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Private Equity

MENA – Budding with equity

by Executive Staff December 3, 2008
written by Executive Staff

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region continues to favor private equity as a leading alternative asset class, but changes in 2008 have led many to believe that 2009 will bring new industry dynamics, with a host of investment and regulatory movements sure to make private equity firms more competitive.

Time to invest
Although regional liquidity levels rose in 2008, commensurate with the price of oil, capital has not gone to new funds. In 2007, regional private equity houses raised a total of 22 new funds totaling assets under management of a little over $5 billion. During the first half of 2008, however, funds focused on MENA investments rose only $1.14 billion, which is a slight drop on first half 2007 figures of $1.81 billion and consistent with similarly small drops in other developing markets, such as Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America. The slowing growth in fundraising in 2008 is indicative of the many funds that have raised money but have yet to invest. Few firms have exercised capital calls for new investments, but in 2009 fund managers will have to start making deals to move their funds into the investment stage. Following a more fervent investing climate, different fund managers will prove themselves at a time when a market consolidation will begin and only the best private equity firms will remain standing.
Infrastructure and energy remain the best placed industries in which to invest. The large deal sizes for companies with grand-scale projects in the works for both sectors allow private equity firms to do some tinkering with company fundamentals, but with ever larger-scaled projects, a few deals could prove extremely lucrative. Relationships in executing these higher-level transactions will be important and local fund managers will be best placed to work with the appropriate officials in government and the private sector to invest successfully. Additional infrastructure investments in what the industry terms ‘social infrastructure’ will also allow funds to deploy capital to strategically important companies involved in the fields of education and health, which in the largest regional economies has achieved astounding growth, particularly in Saudi Arabia and other countries of the GCC and, to a lesser extent, in Egypt.
However, in order to source and invest in lucrative deals, private equity firms must still countenance a number of related issues pertaining to the lack of available data, on-the-ground and competent advisors, entangling legal and regulatory frameworks, and finding appropriate management talent. The majority of these problems will remain unsolved in 2008 and there is no panacea in finding the right technical competence to operation teams, although improvements in many countries’ regulatory climates should allow funds to execute more deals in 2009 under less constraining frameworks than fund managers dealt with in the past.

Restructuring for 2009
An ameliorating regulatory environment should prompt fund managers to look for standard exit opportunities via public offerings. One constraint on sourcing deals might be the inability to find strategic partners to whom fund managers could sell their investments down the road. Although capital markets are not performing at exceptional levels, new stock exchanges in North Africa and other frontier markets in MENA should prompt fund managers to line up deals that could be exited upon them. Syria, in particular, will remain a country to watch as many funds, including those raised by SHUAA Partners, have included the country in their fund foci. The country’s Law No. 7, passed in 2000, afforded financial firms special tax treatment, which existing holding companies operating private equity-like business lines have used to their advantage. In 2009, the country plans on taking another significant step forward with the (long-overdue) opening of the Damascus Stock Exchange, with a building and trading platform already purchased.
New improvements should give the necessary boost to the region’s broader investment climate, in which private equity stands to benefit. However, challenges to the industry will not be erased in 2009 from better external climates. Observers have pointed out the excess amount of private equity funds in the region, and particularly in the Gulf, which are doing deals in tandem partnerships or focusing on a myriad of hot industries, like infrastructure and telecoms. Some acknowledge that up-to- date, regional private equity firms have looked for the most lucrative deals and, in a relatively immature investment climate, have been able to capitalize on easy opportunities denoted as ‘low-hanging fruit’. As these types of deals dry up, firms will face a more challenging investment environment and will need to work on their own internal mechanics in order to survive through 2009.

December 3, 2008 0 comments
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Economy & Finance

Falling with optimism

by Executive Staff December 3, 2008
written by Executive Staff

At the close of 2008, most financial analysts and observers of the Casablanca Stock Exchange (Bourse des Valeurs de Casablanca, BVC) agree that the market remains sheltered from the financial turmoil rocking global markets, with the national economy’s fundamentals still strong. Thanks to its advantageous position at the crossroads between European and African markets, the BVC, Africa’s third-largest market, is a top performer in the region, with a capitalization that reached MAD600 billion ($69.2 billion) in 2007.

Officials are currently downplaying a bearish trend that began in October. In a statement Fathallah Berrada, president of the executive board of the bourse, gave assurances that there is no direct link between the global financial crisis and the current bearishness of the BVC. Berrada pointed out that Moroccan businesses and the overall economic environment remain strong and healthy, claiming that the morose climate in market circles is unfounded, caused “80-90% by psychology” and not grounded in any real cause for doubt. Insiders have indeed predicted the downward trend, which Berrada called “a sign of vitality and maturity of the market,” adding that it is very healthy for markets to correct themselves from time to time.
A similar assessment was voiced by Youssef Benkirane, president of the Professional Association of Bourse Businesses (Association Professionnelle des Societes de Bourses — APSB), who attributed the trend to the psychological impact of the international financial crisis. International turbulence has had “no direct impact” on the Casablanca market, he said. Yet he did concede that investors cannot remain unaware of what is happening in the international markets. He continued, “There is a psychological contamination among investors, which is leading them to panic and start selling their stocks.”

