The Middle East is lately undergoing economic and political changes that imply the need to rethink Lebanon’s posture in this volatile geopolitical neighborhood. The two main impulses to consider are the expansion of the European Union and the recent and future American intentions for the region, and what the latter means for Lebanon. Both factors combine with recent improvements in Lebanon’s economic performance that brought upturns in not all but some important areas. Besides the much talked-about resurgence of tourism, the country’s export performance is to be named here. Despite regional factors of international business concern, such as the war raging for much of the year in Iraq and the third year of the intifada in Israel, Lebanon’s outbound trade thrived in 2003.

A report released by Lebanon’s ministry of industry in mid-July announced that the country’s industrial exports for 2003 increased by 28.2% compared to the previous year. The report calculated that the volume of industrial export at $1.087 billion in 2003, compared to $848 million in 2002, although it is worth noting that the country still has a considerable trade deficit (around $3 billion), and exports still need to be significantly boosted. The Lebanese economy has also benefited from the 9/11 events in the United States, as Arab and Gulf tourism has been diverted away from countries in Western Europe and North America into Lebanon, a country offering a host of advantages that are suitable to Arab tourists. Another significant benefit, which is likely to get substantially amplified in the years to come, is the withdrawal of around $300 billion of Saudi and Gulf investments from the US and some Western European countries, and their gradual re-allocation into Arab economies, including Lebanon and its banking sector.

But do the outside changes affecting the Middle East also indicate long-term opportunities for the battered Lebanese economy? With the EU now only a 20-minute flight on a Middle East Airlines jet from Beirut International Airport, and new business and trading possibilities in the offing, how would commerce and politics inter-mingle? And, more importantly, how would this all fit in with America’s overall strategy for Lebanon, assuming there is one in the first place? Much of that depends on how the US views Lebanon today, and what role Lebanon is intended to play in Washington’s overall plans in “bringing democracy to the greater Middle East.” In the very short term, it would appear that Lebanon may be too complicated, from a political standpoint, for the US to get too involved. Having been caught in the Iraqi quagmire, from which it is still trying to find an honorable exit, it is unlikely that the US would now want to get involved in Lebanon’s web of political intrigue. The presence of Syrian forces and the Hizbullah factor hardly makes Lebanon attractive to the US, at least until the presence of armed forces – armies and militias – are no longer an issue to contend with. Moreover, the significant interference of Syria in Lebanese domestic politics and in the assignment of local politicians into key positions and roles that are likely to have a crucial effect on the economy, is a discouraging factor for both the US military and businesses. It will be indeed, very difficult to remove inefficient individuals from their positions, in which they have had time to get deeply embedded in, or for US businesses to get past the bureaucracy and corruption hurdles created by the same individuals.

Looking farther down the road, however, the US just might have a more pronounced ambition in mind for Lebanon. Such new moves would require preparations in that Washington would first need to settle its affairs in Iraq before it could undertake any new initiatives elsewhere in the area. Second, it is a certainty that nothing would be tried until after the November presidential elections.
So what would likely be the policies of a post-election US administration concerning Lebanon? The answer to that question, of course, largely depends on who the next US president will be, and at present, any prediction on the election outcome would be unwise. Currently, Bush and Kerry are running neck-to-neck, give or take a percentage point.

In the event of a Bush victory, the re-elected president – who would not have to worry about another election campaign – may well decide to push for more “regime changes” in the region. Responding to shouts of “four more years” from supporters while on the campaign trail in July, Bush promised that if re-elected, he would strive “to make America safer,” and “finish what was started.”

Direct military interventions, however, are extremely remote possibilities given the way things turned out in Iraq. Secondly, a US military intervention in Lebanon is really unthinkable at this time, given that American troops would have to face both Syrian and Hizbullah forces.

This suggests that a re-elected Bush would try to bring about these changes through other means, such as supporting opposition movements in Iran, and, as a number of senators and House members are advocating, in Syria too, or call on the military assistance of its ally, Israel. How would all this translate for Lebanon? Any military action would initially send the economy into a tailspin. But if Lebanon can hold its nerve for what would be perceived as one final round of conflict, even under those conditions, the longer term outlook for the country’s businesses can only be good, assuming the area recovers relatively quickly. And although the implications of (what is denounced in the region as) forced US democratization by pressuring Middle Eastern countries into reforms with non-military means would most probably include a period of instability, Lebanon would be a beneficiary in business terms. Eventually, international corporations will relocate to Beirut, exploiting Lebanon’s relative cosmopolitanism to the full. However, in playing through all such scenarios, the geo-strategic planners in Washington should bear in mind what Lebanon’s business community had to acknowledge in the recent past: the realities of our time. The 1960s are forever gone and it would be highly unreasonable to expect Lebanon to become a US satellite in the region, especially that Lebanon needs to carry out significant internal political, social, and economic reforms before it is ready to become anybody’s satellite. Lebanon needs to play out the unique role it was destined to, that of the middleman between East and West. Any politician and strategist, whether based in Beirut or elsewhere, is well advised to capitalize on this Lebanese talent for adaptation. Lebanese ingenuity can facilitate business transactions between Europe, the US and the Arab world, of which it is an integral part. In the event of a Kerry victory, one could expect that American foreign policies would see relative inactivity for a few additional months while the new administration settles in. But it is doubtful that even with a change in the White House, the overall US Middle East policy would differ much, at least as far as Lebanon is concerned. The visible difference might possibly lie in the new administration’s view on how to deal with the war in Iraq. Kerry is likely to adopt a more universal approach in addressing the region’s problems and would engage the international community in a more active way. There may be a positive spin to this scenario, as it would involve the Europeans who tend to have a more realistic approach as well as a better understanding of the region. That would make the transition to peace somewhat more of a reality, speeding up Iraq’s receptiveness to business opportunities.

There is no doubt that a pacified Iraq, even if set in a still turbulent region, would be a major trading partner with Lebanon (as it was before the start of the Lebanese civil war in 1975). Iraq is practically a land-locked country. It’s only ports – Basra, Faw and Umm Qasr – are all situated on the narrow Shatt el Arab waterway, located at the very end of the Arabian Gulf, and are already over-burdened. Reaching those ports from Europe or North America requires ships to sail through the Suez Canal (and pay the required tolls), navigate around the Arabian Peninsula, sail through the Straits of Hormuz and then up the Gulf, adding several days to the journey. All this, of course, reduces millions of dollars from the profit margins of companies operating those vessels. Of late, much of the merchandize destined for Iraqi has transited through the Jordanian port of Aqaba. But again, reaching Aqaba necessitates the crossing of the Suez Canal. Beirut and other Lebanese ports are already being used for goods bound for Iraq. They are easily reachable from the Mediterranean, bypassing the need to sail through the Suez Canal, thus allowing huge savings in costs and time. From Lebanese ports, merchandise destined for Iraq can easily be transported by trucks, and in time, through re-built railways through Syria, allowing for faster delivery. Beirut is a good deal closer to Baghdad than Aqaba, which would further save on transportation costs. Iraq could also be the land of opportunities for Lebanese consultants, bankers and regulators, who could use their significant expertise to rebuild commercial banking, financial services, an industrial base, and laws and regulations, into a country that needs to rebuild its economy from scratch.

