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Business

Q&A Said Elfakhani

by Executive Contributor March 1, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

Will those in the new Executive MBA program at AUB benefit from their investment? Who are we talking about?

We are talking about executives who hold managerial positions, have people who report to them and have budgets to run, often from tens of millions of dollar to over $100 million. Most executives in the Arab world do not necessarily have business degrees. They are technically qualified in their industries, but does the best engineer have skills in managing human resources? We are the first to know in this country that we have a huge deficiency in Lebanon in the area of human resources management. Most of the HR departments are run by people who are trained to deal with payroll issues, sick leaves, this kind of thing –rather than to manage the human capital resources in the company.

The corporate Middle East is a very peculiar business environment. How will you capture the region’s special characteristics and challenges in the program?

Most Arab companies whether in Lebanon or other countries, are family-based. This is factored into our courses through the cases that we are going to discuss. On one hand we are going to describe current practices, seeking to understand them. Then we aim to show the pros and cons of current business practices and current forms of organizations in the Arab world and try to identify the weaknesses and improve on them.

How fast do you foresee the results of the EMBA program percolating into the regional business culture?

I think of universities as kitchens for new ideas that will not necessarily be applied at the moment but hopefully in the future. Even in the West, where decisions on how to optimize your investment decisions were born, these were not practiced. It took 20 to 25 years of generating graduates at business schools and sending them to the job market so that they would convince their ‘boss with a hat’ of the methods they learned. We think that we will be able to convince the executives in our program to go to their boards of directors and present a case for the value of growth by extending beyond the traditional ways of Arab practices in business management. This is not going to be a push-button thing. Spreading this culture through our executive MBAs and our regular MBAs as well, we hope that in the next 10 or 20 years the culture of business in the area will evolve. Otherwise we will keep stagnant and not go anywhere.

How can you help the person applying for an EMBA convince their boss or board of directors to let him or her join the program and perhaps pay for it?

I stand yet to be corrected here but I doubt that any of the batch of executives already admitted to the program, got any sponsorship from any of their employers. This is really unfortunate. Trying to invest heavily into their people is still strange to the culture of many companies here. I would be happy to see companies pay their employees’ tuition on a loan basis, repayable after graduation, or share in the cost, or paying with the condition that they stay with the employer for a certain number of years after graduation. I haven’t seen that yet and I would like to help developing this.

You are substantially more expensive than other EMBA programs in Lebanon? Does your program quality justify this?

We did not at all look at current prices in other institutions when we priced our program. We didn’t look at this in the way of pricing. We looked at our MBA, how much it costs, and how much additional costs this program involves. We are talking a whole set of arrangements and different expenses, from data base costs to receiving scholars from outside. In fact, we think that this program may not break even in the beginning, and we don’t guarantee that the price will not be higher in the future.

And you want to transfer the good name recognition of AUB and the high image of your traditional MBA to your standing in executive education.

We are adding a new brand to this institution, but we are not branding ourselves against the local education market; we are branding ourselves on the international scene. If you look at EMBAs at the London School of Economics or Columbia Business School, all of the high-quality programs are above $100,000. So if you compare numbers on quality EMBAs, I think ours is at the moment among the cheapest. We priced our program as a good product at an affordable price, and we are trying to penetrate the market of quality EMBAs.

Does that mean that in the long run executives from major industrialized countries will see your EMBA as a viable option?

Given the image of Lebanon as the link between East and West, this program might fly internationally and we hope it does. Many executives in Europe, Japan and North America have business interests in the Arab world and perhaps want to know more about businesses in the Arab world. Perhaps it would appeal to them to acquire an EMBA here, mingle with people, establish contacts, business prospects for the future.

Would this also reflect positively on Lebanon’s role in the region?

Many people say today that Arab countries developed enough and know what to do, so they don’t need Lebanese anymore to link them to the West. On the surface, this is true. But when you go to the heart of things, you will find that in any business in the Gulf, there will be the Lebanese in the hierarchy, just below the Gulf person who is heading the division. There is value for this Lebanese brand.

Do you regard the wave of new universities in Lebanon as a problem?

People talk of turning Lebanon into the educational center of the Arab world. Turning Lebanon into the educational center of the region is one way to come up with a new market for Lebanon and this needs to be worked out. In this context, we don’t see the new universities as a challenge for AUB. We see them as an attraction to bring students to Lebanon. I will be more than happy to see 50 universities in this country, bringing tens of thousands of new students into the country. The School of Business at AUB is strong and wants to do its job well. We want the rest of the country to also do their jobs well and institutions to be qualified to build a reputation for Lebanon as a center for excellence in education.

MORE ABOUT THE NEW MBA PROGRAM

EXECUTIVE talked to Nadia Shuayto, the program’s coordinator, about its goals in building upon business culture in the Middle East

How did you structure the program?

The program uses a theme-based approach. For instance Fundamentals and Analytics is the theme for the first semester. Participants will earn credits but we decided to deliver the content in a modular format. Rather than giving separate courses on financial management or financial accounting, we decided to have two modules within the theme, and called them ‘soft skills’ and ‘hard skills.’

How long is the program?

The participant is expected to finish the entire Executive MBA program within 18 months. Courses will be given every three weeks for three days, and on very rare occasions, four days. Our target is not just the Lebanese executive; it is the executive from any country in the region. Thus we decided to organize our courses for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, because Thursday and Friday mark the weekend in many countries in the region.

What corporate experience is required for the Executive MBA?

A quality program begins with the participants. We are being very selective and strict on admission. You must have a minimum of seven to eight years of management experience to enter the program. Were equally scrupulous in your selection of faculty?

We are also very selective in our faculty about who will be teaching in the program and we will have many guest speakers from the industry who will talk about their experiences. Some of our keynote speakers are world-renowned authors, coming from Ivy League schools.

What do you expect graduates to take home from this program?

We want to train people to focus on the human aspect of management rather than just focusing on the financial bottom line. With our program we are going to create a well-rounded leader that will become a change agent. As change agents, the graduates of our program will go back to their companies and develop their employees as well. A lot of Middle Eastern executives fear delegating, they fear empowerment. We want to take that fear away from them. We don’t just want leadership at the top – we want an environment of leadership throughout the organization. Our focus is really on human development. Once the human develops, the corporation develops.

The Executive MBA program at AUB is available to participants who qualify by their academic and managerial background. Class size is restricted to 24 persons and the courses for the first class started on February 26, 2004. Cost of the 44-credit program is $600 per credit, or approximately $30,000 for tuition, books and materials. English proficiency is a must.

 

March 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Breadwinners: Pain d’Or’s golden touch

by Anthony Mills March 1, 2004
written by Anthony Mills

Pain d’Or, the Lebanese bread, pastry, and confectionery manufacturers are investing $20 million into a new Saudi Arabian operation, which the company hopes will eventually lead to a multinational status. The new company, which will open in a year, will incorporate Pain d’Or’s full production, sales points and delivery network concept as Pain d’Or’s whole Lebanon range of products will be on offer in the Kingdom. “Saudi Arabia is the biggest economy in the Middle East. That is why we started our expansion there,” said manager Hachem el Koussa. “We will probably open in [the Saudi capital] Riyadh,” said Koussa. “It is central. The government is based there and the buying power is strongest there. But we plan to gradually cover the whole of the Kingdom.” In parallel to the international ventures, Pain d’Or is continuing to expand nationally, in particular into regions of the country in which it does not yet have a presence.

Pain D’Or’s story began almost 20 years ago, when in war-ravaged Beirut of 1986, bread deliverymen braved Beirut’s Green Line on a daily basis to ensure that customers got their bread.

“Today, Pain d’Or is a household name,” said Koussa, whose family company, the Malco Group (previously the Malco Trading Co) was founded by Hachem’s father and his three brothers four years earlier in 1982. Originally, the company specialized in restaurants, but the war-related instability prompted Malco Trading to branch out. Enter Pain d’Or with bread and pastries in 1986 (as well as Fantasia, the snack food company, in 1992).Today, the Malco Group manages three companies: the Malco Manufacturing and Distribution Company (MMD), HMDR – which is responsible for Pain d’Or production and sales – and the original Malco Trading Co. – which deals with the Malco Group’s restaurant interests, Horseshoe and Abu Nuwass. Pain d’Or was born, explained Koussa, out of his father’s empathy with the plight of a people suffering because of the war. In 1986, as inflation skyrocketed, vast swaths of the Lebanese population found themselves impoverished. The situation was particularly grim for children, Koussa recalled. “It was a new kind of war – economic war,” he said. “Our aim, in launching Pain d’Or, was to help ourselves, and the Lebanese people. We thought: if children can’t buy chocolate, let’s create something they can buy instead. And we invented the Pain au Lait.”

