework on the subject that Lebanon was able to tap the international markets for cheaper eurobond loans to begin the process of reducing debt costs and, also in his role as an adviser to the finance ministry, he was responsible for devising reforms of the Customs administration, land registration and internal training.

Yet it was not until he became a minister that Fuleihan was in a position to publicly claim credit for his work. He was the lead negotiator for the country’s entry into the EuroMed Association Agreement. He argued persuasively – and successfully – that Lebanon should have a privileged position as far as tariffs were concerned until its economy was strong enough to withstand open competition. He also played a major role in formulating the economic plans submitted to the Paris II talks that resulted in an easing of the burden of debt service and led to the slashing of interest rates. And he took up the causes of copyright and consumer protection, issues both at the core of encouraging investment in Lebanon by major foreign companies.

But Fuleihan didn’t claim credit publicly. He wasn’t that sort of man. Totally devoid of the arrogance that plagues many politicians, Fuleihan had a ready smile, a friendly hello for all who crossed his path and a fluency on matters concerning his ministry that never deviated into the meaningless obscure generalities beloved by so many politicians.

A close and faithful ally to Hariri, Fuleihan was by his side to the last. He was a passenger in the premier’s car when it was blown to pieces.

This gentle, loving husband and father is an enormous loss to his widow Yasma, and their two young children, Rena and Rayan, to whom we extend our deepest sympathy. Our condolences, too, to Lebanon. Men of talent, integrity and honesty, like Fuleihan, are rare.

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The Buzz

Better to be safe than sorry

by Marianne Stigset
written by Marianne Stigset

The February 14th attack, followed by the bombings in New Jdeideh, Kaslik, Sad al-Boushrieh and Broumana have seen increased demand for private security services from banks, shops, hotels, malls and large institutions, as well as real estate developers with substantial works in progress.

Unfortunately, pro-active security remains a novel concept in Lebanon. The current “boom” is still largely ad hoc, temporary and price-sensitive. In fact, security providers say, it’s a regional thing. Lebanon conforms to the Middle East pattern of taking a reactive, rather than preventive approach to private security.

“This is the trend,” says Jinane Zod, assistant managing director of Zod Security. “People only react once the damage is done.”

Although not exactly a revolution, industry insiders believe there might be a gradual shift towards a more preventive-oriented approach to security.

“The measures we are taking now are permanent,” says Shoughari. “It’s a trend happening throughout the Middle East – just look at the last bomb attack which hit Cairo. We are now faced with a new environment, locally, as well as internationally. The enhanced security measures are here to stay.”

Yazigi believes it is too early to tell whether the panic attack which hit the Lebanese will result in any long-term changes, but does detect a trend in the region towards greater security awareness.

One security firm that spoke to Executive, admitted that his company witnessed a 5% increase in demand after February 14th but that figure soon rocketed to 100% after the Jeddah bomb attack.

Demand has mainly focused on electronic surveillance, monitoring systems more than security guards and Youssef Mohamed Beydoun, vice-president of the Syndicate of Security and Safety Professionals in Lebanon and general manager of Beydoun Fire and Security, estimates that overall sector business has spurted by 30-35%.

“Most of this new demand is coming from the banks,” he said. “It has now become a priority for everyone to increase their security coverage, but banks in general are especially afraid of robbery and hold-ups due to the current political and economic climate.”

Demand for security guards has also surged. They are an easily deployable form of security service, especially when it comes to carrying out vehicle and personal checks, yet they still trail behind electronic surveillance systems in terms of what is wanted in today’s market. Security firm, Protectron, has estimated the hike in demand for security staff to be at around on normal business 25%, although it admitted that tight budgets force many companies to employ their own staff in a security role.

And maybe this is why the industry sees the employment of extra security guards as a stopgap measure. “We can already see a drop in demand,” says Lotfallah Yazigi, president of Securitas in the Middle East. “It was a reaction to panic. People [in office and apartments] would get together and chip-in for a guard to watch the premises for two weeks to a month, but contracts wouldn’t go much longer than that. It was a quick-fix for peace of mind but most people can’t afford this type of service in the long-run.”

Many major banks, hotels large companies and institutions, such as the Phoenicia InterContinental, which has incurred minimal costs in upgrading an already comprehensive security infrastructure, already have adequate systems in place as part of their commitment to comply with international standards and regulations issued by their head offices and who systems and procedures are regularly assessed by external consultants.

“We haven’t hired more people,” says Jana Sleen of the Safir Heliopolitan hotel. “What we have done is increase the number of security guard shifts and tightened security measures, especially with regards to all cars coming into the hotel. Half of our staff is from Protectron and the other half is our own staff. But otherwise, we already had cameras in place everywhere.”

The Beryte Hotel reported to have increased security staff by four, at an additional cost of $3,000 per month, to which will be added the installation of surveillance cameras, at $2,000-3,000.

“It’s an additional cost, but one that everybody has to incur right now,” says Jihad Shoughari, operations manager for the hotel. “After the attack, the army and the police went around to all the hotels in the surrounding area and asked for the films of the surveillance cameras. We have now in the process of ordering 3 or 4 more.”

But it is the banks and shops – for obvious reasons – that have had to burden the cost of maintaining confidence among their client base. Byblos Bank has retained the services of the international Group 4 Total Security, while ABC’s popular Mall in Achrafieh has hired 20 new security guards, at an estimated $7,000 a month, and is reportedly in the process of installing a new surveillance camera system. Supermarkets Monoprix and Spinneys have also committed themselves to assuring their customers with cursory vehicle checks.

Universities, embassies and international organizations have for their part made few requests for additional security services. Virtually all embassies have their security equipment sent to them from their respective countries and are prohibited from purchasing any local products.

The UN, whose offices in central Beirut were reinforced with cement blocks and sandbags following the attacks, claims this was a measure that had long been in the pipeline.

“We asked the government two years ago to make this arrangement around the building, because the UN building in Beirut was non-compliant with international regulations that have been established for the institution – it had nothing to do with the attacks,” says Elias Daoud, head of security for the UN building. “Otherwise, nothing has changed.”

Despite the recent hike in demand for security services, some industry insiders are not convinced that it will necessarily entail an overall increase in the quality and profitability of the sector. According to Haled Jaber, general manager for Security Engineering, there are no rules in Lebanon governing security services. “We tried to push for this through the creation of a syndicate, but it turned into a forum for social events. Every company now has its own standards. We now have a lot of security providers in Lebanon, probably some 100-150, but out of these, I would say there are only 10 which are really professional, offering high quality services and products.”

“Right now the market is booming, but it’s not really profitable,” said one manager of a security company offering, “human guarding”. “Salaries remain low, contracts are offered on a short-term basis. A lot of people working as guards view it as temporary employment, it’s not one they invest in to make a career out of.”

Partly in response to this lack of regulation and partly – or mostly – in response to the recent events in Lebanon and the region, Securitas will be opening the Swiss Academy for Security in Lebanon in May – a first for the region – to train professional security guards at every level.

And who said there was lack of job creation in Lebanon?
 

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Business

Conflicts of Interest

by Michael Young
written by Michael Young

In April, New York’s Columbia University issued a report that, while focused on a matter related to its Middle East studies program, may end up having a broader impact on the study of the region in the United States. More specifically, what occurred at Columbia highlighted the uneasy relationship between education and public funding, and whether universities can use tax dollars to advance what, to critics at least, are ideological agendas.

The Columbia story revolved around whether Middle East studies professors (principally Joseph Massad and Hamid Dabashi) had abused their position by intimidating students, but also by imposing their pro-Palestinian sympathies in the classroom. When the university administration initially failed to respond to some students’ complaints, the latter made a film documenting their grievances, which was produced by a pro-Israel outfit known as the David Project.

Spurred into action by the film, Columbia appointed a panel to look into the students’ accusations. However, this only led to new controversy when, as a New York Times editorial put it in early April, the administration appointed “one member who had been the dissertation adviser for a professor who had drawn criticism and [appointed] three members who had expressed anti-Israel views that, critics allege, might incline them to soft-pedal complaints.” While the panel report was subsequently considered objective, the university had merely created a new point of contention in order to end another.

The Columbia hullabaloo will not go away easily, largely because it has become so deeply politicized. As Massad told a Times interviewer, “I am simply an entry point for right-wing forces that want to destroy academic freedom.” Massad and his allies believe the issue is whether they can continue to defend the Palestinian cause on U.S. campuses in the face of what they consider a pro-Israel onslaught. For supporters of Israel, the issue boils down to whether the university is the right place to advance, often aggressively, a particular ideology, particularly one which many of them dislike.

There is no consensual answer on either side. However, there is a legitimate protest that has continued to dog the debate, namely whether it is up to the public to continue financing, through Title VI of the National Education Act, Middle East studies centers in American universities where the ideological disputations are taking place. The act, passed in 1958, was designed to allow public funding for area studies on the grounds that the added knowledge could served American national security interests. Partly, this meant that scholars would more readily take one issues relevant to U.S. foreign policy. Over time, however, as the Israeli-American scholar Martin Kramer wrote in his influential pamphlet Ivory Towers on Sand, an indictment of U.S. Middle East studies, the funding became “a secure semi-entitlement” where many academics gradually came to reject the very principle of Title VI funding, namely collaborating with the government on policy issues.

