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The Buzz

Morning briefing: 12 Nov 2012

by Executive Staff November 12, 2012
written by Executive Staff

The global oil market is in a good shape and Saudi Arabia is happy with the current oil price, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Sunday, expressing satisfaction over a Gulf Arab effort which kept prices in check.

More from Arabian Business

 

The UAE economy is showing impressive resilience with Dubai recording a steady improvement from a negative to two per cent growth in 2011 and a projected 3.4 per cent growth in 2012 and even a higher growth rate in 2013, the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, said on Sunday.

More from Khaleej Times

 

Elsewhere, the UAE's Minister of Economy Sultan bin Saeed Al Mansouri expects up to four per cent economic growth in 2012.

More from Khaleej Times

 

Kuwait's market is expected to see limited impact from Sunday's demonstrations, which were carried out under tight security, but weakness in global markets is likely to weigh on Gulf sentiment.

More from Arabian Business

 

The Middle East tourism market lagged behind other parts of the world in the first eight months of this year. According to new figures released by United Nations World Tourism Organisation, the region saw a one percent fall in tourist numbers between January and August.

More from Arabian Business

 

Companies

Dubai-based Emirates Airline posted a net profit of $464m for the first six months of its current fiscal year ending September 30, a rise of 104% compared to the same period a year ago.

More from AME Info

 

Politics

The Palestinian Authority will submit a bid to the United Nations General Assembly for non-state membership this month, president Mahmoud Abbas said yesterday.

More from The National

 

Israel is "prepared to escalate" its response to a flare-up of violence along its border with the Gaza Strip, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned today.

More from The National

November 12, 2012 0 comments
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The Buzz

Morning briefing: 9 Nov 2012

by Executive Staff November 9, 2012
written by Executive Staff

Economics

Brent crude futures steadied above $107 on Friday and were poised to end the week with a marginal gain, their first in four, but prices are likely to remain under pressure as the outlook for the global economy, and fuel demand, remains weak.

More from Arabian Business

 

Lebanese Energy and Water Minister Gebran Bassil said Thursday he expects companies to be invited to start bidding for oil and gas excavation licenses before the end of this year, should everything go according to plan.

“The executive decrees concerning oil and gas exploration are supposed to be issued soon. We should have done this work before, but as they say ‘it’s better late than never,’” Bassil said.

More from The Daily Star

 

Royal Dutch Shell, RWE and TransGlobe Energy have won concessions in Egypt’s first licensing round since the 2011 revolution in a sign that international oil firms are undeterred by a payment backlog of billions of dollars.

More from The Daily Star

 

Air traffic management and safety are key priorities for Middle East aviation officials as the region looks to build on its rapid growth over the past decade, Tony Tyler, director general and CEO of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has said.

More from Arabian Business

 

The former governor of Iraq's central bank who was removed from his job amid allegations of financial impropriety has vowed to clear his name.

More from The National

 

Iran has frozen the import of more than 2,000 products deemed "luxury goods" to address a shortage of foreign currency caused by Western sanctions, media reports said Thursday quoting trade officials.

More from The Daily Star

 

Companies

Abu Dhabi's Aabar Investments, the top shareholder in Italian bank UniCredit, has lost its chief financial officer and another top executive, sources familiar with the matter said.

More from Arabian Business

 

The search for the UAE’s most outstanding businesses, entrepreneurs and business leaders has finally ended with the announcement of the winners of the inaugural Gulf Capital SMEinfo Awards.

More from Khaleej Times

 

Middle Eastern buyers piled into London’s luxury home market in October as they shielded their wealth from political turmoil back home, including the Syrian civil war.

More from The Daily Star

 

Qatar National Bank (QNB) Group announced that it has successfully issued a $1 billion bond under its Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) Program in the international capital markets.

More from Gulf Business

 

November 9, 2012 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

A slippery second step

by Joe Dyke November 9, 2012
written by Joe Dyke

And as if from nowhere, there was a breakthrough.

Ten months after the Council of Ministers, Lebanon’s cabinet, demanded the establishment of a Petroleum Administration (PA), and nine months after the Energy Minister promised to do so, on Wednesday the six-member body was finally established. Many of those watching from the sidelines were beginning to abandon hope that a deal would ever be struck.

As the year has gone on, Lebanon’s inability to form the crucial committee — which will negotiate with international oil companies and eventually issue licenses for drilling — has allowed its neighbors Israel and Cyprus to pull further ahead in the rush to explore offshore oil and gas. Now, finally, the country can take the next steps in its bid to tap the huge potential wealth off its coast.

Pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes

Yet while having a committee is undoubtedly better than not, there are many questions to be asked about the one that emerged, foremost among which is the speed at which the decision was made. Wednesday's cabinet meeting focused on the current standoff with unions over wages, but with a few minutes remaining the PA was brought up. Reports allege that it was confirmed with little debate.

Member of Parliament Ghazi Youssef, an energy expert from the opposition Future Movement, said the eventual decision was pushed through too fast for proper regulation, and even charged that Prime Minister Najib Mikati was not given time to scrutinize the six-member list.

“I think the process is flawed, the minister (of Energy Gebran Bassil) wanted to push it through without any oversight,” he said. “I have heard that even the prime minister was not given the list of nominees before having to make the decision.”

The appointments are for six years, during which time Lebanon could begin to reap the benefits of its offshore resources. The body will play a crucial role in getting the best deal for Lebanon for its offshore gas, which Roudi Baroudi, an independent energy consultant and Secretary General of the World Energy Council’s (WEC) Lebanon Member Committee, has estimated could be worth up to $100 million per day.

And yet there are already concerns whether the six men selected are up to the job. Baroudi said that while he welcomed the PA he was concerned that the members were too inexperienced in the field. “You can see that of the people on the list, not all of them have anything to do with oil and gas. I have heard the names and some of them are very young,” he said.

Wissam Zahabi, head of Economic and Financial Affairs on the committee, is well respected but, in his early forties, has relatively little experience in the kind of deal making that will be required in the coming year, while other members have less than a decade in the industry.

“Members of a committee of this nature have to have 25 years experience or more to be able to negotiate with the heads of International Oil Companies (IOCs) like Shell and get a good deal,” Baroudi added.

Sectarianism strikes again

Part of the issue is Lebanon’s sectarian system, which demands that senior positions are shared out on the basis of religious affiliation. Of the six members, there are three Christians (Greek Catholic, Maronite, and Greek Orthodox) and three Muslims (Sunni, Shiite and Druze).

