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Feature

Band-aid budget

by Executive Editors May 27, 2010
written by Executive Editors

Late is better than never, or so the saying goes. Thus, despite whatever flaws the 2010 budget proposal may contain, that Lebanon’s Finance Minister Raya Hassan was able to bring it to the table at all on April 15 — two and a half months past the constitutionally mandated final deadline — should be seen as a positive sign. Should it also pass parliament and be enacted, it would be the first to do so since the budget of 2005, which has been the template for government spending for the last five years.

The finance ministry has described the budget proposal as “ambitious and expansive,” which in some senses, it is. It lays out significant increases in investment expenditure equivalent to 6.1 percent of gross domestic product, according to the finance ministry — though GDP calculations remain more a matter of ‘ball parking’ than precise measurement (see box). There is also a proposed jump in social spending of 24 percent, compared to the 2009 draft budget.

The bulk of the $805 million increase in investment — which the finance ministry points out is a 148 percent increase on the figure proposed in 2009  — will be focused on “the sectors of electricity, road maintenance, and water construction.” However, as 2009 budget spending was never enacted, “it is quite misleading to say that expenditures on projects [will] increase by some 150 percent,” said Marwan Iskandar, economist and managing director of MI Associates.

If the amount proposed in this year’s budget is actually invested, it could relieve some of the stress on Lebanon’s decrepit electricity infrastructure in the medium to long term. Some $255 million dollars will be allocated to building new power plants to produce 700 megawatts (MW), which is intended to cover the deficit between the approximately 1600 MW currently produced and the some 2300 MW the country requires. This constitutes the start of a four-year investment proposal by the finance ministry to spend $1.17 billion on the production and distribution of electricity.

Investments aside, the government will still have to foot the existing electricity bill, which the proposal estimates will cost $1.57 billion, a rise of 27.3 percent on 2009. And since the government does not hedge against future fuel costs — which comprise 94 percent of proposed expenditure on electricity — any future oil prices increases will inflate the burden. The draft budget also lacks any mention of reforming the electricity sector, through switching power generation from fuel oil to the cheaper gas alternative or performing a much needed efficiency overhaul. This is salient in light of the fact that Lebanon currently loses some $1 million for every megawatt produced.

Damn that debt

The largest burden the government continues to shoulder is the public debt, currently at some $51 billion and counting. However, the strategy of swapping short-term debt for long-term debt has worked in the finance ministry’s favor, as debt servicing is slated to be just 1.8 percent higher than 2009, going from $4.27 billion to $4.34 billion (see graph). Members of the ruling parliamentary majority have lauded the achievement; one MP even called it a “miracle.” That said, the sharp decline of debt-to-GDP ratio seen in previous years is slowing to a plateau. Debt-to-GDP ratio dropped from 180 percent in 2006 to 147.98 percent in 2009; this year’s proposed budget has this wavering slightly to 147.47 percent.

Hassan’s ministry stated to the press that the goal was, “maintaining the level of public debt-to-GDP, provided that the growth in public debt does not exceed the actual growth of the economy, while trying to avoid falling into the trap of a primary deficit.”

The fear is very real given that the 14.4 percent proposed rise in expenditure, some $1.87 billion, will push total spending to $13.46 billion. The move has cut the primary surplus — which excludes interest payments on the debt — from $872 million to $18 million. Under the budget proposal, this would increase the actual deficit to $4 billion, or 10.74 percent of GDP, which is estimated at $37.4 billion.

It is important to note that all these calculations are predicated on real GDP growth of 4.5 percent and an inflation rate of 3.7 percent.

Making the money to spend

According to the finance ministry the highest grossing tax measure last year was value added tax (VAT), generating $2.73 billion in revenue. VAT revenue is estimated to rise 8.7 percent this year, indicating an expected increase in domestic consumption.

While a possible increase in VAT had been the topic of debate earlier this year, none was suggested in the budget proposal. Instead, Minister Hassan opted to raise taxes on real estate registration from 5 to 7 percent on properties worth more than $500,000.

Elie Sawma, president of the building promoters federation of Lebanon, told Executive: “Our position is that the ceiling should be raised from $500,000 to $1 million because there is not one [decent] apartment in Beirut that is less than $1 million.”

He added that the minister should also consider raising taxes on non-Lebanese buyers by 3 percent, from the current 5.8 percent, as a “corrective” measure. The tax had previously been 17 percent until the real estate industry succeeded in lobbying former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri to lower it.

Iskandar, however, said he believes there were more “equitable” options the government could have opted for.

“In particular, a tax on profits of real estate trading whereby you can introduce a tax of 25 percent on profits achieved in the first year, falling to 20 percent [the next year,] until by the fifth year there will be no tax,” said Iskandar, adding that such a measure would decrease speculation and drive down “prices of already completed apartments to a point where young people could secure decent housing.”