In the reverse sense, it is not inconceivable that oil from Iraq could be transported via pipelines to Lebanon using existing facilities in Tripoli and Sidon, from where oil tankers could then reach European and North American markets. Cheaper delivery costs translate into cheaper oil, and this is a good incentive for rehabilitating the Lebanese oil terminals. In realizing such a scenario, competition from the southern pipeline to Haifa would have to be faced. Thus, the government in Beirut would need to display strong negotiation skills in attracting a pipeline project. It would also have to prove its commitment in developing the needed technical capacities and enforcing safety and regulatory standards

But all this is pure speculation. While Lebanon may enjoy a seasonal uplift in its economic and industrial transactions, this country has to deal firsthand with the reality of a region that is not about to miraculously witness an instant political amelioration anytime in the immediate future. Iraq and the situation in the Palestinian territories will continue to keep the region in a precarious balance of uncertainty. No American politics will alter this. Neither Kerry, nor Bush will have a magic wand that can make the region’s problems go away.

Iraq faces a long uphill road until it can finally reach a workable degree of stability, fully reclaim its sovereignty and attain a political balance that will allow it to not only resume pre-1990 to 19991 levels of oil production of 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd), but also rebuild all other aspects of its regionally very significant economy. For this, the faster the new Iraqi government can assume real sovereignty, the better. The influx of fundamentalists that have flooded into the country following the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime in the spring of 2003, and that continue to fight the coalition forces and Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s government is certainly not helping the business environment. The presence in Iraq of some 150,000 US and British troops, along with a smattering from other nations, will continue to attract militants intent on fighting the Americans and their allies.

One possible fix – at least until Iraqis are strong enough to look after their own security once again – would be for Arab countries to contribute troops to the “Coalition of the Willing,” but this remains a highly unlikely scenario. Just why would any Arab country want to be seen to assist the Bush administration, particularly at a time so close to the US November presidential elections? It’s not exactly as though Bush has many friends in the Arab world.

The dispatch of Arab troops to Iraq at this time would be perceived as a move in support of Bush, a president, who in the eyes of the majority of people in the Arab world is seen as acting counter to their interest in his unfaltering support of Israel and of Ariel Sharon’s hard-line policies. Remember, this is the president that called Sharon, “a man of peace.” With significant domestic decisions looming, the question for Lebanon is now whether the country’s natural business interests will prevail or be once again made victims of politicking. If continuing on current paths, Lebanese policies would leave the country standing behind in the dust of missed opportunities. Whatever the changes in American strategies and regional frameworks could be, this is the one certain danger, which Lebanon and its people face.

Claude Salhani is the foreign editor and a political analyst with United Press International in Washington, DC.

Nicolas Photiades is an independent financial adviser on financial, capital optimization and strategy.

In 1998, Mohamed El Hout, director of real estate and financial assets department at the central bank, was appointed Chairman of Middle East Airlines (MEA). At the time, Lebanon’s national carrier was overstaffed and hemorrhaging money. His appointment was surrounded in controversy. He had no aviation background and an unproven track record. Critics accused him of being the central bank’s man, while his supporters claimed that it would need an outsider to turn the company around. Six years on, MEA has a new fleet of planes, a leaner workforce and is confident it will announce net profits of over $30 million for 2004. In an exclusive interview, El Hout talks to EXECUTIVE about the past, present and future of an airline that was brought back from the brink.

How would you describe the trajectory of MEA’s performance curve in the past six years?

When the new board took over in 1998, it inherited a net loss of $87 million and an $80 million operating loss from the previous year. The challenge was to make the company profitable within three years by restructuring the network, making new purchase agreements and creating a better purchasing policy. We also wanted to develop a hub and have alliances with international carriers to serve more points in North and South America, as well as increase staff productivity to boost the competitiveness of the company, control costs and lay off excess employees. Then we wanted to achieve better utilization of our aircraft, develop a better, and by that I mean safer and more reliable, product. With all of these taken together, it was clear that we could make MEA profitable, although not a lot of people believed it at the time because of the inherent political realities in the country.

Do you mean the traditional political influence exerted on MEA?

Exactly. If you want to lay off employees, is it easy? If you want to restructure and appoint a manager in this or that post, is it easy? If you want to change someone from one job to another, is it easy?

So there was political resistance to change?

At the beginning I faced a lot of hostility but eventually the politicians realized that we were serious and recognized the problems we were facing. They got used to us and our way of doing things.

It must have been a very sensitive issue?

It was at the very beginning, especially when we laid off employees. The whole restructuring was difficult. Was it possible? Yes. So we showed that we could do it if you have a policy and you believe in this policy. Timing was another factor.

How were you able to get the MEA staff on your side given that you did not have an aviation background?

Only by results, because they were not convinced at first. However, if you are a pilot you can fly a plane from point A to point B but it doesn’t mean you can run a company. If you a manager you can run any company irrespective of your lack of specialized knowledge in that field. Managers elsewhere in the world move from industry to industry. Maybe my financial background allowed me to identify problems that were not seen before or deal with problems that old management was prohibited from dealing with. Anyway the results are there for all to see. In 2002, we made $3 million net profit, in 2003, $22 million net profit and $32 million operating profit.

I understand that MEA is about to release some encouraging figures.

This year, 2004, we expect in excess of 30 million net profit but fuel prices are escalating faster than expected.

How are fuel costs impacting the results?

During the summer we have not responded [to the increases] because we believe our prices are high enough and we feel this is unfair on our customers to impose a surcharge on the fare. We are waiting for the low season, when we will reconsider our pricing policy, as will all airlines. Unfortunately, no one is looking at this seriously. A lot of carriers are expecting fuel prices to decrease. I think that $30 to $40/barrel is a fair price. It was the same in 1980. Prices have increased since then on aircraft and salaries, etc. It is fair that fuel should increase as well. They have to adjust to this new situation and they have to build a commercial policy, factoring in this cost.

What are MEA’s options if prices go up further?

We will have to increase our fares, but as we speak there is no plan to do that.

You say timing was a factor? How has MEA’s recovery been helped by Lebanon’s revival as a tourist destination, especially after 9/11?

I wish 9/11 hadn’t happened. It was a disaster for the Arab world. It hasn’t helped us in anyway. Four months after 9/11 we had a considerable decrease in the number of passengers as we did before, during and after the war in Iraq. But yes, I suppose in another way 9/11 made a lot of Gulf Arabs and Lebanese expatriates look at Lebanon. This has helped us achieve our targets earlier.

Are MEA and BIA post 9/11 compliant?

Before 9/11, our security was seen as overbearing but now it is normal and we are very satisfied that we have one of the most secure airports in the world.

What about onboard security?

We have no plans to appoint sky marshals and our pilots are not armed. You are not allowed to fly to the US. What is the latest on this situation?

This is a political decision. When this barrier comes down we will look at our options but it depends on the timing. I cannot predict the future.

What if the barrier came down now?

Now? Yes, but with an alliance with an American company. The American company would fly to Beirut and MEA would fly to the hub of this company in the US, where they would have access to connecting flights in the same way we would offer the flights from the US connections to the Gulf. This is the only way it would work. You can’t go to these competitive long-haul markets unless you have a partner. In any case, we are serving our customers in the US and Canada through our alliance with Air France and special agreements with Delta, Virgin and Continental.

Has MEA any plans to purchase more aircraft?

We would like one more, preferably a wide-bodied plane taking our fleet to ten aircraft.