The war had also rendered movement around Beirut, and Lebanon in general, hazardous, so Pain d’Or created a unique distribution network. “Customers couldn’t come to us. We said: Ok, if they can’t come to us, why don’t we go to them? In this way, they were able to make hamburgers at home, with buns, without venturing out into the streets.”

The fledgling enterprise didn’t allow the East-West division of Beirut to stand in its way. “We refused to divide the country ourselves,” declared Koussa. “We went everywhere. It was dangerous for our workers, of course. But Pain d’Or was for everyone. We made this our slogan. It was our duty.”

Initially, Pain d’Or only produced and distributed. It had no outlets. The first shop opened on Corniche al-Mazraa in 1988, when its range was restricted to eight items, compared to the 300 it offers today.

Other companies were already producing many of the products offered by Pain d’Or, but Pain d’Or pegged its distinctiveness on the unification of a whole range of diverse, not necessarily unique, items under one brand name. “There has always been competition with respect to individual items,” Koussa acknowledged. “However, Pain d’Or combined many lines of production under one umbrella. Maybe there is a lot of competition with regard to bread, sweets, or donuts, but we unified everything in one establishment. Our strategy was: be different.”

Thanks to Pain d’Or, people no longer had to queue in bread lines, or purchase from what Koussa called, “unhygienic shops.” Most different of all, though, was the fact that Pain d’Or did not immediately produce Arabic bread. At the time, the Arabic bread flour available did not, Koussa claimed, meet Pain d’Or’s hygiene and overall quality specifications. In 1992, Pain d’Or developed a strategy, which it hoped would allow it to compete with emerging investor blocs. It began to open outlets across the country, to bring its products closer to the consumer. Today, there are 18 Pain d’Or shops throughout Lebanon, of which six are in Beirut. The company intensified its diversification efforts, while simultaneously attempting to raise consumer awareness. “Previously,” Koussa explained, “if a customer wanted any type of French bread, they would say: give me French bread. Now they specify what they want, but this has taken us more than 10 years.”

The path to customer enlightenment was painstakingly slow but meticulously planned. “We didn’t introduce real French bread right away,” confessed Koussa. “European people like to chew. They like to eat hard bread. Americans don’t. They like to eat soft bread. Lebanese people like to eat soft bread. If we had given them hard bread straightaway, we would have had a problem. We slowly made some of the bread harder. Now, the Lebanese eat hard bread as well as soft bread,” he said. It was hard going at times, but Pain d’Or effectively pioneered the introduction of European-style bread to Lebanon, thus creating a whole new market, which eventually became saturated in the 1990s. “It was useless to compete,” said Koussa. “It was better to create a new market and that was why we expanded our range.” Today, though, neither Pain d’Or’s ‘broad variety under one umbrella’ trademark nor its array of European-style breads is unique, Pain d’Or remains the market leader, with an annual turnover of between $10 million and $15 million a year, and employs over 500 staff. The business has been dealt a tremendous blow by Lebanon’s economic and financial crisis, in particular by the introduction of Value Added Tax (VAT) in 2002. “Especially with our kind of products, which are not cheap, we could not introduce VAT without having a conflict with our customers,” Koussa recalled. “2002 was a disaster for us. Many of our customers refused to pay the VAT. They didn’t understand it.” In the interest of preserving its client base, Pain d’Or often paid VAT out of its own pocket. In so doing, it lost $2-3 million and saw its profit for 2002 wiped out.

In 2003, the company puts its shoulder to the yoke, armed with a strategy designed to help it recoup its losses. Essentially, it distributed its overheads across a broader, more diversified base by introducing a host of new products and establishing more outlets, and by increasing distribution. It also spent 6% to 10 % of its budget on advertising, especially with brochures and flyers, and on marketing its ‘healthy bread’ concept. These measures ensured that Pain d’Or revenues, helped by extra tourists, grew by 15% to 20% in 2003.

March 1, 2004 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Spike in the Euro

by Faysal Badran March 1, 2004
written by Faysal Badran

Back in January 2002, we analyzed the fate of the euro in this section, looking at its performance since its launch and placing the technical framework for what appeared to be a move up, destined to hit the $1.17-$1.20 area. As is often the case in the currency markets, the euro has not only overshot on the upside, but has clearly been on an uninterrupted rampage against all currencies reaching 1.2950 against the US dollar. This has been the result of a confluence of factors. While it is entertaining to look at the factors, we should keep in mind that the strength of the euro is more attributable to a weakness in the US dollar, both market driven and policy driven than any convincing fundamental strength in the European economy, either nominally or on a relative basis. The fact that global central banks, especially in Asia have been replenishing their non-dollar reserves as the euro has gained adopters, has exacerbated the trend. The US has basically “allowed” the dollar to drift lower, only paying lip service to calls by European business leaders to stabilize it, primarily because it represents a clear edge for American companies and does in effect reduce the value of US debt, held by foreigners. This is a gross oversimplification, as the currency markets are pretty much driven by demand and supply, and as the US economy has grown, it has sucked in more imports as added fuel to the currency’s gains. Though it is the author’s view that the rise of the euro is nearly over, let us look at its effects, anecdotal and fundamental, on the economies of Lebanon and the region.

For Lebanon, the euro’s move has caused several punctual trends to amplify, as if the conditions of the economy weren’t tough enough. Europe is Lebanon’s largest trading partner, as imports into Lebanon from the key European countries (Italy, France and Germany) account for 29% of total imports. It is not surprising that the euro’s 35% appreciation against the dollar, in a highly dollarized environment, has been felt in many sectors – most acutely in automobiles, but also in food and apparel. Already hit by a weak domestic economy, and the accompanying drop in the purchasing power of households, European goods have added a further burden. The price jump of products originating in Europe has caused some spectacular price changes in cars and even shampoos, causing shifts away from them towards Asian and US goods. It is too early to gauge the full impact, but in the contracting area for instance, there is talk of a 25% to 40% jump in construction costs, in part attributed to the roaring euro. To be fair, the prices of dollar-priced materials associated with building also played a role, as steel, cement and copper prices rose considerably in a matter of months. Copper, for instance, has doubled since the month of September.

While one cannot yet speak of durable changes in consumer behavior towards European products, it is clear from speaking to retailers and traders, that the rise, if it were to last, could rebalance the local product distribution in favor of non-European products. For businesses importing European products, the hit to the bottom line has been felt, as they are unable to pass on the full euro rise, and thus feel the pinch to their volume growth and eventually, bottom line. Clearly the banks here have a greater role to play in developing hedging ideas for their customers, who rely on imports that are not priced in dollars. As always, most banks, mesmerized by their favorite client – the state – are not innovating when it comes to guiding their clients through the vagaries of currency fluctuation. They are left to figure out how to protect themselves, largely on their own.

While products and services have clearly suffered, there is a more intangible aspect to the euro’s (and to a lesser extent the sterling’s) rise – which is the general impoverishment of Lebanon and the region. For the oil states for instance, who ought to be enjoying the fruits of a $35/barrel oil price, and are hit with a collapse of their own currencies that remain for the most part pegged to the US dollar – this is an offsetting factor. As more money, post-September 11 trends, has remained in local currencies, the reverse wealth effect is clear, and it has translated into a paradigm shift, at least for now, in tourism. And the winner has been, to a large extent Lebanon. As many Gulf Arabs shun Europe due to the increased cost of a week in France, Italy and Spain, they have opted for vacationing in Lebanon, a more easily absorbed “dollar for dollar” holiday. Intuitively, one would hope that industries such as wine and olive oil would be clear winners of the current environment.

As long as the region thinks in dollars, and calculates its net worth in dollars, large swings in foreign currency will have an impact – but quite frankly, it is hardly the most crucial problem at present for the region, which suffers from deeper structural weaknesses. Still, a spike in the euro has added complexity to doing business and buying goods. It is likely that if, and when the euro deflates, (I happen to think it will toward $1.10), the pressures on retail trade will subside, and the ability of the author to purchase his dream German automobile may improve. The move of the euro has undoubtedly reflected the fragility of a region linked almost umbilically to the US dollar, as reserves are revalued in terms of their global worth, and households reassess their appetite for cherished European goods. It is also worth noting that the shift of preference by some Arab shoppers toward European products in the context of the unpopular war in Iraq has been dealt a severe blow.