Then there is the inevitable political wrangling as politicians seek influence over the multi-billion dollar industry. Parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri is alleged to have orchestrated the deal that finally broke the stalemate, but all major political groupings will seek influence over the related deals.

This process, as Dany Haddad from the Lebanese Transparency Association points out, can lead to the square pegs being jammed into round holes.

“I don’t believe that there was an opening online for them to submit their CV and then be judged on their merits. It is not selected on merit, it is selected on denomination,” he said. “The entire procedure should be changed — there must be an authority that elects those people, they should be selected by experts, not politicians.”

Others are less concerned. Mohammed Qabbani, head of parliament's Public Works, Transport, Energy and Water Committee, said the decision was to be welcomed.

“I think it is a positive step towards taking the executive path concerning oil and gas exploration,” he said. “Until now we have been talking about laws and degrees on paper, now this is the first executive step which will lead to the start of giving licenses.”

Qabbani denied that there had not been sufficient scrutiny of the process, saying each member had been selected from a three-person shortlist. “The names have been known for some time; there are no surprises in there.”

Whatever the merits of the committee, they will have to hit the ground running, as the next year will be pivotal. If the proposed schedule is kept in the next two to three months, the PA will finalize the decrees to be issued by the government. After that IOCs will be given six months to prepare and present their cases. This will be followed by four months of negotiation, culminating, theoretically, in agreements in around a year’s time.

In this period, the potential for infighting between Lebanon’s notoriously bickering politicians is huge. Indeed, international energy giants seeking to negotiate a better deal may find it in their interests to play rival political groupings off against each other.

Baroudi stressed that the two main political groupings — the opposition March 14 and the ruling March 8 — must seek unity or else the country would end up negotiating a bad deal. “The most important thing is a complete understanding between March 14 and 8 and then the second most important thing is the rule of law,” he said. “I hope this is not a political football because this could help all Lebanese across the country.”

 

Who’s on the Petroleum Administration?

Executive Magazine asked the Ministry of Energy for full CVs of the members, but as of time of publication had not received any such documents.

Wissam Chbat

Born: 1973

Religion: Maronite

Years of experience: 15

Role: Head of Geology and Geophysics

Previous employer: Petroleum Adviser to the Minister of Energy.

Bio: Been heavily involved in the bidding process after being appointed an advisor by Energy Minister Gebran Bassil. Well-known and respected in the field, though close to the minister.

 

Gaby Daaboul

Born: 1968

Religion: Greek Orthodox

Years of experience: 18

Role: Head of Strategic Planning

Previous employer: Legal advisor at Safadi Foundation

Bio: Closely linked to the Minister of Finance Mohammed Safadi, he has been heavily involved with the development of Lebanon’s offshore oil and gas. Has received training in Norway on the project.

 

Nasser Hoteit

Born: 1959

Religion: Shiite

Years of experience: 29

Role: Head of Technical and Engineering

Previous employer: Total oil company

Bio: Previously a well-respected expert with the global energy giant Total, Hoteit is not believed to have been heavily involved in the search for offshore resources until now.

 

Asim Abu Ibrahim

Born: 1976

Religion: Druze

Years of experience: 13

Role: Head of quality control, health, safety and the environment 

Previous employer: Abou Ibrahim Riad Trading Est.

Bio: Ibrahim is less well-known in energy circles and, having completed his studies in 2001, is younger than other members of the board. He previously work for Bureau Veritas – which produces diversified solutions for major oil companies.

 

Walid Nasser

Religion: Greek Catholic

Role: Head of Strategic Planning section

Previous employer: UNDP

Bio: Like other board members, Nasser is under the age of 40 but is well-respected due to his experience with the United Nations.

 

Wissam al-Zahabi   

Born: 1970    

Religion: Sunni

Years of experience: 17

Role: Head of Economic and Financial Affairs

Previous employer: Policy Specialist at UNDP and energy adviser at the presidency of the Council of Ministers.

Bio: Like Wissam Chbat, Zahabi is well-known in the Lebanese energy sector. He advised the previous Prime Minister Saad Hariri and was kept on by his successor Najib Mikati.

November 9, 2012 0 comments
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The Buzz

Morning briefing: 8 Nov 2012

by Executive Staff November 8, 2012
written by Executive Staff

Economics

A new Turkish state oil and gas company is negotiating with Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to take stakes in several exploration blocks – a development that would signal dramatic headway for the Kurds in their quest for oil sector autonomy.

More from Iraq Oil Report

 

But elsewhere the central Iraqi government in Baghdad is struggling to find buyers for all its 2013 oil output on term contracts, industry sources said, as foreign refiners complain of high prices and variable quality from the world's fastest growing crude exporter.

More from Reuters

 

Brent crude fell nearly 4 per cent on Wednesday as problems facing the economies of the United States and Europe darkened investor sentiment a day after the re-election of U.S. President Barack Obama.

More from Gulf Business

 

Qatar is looking to buy US$9.9bn worth of missiles and defence equipment from the US, Pentagon officials announced, just days after it placed an order for US$6.5bn worth of missile-defence systems.

More from Arabian Business
 

Bahrain's government plans to cut its budget spending by almost 6 percent in 2013 as it seeks to curb its deficit, a draft budget released by the finance ministry shows.

More from Arabian Business

 

Companies

Emirates Airline would order at least 100 Boeing 777 wide-body jets if the Chicago-based manufacturer upgraded the design of the aircraft, the Dubai-based carrier’s president has said.

More from Gulf Business

 

 

November 8, 2012 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLuxury in the Gulf

Damas: The golden boys

by Thomas Schellen November 7, 2012
written by Thomas Schellen

Damas is the leading jewelry chain in the United Arab Emirates and a luxury venture that claims to have a 17 percent share of the domestic market. The roots of its founding family in the precious business go back more than a century. Today the company is owned by regional investors. Fortified with a recent business restructuring and a clear strategy of concentration on its core market, namely the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, it is positioning itself for growth, specifically in Saudi Arabia, but also seeks to further expand its standing in the UAE, chief executive Anan Fakhreddin told Executive.

“When the restructuring started two years ago, we put the first priority on our core markets. Our core markets definition today is the GCC. These are the markets where Damas started and where we have a very strong understanding of consumer trends and preferences,” Fakhreddin said. 

Organizational and marketing initiatives in the recent past included new partnerships with international jewelry brands, investments in quality assurance, including collaboration with UAE authorities for training customs officers on purity of gold, and the hiring of a Bollywood celebrity for a marketing campaign for the Diwali Hindu festival. The festival, which this year falls in November, is a huge jewelry buying occasion for the Asian customer segment in the UAE and stores can get so crowded with customers that one can hardly move, explained a Damas spokesperson.  