Rallying investors
Benkirane called upon investors to maintain their confidence in the national financial market, as well as in the more than 70 businesses being traded on the market, whose average profits were more than 20% higher in the first semester of 2008, compared to the same period in 2007. One reason for preserving investor confidence, he said, is that the national financial market “is not open to the exterior thanks to the current foreign exchange regulations,” adding that “we do not have the problems of interbank liquidity that are going on abroad.”
Abdellatif Jouahri, governor of Morocco’s central bank, also publicly expressed his optimism for the future of the national financial market. In a declaration at the 32nd meeting of the Council of Arab Central Bank Governors and Issuing Institutes, held in Marrakech, he confirmed Morocco’s prudence and indicated that authorities are closely following the evolution of this crisis to ward off any risks. In order to effectively insure the immunity of the Moroccan monetary system, Jouahri announced the creation of a watchdog unit charged with collecting and exchanging information with the large financial markets and global policymakers.
At a colloquium organized by a Moroccan parliamentary group, participants debated what is at stake in the market, as well as ways to reverse the downward trend. Participants agreed that exchange regulations and the stability of the Moroccan banking system will protect against all but a limited fallout on the Casablanca market. The risk did, however, spark a debate on possible new roles the bourse could play in the Moroccan economy and its integration in various development policies. The colloquium concluded by recommending several measures geared to restore medium and long-term stability to the market. One recommendation would isolate the bourse as a separate sector and not simply a transaction market, allowing it to better finance the economy through privatizations. Another would differentiate between speculation and savings in the medium and long-term so as to favor the shoring-up of reserves. Another recommendation would reinstate a former system of deductions for institutions.

Global financial crisis fallout
When asked about the repercussions of the international financial crisis on the Moroccan economy, Abderrahmane Ouali, consultant and university professor, responded: “What we may feel, although not immediately, will touch our real economy. In other words, our growth could be weakened and our levels of unemployment and inflation could rise.” As for the impact on the Casablanca bourse, Ouali indicated that it is minimal, “since the bourse is still in embryonic stages.” Ouali agreed that the downward trend was the result of a severe and brisk correction after several bearish sessions.
The severity of this correction is related to the over- valuation of certain key securities, especially in real estate (CGI, Addoha and Alliances), cement, construction sector securities and leading banks. Markets similar to Casablanca have PERs of close to 20 times their profit. Ouali said, however, that the Moroccan bourse was dealing with, before the abrupt fall, a PER close to 29 times profit. PERs for some exceptional securities were 131.1 times profit for CGI, 72.3 times profit for Alliances, 33.3 times profit for BMCE Bank and 25.3 times profit for Addoha. “This overestimation made the market less and less attractive and suddenly the volume of transactions began to fall inexorably, halving since August. With flagship securities so elevated, investors became harder to find and some turned over securities neglected until now,” Ouali added.
In 2009, a series of measures will be implemented to insure a rigorous and transparent management of the Casablanca Bourse in conformity with international norms, like the implementation of the latest version of the New Trading System (NSC V900). In its 80 years of existence, the bourse has acquired the know-how and the capital necessary to respond to the aspirations of investors, gain their trust and contribute to Morocco’s development.

December 3, 2008 0 comments
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By Invitation

Resource efficiency is everyone‘s business

by Fadi Eid December 3, 2008
written by Fadi Eid

The demand for resources is rising — financial crisis or not — while supplies are becoming increasingly scarce. The global population is set to rise from 6.3 billion at present to eight billion by 2030. Consumption of resources in today’s developing countries is rising unchecked and can be expected to account for two thirds of international energy consumption by 2030.

This change will force the world’s population to implement sustainable solutions and to think with the future in mind. Longer term, it means switching to alternative energies. In parallel, it is vital to make more efficient use of existing resources. Increasing efficiency means handling resources with greater awareness in terms of consumption and utilization. Credit Suisse distinguishes between five basic areas in which the efficient use of resources can be enhanced.

Energy efficiency
New lighting, heating and cooling technologies could achieve energy savings of up to 60%. New aircraft engines could cut kerosene consumption by 15-30% and hybrid vehicle technologies offer a fuel reduction potential of 30-50%.

Waste efficiency
To overcome the waste problem, the volume generated needs to be drastically reduced. Numerous technologies for waste recycling are already available, but they could still be implemented more consistently.

Water efficiency
Instead of tapping new water reserves, it is essential to improve the consumption cycle so that water can be treated for re-use. Innovative technologies could reduce consumption in households and industries.

Raw materials efficiency
Many raw materials are not recycled, but instead are disposed in landfill sites once they have been used. The introduction of a global recycling process could improve matters in this area. New technologies also make it possible to work with smaller quantities of improved materials.

Controlling air pollution
Healthcare costs caused by air pollution account for 5-20% of total international GDP. There is definitely room for better filter technologies to be deployed worldwide, as well as for tighter control systems to be established.

Fady Eid is the chairman and general manager of Credit Suisse (Lebanon Finance) S.A.L.

 

December 3, 2008 0 comments
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Real estate

Bahrain – Calm oasis

by Executive Staff December 3, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Bahrain, the smallest territory and population in the MENA region and the smallest economy in the GCC, is currently continuing its real estate development as it is trying to diversify its economy away from oil and gas, which still represent around 77% of revenues. Faced by the same challenges as other countries in the region, ranging from the cost of construction to the liquidity crunch, it seems that Bahrain is better equipped to handle the global financial crisis since its demand is mainly local and its market is comparatively small.