Instead, funded Middle East centers began resisting official efforts to take advantage of their expertise by arguing that academic freedom demanded drawing a clear line between government and university. This self-imposed isolation, in turn, made government less reliant on scholars. Kramer quoted a 1981 Rand report on Middle East studies as saying: “We found in talking with faculty at area centers that their own training often makes it difficult for them to translate scholarly research into an applied format useful to policymakers.”

This perceived irrelevance effectively marginalized Middle East studies centers in American policymaking circles, to the advantage of more practical think tanks. Yet as French Middle East scholar Gilles Kepel recently warned in the Financial Times, “This battle, over the ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ approaches to teaching the region’s politics, history and culture, has already caused considerable damage to academia and is now jeopardizing U.S. ability to decipher a complex area in which America is deeply engaged.”

Meanwhile, the notion that academic freedom meant taking money from the government while giving nothing in return proved unsustainable. That’s why the House of Representatives recently passed the International Studies in Higher Education Act (which is currently being debated in the Senate), to provide greater oversight over federal funding to study centers. Many Middle East academics have reacted by crying “censorship”, and Massad’s insistence that both he and academic freedom were being targeted by “right-wing forces” was directed both at the House legislation and at people like Kramer.

There is little evidence for the charge. The House act protects against anything that would “mandate, direct, or control an institution of higher education’s specific instructional content, curriculum, or program of instruction.” However, if one mistrusts government, doesn’t it make more sense to simply forego its money and search for “independent” funding in the private sector? In that way, disputes like those at Columbia would be less about “censorship” and more about actual competence and significance.
 

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Economics & Policy

Talking Economics

by Thomas Schellen
written by Thomas Schellen

There could not be a greater difference of mandates for two successive governments in any country’s history. The current cabinet of Prime Minister Najib Mikati has been charged with terminating a protracted phase of managing Lebanon under a mixed set of priorities, wrapping up the past and handling one single, existentially important practical task: fair elections. For the next government, the responsibilities are overwhelming and broad. Nothing less than an entire new culture of governance is required, new accountability to the electorate and the national interest, new policies and new efficiencies must be developed.

While many areas demand a new approach, beginning with re-ascertaining of the state-defining monopoly of enforcing laws and maintaining internal peace, the practical test of governance effectiveness will be the management of the economy. Here, the competition of interests that ruled the past is in dire need to evolve into a broader competition of authentic interests, concepts, and, above all, competencies, where solutions for national economic challenges are sought, based on a concise understanding of facts, where goals are set and realities are addressed without impediments from hidden agendas and concealed untruths.

The contenders in the Lebanese public decision-making arena are presently formulating their agendas and establishing their positions. The spirit of founding new political parties is surging and a host of new and old political parties and individual contestants are drawing up their programs, which they want to deploy in managing the new Lebanon. Executive wanted to know what economic visions the leading individual and party contenders stand for, what socioeconomic priorities they have and how they aim to implement them. This month its speaks to Dr. Selim Hoss (Third Way), Carlos Edde (National Bloc), Nayla Mouawad (Independent), General (retd.) Michel Aoun (Free Patriotic Movement) and Dr. Ahmad Mallie (Hizbullah)

Selim Hoss: Third Way

With his training as economist and experience in government between 1998 and 2000, Selim Hoss describes himself today as a person active in politics without personal political aims. Hoss is affiliated with the Third Way.

In his economic vision, Hoss holds up the concept of a regional common market and far-reaching integration. Referring to the examples of the United States, China and the European Union, he argues that the Arab region has a stronger case for forming a united realm than the EU, which he calls the “most significant development initiative of the 20th century.” In Hoss’ perspective, a large, unified market is key for achieving a superior economy.

In the matter of the national debt burden, the former prime minister sees the Lebanese public debt under the perspective that no country is free of debt. Pointing out that while in office, his cabinet drew up a 5-year plan aiming to reduce the public debt burden from then 124% to 96% of GDP, Hoss emphasizes the formula of reaching a point where the rate of growth of GDP will be higher than the rate of growth of public debt.

In his view, no country today is free of debt and the focus should be on creating a virtuous economic cycle of development rather than attempting to reduce the debt. “At this point, we can say this year will be better than last and next year will be better than this. The position must be to put the country on the right track,” Hoss says. For this task, he would seek to initiate a new five-year plan aiming to instigate GDP growth and ultimately reach negative growth of the public debt.

In terms of managing the debt, he calls special attention to the unregistered portion of the public debt, such as government dues in social security, to health service providers and contractors. While considering foreign debt to be a potential source of external pressure and thus generally preferring domestic debt, Hoss concedes that the use of debt instruments is inevitable.

On the issue of fiscal revenue, the introduction of Value-Added-Tax (VAT) was one item in the original five-year plan of the Hoss cabinet in 1998. In consideration of the financial burdens that VAT caused for many low and middle-income earners, the politician sees customs duties and VAT as necessary but is averse to increasing either VAT or customs. Hoss favors going for direct taxes as much as possible and increasingly reach the richer classes with taxation.

In matters of international treaties and trade agreements, Hoss is supportive of Lebanon’s accession to WTO and the Euro-Med Agreement. On the Greater Arab Free Trade Area, which went into effect January 1, 2005, he notes that implementation needs to be honest. He considers protection of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) as important measure, without which Lebanon would loose a lot. The Lebanese law on banking secrecy he would uphold as much as possible under the constraints of the requirements by the international community, but not at any price.

Boosting key industries

In Hoss view, banking and tourism as leading economic sectors deserve further growth incentives because they can be developed effectively and with good results. Additionally, he would want to promote the development of the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. A key concern for him in relation to agriculture is that rural populations can utilize their productive capacities where they are and do not feel urged to migrate to the cities. Because of the fiscal situation, Hoss prefers private investment over subsidies as means to promote the development of economic sectors.

In Hoss’ policy, foreign investment should be strongly encouraged by continued free market environment, liberal labor laws and creation of special investment zones, which, however, should offer equal benefits to foreign and local investors. He is for privatization as a way to encourage foreign and local investments but frowns upon the concept of using privatization as means in trying to settle the public debt.

In the socioeconomic arena, Hoss proposes to tackle the unemployment problem mainly by reactivating the economy, fighting the recession, furthering the tempo of development and expanding the realm of technical education. He supports the transition from the current system of end-of-service indemnity payments to a national pension scheme but in the question of increasing the minimal wage, he calls for a careful study of the matter and its impact on finances before undertaking such a step.

The veteran politician agrees that corruption has impeded Lebanon’s development severely and emphasizes that democracy is identifiable by accountability, of which the country has had a blatant lack. He considers it a major objective for Lebanon to combat corruption by improving democratic practice.

Carlos Edde: National Bloc

The reduction of corruption and financial waste and the introduction of sound administrative policies are cornerstones in the economic vision of Carlos Edde, leader of the National Bloc.

Coming from a liberal perspective, the party’s policy is built around affirmation of economic opportunities. Thus the National Bloc puts the rebuilding of credibility of institutions and political leaders on top of its agenda for change, to be followed by taking initiative to solve the problem of wastage. Based on fair elections, the party’s recipe for governance would be to build a government on the grounds of credibility and competence. According to Edde, this does not imply a government of technocrats but of people who have at the same time political stature and sufficient understanding of Lebanon’s problems to carry out policies.

Emphasizing personal integrity of politicians as requirement of utmost importance, Edde says that the National Bloc’s approach to leadership also underlines transparency and the open description of problems and, if necessary, bitter solutions.

In matters of the public debt, Edde affirms that it is most urgent to address the debt of 200% of GDP, which in his opinion the country could only sustain because it’s banking sector is also of very large size. In managing the debt, reduction of wastage in the public system plays a priority role for the party, along with measures to raise funds from privatization. Further tools in dealing with the public debt should include using of the gold reserves and research into a possible devaluation of the artificially overvalued Lira.

While Edde would consider depreciation of the Lira at the current juncture to be Russian roulette and proposes looking at organized devaluation as a means to promote investments, his long-term strategy would be to float the currency, under the precondition that an accountable government is firmly installed.

Indirect taxation

Also on the revenue side, the National Bloc policy emphasizes to reduce public wastage before looking to increase taxes. Under reasons of practicality, Edde suggests to rely strongly on indirect taxes instead of having “an army of tax agents”. Albeit unfair in socioeconomic terms, indirect taxes are easier to collect and can help in attracting investors to Lebanon as tax haven, is Edde’s rationale. Personally a non-smoker and non-drinker, he would very much favor taxing alcohol and tobacco products at substantial rates. Customs duties should be maintained as source of revenue in absence of direct taxes, but not to the point of making smuggling too profitable.