How is MEA positioning itself in the regional/global market?

We have been receiving very positive feedback. We have luxurious planes, our safety record is second to none and we are constantly upgrading our service.

Why should I fly MEA rather than any of the other regional carriers? How does MEA convince the regional passenger that it is best?

I don’t want to compare but try MEA, and then fly another and tell me what you think. We don’t ‘over-promise’ like other airlines.

Is there a recruitment strategy for cabin staff in this regard?

Yes, we are recruiting new cabin staff to match the caliber of our pilots, ground staff and engineers. Out of 320 we have 200 new staff that have joined us in the last five years, with 120 experienced staff that can share their experience. It’s good mixture. We assess them every year for two years on an annual contact basis and then and only then do they become permanent staff.

MEA management’s relationship with the pilots’ association has been quite turbulent in the past. What is it like today?

We are recruiting pilots and we have reached an agreement with the pilots concerning work conditions.

Is MEA expanding their route network elsewhere?

Next year we will open Qatar, but let me stress again that long-haul routes are killers for an airline of MEA’s size. Low margins and a notoriously sensitive market means that long-haul route survival is very difficult. We have no long-haul plans for the moment I must stress this. What we do have is a network that is concentrated in the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf. I think this policy has been the best one for MEA for the time being, given the current regional situation. We have partnerships with Qatar and Gulf Air to the Far East and we have now this month entered into a partnership with the Brazilian TAM.

How has MEA been able to attract the low season traffic?

For our part, our prices drop, but this is not enough. We have to market Beirut conferences and attract the European traveler. We have to create more activities in Lebanon. When Lebanon is in good health, we are in good health. The government has a role to play, as does the private sector.

How is MEA coping with demand this summer? Have there been delays like previous years?

Really, compared to other airports, we do not have long queues at our counters. Look at other airports and you will see what I mean. In the high season, yes when all the planes are leaving early, it is more busy than normal but really we are very good compared to others.

Is the staff size down to the airline’s needs in numbers and are employees up to the market challenges?

We have 2,400 staff. We had 4,200

It’s a huge achievement to downsize like this, but do you feel that by international standards, MEA is still slightly bloated?

Still over-staffed? No. The level of employment is acceptable. This is because if we compare ourselves to other airlines we are doing the handling and the engineering. These are not normally counted as airline staff. We can benefit from economies of scale. With every new plane we would only have to increase staff by half. In fact, the Arab world should look to bigger entities and not a lot of one or two plane airlines. This is in total contrast to what is happening outside. I met with the CEO of Delta, which has over 1,100 planes. He said we have to look for more consolidation and bigger volume in order to benefit from economies of scale. Then there are the mergers, such as that which happened between Air France and KLM. This is what is happening in the international market. In the Arab world we are always opening new carriers with a few planes. How can they compete?

Is MEA management not at all interested in running TMA, and why not?

At this stage no. Let me be very clear: it is not attractive to us. It does not add anything to MEA. In the future, it might depend on TMA’s situation and the cargo volume at BIA. It depends on whether or not there will be a cargo village, which cargo carriers are coming to Beirut and the level of competition. Things change. Again, like I said, timing is everything.

How is the company responding to the arrival of charter airlines?

We are not a direct competitor in terms of prices but what is worrying is that our open skies policy is not regulated. By this I mean that some subsidized carriers in the region are selling fares that do not reflect the reality of their operating costs and a fare structure that is not based on commercial considerations. This means the competition is not worried about making a loss. This can be as high as $40 to $50 million per year. It is the duty of the government to ensure fair competition, an efficient market structure and a better end product for the customer. Otherwise these carriers could force you out of the market.

Would you care to name these carriers?

I don’t have to. Everybody knows them. Yesterday you received an MSN message telling you that they are selling the seat at $150 to any point in the Gulf. We all know that cost per seat when the plane is full is more than $300 during the high season. They buy the planes and then look at the market, whereas we look at the markets and we buy the planes. But it is not only the charter carriers. Cyprus Airways have come into this market with excess capacity and have reduced their fares. The result was a disaster to the market and to them. They made a loss of $40 million last year and they have had to restructure their operations. Then you have the problem with equal access to the markets, which we at MEA do not have. For example, if you want to fly daily to Frankfurt or London we get bad time slots, making the cost per flight very high, but when they come to Beirut they have more beneficial timings. The basic rules of perfect competition, which are part of the US anti-trust laws, are not adopted in Lebanon, so we are operating in an unfair market. We need to look at reciprocity equal access and subsidized carriers. We are pro-open skies and we are pro competition but we would like to compete equally.

It has been five years since you were appointed. What have been the high and low points?

When I received the first new planes, it was really the most important period for me. I felt at the time that this was the result of everything we had worked for. We had the youngest fleet in the world we were a profitable company. A page had been turned.

And the worst time?

Like I said earlier, it was when we laid off the employees. It is hard to tell people to leave their jobs and it was very difficult for me personally. One bad year was 1999. The board was attacked and condemned without knowing why and we were impotent. It was a bad year but that was all in the past. We are looking forward.

It used to be that an explanation on new technology products could conveniently divide itself into three separate sections of use: personal, home and office. Each section would have its own array of products and its own technical jargon. Prices and functionality would invariably increase along a fairly even trajectory the closer you moved to the bulky world of corporate computing and communication. Mixing was not only discouraged (by most manufacturers and advertisers alike, who relied on profits from segmented markets), it was, well, downright impossible.

Alas, the world has changed. The techno-reviewer of old no longer has the benefit of clear boundary lines, much less a limited number of product lines from a limited number of well-known companies. Prosumer (professional/consumer). Convergence. Mobility. These are the current buzzwords used by the growing number of gadget magazines and websites, a phenomenon matched by the equally growing field of technology products.

In the midst of such confusion there is, of course, an abundance of pitfalls and opportunities – for both the daring reviewer and consumer. Price. Compatibility. Functionality. Durability. Though all these factors must be taken into account – and all present there own problems even now – rare is the techno-purchase that successfully navigates between all four. Rarer still is the consumer who can avoid the fifth axis, the ‘golden rule’ of techno-gadgetry: Thou shall not purchase or attempt to put to use a useless invention. Although a new gadget may indeed have its “uses,” if it is quickly shelved – as many PDAs have been – or is not updated with the latest virus protection or software updates, then it essentially becomes “useless.” (Try reviving that first generation PDA that you never got to work and you will quickly discover that it is basically “useless”). “People don’t realize that much of this technology needs to be maintained, it needs to be constantly updated. If is not, then it quickly becomes useless,” said Karim Harb, a Lebanese technologist, telecommunications expert and gadget aficionado. In Lebanon, of course, consumers face their own unique challenges since not all of the more basic functions of certain innovations can be used here. Wi-Fi, for example, the popular wireless internet and home/office networking technology, is only legal in a small number of areas, while Voice Over Internet Protocol technology, or internet telephony, is barred outside of intra-building use. As such, mobile PDAs and laptops, or office phones, lose key elements of their overall convergence capability.

