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North Africa

Beyond the coast

by Executive Staff March 14, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Figures recently published by CETO (The Association of French Tour Operators) and FRAM travel agency appeared to paint a rosy picture of the Tunisian tourism sector in 2007. CETO’s figures showed an increase in French tourists of 3.8% for Tunisia, compared to a decline for Morocco by 2.8%. By comparison, FRAM’s figures had French tourism to Tunisia up 5%, and Morocco down between 2% and 3%.

However, all is not well in Tunisian tourism. Behind these apparently impressive figures lie some worrying trends. Arrivals from other European countries were down — Germany by 6% to 514,000; Italy by 4.3% to 440,000; and the UK by 11% to 312,000. Moreover, average spending per head in Tunisia is only $333, well under half of Egypt’s $850 and less than a third of Morocco’s $1,040. Growth in the sector is down to just 3% annually.

Tunisia’s problems are primarily structural. The poor level of returning tourists is often attributed to second-rate service and badly maintained facilities in many hotels. Even the country’s monetary authority, the Central Bank, said in its annual report that, despite efforts by the public authorities results remain below target and “operators in this sector need to focus more closely on improving the quality of services, which remains the key to non price competitiveness.”

The need to diversify

Other experts see different problems. Fitch Ratings believes Tunisia’s tourism sector now suffers from the massive drive to increase bed numbers which has resulted in a non-diversified over-capacity, based almost entirely on seaside hotels, and the hoteliers’ resulting dependence on international tour operators for selling their rooms. One industry insider told OBG that “despite diversifying, Tunisia has not been able to shake off its image as a mass tourism destination.” Constrained by its seasonality, Tunisia must further diversify tourist activities and infrastructure by maximizing its resources. “The means and abilities exist but Tunisia does not develop and promote its tourism sector efficiently enough at the international level,” the same observer said. Poor promotional schemes have also brought criticism from the Federation Tunisien des Hoteliers. Federation president Muhammad Belajouza says promotional budgets are not an expenditure, but an investment, which is profitable even in the very short term. For each 1,000 dinars ($770) invested in tourism, he said “we can get at least double back in convertible currency. This has been proved in the past”.

The national tourism authorities know the sector must do better, and are attempting to tackle the problem. The National Tourism Office and the Ministry of Tourism have set up three working groups with the hotel federation, focusing on quality, training programs and the sector’s financial situation. The national Mise à Niveau (upgrading) program has also turned its attention to tourism, with 45 hotels selected for the first phase of the project. Ultimately, 150 hotels will be renovated as part of this program. President Ben Ali has turned his attention to the sector also, calling for the development of a national strategy to take the industry up to 2016.

However, if Tunisia truly wishes to compete with Morocco, it must diversify beyond seaside tourism and make more of its enviable cultural heritage. Currently only about 10% of foreign visitors take the time to step outside their resorts, while the consumption of cultural heritage isn’t much better among the Tunisians themselves. The historical site of Carthage port is currently little more than a ditch, and tourists wishing to sample the delights of the Punic coast must contend with taxi touts and poorly regulated “guides”.

Steps have been made in this area: in 2001 the World Bank financed a $25 million Cultural Heritage Project, and more recently $30 million has been allocated for the development of Carthage-Sidi Bou Said National Park. Compared with the billions earmarked for real estate developments half an hour down the road in Tunis, these are distinctly small fry. A truly forward strategy by the government would see much more money invested into these sites, and more work done to promote them.

It is certainly possible, and there are signs that Tunisia may be heading in the right direction. On the picturesque island of Djerba — Homer’s Isle of the Lotus Eaters — one has a plethora of over-priced, second-rate and poorly-maintained mass-market seaside hotels to choose from. Or, for less than $30 a night including breakfast, you could stay in a renovated funduq such as the Erriadh in Houmt Souk, and experience some authentic Tunisian charm.

March 14, 2008 0 comments
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North Africa

Downstream energy industries

by Executive Staff March 14, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Algeria is moving to strengthen its position in downstream energy industries, part of a program to further develop the value added component of its energy and natural resources and increase local employment opportunities, especially in outlying regions. Total investment in the energy sector over the next four years is expected to reach $45 billion.

Over the past 18 months, Algeria has launched a series of projects to develop new petrochemical plants or to upgrade existing facilities. One of the major planks in the campaign to expand downstream capacity is a massive ammonia and urea fertilizer production plant to be located at Arzew in the country’s west.

The new plant is a joint venture between Algeria’s state-owned hydrocarbons company, Sonatrach, and Orascom Construction Industries (OCI) of Egypt. The Egyptian firm will act as lead project developer, with a 51% stake in the development and total investment is expected to be $746 million. When completed in 2010, the plant will produce 1 million tons of ammonia/urea fertilizer a year, along with an additional 700,000 tons of ammonia. Local press reported on January 28, 2008, that as many as 7,000 jobs will be created during the construction phase of the project, more than twice the original estimate. The 33-hectare site of the facility is located close to the port of Arzew, which has been extensively developed since the 1960s as a hub for Algeria’s petrochemical industry. The site is home to several large gas liquefaction and LPG units, which will ensure the new ammonia plant will have access to the necessary hydrogen feedstock. Last year a joint venture, Sorfert, was incorporated to manage the operations of the facility. The company brings together two of the biggest players in the Algerian economy: Sonatrach, the state-owned gas and petroleum operator, is the country’s largest company, while Orascom is one of the leading foreign investors in Algeria, with holdings totaling around $10 billion.

Poised to become leader in production

Ammonia and urea are produced by taking nitrogen from the atmosphere and lining it with hydrogen from hydrocarbons, a method known as the Haber process. Natural gas is the most cost effective and environmentally-friendly feedstock for this process. Algeria, with strong gas reserves, has the wherewithal to become a market leader in fertilizer production — domestic gas costs are around 12% of those in Europe or in the States.

According to Osama Bishai, OCI’s director of projects, rising gas prices are resulting in the shifting of gas-based industries from the developed world to developing countries.

“Lots of plants in Europe are being shut down and their markets are being served by new plants in Algeria, Egypt and the Gulf,” Bishai said in an interview with local media last December. OCI’s involvement in the fertilizer industry is fairly recent. In October 2005 it gained a 50% stake in Middle East Petroleum Company (MEPCO), which is currently constructing a 2000 ton per day ammonia plant in Ain Sukhna, Egypt, through its 60% owned subsidiary Egyptian Basic Industries Corp (EBIC). This $540 million plant is due in early 2009.

Algeria already has a chemical fertilizer industry. An existing ammonia production facility, sited at Arzew, has an annual output of 365,000 tons and an associated urea plant able to turn out 146,000 tons per year. However, the original facilities were built in the early 1970s and, though upgraded in the late 1980s, do not have the same capacity or modern technology as the new plant.

Demand for chemical fertilizers is growing, and OCI and Sonatrach are confident their joint venture will be a profitable one. In addition to the advantage of low production expenses, it will benefit from Algeria’s proximity to European markets, meaning that Sorfert can keep shipping costs down. Bishai said that OCI was looking at an annual return on its investment of between 16% and 18%. “There are good margins now and we are very optimistic about the future,” he said. “Once we are in production, we expect to enjoy relatively good margins, and if shipping costs continue to be high we will have a major advantage.” With global fertilizer prices at near record highs, prompted by increased demand due to the drought conditions experienced in many parts of the world and soaring gas prices, Algeria’s policy of investing in downstream industries could result in a rich harvest.

