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10 Ways to Save LebanonComment

Rewrite Lebanon’s unfair tax laws

by Jad Chaaban March 6, 2014
written by Jad Chaaban

As part of Executive’s ‘10 Ways to Save Lebanon’ issue, we asked leading experts from a range of fields to put the case for one major policy for the country. In this article, economist Jad Chaaban makes the case for rewriting the country’s tax laws.

 

Lebanon’s current tax rules are both deeply unjust and ultimately counterproductive. They are unfair primarily because they rely so heavily on indirect taxation — mostly Valued Added Tax and taxes on consumption. On average, when you buy goods in Lebanon, 18 percent of the cost is tax. These indirect taxes make up 70 percent of the government’s revenue and equate to around 12 percent of gross domestic product.

In contrast, direct taxation — income tax and other levies paid directly by individuals and companies — represent just 6 percent of GDP, compared to 15-20 percent in most western European economies. This is vitally important as indirect taxes are deeply regressive. With VAT and other indirect taxes, the rich pay less as a percentage of their income than the poor. Consider, for example, the country’s phone tariffs — the highest on average in the Middle East. Of the average 15 cents per minute phone call, around 65 percent is indirect taxes. These taxes are exactly the same for a millionaire banker as they are for a local shopkeeper, but will cost the shopkeeper far more as a proportion of their income.

Even the direct tax system is often unfair. While income tax is at least partly progressive (though there is still only a 15 percent top rate), the same can’t be said for company taxes.

As an individual starting your own business, you pay a progressive tax rate ranging from 4 to 21 percent, but as a limited liability company or corporation you pay a flat 15 percent rate. That means that if you are a tailor or a web developer and you set up your own company making $200,000 a year, you pay 21 percent tax. But if you are a bank making $200 million a year, you pay 15 percent. This is deeply unfair.

This is also counterproductive as it is polarizing Lebanese society economically. In 1974, the share of families on middle incomes was around 60 percent. By 2004, this had dropped to 20 percent. The civil war and the ensuing decades have created a system where the richest 20 percent of the population has 50 percent of the wealth, while many more live on or below the poverty line. The middle class has largely disappeared.

Building on broad shoulders

This matters not just for social cohesion but for economic growth — an innovative and hard-working middle class is vitally important for both job creation and democracy. Study after study has shown how important it is for economic development that the population feels invested in the system.

The first priority is the reform of direct taxes to make them both fairer and more numerous. Increasing direct taxation for those in the higher income brackets would generate vital revenue for a government that faces a spiraling public debt and little to no growth in the coming years. Asking the rich to pay more in direct taxes, while keeping taxes low for those with lower incomes, would begin to make our society fairer.

Likewise, we have to start to close the loopholes that allow some of Lebanon’s most powerful businesses to avoid paying their fair share. Hugely profitable companies often use various techniques to pay very little tax, such as registering as a holding company, which allows for taxes as low as 4 percent. Taxes paid by the hugely profitable (but low job creating) real estate sector, for example, constitute just 2 percent of GDP, while real estate transactions constitute 25 percent of GDP. Even a small rebalancing of this would have a major effect on the deficit.

With this extra revenue, indirect taxes could be scaled back over time, making the system fairer for all. We need to provide more support to the poor and ask more from those with the broadest shoulders.

Critics will argue that the state’s deep inefficiency means increasing taxes will just increase corruption. But this attitude exacerbates an already vicious cycle; as the middle class flees and the rich opt out of the system altogether, the state slides ever further toward economic and political collapse.

These reforms would require a strong political consensus, which looks hard to achieve given politicians’ close ties with the wealthiest Lebanese class. In fact, many of those in the new government either have significant economic empires or are allied with them. Yet a stable and thriving Lebanese economy can only be reached with more equity and economic justice, and this has to include a reform of our tax system.

March 6, 2014 3 comments
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Business

‘This is the next industrial revolution’

by Livia Murray March 5, 2014
written by Livia Murray

Mike Butcher is the editor-at-large of TechCrunch, the world’s largest online source for technology and startup news, while he is also invested in numerous educational initiatives in the UK that teach youth how to code. Attending his third ArabNet in Beirut, Executive caught him at the informal startup pitch-off TechCrunch Meetup (co-hosted by Bader Young Entrepreneurs) where he served on the judging panel. Hosted at Coworking +961, eight startups competed for tickets to attend TechCrunch Disrupt NYC.

