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Real estate

For your information

by Executive Editors March 27, 2010
written by Executive Editors

Construction growth in 2009

During 2009, real estate and construction indicators in Lebanon increased year-on-year, except the number of construction permits, which fell by 10.8 percent. This drop was due to a massive dip in the last month of the year; until November 2009, the number of construction permits was 5.6 percent higher than the same period in 2008, according to Bank Audi. In December, the number dropped 44.4 percent compared to December 2008.

Jordan expands “decent housing”

Beginning in February, the Ministry of Public Works and Housing in Jordan introduced a new scheme which made it easier for citizens to buy property, under the $7 billion “Decent Housing for Decent Living” initiative launched by King Abdulla bin al-Hussein in 2008. The five-year program aims to provide thousands of housing units for low and limited income Jordanians, civil servants, Jordan armed forces personnel and civil and military retirees, according to The Jordan Times. The scheme includes extending the pay-back period for loans from 20 to 30 years and increasing the maximum age of beneficiaries from 60 to 70 years. Beneficiaries’ monthly repayment installments are expected to be worth some 50 percent of their income.  Minister of Public Works and Housing Mohammed Obeidat said that 4,000 units have already been built with 4,000 units expected to be completed in September.

Mega-project mania

Some $1.8 billion worth of new mega-construction projects were launched in Lebanon during 2009, according to Deutsche Messe Dubai branch, organizer of Domotex Middle East, the international trade fair for carpets and floor coverings in the Middle East and North Africa region. Projects launched include high-end residential and commercial developments, as well as new five-star hotels. Angela Schaschen, the company’s managing director, said that the construction boom had been triggered by healthy demand for property. This subsequently increased demand for interior design solutions, which usually makes up between 15 to 20 percent of a project’s total value.

Cityscape rebrands for a global market

On February 8, Dubai’s Cityscape organizers announced that — after a 50 percent drop in visitor numbers at last year’s show — ‘Cityscape Dubai’ had been renamed ‘Cityscape Global,’ in an effort to attract more real estate businesses and partners from around the world. “In 2009 over 25 percent of registered participants came from outside of the UAE… we hope to reach 50-50 distribution over the next two years,” said Rohan Marwaha, managing director of Cityscape. However, analysts told Maktoob business that it was questionable whether Cityscape Global will fare better in October this year.  “To make it global is not a bad concept,” said Chet Riley, an analyst with Nomura Securities, “but [the question] is whether or not people will travel to Dubai. Given what happened with Dubai World and Nakheel…I’m not sure it will work.”

Premium rates for Lebanese office space

Office space in Beirut ranks as the 31st most expensive in the world and 4th most expensive among 10 cities in the Middle East and North African Region, according to 2010 survey issued by Cushman & Wakefield, a global commercial real estate brokerage and consultantancy. In the 2009 rankings, Beirut was the 32nd most expensive in the world and the fourth in the region. Beirut’s prices fall below Warsaw, Copenhagen and Vienna, and are more expensive than Damascus, Istanbul and Vancouver. The survey studied 202 office locations in 63 different countries and evaluated the occupancy costs, which include rent, municipal tax, service charges and value added tax. The study showed that the average cost of office space in Beirut was $516 per square meter in 2009, lower than the global average of $590 per square meter. The average rent in Arab cities is $600 per square meter.

UNRWA in the red

Filippo Grandi, commissioner general of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) told AFP last month that the agency has so far received only $120 million out of the $450 million it appealed for in order to rebuild the Nahr el-Bared Palestinian refugee camp in the North of Lebanon. Much of the camp was damaged or destroyed in fighting between the Lebanese army and the Fatah Al Islam group in 2007. “The money we have right now covers the reconstruction of only three of eight camp sections destroyed,” he told the news service. “We also need relief funds for the basic needs of the camp residents urgently. What we have now will run dry by May or June,” he added. Some 12 to 15 percent of UNRWA’s $600 million budget goes to Lebanon’s 12 Palestinian camps, home to some 400,000 refugees, according to the agency’s figures. In general, UNRWA is $100,000 million short of its budget for 2010, said Grandi.

Egypt’s largest museum

The Egyptian Ministry of Culture’s Supreme Council of Antiquities signed a five-year, $50 million joint venture with Hill International and EHAF Consulting Engineers in February, to offer management services during the construction and design of the $550 million Grand Egyptian Museum, according Emirates Business 24|7. The Museum, due to be completed in 2012, will be the largest Pharaonic museum in the world, and is expected to attract some five million visitors annually. It will encompass a total built up area of 120,000 square meters and include some 100,000 artifacts. It is designed by Heneghan Peng Architects, Ove Arup and Buro Happold, among others. Some $300 million will be financed through loans from Japanese banks, while the rest will be financed by the Supreme Council of Antiquities, donations and international funds.  

Homes but no lift at the Burj Khalifa

The world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa, will welcome its first tenants soon, as the owner, Emaar Properties – Dubai’s biggest real estate developer – announced the handover of 900 apartments and the corporate suites will begin in March. Last month the developer began an orientation program for the homeowners of the 144 Armani residencies – the first of the apartments to be handed over – although the interior of the units is still in their final stage. “The handover program can take anywhere from two to six months,” said an Emaar statement. Emaar stated that the Armani hotel is supposed to be launched on March 18. Also last month, power problems forced Burj Khalifa to temporarily shut its observation deck after dozens of visitors were trapped on the 124th floor and weren’t able to go down when smoke started coming out the elevator. The company did not disclose the reason why the observation deck was closed and announced that it was due to “maintenance and upgrade,” reported Maktoob Business. Guests who have already purchased tickets were able to either get a refund or book another date.

March 27, 2010 0 comments
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Banking & Finance

Money matters bulletin

by Executive Editors March 27, 2010
written by Executive Editors

Regional stock market indices

Regional currency rates

Syria to build oil refinery and Damascus metro

Syria has completed preliminary steps toward implementing an estimated $3.5 billion refinery project. According to the Syrian Arab News Agency, the refinery is a joint venture between Malaysia’s Al Bukhari Group and the governments of Syria, Iran and Venezuela. The plant, located in the Al Farkalas region east of Homs, will have a processing capacity of 140,000 barrels of crude oil per day. The Syrian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources said the ministry planned to produce some 2 billion barrels of oil from 2009 to 2025 and provide around 160 billion cubic meters of clean gas to consumers in the electricity, transport, industry and petroleum sectors. In other news, Damascus is planning to construct a four line metro system. The “green line” will be the first project implemented, at a cost of $1.35 billion, extending from Al Moaddamia area in the Damascus countryside to Al Qaboun. The 16.5km long railway will include 17 stations. The European Investment Bank (EIB) expressed its interest in funding the green line project with a loan of $540 million.

ADCO’s oilfield expansion

The Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Oil Operations (ADCO), the United Arab Emirates’ biggest oil supplier, awarded a $683 million contract to state-owned National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC) in order to expand the Bab oilfield’s  production. The field holds more than 500 million barrels of proven oil reserves and has a current production capacity of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd). The contract is to be executed in 30 months and aims to increase the company’s production capacity by 14 percent to 1.8 million bpd in 2017, from a current 1.4 million bpd. The deal is part of ADCO’s plan to award some $1.8 billion worth of engineering procurement and construction contracts in 2010. In 2009 ADCO also signed $3.5 billion worth of deals to develop its Shah, Asab and Sahil oilfields.

