Executive Magazine

A Salafist surprise

by Jonathan Wright January 3, 2012

written by Jonathan Wright

There’s nothing like free and fair elections for finding out what people really think, and the big surprise of the Egyptian elections, the first since the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak last February, has been the strong level of public support for the Muslim Salafist movement, the conservatives whose overwhelming priority is to emulate the behavior of the Prophet Muhammad and his seventh century companions. Ironically, most of the outsiders who predicted the Salafist gains were Islamophobic Americans and Europeans who based their expectations on visceral disdain for the judgment of Egyptian voters, rather than on any knowledge of the country. Those closer to the electoral battlefield, on the other hand, including Egyptian political scientists and pundits, expected the Salafists to win only about 10 percent of the vote. After the first of three rounds of voting, the Nour Party alone, the most successful of the Salafist groups, had taken more than 24 percent, in second place behind the Muslim Brotherhood but well ahead of any liberal-secular group. The political scientists have some excuses: psephology, the science of elections, is in its infancy in Egypt and the rest of the Middle East, along with the related sciences of opinion polling and market surveying. Besides, in a society where speaking one’s mind in public could be unwise, whatever polling did take place was liable to misrepresent reality.

Journalists and proto-psephologists have come up with a variety of reasons why the Salafists have proven so unexpectedly popular. One of the most promising lines of enquiry is that the Salafist sympathizers have been there all along, at about the weight suggested in the elections, but they took a tactical decision many years ago not to take part in the political process. Researcher Nathan Field notes that in work he did on television viewing in Egypt in 2008, Salafist stations were clearly drawing higher ratings than any others but no channels existed for this preference to find political expression.

With the collapse of the old regime, the Salafists made a sudden and concerted switch into political activist mode, taking advantage of new networks to meet and discuss topics such as Muslim orthopraxy in everyday life. Anecdotal evidence from individual Salafist voters corroborates this theory, though some of them have said they cooperated with and voted for the Muslim Brotherhood, for want of a better alternative, in previous elections. Salafist voters have also emphasized their personal acquaintanceship with the candidates they favor, suggesting a well-established social nexus at the local level. Another explanation is that politics in Egypt, as in many developing countries, has always been skewed toward the urban elite to the disadvantage of the rural poor, many of whom are illiterate and disengaged from central government. Under the Mubarak regime, the rural poor could easily be persuaded, bribed, coerced or intimidated into voting for the ruling party, but in 2011, with the field wide open and no guidance from authorities, they turned to those they knew and trusted. At some polling stations in the countryside, whole neighborhoods appeared to be voting for the Nour Party, but without any overt regimentation by the party’s operatives. The Salafists’ opponents and detractors have attributed the success of the Nour Party to large injections of Saudi cash, both to run its campaigns and to finance hand-outs of basic foodstuffs to the poor — a common electoral practice by many candidates. Newspapers say the ruling military council has collected details of all foreign payments that might have helped political parties or candidates, but until they release them it is hard to assess the impact. Field’s research quotes Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist close to the Saudi government, as saying the Saudis are not in the business of encouraging other Islamist alternatives, so it is hard to see what they would gain from financing the Egyptian Salafists. Wikileaks evidence, on the other hand, suggests that the Saudi government has spread its largesse quite widely among Arab politicians, to keep them on its side.

The sudden switch from political quietism to a new role as the second largest group in parliament has not been a smooth one. Leading members of the Nour Party have sent enough mixed signals in recent weeks to seriously discredit most political movements in ordinary times — especially on alcohol, tourism, the economy and personal freedoms. But the party has struck a chord that no other group has touched, a chord that many did not even know existed.

JONATHAN WRIGHT is managing editor of Arab Media and Society

January 3, 2012 0 comments

Society

Finance for thought

by Paul Cochrane January 3, 2012

written by Paul Cochrane

In the years since the credit crisis erupted in 2007 there has been a steady flurry of economic and financial books published claiming to tackle the root causes of what some have dubbed ‘The New Great Depression’, offer alternatives to the current financial system or provide warnings of the inherent dangers still facing the world economy. With the beginning of a new year that has dark storm clouds still crackling with lightning and thunder over the global economy, Executive has selected four of the most thought-provoking economic books printed in the past year to prime the reader for the challenges ahead.

Debunking Economics

Revised and Expanded Edition: The Naked Emperor Dethroned?

A book by Steve Keen

‘Debunking Economics’ has been a critical and commercial success since it was published in 2001, largely due to Australian economist Steve Keen’s withering critique of the neo-classical economic theories that have dominated policy since the 1970s. His claims are also given more weight by the fact that he predicted the 2008 financial crisis well in advance.

In a newly revised edition, Keen hammers the point home that mainstream economists, as well as central bankers, deserve no credit for the boom years prior to the crash but should shoulder the blame for the crisis and its aftermath. Through a pioneering explanatory statistical model, Keen argues that classical economic thought has little to contribute to what is known as Reality Economics, which is more cause-and-effect than assumption based. He argues that the near hegemonic adoption of a narrow-minded approach to economics in academia, which is then carried into professional life, is at the core of the problem, with those supposed to be implementing a cure still theoretically blinkered, evident in counterproductive solutions such as bailing out the banks and quantitative easing.

Keen’s historical and economic analysis of what went wrong are worth delving into, yet it is his alternatives that will interest the reader mulling options to get us out of the current maelstrom. He proposes radical changes, such as reducing or wiping out private debt through a widespread amnesty and, heretical though it may sound, the temporary nationalization of the American financial system.

