• Donate
  • Our Purpose
  • Contact Us
Executive Magazine
  • ISSUES
    • Current Issue
    • Past issues
  • BUSINESS
  • ECONOMICS & POLICY
  • OPINION
  • SPECIAL REPORTS
  • EXECUTIVE TALKS
  • MOVEMENTS
    • Change the image
    • Cannes lions
    • Transparency & accountability
    • ECONOMIC ROADMAP
    • Say No to Corruption
    • The Lebanon media development initiative
    • LPSN Policy Asks
    • Advocating the preservation of deposits
  • JOIN US
    • Join our movement
    • Attend our events
    • Receive updates
    • Connect with us
  • DONATE
Real Estate

Gentrifying Gemaizeh

by Peter Speetjens February 1, 2004
written by Peter Speetjens

In the last two years, Gemaizeh, the neighborhood due east of the BCD, has seen property prices rise by an average of 50% across all categories, as restaurant owners, property developers and discerning homebuyers have identified the district’s commercial potential. At least $50 million has been invested in residential and retail projects in the area and, unlike other areas of Beirut, demand appears to be strong. It is arguably Beirut’s most dynamic district.

Gemaizeh’s renaissance can arguably be traced back to the renovation of the old glass café (Ahwat Azaz) in 2001 and the opening of Paul, the up-market bakery in February 2002. Before that the area was charmingly distressed but commercially comatose.

Today, land is selling at $800/m2 of BUA, an increase of more than 200% in two years and an accurate reflection of its proximity to the BCD where plots are selling for roughly $1,000/m2 of BUA. Residential rents for old building are now at a healthy $50/m2 per year mark, while retail rents have reached up to $500/m2, an increase of some 70% in the last two years. Prices are still cheaper than the neighboring BCD by roughly 50% across the board and this, together with the area’s charm, is what is convincing many investors of the area’s potential. Today, the façades and the historic St Nicholas Stairs have been restored, while food aficionados can buy French bread at Paul’s, sample fusion cooking at Food Yard, Spanish tapa’s at Louis’ jazz bar and traditional Lebanese cuisine at La Tabkha. Two art galleries, Fadi and Alice Mogabgab, have opened, while Torino Express will soon be serving Italian coffee and cocktails. Fady Saba, a leading player on the Beirut nightclub circuit, is one of the new generation to invest in Gemazieh. He opened the club/restaurant Central in September 2001 and at the end of 2003 he followed this up with by plowing $100,000 into Al Tabkha, a 50-seat Lebanese restaurant that serves home cooked-style food.

“Gemaizeh still has the flavor of old Beirut,” Saba explained. “For Central I was looking for an old house with spirit, which you just don’t find that in anymore downtown, which has become Lebanon’s own Disneyland. Still, I went there to look for a location for Al Tabkha but it was also too expensive for a small restaurant serving Lebanese food for $7 a head.”

So it was back to Gemaizeh, where Saba found an unfinished building in which he rented the 100m2 ground floor for $25,000 a year. “In downtown, I would have paid at least twice as much rent and much more on refurbishing,” he said. “It’s good there are regulations in downtown, but they’re overdoing it. They want to have a say on everything from the paint on the walls to the lighting.”

To real estate agent Michael Dunn Gemaizeh’s ascendancy doesn’t come as a surprise. “It’s close to the central district, it has a certain aesthetic value, but most importantly it’s relatively cheap,” he said. “In downtown you pay some $750 to $1,000 per/m2. A 120m2 restaurant with a small mezzanine costs around $150,000 a year in rent. On top of that comes an on average $100,000 initial investment without kitchen, plus 8.5% municipality tax. So, the initial costs of opening a restaurant in downtown lie between $250,000 and $300,000. In Gemaizeh the same place would cost you about a third.”

Local broker Elie Zeeny, general manager of City Real Estate in Gemaizeh, confirmed that increased demand had seen retail rent nearly double over the last two years. “Then you paid between $100 and $200 per square meter,” he said in his office facing Electricité du Liban, “while today that will be between $200 and $300. Still, compare that to downtown Beirut, where Solidere asks up to $1,000, and even more for a premises on one of the main streets.”

According to Zeeny, residential prices have also doubled, although 50% is probably more realistic. One resident who bought a 3-bedroom, 140m2 apartment on the desirable St Nicholas steps in 1999 for $62,000 says he could realistically expect to sell for at least $90,000 today. Few areas of Beirut can boast that level of growth. Zeeny quoted current asking prices at between $500/m2 and $800/m2 per square meter for old houses and between $1,000 and $1,200 for newer ones. “The further you move into Gemaizeh the less you pay,” Zeeny said. “Past the Electricité du Liban rents can be half or even a third of what you pay in the area closest to downtown.”

Not surprisingly Gemaizeh has also seen some significant brand new luxury residential developments as many Beirut yuppies flock to buy or rent. Developer, Jamil Ibrahim is taking on the 23-storey half-built concrete skeleton off Tabaris (untouched since 1975) and, with $10 million, intends to turn it into the Aïdi Tower. The property will offer luxury 425m2 apartments for an average of $2,000/m2. Another developer, Joseph Moawad is developing an 11-floor residential tower on the edge of Gemaizeh and Saifi. Apartments measure between 150m2 and 400m2

Arguably some of the most eye-catching developments have been Convivium I and II. Both are new five-floor apartment blocks, yet built in the style of Gemaizeh’s traditional architecture characterized by arches, big windows and high ceilings. With an average price tag of $1,200/m2 all apartments have been sold, prompting developer Kareem Bassil to spend another $19 million on Convivium III, IV and V, all in Gemaizeh.

“I just love the area, it’s a bit of old Beirut” said Bassil. However, seeing current developments, isn’t he afraid Gemaizeh will loose the very character he loves so much? “As long as Gemaizeh can keep the old houses and developers respect the environment they work in, the area will be fine,” he relied. “That’s why I didn’t built a tower, which I could have done, but kept it a low rise construction in tune with its surroundings.

Bassil warned that people should remain reasonable not to kill the area. “I bought the land for Convivium V for $950 per square meter, but I have heard people are asking up to $2,500/m2. This is ridiculous.” Fady Saba has similar fears. “Gemaizeh is going to boom,” he said, “I know many people who are thinking of opening up a place in this part of town. I just hope that the inhabitants here realize what’s happening. They shouldn’t become greedy. The day American chains like TGIF move in Gemaizeh will just become an extension of downtown.”

Gemaizeh’s renaissance is a typical example of urban gentrification with the BCD acting as a magnet for investment. However, still does not have as much pedestrian traffic as the BCD, so its retail sector – restaurants, shops, galleries and café’s – must have a well-defined formula to attract customers. It must also have ample parking spaces. This is one of the area’s weaknesses but those who have invested argue the situation is not that bad. “People should stop saying that, it’s just not true,” said Andreas Boulos, former manager of Pacifico and owner of Torino Express. “In a sense the area has a three level parking: Rue Gourand, the parallel street of lower Gemaizeh and an enormous car park in front of Marine Tower.” Nevine Emad works for the Association for the Development of Gemaizeh (ADG), which in its own way contributed to the gentrification of Gemaizeh by refurbishing and painting several old buildings, as well as the stairs. “We welcome investments,” she said, “as they bring life to the area and encourage others to invest. Don’t forget that until recently there were a lot of closed windows in Rue Gourand. But, on the other hand, Gemaizeh is a residential area and investors must respect its general atmosphere. Though we are not the police, we, the inhabitants and the municipality must play a guarding role.”