Real estate’s breakneck growth in recent years should make the increased taxation proposed in the budget relatively uncontroversial when it comes up for parliamentary debate, if only to tap the brakes on a bubble potentially speeding toward bursting point.

There are though, as Iskandar points out, other factors to consider: “This is something that lacks equitable treatment amongst the Lebanese [as] many of the politicians are themselves involved in [real estate].”

“The ceiling should be raised from $500,000 to $1 million because there is not one [decent] apartment in Beirut that is less than $1 million”

Breaking the bank

Minister Hassan also proposed a 2 percent tax hike on bank deposit interest, raising the tariff from 5 percent to 7 percent, which Iskandar estimates will bring in $100 million in additional revenues. Nassib Ghobril, head economist at Byblos Bank, called the deposit tax “totally unnecessary.”

Ghobril said that a 2 percent hike in the deposit tax would bring the government negligibly more revenues at a time when inflows are already increasing naturally due to solid economic growth. According to Ghobril, tax revenues increased by 25 percent and overall revenues increased by 20 percent in 2009.

“But what we are seeing is an increase in expenditures,” he said. “Last year we saw an increase in expenditure of about 14 percent overall. So the problem is not on the revenue side, it is on the expenditure side.”

Though Ghobril said he doesn’t believe that a 2 percent bump will be a deterrent to non-resident deposits, he remarked that “it certainly does not help,” especially when the growth rate of deposits has decreased in the first three months of 2010. What is more important, according to Ghobril, is that the tax hike casts Lebanon in a poor light in terms of its international financial image — a prized and sheltered possession, despite the debt.

An often-suggested and little-employed solution to the lack of discretionary revenue is financing projects through public-private partnership (PPP). It seems like this option is on the minds of many in the finance ministry, as Hassan mentioned it while proposing her budget and the Higher Council for Privatization President Ziad Hayek sent a statement to the press through the finance ministry detailing the difference between a PPP and complete privatization. Still, while PPPs may allow some necessary projects to begin, they would not solve Lebanon’s systemic financial problems.

Tardy to the party

No matter what is in the current budget proposal, it is for the year 2010, of which four months have already passed. This budget still has the constitutional process to pass, meaning it needs cabinet approval, then parliamentary approval, and at both levels it is subject to alterations. MI Associate’s Iskandar estimates that, in the best of all possible worlds, the budget might come into effect in July.

As Executive went to print, the cabinet had yet to approve the proposed budget. In parliament it will also have to face the finance committee, chaired by MP Ibrahim Kaanan, an ardent critic of Lebanon’s current taxation system and a member of the Free Patriotic Movement, rivals to Minister Hassan’s political camp.

So as Simon Neaime, professor and chairperson of the economics department at the American University of Beirut, said: “This is the best that can be done given the current circumstances, [but] overall the budget is only trying to pass time. It’s not tackling the real problems.”

May 27, 2010 0 comments
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Finance

Low interest loans to continue in Lebanon

by Executive Staff May 5, 2010
written by Executive Staff

Lebanese Lira notes Banque du Liban

The interest rate subsidies granted by the central bank to 60 percent of lending sectors in July and September of 2009 have been extended until June 2011. The original circulars lowered the reserve requirements, which Lebanese banks were previously required to keep at the central bank at zero percent interest, allowing banks to lend in Lebanese lira at more attractive rates. The loans subsequently offered brought lira lending rates down from above 9 percent to around 5 percent. The extension will allow banks to maintain these rates on loans processed until June 2011. These interest rate subsidies covered mostly personal loans for cars, homes and education and are an addition to the interest rate subsidies put in effect in 1997, which benefit the industrial, tourism, agriculture and technology sectors of the economy. At end-June 2009, the 1997 interest rate subsidies had resulted in $2.55 billion in new 2009 lending.

May 5, 2010 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Better corporate governance is crucial to regional growth

by John Martin May 4, 2010
written by John Martin

John Martin St Valery is a partner at NxD-global

Over the last 10 years, corporate governance in the MiddleEast has progressed from being a relatively non-existent business practice tobecoming widely accepted as fundamental for attracting foreign investmentinflows and deepening the region’s financial markets.

 It was onlyafter the global financial crisis that Gulf Cooperation Council governmentsstarted to take corporate governance more seriously. We saw new regulations andcodes come into effect, each outlining principles that would bring domestic corporategovernance practices in line with international standards.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentJournal reports that today only three countries out of 17 surveyed in theMiddle East and North Africa region do not have any corporate governance codesin place. While this is certainly a step in the right direction, theimplementation and enforcement of the codes remain questionable.

The Gulf financial markets now have similar standards forcorporate governance throughout, but the extent to which they are fullyimplemented varies greatly in each country. The underlying issue here is one ofcompliance. Only the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia regulate theircorporate governance codes, while other countries operate on a “comply orexplain” basis.

