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Business

Toy story

by Anissa Rafeh January 1, 2004
written by Anissa Rafeh

Providing established brands at an affordable price has helped Toy Market Trading sell an estimated $14 million worth of toys in 2003. This represents 35% of the $40 million local toy market and it has China to thank. Cheaper operating costs have allowed the major international toy manufacturers to be more competitive and Toy Market Trading today imports 90% of its toys from the growing industrial superpower. “You get what you pay for in China,” said Wael Sinno, toy division manager at Toy Market Trading and son of Kamal Sinno, who founded the company in 1973. “All the main US toy brands like Chicco and Mattel have factories there.” The China factor, coupled with a slashing of import tariffs from 25% to 5%, has seen Toy Market Trading experience an 8% year-on-year growth for 2003, despite a wintry economic climate. Toy Market Trading – which distributes its products to 750 retailers, including BHV, Spinneys and Fahd Supermarket – employs a staff of 52 as well eight salesmen covering the Lebanese market and three drivers employed to distribute the goods.

Understandably, 40% to 45% of annual revenues come from Christmas and other holiday sales, but the summer season, from April to August, are also crucial selling months because of the sales of outdoor sports items, including bikes, skateboards and pool accessories, among others.

According to Sinno, an average parent or child will spend approximately $300 to $350 on toys per year, with an average of $10 to $15 doled out per toy. During Christmas, however, the average spent per toy increases to about $25 to $35. Toy Market Trading, however, aims to offer clients a wide variety of affordable toys of good quality by providing two to three brands of similar products in different price ranges. “We cater to all types of budgets, even if that means we compete against our own products,” explained Sinno.

Affordable playthings, like balls and water pistols, and high-end toys, like remote control cars and lifelike dolls, comprise a ratio of 60:40 of cheaper to more expensive toys. Some of Toy Market’s main brands, for example, like Blue Box and Playgo offer products that are as much as 30% cheaper than Fisher-Price toys, even though all three produce similar products for pre-schoolers. Some of the hot selling items this season are “everything funky and trendy,” said Sinno, like the Brats (not distributed by Toy Market Trading), which are the anti-Barbie doll. Toy trends usually last up to a maximum of one to two years, except for classic mainstays like Barbie and Disney toys, which have been successful for years. But coming up with a top seller in toys is becoming increasingly difficult in the computer and internet age, especially with eight- to 10-year olds. As a result, Toy Market Trading has shifted focus on pre-school items, targeting six-month- to five-year-olds. “We now have to be very selective,” said Sinno.

Some of their past successes included the pottery wheel, which sold 12,000 units at about $25 each. Other toy hits imported by the company included an ice-cream maker, and a talking pen made by educational toy brand Clementoni. In addition to their successes, Toy Market Trading has also suffered some misses.

“The pregnant doll was not very well received,” admitted Sinno, who explained that the doll, imported in 1993, came with another plastic baby inside the belly of the main ‘mother’ doll. “It was mainly opposed by religious people.”

Surprisingly, film merchandizing has also not done very well in Lebanon. “HARRY POTTER was a failure and HULK was a disaster,” said Sinno. Only very few films have succeeded in merchandizing in the country. “THE LION KING was a great success – we were selling lions for about three years [when the film was released]. ALADDIN was also a hit.”

Other than dealing with toys that flop, Toy Market Trading and the other importers also have to contend with illegal importers. Sinno admitted that his company loses up to $600,000 a year from smugglers who purchase cheap toys from Dubai – where there are no tariffs – and import them into the country through Syria. In fact, illegal traders are what Sinno consider the greatest competition to his company, and not the three other main importers (Middle East Market, Tamer Freres and Boch).

“Retailers are not going to buy from me at prices 10% higher than smuggled toys. They want the best price they can get and this is understandable,” said Sinno. Sinno explained that the lax laws concerning the toy industry extend further than implementing controls over smuggling. “Lebanon is an open chaotic market that is still underdeveloped with no safety regulations,” he said. As a result of Lebanon’s complete lack of regulations, said Sinno, the Syndicate of Toy Importers and Dealers – which was founded by his father – takes the initiative to not import toys that are unsafe. Most recently, the Syndicate decided to stop importing pellet guns and worked with the ministry of the interior to have them banned. “These guns are made China, but even the Chinese government has banned them,” said Sinno, adding that despite the Lebanese ban, illegal importers have made these dangerous toys available in the country.