 

You’ve been coming to ArabNet in Beirut for a couple of years. What is it about the Lebanese startup scene that is making you come back?

Well, I think the enthusiasm, and there’s clearly credible talents coming from this region even under obviously difficult circumstances. There’s an interesting marriage between creativity and design, and technical capability and technical execution. That’s something that’s really Lebanon actually. There’s a long heritage here of media and culture and arts and engineering as well. These are some of the key elements why we’re seeing some really interesting technical products appear from this region.

What developments have you seen in the Lebanese ecosystem in the last couple of years?

Everyone is getting a lot more professional, the pitches are getting better, the presentations are getting slicker. People are obviously watching what’s going on outside in the rest of the world and the way that the technology world is moving and taking queues from that. You can see it everywhere you go.

Based on the startups that you saw tonight and maybe other startups that you’ve talked to in Lebanon, what are some of the strong points across the board?

I think the strong points are slightly out-of-the-box thinking – thinking about things in a different way than you might in another part of the world. I think also there’s some interesting executions of existing ideas which we’re all familiar with such as market places or dating, and then adapting those business models to the region, often in quite a clever way. Those are the kinds of differences we see.

What about ways the entrepreneurship sector can improve?

Things to work on would be the fact that there is a lot of copying, a lot of clones. This is something that you see a lot in emerging markets. But sometimes you can learn some things when you clone something.

Lebanon lacks coders. You support many programs in the UK which teach youth to code, some teaching children as young as 9. What is the advantage of learning how to code at such a young age and would you recommend replicating this in other places?

Absolutely, totally. This is the next industrial revolution and if we don’t get our kids to learn how to program and do computing and design and that kind of thing then they’re going to miss out in the future because all the high value jobs will have to do with technology. So it’s desperately important that governments and society get on board and make education systems understand the importance of technology.

You’ve been involved in the UK startup scene for some time now. Based on your experience, what degree of change can a startup ecosystem have on the economy?

There are a lot of benefits to a startup ecosystem. For every technology job that is created, about four other jobs are created; whether it be in urban regeneration, in manufacturing, in terms of the fact that you create a product and then you have to employ people to make that product, factories employ more people because you have to create more hardware. So there are a lot of uplifts. It’s not just a few guys in the corner coding. There are a lot more benefits.

I’ve seen for myself how whole areas of London have been regenerated because people moved in and started creating technology companies. And that’s led to all sorts of stuff, such as better housing, that didn’t exist before. So there’s a lot of things that can be said for it.

March 5, 2014 0 comments
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10 Ways to Save LebanonComment

A unified strategy for the refugee crisis

by Ninette Kelley March 5, 2014
written by Ninette Kelley

As part of Executive’s ‘10 Ways to Save Lebanon‘ issue, we asked leading experts from a range of fields to put the case for one major policy for the country. In this article, UNHCR Representative in Lebanon Ninette Kelley urges different ministries to work together to develop a unified strategy for Syrian refugees, including making a decision about establishing formal refugee camps.

 

In early June 2011, I visited Wadi Khaled, the small mallet-shaped piece of land that juts out of the northeast corner of Lebanon, bordering Syria on its three sides. It was here that over the course of the preceding three months some 2,000 refugees from Syria had entered.

Most had come from Tal Kalakh — fleeing a swift and firm response to growing unrest which was slowly starting to spread throughout Syria. The refugees had left their battered village, fallen homes and even family members, seeking safety across the nearest border. The majority were staying with Lebanese families in villages throughout Wadi Khaled and in other parts of the northern region of Akkar. When asked when they thought it would be safe to return home, both refugees and hosts were quick to reply that it was just a matter of weeks or at most months.

On that particular day, Naji Ramadan, then mayor of Machta Hamoud, told me of his worry that the water supply in the village could not keep pace with increasing demand. Already shortages were being felt. He asked for the UN to help and we provided water trucking to the village: a temporary solution for what many predicted was a temporary problem.

Worse than predicted

Today the refugee population in Akkar has grown to 94,244, while nationally it has risen from just over 125,000 at the close of 2012, to over 930,000 and is growing by some 12,000 persons every week.  Refugees are spread throughout 1,600 localities in the country — and in many the Syrian population now outnumbers Lebanon’s own.