It’s all in the implementation

Managing the regulatory pendulum in emerging markets isnever going to be easy. Widely accepted international practices must be adaptedto suit our domestic markets before the buy-in of regulators, complianceauthorities, business leaders and special interest groups can be achieved. Thisexplains the varying degrees to which the regulatory pendulum swings, with thedirection and angle subject to market, sector or even stakeholder conditions.

For example, most of the corporate governance codes from thevarious GCC financial market authorities stipulate that board composition mustcomprise a majority of board members who are non-executive directors, and thatat least one third of the board members must be independent directors.

In countries where this regulation is enforced, certainsectors or companies are exempt from the provision. In the less regulatedmarkets, the principles of the code are considered when evaluating the qualityof a company’s corporate governance. Companies are encouraged to follow theprovision unless they have good reasons not to and disclose those under the“comply or explain” principle.

These varying levels of enforcement lead us to questionwhether corporate governance guidelines are being adhered to. Is the correctquota of independent or non-executive directors being filled? Are listed boardssplitting the role of chairman and chief executive officer as they are advisedto do and, more importantly, do they understand the benefits of full complianceto their businesses or the wider economy?

The presence of independent representatives on the board,capable of challenging the decisions of management, is widely considered as ameans of protecting the interests of shareholders and, where appropriate, otherstakeholders.

These codes exist for the betterment of individualbusinesses and to improve the overall competitiveness of the regional economy.I would agree with Nasser Saidi, executive director of Hawkamah Institute forCorporate Governance, that the issue here is not one of achieving consensus oncodes and standards. Rather it is an issue of implementation, or lack thereof.The GCC countries need to move more quickly on enforcing these standards. Weneed heavier handed regulatory compliance to affect change.

Good corporate governance is a crucial part ofprivate-sector-led economic growth in the Middle East and it needs to berecognized as a public policy concern. The international competitiveness of theMiddle East economies must rest on a base of firms that do not suffer from costof capital disadvantages, and that adapt sound management and corporategovernance practices to domestic circumstances.

 

 

May 4, 2010 0 comments
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Last Word

Web of truth

by Michael Young May 3, 2010
written by Michael Young

In mid-April, people surfing the Internet were able to witness a gruesome wartime killing. Swedish website Wikileaks posted a graphic videotape of an American Apache helicopter gunning down several men in a Baghdad neighborhood. The story received more than 2 million YouTube views in two days.

The Americans mistook the cameras held by Reuters photographer Namir Noor-Eldeen and his driver, Saeed Chmagh, for weapons and opened fire on the group, believing them to be insurgents. Following the initial assault the Apache also fired on a minivan picking up the wounded, in which two children were sitting. Twelve  people were killed and the children were injured.

The principle of Wikileaks, founded in 2006, is to place leaked information online without comment, but to also have the website team verify that material is correct and, in some cases, prepare after-the-fact reports on stories. Wikileaks is funded by private donors and rejects state or corporate funding.  

An article on Wikileaks appeared in Foreign Policy magazine recently, under the heading, “Is this the future of journalism?” The author, Jonathan Stray, wrote that the “diffuse, international nature of the organization has protected Wikileaks from the fate of other organizations that seek to expose wrongdoing by powerful interests. It prints no paper, but instead stores its articles online in Sweden, where journalists are required by law not to reveal sources. Its domain name… is registered in California, where the American Civil Liberties Union and the Electronic Frontier Foundation intervened when an aggrieved Swiss bank tried shut the site down.”

Is Wikileaks journalism’s future? Stray doesn’t quite say, but he suggests that the website offers a new model for freer media. “Wikileaks’ disregard for gag orders and their unabashed advocacy makes full-throated praise for the organization rare,” he writes. “Yet no journalist I’ve spoken to will speak ill of Wikileaks in private: Every reporter understands that Wikileaks is the thin end of the wedge. If they can’t run a dangerous story, no one can.”

Perhaps Stray is right. But we should place Wikileaks in a broader context of media expansion in the past decade. Unmediated media have thrived in recent years, starting with blogs, but also including Twitter, YouTube, and SMS messages used to disseminate information that governments censor. Wikileaks is a fresh facet of this trend, but, conceptually, it is not a radical departure from YouTube.

Where Wikileaks is interesting is that although it shuns mediation — whether in its funding or dissemination — in many respects it is more reliant on mediation than other new-style media. The United States helicopter attack was made available by someone who had access to a classified videotape, which the Pentagon had refused to release to mainstream outlets under the Freedom of Information Act. Wikileaks is dependent on the agenda of whistleblowers, and unlike more traditional news outlets, its method of posting with minimal comment means it has less latitude to cover itself against manipulation by leakers.

