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Business

Architecture & Design: Spoils of war

by Peter Speetjens October 1, 2004
written by Peter Speetjens

Market in Brief

Lebanon’s architecture and interior design sector is in today’s market, worth an estimated $40 to $45 million. It is an industry driven by fierce competition, where projects are scarce and registered architects – some 6,000 – in abundance. In fact, the value of construction in Lebanon is accounted for by only a handful of, often eye-catching, projects in and around Beirut. The narrow and high-end construction market is served by some twenty architectural firms, which employ a total of some 200 to 400 architects to design and execute most of the projects.

There are three firms that employ about 50 architects and boast a turnover of $5 million or more, followed by a dozen companies employing between 10 and 20 architects with an estimated turnover of $1 to $2 million. Hopes that there would be a boom in the construction and architecture market were resuscitated by the establishment of Solidere in 1995, but by the turn of the century, the market slowed down. Since the infamous events of 9/11, however, both sectors are picking up, as more and more Gulf Arabs have returned to Lebanon, both as tourists and investors, buying land and developing property. Most large hotels and residential projects are in fact developed partly or fully by Arab investors.

The law

To work as an architect in Lebanon, one needs to register with the Lebanese Order of Architects and Engineers and a number of qualifications must be met. Most importantly, one has to be a graduate from an accredited Lebanese or foreign university and must be a holder of the Lebanese nationality for at least 10 years. Interestingly, one also needs to have a clean criminal record. Once registered, one pays an annual fee of some $400 for medical insurance and pension rights. After being registered in the order, an architect needs to obtain a license from the ministry of public works to perform to work in the profession.

A special committee, consisting of members of the Lebanese Order of Architects and Engineers, the university and the ministry of public works and higher education, examines and decides upon the request. There are currently over 5,000 architects who are members of the Lebanese order, as well as some 15,000 civil engineers, 5,000 electric engineers and 5,000 mechanical engineers. But because Tripoli has its own order and not all architects are registered, it is estimated that the number of architects is probably double that number.

Education

There are currently eight accredited Lebanese universities that offer architecture as a major and each year, some 350 to 400 graduates enter the market. Most of them will stay in Lebanon, while others opt for a career in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia. Several of Lebanon’s topnotch universities, most notably ALBA and AUB, offer an education that is also valued abroad. Considering the figures listed above, it is no wonder that many students leave to work in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia or the United States, as soon as they have the chance.

Salaries & Fees

A fresh architect graduate will earn an average salary of some $500 the first year of employment, which will then increase by some 10% a year. Naturally, a top student being drafted by a top bureau will be able to ask for more. The standard fee for an architectural and engineering office is 7% of the project’s construction cost, excluding indirect costs such as permits. The 7% is broken down as follows: 2% for site supervision, 2% is for the work of civil, electrical and mechanical engineers, which leaves 3% for the architect’s fee.

Surprisingly, the bigger the project, the smaller the architect’s fee, relatively. In case of a $200 million project, for example, no developer will accept a percentage based fee and so a lump sum will be agreed upon, which on average amounts to half of the 7%. For a small project, however, the architect will refuse to work for a percentage, as the design of $300,000 villa can be as much work as that of a $30 million office block or hotel.

Residential

The lion share of Lebanon’s residential market is represented by the handful of high rise buildings that are set to appear in the BCD. Facing the marina, the Marine, Platinum and Beirut Towers are being built, while at Riad el Solh Square, the multi-use Landmark Building is set for construction. The combined overall value, including the price of land, is some $700 million.

The towers combine state of the art design, overwhelming luxury and a magnificent view of the sea and mountains and carry a price tag starting at $4,000m2. Still, most of the apartments have been sold mostly to Gulf Arabs. Together with a dozen of other, smaller apartment blocks and luxury hotels, up to $1.5 billion is being poured into the heart of Beirut, making it Lebanon’s hottest property by far.

Most of the buildings in downtown Beirut have been designed by foreign architects, with Spanish architect Ricardo Bofil signed on for the Platinum Tower and French architect Jean Nouvel responsible for the Landmark Building. With an eye on distinctive designs and future value, Solidere prefers so-called signature buildings by famous foreign architects. As a foreign architect is not allowed to work independently in Lebanon, after the initial design is submitted, all executable drawings and details will be taken care of by a local partner. It is for this reason that Bofil is working with Nabil Gholam on the Platinum Tower project, and ERGA group is executing the original French designs of Saifi Village.

Seeing the value of the projects in downtown, most architectural and engineering firms will receive a fixed amount of money, roughly amounting to 3% of construction costs. Other than in downtown Beirut, several high-end residential projects are being built in Verdun, Ramlet al Baida, Ashrafieh and Ras Beirut.

Generally, the further you move out of Beirut’s inner circle and its direct surroundings, the smaller and less valuable the projects being executed. The lower-end of the market for affordable middle class apartments with a price of $250 to $500m2 is virtually stagnant, which is partly due to the fact that the price of sand, cement and steel has doubled over the last few years, while government subsidies for social housing projects are non existent.

The result is a dozen of very expensive residential apartment projects that represent the main value of the overall market and that are generally being executed by a dozen or two high profile companies. The near future of lucrative residential buildings lies in the mountains, said one architect, where more and more new villas of Arab investors will appear. The real money however, he added, is to be made in Dubai and Qatar, not in Lebanon.

Hotels

The market for design and construction of hotels in Lebanon is similar to that of the residential sector. The $140 million Mövenpick hotel and $100 million Four Seasons Hotel are both Saudi investments, the new $70 million Summerland Hotel and the proposed $125 million effort to rebuild the Hilton Hotel are combined Saudi-Lebanese investments, while the Metropolitan Hotel was built by the Dubai-based Habtoor Group. Most of the newly built hotels in the Aley-Bhamdoun area are also partly or fully foreign investments.

Responsible for hotel designs and execution of those designs are both local and foreign architects. For example, the “white waves” design of the Mövenpick Hotel, which was built over an already existing concrete structure, was largely designed by the ERGA group. The project’s overall price was $140 million, including the price of land. Construction costs roughly amounted to some $70 million, including the pools and a marina. The hotel itself, excluding interior design, cost some $20 million, for which the combined fee for architects, engineers and site supervision amounted to an estimated $600,000.

Offices

The market for the construction of office buildings is largely non-existent. With up to 60% of the offices in downtown Beirut remaining empty, there is just too little demand. The AN NAHAR building was one of the last major office blocks to appear in Beirut. It cost only $12 million to construct, as the design was kept extremely simple and functional, using only the most basic materials and leaving the interior design for the client to handle, which is why, on the third floor, pipes and cables are seen sticking out of the walls.

The building was designed by Pierre Khoury – who also signed on the ESCWA building and BLOM headquarters facing Commodore Square – for a lump fee of an estimated $100,000. Concerning the state of the market, it is significant to note that Khoury’s firm, which employs 15 architects, is also responsible for the design of Park View in the BCD. Originally, Park View was to become an office building, but it now will serve as a residential tower, with high-end luxury apartments, most of which have been already sold. Individual office buildings are being built, especially for banks, but as far as the overall market is concerned, most architects agree that it is absolutely essential for the downtown SOUQS projects to be completed, as it is hoped that the area will serve as a major catalyst to developing the surrounding office space.

Architecture and economics

Unfortunately, Lebanon generally does not have a lot of good architecture, which presents not just a problem from an aesthetic, but economics point of view as well. Bad architecture costs money, certainly in the long run. Take, for example, the overwhelming majority of apartment blocks that are just concrete boxes put on top of each other. They pop up everywhere in the country, spoiling the view and natural beauty, which – increasingly scarce – represent an increasing economic value. What’s more, many of the buildings are badly constructed, not able to withstand the withering effects of time let alone an earthquake, as contractors aim to save money by using less steel.

Then there are the office buildings that have been erected to emulate the predominantly glass structures in Dubai. Most architects agree that this is very suitable building style for colder countries, as the glass helps heat up buildings and thus saves money. In the Middle East however, the opposite is true. With the sun blasting over 10 hours a day, the building becomes a glass house, causing electricity bills to skyrocket because of the constantly running ACs.

Another major problem is the absolute lack of urban planning in the country. Basically, anyone can build anything anywhere: today, you have a view over the Mediterranean Sea, tomorrow it’s blocked by another building, while parks are virtually non existent. The only town in Lebanon that does have a policy of urban planning is Deir al Qamar, where Fadi Chiniara has formulated for free a set of basic rules that every new building needs to meet to get a construction permit – including requirements for height, roof and façade – to keep the town’s traditional character intact. With an eye on tourism, it will be no doubt a policy that pays off, certainly in the long run, which is part of the reason why Walid Jumblatt has approached Chiniara to do something similar for the Chouf.

INTERIOR DESIGN

It is impossible to indicate the value of the interior design market, as there is no regulatory body and basically anyone can work as an interior designer. As a general rule, the client indicates how much they want to spend on the interior of their home, hotel, shop or restaurant. Depending on the choice of material and luxury, the average price to execute a design varies between $500 and $1,200m2, which includes all accessories, such as furniture, tiles and carpets.

The initial design will cost some 10% of the interior’s overall cost, while the designer or architect responsible for the execution of the design will charge another 8% to 12%. Rumor has it that the future 3,000m2 interior of a Saudi official will cost no less than $500,000. The market leader of interior design in Lebanon is Cercle Hitti.

Its interior design department, led by Dory Hitti, employs some 15 interior architects and designers. It signs for both design and execution, yet not necessarily in the same package. The lion share of Cercle Hitti’s designs concern residential buildings, but the company does the interior of offices, showrooms, restaurants and hotels as well. Some of its notable clients are the Sheraton Coral Beach and Heliopolis Hotel.

The big advantage of Cercle Hitti is that the company also sells furniture, beds and lamps, which allows it to offer the client a package deal. Some of the other well-known designers operating in the market are Jean Luc Mengi and Dada, who do more classical interiors for mainly wealthy Lebanese and Arab clients, while Rony Fatte and Galal Mahmoud specialize in more modern designs.

Unlike the Lebanese Order of Architects and Engineers, there is no official regulating and protective body for interior designers. Working with an unreliable designer, qualified or not, can be costly; there are known cases of designers selling clients fake art works and antiques, or selling them for highly inflated prices.

 

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Business

Asking the experts for advice

by Thomas Schellen October 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Volatile times bring out the best virtues of proper financial planning. That’s why to ensure that an investment pays off, one must get smart advice on products that meet an investor’s needs, paired with sound guidance in overall portfolio allocation and backed by thorough contextual research. But before committing to a relationship with a top finance house in volatile times – which appears a permanent condition in Lebanon for now – the investor is increasingly asking for information on what the experts are thinking. Around the world, brokerage firms and asset management experts indulge those requests by producing – carefully non-committal, of course – investment advice columns, market outlooks, and research highlights. So that being the case, why would the larger share of capable investment counselors in Beirut respond to an inquiry into the general direction of their advice over the coming six to 12 months with “I refuse to answer that question”?

Tailoring advice

Well, first because there is no one-size-fits-all piece of investment advice. To draw up a real portfolio one needs to tailor it to the situation of the client, the experts contend.

Not only the income situation but also personal need, age, gender, family situation, occupation, market knowledge, risk aversion and perception of local risk all must be taken into the equation, said the chairman of Financial Funds Advisors, Jean Riachi. “It is a very complex analysis that needs to be done on every person.”

This would explain why good investment advice can contribute as much to a person’s financial peace of mind as a bespoke suit can do for his appearance. It also reveals how client psychology is at least as important to financial services as economic occurrences are. Two individuals with the exact same profile on income and personal situation, in theory, should have the same portfolio. But, if one is experienced in investing in mutual funds while the other isn’t, “in reality, they should not have the same portfolio because their risk perception is not the same. If someone has never invested, he is likely to panic at the first drop and people get out of mutual funds if they are disappointed during a very short period – even though we tell them at the beginning that they should have a long-term approach,” Riachi said.

That speaks volumes about how young the relationship between the Lebanese and modern investment tools really is. In the past decade of a newly materialized post-war investor landscape in the country, financial institutions had to juggle the universal expectations and disappointments of their clients in context of a situation where these, often inexperienced, clients had to deal with either distant markets or very immature local investment environments.


