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Small and nimble players are consistently finding innovative ways to strike big against the Goliaths. This is true whether in today
Less popular cruises?
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While 60 cruise ships dock at Beirut each summer only one, the Ausonia, takes on new passengers, and for three years now, Lebanese holidaymakers have signed up for the weeklong Greek island cruise, organized by the Cypriot company, Louis Cruise Lines. That was until this year, when prices went up by about 5%, noted Toufic Keyrouz, general manager of the travel agency Lebanese International Tours, who feels that the budget cruise may have had its day.
Paul Zahlan, a director of Lebanon
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Lebanese experts on urban planning and zoning contend that this communal discipline of real estate management exists as nothing more than a quasi-reality here. Sights from nearly every nook and cranny of the country corroborate the judgment. From north to south, communities overflow with building structures that defy common sense, communal planning and esthetics.
The Automobile Importers Association teams up all local car agents who hold distributor contracts with international auto manufacturers. Avidly working to represent the interests of these primary agents, the AIA emphasizes a unified presentation of official importer concerns to the media and Lebanese public. EXECUTIVE talked to the president of the AIA, Samir Homzi.
E: What are the association’s main concerns?
SH: Our aim is to make new cars available to all people of all budgets. New car dealers are today making vehicles available in a price range that starts at around $5,000 to $6,000. These are economical, trouble-free new cars that consume very little unleaded gasoline. They are sold with manufacturer warranties and with payment arrangements over five years that make for monthly payments of $100 or $125 to families with a lower income.
E: How long does it take before new models are available in the local market?
SH: Sometimes new cars are launched in Lebanon prior to Geneva, Frankfurt, and Paris and in some instances, new cars have been launched in Lebanon for the Middle East and for the whole world. In many instances, new models are launched in Europe prior to being introduced to the Middle East. This is for technical reasons, whereby the manufacturer would like to optimize the vehicle for this area.
E: Turning to recent developments of automotive sales, is it correct that the association has observed a decrease of new car sales by 50% or more when comparing annual sales in 2002 with those in 1997 or 1998?
SH: The figures definitely went down. They went down first of all because of all the taxation. Vehicles are overtaxed in Lebanon. We are paying high customs duties in Lebanon, on top of which we are paying VAT, on top of which we are paying registration fees.A country like Lebanon deserves to have much lighter taxes.
E: Does the AIA have a figure for how many cars are operating in Lebanon today?
SH: To be really honest, the only way to get to this number would be to go to the traffic department and look at their data. They are getting better and better under the minister of the interior and have made great improvements. We prefer to keep track of only our own auto figures, which means each dealer provides his figures to the association and at the end of the day we calculate these figures as those of new car sales in Lebanon.
E: A study in the late 1990s placed the average age of cars circulating on Lebanese roads at about 14 years. Do you have any update or opinion on the current age of the country’s fleet of cars?
SH: I don’t think my figures would be far from that. But I won’t venture to give out figures because we don’t have the mechanism to determine what is the average age of the cars here. However, when you drive around, you can see that the age is quite high.
E: Can you comment on the mechanique fee schedule that does not advantage new or environmentally sound cars but is cheaper for the oldest cars?
SH: We worked on that issue but unfortunately we did not get what we wanted. We believe that the mechanique should stimulate people to renew the car stock in Lebanon. We are seeing every day cars on the road that nobody would accept in other countries. We would like to see these cars slowly replaced by new cars, and we are working seriously to have the government first of all cancel the registration fees and lower customs duties. Once the mechanique becomes a technical inspection in January 2004, we would like to see these cars pulled out of circulation because not only their appearance is less than exciting but also because they are a danger for people using the roads of Lebanon.
E: Without the high taxation levels, and under a favorable environment for financing of car purchases, how many new cars could the Lebanese market absorb annually?
SH: The total market today is about 12,000 units per year, distributed over 35 dealers. By contrast, in some neighboring countries, one dealer sells about 10,000 cars each year. We are not calling for elimination of customs but ask for their reduction and complete cancellation of registration fees, in order to encourage people to replace their old vehicles with new ones.
E: In a macro-economic context, how important is the contribution of automotive sector to fiscal income?
SH: Customs duties on vehicles and petrol tax and so forth make a very big contribution to the government income. But we believe that if registration fees are cancelled completely and customs duties are reduced, we will sell more vehicles. The government will benefit more from the taxes we just mentioned, and we would have cleaner air from cars that produce less pollution. We would have safer cars on the road, and more pleasant cars to look at for this country and its image as a tourism destination. On all fronts, we would be better off if we decrease the taxes.