Although the smuggling business is indeed lucrative, Sinno has no intention to stray from the straight and narrow. “We go by the book 100%,” he said. It is a policy that has kept them on top of their game, together with a new strategy they have adopted over the past five years to shift the focus on brand loyalty as opposed to just importing Chinese items. “We are now focusing on the brands,” said Sinno, who explained that such an approach, is one way to escape competition and to build loyalty among customers. The strategy seems to be working for the company, which currently enjoys its status as the leading toy importer in the country. As to the secret of their success, Sinno put it simply: “A class products for the most competitive prices.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Finance

Efficiency not mediocrity

by Executive Staff January 1, 2004
written by Executive Staff

In the first nine months of 2003, four main developments were observed: the unexpected rate of growth in bank’s deposits or in monetary aggregate M3, the sector’s participation in easing the state’s debt burden; the reduction of interest rates; the creation of a mechanism to review and settle non-performing loans.

(I) Growth of M3

We were surprised by the extent of the commercial banks’ balance sheet growth, mainly in the deposit base growth. This is reflected by the growth of the monetary aggregate (M3: amount of money in circulation plus deposits at banks), which increased by 14% from September 2002 to September 2003. Usually, M3 grows by real and nominal growth, credit to the private economy plus credit to the public economy and by the changes in net foreign assets (balance of payments) if the balance is positive. M3 decreases if there is flight of money from Lebanon to abroad.

The 14% increase of M3 far outpaced the growth of the economy overall, which reached only 2%. The growth of M3 under normal circumstances should not be larger than the growth of the economy plus a value slightly exceeding inflation. Inflation in Lebanon is around 4%. When added to the 2% real growth, it means that a 7% increase in M3 is justifiable by nominal growth of GDP. But what about the remaining 7%? A notable factor in the development of money supply in 2003 was the inflow of capital to Lebanon. Many sources contributed to this inflow, including:

• $2.4 billion entered the country under commitments from Paris II.

• $1.2 billion was contributed in deposits from non-residents. • $400 million came from the repatriation of foreign deposits.

• $1.0 Billion or more from other capital accounts (i.e. real estate investments etc.).

(II) The Public Debt Service burden

The banking sector’s engagement was instrumental in the facilitation of the drop in public sector debt service through the Paris II mechanism, which acted directly through the acquisition by the banking sector of zero-percent T-Bills contributing to reduce the debt service by $383 million per year. The sector will be indirectly contributing to another LL400 billion in debt service reduction through the subscription to new issues of T-Bills to replace those maturing in 2004.

The interest rate reduction from 14% to 8% is considered “unusual business” and the IMF doubted the banking sector’s ability to decrease the public debt and reduce interest rates.

While the banking community delivered what we promised, the government did not. Primary expenditures – i.e., public expenditures without the debt service – increased instead of decreasing, allowing the fiscal deficit to reach 38% to 39% while the initial budgeted figure was 27%.

(III) The decrease in interest rates

Claims that falls in the interest rate decreases affected only deposits and not lending rates, is wrong. In truth, while the income of banks from deposits with the central bank decreased, double shifting mutation in rates and volumes caused a decrease in the profitability of the banking industry’s credit portfolio.

If we take into consideration not only changes in interest rate but also changes in the structure of invested funds, we can clearly see that the returns on bank placements decreased during the period from September 2002 to September 2003 at a rate wider than the decrease of the cost of the bank’s deposits. This shrunk the margins by 14% for the mentioned period. As the portion in total assets that consists of loans to the private sector decreased, the share of the sovereign risk (central bank and treasury) increased just as dramatically as the public sector lending rates decreased, doubly affecting the profits of banks.

It is thus more accurate to say that the drop in interest rates did not equally reflect on lending to the private sector, which became 12% cheaper, while the sovereign borrower benefited from an interest rate reduction averaging 21%.

(IV) A framework to settle problematic bank loans

After one year of negotiation, a framework to settle non-performing loans (NPLs) on banks’ books was achieved in cooperation with the central bank. This framework applies to both (1) the relation between the banks and its clients and (2) the relation between the banks and the supervisory authorities.

1. In the dealings between banks and clients (debtors), three main pillars govern the relations:

a. Unrealized interest rates are partly written off by applying reduced interest rates on the initial debt stock.

b. The debt stock is reduced by way of acquiring the real estate that served as collateral. Banks acquire these properties at good evaluation agreed upon with the Banking Control Commission. c. The remaining debt balance is rescheduled over a long-term period of five to 10 years, reduced interest rates agreed upon between client and bank.