March 14, 2008 0 comments
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North Africa

For the love of cows

by Executive Staff March 14, 2008
written by Executive Staff

For three years now peace has reigned in Juba, administrative center of South Sudan, which as a result has expanded rapidly, as people from all of southern Sudan’s numerous and varied ethnic groups are drawn to the new capital. But whatever the tribe — pastoralist, agriculturalist or a mixture of the two — everyone wants at least one cow to be slaughtered for their wedding. “The problem is that a good bull can cost over $1,200 and even a cow something like $500,” a local government official said. Similar figures are cited all over town and other parts of the south are only moderately cheaper. Even for the newly moneyed southerners, those who have attained government contracts or who form part of the massively oversized, oil-funded civil service, a cow for the wedding feast is a major expense. The problem is, explained the official, that southerners would rather keep or trade their cows for marriage than sell them for cash. It is an attitude the southern government is trying to change into a more capitalist perspective as semi-autonomous South Sudan struggles to join regional and international markets after decades of civil conflict.

A plentiful supply

High meat-costs and unreliable sourcing also affect Juba’s larger camps and hotels, erected to provide accommodation for the capital’s thousands of new residents since the 2005 North-South peace deal. Many still fly in meat despite being hit with at least 56% import tax at the airport. Juba’s residents, used to paying $2.50 for a semi-warm beer and $1 for four tomatoes, may not find the sky-high cost of meat — a hand-sized lump costing $8 in the market — any more surprising. But post-conflict southern Sudan has no factories or commercial farms. Beer and tomatoes have to be trucked in on the bad roads that link it to neighboring Uganda. Cows, on the other hand, could hardly be more plentiful. John Ogoso Kanisio, director general of planning, investment and marketing at the Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries (MARF), estimates that there are probably 8-10 million cattle in the south, making their numbers equal to the human population that is still yet to be confirmed in an April 2008 census. This 1:1 ratio is probably the highest in the world.

Meat or marriage?

“You have to pay cows for marriage, you cannot get it for free or money,” said Awut Nyandeng, who lives in Juba but comes from the pastoralist areas to the north. She has been offered over 400 cows already, which she declined even though it is impressive. The man was too old and she wants to pursue her career before getting married. But for a woman of education, beauty or good family, negotiations between the future in-laws often result in bride prices of more than 200 head of cattle. The major challenge for MARF is to turn hearts and minds away from this stalwart and long-engraved position on cattle to one that can beef up an economy currently painfully dependent on crude oil. Peacetime has turned many minds to marriage, long waited-for during the more than 20 years of conflict. Others, with new jobs, think about a second or third wife. And many in-laws are demanding cows promised as bride-price during the long war years. This backlog, together with a sudden increase in ready cash, has sent the price of cattle sky high, explained Kanisio. “Marriage without cows is as stable and good,” ventured Festo Kumbo, MARF’s minister, at a press conference last year where he asked journalists to help him turn southerners’ to the meat market. He said that selling cattle to market was the only solution to what he sees as an upcoming problem of overgrazing. Swollen herds have already begun to damage some of the South’s extensive pastures in some areas. “We need to re-educate people about using cows for economic gain. Let us use our animals to bring us more money, rather than keeping them in high numbers.”

Uganda trade

The hike in southern prices has reversed a previous flow of cattle out of Sudan to Uganda. Since the January 2005 peace deal Sudanese have imported cows in unprecedented numbers. During the war, southern Sudan supplied northern Uganda with more than 2,000 head of cattle a month. Now cattle are coming in from Uganda. “We have more animals than Uganda but they are bringing them here. Our market is more lucrative because we have made them expensive,” Kumbo said, adding that Ugandans are free to bring in their cattle under a regional free trade agreement, COMESA. He also has other grumbles about the South’s dependency on Uganda. Southern Sudan’s great inland delta — the swampy Sudd — together with the vast Nile contains as many fish as Uganda’s intensely harvested Lake Victoria, he believes. But still, fish are being trucked up, despite the challenges of sometimes flooded roads served by rusting colonial bridges, to be sold in the South’s main towns. As the fish example shows, the lack of commercial animal trade in southern Sudan, massively alienated during the conflict years, is also partly a lack of experience and systems and not just attitudes. Others have said that the shift in cattle trade — with cows now being brought in from Uganda — may also have political roots. Continuing peace talks between the government of Uganda and the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) together with a ceasefire agreement have resulted in vastly improved security in northern Uganda, the area that borders southern Sudan. Displaced people are moving back home and trade between Uganda’s north and the rest of the country has increased. Northern Uganda now has more options and is less reliant on meat from south Sudan and those with a surplus look across the border to sell.

Cow banks

South Sudan has a problem with cash liquidity, especially in regional areas just beginning to open up to development, explained Patrick Bettersworth from the southern-owned Nile Commercial Bank. Part of the problem, he thinks, is that for many southerners, the value of money in the bank is just not trusted. “People like to see their wealth. They don’t want a bit of paper saying that they are rich,” he said. Cows are still considered the best way to invest in some parts of the South. As Kanisio pointed out, “We lack banks, so the best way for people in the risky areas is to buy cows.” He sees the vast and river-fed plains of the South as ripe for raising cattle commercially, a practice that the South’s pastoralist tribes have been perfecting for thousands of years. Northern Sudan used to be dependent on the South for cattle and Kaniso sees the whole of drier northern Africa, like Egypt and Libya, as well as the Gulf as potential big buyers. “And our cows are 100% organic!” he brightly exclaimed. But serious investors will probably wait until the World Organization for Animal Health declares Sudan free of the cattle disease rinderpest. “Our hope is that the whole country is declared rinderpest free by end-2008.”

March 14, 2008 0 comments
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GCC

The Arab future of Senegal

by Executive Staff March 14, 2008
written by Executive Staff

In the context of the Organization of the Islamic Conference summit in Dakar, in March 2008, billions of Arab petrodollars have poured into Senegal to help realize its ambition to become the “Gateway to Africa”. However, boosting the country’s infrastructure may not be sufficient, as long as major obstacles such as the country’s energy crisis, are not tackled simultaneously.

Situated on the western-most tip of Africa, Senegal is a predominantly Muslim country, although its Sufi-inspired conception of Islam can hardly be compared to what is practiced in most of mainstream Arabia. Still, the 11th summit of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) is set to take place on March 8-14 in the country’s capital Dakar.

Founded in 1969, the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) represents 57 member states on four continents, which makes it the world’s second largest inter-governmental organization after the United Nations. Its role on the world stage is largely symbolic, yet for the hosting nation it is an ideal platform to put itself in the limelight and attract foreign investment. Senegal has done just that, and is likely to continue to do so as its president, Abdoulaye Wade, over the next three years will travel the world as temporary head of the OIC.

In sharp contrast to decades of semi-socialist rule, President Wade, nicknamed “the builder,” increasingly attempts to liberalize the economy. His dream is to make Senegal a trade and transport hub, as well as the natural gateway to Africa, primarily by boosting the country’s infrastructure. BOT-contracts and private-public partnerships (PPP) appear to be the tools of choice.