E: How much does the automotive sector contribute to Lebanon’s GDP?
SH: Today we don’t have such a figure and I don’t want to jump and give a figure off the top of my head. We do contribute to the economy in various ways, to the banks and the insurance companies for example, where car loans and the motor insurance are important businesses.
E: How can the cost burden of car ownership be distributed more equally and fairly?
SH: If we dealers would take our profit margin up from 4% or 5% and put it at 25%, we would be selling a quarter of what we are selling today. That is not the case at all. As I said, competition is very high among the dealers and profit margins are very tight. But I am saying that with its tax burden, the government is trying to milk this cow to its limits. Asking too much from the cow and taking all eggs from the chicken is killing the chicken and killing the cow.
E: Would a change in taxation of cars not put the government under additional financial pressure?
SH: Sales of new cars should increase for three reasons: economic, safety and fiscal. The whole set of taxes today is too high. If it is lower, the fiscal power of Lebanon will be the first to enjoy a better situation. One point is that our invoices come from the biggest car manufacturers and there is no chance of them being tampered with. Importation of used vehicles happens not through a manufacturer but through a dealer or a roadside trader, who can deliver an invoice that does not reflect the value of the vehicle. If we can stop the importation of used cars, or at least limit it to vehicles of two years of age, plus have a flexible taxation, the government will be the first to benefit and the country will definitely be winning.
E: Do you have any information on the number of used car dealers in Lebanon?
SH: We have no relationship with used car importers. We have relationship with used car dealers with whom we exchange the vehicles that we receive from our customers. They take these cars from us and recondition them. These were cars that have run in Lebanon and were used in Lebanon. But we have no relation with importers of used cars. I have personally no contact with importers of used cars.
E: It seems that you view the activity of used car imports not very favorably.
SH: I said from the beginning that I wish to see the importation of used cars stop, or if that is not feasible, to limit it to the acceptance of vehicles two years of age. I believe that trashy cars, which were refused in Europe and should have gone to the junkyard, ended up here.
E: Apart from lower taxes, do you see ways in which people could reduce their cost of car ownership?
SH: Wherever you look here, you see that most cars only have one driver. When I was in the United States, I experienced car-pooling. In a company, three or four people who share the same office hours agree to travel together to and from the office, and each car owner has to use his car only four one week a month. In this country, we have invented the service taxi. It is a Lebanese philosophy. Why don’t car owners do more ride-sharing in Lebanon?
E: When you say you are looking for the best, what defines ‘the best’?
RM: A quality that I especially like to see it is the passion to make an impact on the world that goes beyond making individual gains. It begins with developing the professional side and the personal side and then reaching out to the community, in terms of giving back to society.
E: How do you spot these special qualities in applicants?
RM: They have that drive, that energy, that special electricity. When you see it, you know it.
E: Was it in any way a political or economic decision for the school to intensify your presence here?
RM: Not necessarily. We started in the Middle East about five years ago. Then all the disruptions occurred and we just pulled back. I feel the disruptions in the region will continue for quite some time, but I decided that it is time to come back, regardless, and be part of an answer to some of the problems instead of leaving things stay as they are.
E: Wharton does not have a shortage of student applications. What is the average academic level for students who gain admission?
RM: We use the GMAT score, and the average score is 714. But I think the range is much more important. It is from 640 to 780. You don’t have to have the highest score. It is everything else that really makes the candidate stand out.
E: Can people easily recoup their investment if they attend Wharton, which is an expensive program?
RM: The MBA is a long-term investment. In light of that, Wharton has created a number of programs for financing your MBA that help student to gain access immediately, through loans given to students based on their needs. We hope that students come with a contribution of some small percentage, 10% or 20 %. But if a student can’t do that, it really is the responsibility of the school to provide grants. Students might face short-term pain in terms of servicing loans. But longer term, they will be fine. The gains to society, themselves, and their company will greatly outweigh the short-term pain of those first initial years of loan repayment.
E: But in order to be able to pay back those loans, they almost automatically will have to take a job with an American or multinational corporation?
RM: There is an advantage in working in a different nation for a year or two in order to broaden the experience of the MBA. If a Lebanese student would opt for working in London or Paris to gain diverse experience in the first years, and then come back, usually the salaries and bonuses from those first years do a lot towards paying back the loan.