Maturing investor confidence

For the financial firms, this evolution thus involved their share of conflict experiences, where disgruntled clients showed their mastery in the rituals of blaming others. But while it appears still common practice among local financial firms to guide overenthusiastic or excessively self-confident clients discreetly into the direction they should move without letting them feel that they are being nudged along, the brokers and traders also agree that the maturity of Lebanese investors has increased substantially.

It is refreshing then, that a few experts would volunteer some general advice for investor directional thinking over the coming six to 12 months. Arab Finance Investment House general manager Jamil Jaroudi, taking the perspective of SHARI’A-compliant advice, suggested that a good portfolio for investments in Lebanon could allocate 20% to 30% to productive real estate, 20% to 30% to liquid assets, 20% to Mourabaha trade finance paper and 20% to industry or agro-industry. In line with the assessments by international ratings agencies, one could not advise clients to keep all their money in Lebanon, offered the head of capital markets at Fidus, Nicolas Sawan. “A conservative client could keep 20% of his bonds in Lebanon and the remainder in investment-grade bonds,” he said.

In geographic allocation, a conservative investor today should not keep more than 50% of his total wealth in Lebanon, whereas an aggressive one could go up to 80%, Sawan suggested, and in asset allocation, fixed income and funds could account for 40% to 50% of a sound portfolio, equity markets 40% and the rest in cash. US markets, still appearing bullish in the longer term, could open some opportunities for traders, with some volatility towards the end of the year. Capital-guaranteed funds should benefit from the rising interest rate environment allowing fund managers to achieve higher returns in coming months, and for gold, the Fidus manager sees a bullish cycle operating, with an upward outlook in the longer term. His highest bet is on oil prices. The price of $70 per barrel is, he predicts, meaning investors favoring the taking of risks in the futures market could buy oil futures. According to Sawan, the best performing fund at Fidus was the Societé Générale International SICAW Fund. Managed by SoGen asset management, it achieved increases of 42% in 2003 and 6% this year. The broadest consensus the Beirut financial experts share in their outlook on the local market seems to be that tourism related and other productive real estate investments are a definite buy recommendation in Lebanon either through funds or direct project participation, while the equity and securities market at the Beirut Stock Exchange for many is a ‘not yet’ – which is actually better than the essential doubts some traders voiced on the BSE’s role two or three years ago. In this context, one important hopeful sign for greater public sector readiness to support the growth of the BSE is last month’s decision to list two of the eurobonds. Experts hailed the first-time listing of sovereign bonds on the exchange as a move towards making the BSE a more interesting place.

Nonetheless, the trading of securities still may have a ways to go before it can attract all potential issuers of funds on the local market. The Middle East Capital Group, which was a strong driver in listing banks on the BSE in the 90s, today would not in principle reject the idea of listing funds on the BSE. “Why not?” the firm’s new CEO, Walid Mousallam, told EXECUTIVE in his first interview with a Lebanese publication. But for the time being, he is not considering it, as MECG is currently able to structure their funds in the way they want and which makes sense for the firm. “We don’t see the need and we don’t see the benefits,” he said. “It would help the BSE but you don’t do these things unless you see the benefits of doing them. Taking such steps needs more market rationale.”

Controlled optimism

For Bank of Beirut, the sole private sector issuer to list funds on the BSE in the past two years, the rationale exists and has already worked, said Najib Semaan, Bank of Beirut assistant general manager in charge of treasury. “The BSE should be activated for listing more funds, bonds, and securities markets instruments. We have several funds listed on the BSE,” he explained. “In the past, we priced them by ourselves but there is always a bias if you price your own products, even as we always had the net asset value under control of an external auditor. For this reason, we took most of our fixed-income funds to the BSE.”

Lebanese investors hungry to be active participants in financial markets will continue to think and access in international terms. As controlled optimism about the local market potential is an increasing note of consensus among Beirut’s financial experts, local investors may, however, also benefit surprisingly from thinking domestic openings in the coming six to 12 months.

SUCCESS OF FUND RESULTS IN REPLICATIONBank of Beirut is so satisfied with the performance of its funds that it will issue another fund before the end of the year. The bank revealed to Executive that it is in the final stages of preparing the launch of Beirut Income Fund II, which will succeed the dollar-denominated Beirut Income Fund. “This is the first time that we replicate a fund due to success,” said Michel Chikhani, head of the BoB asset management department. After diagnosing a market need for better-managed local investment products, Bank of Beirut started in 1997 to work on developing their asset management and devoted two years of effort to preparing for client activities. When the bank introduced their first Beirut Income Fund in December 2000, initial investor appetite came from some 200 persons. As BoB developed their funds portfolio, which today spans four listed and three unlisted funds, this participation increased over the last four years to over 3,000 investors, 70% of which are resident or expatriate Lebanese.

The funds are based on a range of securities including Lebanese eurobonds and Treasury Bills, Certificate of Deposits, income securities by domestic banks, time deposits and fixed income instruments. Four out of the seven investment funds managed by Bank of Beirut are listed on the BSE, namely the Beirut Lira Fund, Beirut Interbank Fund, Beirut Golden Income Fund, and Beirut Global Income Fund. BoB collaborated with First National Bank in the creation of two of its funds.

According to Chikhani, Bank of Beirut approaches the subject of investment funds under the maxim of working to diminish risk associated with underlying assets while allowing for increased liquidity and securing improved returns for investors. Since most investors are oriented heavily toward the short term, the bank sees no obstacle to its funds business in the fact that current legislation limits funds to five years in duration.

“On average, our dollar and Lebanese Lira denominated funds have outperformed deposit rates by 3% to 4% and outperformed underlying assets by 1.5% to 2% on an annual basis from their launch,” Chikani said.
 

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Interminable terminal

by Executive Contributor September 28, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

The saga concerning the private jet terminal at the Beirut airport continues. The new terminal was supposed to open its doors last June, but until now it has not. β€œWe are facing technical problems with the air conditioning and lighting,” said Samir Fakeh, head of the Civil Aviation Department. β€œThe system does not function as it should.”

Fakeh was not able to indicate the exact nature of the problems, nor was the SNAM contracting company responsible for the overall finishing of the 120,000 square meter terminal, which hosts eight VIP lounges, a 300 square meter shopping area and restaurant. No retail space has been rented out yet.

The building took some two years to construct and forms the backbone of a $33 million investment to better facilitate the growing fleet of private jets flying to Beirut. So far, 13 private jet companies from Europe and the Arab world have handed in requests to rent space at the new facility. Despite the delay, none of them has canceled yet, said Fakeh. Still, he would have liked to tap into the busy summer tourist season. He was unable to give an estimation of possible losses, which may run into hundreds of thousands of dollars.

An indication of possibly the real reason for the delay came in Fakeh’s answer to when the facility might open. β€œMaybe in September,” he said, β€œbut maybe we’ll have to wait for the presidential elections to be over.”

Fakeh did not want to go into further details. It’s no secret, however, that differences in opinion over the second mandate of President Emile Lahoud have paralyzed much in the country. The new VIP facility appears to have fallen into the stagnation trap due to the ambient political rivalries. And like many other sectors, the opportunity costs are swiftly mounting.

Speared by roadwork

From August 3 to 17, the main artery leading to the Murr Tower from Sanayeh and the Hamra district, Spears Street, was closed. As a consequence, many shops were forced to close down temporarily. A leading victim was the Barbar sandwich outlet, which had to close for two weeks, sending home 85 employees and reporting an estimated loss in sales of some $100,000.

β€œFor 23 years Barbar never closed,” said Abed Serwan, the manager of Barbar’s Spears outlet. β€œBut now we did not have a choice.” Serwan complained that for one year there has been work on Spears Street almost every month. Unlike its outlet in Hamra, the Spears outlet depends more on drive-by customers.

Other shops, mainly small groceries and souvenir shops, are estimated to have suffered losses of roughly up to 70% during the period of roadworks. Mustapha Yamout, who runs a tourist pension on Spears, also said that in the past year there have been eight major works and at least 20 minor ones. β€œCouldn’t that have been done in a more efficient way?” he asked.

The works on Spears are part of an overall project to refurbish some 90 streets in Beirut. β€œThe whole infrastructure for sewage, water and electricity needed changing, after which the road needed re-asphalting,” said the engineer in charge of the operation, William Debs, who works for Elie Selwan contracting company.

According to him, β€œpeople always complain,” even though normal procedures were followed in an attempt to reduce discomfort to a minimum. β€œSo, normally we always work on one side of the road, keeping the other side open to traffic.”

But why close Spears Street in the middle of the tourist season? β€œAccording to the traffic police,” Debs said, β€œthere’s less traffic in summer, as schools and many offices are closed. Also, the municipality asked us to work during school holidays.” So are the works finished? β€œWe need to put just one more layer of asphalt next month,” Debs said. β€œBut that’s only one night of work.”

Politics and pension funds

The creation of a viable social security net in Lebanon inched a step forward as the cabinet adopted a plan for a national pension project, under which retirees would receive continuous monthly pension payments and be insured for medical services. If passed into law, the plan would gradually replace the one-time end-of-service indemnity payments scheme managed by the National Social Security Funds (NSSF).

The plan’s provisions stipulate that participants can receive pension payments after a minimum employment of 20 years, during which the retiree and his employer would contribute a total of 12.25% of the retiree’s salary: 5% deducted from the salary and 7.25% payment by the employer, up to a salary ceiling of $3,340. Employers would also be responsible to pay a contribution to their employee’s retirement health insurance, amounting to 5% of the salary without a ceiling.

Participation in the scheme would be mandatory for all new employees entering the job market (more than two-thirds of the Lebanese workforce is younger than 35) and all those currently enrolled in the NSSF who were born after 1969. Working persons born before 1969 may participate on a voluntary basis, on condition they do not withdraw their end-of-service indemnity and will have at least 20 years of insured employment at their retirement.

Pension advisors and insurance actuaries Muhanna group, who drew up the pension project for the Lebanese government, set the minimum monthly pension at $120, based on an employee earning a minimum salary of $200 [CORRECT?] over 20 years of membership in the scheme. If he or she is registered for 40 years, the minimum monthly pension would be $240. [CORRECT?] Under the model, a person starting to contribute at a salary of $600 and average annual salary increases of 3% would reach a pension of $642 after 30 work years, or 44% of his final salary.

Given the political stakes involved in the plan (and it was largely depicted in the local media as a defeat for Speaker Nabih Birri, who has considerable influence over the NSSF), debate over the plan is far from complete and adoption of the plan in parliament is anything but certain. After being passed into law, it would take at least two years to implement the scheme.

When Black isn’t beautiful

After an absence of almost 40 years, Chivas Regal has returned to the Lebanese market. But the whisky that was once the by-word for sophisticated drinking is now having to slug it out with the lesser brands in promotion wars fought in the aisles of Lebanon’s supermarkets.

Sales Manager Isabelle Dahan said Chivas intends to become a major market player within three years. What that effectively means is that it hopes to overtake Johnnie Walker Black Label as the market leader – an ambitious undertaking since Black Label currently controls 70% of the deluxe whiskey market and sells for roughly $2 less. The remaining 30% is currently split between Dewar’s Ancestor’s (15%) and a handful of other brands, such as Dimple’s.

Naji Hammoudeh, business manager for KFF Food & Beverage, which distributes Dewar’s, said he expected Chivas to gain a 20% to 30% share of the deluxe market within two to three years. β€œThe domination of Black Label will be significantly reduced,” he predicted. Black Label distributors Diageo didn’t comment.

Chivas Advertising Director Carla Zoghby refused to reveal the amount of the brand’s advertising budget. Dahan declined to reveal sales since the product’s relaunch at the beginning of August, but she said Chivas was being sold β€œeverywhere,” even in corner shops.

Chivas is being promoted through a widespread billboard campaign, as well as in newspapers, magazines and cinemas. Female promoters have also been positioned at various points-of-sale, armed with brochures. So far, Chivas distributors NEXTY are not offering promotional gifts. But, Dahan conceded, they may.

