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The Buzz

The art of leadership

by Executive Staff February 1, 2004
written by Executive Staff

How can I become a leader? This question pops up quite often with the assumption that there is some magic formula for leadership lying around somewhere. There isn’t. People want us to tell them “the five easy steps to become a leader”. But, they don’t exist. How great it would be if leadership could be reduced to a simple formula. We only wish that it were this easy and that we had the answer.

We would be famous!

Whenever you see a book or hear of a training program promising that by following their proven method you will become a great leader, instead of signing up, be very wary of their promise. You do not become a leader simply by what you read or attend.

This does not mean that any self-improvement through literature or training is impossible. By all means, it is imperative that you develop behavioral qualities and skills if you want to lead. Case in point, leadership requires certain behavioral qualities like character, vision and creativity. Without these characteristics it is difficult for a person to lead.

Think about this, would you want to follow a person with no vision? What if she or he were not a person of character? Would you follow this person? The answer is a resounding no. We are sure that you desire to follow a person that inspires you and that you respect. Now ask yourself this question, what do people see when they look at me as a leader? Do others want to emulate me?

Throughout our careers, we have heard it said, repeatedly, Leadership requires thick skin. One of our favorite quotes on leadership is, “Unless you are being kicked in the rear, you are not in the lead.” Leadership is challenging and will bring with it resistance. Therefore, it is important that a leader have the skills of resilience, expertise in their field, and cultural fluency.

In leadership there is no room for the sole proprietor. If no one is following, you are not leading. The priority of leadership is working well with people. It requires skills to build partnerships and alliances. Leaders must be able to communicate and collaborate well with others.

One of the major facets of leadership is developing others; it is not good enough to have other people follow you. Every person who leads is in a role to coach others. Coaching sees the potential in others and then develops and encourages that potential. Leaders who coach are known for the people they develop.

It is also important for leaders to know how to share their knowledge. Great leaders are known more for what they give away than what they do. What knowledge are you giving away?

One last point about the skills for leadership is that a leader must have a global perspective. There is no denying or escaping the fact that the world is interconnected at so many levels. On any given day, we are exposed to and influenced by the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and the West. Learning to leverage this global network of mutuality will increase your opportunities abroad and at home.

You must realize, however, that acquiring a certain behavior and skills doesn’t automatically make you a leader. It’s just a starting point, and what you do next is what determines your leadership. It is also about you, your belief in yourself as a leader and what you do with the skills in order to achieve results.

For decades leadership has been taught as a science. The “experts” have taken the subject matter of leadership into the laboratory and dissected it and put it through all sorts of rigorous testing. The result was a simple formula. The world then applauded the “experts” and their experiments, without ever realizing that the experiment wasn’t over.

We have talked to people all around the world who have adopted the findings of these “experts” and failed miserably. Had they tested the results, they would have observed that the “experts” findings are unfounded. Why? Because leadership is not a science.

Leadership is an art.

Imagine with us what it would be like if today we went to the best leadership seminar in the world. While there, we heard fantastic teaching on the skills of leadership, and we actually believed that we could become great leaders. Then tomorrow we returned to work with our memorized tools, but with no action on incorporating them into our life. Are we leaders? Are we any better off? No! On the contrary, we are worse off, because we think we have become leaders, but in reality we have no idea.

This realization shows us that leadership is an art, a real art. Think about how ridiculous this scenario would be: You go to the art store and buy all of the supplies. You select the best brushes; you purchase oil paints in so many vibrant colors. You decide on a top quality canvas and have it stretched perfectly. Then you top it all off with a fabulous dark blue French beret and return to your rented studio and put up a sign that says: “Artist.” Are you really a professional painter? For that matter are you even a run-of-the-mill painter? You could be, only if you know what to do with the supplies that you purchased and if you actually use them. Becoming a painter is much more than the accumulation of the supplies and becoming a leader is more than amassing your skills. Art, and leadership, appears from what you do with what you already have.

Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. once said…”There always has been difficulty in understanding and practicing real leadership. That’s because it is more of an art than a science.”

So, let’s now ask the first question again. Is it possible for anyone to become a leader? Yes, if they believe that it’s possible, acquire and express the skills of leadership. But, you may quickly argue, “What if I am not in a position of leadership?!” Answer: since when did the position make someone a leader? We have all observed many men and women who have the title, the office and the position, but they still are not great leaders. We can also list many people who do not have the position, the office or the authority, yet they are great leaders.

Think back to the elementary school playground. We do not know about your school, but at the schools we attended, there were not any designated leadership positions on the playground for the kids. Still, some kids took charge and led. Just for fun, visit the local playground during recess and observe the leadership that some of the students exert.

The business world is full of people who work in front-

line jobs and express great leadership; and many who hold the positions but do not lead. From our experience, we can assure you that we did not get to where we are by waiting on someone to give us a position of leadership in order to lead. We did and we do lead wherever we are.

So, no matter where you are, whether, you are a general manager or a clerk in the back office, you can lead. After all, all you have to remember is that leadership is the art or expression of all your skills. How do you do this?

Great question! Let’s go back to the painting example. Say, that you want to become a great painter. You buy the supplies, then what? Along with learning how to use the supplies, you need to remember that you have to just use them. The paint isn’t going to put itself on the canvas.

Start brushing!

To become a leader, you start where you are with what is in your sphere of influence, believe that you have the ability and identify the skills that you need to learn more about. Look above and select areas that you need to acquire more training or information about. Then do it. Act! Once you have learned about the skill, by reading or attending a seminar, start using it. You only lead by taking action.

Leadership is this simple – believe in yourself, understand the skill and express it.

Be the Best!

By Tommy Weir and Christine Crumrine, from the Beirut-

based CrumrineWeir, the global leadership experts. For more information, visit www.crumrineweir.com

 

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Battling the tide

by Anthony Mills February 1, 2004
written by Anthony Mills

Saudi billionaire Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal’s recent $98 million purchase of a 49% share in the satellite broadcasting arm of leading Lebanese television station LBC International has provided a welcome, if modest, boost to Lebanon’s satellite television sector. The industry has been struggling to compete with cash-laden Gulf channels like market leader MBC and Abu Dhabi TV – both backed financially by their respective governments – and to overcome the roughly $30 million, or 20%, loss in 2003 television advertising revenues caused, according to LBC Chairman Pierre Daher, by the war in Iraq and the bombings in Riyadh.

“The move has reinforced the position of LBC as a potential leader in the region,” stated Daher. “Walid bin Talal did not make this jump into LBC just because he felt like it. It was carefully planned. He thinks LBC has potential,” said Daher, who discounted the suggestion that bin Talal, who bought the stake in LBCSAT – valued at $200 million – from Arab Radio and Television (ART) chairman Sheikh Saleh Kamel, might wish to exert editorial pressure on the station. Meanwhile, other Lebanese stations are hoping the development signals a trend that will allow them to forge similar strategic, financially rewarding partnerships.

Not everyone, however, is optimistic. “Lebanon’s satellite television channels have serious problems,” remarked one media professional. “LBC and Future were very good satellite TV stations until the Gulf people decided to invest more in their TV stations. Now you have private stations like LBC and Future competing with MBC, which is funded by the Saudi government, with Abu Dhabi TV, backed by its government, and with al-Jazeera. They can’t compete.” He said annual satellite television budgets had in some instances, in the Gulf, quadrupled in two years, from about $25 million, to $100 million. Lebanese channels, although just as creative and aptly managed, have been left financially adrift in the wake.

The bin Talal move has at least consolidated LBC’s position at the head of the Lebanese satellite television sector. Future TV remains hot on its heels. “It’s mainly LBC and Future that are making money,” said the chairman and general manager of NBN, Nasser Safieddine. “Apart from them, I don’t think any Lebanese station is making serious income from the satellite market.”

Of bin Talal’s foray into LBC, he said: “All of us in the Lebanese media welcome this. A boost for any Lebanese station is a boost for the whole sector,” he said, before adding, “NBN is looking for a strategic partner. We are not ashamed to say this. Because competing, as we do today, with stations that have budgets that are 10, 15, 20 times as big as ours is useless.”