Membership in international treaties WTO and Euro-Med is supported by the party under the perspective that it not only promotes economic development but also opens the country more strongly to ideas, good laws, and quality standards. The party is also pro-GAFTA but cautions that Lebanon needs some protection against dumping of agro products. The National Bloc aims to create an environment where other countries can be at ease in dealing with Lebanon, which includes safeguarding of IPR. According to Edde, the banking secrecy law is a sentimental issue for the party, because it spearheaded its introduction in Lebanon. Today, however, he would seek to have it meet international standards and be amended in ways to make it impossible for civilian or military public servants to stash away funds illegally and also oblige persons wanting to stand for office to reveal their relevant financial information before assuming public responsibility. Edde reasons that banking secrecy cannot be allowed to facilitate corruption and it was never meant to do so.

In selecting economic sectors for development, the National Bloc includes banking on its list because of its high degree of development and additional potential. Special priority in Edde’s view, however, should be allocated to becoming a country that attracts outsourcing of services because of its skilled labor force and other advantages. The party wants to support tourism and the potential for IPR sensitive industries to be based in Lebanon, such as publishing. The agricultural sector should receive incentives for shifting from commodity produce to top end and higher value products. A specific resource that Lebanon should develop in the opinion of the National Bloc is water, under the perspective of supplying it profitably to the region.

For Edde, the public sector should not play a large role in the economy but he supports to implement investment incentives for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), saying that one cannot expect people to invest in Lebanon because they like Lebanon. In such incentives, the party agrees to full freedom for movement of capital and profits and views the creation of special investment zones favorably but would not concede to rights for unlimited foreign ownership of real estate.

Michel Aoun: Free Patriotic Movement

Preparing to return to Lebanon from Paris, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) outlined for Executive his movement’s four main policies. The FPM intends to rebrand itself by creating a political party and introduce a program shortly after the arrival of the former general and head of government. For the purpose of this investigation, Executive retains the term FPM as descriptor of the political group.

In Aoun’s words, the economic recovery of Lebanon is one of four main objectives on the FPM agenda for Lebanon in the process of building a new state. The first objective is to reinvigorate political institutions and confine political debates within national institutions. The second objective is to restructure the national security forces and undertake a fundamental purge of this institution in order to enable it to safeguard the country from any drift towards instability. The third objective is to reform the judiciary as a precondition for economic recovery. The fourth objective is to devise a recovery plan for the economy.

Genuine reforms

In its economic vision, the FPM sees the departure of Syrian forces and intelligence units from Lebanon as giving positive signals to the market forces but warns these signals would not translate into genuine economic drivers unless genuine reform is put in place. As such, the FPM’s economic recovery plan entails a two-step approach of first addressing the public debt and encouraging growth.

According to FPM official and economic expert Sami Nader, the future party assesses the national debt as solvable after achieving a further reduction of the interest rate paid on the debt. Its economic policy aims to devise means that will increase the primary surplus, decrease the amount of the debt and create a framework and tools that will enable Lebanon to become a regional financial center that protects and catalyzes private initiative.

On the revenue side, the FPM regards the VAT and corporate tax rates as appropriate for the country, while it favors a lowering of customs duties. The central tool that the group seeks for increasing fiscal revenue is an enlargement of the tax base, so rather than increasing taxes to have more people pay.

In relation to international treaties, the group supports Lebanon’s membership in WTO, Euro-Med and GAFTA under a no fences, no borders philosophy. Intellectual Property Rights should be enforced in full and the Lebanese banking secrecy law should be maintained in compliance with international laws.

Besides finance and banking, the FPM favors to provide development incentives to enterprises in tourism, information and communications technology (ICT), media, and health care. Its means of choice in providing public support for development of economic sectors would be tax breaks and indirect subsidies, such as loan guarantees, in addition to empowering a strong financial market place.

Labor policies

On the socioeconomic front, the group follows a line of trusting in market forces to increase employment opportunities in combination with promoting market-oriented education, examples being computer training and capacity building in tourism. It is not in favor of an increase in the minimum salary and opposes any increase in public spending to provide employment but the FPM takes a positive approach to the presence of Syrian labor in Lebanon, provided that foreign labor is properly licensed and regulated. The group supports a reform of the social net, with introduction of tiered pension and social care system. It also is for privatization, naming utilities and telecommunications as primary candidates.

According to Michel Aoun, the FPM was not in agreement with late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s economic policies, because they hampered economic development and created high costs by pouring money into unproductive projects. He would seek to cooperate with any party willing to do so and also rely on technocrats but emphasizes that a clear plan and political leadership will be required for facilitating reform in Lebanon and that the reform is likely to involve a change of both policies and people. In Aoun’s words, “I think there will be radical change, we cannot work without morality, we cannot work without technology, we cannot work without honesty. Many things have to be established in our society. The corruption was generalized (sic) in our system and accepted by society. We have to establish some morality.”

Nayla Mouawad: Independent

As member of parliament and contender for the Lebanese presidency (she is the widow of the assassinated ex-President Renee Mouawad), Nayla Mouawad has been a strong individual power in the political arena and leader of the Qornet Shehwan opposition gathering. In preparation for the future, the MP is currently pursuing the realization of long-held ambitions to form a nation-wide political party with representation from all communities.

In the views of Mouawad and her associates in the founding a political party, human capital and globalization are important guideposts. She maintains that a well-established slogan for Lebanon should be that human capital is the fuel of its economy but that the impact of this slogan has been eroded in the past three decades and must be restored through improving education and vocational training. A core target in her economic vision is to bring Lebanese society and Lebanese individuals to interact with globalization and create an environment to empower and free society and let individuals fulfill their potential, maximizing the competitive advantages of Lebanon in a post-industrial global society.

Cleaning up public sector

Further priorities are slimming of the state’s administrative machinery, the elimination of corruption and clientele structures in public administration and a review of expenditures for the armed forces.

In dealing with the economic situation and addressing the public debt, Mouawad admits that the debt is heavy by any standards but manageable by economic growth, for which she sees great potential in attracting foreign and expatriate Lebanese investors if the cost of government is reduced and corruption is curbed. Efforts to contain the debt would have to begin with its stabilization and promotion of economic growth, lest attempts of debt reduction could lead to greater impoverishment of the population. While she would have preferred floating the Lebanese currency several years ago and considers a high share of debt in foreign currency to carry elements of danger, she regards the decision for using foreign currency debt instruments as irreversible under present circumstances and would not seek to liberate the Lira.

For discussing fiscal reform and ways to increase fiscal revenue through specific taxes, Mouawad’s team would require more data, which have not been available until now. In general terms, the group’s policy for fiscal reform would include a progressive scheme of taxation on individual incomes for a certain period of time. Indirect taxes should play a lesser role and customs duties should be phased out gradually over 10 to 15 years, in order to facilitate Lebanon’s integration in international trade agreements.

In context of her globalization-oriented vision, Mouawad stands for accession to the WTO as quickly as possible and for a very strong relationship with the EU under the Euro-Med agreement. She strongly advocates adoption of the laws required for WTO accession, noting that they had been initiated by late former minister of economy, Basil Fuleihan, and undertaking a campaign to explain these legislative initiatives to the public. In relation to GAFTA, Mouawad seeks a gradual implementation of the Arab trade area. The total implementation of Intellectual and Industrial Property Rights carries a leading function in her policy, which envisions a capacity of Lebanon that could rival that of Israel in generating revenue from IPR. Mouawad’s team sees the preservation of Lebanon’s banking secrecy law as important and supports the law as it stands after having been modified to meet international standards for prohibition of money laundering.

In promoting economic development, Mouawad would prioritize substantially lowering the cost for telecommunications in order to enable the internet and communications infrastructure to serve as basis for economic growth in businesses such as call and contact centers. ICT and new technology enterprises could be the main engine of job creation in Lebanon and provide economic opportunities in all parts of the country. After ICT and related enterprises, banking and health care would be sectors high on the list of priorities for economic development, along with agriculture.

In the area of privatization, Mouawad favors fast privatization of the electricity utility and creation of competition among telecommunications providers. She supports economic interaction with Syria and is an advocate of facilitating employment and earnings opportunities in rural areas, for which she sees a strong potential based on the experiences of the Rene Mouawad Foundation in rural production of high quality food products, namely olive oil, that could successfully be marketed internationally.

Dr. Ahmad Mallie: Hizbullah

Executive inquired with the Party of God, Hizbullah, about their economic policy and vision. When Dr. Ahmed Mallie, member of the party’s politburo, agreed to discuss the matter with Executive, he stated that the party appreciated the economic achievements of late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri but did not agree with all of his policies. Comparing Hariri’s economic approach to that of European politicians Margaret Thatcher and Silvio Berlusconi, Mellie elaborated that the Shiite party was oriented more strongly to provision of services under the theme of social justice. Mellie also confirmed that Hizbullah is looking at increased participation in governmental responsibilities after having been preoccupied over many years with its leading role in the Lebanese resistance.

On the matter of economic policy and the party’s positions on specific development issues, Executive subsequently communicated on two separate occasions with Hizbullah media liaison Hussein Naboulsi who informed us at our first attempt that the party does not presently have an economic policy or an economic expert authorized to speak on behalf of Hizbullah. In response to a second inquiry one month later, Naboulsi again related that the party is not ready to discuss issues of economic policy with Executive.