Zoghby dismissed the suggestion that billboard advertising might damage Chivas’ deluxe brand image. β€œChivas is a legend,” she stated. At the same time, Dahan acknowledged that below-the-line promotion was never good for brand image, but said that in a market in which other players had embraced the practice, Chivas had no choice but to follow suit.

Little progress after Allawi

The recent visit to Lebanon by Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi produced little in the way of progress on three pressing economic issues: the fate of $500 million deposited by the previous Iraqi regime in Lebanese banks (now in the custody of the central bank); alleged losses incurred by Lebanese exporters who say contracts with Iraq, or Iraqi trade pledges, were not honored once the war ended; and the drastic drop in Lebanon-Iraq trade because of security concerns, which were accentuated by the harassment and kidnapping of truck drivers and businessmen, some of them Lebanese.

For example, the Port of Tripoli has registered a 50% drop in Iraq-bound trade, while road transit from Lebanon to Iraq has plummeted by 70%, denting any optimism generated by Lebanon’s $197.1 million cumulative balance of payments surplus for the first five months of 2004.

β€œUp until now, there has been nothing on the economic issues,” said Fadi Abboud, president of the Lebanese Industrialists Association. Although the oil, gas, transport and currency sectors were all discussed, observers said Allawi’s visit was primarily of a political nature, designed to improve diplomatic relations between Syria and Lebanon on the one hand, and Iraq on the other. β€œAs long as the security situation in Iraq remains as it is, nothing will be done with respect to the economic matters discussed during Allawi’s visit,” Abboud added.

β€œI don’t think the issue of the Iraqi deposits will be resolved in the near future,” opined economist Kamal Hamdan. β€œIt will depend on the political situation in Iraq. We may have to wait for elections there, and a legitimization of the political structure.” Hamdan predicted that Lebanese exporters would, eventually, be compensated for actual contracts not honored by Iraq. But he said that Lebanese exporters hoping to be compensated for investments they claim they undertook in response to informal import agreements could be disappointed, in part because of the difficulty in verifying such claims.

Italian furniture, made in Lebanon?

Lebanon has untapped potential to serve Italian furniture makers as a manufacturing base for medium-range lines for the Middle East market. Paying a visit to Lebanon, the president of the Italian federation of wood, cork, furniture and furnishing manufacturers, Roberto Snaidero, told Executive that he is envisioning increased collaboration between members of his association and Lebanese enterprises.

To open more opportunities for Lebanese companies for joint ventures with Italian furniture producers and manufacturers in general, Snaidero organized meetings with industry leaders here and in Italy. β€œAs the president of our association, I now want to go deeply into this matter here in Lebanon,” he said. β€œThis process cannot be resolved in the short term but it is important to begin. I think it is important for us and for Lebanese companies.”

Developing the skill base of engineers and staff in partner firms here would be essential, while large investments would not be a guarantee for success. β€œLebanon is not a big market and some countries around it cannot buy the top class of furniture. We have to move into these countries with medium-range furniture, so we can start with investments in the range of $1.5 million to $2 million,” he said.

He pointed to Snaidero Middle East, a kitchen manufacturing joint venture between the Italian Snaidero Group and local partners (Indevco) as a model for such partnerships. Snaidero Middle East, established in 1995 with an investment of $1.3 million in equipment and training, succeeded in marketing its products in 14 countries of the region and today contributes 5% to 6% to the total turnover of Snaidero Group, according to Maro [OR MAURO?] Matiussi, general manager of Snaidero Middle East. β€œWe estimate to have around 10% market share in Lebanon, which we estimate makes us leaders in Lebanon and in the region as a whole,” he said.

Banking on religion

Islamic banking products continue to rise in market appeal, with international and regional banks working to meet demand. The latest Sharia-compliant financial tool to be made available to Lebanese and Middle Eastern investors is the HSBC Amanah Global Equity Index Fund. Launched last month as the first index tracker fund to invest in the 100 largest Sharia-compliant companies by market capitalization, the fund is a product of HSBC Amanah, the Islamic financial services division of leading global banking group HSBC.

Buyers can participate with a minimum of $5,000 in the fund, which is designed to provide them with long-term appreciation of capital through investment in a portfolio of worldwide listed equities that meet Islamic standards. These standards mandate, among other requirements, that companies under investment not be involved in activities such as gaming and alcohol, which are forbidden under the tenets of Muslim faith.

Demand for Sharia-compliant banking products among customers of HSBC Lebanon has been increasing consistently and amounts to β€œa lot,” confirmed a spokesperson for the bank, who declined, however, to give figures on either the number of private banking clients at the bank’s Lebanon branches or the exact demand for Sharia-compliant products among its customers.

Meanwhile in the local market, Beirut-based Al-Baraka Bank announced that it is opening four new branches. The bank, which operates under Islamic principles, had seen several years of minimal activities in Lebanon until it undertook a restructuring beginning in 2003.

Eating goes upwards

With the number of tourists entering Lebanon reaching an all-time high, business has been booming for Beirut’s retailers and restaurants this summer. CafΓ©s and eateries in the Beirut Central District reported an average increase of some 30% compared to normal year-round sales, and a general increase of 5% to 10% compared to last year. Serge Kirbeh, however, manager of Asia rooftop restaurant, reported a 30% increase compared to the annual average, even though he added that β€œlast year was better.”

Restaurants in other parts of town did well too. George Khoury manager of Amore in Verdun, a traditional hotspot for Arab tourists, reported an increase similar to last year of some 35% compared to spring figures. The management of the Blue Elephant in Raouche estimated July turnover to be up 25% compared to last year, and no less than 200% in August, β€œthanks to an intensive advertisement campaign.”

But it is not just restaurants that are doing well. β€œEvery summer sales are up some 60%,” said Jihad el Murr, managing director of Virgin Megastore, β€œnot just because of Arab tourists, but also because of the Lebanese who return for holidays.” Most retailers in the downtown reported a figure similar to the ones in the restaurant business.

Likewise, most shops and retailers in the Verdun area experienced a 25% to 30% increase in sales, while lingerie, souvenir and clothing shops in Hamra reported an average increase of some 25%. Though Arab tourists did visit the ABC shopping mall in Ashrafieh, it seems it has not yet become their favorite hangout, as most shops reported an increase of no more than 20%. A comparison with last year is not possible, as the mall only opened its doors six months ago.

Closing the St. Georges blinds?

β€œWe can’t keep the blinds open” said Fadi Khoury, chairman of the once magnificent St. Georges Hotel. β€œThey will be able to see me and I can’t risk that.” After more than a decade of fighting, often very publicly, with Solidere and the Beirut municipality, both in the courts and in the press, Khoury initially comes off as determined to press ahead with his vision of reconstructing what was once Beirut’s, and the region’s, star attraction for the rich and famous. β€œI will not sell out, never!” he told Executive.

While the last two scraps have kept up the image of Fadi the fighter, the culmination of so many years of battling has clearly left him fatigued even as he pulls out map after map of what has, for him, been an exhaustive exercise in the complications, contradictions and β€œinjustices” of Beirut’s rebirth.

Khoury acknowledges that the long-running saga on rebuilding the St. Georges has also taken its toll on his personal fortune. Several years ago, the authorities ripped up the hotel’s berths that were bringing him an average of $1.5 million in annual boat docking fees. Shortly thereafter, he had to endure various municipal obstacles to fully operating his beach club – his main source of revenue. Now, he says, β€œMy revenues have been cut to so little. I have virtually no way to make a profit.” A pathway to the oceanfront, a reduced sea wall, his old piers and permission to build are all that he wants, he says. The crusading sound bytes of public space, β€œjust compensation” and β€œanti-monopolistic development” would all stop there – he is, after all, a businessman.

As he adjusts one of his many remote cameras from his desk to close in on what he calls an illegal Solidere office trailer near the St Georges, Khoury adds, softly, almost to himself, β€œI don’t know how long this can continue.”

September 28, 2004 0 comments
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Business

The ongoing love affair

by Peter Speetjens September 1, 2004
written by Peter Speetjens

“A gun is a man’s jewelry.” So says an old Arabic proverb. Traditionally, a father would buy his son a gun when he is born in the same way a girl would receive a pair of gold earrings. In Lebanon, this tradition is all but dead, but the Lebanese still love their guns. In fact, the country is loaded with them. It is estimated that there are over 1 million weapons in private circulation. A significant percentage of them are sporting guns and rifles. Despite a nine-year-old ban on hunting some 30,000 rifles and shotguns – costing between $300 (for a mass produced Turkish 12-bore) to $100,000 for the top of the range Purdeys – are sold in Lebanon every year. There are over a dozen importers and some 50 medium to large distributors operating in a market with a worth of up to $2 million a year. With the right permits, importing and selling hunting weapons is legal. The import of handguns for private – as opposed to government use – is not. This black market is made up of discreet gun collectors, who have the money to pay over the odds for the world’s finest handguns. Then, there are the heavy caliber weapons, both those creaking relics of the civil war (mainly small arms such as the 7.62mm AK47s and M16s and the equally ubiquitous, shoulder-fired RPG launchers, which are coveted by thugs, bodyguards and nostalgics of every stamp) and the new hi-tech hardware destined for private armies and resistance groups, such as Hizbullah. Finally, while Lebanon is not an integral cog in the $30 billion global arms trade, some of its movers and shakers are Lebanese.

The law

Unless you have a permit, it is illegal to carry a non-hunting weapon about your person in Lebanon. This means anything from a Derringer to Stinger. A license can be obtained from the ministry of defense (although one issued by the Syrian ministry of defense gives the owner greater kudos) and, while there is no exact criteria laid down for who can get a permit under what circumstances, an applicant basically has to prove that the weapon is a matter of life and death for himself, his family or his business. Having the right connections can also work miracles.

Politicians often have a permit, as do diamond dealers, money runners, security personnel, bodyguards and, last but certainly not least, undercover law enforcement officers. To own a hunting rifle or shotgun a permit is required from the ministry of interior. To hunt however, requires a second permit, issued annually by the ministry of agriculture, even though hunting has been banned since 1995 after the UN laid down conditions for the donation of millions of dollars to establish a string of nature reserves in the country. Last January however, the law was changed, allowing hunting of certain species at certain times, although this law still has to be ratified. When it is, enforcement will be the responsibility of the ministry of environment.

Gun importers and agents need a permit from the ministry of interior to trade. Both importers and distributors need to satisfy the ministry of defense that they comply with all safety requirements concerning the storage of arms and ammunition, before the permit from the ministry of interior can be issued.

A-hunting we will go

The market for hunting guns is currently worth an estimated $1.5 to $2million. Business boomed just after the war, when peace allowed hunting enthusiasts to resume their old hobby. It was to be a short-lived reunion. The 1995 ban hit the sector hard, causing sales to drop by some 40% to 50% (one importer has sold 16,000 guns since 1993, half of which were sold before 1995).

There are 17 gun importers in Lebanon and some 260 shops selling hunting equipment, although most are quite small, located in the villages, and only offer a handful of guns and cartridges. This leaves around 50 medium to large outlets, which sell a wider range of hunting weapons (although many of these push the definition of “hunting” and would be equally suited to the streets of Fallujah than the mountains of Lebanon) as well as binoculars, camouflage jackets, tents, and boots. Prices of guns vary considerably. A quality shot gun, of say the Italian Beretta or Benelli, costs an average of $400 to $600, while you pay up to $6,000 for the top of the line models. As much as 90% of guns sold in Lebanon fall under the first category.

If you opt for a handmade, bespoke gun, expect to pay between $15,000 to $50,000. The Lebanese agent for Beretta recently sold a $16,000 gun to the Sultan of Bahrain, but this is small change when compared to those made by the British craftsmen of Holland & Holland and Purdey, whose antique models sell at auction for hundreds of thousands of dollars. On a recent trip to Iraq, however, one lucky Lebanese businessman picked up a pair of Holland & Holland rifles, worth around $40,000, for $7,000 from a cash strapped owner.

Handguns

Unlike the US, where a handgun – and even a machine gun – can be bought on nearly every block, the private sale of handguns in Lebanon is illegal. Supply is limited and demand among gun aficionados has pushed-up the price to roughly three times the normal market value. While in the US, an average Colt or Glock will cost you about $600, expect to pay around $2,000 in Lebanon. Silencers and other deeply desirable options – engraving etc. – come at an extra cost.