Bin Talal’s establishment of the 24-hour music channel, Rotana – backed by a music production company, and using the old Lebanese MTV infrastructure – has also been hailed as a smart business move that also benefits Lebanon’s satellite TV sector. “Rotana is different. It is a complete organization. It takes care of music production television programming. I think that very soon they will be the leaders of music television in the Arab world,” said one media executive. “And it’s good for Lebanon. It’s money coming in.” “People get fed up with news. They want something different,” added another. “It’s a good move,” agreed Safieddine. “It’s easier to market music and songs than educational programs.”

LBCI has been sub-contracted by the American Harris Corp, which has won a $96 million contract to refurbish Iraq’s official media to train Iraqi anchorpersons.

Still, old habits prevail. The weekly LBC political satire show Bass Mat Watan was suspended at the end of last month by the National Audiovisual Media Council (NAMC) after it played a practical joke that, according to the government body, “harmed the image and authority of the state, and shook the country’s stability”. At the end of 2003, New TV owner Tahseen Khayyat was arrested on charges of treason. All agreed the move constituted a politically motivated attack on the media. Khayyat was released 25 hours later and the charges were dropped. “On the face of it, it looks that way,” remarked Walid Azzi, publisher of ArabAd. “It’s not very reassuring,” noted another newspaper executive. “It was harassment.” Safieddine said he felt Khayyat should not have been arrested, but, interestingly, defended self-censorship as a “wonderful thing.”

Lebanon’s print media, for their part, are reeling under a double scourge: miserable circulation figures and worryingly low advertising expenditures, which observers say dropped by 25% last year. Although the market is characterized by an abundance of publications, especially magazines, most are unable to survive without continual financial top-ups. A vicious circle has, in effect, been created: no one wants to advertise in a publication that doesn’t sell. But publications need advertising revenue to expand circulation. Currently, only 16% to 17% of media-related advertising budgets are spent on the print sector, claimed one publisher. This is due, in great part, to the fact that “no magazine sells more than 3,000 copies and no newspaper reaches more than 10,000 readers,” asserted ARABAD publisher Azzi. However, publishers constantly inflate readership figures – sometimes by as much as 50% to 60%. The tendency has become more pronounced, Azzi lamented, as journalistically below-par, spit-and-stick magazines mushroom and compete. “Spitting and sticking is very easy to do, but it’s not journalism,” he said. “You need quality, in-depth journalism and innovation to get a magazine rolling and to get advertising.”

In the struggling print media, An Nahar leads the pack both in terms of quality and advertising revenues, observers agreed. “It’s run by master professionals and has acquired a great deal of integrity. This is why it gets the lion’s share of advertising,” said Azzi. A one-page ad in An Naharcosts between $8,000 and $14,000.

However, even An Nahar is feeling the financial pinch, particularly as its has just bought back, for a considerable, undisclosed sum, Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 34.5% stake in the paper. In the shadow of An Nahar follow As Safir and L’Orient le Jour, and then the Daily Star. The latter two need to be developed, said Azzi, adding that the Daily Star in particular must not make the mistake of thinking it can rest on its laurels because it is the only English-language paper in town. Daily Star Executive Editor Rami Khouri is attempting to ensure that does not happen. The regional Daily Star is undergoing expansion-oriented change, he said. It is now being printed in Lebanon, Kuwait and Qatar and is being sold in 11 countries. “We’re becoming a truly regional paper in terms of our coverage and distribution. We’re making serious ongoing changes in content,” said Khouri, adding that the regional Daily Star aims to become the leading English-language Middle East newspaper with analysis, commentary, insight and interpretation. The Daily Star is not placing as much emphasis on straight news because it believes readers obtain this from other, local papers or from electronic media. To this end, it has developed a still-expanding network of about 150 contributors from around the world.

Meanwhile, the new newspaper Al Balad has elicited mixed reactions and prognoses. “It’s still early to judge,” remarked a cautious Azzi, although he commended the paper’s marketing efforts. Striking a more positive note, NBN General Manager Safieddine said: “I think it’s a very intelligent move. I think they moved into the market in an intelligent way.” An Nahar editor Tueni said he hoped the Al Balad would succeed because competition was good for the market but added that he did not regard the paper as a direct competitor of either An Nahar or As Safir because it’s profile was different: less political and serious. “I haven’t had any reaction,” said LBC Chairman Daher. “It’s new. But I read a paper for politics. Until now, I haven’t seen an editorial line in Al Balad. The rest is nice, but I am not sure I would by a paper for the rest.” Al Balad is currently sorting out a dispute with the Order of the Press, which has accused it of ‘dumping’ its copies at a price forbidden by applicable laws. A newspaper comprising more than 24 pages cannot be sold for less than LL2,000 – Al Balad is selling for LL1,000.

A spokesperson for Al Balad said that after meeting with Order of the Press representatives the newspaper realized it had a stark choice: raise the price or diminish the number of pages. “We will not diminish the number of pages,” the representative stated clearly, “because that would change the nature of Al Balad.”

Industry insiders have suggested that pressure was brought to bear on Al Balad over the pricing issue because of the paper’s apparent support for An Nahar editor Gebran Tueni in his dispute with Nabih Berri. Tueni had implied in an editorial that Berri was involved in the Union des Transports Africains, the company that owned the plane that crashed off Cotonou, Benin, on Christmas day. The idea was, the insiders said, that a ‘rebel’ Al Balad should be tamed – made to understand that, in the view of the Order of the Press, a new newspaper must refrain from siding with the ‘wrong’ party in disagreements involving important politicians.

Would that the industry watchdogs be always so lynx-eyed in their patrolling of the sector. Although there is widespread acknowledgement that the orders have helped defend freedom of the press in Lebanon, many media professionals argued that the two organizations’ directors have used the bodies to bolster their personal prestige rather than to remedy the sector’s ills, and that qualified journalists are being barred entry because they are not at one with the orders’ directors. “These positions are not there to give you prestige. They are supposed to enable you to see exactly what is going on in the business, so that you can correct things,” noted one publisher, who asked not to be identified. “This is not happening.” Mohamad Baalbaki, president of the Order of the Press, denied the claims. “This is not true,” he said. “Whoever says this, doesn’t know the reality of our activities in the order” Qualified journalists had not, he said, been deliberately denied entry. But, he explained, their membership must be approved in a meeting held by an eight-member committee comprising four senior members of the boards of the Journalists and Press Orders respectively. A minimum of five board members must be in attendance for a membership application to be approved. Unfortunately, for two years, no meeting has been held because no board member from the Order of Journalists is willing to show up. “If the representatives of the other order don’t attend the committee meetings the committee cannot make a decision on memberships. Our colleagues in the other order, especially its president, Melhem Karam, don’t like to come to these committee meetings. He prefers not to expand the membership in his order. We are constantly asking him to come to a meeting where membership requests can be studied. He is always busy or traveling,” said Baalbaki. The committee last met, acknowledged Baalbaki, “about two years ago.”

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Shipping Forecast

by Thomas Schellen February 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Marked by an insider language and a particular way of life, modern shipping and transportation has long established its very own culture of connecting nations, cultures, and markets. It has a history of its own, which reaches farther back than that of most other economic activities. Today, the industry consists of a huge variety of services and business specializations, and plays a significant role in the global economy.

Compared to its past roles in facilitating international trade and exchange and also viewed against national economic ambitions, Lebanon’s place in transportation has been small – one can even go as far to say dismal. The contribution of the transportation and shipping sectors to GDP is, in typical fashion, not precisely determined. For a nation reputedly mired in mercantilism, Lebanon recently has been awfully short on transportation essentials, beginning with ships and rigs.

With less than 100 vessels (the number exceeded 300 before 1975), the merchant fleet is not only marginal in size but also overage and, critics say, to a large part technically obsolete. Trucking is an underdeveloped industry too, where no government incentives are extended to either individual owner/operators or fleet owners. Banks are said to be overly reluctant in engaging into financing of either merchant vessels or trucks.