The outcome of the 2012 business year for Damas is going to be determined to a large part by the last two months of the year, Fakhreddin said, due to the role of the Diwali and overall contribution of the year-end holiday season to sales. 

So far, so normal. But the corporate narrative of this jewelry house in 2012 is more than some lore of doing business in gold and precious stones. It is a cautionary tale that a corporate centenarian can make a pretty bundle of mistakes, that mature individual age and folly are not mutually exclusive, and most importantly, the most recent chapter of its story is that a turnaround is possible at over 100 years old. 

A Shaky start

About five years ago, the successful family group Damas, which since 2005 included a minority stake holding by two regional private-equity players, was preparing for its future. At the time, a business prophecy was making the rounds among the family-owned enterprises in the Gulf region. This prophecy, with many good success stories and references from developed economies, said that the future was for  them to become listed companies. 

The UAE stock markets were not even 10 years old for the Dubai and Abu Dhabi bourses and the youngest, then known as Dubai International Financial Exchange (DIFX), was still in its diapers, full of promise. Many who appeared as wise consultants advised the business families of Dubai and anywhere in the Arab region that it would be a boon for the national economy and a far-sighted decision for any large and ambitious family enterprise to undertake an initial public offering.  

The Abdullahs (Tawfique, Tawhid, and Tamjid), three brothers whose grandfather had laid the foundations for the Damas Group, decided to go for an IPO. The company picked the highly-touted DIFX (today Nasdaq Dubai) and embarked on its flotation. Smack in the middle of 2008. 

What happened then lends itself to the perception that no financial thriller writer could have imagined a worse time and place for any company to go public than June/July 2008 on the DIFX. Damas announced that its IPO successfully raised $270 million by floating 28 percent of its capital at $1 a share, valuing the enterprise at close to $970 million. It did not announce that one of the Abdullahs — Tawhid, who was chief executive of Damas — had done a circular investment pact with several investment companies in Dubai, including a unit of Dubai Holding, by which he lent them cash used to buy 100 million shares in the IPO. In 2009, the loan was reportedly converted into an investment that seems to imply that Damas had effectively bought itself and all it got out of it was a huge, non-performing loan, according to a report in Abu Dhabi-based newspaper, The National.    

Moreover, the Abdullah brothers had run Damas with a piggy bank approach, taking out cash and borrowing gold at will and with no control, to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. The feudal approach to corporate governance might have perhaps been manageable in better times, but with the global economic crisis, the burst of the Dubai economic bubble and many soured investment gambles by the Abdullahs, it all came out. The Abdullahs were obligated to resign and banned by the financial authority from managerial roles, for 10 years, at any company based at the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC).

Left behind was an orphaned company with hundreds of scattered stores (in a July 2008 Reuters news item on the Damas IPO it said the company operations entailed 438 stores in 18 countries) and a big financial problem.  Deals were struck and a formula for repayment of their obligations to creditors including Damas was agreed upon with the Abdullahs. As often with grim fairy tales, many gaps in the narrative of this corporate crash were left for interested readers to fill with their own assumptions. 

The turnaround of Damas entailed a restructuring under Fakhreddin’s captaincy that commenced in 2010 and a buyout by regional investors in  the spring of last year. The new parents, Mannai Corporation of Doha, Qatar, and EFG Hermes, the Egyptian investment bank, paid 45 cents on the dollar for each share in Damas and took control of 85 percent in the company, according to stock market reports. 

Mannai Corp, owning a 66 percent controlling stake in Damas, says on its website that it is Qatar’s largest trade and services conglomerate; it is affiliated with the ruling al Thani family. The other 15 percent in Damas remained with the Abdullahs.      

Future expansion

Fakhreddin said he could not discuss the owners’ plans for the jewelry company but told Executive that “they have been investing in terms of assets, resources, and support and are investing very generously on the brand. The Damas brand will see a lot of growth in the coming years because of this takeover and the level of attention and support that we are getting from the new owners.” 

Importantly, the new shareholders’ investment decision was long-term, he said. “It is not a turnaround project where you buy something, fix it, and sell it.”

Besides sorting out the financial obligations of the mismanaged enterprise, the restructuring of Damas entailed structural changes of operations that had been convoluted with less-than-strategic investment decisions and movements into new markets. The GCC was always the center of Damas’ retailing strength but this was “unfortunately sometimes overlooked” and the weeding of overseas operations was needed, Fakhreddin said. “Today we follow the strategy that makes sure that investments are placed in core markets. Until we are satisfied with penetration levels in those markets, I don’t think we will look at expansions in any other markets.”

In line with this business plan, Damas appears to be not aggressively approaching the market in India where it has a joint venture (JV) managed by the JV partner. It has bought out its partner in Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, and is planning to attack this market vigorously. According to Fakhreddin the past 18 months since the full acquisition in Saudi Arabia saw growth but the main task achieved was refocusing the organization on serving the high-end and middle-class luxury segments. 

The Damas chief executive expects the “real success story” will commence in 2013 when the expansion plan of stores in Saudi Arabia kicks off. The company understands well the currently very fragmented Saudi jewelry market because of many similarities to the Arab segment in the Dubai and Abu Dhabi markets. Fakhreddin said, “Potential for market share in Saudi, one of the top jewelry markets in the world, is still open for growth.”  

Performance of Damas in financial terms has been stable in the past three years on the side of gross revenues. As the company de-listed from Nasdaq Dubai this summer (and is switching its financial year to the calendar year in 2012), Fakhreddin said that the company has more or less completed the restructuring and has only “to sort out files in some non-core markets where we have business relationships that we want to realign.”

That should be achieved in the first quarter of 2013, he added, and then they want to grow much more than in the past four or five years, in which things had been “a little static because of the global recession and our issues. We are planning lots of improvement in terms of brand, [the] look and feel of the shops, [and] customer service. Much of that will be tackled in 2013.”

November 7, 2012 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLuxury in the Gulf

Illusions of grandeur

by Nicole Walter November 7, 2012
written by Nicole Walter

To make it as luxury real estate in the Gulf region these days, a development must have more than a funky name and a public relations consultant. Nurai, a residential island just off Abu Dhabi’s coast, is one example of a successful luxury real estate development in United Arab Emirates. Launched back in 2008, the project boasts of waterfront living in privacy, “stunning designs” and “attention to detail”. 