Qatar’s 2009 deflation and strong growth

Qatar is expected to realize high economic growth rates in 2010 as the government expands its spending on infrastructure, with inflation remaining subdued. Qatar had experienced a deflation (decline in prices) rate of 4.9 percent in 2009, after registering a record inflation of 15 percent in 2008. This deflation is mainly due to falling real estate prices caused by an oversupply of housing units, resulting in the drop of rental prices by 12 percent. Government action in controlling rising food prices is also another factor behind the deflation; prices for food, beverages and tobacco rose only 1.3 percent in 2009, compared to a 20 percent surge in 2008.

The government forecasts low inflation throughout 2010, within a range of 2 to 5 percent. Real economic growth in the fiscal year 2009 was estimated at 9 percent, and may reach 18.5 percent this year. This seems reasonable since the government’s planned infrastructure spending boost will last for the two coming years. Qatar’s banking loans volume is also expected to rise between 15 and 20 percent in 2010 and 2011. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani said liquidity in Qatar’s banking system was “very reassuring” and there was nearly no unemployment among nationals.

March 27, 2010 0 comments
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Banking & Finance

François Bassil

by Executive Editors March 27, 2010
written by Executive Editors

Francois S. Bassil is chairman and general manager of Byblos Bank. Given how Lebanese banks survived the financial crisis virtually unscathed, Executive presented Bassil with some questions about the Lebanese banking sector and his expectations for the country’s financial future.

  • What are your expectations for the Lebanese banking sector in 2010?

One of the key priorities for this year will be to increasingly focus on risk management. The credit crisis has revealed glaring gaps in risk management, as banks around the world learned to their peril, that the underestimation of liquidity created severe systemic risk. Commercial banks in Lebanon have a fiduciary responsibility to conserve capital, safeguard deposits and minimize depositors’ risk.

The crisis has clearly reflected the fact that the size of financial institutions is not the most relevant criteria; some of the largest global commercial and investment banks aggressively expanded their balance sheets at the expense of proper risk management, with ensuing disastrous results.

The larger Lebanese banks are likely to increasingly focus on risk management, internal audit, corporate governance and transparency, rather than on the aggressive expansion of their balance sheets. 

Another trend is the cautious resumption of regional expansion. The global crisis led banks to take a “wait-and-see” approach by consolidating their positions and assessing their exposure in the markets where they were already present. This applied to operational expansion as well as to credit portfolios, as banks generally favored liquidity over expanding their balance sheets during that period. But with global and regional conditions stabilizing, and with Lebanese banks emerging largely unscathed from the crisis, banks continued to lend abroad. However, most of them followed a more cautious approach, while resuming their operational expansion in existing markets.

  • In 2008, you told Executive that Lebanon had missed several opportunities to improve the investment climate and the business environment in the country, especially in the arena of reducing the public debt. Do you still believe that this is true?

The Lebanese economy has proven that it can compete regionally, but the country has wasted too much time and too many opportunities to implement much needed reforms that would support the economy’s competitiveness and its private sector. It is very important to keep in mind that Lebanon needs to continuously improve its investment climate and business environment, as Arab economies are fiercely competing among each other to attract capital, tourists, foreign direct investment, multi-nationals, technology and talent. A basic condition for the economy to attract capital, tourists and multinationals is long-term political stability and security. Further, the implementation of reforms to improve the business environment and the investment climate would be of great support.

Lebanon still ranks 108th globally and 12th in the region on the Ease of Doing Business [survey], and comes in 89th globally and in 9th in the [Middle East and North Africa] region on the Index of Economic Freedom. This is why the Lebanese banking sector urges authorities to place financial and economic issues as their priority and let political decisions serve these priorities. Further, the economy’s competitiveness can be boosted significantly by reducing the fiscal deficit and the public debt, which are still very high, despite the decline of the size of the debt relative to the size of the economy. Therefore, liberalizing the telecommunications sector and the introduction of competition, privatizing the mobile phone licenses, as well as restructuring Electricité du Liban [Lebanon’s state owned electricity company] are measures that would definitely help reduce the fiscal deficit and the public debt, as well as reduce the cost of doing business, and would help create jobs and attract investments.

  • How important is debt reduction for Lebanon’s fiscal health?

The fiscal deficit reached $2.6 billion in the first 11 months of 2009, equivalent to 25 percent of total budget and treasury expenditures. Debt servicing increased by 13 percent year-on-year to $3.4 billion, accounting for 33.2 percent of total expenditures and for 44.2 percent of budgetary spending. It absorbed 44.4 percent of overall revenues and 47 percent of budgetary receipts. As a result, Lebanon’s gross public debt reached $50.5 billion at the end of November 2009, constituting an increase of 7.3 percent from the end of 2008. The public debt-to-[gross domestic product] ratio declined from 180 percent of GDP at the end of 2006 to about 151 percent of GDP at the end of 2009 – still one of the highest such ratios in the world. But this decline is deceiving, as it was caused by the growth in the GDP rather than by any decline in the nominal size of the debt. So the public finance vulnerabilities remain and need to be addressed by effectively reducing the government’s borrowing needs.

Ratings agencies upgraded the country’s sovereign ratings in 2009, when many sovereigns in emerging markets were being downgraded. That was because Lebanon’s public finances had, ov-er recent years,  shown themselves to be remarkably resistant to serious political and economic shocks.

However, this is hardly comforting, as the rating agencies have converged to warn that the authorities need to implement structural reforms to reduce the fiscal deficit and the public debt. This is another way to say that the authorities have successfully managed the public debt but have failed so far to reduce its size. A decline in the government’s borrowing needs would encourage rating agencies to upgrade Lebanon’s ratings. In turn, this would help reduce interest rates on future government borrowing. When this happens, interest rates in the economy would start to decline substantially, therefore reducing the cost of funds on banks and businesses. So reducing the fiscal deficit is very important, as it constitutes the first step toward reducing interest rates and the cost of funds for the private sector in Lebanon.

  • What will your goals be for 2010 and how will global operating conditions differ from those of 2009?

The primary objective of Byblos Bank has always been and will always be to maintain the confidence of our depositors, clients, shareholders and other stakeholders. The New Year has started with steps in this direction. Indeed, Byblos Bank’s board of directors recently approved a $250 million capital increase to be implemented before the end of June. In parallel, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) [the private sector arm of the World Bank], agreed to invest $100 million in Byblos Bank and will have an 8 percent stake. The capital increase and IFC’s participation fall within Byblos Bank’s strategy of gradual expansion in emerging markets. Byblos Bank’s objective is to diversify its assets and sources of income by expanding in selective emerging markets with strong economic growth and low levels of bank penetration. It aims to have a minimum of 40 percent of its assets and income from international activities in the coming few years.

Currently, the Byblos Bank Group operates in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, Nigeria and Armenia, as well as in Belgium, France, the United Kingdom and Cyprus, and has one of the largest corresponding banking networks in the sector.