Governmental budget allocations to transportation have shrunk in the past five years. In 2002, the expenditure was 2%, and, as throughout the reconstruction era, the vast majority of these funds were committed to boost the infrastructure.

On the side of road construction, acceptable improvements were achieved but progress has been slower than intended, and nothing at all has progressed with respect to rail. Of all infrastructure measures, the airport rehabilitation and expansion project is most complete, even though it was weighed down with expectations that could not be met in the projected time frame.

In both sea and air transportation, Lebanon’s long-term hope and aspiration is to function as a regional transportation hub. The country’s shipping and transport experts have placed their strongest bets on sea-to-sea transshipment, whereby large container “mother” vessels would call on Beirut Port to unload and load cargo to smaller vessels that provide feeder service to regional ports, to Cyprus, Turkey, Syria, Egypt and eventually the Palestinian territories.

Sea-to-land transshipment plays a lesser role in the scenarios because of the limitations on ground transportation, which protectionist practices of governments in the region have created. Local players have voiced higher hopes for succeeding in multi-modal transportation that would also integrate air shipping into a regional hub function. Beirut, with its port and airport, has momentous potential to fulfill the function. Public sector entities have made industry-wide lauded efforts to improve operations of the facilities, reduce red tape, and act upon suggestions by the shipping industry. However, other ports and airports in the region are competing for the coveted role. The port of Tartous – a strong candidate for growth in the opinion of local experts – last year was granted a 50 million euro expansion loan by the European Investment Bank. In a venture that analysts considered less promising, the Israeli government only last month commissioned a feasibility study for a proposed railroad to link its Mediterranean and Red Sea ports and, in this way, establish a niche role in transshipment. Although the discussion over creating a transshipment hub in Lebanon has been very involved, the country still needs to convince all around that it does not only talk-the-talk of transportation but is able to walk-the-walk.

The good news is that beyond verbal commotion over the Lebanese possibilities, chances prevail for real motion in the transport sector. In air travel, national carrier MEA has been resuscitated and outlooks for passenger travel in 2004 are among the economy’s most positive indicators. Aware of this potential, new companies are targeting Beirut for charter and corporate aviation business.

The hottest current optimism factor in the shipping industry is Iraq. Although freight forwarding to Lebanon’s former top Middle Eastern trade partner still presents great security concerns due to the activities of insurgents, the second half of 2003 has already shown that the ports of Tripoli and Beirut could increase cargo throughput to Iraq. Here, 2004 could become the first year of a new future for the Lebanese shipping industry and, within realistic regional possibilities, see the country enter a new phase in writing forth its contribution to the very hands-on culture of connecting nations by shipping.

The alternative wouldn’t be pretty. At least for sea transportation, failure to bring Beirut up to transshipment hub function might condemn the ancient trade center to ‘walk the plank’ and fully plunge into shipping marginality.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

In the red

by Executive Staff January 1, 2004
written by Executive Staff

It would not be difficult to state that 2003 did not witness the fulfillment of the economic and financial objectives, which had been announced at the time of Paris II meeting in November 2002. Indeed, the gap between the stated and realized objectives is quite wide. It might be recalled that by mid-2002 the Lebanese economy was facing a three dimensional problem: a slow, not to say stagnating economy, a rapidly rising public debt (over $31 billion at the end of 2002) and worrying depletion of the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank as a result of its attempts to defend the stability of the Lebanese pound. As of June 2002, the net foreign exchange reserves of central bank were negative. Indeed, the document presented to the meeting by the Lebanese government had warned that unless external support was forthcoming, the corrective measures that the government had planned to put in place would not, on their own, be sufficient to prevent a financial, and ultimately social, crisis. The financial support pledged in Paris provided the government with a financial reprieve it was badly in need of, and the market sentiment changed, permitting the central bank to try to recoup the losses it had suffered in the previous period. Further, it was able to enter into swap arrangements with Lebanese commercial banks for the purpose of reducing the interest rates carried by the exiting stock of public debt. Briefly, the support derived from Paris II, along with domestic measures (decreasing public expenditure and raising revenues) were supposed to reduce the outstanding public debt and the level of the debt burden, (i.e. to reverse the debt dynamics) and lead to a decline in rates on domestic debt and thus give a fresh impetus to economics growth, projected at about 3% for 2003. Prior to Paris II, the government had announced that the 2003 budget deficit was to be reduced to 25% of expenditure (in comparison with over 40%for the previous year) and that privatization measures were being planned.

In fact, a different picture emerged during 2003. While the central bank was able to regain its foreign exchange reserves (it publishes its gross but not net holdings of foreign exchanges), fiscal developments have been discouraging. The fiscal deficit for 2003 is expected to be close to 40% percent of expenditure instead of the announced 25%. The outstanding public debt has continued to grow, standing at $32.8 billion at the end of October 2003 compared with $31.4 billion at the end of 2002. The debt burden has not eased, being estimated at $3.1 billion for 2003, which is roughly the same level for 2002. The hoped for a decline in interest rates on domestic debt was more limited than had been expected. The process of privatization has stalled due to differences of opinion on how best to tackle it. Finally, the projected rate of growth is expected to be less than what had been projected.

Some observers tend to think that political disagreements are the major cause behind the deteriorating situation. While such squabbles may impact negatively economic and financial developments, they are not necessarily the major cause. Let us not forget that in preceding periods that witnessed political harmony, there also occurred a deteriorating financial and economic situation. In fact, the decline in Lebanon’s rate of growth began after 1994 and the rapid growth in public debt began after 1993. I do not wish to minimize the impact of political tensions and disagreements, but I think the problem goes beyond that. To a large extent it is related (along with other factors) to poor institutional performance, which has burred the distinction between public and private interests and constrained the proper formulation and management of economic policy. Had things been different in this regard, the national economy would not have faced the crisis of 2002, which could only be resolved through substantial external support. Of course it is possible that the national economy may pick up in the absence of proper governance, due say to favorable external circumstances, but then there is no guarantee that proper policy formulation would be in place to help cope with existing macro-economic imbalances or to avert potential future crises. While it is important to understand and appreciate the technical aspects of economic policy, it behooves us to place it in the wider political economy picture. Samir Makdisi is a Professor of Economics and the Director of the Institute of Financial Economics at the American University of Beirut

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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The Buzz

Need help?

by Fay Niewiadomski January 1, 2004
written by Fay Niewiadomski

Dear President, Director-General (PDG), Do you know just how high you have soared? Could it be that you have reached an altitude with a dangerously rarefied atmosphere? Could it be that your tower has become so high and so secluded that you no longer see or hear what is happening on TERRA FIRMA?

When last did you ask yourself the kind of questions that would help you redefine your destination and adjust your inner compass? When last did you listen to anybody, let alone those who say things you don’t like to hear? Possibly there aren’t many of those around. It is definitely more convenient for subordinates and ‘friends’ to say the ‘right’ thing rather that the ‘honest’ thing. People need their jobs, after all, and even more so when the economy is in deep recession. Of course, you have major problems to cope with. After 20 years of war and stagnation, and another 10 years in intensive care, businesses have been trying to wake up from their comas, new ones have been coming to life and growing so rapidly that there is little time to adjust to practical realities, much less to the psychological changes necessary. Still, others have ‘died’ or are now on their ‘deathbeds.’

I know it is not a very flattering picture. Can it get better? It is possible, if you are prepared to take off your rose-tinted glasses, remove your earplugs, and take a walk through the ‘uncomfortable streets of reality.’ Then, after taking everything in, you make the painful decisions, which may be necessary for your corporate survival.

Let us make a rapid review of where we are and actually have been for quite some time:

1. Thinner and thinner profit margins have triggered an exodus of business from Lebanon to other countries in the region where conditions are more conducive to industrial prosperity. Unemployment and poverty is not the best recipe for the growth of any business.

2. Obsolete rules, regulations and systems are no longer applicable but are still being used to address contemporary challenges. The ‘solution’ is to ‘get around it’ rather than change it. Without change and adaptation, we are not even stagnating but going rapidly backwards.

3. Three generations of staff with very different outlooks and job expectations work in your organization. They have problems communicating with or accepting each other.

