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Business

Q&A: Tameem Jad

by Thomas Schellen February 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Bank Al Baraka Lebanon has a new management and new dynamics. The bank, which has five branches here and operates according to Islamic banking principles, is part of the Dalla Al Baraka Group, whose principal shareholder is billionaire Saudi financier, Sheikh Salah Kamel. The group includes banks and asset management operations in the Middle East. Executive spoke to the chairman of Al Baraka Lebanon, Tameem Jad, about the restructuring and development of the bank in Lebanon and the region.

In the middle of last year, you became CEO of Al Baraka Bank in Lebanon. What was the focus of your activities?

Al Baraka bank has been operating here since 1992, but it was not very active. The bank needs a lot of things and for the last six months we have been restructuring. When I started here, I checked all our business: 70% of all our business was Murabaha, which is a finance product. This is not the main concern for Islamic banking. The core of the restructuring activities is focused on developing three [Islamic banking products], MUSHARAKA, MURABAHA and MUDARABA.

Did you make changes in terms of systems and internal structure?

We now have computerized everything through a new system called Midas, for which we bought the license. At the same time, we changed the bank’s people culture. We took graduates from the Lebanese American University, from where we recruited five to ten people, or almost 10% of the staff, for management positions. Of our employees, 70% are new.

Have you also increased your overall staff?

Yes, by 20% in 2003. Very soon it will be 50%, when we open two further branches here in Beirut.

How did you develop Al Baraka’s reach in the market?

One can do many things in Islamic banking. I visited some small industries involved in producing aluminum and plastics, as well as paper recycling, where we could easily do some business. They need machines. We buy the machines, either by financing it or through Musharaka [or partnership financing]. This gives people good opportunities to start very strong business with Africa. We have also designed a new product that offers people a chance to go on the Haj. We can give you this as a Murabaha and received a license from the Shari’a court to sell it. This is one product that we implemented here in Beirut and passed on to all banks in the group.

Are you targeting retail customers and what are your expectations for 2004?

We are aiming, first, at small and medium enterprises. We need to develop our network to at least 20 branches. I expect this year to be very hard. What you have seen here has been achieved in only six months. I spent 16 hours each day in the office. Sometimes I sleep there, to see my aims accomplished.

Do you have further plans?

We are going to do a lot. We are expecting investors to join our bank here and the Tafal Insurance [affiliate company established last year]. From our part of the business, Sheikh Saleh Kamel and I are going to establish a new business that will act as a consultant to all business coming through the bank.

Did you increase the capital of the bank?

Islamic banking is mainly asset management. In Islamic banking the capital is with the investors. Islamic banks need capital but not like traditional banking. The Lebanese central bank knows very well about this. We are going to increase the capital, by the way, to $50 million, and I already own a share in this bank. Would you consider going public?

We are thinking about it now. After working on each of our banks and increasing the capital where necessary, we are expecting in 2004 or the middle of 2005 that the group will start with a private placement. Later, we will move to an Initial Public Offering. We have many people who are willing to go to the IPO. Did the Al Madina scandal create any pressure on your relations with customers or investors?

I don’t know what happened at Al Madina but it did not affect our business. Since I came here, my business has increased more than 50%. Saudi shareholders are increasing their business in Lebanon because they believe the country will improve. You have liquidity in the market, and it needs investment outlets. I think what’s happening in the world now will give people better opportunities to establish friendships and relations, and encourage Lebanon and others. Hopefully, peace will come to the region.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Saudi Arabia: Kingdom under fire

by Claude Salhani February 1, 2004
written by Claude Salhani

Last month the Saudi Arabian authorities ordered the removal of ‘poor boxes’ from outside mosques in an effort to curtail the flow of money to what the Saudi government calls “terrorist organizations.” The move comes after indications that individual contributions to Islamic organizations have greatly declined after the implementation of strenuous controls to curtail the flow of money to extremist groups. However, it appears that not all sourcing has been cut-off. Just this January, US federal banking regulators are looking into the Saudi Arabian Embassy’s bank accounts in Washington, DC, examining numerous transactions, totaling tens of millions of dollars in cash that weren’t properly reported, according to a Wall Street Journal report published on January 14.

The newspaper states, “While the US investigation into the Saudi accounts was previously known, the discoveries at the Riggs National Corporation show it is far broader than previously disclosed.” The inquiry, which began in 2002, initially involved only a few thousand dollars, thought to be tied-in to the September 11, 2001 perpetrators. “Now,” the paper reports, “investigators are trying to account for millions of dollars in hard-to-trace cash.”

The paper writes that it is unusual for the US to scrutinize the finances of a close ally such as Saudi Arabia. “But since September 11, the Justice and Treasury departments have been trying to track the origins and destinations of money brought into the US to fund schools, mosques, charities and Islamic groups, some of which are considered extremist by the US” This does not mean that the embassy’s money deliberately funded these groups, but it does cause concern to US authorities that want to keep a tighter lid on transfer of funds originating from potential supporters of such extremist organizations. The embassy ‘incident’ typifies the problems facing Saudi Arabia, but it may just be the tip of the iceberg. Today, for the first time since its creation in 1902 when Abd al-Aziz bin Abd al-Rahman al-Saud captured Riyadh and set out on his 30-year campaign to unify the Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia faces its most serious threat. Its once-thriving economy propelled by the 1970s oil boom is stagnating, affecting its society as never before.

The one-time social pressure valve – religion – offered to a society where socializing among mixed sexes is banned, where cinemas are non-existent, where alcohol is forbidden, where women are still veiled and considered second-class citizens, where political parties and elections are absent and democracy is unheard of, is now coming back to bite the government. Since oil was first discovered in the 1930s, bringing unimaginable riches and practically unlimited resources to the country, the ruling House of Saud had hoped they could forever live in a quasi-utopian world, far from the problems of the West. The Saudi rulers wished to market their oil to the West, but at the same time shut it out, thereby safeguarding the country from foreign influences. They believed the mighty petro-dollar could buy anything and distance all ills, be they political, socio-economic or any of the other turbulences that modernity unavoidably brings with it.

Now Saudi Arabia is now waking up to a very different reality. For decades, many people in the Kingdom refused to admit that all was not quite right. That beneath the apparently tranquil façade of a society, where the state took it upon itself to provide free cradle-to-grave healthcare and free education, compiled with no taxation thanks to generous oil revenues, resentment, nevertheless, has long been brewing. Turmoil, rather than oil, is now emerging from those desert sands. The reason for Saudi Arabia’s new internal disorder, brought to the world’s attention by the recent wave of terrorist activity that has ripped the until-now quiet country of about 20 million, is two-fold: Islamic fundamentalism and a growing disenchantment among the young, exacerbated by a decline in the economy.

Over the years, affluent Saudis, including some members of the royal family, financed madrassas in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia as well as Western Europe and North America, thinking it would appease the Wahhabi fundamentalists, who would leave them alone back in Saudi Arabia. Some contributions, such as that from the wife of the Saudi Ambassador to Washington, were made without the knowledge of where the monies would end up and it is these transactions that are now under scrutiny by the US authorities. In addition to stopping the flow of funds to possible terror groups, Saudi authorities have realized the need to curtail the preaching of fundamentalists. According to one well-informed report, more than 2,000 Saudi imams who advocate hard-line fundamentalism have been removed from the pulpit. About 1,500 are being reeducated or have been jailed. Bin Laden, originally a Saudi citizen, is one of the many disenchanted Saudis who have now taken his fight into the streets of Saudi cities. The reason behind his hate of America, as demonstrated by the horrendous September 11, 2001 attacks on New York City and Washington, DC, is due to the unfaltering support given by the United States to the Saudi royal family.