Since Bahrain is the first to be expected to run out of oil, it started to diversify its economy long before its neighbors, focusing on tourism, real estate and finance. In 1999, legislation was passed allowing land ownership by GCC nationals. In 2001, a new decree was issued, which came into force in 2003, stating that non-Bahrainis, GCC nationals and others, may own land in Bahrain for both personal and business use. Around the capital, the areas that are open for freehold ownership are Ahmed Al-Fateh, Hoora, Bu Ghazal, Seef and Northern Manama, including the diplomatic area.

Market overview
Over the past three years, property prices have been growing by 10-15% per annum with a 20% increase for some projects from the third quarter in 2007 to the second quarter in 2008. Nonetheless, price increases in some high- end districts were even more substantial. In Durrat Al Bahrain, the price of a 500 square meter villa doubled to around $800,000. Increases for new rents in residential areas, however, slowed to 30% from 40% in 2007. Amin Al Arrayed, general manager of the real estate company First Bahrain, explained that the country’s real estate market is driven by regional demand and not global demand like in Dubai, and thus is less inflationary. He added that, “marked increase in prices of all factors of development and a shortage in key building materials… created significant problems for developers who were faced with ever increasing cost.” The cost of materials rose 30% in 2007 and a further 50% in the first half of 2008.
As is the case throughout the region, real estate demand in Bahrain outweighs supply. Oxford Business Group (OBG) reported that 40,000 social housing units are currently needed, with demand growing in leaps and bounds. According to Zawya, at least 60,000 residential units will be delivered in the next eight years and a balance between supply and demand should come in 2012. Additionally, the Bahraini real estate advisory DTZ said that more than 1 million square meters of office space should be available across the kingdom by 2012, representing a 100% increase in the space currently available.
According to Global Property Guide, currently real estate projects worth $9 billion are under development. The most important developments that will be completed in the next couple of years are Durrat Al Bahrain, Bahrain Bay, Diyar Al Muharraw, Reef Island and Bahrain Investment Wharf. New towers are also being constructed, like the Abraj Al Lulu, Infinity Tower and Era Tower. Al Arrayed explained that, “a key trend has been the rise of mixed- use developments that provide integrated and holistic lifestyle solutions, [as well as] the move towards sustainable development and smart eco-friendly solutions.”
Moreover, Bahrain announced plans for major expansion of its international airport that will have a price tag of nearly $1 billion. The plan is to concentrate on expanding terminal capacity to meet the country’s air transportation requirements for the next two decades.

World financial crisis
When the global financial crisis hit the market, there was a slowdown in demand for real estate, as many of Bahrain’s residents are waiting to see what will happen next. “The financial crisis has impacted the real estate sector directly as a result of a reduction in the liquidity that is required to fund most of the development projects,” said Al Arrayed. He also explained that, as in other countries, speculators were most affected. “In particular, the high-end freehold sector that has seen the highest level of appreciation in recent years has been the hardest hit, as over leveraged speculative investors are unable to secure financing required to pay their developers… the current crisis will test those business models that have focused on investment driven developments characterized by short-term returns.” He expects many of these speculative developments “will have difficulty obtaining the necessary funds to proceed.”
R. Lakshmanan, CEO of Sakana Holistic Housing Solutions, told Gulf Daily News that the sales in property might have slowed down, but the rental market is still very strong. Additionally, prices are not falling and people should start buying again in the next few months. He added that Bahrain is better placed to weather the correction than other countries in the region.

December 3, 2008 0 comments
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Economy & Finance

Tunisia – Market maneuvering

by Executive Staff December 3, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Tunisia’s Bourse des Valeurs Mobilieres (BVMT) is expected to remain relatively immune to the international financial crisis in 2009. Mokdadi Hamadi, CEO of UBCI Finance, said that in light of the daily pressure investors apply to stock exchange prices, directors of traded companies should turn to new opportunities, and legally, intervention may take two forms. First, companies could buy back their own stocks, injecting liquidity into the market. This may ease the volatility of securities and reassure shareholders, in conformity with the article 72/73 of the Public Call for Savings.

The article stipulates that “the interventions of a company on its own securities must have the objective, in the interest of its shareholders, of either insuring liquidity in the market of the security concerned, or reducing the excessive fluctuations of its market price.”
Second, an intermediary in the bourse could close a contract of liquidity for a determined period.
At the end of September 2008, the rate of foreign engagement stood at 25% of bourse capitalization. Twenty- two percent of foreign shareholding is estimated to correspond to a stable and sustainable participation, acquired in a partnership framework in order to occupy a strategic position, in companies and also in Tunisian banks. In August, trading on the BVMT saw 3% of foreign holdings ceded so that foreign holding in the stock market capitalization shrank from 28% end July to 25% end August 2008.
Tunisian regulations in exchange matters are considered very well structured at the level of portfolio investment. Khaleb Zribi, managing director of CGF, a subsidiary of GAT, explained that the indicators reflect the good health of the country’s economy, which presents a safe, favorable and secure platform for investing in the BVMT.
Ninety percent of Tunisia’s entrepreneurial fabric consists of undercapitalized small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that resort to banking over- indebtedness in order to finance their activities in the short-term and their development projects in the medium and long-term. This not only burdens their financial load, but it also generates a higher rate of questionable debts in the country’s banking system. In the end, competitiveness of Tunisian export products could be affected, which is why the state has set up several instruments aiming to help the financial market by alleviating some of the indebtedness to banks, while at the same time favoring the reinforcement of businesses’ equity capital by opening their capital, Zribi said.
An enterprise traded on the bourse gains both in prestige and in recognition, which generally helps out the business’ image and market position. Introduction to the bourse also facilitates relations with social and administrative partners, as well as in the spheres of banking, finance and commerce. The stock market has generated more dynamism among enterprises and within the financial market, as means for potential growth are explored. Investors, however, are more likely to covet the short-term dividends, to the detriment of stable portfolios that perform in the long-term.
With 100 securities traded on the principal bourse and as many on the alternative market, Tunisia’s market shows signs of attaining the status of a major regional financial market over the next few years. The bourse has a structured and balanced listing system, while the exchange rate of securities listed fluctuates in ranges limited by statistical thresholds, from 3% to a maximum of 6.09%, so falls are always moderate. Also, the trading session has been extended to a duration of five hours and 10 minutes — 9 a.m. to 2:10 p.m. — offering investors new opportunities for arbitrage and positioning. The bourse is also enriched by improving financial establishments and a group of Tunisian enterprises that are growing more structured and better managed, in adherence with wider market norms.