 

Zaya, the developer of Nurai, had identified a gap in the ultra high-end real estate market and the project proved resilient in the economic crisis of the following years. With buyers sticking with their commitments to the million-dollar properties on Nurai, Zaya co-founder and chief executive Nadia Zaal attests to the viability of catering to the narrow market segment of luxury real estate targeting high net-worth individuals. 

 

“It is the only segment where demand across the world continues to outstrip supply, which reinforces our belief that this segment has great potential,” she tells Executive. “Ultimately, it’s all about creating the right product for the right people in the right location.”

 

Adapting to the downturn

 

While prices haven’t fluctuated too much, Zaya decided to reduce the number of homes after the crisis hit quite early in the construction phase. “We realized it was far better to reduce the size and finish the project,” says Zaal. Commencing handover of residences this month, the developer made efforts to ensure that residents will be receiving value-added — the idea being that luxury real estate will remain in demand if the development package really contains what is said on the box. 

 

As the Dubai real estate crisis recedes, sales in the market tier slightly below the ultra-high end have recently hinted at growing demand for other types of high-end property. When Emaar Properties received an overwhelming response to its launch of The Address The BLVD, it cited the one-day sell out of the project’s serviced apartments in Downtown Dubai as evidence for pent-up demand for luxury residential projects.

 

However, what works for Emaar in the most attractive corner of Dubai might not be right for every player. “Emaar is able to benefit from its strong brand reputation and the quality of the existing Downtown project. This does not mean that there is strong demand for other projects in Dubai,” says Craig Plumb, head of research for the Middle East and North Africa at international real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), cautioning developers might be wrong in rushing into risks in this segment. 

 

Compared with the idea of putting cookie-cutter residential units up in the middle or even lower-middle range of the market, the grand image and high valuations of luxury real estate may be tempting, but developers have to be careful of assessing demand and market potentials. 

 

“I think the depth of demand for the luxury sector is very thin, and the risks are therefore higher, there is also much greater competition in this sector of the market in Dubai,” alerts Plumb. His advice for developers thinking to enter the luxury segment is to instead target the much larger and far less crowded middle markets in most of the region. 

 

Bouncing back

 

But where does luxury start in real estate today? For the UAE, pre-crisis price trends in the high-end of the market are reasserting themselves this autumn, suggesting luxury properties carry price tags between AED 5 million to AED 6 million ($1.36 million to $1.64 million) for penthouse apartments and villas, and move up to more than AED 80 million ($21.8 million) for ultra-luxury mansions.

 

While margins on many other luxury goods, from handbags to cars, are often higher than for mid-range products of the same type, developing luxury real estate is not the most rewarding of property market activities when measured in return on investments (ROI). The ROI on a luxury villa or apartment right now is 3 to 5 percent, whereas mid-range property provides 4 to 8 percent, says David Terry, luxury sales manager at Luxhabitat, a UAE brokerage dedicated to properties valued above $1.36 million. 

 

As the best returns are generated in the mid-range, this is reflected in the profiles of his clients, he points out: “There are investors in luxury property but not that many; we mainly have end-users buying.” 

 

Luxhabitat launched two of Emaar’s buildings, which the company says it sold off in an hour. Off-plan luxury developments, which had been marginalized in the immediate post-crisis period, are no longer frowned upon by buyers. “There are quite a lot of sales in off-plan developments,” Terry comments, but adds that he thinks  launching new luxury developments would not be wise at this time.

 

Despite recent success in Dubai and Abu Dhabi on selling what was already on the drawing board, new announcements of luxury projects have recently indeed been scarce not only in the UAE but the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Well-known names are emphasizing presence, though. In Oman the $3.5 billion The Wave luxury residential and hotel development is selling its first waterfront apartments, and in Qatar two new luxury residential towers are expected on The Pearl Qatar (TPQ). 

 

TPQ master developer United Development Company (UDC) tells Executive that price rates were generally stable over the past six months. The numbers for transactions and inquiries have picked up and the prices for luxury properties in Qatar are expected to go the same way. Wealthy property buyers in this country, with the world’s top nominal per capita gross domestic product, now have domestic choices where the market remains on a learning curve.  “More than ever, understanding the issues impacting the real estate market for luxury and mid-market developments will be critical to investors’ success in the next few years ahead and that will also have an impact on the profit and risk margins,” says TPQ’s director of corporate communications, Roger W. Dagher.  

 

Costs of building big

 

Qatar, perhaps not coincidentally at all, is the most expensive country in the Middle East when it comes to construction costs, sitting 16th out of 53 ranked countries in the 2012 International Construction Costs Report by London-based consultancy EC Harris, and was cited by the firm as example for a country where costs are likely to rise. 

 

The willingness of Gulf-based developers to go luxury could be impacted by an upward spiraling of construction expenses, not only in Qatar itself but there are spillover fears in the UAE, already ranked 17th for construction costs. The concern is that demand in Saudi Arabia (ranked 25th) and Qatar could lead to unbalanced price escalation in the UAE construction sector, due to under-capacity.

 

Cost hikes are a major risk factor in building luxury properties, given that developers have to manage built-in costs that are higher than in other market segments. “Developing luxury real estate is fundamentally different than developing low to mid-income real estate,” says Zaya’s Zaal. “There are many factors that differentiate the cost. Firstly, even though the raw material cost for concrete and steel are the same, the design of the structure plays a big role in varying construction cost.”

 

A few feet more in ceiling height may not sound like promising the moon, but larger spaces, more glazing, complex building technology and more advanced mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) elements, along with top interior finishes and fit-out and creation of an exclusive community, all add to the bills that have already been front-loaded with costs for a land plot in premium location.  

 

Despite issues of thin demand and increasing financial risks, there are of course the development diehards and the visionaries of the UAE who see creation of both ultimate and affordable luxury properties as their calling and say their time is now. 

 

Colossal visionaries

 

Abu Dhabi’s Tourism Development Investment Co (TDIC) is a company that fits this bill. “It’s the right time to launch residential projects, especially luxury products, as we are pleased to see healthy signs of recovery in the property market,” says Ahmed al-Fahim, executive director of marketing, communications, sales and leasing at TDIC. 

 

Responsible for the Saadiyat Island project, designed to become the UAE’s heart of culture with one new museum per year in the next few years, TDIC has sought competitive advantage in creating a prestigious address. To do so and keep luxury flowing into the Abu Dhabi market, Fahim is enthusiastic about the branding of TDIC’s high-end residences and hospitality products with names such as St. Regis, Monte Carlo and Anantara.

