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Paying the hospitals

by Executive Contributor August 28, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

After much back-and-forth in the media, in mid-July an agreement was finally hammered out between the Syndicate of Hospitals and the various government entities and public employee groups that collectively owe almost LL500 billion in unpaid hospital bills. The terms of the deal stipulate that the hospitals’ primary public debtors – including the ministry of health, the labor ministry, the army, and the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) – would each pay the entire amount they owed from 2003 by the end of August.

Although the president of the NSSF’s administrative board, Maurice Abu Nadher, had previously argued in published reports that the Fund’s outstanding bill was the result of incomplete applications on the part of hospitals, as well as a lack of government funding for the Fund itself, he told Executive there now was “no problem, we have the money … I think we will be able to make our payments by August.”

Saleem Haroun, the Syndicate of Hospital’s president, is not entirely convinced. “They have made agreements before and then broken them. Either way, we are still owed for the last seven months of 2004 and still face serious problems as long as there are delays in payment.”

Abu Nadher, for his part, isn’t entirely convinced of the hospitals’ woes: “I don’t think they are facing a dire situation. After many years, they are making too much money.”

For Antoine Abi Akl, a hospital payment’s manager at Berytus, a health insurance provider, private insurers will most likely continue to be caught in the middle. He said: “Hospitals try to compensate by putting more pressure on the private sector to pay their bills,” since private insurers customarily pay their bills within two to three months.

Lebanon’s AIDS problem?

According to the UN’s latest annual report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic, the number of individuals in Lebanon living with the disease jumped 40% between 2001 and 2003, from an estimated 2,000 cases to 2,800 cases.

The increase seemed to buttress the stark warning issued earlier this year by the National Aids Control Program (NACP), a joint effort by the ministry of health and the World Health Organization, that “HIV/AIDS could emerge in a few years as a primary threat in Lebanon, which will affect major sectors including health, social affairs, tourism, and labor. It will be an additional burden on a slowed down economy, increasing the costs of the health care, and on a social structure barely developed after years of civil troubles.”

Although one NACP official stressed that the UN’s number was only an estimate – there are currently 756 people in Lebanon known to be living with HIV/AIDS – the globally respected report may just provide some much needed fire for the government to move even more quickly on key elements of its recently issued five-year strategic plan.

Key among the goals envisioned by policymakers in the plan is a greater involvement on the part of the private sector – especially in so far as private hospitals and the media are concerned. As the plan noted, “the private sector’s involvement in the fight against AIDS is imbalanced.” What’s more, there have been “few links” established between the government and private hospitals, which treat 90% of HIV/AIDS cases.

The plan also looks toward the creation of a “legal and policy environment which protects the rights of all persons” infected with HIV/AIDS – an effort that would invariably affect private companies in Lebanon, since few have formal policies regarding employees living with HIV/AIDS.

Indeed, according to a recent World Economic Forum report, fewer than 6% of firms say they have such policies in place. “Companies are not particularly active in tackling AIDS, even when they expect the epidemic to cause serious problems for their business,” the report said.

Bad medicine

The Lebanese Pharmaceutical Importers Association (LPIA) claims the import of counterfeit pharmaceuticals and the illegal import of registered products have increased over the last few months. “We have no estimation of the volume,” said LPIA president Armand Phares, “but several of our members have witnessed more incidents of illegal imports and-or counterfeit products on the market.”

It’s estimated that about 6% of the $230 billion pharmaceutical market worldwide includes counterfeit medicines. Generally, the percentage is higher in developing countries, yet surprisingly a recent documentary on France’s TV5 showed that in the USA an estimated 15% is counterfeit. In Lebanon, according to Phares, “it’s definitely far below the world average.” Still he called upon importers and pharmacists to remain vigilant and to inform authorities and the public whenever they come across smuggled or bogus products.

Preventing the import of such products is the duty of the customs authorities. But at the same time it is the task of the inspection department at the ministry of health, as well as the Order of Pharmacists, to conduct “heavy controls,” so that products are located and people dealing with them arrested and judged.

Meanwhile, to make illegal imports more difficult, the LPIA has decided to introduce a special hologram, which will be added to import forms. By law, a pharmaceuticals importer must put two stickers on the outer pack of a medicine, one indicating the registration number at the ministry of health, the other indicating the price in Lebanese pounds.

“Having noticed that this system can be easily falsified,” Phares said, “the LPIA has decided to introduce a 3D hologram showing both the LPIA and the importer’s name, which is very difficult, if not impossible to falsify. This will take a few months to implement, but will give very strong protection to patients.’

Happy hotels

With Lebanon perhaps heading for an all-time record in terms of the number of visitors entering the country, hotel occupancy rates are soaring this summer. In the first six months of 2004, 506,367 foreigners entered Lebanon, up from 348,542 during the same period last year. In July and August the number is expected to almost double. Last year some 300,000 Arab visitors came during summer alone.

The ministry of tourism this year expects a total of some 1.5 million tourists to enter Lebanon, which would break the 1974 record of 1.4 million. And so it is a perfect summer for Lebanon’s hotel sector. Beirut’s luxury hotels claimed an occupancy rate of 75% in June, which is expected to increase by some 10% in July and August. Nizar Alouf, general manager of the Riviera, claimed an occupancy rate of 73.3% in June, which he expected would increase to 80% July and August.

The Phoenicia InterContinental, Beirut’s largest hotel, saw 77.4% of its 13,800 beds occupied in June, while Rotana, one of the smaller hotels with a maximum capacity of 3,840 beds, boasted the highest June occupancy rate with 91%.

But it is not just Beirut that is reportedly doing well. The Sheraton in Bhamdoun is “nearly full” the whole summer, according to the reservations desk. A smaller hotel in the Bhamdoun-Aley area, the Carlton, saw a third of its 70 rooms occupied in June, yet is fully booked during July and August. The medium size Sheikh Hotel in Bhamdoun reported similar rates. Though Bhamdoun is picking up rapidly, Broummana, in the Metn, is still doing well, as it did last year. The Grand Ville Hotel, with its 118 rooms and 52 apartments, had an occupancy rate of 50% to 60% in June and September, and of almost 85% in July and August, according to its reservations manager. The Belle Vue Palace, a small family hotel of 65 rooms, has been fully booked for the whole summer. Nearly all hotels reported that some 80% to 90% of their summer clientele originates from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

The Arabs are landed

The latest report issued by Ramco Real Estate Advisers last July concluded that Gulf investors buying Lebanese land have poured some $680 million into the Lebanese economy between 2000 and March 31, 2004. The report added that “taking into account the additional investment on project development the amount could easily more than double.”

RAMCO noted some interesting buying trends. While last year saw the highest activity in land buying by Arabs, when no less than 800,000 square meters were bought in 56 separate deals, the first months of this year saw a slowdown in the number of purchases: only 122,000 square meters were bought, mostly by Saudi investors. RAMCO estimates that having bought large chunks of land last year, Arab developers “need some time to digest the flurry of buying.”

Also, while Kuwaitis were known to be the most active buyers in recent years, Emiratis concluded nine out of the 20 largest deals over the last 32 months, followed by four Saudi and four Kuwaiti deals, and one Qatari and one Syrian.

A total of no less than 2.03 million square meters of Lebanese land were sold between 2000 and March 31 2004 in 109 large deals. “All these deals,” RAMCO reports, “involved lands larger than 3,000 square meters, the maximum holding allowed for non-Lebanese.” The two largest purchases of land – of 368,723 square meters and 123,492 square meters – were concluded by Kuwaiti investment groups in the region of Qornayel.

The Arabs’ most preferred purchase targets are in the mountains, yet not too far from Beirut. So, 38% was bought in Baabda, 27% in the Metn and 18% in Aley. Only 1% of all land deals took place Beirut, which still represented the largest value for the Lebanese economy.

Kill those lines

The first consumer boycott of the Lebanese cellular network was endorsed by a wide coalition of syndicates and professional organizations. The main organizers of the boycott were the consumer rights non-governmental organization, Consumers Lebanon, which had urged the country’s nearly 800,000 mobile phone users to press for a cut in basic rates and per-minute charges by shutting down their mobile phones for 24 hours on July 15.

Initial estimates of participation in the boycott varied wildly, from more than 60% by the organizers to little over 10% by the ministry of telecommunications, which is in charge of setting mobile phone rates for the two network operators LibanCell and Cellis. Notably however, the telecommunications minister, Jean-Louis Qordahi, responded to the boycott’s substantial public attention by saying the ministry would shortly be submitting a revised cell phone pricing structure to the Cabinet.

A few days later, representatives of Consumers Lebanon modified their high estimates of the boycott. Business users could not be expected to switch off their mobiles for a full day, the executive director of Consumers Lebanon, Abdelrahman Berro, told Executive while making a rhetorical claim to the protest’s general support: “For us, 95% of users are with the boycott,” he said. “Who is against a reduction in costs?” The target of the boycott was the government, not the mobile phone operators. Berro attributed to government manipulation the fact that excessive cellular rates were blamed on the networks’ operators.

If no change in prices comes about, Consumers Lebanon plans to repeat the boycott in mid-August. The organization has set its mind on creating a permanent framework for staging civil disobedience against numerous government-mandated costs. “We will make many boycotts,” Berro said.