December 3, 2008 0 comments
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By Invitation

Why the bailout should sink

by Ziad Ferzly December 3, 2008
written by Ziad Ferzly

If you spend your time listening to Henry Paulson, treasury secretary of the United States, and Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, you would think that there is no way around the bailout. You get to hear scattered reasons about how if there was no bailout, the entire world would collapse. I am not only talking about the $700 billion, but the $5 trillion that is being spent and pledged via different channels of the US government. A closer look at their actions shows that they have little clue about what they are doing or supposed to do. After the collapse of Bear Stearns, these two men had six months to deal with this disastrous problem, but they seemed to have been caught off-guard when it was Lehman’s turn. Of course, they did not start the whole problem, but they certainly have to deal with it.

Economics is supposed to make sense, but many people seem happy to suspend reason in order to believe things that are obviously not true. Thinking that signing a 30- year loan to a very expensive house that you cannot afford will make you rich is ridiculous. That did happen for a few years. Bubbles do grow, but what bubbles do best is burst. One cannot increase income without increasing output, and signing loan papers does not qualify as output. Now, the big banks are getting bailouts and other financial institutions are trying to become banks to qualify for a bailout. The car makers are next in line. Bad businesses are supposed to restructure, and possibly fail. Banks that lose tens of billions of dollars should not get more money. The stronger, better managed banks will take over the failing ones; life will go on. Of course, we will experience extremely difficult times, but the emerging banks will be more stable and better run. Now what you get are people who had nothing to do with the problem having to support those who squandered their money and investors’ money. So, instead of being allowed to fail, like governments do with any normal business, these unhealthy institutions are being artificially propped up.
What is the lesson for the people who lived within their means, saved and bought only what they can afford when the government tries to bail out those who bought houses they clearly could not afford, then refinanced their homes, taking money out to spend on vacations, new cars and flat screen TVs? They are suckers. They could have lived a very fancy life for many years, and then walk away from their mortgage obligations as most with negative home equity are doing. What is the lesson for the banks that did not engage in this mortgage madness when they see the government bailing out the banks who bet big using obscene amounts of leverage? The lesson is that they are stupid because they should have taken more risk, made totally reckless loans, paid their executives millions of dollars a year for a few years, and have the taxpayers foot the bill for their excesses.
But what about systemic risk? Isn’t it too great, you ask?! Well, what do you expect bankers to say when they go to the government asking for money: “Please pay my bonus and help me keep my job”? No. They say, “If you do not help us, the entire system will collapse.” Well, guess what, the system is collapsing. I am happy that my many banker friends get to keep their jobs for now, but I am talking about the entire economy here, not the fortunes of a few bankers. The failure of major banks would have had a drastic effect on the economy but in the end, it would have been less drastic than the outcome we are going to see. And the recovery, ultimately, would have been quicker than it will now be.
Major economies around the world have entered into a recession at the same time. This is really a unique time in history — a very difficult time for countries, companies and families. That said, this is also a time of great opportunities for those investors who are able to properly analyze what is going on, and decide where, how, when, and how much to invest in different assets.

Ziad Ferzly is managing director at Cedarwood Advisors, which provides strategic, financial and investment management services to companies, investment firms, institutions and governments around the globe.

December 3, 2008 0 comments
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Insurance

GCC & Levant – The fog of financial crisis

by Executive Staff December 2, 2008
written by Executive Staff

The long-term effects of the global financial crisis have already begun to take hold of the industry as lower demand for oil, resulting from the effects of a global financial crisis, has pulled the rug from under the inflated oil revenues the region was lavishing in only a few months ago — albeit with double-digit inflation. Oil-rich governments do have a certain amount of financial cushion hoarded in their sovereign wealth funds, but individual disposable income will suffer as a result of lower cash flow in the region. Oil-poor nations will also be directly affected by less disposable income in places like the GCC, as their residents will be less able to send remittances to countries such as Lebanon, where remittances constitute around 25% of GDP. The decrease in regional disposable income will prove another substantial hurdle for a regional insurance industry already dealing with low demand and penetration.