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Special Section

Industry Vox Pops

by Executive Editors
written by Executive Editors

Joint ventures with European companies are one method by which Lebanese manufacturers can enhance their position in Middle Eastern markets. Executive asked Roger Dib, director of Near East Consulting Group and partner in a joint venture between Italian kitchen manufacturers Snaidero and Indevco Group, how he evaluates the impact of the recent events on joint venture prospects for Lebanon and what risks he sees in the current situation.

Roger Dib

I have just signed a new agreement with a leading Italian manufacturer for distribution of their products and manufacturing of one line in Lebanon. They have not hesitated to come because the Lebanese market is only one of 10 to 12 points of distribution for them. However, if I couldn’t provide distribution in the region, it would be difficult. They seek distribution; we seek manufacturing, that’s the deal.

European companies are squeezed today. They have to work hard on their products, going to the US, going to China, going to the world. We can do perhaps one thousand times more sales for them with the same effort than they could themselves. Lebanese companies with distribution possibilities thus have a lot to offer to mid-sized European or Italian companies that don’t have the resources or interest to develop these markets. But you have to have critical mass to have a joint venture, meaning you need a network, a product, capabilities, and references, and it helps if you can throw in capital when seeking to attract know-how from EU firms.

In this, we are feeling much encouraged by what is happening in the Gulf. Gulf markets are being hit by a double positive stream of money now: the repatriation of funds and the revenue from the oil price increases, which has not percolated into the economy yet. However, it is very difficult to penetrate those markets if you have a product of solely Lebanese manufacture, unless it is a cultural product with distinct Lebanese flair, such as specialty coffee or a well-known fashion designer brand like Elie Saab.

Lebanese companies will have to have a strategy. What I worry about is that Syria is our gateway for exports to the Gulf. Thus I worry about what is happening in Syria and especially about racism that is directed against Syrians here. Racism should be behind us. The chambers of commerce and the professional associations should do much more in speaking out against racist violence directed against Syrian workers here. We need these people, and we cannot ignore that Syria is our gateway to anywhere.

The construction supplies manufacturers work in a field where the presence of Syrian labor is extremely high. Executive asked Elie Mattar of the marble and stone company Elie Mattar & Fils (EM), if an immediate impact of the events in February and March was felt on his enterprise, and about his outlook on investments, labor developments and business activities in the remainder of 2005.

Elie Mattar

For the time being, I will not do any investment. This means I will not buy any stock unless I have already taken the job. If you buy stock in our field, it does not perish or depreciate in value over time. But I am not willing to buy stock now. If the current situation will affect me, this will happen within three to four months from now in case that no new projects were to start. If the situation will improve within two to three months, I think that I would not feel a negative impact, because projects that are in progress will not be stopped. For big new projects, however, investors and customers from Arab countries are very important.

In my business, we work with cutting and sculpting stone. I have a very modern CNC stone cutting machine, which can work a large number of identical pieces at unmatched precision. The price of a machine-produced piece is however 40% higher than if a worker carries the job out by hand. On about 70% of the construction sites that we were working on last month activities stopped temporarily when the Syrian workers went home. We estimate that 40% of the Syrian workers went back to their country. This could become a huge problem with everything, not only for my factory but also in the entire construction sector. Lebanese law says that you cannot bring in new workers from abroad.

Seven years ago, my workers were all from India. However, with Syrian workers, you don’t pay for a work permit, residence permit, mandatory health insurance, and a return ticket to go home once every three years. I must also say that Syrians are perfect for this work, they are clean workers and very good with their hands. I wish I could find a Lebanese worker. But they are very demanding. You can’t get a Lebanese person to carry stone from here to there.

Information technology had been touted as a hope for Lebanon’s industrial growth. Executive asked Nizar Zakka, director at the Professional Computer Association, how she assesses the impact of the developments after 14/2 on Lebanon’s Information and Communications Technology (ICT) industry, what her concerns were and if expects the operational climate to improve.

Nizar Zakka

As representatives of the ICT industry in Lebanon, we have been working for the past ten years on enhancing the image of Lebanon in the ICT sector worldwide. We believe that last year, we reached a point where our image was good in all terms. What image is now being projected is one of democratization but also of instability. This is a new weak point. This means our government and us now need to work twice harder to improve our image. Our business is based on human resources. Instability will lead us to export more brains than software.

In terms of achieving economic results, we feel that we were reaching the point of prosperity. We were in the middle of a jump forward and what happened set our sector back big time The ICT sector had explored three pillars to base our development on by working on Human Resources, achieving industry standards and certification, and focusing on taking advantage of Lebanese knowledge of business applications and our clients. Now the industry needs to address a new factor, instability, which had not been part of the planning at all.

We decided as private sector to do the best in the frame we can and gave up on expecting progress in regulations. As far as the political climate, we don’t see a mature political atmosphere. Nobody is caring about prosperity. We believe that our late prime minister, Mr. Hariri, was really the only person who cared about prosperity of Lebanon. We all want truth, we all want freedom, but we also want prosperity. Thirty-five percent of our software products are exported. We ask for the tone of political speeches to be lowered, in order not to damage Lebanon any more. We are working with the Arab world and they are not used to such language. The instinctive reaction to such talk in the region is being scared and reluctant to invest.

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Special Section

A hard summer for industry

by Thomas Schellen
written by Thomas Schellen

The economic impact of the current phase of uncertainty is weighing differently on different sub sectors in the manufacturing industry. Overall, the toll on revenues, as far as it exists in the realm of industry, is just materializing, or will only emerge several months further into the year when current orders have been filled. This gives companies, fearful of their business prospects, a narrow window of about one quarter in which the country has to return to stability – otherwise they will face many difficulties.

Many industrialists, however, see a positive future for manufacturing in Lebanon, provided, of course, political developments go smoothly. The accomplishment of a wave of civil freedom has shown in many precedents to stimulate demand and liberate previously stifled growth potential in an economy. In an environment of respectful interdependence with its Arab neighbors, Lebanon could benefit exceptionally well from a democratic spring and peaceful reforms in the Levant, because of the private sector’s knowledge of markets, easy geographic access and business acumen.  

When it comes to the industry sector, the main internal challenge is the nation’s ability to maintain a high level of civility and peace in the ongoing political disputes, especially during the upcoming elections. The securing of good working relations with Syria throughout the political review process poses the other big challenge. However, even assuming that all political processes proceed smoothly, it is becoming clear that a return to political stability in and by itself will not be enough to improve the lot of Lebanese industrial manufacturers.

In a number of respects, 2004 was a rather good year as industrial exports continued their rise in value from $1.44 billion for 2003 to $1.64 billion in 2004, an increase of 14.1%. In parallel, investments into production capacities, indicated by importation of industrial machinery, also increased from $109 million in 2003 to $142 million last year, a jump of almost 30%. 

However, with a share of those increases attributable to the strong euro, growth of exports and investments into machinery are not necessarily indicative of a massive gain in industrial productivity, which remains a core need for the sector. Analysts and industry representatives also still see the target markets of Lebanon’s industrial exports as being in need of further diversification. Exports to Europe, with the exception of the, in economic terms, atypical exports of mostly jewelry to Switzerland, must still be regarded as a development goal rather than an achievement.

In exports to Middle Eastern countries, which have to be the main staple of expansion-minded local industrialists in lieu of a large domestic market, Lebanon faces a curious situation of having high production costs when compared to the region’s lower income countries with big populations but also to the much more affluent economies in the Gulf, even where their per capita GDP is several times that of Lebanon.

Both in terms of labor and energy costs, it is acknowledged that Lebanon is at a disadvantage when compared to other Arab manufacturing locations. Between these costs and the high cost of funding, the competitive position of Lebanese industry has seen no radical improvements for at least five years. The contribution of industry to the economy remains at about 20%, and a recently published 2005 overview by the Chambers of Commerce and Industry describes the sector’s situation very much in the same terms as it was in 2003.

Given that a big slice of last year’s real GDP growth of about 4% originated from tourism, including the consumption demand created by the foreign visitors, and that a foreign-nurtured construction surge accounted for another important portion of growth, the demand outlook for 2005 is muted and industry seems in no position to count on large domestic demand growth.

Officials at the chambers of commerce said however that it is too early to see the eventual effect of the February/March period on industrial revenues in Lebanon beyond the immediate damages of the 14/2 blast and seven lost days of production. According to chamber experts, exports of manufactured goods could continue at good levels, as there is reason for a slump in regional demand for Lebanese products resulting from the current crisis over the nation’s political future.

Industrial manufacturers working in collaboration with European firms have a distinct chance to further improve their position if they have a critical mass consisting of a regional distribution network, proven skills and ability to contribute capital to a joint venture, assured industry consultant Roger Dib.

However, a deterioration of relations with Syria could throw a huge monkey wrench into the gears of Lebanese manufacturing industry. Apart from being itself one of the largest markets for Lebanese exporters, “Syria is the gateway to anywhere,” Dib said.