The frequent refrain is that Lebanon cannot cope. What is astonishing is that it has so far, but the cost has been high. It can be measured in many ways: loss of trade, tourism, consumer confidence and investment, as well as falling wages and the rise in government expenditure, all while the demand on public services and subsidised goods increases. Public services, which were challenged before the crisis, are particularly impacted — as schools struggle to accommodate tens of thousands of refugee children, and primary and secondary health services buckle under the strain of additional demand. Fragile water, sanitation and waste management systems simply cannot cope with the increased pressure the arrival of so many refugees has wrought. Missile strikes, car bombs and suicide bombers within Lebanon have increased in frequency — fraying nerves as the fear of the spread of the Syrian conflict looms near.

Many lament the lack of sufficient international assistance to help Lebanon deal with a crisis not of its making and far out of proportion to its size.  While more international assistance is indeed critical, the government must take steps to attract humanitarian and development aid, and give confidence to donors that the assistance will have the desired impact.

Responding to the crisis

Looking over the considerable achievements in the past three years, as well as the gaps, one can point to three important areas which will need to be focused on to help Lebanon cope with the crisis.

Firstly, Lebanon cannot be expected to carry the cost of meeting the enormous humanitarian needs of refugees from Syria.  Most flee after having been displaced more than once within Syria.  They arrive having endured great deprivation for sustained periods of time, with few personal belongings and having suffered enormous personal losses.  Last year the international community donated over $881 million for the humanitarian response in Lebanon, including funds to help meet the most urgent needs of refugees (food, shelter, health, protection and services for women, children and the disabled), as well as backing to Lebanese institutions at the front line of the crisis and support to hosting communities (wells, water, sanitation and waste management facilities, community centres, etc).  This year they have been asked to do the same and more. This support is crucial — the lives of refugees depend on it and Lebanon cannot manage without it.

Secondly, now that a government has been formed, Lebanon must decide how best to manage the current crisis in the near and immediate future.  In 2012, the Prime Minister set up an inter-ministerial committee, with the Minister of Social Affairs as the coordinator.  Yet for most of last year, when over 700,000 refugees fled to Lebanon, different ministries for the most part coped relatively autonomously — as the political differences that pulled the government apart in April 2013 made coordinated action between them impossible.

And while individual ministries were critical in managing the situation, crucial policy issues, which required a coordinated government response, were left undecided. Determining an appropriate mix of shelter options, including modest but more formal settlements, is becoming more and more urgent.  Planning across ministries in case of a greater influx or internal displacement is very much needed. Improving border processes, and provision and renewal of residency coupons is key to ensuring the government is able to know who is in the country and who is returning. An empowered administrative structure to coordinate across ministries, with the international community alongside it, would improve the response, mitigate the negative impact and engender more confidence in donors.

Finally, as the World Bank assessment last year made clear, the large and growing negative impact of the Syria crisis on Lebanon needs to be promptly addressed, and this goes far beyond what can be expected from humanitarian funds.  The subsequent Lebanese government’s ‘Roadmap of Priority Interventions,’ which built on the findings of the assessment, deserves to be supported.  With its combination of immediate, medium and longer-term measures, the Roadmap provides a critical starting point for developing and supporting the interventions that Lebanon so badly needs.

March 5, 2014 0 comments
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10 Ways to Save LebanonComment

Plan an oil and gas sovereign wealth fund

by Sami Atallah March 5, 2014
written by Sami Atallah

As part of Executive’s ‘10 Ways to Save Lebanon‘ issue, we asked leading experts from a range of fields to put the case for one major policy for the country. In this article, Sami Atallah from the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies discusses ways to protect the country’s offshore oil and gas wealth.

 

In the coming years, Lebanon could begin to reap the benefits of its offshore oil and gas reserves. These resources could be worth tens of billions of dollars in a country where annual gross domestic product is little more than $40 billion.

This new source of wealth has the potential to completely transform the country’s economy and society. But the dangers are also clear; almost every society that discovers resources ends up less competitive in other key sectors of the economy — the so-called ‘resource curse.’ Whether Lebanon can avoid this or not depends on how it manages sustainable development.

One absolutely key decision will be how the oil money will eventually be spent. Article 3 of the 2010 offshore petroleum resources law stipulates that the net proceeds of oil and gas will be deposited in a sovereign wealth fund (SWF). The law, however, stops short of dictating how the fund will be run, instead saying it would be governed by a “specific law” which will be passed later. This article alone, one of 77 in the 2010 law, dominated the debate in Parliament when the law was voted on. This is hardly a surprise — Lebanese politicians have a habit of focusing on where the cash will go.