For an industry that depends heavily on investment revenues, it comes as no surprise that Return on Investments (ROIs) have suffered greatly as a direct result of the global financial crisis. “Some of the largest players’ 2008 Q3 year-on-year income came down by 70% or more,” said Thomas Schellen, publishing editor at Zawya Dow Jones. Previous statements touting the region’s relative immunity to the effects of the financial crisis have proved to be nothing more than wishful thinking, as the Middle East’s equity markets have tumbled subsequent to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, exacerbating an already unstable market environment. As Executive went to press, the Tadawul, the largest Arab bourse by capitalization ($296 billion), had lost half its value in 2008. Other regional equity markets have followed suit creating a situation where the regional insurance industry will be hard pressed to find lucrative investment opportunities to prop up their recent profit losses in 2009. “The whole investment philosophy is changing […] what we see now is that whatever diversification you do or assets you acquire, everything is going down,” explained Farid Chedid, managing director at Chedid Re.

The bottom line dropping out
The perilous financial environment prevailing today has undoubtedly prompted regional insurers to shift their focus from investment income to technical underwriting, but they will be unable to completely retrench from the investment side of the industry, as “there will be no escape from their [insurer’s] financial dependency [and] this will affect the bottom line of insurers very directly,” Schellen said. Thus, all regional insurance companies can do to shield themselves somewhat from the effects of the global financial crisis is to change their bullish investment strategy to one that mitigates risk and, where possible, pulls out completely. “The average rate of investment income will drop heavily and become very conservative,” said Elie Nasnas, director general of AXA Middle East. According to Michael Bitzer, CEO of Daman, “People will start to reevaluate how they invest for retirement. In the past they were investing in real estate and stock markets here and in their own countries, and now I think that they will be looking for a more stable form of investment and return so this might spur more demand for such products.” Bitzer explained that risky investment products will also make up much less of a proportion of insurers portfolios as customers are less willing to embrace risks under the current financial circumstances.
Furthermore, the exposure of the American Insurance Group (AIG) to subprime losses has tarnished the image of insurance agencies in the public consciousness in the West but has yet to significantly affect the regional insurance environment. “People do not realize that this might affect their local insurer,” Bitzer said. “I think that the majority of our clients are not educated enough to understand that even AIG has a problem and maybe they should check with their own insurer.” Moreover, there is a perceived notion that the losses at AIG have aided many of their competitors in the region. “The troubles at AIG have helped their competitors; there is no doubt about that,” said Chedid. However, if the financial crisis continues to affect AIG the outlook for many regional insurance markets does not look promising, as “there are territories where if, God forbid, AIG falls you will have a crisis, like Lebanon, where their market share is huge and this would become a social problem,” Chedid concluded.
Both AIG and Alico Lebanon (a subsidiary of AIG) declined to be interviewed for this article. However, Osama Abdeen, executive vice president of AIG MEMSA released a statement to Executive saying, “AIG’s insurance companies remain financially healthy and are meeting all policyholder obligations. Insurance is a regulated business. Regulators ensure that each AIG member insurance company has adequate assets to back each policy and meet all policyholder obligations. Policyholders are protected and their policies are safe.”

Losses? What losses?
The unwillingness to divulge information to the public and press about profits and losses during a global financial meltdown is suspicious, as well as indicative, of a general industry slowdown and a loss of profit growth. “Numerous companies in the GCC have put off their announcements of their 3rd quarter results as far back as they can, to as much as 45 days, rather than 10 or 20 days” said Schellen. “This is an indicator that they are not really happy about what they will have to say.”
The lack of transparency in an industry that operates using reserves from their clients to attain ROIs seems contradictory to the interests of the industry as a whole. “The success of the insurance industry is linked to its transparency,” Chedid said. “There is definitely a need for better regulation and automatically more access to information.”
Countries like Qatar, Jordan and the UAE increased their transparency rating in 2008 according to Transparency International (TI), the global organization that monitors transparency and corruption. This, however, is not indicative of wider regional reform and the effects of the sector’s opaqueness are being felt in the regional insurance industry.
“One indicator is that there are laggards currently in announcing quarterly results,” said Schellen. “It took a lot of convincing in order for companies to tell us their breakdown figures in terms of the real benchmarks, like how much revenue comes from underwriting and how much comes from investment. In some countries, like the UAE, they won’t do it by line of business; they will give us technical results but will not announce them for each line of business,” he explained. In Lebanon this trend is proving to be a huge impediment to the growth of the local market, as current legislation is deemed inadequate and government is uncooperative in providing information to local insurers.
“Legislation only goes so far as to require companies to publish their financial statements,” said Nasnas. “We used to compile a report for the Lebanese market, but this year we still have not gotten the consolidated figures from the Ministry of Economics for us to carry on in making the report. Many reinsurers and insurers, both regional and international, as well as many international groups are asking for the figures from Lebanon for 2007 and we don’t have them.”
With the need for growth potential as high as ever, one can only hope that governments increase their efforts to increase transparency in the region for the good of the insurance industry and us all.