It is doubtful whether Keen’s voice will be heard amid the hullabaloo, particularly as the United States enters an election year; as John Maynard Keynes pertinently remarked in 1935: “The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones.”

The Quest

Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World

A book by Daniel Yergin

Daniel Yergin is renowned for his Pulitzer Prize-winning ‘The Prize’, which charted the rise of the world’s insatiable thirst for black gold as far as the first Gulf War in 1990. ‘The Quest’ picks up where he left off and ventures into the “Great Game” for energy following the break-up of the Soviet Union, the emergence of national oil companies from emerging markets like India and China and the dirty world of oil politics in the twenty-first century. He tackles the effects of the United States’ invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq on energy security and assesses the twisted reasons for the oil price spike between 2004 and 2008. As in ‘The Prize’, ‘The Quest’ shows why understanding the geopolitics of energy is essential to comprehending the world today, and where we may be going next. He discusses how new technologies and high oil prices are making previously untappable oil reserves accessible, although at significant environmental cost. Such ramped up output in the US, Canada and Brazil — each to some 3 million barrels per day by 2020 — could well change the ‘oil world order,’ particularly the West’s problematic reliance on the Middle East, he argues. And while Yergin is no believer in the ‘peak oil’ theory — arguably a flaw in his analysis — this does not stop him discussing at length the need for alternative energy sources, and how potentially disruptive technologies could be game changers in global politics and security.

Poor Economics

A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty

A book by Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo

‘Poor Economics’ focuses not on Wall Street and the problems of the financial markets — the “1 percent” as the Occupy Wall Street protesters have labeled them — but rather the poorest of the world’s poor; not the three billion people that live on less than $2.50 a day but the billion surviving on less than a buck.

The focus is on how the poor respond to aid strategies, based on empirical research in 49 countries carried out over 15 years. What is radical about their work is that Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo draw their findings from actually listening to and understanding the needs and behavior of the poor. Why, for instance, do people buy a TV and go hungry, or prioritize the education of one child over the rest of their offspring?

Moreover, their research is into what has worked in development economics and what has not: micro-finance is not the cure-all it is championed to be and higher rates of literacy and schooling do not necessarily equate to economic development and prosperity. As the inequality gap widens, addressing global poverty is a pressing issue for governments, development agencies and businesses. Banerjee and Duflo tell us where our attention needs to be, and it is no wonder their book won the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award for “the most compelling insight… into modern business issues.”

Currency Wars

The Making of the Next Global Crisis

A book by James Rickards

We are in the early stages of Currency War III, according to veteran financier James Rickards. The first currency war (CW) was between 1921-1936, and CW II took place from 1967, beginning in the lead up to the end of the gold standard in 1970 and culminating in the 1987 stock market crash.

Rickards argues that the United States has instigated CW III through the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy — printing dollars to boost base money supply to get the economy out of recession. But by doing so, “the Fed has effectively declared currency war on the world” and the result is stagflation — stagnant growth and high inflation — and the world going deeper into financial crisis.

According to estimates, the US dollar comprises 61 percent of identified official foreign currency reserves, while the euro represents 26 percent. What happens to the dollar is of prime importance and the trends are worrying. The dollar’s position has declined from 71 percent in 2000, and stands to fall further as American power is challenged, confidence in the greenback weakens and more countries change their reserve currencies, as Russia and others have threatened to do.

Rickards uses possible scenarios — as played out at a Pentagon-organized financial war game — to highlight what a currency war entails and it is eyebrow-raising reading. The end result could be the dollar joining a crowd of multiple reserve currencies (MRCs), although all major currencies have recently devalued in parallel against gold, and in fact MRCs could exacerbate rather than alleviate the currency war. The other alternative is the International Monetary Fund pushes for greater adoption of its “world money”, Special Drawing Rights. The final possibility is the dollar will be “rejuvenated by gold or descend into chaos with both redemptive and terminal possibilities.”

Rickards suggests a return to the gold standard to retain stability, of money backed by something tangible, not paper or digits on a screen. Yet, however this currency war plays out Rickards warns that it “is the most meaningful struggle in the world today — the one struggle that determines the outcome of all others.”

January 3, 2012 0 comments

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Bahrain’s colonial flashback

by Paul Cochrane January 3, 2012

written by Paul Cochrane

It is perhaps a cliché to say history repeats itself, yet this saying seems to have held true over the past year in the Middle East, particularly in Bahrain. Uprisings have happened before, and been successful or crushed through counter-revolutionary forces. But it is in behind-the-scenes developments that there really is a flashback to the past.

Last month, Bahrain appointed two men — a former Miami police chief and John Yates, the former assistant commissioner of London’s Metropolitan Police — to oversee the reformation of the state’s police force, which was found in an independent inquiry to have committed systematic human rights abuses and used torture to crush the 2011 pro-democracy uprising.

By virtue of their nationalities and their countries’ strategic involvement with Bahrain, both former “top cops” are dubious choices. Yet Yates in particular stands out, as he was forced to resign from the Metropolitan Police in the summer over a newspaper phone-hacking scandal. Moreover, his appointment reeks of the colonial past. Britain set up Bahrain’s security force prior to independence in 1971, and the General Directorate of State Security was run from the mid-1970s until 1998 by former British policeman Ian Henderson.

