Executive Magazine

Corporate responsibility is everyone’s duty

by Executive Editors February 5, 2014

written by Executive Editors

It is not easy these days to find companies that are expanding in Lebanon. Uncertainty rules the economic climate and the only thing safely said about this year’s business prospects is that there are so many variables that macroeconomic forecasts are even shakier than in ‘normal’ times. But there are corporate examples for optimism — even if some can be described as hoping against probability. There also are companies that tell Executive of investments and expansions that will mean the creation of new jobs in areas such as hospitality and trade.

One company to talk new business last month was Beirut Waterfront Development, which is set to open the Beirut Yacht Club this spring (see story). Another was Spinneys, the retail chain that has more stores and new concepts in the pipeline for Lebanon (see story and interview). The two represent very different corporate narratives. With the Yacht Club, Waterfront Development is invested in a segment of the real estate and hospitality market where exclusivity is the aim and targeted profit margins in the sale of a few super-pricy apartments are a function of scarcity. Spinneys is a mass retailer of fast-moving consumer goods whose daily bread is beating the competition on price and whose mantra is winning on razor-thin margins.

But besides professing corporate optimism, both have another factor in common: they have been targets of huge criticism. Waterfront Development was accused by one media outlet of building a “boardwalk of corruption” in the St. Georges Bay — arguing that the company was part of a scheme to abuse public property for private gain. In 2012 activists attacked the Spinneys chief executive as ‘CEO against freedoms’, with allegations over their working conditions.

Media and activists are important parts of society and as Lebanon matures toward a more open and inclusive society their contributions are important. Similarly, criticism and exposure of corporate ills are an essential feature of their watchdog functions. And when it comes to Lebanon’s huge need for more social equity, the protection of the country from disgraceful private use of public property and the preservation of labor rights are absolute priorities.
However, the virtues of standing up for the little guy and for the public good must preserve the dignity of these causes. The responsibility to present facts and argue with fairness is incumbent not only on news media but also on activists. Even the simplest examination of the accusations against Spinneys and Waterfront Development showed that the companies were often not given a fair hearing. Most significantly, the attacks against both companies were pushed forward not only by media and activists but also by leading Lebanese politicians, while a politician was also the main target in the attack on Waterfront Development.

The entanglement of political figures points to a major dilemma as the Lebanese wait for a new government to help find a solution to our macroeconomic trough. The dilemma is that the Lebanese need their politicians to be active but that the political class is perceived, often with good reason, as producing more problems than solutions.

Politicians should speak out against abuse of public properties and scrutinize economic actors for treating their employees fairly. But if politicians single out one and keep silent about all the others, they raise suspicion that their motives are not pure. And by damaging companies that otherwise would grow, it loads another straw onto the back of this heavily burdened camel that is the Lebanese economy.

February 5, 2014 0 comments

Comment

A foul reminder

by Yasser Akkaoui February 5, 2014

written by Yasser Akkaoui

The Lebanese civil war of 1975 to 1990 did more than destroy the country — it made it impossible to put it back together again. Institutions were demolished, corruption was normalized and, most importantly, a generation of militiamen rose to power who cared little about unity.

The founding fathers of Lebanon — those brave men (for they were sadly all men) who formed the country on the basis of independence, tolerance and moderation — were sidelined, never to return.

In their place the very same militiamen who fought each other for over a decade swapped the sword for the suit and learned to call each other statesmen. But clothes do not make the man and the majority of them have not changed one bit. They claim their share of the pie and keep their foreign masters happy but do nothing to help the country develop independently.
Since 2005, Hezbollah has become the latest party to be transformed from militia to pseudo-statesman, with the 2008 Doha Accords effectively offering them a seat at the top table. And in the past year we have seen a new player on the ground — the Salafis and Al-Qaeda affiliates — pushing for influence. They may be easy to dismiss but make no mistake; they are a rising force and are looking for their share. It is clear that any global agreement over Syria, which will impact Lebanon, will include them.

For those moderates that survived the civil war, it has been a cold winter as the rule of the gun has taken hold. We have been isolated and ignored; condemned as traitors for refusing to pledge allegiance to one foreign power or another.

But we may be seeing the first signs of spring. Prominent businessman Farid Chehab and others have launched the Blue Gold project, which aims to claim the country’s vast and deeply politicized water resources for the Lebanese people. In the process they aim to nurture a strong, independent civil society that puts the country first.

Their plans are grand, utopian some might say, and they are certainly flawed. But they are laudable. Civil society has to demand the impossible, if only to force action from the political class.

The rule of the gun never lasts. One day we will get our country back, and when we do we need a strong civil society to help us move forward.

February 5, 2014 0 comments

Economics & Policy

What does $3 billion buy these days?

by Joe Dyke February 5, 2014

written by Joe Dyke

Lebanon’s president could barely contain his joy. Speaking only a few days after Christmas, Michel Sleiman announced a late present to the Lebanese in a year that had brought little to celebrate. Speaking live on the major television networks Sleiman announced that Saudi Arabia had agreed to invest in the Lebanese army to the tune of $3 billion, a grant that he said would enable the military to “strengthen its capabilities” and “confront terrorists.” Coming only two days after the killing of a pro-Saudi former minister, the president’s message seemed fairly pointed.

