For an industry that is battling a higher cost of doing business and, during the past quarter witnessed its first contraction of deposits after something like 50 quarters of perpetual increases, the mood at leading banking institutions is exuberant. And for more than one reason.
The first is confidence, both economic and general. Many bankers saw their confidence get not one but single but a multiple shot in the arm in the past quarter. The nation’s ability to navigate the sudden storm-swept political waters and avoid being torn apart by internal strife and violence, clearly imprinted itself into the minds of many bankers as a general confidence booster.
Secondly, banks saw good rise out of their own ranks. The fast action and effective leadership of the central bank in averting the danger of capital flight and handling the pressure on the currency has been suitably acknowledged. But banks also played an effective part in calming depositors, managing a sudden surge in dollarization of accounts and steering customer funds back towards the Lebanese pound.
This resilience in the nation’s economic stance made the president of the Association of Banks in Lebanon, Joseph Torbey, exclaim assertively in a meeting with Executive, “We are not a third-world country! We are a country with a real economy and a real growth and the real power of the country is its people.“ [for the full interview, go to page xxx]
Assured by Lebanon’s and their own successes in defeating the dangers of political and economic turmoil, and now betting confidently on a graceful transition to a new political governance paradigm, bankers today publicly profess optimism. When asked by Executive about their evaluation of the situation in the middle of the second quarter, sector leaders voiced positive expectations for the economy at large, with some projecting growth for 2005 just slightly below last year’s level or even referring to a GDP potential of breaking the $30 billion if Lebanon only fulfilled its promise. For all lines of banking activities they predicted new upswings either in the medium or, especially for retail banking, in the short term.
Expressions of such optimism were also aided by sector numbers, which had been good for 2004 and at the end of the day also came out much better for the first quarter of 2005 than it had been widely feared in February and March. The 12 out of 14 Alpha Group banks with deposits over $1 billion for which figures were communicated, achieved growth in assets, deposits and loans of 16.27%, 14.95%, and 12.68 %, respectively, in the Alpha group’s consolidated balance sheet. Profit cushions were comfortable for many large banks as the group’s consolidated net profits rose by 11.75%. BLOM Bank was again the leader in profits even as the gap with some in the leading group narrowed. Three banks recorded moderate profit contractions, while one, SGBL, saw a large one. BLC, previously resident in negative profit territory, led the sector in profit improvements with 181% growth.
As banks tallied their first quarter results and finalized their audited annual reports over the past weeks, they confirmed that the first quarter contraction in customer deposits in wake of the Hariri assassination, was slight at about 2%. For some, even from January 1 till March 31, deposit growth was achievable as demonstrated by mid-sized Bank Al-Mawarid, which achieved 3.78 % growth in deposits and 3.71% growth in loans for the period.
In signaling readiness to respond immediately to an improvement in the economic climate, Lebanese Canadian Bank went ahead with opening five new branches it had bought from Bank Al Madina, while Lebanese Canadian and BEMO and are in the process of erecting new headquarters downtown. BEMO, only last month, concluded an agreement over the purchase of a plot near Starco where the group plans to establish 6,500 square meters of built-up headquarters space.
Another, and newer, message from Lebanese banking is that of regional successes. Where local banks began two years ago to justify their need for expansion into other Middle Eastern and North African countries with the over-ampleness of their own size in relation to the domestic economy, they speak this year in glowing terms of their initial experiences in operating those new subsidiaries and present a plenty of further projects.
Byblos Bank, which was at the forefront of going regional by establishing Byblos Bank Africa in Sudan in 2003, is full of praise over its progress there and its new expansion accomplishment in Algeria, where it recently acquired a bank with six branches. With teams already having been dispatched from Lebanon to Algeria, Byblos’ second regional venture is already operational and only awaiting final administrative approval in both countries to complete the acquired bank’s transition into Byblos Bank Algeria.
The third regional joint venture banking project of Byblos, the establishment of an operation in Syria, is also well underway with a head office already having been bought and launch of the institution planned for this year, hopefully before September. According to Byblos’ general manager, Semaan Bassil, Algeria (which is also being eyed-up by Lebanese Canadian) is attractive due to its proximity to Europe, strategic importance in oil and gas, large projects and numerous development needs in the banking sector, while in Syria, the bank is looking not only at corporate clientele but also at building a network and consumer franchise there.