And one should not forget that the Lebanese consumer also faces a final problem in the world of techno-gadgetry. “You don’t have any stores that are dedicated to gadgets,” explained Harb with a simple shrug of his shoulders to accentuate his annoyance. “You had the 460 store that was open on Hamra street – it closed down because the market was too small. Now all gadget stores are small sections of bigger stores – like at BHV and Virgin, for example. They don’t have a permanent supply of new stuff that comes out and you are never sure if you will find what you are looking for.” Supply problems aside, and with a wary eye towards overdoing it, there are indeed a number of recently introduced or improved technology products that can offer both the frugal and free-spending Lebanese consumer a wealth of innovative, productive and downright entertaining improvements to everyday life – at home, alone or at work.

Digital music players

One of the clear leaders in the general category of ‘improving life as we know it’ is, of course, the digital music player. In this arena, an epic fight is shaping up between Apple’s iPod and Sony’s new Walkman. Unfortunately, when Sony Corp. president, Kunitake Ando, showed off his company’s latest challenge to Apple’s increasing dominance in the area of sleek MP3 players, he held the so-called Network Walkman upside down.

It was not a good start.

Since that time, the 20 Gigabyte player, priced at around $400, has met with mixed reviews. Even on Sony’s home turf in Japan, press reports have been ebullient over the Japanese consumers’ apparent fascination with the iPod. The Walkman is “impossibly slim,” as some reviewers have put it, at 14mm (it is roughly the length of a credit card). It can store around 13,000 songs encoded on Sony’s ATRAC3 format and has a battery life of 30 hours (the iPod now lasts 12). Of course, the 13,000 song claim is a bit overstated – to get that much onto the Walkman, a lot of compression is necessary which degrades the sound. The iPod, for its part, can offer up to 40 gigabytes for around $600 – its 20 Gig version that ships soon is $100 less than the new Sony entrant. iPod is also comparable in thinness, though a bit heavier than the Walkman. Significantly though, it syncs up through either a PC or a Mac (the Walkman works only with PCs) to Apple’s iTunes online music service that has been wildly popular – songs are 99 cents for download. Although iPod has apparently not yet caught on with the Lebanese consumer, its ease of use and flexibility will make it stand out even as it benefits from Sony’s own push to increase the worldwide desirability of the digital music player.

When PDA, cell phone and camera meet

On the higher end of the market, two all-in-one phones immediately stand out: Sony Ericsson’s new P910, which ships this fall, and the new iMate II. Although the Ericsson model is priced around $900 (the latest iMate sells for around $1,300), both offer comparable, that is, suburb features. Both can support huge memory sticks, up to one gigabyte, for loads of pictures (although the quality ceiling here is lower than most of the mid-range digital cameras). When used with a DVD burner and encoder software, you can view your favorite movies on each device’s color screen in stereophonic sound with a smooth playback. Both offer mobile internet, chat, email and a wide range of Windows XP supported applications – including all standard PDA functions. Both also sync up wirelessly to laptops and are GSM Tri-Band phones. Although the processor is more powerful on the iMate II, the P910 is still a very imposing device with more than enough processing power to get most jobs done. [START OPTIONAL TRIM]On the lower end of the almost converged market, both the new Sprint PM-8920 camera phone and the Palmone Zire PDA immediately come to mind for. The Sprint phone is priced at $300 and offers some modest PDA features. Significantly, it is the Sprint’s first megapixel camera, which means the quality of its images can finally compete with the mid-range digital cameras. Palmone’s new PDA entry, for its part, priced at a mere $150 dollars, comes highly recommended by the tech press. It includes wireless synching, handwriting recognition technology, 8MB of memory, a full range of PDA features and what is described by some as “an iPod look and feel.” It is a solid purchase for the first time PDA buyer that just needs basic applications and ease of use. [END OPTIONAL TRIM]

For those of you who still like the good old fashioned cellphone, Seimens’ new M65 won’t let you down. It’s rugged design with rubber seals and protective metal frame mean it’s water resistant, dust and shockproof as well as offering integrated VGA photos and a video camera, all for $399

Phone accessories

No matter what device you purchase, a few accessories now on the market can fairly be described as “must haves.” One is Plantronics’ M3000 Wireless headset for cell phones. At $100 and with eight hours of battery life, it makes driving and talking safe and easy. So too does the new Q2 XDA from iMate, which is around $150. The wireless device hooks up to a car stereo and essentially operates the phone (kept in your briefcase if you wish) via a small touchpad on the dashboard. And finally, there is the Smart solar charger, which for $60, uses the sun to recharge or operate a cell phone. Ideal if you’re in a jam, but beware of uselessness: it could take up to eight hours or more for a full charge… and it has to be sunny out.

Digital cameras

Two recent cameras, one from Canon and one from Sony, seem to be sweeping the technology award world (an admittedly strange world). The Canon EOS 300D, priced at around $600, truly puts the “pro into prosumer.” The camera offers 6.3 megapixels for great pictures at any size. It is not meant to fit into a shirt pocket, however; it is meant to take great pictures with the ease and immediacy of a digital, and it does that better than its rivals. The Sony Cyber-Shot DSC-W1, Sony’s latest Cyber-Shot product, is now in stores for around the same price as the Canon. It weighs in at five megapixels, has a large 2.5 inch solar LCD screen and is far smaller than the Canon. Excellent, in other words if resolution and size are what you’re after. Mini hard drives

Although one gig mini hard drives that fit on a key chain are now available for around $400, Jetflash’s 256 MB mini drive provides the best value at $85. Mini hard drives are simple in their construction, so no need to buy for the name.

The ‘World’s Smallest’ Notebook PC, portable DVD player

From the manufacturer Lilliput comes the impressively small Life Book P7010. At 1.4 kilos, the 10.6 inch screen can indeed seem like just a screen – or one of those not-quite-accepted tablet PCs that are supposed to merge laptops and tower PCs. At around $2,000, you get a powerful enough processor, based on the new Intel Centrino mobile technology, all standard Windows-based functionality and a CD-RW/DVD drive.

Even though it’s small, you could also probably use a Wi-Fi finder with the notebook so you don’t have to take it out every time you want to see if an Internet hotspot is available. At $35, Kensington’s keychain Wi-Fi finder is ideal.

If you don’t want everything bundled together, however, or you want a larger screen for mere viewing, then the new Designer Vision DVD player, out this fall, may be perfect. The battery can last up to six hours, and the flip-screen set up is 7 inches. Though in the middle in terms of size –is well worth the $600 cost for its design, picture quality and sturdiness.

LCD and Plasma Screens The high end and increasingly the medium level marketplace for TVs has decidedly turned toward two options: LCD and plasma. Traditionally used for laptop monitors and small screen devices, LCD TVs generally offer a longer viewing life and sharper picture. Plasmas generally have a brighter picture and greater viewing angles. LCDs, however, are generally restricted to a smaller screen size – Samsung, in fact, recently rolled out the largest LCD at 42 inches. Plasmas can get significantly bigger. Price is, of course, a huge factor here, since LCDs are generally 20% more expensive than plasmas, although LCD prices are dropping faster than plasmas. That said, one new offering from NEC, their 40 inch LCD screen which acts seamlessly as both a computer monitor and TV, is priced at only $4,000. At a resolution of 1280X1024, the NEC model clearly beats the new Blautech 42 inch plasma screen, also priced at $4,000 (the Blautech plasma only gets 800X640 resolution). On the higher end, there is, naturally, Sony. Here, especially, one can see the price difference between LCD and plasma – the new Sony 42 inch plasma screen, the KE-42TSE, is priced at 6,000. The best Sony LCD, the KDL-L42MRX1, is a whopping $14,000. The resolution on both Sony screens is superior to the lesser priced competitors; what’s more both have built in tuners, so the total package is remarkably compact and slender.