Many of these disaffected young men – like bin Laden – have turned to religion to vent their frustrations. Today, one should not brush aside the possibility that Saudi Arabia may turn radical. Conditions in the country are ripe for growing dissent to continue to rise to a perilous level, unless the situation is immediately addressed.

Yet the answer to the Saudi dilemma is not simple. The United States, who keeps pushing for greater democracy in the Middle East, ironically, might not find it entirely in its national interest if free elections were to be held in Saudi Arabia tomorrow. Many analysts believe the majority of the vote would be won by bin Laden supporters, turning the world’s largest oil supplier into an anti-American, anti-Western strict Islamic theocracy.

The perceived corruption in the royal House of Saud does nothing to help the royal family’s cause; many Saudis, particularly the fundamentalists, frown heavily upon the jet-setting life style of the royal princes and what they call their ‘decadent’ Western habits. Additionally, the growing numbers of university graduates, who are injected yearly into Saudi society, but with no prospects of decent employment, add to the growing resentment of the royal family.

Much of the disenchantment stems from the country’s youth, many of whom, despite free higher education, remain unemployed and see little, if any, prospect of a brighter future as long as the status quo remains unchanged. The under-25 year-olds now comprise a clear majority in the kingdom. Over the years, this resentment has matured and developed into an aversion to the lifestyle portrayed by the country’s 7,000 princes, who, on average, receive each a $500,000 yearly stipend. This money, critics say, is wasted on luxury items, extravagant villas strewn over Marbella, the Cote d’Azur and other chic resorts. Many Saudis begrudge the princes’ excessive lifestyles that would make even the most extravagant Hollywood star appear tame by comparison.

The Saudi royal household’s spending money for the 24,000 members, its princes, spouses and assorted offspring comprised, hovers around a $3 billion annual budget.

Meanwhile, the official line in Riyadh was that everything was golden in a country that prided itself on its low crime rate and strict Islamic codes, where shari’a – Qoranic law – was rigorously enforced. Even after September 11, some members of the Saudi ruling class continued to reject the possibility of terrorist striking at home, refusing to bring change to a failed educational system that helped produce some of these fundamentalists.

Even after the September 11, 2001 attacks, some Saudis refused to acknowledge the fact that 15 of the 19 hijackers were fellow citizens. But the recent surge of homegrown terrorism in their own streets has suddenly woken the Saudi authorities to the fact that immediate action is needed.

Recent bombings, including shoot-outs with police forces in Saudi cities – a previously unheard of phenomenon in the kingdom – have made the Saudis realize they cannot remain immune to terrorism. For years, some members of the royal family wrongly believed they could "buy protection" from fundamentalists, by paying them off through generous financial donations and in building madrassas.

Late last year the Saudis prevented an attack in the holy city of Mecca, but suicide bombers, believed to be members of Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida network, blew themselves up in a residential complex close to the king’s palace, killing 17 people and injuring about 120. This attack followed the temporary closing of the US embassy and consulates in Riyadh.

Today, under the quiet desert sands a revolution of sorts is brewing. The May 2003 attacks acted as a rude reality check. It was their September 11. It made them realize that changes had to be made or else risk continuing upheaval, and even worse.

The solution to the country’s mounting problems lies in a succession of quick reforms that should be adapted at all levels of Saudi society. The most pressing is in education, where the curricula need to be transformed and updated in order to bring it in line with 21st century learning. Women need to be given greater rights, and the people need to be gradually introduced to democracy by giving them a share in the running of their country. The other burning issue, of course, is restraining militant Islamic activism. At a lecture given at the American University of Kuwait on January 13, Marwan Muasher, Jordanian Minister of Foreign Affairs, who had previously served as Ambassador of Jordan to the United States of America, stressed the need for political reform in the region. "The Arab World needs to adopt a new political order to be able to address ever-increasing changes on the global arena. Anyone who calls for political reforms and more freedoms in the Arab world is condemned and branded an ally of Washington. Not so long ago Arab experts (through the UNDP) outlined problems in Arab societies which included lack of freedom, outdated educational system, human right abuse and trampling on the rights of women". Political reform, Muasher stated, should not be limited to one country alone but implemented in the whole region and should not be delayed; otherwise economic development without corresponding political advancement would be meaningless." He added, "Political reforms are needed now because they may come later at a higher price". “The core of the reform and its success or failure will depend on the Royal Family’s unified efforts to define Islam and delegitimize its more extreme elements,” says Ambassador Edward S. Walker Jr., president of the Middle East Institute in Washington. Walker, who has served as American ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Israel and was assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs from 1999 to 2001, believes that “There is a quiet revolution going on in Saudi Arabia. No one knows its depth, its breadth or its ultimate impact, but the reform effort is very real and is probably unstoppable.”

One can only hope that the revolution continues to be a quiet one and revolves in the right direction.

(Claude Salhani is the foreign editor and political analyst with United Press International in Washington, DC.)

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Playing it safe

by Thomas Schellen February 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

To the credit of the aviation sector, December’s deadly crash of the Union des Transports Africains plane appears not to have damaged consumer confidence in the region’s leading airlines. Established carriers and Arab niche operators all agreed that they are in a different league to a company like UTA and Flash and have nothing to fear. “From my perspective, the incident barely dented the customer confidence of Middle East travelers,” said Horm Irani, general manager of ExecuJet Middle East. “There are a number of new carriers establishing themselves in the region and doing well by all accounts. Current carriers such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and MEA continue to flourish and grow and certainly demand for our services continues to remain strong.” The disaster could have some negative bearing on commercial aviation in Lebanon, at least in the short term. Sector companies, until now, were commonly full of praise for the supportiveness of Lebanon’s government and aviation authorities. But following the back-to-back crashes, industry sources said the government is likely to be extra careful in scrutinizing applications for charter licenses. These measures, while frustrating for those companies eager to do business, can only lead to increased consumer confidence in the long-term. The UTA crash, or more likely the public accusations and rumor mongering about alleged culpability of local aviation officials, seem to have forced public servants to hunker down. “The civil aviation is becoming more restrictive,” observed Fadi Saab, chairman of Lebanon’s cargo airline, TMA. “I hope that fear of responsibility and blame will not become an obstacle for developing the role of Beirut Airport.” Of course, in every tragedy there is a lesson of human responsibility to be learnt, and fulfillment of this responsibility can never be emphasized enough. This lesson applies especially to those who do things the “Lebanese way,” meaning that congenial ability for making impromptu arrangements and circumventing obstacles, even if they are essential operating rules and safety procedures. In plain words, application of standards is a permanent need, and stakeholders in land and sea transportation here have still much to accomplish in that respect. Enforcement of vehicular safety standards in land transportation, for instance, this year in the infancy of its implementation, remains under-appreciated. Opposition to moderate requirements on technical and environmental soundness of vehicles used in public transport is a disturbing symptom of immaturity, lacking awareness and missing education. Working hour regulations for truckers and the safety and environmental inspections of their heavy vehicles, which is commonplace in developed countries, have yet to be implemented. From taxi drivers to enforcement officials and role models – including politicians, schoolteachers, driving instructors and reporters – patterns of demonstrating awareness and setting examples are rarely seen.