Amnesty International documented widespread torture under Henderson’s leadership, and he forcefully put down protests in the 1970s and early 1990s, earning him the sobriquet “the butcher of Bahrain”. It is the second such nickname for Henderson, who was a senior policeman in British-occupied Kenya in the 1950s, playing a role in the brutal suppression of uprisings and becoming labeled “the butcher of the Mau Mau”. In 1986 he was awarded the title of ‘Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire’ for his services.

Although a Jordanian has headed Bahrain’s security force since Henderson retired, the modus operandi has remained the same, as last year’s events document. Furthermore, Henderson, who still lives in Manama, is believed to have provided advice to the authorities during the crackdown.

While Yates may not be cut from the same colonial cloth as Henderson, his mindset is not radically different. “Bahrain’s police have some big challenges ahead, not dissimilar to those the United Kingdom itself faced only a couple of decades ago,” Yates was quoted as saying in The Daily Telegraph newspaper. But what exactly is Yates referring to? When were there “pro-democracy” uprisings in Britain in the past 20 years? Or any protests suppressed by putting tanks and soldiers on the streets? Perhaps he is referring to the Brixton riots in London in 1980 and 1995, which, in any case, were widely attributed to racist policing methods and high unemployment. Yates appears to have fallen for the official Bahraini line that Iran is primarily to blame for inciting the uprising and the demonstrations had nothing to do with political repression or a minority Sunni monarchy ruling a Shia majority country.

The appointment is also curious when one considers the role of the Metropolitan Police in the riots in London and other English cities last August. A joint study by The Guardian newspaper and the London School of Economics into the causes of the riots published in December, identified “distrust and antipathy toward police as a key driving force.”

Such findings do not brook a great amount of confidence in appointing a senior London cop to overhaul Bahrain’s police force. But then, reforming a police force without reforming Bahrain’s political system, by giving the opposition seats in government and addressing the root causes of the uprising, will not change much either. As Saeed Shahabi, a campaigner with the Bahrain Freedom Movement, said of the appointments: “This is not the first time that foreigners have come from the West to upgrade the security services… The government cannot survive without suppressing freedom of expression; only a democracy can tolerate protest.”

The appointments are therefore just a veneer of reform, with Bahrain too strategically important to the West — especially with rising tensions over Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program and Bahrain’s accommodation of the American Navy’s Fifth Fleet — to allow for substantive democratic change or dissent. By appointing one cop from the former colonial power and another from the current global hegemon, it seems that history really does repeat itself.

PAUL COCHRANE is the Middle East correspondent for International News Services

January 3, 2012 0 comments

Business

Q&A – Karim Makhlouf

by Zak Brophy January 3, 2012

written by Zak Brophy

Gulf Air, Bahrain’s national carrier, was the Arabian peninsula’s original pioneer in aviation, boasting more than six decades of in-the-air experience. However, in recent years it has fallen from profit and the political tumult in Bahrain and across the region has accentuated the nosedive. Executive met with Gulf Air’s Chief Commercial Officer Karim Makhlouf to hear how the airline fell from favor and about its attempts to claw back market share.

Gulf Air has fallen from profit and lost significant market share in recent years. Why?

More and more competition entered the market so customer choice got divided between the airlines, and commercially we were not aggressive or innovative enough in order to introduce quickly to the market the things that the customers need. We have corrected that this year with many new initiatives, with a clear target of winning back the market share to Gulf Air.

What initiatives are being offered to win back your market share?

The new initiatives can be summarized in four areas where we are investing. The first is the Falcon Corporate Plus. Then we re-launched our frequent flyer program, called Falcon Flyer, and we have a new initiative for families called Family First. We are also now investing much more heavily in travel agent incentives.

What customer groups are you targeting with these initiatives?

When looking into the new commercial strategies we defined exactly the different customer segments and they are youth… business and corporate, religious traffic and we defined families as a new and important segment.

Can you expand on the corporate strategy?

It is called Falcon Corporate Plus whereby companies receive special prices and become gold and silver members; there are other features such as complementary upgrade, marketing support, incentive deals and so on. The target is to have 500 deals signed by 2012 and so far we have had 500 deals signed and we have had a good market response from Lebanon. The target here is clear; that we want to increase our market share with the corporate traveler. Companies, especially small and medium ones, can collect [frequent flyer] points with the Falcon Flyer program — that is new.

We have redesigned the Falcon Flyer program with three tiers. Every tier has different advantages besides upgrades, lounge access, baggage access, and obviously the redemption of tickets is the main thing. We are promising that we have the most attractive redemption scheme in the region.

And you said family travelers were a target group?

We really want to position ourselves as the family friendly airline. We are the only airline in the world to offer a sky nanny service and soon we will have this service also in the lounge areas. Also, we are designing kids’ menus and we have kid focused in-flight entertainment systems. We see this as a very attractive target group.

How is Gulf Air developing its routes to take on the regional competition?

We are completely restructuring our network. We aim to avoid the heavy competition of our fast growing neighbors to position ourselves stronger into under-served niche markets. This is why we opened routes to Isfahan in Iran, Addis Ababa, Milan, Geneva, Basra, Kabul, Copenhagen, Nairobi, Rome, Entebbe and we are going to open Juba in March 2012.

E: And how are you developing your regional network?

The target of double daily flights is not just to here in Lebanon but to all regional capitals. This is the difference from Emirates, Qatar Airways or Etihad; we try to make flying a commodity in the region. We think the Gulf and the Middle East will develop like Europe where it is normal for people to commute by flying, so we want to connect the regional capitals on a double daily basis. This is the differentiator, because we are not focusing on long haul to long haul — competing with the European carriers like our neighbors — but we really want to develop here an excellent choice for the people flying throughout the region.