Luckily for Gemaizeh, its largely elderly inhabitants also care about the area. When Maher Chebaro wanted to name his Jazz hangout Bar Louie, local residents protested and signed a petition against it. Problem was not so much the place itself, but the use of the word ‘bar,’ which to many people was a euphemism for a brothel. Chebaro removed the offending word. His establishment is now simply called ‘Louie.’ With such a robust community, Gemaizeh may just hold onto its charm.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
The Buzz

Home style cookin’

by Anissa Rafeh February 1, 2004
written by Anissa Rafeh

Thanks to the rash of various eateries in Beirut, not to mention the ongoing sushi craze, the current trend in Lebanese dining would appear a long way from eating fassulya wu ruz in mom’s kitchen. But that is just the kind of image that La Tabkha – the latest eatery to open its doors in the increasingly ‘in’ Gemaizeh area – is hoping will lead diners to its doors. Offering a menu of hearty dishes that promise to taste like home, La Tabkha’s food is convenient and affordable, with the average meal costing about $10 per person. “We noticed there were no places offering home-cooked meals as their main concept,” said Fady Saba, managing owner of La Tabkha, adding that his restaurant is especially appealing to working couples not able to make their meals everyday and people who are sick of ordering junk food at the office. “We are trying to create a new food behavior by providing meals that are fast, good, healthy and available at good locations.”

For starters, La Tabkha’s healthy concept of eating consists of an all-you-can-eat appetizer buffet for LL8,000, which includes everything from fried eggplant, squash and cauliflower, to hindbi and loubieh bi zeit. There are salads on the menu, for LL3,500, including the traditional cucumber and labneh combination.

The entrees listed for LL5,000 include lentil soup, omelet’s and kichk wu kawarma. However, La Tabkha also offer a set menu for LL11,000 featuring the plat du jour – which was cheick mihshi with rice (stuffed eggplant) or a chicken casserole, on the day my companion and I visited the restaurant – and includes a salad and dessert (a choice of nammoura, sfouf, rice pudding, chocolate biscuits, and muhalabiyeh au chocolat). I opted for the appetizer buffet and my companion chose the set menu and, as it was a touch on the chilly side outside, we both decided to start with some sumptuous lentil soup. The portions were very generous and we both enjoyed the richly textured soup amid the charming backdrop of a combination of French bistro and Lebanese culture. It was also reassuring that the cleanliness of the kitchen was clearly visible thanks to large glass windows that allow patrons to see the cooks actually prepare the food. At the buffet, I helped myself to a selection of loubieh bi zeit, hindbi, mashed potatoes with olive oil, fried eggplant and my favorite, fried cauliflower with a noticeably fresh taheeni sauce. Of course, my biased taste buds would have to pick the fried cauliflower as the standout appetizer of the buffet, but it must be pointed out that the hindbi was nice and crisp, the loubieh and potatoes just the right amount of tangy and the eggplant light and not too oily. I would’ve liked, however, to see some hummous or mutabel on the menu to make the meal more complete, which was a thought reiterated by my companion. Despite the absence of hummous, my lunching buddy enjoyed his cheikh mihshi with relish. The presentation was very attractive with the eggplant and rice coming in separate plates. When I asked how he liked his meal, he replied, “It’s just like mama made it.”

For diners who prefer to avoid the bustle of a busy restaurant, La Tabkha also offers a delivery service, with meals coming in a neat, compact box much like the old-fashioned metal lunchboxes. As the menu is set a month in advance and includes a calendar of plat du jours, it’s easy to pick out your favorites. With the apparent initial success of the restaurant, Saba revealed plans of an expansion of their delivery options and a La Tabhka franchise. “We expect to have two more outlets in Lebanon over the year, and if we succeed, we’ll go abroad,” explained Saba. “But the locations of the different outlets in Lebanon are not official yet.”

If packed tables are anything to go by, then La Tabkha is certainly on the right track. By one o’clock, the restaurant was crowded with a sprinkling of celebrity clientele. In a nutshell, my companion put it best: “I think they’ve got it just right.”

February 1, 2004 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
The Buzz

The art of leadership

by Executive Staff February 1, 2004
written by Executive Staff

How can I become a leader? This question pops up quite often with the assumption that there is some magic formula for leadership lying around somewhere. There isn’t. People want us to tell them “the five easy steps to become a leader”. But, they don’t exist. How great it would be if leadership could be reduced to a simple formula. We only wish that it were this easy and that we had the answer.

We would be famous!

Whenever you see a book or hear of a training program promising that by following their proven method you will become a great leader, instead of signing up, be very wary of their promise. You do not become a leader simply by what you read or attend.

This does not mean that any self-improvement through literature or training is impossible. By all means, it is imperative that you develop behavioral qualities and skills if you want to lead. Case in point, leadership requires certain behavioral qualities like character, vision and creativity. Without these characteristics it is difficult for a person to lead.

Think about this, would you want to follow a person with no vision? What if she or he were not a person of character? Would you follow this person? The answer is a resounding no. We are sure that you desire to follow a person that inspires you and that you respect. Now ask yourself this question, what do people see when they look at me as a leader? Do others want to emulate me?

Throughout our careers, we have heard it said, repeatedly, Leadership requires thick skin. One of our favorite quotes on leadership is, “Unless you are being kicked in the rear, you are not in the lead.” Leadership is challenging and will bring with it resistance. Therefore, it is important that a leader have the skills of resilience, expertise in their field, and cultural fluency.

In leadership there is no room for the sole proprietor. If no one is following, you are not leading. The priority of leadership is working well with people. It requires skills to build partnerships and alliances. Leaders must be able to communicate and collaborate well with others.

One of the major facets of leadership is developing others; it is not good enough to have other people follow you. Every person who leads is in a role to coach others. Coaching sees the potential in others and then develops and encourages that potential. Leaders who coach are known for the people they develop.

It is also important for leaders to know how to share their knowledge. Great leaders are known more for what they give away than what they do. What knowledge are you giving away?

One last point about the skills for leadership is that a leader must have a global perspective. There is no denying or escaping the fact that the world is interconnected at so many levels. On any given day, we are exposed to and influenced by the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and the West. Learning to leverage this global network of mutuality will increase your opportunities abroad and at home.

You must realize, however, that acquiring a certain behavior and skills doesn’t automatically make you a leader. It’s just a starting point, and what you do next is what determines your leadership. It is also about you, your belief in yourself as a leader and what you do with the skills in order to achieve results.

For decades leadership has been taught as a science. The “experts” have taken the subject matter of leadership into the laboratory and dissected it and put it through all sorts of rigorous testing. The result was a simple formula. The world then applauded the “experts” and their experiments, without ever realizing that the experiment wasn’t over.

We have talked to people all around the world who have adopted the findings of these “experts” and failed miserably. Had they tested the results, they would have observed that the “experts” findings are unfounded. Why? Because leadership is not a science.

Leadership is an art.

Imagine with us what it would be like if today we went to the best leadership seminar in the world. While there, we heard fantastic teaching on the skills of leadership, and we actually believed that we could become great leaders. Then tomorrow we returned to work with our memorized tools, but with no action on incorporating them into our life. Are we leaders? Are we any better off? No! On the contrary, we are worse off, because we think we have become leaders, but in reality we have no idea.

This realization shows us that leadership is an art, a real art. Think about how ridiculous this scenario would be: You go to the art store and buy all of the supplies. You select the best brushes; you purchase oil paints in so many vibrant colors. You decide on a top quality canvas and have it stretched perfectly. Then you top it all off with a fabulous dark blue French beret and return to your rented studio and put up a sign that says: “Artist.” Are you really a professional painter? For that matter are you even a run-of-the-mill painter? You could be, only if you know what to do with the supplies that you purchased and if you actually use them. Becoming a painter is much more than the accumulation of the supplies and becoming a leader is more than amassing your skills. Art, and leadership, appears from what you do with what you already have.

Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. once said…”There always has been difficulty in understanding and practicing real leadership. That’s because it is more of an art than a science.”