This fund is key to Lebanon’s development. How well it is managed will depend on the institutional arrangement that the government puts in place to govern it. It must be said that Lebanon’s record in managing funds is pretty dismal. Take, for instance, the Fund for the Displaced, which has recently been marred with corruption charges, or the Council of the South, which is supposed to help develop one of the country’s poorest regions, yet the money often seems to evaporate before reaching its target.

There is one example of a country avoiding the resource curse: Norway. This was because of the country’s exemplary and powerful SWF — a product of a long and ongoing process of reform. With an eye on sustainable growth, Norwegian governments have given the fund significant independence, while also keeping it modern. It has gone through three major reforms and experimentations to become the leading SWF in the world.

Clear principles

To learn the lessons of the Norwegians and get the best deal for all, Lebanon’s sovereign wealth fund must adhere to four basic principles:

1. It must adopt clearly specified objectives and investment strategies. This provides the mandate of the fund in terms of what it should be investing in, such as bonds, stocks, or real estate in local or international markets.

2. It must abide by clear fiscal rules to access the funds. A fundamental issue that ought to be addressed is the conditions under which the government can use the earnings of the fund. Without having clearly specified criteria, politicians will be tempted to resort to the fund to finance their personal or electoral needs.

3. It needs a proper governance structure that clearly identifies the role of the government, the governing bodies and the managers of the SWF. It must state the role of the managers in making investment decisions.

4. The fund must be transparent and accountable to the public. It must show how it conducts its investment strategy i.e. what its investment categories are and how it decides where to invest. It must also regularly post the size of the fund, its rate of return, location of investment and its currency composition. It must regularly publish status reports and independent audits.

These conditions are necessary but not sufficient. For the fund to be effectively managed it must be properly integrated into the public finance, otherwise even a well-managed fund will be undermined by a weak budgetary system. Politicians will use it to further mismanage the budget and avoid necessary reforms, and the SWF could even end up as a second or a parallel budget that the government could implicitly borrow against. This would lead the country straight to the resource curse.

Lebanon’s record in managing its public finance is poor. Not only has there been no budget since 2005, the weak budgetary institutions, which include multiple budgets, inadequate auditing and lack of transparency, undermine the prospects of properly managing the fund. Without these conditions in place, Lebanese citizens will not reap the benefits of the resource.

Many Lebanese politicians are pretending that the country’s oil and gas will solve the country’s problems but that is far from certain. In fact, if badly run, it could make corruption worse. If we want to avoid the resource curse, we need to start reforming the fiscal institutions now, to ensure that the SWF will serve sustainable development.

March 5, 2014 0 comments
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Business

Dubai hotels boast double-digit 2013 growth

by Thomas Schellen March 4, 2014
written by Thomas Schellen

Dubai, the commercial hub of the United Arab Emirates, has reported a 11 percent increase in hotel guests to 11 million persons, according to a March 4 report by the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (DTCM). In 2012, the number of guests across all hotel categories stopped just short of the 10-million bar, at 9.96 million.

The emirate has, in fact, hopped across two memorable achievement markers in one year – thanks to an 11 percent spike in the number of guest nights. With an average length of stay of 3.8 nights per guest, the total count of guest nights grew to 41.6 million. Due to higher average room prices at both hotels (+7 percent) and hotel apartments (+4 percent), hotel operators reaped $5.95 billion (AED 21.8 billion) in revenues, an impressive 16 percent increase from $5.1 billion in 2012.

Lebanese guests contributed to the increase with 112,000 visitors, up 12 percent from the previous year.

dubaihotelguests

The top source country for Dubai visitors and the biggest gainer in absolute numbers was Saudi Arabia, with 1.35 million citizens booking Dubai accommodations in 2013. That was up 20 percent from 1.12 million in 2012.

The emirate’s hotel operators recorded their biggest increase in percentage terms for Australians. The number of travelers from Down Under leapt 39 percent to 269,000, something which the DTCM attributed directly to a new partnership with Qantas that started on April 1, 2013.

Greater visitor inflows from China (up by 11 percent) were described in a DTCM statement to have come “partly as a result of the targeted marketing activities in China” by the organization. However, the release also noted that Chinese tourists generally have a growing appetite for international travel.