What investments are being made in the fleet to accommodate your new strategy?

We undertook a major investment into the products, so we are refurbishing the whole of the business class compartment with new state of the art seats, which will be ready by the first quarter next year. With Panasonic we have invested in a new-state-of-the art in-flight entertainment system where we are the world’s first airline offering broadband internet, live television and phoning on board.

How about the actual planes in the fleet?

We are in the process of renegotiating our order book. In recent years there were a lot of orders placed with both Boeing and Airbus and we are fine-tuning that. Because we want to develop further the strategy of high frequency regional flying we are going to start flying with narrow bodies, 320s, with an extra tank and a full lie-flat business class to fly to Europe as of next year. We have six extra range A320s coming in next year.

How many jobs have been or are going to be lost as a consequence of the restructuring program?

Staff [numbers] have been reduced by 30 percent in 2010 and we also managed to reduce losses by 30 percent.

Due to political upheavals this year Gulf Air suspended its Beirut routes and is still not flying to Iraq or Iran. How serious an impact has this had on business?

We were hit very hard in March but in the meantime we managed to partly compensate for these losses with new routes, mainly to Europe and Africa. Of course we hope that the flights to Iraq and Iran will be back soon.

I think the Lebanese market is somehow used to the political ups and downs. I think it is also clear that [Gulf Air was not] behind the decisions to suspend flights. I think the customer can very well differentiate between politics and Gulf Air. Obviously we see now the customers are coming back and flying with Gulf Air and that is why we are intending to increase the frequency of our flights for the Lebanese market.

How significant a portion of business is cargo and how does this fit into the overall strategy?

Cargo is integrated into our carriers but we don’t have specific freighters. Cargo business contributes around 25 percent to the revenue of the airline. It is very good ancillary revenue for us which we are developing further. By going toward a narrow body fleet we are focusing on high value cargoes.

With the sector becoming increasingly fractured between traditional carriers and low cost airlines, how is Gulf Air positioning itself?

Low cost doesn’t really work as well in the Arab world as it does in the US or Europe because we don’t have this infrastructure of periphery airports. That is where low cost can benefit from lower costs. So in the Arab world it is very difficult to get those low costs. I think in the Arab world ‘low cost’ is hype, which has more marketing content than real economics behind it. Of course, low cost airlines are competition and we treat them as such, but by offering the right service at the right price, especially in the Arab world, it is easier to maintain the customer loyalty than in, say, Europe, where low cost is spreading very aggressively.

January 3, 2012 0 comments

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Ditching diplomacy in Iran

by Gareth Smith January 3, 2012

written by Gareth Smith

The historical parallels are dismal. Iran’s display of a captured United States Sentinel drone sparked painful memories, both of the shooting down of Gary Powers’ U2 spy plane over the Soviet Union in 1960 and of two American helicopters abandoned in an Iranian desert in 1980 while trying to free US hostages held in the Tehran embassy. Both examples speak of the failure — or abandonment — of diplomacy. At their best, diplomats are better than soldiers at defusing potentially dangerous situations. Hence the freezing of relations between Tehran and London should be seen as a new escalation in tension between Iran and the West.

When students stormed the British embassy in November in protest at new sanctions, their actions were vindictive. “They even slashed the paintings,” a British foreign office employee, formerly based in Iran, told me. “What’s the point of that?” There is one painting I remember from my own visits to the embassy. A British ambassador during the 19th-century refused to take off his boots in the Shah’s presence. “I take off my boots only for the Queen of England,” he insisted. Fortunately, a compromise was drawn up in which the ambassador wore outsize socks over his boots — a story told to me by a more recent ambassador who clearly enjoyed the diplomatic ingenuity.

In our own time, politicians seem set on denying diplomats the space for such initiative. The US Congress is even considering legislation to outlaw any contact with Iranian officials without specific presidential approval, while several leading deputies in Iran applauded the students’ actions in trashing the British embassy.

Back in November, as leaks abounded about the negative content of a looming report on Iran from the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA), Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s foreign minister, used an old Farsi expression, ‘Marg yek bar, shivan yek bar’, meaning: ‘You die once, you are mourned once’. With a background in nuclear physics, the US-educated Salehi is more of a technocrat than a politician. Evidently frustrated, he may have meant that if the IAEA had incriminating evidence of Iran working on nuclear weapons, then it should publish it. I don’t think he meant that if the US and Israel planned to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, then they should go ahead.

In practice, while the IAEA report led to new sanctions from the US, Britain, the European Union and Canada, it was not sufficient for Russia and China to abandon their calls for renewed diplomacy and instead support increased United Nations sanctions. And in Tehran it was seized on — especially after the pre-launch leaks and hype — as proof of the credibility gap between US claims over the nuclear program and the reality of Iran’s peaceful, civil intentions.

As for the new sanctions, the EU added 180 Iranian officials and entities to a list of those whose assets may be seized, but it remains in doubt whether Europe will ban Iranian oil imports. Canada’s new measures, prohibiting exports to Iran’s energy sector and blocking monetary transactions, are largely symbolic. The UK has banned its financial sector from involvement in Iran, significantly raising the costs for British companies trading there.