In the goings and comings at Beirut Port, observers also have spotted lingering disrespect of proper standards. As far as crooked inspectors closing their eyes to certain problems on safety inspection lists, “corruption still exists in the port,” said Ian Wilson, a consultant and resident expert on maritime safety. He and other insiders knew tales of unsound, leaking and creaking equipment, hushed-up incidents, problems with inexperienced pilots, and criminal attempts to alter an accident scene after a ship fire.

Lately, the safety awareness and compliance among Lebanese ship owners has been progressing, Wilson said, with the ministry of transport and port authorities making efforts to improve the enforcement of standards, by stepping up scrutiny of ship certifications and seafarer certifications. According to the expert, this positive development is further helped along by increasingly tighter international requirements for maritime safety, the latest increment being impending measures aiming to safeguard ships against use in terrorist attacks. Overall, however, in context of ambitions to assume a stronger role for Lebanon’s shipping and transportation industry, domestic safety issues and regulatory standards deserve still increasing consideration from all public and private sector participants. It would be of even greater advantage, if these standards could be implemented in conjunction with a regional regulatory framework also involving harmonization of customs procedures and transit standards. As far as these frameworks for borderless transportation within the Levant are concerned, the present situation is rife with problems. Industry members frequently don’t like to speak up about the issue but there is no mistaking the reality of protectionist and self-serving behavior of governments in the Levant that hinder competition and evolution of both trade and transportation. Lebanon is no exception to the practice but, as the realm’s smallest country, it suffers the largest disadvantages from the situation. “Syrian traders are forbidden from using Lebanese ports to import or export goods, because their government wants to make money at its ports,” lamented a shipping manager. The complaint is as common in the industry as the request to not be identified for making it. Latest developments in the area of customs harmonization promise some but not total relief. About half a year ago, Syria unified its tax and documentation requirements and reduced the levies on transit cargo. Lebanese freight forwarders uniformly lauded this development as very beneficial. Only last month, in response to increased cargo traffic caused by the growth of trade and aid shipments to Iraq, Jordan decided to temporarily suspend restrictions on transiting containers shipped through ports other than Aqaba. The Jordanian, Syrian and Lebanese ministers of transport have furthermore conferred about more permanent measures to improve the regulations for overland transit shipping involving the three countries. The negotiations would not mean that protectionism will vanish in the foreseeable future – Syrian traders will still be prohibited from using Lebanese ports for their imports and exports – but they could create a viable regulatory environment to give Lebanon’s ports, shipping agents and freight forwarders a decent share of the cargo business to Iraq. According to Abdel Hafeez Kayssi, director general for sea and land transport at the ministry of transport and public works, the work on better regulations is progressing. “We are expecting a Memorandum of Understanding to be signed by March,” he said, “in preparation for further steps.” While they are waiting for better regulations, Lebanese forwarders simply remain applying “the Lebanese way.” As Syria requires payment of a cargo tax for all goods entering the country, one explains, “truckers cross the border with two sets of invoices. He hands one to Syrian customs; the other stays in the driver’s cabin and is for the customer in Iraq.”

By under-declaring the value of the cargo, the forwarders found a way to pay minimal transit tax to Syria, presumably with some support from WASTA-appreciating control personnel. And since the freight does not remain in the country, it does not trouble the waters. The system has worked well for the past six months of Iraqi reconstruction, as customs and import taxes on the Iraqi border were suspended. The UTA crash was a veritable catastrophe. Apart from devastating hundreds of families, it led to an official investigation of the disaster and caused an avalanche of wild accusations in the media aimed at any political opponent they alleged to be linked to the plane and who violated their responsibilities by allowing it near Lebanese airspace. However, cool reflection will win out and there is unlikely to be any indictment – legal or moral – that this accident was a symptom of any flaws in Lebanese air safety practices. Lebanon is a signatory of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) rules and if the country is to be blamed for allowing the plane to land in Beirut, then similar culpability must be leveled at Dubai, where the plane frequently landed. As one aviation expert put it, “much worse planes are out there flying and if this plane had not been overloaded it would still be flying today.” Human responsibility for the catastrophe of UTA flight 141 clearly existed. All indicators, however, suggest that, morally and legally, this guilt rests with the pilot and with the airline, which sanctioned the take-off even though the plane was overloaded. Take-off crashes due to overloading of passenger jets are rare. The Aviation Safety Network, which maintains a global data-base of all reported accidents and occurrences involving loss of aircraft since 1945, lists only nine overload crashes, two of them with a higher casualty count than the UTA crash. Things are seldom as clear-cut as they appear to be in this case. When the first takeoff attempt had to be aborted, the plane’s owner had no right to interfere with the flight management. As sole authority in the cockpit, the pilot would have had the legal obligation to dismiss the owner’s crazed demand. Furthermore, any control tower worth its salt would have intervened after the first aborted take-off.

The two men with the burden of not preventing the crash both survived. Each will have to be held accountable, and each will have to bear the knowledge of their blame for causing loss of lives. To the large rest of air travelers, a lesson of this disaster suggests that individually, one should never dismiss common sense. If you see a row of folding chairs added at the back of a passenger jet, just refuse to buckle up and get off, even if it means re-bribing the authorities to allow millions of dollars of hard currency to walk out of their country.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Waiting to offload

by Thomas Schellen February 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

The matter of greatest obvious concern for stakeholders in sea and overland transportation is the new container terminal at Beirut Port. Idle since its completion some three years ago, the $200 million project’s commencement of operations depends on two factors: contracting an operator and installation of essential equipment, like the so-called gantry cranes.

Three of these giant cranes, capable of lifting containers between cargo vessels and shore-side facilities, have been manufactured in China at a cost of $27 million. The contract also includes six smaller, mobile gantry cranes and other equipment. Representatives of Lebanon’s shipping industry are eagerly awaiting the arrival of the cranes. “They were scheduled to arrive here in February or March but an agreement between the Port of Beirut and the supplier has been made to postpone delivery until May,” said Elie Zakhour, president of the International Chamber of Navigation in Lebanon.

Sector companies are nervous about any sign of delays in delivery of the cranes, as it highlights the fact that the tender for an operator contract is overdue and is reminiscent of the derailment of the container terminal’s start in 2001. At that time, the Dubai Port Authority (DPA) bowed out of a contract to operate the terminal, and shipping insiders believe that a key factor in the cancellation was problems between the port and a group of contractors who hitherto have been entrusted with handling cargo movements.