But where Stray’s question is relevant is in terms of the market. The trend in media toward unmediated posting is a phenomenon that is here to stay, because the market, bolstered by new technology, has created a demand for news that stays unfiltered by large institutions, no matter how liberal they might be. If people can read and express unedited views, that erodes the gatekeeper role of traditional media. But it also erodes the capacity of the state and embarrassed institutions to shape how stories come out.  

When Daniel Ellsberg leaked the Pentagon Papers to The New York Times in 1971, he and the newspaper bore the brunt of government wrath and legal retribution. The US government lost. Today, it is even harder, both legally and politically, for governments to silence Wikileaks. 

Anonymous whistleblowers can hide behind such sites, which use the complexity of markets, access to multiple protective legislations and innovative technologies to stay one step ahead of cumbersome bureaucracies trying to conceal inconvenient truths. That doesn’t mean that leaked information isn’t sometimes tendentious, but it does mean that secrets can reach the marketplace before anyone can press a delete button. Malfeasance or brutality may be reduced as a consequence.       

May 3, 2010 0 comments
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Consumer Society

In the Name of God and Country

by Executive Editors May 3, 2010
written by Executive Editors

In February of this year Joseph Andrew Stack, a 53-year-old software engineer, flew a single-engine plane into an office building in Texas. To the shock of many in the Middle East, the White House released a statement in reaction to the attack that said the attack was not terrorism, but an isolated act.

The declaration that this was not a terrorist incident left many in this region bitterly wondering if the White House would have released the same statement if Stack was an Arab and/or a Muslim.

That terrorism is perpetrated by “others,” or often specifically Arabs and Muslims, is an idea commonly held in the West. In America — the leader of the ‘War on Terror’ for the past nine years — this is especially true.

As Michael Fellman, professor of history emeritus at Simon Fraser University, argues in his new book ‘In the Name of God and Country’ — “Americans prefer to see terrorism as external to the ‘American way.’” But as Fellman deftly illustrates, this is far from the historical truth.

In this lively book, Fellman shows how terrorism has in fact been “intrinsic to the formation of modern American society.” To articulate this argument, he takes five cases of terrorism that occurred in 19th century America. Through these cases Fellman develops a convincing argument that terrorism “colored many of the powerful and contradictory qualities of American state formation during its most crucial phase.”

Fellman states in the book that “from the beginning of the American state (and before), terrorism has pervaded American war making, social transformation and political development, obliterating many conventional fine distinctions of morality, including those between combatants and noncombatants.”

In the first example, Fellman takes the abolitionist and terrorist John Brown. A white American, John Brown had “the perfect combination of Christian holy manliness, American revolutionary zeal and abolitionist righteousness.”

The author illustrates how, in his fight against slavery, Brown committed outrageous acts of violence against noncombatants and innocents that caused deep concern even within his own family. But his ghastly acts for his noble cause appeared to work as he spread fear throughout the white pro-slavery South.

While Fellman focuses on terrorism within US history, lessons are also learnt about the nature of terrorism in general. He makes two general distinctions of terrorism, one revolutionary and the other reactionary, engaged in by both non-state and state actors. It is these two types of terrorism that can become locked in a vicious circle.

“Terrorism provokes terrorism in a cyclical and reciprocal manner — the War on Terror as a concept is falsely one-sided.” These sort of carefully thought out conclusions will no doubt win Fellman few friends in mainstream America. Nor will his uncovering of historical lessons that show how “terrorism can best be understood as a shared process that includes ‘us’ not merely as innocent victims but as participants, even if we did not initiate combat.”

Fellman will likely be brushed aside as an apologist for terrorists despite his clear condemnation of terrorism throughout the book. The typical knee jerk reaction to terrorist acts — to condemn rather than seek to understand — means that such a response to a book that attempts to engage the moral complexities of terrorism is to be expected.

This type of reaction, however, is one of the main warnings running through the heart of ‘In the Name of God and Country.’ To successfully combat terrorism, reactionary counterterrorism is not the solution. But as Fellman shows so well, history is sometimes a tragically broken record.

May 3, 2010 0 comments
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Consumer Society

Back on the road

by Executive Editors May 3, 2010
written by Executive Editors

The last time Executive covered the Lebanon Motor Show, we called it a “regular fixture of the Beirut Exhibition Center.” That was 2004. For the next six years, spates of semi-annual violence kept the show in a state of hibernation… until now. This year, the show made a resurgence, and by some estimates, 2010 was its biggest year yet.

“It’s true that today, things are still a bit tense,” said Samir Homsi, president of the Lebanese Auto Association. “But most of the dealers are quite excited to do something for their country, for Lebanon. They have shown courage, and the result has been a huge success.”

The show was held at the Beirut International Exhibition and Leisure Center from April 8 to 18. Glamour, technological innovation, muscle-bound super cars and more ecologically friendly models all found a place during the 10 days of displays, with the biggest names in the business showcasing     their latest offerings.