The grant could undoubtedly have a major effect on the capacity of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). $3 billion, spread over five years, would be a major boost to Lebanon’s defense budget, which the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in 2012 estimated at $1.7 billion annually. If invested wisely, the fighting capacity of the military could greatly improve, as could its ability to control its borders.

Editorial: Saudi grant to Lebanon deserves cautious welcome

The investment is certainly needed. Currently, despite having over 60,000 soldiers, the LAF has only a token air force, relies heavily on Russian-made tanks from the 1960s and has a minimal navy. New hardware could enable the LAF to carry out its duties far more efficiently. Elias Ferhat, a former Lebanese general, cites the case of the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian camp in 2007 — when the Lebanese army took three and a half months to crush an insurgency led by Islamist groups. “Had the Lebanese had any fixed wings [planes or drones] it could have ended it in 15 days or fewer,” he said.

Yet those expecting this to be a game-changing moment which will allow the Lebanese army to justify disarming Hezbollah and even provide a military counterweight to Israel may be disappointed. Closer inspection of the deal indicates that while the benefits may be significant for the army’s capacity to control security internally, it is doubtful whether it will have a major effect on relations with Israel or Hezbollah.
Regional deal

Part of the reason the deal’s impact is unclear is that while the proclamations were bold, the details remain murky. As this magazine went to print, there had been no official confirmation of the $3 billion from either the Lebanese government, the Ministry of Defense or the LAF. Beyond the president’s statement, there are as yet no further details of where the money will go. “All we have so far is the declaration from the Saudi government and an acceptance from the Lebanese president,” said Farhat, cautioning that Saudi has a long history of promising money, “but when it comes to execution they do nothing. So it is too early to know how big [the effect will be].”

In fact, closer inspection of the deal suggests that it may have more to do with relations between Saudi Arabia and France than a sudden desire to support Lebanon’s military. At a regional level, as the United States has moved closer to rapprochement with Iran, Saudi Arabia — for many years America’s closest Arab ally — has appeared increasingly snubbed. In November, Riyadh surprised the world by turning down a seat on the United Nations Security Council after months of lobbying for it, a U-turn widely interpreted as a message to the US.

As relations with Washington have soured, leaders in Riyadh have been looking for new allies, with the French appearing to be the favored choice. They may well be voting with their wallets, with the two countries believed to be on the cusp of confirming a $1.4 billion deal to overhaul the Saudi navy — specifically the French-built F-2000 frigates.

The deal struck between Riyadh and Beirut is in fact a triangular one. Lebanon will not be allowed to invest the $3 billion however it sees fit, but will have to buy French goods and get training from France. This, said Aram Nerguizian — a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies and an expert on the LAF — indicates that the deal is as much about Paris as Beirut. “The deal benefits the French [weapons] industry first and foremost. No funding will be transferred directly to Lebanon and the mechanisms by which orders, payments and deliveries will play out are likely to be triangular and complicated by domestic constraints and pressures in all three countries concerned. Minimizing these pressures is incumbent upon effective trilateral engagement, not unlike recent LAF meetings in Paris and Riyadh.”

Indeed Nerguizian believes the Lebanese Armed Forces had only partial awareness of the deal before it was announced. “The LAF was consulted by the Lebanese president on its military development objectives and the Capabilities Development Plan, but they were not aware of any plan by Saudi Arabia to finance the sale of French systems, sustainment and training to the Lebanese,” he said.

What to buy

The debate around what the military should buy, therefore, is somewhat muddied as it is not yet clear by what mechanism the weapons will be selected. Will the LAF be able to prioritize areas where it feels it needs development or will the French dictate what they wish to sell?

Even if the LAF is in control, there are likely to be internal disputes over where the money should be allocated. Nerguizian points out that French naval expertise are among the world’s best and that Lebanon should seek to benefit from this. “This is not only a focus on acquiring ships. It is a bottom up effort to reshape an atrophied force of some 2,400 into a proper navy able to conduct patrol and interdiction in Lebanese territorial and economic waters. This would include dry docks, floating dry dock, ship-to-shore communications and other systems to supplement the sale of ship systems able to operate in difficult weather conditions.” Former general Ferhat, however, thinks the navy is less of a priority. “We need an air force because we don’t have a real one in Lebanon. We need also main battle tanks as our tanks are Syrian Russian-made tanks from the 60s,” he said. “These should be our priorities.”

Another potential tension may be over the percentage of the money spent on new goods. The Oxford Companion to American Military History points out that on average the cost of maintaining hardware over its lifetime is more than the initial cost of buying it.

It is as yet unclear what percentage of the $3 billion will be spent on new items and what will be allocated to maintain them. To give French industry the most short-term benefit, the focus would be on new items, but this could leave the LAF unable to foot the bill. “The maintenance of these weapons will cost hundreds of millions of dollars a year and the Lebanese budget cannot afford this,” Ferhat said. “We have a choice — can we acquire these weapons and maintain them or will they stay in a hangar for 12-15 years and then sold to countries such as Pakistan as they can afford to maintain them?”