2) The relation between the bank and supervisory authority is managed through a three-tiered scheme: a. Defining of the accounting methodology in provisions on settled and unsettled problem loans. b. Allowing a long period, up to 20 years, of provisioning of real estate, which banks have acquired from debtors under their loan-rescheduling scheme. c. Granting banks the possibility to rediscount, totally or partially, the securitized debt of the clients with BDL if the bank needs liquid assets to clear its balance sheets. In its entirety, this instrumentation provided for rescheduling of non-performing loans, if well and adequately used by bankers, will support the process of revitalizing the economy and resume new activities through restructuring the corporate sector.

What strategy for the coming years?

Looking towards the future, it is prudent to go beyond analyzing the main developments of 2003, as mentioned above, and review the larger situation of the banking industry and its strategic needs.

For this task, it is helpful to take stock of the numbers as they stand after a decade of strong banking growth. The most telling figure in this context is the ratio between total assets/liabilities held by banks and Lebanon’s GDP. This ratio stands today at 315% by the end of September 2003. It is the highest worldwide among “normal” countries.

How much of these liabilities are invested domestically is key to understanding the Lebanese economy from a banking perspective. Most of these resources are invested locally, therefore, the economy is enduring the cost of these bank’s liabilities. By the end of September 2003, 16% of bank assets were invested abroad, and the remaining 84% in the country (domestic placements). Of these domestic placements, 26% were in the private sector, 54% with the sovereign (23% at the central bank and 31% at the Lebanese treasury) and 4% in fixed and unclassified assets.

In simple terms, the banking sector has outgrown the Lebanese economy and domestic economic growth. It grew eight to 10 times in the last 10 years – while the Lebanese economy did not grow as fast.

Even if interest rates – i.e., the price – decrease further, the quantity of credits and loans to the economy (public and private) will still constitute a heavy weight and therefore a heavy cost on the economy. Capital funds have become very big also compared to domestic needs. Our international capital adequacy ratio exceeds 18% while Basel I Committee has set it at 8%.

Why does the Lebanese banking industry have to turn over a new leaf? The current model of banking growth was sustainable until today because of two factors: 1. The Lebanese community and some Arab funds repatriated part of its wealth to Lebanon, enabling our deposit base to widen without any relation with domestic economic growth. 2. The state, central bank and treasury became our main client (54% of our assets in September 2003) and both of them accepted to extend to a maximum their foreign currency debt. This policy helped a lot by providing fresh blood to this dollarized model in one hand and by providing the banking industry with good placement opportunity in another hand.

This pattern of attracting more funds from abroad can only continue if we keep interest rates at high levels, which are unsustainable by our domestic economy. This is a paradox situation.

When public and private sectors have difficulties to service their debt it is a clear signal that this model is no longer sustainable and should be revisited sooner better than later. This leaves us with the need to export our services abroad as only way to remedy the situation. Two recent signs confirm that the banking industry became too big for the Lebanese economy. The 0% coupon T-Bills to the public sector and the framework to settle the NPLs applying reduced interest rates.

If we want the banking sector to continue to grow and if we want the banking industry to continue to realize profits and good return on equities and assets (ROE, ROA), it has become necessary to diversify our placements to other countries and markets.

That means we have to export our banking services to countries like Syria, Iraq, Armenia, Algeria, Sudan, Libya, and other countries where the banking industry is not developed. We also need to enhance and strengthen our financing services to Lebanese communities abroad, and to look seriously for cross-border mergers and acquisitions with active Arab banking industries.

In summary, international and regional expansion is the only strategy to guarantee sound and further growth of the Lebanese banking industry, entailing three options for development that will not place an undue burden on the national economy of having to carry the weight of the enormous deposits base:

1. Expand into neighboring countries and optimize physical presence there.

2. Supply services in foreign markets, especially to the Lebanese expatriate business community.

3. Penetrate new markets through cross border and regional mergers and acquisitions.

Fortunately, based on the sector’s many strong points, and because over the past ten years we undertook a multi-dimensional restructuring and reorganization of our industry from within the prospects for exporting Lebanese banking services are good.

This reorganization has been characterized by achievements in following areas:

1. We refurbished and improved our human resources. This is a main factor needed to compete regionally and internationally.

2. We introduced very adequate management systems and technologies, including good manuals of policies and procedures.

3. We are complying with international standards in many important areas. Lebanese banks fulfill the current Basle requirements for capital adequacy ratio and the standards set for lending to related parties and lending to a single large borrower. We are also up to global standards in accounting and auditing, and rules on disclosure, transparency and combating money laundering etc. Lebanon has good supervision authorities that operate according to BIS principles of supervision.