Aided by a number of Arab governments and financial institutions, Senegal’s National Agency for the Organization of the Islamic Conference (ANOCI) had a budget of some $750 million to be able to welcome the some 5,000 expected conference delegates in style. Thus, to improve circulation within the Greater Dakar area, ANOCI supervised the construction and rehabilitation of some 40 km of roads, while five luxury hotels and the King Fahd Conference Center have been either renovated, or built from scratch.

Tripling tourism figures

According to Karim Wade, ANOCI head and son of the president, the increase in hotel capacity “not only responds to the immediate needs of the Islamic Conference, but will help Senegal become one of the main tourist destinations in Africa.” In 2007, already some 500,000 tourists visited the country’s beaches, yet the government hopes to triple that figure by 2010.

However, despite all good intentions, in early 2008 it seemed hardly likely that roads and hotels will be completed before the start of the IOC summit. Consequently, with all but 2,500 hotel rooms available in Dakar, ANOCI decided to rent all available hotel rooms between the outlying town of Bakar and the tourist resort Saly, while two cruise ships were chartered to provide extra lodging off-shore.

In any case, Arab investors seem to have discovered the West African beltway, as investments related to the OIC summit are but the tip of the iceberg in terms of petrodollars traveling westward. On April 4, 2007, construction commenced of a new international airport at Diass, a city some 45 kilometer south of Dakar. Built by the Saudi BinLadin Group, the $500 million airport will have a capacity of 3 million travelers and a 3,500-meter long runway that is capable of handling the world’s largest airplanes, including the Airbus A380. Named after a political hero from the past, the Blaise Diagne International Airport (BDIA) is due to be completed by 2010.

According to Modou Khaya, BDIA managing director, there are several sound reasons for the massive investment. “The current international airport of Dakar is heavily congested, and suffers from a lack of comfort and parking space,” Khaya said. As a result of an annual increase of some 5% to 10% in passenger traffic, in 2007 Dakar airport welcomed some 1.8 million people, while it originally had been laid out for only 600,000.

Once located at the empty northern tip of the Dakar peninsula, the current Dakar International Airport today finds itself surrounded by the rapidly expanding suburbs of the Senegalese capital, causing not only problems in terms of access. According to Khaya, the existing airport could only be expanded by extending one of the runways into the sea, which proved far more costly than building a whole new airport.

“Relocating the airport south of the capital will help decongest the capital and offer better access to the tourist area of Mbour and the Diamnado special economic zone,” Khaya added. “It will also allow for the some 800 hectare of territory it currently occupies to be developed into the capital’s leading commercial district.”

The first technical studies for Dakar’s future business district have been completed, but so far it remains on the drawing board. The Diamnado Integrated Special Economic Zone (DISEZ) however, is to become reality, as the Senegalese government on December 15, 2007, signed a contract with Jafza International, a subsidiary of Dubai Holding. Situated some 20 km south of Dakar, DISEZ will occupy a total surface area of 10,000 hectares to offer an investor-friendly, low-tax zone to attract foreign investors.

With a focus on industry and logistics, DISEZ will host up to 1,000 companies and is hoped to create 130,000 direct and indirect jobs over the next two decades. It should be noted, however, that the project is to be built in four phases, the first of which will be completed by 2012. If, for whatever reason, the first or second phase does not produce the hoped for success, further construction will likely be halted.

DISEZ is not Dubai Holding’s only project in the region. Having already invested billions in Tunisia and Morocco, the Emirati giant seems to have discovered life beyond Gibraltar’s “Pillars of Hercules” and firmly set foot in West Africa. On October 8, 2007, another of its subsidiaries, global port operator DP World, signed a 25-year concession to develop and operate the container terminal at Dakar Port and construct, and develop a second terminal. DP World pledged to invest over $700 million between 2008 and 2011.

Constructing the “Port du Futur”

In a first phase of development, $163 million will be spent to modernize the infrastructure of the existing port. Construction is to start in 2008 and will be completed by 2010. The aim is to double the terminal’s capacity from some 375,000 containers in 2006 to around 550,000 by 2010. In a second phase, DP World intends to construct and manage a whole new container terminal known as the “Port du Futur”. With a price tag of some $476 million, this future port is expected to become operational in early 2011, and with a depth of 15.5 meters it will able to handle the latest generation of container carriers.

To many observers, it came quite as a surprise that newcomer DP World had managed to beat, among other rivals, CMA-CGM. The French operator had been present in Senegal for over 75 years and the country, a former French colony, still nurtures strong economic ties with France. The unexpected decision illustrates to what extent DP World, the world’s 4th largest port operator, has become a force to reckon with, as well as the fact that Senegal, in its drive to attract foreign investments, is arguably switching hats: from the French to the Muslim gateway of Africa.

However, in spite of the billions of dollars invested in a new airport, port, special economic zone, roads and hotels, it yet remains to be seen if investments will pay off. Of course, Senegal has its advantages. It is relatively safe and secure, and has enough to offer in terms of tourism. Regarding logistics, it is the most western point of Africa and in that sense could be seen as a natural gateway.

However, the world’s main trade routes are located in the northern hemisphere, between Asia, Europe and the US. Therefore, one wonders where the projected increase in trade for Dakar port is to come from. Brazil? Argentina? What’s more, with an average annual income of some $1,700, Senegal itself offers a limited market. And the same is true for the neighboring countries Mali and Burkina Faso.

Most importantly however, infrastructure consists of more than building ports, roads and hotels. For investors to flock to Senegal there will have to some sort of energy security. Yet the country has no major hydrocarbon reserves to speak of and consequently, in the wake of the international oil price hike it witnessed an energy crisis without precedent. In a way, Senegal is the archetypical example of the devastating consequences of the current oil prices for the developing world.

Between 2000 and 2006, the country’s fuel imports increased from some $400 million to $762 million, the equivalent of 40% of its export revenues. Secondly, the country’s only refinery and handful of power plants suffer from a desperate lack of investment. Due to the rise in oil prices, the national refinery was forced to close down for nine months in 2006, following an acute cash crisis. Help may be on the way, however, as Senegal has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Iranian Petroleum Company to invest in the country’s refining capacities

Meanwhile, while only 16% of the countryside has electricity, Dakar and other cities face regular power cuts, as the national electricity company, Senelec, too faces a major cash deficit “The main problem is that for decades no investments have been made,” said Ibrahim Thiam, chairman of the Electricity Sector Regulation Commission (ESRC). “As a result, Senelec faces a lack of capacity and an outdated infrastructure. In addition, the plants operate on expensive imported fuels.”

Senegal’s power plants operate on an energy efficiency rate of 30%, which means that 70% of every liter of fuel oil goes up in smoke. For years, the World Bank has called upon the Senegalese government to privatize the electricity sector, yet largely due to the outdated equipment, so far no (Islamic) investors have presented themselves.

And thus, at the start of the OIC in Dakar in March, Senegal finds itself between hope and fear. On the one hand, a glorious future lies ahead, symbolized by a state-of-the-art airport, port and free trade zone. On the other hand, the country sits on an energy bomb, which may one day blow away all dreams and ambitions. For let us not forget what a dissatisfied population can do. When President Wade, with an eye on the OIC, ordered that street sellers were no longer allowed in Dakar, the population answered with such a massive demonstration that he was forced to reverse his decision. Some things never change, they say.