4. You have a lot of ‘deadwood’ inherited from the days when it was hard to say ‘no’; and now, although these persons cannot really make added-value contributions to you organization, you are ‘stuck.’ However, they also have nothing to fall back on, so you face a dilemma when considering your options.

5. You face a severe scarcity of the kind of skills needed to compete in today’s markets.

6. There is an absence of systems to regulate organizational growth because the old ones are obsolete and the new ones have yet to be created.

7. Do not forget the misplaced staff that got into jobs they could barely fill when the job market was extremely limited.

8. There are no places for promoting staff because either the ‘deadwood’ or the ‘senior staff’ forms a ‘low and hard’ ceiling. Many of those seniors still have 10 to 15 years before retirement and family-business owners tend not to retire until they die.

9. You also need to restructure the entire organization while keeping it profitable and growing.

10. There are a lot of things for which you don’t have the expert manpower and for which you don’t have the time yourself, and yet these are pressing needs.

11. Long-term survival and growth indicates moving towards a more corporate approach to business and away from ‘family’ business while maintaining an acceptable ‘balance of power’ and control.

12. Don’t forget that you are human too and that you need supportive and flexible management structures, along with a multidisciplinary team of advisors to support you in the increasingly complex technological and market-driven business environment.

13. You may not be able to get high calibre staff due to the steady exodus of qualified young men and women looking for opportunities to fulfil their professional ambitions, because such opportunities seem to be ‘an impossible dream’ for them in purely Lebanese organizations.

The list could be much longer and more detailed, but let’s be practical and stick to essentials.

Tell me, when was the last time you visited the offices next door, or sat down and had a discussion for longer than five minutes with some of your key officers? Have you recently visited any of your widely distributed offices and outlets? Could you be in danger of working to realize a futuristic organization for which you neither have the infrastructure nor the manpower? Strategists, tend to hate details, but they do need to do one of two things to secure the proper growth of their organizations:

1. Take the time to personally look at and listen to what is happening ‘on the ground,’ or

2. Work with a team of experts that complement their capabilities by providing a ‘wide-angle’ and multi-disciplinary view of the situation, so that plans get built on a solid foundation of realities.

When the pressure gets to be too much, we all tend to insulate ourselves by not listening to anybody and by persuading ourselves that we have an intuitive capability or ‘flair’ to tell right from wrong without facts or figures to support our claims. This is a very fragile position from which the PDG plays the role of ‘god’. Remember Oedipus the King? His unrelenting investigations to find his father’s murderer led to the most horrible discovery: he, himself, was the unwitting perpetrator of that crime and of other sins so ugly, he wilfully put out his own eyes, so that he would never again be able to see the light or day or have to look at the embodiment of his own sins. One of the key themes of this classic drama is: “those who climb highest, fall hardest.”

Dear PDG, first of all, get rid of that title. Either keep the ‘P’ and get another competent person to take the ‘DG’ or vice versa, depending on which role you do best. This title is good for small, 50-person organizations, but not for 500-person organizations. The bottleneck you are creating when executives have to wait six months to two years to see you is costing you hundreds of thousands of dollars in wasted production time and opportunity losses in the same denomination. Your decision-making procedure is so cumbersome that it might as well not exist. Can you really afford to keep on ignoring all this? Do you have to have a fire at your door to realize that “all is not well” in your ‘kingdom.’ It would be so much more profitable if you opened your door and took a reality-check before the fire breaks out in earnest.

What are you afraid of? If you prefer a three-lettered title, why don’t you try CEO, chief executive officer, at least that title suggests that you have a support team and that you are still the chief, but you are all doing different things to manage the organization and keep it profitable. Dear PDG, the organization will always be yours. If you distribute your power more wisely, so that the people who are worth keeping stay around to help you make it bigger and better, you will enlarge the ‘cake’ so there will be plenty to go round for everybody. I close with kind regards and best wishes for a speedy awakening. Hopefully, you will wake up before your competitors do in 2004.

Fay Niewiadomski, founder and managing director of ICTN, has over 30 years of experience in management, consulting, researching, and training. She is currently a consultant to some of the largest Lebanese and regional blue-chip companies.

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Finance

Beating the odds

by Thomas Schellen January 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Optimism has for years been a prominent feature of Lebanese banking, a central nerve embedded into the firm spine of conservatism that upholds the Lebanese banking and finance industries. The country’s banks all have reasons to ooze optimism, given the sector’s overwhelming importance in the national economy and their performance record of deposit security over decades while the country was drenched in deeply flawed politics, violent internal strife, regional warfare, and occupation.

Even if their business had been stagnant last year, Lebanese banks would have enough reasons to feel emboldened by 2003 for two facts. Namely, that they contributed an important onus to the year’s fiscal stabilization through their profitless subscription to special T-Bills and that the sector emerged unscathed from a fraud and mismanagement crisis centering on Bank Al Madina and its opaque business dealings. But far beyond staying afloat and managing the impact of their sacrifice on the altars of fiscal recovery, banking did not at all see a standstill or slacking of growth in 2003.

Nonetheless, banking representatives exhibited one curious change of perspective. Lebanon’s big commercial banks in earlier years had often harbored concerns over basic size limitations they had in comparison to the region’s big banking corporations or the possibility of international competitors intruding onto their markets. At the end of this year, they came to say that Lebanon is too small a market for the deposits under their management. Prominent members of the finance industry viewed 2003 with satisfaction for sector and companies. “The performance of the Lebanese banking sector was generally good in 2003. Annual profits will maintain their 2002 level, even though third-quarter profits were lower than those of the first quarter,” said Saad Azhari, general manager of the country’s largest bank, BLOM. With year-on-year growth of about 23 % in assets and deposits by the end of September, BLOM Bank performed above the sector’s good overall deposit growth, which is expected to reach 15 % for 2003. “As such, our market share in deposits increased to over 15 %,” Azhari said. “The bank’s profitability remained high, given that the first nine months net profits of 2003 reached $66 million.”

The runners up were equally upbeat. Banque Audi announced its third quarter results, claiming an increase in market share to nearly 12% and having captured over 30% of the sector’s total deposit growth. At Byblos Bank, where year-on-year growth of assets and deposits was reported at 39% and 31% at the end of the third quarter, assistant general manager Semaan Bassil told EXECUTIVE, “Relative to what is going on in the market, our profits are more than adequate.”

While the retail banking leaders may have been fortifying their positions, players in specialized banking and finance houses also could spread word of good tidings. “The main point in 2003 for us was a 17% increase in deposits and 20% growth in profitability, as values BEMO is expecting to close the year with” said Ronald Yazbek, assistant general manager at Banque Europeenne pour le Moyen Orient (BEMO). The bank had been strengthening its specialization on private and corporate banking and already harvested the first fruits of measures such as expanding its private banking team and entering into a partnership with Riyadh-based Banque Saudi Fransi. At another specialized bank, an executive did unhesitatingly express his pleasure over the mid-sized institution’s performance, even as asset growth would be below the sector average. “We are pursuing the opposite strategy, emphasizing profit growth and not asset growth,” he said, “2003 was an excellent year. But 2004 will be challenging.”

Cautious notes dominate the melodies, which many in the choir of banking leaders intone regarding the coming year. “As for 2004, we expect a squeeze in banks’ profitability,” Azhari said, giving as the first main reasons for the lowered outlook that banks’ stock of high-interest T-Bills acquired pre-Paris II would mature in the course of the year, along with high-interest, two-year deposits with the central bank. As a second reason, the BLOM executive named “higher decrease in interest rates on loans and advances as compared to the decrease in interest rates on deposits, thus leading to further drops in banks’ interest margins.”

His bank expects continuous asset growth, he added, “and we will have to redouble our efforts to maintain the same level of profits as in 2003, due to the reasons that apply to the banking sector as a whole.”

Current profit margins cannot be sustained in 2004, concurred Bassil. “Banks will have to be more stringent in provisioning,” he said, “this will result in lower net profits.” Lower growth in the economy and lower profitability would lead Byblos and other banks to rationalize, restructure and consolidate their business. “It will push banks to rationalize faster, more systematically, and assure that every dollar spent will bring a certain level of return.”