Lebanese collectors, unlike their counterparts in the Gulf, who like their guns plated with gold or encrusted with diamonds, generally opt for the original or “classic” models in mint condition. A small collection (say between 10 to 15 guns) can be worth as much as $30,000 to $40,000, but some local collectors have rooms with weapons worth nearly $1 million.

In the same way that a watch can be much more than just a timepiece, so too is a gun more than just a weapon to a collector. But like the man who wears a Casio digital, the gun enthusiast who wants a no-frills gun that will never let him down will buy a Browning. Developed originally in Belgium at the turn of the century, it has today become the standard issue for many armies and law enforcement agencies around the world. In Lebanon, a Browning 9mm can cost as little as $100.

Heavier items

During the Civil War, Lebanon was flooded with arms. The USA and Israel supplied the Christian militias. The Libyans, Saudis and other Arabs states armed the Palestinians and their leftist allies; Iraq came to aide of General Aoun, while Iran and Syria supplied Amal and Hizbullah. When the war ended, the Lebanese army impounded much of this huge stockpile, but a significant portion was sold on to other militias, especially in the Balkans, fighting their own civil wars.

Equally large numbers of small arms – M-16s and AK 47s – have been stashed away, part of the national paranoia that one day all hell would again break loose. Many found their way onto the open market. While an M-16 can cost up to $1,000 on the international market, in Lebanon it can be bought for as little as $400. AK47s, at $200, come even cheaper.

After the end of the Cold War, the market was flooded with surplus arms from both sides (it is these small arms – and the hugely unreliable but very spectacular RPGs – that are harassing the coalition forces in Iraq) but the really heavy stuff – tanks and artillery – came from the cash-strapped former communist countries of Eastern Europe. Today, you can buy a former East German tank for $40,000, while an RPG will not cost you more than $1,000. Hizbullah’s mortar and Katusha rocket systems have a price tag of several thousand of dollars.

Recently, a sizeable number of MP5K automatic machine guns have entered the Lebanese market from Iraq. This American-made weapon was used mainly by the Iraqi police and army and used to cost around $6,000 in Lebanon. Today, they can be picked up for $3,000. It is expected that many more weapons from the pre-war regime will flood the market in coming months and years, such are the huge stockpiles of conventional arms amassed by Saddam Hussein.

In any country the biggest spender on arms would normally be the army, and security services, but in Lebanon, most of the post-war budget goes on salaries and maintenance (the army’s 300 tanks are at least 30 years old) and no major investments have been made, although the US did sell the Lebanese government some old helicopters – the ones seen on parades and state visits – for bargain basement prices.

The international arms trade

According to Stockholm International Peace Institute, global military expenditure and arms trade form the largest spending in the world at over $950 billion annually, half of which is bankrolled by the US. By far the largest part is spent on operations, personnel and maintenance. The total value of global arms transfers between 1999 and 2002 was $139.8 billion, some 60% of which was paid by developing countries.

The bulk of the business is composed of highly expensive fighter jets, ships, submarines, tanks and other big items, which are sold mainly by and to governments. The world’s main producers are UN Security Council members, the USA, Russia, Britain, China and France, followed by Israel, South Africa and several smaller European countries. Private arms dealers generally supply the smaller arms, with which most wars are fought – rifles, machine guns, grenades, mortars and RPG launchers. There are an estimated 600 million small arms in circulation around the world, which cause an estimated 500,000 deaths every year.

Arms brokers come in handy when governments intend to sell weapons to clients that are considered too controversial – guerillas, revolutionaries and dictatorial regimes. One of the world’s most famous arms brokers is Lebanese: Sarkis Soghanalian (see box). According to London-based Jane’s Intelligence Review, the unofficial global trade is worth an estimated $2 billion to $10 billion depending on who is fighting whom. Arms dealers never work alone, so it is an open secret that despite the UN embargo, Germany supplied Croatia in the Balkan War, Russia armed Serbia, and Iran and the USA armed Bosnia.

The task of a private arms dealer is not only to guarantee that the weapons arrive and money is paid, but most of all, to ensure that the paper trail concerning the weapons’ origins cannot be traced back to the supplier. The deal is, therefore, executed by a string of shell companies and off-shore banks. Most essential, is that the broker knows how to obtain a so-called “end-user certificate,” which states that the arms will not be sold on to third parties. Bolivia is believed to be a major trade hub on the black market. Switzerland comes in handy on the financial side of deals and has traditionally regarded arms trade as just another business, while London, home to over 300 major dealers among whom several are Lebanese, is the trade capital of the world.

Sarkis Soghanalian

Born in 1939, this 150-kilo Lebanese of Armenian descent made his name and fortune during the Cold War, as the CIA’s main business partner. For two decades he was based in the USA, brokering all kinds of deals that broke official embargos. He started his trade by funneling weapons to Lebanon’s Christian militias, before supplying rebels in Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Argentina. He went on to arm Iraq under the reign of Saddam Hussein. He claims everything he did was with the knowledge of US government officials. He was briefly jailed after the Gulf War and is currently standing trial in absentia in Peru for supplying East German AK47s he had bought from Jordan to the Peruvian government, which eventually ended up in the hands of Columbian rebels.

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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Making the connection

by Thomas Schellen September 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Achievers are keen to benchmark their performance and remain unafraid of comparing their accomplishments to the best. To measure the commercial success of Lebanon’s Internet Service Providers – the companies where speed, competitiveness, technological competence and service quality are crucial not only for their viability but for the entire online economy – with the aim of identifying the best performer on a national level is a task requiring the patience of a hero. ISPs themselves say they don’t know the exact size of either the legal residential or the corporate market and are unable to declare their market shares. Against this background of opacity, it is important to ask where Lebanon stands today in internet access by international and regional standards. But the answers are not pretty. According to consensus among providers, internet penetration of households this year amounts to 80,000 or so legal subscribers and anywhere between 50,000 and 100,000 illegal connections supplied by unlicensed wireless operators. In 2001, the numbers of legal subscribers were actually higher. In terms of adaptation of successful business models and new technologies, ISPs here five years ago were able to point to the Lebanese market’s edge over other countries in the region, which moved slowly and were mostly hesitant to reluctant in opening to the internet, socially as well as technically. “Lebanon was the most advanced country in the area in telecommunications. It is a shame to see where we stand today,” said Bassam Jaber, general manager of ISP Cyberia. The downward trend was spawned by a combination of reasons, from the deterioration of consumer purchasing power to high governmental charges for bandwidth and illegal competition that so far could not be erased. Efforts by the government to introduce lower rates for consumers linking per dial-up phone lines to ISPs and cut off unlicensed operators of cable internet helped but were not enough to turn the tide, Jaber said, even as the Lebanese people are still looking for connections to the internet. But ISPs continue to pay the ministry of telecommunications about $20,000 per month for a standard E1 connection of two Mbps, which elsewhere costs a fraction of that. In his opinion, the ministry is not blocking developments but things are moving just too slowly. This has created a paradoxical and unhealthy situation where Lebanese internet providers are showing only abroad what they are really capable of. “We need to be leaders in Lebanon before we can be leaders outside,” Jaber said. “Today, the situation is the opposite. We are leaders outside.” Simplified, the Cyberia ISP brand operates profitably in Jordan and Saudi Arabia – but scrapes by in Lebanon.

To understand the real abysmal picture of Lebanon’s internet penetration, one need only try ranking it against South Korea, the world’s leading nation in broadband connectivity in 2004. The government in Seoul announced last month that the country had achieved more than 30 million internet users – 30.6 million, to be precise. That’s 68.2 % internet penetration in a country that recently surprised us mostly through its enthusiasm for football. The Korean government offered a breakdown of their national figures into detailed analyses of usage preferences, age structures and form of connectivity. According to its statistics, 95.5% of youth between the ages of six and 19, and even 58.3% of people in their 40s go online regularly. As the Korean government followed through on its decision to support a digital society with participation by all, digital subscriber line and cable modem broadband services were used by over 95% of internet users and the average Korean spent 11.5 hours per week surfing the web, with online shopping, gaming, chatting and information searches being key activities.

Compare that to Lebanon’s most optimistic estimates of 250,000 users and well below 10% internet penetration rate, without broadband links in households and no analytical dissection of usage structures whatsoever put forth by the government. Remember also that commercial internet started within the past ten years in both countries. In 1997, when Korea had a mere one million internet users, penetration rates in Korea and Lebanon were not so incredibly far apart. To name what can be known about the structure of the Lebanese market, it is served by five ISPs, two of which specialized in recent years on providing only corporate services. This provider segmentation settled basically into the current shape in 2002 when two early-hour ISPs, Inconet and Data Management merged into IDM, which claims a strong position in both corporate and dial-up consumer markets (the latter largely on account of providing the internet service to the market segment of Banque Audi internet account holders). Cyberia, also an early entrant to the access game, placed their opening bets on the consumer market where they attempted in 2000 to pioneer the provision of proprietary news and information content but aborted the costly project due to lacking commercial viability. Their strength today lies mainly in the dial-up market. Terranet, the third ISP active in consumer dial-up, came onto the market as towards the end of the 90s and could expand their position quite speedily based on technological advantages. Fiberlink Networks launched initially as a consumer-oriented service under the brand name Lynx but refocused soon on the corporate segment where it reached a strong position, working for a limited period under the identity of PSI, a US-based group with high-flying ambitions. Fiberlink is planning to re-introduce consumer services under the Lynx brand. The provider segment is completed by Sodetel, a company that set out as a management and maintenance firm for a 1960s undersea communications cable linking Beirut to Marseille. The firm, established in equal parts by the Lebanese government and France Telecom, is viewed as a smaller player in the corporate market. The players are familiar with each other and – after terminating an unsustainable price war in 1999 and 2000, during which retail customer numbers soared but ISPs sold access massively below cost – have in recent years moved with remarkable harmony on the dial-up price front. Nonetheless, the commercial ISPs today guard their client counts and market share information with such envy that the possibility of future new position fights appears difficult to exclude. As the providers conceal their numbers and the MOT neither commissions research firms to monitor internet penetration and online demographics nor publishes its own figures on the size and development of registered corporate networks, it is hard to precisely evaluate the evolution of the sector – hard for outside analysts and apparently even for the companies. What all providers do agree on is that business so far has not been easy. “It is always difficult. Even with our strong teams in tech and sales, 2004 hasn’t been easy,” said IDM commercial manager, Zakie Karam. According to Jaber, the dial-up consumer segment is characterized in high fluctuation rates among retail customers who jump from one provider to the other. By maintaining their e-mail accounts with any of the big global providers – yahoo!, hotmail, et al – a large portion of users need a local ISP solely for access services and switch readily between them. As the provision of dial-up services is only marginally profitable per account and economies of scales are unachievable under conditions of high costs and competition from gray operators, the companies for the moment seem content with maintaining this status quo and hardly have reasons to invest much in retail expansion or loyalty building among dial-up customers. “Cyberia is well known, so why advertise today when there is an illegal market,” Jaber argued.