4. We acquired during the last 15 years a lot of know-how in dealing with the dollarization of economies and in operating under very aggressive and risky environments.

Lebanon’s banking industry appears to be very well positioned regionally because it fully achieved these improvements and it is very well equipped to more important cross–border activity.

A further avenue for banking sector growth in Lebanon should be mentioned here. This would be to finance industrial activities, which are destined fully for export. To implement this strategy could require collaboration with international organizations to promote our exports. But even more essential for mobilization of Lebanon’s export capacities is a very good vision on behalf of the regulator. This is the role of the government. It should elaborate a new approach, new vision, and new model to induce the growth of our economy.

Fulfilling this role would imply many steps and taking strong measures, examples for which would be interventions with the Arab countries as well as the EU in support of Lebanese exports. It is up to the state as regulatory force in the economy to work towards better conditions for production by providing incentives, decreasing costs and preparing a reliable framework and consistent operating conditions. At the current stage, and in all these matters, one question must be asked: Where is the state? We have a heavy state with limited efficiency and productivity. We urgently need in Lebanon to redefine the role of the state in the economy, to rediscover where is the adequate dosage to be set between the state and the market. This hydride economic model of ultra-liberalism and ultra interventionism in the same time is no more appropriate for our country. We need a much more equilibrated liberal socio-economic model. We need a smaller and more efficient public sector and a state with a real vision for the future. The reason for this culture of NPLs is our non-performing and mediocre state.

The banking community and the banking authority are a necessary part of the problems and solutions of the economy. Whenever we have had a good program we have always been able to deliver our part of it.

Dr. Makram Sader is the secretary general of the Association of Banks in Lebanon

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Capturing Ramadan

by Anissa Rafeh January 1, 2004
written by Anissa Rafeh

It started as the $40,000 pet project of a young entrepreneur in 1995 and ended up a trend that today seems to have been with us forever. The Ramadan tent, originally an Egyptian invention, was stunningly simple in that it offered a venue for people to meet and socialize after breaking the fast. Today, such is their popularity that practically every major hotel has jumped on the bandwagon, raking in as much as $550,000 for the month.

“I came to Lebanon in 1992 after living in Egypt and realized there was nothing to do in the evening for SOHOOR during Ramadan – there was only Barbar,” said Wassim Tabbara, who started the first Ramadan tent eight years ago at the age of 26.

While successfully participating in the organization of an Egyptian week in Lebanon with the Lebanese-Egyptian Association, of which he was a member, Tabbara had the idea of bringing an Egyptian-themed tent to Beirut. Patching together several boy scout tents provided by the Makassid Foundation, and spending about $20,000 on accessories from Egypt – including tablecloths, Egyptian NARGILEHS and an old Egyptian FURN – Tabbara set up shop in a family-owned plot of land by the LAU. With seating for 130 people, the tent was an instant success and packed to capacity every night. The menu offered the traditional SAHOOR fair, including MANAKESH and SAHLAB, and entertainment consisted of NARGILEHS, a TV set and music playing from a cassette deck. There was no cover charge and the average customer spent about $8 to $10. “I had a lot of costs, so I did not make huge profits,” admitted Tabbara, “it was my first experience in the food business.”

It was an experiment, however, that proved successful despite the paltry returns. “Everyone called for reservations, but I did not take any to be fair. So, by 7pm, people would send their drivers to wait in line till we opened at 8pm to reserve tables,” said Tabbara. “When we would tell people they couldn’t come in because we ran out of chairs, they would go home, bring a chair and come back. It was really funny.”

With such popularity, Tabbara had discovered an untapped market, but by the next year, in true Lebanese fashion, others wanted a piece of the action. The Coral Beach and the Escape club both opened tents in 1996. Both provided serious competition to Tabbara’s second tent, which by now had moved to the newly renovated BCD. The second tent saw profits increase fivefold, but by 1997, a sponsorship dispute and government red tape forced Tabbara to abandon his project. By now, Khaymat al Hanna had opened its doors and Tabbara’s previous alliance with Future TV was abruptly severed to solely advertise Bcharra Namour’s venture. After nine days of tough negotiating, Future reinstated its agreement with Tabbara, but as it was nearly two weeks into the month, and much of the financial momentum was already lost. “I was shocked [by Future’s actions],” said Tabbara. “And then the ministry of tourism said they would not give me a permit to open a tent [the next year] because all the hotels complained about the competition. In the end, I just gave up.”