“We don’t see any problems, to the contrary, we see very good prospects for the coming year. For us, 2004 is very positive,” Yazbek opined in a vote of fundamental optimism. BEMO is less exposed than others to certain risks, and expects further benefits from the base it created in 2003. More detailed, BEMO anticipates a boost for the business at its Cyprus branch after Cyprus becomes full EU member next May, and also foretold “good synergies” that would arise for the Beirut operation from BEMO’s participation with Saudi-Fransi in the new Syrian banking venture, scheduled to assume operations still before end of 2003. As far as upward expectations for the coming year at BLOM, Azhari pointed out expansion plans in the local and regional markets, including opening two new branches here, a third in Amman, and the launch of the “Bank of Syria and Overseas” in Damascus in early 2004. Bassil similarly emphasized that Lebanese banks would need to utilize growth opportunities in other countries. Bank Byblos’ venture in Sudan signified a pioneering achievement for the entire sector here by marking the first instance in which a Lebanese bank addressed a local market abroad. “Sudan is an important step for us, a test and learning curve,” he said. “We will be putting all our efforts and energy into it over the coming period, and after one or two years, will see the outcome.”

Compared to the banking sector, Lebanon’s financial firms still have large uncharted territories to explore at home. For financial institutions, brokers and trading houses, 2003 was a year of regaining much needed momentum. At independent finance house Financial Funds Advisors (FFA), chairman Jean Riachi sounded exceedingly satisfied in comparison to the past few years. “2003 was a good year for us in terms of increasing our customer account base,” he said. “We have also seen an increase in terms of revenue, knowing that we are coming from a low base because 2001 and 2002 were bad years.” FFA received good responses to funds it was marketing in collaboration with a European issuer, GLG, and could embolden the volume of its money management business. Similar moods prevailed at the Arab Finance Corporation (AFC). “The company is doing much better than last year at this point in time,” said general manager Tarek Ahdab. “AFC is positioned to profit from any upturn in the market. In the past six months, we saw a nice upturn.” Both finance houses implemented new internet-based trading facilities in 2003. FFA launched online currency trading at the end of the summer and AFC introduced two platforms in autumn, AFC Futures and AFC Securities. Even as they expect 2004 to continue the positive trends of the last six months, brokers and finance houses restrain these hopes to their activities on international markets where the outlooks are great. “In my opinion, we are at the beginning of a long-term bull market,” Riachi said, adding as general note of caution “but I could be wrong.”

By contrast, Riachi’s view on domestic financial markets resembles a sheer outpouring of positive will power. “We have not surrendered to the idea that the Lebanese market is dead,” he said. “We desperately believe that it can be revived. It is our raison d’etre.” AFC similarly would see their true edge in the local and regional markets while relying on trading in international markets on behalf of its clients for their bread and butter business. ”We are reasonably optimistic about the country,” Ahdab said, but the firm’s strategy would remain focused on electronic trading platforms and foreign markets, plus continuing to build the client base and increasing advisory business in steady and slow growth. “We are in a tough business in a tough environment, competitor wise, local market wise, and in relation to political and geopolitical risks. Any progress is going to be a slow one.”

With important measures for the regulation of Lebanon’s financial markets still outside of visibility, advocating Beirut as base of a financial firm is still a tough challenge, but the FFA chairman insisted that it would be viable. “Disposable wealth exists and the rate of new account openings [at FFA] is accelerating,” he said. “We believe our model – a small finance house in Beirut serving people for their investments – is working for us. We could even increase it. But unfortunately, we don’t see a great deal of interest in the Lebanese market.”

Where Lebanese bankers and finance house managers echo each other in agreement is their views on the impact of fateful national decisions (or indecisions) on their business. End-of-service reforms and public sector productivity increases are a must for Lebanon, along with privatization and securitization of state assets, Azhari said. “The implications of further delays will negatively affect the level of the public debt and the budget deficit. Consequently, the national and international confidence in the recovery of the Lebanese economy and in finding a permanent solution to the budget deficit’s problem will quickly vanish.” “The last few years were tough. However, it could still get worse,” said Ahdab. “Anything that stops or slows reforms is not going to have a good impact. If debt continues to grow and they never privatize, things could get worse.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Toy story

by Anissa Rafeh January 1, 2004
written by Anissa Rafeh

Providing established brands at an affordable price has helped Toy Market Trading sell an estimated $14 million worth of toys in 2003. This represents 35% of the $40 million local toy market and it has China to thank. Cheaper operating costs have allowed the major international toy manufacturers to be more competitive and Toy Market Trading today imports 90% of its toys from the growing industrial superpower. “You get what you pay for in China,” said Wael Sinno, toy division manager at Toy Market Trading and son of Kamal Sinno, who founded the company in 1973. “All the main US toy brands like Chicco and Mattel have factories there.” The China factor, coupled with a slashing of import tariffs from 25% to 5%, has seen Toy Market Trading experience an 8% year-on-year growth for 2003, despite a wintry economic climate. Toy Market Trading – which distributes its products to 750 retailers, including BHV, Spinneys and Fahd Supermarket – employs a staff of 52 as well eight salesmen covering the Lebanese market and three drivers employed to distribute the goods.

Understandably, 40% to 45% of annual revenues come from Christmas and other holiday sales, but the summer season, from April to August, are also crucial selling months because of the sales of outdoor sports items, including bikes, skateboards and pool accessories, among others.

According to Sinno, an average parent or child will spend approximately $300 to $350 on toys per year, with an average of $10 to $15 doled out per toy. During Christmas, however, the average spent per toy increases to about $25 to $35. Toy Market Trading, however, aims to offer clients a wide variety of affordable toys of good quality by providing two to three brands of similar products in different price ranges. “We cater to all types of budgets, even if that means we compete against our own products,” explained Sinno.

Affordable playthings, like balls and water pistols, and high-end toys, like remote control cars and lifelike dolls, comprise a ratio of 60:40 of cheaper to more expensive toys. Some of Toy Market’s main brands, for example, like Blue Box and Playgo offer products that are as much as 30% cheaper than Fisher-Price toys, even though all three produce similar products for pre-schoolers. Some of the hot selling items this season are “everything funky and trendy,” said Sinno, like the Brats (not distributed by Toy Market Trading), which are the anti-Barbie doll. Toy trends usually last up to a maximum of one to two years, except for classic mainstays like Barbie and Disney toys, which have been successful for years. But coming up with a top seller in toys is becoming increasingly difficult in the computer and internet age, especially with eight- to 10-year olds. As a result, Toy Market Trading has shifted focus on pre-school items, targeting six-month- to five-year-olds. “We now have to be very selective,” said Sinno.

Some of their past successes included the pottery wheel, which sold 12,000 units at about $25 each. Other toy hits imported by the company included an ice-cream maker, and a talking pen made by educational toy brand Clementoni. In addition to their successes, Toy Market Trading has also suffered some misses.

“The pregnant doll was not very well received,” admitted Sinno, who explained that the doll, imported in 1993, came with another plastic baby inside the belly of the main ‘mother’ doll. “It was mainly opposed by religious people.”

Surprisingly, film merchandizing has also not done very well in Lebanon. “HARRY POTTER was a failure and HULK was a disaster,” said Sinno. Only very few films have succeeded in merchandizing in the country. “THE LION KING was a great success – we were selling lions for about three years [when the film was released]. ALADDIN was also a hit.”

Other than dealing with toys that flop, Toy Market Trading and the other importers also have to contend with illegal importers. Sinno admitted that his company loses up to $600,000 a year from smugglers who purchase cheap toys from Dubai – where there are no tariffs – and import them into the country through Syria. In fact, illegal traders are what Sinno consider the greatest competition to his company, and not the three other main importers (Middle East Market, Tamer Freres and Boch).