March 14, 2008 0 comments
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GCC

Prime Pictures

by Executive Staff March 14, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Talaat Captan is not exactly the typical Hollywood producer. He started his career as a domestic and international distributor of motion pictures, moving into the rarified airs of movie production. His films have ranged from science fiction (Prototype) to psychological thrillers (Living in Peril) and action (Ground Control). Captan has also mastered the technical side of movie production as owner of companies such as Air Hollywood, Apex Stocks and Prime Pictures

E How did you get into the movie industry?

I left Lebanon for the United States 30 years ago. After graduating from business school, I worked in a company that specialized in production as well as distribution of movies. I then made the leap to the field of international movie production and licensing. The movie industry is an extremely challenging one. I did not want to work in the studio system where politics reign and preferred to achieve my objectives on my own, by launching my own production house. I also served as a director on the board of the American Film Association (AFMA) for four years, but I lost my seat on the board after 9/11, when things started to become very difficult for Arabs working in the American film industry.

E You also own Air Hollywood, how does this particular activity complement your other operations?

While producing the movie Ground Control with Kiefer Sutherland — which looks into the world of air traffic controllers — I identified the industry need for proper airplane mock-up studios, which prompted my decision to open Air Hollywood. The company features four aviation-themed stages, seven planes and a fully dedicated prop rental and fabrication house. Air Hollywood attracts major Hollywood studios as well as production companies working on films, television programs or commercials. Sets can be booked for $14,000 per day, with average rental periods varying between two to three days. However, some productions have used our sets for more than three months. Certain scenes of Lost have been shot in our studios.

All my companies are related to the entertainment industry. As an example Apex Stock is a stock footage company that provides users with scenes of airplane landing or take off, horses running wild, or Paris in the 1950s that can be used in movies. We also own the TWA 65mm library, which is a great asset in the movie industry. Apex has partnerships with big industry names, such as Getty images and National Geographic, among others.

E With two companies in the US, what brought you to the Middle East?

I am a co-founder of Prime Pictures, a company that specializes in theatrical and home entertainment distribution for a variety of studios such as Paramount, Dreamworks, and Hallmark among others. We also own a number of theatrical screens in the Middle East, with Cinema City in Beirut as part of our landmark projects. In addition, we are opening another mega theater complex in Jordan as well as one in Dubai, in the new Merdef area. We strive to achieve excellence in the theater industry, this can only be attained by providing audiences with the right theater atmosphere as well as a unique viewing experience. The Middle East is a market that is growing steadily. I would like to contribute to the regional industry by producing movies filmed in this part of the world. I have also two movie projects lined up for now, however I am still not at liberty to disclose any information.

E Are producers predominantly brought into a movie or do they seek projects?

It is a bit of both. In the United States, things are much easier because you can depend on the Writers Guild: authors either come up with a story or are asked to write a “treatment” for producers. If the treatment is approved by producers, it will be turned into a script. In the Arab region, the process is much more difficult, as the environment is less structured. Many Arab scriptwriters also find inspiration in other movies, without trying to rely on their talent.

E What management qualities are most important for movie producers?

A producer is the person who holds the whole movie together and handles more particularly its financial aspect. I am familiar with both sides of the movie business, namely production and distribution. A producer has to constantly keep in mind the marketable features of a movie and if, and how, it will appeal to audiences around the world. He needs to consider the movie’s performance in the main markets, foremost the Unites Sates, Germany, and Japan, so forth and be a few steps ahead of everyone. Approaches also vary among different movie genres. As an example, horror pictures might be easy to produce but will eliminate a certain category of audience, due to their nature. Comedy is the hardest type of movie to produce, because it very difficult to make Americans, Japanese and French laugh at the same joke. In terms of production, the US always represents 50% of a movie’s budget, as it usually generates a large proportion of a film’s revenues. As a rule, it is very difficult to produce a movie for less than $10 million, because it will be only viewed in a handful of theaters in the United States.

E How do you perceive the Arab cinema industry?

The Arab movie industry still lags behind other countries. One look at international movie festivals will reveal the relatively low participation of Arab productions. In comparison, Iranian movies are faring much better than Arab productions and are regularly featured in festivals around the world. I personally loved the Lebanese movie Caramel, which was full of talent. The region is in need of such movies. I have also noticed during my frequent trips around the world that Arabic movies are never shown on international TV channels. Arabic producers need to start working on international movies that can be released in English, which will add to their marketability.

E What changes do Arab countries need to introduce to further develop their movie industry?

Censorship is an essential issue that needs to be addressed around the region. Scripts have to be submitted to governing bodies in order to obtain authorizations for filming. In other countries, movie scripts will only be submitted against a government’s financial contribution to the film. The industry is also plagued by low budgets, which amount very often to less than $1 million, which is ridiculously low. However, large budgets do not necessarily guarantee a film’s success, because it also depends on proper budget management. Governments need to encourage movie funding and try to attract trustworthy producers by either offering tax cuts, facilitating the work environment or offering more affordable accommodation.

E What countries in the Middle East do you believe have the most potential in terms of movie production?

Lebanon offers great opportunities but its movie industry is hindered by its unstable situation. Libya is one country in the region that has not been filmed for more than 30 years! It is time to feature its beautiful landscapes in movies around the world.

E What can be the role of Arab movie producers on the international level?

They can promote a positive image of the Middle East. In the United States people can’t differentiate between Arabs, whether they are Iraqi, Lebanese or Palestinians. Arabs are many cultures within one. Movies can help educate people and change their perceptions.

E Where do you see the movie industry in a few years?

Technology is growing at an incredible rate. In a few years, people will be able to view more than 500 movies by using a small box. I think advances in special effects will significantly affect the film industry and movie making will become less and less time consuming.

March 14, 2008 0 comments
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GCC

Making movies

by Executive Staff March 14, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Away from the media blitz, the glam and the blinding spotlights inherent to Hollywood, Arab movie production has embarked on its own journey through the seventh art. Talent is everywhere, emerging in the far corners of the Arab world. Executive sheds new light on the region’s industry.

The movie and TV-series production industry in the Arab world is still not sufficiently developed as most features are still imported from the West, said Hani Tamba, director of After Shave (Beyrouth après rasage) and soon-to-be-released Melodrama Habibi. “Unfortunately, it seems that much of Arab energy and funds are poured into the production of video clips instead of films.”

Egypt remains the largest producer of movie and television series, with most other regional countries far behind. Up to 80% of Arab production originates on the Nile. But change is afoot. Recently, a number of Lebanese have gone into producing or co-producing feature films, even if others keep focusing on producing TV commercials and video clips because of their large price tags, with Lebanese productions ranking among the best, according to Tamba.

For the love of the industry

The movie industry exhibits a two-dimensional typology, according to Sabine Sidawi, Lebanese producer of Taxi Service, ZoZo and Yanousak. On one end of the spectrum there are the  large productions such as those shot in Hollywood, Bollywood and Egypt, and on the other end movies shot by independent producers. “Lebanon falls in the latter category which boasts very artistic movies, but lack adequate funding. Many directors, producers or technicians are not in the movie business in Lebanon for the money, but simply for their love of the industry,” she reckons.