E: Do you have the impression that anti-American bias has grown in the target group that you approach?
RM: There is no anti-American sentiment when it comes to education.
E: How about visa?
RM: This last year, I had no problems getting visa for my students from the Middle East. They went through an additional screening process but they had no problems because they did things correctly.
E: It is then safe to assume that people coming to Wharton from the Arab world will not experience an anti-Arab bias stateside?
RM: Not at Wharton. After 9-11 and the whole student body was very protective of our Arab students.
E: How many Arab students does Wharton have at present?
RM: Probably 1 to 1.5 %; that is something I’d like to increase.
E: How high is the percentage of non-acceptance of applications?
RM: If we have about 7,000 to 8,000 applications and a class of 800, there is a lot of it. We use a structure where we view the application first and then evaluate these twice, dividing them into two groups, one of about 40 % whom we want to interview and another group whom we don’t want to interview and will deny at that point. We then weed the first group down. It works out fairly well.
E: But you would advocate Wharton as offering a better opportunity than a local school?
RM: Students, who really have aspirations to create value and provide leadership, need to get abroad. The MBA is much more than a functional skill at learning. It is an experience of other cultures, worlds. It is the intensity of the experience. But some people just want to be functional experts that don’t want to leave. There are those who want to make money and therefore are interested in taking the credentials. To them I would say, stay, don’t take that risk; don’t spend the money. It really depends on the needs.
Khalil Daoud, the new chairman and managing director of LibanPost, has set aside a small patch of land outside the company’s headquarters, next to Beirut Airport. “It’s for the employees, so they can grow cucumbers and tomatoes.” he explained. “But they don’t care.” The failed horticultural experiment illustrates how difficult it is to spawn a sense of esprit de corps among LibanPost’s 600 employees, as well as the notion that they have a stake in its success or failure. Only a year and a half ago, after the original LibanPost had folded, many thought they were going to be laid off.
In a bid to bolster consumer confidence, Daoud has started giving the country’s post offices a “rejuvenated look,” by redecorating the offices. LibanPost is now allocating $300,000 to $350,000 a year – about 2% of its roughly $16 million annual budget – to this endeavor, and has spent $300,000 on a new post office off Riad al-Solh Square, in the Beirut Central District.
In addition, the company pays Canada Post $500,000 a year for consultancy services, which include training, and has spent over $1 million this year upgrading its technical capacities. Since he took over LibanPost in February 2002, Daoud has been implementing his vision of an overhauled Lebanese postal system. No easy task, since the country’s postal service was obliterated by the civil war and it was only thanks to local and international courier companies that any post flowed at all during that time.
Daoud said he has had to coax a people grown unaccustomed to using postal services back into the fold. “The core objective was to revamp the mail culture, which was non-existent over here. You had a whole generation without any idea about what a postal administration can offer.”
To this end, LibanPost is attempting to establish itself as a conduit for government services such as passport/residency permit renewals and military service exemptions/postponements. The effort, argued Daoud, bolsters President Emile Lahoud’s anti-corruption drive because it cuts out face-to-face transactions between citizens and government employees, thus reducing the potential for “under-the-table” deals. LibanPost exacts no fees for the renewal services, which it began offering about two years ago. So far, Daoud said, between 75,000 and 80,000 people have renewed their documents through LibanPost. The decision to offer assistance with military service formalities was born, Daoud noted, of his frustration with the time wasted sorting out an exemption for his university-bound son at one of the country’s five military service centers in the Bekaa region. “We had to wake up very early in the morning and when we arrived, there were some 2,000 to 3,000 students in line. We had to wait for several hours.” Initiated at the beginning of the year, the service costs LL6,000, or $4. Every week, the number of related transactions grows by 20% to 25%. LibanPost has processed a total of about 3,000 military service-related requests. In 2004, the company expects an increase to about 25,000 to 30,000 requests.
LibanPost is trying, as well, to foster a retail environment in its post offices by offering stationary products such as greeting cards, postcards, envelopes, packages, newspapers, magazines, Lebanon-themed screensavers, floppy diskettes, books about stamps, prepaid internet cards, credit cards and fuel coupons, bus tickets etc. Post offices also offer fax and photocopy services. “We’re gradually expanding the retail services so that it becomes a one-stop shop for people who are in any case visiting the post office,” said Daoud. On a less enthusiastic note, Daoud bemoaned the paucity of banking-related transactions registered by LibanPost. “So far, we haven’t been very successful with the financial institutions. The bulk of mail from banks consists basically of statements of accounts. Most banks today are not distributing statements of accounts, although [bank clients] pay a quarterly fee for them.”