Although Tabbara is no longer in the business for now –

“maybe I’ll come back with a KHAYMI next year” – he certainly paved the way for Ramadan tents today. There is no clearer legacy to his innovation than the splendid tents operated by Lebanon’s finest hotels.

“There is a good market for Ramadan tents, but unfortunately in Beirut, there is no high quality in terms of décor, entertainment and food. That’s why we focus on those parts,” said Simon Saade, food and beverage manager at the InterContinental Phoenicia. “We wanted to have a tent for the people to enjoy the luxury and ambiance of Ramadan.” Part of that luxurious ambiance includes extravagant decorations á la 1001 Nights, which one insider estimated at costing $200,000. Still, with a seating capacity of 640, a relatively full house every night of the month, and the average customer doling out $28 a night on a set menu (not including a NARGILEH), the expense seems worth it. Just across the street, however, is the more rustic Fishawi tent, run by the St. Georges Yacht Motor Club, which does not have a set menu. According to Michel Farhat, the operations manager at the St. Georges, the average client spent about $20 a night at the Egyptian-themed tent, which included a LL10,000 cover charge for the live entertainment.

“The Fishawi tent offered people something simple, an affordable way of capturing the idea of Ramadan,” Farhat explained. “The Phoenicia tent was more upscale.”

Operation costs for running a Ramadan tent vary according to type. At the Phoenicia, for example, about 80% of the tent staff consisted of fulltime employees in the food and beverage department at the hotel, which kept overhead down. “We used our own people to construct everything [in the tent] and we saved money by using our own people. It has proven a successful business experience,” said Saade. For establishments that do not have a hotel’s business to rely on, they are faced with a different situation. For the St. Georges, the Fishawi tent was an effective way of keeping its summertime staff (from it’s beach club) employed during the winter, which would otherwise be a dead season. Farhat estimated overhead costs at $50,000 to $60,000, with $30,000 spent on advertising and live entertainment. At the end of Ramadan, Farhat estimated the revenues of Fishawi at $133,000.

Although hotel and resort ventures have proven successful –Saade admitted that the Phoenicia tent has been packed since it’s opening in 2001 and Farhat said that 2003 profits from Fishawi increased by 10% from 2002 – independents like Tabbara were not so lucky. “I spent $300,000 on my third tent,” said Tabbara, “and I lost 33% of my profits [because of the Future TV deal fallout].” For the first nine days of the holy month, out of the 1,500 seats available, only about 200 to 300 were filled each night – which was catastrophic considering the $80,000 monthly rental fee of the BCD lot. Tabbara also faced backlash from religious clerics, who associated him with tents that featured dancing, although he did not permit such activity at his establishment. “I was very strict about dancing because I knew people would talk about it. But the Mufti sent a representative to talk to me because they [the clergy] did not know any other tent owners.”

Respecting religious customs is very important to most established tents. Almost none serve alcohol or feature racy entertainers like belly dancers. “This is something we can’t joke about; we respect tradition,” said Farhat. It is a notion firmly upheld by the Phoenicia, said Saade. “We respect this month and keep it in high value.”

As for the man who started it all, what is his opinion about the Ramadan tents of today? “I liked the Phoenicia tent; it was very nice,” said Tabbara. “But the problem with tents today is the loud music – you can’t talk to anybody. It would be better if they just lowered the volume.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Finance

Battling debt

by Tony Hchaime January 1, 2004
written by Tony Hchaime

The Lebanese government’s successful efforts to put on hold the almost weekly auction of Lebanese Pound Treasury Bills some nine months ago is a positive development many. Local and international economists attributed the move to the substantial increase in liquidity levels pursuant to the Paris II donor conference held during the fall of 2002. The $4 billion drawn during the Paris II conference, coupled with the $4 billion interest-free loan provided to the government by Lebanese banks, have resulted in a surge in liquidity levels, which allowed the government to stop borrowing locally through T-Bills.

As the year draws to a close, however, the treasury is opening up its auction doors once again, borrowing domestically through the issuance of new T-Bills, with maturities ranging from one year to three years. The motives behind such a move have been debated often among leading bankers and economists, in the light of the performance of the government in 2003, and the new draft budget for 2004.