Nerguizian believes the Lebanese army will push for finances to be allocated towards long-term acquisition. “The LAF is not looking to acquire $3 billion-worth of systems it cannot sustain… The LAF is operating under the premise that, if the $3 billion does in fact materialize, at least part of it must and will focus on sustainment.”

The need for clarity

One final element stressed by much of the media in understanding this deal is Saudi Arabia’s desire to influence Lebanese politics by weakening Hezbollah, which is the closest regional ally of Riyadh’s rival Iran. But again, the effect may be more modest than some have predicted.

If the purpose of the grant was to develop the LAF so that Hezbollah would no longer need to be armed, then it appears more than $3 billion is needed. Adnan Mansour, the caretaker foreign minister who is close to Hezbollah, dismissed the donation as “not enough to bolster Lebanon’s defense system,” pointing to the $17 billion Israeli annual defense budget. The extent of Hezbollah’s financial support from Iran and other donors is not known, but the Washington Institute for Near East Policy estimated it could be up to $200 million a year. Similarly the party has a huge network of voluntary donors, who pledge support to the party. While their total budget is significantly less than the LAF’s budget, Hezbollah has fewer responsibilities — with ‘resistance’ to Israel still its top priority. In this the party’s expert use of guerilla warfare has made it more capable of challenging Israeli aggression than traditional Middle Eastern militaries. “The Army is currently not able to be strong without [Hezbollah] at its side,” Mansour added.

Nerguizian agrees that the triangular nature of the deal makes it unlikely to be a direct challenge to Hezbollah. “$3 billion to France which will then sell as yet uncertain aid to the LAF will not lead to an LAF-Hezbollah confrontation, nor will it lead to the kinds of government formation that will seek to exclude the Shi’a and Hezbollah.”

What remains are more questions than answers. While the money from Saudi could have a transformative effect on the capacity of Lebanon’s armed forces, whether it actually will or not is unclear. The sooner more details are released, the better.

February 5, 2014 0 comments

Economics & Policy

Can Bassil go it alone?

by Jeremy Arbid February 5, 2014

written by Jeremy Arbid

On January 8, caretaker Minister of Energy and Water Gebran Bassil again delayed the first licensing round for offshore oil and gas exploration — perhaps the biggest hope for Lebanon’s static economy. The reason was the same as the two previous times it had been delayed since September — two decrees need to be signed to allow the round to move forward. Political infighting has prevented the cabinet meeting to do so, thus Bassil has been forced to keep pushing back the bid.

But while this was old ground, this time there was a twist. Setting a new date of April 10, Bassil was adamant that “the [new] deadline is a final one.” He did not specify exactly what he meant by this, but this ambiguity has led some to interpret that if a cabinet has not been formed by April the minister will attempt to push through a move without the necessary decrees.

How far he could get without full cabinet approval is unclear. He certainly could not finalize any deal, as Lebanon’s 2010 Offshore Petroleum Law explicitly declares that any final agreement must be passed by decree. This procedure is supported by Article 89 in the Lebanese constitution which states: “No contract or concession for the exploitation of the natural resources of the country… may be granted except by virtue of a law and for a limited period.” Carole Nakhle, an energy economist at the Surrey Energy Economics Centre, explained, “the Offshore Petroleum [Resources] Law plainly states that the decrees should be approved by the Council of Ministers.”

What Bassil could do, however, is start to negotiate with companies on the basis of the model Exploration and Production Agreement (EPA). One of the two pending decrees declares the terms for the final EPA — the agreement between oil and gas companies and the government. But while the terms are not finalized, Bassil can begin negotiations working on the assumption that the model will form the basis for the final EPA.

An industry source, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said, “You can actually move along, and indeed it is common in resource-rich countries for terms to be agreed before formal regulations are passed approving these terms.” But, he stressed, companies will be reticent unless they are given assurances “that these are the final terms and that there won’t be a complete redraft.”

Dangerous precedent

Experts warn that moving forward without the decrees and the cabinet’s blessing is a precarious move. Oil companies are aware of the risk of investing in Lebanon’s offshore gas. However, as Mona Sukkarieh — co-founder of Middle East Strategic Perspectives, a Beirut-based political risk consultancy specializing in oil and gas — explained, “companies don’t like to operate on shaky legal grounds if their rights and licenses run the risk of being questioned at a later stage.”

These repeated delays continue to frustrate participating companies, particularly the largest companies in the bid, many of whom had only a skeleton presence at the Lebanon International Oil and Gas Summit in December.

However, these companies have experience operating in unstable political environments and have calculated Lebanon’s country risk into their strategic plans. A company’s decision to participate in a licensing round “is a strategic decision that is not reconsidered if a tender is temporarily delayed. Of course, this does not mean that the Lebanese government should keep testing their patience,” Sukkarieh explained.

The need for speed

In many ways Bassil is correct in demanding a final deadline — time is a factor for at least two reasons. In the face of political negotiations, the projected year in which Lebanon is supposed to become a gas producer, 2020, will surely be pushed back. By the next decade new sources of gas will be available in the global market. Israel has already started gas production and rumors of a proposed pipeline to Jordan are circulating. Globally, the United States, Australia, India, Canada and Indonesia are set for big increases in gas production, while regionally both Iran and Qatar are due to expand their output rapidly.