 

March 1, 2004 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Waiting for BASEL II

by Nicolas Photiades March 1, 2004
written by Nicolas Photiades

The Basel II Capital Accord, the set of rules issued by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in 1999 to establish new regulations for banks world-wide, aims to encourage the development of better risk management by banks. Additionally it aims to add momentum to consolidation in the banking sector, change the shape of the credit curve through credit related differentiation in risk weightings, and strengthen incentives for banks and corporate borrowers to maintain and improve their own credit quality.

Although most large Western banks regard the Basle II Capital Accord compliance targets as simply an “officialization” of their practices over the last decade, Lebanese banks are yet ill-prepared to meet them. They are not alone in their anguish, as most Asian, African and emerging market banks, as well as some smaller US and European banks, consider the forthcoming regulations to be impossible to meet, and are contemplating an increasingly uncertain future.

Such anxiety is easily understood, as there are still several factors that are inhibiting the development of risk management cultures and processes. Indeed, Lebanese banks still have a weaker connection between risk management and corporate strategy than their Western peers, there is a lower level of risk management review at the board level, as well as a weaker link between management performance and risk management effectiveness. They also lack the appropriate historical data to develop and support their internal models. The culture – whereby a banker’s performance is determined by his ability to raise deposits and generate revenues – is clearly insufficient and cannot be developed quickly enough to embody credit risk consciousness. Some banks in Lebanon do not realize that one miscalculation of credit, market or operational risk can have dire consequences on already limited capital.

The Basel II Accord requires banks to generate a healthy and recurrent return out of a carefully planned risk portfolio. The difficult environment provided by the Lebanese economy has affected their ability for efficient diversification. They all offer the same traditional services and have not shown imagination in activity and product diversification. Moreover, loan data collection, which constitutes an imperative part of Basel II’s directives (very useful for calculating probabilities of default, exposure at default, etc.), has always been the weakest aspect of most Lebanese banks. Some of the larger banks have only recently started to build up a data warehouse, whereas Basel II requires banks to have a minimum of five years’ data in order to be able to develop an internal rating system.

The gathering of qualitative data assumes greater importance in Lebanon than in Europe for example. Financial accounts do not necessarily show the real picture and Lebanese banks have to show extra care in gathering non-financial data that could at some point prove to be instrumental in the lending decision. Lebanese banks also present some weaknesses in terms of credit analysis capabilities. Indeed, credit analysis methodologies are seldom developed, and risk mitigation techniques remain basic. For example, most banks have not yet developed advanced skills such as transferring risk by way of securitization, (although to be fair, the legal environment in that context has not been developed as yet), seeking new risk mitigating skills by using collateral that is not correlated to the loan itself, and creating liquidity in the credit market.

With Basel II, Lebanese banks will no longer be able to follow the safe but undifferentiated strategy of accepting a given level of market pricing, holding all assets underwritten and not differentiating their risk portfolio sufficiently. They will have to run their business and develop their lending according to economic considerations and view shareholder value as a key driver, rather than just abiding by regulatory standards. Banks in Lebanon will also have to learn to live with capital volatility, update their risk models to take into account extreme economic conditions such as those that now prevail in the country, and strive for improved data for their risk management systems.

Failure to develop these capabilities could result in credit crunches, as banks would choose to stop lending if risk models provide inaccurate assessments, creating as a result a real economic crisis that would impact negatively on small and medium size enterprises and individual borrowers. A credit crunch is the last thing a fragile Lebanese economy needs at the moment, and the banks carry a heavy responsibility. There must be a will to transform the Lebanese banking sector into a sophisticated lending machine, rather than just a deposit bank-system, with the sole purpose of financing the government through treasury bond subscriptions.

Certain medium and small-sized banks could be faced with no alternative but to withdraw from certain activities, such as corporate lending, which they cannot develop according to Basel II guidelines, due to a lack of resources. The shunning of some commercial or investment banking activities could be harmful to the domestic economy, which is already in dire need of financing diversification. Moreover, the contraction in the activities of a certain number of banks could lead to a frenzy of bank sales and mergers. Indeed, around 40 banks are not expected to be able to implement the Basel II guidelines, and will be hurrying up to sell their franchise, to larger domestic, regional or international banks. Such a clogging up of merger and acquisition activity could lead to significantly depressed prices for the sellers, and could in turn harm depositors’ confidence in the banking sector.

As for banks willing to implement the Basel II Accord and hence be competitive on a global, or at least a regional basis, they will inevitably need to increase their capital at one stage. Although current capitalization levels for the larger banks appear more than comfortable at the moment – with capital adequacy ratios exceeding the 20% mark – the application of Basel II rules as they appear today is likely to reduce such ratios to levels below 8%, which is the current regulatory minimum for banks world-wide. (Banque du Liban currently imposes a minimum capital adequacy ratio of 12%). This possible outcome would force banks to seek additional capital, which can normally be obtained through the capital markets. However, the local equity market is illiquid, there is no appetite from retail investors for domestic shares, and the trend for emerging market share offerings has been dead and buried for a very long time. On the other hand, domestic banks could increase their capital through organic growth, although this requires time and the maintenance of profitability at current levels, or they could have existing shareholders or new strategic investors inject fresh capital.

In any case, there is no turning back now. Basel II is expected to be imposed by the beginning of 2007 – for banks in G10 countries – and Lebanese banks will have no choice but to either take the challenge of Western peer pressure and be compliant with the guidelines – or become smaller niche players. Embracing the challenge of Basel II can only be beneficial to Lebanese banks, and could ultimately prove to be a major factor towards a potentially significant economic recovery.

Nicolas Photiades is managing director of Orion Financial Solutions. He is an advisor to the Lebanese banking sector on securitization and structured financing.

BASEL II EXPLAINED

Under the accord, a new set of risk ratings for borrowers determine the capital a bank needs to approve loans

The Basel II Capital Accord is a set of new capital rules for banks worldwide. The idea is that the riskier the loan portfolio or assets, the more capital a bank needs to hold. Basel I established minimum capital requirements for lending based on a definition of regulatory capital, and a measure of risk exposure and rules specifying the level of capital in relation to those risks. Under Basel II, the definitions of regulatory capital and the level of capital (8%) in relation to risk exposures are unchanged. The main changes relate to the measures of risk exposure, and within this, the focus on credit risk exposure, on which the proposed risk weightings are based. Measurements for market and operational risk are still being discussed.

Basel II gives a great deal of importance to credit ratings, which will determine the risk weighting on an asset and hence the amount of capital needed. For example, if a borrower is rated B (below investment grade) internally or externally, then it will have a risk weighting of 150%, but if it was rated AA, then the risk weighting would be 20%. Of course, all risk exposures have to be classified into categories, with each one subject to specific risk inputs, weights and minimum requirements. Under Basel I, the risk weightings had less differentiation and were divided into only four categories (0%, 20%, 50% and 100%). Under Basel II there is a multitude of risk weightings, which are determined by external ratings or a bank’s internal rating system.

Example: Under Basel I, a corporate borrower would obtain a risk weighting of 100%, regardless of its rating. If this corporate borrower took a loan of US$10 million, then the bank would have to set aside US$800,000 of capital (100% x 8% = 8%, ® 8% x US$10 million = US$800,000).

Under Basel II, the risk weighting on the same corporate borrower would depend on its rating. If the bank has an internal rating system, and rates this corporate A, then the risk weighting would be 50%. Therefore, a US$10 million exposure on this borrower would require capital of US$400,000 (50% x 8% = 4%, ® 4% x US$10 million = US$400,000).

 

March 1, 2004 0 comments
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Real Estate

Hanging on in there

by Anthony Mills March 1, 2004
written by Anthony Mills

For the time being Verdun is still Beirut’s leading shopping district. This is the verdict from retailers and real estate brokers alike, who despite acknowledging that the area will eventually feel the pinch from Beirut’s Central District – believe that Verdun has the ‘critical mass’ to weather the storm


However, many experts feel that this optimism for the district’s viability may generate overly optimistic business initiatives – such as the proposed $120 million, V5 shopping center with its planned 50,000m2 of net retail space, and another 12,000m2 development adjacent to the Concord Galleria in northern Verdun, which experts say will firm up both ends of the shopping district.

In the meantime, the jewel in the crown of Verdun remains the Dunes commercial center, which with its Holiday Inn, cinemas, food courts, amusement arcades and shops – is arguably the most successful multi-purpose retail development in the country. The complex, which attracts Gulf Arab shoppers in particular, is a center piece of the shopping district.