Initially, the conditions set during the Paris II donor conference included radical fiscal and monetary reforms, proper initiation of the privatization of some state assets, and efforts to securitize the proceeds of others. However it seems that the funds attracted during the conference, as well as the interest-free loan by the banks, have been used to partially reduce interest on some of the public debt, and mostly to cover the steep deficit in the budget.

As such, the money was never intended to solve the problems of the government, but was rather a means to undertake economic reforms and privatization. Such efforts are ultimately used to significantly trim the deficit, spur economic growth and stop the need for additional borrowing – all of which are seemingly beyond any imminent materialization in the case of Lebanon. The money raised in 2002 was used rapidly to cover the budget deficit and has since dried up in less than a year. The direct consequence of such developments is the recently highlighted return to T-Bill auctions.

A major portion of the funds obtained during and pursuant to Paris II was used to replace existing debt obligations with new ones at lower interest rates. This has resulted in the much-lauded reduction in general interest rates in the country. As such, the new T-Bills auctioned by the ministry of finance yield between 6.85% and 8.72%, a significant drop from the 14% or higher yields common prior to Paris II, to levels unseen in over 20 years.

Moreover, it should be taken into consideration that if the government succeeds in maintaining such low interest rates while simultaneously replacing existing high yielding debt with such T-Bills, the overall cost of debt burden would be significantly reduced.

On the other hand, the government’s ability to succeed in such an endeavor should be assessed, given the sizeable deficits in the budget, and the slow pace in the implementation of reforms and privatization plans.

A comparison between borrowings through Treasury bills and the interest rates on such securities shed some light as to the government’s ability to maintain low interest rates (see chart). Historically, lower interest rates have been accompanied by lower levels of borrowing. In essence, there have been rare periods where the levels of T-Bill issues have been sustained with dropping yields.

In economic terms, the yield on any security rises with the risk associated with such a security. In this regard, the government had managed to improve its image and comfort investors following Paris II, with the central bank foreign exchange reserves reaching record highs. Such developments reduced the perception of default risk on the government, devaluation risk on the national currency, and thus justified the lower interest rates on the newly issued T-Bills. Recent developments, however, have begun to raise concerns once again, and political bickering has delayed many critical reform plans. A number of adverse factors are appearing on the horizon and are likely to render investors more risk averse. The regional arena is plagued by the situation in Iraq, increased terrorist activities in Saudi Arabia and Turkey and the slow pace of the peace process. On the domestic front, the scene does not look any better. The year 2004 is expected to witness heated presidential and municipal election campaigns, overshadowed by the Hariri-Lahoud feuds. Furthermore, much uncertainty surrounds the government’s ability to take concrete steps towards economic reforms, privatization, and securitization, and ultimately reduce the debt burden. In essence then, such increasing uncertainties are likely to push interest rates higher in the market, and consequently force the government to offer higher yields on T-Bills if it chooses to pursue this method of borrowing.

On another front, positive signs are beginning to show in the western economies, increasing the likelihood of higher interest rates globally over the next 18 months. Such increases will also have to be reflected in the yields of any securities sold on the Lebanese market, including the government’s Treasury Bills. Some argue that since the central bank will absorb a considerable portion of each issue of T-Bills – as it has done previously – interest rates may be more resilient to upward pressures. Nevertheless, although the central bank has done so occasionally, the bulk remains in the hands of banks and private investors (see chart). This renders interest rates much more sensitive to market pressures.

Banks in Lebanon are known to have profited substantially from T-Bill investments in the past, and are not likely to appreciate the sharply lower returns on similar investments offered currently. Nevertheless, the currently low rates of return on alternative uses of funds may encourage banks to invest in T-Bills. The credit situation in the country has been severely damaged by the economic recession of the past three years, while global interest rates remain at record low levels. In such a sense, the yields of 7% and 8% offered on the new T-Bills do appear attractive. On the other hand, rising global interest rates and improvements in the economic situation in the country could spawn various alternative investment opportunities. A direct correlation exists between the T-Bill yield spread over LIBOR and banks’ portfolios of such securities. As such, it is expected that as global interest rates rise and the spread between Lebanese T-Bill yields and LIBOR narrows, Lebanese banks are likely to trim their T-Bill portfolios in favor of other investments (see chart). Therefore, the government will be forced to raise interest rates to maintain or increase the spread over LIBOR in order to entice banks to keep purchasing T-Bills.

On the income side, recent figures released by banks in Lebanon reveal a marked improvement in the bottom line, despite the lack of T-Bills over the past nine months. Such a development indicates that perhaps banks are no longer as dependent on T-Bill returns as they were in previous years, and that they have successfully sought alternative sources of income.