Besides Saudi Arabia, the top five countries from which Dubai’s tourists originated were India, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Russia. Between them, these five countries were home to more than 35 percent of Dubai’s hotel guests in 2013.

Only one country among the top 20 source countries of Dubai visitors was shown as having negative growth in 2013, and this was Iran – with a 14 percent drop to 278,000. DTCM volunteered no suggestion as to the reason.

dubaihotelguestsfigures

While the number of hotel rooms and short-least hotel apartments increased 5.1 percent to 84,500, occupancy rates improved to above 80 percent in both categories, suggesting that Dubai hospitality operators could flash hefty smiles for the second year in a row when tallying their growth in revenues, and presumably profits. According to data in the DTCM statistics the hotel sector’s revenues increased by almost 38 percent from 2011 to 2013.

In the opinion of DTCM, Dubai hotel operators have every reason to look optimistically into the future even as another 29,000 plus rooms are in the pipeline for 2014 to 2016. This is because the emirate has a target to welcome 20 million annual guests by 2020.

“In order to provide accommodation for our targeted visitor numbers for 2020, we estimate we need a total of between 140,000 to 160,000 rooms and will work closely with the investment industry to make this happen,” said DTCM Director General Helal Saeed Almarri. Dubai is actively pursuing investments into its hotel industry and has created incentives for developers of mid-range hotels.

March 4, 2014 0 comments
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The Buzz

Beirut traffic: The prisoner’s dilemma in action

by Joe Dyke March 4, 2014
written by Joe Dyke

The prisoner’s dilemma is a classic game theory example that is used to show how logical individual actions can be deeply illogical for a group and/or society as a whole. In it, two members of a criminal gang are arrested and held in separate rooms, with no information about the other. The cops have limited information, so if neither talks they will get only a lesser charge and serve a one year sentence — the best result for all.

Yet, the theory holds, they will both reason individually, rather than collectively, and therefore will betray the other — with both subsequently going to prison for two years each. This is because both know that if the other betrays them and they remain silent, they alone will serve a three year sentence and the other will walk free.

Now apply this to Lebanon. Lebanese people have long been aware of the country’s terrible traffic problems, with hours of gridlock the norm. But a new video published last week illustrates how it can be a case of logical individual choices creating collective carnage.

In the video (shown below) dozens of cars arrive at an intersection at the same time. Each pursues the logical individual choice — to try and sneak through and get to their destination quickly. The result is collective gridlock.

In an email with Executive, the publisher Moophz Himself — who preferred not to give his real name — said the film was made at an intersection in the Bauchrieh suburb in northern Beirut.

He said he chose to publish it to make a point about Lebanese society. “The video is a slight projection for our society in terms of selfishness and short term intelligence. The majority of drivers are not aware that waiting in line helps them reach destinations with less pain — resulting bottlenecks, noise pollution and mental health injuries.”

March 4, 2014 2 comments
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Business

ArabNet Beirut 2014: Five things to look out for

by Livia Murray March 4, 2014
written by Livia Murray

As ArabNet kicks off it’s fifth conference in Beirut today, we assess the agenda which offers events for a wide variety of online business geeks. Here are our top trends to watch out for this year.

 

Online advertising: Does it work? Or do companies spend too much money on advertising online? Chahe Yervenian, CEO of real estate company Sayfco Holding, will be discussing the company’s experience in advertising on Facebook. Having the largest Facebook presence among Middle Eastern real estate companies, you’ve probably seen Sayfco’s ads sandwiched between posts. Yervenian will be discussing the resources they put into online advertising versus the sales they get from it. Catch his talk after lunch on Wednesday.

If you are still hungry for more in the online advertising department drop by the twin panels on The State of Growth of Digital Advertising, by global market research company Ipsos and online advertising monitoring company OOX. Catch them on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, respectively.

 

De-bunking Circular 331: Marianne Hoayek, head of executive office at Banque du Liban (Lebanon’s central bank), will be taking questions mid-day on Wednesday on the central bank’s $400 million stimulus to increase investments in the knowledge economy. Hoayek will hopefully shed some light on some of the issues revolving around the circular, particularly addressing the concern that Lebanon does not have enough deal flow to effectively utilize the amount of money being pumped into the ecosystem. (See our coverage on the issue here.)

 

[media-credit name=”Greg Demarque” align=”alignnone” width=”560″]omar[/media-credit]

Founder Omar Christidis launched the event on March 4, read our interview with him.