AT Kearney, a global management consulting firm, is forecasting that over the next decade, the surplus of supply will cause gas prices to fall. One of their primary indicators is gas import infrastructure, which is undergoing rapid expansion for both pipeline and liquefied natural gas, with much of this growth occurring in the Middle East. The World Bank expects prices in Europe and Asia to fall by around 10 percent in the next decade while the International Energy Agency anticipates a 30 percent decline in prices by 2020.

All this means that by the time Lebanon starts extracting, gas reserves lying offshore may not be as valuable as they are currently estimated. Thus the sooner Lebanon moves forward, the better.

The old enemy

The second reason that time is key involves the maritime border dispute with Israel over 873,000 square kilometers believed to be rich in resources.

The United States has been an active partner in resolving the border dispute, with multiple visits by high-ranking American officials. US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Diplomacy Amos Hochstein visited Lebanon in November 2013 to push for a deal, meeting with several leading political officials including caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri and Bassil.

By some accounts Hochstein proposed a compromise for the dispute during his visit. According to a recently published news release by Alem & Associates, a legal firm representing oil companies bidding in the licensing round, the proposal “consists of setting a maritime blue line area between both countries in which the disputed zones will remain unexploited.” In general, the proposal prescribes freezing any exploration and exploitation activity in the disputed area until a permanent solution can be found.

But Lebanon’s political infighting may be strengthening the Israeli government’s position. Reports from Israel have indicated that Tel Aviv has rejected the compromise put forward by the Americans, perhaps a sign that Israeli leaders are feeling increasingly confident in the face of the Lebanese government’s inaction. Similarly the Israelis have a new gas exploratory site, the Karish well, with reserves estimated at up to 2 trillion cubic feet, approximately 20 kilometers south of Lebanon’s border claims.

It’s another promising find for the Israelis, who grow more concerned about their ability to protect offshore gas installations. In fact, the Israel Defense Force (IDF) is requesting nearly a billion dollars to fund operational costs for large patrol vessels, extended surveillance and intelligence capabilities, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This allocation would be in addition to the recent acquisition of two state of the art German frigates that are bound for patrol of their Exclusive Economic Zone waters.

Each passing day provides less incentive for mediators such as Hochstein to help Lebanon retain its territorial waters — enabling Israel to move closer toward claiming parts of the disputed zone. As Malek Takieddine, an oil and gas lawyer representing companies preparing to bid in Lebanon’s first licensing round, explained, “You might see Israel granting licenses or permitting certain operations near or inside the territories claimed by Lebanon. If this occurs, it might be also coupled by military protection.”

Moving Forward

Those wishing to move Lebanon’s oil and gas sector forward are faced with two unenviable options — back the caretaker energy minister to move ahead without the support of the government, or wait for the formation of a new government. On the latter, there have been a few positive signs in recent weeks that suggest the wait may be coming to an end.

Despite the continued delays and political bickering surrounding the petroleum file, technical work at the Ministry of Energy and Water and the Petroleum Administration (PA) continues. The PA — the six-member body charged with running Lebanon’s oil and gas sector — has recently drafted both an Onshore Petroleum Law and a Petroleum Tax Law, posted advertisements for employment opportunities, begun soliciting tenders for the next government-backed oil and gas conference, and has been coordinating a series of roundtable discussions and dialogues with local policy experts. According to Nakhle the PA has performed its duties with a level of professionalism not typical to Lebanese bureaucracy. “Various departments in other relevant ministries, like finance, environment and economy, should also be working at the same speed and getting themselves ready,” she added. Perhaps this new efficiency could start with the formation of a new government. Then the country could move forward in the right way.

February 5, 2014 1 comment

Finance

The right kind of business

by Thomas Schellen February 5, 2014

written by Thomas Schellen

Two niche markets are driving the business and growth of Jammal Trust Bank (JTB) at the start of 2014. One is in the bank’s home base in Lebanon and the other in West Africa. This diversification is not bad for a medium-sized lender that feels very comfortable being a mid-sized operator with just under $1 billion in assets — but what is surprising is that these two niches are at first sight entirely unconnected and even appear to represent opposite poles of core banking competencies.

In Africa, JTB’s market comprises primarily the expatriate Lebanese business community “in every country that borders the Atlantic starting from Angola and all the way up to Dakar [Senegal]. We are present in these countries in the sense that we have clients there who are basically larger-end clients,” says Anwar Jammal, JTB’s chairman and general manager.
In Lebanon, his clientele is far from big-ticket accounts and corporate transactions. Here, Jammal describes himself as banker of the small and medium enterprise (SME) clientele and JTB as a specialist bank in the much-neglected business of micro-lending, which not only in Lebanon is of no particular interest to the biggest banks. “We cater to SMEs and micro-businesses and in fact were the first bank to initiate micro-lending in Lebanon back in 1999,” he says, differentiating microcredit from small consumer loans by its purpose.

best of both worlds
The common denominator behind the opposing specializations is market knowledge. With most members of his generation in the Jammal family born as Lebanese expatriates in Africa, he claims to have an edge over other Beirut-based banks that approach the market as outsiders.