Pressures on the Lebanese Pound have always been a major topic debated in government circles over the past years and have often put a strain on the central bank’s foreign reserves during its efforts to stabilize the currency.

As the government attempts to lower interest rates across the board through the issuance of T-Bills at markedly lower interest rates, concerns arise as to the impact of such a move on the Lebanese pound. Basic economics stipulate that as interest rates drop in one country relative to others, demand on the domestic currency also drops. In the case of Lebanon, this would theoretically reignite pressures on the Lebanese pound, forcing the central bank to tap into its foreign reserves to offset the pressure.

On the other hand, even the sharply lower interest rates on the Lebanese Pound remain at a significant premium to interest rates on international currencies. As such, the drop in demand on the currency resulting from lower interest rates is likely to be limited in the near term. Conversely though, if global interest rates were to rise, reducing the premium offered on Lebanese pound investments, demand on the currency would begin to drop, and pressures would begin to mount. Nevertheless, such a concern is somewhat distant and of little concern, especially since the central bank has recently accumulated record levels of foreign currency reserves, enough to defend the national currency if need be.

However, while the significantly lower interest rates on the securities would be a welcomed move in terms of reducing the cost of debt burden on the budget, a number of concerns arise based on historical developments and expected future ones.

The ability of the government to maintain the low interest rates is questionable. The use of the funds obtained through such auctions should be closely assessed. Debt levels are continuing to rise, and efforts to trim the budget deficit have yet to meet reasonable success. In such a sense, will the funds obtained through T-Bills be used to facilitate the implementation of economic reforms, privatization and securitization… or will they be used to just cover the deficit and contribute to the growth in our public debt levels?

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Turning a page

by Godfrey Blakeley January 1, 2004
written by Godfrey Blakeley

Saqi Books, an independent publishing company run by two Lebanese, is making waves in international markets and, perhaps even more importantly, helping to counter misunderstandings between the Arab and Western worlds.

The ethos of the company is radical, progressive and international. “We believe in a cultural dialogue between the Arab and Western worlds, never more needed since the events of September 11,” said managing director Andre Gaspard, who, with his partner Mai Ghoussoub, founded the company as a bookshop in 1979 and now runs the company from offices in a cosmopolitan area of West London. Today, the company has an annual turnover of $3 million and publishes 27 English and 39 Arabic titles a year.

“We don’t think in terms of Arab or Western blocs and we don’t see all Arabs as fanatics and all Americans as imperialists – that’s crude and simplistic. We try to provide an outlet for a variety of individual voices.”

Gaspard cites the example of ADAMA, an autobiographical novel by Saudi writer Turki al-Hamad, which is about a young man growing up in Riyadh in the 1960s, and THE CRUSADES THROUGH ARAB EYES, by Amin Maalouf, which went a long way towards setting the crusades, one of the most distorted episodes in history, in a true light. “This is the sort of book we like to publish,” he said. The book still sells over 5,000 copies annually and is a standard text in schools and colleges.

A major coup was the publication in November 2001 of the first study of 9/11 called, TWO HOURS THAT SHOOK THE WORLD, by Fred Halliday, a Middle East specialist at the London School of Economics. The company began with the bookshop. Gaspard, who studied law at the University of St Joseph, and his friend Ghoussoub who studied math at the American University of Beirut, left the civil war in Lebanon in 1976 and moved to Paris. They found temporary jobs – Gaspard in a bank and Ghoussoub as a journalist with an Arab language weekly newspaper. They were both great book lovers and avid readers. One weekend Ghoussoub, on a visit to London, noticed that the city had no Arab language bookshops although there were three in Paris.

“She came back to Paris and suggested we open a bookshop in London and, being young and crazy, I agreed straight away. After we had opened, I met a prominent Arab bookseller who told me he had been thinking of opening a bookshop in London at the same time. He had a feasibility study done which predicted he would lose £80,000 a year and he decided to drop the idea. Thank heavens I never carried out a feasibility study!”

Before opening in 1979, Gaspard and Ghoussoub drew up a catalogue of 1,600 titles. “We printed 1,000 catalogues and ran out of them within a few months. We didn’t plan it but it proved to be the best way to launch a company specializing in mail order and library supply.” They also built up an address list of universities and colleges with Arabic departments in Europe and America. This mailing list, which began with 80 names and now has over 10,000, is the basis of the core business – mail order and worldwide library supply. This now accounts for some 70% of the shop’s annual sales of about $1 million. Mail order is increasingly overtaking “off the street” sales, as fewer Arabs visit London and more bookshops sell books about the Middle East.