These operators are independent firms, which the Lebanese government invited at the end of the war to provide stevedore services when the authorities needed to bring the port back to life in the fastest and least costly manner available. The contractors were rewarded for their commitment by receiving a 30% share of the cargo fees collected by the port. This, said Zakhour, “provided the equipment owners with a total revenue of $15 million over the past 13 years” – but port and operators never signed a formal contract that would regulate their status and cover questions of canceling their services. Almost unavoidably, the current matter of contention is compensations. It was over this issue that stevedore companies last month staged a one-day walkout that paralyzed cargo movements at Beirut Port. Observers contend that similar disputes between the port and the same operators – whom some industry insiders call “the Mafia” – played heavily into the fact that DPA stepped out of its contract. And they are asking whether the interests of this smaller group again could, by using their alleged ‘pipelines of influence,’ prevail over the common good. Following the DPA withdrawal, cargo handling at Beirut Port continued in a fashion that made visiting specialists gasp at how well the operation was working – but only given that the work is done by using the methods of a bygone shipping era. The problem is, the system is simply unsuited for large ships. “No shipping line is interested to come to Beirut as long as there is no container terminal,” said Zakhour. “When we have the terminal, Beirut will have a chance to become a transshipment hub.” Completion of the container terminal will boost capacity of Beirut Port to be able to handle 500,000 twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEU), a theoretical increase of about 70% over its 2003 cargo volume that was in the magnitude of 300,000 TEU. But more important than this increase in capacity would be improvements in service quality and reduction in turnaround times for big vessels. Undoubtedly, even the best imaginable boom of Lebanese domestic consumption and exports could not provide Beirut port with the volumes and turnover of a major hub. To some operators, the facts that the port generates income and operates with some degree of efficiency thus serve as arguments to justify the current situation as acceptable. In the eyes of others, repeated postponements spell another lost chance for each day that the terminal remains idle. There is but one way to test whether Beirut would be able to succeed in competing for sea-to-sea transshipment business, and that is offering the services of a functional terminal.

What adds further spice to the situation is the recent upturn in cargo movements to Iraq. “Sea to land transshipment has much improved,” Zakhour said. “When the US/UK-led coalition made war on Iraq, we were afraid that impact on shipping would be disastrous, but it is now better than before the war. Under Saddam, everything in Iraq was state controlled whereas today, private importers rule the scene.”

Although much of the increase in deliveries to Iraq last year was in shipping cars, members of the industry view growth of container forwarding in 2004 as a sure thing. The main reason for the optimism is based on the situation in other ports, mainly the Jordanian Aqaba. It is the primary gateway for shipments into Iraq and favored as an ally by the Americans, but traffic at the port has become so intense that carriers have been leveling high congestion charges for sailing to Aqaba.

From the Syrian ports, Latakia and Tartous, shipments to Iraq have similar overland transit times as from Lebanon. But in these ports congestion reportedly is also becoming an issue, thus opening new prospects for Beirut and Lebanon’s second port of call, Tripoli, which also saw cargo business pick up in the second half of 2003. (Like Tartous, Tripoli Port is undergoing extension and modernization, financed by a development loan from the European Investment Bank.)

Trucking a container from Beirut to Baghdad currently costs between $1,200 and $1,800, depending on the circumstances, said Nabil Sakr, managing director of DAS Express, a firm with experience in overland forwarding to Iraq. He estimated shipping costs via Tartous to be about 25% lower, but claimed greater speed and expertise in Beirut could make up the difference for shippers. DAS management expects an increase of Iraq-bound container shipments via Beirut by 500% to 600% for this year alone. But even after such an increase, other ports would still be far ahead in their throughput of Iraq cargo. “What we are getting is almost peanuts,” Sakr said. Based on the reasoning that Beirut can equalize its higher port fees by already offering a faster turnaround time to ships and better service than the bureaucracy-heavy Syrian ports, Lebanon’s premier port could push its advantages further by offering lower rates and achieving additional improvements on service quality and speed – tasks for which a well-run, spanking new container terminal would come in more than handy.

A third industry concern and opportunity for developing the Lebanese shipping location is as a logistics hub. The crux of such an operation lies in the ability to provide large international manufacturing companies with a regional distribution base, from where adjacent markets are supplied and serviced.

International express shipping and logistics company DHL has already taken steps that could assist Beirut in assuming a stronger role in its regional network: it has set up new overland routes and their Lebanon operation has just received approval for expanding its facilities at Beirut International Airport by 3,000 square meters. The expansion involves a capital expenditure of $2 million and the hiring of some 40 new staff over the next three years, country manager John Chedid told EXECUTIVE.

He attributed much of Lebanon’s growth potential in providing logistics to improvements in the regulatory and customs environment. “When you have facilities and good customs practices, you start attracting transit material,” he said. “New procedures in customs have made everything clearer and much more transparent. If I dare make a prediction, 2004 will see further progress towards a much better regulatory environment.” One crucial improvement in operating conditions for international and domestic logistics firms is definitely in the making. Exploiting the geographical and skilled labor advantages of Beirut for providing logistics services to any of the big names in manufacturing requires a free zone environment that permits repackaging and distribution of shipments – which previously had not been possible under Lebanese regulations. However, EXECUTIVE learned the rulebooks for Lebanon’s free zones have just been rewritten. The revised rules, allowing freight forwarders to establish facilities in the free zones and implement regional distribution activities, are in the final approval phase at time of writing this article.

Joseph Harb, president of Beirut Cargo Center, told EXECUTIVE the new regulations will open tremendous opportunities for logistics providers not only for his company, but also for the economy at large. “If you want a big manufacturer like Addidas or Siemens to open an office in Lebanon, allow freight forwarders into the free zones,” he said. Additionally, the move would serve to promote Beirut Port internationally, Harb enthused. “Ports and customs authorities do not promote the free zones,” he said, “the freight forwarders are the ones to promote them.”

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Young blood: Al Balad’s big debut

by Anthony Mills February 1, 2004
written by Anthony Mills

There’s a new newspaper in town and it’s in your face – television, billboards, vans, in other newspapers, sales people in the street, your doorstep, even the office. Al Balad’s marketing is aggressive; with start up costs of $6 million, its investors are not taking any chances, especially with a daily print run of 65,000 copies.

“We have a very serious marketing plan and a very serious business plan, and it shows,” said Marwan Dimas, the newspaper’s general manager. “We think there is room in Lebanon for a new newspaper that has a different approach to news and it is clear that this is a serious newspaper, not just a bunch of people publishing anything.”

One has to be a serious player – at least financially – in Lebanon, to set up a paper because it involves buying an existing state-set number of licenses, which cost several hundred thousand dollars. Insiders say that it cost Dimas and his fellow shareholders $300,000 to buy the defunct title Al Balad from ex-parliamentary speaker Hussein Husseini.

Dimas acknowledged the price was wholly unreasonable for a license. “Although journalism in Lebanon is supposedly free, you cannot obtain your own license. You have to buy an existing one for several hundred thousand dollars. This restricts people’s ability to open a newspaper. The existing licenses are rare and those who have them hold onto them,” said Dimas. “In a free country, everyone should be able to open a newspaper.”

Despite these obstacles, the Al Balad team is out to smash circulation records and shatter the hidebound assumption that Lebanon’s total daily print circulation figure will never surpass 60,000. To achieve that goal, Al Balad aims to overcome religious and political barriers that it believes has created this apparent readership ceiling.