 

In Dubai, perhaps most notable new luxury projects are the two Meydan Group developments announced last month at Cityscape Global. These are the Meydan Tower on Sheikh Zayed, a luxury high rise whose exact dimensions will yet be determined, and Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid, a serene garden community in Meydan City, a development centering around the Meydan Racecourse, which is known as brainchild of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum. Both projects, and another new residential community in Meydan City, announced by India-based Sobha Group, will make for very posh living some years from now. 

 

Also bearing a message of luxury to this year’s Cityscape Global was Falconcity’s try for a revival of its bigger scheme, the various world monuments, includes a $1 billion Taj Mahal complete with hotel. A new infrastructure expected to see additional luxury property plans being floated was last month’s approval of the AED 1.5 billion ($408 million) extension of the Business Bay Canal by the Dubai government. When it is completed after its scheduled two years of construction, the new urban waterway aims to attract high-end residential and hospitality projects. 

 

Although the new pipeline of luxury developments in the UAE is just taking shape at this stage, aspirational property buyers of today and tomorrow can be assured of one thing: there will always be a supply of new high-end abodes in the dream cities of the Gulf. 

 

 

November 7, 2012 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLuxury in the Gulf

Q&A: Colm McLoughlin – Dubai Duty Free chief

by Nicole Walter November 7, 2012
written by Nicole Walter

 

Business at Dubai Duty Free (DDF) improved again in the first half of 2012 as the aviation world’s single-location uber-retailer reported 11 percent growth in sales from a year earlier. With the same man — Colm McLoughlin, executive vice chairman of DDF — at the helm in since the first day of operations and a corporate narrative approaching legend status, Executive wanted to find out what the venture is up to now. Guess what? More expansions. 

 

Dubai Duty Free has an impressive track record of growth since its inception in 1983. What results do you expect to achieve this year?

In our first full year of business, our sales reached $20 million, which was good. Last year on our anniversary day in December, the daily sales reached $24 million, which is a good indication of how far we have come as an operation. We expect our sales for this year to reach $1.6 billion.

Our staffing levels have obviously grown dramatically over the years and we now have 5,000 employees, including 47 of the original 100 staff that we recruited back in 1983. As myself and George Horan, my deputy and president of Dubai Duty Free, are among those 47, I think that we have done an okay job so far.

 

Have you ever felt concerned that the good times may not last?

I have always been confident that we would continue to grow and do well. Our turnover has doubled six times since operations began and will double again by around 2018. We have had great support from the Government of Dubai and in particular from H.H. Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, president of Dubai Civil Aviation Authority and chairman of Dubai Duty Free. The challenge, and it is a good challenge to have, is to continue to grow our business and ensure that we retain our position as one of the top duty free retailers in the world in terms of our retail offer and our turnover.

 

In this respect what are the next steps that you plan to implement? You are already the world’s top duty free operator, are you aiming for further accolades?

It is important for us to retain our position as one of the top duty free operations in the world both in terms of turnover and our retail operation. It is also important to us to retain our role as a ‘Superbrand’ and we will continue to invest in our marketing strategy for this. In terms of our retail operation, we have great plans in place for expansion over the coming months. The opening of Concourse A in the first quarter of 2013 will provide us with an additional 8,000 square meters (sqm) of retail space, bringing our total retail offer to 26,000 sqm. The new concourse will be dedicated to the Emirates A380 fleet. So, we are busy with getting our retail area fitted out and are finalizing our product categories for that as well as recruiting an additional 1,300 staff in readiness for the opening.

We have also extended automation within our Distribution Centre from 70 percent automation to 90 percent. This will ensure that from a logistics point of view we are well equipped to receive and issue merchandise across all terminals.

 

Chinese travelers are said to be avid spenders on luxury and Russia has been another large source of demand for products at DDF. Are these the customer groups and their interest in luxury where you focus your attention?

Dubai International Airport is a major hub and therefore the mix of nationalities using the airport is huge and it is important that we cater to all groups. The Chinese and Russian travelers are important to us of course, particularly in the luxury goods category, but passengers from the Indian subcontinent and the Middle East are also among our top spenders. It is also important for us to cater to different budgets, we sell over 900,000 kilograms [kg] of nuts for example and over 1 million kg of Nido powdered milk every year, so we have to cater to that customer in exactly the same way as we would a customer purchasing a high-end luxury product.

 

On your 28th anniversary last December you managed to achieve those $24 million in sales that you mentioned earlier; what record do you expect to hit this year?

The $24 million was a great achievement; it means that we sold $1 million dollars worth of goods every hour. We have anecdotal evidence that passengers chose to fly on December 20th in order to avail of the discount and that is fantastic. We would hope to increase last year’s figure by around 10 percent but we will have to see on the day.

 

DDF has substantial commitments to sports sponsorship, of which horse racing is a personal favorite. So taking this example, how much does your horse racing sponsorship contribute to your overall success and what value can you put on your image and brand development? Are you planning new sponsorship deals?

Our overall sponsorship program includes horse racing, tennis, golf, rugby, powerboat racing and basketball, among others and is a key factor in our marketing drive. We began our sponsorship of sporting events back in the mid 1980s so were probably one of the early pioneers of sports marketing. Our aim continues to be building up our brand awareness, drive footfall to our retail operation and raise the profile of Dubai as a leading sports and leisure destination.

The Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships is certainly the biggest event that we sponsor and we actually own the two tournaments on the ATP and WTA tours. The fortnight of tennis results in $325.67 million worth of TV exposure for the event, with $170 million of that focused on the DDF brand. So that is a big investment, which has very clear returns as far as we are concerned.

Horse racing is also a great way for us to fly the flag and our sponsorship of the Dubai World Cup here at Meydan is one of the highlights of our racing calendar. We have worked hard to also build up exposure for our other sponsorships including the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby held in June in Ireland. This year the print media coverage was extensive and the estimated value was around 1.6 million euros ($2.1 million) alone.

We are constantly approached to look at new sponsorship offers, but we cannot be everywhere and we have to turn things down in order to consolidate our existing sponsorships.

 

For a retailer and a duty free specialist at that, it seemed a bit unusual that you last year created a new division to manage hospitality operations located deep within the land-side of the customs barrier and expand these operations through the Jumeirah Creekside Hotel. What drove these decisions and are you hedging plans for more properties?

The Jumeirah Creekside, which opened in July, is a fantastic addition to our Leisure Division, which includes The Irish Village, the Century Village, the Aviation Club and the Dubai Tennis Stadium. The 5-star hotel is located within the same complex in Garhoud which of course is also close to the airport.