The substantial participation of the IFC in the bank’s capital demonstrates that Lebanese institutions with sound and conservative management, and with a clear vision, remain attractive to international institutional investors.

It is the largest investment by the IFC in the Lebanese economy and one of the largest IFC investments in the Arab banking sector. It also reflects the increased focus of investors on transparency, governance, risk management and internal controls, in addition to high solvency and profitability ratios.

March 27, 2010 0 comments
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Banking & Finance

For your information

by Executive Editors March 27, 2010
written by Executive Editors

Byblos seeks extra $250 million

After obtaining shareholder approval on February 19, Byblos Bank is set to proceed with a $250 million capital increase, to be completed by the end of June. The bank expects the hike to come from common and priority shareholders primarily, with some capital coming from holders of global depository receipts. The bank said the goal of the increase was to help expand its services in emerging markets and to be better able to lend to small and medium-sized projects. Also contributing to the capital hike was Byblos Invest Holdings’ sale of $47.62 million of Byblos shares to the International Finance Corp. (IFC), concluded at the final price of $100 million. After the capital increase, the IFC will own 8 percent of Byblos Bank.

Mikati buys Audi stake

Members of the Mikati family confirmed to Bloomberg on February 3 that M1 Group, the family’s holding company, bought 50 percent of the $913 million of Bank Audi shares that EFG-Hermes sold in January. Azmi Mikati told media that M1 paid $450 million for half of the 21.95 percent stake that EFG offered up for sale. Bank Audi holds “great potential and is the leading financial institution in Lebanon growing at a very rapid pace. It has the potential to further expand in the region,” said M1 chief executive officer Azmi Mikati. The other half of EFG’s stake went to individuals already owning stock in the bank, as well as a number of unspecified parties, though none own more than 5 percent of Bank Audi, according to a January 18 filing with the Beirut Stock Exchange.  Lebanon’s Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh said in a January 20 interview that the central bank had aided in the sale. “The main element for us was stability in the banking sector and its reputation, because we don’t want foreign investors to be stuck in any investment in Lebanon,” he said.  Salameh has not commented on the claims made by Al Akhbar newspaper that the Central Bank bought $154 million in shares of Bank Audi in January. His reasoning was that the central bank is not legally permitted to discuss the activities of its clients, and all banks in Lebanon are its clients, said Salameh.

Armed thieves bust Beirut bank for $200,0000

Four gunmen robbed a Beirut bank of more than $200,000 on February 20. “Four masked, armed men entered the First National Bank in Jnah in broad daylight on Saturday and managed to steal an as yet unspecified amount of money by threatening the manager and staff at gunpoint,” a police officer told AFP. According to the officer, no one was harmed in the robbery and security forces subsequently sealed the area to question witnesses. The state-owned National News agency reported that the robbers stole the equivalent of $200,000 in Lebanese lira. The police officer, who declined to be named, also mentioned that bank robberies in Lebanon are rare.

Lebanese banks in the rankings

Lebanon’s two largest banks, BLOM Bank and Bank Audi, have made it into The Banker magazine’s top 500 banking brands list, released in February.  “One of the side effects of the financial crisis is that it has woken up banks to the importance of their brand,” the magazine said of the importance of branding in today’s volatile banking environment. The magazine also noted that emerging markets such as Lebanon continue to increase their strength in the world of branding. BLOM Bank was given 414th place out of the 500 top banking brands, and Bank Audi came in 422nd place. Both the banks were given a brand rating of “A,” signifying a strong brand according to The Banker’s brand ratings definitions. Of the 500 banks listed, 37 were from Arab countries. Emirates NBD received the highest ranking of all of the regional banks with a brand rating of “AA-,” or very strong. Four gunmen robbed a Beirut bank of more than $200,000 on February 20. “Four masked, armed men entered the First National Bank in Jnah in broad daylight on Saturday and managed to steal an as yet unspecified amount of money by threatening the manager and staff at gunpoint,” a police officer told AFP. According to the officer, no one was harmed in the robbery and security forces subsequently sealed the area to question witnesses. The state-owned National News agency reported that the robbers stole the equivalent of $200,000 in Lebanese lira. The police officer, who declined to be named, also mentioned that bank robberies in Lebanon are rare.

F.N.B. grows into group

First National Bank (FNB) announced the formation of FNB Group on February 17, resulting from the acquisition of Capital Finance Company (CFC) and Middle East Capital Group (MECG) by the Lebanese bank. “Our choice to own CFC and MECG was based on a future vision and market needs,” said Rami Nemer, general manager and chairman of the board of directors of FNB. “Such [an] operation helped us strengthen our existence in the retail lending sector through CFC and in the investment management sector through MECG.”  CFC, which specializes in retail loans, cost FNB $60 million, or $1.65 per share when the acquisition finalized on February 12.  MECG, an investment firm, was sold to FNB almost one year ago.

Saad and Al Gosaibi creditors’ 60-cent dollar

The chairman of the Union of Arab Banks said he believed that lenders would be able to collect 60 percent of the funds lent to the debt-ridden investment conglomerates Saad Group and Ahmad Hamad Al Gosaibi Bros. and Co. “Saad and Al Gosaibi are now behind the banking sector,” said Chairman Adnan Yousif to Zawya Dow Jones on February 22. The Saad and Al Gosaibi defaults left their lenders with $20 billion in exposure, most of which is assumed to belong to Middle East institutions. Though no official strategy for repayment to creditors has been reached, the chairman said that banks have adequately prepared for the losses. “Most banks have created good provisions for them,” he said. At the same time, Yousif downplayed regional exposure to Dubai World’s $22 billion in yet-to-be restructured debt, saying, “I don’t think these borrowers have a default problem, just a cash flow squeeze and they will overcome it.” John Tofarides, a Moody’s financial institution group analyst, said that collecting 60 cents on the dollar of Dubai World’s debt “would hurt profits, but not jeopardize solvency.” The ratings service estimates that United Arab Emirates banks are owed $15 billion by Dubai World, though few have disclosed their exposure.

Jordan offers interest lifeline

The Central Bank of Jordan cut three key interest rates by 50 basis points, effective February 21, to stimulate the country’s wavering economy. The cuts lowered the discount rate to 4.75 percent, the repo rate to 4.5 percent and the overnight window rate to 2.5 percent in what is the fifth round of interest rate cuts since November 2008.  New resident private sector lending has slowed to a virtual halt with only 1.3 percent year-on-year growth at the end of 2009. The lowered rates are intended to restart lending in this stagnated market. Resident private sector deposits however, showed an increase of 13.7 percent year-on-year at the end of 2009, totaling $22.87 billion.

Libya opens to foreign accounts

The Central Bank of Libya issued a statement on February 16 inviting foreign banks to apply for permission to open subsidiaries in the country. Formerly an internationally isolated economy, Libya has been slowly opening to the outside world.  The deadline for applications will be the end of March. Banks wishing to open subsidiaries in Libya are required to have $2 billion in capital and a Moody’s rating of Baa2, or a BBB rating from Standard and Poor’s or Fitch. These subsidiaries must be 51 percent owned by Libyan investors, but management and control would go to the participating foreign banks. “An important part of Libya’s financial sector reform strategy is to allow foreign banks to operate in the country,” said the statement.