Corruption as thick as oil

While Lebanon bakes in the summer heat and people bend under the weight of high gasoline prices and seasonal energy shortages, the judiciary recently launched investigations into high-profile corruption and squandering of funds at the national power utility, Electricité du Liban, (EDL) and the ministry for energy and water resources. Two advisors to the ministry, Rudy Baroudy and Majed Qostantine, were taken into custody and questioned over their alleged involvement in fraudulent trade with oil derivatives and with illegally enriching themselves.

From late June, investigative authorities issued a flurry of summons for questioning against the two advisors, employees at EDL and businessmen working in the import of oil derivatives. The cases of fraud and graft in the oil sector partly date back to 1999, when the former oil minister, Shahe Barsoumian, was arrested for supposedly skimming funds in the magnitude of $800 million from illicit oil deals. At the time, observers considered Barsoumian to be a possible scapegoat for other figures implicated in the oil scandal, and until today the file of suspicious affairs in the energy sector remains multi-faceted: Alleged wrongdoings also include charges relating to shady contracting and consulting agreements as well as to opaque procedures in awarding operator contracts for the nation’s power plants.

While results of the current investigations have yet to be made public, it is curious that the problems in the energy sector attracted such intense official scrutiny just after high energy costs played a big role in the severe unrest during the May 28 demonstrations. Did new evidence surface or could politics and election-time machinations have been involved in the investigation? “We are researching why these investigations have come to the fore right now,” said Charles Adwan, anti-corruption campaigner for the Lebanese chapter of watchdog organization Transparency International. 

New winery in Kefraya

The Saadeh Group, which already has wine interests in Syria, is building a new winery, Terres & Vignobles, in Kefraya in the Western Bekaa. Yussef Kamel, the Saadeh Group’s vice-president for investment, refused to reveal any details of the venture, but admitted that “planting would begin very soon,” an indication that the new winery will grow its own grapes rather than buy from local growers. If this is the case, it will be at least three years before Terres & Vignobles will produce it first harvest and also means that further planting will take place in an area where wine grape growers have seen prices fall by as much as 40% over the past three years.  

Still, Kamel was upbeat. “We believe that wine is a business Lebanon should leverage, given the obvious qualities of the country’s soil and weather, adding, “If there were a danger of saturation, we wouldn’t be in the business.”

The new venture comes at a time, when Lebanon’s $25 million wine industry is at a crossroads in its development. UVL (Union Vinicole du Liban) President Serge Hochar has said that the long awaited national wine institute, must, like in France, control the level of planting according to demand.

Unchecked expansion would, according to one local producer, affect the price and quality of grapes and threaten the quality of future vintages. For a country, whose only hope of competing in a fiercely competitive international market, is to create a boutique identity, this would be a disaster.

“There is a danger that such uncontrolled development – not necessarily by the Saadeh Group I must add – could damage the reputation of Lebanese wine,” he said. “The sector is now in such peril of being overwhelmed, and damaged, by unrestrained investment and unethical practices that the government and associated legislative bodies must step in to protect us.”

Taking a Spin

Local supermarket Spinneys is giving away 10 new cars as part of its 100-day promotion and advertising drive from May to early August. Lebanon’s expansive supermarket chain describes as “by far the largest ever” for such a campaign in retail here.

Putting out prizes worth “just short of $300,000” and investing into advertising and below-the-line product promotions, the three-tiered campaign carries a value of $600,000, Spinneys’ Middle East retail director Michael Wright told Executive. Results have been in line with expectations and have brought the company month-on-month sales growth of 15% to 20%.  

The campaign’s unprecedented size is based on both sales volumes and increased geographical presence of Spinneys markets in Lebanon. “Our advertising budget is directly related to our top-line sales,” Wright said. When the company operated at single branch level, even nationwide campaigns had been of limited effect, because customers would not find their way to the store, he added.

While some of the chain’s previous promotion efforts, such as introduction of coupons in 2003, seemed over-complicated for local habits and were not carried further, the current high visibility campaign apparently strikes a strong chord with Lebanese consumers. Under the rules of the campaign, a customer receives one ticket participating in the draw for the car prizes per each $34 in purchases.

The mechanics of the car giveaway follows the rules for lotteries under Lebanese law, by which prizes must amount to at least 3% of the accumulated value of participating tickets. Thus the campaign is geared towards achieving $10 million worth of tickets. For those who have a penchant for a gamble, this places the odds for winning an extra four wheels with your LL50,000 purchase at one in 30,000.

August 28, 2004 0 comments
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Less popular cruises?

by Executive Contributor August 25, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

While 60 cruise ships dock at Beirut each summer only one, the Ausonia, takes on new passengers, and for three years now, Lebanese holidaymakers have signed up for the weeklong Greek island cruise, organized by the Cypriot company, Louis Cruise Lines. That was until this year, when prices went up by about 5%, noted Toufic Keyrouz, general manager of the travel agency Lebanese International Tours, who feels that the budget cruise may have had its day.

Paul Zahlan, a director of Lebanon’s Aeolos travel and cruise agency, which helps Louis organize the cruise, said roughly 1,000 places are sold to Lebanese each year. Aeolos spends $20,000 to market the trip on LBC, Light FM and Radio Free Lebanon and the company also relies on word of mouth from what it hopes are satisfied customers. According to Zahlan, the Ausonia, which accommodates a maximum of 690 people, is no luxury vessel, but its prices appeared to fit in with Lebanese budgets.

However, lure of cheap charter flights, luxury cruises, and more stringent visa application processes since Cyprus’ accession to the European Union may conspire to reduce the number of Lebanese interested in the cruise, he said. “I don’t think we will sell as many places this year,” Keyrouz warned.

His prediction comes at a time when local travel agents are selling week-long holidays to Turkey’s highly regarded resorts for under $400 per person. Prices on the Ausonia start at $500 per person going up to $1,030. 

A taxing transfer

As they prepare to transfer management of the mobile network over to German firm Detecon and Kuwait’s Mobile Telephone Company (MTC), the two mobile telephone operators, Cellis and LibanCell, contend that their employees do not have to pay taxes on their indemnity packages following their voluntary decision to resign. The companies contend that they received confirmation of this in a letter from Sarkis Saker, the finance ministry’s tax department director.

However, the validity of the letter has since been thrown into doubt. An independent Audits Court is currently deciding whether the indemnity payments, ranging from $20,000 to $133,000, should, in fact, be subject to 20% taxation. A current Detecon employee, as well as a former Cellis one, told Executive that they had seen the letter. They both asked not to be named. The Detecon employee suggested there was a misunderstanding, or that a decision had been taken at a certain level but not at another. “If Sakr doesn’t represent the ministry, then who does?” asked the Cellis employee.

Saker confirmed that the letter had been sent, but said he was unable to comment further since the file was with Fouad Siniora, the minister of finance. He said he didn’t know when a decision would be taken. An official at the ministry said that  Jean-Louis Qordahi, minister of telecommunications, wrote to Siniora on May 17 urging him to speed the decision process up.

A spokesperson for Detecon said less than 20 people had chosen to revoke their decision to voluntarily resign from Cellis by mid-afternoon on May 18 – the deadline given for doing so. MTC, for its part, said about 20 LibanCell employees had decided not to resign after all. More than 300 people at both Cellis and LibanCell have resigned.

How Smart a purchase?

With gasoline prices hurting the purse of most drivers, Mercedes importers Gargour & Sons were given an added fillip for the launch of the roughly $20,000, four-seat, four-door variation of their hip, compact Smart car, which can do about 350 km on a full tank per 20 liters. DaimlerChrysler chose Lebanon as the first Middle Eastern country in which to introduce the Smart series, and launched the 1.5l, four-cylinder 109 horsepower “smart forfour” at the new Smart showroom in Saifé.

A spokesman for DaimlerChrysler said the auto giant had picked Lebanon as their point of entry the region because it regards Beirut in particular as sharing the ‘hip lifestyle’ image it associates with the brand, which despite its obvious attractions has yet to catch on with the mainstream Lebanese car market.

At the newly-opened showroom 18-year-old Ibrahim El Zein agrees. “This is the best car for my age,” he said, before acknowledging that his parents would be footing the bill. Buyers said their attention had been drawn to the car by a successful billboard campaign, and noted that at a time of high petrol prices, the “smart forfour’s” fuel efficiency influenced their decision to buy.

By mid-June, Gargour had sold 17 of the cars. The distributors hope to sell 110 by the end of the year. But this may be overly optimistic. Mathieu El Hawa, a 33-year-old events organizer who has just bought a “smart forfour” at $22,500, said he thought the price was “at the upper end” of the range for that kind of vehicle. “I think the price will deter buyers,” he warned.

Overall, Gargour & Sons have sold about 80 smart cars – including the smart 4.2 and the roadster, exceeding expectations, said Aoun, who boasted that the “smart forfour” would help sales to continue “snowballing.”

Losing money, tranquilly

Restaurant owners on Maarad Street are angry that a walkway under construction behind buildings on one side of the street still has not been completed. The path will flank the rear façade of several restaurants as part of a “Garden of Forgiveness” – which will incorporate a portion of Beirut’s ancient ruins.