Propping up the industry
In times of crisis, the need to stay ahead of the competition is even more pertinent to a company’s operations and the insurance industry is no different. “Modernization is a necessity for local companies to be able to survive if we have an economic downturn in the region,” said Chedid.
To stay ahead, many regional organizations are making blanket investments in the modernization of business sectors and processes. One of the main areas in which the regional insurance industry is undergoing an overhaul is in the IT sector.
“Any company that wants to be significant has to beef up their IT and bring it up to global standards — this started in 2008 and will definitely continue in 2009,” Bitzer asserted. “Companies are focusing more on this, especially regional companies, because when you are of a certain size you cannot operate without a very efficient IT system,” added Nasnas.
Another area of the industry where companies are suffering is in the lack of adequate human resources for regional markets to accommodate the needs of the regional insurance industry, which is “an issue weighing heavily on the back of insurance companies in the region,” according to Schellen. Today, except for Lebanon, Egypt and Jordan, most of the insurance staffing is imported from outside the region. Furthermore, within the region itself local talent is being uprooted from countries in the region where insurance penetration and expertise is concentrated to the more lucrative areas in the region, inevitably causing a brain drain on many local markets. “In Lebanon we had a huge HR problem in 2008 because all the people we train get great offers from the Gulf and leave,” Nasnas said. Also, within the Gulf states many traditional staffers from the Indian subcontinent are moving back to their home countries, now that the opportunity cost of returning has decreased as a result of the emerging nature of these economies. The void created further exacerbates the human resource shortage in countries like Lebanon. “There is a need to replace [the workers from South Asia] and they are doing it with highly qualified human resources that mostly come from Lebanon,” Nasnas said.
At the end of the day, however, it is growth which will accommodate for any pitfalls in the insurance industry. The implications of lower oil prices will have their ramifications on growth capabilities across the region in 2009. However, the nature of the regional insurance environment has the ‘wiggle-room’, as well as the willpower to endure the effects of a global financial crisis and come out on the other end looking better off than when this whole mess began.

 

December 2, 2008 0 comments
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The Buzz

Surviving the downturn with intelligent branding

by Joe Ayoub December 1, 2008
written by Joe Ayoub

With the global financial downturn impacting on all markets, everyday business challenges have become compounded by reduced customer spending power, budget constraints and more cautious investor confidence. Companies may be turning to downsizing, or outsourcing to meet these challenges yet their biggest asset — their brand — cannot be approached in the same way. True, they can choose to stop spending on their brand, but in a time of crisis, there is actually no better time to leverage their brand assets to produce greater value.

Not just a name

First, it is important to understand what exactly is a brand. With branding still a fledgling topic in terms of awareness among local businesses, many mistakenly believe it means having a strong name in the market. Companies in Lebanon often think, “I have a famous name and it is selling well so this is a brand.” But often it’s selling because there is no real competition, or the product or service is cheap. When a serious competitor appears, they lose market share. In fact, a brand is a total experience: it’s the name plus the logo plus the brand promise and the delivery of that promise — brand equals trust.

Winners and losers

Competition can quickly sort the winning brands from the losers, but a crisis is another force to reckon with. In an economic downturn, consumer spending falls and purchasing shifts away from those brands which lack a strong bond with their customers. Many Gulf real estate developers have already learned this lesson, having spent lavishly on logos and communications but overlooking the need to bond with consumers. Thus, at the first sign of economic pressure, they began to suffer as investors sold their shares.

The new market reality is that consumers are not only spending less, they are  re-examining every single purchasing decision. One global trend also emerging in Lebanon is for strong brands to reach out to consumers in a way that takes advantage of the economic climate but avoids diluting the brand value. These brands are opening new stores, often referred to as outlets, where customers have access to discounted luxury goods. This drives sales for the known brand but by using an alternative name for the outlet, it avoids diminishing the perception of the brand.

This trend is a prime example of well-positioned brands creating value by driving demand. What all successful brands require is a deep understanding of brand mechanics, how their brands influence customer behavior and choice. Understanding the process of brand value creation is vital not only to drive demand but also to improve decision-making and budget spending.

Digging for value

A successful brand strategy consists of determining the brand essence — which is what the brand stands for — and the brand promise, which is what the customer expects to be delivered when they buy the product or service. The branding process starts with an internal brand audit. Working with the company’s management, the audit sets out to discover the core strengths and fundamentals of the brand, what makes it unique and how it reached its current status. Once this is identified, strategies are devised around the brand foundations.

The corporate strategy starts with a vision, a mission, a set of beliefs and the corporate attitude or personality of the company. Once these are set they should first be shared and believed by all employees working in the company so they can deliver in their daily work.

But branding doesn’t stop there; brand management is essential for it to be effective. If you have a car, you change the oil, maintain and clean it so that it always performs. A brand is the same; you manage its image, its performance, and you keep on improving the service or product formula, so that it consistently delivers on its promise.

Sending the right message

All of these are essential before a company should think about advertising. Companies suffering from ineffective advertising shouldn’t blame the ad agency but look internally and see if they have a clear message, brand promise, employee and customer satisfaction. Only once these are really well covered should they consider advertising.

So, in times of crisis, instead of focusing purely on where and how to cut costs, companies should use the period of uncertainty to look at their brand value and strategy, look internally and question everything they have been doing: At the brand level, are your customer touch points well structured? Are your employees motivated and happy? Do they believe in your brand and your company? Then look outward at the customer: are they having a positive experience with your brand? What should you improve?

With companies increasingly focused on the bottom line, the good news is that branding drives up the brand value; the more positive a connection with customers, the more customers will remain attached to the brand and be prepared to spend money on it. Many companies may be looking to outside investors to inject funds into their business, and with a good brand strategy, they can sell at a premium. Even for companies not looking for outside investment, branding done correctly is one way to ensure that once the crisis eases, not only will they still be standing but they will also be among the first to reap the rewards. 

JOE AYOUB is CEO of BrandCell

December 1, 2008 0 comments
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Society

Lebanon – Aging potential

by Brooke Anderson December 1, 2008
written by Brooke Anderson

A mid a global recession and a decline in wine consumption worldwide, Lebanese are raising their glasses as the country’s $25 million wine sector continues to grow at a steady pace. But experts say that despite Lebanon’s ideal climate for viticulture and a high level of expertise, the sector is still not living up to its potential.