Before the civil war in 1975, Lebanon’s postal services were under the direct control of the ministry of telecommunications. LibanPost, formed in 1998, is a private company under contract to the Lebanese government to operate the country’s postal services. The ministry of telecommunications and the general-directorate of the post regulate the service, but Daoud said the two institutions do not meddle in LibanPost’s affairs or impose strategy. Revenues are shared, but Daoud said that under the terms of the 15-year agreement he could not disclose the breakdown. Daoud refused to reveal the company’s revenues, but acknowledged that the company is still losing money, and probably will continue to do so until the end of 2003. “Next year, however, we hope to start generating profits. I am 100% convinced that there are ways of making a profit without simply waiting for the government to give us business. In all postal organizations around the world, the government is a major contributor to the well-being of the postal administration – this is not the case in Lebanon,” said Daoud.
LibanPost’s shareholders changed in 2001, and an amendment to the original contract spawned the agreement under which LibanPost in its current form operates. Daoud claimed he was not sure why the previous LibanPost agreement disintegrated, but likened its failure to a “wedding that breaks up – the chemistry didn’t work.” In the belly of the company’s headquarters, video cameras and supervisors monitor employees as they handle the roughly 14 million annual transactions. Mistakes are not tolerated. “We are ruthless with errors,” acknowledged Daoud, from behind the broad desk of his white, spartanly furnished office. “Our clients are like people who go to the same restaurant every day. If one day they find a hair on their plate, that’s it, finished. If we hear of any moral irregularities proved to have been committed by one of our employees, then they are fired on the same day,” said Daoud, explaining that he LibanPost operates a “clean floor” policy. Shortcomings are exposed and discussed during daily, early-morning “debriefing” sessions. “Over the last 18 to 20 months, the quality of the service has been continuously improving,” asserted Daoud.
Nonetheless, in the mail sorting room, boxes full of undelivered letters abound, the envelopes marked in some instances with unintelligible scrawl, or an unidentifiable address – after all, Lebanon has no post code system. Thus, delivering letters in the oft labyrinthine streets of Beirut and its southern suburbs, can be a frustrating, sometimes impossible, task – especially if the envelopes sport addresses such as: “Current resident, 14, Blue Cliff Drive, Lebanon,” or “Ms. ‘X’, Lebanon.” Not surprisingly, the ‘Return to Sender’ stamp is in constant use. According to Daoud, Lebanon’s chaotic or non-existent address system is one of LibanPost’s biggest challenges. “Most of the addresses are either wrong or approximate, like ‘opposite that place,’ ‘next to the mosque,’ or ‘over the petrol station.,’” he lamented. In an effort to push for a postal code, LibanPost has already spent $2 million, but the investment has yet to bear fruit because municipalities will not allow plaques bearing postal codes to be affixed to buildings. “We have sent several reminders on the subject, and nothing has been done,” noted Daoud. An alternative, he said, would be to ensure that every street in Lebanon has a name and every building a number. But because the “ownership” of this initiative lies with the municipalities – of which there are 752 – the process is potentially lengthy. The stack of official approvals that must accompany each act of renaming merely serves to complicate the process. LibanPost’s obstacles, however, do not all arise from bureaucratic red tape. Daoud acknowledged that occasionally mail does go astray, but asserted that only in rare instances is it the fault of LibanPost. Inhospitable janitors or doormen sometimes refuse postmen access to a building, saying they will deliver the letters but do not. “The absence of letterboxes can also contribute to the loss of mail. When letters are left lying in front of doors, perched on walls, or propped up against electricity meters, they are easy prey for dishonest neighbors.”
At the press conference in which he outlined the 2004 budget, minister of finance, Fouad Siniora, began by justifying why the 2003 budget was missed by such a sizeable margin. According to figures for the first nine months of 2003, the deficit stood at around 38%, compared to almost 40% for the same period last year, thus registering a modest improvement. While revenues seem to be on target for the year, and may reach the budgeted LL6.475 billion by year-end, expenditures remain high. Current expenditures (excluding debt servicing) grew almost 8% between January and September 2003, compared to the same period last year, reaching LL3.4 billion against a full year budget of LL4.2 billion. On the other hand, debt servicing, which was expected to be capped at LL4 billion for the year, has already exceeded LL3.4 billion by September, and remains the main factor behind the government’s failure to trim the deficit further. In an effort to justify this performance, Siniora stressed that failure to implement structural reforms in the public sector was to blame for the government’s inability to trim current expenditures and meet its targets, while debt servicing targets set for 2003 were primarily dependent on the proceeds from privatization of state assets, a move yet to be implemented.