“Samir Rayess [the Dunes center’s owner] has got it right,” said Raja Makarem of RAMCO, real estate consultants. “He’s got a winning formula. It’s clean, well managed and he’s finessed the leisure concept in the basement. It works. He’s understood that when Gulf Arabs come here in the summer, they don’t sunbathe. They stay indoors during the day and go out at night.” Makarem traced much of the center’s success and popularity to what he described as its most significant anchors: its cinemas, and the two major local brands, GS and Aishti. “Dunes has more to offer than Verdun 732,” he said. “It’s a more complete concept. Verdun 732 is anchored by two cafes.” Unlike the original owners of Verdun 732 and Verdun 730, Rayess has resisted the temptation to sell his retail space, making it easier for him to replace non-performing tenants. “If they don’t do well, I can put someone else in,” he said, sitting in his office in the Dunes center. “I can say: ‘I’m going to have five jewelers, five ladies’ wear, two men’s wear, four footwear,’ because I know that’s what will generate the highest turnover.”

Naturally Rayess is bullish about Verdun’s retail future and believes the controversial V5 project will only add to the area’s profile. “It will strengthen the position of Verdun Street. It is not only a mall for Verdun. It is a mall for Beirut,” he said. Asked if the complex would be able to attract enough shoppers, Rayess responded with an emphatic “yes.” He predicted that foremost among the center’s patrons would be Gulf Arabs, who constitute Verdun’s commercial lifeblood. Makarem, whose company is involved in the V5 project, supports Rayess’ claims. “No Gulf tourist comes to Beirut without visiting Verdun,” he said. If completed, the Hariri Group and Kuwaiti-financed mall, to be situated at the lower end of Verdun, would offer five times as much retail area as the ABC in Dbayeh, and nearly 20 times that covered by the Dunes center. Yet not everyone is so positive about the new mega shopping development. “We don’t have the roads for a shopping center that size,” said Michael Dunn, managing director of Michael Dunn & Co. Real Estate Consultants. “It would need huge amounts of parking. But the main thing is we don’t have enough people within an approximate five-minute drive time to make it work. Who’s going to go there? It’s just going to be a big, hairy white elephant.”

Georges Salti, development manager of the Daher Group, which owns Zara and Mango in Lebanon and is one of Verdun’s biggest retailers, echoed Dunn’s doubts.

“You cannot build a 90,000 square meter commercial center on six levels, in a small street, which you need 35 minutes to get to from, anywhere in the world,” he said. Easy access, he stressed, is a vital contributor to the success of any shopping center, as is the golden rule that only in rare instances must it exceed two levels, and never three. Detractors also point to the fact that the 7,000m2 plot upon which V5 will be built, indicates that the center would possibly rise as high as seven stories. “It just doesn’t work,” said Dunn. “Shopping centers only work, in the ideal world, on two levels. Perfect is one. Two works because people will walk up one level. But three levels don’t work unless you’re in Manhattan or Tokyo, where there’s a shortage of land. In Beirut, we don’t have a shortage of land.”

The outlook for V5 is rendered even bleaker, critics warn, by the anticipated emergence of downtown as a prime shoppers’ destination and the mushrooming of more accessible commercial centers on the outskirts of the capital, such as the ADMIC project in Dbayeh. Makarem believed there is room in west Beirut for a big shopping center, and that Verdun would be an ideal location for it. Verdun’s critical mass would, he argued, ensure that a steady-enough flow of V5 customers would be generated. He said it was highly likely the project would be implemented. “I can’t see it not materializing,” he said

Even though Verdun may have lost the confidence of the super brands – Gucci and Tod’s for example – the area still boasts nearly 30% more international brands than the BCD. “With all the brand names that you have in Verdun, it is still the number one destination in Beirut for shopping,” said Rayess. Nonetheless, by July 2003, 17 retail outlets – of which eight were international – had closed in Verdun since 2002. The good news is that most of the outlets were rapidly replaced. Dunn said he expected rents for retailers in Verdun to dip further, as the BCD gains momentum. They have already declined by 20% over the last couple of years to $800/m2, as tenants failed to do the kind of business that justifies high rents. Revenues would also “take a hit,” he predicted. Makarem echoed Dunn, predicting a “healthy” drop in rents, with the BCD constituting the benchmark.

Overall though, industry insiders say, Verdun will remain fairly stable, despite the ripples spawned by an invigorated BCD. Verdun will be to Beirut what Passy and St Germain des Prés are to Paris, Dunn suggested. “There are enough shops and enough people to go shopping in them,” he said. An energized downtown retail sector could even, some observers say, create a spin-off effect that actually boosts demand in Verdun. “We will complement each other,” said Salti. “There will definitely be serious competition between downtown and Verdun,” predicted Makarem. “But I think they will both survive. Verdun is an established market. There is room for both. We could end up with healthy competition – which would be of benefit to the market and the public.” For his part, Rayess said: “Even when the souks are operational, Verdun will continue to be a leading destination for shoppers.” He pointed out that his GS and Timberland retail outlets in the Dunes center were registering an increase in revenues of more than 10% a year, despite the emergence of the BCD.

Nonetheless, Salti did acknowledge that the Daher Group’s plans for Verdun do not extend beyond 10 years at the most, because of the unpredictability of the Lebanese market. “We don’t know if Verdun is going to perform beyond ten years. Things might change in five or six years,” he said. “The clients might go somewhere else.”
 

March 1, 2004 0 comments
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Real Estate

Affording Your Home

by Peter Speetjens March 1, 2004
written by Peter Speetjens

The mission was simple. A couple with a combined monthly income of $3,000, a salary that puts them in the top 10% of the nation’s earners, would go shopping for a new house to see what they could afford and where. This couple would not have access to a huge inheritance, nor generous parents (why should they?) They, like most modern couples, would go to their bank and apply for a mortgage. Our one concession was that we did give our imaginary couple the 30% down payment, which they had saved. Without it (at least according to the rules laid out in the lending requirements), no bank will approve a loan, irrespective of salary.

The banks they spoke to would only approve a mortgage that had repayments that did not exceed one third of their combined salary. Based on that, our couple could borrow $120,000 to be paid back over 15 years at a 7% interest. In total they would pay back roughly $180,000. With their hard-earned savings thrown into the kitty our couple had $160,000.

What could they buy?

With prices in excess of $1,800m2, the BCD has nothing to offer, so our couple ventured into Tabaris, where it soon became clear that pickings were equally slim. “The closer you want to live to the BCD, the more expensive it will be,” said Lara Kanj, of Ashada Real Estate in Tabaris. “The problem is the price of land is normally 25% to 30% of the sales price, but in areas such as Tabaris, Sursock and Abdel Wahab areas, it may be up to 40% and this is reflected in the final price.”

The apartments built in these areas are generally large, luxurious and cost $1,500/m2. The smallest unit of 233m2 in the beautiful Ashada apartment complex just constructed in a quiet corner of Tabaris, costs $350,000. “What you could do,” Kanj said, “is to buy an old house – if you can find one without old rents and 60 family members fighting over the inheritance. In these cases the price will drop to $800/m2, but you will have to spend roughly $200/m2 for renovation.”

Properties in Mar Mitr, Sassine, Sioufi, Gemaizeh and Geitawi were more realistic. A newish 150m2, 3-bedroom apartment could be bought for as little as $1,000/m2, although the finishing won’t be spectacular, and often parking or central air conditioning or heating will not be included. If you don’t mind living in an old and at times slightly run-down building, there are still plenty of opportunities in these areas to find prices as low as $500/m2. “If I had $150,000 to spend on a house, I would forget about Ashrafieh and head for Hazmieh or Yarzeh. There you’ll find beautiful spacious apartments with a view for your budget,” Kanj said.

On the other side of town in Sanaya, it turned out to be more or less the same story as in Ashrafieh. One new 200m2 apartment on the edge of the garden was selling at $280,000 ($1400/m2), while a palatial, granite apartment block also overlooking the garden, offers apartments of 450m2 with a price tag of $900,000 ($2,000/m2).

Inside the narrow streets of Watwat, the prices tumble. “There you can find cheaper locations for $800 to $1000/m2,” said architect and interior designer Mohamed Haidar. “However, these are slightly older, usually 2-bedroom apartments and are generally not bigger than 100m2.” Hamra and Ras Beirut proved more encouraging. Around Concorde and Jean d’Arc it was possible to find a 150m2, 3-bedroom apartment for some $150,000. “That wouldn’t be a brand new building though,” said Haidar. “Maybe up to 20 years old. The new apartments in the areas of Hamra, Ras Beirut, Verdun and Telat el Khayat sell for a minimum of $1500/m2.”