So, let’s now ask the first question again. Is it possible for anyone to become a leader? Yes, if they believe that it’s possible, acquire and express the skills of leadership. But, you may quickly argue, “What if I am not in a position of leadership?!” Answer: since when did the position make someone a leader? We have all observed many men and women who have the title, the office and the position, but they still are not great leaders. We can also list many people who do not have the position, the office or the authority, yet they are great leaders.

Think back to the elementary school playground. We do not know about your school, but at the schools we attended, there were not any designated leadership positions on the playground for the kids. Still, some kids took charge and led. Just for fun, visit the local playground during recess and observe the leadership that some of the students exert.

The business world is full of people who work in front-

line jobs and express great leadership; and many who hold the positions but do not lead. From our experience, we can assure you that we did not get to where we are by waiting on someone to give us a position of leadership in order to lead. We did and we do lead wherever we are.

So, no matter where you are, whether, you are a general manager or a clerk in the back office, you can lead. After all, all you have to remember is that leadership is the art or expression of all your skills. How do you do this?

Great question! Let’s go back to the painting example. Say, that you want to become a great painter. You buy the supplies, then what? Along with learning how to use the supplies, you need to remember that you have to just use them. The paint isn’t going to put itself on the canvas.

Start brushing!

To become a leader, you start where you are with what is in your sphere of influence, believe that you have the ability and identify the skills that you need to learn more about. Look above and select areas that you need to acquire more training or information about. Then do it. Act! Once you have learned about the skill, by reading or attending a seminar, start using it. You only lead by taking action.

Leadership is this simple – believe in yourself, understand the skill and express it.

Be the Best!

By Tommy Weir and Christine Crumrine, from the Beirut-

based CrumrineWeir, the global leadership experts. For more information, visit www.crumrineweir.com

 

February 1, 2004 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Business

Battling the tide

by Anthony Mills February 1, 2004
written by Anthony Mills

Saudi billionaire Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal’s recent $98 million purchase of a 49% share in the satellite broadcasting arm of leading Lebanese television station LBC International has provided a welcome, if modest, boost to Lebanon’s satellite television sector. The industry has been struggling to compete with cash-laden Gulf channels like market leader MBC and Abu Dhabi TV – both backed financially by their respective governments – and to overcome the roughly $30 million, or 20%, loss in 2003 television advertising revenues caused, according to LBC Chairman Pierre Daher, by the war in Iraq and the bombings in Riyadh.

“The move has reinforced the position of LBC as a potential leader in the region,” stated Daher. “Walid bin Talal did not make this jump into LBC just because he felt like it. It was carefully planned. He thinks LBC has potential,” said Daher, who discounted the suggestion that bin Talal, who bought the stake in LBCSAT – valued at $200 million – from Arab Radio and Television (ART) chairman Sheikh Saleh Kamel, might wish to exert editorial pressure on the station. Meanwhile, other Lebanese stations are hoping the development signals a trend that will allow them to forge similar strategic, financially rewarding partnerships.

Not everyone, however, is optimistic. “Lebanon’s satellite television channels have serious problems,” remarked one media professional. “LBC and Future were very good satellite TV stations until the Gulf people decided to invest more in their TV stations. Now you have private stations like LBC and Future competing with MBC, which is funded by the Saudi government, with Abu Dhabi TV, backed by its government, and with al-Jazeera. They can’t compete.” He said annual satellite television budgets had in some instances, in the Gulf, quadrupled in two years, from about $25 million, to $100 million. Lebanese channels, although just as creative and aptly managed, have been left financially adrift in the wake.

The bin Talal move has at least consolidated LBC’s position at the head of the Lebanese satellite television sector. Future TV remains hot on its heels. “It’s mainly LBC and Future that are making money,” said the chairman and general manager of NBN, Nasser Safieddine. “Apart from them, I don’t think any Lebanese station is making serious income from the satellite market.”

Of bin Talal’s foray into LBC, he said: “All of us in the Lebanese media welcome this. A boost for any Lebanese station is a boost for the whole sector,” he said, before adding, “NBN is looking for a strategic partner. We are not ashamed to say this. Because competing, as we do today, with stations that have budgets that are 10, 15, 20 times as big as ours is useless.”

Bin Talal’s establishment of the 24-hour music channel, Rotana – backed by a music production company, and using the old Lebanese MTV infrastructure – has also been hailed as a smart business move that also benefits Lebanon’s satellite TV sector. “Rotana is different. It is a complete organization. It takes care of music production television programming. I think that very soon they will be the leaders of music television in the Arab world,” said one media executive. “And it’s good for Lebanon. It’s money coming in.” “People get fed up with news. They want something different,” added another. “It’s a good move,” agreed Safieddine. “It’s easier to market music and songs than educational programs.”

LBCI has been sub-contracted by the American Harris Corp, which has won a $96 million contract to refurbish Iraq’s official media to train Iraqi anchorpersons.

Still, old habits prevail. The weekly LBC political satire show Bass Mat Watan was suspended at the end of last month by the National Audiovisual Media Council (NAMC) after it played a practical joke that, according to the government body, “harmed the image and authority of the state, and shook the country’s stability”. At the end of 2003, New TV owner Tahseen Khayyat was arrested on charges of treason. All agreed the move constituted a politically motivated attack on the media. Khayyat was released 25 hours later and the charges were dropped. “On the face of it, it looks that way,” remarked Walid Azzi, publisher of ArabAd. “It’s not very reassuring,” noted another newspaper executive. “It was harassment.” Safieddine said he felt Khayyat should not have been arrested, but, interestingly, defended self-censorship as a “wonderful thing.”

Lebanon’s print media, for their part, are reeling under a double scourge: miserable circulation figures and worryingly low advertising expenditures, which observers say dropped by 25% last year. Although the market is characterized by an abundance of publications, especially magazines, most are unable to survive without continual financial top-ups. A vicious circle has, in effect, been created: no one wants to advertise in a publication that doesn’t sell. But publications need advertising revenue to expand circulation. Currently, only 16% to 17% of media-related advertising budgets are spent on the print sector, claimed one publisher. This is due, in great part, to the fact that “no magazine sells more than 3,000 copies and no newspaper reaches more than 10,000 readers,” asserted ARABAD publisher Azzi. However, publishers constantly inflate readership figures – sometimes by as much as 50% to 60%. The tendency has become more pronounced, Azzi lamented, as journalistically below-par, spit-and-stick magazines mushroom and compete. “Spitting and sticking is very easy to do, but it’s not journalism,” he said. “You need quality, in-depth journalism and innovation to get a magazine rolling and to get advertising.”

In the struggling print media, An Nahar leads the pack both in terms of quality and advertising revenues, observers agreed. “It’s run by master professionals and has acquired a great deal of integrity. This is why it gets the lion’s share of advertising,” said Azzi. A one-page ad in An Naharcosts between $8,000 and $14,000.

However, even An Nahar is feeling the financial pinch, particularly as its has just bought back, for a considerable, undisclosed sum, Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s 34.5% stake in the paper. In the shadow of An Nahar follow As Safir and L’Orient le Jour, and then the Daily Star. The latter two need to be developed, said Azzi, adding that the Daily Star in particular must not make the mistake of thinking it can rest on its laurels because it is the only English-language paper in town. Daily Star Executive Editor Rami Khouri is attempting to ensure that does not happen. The regional Daily Star is undergoing expansion-oriented change, he said. It is now being printed in Lebanon, Kuwait and Qatar and is being sold in 11 countries. “We’re becoming a truly regional paper in terms of our coverage and distribution. We’re making serious ongoing changes in content,” said Khouri, adding that the regional Daily Star aims to become the leading English-language Middle East newspaper with analysis, commentary, insight and interpretation. The Daily Star is not placing as much emphasis on straight news because it believes readers obtain this from other, local papers or from electronic media. To this end, it has developed a still-expanding network of about 150 contributors from around the world.