 

World wine consumption dropped by 0.8 percent last year, according to the International Organization of Vine and Wine. But New World wine consumption has increased, and so has Lebanon’s, rising by 1.5 percent during the same period. 

“I think people are searching for a new taste. The wine consumer is always looking for a new product, and Lebanon is benefiting,” says Lebanese restaurant consultant Nagi Morkos. “Worldwide, there is a trend toward ethnic wine and food.”

With domestic consumption still relatively low, the country has relied on exports for most of its profits. Between 2002 and 2003, Lebanese wine exports doubled, and today they continue to increase. According to figures from the Lebanese customs, official wine exports totaled $13.1 million, up from $9.8 million in 2006. The United Kingdom, the biggest importer, bought $4.6 million worth of wine in 2008, compared with $2.6 million in 2006.

Even with the ongoing global recession, some vineyards are opening up to new markets, compensating for a drop in sales to their established buyers.

“We can’t say we’re not affected by the crisis,” says Emile Majdalani, marketing director at Kefraya, one of the country’s top producers. “But our brand is well established and we’re always working on long-term business plans. We’ve never opened so many markets as we have this year — a total of six new countries.”

Kefraya is now exporting to Australia, Benin, Cyprus, Nigeria, Mexico, Poland and Togo.

“We felt the crisis in certain countries, mainly the United States, Russia and Western Europe,” says Majdalani. “But our main markets are more or less compensated. We’ll close the year with no decrease in exports.”

As for wine sales in Lebanon, which has been relatively unscathed by the global financial crisis, he says business is booming, up 15 percent from last year.

From one resilient war-torn country to another

Last year saw a major increase in exports to Iraq, after five years of decline following the US-led invasion in 2003. In 2008, Iraq imported $158,000 worth of Lebanese wine, up from $88,000 in 2006.

“The Iraqi market fluctuates,” says Ramzi Ghosn, winemaker and co-owner of Massaya winery in the Bekaa Valley. “It could be an index of stability in Iraq, according to wine sales.”

Like Kefraya, Massaya is always looking at new markets and trying not to rely too heavily on its established ones.

Lebanese wine is a $25 million industry, large by Middle East standards but small compared with major wine-producing countries such as France, Italy and the US. Since 2005, the number of vineyards in Lebanon has doubled — from 15 to 30. Still, that’s small compared to neighboring Cyprus, whose vineyards number 60, and which attracts an international crowd to its annual wine festival in August.

Observers have pointed to Lebanon’s shift over the past several years from a whisky and arak society to a wine culture, and attribute this to the country’s relative stability over the past couple of years. An example of this is the opening of the first commercial winery in South Lebanon in 2003.

At Karam Winery in Jezzine, founder Habib Karam is basking in the relatively newfound popularity of Lebanese wine.

“Today, if you are a wine importer in America or the UK, it’s your responsibility to have Lebanese wine. Otherwise your list won’t be complete,” says Karam, who exports 50 percent of the 55,000 bottles he produces annually. “We are becoming like Chile and South Africa. Lebanese wines are in demand.”

At Nabise, a boutique winery in Mount Lebanon near Aley, which opened in 1999, the husband and wife co-owners Nazih and Mai Metni proudly note that their vineyard is in an area slowly recovering from sectarian conflict. Since they started a decade ago demand has steadily increased, although this year they admit they have been affected by the recession, as 70 percent of their exports go to the US. But Mai Metni is confident wine is a sustainable export, particularly as there has been a steady increase in foreign demand for their wine ever since they opened. “I’d like to see a hundred wineries open in Lebanon. We need exports for our economy to grow. What else are we going to export? Oil?”

New grapes for an expanding palate

But as demand grows, vineyards continue to open. In April, the Saade Group, a Beirut-based family business that primarily works in real estate and tourism, unveiled their new wine, Marsyas. In November, they will introduce their new Syrian wine Bargylus in the coastal province of Latakkia. Both wineries use their own grapes and are being bottled according to international standards. This is the first time that a company opens a winery in both Lebanon and Syria, another sign of Lebanon’s increased stability.

“Wine is good for Lebanon’s reputation,” says Sandro Saade of Saade Group. “The downside is that there needs to be more regulations that ensure quality.”

For now, most of Lebanon’s commercial wineries buy the majority of their grapes from farmers instead of using those grown at their vineyards.

“Lebanon’s wineries should start investing more in their own vineyards,” says Saade. “All of the wineries have done a good job so far. But we can take the wine-making sector to the next level.”

Despite the competition between Lebanon’s various wineries, Saade hopes to see more cooperation between them.

“What is a pity is that nobody is coordinating,” he says. “In Lebanon, we have everything on our side, and we’re not exploiting it. We need a common vision for the country.”

Unfortunately, right now, he says, “There’s a lack of strategic thinking in Lebanon for everything, including wine. There’s no Lebanese flag on Lebanese wine.”

But this lack of national unity might not be entirely the fault of Lebanon’s wineries.

In the summer of 2006, a National Institute of Wine was slated for opening but has been put on hold ever since the July 2006 war. The purpose of the institute, which would be a partnership between the ministry of agriculture and the private sector’s Union Viticole du Liban (UVL) would be to study wine and enforce regulations to protect the quality of Lebanese wine.

But as the project continues to get delayed, so wanes the momentum to get it started.