“Retailers are not going to buy from me at prices 10% higher than smuggled toys. They want the best price they can get and this is understandable,” said Sinno. Sinno explained that the lax laws concerning the toy industry extend further than implementing controls over smuggling. “Lebanon is an open chaotic market that is still underdeveloped with no safety regulations,” he said. As a result of Lebanon’s complete lack of regulations, said Sinno, the Syndicate of Toy Importers and Dealers – which was founded by his father – takes the initiative to not import toys that are unsafe. Most recently, the Syndicate decided to stop importing pellet guns and worked with the ministry of the interior to have them banned. “These guns are made China, but even the Chinese government has banned them,” said Sinno, adding that despite the Lebanese ban, illegal importers have made these dangerous toys available in the country.

Although the smuggling business is indeed lucrative, Sinno has no intention to stray from the straight and narrow. “We go by the book 100%,” he said. It is a policy that has kept them on top of their game, together with a new strategy they have adopted over the past five years to shift the focus on brand loyalty as opposed to just importing Chinese items. “We are now focusing on the brands,” said Sinno, who explained that such an approach, is one way to escape competition and to build loyalty among customers. The strategy seems to be working for the company, which currently enjoys its status as the leading toy importer in the country. As to the secret of their success, Sinno put it simply: “A class products for the most competitive prices.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Finance

Efficiency not mediocrity

by Executive Staff January 1, 2004
written by Executive Staff

In the first nine months of 2003, four main developments were observed: the unexpected rate of growth in bank’s deposits or in monetary aggregate M3, the sector’s participation in easing the state’s debt burden; the reduction of interest rates; the creation of a mechanism to review and settle non-performing loans.

(I) Growth of M3

We were surprised by the extent of the commercial banks’ balance sheet growth, mainly in the deposit base growth. This is reflected by the growth of the monetary aggregate (M3: amount of money in circulation plus deposits at banks), which increased by 14% from September 2002 to September 2003. Usually, M3 grows by real and nominal growth, credit to the private economy plus credit to the public economy and by the changes in net foreign assets (balance of payments) if the balance is positive. M3 decreases if there is flight of money from Lebanon to abroad.

The 14% increase of M3 far outpaced the growth of the economy overall, which reached only 2%. The growth of M3 under normal circumstances should not be larger than the growth of the economy plus a value slightly exceeding inflation. Inflation in Lebanon is around 4%. When added to the 2% real growth, it means that a 7% increase in M3 is justifiable by nominal growth of GDP. But what about the remaining 7%? A notable factor in the development of money supply in 2003 was the inflow of capital to Lebanon. Many sources contributed to this inflow, including:

• $2.4 billion entered the country under commitments from Paris II.

• $1.2 billion was contributed in deposits from non-residents. • $400 million came from the repatriation of foreign deposits.

• $1.0 Billion or more from other capital accounts (i.e. real estate investments etc.).

(II) The Public Debt Service burden

The banking sector’s engagement was instrumental in the facilitation of the drop in public sector debt service through the Paris II mechanism, which acted directly through the acquisition by the banking sector of zero-percent T-Bills contributing to reduce the debt service by $383 million per year. The sector will be indirectly contributing to another LL400 billion in debt service reduction through the subscription to new issues of T-Bills to replace those maturing in 2004.

The interest rate reduction from 14% to 8% is considered “unusual business” and the IMF doubted the banking sector’s ability to decrease the public debt and reduce interest rates.

While the banking community delivered what we promised, the government did not. Primary expenditures – i.e., public expenditures without the debt service – increased instead of decreasing, allowing the fiscal deficit to reach 38% to 39% while the initial budgeted figure was 27%.

(III) The decrease in interest rates

Claims that falls in the interest rate decreases affected only deposits and not lending rates, is wrong. In truth, while the income of banks from deposits with the central bank decreased, double shifting mutation in rates and volumes caused a decrease in the profitability of the banking industry’s credit portfolio.

If we take into consideration not only changes in interest rate but also changes in the structure of invested funds, we can clearly see that the returns on bank placements decreased during the period from September 2002 to September 2003 at a rate wider than the decrease of the cost of the bank’s deposits. This shrunk the margins by 14% for the mentioned period. As the portion in total assets that consists of loans to the private sector decreased, the share of the sovereign risk (central bank and treasury) increased just as dramatically as the public sector lending rates decreased, doubly affecting the profits of banks.

It is thus more accurate to say that the drop in interest rates did not equally reflect on lending to the private sector, which became 12% cheaper, while the sovereign borrower benefited from an interest rate reduction averaging 21%.

(IV) A framework to settle problematic bank loans

After one year of negotiation, a framework to settle non-performing loans (NPLs) on banks’ books was achieved in cooperation with the central bank. This framework applies to both (1) the relation between the banks and its clients and (2) the relation between the banks and the supervisory authorities.

1. In the dealings between banks and clients (debtors), three main pillars govern the relations:

a. Unrealized interest rates are partly written off by applying reduced interest rates on the initial debt stock.

b. The debt stock is reduced by way of acquiring the real estate that served as collateral. Banks acquire these properties at good evaluation agreed upon with the Banking Control Commission. c. The remaining debt balance is rescheduled over a long-term period of five to 10 years, reduced interest rates agreed upon between client and bank.

2) The relation between the bank and supervisory authority is managed through a three-tiered scheme: a. Defining of the accounting methodology in provisions on settled and unsettled problem loans. b. Allowing a long period, up to 20 years, of provisioning of real estate, which banks have acquired from debtors under their loan-rescheduling scheme. c. Granting banks the possibility to rediscount, totally or partially, the securitized debt of the clients with BDL if the bank needs liquid assets to clear its balance sheets. In its entirety, this instrumentation provided for rescheduling of non-performing loans, if well and adequately used by bankers, will support the process of revitalizing the economy and resume new activities through restructuring the corporate sector.

What strategy for the coming years?

Looking towards the future, it is prudent to go beyond analyzing the main developments of 2003, as mentioned above, and review the larger situation of the banking industry and its strategic needs.

For this task, it is helpful to take stock of the numbers as they stand after a decade of strong banking growth. The most telling figure in this context is the ratio between total assets/liabilities held by banks and Lebanon’s GDP. This ratio stands today at 315% by the end of September 2003. It is the highest worldwide among “normal” countries.

How much of these liabilities are invested domestically is key to understanding the Lebanese economy from a banking perspective. Most of these resources are invested locally, therefore, the economy is enduring the cost of these bank’s liabilities. By the end of September 2003, 16% of bank assets were invested abroad, and the remaining 84% in the country (domestic placements). Of these domestic placements, 26% were in the private sector, 54% with the sovereign (23% at the central bank and 31% at the Lebanese treasury) and 4% in fixed and unclassified assets.

In simple terms, the banking sector has outgrown the Lebanese economy and domestic economic growth. It grew eight to 10 times in the last 10 years – while the Lebanese economy did not grow as fast.

Even if interest rates – i.e., the price – decrease further, the quantity of credits and loans to the economy (public and private) will still constitute a heavy weight and therefore a heavy cost on the economy. Capital funds have become very big also compared to domestic needs. Our international capital adequacy ratio exceeds 18% while Basel I Committee has set it at 8%.

Why does the Lebanese banking industry have to turn over a new leaf? The current model of banking growth was sustainable until today because of two factors: 1. The Lebanese community and some Arab funds repatriated part of its wealth to Lebanon, enabling our deposit base to widen without any relation with domestic economic growth. 2. The state, central bank and treasury became our main client (54% of our assets in September 2003) and both of them accepted to extend to a maximum their foreign currency debt. This policy helped a lot by providing fresh blood to this dollarized model in one hand and by providing the banking industry with good placement opportunity in another hand.

This pattern of attracting more funds from abroad can only continue if we keep interest rates at high levels, which are unsustainable by our domestic economy. This is a paradox situation.

When public and private sectors have difficulties to service their debt it is a clear signal that this model is no longer sustainable and should be revisited sooner better than later. This leaves us with the need to export our services abroad as only way to remedy the situation. Two recent signs confirm that the banking industry became too big for the Lebanese economy. The 0% coupon T-Bills to the public sector and the framework to settle the NPLs applying reduced interest rates.

If we want the banking sector to continue to grow and if we want the banking industry to continue to realize profits and good return on equities and assets (ROE, ROA), it has become necessary to diversify our placements to other countries and markets.