Meanwhile, the new newspaper Al Balad has elicited mixed reactions and prognoses. “It’s still early to judge,” remarked a cautious Azzi, although he commended the paper’s marketing efforts. Striking a more positive note, NBN General Manager Safieddine said: “I think it’s a very intelligent move. I think they moved into the market in an intelligent way.” An Nahar editor Tueni said he hoped the Al Balad would succeed because competition was good for the market but added that he did not regard the paper as a direct competitor of either An Nahar or As Safir because it’s profile was different: less political and serious. “I haven’t had any reaction,” said LBC Chairman Daher. “It’s new. But I read a paper for politics. Until now, I haven’t seen an editorial line in Al Balad. The rest is nice, but I am not sure I would by a paper for the rest.” Al Balad is currently sorting out a dispute with the Order of the Press, which has accused it of ‘dumping’ its copies at a price forbidden by applicable laws. A newspaper comprising more than 24 pages cannot be sold for less than LL2,000 – Al Balad is selling for LL1,000.

A spokesperson for Al Balad said that after meeting with Order of the Press representatives the newspaper realized it had a stark choice: raise the price or diminish the number of pages. “We will not diminish the number of pages,” the representative stated clearly, “because that would change the nature of Al Balad.”

Industry insiders have suggested that pressure was brought to bear on Al Balad over the pricing issue because of the paper’s apparent support for An Nahar editor Gebran Tueni in his dispute with Nabih Berri. Tueni had implied in an editorial that Berri was involved in the Union des Transports Africains, the company that owned the plane that crashed off Cotonou, Benin, on Christmas day. The idea was, the insiders said, that a ‘rebel’ Al Balad should be tamed – made to understand that, in the view of the Order of the Press, a new newspaper must refrain from siding with the ‘wrong’ party in disagreements involving important politicians.

Would that the industry watchdogs be always so lynx-eyed in their patrolling of the sector. Although there is widespread acknowledgement that the orders have helped defend freedom of the press in Lebanon, many media professionals argued that the two organizations’ directors have used the bodies to bolster their personal prestige rather than to remedy the sector’s ills, and that qualified journalists are being barred entry because they are not at one with the orders’ directors. “These positions are not there to give you prestige. They are supposed to enable you to see exactly what is going on in the business, so that you can correct things,” noted one publisher, who asked not to be identified. “This is not happening.” Mohamad Baalbaki, president of the Order of the Press, denied the claims. “This is not true,” he said. “Whoever says this, doesn’t know the reality of our activities in the order” Qualified journalists had not, he said, been deliberately denied entry. But, he explained, their membership must be approved in a meeting held by an eight-member committee comprising four senior members of the boards of the Journalists and Press Orders respectively. A minimum of five board members must be in attendance for a membership application to be approved. Unfortunately, for two years, no meeting has been held because no board member from the Order of Journalists is willing to show up. “If the representatives of the other order don’t attend the committee meetings the committee cannot make a decision on memberships. Our colleagues in the other order, especially its president, Melhem Karam, don’t like to come to these committee meetings. He prefers not to expand the membership in his order. We are constantly asking him to come to a meeting where membership requests can be studied. He is always busy or traveling,” said Baalbaki. The committee last met, acknowledged Baalbaki, “about two years ago.”

February 1, 2004 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Economics & Policy

Doom and gloom

by Thomas Schellen January 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Views on Lebanon’s economic perspectives have tended throughout the post-war period to concentrate on macroeconomic and fiscal issues. As a result of the worsening fiscal situation, socioeconomic needs in the last few years became overshadowed to a worrying degree by concerns over the national debt and its servicing. The state’s ongoing and exasperating procrastination in settling long outstanding dues with the National Social Security Funds for medical treatment of civil servants and other obligations in 2003, in itself an inexcusable inaction on behalf of any government, can by no stretch of imagination be explained in any other way.

This year’s social debates were ostensibly fueled by self-serving political agendas, a primary example for the latter trend shown by complaints over the “hijacking” of the October 23 national strike. Power players and interest groups allegedly converted these demonstrations over a variety of popular financial demands into stages for promoting themselves. Nonetheless, 2003 was universally recorded as a year of relative relief and macroeconomic calm for Lebanon. This is owing to the debt reprieve under the Paris II agreements with donor and lender nations and institutions, as well as to financial engineering measures taken under leadership of the central bank and realized under strong participation of the banking sector. For 2004, however, a year in which the presidency of the republic is to be decided upon and overdue commitments in fiscal debt reduction urgently await fulfillment, there seems to be little hope for major improvements in the fitful macroeconomic situation. Expecting less than 3% in growth, international analysts project next year’s development of Lebanese GDP at little variance to 2003. While modest growth is vastly preferable over recession, the country would need to see a stronger economic and productivity gain to rack up hopes for breaking the debt cycle. Additionally, it is unsettling that 2004 elsewhere looks to be much brighter than 2003. The OECD has upbeat expectations, sensing “ample evidence of the renewed strength of the world economy” and a “palpable recovery” not only for the US and Japan. “Global activity is picking up,” stated the organization’s freshly released outlook for 2004/05, “with financial market conditions improving and business investment in the process of taking over the baton from consumption.” In the Arab region, many countries had grown more than Lebanon in 2003. Also for 2004, the Economist Intelligence Unit’s GDP development expectations for countries such as Bahrain (5.4%), Jordan (5.2%), Qatar (5%) and the UAE (4.1%) are way ahead of Lebanon’s 2.5% EIU projection. For the petro-economies of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, expectations of a major oil price decrease push GDP growth predictions below 1.5%. Iraq, where a 19% leap is forecast, is in a development-need category of its own, but relative to other countries in the Gulf and Levant, Lebanon’s chances for increasing its role in the regional economy do not appear impressive. To impel better growth, Lebanon for one thing will require vast improvements in the quality of governance. At least that is what World Bank assertions of the importance of good public governance for economic development suggested in autumn 2003, in combination with the institution’s assessments of governance deficiencies in MENA countries. Advancing Lebanon beyond meandering steps of sluggish development seems more difficult to conceive without socioeconomic impulses that ease the widespread sentiment of suffering from consistently tougher living conditions. In one recent survey, over two thirds of respondents deemed social spending on health care and education as the budget items the government should prioritize.

While preoccupation with socially less relevant general spending and neglect of reform needs are often associated with the escalation of Lebanon’s public debt and the downturn of socioeconomic living quality, the irony of the present situation is that insistence on keeping social spending accounts low and macroeconomic prudence high are the best course forward. Both Yves de San, the UNDP resident representative, and Selim Hoss, former Lebanese prime minister and economist, espoused this view when asked by EXECUTIVE what they judged to be key economic issues for 2004.

In light of several years without adjustments, demands for wage increases are fair, “but the big question is if the economy can afford it,” Hoss said. “We have an army of employees in public administration. If the minimum wage is increased now, it will have a tremendous negative effect on the budget.”

Both government and employers would offer strong resistance to wage increases, which neither public nor private sector could afford, he cautioned. “Should this increase be accepted, it would have repercussions on the general price level and a possible weakening of the monetary situation. This might prompt the central bank to even increase interest rates to higher than they are now, to safeguard the monetary situation.”

Regardless of how the fiscal debt problem had built up to its present magnitude, the macroeconomic situation needs to be the focal concern, said de San. “I don’t think that we have a choice,” he said. “One cannot let the country go belly up because then, the social impact would just be impossible to manage. I think that is the priority.”

As long as the country steered clear of fiscal meltdown, the UNDP official did not anticipate a social explosion, except for improbable scenarios such as “if suddenly the banking sector were to crash or the country itself would go bankrupt. As a result of that, the shock would be too great for the poorest third of the population and very heavy on the middle income group.”