Accompanying any plasma or LCD purchase is, necessarily, the home theatre. MSI offers what is essentially a PC to operate the NEC screen. At $1,000, when combined with a Logitech 5.1 surround sound system (500 watts) for $400, what you get is a fast computer, a terrific flat screen and a home theater to go along with it. All run on Windows XP and have all of the capabilities of any new desktop computer setup: DVD player, CD writer etc. It is, in short, one of the best convergence offerings out there, in terms of both value and functionality, for the home.

If, however, you want an even more powerful, crisp and compact sound system for the home theater, then Bose is the clear leader. The new Lifestyle 35, which just hit stores, offers a five inch speaker array for full 5.1 surround sound, accompanied by a DVD/CD player. The package is steeply priced at $3,485. But, as with Sony, what you are paying for is the name, the quality and the service which goes along with the label.

Video recorders

As hard drive prices have come down dramatically, and as the number of channels has increased exponentially, the home video recorder has become an indispensable part of the home theatre experience. Two options jump out. First is the newly launched Samsung DVD-HR700. The global leader in digital convergence technology, Samsung’s new recorder, priced at around $700, allows users to record in three different formats, including DVD-RAM, which allows for remarkable flexibility in the types of devices that can play any recordings. The recorder is capable of 160 hours of taping, without comprising the high quality of the video that is captured and can also play and record simultaneously (an especially convenient function). At 69mm, it’s also a sleek complement to any equally slender flat screen. For work…at home or at the office

While laptops and computers have been getting more powerful and cheaper on a fairly predictable curve, several new market entrants offer some dramatic improvements over current offerings. One of these is Samsung’s all-in-one printer that actually seems to make good on the promise of convergence. The SCX-4100 is a black and white laser printer, digital copier and color scanner. Priced at less than $200, the machine puts laser printing within reach of the average desktop setup. At 600 dots per inch, color scans up to 4,800 dots per inch and 14 pages per minute, the printer is especially efficient. At 16 inches by 15 inches, it is also perfect for cramped dorm rooms. [BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM] At $369, HP’s new Photo smart 7760 offers what many families, individuals and companies want –a color printer that can print borderless pictures in brilliant resolution while tackling the everyday demands of document printing. The printer links easily to digital cameras, can print up to 21 pages per minute black and white (16 color), and carries an easy to use 4.6 inch LCD screen for fairly simple navigation. [END TRIM] Meanwhile the $1,200 WorkCentre M15 from Xerox offers 15 A4 prints per minute, crisp 1200 dpi print resolution, two-sided network printing, digital copying, electronic collation, color scanning and faxing. It really is a small and remarkably powerful machine. While the printers may be the workhorses of the desktop set-up, video projectors are fast becoming a necessary compliment in their own right. At under $2,000, it is now possible to have one of the clearest projection images available on the market. The Hitachi PJ-TX100, recently debuted, offers simple menu control, multiple connection ports for every imaginable device and a lightweight design that makes it easy to carry around for any kind of presentation – entertainment business or otherwise. Finally, for the truly converged home or office, there are Cisco’s IP phones. Although IP telephony is illegal in Lebanon, it is legal to use the technology within a company’s walls. This doesn’t really help the home user much, but for companies, the technology has been a boon. Cisco recently built a converged voice, video and data network for Kuwait’s Arraya Center that, at its core, is based on the IP telephones. It also did so recently for one large Lebanese company that is now saving almost $300,000 per year in maintenance and equipment fees. While Cisco’s offerings are more expensive than regular office phones, the value and savings come through the added functionality. Phones like the 79xx can reach up to $300, but by collapsing separate voice and data networks, thus eliminating separate maintenance charges, and by allowing for email, voicemail synching, plug-and-play capability, the IP phones are indeed the way we will all speak and share information in the coming years.

*Note: The internet prices that appear in the article may vary, sometimes substantially from local in-store prices.

It sure looks as if in the world and region, all things ICT are returning to normal. Shares in e-companies are no longer an anathema. The big market move of the season from a tech perspective, the Google IPO, clawed its way beyond obstacles to achieve figures that appear, all in all, more respectable than some headlines suggested. Earnings at multinational corporations from Cisco Systems to Dell look good – so good that a 5% quarterly drop in performance of Hewlett Packard’s enterprise server and storage division led the company last month to immediately sack three top executives, even as HP’s overall profits were up 9% for the quarter.

The big names are also hiring. IBM announced in August that it has 18,000 new jobs on offer to bring its worldwide headcount to 330,000 at the end of 2004 and Microsoft said they would hire 6,000 to 7,000 persons during the coming 12 months on top of their current staffing of 57,000. The latest news from the ICT employment market in Germany, Europe’s strongest economy, is that salaries for information and communications technology specialists have accomplished a full rebound to sector income levels of early 2001. Across the MENA region, ICT growth also is again in focus. From PC and software sales to continued surging numbers of mobile phone subscribers, market watchers make enthusiastic projections and global ICT companies court Arab markets for their promising potential, even as these markets are marginal in their annual reports. With many signs to the unmitigated importance of ICT for regional economies and new good days for people in the sector, it appears paramount for a country like Lebanon to do its utmost in preparing the best possible environment for ICT companies to thrive here. International and local experts and executives for firms of all sizes and specializations in the Lebanese ICT community agree not only (despite their differences on many other things) that the country still has a good shot at being an ICT location, but are also in total unison on where crucial changes are needed first. “ICT in the Arab world is a high priority and opportunity for economic development and inclusion in the digital information age,” Microsoft’s regional manager, Charbel Fakhoury, told EXECUTIVE, and enthused, “Lebanon’s ICT potential is still to be fully realized and we are witnessing a strong momentum and support from executive leadership to expedite Lebanon’s realization of the ICT opportunity.” The right size for the Lebanese ICT industry’s production would be around $2 billion, or 10% contribution to GDP, suggested economist Louis Hobeika to EXECUTIVE, and underscored how the country has come a long way in ICT development but has lost ground within the region. “In absolute terms we are perhaps moving forward, but in relative terms we are falling behind,” he said. “One of the obstacles for companies to locate in Lebanon are the high costs in the telecommunications sector, which are three times higher than in the UAE. Our ICT sector today is of average value and average performance.” In Hobeika’s view, Lebanon has several models in the Arab world to look to as examples of who is getting things right: Dubai already, and soon probably also Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. For Lebanon to gain a new edge in ICT, experts and industry members agree that one urgently required improvement is the establishment of special technology parks. Co-locating numerous companies from one industry in shared environments has proven to lead to interconnections and mutually supporting industrial clusters, enabling stakeholders to advance together and become fit for international competition. Clustering boosts efficiency. Due to ICT companies’ pronounced needs for communications technology and highly trained staff, dedicated tech industry zones, as shown by multiple studies and practical examples, are especially helpful to ICT firms for optimization of their development potential.

The ICT community in Lebanon recognized these potentials earlier than their colleagues and public officials in many other Middle Eastern countries and entrepreneurs started drafting plans for ICT parks as far back as 1997. However, up until today, no large-scale plan has been implemented here. By contrast, tech zones in the UAE, Jordan and Egypt were designed after the first such Lebanese projects – and implemented years ago. Thankfully, however, Lebanon has one ICT technology park, which is demonstrating, albeit at a smaller size, how such an endeavor can be just as successful here as in the industry’s more conspicuous international locations.