It made sense for us to look at building a hotel that would be the official hotel for many of our events, including the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. We have no immediate plans for another property.

 

Perfume, liquor and gold are on your list of top-selling products. Are there products that you feel need working on and what are you doing about it? What percentage of overall sales would you like them to contribute?

There have been significant increases across all major categories including perfumes, liquor and gold. With the new concourse opening next year, we will have the chance to increase our categories and add new brands, which we have been unable to do as a result of space constraints. We think that the fashion and luxury product range can be enhanced and this is being looked at in relation to Concourse A.

November 7, 2012 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLuxury in the Gulf

Halls of decadent splendor

by Nicole Walter November 7, 2012
written by Nicole Walter

Although close to $2 billion worth of luxury items have been sold in the United Arab Emirates this year, looking in the windows of shopping malls today will show that luxury retailers in the UAE have redirected their energy to a more minimalist approach, away from the total opulence that dominated their showrooms in the past.

“Since the onslaught of the recession, wary consumers in the UAE have become more price-conscious and, in turn, many have changed their outlook toward luxury products and have taken on a more Westernized attitude to purchasing habits and started to down trade,” Fflur Roberts, head of luxury goods, at market research firm Euromonitor International, tells Executive.

 

That means that luxury is being tested for its compatibility with new economic realities in the Gulf region. However, this does not mean that luxury sales are faltering in either the UAE or other emerging markets. According to Euromonitor International’s luxury goods research, the UAE currently ranks 21st out of 32 countries covered. 

 

The four highest-ranking countries, United States, Japan, Italy and France take up almost half of value sales, expected to exceed $302 billion this year globally, a year-on-year real-value gain of 4 percent. 

 

Overall, the UAE is an example of the growing importance that emerging economies represent for the luxury goods industry. According to Roberts, manufacturers of luxury this year saw much-needed growth from emerging economies at a time of sluggish Western demand. At the forefront of the spending spree, consumers in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), lavished on luxury in sizeable numbers. While essential goods and middle-class fundamentals top the household buying agenda in these four large economies, luxury sales in the BRIC space increased 4 percent from 2011 and 22 percent when compared with 2007.  

 

When compared with the growth rates in the BRIC countries, however, the UAE’s crème de la crème by far topped the ranks of those who expanded their spending in the past five years. UAE luxury sales have increased by almost 43 percent since 2007, which in real terms equates to an increase of $581 million, according to Euromonitor. The per capita expenditure of luxury buyers in the UAE is a story in itself. The small country, with the help of visitor spending, is ranked eighth globally by that measure.

 

The market still has not exhausted its potential but Dubai’s period of economic worries did not leave it unscathed. The fall in real estate prices led to a 19 percent fall in the UAE’s high net-worth individual population in 2009, Roberts points out. “The luxury market in the UAE has a lot of ground to make up to ensure that it does not slip down the luxury market size rankings any further in the medium-to-long term,” he alerts. 

 

The worry factor should not be too excessive though; luxury sales year-to-date for importers and traders were more akin to sailing the Arabian Gulf on a pleasure yacht than to being tossed around in a dinghy in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season. 

 

 

An ideal region for luxury

 

Luxury retailers in the UAE are on course for a good year, according to Consultants A.T. Kearney. The firm’s recent GRDI report and business issue paper “Global Retail Expansion: Keeps Moving on in the UAE” pointed to the size and importance of the UAE markets for Swiss watches and for premium automobiles, citing examples such as Dubai’s imports of between 800,000 and one million premium watches per year and the UAE’s position as the fourth-biggest market worldwide for motorcar maker Rolls Royce. 

 

When compared with retail malls in large European or North American cities, the first visual impression on the inside of malls in Abu Dhabi and Dubai is that they are teeming with outlets branded by high-end names in jewelry, watches, perfumes, accessories, fashion and the like.   

 

Majid Al Futtaim (MAF), a big regional player in both development and operations of shopping centers, reports that confidence among its retailers has been boosted by rising consumer spending. 

 

As of mid-summer MAF’s three shopping malls in Dubai ­­— Deira City Center, Mirdif City Center and the Mall of the Emirates — have witnessed a 10 percent increase in traffic and 15 percent increase in sales year-to-date. 

 

“Last year alone, Mall of the Emirates welcomed more than 36 million visitors and we anticipate a greater number this year”, MAF’s Senior Director Leasing Fareed Abdelrahman, tells Executive. 

 

Luxury retailers standing at eye-level with the UAE market say that the demand is well segmented and growth rates differ in specific segments of their product offerings but are increasing throughout.

 

In the Emirati market for gold jewelry, the 22-karat product lines are sought by buyers, largely from Asia, who think of gold in terms of weight and investment, according to Anan Fakhreddin, chief executive of jewelry chain Damas, which operates 142 stores in the UAE and about the same number in other Middle Eastern markets.

 

“The 22k segment is very sensitive to price and demand is affected by any sudden price movements, whether up or down,” he says. The purchases of jewelry with 18-karat gold or platinum settings and precious stones, on the other hand are “mostly fashion driven and less of an investment decision,” he explains, adding that annual growth rates in this market segment are 10 to 12 percent.

 

An important factor for the luxury market is demographics. For Damas, the youth of the GCC population is a huge advantage, Fakhreddin says, because “all the buying occasions are still ahead of the people. In other regions, celebration points and buying occasions are more or less in the past.”

 

Correlating it to other world regions, he sees the luxury market in the GCC as increasing in importance because of the support provided to luxury by the troika of “strong economies, strong government spending and high oil prices. For all international players, it is a very important and very stable market, growing steadily.” 

 

 

The ‘A’ Class 

 

Prevalence of wealth cannot be wrong in a market where one wants to sell luxury. And although the inside perception of living in Dubai debunks the false stereotype of ‘rich Arabs’ quite easily, wealth is spreading in measurable ways in the UAE. The highest-grossing income group, earning above $150,000 per year, is expected to rise from 23.1 percent in 2010 to 25.4 percent in 2020, according to Euromonitor’s Roberts.

 

Concurrently, what Roberts calls “the social class ‘A’ consumers” will also get older, advancing from the 35-39 age group into the 40-44 bracket. Such an expanding, middle-age class of affluent consumers with changing luxury needs must be many a high-end retailer’s dream.   