Heavy-duty equipment, motorcycle, off-road vehicle and emergency vehicle dealerships also took part.

Although official statistics were not available as Executive went to print, Promofair SAL, which organized the event with the Lebanese Association of Car Importers, estimates that between 100,000 and 150,000 people attended the event over the course of its 10-day span.

The event featured models from 30 dealers from the Auto International Association group, as well as close to 80 others from outside of the group. The last auto show received roughly equal attendance but only drew half the number of dealers.

May 3, 2010 0 comments
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Consumer Society

Simulating sophistication

by Executive Editors May 3, 2010
written by Executive Editors

The term “genuine replica,” a favored parlance of counterfeit luxury watchmakers and their advertisers, seems oxymoronic, if not cynical, at first. After all, touting your watch as a “genuine fake” is akin to bragging about a high ‘F’ on an exam — congratulations, you still failed. But it does highlight a disturbing new trend in the counterfeit watch industry: the appearance of a ‘second-tier’ of better crafted, better mechanized replicas that sometimes fool even the experts themselves.

Good times for bad business

While luxury watch makers wilted beneath the heat of the global financial crisis, enduring their worst period since Japanese quartz watches flooded the market in the 1970s, business for their cut-price counterparts boomed.

A 2009 report by the group Business Action to Stop Counterfeiting and Piracy (BASCAP), in conjunction with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), estimated that the global market for all counterfeit goods was worth upwards of $200 billion, with some sources putting the figure even higher.

Countries in the Middle East are no exception, with annual counterfeit trade (all goods) in the region reaching $24.8 billion according to Havocwatch, a non-profit watchdog group that monitors counterfeiting. Profit for illicit markets comes not only at the expense of other legitimate watchmakers, but also impinges on society as a whole through the loss of tax revenues and the cost of counter-piracy policing efforts.

Counterfeit luxury watches are about as old as watch making itself, harking back to a time when counterfeiters would inscribe the names of well-known craftsmen on hand-made pocket watches. The problem has grown exponentially in the past several decades due to, among other factors, the easy availability of reliable movements — the internal mechanism of a watch.

Though a strong alliance of corporations and transnational monitors — including the World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), the International Chamber of Commerce, Interpol and local governments — stepped up their campaigns against illicit goods in recent years, counterfeiters seem to be staying ahead of the game.

“I regret to say that the commerce of counterfeit watches has taken on a new dimension,” says Marc Frisanco, deputy director of intellectual property for the Richemont Group, one of the world’s biggest luxury goods groups. “It’s become more global, more active and its intermediaries have grown more powerful. And this applies to all levels — whether in production, marketing or distribution.”

This makes bustling commercial hubs like Dubai or Abu Dhabi, with simplified customs procedures and huge quantities of imports, particularly susceptible to counterfeit goods. The Fondation de la Haute Horlogerie (FHH) lists the United Arab Emirates, along with the Benelux countries, Singapore and Panama, among the favorite destinations for counterfeiting rings, due more to ease of transit than to regional demand.

Another complicating factor in the fight against counterfeits is the ease with which they proliferate on the Internet, says Frisanco. One site calling itself Hot-Replica.com — a comprehensive, professional-looking webpage — promises free shipping, postal insurance and even secure payment through Paypal, the global Internet payment module. All it takes is $49.99 charged to a credit card and the new fake will appear in a week’s time on your doorstep — with its enclosed warranty.

Profit for illicit markets comes not only at the expense of other legitimate watchmakers, but also impinges on society as a whole

Real fakes

As the counterfeit watch industry increases its global reach, it grows ever more sophisticated. Last year, the FHH launched a comprehensive study of the industry in order to educate the public and crack down on piracy.

The study’s findings describe how new high-end replicas come into being: “Counterfeiters work within well-established networks,” the report reads. “They order the various components that will make up the counterfeit watches (movement, case, strap, dial) from specialist suppliers who use modern, high-tech machines.”

“As soon as the parts are delivered, the counterfeiters add inscriptions, either in their own workshops or through an unscrupulous third party,” it continues.

The use of reliable movements — some replica dealers even claim to employ the same movement systems as the luxury dealers themselves — is an unsettling trend, as are the many stories of high-quality counterfeits passing unnoticed under the eyes of experts.

Yet there are certain qualities that cannot be replicated. No counterfeit, even at the higher end of the price spectrum, can afford the material costs of a genuine luxury watch. Instead, they rely on substitution — stainless steel for silver, synthetic gems for real jewels, and mineral glass for sapphire.

Killing time?

Data compiled in the UAE gives a telling example of the damage counterfeiting can cause to local economies, regional watchmakers and retailers alike. According to an impact study by the Brand Owner’s Protection Group, a group of global brand owners and legal consultants, effective action against counterfeiting would increase non-oil based production in the UAE by 5.95 percent, tax revenues by 3.78 percent and employment levels by 1.85 percent.