That means we have to export our banking services to countries like Syria, Iraq, Armenia, Algeria, Sudan, Libya, and other countries where the banking industry is not developed. We also need to enhance and strengthen our financing services to Lebanese communities abroad, and to look seriously for cross-border mergers and acquisitions with active Arab banking industries.

In summary, international and regional expansion is the only strategy to guarantee sound and further growth of the Lebanese banking industry, entailing three options for development that will not place an undue burden on the national economy of having to carry the weight of the enormous deposits base:

1. Expand into neighboring countries and optimize physical presence there.

2. Supply services in foreign markets, especially to the Lebanese expatriate business community.

3. Penetrate new markets through cross border and regional mergers and acquisitions.

Fortunately, based on the sector’s many strong points, and because over the past ten years we undertook a multi-dimensional restructuring and reorganization of our industry from within the prospects for exporting Lebanese banking services are good.

This reorganization has been characterized by achievements in following areas:

1. We refurbished and improved our human resources. This is a main factor needed to compete regionally and internationally.

2. We introduced very adequate management systems and technologies, including good manuals of policies and procedures.

3. We are complying with international standards in many important areas. Lebanese banks fulfill the current Basle requirements for capital adequacy ratio and the standards set for lending to related parties and lending to a single large borrower. We are also up to global standards in accounting and auditing, and rules on disclosure, transparency and combating money laundering etc. Lebanon has good supervision authorities that operate according to BIS principles of supervision.

4. We acquired during the last 15 years a lot of know-how in dealing with the dollarization of economies and in operating under very aggressive and risky environments.

Lebanon’s banking industry appears to be very well positioned regionally because it fully achieved these improvements and it is very well equipped to more important cross–border activity.

A further avenue for banking sector growth in Lebanon should be mentioned here. This would be to finance industrial activities, which are destined fully for export. To implement this strategy could require collaboration with international organizations to promote our exports. But even more essential for mobilization of Lebanon’s export capacities is a very good vision on behalf of the regulator. This is the role of the government. It should elaborate a new approach, new vision, and new model to induce the growth of our economy.

Fulfilling this role would imply many steps and taking strong measures, examples for which would be interventions with the Arab countries as well as the EU in support of Lebanese exports. It is up to the state as regulatory force in the economy to work towards better conditions for production by providing incentives, decreasing costs and preparing a reliable framework and consistent operating conditions. At the current stage, and in all these matters, one question must be asked: Where is the state? We have a heavy state with limited efficiency and productivity. We urgently need in Lebanon to redefine the role of the state in the economy, to rediscover where is the adequate dosage to be set between the state and the market. This hydride economic model of ultra-liberalism and ultra interventionism in the same time is no more appropriate for our country. We need a much more equilibrated liberal socio-economic model. We need a smaller and more efficient public sector and a state with a real vision for the future. The reason for this culture of NPLs is our non-performing and mediocre state.

The banking community and the banking authority are a necessary part of the problems and solutions of the economy. Whenever we have had a good program we have always been able to deliver our part of it.

Dr. Makram Sader is the secretary general of the Association of Banks in Lebanon

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Capturing Ramadan

by Anissa Rafeh January 1, 2004
written by Anissa Rafeh

It started as the $40,000 pet project of a young entrepreneur in 1995 and ended up a trend that today seems to have been with us forever. The Ramadan tent, originally an Egyptian invention, was stunningly simple in that it offered a venue for people to meet and socialize after breaking the fast. Today, such is their popularity that practically every major hotel has jumped on the bandwagon, raking in as much as $550,000 for the month.

“I came to Lebanon in 1992 after living in Egypt and realized there was nothing to do in the evening for SOHOOR during Ramadan – there was only Barbar,” said Wassim Tabbara, who started the first Ramadan tent eight years ago at the age of 26.

While successfully participating in the organization of an Egyptian week in Lebanon with the Lebanese-Egyptian Association, of which he was a member, Tabbara had the idea of bringing an Egyptian-themed tent to Beirut. Patching together several boy scout tents provided by the Makassid Foundation, and spending about $20,000 on accessories from Egypt – including tablecloths, Egyptian NARGILEHS and an old Egyptian FURN – Tabbara set up shop in a family-owned plot of land by the LAU. With seating for 130 people, the tent was an instant success and packed to capacity every night. The menu offered the traditional SAHOOR fair, including MANAKESH and SAHLAB, and entertainment consisted of NARGILEHS, a TV set and music playing from a cassette deck. There was no cover charge and the average customer spent about $8 to $10. “I had a lot of costs, so I did not make huge profits,” admitted Tabbara, “it was my first experience in the food business.”

It was an experiment, however, that proved successful despite the paltry returns. “Everyone called for reservations, but I did not take any to be fair. So, by 7pm, people would send their drivers to wait in line till we opened at 8pm to reserve tables,” said Tabbara. “When we would tell people they couldn’t come in because we ran out of chairs, they would go home, bring a chair and come back. It was really funny.”

With such popularity, Tabbara had discovered an untapped market, but by the next year, in true Lebanese fashion, others wanted a piece of the action. The Coral Beach and the Escape club both opened tents in 1996. Both provided serious competition to Tabbara’s second tent, which by now had moved to the newly renovated BCD. The second tent saw profits increase fivefold, but by 1997, a sponsorship dispute and government red tape forced Tabbara to abandon his project. By now, Khaymat al Hanna had opened its doors and Tabbara’s previous alliance with Future TV was abruptly severed to solely advertise Bcharra Namour’s venture. After nine days of tough negotiating, Future reinstated its agreement with Tabbara, but as it was nearly two weeks into the month, and much of the financial momentum was already lost. “I was shocked [by Future’s actions],” said Tabbara. “And then the ministry of tourism said they would not give me a permit to open a tent [the next year] because all the hotels complained about the competition. In the end, I just gave up.”

Although Tabbara is no longer in the business for now –

“maybe I’ll come back with a KHAYMI next year” – he certainly paved the way for Ramadan tents today. There is no clearer legacy to his innovation than the splendid tents operated by Lebanon’s finest hotels.

“There is a good market for Ramadan tents, but unfortunately in Beirut, there is no high quality in terms of décor, entertainment and food. That’s why we focus on those parts,” said Simon Saade, food and beverage manager at the InterContinental Phoenicia. “We wanted to have a tent for the people to enjoy the luxury and ambiance of Ramadan.” Part of that luxurious ambiance includes extravagant decorations á la 1001 Nights, which one insider estimated at costing $200,000. Still, with a seating capacity of 640, a relatively full house every night of the month, and the average customer doling out $28 a night on a set menu (not including a NARGILEH), the expense seems worth it. Just across the street, however, is the more rustic Fishawi tent, run by the St. Georges Yacht Motor Club, which does not have a set menu. According to Michel Farhat, the operations manager at the St. Georges, the average client spent about $20 a night at the Egyptian-themed tent, which included a LL10,000 cover charge for the live entertainment.

“The Fishawi tent offered people something simple, an affordable way of capturing the idea of Ramadan,” Farhat explained. “The Phoenicia tent was more upscale.”

Operation costs for running a Ramadan tent vary according to type. At the Phoenicia, for example, about 80% of the tent staff consisted of fulltime employees in the food and beverage department at the hotel, which kept overhead down. “We used our own people to construct everything [in the tent] and we saved money by using our own people. It has proven a successful business experience,” said Saade. For establishments that do not have a hotel’s business to rely on, they are faced with a different situation. For the St. Georges, the Fishawi tent was an effective way of keeping its summertime staff (from it’s beach club) employed during the winter, which would otherwise be a dead season. Farhat estimated overhead costs at $50,000 to $60,000, with $30,000 spent on advertising and live entertainment. At the end of Ramadan, Farhat estimated the revenues of Fishawi at $133,000.