In the domestic market, JTB nurtured its role to be the “people’s bank” and has developed its expertise in the behavior of small customers ever since conducting a study finding that 50 to 60 percent of the bankable Lebanese population did not bank with anyone. From this study, which according to Jammal was done more than 10 years prior, JTB concluded that it would not try to chase a very small slice of the Lebanese market for large corporate accounts but rather focus on cultivating a clientele among the unbanked population and specifically target those 30 to 35 percent of bankable Lebanese citizens who thought that no bank would be interested to take them on as clients.

The strategy of the two niches has rewarded JTB nicely, with appreciable growth in the past few years. Partial banking sector figures for 2013 up to the month of November have shown JTB with growth across key indicators: seen year-on-year, assets expanded 27.4 percent, deposits grew 20.5 percent and lending increased by just under 27 percent. Net profits shot up tremendously, by 182 percent, but this has to be attributed to a large drop in exceptional expenses from the same period in the previous year, Jammal tells Executive.

While full-year results for the Lebanese banking sector in 2013 were not yet available at the time of the interview with JTB, last year’s partial sector results retrospectively provide a nice frame for the bank’s 50th anniversary near the end of last year. In a wider look over JTB’s financial evolution over the period since Anwar Jammal assumed the bank’s chairmanship in May 2005, growth rates showed broad strength. “Our average yearly growth of loans from 2005 till last year is 19.4 percent, average growth of total assets is just under 11 percent and the average growth of deposits is about 13.4 percent,” he says, adding that this pace of development allowed JTB to move its ranking by size of assets up by about 10 positions since 2005, to 23rd or 24th place in the sector.

Notwithstanding the growth rates that JTB recorded since he assumed the chairmanship in family succession, Jammal insists that he made no fundamental changes. “I can’t say that I have done anything innovative. We basically streamlined ourselves and focused ourselves on our core banking business. We tried not to be anything other than what we are: a medium-sized bank and we cater to the SMEs of Lebanon.”

He appears, however, to be prone to understatement in a very British way. Moreover, besides its dual market focus there is a second combination of seeming contradictions in JTB’s corporate DNA that is linked to his chairmanship. Jammal is not only the bank’s chairman and general manager; he also is its controlling shareholder since 2005. But while this combination is as close to operational omnipotence as it can get for a banker, the heir of JTB explains that he instead created a new governance structure with a board whose members, apart from him, hold no executive positions in the bank.

“I gave full power to the board, believe it or not. When I took over the bank, the powers that the chairman general manager actually had were frightening. I said to myself we either come out of this particular cycle to have a professional institution or maintain a small family-run business mindset. The first decision was that we want to go into being a professional institution, so I rescinded most of the authorities that I had and gave to the board,” Jammal explains.

Looking forward to the coming years, he foresees no diminishing of demand for credit in Africa and expects that the bank’s lending growth abroad will be curtailed by central bank-set limits for lending in countries with lower sovereign ratings long before any slackening of demand from borrowers.

Demand from SME borrowers and micro-credit applicants in Lebanon is also not going to wane in Jammal’s expectation and he assesses this market segment as less likely than others to be impacted by the continuing economic challenges related to the Syrian crisis.
SME lending constitutes the bank’s most important domestic credit activity, with a total amount of LL74 billion ($49 million) in lending to SMEs in 2012, followed by housing loans at LL69 billion ($46 million) and corporate loans at LL67 billion ($45 million) and SME loans were also the fastest growing loan segment between 2011 and 2012, displaying a year-on-year growth of over 60 percent from LL46 billion ($30.5 million) in 2011.

just the right size
While Jammal says that micro-lending is actually less risky than consumer lending in terms of default, he concedes that dealing with this clientele, many of whom have never banked before, makes the credit business much more labor intensive, which is reflected in higher interest rates. While reluctant to divulge the premium in interest rates that his bank charges over common market rates in Lebanon, the JTB chairman is adamant to compare the bank’s loan offers to those of non-banking money lenders. He emphasizes that prior to JTB’s focusing on micro-lending, small borrowers had no alternative to dealing with loan sharks and their extortive interest charges.

For developing the micro-credit and SME credit business of JTB, Jammal says the bank has a strategy to lower costs by automating and streamlining delivery and at the same time attracting more borrowers. He adds that this two-pronged approach is supported by risk assessment processes that the bank has developed on the basis of its experience with borrowers and which enable the bank to calculate credit scores in the profiling of loan applicants.

While he is decidedly working for growing the business of JTB — and in the long term aims to dilute the family aspect in the bank’s shareholder base by bringing in new shareholders — Anwar Jammal is one Lebanese banker who wants to profitably remain situated in the upper tiers of the beta banks (with deposits between $500 million and $2 billion). To him, going alpha would mean losing the bank’s competitive edge. “For as long as I am chairman, I certainly don’t want JTB to be one of the top 10 banks in Lebanon,” he says.

February 5, 2014 0 comments

The Buzz

Business briefing: 16 Jan 2014

by Executive Staff January 16, 2014

written by Executive Staff

Economics and Policy

Authorities in the UAE and Iran may have reached a tentative agreement to end a long-running dispute over three islands in the Gulf.