March 27, 2010 0 comments
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Feature

“Green gold” goes to waste

by Executive Editors March 12, 2010
written by Executive Editors

If Lebanon used its natural resources to its advantage, oil could be one of its main crude exports — olive oil, that is.

With the ideal climate for olive growing and a large expatriate community that prefers bottles of oil from home, Lebanon has the potential to stake a claim alongside gourmet olive producing countries such as France, Greece and Italy.

“There have been many attempts at export but it is fair to say that for the most part, Lebanese olive oil is underappreciated abroad and has yet to attract global consumers,” says Sabina Mahfoud, author of “Green Gold — The Story of Lebanese Olive Oil.”

“If it’s well packed, pressed and bottled, Lebanese olive oil is some of the best in the world,” insists Tony Maroun, general manager of Atyab (parent company to Boulos, Al-Baraka, Family and Virgo olive oils), which has half of the market share of branded olive oil in Lebanon. Even with his company’s success, Maroun still thinks the entire industry could do better. He suggests, “Lebanon should have a national campaign. The government should have advertisements [and] international exhibitions for Lebanese olive oil.”

Poor practice, poor production

Until now, the country’s olive oil industry, estimated at $72 million per year, has been characterized by inconsistent harvest seasons, outdated technology and production methods, poor marketing and a lack of standard quality control. In addition, rural migration to Beirut has left countless olive groves abandoned.

Lebanon produces between 5,000 and 15,000 tons of olive oil annually, with last year’s harvest, running from October to November, being at the smaller end of this spectrum. The large discrepancy year-to-year is due to a belief long-held by many farmers that olive trees don’t need to be pruned, irrigated or fertilized. They are traditionally considered naturally sustaining trees that need no care. Currently, more than 90 percent of olive groves in Lebanon are rain-fed. However, many experts contend that the best way to ensure consistent crops, and therefore reliable exports, is regular irrigation and pruning.

“The more you take care of the olive tree, the more it will take care of you,” says olive producer Youssef Fares, a fifth-generation olive grower from Koura, Lebanon’s top olive-producing area.

When the harvest is low, it is not uncommon for Lebanese producers to import oil from neighboring countries and label the bottle as “Lebanese” when selling it to foreign markets. Although the practice is relatively common, some producers worry this could affect the reputation of Lebanese olive oil.

“If it’s not a good season, Lebanese producers buy from Syria and Spain. That’s business,” says Bshara Shaker, an olive oil producer in the town of Aqtanit in the Bekaa Valley.

Shaker blames Lebanese olive farmers for the country’s inconsistent olive oil seasons, and thus the reliance on foreign olive oil. “Some farmers don’t work the right way to make their olive season big,” Shaker says. “If you go to Spain, Syria or Greece, you see the difference. You need to start at the grove, and prune and irrigate.”

All producers interviewed for this article denied using foreign olive oil.

Regardless of all the challenges the industry faces, Lebanese producers and consumers both consistently claim that Lebanon has the best quality olives in the world. In a country where foreign products are generally preferred over domestic ones, olive oil is the exception. Many people claim that olive oil from their village is the best and shun buying commercial brands from supermarkets.

There are approximately 100,000 olive farmers in Lebanon; a large proportion produces olive oil only for domestic (and often just family) consumption. Lebanese can form strong attachments to their native oil; most of the customers of Lebanese olive oil abroad are from the diaspora.

Olive producer Hussein Hoteit from Nabatieyeh says olive oil from South Lebanon is some 20 percent more expensive than from other parts of the country because the area’s large community abroad creates a higher demand for oil native to the South. But even Hoteit, a longtime producer from the South, doesn’t believe there is a difference between olive oil from different parts of Lebanon.

He says it’s the method of production that determines the quality. At the olive oil mills in the Nabatieyeh area, he points out what the producers are doing correctly and incorrectly: olives should be picked from the tree, not the ground; be delivered in boxes, not bags; be processed within 24 hours of arriving at the plant and stored in stainless steel and kept cool.

Hoteit says as much as Lebanese take pride in their olive oil, there remains  a “lack of olive oil culture in Lebanon.” That is to say, many Lebanese may actually prefer lower-quality oil because they are used to the mild taste, as opposed to the strong, peppery extra virgin flavor. With this in mind, Hoteit is educating Lebanese about the difference between high and low-quality olive oil, — starting with restaurants.

“If we can convince restaurants to use the best quality olive oil, then tourists from the Gulf will notice, and they’ll buy Lebanese oil,” he says.

Currently, Gulf tourists account for the vast majority of visitors to Lebanon, but the region imports just a small amount of olive oil, most of which comes from Spain and Italy.

“The donor countries don’t help. They let Israel bomb us, and then give us free olive presses”

Unhelpful aid

Over the past several years, aid groups have worked closely with olive farmers and producers in Lebanon’s rural areas. The René Moawad Foundation, a local charity, has been supporting Lebanese olive farmers by providing up-to-date training and equipment. The foundation has promoted Lebanese olive oil at food fairs abroad, helping give the product some long-sought international recognition.

The project started in 2003, with funding from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Spanish government, which donated $2.5 million and $860 thousand, respectively.

But not everyone appreciates the effort. Randa Aractingi, who grows her olives in Hasbaya, near the United Nations’ Blue Line, says that supplying free equipment to olive oil producers creates unfair competition for entrepreneurs like her.

“Everyone around me has olive presses from USAID,” she says. “This equipment is going to people who haven’t invested time and money. It’s hard for me to compete when my neighbors are receiving this equipment for free.”

“The donor countries don’t help,” she adds. “They let Israel bomb us, and then give us free olive presses.”

Fuad Hashwa, dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at the Lebanese American University in Byblos, who has been working to manage olive oil waste water, agrees that aid projects for rural development are often counterproductive.

“They fail to sustain themselves, and then we’re back to square one,” he says. Instead, he suggests that creating community cooperatives would help sustain the local environment as well as the economy.

Cleaning the toxic olive waste water would allow farmers to have more fertile soil to grow more trees, and some of the treated waste could be sold for animal feed. Italy holds the international standard to which all olive producing countries aspire; this is where most of Lebanon’s top producers studied their trade and bought their equipment.

Although a small country such as Lebanon is unlikely to ever match the production scale of countries such as Italy, many producers see the potential in achieving a similar reputation for high quality olive oil. Aractingi adds jokingly that she sees a day when sophisticated people will say, “If you want to make tabouleh, use Hasbaya olive oil; for fatoush, use oil from Koura.”

March 12, 2010 0 comments
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Feature

Ales of an industry

by Executive Editors March 12, 2010
written by Executive Editors

Imagine you are the chief executive officer of a major multinational company. Your core business is selling fast-moving consumer goods with a solid majority presence in all of the world’s major markets, but opportunities for further expansion are all but exhausted.

All that remains to conquer is divided into relatively small markets, which would demand extensive investment to break into, since you have no domestic presence there and will have to start from scratch. How do you solve this problem? Simple: you study the market you are targeting, identify the main players in your sector and acquire them. Objective achieved — with the added advantage of providing you with an existing market share, a proven distribution network and local production facilities to introduce your own brands to the market.