Before work began in September last year, the restaurants were using the space for outdoor seating. They have since been deprived of valuable income, and losses are growing as the summer season sets in. Revenue at Casper & Gambini’s Maarad Street outlet – which lost 120 outdoor seats when work on the path began- – has dropped by 50%, according to the restaurant chain’s director of research & development, Carol Maalouf. The neighboring TGI Friday’s has lost more than $100,000 since construction began.

Initially, restaurateurs had been promised that the walkway would be finished by March or April. “I am going to look into it to see if the delays are minor or major,” pledged Beirut Mayor Abed El-Menem Ariss. “The municipality does not delay things.” He said he was unable to say when the walkway would be finished.

Restaurateurs had also been told they would be allowed to set up outdoor seating again once construction had ended, Maalouf said. But it is now unclear whether the restaurants will, in fact, get their terraces back. “Halfway through they said no,” stated Maalouf. She said that the sudden volte-face had been prompted by Beirut Municipality concern that restaurant tables might spoil the tranquility of the garden. A Solidere urban development manager who asked not to be named said he was “extremely concerned about the abuse of space.” We don’t want the garden overwhelmed by commercial activity,” he said. The delay could, he acknowledged, have “something to do with that.”

Crashingly low payment

Half a year after a disaster of a Union Transports Africains flight cost the lives of over 130 passengers, most of them Lebanese, the carrier and its insurers issued an offer to compensate the families of victims. According to a press release by London law firm Barlow Lyde and Gilbert (BLG), UTA and its unnamed insurers established a “humanitarian fund” willing to disburse $10,000 per adult and $5,000 per minor killed or injured onboard the Boeing 727 that crashed on Christmas Day 2003 during takeoff from Cotonou (Benin) to Beirut.

The size and form of the proposed settlement raised questions in Beirut, as the amounts offered are unusually low for compensation commonly paid in airline accidents. Several families of crash victims immediately rejected the offer and some called the amounts “insulting,” said lawyers Youssef Mouawad and Diane Armaleit, who represent the interests of about 20 affected families.

According to Mouawad, the exact terms of the settlement proposal had not yet been conveyed to him and his clients by mid June. While some might be tempted by it, he said “the families of many victims are not going to accept this,” and would press for establishing the criminal culpability of the airline’s [Lebanese] owners in court.

Because of the circumstances of the crash, attributed by initial investigations to massive overloading of the plane, the families would aim to have the UTA owners charged with “gross negligence amounting to fraud,” Mouawad said, as soon as the final disaster investigation report is issued.

British law firm BLG, which administers the portentous fund and appointed lawyer Fady Mallat as their Beirut representative to submit claims to, would only state that the fund was established “outside of the terms and conditions of UTA’s insurance policy” and told Executive that it could not comment further.

Information sector disinformation?

A new study on the Lebanese information and communications technology (ICT) industry puts the sector’s size at 600 companies with a workforce of up to 6,750 employees and annual sales of up to $400 million. It affirmed that ICT is “a significant, vibrant and productive industry sector in Lebanon.”

The study, which canvassed sector companies based on commercial directories in March and achieved a response rate of just under 25%, was conducted by California-based research firm SRI (formerly Stanford Research Institute) and funded by the USAID mission in Lebanon.

Based entirely on industry responses, the survey found that 51.4% of sector companies are medium-sized firms ($100,000 to $1 million in sales). Almost 40% are active only in software development, where companies achieved almost triple the annual business growth of pure hardware firms. Regardless of their specialization, small firms (22.6%) reported higher growth rates than medium and large players. Companies said that insufficient information about export markets was their main challenge to growth and presented themselves as fairly confident of their technical and management skills.

Often hailed as key industry with international growth perspectives, the Lebanese ICT sector had suffered for years from an absence of reliable industry data. SRI cautioned that the survey results did not allow drawing implications for any strategic change.

Officials of Lebanon’s Professional Computer Association, which participated in the commissioning of the study, welcomed the results. But Fares Kobeissy, president of the Association of Lebanese Software Industry, questioned several figures, such as the reported annual industry growth rate of 12.5% over the past two years, based solely on information from companies in a sector known for presenting overly rosy figures. “We know that we have a lot of problems in our sector,” he said. “Unless we can be sure that they are 100% correct, such numbers are not going to help us.”

Have a Spin(neys)

Can you use new wheels? Try Spinneys. Ten spanking new cars are the main feature in a 100-day promotion and advertising drive from May to early August, which Lebanon’s expansive supermarket chain describes as “by far the largest ever” for such a campaign in retail here.

Putting out Toyota cars as prizes worth “just short of $300,000” and investing into advertising and below-the-line product promotions, the three-tiered campaign carries a value of $600,000, Spinneys’ Middle East retail director Michael Wright told Executive. At its mid-point, results were in line with expectations and brought the company month-on-month sales growth of 15% to 20%.  

The campaign’s unprecedented size is based on both sales volumes and increased geographical presence of Spinneys markets in Lebanon. “Our advertising budget is directly related to our top-line sales,” Wright said. When the company operated at single branch level, even nationwide campaigns had been of limited effect, because customers would not find their way to the store, he added.

While some of the chain’s previous promotion efforts, such as introduction of coupons in 2003, seemed over-complicated for local habits and were not carried further, the current high visibility campaign apparently strikes a strong chord with Lebanese consumers. Under the rules of the campaign, a customer receives one ticket participating in the draw for the car prizes per each $34 in purchases.

The mechanics of the car giveaway follows the rules for lotteries under Lebanese law, by which prizes must amount to at least 3 percent of the accumulated value of participating tickets. Thus the campaign is geared towards achieving $10 million worth of tickets. For those who have a penchant for a gamble, this places the odds for winning an extra four wheels with your LL50,000 purchase at one in 30,000.

The politics of economic reform

Politically driven economics were high in the decision to initiate an early swap of $7.5 billion in Lebanese Eurobonds maturing in 2005 and 2006, for a new debt maturing in five years. The swap was approved on June 17 by the Cabinet, authorizing finance minister Fouad Siniora and central bank governor Riad Salameh to start negotiating a swap operation with commercial banks.

On contending sides of the issue were Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who had opposed the measure, and President Emile Lahoud, who initiated it. Hariri stated that the national debt has reached $35 billion and could rise to $45 billion over the next three years, unless the country achieved its long-called-for economic reforms. Lahoud argued that the swap would ease pressure off the economy and that, done early, it could save the country money by achieving lower interest rates than those expected in international markets next year.

These latest economic policy arguments between Lahoud and Hariri grew from a seed planted a month earlier when the prime minister announced that he intended to orchestrate a third international donor conference for Lebanon, dubbed Paris III, in 2005. As pundits saw it, a new donor conference would underscore the importance of Hariri’s role for Lebanon’s economic recovery, weakening the president’s chances of an extended or renewed mandate; whereas avoiding such a conference would work to strengthen the position of Lahoud.

The question not commonly addressed in the dispute was why international institutions and donor countries would be interested in participating in yet another meet to rescue the Lebanese economy when the country has failed to deliver its promises made at the Paris II conference of November 2002. International economists observing the Lebanese scene immediately doubted that donor countries would have the stomach for yet another Paris round.    

August 25, 2004 0 comments
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Getting empire right

by Michael Young August 3, 2004
written by Michael Young

President Bush: dogged by economic challenges

Not long ago, one of the more pervasive explanations for the American war in Iraq was that the Washington had somehow embarked on an imperialist binge. Many a learned scholar clamored that what was on display was, in fact, “neo-imperialism” fashioned by a small clique of right-wing hotheads who had infiltrated the highest echelons of the Bush administration.

How quaint the explanation now seems, as the US has spent the past several months proving that, if a new imperialism was indeed once a mantra (and nothing proves this), then very poor imperialists the Americans have proven to be. As the presidential election approaches, in Iraq the US is suffering from, to quote British historian Niall Ferguson, “attention deficit disorder.”

Ferguson has been making this case for over a year now, in the context primarily, but not exclusively, of the Iraqi conflict. However, his argument is also much more general, and underlines a belief that the world can indeed benefit from a liberal empire, similar to the British Empire during the 19th century. Ferguson’s argument is primarily an economic one, and he develops it in his most recent book, Colossus, on the price of America’s empire. He writes: “The evidence that, in an increasingly protectionist world, Britain’s continued policy of free trade was beneficial to its colonies seems unequivocal. Between the 1870s and the 1920s the colonies’ share of Britain’s imports rose from a quarter to a third.”

Ferguson goes on to write: “The British Empire was an engine for the integration of international capital markets. Between 1865 and 1914 more than ?4 billion flowed from Britain to the rest of the world, giving the country a historically unprecedented and since unequaled position as global net creditor, the ‘world’s banker’ indeed, or, to be exact, the world’s bond market.”

Based on this, and after cataloguing the myriad failures of third world countries having undergone decolonization, Ferguson argues that the US must embrace the liberal imperial mantle. The only problem, he notes, other than Washington’s propensity to abort its overseas ventures too early, is that an American empire faces both economic and manpower challenges: economically, the US must manage startling long-term domestic challenges, including a ballooning fiscal crisis nourished by the American propensity to consume much and save little. At the heart of this is an impending social security crisis. Americans are living longer and the present fiscal system remains entirely inadequate to pay for future generations of far more numerous retired people.