Although hotel and resort ventures have proven successful –Saade admitted that the Phoenicia tent has been packed since it’s opening in 2001 and Farhat said that 2003 profits from Fishawi increased by 10% from 2002 – independents like Tabbara were not so lucky. “I spent $300,000 on my third tent,” said Tabbara, “and I lost 33% of my profits [because of the Future TV deal fallout].” For the first nine days of the holy month, out of the 1,500 seats available, only about 200 to 300 were filled each night – which was catastrophic considering the $80,000 monthly rental fee of the BCD lot. Tabbara also faced backlash from religious clerics, who associated him with tents that featured dancing, although he did not permit such activity at his establishment. “I was very strict about dancing because I knew people would talk about it. But the Mufti sent a representative to talk to me because they [the clergy] did not know any other tent owners.”

Respecting religious customs is very important to most established tents. Almost none serve alcohol or feature racy entertainers like belly dancers. “This is something we can’t joke about; we respect tradition,” said Farhat. It is a notion firmly upheld by the Phoenicia, said Saade. “We respect this month and keep it in high value.”

As for the man who started it all, what is his opinion about the Ramadan tents of today? “I liked the Phoenicia tent; it was very nice,” said Tabbara. “But the problem with tents today is the loud music – you can’t talk to anybody. It would be better if they just lowered the volume.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Finance

Battling debt

by Tony Hchaime January 1, 2004
written by Tony Hchaime

The Lebanese government’s successful efforts to put on hold the almost weekly auction of Lebanese Pound Treasury Bills some nine months ago is a positive development many. Local and international economists attributed the move to the substantial increase in liquidity levels pursuant to the Paris II donor conference held during the fall of 2002. The $4 billion drawn during the Paris II conference, coupled with the $4 billion interest-free loan provided to the government by Lebanese banks, have resulted in a surge in liquidity levels, which allowed the government to stop borrowing locally through T-Bills.

As the year draws to a close, however, the treasury is opening up its auction doors once again, borrowing domestically through the issuance of new T-Bills, with maturities ranging from one year to three years. The motives behind such a move have been debated often among leading bankers and economists, in the light of the performance of the government in 2003, and the new draft budget for 2004.

Initially, the conditions set during the Paris II donor conference included radical fiscal and monetary reforms, proper initiation of the privatization of some state assets, and efforts to securitize the proceeds of others. However it seems that the funds attracted during the conference, as well as the interest-free loan by the banks, have been used to partially reduce interest on some of the public debt, and mostly to cover the steep deficit in the budget.

As such, the money was never intended to solve the problems of the government, but was rather a means to undertake economic reforms and privatization. Such efforts are ultimately used to significantly trim the deficit, spur economic growth and stop the need for additional borrowing – all of which are seemingly beyond any imminent materialization in the case of Lebanon. The money raised in 2002 was used rapidly to cover the budget deficit and has since dried up in less than a year. The direct consequence of such developments is the recently highlighted return to T-Bill auctions.

A major portion of the funds obtained during and pursuant to Paris II was used to replace existing debt obligations with new ones at lower interest rates. This has resulted in the much-lauded reduction in general interest rates in the country. As such, the new T-Bills auctioned by the ministry of finance yield between 6.85% and 8.72%, a significant drop from the 14% or higher yields common prior to Paris II, to levels unseen in over 20 years.

Moreover, it should be taken into consideration that if the government succeeds in maintaining such low interest rates while simultaneously replacing existing high yielding debt with such T-Bills, the overall cost of debt burden would be significantly reduced.

On the other hand, the government’s ability to succeed in such an endeavor should be assessed, given the sizeable deficits in the budget, and the slow pace in the implementation of reforms and privatization plans.

A comparison between borrowings through Treasury bills and the interest rates on such securities shed some light as to the government’s ability to maintain low interest rates (see chart). Historically, lower interest rates have been accompanied by lower levels of borrowing. In essence, there have been rare periods where the levels of T-Bill issues have been sustained with dropping yields.

In economic terms, the yield on any security rises with the risk associated with such a security. In this regard, the government had managed to improve its image and comfort investors following Paris II, with the central bank foreign exchange reserves reaching record highs. Such developments reduced the perception of default risk on the government, devaluation risk on the national currency, and thus justified the lower interest rates on the newly issued T-Bills. Recent developments, however, have begun to raise concerns once again, and political bickering has delayed many critical reform plans. A number of adverse factors are appearing on the horizon and are likely to render investors more risk averse. The regional arena is plagued by the situation in Iraq, increased terrorist activities in Saudi Arabia and Turkey and the slow pace of the peace process. On the domestic front, the scene does not look any better. The year 2004 is expected to witness heated presidential and municipal election campaigns, overshadowed by the Hariri-Lahoud feuds. Furthermore, much uncertainty surrounds the government’s ability to take concrete steps towards economic reforms, privatization, and securitization, and ultimately reduce the debt burden. In essence then, such increasing uncertainties are likely to push interest rates higher in the market, and consequently force the government to offer higher yields on T-Bills if it chooses to pursue this method of borrowing.

On another front, positive signs are beginning to show in the western economies, increasing the likelihood of higher interest rates globally over the next 18 months. Such increases will also have to be reflected in the yields of any securities sold on the Lebanese market, including the government’s Treasury Bills. Some argue that since the central bank will absorb a considerable portion of each issue of T-Bills – as it has done previously – interest rates may be more resilient to upward pressures. Nevertheless, although the central bank has done so occasionally, the bulk remains in the hands of banks and private investors (see chart). This renders interest rates much more sensitive to market pressures.

Banks in Lebanon are known to have profited substantially from T-Bill investments in the past, and are not likely to appreciate the sharply lower returns on similar investments offered currently. Nevertheless, the currently low rates of return on alternative uses of funds may encourage banks to invest in T-Bills. The credit situation in the country has been severely damaged by the economic recession of the past three years, while global interest rates remain at record low levels. In such a sense, the yields of 7% and 8% offered on the new T-Bills do appear attractive. On the other hand, rising global interest rates and improvements in the economic situation in the country could spawn various alternative investment opportunities. A direct correlation exists between the T-Bill yield spread over LIBOR and banks’ portfolios of such securities. As such, it is expected that as global interest rates rise and the spread between Lebanese T-Bill yields and LIBOR narrows, Lebanese banks are likely to trim their T-Bill portfolios in favor of other investments (see chart). Therefore, the government will be forced to raise interest rates to maintain or increase the spread over LIBOR in order to entice banks to keep purchasing T-Bills.

On the income side, recent figures released by banks in Lebanon reveal a marked improvement in the bottom line, despite the lack of T-Bills over the past nine months. Such a development indicates that perhaps banks are no longer as dependent on T-Bill returns as they were in previous years, and that they have successfully sought alternative sources of income.

Pressures on the Lebanese Pound have always been a major topic debated in government circles over the past years and have often put a strain on the central bank’s foreign reserves during its efforts to stabilize the currency.

As the government attempts to lower interest rates across the board through the issuance of T-Bills at markedly lower interest rates, concerns arise as to the impact of such a move on the Lebanese pound. Basic economics stipulate that as interest rates drop in one country relative to others, demand on the domestic currency also drops. In the case of Lebanon, this would theoretically reignite pressures on the Lebanese pound, forcing the central bank to tap into its foreign reserves to offset the pressure.

On the other hand, even the sharply lower interest rates on the Lebanese Pound remain at a significant premium to interest rates on international currencies. As such, the drop in demand on the currency resulting from lower interest rates is likely to be limited in the near term. Conversely though, if global interest rates were to rise, reducing the premium offered on Lebanese pound investments, demand on the currency would begin to drop, and pressures would begin to mount. Nevertheless, such a concern is somewhat distant and of little concern, especially since the central bank has recently accumulated record levels of foreign currency reserves, enough to defend the national currency if need be.

However, while the significantly lower interest rates on the securities would be a welcomed move in terms of reducing the cost of debt burden on the budget, a number of concerns arise based on historical developments and expected future ones.

The ability of the government to maintain the low interest rates is questionable. The use of the funds obtained through such auctions should be closely assessed. Debt levels are continuing to rise, and efforts to trim the budget deficit have yet to meet reasonable success. In such a sense, will the funds obtained through T-Bills be used to facilitate the implementation of economic reforms, privatization and securitization… or will they be used to just cover the deficit and contribute to the growth in our public debt levels?

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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