Also according to Hoss, a social explosion is not likely. People had found an escape route from the economic pressures through emigration, he maintained, and this outflow of labor (and the inflow of remittances) should not be taken lightly.

The government’s economic objective for 2004 should be to overcome the cycle of debt and deficit. “This vicious circle can be broken only at the point where the rate of increase in GDP is higher than the rate of increase in public debt. When we reach that point, we reach a virtuous cycle,” he said. “The clue is encouraging foreign investment and encouraging Lebanese domestic capital to be invested inside the country. Investment is the clue to the whole issue.”

For de San, efforts for economic improvements ought to put the human being back at the center of development decisions although this was not always easy to achieve conceptually. “The country is not doing too bad when compared to others, especially when seen against peer group of economies of similar size,” he said. “Where it is not doing so well is in comparison to itself. Segments of the population suffer and are less well off than before. Poverty and disparities, they are so obvious.”

However, when seen against a baseline from the mid-90s, the country had been advancing in certain socioeconomic issues and was not too far from achieving some results, he added. Improvements in fields such as securing equitable class sizes and teacher ratios in rural and urban schools were not primarily an issue of cost, and awareness had grown that funds could be used more productively. A recent country report on Lebanon’s situation in relation to the targets of the UN Millennium Development (MD) Goals showed a reasonably high probability for achieving those goals, which are built around the key target of halving by 2015 the proportion of people living in extreme poverty. While all available statistics and figures had been put to use in drawing up the report, the task now at hand would be to examine how much it would cost to realize those goals. “What we need to do now, is to see what reaching the MD goals in 2015 means in real cash needs. That job is still to be done,” de San said. “But I don’t have the answer yet. Once we have it, we will be probably able to see whether the country can afford it. Whether it can afford it with the current situation is one thing. Whether it can afford it three years from now depends very much on decisions that have to be taken on a number of issues.”

It bears repeating: these urgent decisions begin and end with macroeconomic matters. The World Bank (WB) in the course of 2003 left no doubt over its growing concerns at delays in privatization commitments and fiscal promises by the government in Beirut. The WB quarterly assessment of Lebanon’s latest developments was still impending in early December 2003, but the institution’s senior country economist, Sebastien Dessus, made it clear enough. “If there is one issue in this country, it is the fiscal issue and debt sustainability,” he told EXECUTIVE.

With presidential and parliamentary elections on the agenda within the next year-and-a-half, inertia is much likelier in 2004 than any enlightened decision-making where it is most critical – namely, the political arena and public sector administration. Some countries in the region are looking at better economic prospects. At the end of 2003, the Middle East is a changed but not necessarily better place than 12 months ago. However, this moment’s most positive difference is that people have no impending invasion of Iraq to dread. Hopes for a better future are always abound when a new, however untried or out-of-the-ordinary, attempt is launched towards solving the region’s real essential problem: the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. For Lebanon, however, both local and international experts confirm that the region’s stability or instability will not be the key influence on the economy in 2004, and certainly won’t do as an excuse for not making progress in solving homespun problems. At least for one more year, socioeconomic concerns again will not be receiving the attention and support they deserve. Before aspiring for regional roles and addressing any other issues, the country may have to demonstrate that it can handle its own decision needs. As one local influential in the younger generation of business executives suggested, perhaps national decision-making should try a time-tested recipe to encourage agreement: put all involved into one big hall, lock the doors and misplace the keys until unity has been reached and a comprehensive course of action signed. The question is if events in 2004 would suffice to reach that desirable victory.

January 1, 2004 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Real Estate

Hot property

by Executive Staff January 1, 2004
written by Executive Staff

It is encouraging to be able to report that 2003 saw further movement and increased (mainly foreign and expatriate) demand for properties in the residential market, one which is expected to register as much as 15% annual growth in property transactions. This will come hard on the heels of the 30% growth witnessed in 2002, which saw residential property sales of $635 million. However, developers were, and will continue to be, burdened by the twin evils of political and governmental risk, given the volatile nature of the region and Lebanon’s growing, and apparently unsolvable, debt crisis.

The explanation for the increased activity in the residential sector – compared to the relatively sluggish office and retail markets – is because Lebanon is consolidating itself as the Arab world’s premier entertainment and tourist destination. There are additional contributing factors: the results of Paris II created greater confidence in the country’s finances and a post-9/11 world has made the case for Lebanon as a target for Arab investors all the more compelling. Nevertheless these are contributing factors; the big picture shows us that we have regained what we lost in 1975.

The residential market has had to claw its way back from the rampant boom of the early 90s and the subsequent catastrophic crash of 1997. Yes, we were selling everything we built at big margins but there were too many amateurs in a market that was soon flooded with bad quality apartments in unsuitable locations. Much of this useless property has been taken over by banks and liquidated, but the rows of empty apartments that overlook the Jounieh highway are a testament to the recklessness of that period.

The postwar property debacle did have a silver lining. Banks are now more cautious and want to see a proven track record from property developers seeking debt. This is good for us professionals who can also demonstrate to potential purchasers (many of whom are discerning expatriate Lebanese and Arab nationals from the GCC countries seeking a second home in Lebanon) that they – the developers that is – have the experience to deliver in terms of quality, size and location. All we would like to see from the banks is a further drop in the lending rate to maybe 6 or 6.5%. Further flexibility in mortgage lending would also spur home buying. That said, the mortgage is a recent phenomenon in the Lebanese market and the fact that we have banks willing to lend over 15 years is as good as we can expect for the time being.

What is being bought? Well, in 2002, there was much demand for new, big, luxurious apartments and by big I mean 400m2 to 600m2. These were costing anything from $1 to $3 million. Now we see equally robust demand for new 200m2 three-bedroom apartments that sell for around $500,000 in Raouche, Ramlet el Baida and Verdun in particular, but there has also been activity in the BCD and Ashrafieh.

This does not mean to say that only new apartments are selling. Those who bought, for example, in 2000 should be able to sell at a profit today if they can undercut current construction costs, which have gone up by about 20% across the board. Why? Land prices have risen by 20%, while increased development has also put a premium on labor and equipment. We are also burdened by paying VAT (which incidentally we cannot reclaim) while the strengthening Euro has seen a rise in the price of building materials – 80% of which comes from Europe. Yes, growth comes at a price.

The biggest problem facing developers today is the high cost of land, which can find its origins in the BCD where the price of the square meter has gone up from (the already high price of) $1,000 per m2 of BUA (built up area) to between $1,300 to $1,400 per m2 of BUA. Solidere should never have put up their prices on the basis of a few high profile sales and, in doing so, they have eaten into our profits by as much as 50% should we wish to develop in the BCD. The seafront, which saw sales of $50 million, now looks cheap compared to the lots further in land which are more expensive and do not have the same sea view.

My company has instead looked elsewhere, such as up and coming neighborhoods like Gemaizeh and Saifi, which are central and have character. There we can “breathe” a bit easier, selling at around $1,800 per m2 for our luxury development. Still, many landlords in Gemaizeh are being unrealistic about the value of the land, which they are valuing on the basis of its proximity to the BCD. There is no comparison. The BCD has better infrastructure and better regulations. Still it is an area that has potential.

In the commercial market we have seen a gradual pick up in the office market but this is unlikely to translate into anything spectacular, while the retail rents in the BCD continued to put pressure on landlords. Instead, the future should lie in well-built and equally well-conceived shopping malls, beach clubs, hotels, furnished apartments and, of course, private homes – all the components of a resort nation.