The ways of dealing with this, writes Ferguson, are to engage in massive increases in income and payroll taxes, or to slash social security benefits by equally dramatic amounts, or to cut discretionary spending to zero! This leads him to conclude: “[T]he decline and fall of America’s undeclared empire may be due not to terrorists at the gates or the rogue regimes that sponsor them, but to a fiscal crisis of the welfare state at home.”


A second challenge the US Empire faces is that it does not have enough people under arms to manage its vast global backyard. This stems, in part, from the fact that Americans are not instinctively “imperial” and hesitate to finance too martial a society. This, Ferguson suggests, is why “if Americans are reluctant peacekeepers, they must be the peacekeepers’ masters, and strike such bargains as the mercenaries of the ‘international community’ may demand.”

Has Iraq proven Ferguson’s point? Certainly in the past months the US has resorted to a more multilateral approach to the conflict there. The Bush administration virtually begged the UN to help it set up an interim Iraqi government, and would be delighted to see foreign forces, for example in the context of a NATO deployment, relieve American troops. That’s unlikely to happen, but long gone, apparently, are the exclusivist impulses that accompanied the American entry into Iraq over a year ago.

However, behaving multilaterally hardly prevents a powerful state from acting like, or indeed being, an empire. Take American behavior during the Cold War: the Western alliance was built on multilateral foundations, yet no one would deny that that was the time when the US took on its most forceful imperial identity.

What is critical, as Ferguson and others point out, is the deficit in American will in Iraq. As Middle East scholar Fouad Ajami wrote in the WALL STREET JOURNAL: “It is in Washington where the lines are breaking, and where the faith in the gains that coalition soldiers have secured in Iraq at such a terrible price appears to have cracked. We have been doing Iraq by improvisation, we are now ‘dumping stock,’ just as our fortunes in that hard land may be taking a turn for the better.”

How reminiscent that is of Ferguson’s own comment on US experiences in post-World War II Germany and Japan, which are often touted as examples of American nation-building success, but that were, in fact, very problematic ventures: “What was planned did not happen. What happened was not planned. This was not so much an empire by invitation as an empire by improvisation.”

So, will the US agree to be a liberal empire? For the moment the answer can be found in the Middle East, where the difficulties in Iraq may have prompted Washington to give up on its “liberal project” for the region. Instead, we risk seeing a return to the realist policies of the past that tolerated, indeed encouraged, autocratic regimes. That would be a shame. As the September 11 attacks made clear, only an international liberal order can buy America true security.

August 3, 2004 0 comments
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Real Estate

Old may be cheaper, but it’s harder to sell

by Anne Robinson August 1, 2004
written by Anne Robinson

To Rita Fakhoury it was the find of a lifetime. The three-bedroom apartment in Beirut proper was on the market for just $80,000. It was a little higher than the budget she and her husband Nadim had set but the prospect of a 160m2 home right in heart of the capital was a dream. In any case, they hoped to bargain the price down a little.

The 42-year-old building in Ras El Nabeh is solid but run down. Their new home on the third floor needs rewiring, replumbing and redecorating. But, having spent weeks trying to bring the price down – it finally went for $76,000 – they calculated on renovating the place at a speed they can afford and without piling up massive debts. To the young couple and their two small children, it was a passport to the Lebanese dream. To own their own home with no mortgage and no bank loan for restoration.

The flip side will come only if the Fakhourys ever want to sell the place. According to real estate experts, they are highly unlikely ever to get their money back. Indeed, they will face considerable difficulties in finding a buyer at any price. Rita Saade, a real estate consultant with The Landmark company in Riad Al Solh Street downtown, said even if the figure sought was very low, most buyers would not rush in. Price was a much lower factor among buyers than the amenities offered and the overall condition.

She said around 80% of the market was in new homes – “new” being defined as anything up to ten years old. Most of the rest is taken up with home-hunters seeking traditional Lebanese dwellings, with high ceilings and character, leaving minimal demand for everything in between.

“The attraction for young couples in a new building is that is likely to contain all the facilities that make life easier,” said Saade. These include parking space, a heating system and a standby generator. The properties in Sodeco, for example, don’t have underground parking because it wasn’t a requirement at the time the area was developed. For Rita and Nadim the lack of underground parking is the least of their concerns. They don’t even have a lift. Their bit of heaven is reached by a stairway.

The current trend, Saade added, is for people to move in from the suburbs and seek apartments in Beirut because of the increased potential for both work and entertainment in the capital, as well as the happy avoidance of the daily commuter battleground known as the feeder roads into the capital.

The benefits come at a price. Modern properties in Beirut rarely come at less than $1,000/m2 and can easily be double that figure. And even those numbers refer only to buildings outside the Beirut Central District (BCD) area, where $4,000/m2 is closer to the mark. It was a swift retreat from the high prices and an abiding fear of the never-ending process of repair and replacement involved in an old building that encouraged Christine Haddad to buy a home in Mansourieh. For $18,000 less than the Fakhourys paid for a wreck in the city, she bought a new three-bedroom apartment directly from the builder, who also helped to fix the financing. The 180m2 ground-floor home has a small private garden, an uninterrupted view down to the sea and the advantage of having a few minor defects fixed free-of-charge by the builder.

“My two girls go to school locally and happily I don’t need to travel regularly into Beirut,” said Haddad. “There is no way we could have afforded this level of comfort in Beirut itself and, in any case, I am confident that if in the next few years we need to sell the house and move we would be able to find a buyer.”

Saade confirms that view. “There is definitely a market for modern apartments and there is even a possibility that the seller may make a 5% 10% profit on the deal, depending on overall confidence in the economy at the time,” she said. The prospect of making a killing out of soaring property prices – as in, say, Britain, where values have increased by more than 500% in the past eight years – doesn’t exist. BCD is seen by people in the real estate business as the only area in the country where values may double over a period.

“In any case,” said Saade, “buying property in Lebanon is most often done on the basis of buying for a lifetime. Chopping and changing every few years is a phenomenon that doesn’t exist.”

Selling up and moving on was never in Farida Khazem’s mind anyway when she opted earlier this year to buy an old home in Sanayeh. “I know that almost no one else would want it, but that’s irrelevant to me,” she said. “I bought what I could afford in Beirut to be free of negligent landlords and to be close to all the amenities.” What is of “no value” to anyone else is, after redecoration and some repairs, a priceless palace for Khazem.

What consistent small demand there is for old homes that don’t quite fall into the category of “charming period Lebanese home” depends on the location and the fact that the apartment does have at least, as Saade put it, “some cachet.” It’s not enough to say Ashrafieh in this regard; it depends on which bit of Ashrafieh. Sassine down to Abdel Wahab, Tabaris, Monot and Gemmayzeh is a much easier sell than Jeitawi. Sioufi falls somewhere in the middle. Most difficult of all is to try to sell a soulless home in a place like Sin El Fil or Jal El Dib. What emphasizes that difficulty is the fact that some buildings were very poorly constructed and may even be illegal in respect of both planning applications and building standards.

“At the time, these cheap apartments in the suburbs were attractive for people with very limited budgets who wanted to move down from the mountains and be nearer to Beirut,” said Saade. Nowadays there are very few takers for these homes. Even some of the newer apartments suffer from questionable construction practices but since the amateurs have been squeezed out of the building market in the past three to four years, average standards have risen.

An added difficulty to modernizing older blocks was highlighted by Mark Morris Jones, a real estate consultant at Michael Dunn and Company. “The chances of getting a collection of existing owners in a building to share equitably the installation of a generator or the provision of parking facilities is often so small as to be negligible,” he said. Even where agreement was reached, the improvements would be solely for the benefit of the owners since it would have little effect on the resale value of the property.

One section of people on the move that form an increasingly significant factor in the residential real estate market is the Lebanese diaspora and other Arabs. While an image exists of the mega-wealthy moving in, exemplified by the reported $12 million paid for the downtown Park View penthouse by Mohammed Sleiman, chief adviser to Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd, the bulk of the market is much more mundane. The demands of Lebanese expatriates – and most other Arab buyers – are predominantly similar to those of the domestic market. They want modern apartments with modern facilities.

“The budgets of expatriates tend to be a little higher than those of people already living here,” said Saade. Their choices of what to go for are unaffected by the reason for buying – either as a personal home or as an investment to rent out. Just as it’s more convenient to move into a home where everything is both clean and functional, so it’s easier to find a tenant for a modern apartment than for an old building. The percentage return is also better and, with reasonable tenants, the income from a new lease can make it a sound investment.

Cheap old houses bring in much smaller rents and much larger headaches as far as maintenance is concerned. But the Fakhourys didn’t enter the market to make money. They see the mountainous list of tasks to be done to convert their decaying acquisition into a home fit for the family more as a labor of love than a headache.
 