The corporate segment, where client relationships are stable and an account generates from $400 to $500 per month upwards in revenue, has been more attractive to the ISPs and the sector achieved more growth here than in the consumer market, probably as much as 500% over the past five years. In the estimate of Fiberlink general manager Imad Tarabay, the corporate market nonetheless does not contain more than 800 active accounts, equivalent to 8% of the about 10,000 firms registered with the VAT system. Thus the players are plowing on, with moderate efforts in retail marketing, deployment of technologies and broadening of services. One such positive innovation was the launch of a public internet access system with wireless hotspots at Beirut Airport earlier this year. IDM, which won a tender to establish the airport network, experienced smooth sailing of the service and saw usage increases of 50% during the summer travel season. IDM is pressing forward this year with the establishment of hotspots. According to Karam, by the end of the year, 25 such wireless access zones are scheduled to be operational in places such as the coffee house outlets of Starbucks and Tribeca, the Roadster diners, and the Riviera and Mayflower hotels, letting 2004 see the first wave of wireless rollouts in public places. By experiences from the recent past and under existing circumstances, however, the corporate market is the main candidate for creation of meaningful new impulses in breaking the slump of the past few years and deploying new online capacities in Lebanon. Connectivity growth could start with the provision of more powerful corporate intranet services, and if things go as one player envisions, it is starting just about now. This would come through a new company under leadership of Fiberlink’s Tarabay. Called Cedarcom, it is geared to serve business organizations with the need for intranet communications between several locations as well as provide last mile services for ISPs and similar clients. Cedarcom is one of four firms (plus Ogero) licensed by the MOT for operation of legal wireless or cable networks within Lebanon, paying this privilege with an annual fee of $65,000 and the obligation to transfer 20% of revenue to the ministry. The seven-year-old Cedarcom had been acquired by Tarabay and his partners in the spring of 2003 and re-started commercial operations in May of this year. By end of September, the network will reach full coverage of Lebanon’s major population centers, including the Bekaa. Marketing activities are rolling from the beginning of this month, with a launch event at the Termium fair. What makes this firm remarkable is that its commercial launch marks the introduction of an important new technology in the Middle East – namely, the wireless Multi Protocol Labeled Switching (MPLS), which was developed by Cisco Systems. Creation of the network required investments of nearly $5 million, of which 70% was needed to achieve national coverage and will contribute less than 20% to revenue. But although expensive, national coverage is indispensable for Cedarcom’s ability to attract important clients who can budget something like $10,000 per month to interconnect 20 branches to their headquarters. In the existing market, Tarabay sees banks, with their mandatory intranet linkage of all branches, as the main clientele of Cedarcom, which will be able to offer more services for lower fees. While a multi-branch client per location typically pays $500 in Beirut to $700 outside of the metro area for a 64 Kbps capacity, Cedarcom rushes in with 512 Kbps lines at a charge starting slightly above $400. With this much power to offer, the company swept all contracts it bid for during the past three months, Tarabay claimed, even if competitors positioned their bids below their usual rates. But the existing market is not the real potential. At an estimated 1,500 client units (almost 900 of them bank branches), Tarabay estimates this corporate intranet business to be worth “$7 million or $8 million, not more.” This market could grow fourfold in size over the coming two years, he believes, if the government finally takes the two steps of establishing the Telecoms Regulatory Authority and lowering the connectivity charges. Costs of bandwidth for companies could be cut in half under those conditions, opening the market to a large number of midsized multi-office businesses. After many political delays, Tarabay sees the issuance of the laws and decrees that will make the 2002 telecommunications law fully applicable happening in the near future, probably after the presidential elections. After that, things would really take off. “We over dimensioned our network, because we will start feeling the growth,” he said.

Such a development of the corporate market is meaningful, because it could finally spell the beginning of affordable broadband provision to private homes, by which growth of data network and internet penetration in Lebanon would evolve hand in hand, enabling the country to eventually catch up and close the internet gap between, at least, other Middle Eastern countries. The providers, although few in number, certainly seem ready, eager and willing for a second birth of Lebanon’s digital society. The old vigor of the sector’s days as regional pioneers and service innovators has not vanished, it only rests beneath the tired faces of the small provider community, Jaber said. “When we started we did not have the same problems as we have today. But we still have the same spirit that we had then.”

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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Q&A: Saad Al Barrak

by Thomas Schellen September 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

The operators of the currently government-controlled Lebanese mobile phone networks are officially called MIC 1 and MIC 2, for Mobile Interim Company. MIC 2 is the Mobile Telecommunications Company (MTC) Group, the rapidly growing Kuwait-based Arab telecommunications firm with operations across the Middle East. EXECUTIVE talked to MTC general manager, Saad Al Barrak, on their management of the Libancell network and on how long MTC would like to play an “interim” role.


At this early stage, how are things going with the management of the Libancell network?

Everything is going all right. We have significant achievements and although we have just started, we have the operation totally under control, with increases in subscribers, revenue, everything – which is extremely encouraging.

How many employees do you have at this point?

Today, we have 305 and I think this is the level we are going to stay at. That is more than enough to handle the entire operation.

How many new people did you have to hire?

[Of previous staff] 140 stayed and we hired 160. This is a massive change and not easy. Doing it quickly and letting people pass through orientation and training and at the same time operate as normal and even better, with improvements on productivity, was a good achievement.

Were there any glitches in the takeover phase?

Yes, the glitch was mainly on the prepaid service. It is an old technology that is susceptible to attacks. We had two major virus attacks that brought the network down and caused us some problems, including interruption of service. However, this is a heritage of the past that we have to deal with. We have already made an agreement with the government to change to a newer technology platform.

And the government will finance this?

Definitely, the government finances all the capital expenditure. This is well under way and we hope that things will soon be much more robust and reliable. In the meantime we are enhancing and protecting the current installation, in order to overcome the period until the new technology is in place.

Are you foreseeing changes in the service portfolio, dropping or adding specific services?

We have to revamp a lot of the products. This is also subject to the government’s approval, especially with new packaging and pricing. We have many ideas in that regard, which should promote the overall wellbeing of the network and the services.

How is your relationship with the government at this point?

It is excellent. I think the ministry of telecommunications, presented by the minister and his assistants are all extremely helpful and fully understanding.

Is it correct that you will not only make changes in technology and services but also in identity and marketing?

Right. Libancell belongs to the old company. We can use it only to a maximum of six months. During this time, we are agreeing on a new name and a new brand with the government. They have to endorse it because they own the company.

Did you already present a proposal?

We have been engaged in presentations and discussions for the last month, and we are arriving at the conclusion of this stage.

But the operating company will be MTC?

It will be MTC Liban. It is a separate company and a subsidiary of MTC, registered as a Lebanese company.

Does it have any Lebanese shareholders?

No, not at all. It is 100% owned by MTC.

And management of the company and network will be handled from Beirut?

Totally from Beirut, yes. We sent a management team here, which is in place. They are operating as an independent team here and supported by the group.

Will there be any synergies from your presence in other countries across the region?

Yes, of course, that’s the beauty of contracting with a group and not an individual company. All the goodies of the group will be earned at a very low cost here.

Can you give examples for synergies?

They exist in terms of promotion, branding, training, availability of resources, funding, product development, technology development, also collective bargaining with suppliers, which will give the government much better prices for their cap[ital] ex[penditure] investment.

MTC entered management bids for both networks and was the second to achieve a contract. Did you get an equivalent deal by being awarded management of the Libancell network?

I don’t think that there is better or worse in this case. These are two companies that have been operating at similar size. Cellis definitely had better technology. We knew this and that’s why our price to manage Cellis was higher than our price to manage Libancell. Libancell’s technologies are also closer to our technologies. Our knowledge and expertise in Libancell was greater than in Cellis; that was the main differentiator.

Are you having plans for the presence of MTC in the Lebanese market beyond the management function at the network?

Our plan is wherever we go to own equity as well as manage. We will definitely be working on an ownership plan, along with everybody else who will present proposals to the government. We hope to be more convincing than others, with more benefits, and that’s the challenge to us.

Would you see a step into ownership already possible during the management period or only afterwards?

There is a clear decision and strategic direction of the Lebanese government on privatization of the telecoms sector. The management contract has been widely publicized and taken as an interim period until we arrive at full privatization. So everybody agrees that there must be full privatization. The speed and the approach are where the differences are. Once these things are resolved, it is definitely better to transform the stake of the state. There is much more advantage to it in selling its stake. I think they will take that step sooner rather than later.

Your bid for the management contract was substantially below what the government paid previously and also below expectations. What gave you the confidence to be able to make a profit at this level?

Number one, we are a highly experienced company. We have the economy of scales, so our cost structure will be lower than others who would only handle Libancell on its own. These are two major factors. We have been very aggressive. The Arab world market is the prime market for the MTC Group. We want to be recognized by countries that we can come, manage their strategic assets in telecommunications business and do very well so that will extend the goodwill and, hopefully, move to the full privatization stage. This was our objective and we are extremely happy about developments so far and don’t regret it.

To what degree of market penetration do you foresee growth of the mobile market in Lebanon?

I think Lebanon should have a minimum of 40% penetration in three to four years time, given the liberalization of the market that we are free to expand as much as we can.

This means you first need a numbering plan?

Definitely. A numbering plan is being discussed now and will be amended hopefully by the end of the year, which will give everybody a big range of numbers. Lebanon has already passed the telecommunications law, which is a very good and advanced law. They need to enact this law by setting up an independent regulator, the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority. That should be very helpful in instigating development and furthering the growth of the telecommunications industry in Lebanon.

You would not disagree if I say that telecommunications is too expensive now?

It is very expensive in Lebanon and we hope to contribute to making it much more cost effective with a lot more variety and much better service for the client.

But at this point you cannot give a target number for per minute rates and such?

I cannot. If I fully owned Libancell, I would give you a plan with dates and commitments and numbers, but since the decision is lying with the state and we know the complications of the political side of the story, then definitely I cannot make any comments.

People in the industry claim that authorities were already twice close to signing the enactment laws but didn’t because of political personality problems. Would that deter you in any way?

I think it is deterring the whole country. We hope that with the new elections on presidential and parliamentary levels within a year from this time, things will be much better, like all the Lebanese hope for a much better political environment, not to hinder the development of the country.

But are you confident that in any case, Lebanon will remain stable?

That, I have no doubt about. Lebanon is volatile and highly moving, but it is stable.

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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EconomicsΒ &Β Policy

Banking on the good times

by Tony Hchaime September 1, 2004
written by Tony Hchaime

The banking sector in Lebanon continued to witness sustained growth throughout the first half of 2004, continuing the trend adopted in 2003, which followed a short lull. Total banking sector assets grew by more than 11.8% year-on-year, reaching LL94,377 billion as of June 30, 2004. Main growth was driven by growth in deposits, with bank deposits standing at LL64,639 billion at the end of June 2004, up 11.7% from the same period last year, and 4.7% from year-end 2003.

Despite the considerable growth in assets and deposits, the loan portfolio of the Lebanese banking sector did not undergo significant growth. Total loans to the private sector (both commercial and non-commercial loans) grew by only 1.2% between June 2003 and June 2004, reaching LL23,019 billion. At first glance, a somewhat promising development is revealed in the shrinkage of lending to the government by over 6% between June 2003 and June 2004. A close inspection reveals, however, that the drop in lending to the government occurred during the second half of 2003, as banks’ portfolio of government Eurobonds, T-Bills, and other securities increased by 10%, reaching just over LL23,000 billion.

With such a modest growth in lending, banks in Lebanon managed to significantly improve their cash positions over this period. Total cash and reserve accounts in the Lebanese banking sector grew by a staggering 44.8% between June 2003 and June 2004, reaching over LL60,000 billion. The major jump in cash levels occurred during the second half of 2003, where cash and reserve accounts grew by over 36%, while adding another 6.1% during the first half of 2004.

Alpha Group of Banks

The Alpha Group of Lebanese banks, those with deposits exceeding $1 billion, far exceeded the broader sector in its performance during the first half of 2004. Total asset growth of the Alpha Group reached 17.4% year-on-year, and 6.4% during the first six months of 2004, to reach a total of LL70,969 billion. Customer deposits leaped almost 18% year-on-year and almost 6.8% since the beginning of the year to reach LL59,477 billion by the end of June 2004.

On the other hand, however, the growth in the group’s loan portfolio failed to match the growth in assets and deposits, as total loans added only 3.6% year-on-year and 3.7% since January 2004 to reach LL12,654 by the end of June of this year.

From an earnings perspective, the group’s overall performance, notwithstanding that of some of the leading banks, was somewhat subdued. Net income for the group inched up less than 1.6% year-on-year by June of 2004, reaching LL290 billion. Net interest received by the Group – prior to provisions – remained almost flat year-on-year, adding less than 0.2%. Significantly lower provisions during the first half of 2004, however, lifted the year-on-year growth of net interest received after provisions to 5.3%. The group also benefited from a year-on-year growth in net financial income by 5.8%, while overall operating expenses jumped more than 9.4% over the same period.