It was becoming clear that $160,000 doesn’t get you an awful lot in the prime locations, the sole preserve of wealthy expats and Gulf holiday makers. The situation is not likely to improve. Both Kanj and Haidar confirmed that the average price per square meter will only increase over the next few years, as a consequence of the higher prices of steel and concrete, the strength of the euro and the Value Added Tax (VAT). Whether this will pressure land prices to fall remains to be seen.

“One m3 of concrete has risen from $120 to $150, said Haidar, adding that steel prices have doubled and all imported products are subject to 10% VAT. “One should estimate an average increase of some $200 per m2, especially for top-end apartments,” he said.

Our couple headed out of Beirut’s property hotspots to find that $160,000 could buy them a whole lot of real estate. “You can find wonderful apartments for up to $1,000/m2 in the areas overlooking the Hippodrome and Jardin du Pins,” said Haidar. “Most of them will be bigger than 150m2, but if you’ll search a little, I’m sure you can find something.”

Even cheaper is the popular, yet more central area of Mousaitbeh, where the three new Beirut Towers have recently gone up. They look unimpressive from the outside, but the interior is comfortable, spacious and carefully finished, and sales manager Ghada Berro was quick to offer a deal: a 160m2 apartment with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, or a 220m2 apartment with 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms for $110,000 and $150,000 respectively. However, these are “rack rates,” and a tenant suggested that prices might come down a further 15%. Add to that the extras, such as underground parking, air conditioning, a generator and 24-hour security, and you actually have an excellent deal.

If you go further down into the southern suburbs, prices in some areas fall as low as $300 to $400/m2, which for $160,000 will buy a veritable penthouse of 400m2 to 500m2. “The problem with south Beirut however, is that the region developed so rapidly without planning, that it lacks urban tissue and has a lot of traffic problems,” said Haidar.

Prices in the northern suburbs Antelias and Zalka also fall off to around $500/m2. Real estate agent George Younes offered a 200m2 apartment with 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms for $125,000 in Antelias. In Zalka, prices were similar. The only exception being Rabieh, where prices start in dreamland and go up. However, further north in areas like Zouk, Jounieh, Ajaltoun, and Ghadir general prices fall to $300/m2.

Our couple also consulted the world wide web. Scrolling through the pages of One Estate’s website, they were pleasantly surprised to find that $80,000 (half their budget) can buy you a 180m2 apartment with a 200m2 garden, while in Ajaltoun they could blow the lot on a 260m2 apartment with a 90m2 terrace, overhanging pine trees and a view over the sea and mountains.

March 1, 2004 0 comments
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The Buzz

Who’s Following the Leader?

by Tommy Weir March 1, 2004
written by Tommy Weir

Sir Ernest Shakelton and crew spent the years 1914 to 1916 shipwrecked and stranded in pursuit of their dream – reaching Antarctica. The miracle of this story is that they survived. How can a crew of men stranded in one of the most desolate parts of the world, survive in inhumane temperatures and conditions?

Leadership!

Shakelton’s men wanted to follow him; he did not force them to do so. He was a people-centered leader and his example can be a guide for anyone in a position of leadership. What is “people-centered leadership” or, what we call “all-encompassing leadership?”

All-encompassing leadership is like a compass. A compass points out what direction you are headed. It identifies where north, south, east and west are. All-encompassing leadership is also concerned with direction – the direction of leadership. Leadership focuses on four directions: downward (employees), sideward (peers), upward (bosses), and inward (self).

Unfortunately, I (Tommy) remember having to use a compass one day when I was out exploring in the wilderness. As is typical for me, I was separated from everybody else, doing my own thing. Suddenly I became terrified as it dawned on me that I was lost. Not knowing where to turn or what direction to go in, I had to rely on my compass for direction. Surely, you have had similar moments of panic. Just as the compass is a helpful tool when you are lost in the wilderness, so can all-encompassing leadership be when you find yourself lost in the wilderness of organizational life.

Many times, leaders are lost in their jobs and have no idea where to turn or what to do. It is not surprising to discover that many leaders (or at least holders of leadership positions), do not always know what direction to head toward.

All-encompassing leadership is not too much concerned with the strategic direction of the organization or products, performance, results and rewards. Rather, it is concerned with the direction of the leader’s focus. His or her focus should point towards people.

Take a moment and think about this. What does leadership require? This is not a trick question. Leadership requires followers. Who are followers? People! So why is there so much focus on performance, products, etc.? It is a mistake that many organizations make. If the focus of leadership begins with people, real performance indicators and results will occur.

Before even deciding what products to concentrate on, the Sony Corporation set out from the beginning to become a great company. To do this, the leaders knew that they must focus on people. And this is what they did. They hired and developed the best. If you take away anything from this article, please remember this one word – people.

So, why is leadership about people? For one thing, there is no such thing as leadership without followers. People are an asset entrusted to you by your organization. More money is spent on payroll and other personnel related areas than any other item in organizational life. In mostly every organization, the people-related issue is the largest asset on the balance sheet. Nevertheless, it is surprising that in many cases employees are treated like a liability.

If you hired someone to manage your investment, what would be the expected outcome? Of course the desired outcome would be the growth of your portfolio. You would never be satisfied with the simple preservation of the assets. You would want growth.

Then, why is it that so many leaders treat their employees like a liability? It makes much more sense to treat them as an asset and help them grow. As a leader, the focus should be on developing your people as an asset. What percent of your time do you invest in developing people?

Great leaders intuitively know that leadership is about developing people. Jeffery Immlet, the CEO of General Electric, spends 50% of his time growing his people. Both the Harvard Business Review and Courageous Leadership recently wrote of the need for leaders to spend over half of their time developing people. Take a sneak peak into the board rooms of the major corporations and what do you find – you find the board of directors encouraging the CEOs to focus their efforts on the development of their people. Why is this so important? Because, a foundational principle of organizational life is: “A company cannot be any better than its employees.” Your success as a leader and a company, is ultimately dependent on your people.

Be an All-Encompassing Leader

To become an all-encompassing leader, you must know and lead in the four directions: downward, sideward, upward and inward. You may ask, “ok, how do I do this?”

Downward Leadership

Let’s start with the traditional starting place: your employees. How do you lead those who work for you? Take a moment and write out how you think you can best lead your employees.

We often think of approaches like command and control. Although these may be cultural approaches to leadership, deep down we realize that they are limited in their effectiveness.

Great leaders start by getting to know their employees. If you do not know your employees, (meaning more than just their name and birth date), how are you going to have an impact in their life? Start by getting to know who they are; why they are the way they are, what their interests are, dreams, ambitions, strengths and talents? Leadership requires a personal understanding of those around you.

Beyond getting to know your employees, there are three words that you need to remember – believe, inspire and empower. First, you must believe in people. If you do not believe in others, your leadership will be crippled. Forget about theories like McGregor’s Theory X, which says that the average person inherently dislikes work and needs high supervision. We need to move into modernity where leadership is considered a relational process. People are valuable and as a leader you need to believe in them. Believing in others is a simple change of perspective. Try this, walk into work tomorrow and begin to believe the best about your employees. Then do this day after day. Before long, you will see the impact. Once you know and believe in your employees, you can begin to inspire them. Rarely are people inspired by taking orders. Most people are inspired by seeing a picture of the future and understanding how they are a part of it. Take a moment and think through each of your employees and the role that they play. Then let them know why they are important and what you are relying on them to do. Then see if you can pass this test, and let someone else ask each of your employees what role they fulfill for you.

Once your employees know their role, how important that it is, and exactly what you want them to do, you should empower them. Part of this means you are going to have to give work away.

Sideward Leadership

How do you do lead your co-workers? You may be thinking, “I cannot lead them, because they do not report to me.” But, you can and you must. Remember, if you are not leading, you are being led. As you lead your peers, you will be surprised at the leadership you gain.

There are four points you need to remember in order to lead your co-workers. Firstly, you must add value to their life and work. Secondly, you should encourage their growth. Thirdly, you need to share what you have, and what you know. And fourthly, you ought to promote their work. Sometimes, this point seems absurd. But, it really does work. Give it a try and enjoy the results!

Upward Leadership

All-encompassing leadership is about all of the people around you, even your boss.

How do you lead your boss? First, you must remember that he or she is the boss. As we work with various leaders, we find so many people who try to act like they are the boss, when they are not. Your job is to support your boss. You need to anticipate his or her needs, and put their needs ahead of yours. This is one of the most sought after characteristics in employees. Bosses look for people who understand their needs and are willing to meet them.