January 1, 2004 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Economics & Policy

In the red

by Executive Staff January 1, 2004
written by Executive Staff

It would not be difficult to state that 2003 did not witness the fulfillment of the economic and financial objectives, which had been announced at the time of Paris II meeting in November 2002. Indeed, the gap between the stated and realized objectives is quite wide. It might be recalled that by mid-2002 the Lebanese economy was facing a three dimensional problem: a slow, not to say stagnating economy, a rapidly rising public debt (over $31 billion at the end of 2002) and worrying depletion of the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank as a result of its attempts to defend the stability of the Lebanese pound. As of June 2002, the net foreign exchange reserves of central bank were negative. Indeed, the document presented to the meeting by the Lebanese government had warned that unless external support was forthcoming, the corrective measures that the government had planned to put in place would not, on their own, be sufficient to prevent a financial, and ultimately social, crisis. The financial support pledged in Paris provided the government with a financial reprieve it was badly in need of, and the market sentiment changed, permitting the central bank to try to recoup the losses it had suffered in the previous period. Further, it was able to enter into swap arrangements with Lebanese commercial banks for the purpose of reducing the interest rates carried by the exiting stock of public debt. Briefly, the support derived from Paris II, along with domestic measures (decreasing public expenditure and raising revenues) were supposed to reduce the outstanding public debt and the level of the debt burden, (i.e. to reverse the debt dynamics) and lead to a decline in rates on domestic debt and thus give a fresh impetus to economics growth, projected at about 3% for 2003. Prior to Paris II, the government had announced that the 2003 budget deficit was to be reduced to 25% of expenditure (in comparison with over 40%for the previous year) and that privatization measures were being planned.

In fact, a different picture emerged during 2003. While the central bank was able to regain its foreign exchange reserves (it publishes its gross but not net holdings of foreign exchanges), fiscal developments have been discouraging. The fiscal deficit for 2003 is expected to be close to 40% percent of expenditure instead of the announced 25%. The outstanding public debt has continued to grow, standing at $32.8 billion at the end of October 2003 compared with $31.4 billion at the end of 2002. The debt burden has not eased, being estimated at $3.1 billion for 2003, which is roughly the same level for 2002. The hoped for a decline in interest rates on domestic debt was more limited than had been expected. The process of privatization has stalled due to differences of opinion on how best to tackle it. Finally, the projected rate of growth is expected to be less than what had been projected.

Some observers tend to think that political disagreements are the major cause behind the deteriorating situation. While such squabbles may impact negatively economic and financial developments, they are not necessarily the major cause. Let us not forget that in preceding periods that witnessed political harmony, there also occurred a deteriorating financial and economic situation. In fact, the decline in Lebanon’s rate of growth began after 1994 and the rapid growth in public debt began after 1993. I do not wish to minimize the impact of political tensions and disagreements, but I think the problem goes beyond that. To a large extent it is related (along with other factors) to poor institutional performance, which has burred the distinction between public and private interests and constrained the proper formulation and management of economic policy. Had things been different in this regard, the national economy would not have faced the crisis of 2002, which could only be resolved through substantial external support. Of course it is possible that the national economy may pick up in the absence of proper governance, due say to favorable external circumstances, but then there is no guarantee that proper policy formulation would be in place to help cope with existing macro-economic imbalances or to avert potential future crises. While it is important to understand and appreciate the technical aspects of economic policy, it behooves us to place it in the wider political economy picture. Samir Makdisi is a Professor of Economics and the Director of the Institute of Financial Economics at the American University of Beirut

January 1, 2004 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
The Buzz

Need help?

by Fay Niewiadomski January 1, 2004
written by Fay Niewiadomski

Dear President, Director-General (PDG), Do you know just how high you have soared? Could it be that you have reached an altitude with a dangerously rarefied atmosphere? Could it be that your tower has become so high and so secluded that you no longer see or hear what is happening on TERRA FIRMA?

When last did you ask yourself the kind of questions that would help you redefine your destination and adjust your inner compass? When last did you listen to anybody, let alone those who say things you don’t like to hear? Possibly there aren’t many of those around. It is definitely more convenient for subordinates and ‘friends’ to say the ‘right’ thing rather that the ‘honest’ thing. People need their jobs, after all, and even more so when the economy is in deep recession. Of course, you have major problems to cope with. After 20 years of war and stagnation, and another 10 years in intensive care, businesses have been trying to wake up from their comas, new ones have been coming to life and growing so rapidly that there is little time to adjust to practical realities, much less to the psychological changes necessary. Still, others have ‘died’ or are now on their ‘deathbeds.’

I know it is not a very flattering picture. Can it get better? It is possible, if you are prepared to take off your rose-tinted glasses, remove your earplugs, and take a walk through the ‘uncomfortable streets of reality.’ Then, after taking everything in, you make the painful decisions, which may be necessary for your corporate survival.

Let us make a rapid review of where we are and actually have been for quite some time:

1. Thinner and thinner profit margins have triggered an exodus of business from Lebanon to other countries in the region where conditions are more conducive to industrial prosperity. Unemployment and poverty is not the best recipe for the growth of any business.

2. Obsolete rules, regulations and systems are no longer applicable but are still being used to address contemporary challenges. The ‘solution’ is to ‘get around it’ rather than change it. Without change and adaptation, we are not even stagnating but going rapidly backwards.

3. Three generations of staff with very different outlooks and job expectations work in your organization. They have problems communicating with or accepting each other.

4. You have a lot of ‘deadwood’ inherited from the days when it was hard to say ‘no’; and now, although these persons cannot really make added-value contributions to you organization, you are ‘stuck.’ However, they also have nothing to fall back on, so you face a dilemma when considering your options.

5. You face a severe scarcity of the kind of skills needed to compete in today’s markets.

6. There is an absence of systems to regulate organizational growth because the old ones are obsolete and the new ones have yet to be created.

7. Do not forget the misplaced staff that got into jobs they could barely fill when the job market was extremely limited.

8. There are no places for promoting staff because either the ‘deadwood’ or the ‘senior staff’ forms a ‘low and hard’ ceiling. Many of those seniors still have 10 to 15 years before retirement and family-business owners tend not to retire until they die.

9. You also need to restructure the entire organization while keeping it profitable and growing.

10. There are a lot of things for which you don’t have the expert manpower and for which you don’t have the time yourself, and yet these are pressing needs.

11. Long-term survival and growth indicates moving towards a more corporate approach to business and away from ‘family’ business while maintaining an acceptable ‘balance of power’ and control.

12. Don’t forget that you are human too and that you need supportive and flexible management structures, along with a multidisciplinary team of advisors to support you in the increasingly complex technological and market-driven business environment.

13. You may not be able to get high calibre staff due to the steady exodus of qualified young men and women looking for opportunities to fulfil their professional ambitions, because such opportunities seem to be ‘an impossible dream’ for them in purely Lebanese organizations.

The list could be much longer and more detailed, but let’s be practical and stick to essentials.

Tell me, when was the last time you visited the offices next door, or sat down and had a discussion for longer than five minutes with some of your key officers? Have you recently visited any of your widely distributed offices and outlets? Could you be in danger of working to realize a futuristic organization for which you neither have the infrastructure nor the manpower? Strategists, tend to hate details, but they do need to do one of two things to secure the proper growth of their organizations:

1. Take the time to personally look at and listen to what is happening ‘on the ground,’ or

2. Work with a team of experts that complement their capabilities by providing a ‘wide-angle’ and multi-disciplinary view of the situation, so that plans get built on a solid foundation of realities.

When the pressure gets to be too much, we all tend to insulate ourselves by not listening to anybody and by persuading ourselves that we have an intuitive capability or ‘flair’ to tell right from wrong without facts or figures to support our claims. This is a very fragile position from which the PDG plays the role of ‘god’. Remember Oedipus the King? His unrelenting investigations to find his father’s murderer led to the most horrible discovery: he, himself, was the unwitting perpetrator of that crime and of other sins so ugly, he wilfully put out his own eyes, so that he would never again be able to see the light or day or have to look at the embodiment of his own sins. One of the key themes of this classic drama is: “those who climb highest, fall hardest.”