Yet the extent of the damage is still debated, even among watchmakers themselves. “While we’re absolutely behind the effort to combat counterfeiting, we don’t consider it a competitive market,” says Jacob Hrayki, regional manager of Dior. “A customer who purchases a counterfeit is not the same customer who purchases a genuine Dior watch. It’s a completely different demographic.”

But by being complacent about protecting their “true brand experience,” luxury watch makers run the risk of their top lines falling victim to what counterfeiters capitalize on stealing —  the brand’s association with a particular lifestyle.

“It is an established fact that counterfeiting can turn customers away from the original product,” said the FHH report. “A brand earns its reputation through continued efforts in production and good relations between the manufacturer and its customers…. When a poor quality imitation appears on the market, customers inevitably lose faith in the original and its brand.”

If apprehended and charged in Lebanon, counterfeiters face fines between $3,000 and $33,000 and up to 36 months in prison

The good, the bad and the professionals

Lebanon is party to international laws and conventions, including the Paris and Berne Conventions, which set out the parameters of counterfeiting. If apprehended and charged in Lebanon, counterfeiters face fines between $3,000 and $33,000 and up to 36 months in prison, according to data provided by Saba&Company, a Middle Eastern intellectual property law firm.

Within the government, an Information Technology and Intellectual Property Rights Law Enforcement Office was established in 2006 as a new section under the jurisdiction of the Internal Security Forces, supervised by the General Prosecutors office. In coordination with customs authorities, this branch is responsible for intercepting counterfeit products within Lebanon and at the border, in addition to prosecuting smugglers.

Yet part of the difficulty authorities and industries face in cracking down on counterfeiters stems from a lack of coherent policy or enforcement at a transnational level. Though Interpol, the WTO, the ICC and countless business alliances have developed a sophisticated system of information sharing, national efforts are generally restricted to their own localities.

Wolf Meier-Ewert, legal affairs officer at the WTO, elaborates: “There is a consensus among developed countries as to what necessary measures to take,” he said, “but other countries — generally, those in which counterfeiting industries have a significant presence — have blocked the measures. They argue that international legislation could target them should their own local enforcement fail to meet its standards.”

Thus cracking down on the copycats remains confined to the purview of state law enforcement agencies; as Richemont’s Frisanco puts it: “Repression is local but counterfeiting is global.” 

With as strong a nation as China producing over 60 percent of the world’s counterfeit goods, according to the FHH, international efforts have little chance of making headway if individual states decide not to cooperate.

The public is its own best defense

That puts the ball squarely in the court of the consumer. “The best way for a customer to ensure that the watch they purchase is genuine is to buy it on-site from a certified retailer,” says Dior’s Hryaki. “Purchasing off the Internet is risky and we discourage our customers from it, but as long as you’re purchasing directly from a high-end shop, there shouldn’t be much to worry about.”

Even so, it never hurts to be vigilant. Here are a few tips to spotting a fake, according to criteria laid out by the Federation of Swiss Watchmakers. High-end replicas generally exhibit a slight looseness of parts, and their casings, made of glass instead of crystal, can be easily scratched.

Though heavier than low-end fakes, these models will still be more light-weight than a genuine luxury watch. And, while they may employ reliable parts, they do not function at anything close to the mechanical precision of a genuine luxury watch.

Is imitation the sincerest form of flattery? Perhaps, but it’s a hard sell to make in terms of the counterfeit watch industry, where the desired end is not appreciation but profit.

May 3, 2010 0 comments
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Consumer Society

Micro machines

by Executive Editors May 3, 2010
written by Executive Editors

The Anthony Bonja Fortress watch has a look to match its name. With a thick steel casing held together by six hefty screws and a weighty leather strap, it’s the kind of timepiece you would want on your wrist when facing down an angry bear or a brutish boss. It exudes an aura of solid self-confidence in a way only $5,000 concentrated in four square centimeters of stainless steel can. But inside, there is an entirely different matter at hand — or in this case, on hand.

As a mechanical watch, the Fortress is powered by a system of gears and springs so delicate and so precise that their dimensions and alignment must be measured to the micrometer. It’s this balance of aesthetic sophistication and technical precision that makes a luxury watch, but Anthony Bonja, like the dozens of Middle Eastern brands offering luxury watch lines, is only responsible for half of the equation.

The company is a jeweler, not a watchmaker. The mechanical aspects of its watches — called the “movements” or “ébauches” — are purchased outside of the region, the fruit of a niche market of specialized producers. 

“To the best of my knowledge, all manufacturing of movements used by Arab luxury watch brands occurs outside of the Middle East,” said Susan Maroua, public relations manager at Tabbah Jewelry. “This structure isn’t unique to the Middle East either — it’s the norm for most of the industry.” Companies that produce their own in-house movements — like Rolex, Zenith and Jaeger LaCoultre — and sell to other private groups “are exceptions,” according to Maroua.