As ever, the real damage could come from Washington. New energy measures prohibiting any person, US or foreign, from providing support — defined as annual investment of $20 million or more — to Iran’s petrochemical industry, will have limited effect, as existing measures already prohibit American companies from dealing with the Iranian energy sector and give the administration power to bar from the US market any foreign companies that do. But the US Treasury finding that Iran, including its central bank, is a “jurisdiction of primary money laundering concern”, may encourage greater international wariness over dealings with the country.

Washington’s new sanctions, like many existing ones, are extra-territorial, and hence enforcement by the administration against third parties will involve calculation. The Obama administration is being driven by pressures from congressmen and lobbyists vexed over China’s role in Iran.

But how far to go? While the State Department may now identify more Chinese or other foreign companies as engaged in sanctionable conduct in Iran, it remains to be seen whether Washington will completely dump diplomacy in the dust and bar them from the US market.

GARETH SMYTH has reported from around the Middle East for nearly two decades and was formerly the Financial Times correspondent in Tehran

January 3, 2012 0 comments

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John Newland Redwine

by Executive Staff January 3, 2012

written by Executive Staff

John began working with Executive Magazine in 2007, first as a journalist and then later earning his way into the editor’s chair, before amicably departing his post to pursue further career interests in 2009. In his time here John was a standard bearer for professionalism, integrity and quality, imbuing the office with a sense of kinship through his intense loyalty to his colleagues and his dedication to his work.

Many were the nights when the blistering hours of production would stretch into the morning, and as we closed that next month’s issue and walked wearily out of the office John would inevitably find a smile to greet the morning sun. Rare are those who one can count on so thoroughly that they seem among the forces of nature, so devoid of excuses and frailties. Now, some two years since John left Executive, his indelible mark on the organization remains, as do the friendships that were forged.

Accompanying his professional prowess was a rugged outdoorsman, a man of intellect, easy charm and empathy, a husband dedicated to his amazing wife Irina — whose passport-sized photo John would have always near his hand whenever he wrote — and an adoring father to their newborn baby boy, Winston.

It is with profound sadness that we received the tragic news that our dear friend, who had a contagious passion for climbing, had died in an accident in the mountains. Our thoughts, hearts and prayers are with his family and everyone that had the privilege of knowing this exceptional human being.

John, may you rest in peace.

January 3, 2012 0 comments

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Revolutionary roles for Yemen’s women

by Farea al-Muslimi January 3, 2012

written by Farea al-Muslimi

Yemenis, from the deposed dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh to the angry street protesters, can all agree on one thing: Their country’s women have amazed the world with their extraordinary work during the 2011 uprisings. That recognition reached its zenith when the Nobel committee acknowledged the well-known Yemeni activist Tawakul Karman by awarding her the Peace Prize, along with two Liberians.

Since Saleh signed the Gulf Cooperation Council deal in November, which declares that he will step down next February, Yemenis have debated whether the political revolution is complete and what new political freedoms will emerge. Yet while the outcome of the political revolution is still unclear, the cultural one has brighter prospects. Art has emerged on Yemeni streets, scribbled by angry youths, while poets, singers and rappers have had a newfound impact on society. Even in the middle of ‘Change Square’, where Islamists play Quranic and Islamic songs on stage, musicians and rappers are offered the chance to express themselves. This cultural revolution is definitely more promising than the political one, but is it complete yet?

The question is very difficult to answer as it is still too soon to evaluate such a sociological shift, but there can be little doubt that women’s participation has been more significant than ever before. Women’s role in the street protests and their participation in political discussions have raised hopes that they will finally be granted their political and social rights. The spectacle of tribal leaders praising Karman for her bravery when she was awarded the Nobel Prize was something profoundly new in this conservative society. More importantly, when Hooria Mashhoor, a well-known Yemeni woman, was named speaker of the National Transitional Council, before later becoming Minister of Human Rights, many considered it a real shift in Yemen’s culture. The council consists of some very conservative religious and military leaders, many of whom have consistently resisted women’s empowerment on the basis of religion and culture.

Back in April, President Saleh tried to provoke Yemenis into supporting his regime by condemning the mixing of women and men in ‘Change Square’, calling it an anti-Sharia act. Initially the speech caused controversy, with conservative elements wary of the president’s accusations. The television footage of women peacefully protesting changed some attitudes, but it still did not get rid of the old mindset. Later, groups of Yemeni women burned their veils in the streets as a symbolic action to condemn some of the tribes’ support of Saleh. This sent a strong and very symbolic message to the leaders, partly about their political allegiances but also about their continued support of a patriarchal system.

Saleh’s gamble backfired, with the majority of Yemenis realizing it was a political ploy and many claiming the statement insulted the honor of Yemeni women. That has proved a significant moment; in the future politicians will think twice before using the veil of culture as an excuse to prevent women’s emancipation.

However, these positive trends are possibly too good to be true and some hard questions remain unanswered regarding Yemeni women in politics. What percentage of Yemeni women actually live in cities and participated in the revolution? Are the women in the streets reflective of their rural counterparts, who continue to be deprived of their basic rights? Is engaging in politics really the ultimate aim for Yemeni women? While there has been significant improvements in the political empowerment of Yemeni women, is it comprehensive? Not yet and progress can be frustratingly slow. Three women have now been appointed in the transitional cabinet, only one more than the previous government.

The hope is that Yemen’s women, as in many other Arab countries, are entering a new phase, but there have been false dawns before. If you meet a Yemeni man protesting for more freedom, ask him this simple question, “While you say you are in favor of women protesting in the streets would you support your sister doing the same?” Some confirm that they would be, but too many still answer the question with an awkward smile and a red face.