Also, you should become an encourager. Bosses need encouragement. Leadership is a very lonely place. If you were to take a survey in your organization, the results would most likely reveal that the leadership rarely, if ever, receives encouragement. Instead, they spend most of their time dealing with problems.

And by all means, be trustworthy. It is time that workers stop pretending to support and like their leader, while talking behind his or her back. As you support, encourage and show yourself to be trustworthy you will gain a multitude of future leadership opportunities. By doing this, you are showing yourself to be a loyal employee.

With each of these directions of leadership, it is important to remember one point. You need to help others succeed. This is the key to leading others. It makes no difference if they are your peers, boss or employees. If you do this, your ability to lead will reach far beyond anything that you have ever imagined. And it will most likely spread throughout and perhaps beyond, your company.

To summarize all-encompassing leadership, let us take a look into the average promotion process of great organizations. Suppose Maha and Nour are up for a promotion. They have all of the same performance indicators, education, and they have been at the company for the same length of time. As a matter of fact, they are equally matched in every surface area. Therefore, the senior management team takes a deeper look. Firstly, they look to see who is in “each wallet,” (this is a phrase indicating who you have taken with you in your career). As they look in Maha’s wallet, they notice that she has done a great job of building a loyal team. When they investigate Nour’s wallet, they see that she, too, has developed a faithful following. But her wallet is more like a family album, many people who have worked around her are in other positions throughout the organization. Some are even in higher positions of leadership. Who gets the job? Maha has the experience, the numbers and the faithful following, but she gets to keep her current job. Why? Because, Nour helped others succeed. So in effect, she helped the company succeed. Success for a leader is in the people around you. Are you succeeding?

(To learn inward leadership, continue to read Executive Tools throughout 2004.)

*Tommy Weir and Christine Crumrine are from Beirut-based CrumrineWeir, the global leadership experts.

 

March 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Battling the tide

by Anthony Mills February 1, 2004
written by Anthony Mills

Saudi billionaire Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal’s recent $98 million purchase of a 49% share in the satellite broadcasting arm of leading Lebanese television station LBC International has provided a welcome, if modest, boost to Lebanon’s satellite television sector. The industry has been struggling to compete with cash-laden Gulf channels like market leader MBC and Abu Dhabi TV – both backed financially by their respective governments – and to overcome the roughly $30 million, or 20%, loss in 2003 television advertising revenues caused, according to LBC Chairman Pierre Daher, by the war in Iraq and the bombings in Riyadh.

“The move has reinforced the position of LBC as a potential leader in the region,” stated Daher. “Walid bin Talal did not make this jump into LBC just because he felt like it. It was carefully planned. He thinks LBC has potential,” said Daher, who discounted the suggestion that bin Talal, who bought the stake in LBCSAT – valued at $200 million – from Arab Radio and Television (ART) chairman Sheikh Saleh Kamel, might wish to exert editorial pressure on the station. Meanwhile, other Lebanese stations are hoping the development signals a trend that will allow them to forge similar strategic, financially rewarding partnerships.

Not everyone, however, is optimistic. “Lebanon’s satellite television channels have serious problems,” remarked one media professional. “LBC and Future were very good satellite TV stations until the Gulf people decided to invest more in their TV stations. Now you have private stations like LBC and Future competing with MBC, which is funded by the Saudi government, with Abu Dhabi TV, backed by its government, and with al-Jazeera. They can’t compete.” He said annual satellite television budgets had in some instances, in the Gulf, quadrupled in two years, from about $25 million, to $100 million. Lebanese channels, although just as creative and aptly managed, have been left financially adrift in the wake.

The bin Talal move has at least consolidated LBC’s position at the head of the Lebanese satellite television sector. Future TV remains hot on its heels. “It’s mainly LBC and Future that are making money,” said the chairman and general manager of NBN, Nasser Safieddine. “Apart from them, I don’t think any Lebanese station is making serious income from the satellite market.”

Of bin Talal’s foray into LBC, he said: “All of us in the Lebanese media welcome this. A boost for any Lebanese station is a boost for the whole sector,” he said, before adding, “NBN is looking for a strategic partner. We are not ashamed to say this. Because competing, as we do today, with stations that have budgets that are 10, 15, 20 times as big as ours is useless.”

Bin Talal’s establishment of the 24-hour music channel, Rotana – backed by a music production company, and using the old Lebanese MTV infrastructure – has also been hailed as a smart business move that also benefits Lebanon’s satellite TV sector. “Rotana is different. It is a complete organization. It takes care of music production television programming. I think that very soon they will be the leaders of music television in the Arab world,” said one media executive. “And it’s good for Lebanon. It’s money coming in.” “People get fed up with news. They want something different,” added another. “It’s a good move,” agreed Safieddine. “It’s easier to market music and songs than educational programs.”

LBCI has been sub-contracted by the American Harris Corp, which has won a $96 million contract to refurbish Iraq’s official media to train Iraqi anchorpersons.

Still, old habits prevail. The weekly LBC political satire show Bass Mat Watan was suspended at the end of last month by the National Audiovisual Media Council (NAMC) after it played a practical joke that, according to the government body, “harmed the image and authority of the state, and shook the country’s stability”. At the end of 2003, New TV owner Tahseen Khayyat was arrested on charges of treason. All agreed the move constituted a politically motivated attack on the media. Khayyat was released 25 hours later and the charges were dropped. “On the face of it, it looks that way,” remarked Walid Azzi, publisher of ArabAd. “It’s not very reassuring,” noted another newspaper executive. “It was harassment.” Safieddine said he felt Khayyat should not have been arrested, but, interestingly, defended self-censorship as a “wonderful thing.”

Lebanon’s print media, for their part, are reeling under a double scourge: miserable circulation figures and worryingly low advertising expenditures, which observers say dropped by 25% last year. Although the market is characterized by an abundance of publications, especially magazines, most are unable to survive without continual financial top-ups. A vicious circle has, in effect, been created: no one wants to advertise in a publication that doesn’t sell. But publications need advertising revenue to expand circulation. Currently, only 16% to 17% of media-related advertising budgets are spent on the print sector, claimed one publisher. This is due, in great part, to the fact that “no magazine sells more than 3,000 copies and no newspaper reaches more than 10,000 readers,” asserted ARABAD publisher Azzi. However, publishers constantly inflate readership figures – sometimes by as much as 50% to 60%. The tendency has become more pronounced, Azzi lamented, as journalistically below-par, spit-and-stick magazines mushroom and compete. “Spitting and sticking is very easy to do, but it’s not journalism,” he said. “You need quality, in-depth journalism and innovation to get a magazine rolling and to get advertising.”

In the struggling print media, An Nahar leads the pack both in terms of quality and advertising revenues, observers agreed. “It’s run by master professionals and has acquired a great deal of integrity. This is why it gets the lion’s share of advertising,” said Azzi. A one-page ad in An Naharcosts between $8,000 and $14,000.

However, even An Nahar is feeling the financial pinch, particularly as its has just bought back, for a considerable, undisclosed sum, Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 34.5% stake in the paper. In the shadow of An Nahar follow As Safir and L’Orient le Jour, and then the Daily Star. The latter two need to be developed, said Azzi, adding that the Daily Star in particular must not make the mistake of thinking it can rest on its laurels because it is the only English-language paper in town. Daily Star Executive Editor Rami Khouri is attempting to ensure that does not happen. The regional Daily Star is undergoing expansion-oriented change, he said. It is now being printed in Lebanon, Kuwait and Qatar and is being sold in 11 countries. “We’re becoming a truly regional paper in terms of our coverage and distribution. We’re making serious ongoing changes in content,” said Khouri, adding that the regional Daily Star aims to become the leading English-language Middle East newspaper with analysis, commentary, insight and interpretation. The Daily Star is not placing as much emphasis on straight news because it believes readers obtain this from other, local papers or from electronic media. To this end, it has developed a still-expanding network of about 150 contributors from around the world.

