Lebanon is still a wildcard in the Syrian deck. The Syrians know it and the Lebanese know the Syrians know it, so they will only have themselves to blame if they allow Damascus an entrée back into Beirut because of their inability to get along. Imagine the shame of being ruled—either directly or by remote control—by a regime they so successfully asked to leave in 2005. Oh, how long ago that heady spring now seems. Destabilization in Lebanon will almost certainly give Damascus an opportunity to come in from the cold internationally and cut a deal with the US. It would see Damascus distance itself just enough from Tehran, use its influence to ease tensions in Iraq and rein-in the argumentative Lebanese, who by then will have proved they cannot handle fully-fledged independence. Such a deal would also realign Damascus with the Gulf states, who are investing heavily in Syria.