Lebanon’s futile stimulus package

by Joe Dyke January 14, 2014

written by Joe Dyke

When Riad Salameh, the governor of Banque du Liban (BDL), Lebanon’s central bank, announced in November $800 million for a new stimulus package to help the economy grow in 2014 — he was perhaps guilty of overstatement. While there will be $800 million made available, what Salameh neglected to mention was that $468 million of it was actually unused money from 2013’s stimulus package which will be rolled over. As such, just $332 million of purely new money will be extended, less than 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

While Salameh was quick to stress that the primary reason for not releasing more money was fear of inflation, there are other factors that may have caused him to ease off. Put simply, the impact of the first stimulus package remains unclear, while the general weakness in the economy and low levels of confidence mean that the positive effect of any new round of stimulus is likely to be muted. In such a climate, and with the ongoing political impasse showing no signs of easing up, the governor is faced with the unenviable task of again shouldering the burden of moving the economy forward with limited tools.

Assessing success

In January last year BDL announced the details of its first monetary stimulus package since 2009, with a total of $1.47 billion being extended. The mechanism, as with most monetary stimulus packages, was indirect — BDL would extend loans at 1 percent to the country’s commercial banks, providing they lend to their customers at corresponding lower rates. Specific sectors were targeted, with real estate receiving 56 percent of the funds, environmentally-friendly projects 20 percent and the productive sectors just 14 percent. The cumulative effect of the package, it was hoped, would be to boost demand in the economy by helping thousands of Lebanese buy their first homes, open businesses or develop existing projects.

Assessing the efficacy of these policies has proved difficult. The bank has yet to release detailed numbers on the impact and, industry experts say, is unlikely to do so. “We need to see the detailed results of the first stimulus to have the full picture,” Nassib Ghobril, head of research at Byblos Bank, says. “BDL doesn’t publish those but often the governor [Salameh] indicates them through the media.”

So far the main sign Salemeh has given was the seemingly high figure of 96,000 housing loans supported through the package, which he mentioned at a public speech in November. There has, however, been no specific data released on this, and so it is impossible to assess how many of these loans would have been taken out by home buyers anyway without the interest rate subsidy (see real estate article article).

Lebanon’s economic activity grew in total an estimated 1.5 percent in 2013, according to the World Bank and government figures, but how much of that was supported by the stimulus package is unclear. The World Bank has done what its economist Ibrahim Jamali describes as a “small analysis” but has yet to undertake a larger one, partly due to lack of data. “The extent of the impact is still not clear. We will have to wait at least one or two more quarters to have a more elaborate idea [of how it affected the economy].” Ghobril agrees that there are as yet “no reliable estimates” of the impact on GDP, but believes that “without the stimulus growth would probably have been lower.”

Producing growth

One area of criticism, however, has come from the focus of the stimulus package. The decision to put over half of the available funds into real estate has certainly helped boost parts of that sector, but the knock-on effects for the rest of the economy have perhaps been more muted than if investments had been made elsewhere.

The issue is that real estate in Lebanon already suffers from oversupply — half-built or already empty buildings scatter the country. As such, a measure that helps people invest in their first homes has limited multiplier effects for the overall economy. “New mortgages are not generating the construction of new buildings, so it doesn’t generate economic growth and new jobs,” Ghobril says.

While BDL has yet to release in-depth details of where the second round of stimulus will go, Salameh has indicated the focus will not fundamentally differ from its predecessor. “This new package is similar to the one we launched this year,” he said in November, singling out real estate and technology as targeted areas.

There are fears that the continued focus on housing in the second package will do even less than the first one to help stimulate the real economy. The World Bank estimates that only 6 percent of loans made possible by the stimulus package went to the productive sectors, where multiplier effects are higher. “The real estate sector has already benefited from the first stimulus package,” the Bank’s Jamali says. “It should not be omitted in the second one but maybe more funds should be allocated toward the productive sectors.” Ghobril concurs that a shift in emphasis is necessary. “Personally I would shift it toward companies and sectors rather than real estate and mortgages.”

Roger Melki, senior adviser to the Ministry of Economy and Trade, sees nothing wrong in support for the real estate sector but adds that small businesses are suffering and need support. “What we have observed in the last 12 months is that the small and medium sized companies are refraining from taking loans, but not the large ones, they are investing.” A key indication, he adds, is the loans made by Kafalat — the government sponsored loan-guarantee company which supports small and medium-sized businesses — have fallen, with companies wary of expansion. “If you look at Kafalat loan guarantees they are 16 percent lower in 2013.”

Deck chairs on the Titanic

While debates about the focus of the package are relevant, more fundamental problems look set to undermine the impact of Salameh’s plans. One reason to doubt the impact of any stimulus package is the desperately low levels of confidence in the economy.

In the first six months of 2013, the Byblos Bank/AUB Consumer Confidence Index dropped to its lowest level since the index was founded in 2007. In total there was an average monthly reading of 29.4, down 14.1 percent from the second half of 2012. The primary reason is the country’s political turmoil, with the impact of the Syria crisis a major factor. Effectively, confidence in the economy is so low that even if loans are cheap, customers may be hesitant to invest.