The latest month for which reference numbers on exports are available is January 2005, with total exports of $125 million. Of six Middle Eastern countries that received about 47% of Lebanese exports in January of this year, Syria accounted for 11% ($13 million) and four others – the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait – are land transport destinations via Syria. Turkey was the one major destination country in January, where land transit through Syria is not the only logical avenue for the bulk of exports. Thus, industrialists are of wide understanding that a closure of their borders with Lebanon by Syria would have a devastating impact on Lebanese trade.

In addition to Syria’s importance in reaching the export destinations most attractive to Lebanon, the sub sector of industry with the largest stake in easy-to-transport, high value-added exports harbors another massive fear over potentially devastating effects of domestic instability on regional business. This sub sector is the Information Technology industry with its high emphasis on delivering corporate software packages to customers in Arab countries.

As the manufacture of software products goes hand in hand with the provision of intensive after-sales services to corporate clients, regional decision makers would shy away from awarding contracts to Lebanese software manufacturers if political instability continued to cause any doubts over the ability of these companies to fulfill after-sales service contracts, the director of the Professional Computer Association, Nizar Zakka, told Executive. ”The people in our industry had a very bad month and everybody is worried about the future,” he said. “Today we don’t know where things will go. Our industry has a tolerance for fluctuating demand but if the cycle doesn’t accelerate after three to four months, the situation will be severe. It will become clear what the real effect is when the current contracts are fulfilled in a few months’ time.”

The pain that the information and communications technology sector is feeling over the current period is exacerbated by two exigent factors. Firstly, just a few days prior to 14/2, a joint venture of software multinational Computer Associates (CA) and Lebanese firm MDS Holding announced the opening of a call center in Beirut designed to serve CA clients throughout the Middle East with technical support.

Call centers, or contact centers, are today a huge economic phenomenon in serving corporations in technology, services, and manufacturing. In the past five years, the call center industry has grown exponentially in countries like India where the numbers of round-the-clock “seats” in contact center work places tallies at over 150,000. The Philippines, another leading growth country in the field, doubled their seats from 20,000 to 40,000 between 2003 and 2004, after achieving revenues of about $200 million in 2003.

At the launch of the CA – MDS joint venture for Lebanon’s first regional call center event, telecommunications minister Jean-Louis Qordahi announced that Lebanon was aiming to invite companies to establish call centers here and that the MOT had drafted specific “tariffication” to attract operators. He described the potential for such operations in Lebanon as “unlimited.” And although the new venture between CA and MDS started with only a handful of seats and qualifies initially as an inbound support center more than a contact center, the country satisfies important preconditions for developing a successful call center industry because of prevalent language skills, technical skills and service culture existing here.  

The new positive climate for private sector initiatives in ICT was also expressed in a recent survey on key IT trends in Lebanon’s PC penetration and internet usage. According to analysts SRI, who conducted the survey, “65% of Lebanon’s urban population has some level of use of computers”, and internet access is “in the ‘take-off’ stage with nearly one quarter of internet users getting their exposure to the technology in the last year alone.“

Such findings had heartened ICT companies in their expectations of renewed business growth for 2005 and beyond. The country’s sudden shift to political uncertainty hit the sector thus ever harder, by endangering fledgling opportunities and causing worries about a new slump in business in exports and at home. The latter concern is due to the fact that most corporate ICT customers in Lebanon consider investments into information technology as tool to enhance their business only when the need arises under favorable revenue developments.     

The second element is that this sector has been lambasted more than others by failures of the public sector to create a favorable environment for their operations. Based on the administration’s inability to institute the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA), reduce costs for internet connectivity and general communication by a meaningful margin, and establish an Information Technology zone, the PCA would not expect any new government to succeed in assisting the ICT industry. “We don’t believe that the next government will create the TRA. It will not create a tech zone,” said Zakka. “They are transforming an issue of prosperity into an issue of power. It’s a pie of which everybody wants a slice, and this won’t work. We don’t want them to help. The best way for them to help is really to leave us alone.”

With such fundamental distrust in the ability of any administration to instigate positive change, the question acquires urgency whether the next government of Lebanon will be able to address the need to make manufacturing in Lebanon more feasible and provide meaningful incentives to industry. Reduction of the price industry has to pay for electricity and other measures to lower the cost of production here have been long standing demands by the Association of Lebanese Industrialists. Irrespective of its composition, any new government tasked with the responsibility of steering the country after the upcoming elections will have to face the multiple challenges of improving public sector performance in support of economic growth, earning the trust of industry, and of carrying out a difficult reform process to remedy problems that have long plagued the country and put a strain on socio-economic relations. 

One of the issues looming large on the horizon is to make further progress in adapting Lebanon to European and WTO standards for industrial production, another is the need to devise and implement a strategy for ensuring the environmental compatibility of industry, including the relocation of manufacturing companies from irregular industrial zones to proper ones, better treatment of industrial wastes, and safeguarding of air and water quality.

In recent weeks, the issue of Syrian labor has been highlighted in many discussions. However, while numbers about the relations between Lebanon and Syria have been floated in the debate, these calculations appeared driven by political objectives and not by the desire to assess the real size and balance of gains or losses that the Lebanese and Syrian economies incurred from their relationship over the past decade.

In this debate, the issue of Syrian labor has been used to muddle the picture stir public opinion, using vague estimates and misstating the role of remittances by Syrian workers while neglecting to also account for example for the – far more weighty – importance of remittances from Lebanese expatriate workers in other countries for the Lebanese economy. Finding a solution for the presence of Syrian labor in Lebanon without replicating the erratic status quo where these workers are neither monitored in numbers nor covered by any social services will be a big challenge to any administration in the process of reforming both the relations with Syria and the shadowy aspects of the Lebanese economy.

In the meanwhile, however, Syrian labor remains important to Lebanese agriculture and construction but also to other sectors. As many industrialists assert, hiring of Syrian workers has a tradition here that precedes the presence of Syrian armed forces. Construction companies and suppliers of construction materials are among the first companies that will see problems mount if the current political crisis in relations with Syria carries on into the summer.

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State department

White House speaks with forked tongue

by Washington Correspondent
written by Washington Correspondent

The old Western cliché, “White man speaks with forked tongue,” may find application in current Bush policies as “White House speaks with forked appointments.” Condoleezza Rice at State, well received; John Bolton at the UN, bad move; Karen Hughes as ambassador at large, to win hearts and minds lost due to the war in Iraq; then Paul Wolfowitz – the architect of the war in Iraq – to head the World Bank, (and possibly lose those hearts and minds Hughes is supposed to win back). Can you say crossed signals or should we above all, beware of a wolf in sheep’s clothing?

Condi hits the ground running:

Still, President Bush’s vision of spreading democracy in the Middle East appears to be on a roll. Yes, Iraq remains a problem, but the rest of the region is moving as Bush’s second term policies are picking up momentum. Condoleezza Rice, who replaced Colin Powell, is the totem for this new era and she got off to a good start with the Europeans, patching up much of the damage caused by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld during the Iraq war period.

Condi has managed to bridge relations with “Old Europe” and her ground-setting tour for Bush went off relatively well. Even Rumsfeld was able to indulge in some rare public relation building during a visit to Germany, making light of his earlier comments saying it was the “old Rumsfeld” speaking at the time.

It is clear that the second Bush administration has adopted a different approach in dealing with foreign policy issues, realizing that the big issues of the day – fighting terrorism, preventing nuclear proliferation, and “spreading democracy” – can be achieved with more ease when working with the European than trying to go at it alone. Over the past few weeks, Bush has repeatedly referred to “our European friends.”

And now for something completely different: 

If Rice’s nomination as chief US diplomat was well received in Europe, John Bolton heading to the United Nations was received, well, like a bolt of lightning. This is the same Bolton who once said the top 10 floors of the UN could be removed and no one would notice.

Bolton is a firm believer of America first. Democrats and Europeans see his appointment as a contradiction to Bush’s change of policy adopted by the second term administration. Bolton worries both friends and foes. Eurocrats in Brussels see in Bolton a serious enemy. Politicians in Paris and Berlin think Bolton is suspicious of European motives. They say he believes there is a Franco-German aspiration to build a super power that would rival the United States. His nomination hearing on Capitol Hill is sure to create a storm. Stay tuned.

Counter Bolt:

So we lost some hearts and minds (not to mention bodies and souls) and now we try to win them back. Enter Karen Hughes, one of President Bush’s chief advisers, nominated to be Under-Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy. This underlines the importance the Bush administration is giving diplomacy and the country’s image around the world in its second term.

Hughe’s nomination, say analysts, is in response to the often-negative perception of the United States, especially in the Arab and Muslim world. Both Rice and Hughes acknowledged that US public diplomacy efforts needed fixing. Rice admitted that the United States must do ‘much more’ to confront anti-US propaganda and increase exchanges with the rest of the world.

“Hostility towards America has reached shocking levels,” a report by Edward Djerejian, a former US ambassador to Syria, pointed out, urging a complete overhaul of efforts directed at the Middle East. “Our interaction with the rest of the world must not be a monologue,” Rice said. “It must be a conversation.” Agreeing with the secretary of state, Hughes said, “US public diplomacy should be as much about listening and understanding as it is about speaking.”

In her new job, Hughes will have a lot of speaking and listening to do. Her assignment includes engaging with the Arab and Muslim world. Probably one her first hurdles will be to explain why Bush selected one of the main architects of the Iraq war to fight poverty.