Banque Audi-Saradar

As the highly publicized merger of Banque Audi and Banque Saradar was concluded during the first half of 2004, the newly named Banque Audi Saradar published its first consolidated set of financial statements for the first half of 2004. Banque Audi’s unconsolidated total assets grew by a staggering 28% between June 2003 and June 2004, reaching LL11,727 billion, excluding those of Banque Saradar. Post-merger total assets exceeded LL14,704 billion by the end of June 2004, making the bank Lebanon’s largest, with more than 15.5% of total banking sector assets in the country.

On a stand-alone basis, Banque Audi continued to impress the market, yet again beating its historical half-year performances, as well as that of its peers. Banque Audi’s customer deposits jumped by almost 31% year-on-year by June 2004, reaching LL10,035 billion, or around 15% of total deposits in the Lebanese banking sector. The post-merger balance sheet reveals total customer deposits at Banque Audi-Saradar reaching in excess of LL12,365 billion, bringing the largest bank’s market share of customer deposits to more than 19%. The bank’s loan portfolio jumped by more than 57% between June 2003 and June 2004, partially due to Banque Saradar’s loan portfolio. Total loans held on Banque Audi Saradar’s balance sheet reached LL3,104 billion by the end of June 2004. The majority of the loan portfolio remains in the form of commercial loans, which account for almost 70% of total loans. The newly merged bank’s balance sheet reveals a hefty increase in liquidity levels. Cash held at the Central Bank as well as the bank itself jumped from 26% of total assets in June of 2003, to 33% in June of 2004, more than doubling in value and reaching LL4,805 billion. In parallel, deposits at other banks and financial institutions grew by 132% year-on-year, mainly due to the acquisition of Banque Saradar. Such deposits currently account for 20% of total assets at LL2,902 billion, compared to just 14% in June of 2003. Alternatively, investments in Lebanese government bills dropped from 28% of total assets in June of 2003, to just 18% in June of 2004, growing by just 1% year-on-year, reaching LL2,604 billion. Banque Audi also continues to impress in its income side, with the bank’s net income, excluding that of Banque Saradar, growing by 7.4% year-on-year to LL42.73 billion during the first half of 2004. Due to the difference in scale between Banque Audi and Banque Saradar, the additional profits from the acquisition do not reflect greatly on the combined bank’s income statement, with total consolidated profits for the first half of the year still at LL42.73 billion.

Net interest income grew by more than 35% between June 2003 and June 2004, with the majority of the growth coming from Banque Audi’s performance on a stand-alone basis. Net interest received after provisions totaled LL98.43 billion during the first half of 2004, compared to LL72.60 billion for the corresponding period in 2003.

Staff and operating charges also grew considerably, mainly due to the acquisition of Banque Saradar. Total staff and operating expenses increased by more than 37% year-on-year between June 2003 and June 2004, reaching LL98.33 billion.

BLOM Bank

After getting bumped off the top of the list of largest banks in Lebanon, BLOM Bank is not sitting idle, undertaking aggressive growth measures to regain its trademark position. The bank’s total assets grew by almost 22% year-on-year between June 2003 and June 2004, reaching LL14,490 billion. Customer deposits continue to grow, adding almost 19% between June 2003 and June 2004 to reach LL12,591 billion. The bank’s loan portfolio continues to account for around 13% of total assets. BLOM’s total loan grew by just under 7% between June 2003 and June 2004, reaching LL1,881 billion, with commercial loans again account for the vast majority of outstanding loans. Investments in government bills were reduced substantially during the first half of 2003, with all of such investments accounting for less than 24% of total assets by June 2004, from almost 30.5% in June of 2003. Total such investments dropped by almost 5% year-on-year to reach LL3,462 billion by the end of June 2004.

The higher deposits, modest growth in loans and reduction in investments in government bills ultimately resulted in increased liquidity levels at the bank, which saw its cash and reserves accounts grow by almost 48% between June 2003 and June 2004. Cash and reserve accounts reached 31% of total assets during the first half of 2004, at LL4,458 billion, from 25% of total assets during the corresponding period of 2004.

As the now second largest bank in Lebanon, BLOM Bank also registered impressive income growth between June 2003 and June 2004, with net income adding 6.1% to reach LL68.48 billion, ensuring that BLOM still holds the lead in terms of profits.

Interest income remains the main contributor the bank’s income statement, with net income received after provisions reaching LL110.53 billion during the first half of 2004, compared to LL103.31 billion during the corresponding period of 2003. This represents a healthy year-on-year growth of almost 7%.

The bank’s expense structure took a modest hit during that period, which was not unusual given the bank’s aggressive growth. Total staff and operating expenses increased by 7.6% between June 2003 and June 2004, reaching LL57.86 billion.

Byblos Bank

While the market’s focus was primarily on the battle for the position of “largest bank in Lebanon” between BLOM Bank and Banque Audi Saradar, Byblos Bank saw the opportunity to make some serious inroads in growth and market share. Byblos Bank’s total assets grew by 12.7% between June 2003 and June 2004, reaching LL9,677 billion. Customer deposits recorded a staggering growth of almost 14% over the period, reaching LL7,966 billion. On the other hand, the bank’s loan portfolio did not register any significant growth, remaining almost flat at LL1,846 billion.

Investment in government and related bills also dropped at Byblos Bank. The totality of such investments accounted for 23% of total assets at the end of June 2004, compared to almost 34% during the same period in 2003. The bank’s portfolio of such investment shrank by more than 22%, reaching LL2,248 billion at the end of June 2004.

Such growth in deposits, stable loans portfolio and reduced investments in government bills resulted in an overall improvement in the bank’s liquidity positions, with cash levels increasing by more than 53% to reach LL3,415 billion.

Along with the impressive balance sheet growth observed on Byblos Bank’s statements during the first half of the 2004, the bank managed to translate some of this growth into additional income. The bank’s net income grew by just over 1.3% during the first half of 2004, compared to the first half of 2003, reaching LL37.7 billion. Net interest received after provisions, however, receded by almost 10% over the period, reaching LL79.0 billion, despite an aggressive reduction in provisions, which dropped from LL9.35 billion during the first half of 2003 to LL3.76 billion during the first half of 2004.

Bank of Beirut

Bank of Beirut was another strong performer during the first six months of 2004, albeit to a lesser extent than the Alpha Group as a whole. Total asset growth reached 10.4% year-on-year and 2.45% since January to LL5,630 billion, pushing the bank up one notch to the 5th largest in Lebanon. Customer deposits added 9.5% year-on-year and 1.4% for the first six months of 2004 to reach LL3,864 billion. Just as with the overall banking sector, Bank of Beirut’s loan portfolio saw only modest growth during the first 6 months of 2004, with total loans standing 1.8% above June 2003 levels, growing by 2.9% during the first 6 months of 2004, to reach LL963 billion.

Bank of Beirut was one of the new top banks in Lebanon to increase its investments in government bills during the first half of 2004, with total such investments reaching 38% of total assets, at LL2,127 billion, thus registering a year-on-year growth of almost 3%.

Nevertheless, the bank managed to further improve liquidity levels by boosting cash reserves. Cash and central bank accounts jumped by over 25% between June 2003 and June 2004, reaching LL1,369 billion.

After having outperformed its peers on earnings during the second half of 2003, Bank of Beirut fell behind during the first half of 2004. The bank’s net income grew by only 3.95% since the beginning of the year, reaching LL15,886 million. Nevertheless, better management allowed the bank to improve its net interest margin before provisions, growing it by more than 39.9% since January of 2004. The growth was somewhat offset by higher expenses, however, which grew by almost 38% over the same period, largely because the bank has hired more staff.

Banque Libano-Francaise

Banque Libano-Francaise (BLF) was one of the poorest performers among its peers during the first half of 2004. Overall asset growth reached only 1.4% year-on-year and 0.9% since the end of 2003, reaching LL5,478 billion. As a result, the bank lost its 4th place on the list of largest banks in Lebanon, sinking to 6th. BLF’s customer deposit base managed to inch up 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% during the first six months of 2004, reaching LL4,765 billion by the end of June 2004. In tandem with the trend, however, the bank’s loan portfolio remained practically unchanged year-on-year, and inched up 0.5% since the end of 2003, to reach LL1,694 billion by the end of June. BLF was one of the few banks among the Alpha Group to suffer a drastic drop in net earnings during the first six months of 2004. The bank’s net income during the first six months of 2004 sank by almost 23%, reaching LL10,995 million. While the bank’s net interest margin actually improved slightly over the period, the drop in net earnings was mainly due to a 22% shrinkage in non-interest income. Total expenses were kept in check, however, growing by just over 1.5% since the end of the year.

BBAC

BBAC’s performance during the first half of 2004 was more or less in line with its peers, even though the bank fell behind in overall balance sheet growth. BBAC’s total asset base widened by 8.2% year-on-year and remained practically flat since the end of 2003, reaching LL3,207 billion by the end of June 2004. Total customer deposits grew by 7.5% year-on-year as of June 2004, and 2.4% during the first six months of the year, to reach LL2,863 billion. Alternatively, BBAC was one of a few banks to expand its loan portfolio during this period, with total loans growing by 3.6% year-on-year and 7% during the first six months of 2004, to reach LL535 billion by the end of June 2004.

On the earnings side, while BBAC’s net income for the first half of 2004 stood only 1.4% above the levels recorded during the first half of 2003, the bank’s bottom line shot up more than 100% above that of the second half of 2003, reaching LL15,083 million. Better credit management allowed the bank to benefit from a 31.3% rise in net interest margin after provisions, compared to levels observed during the second half of 2003. In addition, net financial income jumped up 23.4% since the beginning of the year, coupled with a 7.5% drop in overall operating expenses.

BLC Bank

After undergoing massive restructuring following the bank’s takeover by the central bank, BLC Bank prides itself as being of the best comeback stories in recent history of the banking industry in Lebanon. The bank managed to vastly outperform its peers during the first half of 2004, with growth in total assets reaching 27.9% year-on-year and 12.6% for the 6-month period, reaching LL2,562 billion, and resulting in the bank taking over the 11th position in the list of largest banks in Lebanon. Customer deposits leaped 29.2% year-on-year and 15.3% since the end of the year, to reach LL2,152 billion by the end of June 2004. In terms of earnings performance, BLC Bank’s net income jumped 122.1% year-on-year and a staggering 218% during the first six months of 2004, peaking at LL13,235 million. An improved net interest margin and better credit management allowed the bank to raise its net interest margin after provisions by 17.7% year-on-year and 5.8% during the first six months of 2004. In parallel, the bank’s financial income shot up 13.6% during the first six months of 2004. Such developments, coupled with an almost 12% drop in operating expenses during the first half of 2004, contributed to the bank’s impressive bottom line growth.

Credit Libanais

While Credit Libanais failed to match the performance of the Alpha Group in terms of earnings during the first 6 months of 2004, the bank managed to tag along on growth side. Total assets shot up 14.1% year-on-year and 5.5% during the first half of 2004, reaching LL4,281 billion. Customer deposits jumped 12.1% since June of 2003, and 6.1% since the end of the year, to reach LL3,651 billion. Little growth was spotted in the bank’s loan portfolio, which remained almost flat year-on-year, adding 2.4% during the first six months, to reach LL776 billion.

Credit Libanais’s net income as of June 2004 stood 4.4% below the June 2003 level, but 5.4% above that of the second half of 2003, reaching LL16,262 million. Lower provisioning allowed the bank to slightly improve its net interest margin after provisions, which climbed 3.7% during the first 6 months of 2004. A modest growth in financial income during the half of the year, in the order of 2.5%, coupled with a 2.7% drop in general operating expenses, allowed the bank to slightly improve its bottom line during the period.

Fransabank

After putting in an impressive performance during the second half of 2003, Fransabank somewhat lost steam during the first half of the year. Total asset growth reaching 16.8% year-on-year, but just 1.8% since January, with total assets reaching LL6,275 billion, advancing the bank to 4th place on the list of largest banks in Lebanon. In parallel, customer deposits as of June 2004 stood 19.0% above previous year levels, but practically unchanged since the end of the year, reaching LL5,047 billion. Surprisingly, however, the bank’s loan portfolio witnessed a significant shrinkage, of 11.2% year-on-year and 3.9% during the first six months of 2004, reaching LL848 billion.