Meanwhile, the new newspaper Al Balad has elicited mixed reactions and prognoses. “It’s still early to judge,” remarked a cautious Azzi, although he commended the paper’s marketing efforts. Striking a more positive note, NBN General Manager Safieddine said: “I think it’s a very intelligent move. I think they moved into the market in an intelligent way.” An Nahar editor Tueni said he hoped the Al Balad would succeed because competition was good for the market but added that he did not regard the paper as a direct competitor of either An Nahar or As Safir because it’s profile was different: less political and serious. “I haven’t had any reaction,” said LBC Chairman Daher. “It’s new. But I read a paper for politics. Until now, I haven’t seen an editorial line in Al Balad. The rest is nice, but I am not sure I would by a paper for the rest.” Al Balad is currently sorting out a dispute with the Order of the Press, which has accused it of ‘dumping’ its copies at a price forbidden by applicable laws. A newspaper comprising more than 24 pages cannot be sold for less than LL2,000 – Al Balad is selling for LL1,000.

A spokesperson for Al Balad said that after meeting with Order of the Press representatives the newspaper realized it had a stark choice: raise the price or diminish the number of pages. “We will not diminish the number of pages,” the representative stated clearly, “because that would change the nature of Al Balad.”

Industry insiders have suggested that pressure was brought to bear on Al Balad over the pricing issue because of the paper’s apparent support for An Nahar editor Gebran Tueni in his dispute with Nabih Berri. Tueni had implied in an editorial that Berri was involved in the Union des Transports Africains, the company that owned the plane that crashed off Cotonou, Benin, on Christmas day. The idea was, the insiders said, that a ‘rebel’ Al Balad should be tamed – made to understand that, in the view of the Order of the Press, a new newspaper must refrain from siding with the ‘wrong’ party in disagreements involving important politicians.

Would that the industry watchdogs be always so lynx-eyed in their patrolling of the sector. Although there is widespread acknowledgement that the orders have helped defend freedom of the press in Lebanon, many media professionals argued that the two organizations’ directors have used the bodies to bolster their personal prestige rather than to remedy the sector’s ills, and that qualified journalists are being barred entry because they are not at one with the orders’ directors. “These positions are not there to give you prestige. They are supposed to enable you to see exactly what is going on in the business, so that you can correct things,” noted one publisher, who asked not to be identified. “This is not happening.” Mohamad Baalbaki, president of the Order of the Press, denied the claims. “This is not true,” he said. “Whoever says this, doesn’t know the reality of our activities in the order” Qualified journalists had not, he said, been deliberately denied entry. But, he explained, their membership must be approved in a meeting held by an eight-member committee comprising four senior members of the boards of the Journalists and Press Orders respectively. A minimum of five board members must be in attendance for a membership application to be approved. Unfortunately, for two years, no meeting has been held because no board member from the Order of Journalists is willing to show up. “If the representatives of the other order don’t attend the committee meetings the committee cannot make a decision on memberships. Our colleagues in the other order, especially its president, Melhem Karam, don’t like to come to these committee meetings. He prefers not to expand the membership in his order. We are constantly asking him to come to a meeting where membership requests can be studied. He is always busy or traveling,” said Baalbaki. The committee last met, acknowledged Baalbaki, “about two years ago.”

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Shipping Forecast

by Thomas Schellen February 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Marked by an insider language and a particular way of life, modern shipping and transportation has long established its very own culture of connecting nations, cultures, and markets. It has a history of its own, which reaches farther back than that of most other economic activities. Today, the industry consists of a huge variety of services and business specializations, and plays a significant role in the global economy.

Compared to its past roles in facilitating international trade and exchange and also viewed against national economic ambitions, Lebanon’s place in transportation has been small – one can even go as far to say dismal. The contribution of the transportation and shipping sectors to GDP is, in typical fashion, not precisely determined. For a nation reputedly mired in mercantilism, Lebanon recently has been awfully short on transportation essentials, beginning with ships and rigs.

With less than 100 vessels (the number exceeded 300 before 1975), the merchant fleet is not only marginal in size but also overage and, critics say, to a large part technically obsolete. Trucking is an underdeveloped industry too, where no government incentives are extended to either individual owner/operators or fleet owners. Banks are said to be overly reluctant in engaging into financing of either merchant vessels or trucks.

Governmental budget allocations to transportation have shrunk in the past five years. In 2002, the expenditure was 2%, and, as throughout the reconstruction era, the vast majority of these funds were committed to boost the infrastructure.

On the side of road construction, acceptable improvements were achieved but progress has been slower than intended, and nothing at all has progressed with respect to rail. Of all infrastructure measures, the airport rehabilitation and expansion project is most complete, even though it was weighed down with expectations that could not be met in the projected time frame.

In both sea and air transportation, Lebanon’s long-term hope and aspiration is to function as a regional transportation hub. The country’s shipping and transport experts have placed their strongest bets on sea-to-sea transshipment, whereby large container “mother” vessels would call on Beirut Port to unload and load cargo to smaller vessels that provide feeder service to regional ports, to Cyprus, Turkey, Syria, Egypt and eventually the Palestinian territories.

Sea-to-land transshipment plays a lesser role in the scenarios because of the limitations on ground transportation, which protectionist practices of governments in the region have created. Local players have voiced higher hopes for succeeding in multi-modal transportation that would also integrate air shipping into a regional hub function. Beirut, with its port and airport, has momentous potential to fulfill the function. Public sector entities have made industry-wide lauded efforts to improve operations of the facilities, reduce red tape, and act upon suggestions by the shipping industry. However, other ports and airports in the region are competing for the coveted role. The port of Tartous – a strong candidate for growth in the opinion of local experts – last year was granted a 50 million euro expansion loan by the European Investment Bank. In a venture that analysts considered less promising, the Israeli government only last month commissioned a feasibility study for a proposed railroad to link its Mediterranean and Red Sea ports and, in this way, establish a niche role in transshipment. Although the discussion over creating a transshipment hub in Lebanon has been very involved, the country still needs to convince all around that it does not only talk-the-talk of transportation but is able to walk-the-walk.

The good news is that beyond verbal commotion over the Lebanese possibilities, chances prevail for real motion in the transport sector. In air travel, national carrier MEA has been resuscitated and outlooks for passenger travel in 2004 are among the economy’s most positive indicators. Aware of this potential, new companies are targeting Beirut for charter and corporate aviation business.

The hottest current optimism factor in the shipping industry is Iraq. Although freight forwarding to Lebanon’s former top Middle Eastern trade partner still presents great security concerns due to the activities of insurgents, the second half of 2003 has already shown that the ports of Tripoli and Beirut could increase cargo throughput to Iraq. Here, 2004 could become the first year of a new future for the Lebanese shipping industry and, within realistic regional possibilities, see the country enter a new phase in writing forth its contribution to the very hands-on culture of connecting nations by shipping.

The alternative wouldn’t be pretty. At least for sea transportation, failure to bring Beirut up to transshipment hub function might condemn the ancient trade center to ‘walk the plank’ and fully plunge into shipping marginality.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Tracking fast movers

by Thomas Schellen February 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Beirut Cargo Center

“Freight forwarding is a profitable business in Beirut but there is room for much more,” says Joseph Harb, president of Beirut Cargo Center (BCC), “I always tell my team that we are only at 10% of what is in our reach.” One of no more than 15 forwarders with a strong presence in the market, BCC has dominant positions in providing logistics to shows and exhibitions and in the shipping of household goods. The company started operations in 1993, after Harb decided to leverage his nearly two decades of managerial experience in the Dubai shipping industry, by returning to Beirut and setting up shop. “Our expansion and acquisition of business went very fast,” he says, “each year we created new departments and added 10 to 15 persons to our staff.” Today, BCC employs 130 staff, with separate departments for sea, air, overland freight, customs clearing, warehousing, exhibitions, and packing and moving. Factors that Harb credits as decisive in his company’s success are working according to international standards and implementation of quality systems and services, aided by an emphasis on training and consistent reinvestments of profits. In the area of rate competitiveness – in any segment of shipping equally important to high service quality – Harb brought a relationship with European logistics provider, Schenker, as crucial intangible capital to BCC. A $7.7 billion company by 2003 turnover, Schenker signs worldwide annual contracts with cargo carriers in a magnitude of 1 million TEU. As their local partners, BCC share in Schenker’s global buying power, allowing it to stand strong in rate rivalries. A decade of growth means that BCC is now an established entity in the freight forwarding business here. It also means that the company could be approaching the size limits for an operator in the dimensionally disadvantaged Lebanese market. But staying true to his credo that much more growth is achievable, Harb is now accruing the adrenaline for his most ambitious jump: becoming a regional logistics provider for Schenker and some of their big manufacturing clients. A project for establishing a Beirut distribution center for a growing European consumer electronics company has already been drawn up to substantial detail. Based on a permit to operate in the free zone at Beirut Port, BCC would immediately seek to acquire a warehouse space of up to 1,000 square meters there in order to implement these projects, thus effectively doubling their existing warehouse capacity. In development steps to follow, the company would set up a trucking department of 20 trailers with scheduled daily overland runs to Levant destinations. In the mid-term, Harb expects to expand his free zone warehouse to 10,000 square meters. Internal consolidation of the Lebanese freight forwarding industry through mergers and acquisitions is unlikely, Harb says. In his view it is a more realistic scenario that his international partners, Schenker, would one day decide to establish their own offices in Beirut, as Lebanon gains in the role as a freight forwarding hub. This possibility, however, does not worry the entrepreneur. The international firm would first approach its existing partner, BCC, and this would open new roads for development. “The future is international logistics,” Harb says, “If you have the international, you will also have the local.”