Heineken’s takeover

This was the exact tactic employed by Heineken International, a Dutch company and one of three main players on the global beer market. After successfully applying the procedure in small European beer markets such as Greece and Cyprus, the company decided to move onto the even smaller markets in the Middle East. In 2002, Heineken acquired Al-Ahram Beverages Company (ABC) in Egypt which, conveniently having bought out its only competitor El-Gouna in 2001, controlled 100 percent of Egyptian beer production. In Jordan, the country’s only brewery is now exclusively producing Amstel.

In September of 2002, Heineken moved on to Lebanon. Already owning a 10 percent stake in Brasserie Almaza after taking over the Dutch Amstel brand, Heineken acquired another 69 percent stake in one of Lebanon’s national symbols from the quarreling al-Jabr family who founded the brewery. Not satisfied with controlling a majority share of the Lebanese market — and also Syria, which has two state-owned breweries of its own but remains Almaza’s main export market — Heineken also bought Almaza’s only competitor, Laziza, in October 2003.

Lebanon’s annual beer consumption roughly equals the total volume consumed in 10 days at the Munich Oktoberfest

Malt monopoly

Laziza was soon turned into a brand of non-alcoholic malt beverages, which are successfully exported to the Gulf Cooperation Council  market, leaving Almaza without any real competition in what is known as the “mainstream” segment of the beer market. Heineken’s own flagship brand was thereby well-placed to dominate the ‘premium’ or international segment, as it already does in other parts of the world.

Operating in this way virtually closes the market to other global players such as Carlsberg and Anheuser-Busch InBev who, unable to acquire any local producers, would be forced to either pay hefty transport and import costs, or invest heavily to set up local production from scratch.

Neither option would yield substantial returns, even over the long term, due to the negligible size of  the market: Lebanon’s annual per capita beer consumption stands at a mere five liters, as compared to an average 75 liters in Europe. To put this figure in perspective, Lebanon’s annual beer consumption roughly equals the total volume consumed in 10 days at the Munich Oktoberfest alone. The fact that a sizeable proportion of Lebanon’s population are observant Muslims of course affects this figure.

As Almaza’s Marketing Manager Naji Nakouzi explains to Executive: “There are Muslim communities here who are very religious and don’t drink, and others that are more liberal [and do drink], which is why Ramadan does have an effect on our sales.”

Haytham Nasr, a member of the Gemmayzeh Development Committee (GDC), the body of bar and restaurant owners, confirms that the fasting month almost halves the bars’ turnover.

Spirited competition

Nasr confirms that Lebanon simply does not have a beer culture like Europe or America. Beer is seen as a beach refreshment, consumed in summertime, preferably freezing cold.

“In the average bar I estimate that beer makes up 30 percent of sales, at most. Spirits, whether pure or in cocktails, are the preferred drink of the Lebanese. In many bars and clubs beer is actually priced artificially high to discourage its consumption, as spirits and cocktails offer a higher profit margin.”

Nakouzi likewise argues that Almaza’s main competitors aren’t other beer brands but spirits.

“The only way we can enhance our profit margin in Lebanon is by increasing the overall per capita beer consumption, which we try to achieve by encouraging a beer culture,” he says. “We schedule our annual marketing campaigns a little earlier every year, so that beer consumption is now starting to increase in spring, whereas previously consumption didn’t reach its seasonal level until June.”

Nakouzi argues that Almaza welcomes new competitors such as 961, since they contribute to creating a beer culture in the country.

Called 961 after Lebanon’s international dialing code, the country’s newest mainstream brewery was founded in 2006. Despite a growing market share and increasing presence in Beirut’s bars, the fledgling firm’s entire output doesn’t exceed 0.5 percent of the 190,000 hectoliters of Almaza and Laziza produced annually at the famous brewery in Jdeideh.

Competition from 961 makes it untrue to say that Heineken controls the entire beer market in Lebanon, let alone claim, as some disgruntled bar owners do, that it holds a monopoly. There is also real competition in the international market segment — notably from Diageo-owned Corona Extra.

Quality brand

A bigger worry, says Nakouzi, is that 40 percent of Lebanon’s beer market is taken up by the low-end segment of strong canned beers sold mainly in retail outlets and currently dominated by the Turkish Efes brand.

“Although Heineken is a player in that market through our Rex and Meister brands, we prefer to profile ourselves as a quality brand offering,” Nakouzi says.

A truly Lebanese taste

Mazen Hajjar, 961’s chief executive officer, is a true beer enthusiast and a tireless promoter of his creation, which he estimates now makes up to 30 percent of beer sales in bars that carry the brand.

“The important thing for me is to offer…more choice,” he affirms. “We are introducing strong dark beers, including Belgian-style trappists and white beers, the kind that you don’t drink ice-chilled on a beach, but in the cold winter months in a warm bar. It is our arrival on the market that prompted Almaza to introduce its darker Pure Malt variety.”

Hajjar says 961 is a quintessentially Lebanese product; the company persuaded Bekaa valley farmers to grow Lebanon’s first hops crop. By comparison, Fadi Hojeily, quality manager at Almaza’s highly automated computer-controlled brewery for the last 11 years, says that the company imports most of its ingredients from the Netherlands.

“Every ingredient we use has to be approved by Heineken, not only for quality purposes, but also because the ingredients affect the taste of our beer,” he says. “We import the hops, barley, yeast and maize we use.”

In fact, the only Lebanese ingredient in Almaza is the water, which is treated in the plant before being added to the brewing mixture.

The only Lebanese ingredient in Almaza is the water, which is treated at the brewery before being added to the mix

Obstacles for new products

Hajjar identifies the major obstacle facing the introduction of new beer brands as being the prevailing practices in Lebanon’s supermarkets, which are reluctant to add new products to their range.

“In other countries, supermarket chains actually employ scouts who go out and look for local and regional produce, for unique brands to give a supermarket some character that distinguishes it from its competitors,” he says. “The Lebanese retailers do the contrary: they allot disproportionate shelf space to the major established brands and make new brands pay to get their products displayed in a corner of the bottom shelf. We were lucky to have a distributor who really believed in us or we still would not have made it to the supermarkets.”

GDC’s Nasr, who in addition to running a bar, also works as a marketing manager in a food and beverages firm, confirms Hajjar’s story: “If you want to get a new product listed, you have to pay huge fees. Shelf space is expensive too, and a two week promotion campaign with an off-shelf display in the five major supermarket chains in Lebanon will easily set you back some $10,000. Taken together, these factors mean you need a serious promotion budget just to get your product placed in the supermarkets.”

None of this, however, has dampened the enthusiasm of 961’s Hajjar, who recently announced a major new financial injection for the young company, enabling it to buy a second brewhouse and add extra fermentation tanks to increase output.

“We cannot keep up with the demand,” says Hajjar. “Everything we produce is sold out as soon as it enters the market. We still have a long way to go before achieving our full potential.”