In doing so, Siniora absolved his ministry from failing to meet the budget for 2003, placing the blame primarily on the political bickering that has hampered the implementation of structural reforms and the progress of privatization. That done, Siniora moved on to sketch the main highlights of the government’s draft budget for the coming year, repeating the importance of structural reforms in the public sector, and their critical role in achieving any target set for 2004.
He said that the new budget would take into consideration the current and expected burdens on the ministry and the treasury. No new taxes would be levied, nor would there be any modifications to existing taxes, including the famed Value Added Tax, expected to remain at 10%.
On the revenue side, total proceeds were expected to remain stable at around LL6.4 billion, yielding an initial surplus in the budget of LL1.45 billion – until debt servicing comes into play.
Setting the debt-servicing burden aside, total expenditure by the government is expected to stretch by almost 8% to reach LL4.95 billion. Around 69%, or LL3.4 billion of such expenditures are allocated to salaries and wages for the workers of the public sector. With the national debt holding steady at current levels, total interest on the debt for the year 2004 is expected to reach at least LL4.3 billion, constituting 46% of total expenses, 67% of total revenues, and yielding a net deficit for the budget of LL2.85 billion, or 30.8% of spending.
As such, wages and salaries, in addition to debt servicing costs, amount to a staggering LL7.7 billion, or 84% of total expenditures. The remaining 16% of expenditures, or LL 1.9 billion, are allocated among various ministries as normal operating expenses for government entities. While such “discretionary” costs may be trimmed, it would conceivably be difficult to significantly improve efficiencies on that front with no radical structural reforms.
On the other hand, if privatization plans do materialize early in 2004, and if proceeds from such efforts are up to expectations, total debt servicing for the year may drop to LL3.9 billion. Such a drastic improvement would reduce the deficit to LL2.45 billion, or 27.7% of spending. The ability of the government to meet even the high end of the deficit for 2004 remains to be assessed, however, as it still marks a significant improvement over the numbers seen in the second half of 2003, where the deficit reached 38% of spending. In fact, as it has been clearly outlined by Siniora, prospects for additional cost-cutting outside debt servicing are bleak, while revenues are expected to remain flat. On the revenue side, options appear to be very limited, or so the government would want us to believe. Income taxes are already being levied on companies and individuals alike. Consumer taxes are being levied through a 10% Value Added Tax system being applied to almost every type of good or service. Custom duties are still applied to almost all import, including unfortunately raw materials and semi-finished goods for industrial use. From this perspective, it does seem that there is virtually no room for improvements. Any additional or higher taxes and the already high cost of living in Lebanon would squeeze consumption, investments, and subsequently economic growth.
Nevertheless, the case may not be as hopeless on that front as the government is painting it out to be. The government should be able to significantly improve its income not from increasing taxes and duties, but by simply improving tax collection. While no official records are kept on who pays what taxes, or at least no records are disclosed, the possibility of digging in that direction should be seriously considered because the current situation leaves no room for slacking off, especially with the World Bank and IMF breathing down the government’s neck. Improvements can be achieved through better tax collection on currently levied taxes, in addition to levying taxes on some job sectors to this day indemnified from paying taxes (medicine, law, etc…).
On the expenditure side, and apart from debt servicing, it was made clear by the government that the overwhelming majority of expenses (or 86%) is non-discretionary and cannot be significantly reduced. Furthermore, almost two thirds of all expenses are allocated to wages and salaries of public sector “servants”. The majority of members in the government and the parliament seem to believe that no cuts can be implemented on that front. Basic finance stipulates that reducing the debt servicing cost can be achieved by either trimming the amount of debt on the books, or negotiating lower interest rates on the existing loans. It appears that perhaps the easier solution is negotiating lower rates on existing loans, or replacing existing obligations with more suitable ones. However efforts in that direction are limited, with the benefits of Paris II beginning to dissipate as the country still fails to meet the requirement set during the summit last year. The government has failed to prove to potential lender/donor countries it ability to implement needed reforms and complete privatization.