At the Audi Saradar Group, where there is a history of strong European subsidiaries, the rollout of the first regional operation in Jordan has been a tremendous story, claims strategist Freddy Baz. Based on a license for a 10-branch network, the Lebanese group had six out of ten branches up and running at the end of 2004, three months after assuming operations. “We reached a level of assets of JD 120 million at yearend, which corresponds approximately to $160 million,” Baz told Executive. “This is a very good performance when you compare it with existing banks having several branches and six, seven years of operations. We are at 60% of their performance after 14 weeks. This is related to vision, strategy, well-defined business plans, and more importantly, your people.” The group foresees completion of the branch network in Jordan within a matter of weeks as well as launching operations in Syria before the end of the summer. The start of the joint venture was delayed because of a decision to double the new bank’s capital from $30 million to $60 million, in order to meet the requirements of what Baz described as “a very aggressive business plan for Syria”.
As Audi Saradar’s ambitions extend even further than these two new ventures and the group regards the Levant, North Africa and the Gulf area all as within its reach for regional activities, the public should not be surprised to see another Audi Saradar startup coming along, perhaps in form of a new niche operator in corporate finance in the Gulf or through acquisition or founding of an institution in Egypt where the group’s market interest is documented.
Also gearing up towards their opening in Syria is Bank of Beirut, which is collaborating with Emirates Bank and Qatar National Bank in their joint venture for the Syrian market. BoB is also preparing to co-list its shares on the Dubai Stock Exchange within the coming three months.
No single banker talking to Executive last month about plans for the Syrian market left any doubt that money talks equally sweet from both sides of the border and Syrian customers had no squabbles or reservations in letting Lebanese banks serve them.
Already in Damascus is BEMO Bank, where a high reputation with the Syrian business community runs in the blood. The bank’s aspirations are for the Syrian operation to eventually outpace the asset size of the parent bank in Lebanon. “In Syria we achieved $400 million after one year, for most of which we had only one branch,” said BEMO general manager Samih Saadeh.
Among the two private sector banks already open in the neighboring country, the joint venture Bank BEMO Saudi Faransi (BSF) is currently leader by number of assets, deposits, and loans, according to Saadeh, and growing to four branches this summer. Interestingly, the focus at BSF is on retail banking growth while BEMO’s home strategy is to develop its niche as boutique private and corporate player. Covering both angles, the group aims for a substantial role as banking conglomerate between Lebanon and Syria.
The Syrian market’s need for advanced and indeed basic financial services should provide Lebanese banks participating in joint ventures there with no shortage of opportunities to break growth records over a good number of years, as long as the flows of economic freedom and overall reform in the allied country do improve and not subside. Their market expertise and managerial leadership as drivers of joint banking ventures in the Syrian economy may even allow stronger Lebanese banks in the longer run to get around the restrictions on their roles created by the legal framework that dictates Syrian majority in the capital of private sector banks.
While the regionalization of their business is buttressing the market positions and risk diversification of Lebanese banks, it does not provide them with answers to all their challenges. Many still have to work on ameliorating their asset quality and interest rate risk, loan portfolios and policies, management and service structures. Although appearing perhaps somewhat less attractive today under the inescapable size limitations of the market, domestic mergers and acquisitions in further consolidation of the sector can be expected to become again more important with progressive implementation of Basel II requirements over the next five years.
Furthermore, within the limitations of the economic environment and the prospects for gradual improvements over a not short period before full recovery of fiscal and macroeconomic health, innovative contributions of banks to the financing of growth and productivity in Lebanon have a lot of calling. In an example for a new project, Byblos Bank is currently working on establishing a joint venture financial firm with the European Investment Bank (EIB) and probably another foreign partner. An EIB expert had been hosted at Byblos Bank for the past six month in a mission to analyze the feasibility of an equity fund for investing in companies in Lebanon and the region, and the project is ready for start-up within 2005.
To be capitalized initially at $30 million, with 50% participation by Byblos Bank, the investment fund firm aims to enter the equity of promising companies that also export. Managed out of Beirut with a Lebanese team and also based as offshore entity in Cyprus for reasons of giving the Europeans and foreign partners a blocking vote, the fund will be designed to cover not only Lebanon but also be active in other countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, such as Syria, Egypt, Algeria and Palestine.