Step by step

The majority of the watch making industry is structured ‘horizontally,’ according to the Fédération de l’Industrie Horlogère Suisse (FH) — the association of Swiss watch makers — meaning that any given watch passes through several companies or technicians, each of whom is responsible for a different step in its development, before it reaches the showroom.

“As a luxury jewelry line, we work in participation with a number of specialists to produce our watches,” explained Stephan de Palmas, regional director for Van Cleef & Arpels in the Middle East. “Our company will develop a concept and send its specifications to one of the manufacturers we work with – Jaeger LaCoultre, for example – which will produce and send us the disassembled movement. The movement is then sent to another specialized technician who adds complications [mechanics that run off the movement] that will, say, cause a couple to meet and kiss on a tiny bridge every twelfth hour, or show the cycles of the moon.”

“Finally, when the watch’s mechanical aspects are fully assembled, it returns to our workshops to be decorated and jeweled, and from there goes to our retailers to be sold,” he said.

Regional markets

On the receiving end, Middle Eastern states are among the top importers of luxury watch movements globally. According to the FH, the United Arab Emirates is the 9th largest importer in the world, with Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Bahrain not far behind.  Taken on a per-capita basis, the Middle East accounts for nearly as many watch sales as some of the world’s largest markets in Japan, Europe or the United States, and the region’s segment seems to be growing.

Middle Eastern markets, along with heavyweights China and India, played a major role in pulling the luxury watch industry out of its 2009 slump, and international retailers are increasing their regional foothold as a result.

“Dior is up this year 6 percent,” said Jacob Hrayki, regional manager for Dior. “I believe retailers are in a more confident position this year, investing better in their stocks and mainly in their strategic brands.”

FH estimates that Swiss watchmakers exported some 2.1 million watches and 35,000 movements, worth a combined $1 billion, to the Middle East in 2009. That constituted a decrease of 22 percent from 2008 sales, which is a testament to the difficulty the industry faced that year. However, sales have picked up sharply in the first months of 2010, with regional sales of Swiss watches and movements increasing by nearly 40 percent in January and February.

As Swiss as cheese with holes in it

Although Japan, Russia and Germany produce and export a portion of the markets’ movements for use in luxury watches, Switzerland is still the industry’s silverback gorilla.

The alpine state exported $12.3 billion worth of watch related products in 2009, while its closest competitor, Hong Kong, achieved sales of only $5.6 billion.

Much of the country’s own industry is dominated by a single company, ETA SA, a wholly owned subsidiary of The Swatch Group, which supplies the movements used by the majority of mid-range luxury watch brands made in the Middle East.

However, that partnership is slated to end in the very near future. In 2003 ETA announced that it would end all sales of movements to makers not allied with the Swatch group by 2006, prompting a panic among smaller makers and driving sales as makers rushed to build up their reserves in anticipation of the closure.

“There was no innovation, no new development, and when I pushed them to start new production, everybody started shouting,” Nicolas Hayek, the chief executive officer of Swatch, said at the time. “I said I was not going to deliver any more of my movements unless they try to do their own production. Otherwise the Swiss watch industry… will go down.”

Following protests by smaller makers, the company was investigated by the Swiss Competition Commission and found guilty of abusing its dominant market position.

During the settlement period, ETA agreed to push its export closure date back to the end of 2010 while engaging in a slower “phasing out” of its movements from the market. By the end of this year, however, Middle Eastern jewelers along with other makers around the world will need to look for new sources to furnish their machinations.

The alpine state exported $12.3 billion worth of watch related products in 2009, while its closest competition, Hong Kong, achieved sales of only $5.6 billion

May 3, 2010 0 comments
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Editorial

Leave us alone

by Yasser Akkaoui May 1, 2010
written by Yasser Akkaoui

Even the piecemeal tax increases contained in the Lebanese Ministry of Finance’s 2010 budget proposal are insulting. The private sector and the expatriate community — the two entities that keep the Lebanese economy alive and the government afloat — can’t help but feel that they’re being forced to give more blood to the leeches of the state and still receive nothing in return.

For example, in some countries taxes on cigarettes help cover healthcare costs. In Lebanon, taxes are what the Ministry of Finance, through the Regie Libanaise du Tabac et Tombacs, uses to pay tobacco farmers for their crop, at times registering up to a 500 percent loss. This is insane.

Such complaints are not just the moaning of the wealthy. This is a reaction to the crude policies of a government that, under pressure from donor nations to get its fiscal house in order, will further burden those who already carry it, instead of attempting to lighten the load through measures that are simple common sense.