As the current situation stands, on the other hand, reducing the overall debt level without privatization seems practically impossible. Severe drainage at the power company, a sizeable budget deficit, and increasing spending on social welfare are likely to force the government to continue borrowing over the near term. As such, the total public debt level is expected to breach the $33 billion level in the foreseeable future.
Therefore, we again realize that the fate of the country hinges on a matter debated so many times over the past five years: privatization of state assets. Three matters should be addressed with that regard:
– The importance of privatization and its impact on government finances
– The urgency of completing privatization plans
– The likelihood that privatization takes place in 2004.
The critical importance of privatization of state assets and its proceeds has been underlined so many times by various parties, including the World Bank, the IMF, international banks such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, and rating agencies such as Standards and Poor’s and Moody’s. The country’s economy is severely burdened by the level of debt, high debt servicing costs and the resulting deficits forcing the government to borrow more. Such factors have prompted a number of rating agencies to downgrade Lebanon’s sovereign rating yet again, stating the pace of reforms and privatization as the main factors behind such a move. Furthermore, the presidential elections to be held towards the end of 2004 are likely to stall any major moves on the part of the government.
Standard and Poor’s proceeded to revise Lebanon’s outlook from Positive to Stable due to fiscal consolidation delays. “The outlook revision reflects our view that the draft budget for 2004 implies a postponement in fiscal consolidation and hence delays the envisaged reduction in the government’s debt burden,” said S&P’s credit analyst Ala’a Al-Yousuf.
The only conceivable solution to reduce the level of debt is through the privatization of some state assets. The two profitable cellular operations should CONCEPTUALLY be easily sold. The power company, on the other hand, is a losing business, with accumulating debts and losses. Nevertheless, serious efforts should be undertaken to sell-off EDL, which by itself is burdening the treasury and forcing on more debts. Proceeds from privatization can range from $2 to $4 billion, and can substantially reduce the overall debt servicing cost by more than 10% in 2004 alone.
Moreover, the benefits of privatization are not limited to the use of proceeds to reduce debts, but such a move would considerably boost the government’s image on the international scene, prompting cheaper lending, more donations, and improve the overall foreign investment climate in the country.
However, as the political bickering has delayed privatization for almost 4 years, the value of the assets, to the contrary of the level of national debt, are certainly not rising. The longer the privatization is delayed, the less the proceeds of such a move will be, and the more damage the government’s already frail credibility will suffer.
The year 2004 is the presidential election year. President Emile Lahoud is eager to improve his public image, while Prime Minister Rafik Hariri is equally keen on meeting his economic targets. It remains to be seen, however, if their plans to improve their public image include a certain compromise on such critical issues as privatization, and how soon, if ever, such precarious steps are to be taken.
The stock market’s upward move this year has humbled many analysts and perplexed even the most optimistic financial experts. Take the all-tech/all-emotions Nasdaq as an example: it’s up a mind-boggling 73% from its October 2002 lows, a tempting sign to many that it’s safe to invest again. But are Wall Street’s happy days here to stay, or is the stock market’s upswing operating on borrowed time?
It is crucial when looking at the market to keep an eye on the big picture, which in this case is that stocks cracked in 2000 and have embarked on a massive bear market. Any moves up within this bear market have to be analyzed in the context of the larger force in action: the bear. In fact, for the SP500 index, the bear market is in the earlier stages of its decline. The Nasdaq, although on the rise – some Nasdaq dream makers are up two, three, even five-fold – it is still down 60% from its March 2002 numbers. This latest rally has brought little real solace for the buy and hold crowd, as they are still down. The short-term punters that have played the move up, however, have cleaned up nicely. But in the meantime, the individual investor must ask the following question: “Is it for real and do I keep my money in?” The answer to both is a resounding “no”.
The move up, from a technical perspective is not so irrational – there have been three other moves up since the crash started, and all had been mistaken for a real revival. This latest surge came with a whole media blitz on how “the US economy is recovering” and in three months, the word “recovery” replaced the word “recession”. The current mainstream view is that the recovery in the US will lead to ever-higher asset prices, but there are two important cautionary factors that should be considered. The first is that the sentiment is extremely positive. This may seem counter-intuitive, but with market participants feeling so buoyant, there is ample room for disappointment. Ever forgetful of the past, the public and the media are being lured into a false sense of security. The market never bottomed at multiples beyond seven or eight and we are currently at 28 times earnings on the SP500. The second factor is that with consumption being the catalyst of any recovery, it is hard to imagine it staying robust without improvements in job creation. Job growth, especially weak in Europe, has faded significantly in the US, with the unemployment rate increasing from 4% at the height of the mania, to near 6%. Chances are, unemployment will continue to rise given the massive overcapacity in most sectors.