Sealine

With 25 years of presence in the Lebanese market, Sealine and associated Seatrans are shipping agents and ship owners. The firm has found its niche in representing European cargo lines and as operator of a regular container freight service between Italy and the Levant. The company has a share of about 16% of tonnage volume passing through Beirut port and last year realized two thirds of its business as agents for European shipping lines, mainly German Hamburg S‏ûd and Italian Gilnavi. The remainder came from the operations of its own vessels, but this side of the business could increase in 2004 based on a strategic adjustment of operations that the firm implemented in late 2003. If successful, it will be a classic example for a move that turns an emerging problem into an opportunity. “We are directly affected by the euro exchange rate,” said shareholder Samir Noaime, “due to the strong euro, we are facing difficulties with lack of volume.” The appreciation of the European currency over the past two years has forced Lebanese traders to increasingly source their supplies from the Far East and the US, leading to a drop in shipping volumes on the traditional European supply routes. To balance the negative impact of the shifting trade patterns, the Sealine management modified their shipping service from one route – Ravenna to Beirut via Limassol – to two, by switching to Venice as Italian port for the second route and also adding the Syrian port Latakia before sailing on to Beirut. Besides offering more Levant-bound cargo opportunities, the change of strategy also opened greater potential to pick up Europe-bound freight, because Syrian export shipping volumes are far more substantial than the Lebanese. It is too early to assess the results of the new strategy after serving the Syrian port for now two to three months but the firm had encountered no obstacles, Noaime said. “We are well introduced in Syria and I am more than optimistic that Latakia and Tartous will be doing well.”

The operational environment for their activities in Lebanon is today incomparably better than in the 1980s when Sealine served the ports of Beirut, and in often forced diversions, Jounieh. It seems near miraculous how in those days, under the raging Lebanese conflict, shipping companies succeeded in supplying the country with urgently needed supplies. According to Noaime, the war had also been the reason why the company’s ships until today have not been sailing under Lebanese flag. The terse security situation and resultant excessive scrutiny of Lebanese-flagged vessels in European ports had mandated the company to register its vessels outside, in San Vincent and in Cyprus. However, as one vessel owned by the company is due for immediate replacement and the two others are also scheduled for renewal, the next generation of Seatrans ships would be flying the Lebanese colors. “We have a project to develop the fleet. We want to employ younger vessels with a little bit higher capacity” Noaime said, “and I will be proud to have the Lebanese flag.” With a capacity of 225 TEU, the new vessel is by no means a large ship and Sealine sees no difficulty in financing the renewal of their moderate fleet out of own resources, Noaime said. Under the company’s existing route setup, three vessels would suffice, but more could be added if a project for developing new routes to Turkey and Egypt were to succeed. But in the short term, Noaime’s expectations for 2004 are that a repeat performance of 2003 results would be reason enough to be happy.

Aramex

For courier enterprises, their speed and reliability have created huge opportunities in the last quarter of the 20th century. Companies specializing in express shipping of documents and goods experienced a rush in demand for international deliveries that hasn’t ceased growing since. The firm Aramex was founded as a regional response to the international courier business surge. Conceived in 1982, it developed from an auxiliary provider of narrowly defined express services to a full-fledged operator with its own international network. Today it flaunts its services as ‘total transportation solutions.’

In Lebanon, where Aramex has been operating since the late 1980s, the company saw the nature of demand evolve significantly in the past five years. “The weight per shipment has increased noticeably,” said country manager Asma Abboud, “and the content has changed.” Shipments weighing 40 to 50 kilograms are becoming more and more commonplace in the express segment and some customers use the service for sending consignments of 100 and more kilos to destinations within the region. Across the board on its services provided here, the company reached 10 percent growth in 2003. Over more traditional forwarding, Aramex express shipping has advantages in achieving door-to-door delivery in 24 hours or less to Middle Eastern countries. The company expanded into an increasing range of packing and shipping services, and in 2004, it wants to take a shot at developing its transit business here, which to date has been minimal.

In the domestic market, Aramex has embraced specialization. It does not deliver mass mailings and moved out of areas such as media distribution after LibanPost entered the scene. Shipping of bank documents, blood and laboratory samples, delivery of IT products under collection of their invoices, is where Aramex has a strong position. A Shop and Ship niche service facilitating forwarding and clearance for goods purchased abroad via the internet has some 250 subscribers who use it actively. The firm’s customer mix is 90 percent corporate and 10% individual but the individual clients are very important to the bottom line, Abboud said. She attributed a high share and loyalty of banks in the clientele to the fact that Aramex had been able to provide them with consistent service in the years of conflict. In their corporate philosophy, Aramex stress a team approach that affords staffers with opportunities to rise through the ranks. “Being a transparent company gives each of us a chance to grow and learn,” Abboud said, “each team member becomes an entrepreneur.”

On the level of Aramex’ country stations, this translates into a decentralized corporate culture where managers in every market can make decisions and add to the system. As a corporation, Aramex underwent a noteworthy evolution that took it from being a privately owned firm to go public on the Nasdaq and then, by way of delisting, return to private ownership with an investment fund based in Dubai. Each of these steps proved a useful learning experience and spurred the business on, according to Aramex chairman, Fadi Ghandour. On the whole, Amman-based Aramex saw a very successful 2003 and will “close the year with record results in revenues and net income,” Ghandour told Executive. While the Lebanon operation is doing “very well” the company is internationally looking at Africa and Southeast Asia for expansion. “There is no change in our strategy,” he said. “We are doing what we have always done, but we have become more aggressive on acquisitions.”

Executive travel services ExecuJet

At the top of the transportation pyramid reside flight services for corporations and wealthy individuals. Lebanon is a candidate to become an emerging market for this lucrative segment of the transportation industry. One of several contenders for a stronger corporate aviation business in Beirut is ExecuJet Middle East, a Dubai-based company and part of the ExecuJet group with operations in four continents. The firm, which already has a limited customer base of Lebanese clients, has ambitions to grow its business here into a much larger presence. As a first step, the company announced the appointing of a new sales team for the Levant at the end of last year. With this team, the company aims at penetrating the Lebanese and neighboring markets. “The ExecuJet business model is based on providing total aviation solutions,” ExecuJet Middle East managing director, Horm Irani, told Executive. “I believe that the model is very well-suited to improve efficiencies and comprehensively service the wide range of requirements in the Levant region.” The expansion project is still it its early phase and ExecuJet Middle East would yet have to set its timing for opening an office in Beirut or establishing a base of operations here, but it assessed a doubling of business aircraft movements through Beirut over the past six months, as “very encouraging” signs for local market growth. Irani labeled Beirut International Airport a hub for the western part of the Middle East that could play the same role as Dubai has assumed for the gulf region. “It would make commercial and operational sense to base ourselves out of BIA,” he said, “we anticipate no obstacles in growing our business interests there and establishing the offices and operations base we project.” He affirmed that the Lebanese government and aviation authorities have been very “proactive and progressive” in supporting infrastructure investments and legislating the freedom and ease of movement for sector companies.

Based in Switzerland, the ExecuJet Group was founded in 1991 and has been operating in this region since 1999. Besides offering consulting, operations/management and charter services, the Middle East unit is active in sales and financing of corporate aircraft, representing manufacturers Bombardier and Pilatus. A boost in flight services for corporations and high-level individual customers would certainly add to the Lebanese market. Although several providers in the high-end segment are interested in developing their business here, ExecuJet Middle East sees this area as one whose potential has barely been tapped into. From their perspective, awareness of the benefits of corporate travel is increasing, although Beirut as market for the high-end services is still lagging in some areas. “The risk is a little higher when compared to the Gulf and international markets as the market is still far from maturing,” Irani said. “Profitability is also assessed to be lower as customers are very value-conscious and have still not accorded the full premiums on the offerings.”

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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