March 12, 2010 0 comments
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Feature

Walid Noshie

by Executive Editors March 12, 2010
written by Executive Editors

Shortly after takeoff from Beirut on October 3, 1957, a Curtis-Commando C-46 airplane of the Lebanese International Airways (LIA), bound for Ku-wait, caught fire. The pilot signaled to the control tower that the plane was in distress and that he was turning around to make an emergency landing, according to an account in L’Orient-Le Jour the next day. Minutes later the control tower received a final message: “Airplane uncontrollable; falling,” and the flight disappeared into the Mediterranean.

Twenty-three passengers and crew reportedly lost their lives, and while remains and luggage were recovered, the plane itself was lost to the deep. Further reports alleged that as much as 380 kilograms in gold coins were on board the plane when it went down.

Some 40 years later, Walid Noshie, owner of the Scuba Station gear shop in Hamra and a seasoned underwater enthusiast, caught wind of the tale of the doomed LIA flight. This began a near decade-long quest to find the plane and recover the gold. He amassed considerable experience over that period, and is now considered an expert in underwater search and recovery. 

Recently, Noshie’s experience of searching for drowned planes became  sadly all too relevant. Shortly after takeoff from Beirut on January 25 of this year, Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET-409 bound for Addis Ababa crashed into the Mediterranean, killing all 90 people on board. In the immediate aftermath of the tragedy, Noshie became a consultant for the Lebanese government in locating the plane’s black box recorders and recovering the victims’ remains.  Executive recently sat down for an exclusive interview with Noshie.

  • What’s your connection to the 1957 airplane crash and the search for the gold? Why was there gold on the plane in the first place?

[Our search] started in 1999.  We found a plane between Khaldeh and Beirut at a depth of 1,500 meters [in 2006].  It was exactly the size of the C46 and we thought, “this is it.”  The plane turned out to be a Henkel German Nazi fighter from World War II.  We had to start from scratch again. 

The Arabs in general used to pay with the English gold pound. Back then in 1957 [the British were] not making those gold coins anymore, but the soldiers in the Arab countries were still getting paid in the gold coin and they wanted [them]. Who was counterfeiting those gold coins?  Lebanon and Italy.  So they were buying them from us and paying their soldiers — which would explain the gold on the LIA flight.

  • What’s your connection to the search for the Ethiopian plane that recently crashed?

When the plane crashed I received a call from Prime Minister [Saad] Hariri, because he knows I have the expertise in looking for underwater stuff.  They needed someone to look for the plane [and he asked me to help].

I called Ocean Alert [which is owned by Odyssey Marine Exploration, Noshie’s partners in the search for the LIA flight] and said, “Look we have a disaster here. Can you help?”  They said, “OK we need 24 hours to be in Lebanon,” and, effectively, 24 hours later they were here.  This is when they went to the army base and were given [an area to search]. 

  • Who was involved in the main search parties?

The main search parties were the USS Ramage, the Laboe (a UN German ship) and the Ocean Alert.  [The army] gave each an area to search.  The USS Ramage and the Laboe didn’t have the Ocean Alert’s equipment but they hoped to hear, possibly, the black box [with sonar].

  • Who was supervising the search?

At all times two officers from the navy and army were on board the Ocean Alert, observing the search operation. So all ships were under the control of the Lebanese Army and the investigators, and had to comply with the requested search area.

  • How did the search unfold?

One night, after 48 hours or so, I received a call from the army saying that the USS Ramage had heard [a signal] in their area, approximately 10 kilometers out.  Logically, it didn’t make sense.  The investigators said [the plane] fell near to shore, the witnesses at the tower said it fell near the shore.  However, the Ramage said, “We heard the beacon 10 kilometers off Beirut.” So the only logical course of action from the army and investigators was to ask the Ocean Alert [which had the capabilities of scanning deep water areas] to direct its search to where USS Ramage heard that beacon.

  • Why was the Ocean Alert the only one that could scan that area?

Laboe and Ramage don’t have the capability to scan the sea bed deeper than 100 meters, while the Ocean Alert is equipped to scan waters up to 2,000 meters deep. So the Ocean Alert complied with the orders of the army and the investigators, and went out 10 kilometers and started looking.

The Ramage said it did not have an exact spot but rather a 35 square kilometer area where it had heard the beacon. The Ocean Alert started looking and after two days of search found [non geological] debris at 1,400 meters depth, which extended 1.6 kilometers across the bottom. We asked the Ramage to pass over the debris, [as we gave them that exact position] and see if they heard the beacon. They went over the debris and reconfirmed hearing the beacon.

While the Ocean Alert was out and ready to deploy its [remote operating vehicle] to check the debris at 1,400 meters, the French arrived with a device used to specifically hear the beacon of the airplane. They arrived on a [Lebanese] army ship and started listening in the area of the USS Ramage, exactly where we saw the debris, but did not hear anything.

At the same time, a body popped up to the surface in the search area of the Laboe [closer to shore]. So we decided to ask the Ocean Alert to go and investigate that area, with the approval of the army. 

The French team came to the same area as well and this is when they started hearing a beacon [in the Laboe’s area]. The Ocean Alert joined forces with the Lebanese Navy and started looking but didn’t find anything the first night. So they all came back to shore and had a meeting with the army and the French investigators. They re-pinpointed the exact position because the previous point they gave us was not exactly where they had heard the beacon.

They rectified that position and with these new coordinates, we were pretty sure we were going to find the plane between that night and the next day. At 8 o’clock in the morning I made a phone call to the Prime Minister. I confirmed that the Ocean Alert had located the tail and some debris. It was 42 meters deep and the army immediately began diving, looking for bodies and the black box. They found the first black box on the next day. The Ocean Alert made a wider search and it showed that the whole plane was right there but it was in a thousand pieces. 

We made an arrangement with the army that they would dive during the day and pick up bodies, while the Ocean Alert took over at night,  to scan and mark by [Global Positioning Satellite] the bodies they found. This was the pattern until two days ago [February 16]. And while getting bodies from the wreck, they found the remains of the second black box. This is how the second black box was found. The Lebanese army and the navy did an immense job to get all those bodies from the bottom.

  • What did the USS Ramage hear 10 km off Beirut?

It’s hard to tell, however; whatever they heard was not the ET-409 beacon, since the plane was finally found less than 3 km away off the coast of Lebanon.

  • Don’t bodies tend to float?

Bodies tend to float if they are in one piece, because you have gas in the intestines and in the lungs. However if the body is [not intact], it becomes a bulk of weight on the bottom.  There is nothing to make it float. The plane was in so many pieces and the bodies were not intact either. The plane fell from 9,000 feet, to hit the ocean at a speed of 700 kilometers per hour, so you can imagine what kind of impact that would create. It’s exactly like hitting concrete.

Mind you, when we started searching Hariri and Minister [of Public Works and Transportation MP Ghazi] Aridi gave strict, strict instructions that the two most important things for them were the bodies and the black box. That’s all they cared about. They wanted to get the bodies to their families and the black box, to know the truth.

  • Why did you ask the Odyssey Explorer to come to Beirut?