The average cost of a movie is difficult to assess as prices vary from one project to the other. Tamba explained that most Lebanese films have relatively modest budgets with directors often producing their movies independently, while a lucky few are able to co-produce with foreign funds. “It is difficult to provide a precise figure, but some movies have been priced well under a $1 million.”

Mario G. Haddad, chairman of Les Fils de Georges Haddad & Co., owner of Empire Cinemas and president of Empire International, exclusive distributors of Colombia, 20th Century Fox and MGM in the Levant and the Gulf countries, estimates movie budgets in Egypt to fluctuate between $1-2 million, with some going up to $5-8 million. “Egypt is certainly a giant in terms of movie production and market size, when compared to other Arab countries,” he explained. Of course, the country’s sheer size is by itself a massive advantage, as movies appeal to a wide audience. In terms of viewing, Egypt and the Gulf countries, where movie theaters are one of the prime places of entertainment, are the biggest markets, with around 7 million entry tickets sold every year in the UAE alone.

For Sidawi, governments play a major role in promoting their national movie industry and liberalizing regulations, reducing red tape and lowering taxation on the film industry. As this will encourage a new breed of producer, as has been  the case in countries such as Tunisia and Morocco. “The king of Morocco is helping support the movie industry. He has recently established a new movie studio and post-production centers, as well as handing out around $300,000 to jumpstart any film project,” underlined the producer who believes such measures will lead to the creation of an independent Moroccan movie industry in a few years.

Similar measures have also been undertaken by the king of Jordan. According to Sawsan Darwazi, managing partner of Jordanian production house Pioneer, the country’s movie industry is still at a nascent stage. Significant improvements have been achieved with the creation of the Royal Film Commission, which sponsors the film industry. As she pointed out, “Recently, two universities started to offer communication art and media courses, which, in a few years, will undoubtedly help promote a new breed of producers, directors and technicians.”

Finding the financial backing

However, the Jordanian producer admits that the movie industry is yet to fully blossom, as most productions are either comprised of drama series or made-for-TV films. “The only recent big Jordanian production is Captain Abou Raed, which was financed by private individuals who pooled their funds.”

Different techniques also play into movie production. Sidawi underlines that movies are usually shot using 35 or 60mm films, or using video footage which is later transferred on film. The different stages in film production — script writing, development, preparation for the movie by selecting actors and music, shooting the film — can only take place after producers have secured financial backing for their movie. In Lebanon shooting may take up to 6 to 8 weeks, whereas this phase is extended to a few months in the US as big production houses can better handle added costs. Post-production — editing, mixing and integrating special effects to the film — requires and additional four to six months, followed by the actual movie distribution.  At this particular stage the lack of funding often compels producers to trade exclusive rights to their movie against TV ads. But as Sidawi points out, “Such agreements grant TV stations exclusive rights to movies, which are not necessarily shown. This practice ties the hands of producers who will have to wait for the exclusive contract to come to end in order to show their movie.”

In such a difficult work environment, combined Arab-foreign productions are not just popular, but rather inevitable, as Arab funding is scarce, explains Tamba. In Jordan, many movies are co-produced with either European or Gulf countries, especially TV films or series. Sidawi estimates that the lack of funds and the need to co-produce with a foreign country may steer movie production away from its original path and into a direction that is not naturally its own. “For instance, European producers will integrate their own perception of a country into a movie, one that is not necessarily favored by their Arab co-producer.  This affects the type of movie we end up producing,” she said. Hani Tamba looks at collaborations with a more positive eye, believing that European co-producers often add a fresh perspective to a project as well as a different know-how. “Co-production is a matter of finding the right alchemy between two countries,” he declared. In Egypt, as Haddad pointed out, the issue of co-production is less tricky as most producers operate independently and do not need to rely on foreign countries to finance their movies.

Empire International’s president emphasized that one main challenge faced by movie producers in the region is crossing the cultural boundaries between countries, saying “As an example, Lebanese movie producers are confronted with two main problems: language or dialect in which the movie will be filmed and its scope. The Lebanese movie Ghnoujet Baya generated around 200,000 admissions locally but very little outside of Lebanon, as it reflects our local specific culture.” On the other hand, movies such as Nadine Labaki’s Caramel have fared very well in Europe, where in France alone it generated around 500,000 to 700,000 admissions. But despite its international success it did not stir much interest in the UAE.

Haddad believes that over the next few years, movie production will face new challenges with the rapid evolution of technology allowing for movie downloads from the internet and facilitating pirating, which indirectly led to the Hollywood writers strike over compensation for content distributed online. The lack of proper viewing has also affected the sector although many changes have been introduced in recent years with the emergence of massive Cineplex in various Arab countries. In the end, the cinema owner knows that both go together. “Movie viewing and production are intertwined: the first acts as a powerful locomotive for the second and contributes in developing a real movie culture.”

March 14, 2008 0 comments
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GCC

GCC offsets the West

by Executive Staff March 14, 2008
written by Executive Staff

The change happened slowly, over a period of months. Day by day, the stock of green-back American dollars in Sudan’s central bank has decreased. And day by day, the bank’s stock of multi-colored Euros increased. By the opening weeks of 2008, the Bank of Sudan had deliberately and determinedly set a course for a dollar-free economy by switching almost all of its foreign currency reserves into euros and a basket of other currencies. It was the latest and most dramatic manifestation of a growing economic separation between Africa’s largest country and the world’s largest superpower — a split caused by more than ten years of economic sanctions imposed by the US onto Sudan over reports of humanitarian atrocities, first during the country’s north-south civil war, and later during the Darfur conflict.

Euros fill the gap

At first glance, the American exit might look like an economic disaster – particularly since a number of European companies have also shown signs of limiting their involvement in Sudan, citing the risk of getting caught up in American sanctions.

But as every student of economics knows, international trade abhors a vacuum. When one major trading partner leaves the stage, another is bound to be waiting to take its place. In the currency markets, the gap left by the dollar was filled by the euro. In the commercial, financial and investment sectors, say analysts in Sudan, the gap left by American and increasingly European investors and companies is being more than made up for by companies based in China and, increasingly, the Middle East. “Investors are coming in from both China and the Middle East,” said one Khartoum analyst speaking on condition of anonymity. “Part of it is to do with the new flood of oil and part to do with the relative security that followed the end of the civil war in 2005.” But at least part of it is that they are coming in to take up the slack left by the West.” The trend is clear to see in the financial indicators published by the Bank of Sudan. In 2005, $299.2 million worth of Sudanese exports headed out to Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Libya, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Syria, Iraq and other states labeled as “Arab countries” by the bank’s statisticians. Just a year later, the figure had jumped to $444.2 million. And in the first three quarters of 2007 — the most up-to-date statistics available — $305.2 million worth of Sudanese exports had already headed out of the country’s ports and airports towards the Middle East.