Wolfie to the World Bank:

Bush’s nomination of Paul Wolfowitz, current deputy secretary of defense, to lead the World Bank has had the effect of a mini-tsunami. Bush sees Wolfowitz as a “compassionate, decent man who will do a fine job.” Much of rest of the world seems to disagree, including many within the organization. They see Wolfowitz as the man who initiated the Iraq war, and all the troubles that came with it.

True, Wolfowitz comes with an impressive resume, yet many argue that his record as number two at the Pentagon was far from impressive. He is staunch neoconservative, who as a scholar headed Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies in Washington before returning for the third time at the Pentagon, where he put together the blueprint to topple Saddam. His reasoning was that Saddam had large caches of weapons of mass destruction. It was also Wolfowitz who argued that Americans would be welcomed as liberators.

Curiously enough, despite accusations of being anti-Arab and biased in favor of Israel, the 61-year-old Wolfowitz has been dating Shaha Ali Riza, a Tunisian-born gender specialist who has handled the bank’s external relations on Middle Eastern issues. She may have her work cut out. “The mood in the Bank is like a cemetery,” confided one bank staff member. “Everyone who can leave will leave.”

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For your information

Fadi Khoury

by Executive Editors
written by Executive Editors

For the last 10 years, Fadi Khoury, owner of the once-resplendent St. Georges Hotel on the Corniche, has been fighting what he calls a relentless hostile effort by Solidere to swallow up his property. At the same time, he has been nurturing a dream of returning the hotel to its former glory. That dream, which Khoury claims had become close to realization, was shattered on February 14 by the massive seafront explosion that ripped the façade of his hotel, destroyed his offices, killed five members of his staff, buried him in rubble and – ironically – killed his nemesis, Solidere icon and former prime minister, Rafik Hariri. EXECUTIVE spoke to Khoury about the effect of the explosion on him personally, on his business, and on Lebanon as a whole.

What effect has the explosion had on you?

I can’t think. It’s too dramatic. It’s unbelievable. We hadn’t conceived that such savagery was still possible. We thought we had moved on. This is a catastrophe for us. It’s just like a tsunami. Five of our colleagues are dead, many are injured and the effects of the injuries will remain with them. This is what has affected us most. Then, there is the damage to the hotel and the things we were constructing here. We have effectively been set back 10 years … 25 years. This is worse than things 25 years ago.

Where were you when the explosion happened?

I was on the staircase coming out of the St. Georges beach club. There was a covered entrance – which was smashed in the blast – and I was in that entrance. I received a phone call and stopped to concentrate on the conversation. The girl I was seeing out said she was going up [the staircase to the exit]. She went across the road and was blown into the air. Somehow she didn’t die. She’s bruised and still in shock, but she wasn’t among those who were very badly hurt. The people who were in our office were very badly hurt.

What were your immediate thoughts?

It felt like the apocalypse. I can’t describe it. I thought we were being bombed from the air. The first blast actually trapped me in the sense that I had nowhere to run, but was not smashed down. The second blast smashed me to the ground; [I was] hardly able to breathe, but still alive. I tried to see if I could lift whatever was on top of me, but I couldn’t, so I slid up the other way, towards the wall. I got out between a thick tree and the wall. Then, they pulled out one of the guys [from the rubble]. Another guy had already been pulled out before I had got out. Then, I walked out and saw total drama out there. There was smoke. We couldn’t get to the offices and then I was told that most people were dead. I was told who was dead and I couldn’t imagine that anyone else was alive, but it turned out that three were alive – two very badly hurt and one somehow didn’t get hurt. He’s an old eighty-five year-old man, short. I think it went right over him.

What exactly did you see both in front of and inside the St. Georges?

There were burned cars, crowds of people shouting. The shocking thing was the people being brought out by the Red Cross – one woman’s eye was practically outside her face. The St. Georges itself was ravaged. Everything was on the ground. It’s amazing what an explosion like that does.

What did the explosion interrupt in terms of the development of the St. Georges?

We hadn’t been able to reconstruct the St. Georges hotel properly. We were rebuilding it, but in a funny sort of way because we didn’t have the right permits. We were just trying to get through. In the winter, we had planned on having a very nice beach for the summer. We were developing the beach activity – in conjunction with the hotel – more and more so that at least we would have something going, like a restaurant winter and summer. We were thinking of bringing the bar back on a refurbished ground floor. We were very close to deciding that things would go positively, that there would be a change because of the coming elections and so on. We imagined unveiling the hotel as a surprise. It was a question of days before we were going to bring down the veils and light it up, to say: ‘Look, it’s coming.’ Obviously, it would have taken another year to get things finished because we still needed to work on the inside, on the decoration, and so on. Now, I have been set back in a very, very dramatic way.

How much damage has been done?

We have lost everything we spent over the last 10 years. We have damage in the area of $15 million.

What does this mean for you?

After 10 years of being bullied, this is like being slammed on the head with a big piece of wood. I must admit that I am astonishingly reactive to catastrophes in the sense that they don’t get me down, but this has got me worried. I’m beginning to think that maybe I should sit back and think, because if they [government officials] want to see the St. Georges Hotel rebuilt, they had better start showing some very, very positive signs and start helping us out. They could start by changing their attitude. We haven’t seen a positive attitude at all. On the contrary, there has been no positive sign.

When I called the governor of the city of Beirut, he offered his condolences, etc…. I said: ‘Stop the nonsense and give me the permits.’ Then he started blabbering all sorts of excuses instead of saying: ‘Yes, sure, now I will make an effort.’ I think we should have people in the government who are going to rebuild [Lebanon] and stop filling their pockets and making money out of the poor wreck that this country is. That is what has been going on. Roads are being built but they cost 10 times more than they should and that is not helping the country’s economy.

This huge blow comes on top of 10 years of dispute with Solidere, as well as with a government you say has been blocking the redevelopment of the St. Georges. Why has this been happening for 10 years?

I can’t tell really and it’s not really a subject I want to dwell on because it has to do with issues that, under the current dramatic circumstances, I’d rather not revive. But everyone knows the story of the St. Georges and Solidere. We are enemies because they have decided to attack us. We are friendly to everyone who approaches us in a friendly way, but they came in an unfriendly way, trying to take over and monopolize the St. Georges bay. It’s ridiculous. It goes against history and against Lebanon. The St. George is there. It’s positive. It can help everybody. Solidere, the city of Beirut and Lebanon can take advantage of a rebuilt St. Georges – there’s no need for it to belong to one particular group or one particular lot of business people. I feel that more and more businesses are run by mafias these days. We don’t belong to mafias.

Why has this impasse been maintained even after the events of 14/2?

They [the government] are not their own masters. Why would someone not pick you up if you are hurt? There must be something else that scares him, because they are afraid of something, I suppose. I don’t understand. I haven’t seen anyone from the so-called opposition defending the St. Georges publicly. They have defended it in private. Lots of people have often said to me how sorry they were about the situation, but I have never seen an official have the guts to stand up. Hopefully, they are going to show some guts and stand up for what they believe in.

Why do you think no one in the opposition has stood up for the St. Georges? 

Most people are oppressed.

You say you are going to have to sit back and think. Given the dramatic circumstances surrounding your condition, the apparent continuation of your dispute and the huge financial blow you have suffered, is this conceivably the end of the road for the St. Georges?

It will never be the end of the road for the St. Georges. The St. Georges is part of Lebanon’s heritage. It will continue – with or without me. But I don’t think I will continue hitting my head against the wall if people keep the wall in my face. I will finally step back and rethink the whole thing from a different perspective and from outside this country.

How likely is it that you will actually step back and leave the country?

I am stepping back at the moment to look at the whole situation, but I have not decided to step back all the way and leave the country. I’m waiting to see some signs of a positive attitude from the government soon, so that I don’t adopt a totally negative attitude. I haven’t yet seen that attitude from the government. I note that neither the minister of tourism nor the president of the syndicate of hotel owners has bothered to come here. I find this particularly surprising and shocking – the least they can do is come by.

If you did step back as you put it, that would entail selling to Solidere, correct?

I have no idea. If I step back it will be to think and when I think I will let you know.

So there’s nothing you can say at this stage?

No. I don’t want to say anything that is aggressive. I am an aggressive person.

There is nothing concrete you can say now about the future of the St. Georges?

No. As I said very specifically, I intend to think and I need time and peace and that is not what I have been getting, because I have been busy with people and their health and their problems and my problems and putting things back into a running order. I haven’t had the time to step back and think. I will step back and think, probably up in the mountains, on the ski slopes, if there is any snow left.

What have you been working on since the explosion?

We will have the beach ready. Of course, people are not going to come now because of the situation, but it will be ready. I’m encouraging all the people concerned to carry on with the beach, to implement what we were doing before the explosion. We will have an air-conditioned restaurant here and most of the beach looking as pretty as possible, with plants. But apart from that, we’re not doing anything. As I said, I want to sit back and think. Also, we can’t move. It’s totally paralyzed. We want to have access to the other St. Georges building – which is something that can be done in controlled manner.