August 1, 2004 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Reviving capital markets

by Nicolas Photiades August 1, 2004
written by Nicolas Photiades

Back in the mid 1990s, Lebanon showed a promising entry into the world of capital markets, which coincided with the significant boom of emerging markets during that period. The first Eurobond in US dollars issued by an Arab state was the 1994 $400 million Eurobond issue by the Lebanese Republic, which also became “Eurobond deal of the year.” The Lebanese government went on to issue debt securities, both domestically and internationally to this day, and at one stage became the only “frequent issuer” of debt securities in the Arab world. The Lebanese corporate world also followed suit in 1994 and subsequent years with a series of Eurobond issues by the larger banks, around five GDR (Global Depositary Receipts, or a form of stock issue) issues by Banque Audi (two issues), Banque du Liban et d’Outre Mer, Banque Libanaise pour le Commerce, and Solidere, and a few initial public offerings (Bank of Beirut, Rymco, Bou Khalil, etc.). The first Banque Audi GDR was also the first GDR issue in the Arab world and in the Middle East North Africa region ever, and was considered by finance specialists and investment bankers in places like London to have been a very gutsy decision by Banque Audi’s management.

But what happened since? With the exception of the odd Lebanese government issue (generally to repay the older issue, which had come to maturity) and the recent bond issue of First National Bank, the Lebanese capital markets are now considered to have lost their momentum. One of the main reasons for the relative dying out of the Lebanese capital markets was that domestic investment banks never established themselves properly. The few investment banks that had set up shop in Beirut in the mid-1990s either had extremely limited human, operational, and capital resources to build the foundations of large and liquid capital markets in Lebanon, or were staffed with inexperienced individuals, who lacked the necessary rigor and diligence, so crucial in this industry. Most of these investment banks have now been reduced to very small sizes, while others have been absorbed by the larger local commercial banks. The rare competent investment bankers have now left the country for greener pastures, and are now exercising their craft in a booming investment banking industry in Dubai, or are trying to make it as golden boys in London, New York, and even as far as Hong Kong.

The burst in the emerging market bubble in the late 1990s did not help the Lebanese capital markets’ cause either. With demand for bonds and stocks issued by Russian, Asian, Egyptian and South American companies and governments collapsing overnight, the Lebanese dream of developing the capital markets turned into a nightmare. Indeed, the Lebanese government, which had issued a series of Eurobonds and Lebanese pound Treasury bills before the emerging market crisis, found it much more difficult to issue bonds (mainly to repay old issues) and became constrained to selling their new issues to the local commercial banks, who became stuffed with highly risky and lowly rated debt securities. The Beirut Stock Exchange on the other hand, witnessed a drop by half in its market capitalization, and it became virtually impossible for any Lebanese institution to carry out an initial public offering or issue GDRs internationally. Moreover, the privatization window of opportunity of the mid 1990s period had clearly been missed, as politicians decided to kick-start the privatization program too late, towards 1999. This program is yet to really take off, and one of the privatization methods, which consists of selling shares of the privatized entity to the public via the domestic capital markets, is clearly out of the question for the time being, partly due to a lack of demand by local and international investors and partly because of a weak domestic infrastructure.

Another reason for the short life of the Lebanese capital markets has been the lack of interest by international investment banks for the Lebanese market. Lebanon is judged to be too small and too risky by international investment bankers and investors alike, and there is little hope that any global investment banking group would take interest and invest in the necessary resources for the development of the Lebanese capital markets. When companies such as Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, or Deutsche Bank act as bond book-runners for more than 300 to 500 issues each for total amounts exceeding $150 billion, in an international bond market exceeding $2 trillion (as at the end of 2003), the Lebanese market is obviously insignificant and simply not worth the hassle or investment banker’s time.

A developed and well-regulated domestic capital market environment is crucial if Lebanon is to come out of its economic inertia. The rate of national savings would also increase significantly and the development of debt capital markets would definitely provide a savings alternative to the population. For the capital markets to take off in Lebanon, domestic commercial banks need to take their self-assumed “universal banking” role much more seriously, as they are the only financial institutions in Lebanon to have the necessary financial resources to develop strong investment banking and capital markets capabilities. These banks must start showing greater flexibility in their dealing with their corporate clientele and suggest bond or equity issues when appropriate. Advisory services within the banks should be developed, not only for the development of primary and secondary securities issues, but also for the establishment of a wide institutional and retail investor base on a domestic basis.

It will not be sufficient for banks to convince a company to issue bonds or stocks. A solid and efficient secondary trading market must be established by at least the ten largest banks in the country, which would also have to develop a professional and transparent research capability. A domestic rating agency may even need to be set up, as ratings play a catalytic role in the development of capital markets and are vital for the initial pricing of primary bond or other debt securities issues. The local banks and insurance companies will have to work hand in hand to accomplish the important task of setting up a series of mutual, pension, venture capital, and other types of funds, which, under any circumstances, constitute the core of any investor base.

Simultaneously, the privatization program must resume in a transparent and highly proclaimed way, with the government making it clear to the public that every significant privatization will include a regional and domestic initial public offering. It will be indeed crucial for the development of local equity capital markets to list the newly privatized institutions on the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE). The latter would, in this way, see its market capitalization increase substantially, and, thanks to active market making, secondary trading and research by the local banks, would become an interesting investment alternative once again.

The government would also have a role to play. For a start, it can announce a major securitization program for its government institutions. Securitization is the most efficient restructuring tool, which has been widely used by other governments prior to launching their own privatization programs (Greece carried out more than €10 billion worth of securitization transactions in the last few years). It is a way of getting financed more cheaply, by issuing debt securities, which would be secured by the cash flow ability or collateral value of a specified asset or pool of assets. For example, the Lebanese government tried recently to securitize tobacco customs’ duties. The aim was to issue debt securities, which principal and interest rate would be assured by the cash flow emanating from the payment of customs’ duties over a ten year period. Such a transaction never got off the ground for political reasons, and also because few people understood its meaning and realized its long-term benefits.

It is vital that Lebanon does not follow the trend of many Asian economies in the late 1990s, when the reasons for the market collapses of 1998 were attributed to the absence of a developed domestic debt capital market. Indeed, when Asian shares (mainly of banks) collapsed, and simultaneously, bank deposits became unsafe, retail investors and savings could not fall back on any other alternative source of liquid investment. Hong Kong was the rare Asian country to have survived the crisis, thanks to its developed local debt capital markets.

Lebanon needs to embark on capital markets reforms, which should be carried out with a high degree of conviction and vigor. The development of the debt capital markets means the creation of an entire financial sector, including the establishment of a long-overdue capital markets authority, which would boost national growth through the more fluid financing of both the private and public sectors.

The development of investment banking activities by local banks, a privatization take-off, and the launch by the government of a securitization program, are essential components of a capital markets development trend. Well-regulated and developed capital markets would inject life in a moribund economy and avoid ultimate catastrophe. Their development must be considered as a priority.

 

August 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Turning Japanese

by Anissa Rafeh August 1, 2004
written by Anissa Rafeh

It is estimated that Lebanese consume about seven million pieces of sushi each year. Of those seven million, about 500,000 are ordered from Sushi Bento, the sushi delivery service established in July 2001. Revenues for the first year totaled $300,000. By 2003, that figure increased by over 33% to reach $400,000, and it is projected to hit the $500,000 mark by the end of 2004. Not bad for a company that started out with an initial investment of just $12,000.

“We realized that there was a gap in the market, for high quality, low budget sushi. So we thought, let’s eliminate everything that makes costs higher,” said Imad Abi Chaker, the general manager of Sushi Bento, who along with two other equal partners founded the business. The first part of the elimination process was to scrap the idea of a restaurant and the costs that come with it. The core business would lie in delivery.

“When I was studying in the US, I learned to eat sushi there. It’s not considered a luxury like it is here, so I got used to eating sushi – it was cheap,” explained Abi Chaker, who is also the general manager of his family owned food distribution company, ManyFood. “But when I came back here, I realized I was spending most my salary on sushi. It was my visa bill that gave me the idea to open Sushi Bento.”

Abi Chaker and his two partners began by picking a name: Abi Chaker wanted a Japanese word that was easy to pronounce and translated into ‘box,’ or ‘package,’ so ‘bento’ was chosen. Second came renting a small apartment in Ashrafieh. Using their initial capital of $4,000 each, they installed an industrial kitchen, and hired a chef (who is now Bento’s head chef). In the first three months, they made back their initial investment, and by the eighth month the partners plowed $38,000 back into the business, allowing them to shore up what until that point was a shaky delivery service.

To accommodate higher demand, the company relocated to larger premises, still in the Ashrafieh area, bought a bigger, 300m2 kitchen and hired more staff, taking the payroll to 25 employees. Despite a growing business, overheads were always kept at 20% of the monthly turnover.

Three years down the road, Sushi Bento has seen a rash of copycat operations popping up around the country. But, according to Abi Chaker, along with an increase in competition has come a surge in sushi’s popularity in Lebanon. “The competition is really helping more than hurting by creating a bigger market, so our numbers didn’t decrease,” explained Abi Chaker. “They helped us create an awareness of sushi and we are all benefiting from the [bigger] customer pie.”

Fighting off the competition is not a major concern because, said Abi Chaker, “Ashrafieh is expensive so it kept investors away.” Plus, it helps that Sushi Bento has a firmer grip on the market than most. Although no formal statistics on sushi exist in Lebanon, Abi Chaker estimates the market worth about $5 million, with Sushi Bento holding about 60% of the delivery market.