Dear PDG, first of all, get rid of that title. Either keep the ‘P’ and get another competent person to take the ‘DG’ or vice versa, depending on which role you do best. This title is good for small, 50-person organizations, but not for 500-person organizations. The bottleneck you are creating when executives have to wait six months to two years to see you is costing you hundreds of thousands of dollars in wasted production time and opportunity losses in the same denomination. Your decision-making procedure is so cumbersome that it might as well not exist. Can you really afford to keep on ignoring all this? Do you have to have a fire at your door to realize that “all is not well” in your ‘kingdom.’ It would be so much more profitable if you opened your door and took a reality-check before the fire breaks out in earnest.

What are you afraid of? If you prefer a three-lettered title, why don’t you try CEO, chief executive officer, at least that title suggests that you have a support team and that you are still the chief, but you are all doing different things to manage the organization and keep it profitable. Dear PDG, the organization will always be yours. If you distribute your power more wisely, so that the people who are worth keeping stay around to help you make it bigger and better, you will enlarge the ‘cake’ so there will be plenty to go round for everybody. I close with kind regards and best wishes for a speedy awakening. Hopefully, you will wake up before your competitors do in 2004.

Fay Niewiadomski, founder and managing director of ICTN, has over 30 years of experience in management, consulting, researching, and training. She is currently a consultant to some of the largest Lebanese and regional blue-chip companies.

January 1, 2004 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Finance

Beating the odds

by Thomas Schellen January 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Optimism has for years been a prominent feature of Lebanese banking, a central nerve embedded into the firm spine of conservatism that upholds the Lebanese banking and finance industries. The country’s banks all have reasons to ooze optimism, given the sector’s overwhelming importance in the national economy and their performance record of deposit security over decades while the country was drenched in deeply flawed politics, violent internal strife, regional warfare, and occupation.

Even if their business had been stagnant last year, Lebanese banks would have enough reasons to feel emboldened by 2003 for two facts. Namely, that they contributed an important onus to the year’s fiscal stabilization through their profitless subscription to special T-Bills and that the sector emerged unscathed from a fraud and mismanagement crisis centering on Bank Al Madina and its opaque business dealings. But far beyond staying afloat and managing the impact of their sacrifice on the altars of fiscal recovery, banking did not at all see a standstill or slacking of growth in 2003.

Nonetheless, banking representatives exhibited one curious change of perspective. Lebanon’s big commercial banks in earlier years had often harbored concerns over basic size limitations they had in comparison to the region’s big banking corporations or the possibility of international competitors intruding onto their markets. At the end of this year, they came to say that Lebanon is too small a market for the deposits under their management. Prominent members of the finance industry viewed 2003 with satisfaction for sector and companies. “The performance of the Lebanese banking sector was generally good in 2003. Annual profits will maintain their 2002 level, even though third-quarter profits were lower than those of the first quarter,” said Saad Azhari, general manager of the country’s largest bank, BLOM. With year-on-year growth of about 23 % in assets and deposits by the end of September, BLOM Bank performed above the sector’s good overall deposit growth, which is expected to reach 15 % for 2003. “As such, our market share in deposits increased to over 15 %,” Azhari said. “The bank’s profitability remained high, given that the first nine months net profits of 2003 reached $66 million.”

The runners up were equally upbeat. Banque Audi announced its third quarter results, claiming an increase in market share to nearly 12% and having captured over 30% of the sector’s total deposit growth. At Byblos Bank, where year-on-year growth of assets and deposits was reported at 39% and 31% at the end of the third quarter, assistant general manager Semaan Bassil told EXECUTIVE, “Relative to what is going on in the market, our profits are more than adequate.”

While the retail banking leaders may have been fortifying their positions, players in specialized banking and finance houses also could spread word of good tidings. “The main point in 2003 for us was a 17% increase in deposits and 20% growth in profitability, as values BEMO is expecting to close the year with” said Ronald Yazbek, assistant general manager at Banque Europeenne pour le Moyen Orient (BEMO). The bank had been strengthening its specialization on private and corporate banking and already harvested the first fruits of measures such as expanding its private banking team and entering into a partnership with Riyadh-based Banque Saudi Fransi. At another specialized bank, an executive did unhesitatingly express his pleasure over the mid-sized institution’s performance, even as asset growth would be below the sector average. “We are pursuing the opposite strategy, emphasizing profit growth and not asset growth,” he said, “2003 was an excellent year. But 2004 will be challenging.”

Cautious notes dominate the melodies, which many in the choir of banking leaders intone regarding the coming year. “As for 2004, we expect a squeeze in banks’ profitability,” Azhari said, giving as the first main reasons for the lowered outlook that banks’ stock of high-interest T-Bills acquired pre-Paris II would mature in the course of the year, along with high-interest, two-year deposits with the central bank. As a second reason, the BLOM executive named “higher decrease in interest rates on loans and advances as compared to the decrease in interest rates on deposits, thus leading to further drops in banks’ interest margins.”

His bank expects continuous asset growth, he added, “and we will have to redouble our efforts to maintain the same level of profits as in 2003, due to the reasons that apply to the banking sector as a whole.”

Current profit margins cannot be sustained in 2004, concurred Bassil. “Banks will have to be more stringent in provisioning,” he said, “this will result in lower net profits.” Lower growth in the economy and lower profitability would lead Byblos and other banks to rationalize, restructure and consolidate their business. “It will push banks to rationalize faster, more systematically, and assure that every dollar spent will bring a certain level of return.”

“We don’t see any problems, to the contrary, we see very good prospects for the coming year. For us, 2004 is very positive,” Yazbek opined in a vote of fundamental optimism. BEMO is less exposed than others to certain risks, and expects further benefits from the base it created in 2003. More detailed, BEMO anticipates a boost for the business at its Cyprus branch after Cyprus becomes full EU member next May, and also foretold “good synergies” that would arise for the Beirut operation from BEMO’s participation with Saudi-Fransi in the new Syrian banking venture, scheduled to assume operations still before end of 2003. As far as upward expectations for the coming year at BLOM, Azhari pointed out expansion plans in the local and regional markets, including opening two new branches here, a third in Amman, and the launch of the “Bank of Syria and Overseas” in Damascus in early 2004. Bassil similarly emphasized that Lebanese banks would need to utilize growth opportunities in other countries. Bank Byblos’ venture in Sudan signified a pioneering achievement for the entire sector here by marking the first instance in which a Lebanese bank addressed a local market abroad. “Sudan is an important step for us, a test and learning curve,” he said. “We will be putting all our efforts and energy into it over the coming period, and after one or two years, will see the outcome.”

Compared to the banking sector, Lebanon’s financial firms still have large uncharted territories to explore at home. For financial institutions, brokers and trading houses, 2003 was a year of regaining much needed momentum. At independent finance house Financial Funds Advisors (FFA), chairman Jean Riachi sounded exceedingly satisfied in comparison to the past few years. “2003 was a good year for us in terms of increasing our customer account base,” he said. “We have also seen an increase in terms of revenue, knowing that we are coming from a low base because 2001 and 2002 were bad years.” FFA received good responses to funds it was marketing in collaboration with a European issuer, GLG, and could embolden the volume of its money management business. Similar moods prevailed at the Arab Finance Corporation (AFC). “The company is doing much better than last year at this point in time,” said general manager Tarek Ahdab. “AFC is positioned to profit from any upturn in the market. In the past six months, we saw a nice upturn.” Both finance houses implemented new internet-based trading facilities in 2003. FFA launched online currency trading at the end of the summer and AFC introduced two platforms in autumn, AFC Futures and AFC Securities. Even as they expect 2004 to continue the positive trends of the last six months, brokers and finance houses restrain these hopes to their activities on international markets where the outlooks are great. “In my opinion, we are at the beginning of a long-term bull market,” Riachi said, adding as general note of caution “but I could be wrong.”