“The newspaper industry has a complex political and religious scene. All the newspapers have their political identities and this automatically reduces the target audience, or target group of readers. Nobody in Al Balad has any local political agenda,” said Dimas, admitting that newspaper’s editorial line is pro-Gulf countries as a number of the shareholders in Integra, the marketing and advertising arm of Al Balad, are Kuwaiti.

The emphasis is on marketing, Dimas reiterated, a domain hitherto neglected by Al Balad’s Lebanese competitors. “Can you name the marketing manager of any of the daily newspapers in Lebanon?” he asked. “They don’t have a marketing manager. They have commercial managers to sell advertising but they don’t have anyone to market their newspapers. They don’t sell subscriptions. They don’t have street vendors. There is a lot missing in their marketing activity and tools. There is no tactical marketing.”

Al Balad, on the other hand, has adopted a marketing strategy that they are confident ultimately allow it to reap “huge” advertising revenues, declared Dimas. The paper’s aggressive home subscription campaign constitutes a starting block of 50,000 subscribers within a year – a tally that Dimas is sure will be attractive to advertisers. Dimas maintained that this was a realistic goal, but conceded that it would be no easy task to get more people in Lebanon to read.

“Lebanese people don’t have the habit of reading a newspaper every day,” he lamented. In an effort to spur such a habit, Al Balad has given away 50,000 free three-month subscriptions. Overall, the paper has embarked on a major advertising campaign involving television, billboards, radio, and direct marketing activities – Al Balad salespeople have distributed free copies and promotional items across Beirut using funds set aside under a $500,000 advertising and marketing launch budget. Dimas said a little less than that amount would be spent on marketing and advertising every year until expenditure stabilized at around 2% of total revenues. He preferred not to give a figure for projected revenues, saying that people would regard it as totally unrealistic and think he was crazy. He said he expected 20% of revenues to come from subscription fees and the remainder from sales and advertising. In general, he said, a newspaper in Lebanon needs to make about $500,000 a month to break even.

Finding an unexploited niche market in the lighter side of the news, Al Balad is not bound by the confines of a serious image, unlike Lebanon’s other major newspapers. “They cannot accept the light-hearted stories, the light-hearted layout. It’s against their fundamental principles of credibility, seriousness, and traditionalism. This has constituted an opportunity for us,” said Dimas.

With its modern, self-effacing image, Al Balad is unpretentious, meaty and speaks to the whole family, claims Dimas. Its dozens of pages comprise a lifestyle, sports, economy, business, and politics – both regional and international – section, and its layout is novel and refreshing. True to its innovative image, the paper places special emphasis on the Lifestyle section, the eight pages of which cover entertainment, nutrition, beauty, health and fitness, fashion, food, music, and art. Less attention is paid to politics.

“You don’t usually find our kind of content in the local newspapers,” said Dimas. “Al Balad is like a daily magazine. We aim to have less politics. It is part of our strategy to have a maximum of 30% to 40% of our content related to politics.”

Pressed to elaborate, Dimas said: “In politics, I believe we cannot compete with the opinion-leading newspapers of Lebanon, such as An Nahar and As Safir. Our strategy is to compete elsewhere.” He acknowledged that Al Balad’s conscious accentuation of the light-hearted could initially lead some people to dismiss the paper as trivial. “Just because we place greater emphasis on the light-hearted does not mean we are not a serious newspaper. We tackle all issues very seriously. You can tackle the marriage of Britney Spears as seriously as you tackle any other issue.”

Overall, Al Balad employs 200 staff, from printing press technicians and delivery boys to salespeople. The peper’s owners claim to employ 55 journalists, most of whom are hungry, fresh, young graduates, attuned to the youthful, energetic pulse the paper is attempting to generate. Editors enjoy an established pay scale scheme, which starts at $500 for the least experienced, and reaches $1,200 for the most experienced.

As an entity, Al Balad encompasses two companies: the newspaper – which is run by Dimas (general manager), a chairman, Ahmad Badrani, and an editor-in-chief, Charles Charbel, formerly of Al Hayat – and Integra, a company contracted by Al Balad to take care of the marketing, advertising, sales, distribution, and printing.

The stakes for Al Balad are definitely high: running a daily newspaper costs about $5 to $6 million a year. Although the paper’s shareholders don’t expect a profit after the first year and have embraced a five-year business plan, they will be looking for early reassurances that their hefty financial investments will pay off in this most difficult of markets.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Q&A: Hassan Kraytem

by Executive Contributor February 1, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

Is it fair to say that the port has been performing reasonably well in 2003?

Yes. Beirut Port has been performing well with regards to imports and total revenues, which increased from $71 million in 2002 to $75 million last year.

A much talked-about issue is the project of putting the port’s container terminal into business. Is the tender for finding an operator progressing?

It is ready. We have completed the tender documents, and they are now with the minister for final approval.

How long until an operator would be able to come in?

In the tender documents, we specified one-and-a-half months to receive responses from interested operators, but we think that we should extend that to perhaps two months. For the phase from awarding the contract, we have scheduled three to four months for the operator to mobilize and start operations. In total, we are talking about half a year.

For what duration will the contract be awarded?

It would be for 10 years, with a possible five-year extension.

A second big issue regarding the container terminal is necessary equipment, which you ordered from China. Are these gantry cranes ready for delivery?

Delivery of all the equipment we bought has already begun. I think the gantry cranes are on a boat and just left China. They require two-and-a-half months at sea because they have to go all the way around Africa. Then they require another two-and-a-half to three months of erection and testing, which, like the operator tender, brings us to the middle of the year.

Did you request a delay of delivery?

There was a delay by two months. Delivery was originally scheduled for end of March. However, we did not actually delay delivery. We pinpointed some issues in a punch list for modifications and we requested the manufacturer to change most of them in China.

Does this delivery provide all the equipment needed for the terminal?

Ideally, we should have four gantry cranes and not three, which means that ideally we should have eight Rubber-Tyred Gantry cranes [RTG] and not six. We opted to buy the strict minimum as an initial step and allow ourselves to buy more when need arises. In our contract, we have an option to buy one more fixed gantry crane and two more RTGs.

Steel prices have gone up. Could that alter prices under the contract option?

The option does not allow for a price hike due to steel price fluctuation. The only price hike is on the euro side. When we signed the option, 25% are to be rescheduled taking into regard euro appreciation.

Considering the total cost of $27 million for the equipment under delivery, you got a good deal?

We got an excellent deal.

As far as construction of the container terminal, is it correct that the total capital investment amounted to $200 million?

It was less than that and it was more than just the container terminal. The investment was closer to $180 million and it included rehabilitation of some of the old parts of the port.

Are the $27 million for the new cranes included in the $180 million or on top of that?

I believe, on top.

Did it incur specific costs for the terminal not to be operational for a period of several years?

Major cost would have been interest expenses, but the port self-financed this project and basically there were no interest-bearing loans involved. We have some maintenance costs, but those are peanuts.

But how would you assess the cost of lost opportunity from the delay?

I believe the cost of opportunity loss is in the extra services that we could have offered, mostly in transshipment, and in the quality of the service that we could have achieved. What the dollar figure for that is, who knows?

Do you consider attracting large carriers for transshipment to Beirut as a realistic vision?