Not surprisingly, in a business that deals in raw fish, Abi Chaker claims that his major selling point is quality. Sushi Bento imports its fish directly from Japan and the Philippines, with the salmon obtained from local importers. Abi Chaker was quick to point out that Sushi Bento only buys Scottish salmon, as opposed to Norwegian salmon, as it is less fatty and of an altogether higher quality, even though it is about $3 to $4 more expensive per kilo. “We have the quality advantage and have managed to sustain a high quality product,” said Abi Chaker.

After the success of their initial venture – Sushi Bento saw its customer base increase by 500% – the next logical step was expansion. The company is now enjoying a growing franchise business, with the first branch already operating in Jal el Dib (another branch in the Palm Springs Village is owned by the Sushi Bento company).

“We try to get the first move advantage and reach underserved markets,” said Abi Chaker, adding that although he would rather not divulge the location, another franchise branch is expected to open in Lebanon very soon. He did, however, reveal that further franchises are in the works, not only in Lebanon but also in the region within the next 12 months.

“There is definitely more demand for our item, and the market is still underserved,” said Abi Chaker. “We’ve had many solicitations for franchises outside the country but have been reluctant to accept because of a lack of human resources to send out and train staff,” he continued, explaining that the current economic situation was also not the best climate in which to rush headlong into a hasty expansion program.

For now, however, Sushi Bento is concentrating on its budding catering business, which was introduced in 2003. Usually provided through another catering service, Sushi Bento sushi can now be found at all sorts of events, including dinner parties and weddings. Mostly operational during the summer months of June to September, the catering business makes up about 20% of the company’s yearly revenues.

And what of the challenges Sushi Bento has faced? Other than at first trying to convince Lebanese to eat raw fish, Abi Chaker said that the main obstacle they have come across is keeping up with the high demand. “Demand grew much faster than our production, that’s why we had to move to a bigger location.” Today, Sushi Bento delivers between 50 to 60 orders a day – that translates into about 1,000 pieces prepared daily.

Of the most in-demand raw fish treats, salmon ranks number one by far. In second place comes tuna, followed by the yellow tail. The most luxurious item on Sushi Bento’s menu is Unagi, or eel, which is also the most costly, ringing in at just under $4 per piece. “It’s the most rare type of fish [on the menu],” explained Abi Chaker, “and is less in-demand. It’s not a mass seller.” Another seafood delicacy is the fatty tuna, which is also very rare.

But above providing raw seafood right to your doorstep, Sushi Bento focuses on customer satisfaction. “One drawback [of a delivery service] is that we don’t see the reaction of the customers,” said Abi Chaker. So, to maintain good customer relations, 10 to 12 people are selected randomly each day and are asked for suggestions or comments on the Sushi Bento service. Luckily, none of the complaints have been too drastic so far. “We never, ever, had any complaint about quality – only about delays in delivering!” stressed Abi Chaker.

As for the future of sushi-eating in Lebanon, Abi Chaker has no qualms about sushi going belly-up. “Maybe it’s not as fashionable as it used to be,” said Abi Chaker, “but the sushi craze is here to stay.”

August 1, 2004 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Lebanese bonds: stable but vulnerable

by Faysal Badran August 1, 2004
written by Faysal Badran

As the world markets, mature and emerging, went through the turbulent transition from low rates by the Federal Reserve to “a measured and consistent rise,” most bond markets suffered. In fact all bond markets suffered. The reverberations of each pronouncement by Federal Reserves chieftain, Alan Greenspan, are felt all over, in commodities, equities, but most importantly, in fixed income securities. This is a universal occurrence, except for Lebanon. Lebanon has been outstanding at being exceptional in almost every conceivable measure over its history. In this case, while the entire curve of interest rates gyrated all over the world, Lebanese bonds remained unmoved. In fact, expecting a big hike in Lebanese Republic rates (move down in price), I called some of my contacts a day after some inflation numbers in the US rattled every market from Kuala Lumpur to Sao Paolo. Guess what? Lebanon bonds were unchanged.

It is important to place in context the latest two years of bond action worldwide. The fall of the Lebanese bond yields came within an environment of intense global reflation and increased liquidity, and in most cases this environment benefited emerging markets and lower quality corporate issues. This drop in risk aversion, or increase in appetite for risk came on the heels of a huge increase in liquidity and as a rebound from the bubble meltdown in the US. Still, it was unprecedented in magnitude and timeframe. Lebanese Republic bonds were up more than 25% in a year, which represents equity type returns, and more importantly, without any improvement in fundamentals besides a last minute donor conference in Paris in November 2002. But in effect, the fiscal deterioration continued in Lebanon, political polarization increased and placed the entire system in a state of near paralysis, pushing out privatization, reform and just about anything else promised at any time. Still the bonds performed well.

Previous articles have addressed the tightness of the Lebanese bond market. The sovereign bonds are held almost entirely by local banks. This derived from a post-Russian crisis aversion to international bonds, and most importantly from the incestuous fiscal ménage between the banks and the Lebanese treasury, with banks continuing to prefer local risk. The market is illiquid, and held by a few institutions, and this has provided the market with a sort of immunity from international tremors. By definition, one should be wary of rigged markets, especially where the exit door is bar locked and volume is thin. This has been the case for Lebanon Republic bonds for more than two years now. There is no trading (for all practical purposes there is one holder: the banking sector) and a complete disregard for economic and budgetary time bombs as well as any international benchmarks. And herein lies the real problematic issue with the current pricing and interest rate structure of the bond market. It is unrealistic and expensive. It is unwise to go back and dwell on the decaying political system, the ballooning deficit, and the lack of credible economic policy. This would be tantamount to “shooting at the ambulance.” The regime and its failings are too easy a target. What we want to look at, in measured objectivity, is whether Lebanese bonds are safe for individual investors.

There are obviously many parameters in the decision to buy a bond, and they range from income needs, duration, potential capital appreciation in the case of depressed bonds, and of course alternatives. In a global market where individuals have a palette of choices and vast information on ratings, risks and opportunities, it is important to look at alternative bonds within similar risk factors.

To simplify the panorama, let us compare Lebanese Eurobonds with those of Turkey and Brazil. It is a broad enough geographical spread and in terms of economic maturity they lie at different points on the curve. Looking at the 2011 bonds this is the matrix of yields and spreads. What is key to bear in mind here is that while Lebanon is rated B-, both Brazil and Turkey are rated higher at B+. So the table should be even more mind-boggling:

Brazil 2011 10%

Turkey 2011 8.05%

Lebanon 2011 7.59%

According to those rates, one would think that Lebanon had a better rating, or better political climate, or better economic and fiscal fundamental. Wrong.

This represents an anomaly, especially in a global rising interest rate environment, and private investors wishing to remain in sovereign bonds are better served by looking at alternatives. There is no justification, besides the illiquidity and tightness of the market, for Lebanon to yield 240 basis points less than Brazil despite a lower rating. It is confounding that local institutions have so much risk concentration in Lebanese paper, lack of diversification would in other places be considered a point of vulnerability.

Lebanon bonds are trading in an “if” environment: if Paris II was respected; if the government had a clear plan for restoring balance and confidence; if the risk of external shock was minimal; and more staggering, if Lebanon had a clearer path than Brazil or Turkey. After the hits taken by many Lebanese in the devaluation (s), and the collapse of foreign markets, and the regional turbulence, caution over patriotism should prevail when it comes to Lebanon Republic bonds. With the real estate market in a state of Gulf driven irrationality, the economy stuttering, and the political environment infested, private investors ought to look at alternatives or wait for a significant event or back up in interest rates to reinvest.

In a globally unstable environment, and a rising rate trajectory, an investment in bonds has had a tendency to turn into financial bondage in many emerging and submerging economies.

 

August 1, 2004 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

A proud Trading tradition

by Executive Staff August 1, 2004
written by Executive Staff

I taught you value of information and how to get it,” yelled Gordon Gecco (Michael Douglas) to Bud Fox (Charlie Sheen) in the iconic 1980s movie Wall Street. Those few words constitute the whole vortex around which the movie is predicated. And while insider trading is a major felony in developed securities markets, it is an open practice in Lebanon.

In fact, insider trading is not illegal Lebanon. No law exists to prohibit people benefiting from privileged information – good or bad – before it hits the markets, only one which prohibits price manipulation (a practice not necessarily based on leaked information but on an artificial shake-up of any given market, usually by a sudden buy-up of stock).

The American financier Ivan Boesky, and our very own Samir Trabulsi (involved in the Pechiney Affair in which the French government was found guilty of insider trading and which led to the suicide of the then French finance minister Pierre Bérégovoy), have all fallen foul of the laws that control insider trading and spent time in jail for their crimes. Corporations have also been guilty. One only has to look at Enron, Parmalat and Martha Stewart’s empire to see the impact of greed and its consequences.

However, in Lebanon the absence of a law has made insider trading something of a gentleman’s sport, with those in the know seeking to outdo rivals with the quality of their ill-gotten intelligence (it was not unknown for highly-placed traders on the BSE to work with the CEO’s and chairmen of corporate Lebanon to create market movement by the dissemination of false information). Today many of these advisors (well-known personalities, still working in the financial markets and who have been exposed in the pages of Executive) serve as the country’s leading corporate chiefs, and continue working to corrupt the markets. Insider trading has become a de-facto profession.