 

And it is not just the wealthy but even more the aspiring social and economic risers who value luxury and are willing to invest in status. This means retailers simply have to make sure to further nurture the ‘label me’ environment pervading in the GCC, Roberts explains.

 

“Brands are regarded as a symbol of social status and success. More than a third of residents in the UAE are likely to purchase a luxury product at least once a year, a proportion that is much higher than in many other markets across the world,” he says. 

 

It also does not hurt one bit that authorities in Dubai have keen awareness of the importance of commerce and have created an entire infrastructure of retail institutions and events, beginning with the Dubai Duty Free phenomenon. To encourage spending, government-backed Dubai Events & Promotions Establishment (DEPE) regularly organizes an expanding events portfolio including the annual Dubai Shopping Festival, Dubai Summer Surprises and most recently Eid in Dubai.

 

These key events in the retail trade calendar have been successful in promoting Dubai as an international shopping destination attracting millions of visitors from around the world, representing a major boost to the economic, retail and tourism industry, MAF’s Abdelrahman points out. 

 

Besides new tourism coming from Russia and China, regional shoppers are also big targets for UAE luxury offerings. “We have seen an increase of visitors from within the GCC — notably from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who are attracted to Dubai’s proximity and broad shopping and entertainment opportunities. These new audiences support our thriving luxury retail offer, and we expect these trends to increase,” Abdelrahman says. 

 

Good to go farther

 

Dubai leads not only the UAE but also the rest of the GCC countries in terms of retail space. “With more developments in the pipeline, the overall retail market is forecast to grow to $26 billion at constant 2011 prices by 2016,” reckons Euromonitor’s Roberts, adding that luxury sellers have adapted to changing customer preferences that emerged since the 2008 global economic crisis. “Luxury retailers in the UAE are therefore stocking more affordable luxury items and classic, timeless luxury pieces to cater to the new customer mentality”, he says. 

 

Indeed, new, if smaller retail space, is spreading in upmarket neighborhoods and these up-and-coming living quarters are sure to include retail of the exclusive kind — not even to mention the one-million square foot (92,903 square meters) expansion announced in February of this year by Dubai Mall, already the world’s largest shopping temple.   

 

According to MAF, its Mall of the Emirates (MoE) has a waiting list of retailers, including luxury brands looking to establish their presence in the region. Take a walk around MoE and the evidence is obvious, the mall enjoys 100 percent occupancy at rental rates on par with current industry standards. 

 

Martin Fabel, Partner and Head of Consumer Industry and Retail Practice at A. T. Kearney Middle East, says the GCC region is evolving at hyper-speed, given that its markets are growing three to four times faster than their more developed peers. 

 

“The GCC’s strong representation in the global index reflects the ongoing opportunities for retailers looking to expand their brands in fast-growing markets. While retail activity here reflects many of the global trends, it also highlights the often regionally concentrated demographic segmentation of the consumer market, the composition of which varies from region to region, demanding a targeted portfolio approach for successful go-to-market strategies,” Dr. Fabel explains. 

 

In a nutshell, while there may be a point in life when luxury ends for the individual, given that the right strategies are adopted by its retailers and major distribution groups in the luxury space, there is no reason whatsoever to suspect that the UAE would ever run out of new luxury offerings.

November 7, 2012 0 comments
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Business

The smoking issue

by Sam Tarling November 7, 2012
written by Sam Tarling
Hundreds of employers and staff from Lebanon's hospitality industry took to the streets on November 7, 2012, to protest the country’s recently imposed smoking ban [Photo: Sam Tarling/Executive]
The protestors blocked Beirut's Sodeco Square, demanding an amendment to the law which they say is killing business [Photo: Sam Tarling/Executive]
The ban has come at a bad time for the hospitality industry, already struggling with a dip in tourism due largely to political instability [Photo: Sam Tarling/Executive]
Traditional shisha bars have been worst hit by the ban. The protesters called for the law to be amended to include an exemption for such outfits [Photo: Sam Tarling/Executive]
Bar and restaurant owners warned that if their calls were unanswered they would boycott the ban, which has been largely adhered to since coming into force in September [Photo: Sam Tarling/Executive]
[Photo: Sam Tarling/Executive]
Protesters carry a coffin emblazoned with the Arabic word for tourism [Photo: Sam Tarling/Executive]
[Photo: Sam Tarling/Executive]
Many hospitality-sector workers showed up to the protest in their uniforms, including staff from the Bayrock Cafe in Rouche [Photo: Sam Tarling/Executive]
[Photo: Sam Tarling/Executive]

 

Protesters take to the streets of Beirut over the country’s new smoking ban.
November 7, 2012 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Gulf growth

by Thomas Schellen November 7, 2012
written by Thomas Schellen

Despite some corporate performance soft spots and pockets of socioeconomic discontent, the Gulf economies are a good bet for investors this year, and into the future. High oil prices conjoined with high levels of oil and gas extraction was the formula that kept national wealth in the Gulf region bubbling in the first nine months of 2012, says new research by financial services multinational, Barclays.

While the probability of an economic union of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the near to midterm is next to nil in her assessment, Barclays’ economist and research director Alia Moubayed is positive on the outlook for the region in 2013, albeit with some caveats for individual countries. “We are largely bearers of good news, because our outlook for the region remains very positive,” Moubayed said. “Our recommendation for investors is basically to remain engaged in the region.”

Its emerging-markets research team expects growth of gross domestic products in the six-member GCC to range from 3.8 to 8.0 percent in 2012 for individual countries and clock in at 5.6 percent for the economic bloc. Although this represents a drop from the 7.2 percent growth in GCC GDP that Barclays cited for 2011, this expectation for 2012 is higher than the bloc’s 5.1 percent growth that was recently forecast by Emirates NBD, according to a report in Gulf News. This endorsement for the region is driven firstly by Barclays’ view, asserting strong global liquidity and general support from central banks for flows of this liquidity into emerging-market assets.

“We are recommending to our investors that they move down the risk spectrum and chase higher yields,” Moubayed said. In this context, the Middle East and North Africa region offers “a good combination of assets where you have strong fundamentals but also high yields, making these assets attractive from a risk-reward perspective.”

A nuanced view on growth

The factors that will determine the economic outlooks and attractiveness of the various investment opportunities around the region are well-established constants that have been the region’s blessings and banes for many years. They are, besides oil prices, government spending, balancing of oil and non-oil economic growth and political risk.