On the earnings side, Fransabank’s performance was somewhat mixed. The bank’s net income for the first six months of 2004, while standing more than 17% below that of the first half of 2003, improved by over 20% compared to the second half of the year. The bank’s net income as of June 2004 reached LL38,988 million. The bank’s net interest margin suffered a blow during the first six months of 2004, dropping by 14.6% since the beginning of the year, due to the combined effect of higher provisions and narrower interest margin. The deterioration in interest margin was offset, however, by an 11.3% improvement in financial income during the first six months of 2004, which contributed positively to the bottom line, despite the almost 10% rise in operating expenses.

Intercontinental Bank of Lebanon

Although not one of the highly publicized banks in Lebanon, Intercontinental Bank of Lebanon put in some incredible growth during the first half of 2004, albeit at a serious expense to profitability. The bank’s total assets leaped more than 32.3% year-on-year and 10.5% for the first half of the year to reach LL1,654 billion, as customer deposits shot up 39.4% year-on-year and 14.4% since the end of the year, peaking at LL1,560 billion. As a result, however, the bank did manage to gain one notch to 12th position on the list of largest banks in Lebanon. The bank’s loan portfolio grew by 8.2% year-on-year, but hardly increased compared to end-of-year levels, leveling off at LL236 billion.

Such growth came at the hard expenses of profitability, however, as the bank’s net income dropped 25.3% year-on-year and 23.8% during the first six months of 2004, leveling off at LL5,108 million. The bank suffered a drop in net interest margin after provisions of 14.1% during the first six months of 2004, which, along with a 12% drop in financial income and an 8.2% rise in operating expenses, ultimately contributed to the reduction in the bottom line.

Lebanese Canadian Bank

Lebanese Canadian Bank was undoubtedly one of the leading performers of the Alpha Group of banks during the first six months of 2004, registering strong growth across the board. The bank’s total assets leaped 38.5% year-on-year and 15.6% year-to-June 2004, reaching LL3,011 billion, pushing the bank to 10th place on the list of largest banks in Lebanon. Customer deposits increased by 37.9% year-on-year and 18.4% since the end of 2003, peaking at LL2,653 billion. The bank’s loan portfolio almost grew, adding 16.3% year-on-year and 5.5% during the first 6 months of 2004, reaching LL383 billion. In parallel, the bank’s net profits leaped 53.3% year-on-year and 39.3% compared to the second half of 2004, reaching LL14,101 million. The bank saw improvements across the board, with net interest margin after provisions improving by 52.5%, and net financial income by 29.9%, vastly offsetting the 21.4% rise in operating expenses.

Societe Generale de Banque au Liban (SGBL)

SGBL’s performance during the first half of 2004 was more or less in line with the bank’s historically modest growth trends. Total assets grew by 4.6% year-on-year and 2.4% since the end of 2003, reaching LL3,893 billion, while customer deposits grew by 18.0% year-on-year and 5.6% during the first six months of 2004, to reach LL3,121 billion. Growth in the bank’s loan portfolio was more modest, settling at 3.1% year-on-year and 2.6% year-to-June 2004, leveling off at LL1,237 billion.

NB The policies of Banque Méditerranée regarding the publishing of data precludes their inclusion in this report.

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

The growing pains of ICT

by Thomas Schellen September 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

It sure looks as if in the world and region, all things ICT are returning to normal. Shares in e-companies are no longer an anathema. The big market move of the season from a tech perspective, the Google IPO, clawed its way beyond obstacles to achieve figures that appear, all in all, more respectable than some headlines suggested. Earnings at multinational corporations from Cisco Systems to Dell look good – so good that a 5% quarterly drop in performance of Hewlett Packard’s enterprise server and storage division led the company last month to immediately sack three top executives, even as HP’s overall profits were up 9% for the quarter. The big names are also hiring. IBM announced in August that it has 18,000 new jobs on offer to bring its worldwide headcount to 330,000 at the end of 2004 and Microsoft said they would hire 6,000 to 7,000 persons during the coming 12 months on top of their current staffing of 57,000. The latest news from the ICT employment market in Germany, Europe’s strongest economy, is that salaries for information and communications technology specialists have accomplished a full rebound to sector income levels of early 2001. Across the MENA region, ICT growth also is again in focus. From PC and software sales to continued surging numbers of mobile phone subscribers, market watchers make enthusiastic projections and global ICT companies court Arab markets for their promising potential, even as these markets are marginal in their annual reports. With many signs to the unmitigated importance of ICT for regional economies and new good days for people in the sector, it appears paramount for a country like Lebanon to do its utmost in preparing the best possible environment for ICT companies to thrive here. International and local experts and executives for firms of all sizes and specializations in the Lebanese ICT community agree not only (despite their differences on many other things) that the country still has a good shot at being an ICT location, but are also in total unison on where crucial changes are needed first. “ICT in the Arab world is a high priority and opportunity for economic development and inclusion in the digital information age,” Microsoft’s regional manager, Charbel Fakhoury, told EXECUTIVE, and enthused, “Lebanon’s ICT potential is still to be fully realized and we are witnessing a strong momentum and support from executive leadership to expedite Lebanon’s realization of the ICT opportunity.” The right size for the Lebanese ICT industry’s production would be around $2 billion, or 10% contribution to GDP, suggested economist Louis Hobeika to EXECUTIVE, and underscored how the country has come a long way in ICT development but has lost ground within the region. “In absolute terms we are perhaps moving forward, but in relative terms we are falling behind,” he said. “One of the obstacles for companies to locate in Lebanon are the high costs in the telecommunications sector, which are three times higher than in the UAE. Our ICT sector today is of average value and average performance.” In Hobeika’s view, Lebanon has several models in the Arab world to look to as examples of who is getting things right: Dubai already, and soon probably also Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. For Lebanon to gain a new edge in ICT, experts and industry members agree that one urgently required improvement is the establishment of special technology parks. Co-locating numerous companies from one industry in shared environments has proven to lead to interconnections and mutually supporting industrial clusters, enabling stakeholders to advance together and become fit for international competition. Clustering boosts efficiency. Due to ICT companies’ pronounced needs for communications technology and highly trained staff, dedicated tech industry zones, as shown by multiple studies and practical examples, are especially helpful to ICT firms for optimization of their development potential.

The ICT community in Lebanon recognized these potentials earlier than their colleagues and public officials in many other Middle Eastern countries and entrepreneurs started drafting plans for ICT parks as far back as 1997. However, up until today, no large-scale plan has been implemented here. By contrast, tech zones in the UAE, Jordan and Egypt were designed after the first such Lebanese projects – and implemented years ago. Thankfully, however, Lebanon has one ICT technology park, which is demonstrating, albeit at a smaller size, how such an endeavor can be just as successful here as in the industry’s more conspicuous international locations.

The Berytech technological pole incorporates three essentials of a cluster for a growing ICT sector: hosting services, communication facilities, and an incubator where startup businesses can take their first corporate steps. The pole, a $4.5 million project established under strong involvement of Universite Saint Joseph (USJ), opened its doors in November 2002 on a site adjacent to the USJ Mar Roukos campus overlooking Beirut. Not even in its third year, Berytech is already home to some 40 enterprises and is currently researching where it can build additional facilities. “Our plan is to expand every year by 15 to 20 companies between startup and hosted companies,” Berytech president Maroun Chammas told EXECUTIVE. This growth target foresees significant incremental increases in the size of the facility, and the master plan calls for building each year 3,000 to 4,000 square meters in facilities until 50,000 square meters are added to its current 8,000 square meters in built-up area. As this expansion cannot be undertaken on Berytech’s current 3,000 square meter plot, the institution is trying to get land nearby on properties owned by a monastic order or, alternatively, seek buildings in Beirut. The latter option would also suit some resident companies, who told the Berytech management that they would like to be closer to the city, but the business incubator for startup enterprises would in any case remain at the Mar Roukos location. According to Chammas, thus far, all companies located at Berytech have been successful in their business ventures. The pole is open to companies from seven sectors, with information technology and multimedia/communications most developed in their presence. Although the shareholder base of Berytech consists of the USJ, 10 banks and seven industrial enterprises, it is one of the challenges for startups at the pole to acquire financing. “The fact that people are at Berytech makes access easier but Lebanese banks have not developed the business of lending to startups,” Chammas said, “it is one of our responsibilities to ensure that the incubator inspires banks with confidence.”

Startup entrepreneurs receive special support in the pole’s business incubator for a limited period of time. Hosted companies pay charges of $13/m2 per month in rent and $15 per month and computer terminal in connectivity fees. Although these charges may appear substantial by local standards, they have a great advantage in being fully transparent and calculable, said Ralph Bitar, manager of Soft Mind, a developer of corporate software solutions. “Here, a flat fee covers everything. Costs are not higher than in other buildings but benefits are much larger,” he said, and after trying out several locations in Beirut, his firm had found locating at Berytech a great improvement. Habib Maaz, CEO of another software firm, Unilog, concurred, saying his firm had been at Berytech since January 2003, and it had proven a good choice and location, which also impressed foreign visitors.

With Berytech’s good reception in the market, Chammas said he saw potential for having many more poles of its type all throughout the country. “I believe there is room for expansion everywhere in Lebanon.”

Enter the Beirut Emerging Technology Zone. With a projected size based on a one million square meter site, the BETZ project is of a different dimension to Berytech and incorporates a scale that would make it perform in the same league as the Dubai Internet City, the Middle East’s showcase ICT zone. But whenever the BETZ topic comes to discussion these days, opinions among the Lebanese ICT community are divided. Initially put on the table in 1997 through a grant for a feasibility study by USAID, the BETZ concept actually dates back to the bubble days of the new economy. This in itself would not be a problem as the need for a substantial ICT industry zone is as great now as it was then. The problem arises from the project’s enormously sluggish evolution. For the first few years after the proposal’s creation, the BETZ feasibility grants were stuck in various government drawers, with government experts in favor of the project having to produce contrived explanations every time they were asked why the study was experiencing yet another delay in implementation. When the study finally came to see execution around 2002, it was carried out by an American consulting company – somewhat understandably, knowing that US funding in international assistance likes to work that way. Less clear was perhaps, why research for something called BEIRUT Emerging Technology Zone would spend much time evaluating sites in far corners of the nation. As several communities were examined, ICT and development enthusiasts in some of them invested themselves considerably to present their community as location of choice for the project. Relief should have set in when in spring of 2003, IDAL chairman Samih Barbir could make a jubilant announcement that BETZ would be built in Damour in a partnership between IDAL and the municipality. For many in the ICT community, this announcement came so late that they were inclined to question the government’s intentions and validity of the project in numerous respects or were simply in disbelief that BETZ could now be put on the promised fast track of construction and welcome its first tenants by autumn 2006. As if to prove them right, the municipal elections followed and with them a change of elected officials in Damour. Since then, the situation of the project has been obfuscated by disagreements and lagging negotiations, the latest results of which apparently were that the municipality no longer wants to be a partner in owning the project but merely wants to lease the land to BETZ and receive annual rent to the tune of $4 million. Rumours circulating about the municipality’s position moreover talk of local fears to see inflows of outsiders and a tossup of the town’s sectarian balance, instead of welcoming the project’s manifold opportunities for developing the community. For supporters of growth in the Lebanese ICT industry, this is worrying news, because they are convinced that missing out on BETZ now would mean missing out on a crucial chance.

“Microsoft has been a strong supporter of BETZ,” Fakhoury confirmed to EXECUTIVE, describing the zone as “a milestone ICT project that will show Lebanon’s commitment to encourage ICT.” His company was dedicated to continue discussions with stakeholders on how local and multinational IT companies would be able to contribute and benefit from BETZ but warned, “If the project does not get real support, a real boost, it will move slowly.”

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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EconomicsΒ &Β Policy

It’s a hard road to economic health

by Tony Hchaime September 1, 2004
written by Tony Hchaime

In a highly publicized speech at the end of July 2004, Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Nasrallah Butros Sfeir called on the government to review the minimum wage in Lebanon (which currently sits at $200 per month, 40% lower in real terms, than the minimum wage of 40 years ago) and pleaded for improved living conditions, which are pushing thousands of Lebanese to seek new lives abroad.

