Can the Economic Upswing out-survive Another Political Crisis?

Can the Economic Upswing out-survive Another Political Crisis? September was one of the most turbulent months in recent years. Not only was the ministry of finance managing the swap of the 2005 Eurobonds, the country also entered into a period of political tension that resulted in an amendment of the constitution and a three year extension of the presidential term. Joey Ghaleb looks at what is at stake for the country. In late August, a mission from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Lebanon as part of its annual Article 4 Consultations and produced probably the most positive report since the early 1990s. The IMF not only estimated 5% real GDP growth (or an 8% nominal growth) but also stated “a significant reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio – the first time since the civil war – is within reach in 2004.” The IMF’s positive outlook, which is based upon an