I have been talking a lot with carriers, and the vision varies. There are those who think that it is absolutely impossible to have transshipment here, and then it ranges all the way to those who think that carriers will be lining up to transship out of Beirut. I think if we can sell that product at a good price we will have some transshipment but I don’t believe that we should aim at becoming a transshipment hub the way Dubai or some other ports are. Further expansion of Beirut Port would be very expensive and I do not believe that transshipment revenue would be able to cover such expenses.

Did the delay harm the concept of becoming a transshipment hub?

Today, we have very little, not to say no, transshipment cargo. The studies we have undertaken show that transshipment starts very slowly and tends to increase with time. So, a three year delay is costing some money, but not a lot.

Can you confirm that freight forwarders will be able to establish operations in the Port’s free zone?

Yes, we have been working very closely with customs on that issue and we just modified the rules for the free zone in order to allow logistics companies to operate inside the free zone. This is especially for re-packing, handling cargo for third parties, and to undertake stock control for major companies, in order to make Beirut a center of distribution for the entire Middle East area. This is much more interesting than transshipment alone.

Last month, the port saw disputes and compensation demands over termination of stevedore contracts with the equipment contractors that have been handling cargo at the port. Would you be able to comment on the validity of their demands?

While I understand their demands and might be sympathetic to some of them, legally speaking, I cannot resolve them from where I stand.

Could you give an estimate on the value of their equipment and what amounts these companies might have invested in the past five years?

Since we are not legally bound or allowed to provide any compensation, we didn’t look into this matter. Just as everyone, I have heard of astronomical amounts of money that are supposedly being demanded. I can only say that I think the numbers I heard are far exaggerated.

February 1, 2004 0 comments
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Finance

Q&A: Riad Salameh

by Thomas Schellen January 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Elected as banker of the year by EUROMONEY magazine, Riad Salame, govenor of the central bank, has been a guarantor for the authenticity of Lebanon’s monetary policy of safeguarding currency stability and relying on market forces. EXECUTIVE asked Mr. Salame about the state of the banking and financial sectors at the end of the year, the impact of the Al Madina scandal, and his outlook for 2004.

E: How do you evaluate the period in terms of fulfilling the commitment and promises of Paris II, one year post the event?

RS: Paris II recreated confidence in the financial markets. Interest rates saw an important decline. In 2003, interest rates are 50% to 60 % lower than in the previous year. The confidence and positive dynamic allowed Lebanon to issue debt instruments in the local currency with three-year duration. That was the first time it was possible to do this and this was done through the CDs [Certificates of Deposit]. The other achievements in the financial sector were the different initiatives taken by the central bank to reorganize its portfolio. These various initiatives allowed savings in 2003 of more than $800 million and will create more than $1.2 billion [of savings] in the year 2004. Despite the fact that the debt has increased in 2003 to reach around $33 billion by yearend, the servicing of the debt for 2004 is going to be less by around 20% compared to what was achieved in 2003, and less than it was estimated to be before the success of Paris II, by almost 40%. On the government side, more work has to be done. The budget in 2003, according to the ministry of finance, has a deficit equal to 37% of the total budget, while predictions were for around 30%. The 2004 budget is showing a deficit of around 30%, which is good compared to what was achieved in 2003, but not in line with the decline of the deficit that was promised to bring down the dynamic of the debt. On the other side, promises of privatization and securitization were not realized this year.

E: Is the delay in privatization by at least another couple of months a threat to Paris II and what has been achieved so far?

RS: The funds that were released were not conditional. Therefore, the results of Paris II have already been finalized. The importance of reforms comes from the fact that we have to keep this confidence in our markets so that the interest rates could go lower for the economy.

E: In view of some analysts, the central bank has been focusing on monetary stability, while fiscal authorities had priorities on lower interest rates that were of a different emphasis. Do you see a divergence between the two?

RS: Monetary stability is also the objective of the government and has been the objective of all governments since independence. The divergence comes from the views on which policies would result in stability. The central bank relies essentially on market sentiment in order to determine the rates of interest in the country. There are some views that you could administer interest rates and keep monetary stability. This is not our view. Therefore, and as the priority is still for monetary stability, the central bank remains with the same policies.

E: The desire to drive interest rates further down to ease further borrowing is not what you would unconditionally agree to?

RS: We look at the interest rates to be stable. We intervene in case there are upside pressures, because we do have the means to do it through all the funds we raised through the CDs. We think that the next move would be to have lower rates but this has to be market driven, so that the confidence remains in the financial sector. And for that, we need good news from reforms initiated by the government.

E: If we turn now to the banking sector: was 2003 a good year in Lebanese banking?

RS: Lebanese banks in 2003 have realized returns that are equal to 2002 despite their contribution to lend the government at zero percent, and despite the fact that interest rates have declined on the lending side, especially for borrowers with a good rating. The balance sheets of banks have increased this year, especially on the deposit side, with growth of over 13%. There was a good progression for non-resident deposits and fiduciary deposits, which means that the banking sector in Lebanon is conveying more confidence for the region and non-Lebanese. The capitalization of the banks is now over $3 billion, capital adequacy is over the required 12%, and the situation in the sector, in terms of improving management and technology, is also good. So I think that the banking sector in Lebanon is sound and is progressing in a healthy manner.

E: What would you tell someone who claims that banks are making too many profits?

RS: The return on assets, as mentioned by the IMF, is on average 1% internationally. The return on assets in Lebanon during the past two or three years was below this 1%. Therefore, the banks’ return on assets should improve. The reason why you have big nominal profit figures comes from the quick expansion in their balance sheets. When the total balance sheet of Lebanese banks was $10 billion, their profits were $100 million. Today, as balance sheets total $50 billion, their returns theoretically should be $500 million. But in fact, due to provisioning and less income from the government, their returns are less than that. The higher profit figures for the banking sector are derived from the expansion of their balance sheets and not by increases in the spreads they are charging in the cost of money.

E: Are you satisfied with the interest rate environment as it stands today?

RS: We would like to see the debit accounts – excluding consumer loans – with a ceiling of 10%. We are working for that with the banks in Lebanon and the Association of Banks in Lebanon [ABL]. A commission is to be formed in the coming two weeks to study professionally how to get this achieved across all accounts, whatever their size.

Interest rates on deposits are not a concern to the central bank. We think that the banks know how to manage their treasury and if they do sacrifice on their profits to pay their clients more or gain new market shares, the central bank doesn’t see this as harming the economic growth. Our focus is on debit interest.

E: If we look forward into 2004, what will banks have to achieve next year in regard to getting ready for Basle II requirements and working for the needs of the national economy?

RS: The central bank has issued a circular with the purpose of cleaning the balance sheets of the banks from redundant debts and provisions that were constituted for these debts. This includes all accounts up to June 30, 2003. Our priority to prepare the sector to be in a very good situation for Basle II – that we expect for around 2008 – is the success of this operation because the settlement of these loans will help the banks take them out of their provisions. On the part that is not settled, banks will have to reconstitute liquidity during five years, as to equal the amounts that there were no settlements on. This will give the economy a boost because many players will come back and will be able to refinance from banks as they have settled their loans and at the same time will clarify the banks’ balance sheets and will defuse the high percentage of provisions compared to the loan portfolio, which is effectively cosmetic because it is mainly constituted by reserved interest rates. This is the priority for the year 2004 and I think all banks are aware of the importance of this reorganization.