 

New ways to pay: Two panels on the last day of the event will discuss emerging methods for alternative payments and alternative commerce platforms. These new innovative business models will be discussed by panels of companies on the younger side. The first on alternative payment methods will feature mobile payments methods, PinPay and Bitcoin, and the second on e-commerce will bring together up-and-coming fashion, luxury and gift e-commerce sites to talk about their experiences.

 

Speed networking and creative combat: Both have one thing in common: intensity. After lunch on day two of the event, speed networking gives participants an opportunity to connect and grow their contacts in a structured networking activity. Participants sit in two rows facing each other, and the rows shift every three minutes. And voila: 20 new connections in the space of an hour.

Creative combat is a competition that aims to highlight young talent in regional advertising, communication and media. Teams of two-to-three members had a week to come up with a plan for effective digital marketing, and they will pitch it to a panel of judges who will stand on stage and give them direct feedback. The panel includes judges from Exotica, Silkor and Patchi. The competition is the last event before the closing awards ceremony.

 

Web design and development: Catering to the geek in all of us, the first day of the conference will be dedicated to workshops on web design and development. Topics include Typography in Web & Mobile, Developing for Windows, and Publishing and Monetizing Android apps on Nokia. Techies, don’t miss the chance to sharpen your skills.

 

Stay tuned for Executive’s coverage of the event and in the meantime check out our interview with ArabNet’s founder Omar Christidis here. Also take a look at the agenda of the event and let us know what you are most excited about in the comments below.

March 4, 2014 1 comment
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Leaders

Lebanon’s new government: Get to work, gents (and lady)

by Executive Editors March 4, 2014
written by Executive Editors

Having spent the best part of a year trying to form a government, when the new Prime Minister Tammam Salam visited President Michel Sleiman in his Baabda Palace to announce the new Cabinet, he may have been feeling more pressure than excitement.

The challenges facing the country are greater than at any time since the civil war ended in 1990. Since the start of the year, there has been a string of suicide bombings, killing dozens and injuring hundreds. Economically, the country is stagnating — with scores of young people desperately seeking a route out. If Salam is to defuse the crisis, he will need a strong Cabinet around him with a clear plan.

The initial signs are not wholly positive. Shortly after the Cabinet was announced, it became clear that many of them had not been selected purely on merit. Ali Hassan Khalil, the new finance minister, admitted in public that he knows very little about finance, while he speaks far from perfect English and French — a major stumbling block when presenting the country internationally.

Elsewhere, Ashraf Rifi and Nouhad Machnouk’s appointments to justice and interior ministries respectively raised more than a few eyebrows — both are seen in some quarters to be partial in ongoing clashes in Tripoli and elsewhere. Whether they can be fair brokers, taking on armed militants on both sides for the sake of the country’s security, is yet to be seen.

There were also gifted people being seemingly misused. For example, new agriculture minister Akram Chehayeb seemed much more suited to the role of environment minister — he was previously chairman of the Parliament’s Environment Committee — than Mohammed Machnouk, whose background is more in cultural activities. And while Gebran Bassil has many talents, charming people and making friends (a prerequisite for any successful foreign minister) are not among them.

Perhaps the most obvious omission was the least surprising one — the lack of female representation. Just one of the 24 new ministers is a woman. Indeed those cruel enough to joke suggested that her isolation was such that Alice Shebtini’s title should really have been Minister for the Misplaced, rather than Displaced.

More fundamental doubts about the government’s mandate abound. In theory their term could be up as early as the end of May, when they will select a new president. If this proves to be the case, then they will have little time to implement meaningful changes.

But while there may be something of a collective sense of ambivalence towards the Cabinet, this is no time for indifference.

What we present we will be presenting over the coming days online are a wide series of reforms — from short-term responses to the security situation to a fundamental restructuring of the institutions of the state to better represent the country’s wishes. In each field we have asked leading experts to put forward the case for change.

No longer can the government fail to grapple with the Syrian refugee crisis, with rival ministries implementing contradictory policies.  No longer can the political classes allow the security situation to slide out of control. And no longer can the country continue with an unfair tax system or allow our politics to remain dominated by outside interests.

If implemented, these changes would make a major difference to the country, both stabilizing the situation and giving people a say in their society again. Many of them are not rocket science — this magazine has advocated for some of these policies since its inception in 1999 — but they require a political resolve to change Lebanon’s bankrupt system once and for all.