In 2013, GCC-wide GDP growth will slow to 3.9 percent, forecasts Barclays’ latest research publication under Moubayed’s purview, “The GCC Handbook 2012”.  However, the rates and speed of economic development will be quite diverse, creating performance and investment pictures that vary from country to country. In terms of real GDP, Barclays sees Qatar as the growth leader in 2013 with 4.5 percent, followed by Saudi Arabia (4.2), Oman (3.9), Bahrain (3.5), the UAE (3.2) and Kuwait (3.0).

Barclays’ views and forecasts on the GCC and individual member countries differ from the latest World Economic Outlook figures, published last month by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF document, which groups the GCC with the region’s other oil-producing nations, does not provide a GDP forecast for the bloc. For individual countries, the IMF projections for 2013 for real GDP growth in Qatar are higher than those of Barclays but the IMF projections for Kuwait and the UAE are lower than the Barclays forecasts by 1.1 and 0.6 percentage points, which is not insignificant. More interesting than the numerical forecasts, which have the tendency to fade from memory as readily as tea-leaf divinations on love and fortune, are Barclays’ views on how the different GCC countries will handle their strategies and what challenges they will face in managing the constants. 

The oil snake and the non-oil tree

The paradisiacal wealth provided to GCC states by their hydrocarbon exports has long had the downside possibility of choking non-oil economic growth.  The handbook sees the interplay of oil and non-oil economic expansions at the current juncture as determined by a sharp impending drop in hydrocarbons-based growth to less than half a percent year on year in 2013.  
Oil prices are not the problem. According to Barclays’ assessment, 2013 will see an average oil price of $125 per barrel (Brent), up from $113 forecasted for 2012. With Iran largely out of the provider picture, oil market dynamics will be producer friendly.

The recent past provided the GCC with year-on-year hydrocarbon growth rates of 7.4 percent (2011) and an estimated 4.5 percent this year, yet production capacity limitations and relative oil price stability, even at high levels, mean that no growth is on the books for next year.

The resulting challenge will be “to encourage and sustain higher rates of growth in the non-oil sectors in the coming period”, the handbook said, specifically citing the great importance of non-oil growth for reducing unemployment.
The supply and demand balance for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) will next year be “extremely supportive of prices”, said Moubayed. Yet LNG giant Qatar needs, in Barclays’ view, to prepare itself for challenging gas price-plays not in the short term but beyond 2014, as gasification projects in Eastern Med and Australia and other game changers to the price dynamics are throwing their shadows ahead. “In the medium term, supply-demand dynamics in LNG could become more challenging for Qatar,” Moubayed said. 

Big spenders and big cash burners

While public sector spending will continue at significant levels in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and be elevated in Oman and Kuwait, Barclays expects less in the United Arab Emirates, where Moubayed sees significance in Abu Dhabi’s desire to rationalize spending.

This desire appears to be rooted in the early days of the economic crisis a few years back when Abu Dhabi was spending more in terms of share in GDP on stimulus measures than all it’s peers in the Gulf. This stimulus support was directed mainly to the corporate space but as of late, revision of large projects and rationalization of spending in Abu Dhabi may be linked to uncomfortable numbers from the state-affiliated corporate space. 

State-affiliated issuers of corporate bonds in the wealthiest emirate of the UAE are not looking too enticing when one examines their ability to churn out revenues. Over the four years 2008-11, and for five major corporate bond issuers in Abu Dhabi, “we estimate negative cash generation of $62 billion,” the handbook noted. 

Domestic issues that pose challenges in Kuwait and Bahrain have a more political bent. The more it immerses itself in political bickering, the less likely will Kuwait be able to make progress in implementing its development plan and it could also “put some of the gains at risk that the Kuwaitis made recently in terms of improving the cleanup of balance sheets and through improved fiscal discipline they have made to keep better savings for future generations,” Moubayed said.

For Bahrain, she sees a “mixed picture” where recent return to growth is juxtaposed with nervousness over inability to reach political reconciliation. Plus, Barclays’ expectation for a balanced budget in Bahrain was put in question by her visit to Manama last month. “It seems that the budget could be much higher and the deficit not be balanced at all,” she said, with a 3 to 4 percent deficit a possibility.  

The tipping point: political risk

As Moubayed confirmed, geopolitics is the most important element in assessing the Middle East’s differentiated investment potentials with meaningful accuracy. According to her, the impact of geopolitics on the investment climate is twofold. On one hand, the obvious geopolitical risks of the reality have to be weighed in valuation of any investment proposition related to the region. On the other hand, the perception of high risk is anchored deeply in the minds of investors, making this a driver of decisions with a possible propensity to override the very strong economic fundamentals in the GCC that speak for investments in the region.

The complexity of geopolitical risk in the region means that the actual dangers de jour are anything but easy to spot and at the same time, tough to do analytical justice to. “Our view is that the chances for an imminent confrontation have receded considerably, at least in terms of a unilateral attack by Israel on Iran,” Moubayed said. The handbook addresses the possibility of a conflict over Iran’s nuclear program but that is not the full picture. “We have moved beyond this binary approach to geopolitical analysis to a much more complicated web of interrelated risks spanning from Syria to Iran to Iraq,” she elaborated.

For investors, this requires another round of highly nuanced thinking. “As geopolitical risk is likely to come back to haunt us very soon, people will start differentiating among risks between issuers and corporates and banks. This is why we think that, for example, corporate issuers with greater exposure to oil and gas and infrastructure will be more risky. Corporate issuers with greater refinancing needs could also be perceived as riskier, should there be capital flight from the region, or the shying away of capital inflows.”

Peeking at some of the company-level views in the handbook, a notable recommendation in the analysts’ view is Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group (DHCOG), one of the economic crown jewels of Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum. DHCOG is a favorite of the Barclays equity team from a risk/return perspective because of successes in the restructuring of its Dubai Holding parent and its engagement with hospitality, property and trade, sectors that are seen as drivers of Dubai’s growth. Moubayed said, “The whole Dubai corporate space remains our top pick because the triple-B rated corporates are high-yielding at current levels.”

Mall developer Majd Al Futtaim is Barclays’ top pick among BBB-rated corporate issuers in Dubai.

A read through the handbook with a mind to inquire about the more long-term prospects for the GCC, the volume’s depiction of differentiated investment profiles and political approaches makes the idea that the GCC could become a better economic and monetary union in the short term look exceedingly fanciful. When asked about it, the Barclays economist put her optimism on infrastructure as a facilitator, much more than on politics. The GCC-wide infrastructure projects on rail, power grid and road network improvements, she opined, could be “a good entry toward convincing politicians and local constituencies of a stronger economic union between the countries.”

November 7, 2012 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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