E: Is the Al Madina case closed from the perspective of the central bank?

RS: For us, the matter is closed, banking wise, because we have secured enough funds to pay the true depositors, including interest rates. We have changed the management of the bank, we have nominated a manager by the high banking commission and, therefore, ousted the previous management that brought the bank into the situation. On the legal side, all the necessary has been done. Whatever happens between the players and their disputes is not the concern of the central bank.

E: From your perspective, has the whole Al Madina affair been resolved without damage to the image of Lebanon or its banking sector?

RS: The banking sector did not suffer, on the contrary. This year we have increases in deposits by 15% and a record positive balance of payments – around $3.4 billion until the end of October. The banking system is safe. No other bank was linked to this bank and there is no echo on other banks. We do think that the way the situation was handled was quick and the results were good. Nobody lost money, neither the government nor the central bank nor the depositors.

E: Lebanon’s financial sector has been lagging behind the banking sector in the attention it has been getting. Are there any realistic prospects for establishing an oversight institution of the type of a Securities and Exchange Commission, or legislation that would enable the sector to be stronger next year?

RS: It is necessary to have such an organization. There are projected laws that were presented by the central bank to the government. We don’t know of any immediate follow-up but this is an important initiative that will help raise more equity for the private sector and increase their performance.

E: Next year is an election year in Lebanon, per chance in parallel to the US. In that country, an election year usually means a 1% better than economic growth. Would you foresee anything similar for Lebanon?

RS: Our estimates for next year are still in line with what was achieved in the economy for 2003, with some improvement. Due to the seasonality and volatility of the economy, the central bank has been reserved on putting out estimates. After the first quarter of 2004, we will follow with a better estimate.

E: Would the run up to the election here impact the economy, either positively or negatively?

RS: We hope that the debates will be in line with the interest of the country and its economy. And anyway, if things get harder, we have taken all the necessary measures so that they do not affect the stability of the economy or the financial sector. Already, the results have shown that despite the political internal tensions of the last two or three months, these were not felt by the financial markets. And this is a big improvement in the financial history of the country, where these financial markets were very sensitive to political developments.

E: Is being central bank governor a good preparation for being president of Lebanon?

RS: The time for our interview is up.

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Society

Treading water

by Thomas Schellen January 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

By all signs and measures, insurance in Lebanon remains on the slow burner. Business developments and preliminary expected results for 2003 – even a somewhat conclusive performance evaluation based on unaudited results is not possible before next April because far too few members of this sector provide half-year or third-quarter reports – indicate no significant changes or additional sector growth in comparison to 2002, when the volume of insurance premiums increased by about 6%.

Aside from stronger hopes and aspirations harbored by individual companies and for specific products, insurance managers widely expect that also in 2004, their industry will see more of the same – treading water. This is not to say that the sector doesn’t breathe easier today than it did two years ago, when operators were looking at a mountain of bad news based fundamentally on increasing reinsurance costs and faltering investment portfolios. And the industry certainly appears far healthier and more promising than in the late 90s, when it was battling to emerge from a long credibility crisis and struggling to gain firm financial and operational grounds on the platform of the gradual implementation of a revised national insurance law. This period lies now behind Lebanon’s insurers, even though some of the goals for downsizing of operator numbers and consolidation have yet to be achieved. What that leaves the sector, at this point, is a mixed lot. Firms on their protracted way out and those that in best-case scenarios are broker-sized candidates for acquisition by a viable insurer, stand vis-à-vis operators investing into their growth and increasing professionalism. The latter group comprises first of all the companies with international corporate affiliation, bank-owned firms, including life and bancassurance specialists, and Beirut-based companies with regional scope, but it also includes a share of independent local companies eager for growth. Most of the straits that plagued insurers in 2003 stemmed clearly from the prevailing of adverse economic conditions; others were related to matters of public policy and the state of government affairs. The economic environment made for few interesting projects that firms could go after. “The financial and economic crisis is continuing to take its toll by keeping the number of projects for general insurance low,” said Lucien Letayf, general manager of Libano-Suisse Insurance. The company, which has growing regional activities, could secure contracts to provide coverage for three major construction projects in 2003, he added, “but there are not many of them.” On the health insurance front, persistent problems in the public sector coverage, created through non-payment of government dues to the National Social Security Fund, derailed expectations that pressures on the sector would be relieved by stronger NSSF involvement and new public health care provisions. The much-touted introduction of mandatory third-party liability (TPL) insurance for motorists turned out to be less than companies anticipated, with a plethora of organizational and regulatory difficulties slowing the implementation process. But on the bright side, as far as the government’s work is concerned, insurers widely credited the ministry of economy and trade and its insurance control commission for doing a good job in implementing the first-ever series of complete field audits of sector companies, a task that had been outsourced to two professional auditing firms. Companies across the board furthermore confirmed that essentially, the government took an excellent step in beginning to enforce that motorists obtain compulsory TPL insurance against bodily injury.

With the prospect of increasingly thorough enforcement of vehicle inspections and insurance requirements and ongoing deliberations over the expansion of the compulsory insurance to property damage liability, the motor segment stands to be the main event in occupying the sector’s attention also in 2004. However, some insurers would rather the government not rush into making motor TPL coverage for property damage mandatory. Companies have yet to review the claims ratios and evaluations of the sector’s first experiences with the new motor liability cover. “We should initiate a dialogue with the ministry of economy and trade in order to amend the law on personal injury TPL in motor before moving to implementation of property damage TPL,” said Elie Nasnas, general manager of insurer Axa Middle East.

While the motor cover is a welcome development, “it could also be very risky,” warned Letayf, who also considered the end of 2003 too early for introduction of a compulsory TPL property damage cover. “Companies are not sufficiently capitalized to pay a multitude of claims,” he said, “especially since reinsurers mandate them to retain a large share of risk.”

Numerous managers offered anecdotal evidence for massive increases in claims amounts, in cases where the courts had issued judgments reaching multiples of what plaintiffs had been customarily awarded. One judgment this year reportedly ordered payment of $100,000 to the family of the victim in a deadly car accident, significantly exceeding a long-established practice of awards in the range of $10,000 to $17,000.

With an explosion of bodily injury claim judgments, even the most conservative insurance providers would face challenges to maintain a sustainable level of profits from mandatory motor insurance, given the low minimum premiums set by the regulators. And indeed, the reputable insurers have either discouraged clients from obtaining only the TPL cover or priced their packages considerably above the minimum. As a consequence, these companies did not see their motor portfolios grow by major percentages in 2003.