By contrast, Riachi’s view on domestic financial markets resembles a sheer outpouring of positive will power. “We have not surrendered to the idea that the Lebanese market is dead,” he said. “We desperately believe that it can be revived. It is our raison d’etre.” AFC similarly would see their true edge in the local and regional markets while relying on trading in international markets on behalf of its clients for their bread and butter business. ”We are reasonably optimistic about the country,” Ahdab said, but the firm’s strategy would remain focused on electronic trading platforms and foreign markets, plus continuing to build the client base and increasing advisory business in steady and slow growth. “We are in a tough business in a tough environment, competitor wise, local market wise, and in relation to political and geopolitical risks. Any progress is going to be a slow one.”

With important measures for the regulation of Lebanon’s financial markets still outside of visibility, advocating Beirut as base of a financial firm is still a tough challenge, but the FFA chairman insisted that it would be viable. “Disposable wealth exists and the rate of new account openings [at FFA] is accelerating,” he said. “We believe our model – a small finance house in Beirut serving people for their investments – is working for us. We could even increase it. But unfortunately, we don’t see a great deal of interest in the Lebanese market.”

Where Lebanese bankers and finance house managers echo each other in agreement is their views on the impact of fateful national decisions (or indecisions) on their business. End-of-service reforms and public sector productivity increases are a must for Lebanon, along with privatization and securitization of state assets, Azhari said. “The implications of further delays will negatively affect the level of the public debt and the budget deficit. Consequently, the national and international confidence in the recovery of the Lebanese economy and in finding a permanent solution to the budget deficit’s problem will quickly vanish.” “The last few years were tough. However, it could still get worse,” said Ahdab. “Anything that stops or slows reforms is not going to have a good impact. If debt continues to grow and they never privatize, things could get worse.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Business

Toy story

by Anissa Rafeh January 1, 2004
written by Anissa Rafeh

Providing established brands at an affordable price has helped Toy Market Trading sell an estimated $14 million worth of toys in 2003. This represents 35% of the $40 million local toy market and it has China to thank. Cheaper operating costs have allowed the major international toy manufacturers to be more competitive and Toy Market Trading today imports 90% of its toys from the growing industrial superpower. “You get what you pay for in China,” said Wael Sinno, toy division manager at Toy Market Trading and son of Kamal Sinno, who founded the company in 1973. “All the main US toy brands like Chicco and Mattel have factories there.” The China factor, coupled with a slashing of import tariffs from 25% to 5%, has seen Toy Market Trading experience an 8% year-on-year growth for 2003, despite a wintry economic climate. Toy Market Trading – which distributes its products to 750 retailers, including BHV, Spinneys and Fahd Supermarket – employs a staff of 52 as well eight salesmen covering the Lebanese market and three drivers employed to distribute the goods.

Understandably, 40% to 45% of annual revenues come from Christmas and other holiday sales, but the summer season, from April to August, are also crucial selling months because of the sales of outdoor sports items, including bikes, skateboards and pool accessories, among others.

According to Sinno, an average parent or child will spend approximately $300 to $350 on toys per year, with an average of $10 to $15 doled out per toy. During Christmas, however, the average spent per toy increases to about $25 to $35. Toy Market Trading, however, aims to offer clients a wide variety of affordable toys of good quality by providing two to three brands of similar products in different price ranges. “We cater to all types of budgets, even if that means we compete against our own products,” explained Sinno.

Affordable playthings, like balls and water pistols, and high-end toys, like remote control cars and lifelike dolls, comprise a ratio of 60:40 of cheaper to more expensive toys. Some of Toy Market’s main brands, for example, like Blue Box and Playgo offer products that are as much as 30% cheaper than Fisher-Price toys, even though all three produce similar products for pre-schoolers. Some of the hot selling items this season are “everything funky and trendy,” said Sinno, like the Brats (not distributed by Toy Market Trading), which are the anti-Barbie doll. Toy trends usually last up to a maximum of one to two years, except for classic mainstays like Barbie and Disney toys, which have been successful for years. But coming up with a top seller in toys is becoming increasingly difficult in the computer and internet age, especially with eight- to 10-year olds. As a result, Toy Market Trading has shifted focus on pre-school items, targeting six-month- to five-year-olds. “We now have to be very selective,” said Sinno.

Some of their past successes included the pottery wheel, which sold 12,000 units at about $25 each. Other toy hits imported by the company included an ice-cream maker, and a talking pen made by educational toy brand Clementoni. In addition to their successes, Toy Market Trading has also suffered some misses.

“The pregnant doll was not very well received,” admitted Sinno, who explained that the doll, imported in 1993, came with another plastic baby inside the belly of the main ‘mother’ doll. “It was mainly opposed by religious people.”

Surprisingly, film merchandizing has also not done very well in Lebanon. “HARRY POTTER was a failure and HULK was a disaster,” said Sinno. Only very few films have succeeded in merchandizing in the country. “THE LION KING was a great success – we were selling lions for about three years [when the film was released]. ALADDIN was also a hit.”

Other than dealing with toys that flop, Toy Market Trading and the other importers also have to contend with illegal importers. Sinno admitted that his company loses up to $600,000 a year from smugglers who purchase cheap toys from Dubai – where there are no tariffs – and import them into the country through Syria. In fact, illegal traders are what Sinno consider the greatest competition to his company, and not the three other main importers (Middle East Market, Tamer Freres and Boch).

“Retailers are not going to buy from me at prices 10% higher than smuggled toys. They want the best price they can get and this is understandable,” said Sinno. Sinno explained that the lax laws concerning the toy industry extend further than implementing controls over smuggling. “Lebanon is an open chaotic market that is still underdeveloped with no safety regulations,” he said. As a result of Lebanon’s complete lack of regulations, said Sinno, the Syndicate of Toy Importers and Dealers – which was founded by his father – takes the initiative to not import toys that are unsafe. Most recently, the Syndicate decided to stop importing pellet guns and worked with the ministry of the interior to have them banned. “These guns are made China, but even the Chinese government has banned them,” said Sinno, adding that despite the Lebanese ban, illegal importers have made these dangerous toys available in the country.

Although the smuggling business is indeed lucrative, Sinno has no intention to stray from the straight and narrow. “We go by the book 100%,” he said. It is a policy that has kept them on top of their game, together with a new strategy they have adopted over the past five years to shift the focus on brand loyalty as opposed to just importing Chinese items. “We are now focusing on the brands,” said Sinno, who explained that such an approach, is one way to escape competition and to build loyalty among customers. The strategy seems to be working for the company, which currently enjoys its status as the leading toy importer in the country. As to the secret of their success, Sinno put it simply: “A class products for the most competitive prices.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
  • 1
  • …
  • 663
  • 664
  • 665
  • 666
  • 667
  • …
  • 686

Latest Cover

About us

Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

  • Donate
  • Our Purpose
  • Contact Us

Sign up for our newsletter

[contact-form-7 id=”27812″ title=”FooterSubscription”]

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Instagram
  • Linkedin
  • Youtube
Executive Magazine
  • ISSUES
    • Current Issue
    • Past issues
  • BUSINESS
  • ECONOMICS & POLICY
  • OPINION
  • SPECIAL REPORTS
  • EXECUTIVE TALKS
  • MOVEMENTS
    • Change the image
    • Cannes lions
    • Transparency & accountability
    • ECONOMIC ROADMAP
    • Say No to Corruption
    • The Lebanon media development initiative
    • LPSN Policy Asks
    • Advocating the preservation of deposits
  • JOIN US
    • Join our movement
    • Attend our events
    • Receive updates
    • Connect with us
  • DONATE