The UVL, which is supposed to represent all of Lebanon’s wine producers has only managed to attract 11 wineries, at least two of which have left the union over the past two years. They cite the group’s lack of vision and unity.

 Growing the fruits of success

However, despite the challenges facing Lebanon’s wine industry the ministry of agriculture sees it as a success story. “The wine industry is better than others in Lebanon. There’s competition,” says Mariam Eid, head of the agro-industry department at the ministry of agriculture. “You can’t compare it with olive oil, where they still use out-of-date technology. Wine has an important future in Lebanon. I hope the institute will open soon.”

Other people see the future of Lebanon’s wine industry in “enotourism.” Over the past year, Lebanon’s producers have stepped up their efforts to attract tourists to their vineyards, although it appears to be without coordination. The Saade Group is planning a hotel and wine museum in the Bekaa Valley, both slated to open in 2011. Kefraya says it is also opening a wine museum, which it expects to open next year. Carlos Adem, owner and founder of Chateau Faqra, a boutique winery in Kfardebian, is building a small hotel near his vineyard, which he plans to open next year.

This appears to fit well with a recent initiative by the Ministry of Tourism to promote rural Lebanon.

“Wine tourism is a part of agro-tourism in Lebanon,” says Nada Sardouk Ghandour, general director of the Ministry of Tourism. “When people see the wine label, they also see the name of the village.”

The home front first, then the world

But with all of the recent international recognition of Lebanese wine, it’s the Lebanese themselves who might be the ones preventing their local wines from receiving the domestic praise it deserves.

“In Lebanon there’s a snobbish attitude that everything imported is better,” says Ghosn of Massaya. “For them, it’s not always about pleasure. It’s about having French wine at the table so they can say, ‘I drink French wine.’”

Carlos Khachan, a Lebanese wine expert who leads tours of Lebanon’s vineyards with his group Club Grappe, agrees. He believes that if the Lebanese themselves have confidence in their own country’s products, non-Lebanese will follow suit.

“[The late industry minister] Pierre Gemayal told people to buy national products. If you love your country, you should consume its products,” Khachan says. “Why not apply that to wine?”

If Lebanon is to succeed in attracting more domestic consumption it will have to do so soon as tariffs on foreign wine have been decreasing, making the domestic market even more competitive. Several years ago, tax on foreign wine in Lebanon was 70 percent, but it is now only 40 percent.

“They keep on reducing taxation. In two years, there will be no duties [on foreign wine coming into Lebanon],” predicts Adem. “Lebanon will face more international competition. But this will make us produce more high-quality wine. With taxes getting lower on imported wine, we’ll have no choice.”

Still, to really get Lebanese wine on the map, it will take more than good quality, but also good name recognition. Michael Karam, author of the book “The Wines of Lebanon” agrees that “Lebanon will never make a genuine impact on the international wine market unless it embarks upon a proper generic campaign. By that I mean selling Lebanon — not Musar or Kefraya or Ksara or Massaya — as a wine producer.”

If Lebanon does not address this soon, he believes Lebanese wine “will remain nothing more than an ethnic curiosity, living on the reputation of Chateau Musar, which only appeals to a few devotees and does not represent the new generation of Lebanese wine. We are being left behind.”

He notes that even Brazil, which is not known as a wine-producing country, has a national wine campaign.

“We need to take on the world with our six million bottles, but if we don’t act soon we will have missed the boat,” says Karam.

December 1, 2008 0 comments
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Editorial

The silver lining of crisis

by Yasser Akkaoui December 1, 2008
written by Yasser Akkaoui

It’s that time of year again, but this time the party hats and horns are being distributed with a bit more caution than in previous years. Depending on who you listen to, the world is sinking into an economic crisis that could match the great depression that followed the Wall Street crash of 1929.

Certainly as I sit here in Dubai, writing this last editorial for 2008, the buzzword is restructuring. Every company is doing it in preparation for a 2009 that is yielding little in terms of economic and financial outlook. This was an economic crisis that began in America and it is the ripples of this crisis that are now beginning to lap the shores of the Arabian Gulf. Whether it becomes a tidal wave remains to be seen but cautious businessmen and financiers are battening down the hatches nonetheless.

This current restructuring will be accompanied by the inevitable layoffs that will see the departure of many skilled people from countries — Lebanon, Jordan and India — with a tradition of exporting human talent, depriving those economies of much needed remittances.

The potential upside to this rather dark development is that they will no doubt eventually be deployed to areas of fresh opportunity, such as Iraq, a nation that Executive has earmarked for considerable growth in 2009. It is a country rich with oil, minerals, agriculture and an educated workforce. It is high risk, but high-risk means high reward. As companies in the Gulf try to speculate by how much revenues will drop in 2009 – 10%, 20% or even 50% — such opportunities cannot be scoffed at.

Executive knows a bit about crises. It knows that publishing is not just about the good times when the ad revenues come in thick and fast. We stood by our readers during the 2006 Lebanon war and now we do not flinch in standing by our loyal subscribers across the Levant, the Gulf, Sudan and the Maghreb in this latest test of will and character.

Executive reiterates its commitment to the private sector, be it, banking, real estate development or trade and encourages the tireless pursuit of sustainable development. It is in these areas that we will channel our own energy; for the passion of those with the vision to achieve new goals will outlast even the gloomiest economic downturn.

Yasser Akkaoui Editor-in- chief

December 1, 2008 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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