The Berytech technological pole incorporates three essentials of a cluster for a growing ICT sector: hosting services, communication facilities, and an incubator where startup businesses can take their first corporate steps. The pole, a $4.5 million project established under strong involvement of Universite Saint Joseph (USJ), opened its doors in November 2002 on a site adjacent to the USJ Mar Roukos campus overlooking Beirut. Not even in its third year, Berytech is already home to some 40 enterprises and is currently researching where it can build additional facilities. “Our plan is to expand every year by 15 to 20 companies between startup and hosted companies,” Berytech president Maroun Chammas told EXECUTIVE. This growth target foresees significant incremental increases in the size of the facility, and the master plan calls for building each year 3,000 to 4,000 square meters in facilities until 50,000 square meters are added to its current 8,000 square meters in built-up area. As this expansion cannot be undertaken on Berytech’s current 3,000 square meter plot, the institution is trying to get land nearby on properties owned by a monastic order or, alternatively, seek buildings in Beirut. The latter option would also suit some resident companies, who told the Berytech management that they would like to be closer to the city, but the business incubator for startup enterprises would in any case remain at the Mar Roukos location. According to Chammas, thus far, all companies located at Berytech have been successful in their business ventures. The pole is open to companies from seven sectors, with information technology and multimedia/communications most developed in their presence. Although the shareholder base of Berytech consists of the USJ, 10 banks and seven industrial enterprises, it is one of the challenges for startups at the pole to acquire financing. “The fact that people are at Berytech makes access easier but Lebanese banks have not developed the business of lending to startups,” Chammas said, “it is one of our responsibilities to ensure that the incubator inspires banks with confidence.”

Startup entrepreneurs receive special support in the pole’s business incubator for a limited period of time. Hosted companies pay charges of $13/m2 per month in rent and $15 per month and computer terminal in connectivity fees. Although these charges may appear substantial by local standards, they have a great advantage in being fully transparent and calculable, said Ralph Bitar, manager of Soft Mind, a developer of corporate software solutions. “Here, a flat fee covers everything. Costs are not higher than in other buildings but benefits are much larger,” he said, and after trying out several locations in Beirut, his firm had found locating at Berytech a great improvement. Habib Maaz, CEO of another software firm, Unilog, concurred, saying his firm had been at Berytech since January 2003, and it had proven a good choice and location, which also impressed foreign visitors.

With Berytech’s good reception in the market, Chammas said he saw potential for having many more poles of its type all throughout the country. “I believe there is room for expansion everywhere in Lebanon.”

Enter the Beirut Emerging Technology Zone. With a projected size based on a one million square meter site, the BETZ project is of a different dimension to Berytech and incorporates a scale that would make it perform in the same league as the Dubai Internet City, the Middle East’s showcase ICT zone. But whenever the BETZ topic comes to discussion these days, opinions among the Lebanese ICT community are divided. Initially put on the table in 1997 through a grant for a feasibility study by USAID, the BETZ concept actually dates back to the bubble days of the new economy. This in itself would not be a problem as the need for a substantial ICT industry zone is as great now as it was then. The problem arises from the project’s enormously sluggish evolution. For the first few years after the proposal’s creation, the BETZ feasibility grants were stuck in various government drawers, with government experts in favor of the project having to produce contrived explanations every time they were asked why the study was experiencing yet another delay in implementation. When the study finally came to see execution around 2002, it was carried out by an American consulting company – somewhat understandably, knowing that US funding in international assistance likes to work that way. Less clear was perhaps, why research for something called BEIRUT Emerging Technology Zone would spend much time evaluating sites in far corners of the nation. As several communities were examined, ICT and development enthusiasts in some of them invested themselves considerably to present their community as location of choice for the project. Relief should have set in when in spring of 2003, IDAL chairman Samih Barbir could make a jubilant announcement that BETZ would be built in Damour in a partnership between IDAL and the municipality. For many in the ICT community, this announcement came so late that they were inclined to question the government’s intentions and validity of the project in numerous respects or were simply in disbelief that BETZ could now be put on the promised fast track of construction and welcome its first tenants by autumn 2006. As if to prove them right, the municipal elections followed and with them a change of elected officials in Damour. Since then, the situation of the project has been obfuscated by disagreements and lagging negotiations, the latest results of which apparently were that the municipality no longer wants to be a partner in owning the project but merely wants to lease the land to BETZ and receive annual rent to the tune of $4 million. Rumours circulating about the municipality’s position moreover talk of local fears to see inflows of outsiders and a tossup of the town’s sectarian balance, instead of welcoming the project’s manifold opportunities for developing the community. For supporters of growth in the Lebanese ICT industry, this is worrying news, because they are convinced that missing out on BETZ now would mean missing out on a crucial chance.

“Microsoft has been a strong supporter of BETZ,” Fakhoury confirmed to EXECUTIVE, describing the zone as “a milestone ICT project that will show Lebanon’s commitment to encourage ICT.” His company was dedicated to continue discussions with stakeholders on how local and multinational IT companies would be able to contribute and benefit from BETZ but warned, “If the project does not get real support, a real boost, it will move slowly.”

In the revamping of cellular network operations in Lebanon, a joint venture under leadership of German company Detecon – itself a full subsidiary of Deutsche Telekom – was awarded a contract to manage the network formerly known as Cellis under a $201 million contract over 48 months. EXECUTIVE talked to Ineke Botter, who is the managing director of the new company, Fal Dete and, incidentally, the first top female executive of a company of its size in Lebanon.

You have stepped into the management of the former Cellis mobile phone network at the beginning of June. What are your impressions after the first three months?

When I came here, I quickly discovered that the personnel – what we have left – is very professional and skilled. That helps a lot. I also discovered that the people are very anxious to keep the business growing, which again is a big benefit to us. We are involved in several areas, beginning with the setup of Fal Dete Telecommunications as the managing company. On the other hand, we have to run the operations and we are running them on half force. About half of the staff left, but the company is undertaking the human resources project to bring staff again to acceptable levels. And we are starting new projects, like the numbering plan, studying business environment, assessing distributors and reviewing the plan of the company – so there is a whole lot to do. My first interest was to get the company up and running by September 1 with almost full staff.

How many employees do you have at present?

At September 1, our number is about 350.

Down the road, what head count do you plan for?

Approximately 400 in the autumn. But we aim to introduce new lines into the market at a very steady base. Each time you do that, you have to look at your personnel because the ratio, for example, between the contact center (to answer all the questions) and the number of subscribers is almost linear. We will grow further.

Your offer to manage the network was much lower than sums paid under previous arrangements. How could you give such an aggressive offer for managing the network?

One of the competing bidders had almost the same offer, so there are at least two people who have the same sort of opinion. I think [we could place this bid] because Detecon is in so many countries and has so much experience with how one can rationalize a company and make it more efficient. Of course, it has also to do with the fact that the sector was very cash rich in the past. In the last few years, it was not so cash rich. Detecon has experience with how to look at efficiencies in companies. We are looking at future proof systems to be put in place, which means that we will grow, but at a steady pace and in line with customer care needs and subscriber numbers.