FAREA AL-MUSLIMI is a Yemeni activist and writer for Almasdar

January 3, 2012 0 comments

Economics & Policy

Q&A – Fadi Abboud

by Executive Staff January 1, 2012

written by Executive Staff

As minister of tourism, Fadi Abboud has seen Lebanon through the heyday of visitor arrivals in 2010 to the more barren roads of 2011, as well as the change in government from last year to this. At the helm of one of the most underfunded ministries in the government while overseeing an industry accounting for nearly a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product, Abboud pulled no punches when laying out the challenges for tourism in Lebanon as he sat down for an exclusive one-on-one with Executive.

E Following a fantastic 2010, how bad was 2011 for tourism?
We broke all records in 2010. Some 2.2 million tourists visited Lebanon, with total tourist spending up to an estimated $8 billion. In 2011, I think we will be down by some 300,000 tourists, most of whom come by road. Because of what happened in Syria, we lost roughly some 100,000 Jordanians, 100,000 Iranians and 100,000 Gulf Arabs. However, total spending in 2011 seems up, though I should add that buying residential property is included in tourism spending. What may also play a role is the fact that we are a dollar-based economy, and the euro went down.

E What has been done or what could have been done to counter the negative consequences of the Syrian crisis?
In all honesty, we should have taken some measures much earlier, but we did not do anything to compensate what we lost by road. For example, we could have had planes to Jordan for $50 a flight. Most Iranians only come for 24 to 48 hours, as part of a trip to Syria, and they do not spend much. But I think we could work harder in attracting the some 1.5 million Iranians who visit Turkey. In other words, we should attract more Iranians flying to Lebanon. Generally speaking, we are not taking advantage of what is happening around us. We should grasp the opportunity to, for example, build a civil airport in the Bekaa Valley, or use the existing airport to create a regional hub for so-called low-cost carriers. I just came back from the World Travel Market in London, where I had a word with Monarch, which is one of the smallest low-cost carriers in the world. Still, with 34 jets and a turnover of some $1.3 billion, it is twice the size of MEA (Middle East Airlines). On average, they offer a return ticket from London to Cyprus for some $450. Compare that to flights to Lebanon. Also, open the travel section of the Sunday Times and you can fly anywhere in the world on a package deal. But not to Lebanon. As long as we have a monopoly in Lebanon, or a duopoly between MEA and BMI (British Midland International), which is technically bankrupt, prices will not come down.

E External factors aside, what do you think is the main internal problem facing the Lebanese tourism industry?
I’d say a lack of professionalism. Lebanon is like a mezze. You eat a bit of everything but you never get full. For example, we have a casino, but we are not a gambling destination. Our casino is more like a hospital to treat the locals. We have ski slopes, but are not a skiing destination. Do you know any skiing destination in the world that does not have snow cannons? With all due respect, these days we can no longer rely on God alone. Another problem is that the owners of the separate ski stations do not want to cooperate. Yet to create a true ski destination we need lifts from Faqra all the way to the Cedars and snow cannons. Then, and only then, can we become a ski destination.
Likewise, we are not a Mediterranean destination. We need a coastal resort, where you have all the facilities in one place not to get bored for a few weeks. We are not a serious religious destination, even though we have all the sites in the world and no less than four saints. We are not even a serious destination in terms of nightlife. I’ll be frank, a lot of people come here for prostitution, yet the Emirates have much more to offer. In terms of diving we have the Victoria, the only ship in the world in a vertical position, and underwater archeology at Tyre, yet we are not a diving destination. Even when it comes to hiking, we do not take things seriously. There are a lot of jacks-of-all-trades anywhere in the world, yet people want professionalism. We do not take anything seriously. And that is what I’m trying to change. In Arabic we have a saying ‘you do not drink from a well and throw a stone.’ I am embarrassed to say what we throw in this well. It is not just stones. It is rubbish. Tourism represents 22 percent of our GDP. We should invest in it. You cannot create an industry if you do not promote it.

E Talking about promotion, what happened to the LL5,000 ($3.33) airport tax you suggested in 2010?
It did not happen. It was refused as usual. It was meant to be an extra LL5,000 departure tax, which would have enabled us to promote Lebanon. But the whole 2010 budget was refused, including the extra tax. It was not even debated properly. The Ministry of Finance always emphasizes the unity of the budget, but, personally, I don’t see what a LL5,000 promotion tax has to do with the budget of, say, the CDR (Council for Development and Reconstruction).

E What is the budget of the ministry?
It’s ridiculous. It’s less than $20 million, which includes all wages. It is by far not enough to promote the country. But suppose they give me $30 million, even then I cannot spend them. If I tell the World Travel Market I want to participate and ask if I can pay six months later, they will ask me politely to f*** off. For a stand at a fair you pay up front, regardless of what is the official way of doing things in Lebanon.

E Will attracting more Western tourists be difficult considering travel warnings issued by many Western embassies?
Usually, we are not in the market of mass tourism. We cannot compete really. That does not mean we only want jet setters staying in 5-star hotels in Solidere. I love them, don’t get me wrong, but we cannot only rely on them. Fortunately, most educated people in the West know that these travel warnings are political. For example, why did England not issue a travel ban when earlier this year two young Britons were massacred in [Florida]? Is Beirut more dangerous than Bogota? I feel safer in Beirut with an expensive watch than in London, Paris or any city in the United States. Now, I don’t think these bans and warnings are working, but is it making our life any easier? No, not at all.