Odyssey Explorer (a second ship) showed up because I was asked by Hariri to be prepared for all scenarios. In the event that the plane was found and needed to be lifted to the surface, Odyssey Explorer has the capabilities of lifting the entire plane if needed. Ocean Alert can only lift up to 50 kilos. When Odyssey Explorer arrived, Ocean Alert returned to its previous work in the Mediterranean while Odyssey finished the job. 

At the initial arrival of Ocean Alert to Beirut, a day after the crash, they intended to find the plane in two or three days because they thought that the crash positions that were given were pretty much exact, but this was not the case and it took all this time. Ocean Alert had no intention of getting paid; they were just serving Lebanon free of charge, on the request of Hariri and Aridi.

After one week of search, [Odyssey Marine Exploration] told me, “It’s taking longer than expected and now that you are asking us for our second ship, the Odyssey Explorer to come [from London] and help in the search and recovery, we will have to charge.” It was agreed that Odyssey would start charging for its services only after February 1. All its services prior to that date were a gift to Lebanon. 

  • Were you personally on board the ships while they were doing the search?

No. I was in Beirut communicating between the ship, the government, the army and the investigators. I needed my phone and the internet to work efficiently so that I could relay requests and orders between all parties, as well as writing daily reports regarding the search.

  • Where is Odyssey Marine Exploration based?

Tampa, Florida. This is what they did for Lebanon. In return, they get accused by some local news media that they were wasting time looking for the gold. The accusations that these ships were taking advantage to look for the C-46 are absurd. All search activities and movements of the ships were directed by the investigation team and the army while directly supervised by the Lebanese Navy.

  • Do you have any plans to request that the Odyssey and Ocean Alert come back out to look for gold?

Absolutely, when they are done with the search and recovery of the Ethiopian plane, and only when we get the legal permit for the search from the Lebanese Government.  This has nothing to do with helping [look for the Ethiopian plane].

  • Where do you think the plane with the gold might be located?

It’s hard to say. Just look at how long it took to find the ET-409 flight. The C-46 was lost over 50 years ago. We know it’s somewhere out there, we just need to find it. 

March 12, 2010 0 comments
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Pooling resources for peace

by Riad Al-Khouri March 9, 2010
written by Riad Al-Khouri

The view from the Swiss hotel where I found myself this winter was wet indeed. Both the falling rain and the sight of Lake Leman a few meters away focused attention on the theme of the meeting that brought me there: water.

Invited by the Strategic Foresight Group of Mumbai, India, to take part in their initiative on water security in the Middle East, I attended two workshops convened in February in Montreux: the first on Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Turkey, and the second on the Jordan Valley countries. Supported by the Swiss and Swedish governments, the aim was to find sustainable collaborative solutions to the problem of water security, by using water as an instrument of regional peace.

Delivering the event’s keynote speech, Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan stressed the need for a regional water community. He called for a supra-national entity, such as the coal and steel community out of which the European Economic Community grew. He voiced hope that such a concept could spur regional co-operation and bring benefits comparable to European integration. Extending the metaphor that water does not start fires but puts them out, he noted that “war does not make additional water, but regional cooperation can.”

Looking at the Iraq-Syria-Turkey triangle in particular, it is possible to see this idea becoming a practical proposition. After centuries of Ottoman occupation of Syria and Iraq, followed by decades of friction among the three countries, each of them has now reached a stage of economic development where sustainable mechanisms to make the best use of shared water look both crucial and inevitable. Of the three, Syria may have the weakest resource position, with Turkish water and Iraqi oil respectively making Ankara and Baghdad look better endowed than Damascus. Syria shares five rivers with neighboring countries: the Euphrates, Tigris, Yarmouk, Orontes, and Al Kabir Al Janoubi. Of these, the Euphrates is most important for Syria, providing 36 percent of its renewable annual surface water resources. Multiple dams being constructed upstream in Turkey could potentially cut off some supply downstream, but better political relations on the one hand and sound use of water all around on the other should help ameliorate the problem. An agreement was signed in 1986 to allocate water from the Euphrates among Turkey, Iraq and Syria. A more recent accord among the three allows Syria to irrigate 150,000 hectares of land from the Tigris.

It may, however, be a good idea to put these agreements in the framework of a Tigris-Euphrates basin authority, which would have the power to develop hydraulic resources. Such a body could be financed by international donors, as well as Iraq and Turkey, with its headquarters in Syria. The authority would seek to make development of the basin a dynamic process backed by research, follow-up and the muscle to take decisions regarding water use.

Is this a utopian idea? Not at all: the three countries have been steadily moving closer over the past few years and such a step is no longer far-fetched (It’s true that there was a spike in tension between Syria and Iraq over accusations of recent bombings in Baghdad and other security issues, but that is gradually fading).

For the sake of the whole region, this would be a good idea, but Syria in particular could benefit greatly. The country’s per capita available water resources are about 860 cubic meters per year, below the international water poverty standard of 1000 cubic meters per capita annually. Regional modeling studies forecast a reduction of rainfall in the mid-21st century in the upper Euphrates and Tigris basin, leading to a drop in river discharge of 10 to 25 percent by 2070. Meanwhile, water shortage is increasing. Some 60 percent of the country’s irrigated area is served by private wells, over half of which are illegal – more than double the illicit drilling rate of 25 percent in 1999.

In short, Syria is suffering from water tension, which could be relieved by comprehensive management of Tigris-Euphrates resources. That in turn would have a positive domino effect on Syria’s water sharing with Lebanon and Jordan, also contributing to decreased tension.

Riad al-Khouri is a senior economist at the William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor,and dean of the business school at the Lebanese French University in Erbil, Iraq

March 9, 2010 0 comments
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Turkey’s empty coup

by Peter Grimsditch March 9, 2010
written by Peter Grimsditch

Obama orders arrest of three four-star generals. Air Force and Marine chiefs accused of trying to overthrow the administration.” If these headlines were splashed across the front pages of the American press, worries in the United States about healthcare, stimulus packages and budget deficits would pale into afterthoughts. Yet life in Turkey continues as normal, at least for the moment, despite last month’s arrests of 49 former and active military officers. Those held include two former commanders of naval operations, two admirals, three vice-generals and one vice-admiral, as well as two rear admirals and two brigadier generals still on active duty.

On the surface, the arrests are an extension of the round-up over the past two years of nearly 300 people who are alleged to have been plotting to overthrow the government of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The bizarre schemes in the latest charges included planning for a mosque to be bombed and a Turkish fighter jet to be shot down, so the armed forces could step in to rescue the country from chaos, conveniently deposing a democratically elected government perceived by some to be hell-bent on turning Turkey into an Islamic state.

The latest skirmish between the AKP and the military prompted President Abdullah Gul to arrange a meeting between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and armed forces chief General Ilker Basbug. After three hours of talks, Gul’s office said that any “current problems would be solved within the framework of the constitution.”

So, no joy for those fearing (or others hoping for) a military coup. In fact, the prospect is highly unlikely since the whole world has changed since the military last flexed its muscles that way in 1980. Turkey is no longer the last outpost before the start of the evil Soviet empire, and there is less incentive for foreign states to sanction military coups. The current charges stem from 2003 and a war game codenamed Sledgehammer, which included steps to unseat the Erdogan government by creating chaos in the country with the help of terrorist attacks, according to press reports. The AKP says it was for real; the army says it was part of a normal exercise.