In the face of such a difficult challenge policy makers need as many options as possible, but Salameh’s hands are tied. The central bank can only carry out a monetary stimulus — lending to the banks cheaply on the basis that the interest subsidy will feed into the economy — but such a funding mechanism is flawed in a static economy. If, as was the case with 2013’s package, confidence is so low that there is not enough demand, then the money goes unused. The alternative would be a fiscal stimulus — direct government spending in key sectors to boost demand.

“A fiscal stimulus would have a more direct impact. In terms of monetary policy you talk about channels of transmission — there is a stimulus package but unless people are willing to borrow the money and do something with it, it is not that useful,” the World Bank’s Jamali says. “With a fiscal stimulus the government is spending that money, so there is no question whether people will borrow it or do something with it that is not useful. A fiscal stimulus would be more immediate and this might be desirable at this time, given the state of the economy.”

Fiscal stimuli such as a hearty infrastructure development package might benefit Lebanon in more than one way. Applying this Keynesian methodology would be the responsibility of the government and this, unfortunately, is outside the realm of options for Salameh. Since the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati in March 2013, Lebanon has been without a government of any kind, and there are few prospects of forming one in the coming months. For this reason, a fiscal stimulus package is impossible. In effect, the complete failure of the country’s political class to work together has crippled the country’s economic options for countering the impact of the downturn and forced Salameh into action. “BDL is taking on the role the executive branch should be doing. It is the government that should find ways for growth not the central bank having to bear this burden again,” Ghobril says.

As Lebanon looks for economic hope in 2014, the stimulus package is one area of positivity. Salameh has long been the driving force behind the economy, filling the role the politicians have failed to. But a combination of a severe lack of confidence, odd choices of focus and a lack of alternative options mean the real economy will likely be numb to the stimulus.

January 14, 2014 0 comments

The Buzz

Business briefing: 14 Jan 2014

by Executive Staff January 14, 2014

written by Executive Staff

Economics and Policy

An electronic system that warns Saudi men when their female “dependents” are leaving the kingdom will be made optional in an historic move towards greater female independence.

Ambitious creativity

by Livia Murray January 10, 2014

written by Livia Murray

Through a sliding glass door and up a white spiral staircase, the entrance to Innovo’s two-man office in the Beirut Digital District is guarded by a miniature army truck alongside a satellite dish. Though they look like toys, they were actually designed in the office’s small lab as side projects that Innovo’s founder Jad Berro and colleague Ihab Hajj developed when they weren’t toiling on projects for the clients of their hardware and electronics company.

The creative process

The Innovo team use solutions devised through their more playful projects to give a creative edge to problem-solving in their contracted work, which includes work for Touch, Kidzmondo and Emirati telecom company Du.

“Most of the time the stuff I do for fun is related to the stuff I do for work,” says Berro. Spending roughly 70-80 percent of their time on contract work, they can then turn to their own projects the rest of the time. And it seems they might be onto something with their model since their creative projects often go on to inspire subsequent solutions for clients, demonstrating that playfulness can fuel creativity in business.

Some of Innovo’s side projects have obvious practical applications, some less so, and some remain purely in the domain of fun — although which category each fits into usually transpires late in the process. The satellite dish by the entrance is one project that began as pure fun, but later proved useful in developing products for clients. The dish tracks satellites and planes, providing information on their position, and can also pick up international TV stations. Latterly some of its algorithms and design elements were incorporated into client projects.

Although non-disclosure agreements stop Innovo from discussing the specifics of current clients, ongoing projects include robots, infrared sensors and receivers, and photographic drones. For previous customers it has designed products ranging from interactive vending machines to amusement park flying saucers.

Berro launched the company in 2009, at the time delivering technology products to just a few clients. But, as he worked on more and more projects, he gradually gained in reputation until clients began approaching him. “I don’t even have a business card, it’s just people telling people,” he says.

The company’s work really took off two months ago, when Berro was approached by Tarek Dajani, chairman and chief operating officer of digital media umbrella group DNY, to work on a project whose content Berro could not disclose at the time of the interview. Since then they have moved to their current offices, joining the rest of the companies under the DNY Group umbrella. DNY delivers clients to Innovo, while Innovo brings a degree of technological know-how to the group. So far Innovo has two staff members but, by Dajani’s calculations, it’s likely to grow to 10-15 employees by the end of 2014.

The DNY culture

As far as creative thinking goes, Innovo’s recent integration into the DNY offices is in line with the work culture within the group. Experimentation “has been very much part of the DNA across the board in the companies,” explains Dajani. “You find yourself in a discussion with the client and a problem arises, or a constraint, and you would dig into what you’ve done for fun.” DNY has been experimenting for some time with various technologies. Its work with radio-frequency identification, a wireless data-transferring technology, dates back to around 2004-2005. “We’ve done a lot of projects. If I show you the list of things that worked, things that didn’t, things that made sense, things that didn’t, you’d be shocked,” says Dajani.

Dajani received his first degree in architecture at the American University of Beirut, and often likens DNY’s creative business approach to the process of architectural projects. Business and product development, like architecture, can be approached from a design perspective wherein the outcome of the product is not based on pure numbers but on a creative approach. “In design, you can have the same brief for a [piece of] land for architecture, and you end up with millions of permutations and designs addressing all the same constraints. That applies to business,” says Dajani.