In 2002, Freddy Baz, advisor to the chairman at Banque Audi, announced to the press that one of the major factors behind the failure of merger talks between Banque Audi and Banque Libano-Francaise at the time was that news of the merger was leaked to the market, and the resulting movement in the stock price complicated valuation issues for the merger, and ultimately contributed to its failure.
 

This year, mutterings about the performance of Solidere stock suggest that the insider trading genie might have been let out of its lamp once again. No illegal activity has so far been proven, but what was unusual was that the extraordinary price hike went uninvestigated by most local media and did not, publicly at least, raise any eyebrows from the various watchdogs at the central bank and BSE.

These two institutions, along with their counterparts at the Association of Banks in Lebanon, have been trying for years to monitor market activity and enforce securities regulations. A significant effort was made in 2001 and 2002, whereby certain guidelines to deter insider trading were established. One stipulated that any trading in listed stocks of Lebanese banks by all parties related to a bank (employees and their relatives), required getting prior approval of the bank itself. However, this a token gesture of regulation and there today exists no strong, real regulatory body that enjoys the necessary judicial or legal authority to investigate possible cases of insider trading. And while there was no evidence of financial hanky panky with the Solidere shares (although the almost 100% rise in the company’s stock price in a period of less than three months would have raised red flags on major exchanges in Europe or the US), the incident should act as a wake up call, especially if the BSE wants to present a cleaner image to investors and generate higher volumes.

So what did happen? Solidere stocks “A” and “B” are the most commonly traded securities on the Beirut Stock Exchange, and are most likely to fall prey to foul play. It is common knowledge that Solidere, although arguably the most active on the Beirut Stock Exchange, has seen minimal price movements and trivial volumes both by regional and international standards. Solidere “A,” the most active stock of the company, traded in the range of $4 to $5.25 from mid-April 2002 all the way to mid-April 2004. During that time, the average weekly volume on the Solidere “A” stock was nearly 135,000 shares. Excluding two block trades in early 2003, the average weekly volume did not exceed 87,000 shares.

The first sign of a breakout in the stock price occurred in the week of March 12, 2004, when the volume on the Solidere “A” stock leapt to more than 268,000 shares for the week. Volumes rose to more than 443,000 per week two weeks later, and managed to sustain high levels throughout April, May and June. During that time, average weekly volumes on the stock rose to 239,406 shares. In tandem, the price of the Solidere “A” stock jumped from under $5 in March 2004, to top the $8.25 mark during the first week of June, and to subsequently stabilize just under the $8 level.

By all accounts it was the GDR market in London that picked up first, and then came the orders out of the Gulf, 50,000 at a time, via US investment banks. Liquidity was low and so the orders had to be “worked.” This wasn’t difficult. As much as there were investors, flush from having made money in 2003, there were holders of Solidere stock willing to sell.

On international markets, or even the less liquid regional ones, price spikes accompanied with increased trading volumes is not that uncommon, and do not necessarily indicate any foul play. In many cases, such market developments are due to certain announcements or news hitting the market and becoming public knowledge, and it is this that draws a fine line between efficiency in the market and illegal market behavior.

Prior knowledge of Solidere’s new sales strategy, announced in June, undoubtedly triggered the sudden shopping spree. The offer invited share holders to use their stock as down payment for land for which they would receive a 15% discount. For its part, Solidere would cancel all bought back stock, reducing the number of shares on the market in an attempt to boost the market price.

No one at Solidere was available for comment, but chairman Nasser Chamaa told Executive in a July interview that, despite Beirut’s reputation for being a city where insider trading and conflicts of interest between ownership and management are common, Solidere ran a tight ship.

“I believe our internal procedures are working as far as confidentiality and transparency are concerned,” Chamaa said. “We have shareholders all over the world. We have to ensure that we are not only playing by the rules in this country but by global standards.”

In spite of these assurances, it is hard to imagine that key information was not leaked. BSE chairman, Fadi Khalaf was not available for comment. His secretary confirmed that he would not be talking to the press on any issue until further notice.

Was it an inside leak? Anyone wanting to ignite a buying spree could do so knowing that it could be easily explained, despite the fact that Solidere had made no dramatic announcements. The share price was low, arguably a good buy for speculators hoping for increased confidence in Lebanese real estate during the summer. Information could have been leaked to investors in the Gulf and it could have started from there.

According to Walid Hayeck, Investment Banking Manager at the Beirut-based Arab Finance Corporation (AFC): “some people had this information” prior to the official announcement. To Hayeck, while “insider trading” may not have been involved, some people were aware of the upcoming revelations, and managed to profit from that. Jean Riachi, from Financial Funds Advisors, concurs, stating that the developments were most likely due to inefficiencies in the market, where only some people held the information before it became public.

A senior executive at one major investment bank in Lebanon prefers to call a spade a spade, stating that however you dress it up, people acted on information that was not yet public and broke the rules. “The movement in the share price was quite strange, and there appears to have been insider trading, which is not surprising.”

Nassib Ghobril, head of research at Saradar Investment House put it bluntly: “We need a body like the SEC (Securities Exchange Commission) to raise confidence and transparency in the market,” he said, adding that such a strong regulatory body does not only help avoid, detect and investigate irregularities in stock trades, but it would be able to accomplish significant improvements in the market’s activities, just as it has in developed markets.

Another analyst at a major local financial institution reiterated Ghobril’s comments, but did not hold out much hope for such a body being created in the near future. Just as the developments in the Solidere share price and volumes went virtually unnoticed over the past few months, obvious reforms are being held up because “some people don’t want [the BSE] or others to succeed, because success would look good on the resume of a political opponent,” he said obviously referring to the upcoming elections that will dominate Lebanon during the next year.

Riachi agrees on the necessity of creating a strong regulatory body, but does not think that this would be enough. He pointed to the need to educate the market to better understand market dynamics, the dissemination of public information, and the circumstances under which one is allowed to trade on such information.

Hayeck, from AFC, also cast light on a whole new aspect to the problem, calling for the urgent division between different entities within or between corporations, so that information that is privileged is not shared or disseminated haphazardly and discriminately. “There needs to be a Chinese wall between corporate finance and capital markets, for example,” he said.

The Solidere “incident” reflected the structural problems that are embedded in the Lebanese capital markets in general and the BSE in particular. The irregularities in trading can affect any stock on the exchange. “There is a general problem in the marketplace that is not specific just to Solidere,” said Hayeck.

If nothing is done the virus will spread. Insider trading is against the very philosophy of economic prosperity and the development of the BSE as a credible financial hub. But what is to be done? “Who will protect the market in the absence of a strong law,” asked one trader, adding, “I am sure that [President] Lahoud does not want this and I am certain that [Prime Minister] Hariri, who travels the world selling the financial strengths of Lebanon and who has a stake in Solidere, cannot be happy with these allegations.”

We may never know precisely what drove the Solidere stock between March and June. If there was a leak or leaks, we will never know who was behind them. What is known is that at least $20 million in cumulative profit was made and that questions are being asked. In the presence of any doubt, the buck stops with the boss, whether anything shady did or didn’t happen and whether he did or didn’t know about it. He could do the honorable thing, but then again, honor and conscience are in short supply these days.

August 1, 2004 0 comments
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The Buzz

Tapping into office talent

by Tommy Weir August 1, 2004
written by Tommy Weir

One comment that we routinely hear from HR managers in Lebanon is that “we can’t find good people and when we find them, we can’t keep them.” A fundamental question that begs to be answered is: Are good people born or developed? We believe that they are born and developed to reach their full potential. Is this the responsibility of the HR department or the CEO? To some degree, both.

Unfortunately, most CEOs spend little if any time developing talent in their company. A recent survey of top companies around the world revealed that successful CEOs spend close to 50% of their time developing themselves and others. How much time do you spend?

Organizations that do the best job of cranking out leaders tend to have CEO’s like Jeffery Immlet of GE, who are directly and actively involved in leadership development. Men and women like him realize that the future success of their company is dependent on this type of people investment.

Although it is important for the CEO to play an active role in talent development, ultimately the responsibility is up to you actively participate in motivating and developing yourself.

Listen to what General Mills CEO Steve Sanger recently told 90 of his colleagues: “As you all know, last year my team told me that I needed to do a better job of coaching my direct reports. I have just reviewed my 360-degree feedback. I have been working on becoming a better coach for the past year or so. I’m still not doing quite as well as I want, but I’m getting a lot better. My coworkers have been helping me to improve.”

Steve realized that it is his personal responsibility to develop himself and to acquire the skills that will enable him to be a more talented coach. No one was forcing him to do this. In order to become a better leader, he had to do something different. It makes no difference if you are a CEO, middle manager or front-line worker, you need to discover and develop your talent(s).

How is this accomplished?

Organizations need to put lots of focus on identifying high-potential people, better differentiate compensation, serve up the right kinds of opportunities (for promotion and training), and closely watch turnover. Of course, crucial to all these efforts is CEO support and involvement. There is no question that one of the best ways leaders can get others to improve is to work on improving themselves. Leading by example can mean a lot more than leading by public-relations hype.