We are imprisoned here. We have no water, no electricity. No one asks if we are able to live or eat. We are totally nonexistent. It’s a no man’s land and they are keeping it this way. I understand that they need to do things in an organized way to complete the investigation. However, I am an intelligent man and I think in a mathematical way and I know for sure that there is a way for us to go to our other building and close the doors so that people don’t go inside and also to take out some of the things we need to put the beach back on its feet. They [the government officials] just say, ‘No.’ Nothing else. No explanation. Why should they explain? There are no people to respect or to take into consideration; they are used to people being bombed and killed and so on. They never said anything about our five dead staff until people found out about it and it became more public.

Why is this happening and have you been told how long will it go on for?

Not at all. Why should they tell us? This is a country of hooligans. Nobody tells you anything. The citizen does not count. The proof of that is how they bomb people. The current state of affairs is obviously because of some sort of security system but the people in the government have responsibilities. Their main responsibility is to help us feel comfortable. We don’t feel comfortable.

What has the damage to the country and the hotel and tourism sector been?

The damage to the country is devastating. It’s very nearly back to square one – back to the way it was during the war. The things you hear and observe do not indicate anything very hopeful for the next month. I’m not a tourist, but I wouldn’t walk around the streets of Beirut today. You never know. You’re better off staying at home for a while. So, imagine what the tourists think if they’re coming from England or other countries. I don’t think people are coming anymore. Not for a while. I have no idea about the exact state of the restaurant and hotel sectors but I imagine they must be pretty badly hit.

Solidere was your foe. Hariri, as the symbol of Solidere and prime minister of Lebanon, was your nemesis. The explosion has taken him out of the equation. How does that make you feel?

I’m very sorry about what happened to Mr. Hariri. I don’t believe Hariri was alone in being against the St. Georges. He must have had his reasons. I’d rather not go into that anymore. Solidere is an infernal machine. It’s a terrible machine and should be stopped, but lots of people don’t want it stopped because they must have some interests. People outside this country don’t want it stopped. I don’t think any one person is responsible for what’s going on.

What impact on the St. George’s relationship with Solidere will the death of Mr. Hariri have?

I don’t know. I haven’t analyzed that. I’m not even thinking about doing anything with the St. Georges anymore. I hope no one will continue supporting Solidere in illegal endeavours. Beirut is ours, not Solidere’s. It is the Lebanese people who have been ousted from their houses.

Have you had any dealings with Solidere since the explosion?

No, as I said I’m not dealing with anyone at this point. I hope that after this, everyone will think back and change their attitudes, and maybe we will all become friends.

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The Apprentice

by Executive Editors
written by Executive Editors

The Lebanese Broadcast Corporation (LBCI & LBC-SAT) has unveiled plans to launch a pan-Arab version of NBC’s hit business TV show The Apprentice, with Dubai substituting New York as the corporate jungle. The 15-part series is scheduled to air in October, a month after the premiere of Showtime and Al-Aquariya’s CEO show, based on a similar concept. The overlap prompted a recent media spat between two of the shows’ hosts, resulting in a communications shutdown by LBC on the subject. “There has been a problem with regards to The Apprentice and we can’t talk about it to the media anymore,” an LBC aide confided.

Yet according to CEO executive producer Ziad Batal from Media Group, the competition will only do the business good. “We welcomed this initiative – the press invented all sorts of animosities between us, when there was none. The Apprentice will help promote more of these shows, which helps everyone’s cause.”

Joining the ever-expanding line of reality TV shows in the Middle East, The Apprentice pits several contestants against each other in a bid to showcase their business savvy. Contestants are teamed up and made to solve a variety of business problems, negotiate deals and manage projects. The losing team of each challenge sees one of its members fired by business mogul Mohamed Ali Alabbar, who hosts the show. The lucky finalist will walk away with a senior $300,000 a year position at Emaar-Dubai, the leading real estate development company in the Middle East, of which Alabbar is the Board Chairman.

A FremantleMedia franchise, the new show follows the growing trend of high expense reality TV shows which have caught on the Middle East. Playing it safe by avoiding cultural sensitivity landmines, such as mixed-gender housing facilities or compromising behavior, the show ought to have little difficulty attracting a profitable sponsorship deal.

Sponsorship contracts for shows such as Star Academy and Superstar average the $4 to $5 million range, whereas CEO has secured a $750,000 deal with its presenting sponsor and $350,000 from its gold sponsors. Added to this are the 30 second advertising slots during airtime, sold on average at $10,000 for the reality shows.

Feltman urges action

Speaking exclusively to Executive before he left for the US, American ambassador to Beirut, Jeffrey Feltman, reiterated his country’s calls for Lebanon to address its World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations and use the recent window of opportunity for positive change to push through the necessary legislative reforms to encourage greater investment opportunities.

In terms of WTO membership, Lebanon has made scant progress. Three of six laws that are prerequisite for accession are still at the council of ministers. Feltman believes that Lebanon must seize the day. “The ball is in Lebanon’s court now; they have to get the framework passed. If momentum continues, then it can be built upon,” he said adding, “Our hope is that ministers in the new government would put their political clout behind the issue.”

The benefits are not insignificant and show that Lebanon genuinely complies with trade standards. “Free trade is important,” said Feltman. “It is a benchmark of trade policy.”

Feltman said that for any future government, fiscal reform and fiscal restructuring of the country is overdue. “New government can’t have continuity of policies from governments that preceded it. Reform is not popular but it is urgent,” he said hinting at greater investment opportunities. “There has been interest in Lebanon at the Department of Commerce and the US Chambers of Commerce, but without reform in the judicial system, a serious initiative to tackle corruption, and IPR as well as improving ICT infrastructure, telecommunications rates, Lebanon will not move forward.”

IPR in particular remains a key bone of contention. Feltman revealed that the US government is currently conducting a review of Generalized System of Preferences privileges and a revocation of these privileges is a possibility, meaning that many Lebanese goods would be lose their duty-free entrance to the US market. “IPR is an issue that Lebanon should be concerned about,” said Feltman. “It is one of the few countries in the world where there has been no strategy to address the problem in the long term.”

VISA

Credit card issuers Visa International have given another thumbs up in their assessment of the Lebanese market. In 2004, usage of Visa-branded credit and debit cards increased by 32% to 11.6 million transactions in total. The company was especially jolly about the fact that Lebanese cardholders had carried out 2.3 million of these transactions in retail spending at Points of Sales (POS).

The accumulative value of transactions was $2.08 billion for 2004, of which $300 million occurred at POS, an increase of 31 % over the previous year. It has been a strategy of the credit card company to strengthen the credit card culture in Lebanon and increasing usage of cards at the from issuer perspective more profitable POS.  

According to Visa International’s general manager for the Levant, Said Shuqom, Visa estimates their share in the Lebanese payment card market at over 50%. Considering that the number of Visa cardholders here has risen to about 553,000 at year-end 2004, this would put the total number of payment cards in the country at about 1 million. However, the numbers provided by Visa also showed that the vast bulk of cards are debit cards, with Visa Electron cards accounting for nearly 437,000 of the total. Full fledged credit cards of different classes under the brand number less than 30,000 and the top-tier segment of Visa Platinum and Business entails precisely 2,812 plastic carriers.

Arab countries, including the Levant, are currently among the fastest growing markets for Visa International. For further growth here, the company banks on increased market segmentation and new technologies, Shuqom said. The company assumed that the turmoil of the past two months had reflected upon the usage of credit cards in Lebanon but would not be able to quantify this impact for several more weeks. In light of the situation, Visa has halted all promotion campaigns and launches of new products for the first six months of 2005, he added.   

MECG

Investment Bank Middle East Capital Group (MECG) and automotive dealers Rymco last month completed a securitization deal representing the first significant act of financial engineering in the period after the assassination of Rafik Hariri. The complex arrangement entailed offering of certificates backed by automobile receivables from Rymco worth slightly over $20 million.

Under the transaction, described by MECG as the largest of its kind in Lebanon, the certificates issued by the investment bank were purchased by eight banks and firms in the financial industry. Certificates were split into a one-year and a two-year tranche with respective annual interest of 6.5% and 7.5%, plus a residual tranche of $8 million, which remains with Rymco and acts as buffer against eventually defaulting car loans as underlying securities.

To the participating banks, the arrangement offers good returns at a low risk while Rymco benefits from improved access to finance and stable cash flow. Rymco intends to implement further securitization increments over the next three to five years for a total value of $75 million. Earlier this year, BEMO Securitization, the investment-banking arm of BEMO bank, had closed a similar offering in collaboration with car dealers Bassoul Hneine.

The transaction also illuminated the cost that the finance industry had to bear under the impact of the Hariri assassination. Walid Mousallam, CEO of MECG, said that the partners in the securitization felt a sense of pride to have successfully completed the arrangement during this difficult period but also revealed that MECG reviewed the program after the assassination. Perceiving a higher short-term risk, the investment bank revised the size of the offering downward, taking it from $30 million to $20 million while significantly increasing the size of the residual tranche as over-collateralization from about 28% of the total to 40%. “It would have been a different deal a month ago,” he said. 