E In a few words, how would you describe 2011?
2011 was not as good as 2010, yet it could have been much worse. Overall, certainly seeing what is happening in countries around us, I’m happy.

E What to expect for 2012?
Of course, security is very important, but all things being equal, 2012 could be a good year. But, unfortunately, we are experts in losing opportunities. We have an excellent opportunity to build our position. We are currently one of the safest countries in the region. We should grasp this opportunity.

E What are the main challenges?
Well, regional politics of course. Look, if I were responsible for Israeli security I would have only one thing on my mind: a Shiite-Sunni war. Israel is usually very good at studying our weak points, and that is one of our weak points. Today, with the rise of Sunni fundamentalism everywhere, it is very feasible to instigate such a conflict. And the US would be happy with that, as they need a market to sell their weapons. If this scenario becomes reality, all hell will break loose. Closer to home, we really need to redefine tourism in Lebanon. We really need to become a serious destination for the hiker, the religious tourist, the diver, etc. We really need world-class facilities. In addition, I strongly believe that monopolies, and the sisters and brothers of monopolies, are still controlling the Lebanese economy. This has to stop. I don’t believe that Lebanon should have just one casino, one airport and one port. We have to free the travel market, especially when it comes to flights. If you talk to tourism professionals in Jordan and Egypt, they will tell you that they could only break their records once they broke the travel monopoly. If we don’t free the market, we will never substantially expand.

January 1, 2012 0 comments

Tourism

Fadi Abboud

by Executive Editors December 25, 2011

written by Executive Editors

A s minister of tourism, Fadi Abboud has seen Lebanon through the heyday of visitor arrivals in 2010 to the more barren roads of 2011, as well as the change in government from last year to this. At the helm of one of the most underfunded ministries in the government while overseeing an industry accounting for nearly a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product, Abboud pulled no punches when laying out the challenges for tourism in Lebanon as he sat down for an exclusive one-on-one with Executive.

Following a fantastic 2010, how bad was 2011 for tourism?

We broke all records in 2010. Some 2.2 million tourists visited Lebanon, with total tourist spending up to an estimated $8 billion. In 2011, I think we will be down by some 300,000 tourists, most of whom come by road. Because of what happened in Syria, we lost roughly some 100,000 Jordanians, 100,000 Iranians and 100,000 Gulf Arabs. However, total spending in 2011 seems up, though I should add that buying residential property is included in tourism spending. What may also play a role is the fact that we are a dollar-based economy, and the euro went down.

What has been done or what could have been done to counter the negative consequences of the Syrian crisis?

In all honesty, we should have taken some measures much earlier, but we did not do anything to compensate what we lost by road. For example, we could have had planes to Jordan for $50 a flight. Most Iranians only come for 24 to 48 hours, as part of a trip to Syria, and they do not spend much. But I think we could work harder in attracting the some 1.5 million Iranians who visit Turkey. In other words, we should attract more Iranians flying to Lebanon. Generally speaking, we are not taking advantage of what is happening around us. We should grasp the opportunity to, for example, build a civil airport in the Bekaa Valley, or use the existing airport to create a regional hub for so-called low-cost carriers. I just came back from the World Travel Market in London, where I had a word with Monarch, which is one of the smallest low-cost carriers in the world. Still, with 34 jets and a turnover of some $1.3 billion, it is twice the size of MEA (Middle East Airlines). On average, they offer a return ticket from London to Cyprus for some $450. Compare that to flights to Lebanon. Also, open the travel section of the Sunday Times and you can fly anywhere in the world on a package deal. But not to Lebanon. As long as we have a monopoly in Lebanon, or a duopoly between MEA and BMI (British Midland International), which is technically bankrupt, prices will not come down.

External factors aside, what do you think is the main internal problem facing the Lebanese tourism industry?

I’d say a lack of professionalism. Lebanon is like a mezze. You eat a bit of everything but you never get full. For example, we have a casino, but we are not a gambling destination. Our casino is more like a hospital to treat the locals. We have ski slopes, but are not a skiing destination. Do you know any skiing destination in the world that does not have snow cannons? With all due respect, these days we can no longer rely on God alone. Another problem is that the owners of the separate ski stations do not want to cooperate. Yet to create a true ski destination we need lifts from Faqra all the way to the Cedars and snow cannons. Then, and only then, can we become a ski destination.

Likewise, we are not a Mediterranean destination. We need a coastal resort, where you have all the facilities in one place not to get bored for a few weeks. We are not a serious religious destination, even though we have all the sites in the world and no less than four saints. We are not even a serious destination in terms of nightlife. I’ll be frank, a lot of people come here for prostitution, yet the Emirates have much more to offer. In terms of diving we have the Victoria, the only ship in the world in a vertical position, and underwater archeology at Tyre, yet we are not a diving destination. Even when it comes to hiking, we do not take things seriously. There are a lot of jacks-of-all-trades anywhere in the world, yet people want professionalism. We do not take anything seriously. And that is what I’m trying to change. In Arabic we have a saying ‘you do not drink from a well and throw a stone.’ I am embarrassed to say what we throw in this well. It is not just stones. It is rubbish. Tourism represents 22 percent of our GDP. We should invest in it. You cannot create an industry if you do not promote it.

Talking about promotion, what happened to the LL5,000 ($3.33) airport tax you suggested in 2010?