The DNY Beirut office, where the majority of its 80 employees work (the rest are stationed in Dubai), is designed to offer tools that stimulate communication and new ideas among its employees. Glass walls delineating different spaces give it an open feel and act as a note board, covered in scribbled plans from brainstorming sessions. The offices also contain a room of products that were previously designed for clients, and which stay in the building so staff can continue to work on improving them. “It’s a tough culture here because we’re demanding — no one settles for the obvious. We’re irrational sometimes in our expectations, very ambitious in terms of what we’d like to see and very rarely satisfied with the end product,” says Dajani.

Design thinking

Creativity has always played a large role in the technology industry, with innovation most obviously necessary in the research and development phase of product development. “But I think innovation is not just a tech thing — it’s a way of looking at things,” says Dajani. “There’s this design thinking approach to everything, this kind of philosophy, looking at business and designing across different disciplines. That’s becoming more the norm in terms of how you look at the business model and financial challenges.”

Popularized by big names such as Apple co-founder Steve Jobs, and David Kelly, founder of international design and innovation consulting firm IDEO, design thinking dates back to the first Apple mouse. It’s the idea that maintaining a healthy, creative culture among employees in a company will lead to more disruptive innovations. This entails changing the process by which you think in order to innovate. Adults tend to self-censor their own ideas, inhibiting creativity, so playfulness is positively encouraged to help counteract this process.

Why make the case for design thinking? One can cut costs with a smart fiscal strategy, gain a greater market share through smart advertising tactics and marketing, and continue to test new products to keep up with the changing world. These are all important elements in the routine of a successful company. But companies that have really stood out are those which are able to incorporate revolutionary ideas into their products. These are the companies that made a mark, that disrupted markets.

January 10, 2014 0 comments

Business

The startup upstart

by Tara Nehme January 10, 2014

written by Tara Nehme

When you live in Lebanon and the startup you created, or work, for is taking you to France — you know you’re doing something right. That was the recurring thought running through my mind as I and 11 other unique startup founders headed to Paris in December, to showcase the achievements of the Middle East startup scene at the Arab Pavilion at LeWeb 2013.

LeWeb, as described by its creators, is “an international conference for startups and all web entrepreneurs looking to kick-start and accelerate their business, reach global media or discover the next great idea,” and we were there to sell our souls. This might seem like an extreme move. But when you’re paying obscene amounts of money to enter a massive room with Guy Kawasaki on stage, and representatives from every media and investment powerhouse floating among crowds trying to seek out the next big thing, soul-selling seems like the best plan to set yourself apart from the entrepreneurial herd.

From hardware to health, matchmaking to crowdfunding and online entertainment to retail, the 12 of us successfully seized the attention of everyone that mattered. A euronews journalist said it best when he titled his article ‘Middle Eastern startups the talk of LeWeb 2013’.

Let’s talk about conferences. Conferences, in general, are not the most thrilling concept and are usually associated with monotonous speakers, bad coffee and sleep-inducing boredom. For me, that misconception was cleared up as soon as I began my startup life, and even more so after LeWeb; an unparalleled experience to say the least.

layers of opportunity

High powered, large-scale events such as LeWeb offer four essential layers of opportunity. First comes the networking, the toughest yet most valuable part. My business cards were my arsenal; I just needed to figure out whom to hand them out to and how I could speak to the important people that initially seemed inaccessible. A proper alignment of teamwork and hustling was the key. You will never get to everyone, so referring people whose interests better suited other startups to them and having them do the same worked like a charm. During our three days there many of us set the basis for potential partnerships that could catapult our startup out of the Middle East and onto the global market.

LeWeb was graced by Google and their mini kingdom of powerful workshops — the second opportunity — which addressed topics such as measuring the impact of effective brand campaigns to monetizing video traffic. Third were the startup pitches, where early stage companies presented to an array of investors, a process that has been proven successful at these types of events worldwide, and specifically in the Middle East. Winning second place at ArabNet in Riyadh at the end of last year, for example, provided Presella.com with the opportunity to go to Silicon Valley for a month as part of a mentorship program by Progress in Technology Middle East.

Fourth come the speakers: international success stories and panelists. Hala Fadel, chair of the MIT Enterprise Forum for the Pan Arab Region, challenged the many misconceptions of the Middle East and discussed — with Instabeat founder Hind Hobeika as an example — how the many hurdles faced by startups in the region have actually proved beneficial as they have forced companies to come up with innovative, bulletproof solutions, making startups more immune to future setbacks.

I left LeWeb having met hundreds of cool people and one major contact; the potential for that one key relationship is what makes conferences useful. The real question is whether you are going to do whatever it takes to find it and grab it.

Our presence at LeWeb marked a monumental achievement for the Middle Eastern startup scene. We were all people that were a part of or created companies from nothing more than an idea on a napkin. Somehow, we turned these ideas into real companies and found ourselves in France talking to international press, investors and potential partners, ending 2013 on a high note. LeWeb’s tagline reads “Where revolutionaries gather to the plot the future” and that’s exactly what we did. I don’t think the term “revolutionary” is more suited to anyone than us Arabs because, where we come from, being revolutionary is the only thing that works.

January 10, 2014 0 comments