Lebanon is neither a classic laissez-faire economy that lets businesses run wild and free — it is too corrupt for that — nor is it a typical welfare state which provides education, healthcare and housing for its citizens. Quite simply, it falls between the two stools and instead of seeking to remedy the failings in its national infrastructure and behave like a mature government, it takes the easy route and taxes those whose economic health is predicated on unfettered economic activity. 

For years now, Lebanon has prided itself on its fiscal wisdom, boasting that it is this prudence that has kept it from ‘pulling’ an Argentina or a Greece. But that our politicians even talk in those comparisons — that yes, we are looking over the cliff, but no, where others have fallen we will keep our balance — is a testament to their fiscal ineptitude.

The private sector cannot be held responsible for this colossal waste. Should government one day become transparent and accountable, and show it has spent the money we already gave wisely and efficiently, then we could talk about, perhaps, paying more into government coffers.    

But that day is a long way off. Until then, quite simply, the private sector should be left well alone. We, the private sector, have kept Lebanon afloat for over 50 years. Let us work; let us employ; let us create; let us spur consumption.

Let us be.

May 1, 2010 0 comments
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Comment

Iraq’s recount stew

by Ranj Alaaldin May 1, 2010
written by Ranj Alaaldin

Iraq continues to be embroiled in its messy post-election coalition building process. Domestic rhetoric and behind-the-scenes dealings have been supplemented with visits to regional neighbors, with every man and group naming their price for compromise and cooperation. As expected, this process will likely take longer than the optimistic one to two-month timeline predicted by Iraqi officials, particularly since Iraq’s electoral commission ordered a manual recount of the votes cast in Baghdad province on April 19.

The recount came after complaints from the incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of the Islamic Dawa Party and his State of Law coalition. Ordered by a special elections court, the recount covers 68 seats in the 325-seat parliament and could alter the final result of the poll; especially since Maliki came a close second behind the victor, Ayad Allawi and his Iraqi National Movement (INM), with 89 seats to Allawi’s 91.

Since the March 7 vote, both the INM and State of Law have been courting smaller political blocs and parties in attempts to garner a majority of seats for the purposes of forming a government. Maliki alleges the electronic system of vote counting was unreliable, and any ruling could have a number of implications.

Firstly, many will ask what difference it makes to Maliki since Iraq’s Supreme Court has ruled that it is the largest post-election parliamentary alliance, rather than the largest vote winner in the election, that can form the next government. But a recount that changes the result in Maliki’s favor gives the prime minister a strengthened hand in his push to retain the premiership and have his State of Law coalition lead the next government.

As the largest bloc, State of Law (and indeed Maliki) would redeem the prestige it lost when INM was declared the largest single bloc after the elections, and in such a position State of Law could be more willing to negotiate with INM; that is, Maliki would rather have Allawi and INM play second-fiddle to him (as runners up) than the other way around. Maliki has also recently witnessed internal problems within Dawa itself, with reports suggesting that specific factions within the grouping oppose another Maliki premiership. A recount in Maliki’s favor constitutes a political boost and may temper the tongues of his critics.

The extent to which the recount ruling will adversely impact Iraq’s political process will depend on Allawi’s own reactions to it. The former Iraqi premier has previously contested the jurisdiction and legitimacy of Iraq’s institutions, such as the supreme court, and it will be interesting to see how his coalition will react to any detrimental outcome the recount may bring. What could be dangerous is any subsequent perception on Iraq’s streets that this is yet another attempt to sideline the Sunni voice in politics by Shiite powers, which dominate post-2003 Iraq’s institutions and domestic affairs.

Allawi has indeed warned of pressure that may be brought to bear upon Iraq’s electoral entities, but there is yet to be any significant suggestion that they have succumbed, given that Iraq’s electoral commission, the Independent Higher Electoral Commission (IHEC), refused Maliki’s earlier calls for a manual, nationwide recount.

The United States will be wishing for stability as it prepares to withdraw all combat troops by the end of August, as part of its wider withdrawal plan (recently confirmed as being on schedule by the top US commander in Iraq General Ray Odierno), which should see the US military out of Iraq by the end of 2011. However, uncertainty may already be proving conducive to terrorism, with a series of bombings claiming more than 80 lives in the past month alone.

Of course, a recount may not change anything or even benefit State of Law. Iraqis may welcome the recount if it actually legitimizes the results, even if it does delay the political process, particularly if they trust the voting process driven by IHEC. Many will, however, be concerned about any changes it provides, since Iraq’s political entities are all too capable of just about everything and anything. Both Maliki and Allawi could contest the outcome if it goes against them; Maliki in particular could push for his earlier calls for a recount in other provinces in addition to Baghdad, while Allawi may continue to call into question any potential wavering of Iraq’s electoral entities.

RANJ ALAALDIN is a scholar on Iraq and is published regularly in The Guardian

May 1, 2010 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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