He runs a tight ship. The bookshop employs seven people and is managed by Ghoussoub and Gaspard’s wife Salwa. At any given time the shop stocks some 40,000 titles evenly divided between Arabic and English books and specializes in titles with a long shelf life which often become standard academic texts.

“For a bookshop turnover in time is the key to profitability. If your allocated capital for buying books is, for example, $100,000, then the secret to financial success is how many times you can recoup and reinvest that $100,000 during the year. The average is three times, we achieve three and a half times, and the big chain bookshops aim for five times,” said Gaspard.

“Because of this huge push for profitability by the new supermarket bookshops there is a constant demand for new books, and huge numbers are being produced, the traditional bookshop atmosphere is disappearing, and it’s becoming difficult for the independent bookshop to survive.” But Saqi survives and prospers. The bookshop is “the mother” of the other two departments. The English language publishing department opened in London in 1984 and after “bumpy” progress over the years, picked up dramatically. It has increased sales by $200,000 for each of the last two years and now achieves annual sales of $1 million. All three departments now contribute more or less equally to the company’s present overall annual sales.

“I’m sorry to say that the tragedy of September 11 helped our English language publishing business. Sales increased threefold because many of our books were relevant to the crisis. Our Arabic publishing suffered at first but recovered, and the bookshop, which is a steady, ongoing business, was not affected.”

The English department is a lean and fit operation with an in-house staff of four people. Much of the nitty gritty pre-production work in London is handled by a team of some twelve freelance copy editors, proofreaders, indexers and designers. This system of outsourcing is especially effective in the production of a wide variety of specialized books. Pre-printing work accounts for about one-third, and printing and binding for about two-thirds of costs.

A publisher’s key partner is the representative who sells his books to bookshops, and the distributor who stocks his books in a warehouse, delivers orders to bookshops, collects sales revenues and, after deducting fees and expenses, sends the publisher his money.

“If my representative goes bust I don’t lose much, but if my distributor goes bust, we can suffer badly. The distributor is your money source, and if he runs into trouble, the publisher is the first to suffer – especially in England where in a case of bankruptcy other creditors take precedence over publishers,” explained Gaspard. “Over the last 16 years, four of our distributors have gone into receivership. The last time we lost six month’s sales and suffered a severe disruption of business. With nine books going through the printers we had to rent a temporary warehouse for two months until we found a new distributor and it took us two years to recover from the crisis. But each time we were able to recover because we do not borrow money from banks – that is our golden rule. Publishing and distributing books is unpredictable and risky.” When the company opened an office in Hamra Beirut in 1992, it was initially managed from London and everybody told Gaspard it would fail within a year. “We started slowly and cautiously but we picked up better than most of our competitors after the first Gulf war and our growth has been the fastest ever achieved by a Middle Eastern publisher.”

The office now employs a fulltime staff of 10 and a team of eight freelancers, has its own editorial board, and is becoming increasingly independent of London. It publishes over 50 new titles a year as well as reprints, achieves annual sales of about $1 million, and is the leading independent publisher in the region. It may also generate the company’s strongest growth in the future.

“Our list consists of some 300 writers from Morocco to Iran and everywhere in between. We try to find writers from a broader social spectrum, including women exploring new cultural and social issues, and as always we are keen on ‘new voices.’ We always treat writers fairly and this makes a huge difference in the Middle East. They recommend you to other writers and you are on a roll.”

In London, the company acts as a publisher but in Beirut it not only publishes books, it also does its own representation, distribution and wholesaling. Operations cannot be streamlined by giving exclusivity to one distributor as in Europe and America, and although the company has 40 distributors in the Arab world, some of them are unreliable and it does some distribution itself. The company stores its books in its own warehouse, employs two fulltime representatives constantly visiting bookshops throughout the region, and attends all the main book fairs. It has built its own distribution network and delivers directly to bookshops in all the major Arab cities. So where do Saqi Books go from here?

“We’ll do more of the same. We’ve always worked within our means and invested only from profits and never from borrowing. That makes it difficult to dream up master plans or long term goals,” Gaspard said. “We could open bookshop branches but we’re not going to jump into things. We don’t take easily to the idea of expanding with somebody else’s money and on their terms. We started small, we’ve grown gradually, and we like it that way.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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