The technical factors abound, but the most relevant for the individual investor, is that the bear market is not over. People should be looking at their portfolios and cutting stock exposure to a bare minimum, and while the media and large financial institutions will have you believe that “cash is trash”, this advice will likely turn out ruinous. The notion that people must invest in the stock market is outdated. From 1982 to 2001, the markets were hugging a near perfect up trend (see chart). Since then, it has gone back and forth, sometimes with inebriating speeds, but the market remains below the trend line broken three years ago. What does that entail? It simply reinforces, visually, that despite the recent large move up in stocks, and the hope driven discourse about elections, recoveries, and the “new world”, the markets are still in dangerous territory. Even the sexiest alternative investment will not dodge the coming deflation in prices across the global markets, especially in US stocks and corporate bonds. It is much simpler to adopt the optimistic scenario, as it flows strongly in the ambient media. But one must be more cautious than ever before of the dream of long-term prosperity in stocks. Having been devastated by hope on multiple occasions in the past, it is an elixir that should be passed up. Stay in cash, invest where you live, and preserve hard-earned money. Cash, far from being trash, is the ammunition for investing when no one, including CNBC, will be positive on stocks. For now, stay liquid for the stormy winter.
“No serious newspaper will survive in Iraq today unless the security situation improves. Advertisers aren’t interested. Locals can’t afford to spend much on a newspaper. As a newspaper owner, you’re in trouble,” said Mark Gordon-James, 25, the former finance director of the BAGHDAD BULLETIN, the English language newspaper that has gone belly-up. Established by a team of mainly young, adventurous British expatriates straight after the war, the paper showed early promise. Little did the team predict the persistent operational hazards – power outages to street crime – that would thwart growth from the beginning. All eventually kept advertisers at bay.
“Our mistake was to assume that Iraq would be better off three to five months after the war,” said Gordon-James who estimated losses at $20,000 and who argued that if there had been a genuine effort by the coalition to inject money into Iraq and get reconstruction underway, Iraq would have seen a massive influx of foreign investment.
“Instead, just nothing has happened,” he said bleakly back in London after spending over four months in Iraq. “The place has simply stagnated and started to decompose with the social rot that sets in when you take basic services away from a people – in other words, the collapse of the state.” Ralph Hassall, 24, a young British entrepreneur and graduate from Oxford University, recruited Gordon-James to handle the business side of the paper in May. “Within a week of hearing the idea and meeting Ralph, I was on a plane to Amman,” said Gordon-James, who at 25 was the Bulletin’s oldest staff member. “I thought it an entirely appropriate and essential project for Iraq … plus I found the idea of being an entrepreneur pretty attractive. Didn’t Richard Branson start like this?”
For his part, Hassall was inspired by his mother to start the paper whilst on a trip to the UK from Beirut, where he had been studying Arabic at the American University of Beirut (AUB).
“I spoke to my Mum and she said: ‘You know what they’re going to need in Iraq after the war? They’re going to need an English language newspaper,’” he said. Searching for investors, Hassall solicited start-up funds of $14,000 from what he described as “a wealthy banking friend.”
“A rich friend from Oxford gave me the start up cash. It’s a high risk venture that he did more as a favor for me,” said Hassall, who has an MA in chemistry from Oxford.
With funds in the bag, Hassall and Gordon-James braved the dangerous desert highway from Amman to Baghdad and published the first edition of the paper on June 9. Half of the initial $14,000 was spent on flights, a car, equipment and setting up the office in Baghdad. “Later, when things were looking positive, we got $10,000 more in seed capital from the same investor,” said Gordon-James, who added that the paper also received various donations of around $1,500 per month.
While inefficient printers and the difficulty of importing paper set the printing costs in Baghdad at $2,000 to $2,500 for a print run of 10,000, operational costs in Baghdad were generally cheap, said Gordon-James. “We were the cheapest newsmagazine in the world,” he said, estimating the entire costs of running the paper at $8,000 a month. “That is ridiculous for what it was.” At the height of operations, the paper employed 20 people, paying local staff members $50 per week – a huge salary for Iraqis who were used to being paid a pittance under sanctions-ravaged Iraq.