Exports are only one small indicator. At the same time as a number of Western companies announced they were leaving sanction-hit Sudan  — including Rolls Royce, Hilton Hotels, Germany’s Siemens, Switzerland’s ABB and Canada’s CHC Helicopter — a host of Middle Eastern names have been arriving or boosting their existing involvement. Sudan was one of Africa’s top four recipients of Foreign Direct Investment in 2006, according to the UN’s World Investment Report of 2007. The country pulled in more than $3 billion, mainly through its telecoms and petroleum industries and the privatization of state-run companies, hardly any of it from the West. Again, large chunks of that foreign direct investment came directly from the Middle East.

The GCC steps in

The increased Middle Eastern involvement is obvious practically everywhere you look in Khartoum, the country’s economic powerhouse. The most obvious arrivals – thanks largely to their overwhelming marketing budgets – are the mobile telecoms giants of Kuwait-based Zain, which bought the then state-owned operator Mobitel, and Canar, an arm of the UAE’s Etisalat. But beyond the phone system, barely a week goes by without an announcement of another investment and another arrival. In February, the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development said it was going to loan Sudan $59 million for a major dam and hydropower project on the River Nile — its second major investment in the scheme. Sudan’s delighted Minister of State for Transport, Roads and Bridges, Dr. Mabrouk Mubarak Saleem, said the cash injection was only the beginning when it came to Kuwaiti investment in Sudan.

A Kuwait Fund envoy is about to fly in to inspect a range of other potential road and transport projects. This is after the Sudanese minister for Transport and Roads made a visit to Kuwait in which he received audiences from, among others, the emir and ministers from Foreign Affairs, Finance and Electricity. US sanctions enforcers have noticed a strange pattern emerging after they started adding named state-owned companies to their list of black-listed Sudanese enterprises. “Immediately after the sanctions were announced, the Sudanese government took steps to sell off government assets that we had identified,” said Adam J. Szubin, head of the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Sudan was clearly trying to get targeted companies out of state control and as far away as possible from sanctions, Szubin added. And the people to whom Sudan tended to sell those state-owned assets came predominantly from the Middle East. In December, media reports suggested that the Dubai Islamic Bank unit, of the Bank of Khartoum, planned to buy smaller Sudanese rival Emirates and Sudan Bank. A month later, Sudan’s national bank told the Sudan Tribune that it might have to sell its 10% stake in the new merged company to make sure the new corporation was not targeted by the US.

In January 2007, Bahrain’s Al-Salam Bank said it had succeeded in snapping up a controlling stake in Sudan state-owned El-Nilein Industrial Development Bank, one of almost 100 companies specifically blacklisted by the U.S. Months before that Dubai-based Emaar Properties and Amlak Finance had also claimed they were after El Nilen shares. Whether or not OFAC was right in saying the sanctions had pushed Sudan into selling the stake, the sanctions certainly hadn’t made the sale any less attractive, said Shawgi Azmi, then director of the Sudanese National Company for Securities, a unit of government-owned Bank of Khartoum. “This deal proves that Gulf investments in Sudan are still pouring in despite the political situation and the pressure from the international community on the country,” he told reporters.

March 14, 2008 0 comments
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Levant

Lifting the ban

by Peter Grimsditch March 7, 2008
written by Peter Grimsditch

One of the best-selling English-language books on Turkish politics is Turkey Unveiled by Nicola and Hugh Pope. Any updates may make them question the title. On February 9, Meclis (the Turkish parliament) voted through constitutional changes lifting the ban on wearing headscarves in public universities by 411 votes in the 550-seat house. To get the required two-thirds majority, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) controversially depended on the support of the ultranationalist National Action Party (MHP), the third largest group in parliament. What was in it for the MHP has not yet been revealed.

While opinion polls say the move is supported by more than 60% of the electorate, the headscarf has been a point of bitter contention between Islamists of all stripes, and ardent secularists, who include the influential army and the largest opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which traces its lineage back to Ataturk. For those in favor of lifting it, the ban was an elitist law which prevented the devout from going to public universities, entrenching the social and economic divisions that have been an (often unspoken) reality for much of Turkey’s modern history. For those that support the ban, there is an array of anxieties. Some fear that girls who prefer not to wear the headscarf will be subject to peer pressure to do so. Others worry that it may be a step down the road to blurring the absolute separation of mosque and state. There are even some who view it as the harbinger of restrictions on other behavior, such as drinking alcohol.

The headscarf ban is seen by many as a guarantor of the secularism of Turkey’s educational system.  Furthermore, the symbolism of headgear in Turkish history should not be underestimated. Founding father Kemal Ataturk famously banned the fez because of its Oriental connotations (giving European milliners the perfect chance to offload their unfashionable, unsold homburgs). Ironically, the fez had been introduced to Turkey to replace the turban by the modernizing Sultan Mahmud II.

Security is not threatened

However, the more ardent secularists may prefer not to mention the fact that the constitutional articles just repealed were not laid down by Ataturk at all, but by a military junta in 1982.

The day the vote to lift the ban passed there were no security incidence — and certainly none of the “chaos” predicted by a headline in Turkey’s best-selling newspaper, Hurriyet. Protests were vocal — but small — compared to the demonstrations held by secularists last year, when Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was reported to be considering contesting the presidency.

As Erdogan pointed out, with oblique reference to Hurriyet’s headline, while tensions are running high over the headscarf issue, compared to other moments in the republic’s history, the law has passed largely without disturbance.

Prophecies of a return to the street warfare and political killings that bedevilled periods of the 1970s were unlikely, given that the two groups involved this time — moderate and conservative Islamists on one side and secular, social-democratic middle-classes on the other — are less prone to violence than the far-right “Grey Wolves” and student radicals of 30 years ago.

Erdogan has repeatedly stressed the AKP’s commitment to secularism and pluralism. “Nobody will force anybody to cover [her head] in this country,” he said on February 17, 2008. “If such things happen, we will fight against this with all of our institutions.”

The somewhat muffled response to the actual passing of the amendments may indicate that the opposition has largely conceded defeat. The AKP’s economic record has robbed the CHP and others of the opportunity to attack its competence. The timing of the headscarf issue was no accident. More than that, and given public support for lifting the ban, the opposition risked looking more and more like an out-of-touch elite from the big Western cities. It must now look for other battles to fight, perhaps looking at where the AKP has had more limited success, such as in eliminating pockets of poverty in some areas, and moving forward on EU accession.

Even before its crushing defeat at the polls, there was a consensus forming that the CHP’s leader since 1992, Deniz Baykal, very briefly (four months) deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs in the mid-1990s, should step aside. Some new blood (and new arguments) in the CHP could help it regain its pre-eminence, and recent events may hasten even the limpet-like Baykal’s departure.

Meanwhile the alliance over February’s Meclis vote and the recent military incursion into Iraq has taken the wind from the sails of the ultranationalists of the MHP, though the party will want its pound of flesh for supporting the AKP. The government, for the meanwhile, looks stronger.

Another reform — or change, depending on how it is viewed — the AKP is keen to push through is an overhaul of Turkey’s system of local government. Currently, the country is divided into 81 provinces, which are then subdivided into municipalities and city municipalities. The government proposes increasing the minimum size of a municipality, and giving more independence to provinces. The government would devolve control of education, healthcare and religious affairs to provincial level.