Importantly, the principle of leadership development by personal example doesn’t apply just to general managers or CEOs. It applies to all levels of management. All good leaders want their people to grow and develop on the job and it starts at the top.

One of the benefits of talent development is talent retention. This is one of the greatest challenges facing the business world in Lebanon.

Every organization, large or small, that expects to grow and prosper must make talent retention a top priority. Failure to do so may be at the least a form of organizational denial and, at worst, a recipe for steady decline. The shortage of labor and widening skills gap fueled by the educational demands of knowledge work, has created a “battle for talent” that will make the “talent war” of the late 1990s look like a skirmish, all point to the need for updated retention competencies for leaders. Talent Keepers, an employee retention firm, list 10 talent keepers essential for leaders to understand and perform in order to retain and engage employees over the long-term:

1. Build trust.

2. Build esteem.

3. Communicate.

4. Build climate.

5. Be a flexibility expert.

6. Act as talent developer and coach.

7. Build high-performance.

8. Be a retention expert.

9. Monitor retention.

10. Find talent.

Using that success formula, leaders can retain and engage employees, but, importantly, they will earn their employees’ trust.

Talent is a crucial ingredient for any successful company. It must be cultivated and held on to. Don’t fall into the trap that so many do. They fail to develop talent in others for fear that they will lose it down the road. Start today, develop your talent and the talent of the people around you.

Tommy Weir and Christine Crumrine are from the Beirut-based CrumrineWeir, the global leadership experts.

 

August 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Shaping up or shipping out? Lebanon’s meat industry stinks

by William Long August 1, 2004
written by William Long

When two separate shipments of spoiled Indian meat were detected by inspectors at Beirut Port in June, the government was quick to claim that the successful police intervention proved the meat safety “system” in Lebanon worked well.

“Everything is under control. There is no bad meat in the country,” said Ali Hassan Khalil, the agriculture minister, in a statement to the press.

Critics, however, including fed-up members of the meat industry itself, were not as confident. For some, the 250 tons of spoiled meat that rotted away at the Port for several weeks before being shipped back to India was just one indication of a much larger problem. Lebanon, the critics said, still had a long way to go in meeting rigorous, international health and safety standards when it comes to meat.

By mid July, the government seemed to agree. After an intense press conference by the Cattle and Butchers Syndicate, and public scorn from the nascent public watchdog group Consumers Lebanon, both of which pointed to previous shipments of spoiled meat from India, the government issued a ban on all imports of Indian meat – which is to go into effect in mid September since some shipments from India were already en route when the decision was made.

In taking such sweeping action, the government grudgingly fell, at least partly, into line with the EU, which has for years banned meat imports from India because of health and safety concerns. Although the Lebanese government had long argued that the UN deemed Indian meat safe – claiming that the EU’s actions were more about protecting their own domestic meat industry – the twin incidents of spoiled meat seemed to raise enough concern about the costs of continuing to do business with the country, considering that Lebanon imported 75% of all frozen meat consumed last year (6,841 tons out of 9,124 tons in all).

Of course, the decision was not easy – frozen meat from India costs about $1.5 per kilogram, less than chilled meat from Brazil or Paraguay, which costs $3 per kilogram, and substantially less than fresh meat from live European cattle, which costs $5 per kilogram.

Since Lebanese SHAWARMA, as but one example, is primarily made from frozen Indian buffalo meat (cows are sacred in most Indian states), the inescapable political reality is that it’s only a matter of time before the Lebanese consumer feels the pinch. As one industry source explained, “The demand for cheaper and cheaper meat, like from India, has grown steadily, just as the old sources of meat have become more expensive.” Indeed, faced with growing price differentials, the composition of the Lebanese meat diet has changed considerably over the last decade. In fact, some observers now estimate that 15% of all meat consumed in Lebanon is frozen, 25% chilled, and about 50% fresh. Rewind to ten years ago and about 75% of all meat at the dinner table was fresh, derived from live cattle slaughtered locally. Frozen meat represented only a small part of the market.

Live cattle is still Lebanon’s number one commodity import, ahead of cigarettes, at a total value of $135 million last year, but imports of frozen meat from India have risen by 27% and 57% in 2002 and 2003, respectively. Added to this is the fact that nearly 95% of all meat needs are now being met by overseas sources. Gone are the days when Lebanon had a thriving domestic livestock system.

For some critics, the government’s decision to halt the increasing stream of Indian meat imports appeared to offer tacit acknowledgement that, even though inspectors ostensibly discovered the spoiled meat, some risk was present that the meat might have entered the marketplace – health and safety controls, these critics said, were not as strong as the government claimed.

According to one industry source, who, like most wished to remain anonymous for fear of reprisal, the spoiled Indian meat caught at the Port had actually been turned away from Jordan the previous week. When it arrived in Beirut, it was actually a competitor who tipped off ministry of agriculture inspectors that the meat was bad. A top official close to the issue disputed this notion though, saying that international sampling procedures were used on all meat imports, which includes taking a piece from the front, middle and back of each 22 ton container of frozen or chilled meat that arrives in Lebanon and testing it for bacteriological and viral contaminants. The government official was confident that the three inspectors assigned to test meat and monitor livestock at the Syrian borders, the airport and the Port would have caught the spoiled meat. However, according to the industry source, the government does not have enough inspectors to check the multitude of shipments that arrive each day in Lebanon, some of which, the Cattle Syndicate argued publicly, bear false or misleading certificates of origin, validity, and composition, further complicating the process. As the industry source put it tersely, “I don’t let my children eat meat unless I have seen the cow myself.”

Indeed, according to several industry sources as well as top government officials and at least one international expert, the government’s action against Indian meat really should be seen as a kind of surface maneuver, one that deferred, or anticipates (depending on how you look at it), the more difficult kinds of systematic reforms that are needed throughout the meat sector in order to ensure that Lebanese consumers are adequately protected. The reason for this sentiment is threefold: first, Lebanon currently has no food safety law protecting consumers, nor does it have an integrated system for measuring outbreaks of food borne illnesses or problems that occur at meat facilities. One can only wonder if this lack of statistics is why even critics of government food safety practices are also usually quick to assert that the Lebanese don’t really get sick from meat. (Of course, the 60 people recently sickened by a meat borne E-Coli outbreak at two separate wedding banquets in Lebanon would probably disagree.)

Second, the central government has little control over the 40 or so slaughterhouses and meat processing facilities in the country – nearly half of which are essentially unlicensed, despite handling nearly half of the 40,000 tons of meat consumed in Lebanon each year. Since municipalities control and monitor the slaughterhouses that lie within their own jurisdictions, a patchwork of irregular standards and procedures has emerged that inhibits industry wide surveillance and early warning measures. This chaotic situation has even led the Cattle and Butchers Syndicate to call for the closing of the main slaughterhouse serving Beirut, the Quarantine, saying that only a completely new facility could meet modern health and safety standards. As one top official closely involved with the issue put it bluntly, “The slaughterhouses present a serious problem.”

Such a conclusion is not altogether surprising, especially when considering that, as one representative from the ministry of economy and trade – the agency charged with inspecting slaughterhouses, processing plants and meat products – acknowledged, “We do not have enough inspectors.” Add to this the fact that the agency acts primarily as a “complaint driven” institution and what you have is a situation where the Lebanese consumer is left to trust an industry with little in the way of uniform, transparent standards and practices, not to mention vigorous oversight separate from local interests. Third, in banning meat imports from India, the government avoided dealing with the issue of Paraguayan meat, which the EU bans on similar grounds as Indian meat (10% of all chilled meat imports are from Paraguay, with the other 90% from Brazil). This concern may not be a factor for much longer though, as several sources closely involved in the issue predicted that it would only be a matter of weeks before meat from Paraguay was also banned. Despite the problems and late-inning measures, it appears that Lebanon is finally moving ahead with reforms in the meat sector. Both the ministries of agriculture and economy, in addition to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, are pushing forward a food safety law that will help Lebanon gain World Trade Organization membership, as well as better protection for consumers. Significantly, the draft law, which is expected to be taken up by parliament during the next session, aims to centralize authority over the various elements in the meat industry through a Lebanese Food Safety Agency. That body will, hopefully, put in place the law’s new standards and guidelines as well as serve as a proactive monitoring and enforcement regime for all levels of the meat industry. While stressing that the proposal was “excellent” and met the highest international standards, one non-governmental expert involved in the effort acknowledged that centralizing authority over what is now a sprawling web of interests involving butchers, supermarkets, slaughterhouses, ports and processing plants would be a “big challenge.” Either way, it’s a challenge that has clearly been made less daunting in the wake of the spoiled meat flap. According to Zuheir Berro, Consumers Lebanon’s executive director, the momentum couldn’t have come any sooner. In mid July, barely one month after the Indian meat seizures, the ministry of agriculture announced that 25 tons of spoiled fish had been detected and seized at Beirut Port. In one published report, a ministry source said that the importer of the fish was the same one who had tried to bring the spoiled Indian meat into the country in June. “There is an international mafia with connections inside Lebanon” facilitating the entry of spoiled meat, said Berro. “And we have no food safety law. Enough is enough. We need reform now.”

August 1, 2004 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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