Erdogan has distanced himself from the arrests by saying that the judiciary is in charge of the investigation and technically he is correct.

What may be just as intriguing as the alleged plot is the role in its revelation played by the Taraf newspaper, which has revealed many of the stories about the equally alleged coup attempt. The paper is only two years old, and its inception coincided with widespread arrests in relation to the “Ergenekon conspiracy” case, in which well over 200 people are still under arrest for conspiracy to overthrow the government. Taraf claims to have received material from military officers who are opposed to the plots. The fledgling daily has scooped its better-established rivals with lurid tales. The inherent conflict between the AKP and self-styled staunch secularists is rife with conjecture but not replete with facts. Each time the AKP uses its legitimate powers of patronage to appoint supporters into various establishment jobs, it risks the charge of adding yet another brick to the Islamist state it is supposedly building. There is never a mention that the secularists had been appointing their own favorites for more half a century before the AKP came into power in 2002.  Predecessors of the AKP presided over rampant inflation — some lottery prizes are still advertised as offering prize money of trillions of liras — and wholesale corruption. The AKP has reduced inflation to single digits, expanded the economy at a rate never seen in modern Turkey’s history and stabilized the currency.

Some financial analysts warn the very public spat between the army and the government will destroy all these economic gains. One report said the lira would quickly lose 8 percent. More sanguine (and cynical) observers recall the results of the so-called ‘e-coup’ in April 2007, when the army warned the AKP not to pose a threat to secularism, and the attempt to close down the party in 2008. In both cases the markets and the currency quickly recovered.

There is no particular reason to believe that this trial of strength will have any different consequence, and a military coup in Turkey these days is as likely as Obama arresting four-star generals.

Peter Grimsditch is Executive’s Istanbul correspondent

March 9, 2010 0 comments
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Society

Facing the digital future

by Spencer Osberg March 3, 2010
written by Spencer Osberg

The who’s who of the advertising industry from across the Middle East and North Africa and beyond were brought together last month at the MENA Cristal Festival, amid the snows of Mzaar Kfardebiane. The highlight of the event, held February 1 through 5, was unquestionably the evening awards ceremonies, where the advertising agencies with the most innovative and best executed campaigns of the year earned their recognition in the spotlight.

During the days, however, among the various conference debates, round-table talks and chats in the hotel lobby, it became apparent that all is not at ease in the advertising industry. Beyond the fact that the sector, globally, lost up to 11 percent of its revenues last year as the financial downturn squeezed clients’ budgets, there is also a new reality bearing down on the industry, changing the old paradigm within which people once worked.

“Some people still feel that digital is just another channel, but its not, that’s the whole point. `It’s not an evolution, it is definitely a revolution,” said Dimitri Metaxas, regional digital executive director for Omnicom Media Group. “It is definitely something that has moved on and changed the rules of the game.”

As Richard Pinder, chief operating officer of Publicis Worldwide and president of this year’s MENA Cristal Festival, put it: “The difference between the new world and old world is two-way versus one-way.”

The near limitless availability of information online has made consumers far savvier than previous generations, said Metaxas, which, combined with any online users’ ability to reach a global audience almost as easily as a multinational corporation, and has led to a “democratization” of the process.

“We’re now in a forum, and not a pulpit,” he remarked. “This has shifted the consumer from that lower level of happily consuming what it is we tell them [to], to now having a very active role in that communication.”

Digital’s two-way street

Metaxas illustrates what this new dynamic can mean, using the example of the United Arab Emirate telecommunications provider du, which had recognized that it had an image problem with regard to its customer service. To address this, the company first opened an account on the Twitter social networking service and incentivized people to ‘follow’ it, using contests to win an iPhone, just as du was launching its iPhone service in the United Arab Emirates.

The company then transformed the Twitter account into a customer service channel.

Metaxas said in monitoring the “buzz” in online posts and chat rooms, many complained that du’s customer service was unresponsive.

“They turned their customer service into a marketing problem, and they committed to changing and solving every person’s query or customer service issue,” he explained. “What ended up happening is all these really negative statements — literally 99 percent of them — have transformed into positives.”

People who had posted comments like “customer service — nightmare,” were now posting comments like, “du, I can’t believe you’re actually listening to me, and two, you solved my problem.” The idea that digital advertising is little more than banner ads on websites – i.e. simply a “digital version” of what would be on TV or outdoor billboards — is a concept quickly becoming antiquated; it is the ability, even necessity, to include customers in campaigns that makes digital advertising a radically more expansive concept, said Mataxas.    

“If you make [consumers] part of the process, then you create advocacy out of it, and that, I think, is a far more powerful emotion than just advertising at them,” he said.

“Advertising is fantastic at building awareness, and it can engage if it’s really good…but that’s still a one-way process, and I think that is one of the fundamental shifts we’re talking about that social media has created. People have an opinion; they want to voice that opinion. If you ignore them, then you do it at your own peril.”

Blurring the lines

The digital revolution is creating anxiety among the veterans of advertising because it breaks down the walls between what used to be clearly defined roles in the production chain.

“Media, creative, public relations, direct marketing, customer relationship management — they’re all blurred,” said Pinder.  Even while uncertainty grows about individual responsibilities within the new digital paradigm, it is ever more certain that the digitalization of advertising will only accelerate. Pinder said that two years ago Publicis Worldwide’s revenue from digital advertising was zero; today it is 20 percent of total revenue and his aim is push that to 30 percent by 2012.

“Where I had an office that didn’t have digital, they had a catastrophic 2009,” said Pinder. “I have seen offices — both mine and from other networks — that [lost] one quarter of their revenue in one year, by not having digital.”

“In one particular office, their ad agency was down 35 percent in 18 months but their digital was up 75 percent, and they ended up at minus 3 [percent],” he continued. “People who tell me digital isn’t that important or it’s just a sideshow of advertising — no way. This is going to be one third of my business in two years.”

Pinder says Publicis is in the process of rebranding all of its global digital assets under the banner of Publicis Modem, and is planning an aggressive digital expansion in the Middle East “very soon.”

Existing tomorrow

Hussein Freijeh, Yahoo’s director of advertising sales at Dubai Internet City, explained that Internet penetration across the region has been expanding at more than 50 percent per year for the last four years, allowed for by the expansion of telecommunications infrastructure. He pointed to Egypt as one market that was “massively growing,” and said that in Dubai — already the region’s advertising hub and arguably the most wired-in of the region’s cities — is so far at the crest of the digital wave.

Digitalization of the future being near predestined

It seems, however, that some of the biggest players in the advertising and business communities still have their heads stuck in the sand.

“[Last year] we saw some major brands double their spending online, but we saw other major brands not spend a penny online,” said Freijeh, who lamented that one of the biggest challenges he still faces is to shift people out of the “offline” mentality.

With the digitalization of the future being near predestined, this reticence is baffling. But then again, it is in the nature of revolutions, digital or otherwise, for there to be those who recognize the significance of developments as they are happening and adapt to excel in the new reality. And there are always others, too married to the comfort of the old ways to change, as the shifting tide washes them into irrelevance.

March 3, 2010 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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