Sfeir’s call for economic reform came on the heels of headlines splashed across the front page of leading newspapers that almost 90% of the Lebanese population falls below the internationally recognized poverty line – a statistic, released in the wake of Mercer Consulting’s equally gloomy March 2004 survey, which ranked Beirut as the 37th most expensive city in the world, the only city in the Middle East (aside from Tel Aviv) to place in the top 50. Beirut, it said, was more expensive than San Francisco, Frankfurt, Munich, Prague, and Athens.

There is some doubt as to how the particular economist came to this figure, because by global standards the fact remains that Lebanon is a middle income country, while 20% of the world’s population earns less than $1 per day. Still, the average income per capita stands at $4,500 per year, or less than $400 a month and if the average person spends a mere $10 per day on food and drink, 75% of the monthly income is already depleted, and this is not including an allowance for gas and transportation, utility bills, schooling, housing, medical care, and other household expenditures. Apart from low income earners, there is also the crippling unemployment rate, which has reached staggering proportions in the past two years. According to recent economic publications, unemployment hit 20% by the end of 2003, which translates into one fifth of the whole labor force, or around 350,000 Lebanese citizens. The unemployment problem is aggravated by the fact that there are a high number of foreign workers filling low-paying jobs.

So, with spending needs for the average Lebanese exceeding monthly incomes by up to 75%, most people are forced to mortgage their cars, homes, or other possessions. Seeing such a high demand and necessity for borrowing, banks were not slow to respond to this demand. With interest rates at around 12%, this is tantamount to kicking a man when he is down.

Based on total non-commercial lending figures from Lebanese banks, and the latest estimates of the country’s population, the average Lebanese carries a debt burden of $1,710, which is sufficient to cover only an additional $140 of spending per month. Still, bank borrowing has not reached the magnitude expected, considering such low levels of income, mainly because of numerous credit facilities offered on most, if not all, consumer goods.

But with lackluster economic growth plaguing the country for almost seven years and little or no GDP growth, it is certainly a wonder why the cost of living has become so high. One explanation lies in the economic policy instituted by Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and Finance Minister Fouad Siniora. After years of growing public debt and recurrent large budget deficits, Hariri desperately needed to come up with new ways to improve government finances. Not much could be done on the expenditure side, at least not without stalling infrastructure works, which led to the government’s two-ply plan to increase government revenues: taxation and broad privatization and securitization.

Numerous attempts to implement a privatization and securitization plan failed over and over again and so taxation became the ultimate tool to offset part of the high interest paid on the debt in the form of municipal taxes, value added taxes, taxes on telecommunication, taxes on (often unreliable) utilities, airport taxes, taxes on deposits and interest, taxes on energy sources with sky-rocketing costs, and the list goes on. At current taxation levels, between 20% and 40% of any bill paid on any type of good or service in Lebanon goes towards government taxes. Typically, around 40% of a post-paid cellular telephone bill is taxes. However, the level of taxes is not the only problem – the way the tax system is structured forces many Lebanese to pay taxes even if they are not generating income. In that regard, the Lebanese taxation system forces business developers to pay taxes on every dime spent on establishing a company or buying a store, beginning with construction, licensing, decorating, and lasting for months, and maybe years, before they even start operating. Another expense burden for the average Lebanese has been increasing gasoline prices. With taxes and government fees constituting almost 75% of fuel costs in the country, and international fuel prices more than doubling over the past two years, it was only a matter of time before people took to the streets in outrage this past May and June. The result? The government capped the price of a 20-liter tank of gasoline at LL22,300, of which over 75% still goes to the government in the form of fees and taxes.

Such an increase in energy costs has created a domino-like effect on prices of consumables throughout the nation, as rising transportation costs have filtered down to various necessity products. Although no official inflation figures are disclosed, financial and economic experts place the annual inflation rate in Lebanon at close to 5% in 2003 and 2004.

But, as if that were not enough to daunt the majority of the Lebanese population, electricity costs are at record levels in Lebanon, matching some of the highest rates in the world, but failing to match their quality and reliability. Furthermore, high-income Gulf tourists have been flocking to the country in massive waves over the past three years, resulting in a sudden spike in demand for housing, clothing, and food and beverages, which leads to corresponding increases in prices across the board – or, in other terms, INFLATION. The ultimate victims of such developments end up being the local residents, which (a) do not contribute to the price increase, (b) do not benefit from increases in income levels, and (c) still have to purchase these, now more expensive, necessities.

With such dire economic conditions facing thousands of university graduates at graduation, it is of no surprise to see a rising trend in the emigration of Lebanese graduates, as it is becoming increasingly impossible to find jobs, establish careers, build families, and secure enough income to live an average life with only the most basic of necessities. So yes, Beirut is certainly an expensive city to live in. But while Lebanon is far from being the only country in the world facing economic woes, the difference remains that governments in most other countries respond to the needs of the people by either providing subsidies, easing taxes to stimulate economic growth, raising the minimum wage level, or imposing regulations for cost of living adjustments, which would allow companies to compensate workers for any significant increases in the cost of living. In Lebanon, however, the lack of economic growth should, β€œin the opinion of the current and recent governments,” be compensated by raising taxes.

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Just like mama used to make

by Anthony Mills September 1, 2004
written by Anthony Mills

Naji Khairallah, owner of Fattoria del Sole (Factory of the Sun), Lebanon’s only producer of Italian cheese, prefers to preface the good news by recounting the bad. The story begins in 1997, when Khairallah, who had spent 30 years in Italy as an interior designer, and an Italian business associate were having dinner in a Beirut restaurant. “We asked for fresh mozzarella and the waiter brought us the yellow, imitation kind,” Khairallah recalled. “We thought: why don’t we set up a mozzarella factory here?” And so it came to pass. In its heyday, five years ago, Fattoria del Sole used to produce 20 different kinds of FORMAGGIO including MOZZARELLA, PROVOLONE, RICOTTA, and PECORINO. Khairallah employed 36 staff and turned over $50,000 to $55,000 a month. Then came disaster. Khairallah’s Italian partner was imprisoned for conning a Lebanese bank out of $1 million in bad checks. The factory had to close down for three years – during which Khairallah was hounded by debt collectors and lawyers, and lost a sizeable portion of his $500,000 investment.

There was however, a bizarre twist. While serving his three-year sentence, Khairallah’s former partner made friends with a fellow inmate who was due for release. The ex-partner told the inmate that he was appointing him director of Fattoria and ordered him, upon his release, to go to the plant and take over control from Khairallah. “One day, a guy shows up here, and without saying good morning orders me to hand over the keys of the plant and my car. I said: ‘Who are you?’ He said: ‘I am the new director, appointed by the Italian in jail.’ They were in the same cell together. So, I hit him. He came back 11 times, and each time I hit him. And then I closed down. The police came here 11 times and took me away. From the first time, I told him: ‘Every time you set foot here, I will hit you.’ But he kept coming back.” “I lost money and customers,” acknowledged Khairallah. “When we opened again, it was very difficult to reintroduce ourselves to the market. All the customers thought we might close again. We are still making up for the three lost years. It’s very hard. They were the worst three years of my life.”

Since the factory reopened in 2002, the battle to regain lost momentum has been an uphill one. Today, Fattoria employs only around seven staff, produces only five or six kinds of Italian cheese because it no longer employs an in-house Italian cheese production specialist, and turns over less than half its pre-closure revenues. But Fattoria del Sole is back. And despite the turmoil of the past, insists the brawny Khairallah from behind a large wooden table in a makeshift kitchen inside the plant, the future is bright. “I can do the work of 10 men,” he boasted. “No one can follow my pace. People thought we would close again within two months. Now it’s been two years, and we are growing.” Today, Fattoria enjoys a 70% to 75% share of Lebanon’s mozzarella market and 40% of the country’s Italian cheese market overall.

Khairallah has drawn a line under judicial proceedings related to his former partner, who is now back in Italy (the money he conned the bank out of was never retrieved). Khairallah’s lawyer has convinced him that a court case brought against him by a bank demanding repayment of a loan taken out as part of the initial Fattoria investment will remain bureaucratically bogged down for 10 to 15 years. And he has taken out another 7- to 10-year, 5% interest, $400,000 small-to-medium-sized industry loan to finance Fattoria’s rebirth. Within the next four to five months, he predicted, the factory should break even. This year, the plant is selling twice as much mozzarella and ricotta as a year ago. Revenue for 2004 is projected to grow by 40% over 2003. “I’m not worried,” he chuckled.

However, Khairallah tempers his optimism. “In the current economic environment, our strategy is to grow slowly,” he said. Fattoria has not resumed exporting – before its temporary closure, about 10% of its products were channeled to foreign markets. “It is important for us to grow again domestically. Then we can think about exports,” Khairallah said, noting that Lebanon has one of the highest per capita dairy product consumption rates in the world. Khairallah said he expected the market for mozzarella and ricotta, at least, to grow, but admitted that they only constitute 5% of the cheese market. “A lot of people don’t know what mozzarella, ricotta or provolone is,” he said. And any attempt to increase awareness of Italian cheese in Lebanon would have to rely on substantial advertising, Khairallah said. “I just can’t afford to do that.” Asked if he thought he would ever be able to sell Italian cheeses to small groceries, Khairallah responded: “Absolutely not, even though the Italian cheeses I produce are not much more expensive than the Arab ones. They don’t understand the difference between good cheese and bad cheese.” Fattoria supplies only restaurants, resorts, hotels and supermarkets. Under the current cheese market conditions, Khairallah agreed, a factory producing only Italian cheese would not survive and so two months ago, Fattoria began producing Lebanese cheeses, such as halloum and akkaoui. “The market for Lebanese cheeses is bigger,” Khairallah conceded. But Khairallah is finding competition in the Arab cheese sector stiff, particularly in the form of cheap Syrian imports. He implied that Syrian cheese importers were benefiting from an unwillingness on the part of the Lebanese government to protect Lebanese cheese producers. “It’s a pity that here in Lebanon we promote the interests of other people ahead of those of the Lebanese. Competition is not fair,” the Fattoria boss grumbled. He pointed to his high overhead costs – electricity, fuel, and telecommunications and compared them to Syria, where they are much lower. And he observed that while Lebanon allows Syrian cheese imports, Damascus has barred cheese imports from Lebanon. “It’s politics,” Khairallah remarked resignedly. He implied, as well, that some Syrian cheese importers might be compromising on quality. “I don’t understand how they can sell halloum at LL3,500 (about $2.30) a kilo,” he said, and suggested that the situation was being aggravated by the government’s failure to enforce quality regulation.

Another problem is the lack of regulation: of the 150 to 160 dairy factories in Lebanon, only about 25 have a license, according to Khairallah. The unlicensed ones are able to produce cheaper, inferior-quality cheese. And certain dairy factories in the Bekaa Valley use cheap, imported Syrian milk to produce cheese, putting plants like Fattoria – which uses Lebanese milk – at a further disadvantage, Khairallah said.

He said his Arab cheese market share wasn’t even 1%, although he expected the figure to grow because Fattoria’s low-salt Arab cheeses were attracting ever-more buyers. Fattoria keeps the salt content of its products down in part so they can be sold as light and healthy to an increasingly health-conscious clientele, but also, because according to Khairallah, there is a general demand for low-salt Arab cheese.

For the moment, Fattoria is still the only producer of Italian cheese in Lebanon. Khairallah doesn’t expect a domestic competitor anytime soon. He argued that this was because the necessary investment in machinery was prohibitively high. But in a country in which successful schemes are quickly emulated, the absence of Italian cheese-producing copycats may be a sign that not everyone shares Khairallah’s faith in the business. Fattoria must, however, compete with Italian imports – such as imitation (processed) mozzarella, which Khairallah plans to begin producing soon. It will be sold for use on pizzas and mana’eesh, and will allow Fattoria to tap into a market that is creating demand for between 1,500 and 2,000 tons of imported imitation mozzarella cheese a year. Fattoria mozzarella sells at less than half the price of Italian imports, and is better, because it is fresher, Khairallah said. “Imported mozzarella has a shelf life of one-and-a-half to two months. It’s not fresh. It contains preservatives. Our mozzarella has a shelf life of 10 days, and our ricotta five. We don’t add anything.”

Except perhaps, a bit of Lebanese determination.

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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