Istanbul’s administrative reform

Istanbul currently contains more than 70 local administrative units, making a complex mosaic, which, some say, leads to a somewhat inefficient method of government in a country which has only recently thrown off the slight that it is ungovernable. Thus the national government has drawn up plans to consolidate some of the districts, particularly those in which the population has changed considerably in recent years. While these plans appear to make administrative and democratic sense, some allege that they are designed to gerrymander Istanbul’s electoral districts in favor of the AKP in the run-up to the local elections.

Perhaps most controversial is the proposed division of the municipality of Kadikoy on the Asian side of the Bosphorus. Kadikoy is a bastion of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), the second largest party in parliament, and renowned for its staunch secularism. It also has a large population of members of the Alevi sect of Islam. Alevis as a whole have been staunch opponents of the AKP, accusing the party of Sunni chauvinism and attempts to co-opt them into neutered community organizations.

Opponents of the Kadikoy split say that the government is trying to dilute the CHP’s effective vote by dividing it between AKP-dominated areas. Furthermore, there are fears about the proposed move of the central bank headquarters to the district from Ankara, which critics say will lead to the establishment of a financial district overwhelming the residential area. An unspoken concern for the CHP may also be that AKP voting bankers will move to Kadikoy and the surrounding suburbs. The proposed local government reforms have been almost drowned out of the news agenda by the headscarf issue, which is indicative of the symbolic importance of the latter in Turkish politics.

Another area that could be affected by these events is Turkey’s application to join the European Union. In 2007, progress slowed considerably. One of the main issues was the suspension of several “chapters” of negotiation over accession by the EU due to Turkey’s refusal to open its ports to ships registered in the Republic of Cyprus; the opposition of France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy, amongst others, has been another blow. There has also — indeed, consequently — been a significant weakening in the Turkish electorate’s support for accession; a majority are now opposed, according to most polls.

EU membership

Partly perhaps due to the symbolism of the headscarf question, the government has vocally restated its commitment to EU membership, with President Abdullah Gul declaring 2008 “the year of Europe,” a call echoed by some of the Cabinet.  “Turkey cannot turn back from the point we have reached in regard to civilization, modernization and Westernization,” said Meclis speaker Koksal Toptan, the second ranking official in Turkey’s state hierarchy and an AKP moderate. “There will be no change here. Turkey cannot give up on its target of membership of the European Union, which is part of its Westernization and modernization process,” he added.

There may be AKP internal politics at play here. There are rumors that Erdogan is losing enthusiasm for the European project. Gul, on the other hand, though previously seen by some as Erdogan-lite, is portrayed as staunchly pro-accession. Whether this is a sign of factions developing in the previously impressively united and disciplined AKP, or a case of “good cop, bad cop” is uncertain. But despite enthusiasm from Toptal and EU chief negotiator Ali Babacan, traction on European accession will be minimal without movement on Cyprus. Greek Cypriot voters unceremoniously turfed out the hardline President Tassos Papdopoulos in the first round of the presidential elections. That could have paved the way for a thaw in the iceberg dividing the two parts of the island. The accession to the Greek Cypriot post of the Communist Demetris Christofias after the second round of polls on February 24 could have eased the way to some progress, though he could scarcely be described as enthusiastic for reunification, despite his most recent words. Not wholly negative is perhaps a more fitting description. In any case, Erdogan may well have made the concept academic. Lifting the headscarf ban and under suspicion of trying to fix local administrative reform in his favor will hardly endear him to opponents of Turkish entry into the EU. The Turkish prime minister appears to have bigger domestic fish to fry and observers could be forgiven for thinking that his own enthusiasm for accession has sunk to the same level as that of the European Turkosceptics.

PETER GRIMSDITCH is editorial director at the Oxford Business Group.

March 7, 2008 0 comments
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Levant

Opening up

by Executive Staff March 7, 2008
written by Executive Staff

With private finance still in its infancy in Syria, private equity has yet to get up and running, but the foundations are being laid for a sector that could be as hot as elsewhere in the region.

Spearheading the direction private equity could take in Syria are holding companies, which were introduced to the market over a decade ago by the likes of former Lebanese prime minister and businessman Rafik Hariri.

But it has only been in the past few years that holding companies have started coming into their own, spurred on by the economic reforms implemented since the death of Hafez al-Assad.

The de-regulation of the finance and banking sectors has been the most crucial change, creating a more competitive financial environment as well as prompting businesses to pull up their socks and adapt to the new climate.

“Holding Companies are a new concept entering the terminology here,” said Dr. Nabil Sukkar, managing director of the Syrian Consulting Bureau for Development and Investment. “Businessmen are thinking of setting up holdings, but don’t know the benefits and what it’s all about.”

New Company Law

Indeed, holding companies were not mentioned in Syrian law until 2000, in Law No. 7, which allowed for special tax treatment, and the recently enacted New Company Law has a section on holding companies.

Two Syrian holding companies are at the forefront of this fledgling sector. Souria Holding was established by 24 investors in early 2007, with a capital of $80 million, and is behind the entry of international supermarket chain Spinneys into Syria.

The biggest venture, Cham Holding, was established with a starting capital of $360 million by 70 Syrian investors, with business moguls Nabil Kuzbari the president and Rami Makhlouf the vice-president. (How last month’s decision by the US Treasury Department to freeze Makhlouf’s assets in US financial institutions, as well as prohibiting US citizens and firms from engaging in any business contacts will impact on Cham Holding remains to be seen.)

With the management largely consisting of repatriated Syrians who have had professional experience in the Gulf and the West, the company’s mantra is to “lead the private sector into the new era,” said Bahaa Issa, British-Syrian head of communications.

Part of this involves — as always — the creation of a brand identity to put Syria back on the international business map.

“Our vision is to be at the head of the train of the new economy, and we want to position ourselves as the opportune delivery system for the Syrian economy,” said Issa.

Cham Holding is focusing on six industries, including: BENA, for hospitality and property development; the Cham Capital Group, for finance and banking, capital finance and insurance; SANA for energy and power generation; health and education; and a new private airline Cham was recently granted a license to operate, Pearl Airlines.

According to Issa, Cham Holding plans to “create 50,000 jobs in the next five years, which would indirectly create 600,000 job opportunities.”

Since its launch in 2006, Cham has entered into a raft of strategic partnerships and joint-ventures. In December, it inked a $5 million partnership with British-US company Gulfsands Petroleum, which works in the US, Syria and Iraq. Cham has a 65% controlling stake, with the aim of acquiring high-value energy projects in Syria, and possibly Iraq.

In addition, Cham has entered into a joint-venture with three Kuwaiti firms to tender for large utilities and other infrastructure contracts in Syria, and is reportedly in discussions with Siemens to establish a ‘clean-coal’ power station. Encompassing projects valued at over $1 billion, Cham is also behind the Hejaz Railway station shopping mall, which has yet to get off the ground despite the foundations being dug more than two years ago, reportedly due to resistance from heritage groups.

More than greenbacks

Cham is bringing more than greenbacks to Syria, acting as consultants to the government and striving to introduce corporate governance and regulatory compliance through its own example.

“Compared to Dubai the challenges are tremendous,” said Mohanad Moussly, chief Risk and Compliance Officer. “Here the government is working with the mindset that the public sector is the best provider of services to the public, and to go into critical areas of industry. This mindset is changing, but public sector employees are hesitant about change.”