What is in it for you? Isn’t it correct that as an operator, you do not participate in profits and if you increase profitability, you do not get a greater share?

I cannot comment on that. You have to talk to the shareholders. I am running the company and I have targets.

And these targets are to develop the company in terms of market penetration?

Yes, that is part of it. Of course, our bid was based on a business plan, and the business plan foresees growth in the market. Our company is the manager on behalf of the government. I am the chairperson and also the CEO. We have targets that are related first of all to the business plan that Fal Dete has, which was accepted by the government as an integral part of the network management agreement. Targets are that we manage it and improve the efficiency and put new systems in and make sure that especially the quality is of a high level. It also includes that we propose new services and make sure that the distribution network is in place.

This relationship is limited to managing the network over four years on behalf of the government?

The agreement is that we will manage the network for four years, with measuring activities to make sure that the quality is guaranteed. Some issues will be measured on a weekly, others on a monthly basis and the packet is to make sure that we have performance in our operation and serve the customer according to the government wishes. It doesn’t mean that we are sitting on a chair and just doing what the government says. We were also hired because we are a professional company and come up with ideas and suggestions. It is for the government to decide if they want to accept them.

Would it for instance be possible to switch in the near future from per minute billing to per second billing?

That is the government’s decision. To implement such a change in technical terms requires having information on the billing system and I actually asked this question. It is typical that older systems have more difficulties and you have to make sure that they are addressed. Are some of the network’s tech systems in need of an upgrade?

For sure. In the lifetime of our agreement we will have to replace equipment. For example there about 400 base stations. These do not only have an economic depreciation but also a technical depreciation time, and over the years, a lot of them will have to be replaced. We are carrying out studies now on the whole network to make sure that we understand where we have to upgrade and where the equipment is running out of lifetime.

What are your limits on numbering and the timeframe for a new numbering plan?

Between MTC and ourselves, we can have one million subscribers in the 03 numbering block. We will of course run into a limit and talks are ongoing between Fal Dete and the ministry. They have proposed new methodologies etc, and we are having a look at the technical and economic possibilities of how the proposals would work.

Where do you see the potential for mobile penetration in Lebanon?

Again, I have to refer back to the government, because the investments are done by the government. In our estimation we have predicted a 40% market penetration. But every step needs studies. It is price elasticity that drives the penetration and on the other hand the revenues. There is always equilibrium.

The Cellis services included value added systems such as the plugged portal and StarAd corporate advertising service. Are you developing them, or perhaps reducing some?

One thing is that we will at one point have a new brand name. Once we have a new brand, we will start marketing certain services. It is too early to say which ones we will market more than other ones. We are looking at all possibilities.

Have future fee structures and charges for new lines already been determined?

I cannot comment.

Does Detecon have a position in the discussion on the virtue of liberalization of telecoms markets?

From my personal experience, comparing the difference in development of the regulatory environment for instance between Eastern Europe and Lebanon, I have to admit that Eastern Europe is a lot further. But I have to also say that I had talks with the ministry about these regulatory talks and there is definitely a willingness from the ministry.

Beyond managing networks, Detecon is well known as consultants doing studies and advising governments on ICT. As far as the Middle East, is it correct that you have thus far been doing business only in Saudi Arabia?

There are Saudi partners and we are doing business development with them as we speak, for other countries in the region.

Detecon is expanding in the Middle East?

Detecon is in many countries, and yes, from a communications point of view, the Middle East is very interesting for us.

Let’s talk a bit more about brand building. What does Fal Dete stand for?

That is the manager, it is not a brand. Fal stands for a Saudi Group, and Dete for Detecon.

And you are phasing out the Cellis name?

We have phased it out in a sense that Cellis was sometimes used as the company name and there was a little bit of confusion. We are making some efforts to get the company on the map; that is why we have put the banners with Fal Dete up on this building. That is the first step. We should not confuse the customers, so we introduce the company now and next we will introduce the brand. At some point, the brand awareness for the new brand should be higher than for the company name.

How much of a budget are you allocating to the development of the new brand?

Sizeable.

Can you provide numbers on that?

No. It is again something that we need to discuss with the government.

Is the new brand name being devised by you or by the government?

It is a joint project.

Can you reveal the brand name?

No, we haven’t decided yet (laughs). It is still in production.

By what time do you anticipate the establishment of the brand to be concluded?

It will be concluded by the end of 2004. It is a big project.

How many members of the Detecon staff are working with Fal Dete?

At the moment there is a group of consultants but it is diminishing almost per week. Then there is the management, which consists of four persons. The management stays for four years and the consultants are phased out.

And the bulk of employees are Lebanese?

Yes, except for the four managers.

You said that the level of human resource quality is good?

Yes, and talking from personal experience, that is what I find. I left the Netherlands in 1988 and have worked all over the world since then. I worked in very rich countries like Sweden and Switzerland and in very poor countries, like Kosovo. And if I see how the people are so ambitious to grow and make their lives better, I am always impressed. We appreciate that a lot.

Are employment benefits and salaries comparable to what staff members could earn before, or are there differences?

Reorganization also means that we looked at salary scales, etc. I cannot comment on the level but we are, in my opinion, still on a good pay scale.
 

“A gun is a man’s jewelry.” So says an old Arabic proverb. Traditionally, a father would buy his son a gun when he is born in the same way a girl would receive a pair of gold earrings. In Lebanon, this tradition is all but dead, but the Lebanese still love their guns. In fact, the country is loaded with them. It is estimated that there are over 1 million weapons in private circulation. A significant percentage of them are sporting guns and rifles. Despite a nine-year-old ban on hunting some 30,000 rifles and shotguns – costing between $300 (for a mass produced Turkish 12-bore) to $100,000 for the top of the range Purdeys – are sold in Lebanon every year. There are over a dozen importers and some 50 medium to large distributors operating in a market with a worth of up to $2 million a year. With the right permits, importing and selling hunting weapons is legal. The import of handguns for private – as opposed to government use – is not. This black market is made up of discreet gun collectors, who have the money to pay over the odds for the world’s finest handguns. Then, there are the heavy caliber weapons, both those creaking relics of the civil war (mainly small arms such as the 7.62mm AK47s and M16s and the equally ubiquitous, shoulder-fired RPG launchers, which are coveted by thugs, bodyguards and nostalgics of every stamp) and the new hi-tech hardware destined for private armies and resistance groups, such as Hizbullah. Finally, while Lebanon is not an integral cog in the $30 billion global arms trade, some of its movers and shakers are Lebanese.

The law

Unless you have a permit, it is illegal to carry a non-hunting weapon about your person in Lebanon. This means anything from a Derringer to Stinger. A license can be obtained from the ministry of defense (although one issued by the Syrian ministry of defense gives the owner greater kudos) and, while there is no exact criteria laid down for who can get a permit under what circumstances, an applicant basically has to prove that the weapon is a matter of life and death for himself, his family or his business. Having the right connections can also work miracles.

Politicians often have a permit, as do diamond dealers, money runners, security personnel, bodyguards and, last but certainly not least, undercover law enforcement officers. To own a hunting rifle or shotgun a permit is required from the ministry of interior. To hunt however, requires a second permit, issued annually by the ministry of agriculture, even though hunting has been banned since 1995 after the UN laid down conditions for the donation of millions of dollars to establish a string of nature reserves in the country. Last January however, the law was changed, allowing hunting of certain species at certain times, although this law still has to be ratified. When it is, enforcement will be the responsibility of the ministry of environment.