So far we have seen little sign that this government will be made of stronger stuff than its predecessors, but we call on those newly empowered to stand up for their compatriots, and take the right steps for the country.

Lebanon can no longer muddle through, for as it lunges from crisis to crisis it slides ever further towards a return to civil war. This government has a rare chance to take major steps to defuse this crisis. For the future of all Lebanese, it is time for them to get to work.

March 4, 2014 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Further oil and gas delays ‘likely’

by Thomas Schellen March 3, 2014
written by Thomas Schellen

Despite the appointment of a new government last month, Citi Group’s research unit has commented cautiously on Lebanon’s outlook for oil and gas exploration. “Despite the formation of a government, we believe the prospects for the implementation of an oil and gas strategy remain low,” the group said in its latest Middle East Macro Monthly report published on Friday.

While the researchers emphasized that they see domestic oil and gas exploitation as a potential game-changer that could “spur a major transformation in the country’s economic fortunes,” they were skeptical that the already thrice delayed tendering process for offshore exploration blocks would progress in the current political climate. “We believe it is likely to be delayed yet again,” the researchers wrote.

The researchers also said there was likely to be “great continuity” under the new government as the energy ministry had remained in the hands of Michel Aoun’s Change and Reform Bloc – with Arthur Nazarian replacing Gebran Bassil. They added that Bassil, now the foreign minister, would still retain “some responsibilities within the energy ministry.”

Despite noting this stable hold of authority in the energy ministry, the report shows no optimism on the potential for progress in the oil and gas tenders or for economic policy progress in general. It argues that the cabinet of new prime minister Tammam Salam is an “interim government in all but name” and would be preoccupied with two main tasks: first, keeping the country out of greater sectarian strife and second, management of the presidential succession and parliamentary elections. As such there is unlikely to be major steps forward in the oil and gas sector.

March 3, 2014 0 comments
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Leaders

Entrepreneurship: Beware a bubble

by Executive Editors March 3, 2014
written by Executive Editors

Last August, after much speculation Banque du Liban – Lebanon’s central bank – released Circular 331. The $400 million plan aimed at encouraging the country’s start-up sector by guaranteeing 75 percent of commercial banks’ investments in fledgling companies. The long-term aim was to boost Lebanon’s ‘knowledge economy’.

Many in the startup world greeted it with enthusiasm as a move that could potentially revolutionize the ecosystem, but others were more skeptical of how banks would go about investing in startups.

In recent months, as the mechanisms have become clearer, banks have begun to make deals with venture capital firms that will invest the money into startups on their behalf. Several funds already have money pledged from banks and are waiting to invest (see full article).

While documents structuring the funds are still waiting for approval from the central bank, Lebanese startups are faced with a lot more money than ever before. Yet a large injection of capital is not necessarily the best thing for the ecosystem.

As Executive reported in November, potential investors were already concerned about a weak deal flow: not enough exciting startups worthy of investment. The increase in available finance has done nothing to change this. If the increase in capital is not paired with a concomitant increase in the number of investment opportunities, there will be too much money chasing too few deals.

This could create an inflationary pressure on valuations, with companies able to play different funds against each other. This would in the short run be good for Lebanese entrepreneurs to a certain extent; many have complained of low valuations and having to relinquish large equity stakes for relatively little money. With more bargaining power, they can fight to retain more ownership over their companies.

But too much inflationary pressure could also create a bubble, which could lead to riskier investments. Funds with plenty of capital but few enticing companies to invest in could end up paying inflated prices or making bad deals. Inflated valuations could also lead to the funds not deploying their money.

While many in the entrepreneurship sector admit the possibility of a bubble down the road, they do not seem overly concerned. Venture capital funds already have a number of companies earmarked for investment, and each seems confident they will deploy all of their share of the $400 million and beat the market.

It is important that this confidence does not turn into complacence. The issue of Lebanon’s weak deal flow must be addressed and some venture capital firms are already making efforts to boost the pipeline. These efforts should be given the utmost priority, no matter how comfortable the funds feel with their potential investments. Lebanon needs a dramatic and timely increase in startups over the next couple of years for the central bank’s incentive to have the desired impact on the ecosystem.

Circular 331 is a great opportunity for Lebanon’s startup ecosystem, but it is equally important that the right measures are taken to prevent a bubble.

March 3, 2014 1 comment
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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