Yemen’s currency woes do not top global concerns. And yet the wobbling Yemeni rial, having depreciated 13 percent against the dollar since January, could have devastating consequences for the stricken nation, the ripples of which could well wash ashore through the Arabian Gulf and beyond. When oil prices plummeted more than two years ago, Yemen’s single-resource economy took a pounding, as the government had overestimated its income and overspent. The result was a 2009 deficit around 10 percent of GDP: crippling for a country unable to borrow from international financial markets and whose primary means of raising funds is to borrow from its central bank and sell foreign currency reserves. International Monetary Fund policy advice and some aid have reduced the deficit, but the finance ministry predicts it will still be 7.7 percent of GDP in 2010. Further problems have come in the form of a national shortage of dollars.