Gun importers and agents need a permit from the ministry of interior to trade. Both importers and distributors need to satisfy the ministry of defense that they comply with all safety requirements concerning the storage of arms and ammunition, before the permit from the ministry of interior can be issued.

A-hunting we will go

The market for hunting guns is currently worth an estimated $1.5 to $2million. Business boomed just after the war, when peace allowed hunting enthusiasts to resume their old hobby. It was to be a short-lived reunion. The 1995 ban hit the sector hard, causing sales to drop by some 40% to 50% (one importer has sold 16,000 guns since 1993, half of which were sold before 1995).

There are 17 gun importers in Lebanon and some 260 shops selling hunting equipment, although most are quite small, located in the villages, and only offer a handful of guns and cartridges. This leaves around 50 medium to large outlets, which sell a wider range of hunting weapons (although many of these push the definition of “hunting” and would be equally suited to the streets of Fallujah than the mountains of Lebanon) as well as binoculars, camouflage jackets, tents, and boots. Prices of guns vary considerably. A quality shot gun, of say the Italian Beretta or Benelli, costs an average of $400 to $600, while you pay up to $6,000 for the top of the line models. As much as 90% of guns sold in Lebanon fall under the first category.

If you opt for a handmade, bespoke gun, expect to pay between $15,000 to $50,000. The Lebanese agent for Beretta recently sold a $16,000 gun to the Sultan of Bahrain, but this is small change when compared to those made by the British craftsmen of Holland & Holland and Purdey, whose antique models sell at auction for hundreds of thousands of dollars. On a recent trip to Iraq, however, one lucky Lebanese businessman picked up a pair of Holland & Holland rifles, worth around $40,000, for $7,000 from a cash strapped owner.

Handguns

Unlike the US, where a handgun – and even a machine gun – can be bought on nearly every block, the private sale of handguns in Lebanon is illegal. Supply is limited and demand among gun aficionados has pushed-up the price to roughly three times the normal market value. While in the US, an average Colt or Glock will cost you about $600, expect to pay around $2,000 in Lebanon. Silencers and other deeply desirable options – engraving etc. – come at an extra cost.

Lebanese collectors, unlike their counterparts in the Gulf, who like their guns plated with gold or encrusted with diamonds, generally opt for the original or “classic” models in mint condition. A small collection (say between 10 to 15 guns) can be worth as much as $30,000 to $40,000, but some local collectors have rooms with weapons worth nearly $1 million.

In the same way that a watch can be much more than just a timepiece, so too is a gun more than just a weapon to a collector. But like the man who wears a Casio digital, the gun enthusiast who wants a no-frills gun that will never let him down will buy a Browning. Developed originally in Belgium at the turn of the century, it has today become the standard issue for many armies and law enforcement agencies around the world. In Lebanon, a Browning 9mm can cost as little as $100.

Heavier items

During the Civil War, Lebanon was flooded with arms. The USA and Israel supplied the Christian militias. The Libyans, Saudis and other Arabs states armed the Palestinians and their leftist allies; Iraq came to aide of General Aoun, while Iran and Syria supplied Amal and Hizbullah. When the war ended, the Lebanese army impounded much of this huge stockpile, but a significant portion was sold on to other militias, especially in the Balkans, fighting their own civil wars.

Equally large numbers of small arms – M-16s and AK 47s – have been stashed away, part of the national paranoia that one day all hell would again break loose. Many found their way onto the open market. While an M-16 can cost up to $1,000 on the international market, in Lebanon it can be bought for as little as $400. AK47s, at $200, come even cheaper.

After the end of the Cold War, the market was flooded with surplus arms from both sides (it is these small arms – and the hugely unreliable but very spectacular RPGs – that are harassing the coalition forces in Iraq) but the really heavy stuff – tanks and artillery – came from the cash-strapped former communist countries of Eastern Europe. Today, you can buy a former East German tank for $40,000, while an RPG will not cost you more than $1,000. Hizbullah’s mortar and Katusha rocket systems have a price tag of several thousand of dollars.

Recently, a sizeable number of MP5K automatic machine guns have entered the Lebanese market from Iraq. This American-made weapon was used mainly by the Iraqi police and army and used to cost around $6,000 in Lebanon. Today, they can be picked up for $3,000. It is expected that many more weapons from the pre-war regime will flood the market in coming months and years, such are the huge stockpiles of conventional arms amassed by Saddam Hussein.

In any country the biggest spender on arms would normally be the army, and security services, but in Lebanon, most of the post-war budget goes on salaries and maintenance (the army’s 300 tanks are at least 30 years old) and no major investments have been made, although the US did sell the Lebanese government some old helicopters – the ones seen on parades and state visits – for bargain basement prices.

The international arms trade

According to Stockholm International Peace Institute, global military expenditure and arms trade form the largest spending in the world at over $950 billion annually, half of which is bankrolled by the US. By far the largest part is spent on operations, personnel and maintenance. The total value of global arms transfers between 1999 and 2002 was $139.8 billion, some 60% of which was paid by developing countries.

The bulk of the business is composed of highly expensive fighter jets, ships, submarines, tanks and other big items, which are sold mainly by and to governments. The world’s main producers are UN Security Council members, the USA, Russia, Britain, China and France, followed by Israel, South Africa and several smaller European countries. Private arms dealers generally supply the smaller arms, with which most wars are fought – rifles, machine guns, grenades, mortars and RPG launchers. There are an estimated 600 million small arms in circulation around the world, which cause an estimated 500,000 deaths every year.

Arms brokers come in handy when governments intend to sell weapons to clients that are considered too controversial – guerillas, revolutionaries and dictatorial regimes. One of the world’s most famous arms brokers is Lebanese: Sarkis Soghanalian (see box). According to London-based Jane’s Intelligence Review, the unofficial global trade is worth an estimated $2 billion to $10 billion depending on who is fighting whom. Arms dealers never work alone, so it is an open secret that despite the UN embargo, Germany supplied Croatia in the Balkan War, Russia armed Serbia, and Iran and the USA armed Bosnia.

The task of a private arms dealer is not only to guarantee that the weapons arrive and money is paid, but most of all, to ensure that the paper trail concerning the weapons’ origins cannot be traced back to the supplier. The deal is, therefore, executed by a string of shell companies and off-shore banks. Most essential, is that the broker knows how to obtain a so-called “end-user certificate,” which states that the arms will not be sold on to third parties. Bolivia is believed to be a major trade hub on the black market. Switzerland comes in handy on the financial side of deals and has traditionally regarded arms trade as just another business, while London, home to over 300 major dealers among whom several are Lebanese, is the trade capital of the world.

Sarkis Soghanalian

Born in 1939, this 150-kilo Lebanese of Armenian descent made his name and fortune during the Cold War, as the CIA’s main business partner. For two decades he was based in the USA, brokering all kinds of deals that broke official embargos. He started his trade by funneling weapons to Lebanon’s Christian militias, before supplying rebels in Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Argentina. He went on to arm Iraq under the reign of Saddam Hussein. He claims everything he did was with the knowledge of US government officials. He was briefly jailed after the Gulf War and is currently standing trial in absentia in Peru for supplying East German AK47s he had bought from Jordan to the Peruvian government, which eventually ended up in the hands of Columbian rebels.