Hard power dominates the Middle East. The prospect of military conflict is never too far away and economic sanctions are familiar to many countries in the region. Vali Nasr, professor of International Relations at Tufts University, argues in his new book, Forces of Fortune, that the future of the region will not be shaped by this hard power. It is soft power that will really shape the region, and in particular the continued rise of a middle class.
“It is business with a small “b” that should hold our attention,” writes Nasr. ‘Grow the economy and the rest will sort itself out,’ is the central thesis of the book.
Nasr rightly points out that Islam and capitalism are two ideas which are symbiotic rather than, as many Westerners believe, antagonistic to each other. The Prophet Mohammed was, after all, a merchant. Turkey is the gleaming example illustrated by Nasr, of how an Islamist party (the ruling AKP) has not gone down the route of Iran, but embraced capitalism and economic liberalization.
“Islam [in Turkey] is conservative but pro-European, pro-democracy and above all, pro-capitalist,” he writes. Forces of Fortune is essentially imagining a region that follows the Turkish model of development, and how the United States can support and spread the Turkish model across the region.
In arguing this, Nasr provides a strong case for the futility of sanctions. Nasr argues that instead of sanctions the US should be increasing business ties and free trade with Iran, so that its society pressure the regime to reform.
“What sanctions and isolations are achieving, however, is making it more difficult for commerce to flourish, and the historical force that alone can change the Middle East to start that process in the one country that matters most [Iran],” he writes.
The main point of contention with this book, however, is that it presents an argument that is 10 years out of date. The idea that “the road to human rights, social freedoms and democracy runs through business growth and economic progress” has already been proven false — China, Russia and Gulf Cooperation Countries are just a few that have shown this to be so.
Even Nasr argues that in Dubai “the foreigners do all the work, and make plenty of money…but have few political rights.” Business growth and economic progress can occur quite happily without human rights, social freedoms and democracy.
Further to this, in a region dominated by hard power, the book leaves you with a sense that Nasr puts too much weight on the shoulders of small “b” business. In Lebanon, for instance, Nasr makes the claim that southern Lebanese businessmen leaned on Hezbollah to stay out of the “Israel-Hamas war of 2008-2009.”
This may or may not be true, but Nasr provides no evidence for how he comes to this conclusion, nor does he even suggest that other equally pressing issues may have prevented Hezbollah from joining the conflict.
In other words, Nasr fails to provide a convincing argument as to how economics alone can change the status quo of the region — as opposed to other issues, such as the Arab-Israeli conflict, foreign intervention, the role of petrodollars and internal political and social structures.
This book provides a fluid account of the histories and development of Iran and Turkey, in particular, but is outdated and one dimensional. Forces of Fortune provides little in the way of new information and a weak argument as to why commerce will be the force that transforms the region.