Holding companies as well as private foreign banks in Syria are hopeful that the upcoming Damascus Stock Market — which was slated to open in the first quarter but looks more likely to start later in the year or early 2009 — will spur on greater de-regulation and attract further capital to Syria. That will also include the entry of private equity firms.

Currently, there are few firms capitalizing on the opening of Syria’s economy. The UAE’s SHUAA Partners, a private equity arm of SHUAA Capital, has however invested $100 million in Syria, to enter the mobile telecom sector.

“We want to invest more in Syria. We have $100 million to deploy in equity and more than just equity when you factor in leverage. We want to go into three markets in Syria:  telecoms, financial services, and real estate/hospitality,” said Jamil Brair, SHUAA Partner’s senior vice president.

For the time being, Syria has further to go before there is a more profound entry of venture capitalists, private equity firms and the like, but holding companies are giving an idea of the direction a more capitalist Syria will resemble.

March 7, 2008 0 comments
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Levant

Aviation taking off

by Executive Staff March 7, 2008
written by Executive Staff

Fitting in to what appears to be the private sector’s modus operandi when investing in Syria in the wake of economic reform, private airlines are only this year taking to the skies, three years after the law had been amended. In 2005, Damascus allowed private investment in air transport for the first time in 60 years, during which the national carrier, Syrian Arab Airlines (SAA), enjoyed a monopoly.

But it has only been in the past six months that the private sector has started to capitalize on the liberalization of the market, with Damascus granting licenses to three private Syrian airlines, of which Sham Wings is the first to get underway with a charter flight to Sharm el-Sheikh in early February of this year.

This seemingly cautious approach to investing in Syria reflects the banking sector’s trajectory into the market, only setting up shop years after private banks were formally allowed into this formerly socialist economy. But the recent flurry of activity in aviation is indicative of the changes the economic reforms in Syria have brought about, with the time lag between the liberalization of the sector on paper and actual developments on the ground creating the conditions for a more viable aviation industry.

Rising tourism numbers

“The main reason for us to set up was the rise in tourists and Iraqis in Syria,” said Salim al-Sawda, technical director of Sham Wings Airlines, which was established by Iraqi and Syrian private investors.

In the past three years, investment in the tourism sector has surged from $400 million in 2004 to $2 billion in 2006, while the number of tourists visiting Syria has spiked from 2.5 million in 2005 to 3.1 million in 2006, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics. And if Iraqis and Lebanese were to be included in the figures, the number of visitors would stand at 4.4 million in 2006, versus 3.4 million in 2005, a rise of 29%.

Indeed, with an estimated 1.4 million Iraqi refugees in Syria there is a ready market for air links between Damascus and Baghdad, which until February had been dominated by Iraqi Airways (IA). Now Sham Wings offers flights, directly competing with IA at $567 return (due to high insurance costs at the Iraqi end).

Sham Wings, the country’s first charter airline, has started with one aircraft, a 147-seater McDonnell Douglas MD-83 leased on an ACME basis from an Egyptian company, that way getting around the US ban on the Syrian aviation sector.

The airline plans to buy aircraft “one by one,” said Sawda, and is currently in discussions to by a European-made Folker-100 jet. “We have already increased our timetable, not only to Iraq, but also Sharm el-Sheikh and Alexandria, and we will open a new line to Istanbul, as well as to Ukraine and Belarus. Our destinations will be ones not covered by Syrian Airways.”

The airline, which plans to be profitable within the next two years, is to be joined this year by Syrian al-Nisr Airlines (The Eagle), established by Syrian private investors Al-Harith al-Assad and Mayyar Arnous, and by Pearl Airlines, which is backed by Syria’s Cham Holding. Both airlines have been granted international licenses but have made no statements on intended destinations.

Other licenses are also pending, for cargo, charter and non-charter airlines, said Flight Commander General Hazim al-Khadra, director general of the Syrian Civil Aviation Authority.

“The policy of Syria now is to open the market in the field of aviation. But there is no Open Skies Agreement, only to Bassil al-Assad Airport in Lattakia, as we cannot do it at Damascus International Airport (DIA) since we must have more than one national carrier that can compete with other airlines, let alone the capacity of the airport itself,” he said.

Airport expansion

With the number of tourists visiting Syria increasing by 20% in the past year, and foreign investment flooding in, the country’s airports are witnessing a turnaround, with a 10.5% increase in passengers to 3.485 million last year.

According to al-Khadra, “This is a result of the action plan drawn by our leader, Bashar al-Assad, towards the development and rehabilitation of modernizing Syria.”

As part of the country’s second five-year plan for the 2006-2010 period, some $3.75 billion is forecast for infrastructure developments in the transport sector. Much of this is earmarked for port and road development, but aviation is also getting a much needed boost.

In January, Malaysia’s Mahibbah Engineering won a $59 million construction contract at the DIA to rehabilitate and upgrade the passenger terminal building, roads, car parks and parking apron.

This is just the start of major projects to expand the ageing airport, said al-Khadra, with plans on the drawing board to increase DIA’s current capacity from 1.5 million to 3.5 million passengers a year. “With the next fifth action plan there will be another terminal, catering to 7-8 million passengers, maybe in the next five years.”

The number of international airports is also to be increased, from the current five — Damascus, Lattakia, Aleppo, Deir al-Zor and Qamishle — to eight, with Homs, Tadmur (Palmyra) and Al-Raqqa to get airports of their own.

Al-Khadra said bids and tenders to build and upgrade facilities would be open to international bidders, and there was potential for ground services at the airports to be privatized, pointing out that “This all depends on the development of the economic situation in Syria. Nowadays, Syria values investment from everywhere.”

The number of airlines operating out of Syria could also increase from the current 40 that fly out of Damascus, but that is all “related to the political situation in the region,” according to him. “For instance, European and American airlines are not allowed to operate out of Syria. This is a consequence of the US ban against Syria.”

The US ban on Syrian aviation is one of the biggest hurdles the sector faces, not only in terms of increasing flight destinations and enticing operators, but in particular for the national carrier. Under the 2003 Syrian Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act (SALSA), Washington placed a ban on all US exports to Syria, a ban on US investment in the country, and a ban on Syrian flights to the US, among other regulations. Under such sanctions Syrian Airlines is unable to upgrade its ageing fleet of Boeing and Airbus aircraft, last added to over a decade ago when in 1996 the US granted a special waiver to the airline to purchase used Boeing aircraft from Kuwait and two Airbus A320s in 1998.

“It is a big problem because US aviation interferes with the aviation industry, the spare parts for commercial airlines in particular, which maintain the safety of passengers. And these passengers aren’t only Syrians, but also Europeans, Americans, Asians and so on,” said al-Khadra. “Even Airbus is included in this ban as they cannot sell Syria any Airbus aircraft or spare parts because the Americans are between 10-15% shareholders in these companies.”

The other option for SAA is to buy Russian aircraft, but he said they lacked the American-made Airborne Collision Avoidance System (ACAS), which is essential for air safety and a requirement for commercial aircraft by the International Civil Aviation Organization.

Diversifying Syria’s air sector may therefore be the only way to get around the crippling US bans, for unless SAA gets spare parts, the airline could be permanently grounded — if planes don’t actually fall from the sky — as private Syrian airlines take to the skies.

March 7, 2008 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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