Chateau Makse

Akram Kassatly, owner of Kassatly Chtaura, the man who saw an opportunity for a locally produced alcopop and gave us Buzz, is now focusing on his first love. Investing $1.8 million into Chateau Makse – named after the Bekaa Village where the winery is located – Kassatly, who studied winemaking in Dijon in the late 60s, is joining the ranks of Lebanon’s $27 million wine industry. Expecting to produce 400,000 liters annually (roughly 500,000 bottles) the new winery, will be fulfilling a dream that was cut short in 1974.

“The war forced the company to abandon its winemaking ambitions and focus instead on the more stable concentrated syrups and non-alcoholic products,” explained Nayef Kassatly, Akram’s son, who added that Chateau Makse had already signed contracts with local grape suppliers until its own vines, of which 30 hectares have been planted, are ready for wine production. However, many within the industry say it will not be easy for a new winery, without its own vineyards, to establish itself. “There is huge demand this year. The Egyptians, Jordanians and even the Syrians are all coming to buy our grapes. They are demanding about 500 tons and this is around 25% of the independent grape growers’ harvest,” said one wine maker. “Good quality grapes will come at a premium.”

The winery will initially produce three wines retailing at around LL7,000 each: red, white and rose and, despite a local market dominated by Chateaux Kefraya and Ksara, Kassatly is confident that 50% of the production can compete in domestically, while France, the UK (Lebanese wine’s two biggest importers), the US, Japan and Sweden have all been earmarked as export markets, the penetration of which will be helped by Kassatly’s existing distribution networks. “With our know-how, infrastructure and marketing strategies, we believe the project is very promising in the long term,” he said.

EU pushes for E-commerce

Funded by a €1.7 million EU grant, E-Commerce in Lebanon (Ecomleb) aims to promote e-commerce in Lebanon and to formulate a complete set of laws and decrees necessary to facilitate online business and banking. This legal basket containing 10 draft laws should be ready to be go to parliament by June. “When these laws are passed by parliament,” said project manager Alain Jean, “Lebanon will have the most advanced and coherent legal framework in the Middle East, which puts it years ahead of other countries, such as Egypt, Jordan and Dubai.”

According to Radwan Habli, IT advisor to the ministry of economy, “in normal circumstances,” it will take between three months and a year for parliament to pass the bill. Meanwhile, Ecomleb is promoting the use of e-commerce through conferences, press releases, its quarterly journal and website, as well as a soon to be released CD-Rom on the leading e-commerce activities in the country.

So far, the digital way of doing business has not exactly taken the country by storm. A report published last February by the Beirut-based Stanford Research Institute concluded that: “despite high levels of computer penetration and reasonable degree of adoption and use of the internet, e-commerce is yet to gain ground in Lebanon. By the summer of 2004, only 9% of all Lebanese internet users shopped online.”

However, there are exceptions to the general rule, as companies such as Tripoli’s Hallab Sweets and Khan al Saboun, as well as online travel agency skileb have demonstrated promising results. According to Jean, as Lebanon is a service industry, it is about time the country hops on the bandwagon. “Just look at the figures,” he said. “In the USA, online retail revenues increased by 25% from 2002 to reach $60 billion and is expected to grow by an annual 19% over the next five years. In the EU, companies selling and people buying online has increased dramatically as well.”

(For more information: www.ecomleb.org)

Arak Piracy

Le Brun, arguably Lebanon’s most prestigious commercial arak, has spent $100,000 on a packaging facelift. The move comes after a swift and effective response last year to a rash of fake bottles of Le Brun, which is over 100 years old, that had found their way onto the shelves of small and medium sized outlets. Even though the fake bottles only represented around 10% of Le Brun’s market share and have since been removed by government inspectors, Domaine des Tourelles, the company which owns the Brun label, felt it had to respond to avoid similar instances of brand piracy in the future.

“We have used new glass for our bottles and printed a new label that while the same is harder to copy,” explains Christiane Issa, Domaine des Tourelles’ marketing manager, who added that as of now Le Brun is be responsible for its own off and on-trade distribution of the 75,000 bottles it produces each year at its famous Chtoura distillery. According to Issa, the fakers were not particularly clever: “The capsules (cork covers) were very bad quality, the arak tasted awful and the bar codes were the same for the big bottles as well as the small bottles. Fortunately none were found at the major supermarkets, where there is a more discerning clientele.”

This is not the only example of piracy to hit the $10 million Lebanese arak industry. Massaya, who pioneered the arak revival with their blue bottles, have also reported copies of both their distinctive blue arak bottles and wine in Syria, while during the civil war many of Lebanon’s famous brands were regularly copied and exported, especially to the US, causing confusion among Lebanese exiles seeking solace in Lebanon’s national tipple.

BCD retail

Café’s, shops and restaurants in the Beirut Central District have reported losses of as much as 75% since the death of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on February 14, as demonstrations, strikes and official mourning amounted to eight days of lost business. More importantly, retailers claim, it is the general atmosphere of political and economic insecurity that deters people from going out. “Shopping is the last thing on their minds,” said one shopkeeper, summing up the general mood.

While Sunday afternoons and weekday lunchtimes have seen a relative return to normality, in the evening, the area is like a ghost town. “We are losing more than 50% in sales,” said an employee of Place d’Etoile, the café opposite the clock tower where Hariri and his entourage enjoyed their last coffee.

While all shops and restaurants in the area are suffering, arguably the hardest hit is the Virgin Megatore, which has seen its immediate surroundings sealed off. “Most customers we get these days, are demonstrators who come to use the toilets,” said Virgin’s general manager and chairman Jihad el Murr, who said his shop, at one point one of Lebanon’s best retail performers, had seen a 70% drop in sales since February 14.


Still, he was upbeat. “We do not mind this situation for three months or so,” he said, “especially if it means the political situation changes in a positive way. However, if it is to last longer, then we are forced to take drastic measures, such as laying off employees and reducing opening hours.”

It is not just sales in downtown Beirut that have taken a hit. Hamra Street, normally one of the Beirut’s busiest areas, has also seen a fall-off in trading activity, with shopkeepers reporting a 40% to 70% decreases in sales, while in New Jdeideh, the scene of a car bomb at the end of March, retailers complained of similar losses.

Bhamdoun

Continuing violence and political turmoil in the wake of the February 14 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri have spurred fears that the instability could have disastrous consequences on the economy as a whole and the roughly $1.5 billion summer tourism season in particular. Nowhere is this concern more palpable than in the mountain resort town of Bhamdoun, where tourism is crucial to the local economy. A summer haven for holidaying Gulf Arabs, Bhamdoun has experienced a retail and real estate boom in recent years.

“If there are more explosions, the Gulf Arabs will be frightened and will be driven away from Lebanon, to places like Jordan, Egypt and even Syria,” warned economist Marwan Iskander. That would come as a serious blow to Bhamdoun’s business community, for whom the summer season, according to Iskander, generates about $60 million a year in revenue.

Developer Raffi M. Kaloustian, chairman of Le Baron, which designs and constructs villas and apartments in the Bhamdoun region, acknowledged that his company had put future plans on hold. But he, like many Bhamdoun residents, professionals and officials, stressed that it was too early to say what exactly would happen in the summer, especially given Gulf Arabs’ strong attachment – both personal and financial – to Bhamdoun.

He said he was currently building villas and apartments for 30 clients – all of them Gulf Arabs. “Not one of them has suggested postponing a payment,” he said, “because they believe in this place.”

Kaloustian said that most Gulf Arabs were aware the realities of Lebanese life, a philosophy that saw them visit every summer even when the rest of the world felt it was unsafe. “They expect an eventual boom,” he added, “but they all say: we’ve got to go through a few bombs before we get there.”

BMW

Despite the uncertainly of the previous month, not to mention the added insult of their Ain Mreisseh showroom being damaged by the Hariri blast, automotive dealers Bassoul-Heneine are bullish about future sales. Introducing the new BMW 3 Series in Beirut last month, Bassoul-Heneine general manager Naji Heneine told Executive Magazine, “Until now and depending on the situation, I have not cut my orders.”

For the first month, the BMW dealers had ordered delivery of 43 vehicles of the new 3 Series, to be followed by 30 new cars each month until the end of the year. The new German driving machines, the fifth edition of the 3 Series in 30 years of the brand’s history, will retail in Lebanon starting at $41,000 and top models could go up to over $60,000, Hneine said.

The Beirut event, including ample technical praises, a cinematic overview over the line’s genesis, and presentation of two new vehicles in the conference room at Beirut’s Metropolitan Palace Hotel, was the second launch party for the car in the Middle East and came ahead of events in other, larger markets. According to BMW Group Middle East representative Joerg Kelling, the entire brand sells about 3,000 units per year in Saudi Arabia, 600 in Lebanon and 100 in Syria. 

“Lebanon is a small market in size but it is a very fashionable market. Cars that sell well here also sell well three to six months later in Gulf markets. For me personally, it is also the most exciting market in the region because of the unbelievable appreciation of the brand here,” Kelling said, adding that he is optimistic about the Lebanese market and sees a new and very large potential for BMW in Syria.

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