Nonetheless, without proper funding, the BAGHDAD BULLETIN was destined for failure. While the paper had ad agencies in Saudi Arabia (Saatchi & Saatchi) UAE and Jordan (Promoseven) and Kuwait (Impact/BBDO) lined up to sell advertising, only one ad was ever sold, despite the paper’s rate of 70 cents/cm2.
“We depended on growing ad sales relatively speedily in order to cover our operational costs, but they didn’t materialize because there was and is no vibrant business in Iraq,” said Gordon-James flatly. “No international companies are really interested in advertising in a pure Iraq-circulated paper while the country remains so volatile; they have to see a return for their investment, which is impossible from a country in crisis.”
Gordon-James said that if the paper had backing beyond its shoe-string budget, it could have grown through an international circulation in Jordan, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, building sustainable ad sales revenues on the back of this. “But as it was, we couldn’t afford to even send our director to Kuwait just to sign the distribution agreement,” he said. By the seventh issue, just when regional interest in the magazine was apparently taking off, the money ran out.
After flying close to bankruptcy for many weeks, the paper’s staff members were forced to evacuate Baghdad in mid-September. “We still exist as a company by the way and we could re-start tomorrow if we found financial support,” said Gordon-James, who would gladly travel back to Baghdad if decent funding were secured. “In the meantime we plan to run the BAGHDAD BULLETIN website as an information forum.”
Aside from enduring financial difficulties, the chaotic situation on the ground made it extremely difficult to get the paper off to print. Without a generator, the staff’s working hours were dictated by power outages that saw electricity flow between 2am and 4am. Security was also a serious concern. In July, Richard Wild, a young British journalist who had come to work in part for the BAGHDAD BULLETIN, was shot dead hailing a taxi on a Baghdad street at point blank range. “We were supposed to meet with him the evening he was killed,” said American David Enders, the paper’s 22-year-old former editor. “The staff, which was mostly young Brits, freaked out for the most part – as it seemed to drive home how dangerous the situation was in Iraq.”
At that point, Enders hired an armed security guard. “We didn’t have a gun in the house until that point, and we agreed to getting a guard after some [staff members] started saying they wanted their own weapons,” he said. “From then on, we always kept an AK-47 on the sofa by the front door.”
Back now in his relatively serene home city of Grand Rapids, Michigan, an exhausted Enders has time to reflect on his surreal experience in Baghdad. “At one point it almost felt like we were playing some sort of bizarre prank, printing a newsmagazine in a war zone,” said Enders, who was invited to edit the paper by Hassall after they met while he was a visiting student at AUB. He recalls a fitful night before the first edition went to print where the staff had a “solid freak-out” about how the paper would be received by Iraqis.
“We had a very eclectic group of guest contributors, from Daniel Pipes to a human shield, and we weren’t sure how they would be taken by the population at large. I was especially concerned about being viewed as cultural imperialists, and also didn’t know what would be totally taboo,” he said.
The paper originally relied on overseas contributors for content, yet later employed local and foreign journalists. The foreign journalists, mainly young British university graduates were not paid, rather offered board and a chance to further their journalism careers. “They got a lot out of it, because it’s experience that counts for foreign journalists. They have to make a name for themselves, and we gave them the perfect excuse and safety net to come to a flash point and cover it,” said Gordon-James. Two of the Bulletin’s former journalists are now working in Mosul and Basra, respectively, as stringers for Reuters, another in Baghdad for the BBC and the Associated Press.
While Enders and Gordon-James convey a sense of exhaustion about their time in Baghdad, they impart a sense of thrill about their extreme, almost action-movie like experience.
“We were caught in a number of close-quarter fire-fights, were on the scene of the UN bombing before the Americans, went to all-night raves with gun-firing party goers and hired Uday’s chief engineer and drinking partner as a distribution man,” said Gordon-James. “I almost crashed my car trying to swerve a dead body in the street … the bottle store next door to our house was shot-up in a drive-by shooting; a carjacker was nailed on our street by the neighbors; we were given one of Moktada Sadr’s only ever foreign interview, and we were called by an MP in London saying she’d just given Tony Blair an issue.”
While Gordon-James said he would have never risked the venture had he known the outlook for post-war Iraq, or the improbability of financial success given the start-up funding, he still views the founding of the paper as an achievement.
“Without hindsight, what we did within a month of the end of official hostilities was create an informative, balanced, insightful, publication driven by pure ideology and it was totally unexpected to everyone, especially Iraqis.”