It did not happen. It was refused as usual. It was meant to be an extra LL5,000 departure tax, which would have enabled us to promote Lebanon. But the whole 2010 budget was refused, including the extra tax. It was not even debated properly. The Ministry of Finance always emphasizes the unity of the budget, but, personally, I don’t see what a LL5,000 promotion tax has to do with the budget of, say, the CDR (Council for Development and Reconstruction).

What is the budget of the ministry?

It’s ridiculous. It’s less than $20 million, which includes all wages. It is by far not enough to promote the country. But suppose they give me $30 million, even then I cannot spend them. If I tell the World Travel Market I want to participate and ask if I can pay six months later, they will ask me politely to f*** off. For a stand at a fair you pay up front, regardless of what is the official way of doing things in Lebanon.

Will attracting more Western tourists be difficult considering travel warnings issued by many Western embassies?

Usually, we are not in the market of mass tourism. We cannot compete really. That does not mean we only want jet setters staying in 5-star hotels in Solidere. I love them, don’t get me wrong, but we cannot only rely on them. Fortunately, most educated people in the West know that these travel warnings are political. For example, why did England not issue a travel ban when earlier this year two young Britons were massacred in [Florida]? Is Beirut more dangerous than Bogota? I feel safer in Beirut with an expensive watch than in London, Paris or any city in the United States. Now, I don’t think these bans and warnings are working, but is it making our life any easier? No, not at all.

In a few words, how would you describe 2011?

2011 was not as good as 2010, yet it could have been much worse. Overall, certainly seeing what is happening in countries around us, I’m happy.

What to expect for 2012?

Of course, security is very important, but all things being equal, 2012 could be a good year. But, unfortunately, we are experts in losing opportunities. We have an excellent opportunity to build our position. We are currently one of the safest countries in the region. We should grasp this opportunity.

What are the main challenges?

Well, regional politics of course. Look, if I were responsible for Israeli security I would have only one thing on my mind: a Shiite-Sunni war. Israel is usually very good at studying our weak points, and that is one of our weak points. Today, with the rise of Sunni fundamentalism everywhere, it is very feasible to instigate such a conflict. And the US would be happy with that, as they need a market to sell their weapons. If this scenario becomes reality, all hell will break loose. Closer to home, we really need to redefine tourism in Lebanon. We really need to become a serious destination for the hiker, the religious tourist, the diver, etc. We really need world-class facilities. In addition, I strongly believe that monopolies, and the sisters and brothers of monopolies, are still controlling the Lebanese economy. This has to stop. I don’t believe that Lebanon should have just one casino, one airport and one port. We have to free the travel market, especially when it comes to flights. If you talk to tourism professionals in Jordan and Egypt, they will tell you that they could only break their records once they broke the travel monopoly. If we don’t free the market, we will never substantially expand.

December 25, 2011 0 comments

Real estate

Business talk

by Executive Editors December 25, 2011

written by Executive Editors

“Beirut is reaching its normal prices, but it’s still undervalued compared to Jordan, Syria and all the countries around us, although not as undervalued as the Metn [area]. The most undervalued area for me is the Mechref area [south of Beirut]; it’s nicer than Rabieh and Faqra, and I think it’s on the way up.”

Capstone Investment Group: Ziad Maalouf, CEO

“We have only seen a slowdown in sales but it has not affected prices of land, which remain high. Expectations of landowners keep increasing despite new realities in the market today. If I were to buy land today in Ashrafieh, I would have to sell at a starting price above $6,000 per square meter, which should not be the case… The owners have to readjust their expectations to market realities. Since 2005, land prices have increased exponentially per year, so they assume that this will continue. But that was when Lebanon was underpriced in the region; it’s not true anymore. Growth of land prices and apartment prices should be around 5 percent per year, if there is any at all.”

Seven Invest Developers: Fawaz Sawaf, Director

“The biggest problem in Ashrafieh is parking. The government is trying to improve roads in Ashrafieh, but it wasn’t originally made for this many cars, if all the buildings come up in the area.”

FFA Real Estate: Mireille Korab Abi Nasr, Head of Sales and Marketing

“While prices have generally risen for the past several years, in 2011 we have noticed a standstill in the market in some areas which has caused some developers to resort to giving discounts to sell their apartments. This is all due to the mismatch between the market needs and the supply. This has been the case especially with large-scale apartments. The market will always correct itself, and this is very healthy in order to regain the balance between supply and demand.”

Ramco Real Estate Services: Karim Makaram, Director

“A couple of years ago, a project would have sold half by the time excavation was complete… The absorption rate would have been 80 percent by the time it was delivered; now it is about 60 percent. But if you’re selling the right size in the right area, there is still demand.”

Benchmark Real Estate: Zina Dajani, Managing Director

“Last year you could get a 5 percent or 10 percent discount at best, if you are a serious buyer, except at the launching of new projects where discounts were more substantial. This year, buyers are expecting around 20 percent and 25 percent discounts and are making counter offers to developers before they accept a deal. Given that the sales momentum has slowed down, these numbers may have been achievable in some projects.”

Prime Consult: Massaad Fares, General Manager

“Clients tend to be more selective; they know what they are looking for… the ones interested in city living tend to require mostly smaller sizes but very sophisticated buildings. Being environmentally friendly is very important [and] tall buildings are becoming more and more interesting as views of the city can be guaranteed, and as you know this is not always available. Environmentally friendly projects and gated communities will be more and more in demand.”

December 25, 2011 0 comments