In sharp contrast to that are the practices of a handful of insurance operators that have been selling TPL motor policies not only at the $43 minimum annual premium rate but seem to have cut their effective prices even below that threshold. These unsound practices could well escalate to become the Lebanese insurance industry’s main problem in 2004. Akin to several companies that amassed unsound medical insurance portfolios in the nineties and crashed toward the end of the decade, shaky providers that are running up risk from signing cut-rate TPL coverage commitments could rapidly be facing bankruptcy, many insiders fear. “This possibility could be verified sooner than some expect,” said Max Zaccar, chairman of Commercial Insurance. If confronted with these concerns, managers of the companies in question did not respond, said Nasnas. “They don’t care.” Some in the industry observe their lesser colleagues’ game of accident roulette with a touch of social Darwinist attitude, claiming that a few insolvencies would simply purge the ranks from unfit operators. But in the opinions of outspoken insurance managers like Nasnas and Zaccar, such stoicism would be ill placed. A crash of insurance companies with big motor portfolios would lead to a loss in consumer trust, especially among the most-likely first-time clients who went for the offers of these firms, Nasnas advised. “It would shake the market.” Another weighty concern for the industry could arise from fairly widespread disparities between high increases of costs – which local insurers had to carry due to massive hikes in reinsurance rates since 2001 – and much less pronounced premium increases (in some cases, even lowered rates) they charged their clients. This could force some providers to make painful adjustments to their rate structure at moments when such sudden moves would come both late and be hard to explain. The problems that the industry could encounter in 2004 are juxtaposed by a notable share of potential growth and opportunities, some of which is outside of Lebanon. Domestically, life insurance and products optimized for the bancassurance distribution channel are the best growth candidates. “With all we hear about 2004, I don’t foresee any potential growth outside the life market,” Nasnas said. “The life business is getting better, due to bancassurance,” said Letayf.

The trend to buying more life insurance indeed seems to be on the rise in Lebanon. While the absence of tax incentives for life policy owners is still an obstacle, the country’s socioeconomic troubles have alerted larger numbers of people to the increasing unlikelihood that they will be able to rely on their families for a retirement income, thereby tempting many to buy into retirement plans and capital life policies. Companies that in 2003 overhauled their life business and stepped up their marketing, like regional player Arabia Insurance, and firms that devised new life and capitalization plans for distribution in bank branches, such as Adir (a company owned jointly by Bank Byblos and French insurer ADP), have been bullish about their prospects. Also many companies with a license to write life insurance but presently have less than extensive life portfolios, see the need to increase their relevant activities. Axa and Libano-Suisse are both firms that intend to address the market with new life products. For firms with regional ambitions, however, some of the most appealing expansion opportunities are in Arab countries, from Damascus to Doha. The Saudi market for medical insurance alone carries potential for new business worth billions of dollars, Letayf said. The parent company of Libano-Suisse insurance is engaged in a 50/50 joint venture with the El-Seif Group for an insurance company in the kingdom at a total capitalization of $27 million (SR100 million). Other Beirut-based insurance companies have equally staked their claims in the Saudi market, which is in the process of opening to greater international participation. Iraq’s insurance needs are massive and Lebanese firms aspire to play a big role in Baghdad, but most see the evolution of that market as likely to take shape at some later time. The opportunity closest to home and in time is the Syrian market, rife with high potential for insurance partnerships from both sides of the border. “What we hope to see in 2004 is opening of the Syrian market,” Nasnas said. “Lebanese insurers could offer added value here. ” As a member of the European Axa Group, the focus of Axa Middle East covers the Levant and Cyprus. If their aspirations and activities are regional or local, there are few doubts among Lebanese insurers that greater institutionalization of sector companies and consolidation of their numbers are prerequisites for their long-term developments. “We believe that even if we are a profitable and strong regional player,” Letayf said, “a partnership with a strong bank would be good news for Libano-Suisse.”

“Consolidation will happen at all levels; even the largest players in Lebanon write very little in premiums in international comparison.” said Zaccar, and Commercial Insurance, although confident of its capacities and proud of its independence, would be interested to look at merger prospects. “Our partners could be one or more banks, one or more local insurance companies, or one or more international ones,” he continued, emphasizing, “we are open but we are in no rush.” Financial standards and auditing supervision for Lebanese insurance companies will further tighten in 2004, supporting the thrust for consolidation. However, industry managers expect the process to need two to three years to gather speed and reduce provider numbers by a substantial margin from today’s some 60 companies.

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Society

Vital cover

by Executive Staff January 1, 2004
written by Executive Staff

April 2003 saw ACAL succeed in reaching a viable framework for the implementation of the 1972 law governing compulsory third party car insurance covering bodily damage. Although some may argue that the early period of implementation may not have been as smooth as one may have hoped for, it did not take long to appreciate that the scenario whereby uninsured bodily injuries and/or deaths arising out of motor accidents have been eliminated. Most importantly, the “hit-and-run” culture has also been significantly reduced as those involved in accidents are less likely to flee the scene of an accident and more likely to help those injured.

The subject of extending this policy to include third party material damage is under review and may be implemented in the near future. No more will we hear stories from friends and acquaintances about how they have had accidents with cars that could not afford to offer indemnification. Statistics have proven that many accidents happen in the work place, especially construction sites. Another observation was that the low-income labor bracket has the highest exposure not only to minor injuries, but also to disabilities that can jeopardize their and their dependents welfare. Following fruitful discussions with the relevant authorities, providing proper insurance for workers has now become a prerequisite to obtaining a construction permit. Such insurance provides compensation for medical treatment (including hospitalization) and compensation following work related disabilities or deaths.

We all remember the tragic scenes of collapsed buildings and the consequences to the tenants. The government has now felt the need to promote safety standards for new buildings starting with early in the design phase. ACAL was actively involved in working with the official committee that took charge of studying this issue and the result included a recommendation to have various insurance policies for the different stages, including a 10 year insurance plan following the completion of the construction to compensate for inherent structural defects. A parliamentary committee is now reviewing these recommendations and we feel that it will not be long before building safety standards are significantly improved.

From our perspective, our work is not only contributing to the improvement of the quality of life in our society but also gradually creating new opportunities for our sector and increasing the size of the Lebanese workforce. ACAL has also been working to improve the difficult working conditions of insurance companies, including the slow recovery and development of the Lebanese economy following the years of war and the high increase in the cost of reinsurance following 9/11 with no possibility of increasing the price of insurance in our market. The latter has led to a drop in profit margins, the relatively small size of the Lebanese market and structural features not facilitating the expansion of Lebanese insurance operations in other countries Faced with these challenges, the insurance sector has worked individually and collectively through ACAL towards maximizing the potential of their development. We have seen remarkable progress in the quality of insurance contracts made available to the customers and I believe that this has been the natural result of our free market economy. In this sense, traditional single cover policies are being replaced by a variety of covers with competitive premiums.

Although debatable, there was surely extensive innovation in the distribution channels of insurance policies and here we have to acknowledge the introduction of Bancassurance and e-business. These reduce administrative costs of insurance sales transactions and the cost of premium collection, as well as the time dedicated to complete the sales operation

In conjunction with the above, the challenge will always be to provide the client with professional consultancy on his risk transfer requirements and the adequacy of the insurance contracts that he is buying, aspects that still seem to be better served through the traditional insurance intermediaries.

Regionally, Lebanese insurance companies have a proud tradition of regional expansion, especially in the Gulf. However, their role may be gradually diminishing due to the development of Arab insurance sectors with large financial capitalization and national interests. At present, there seem to be good prospects in Syria. There are high expectations that Damascus may be granting licenses to Lebanese insurance companies. ACAL is working closely with the Syrian insurance representatives and we have already established an excellent level of cross border co-operation.

Elsewhere, we have been witnessing serious efforts to optimize the potential of the Lebanese insurance companies to grow and compete. These efforts are the result of the joint commitments of the legislators, regulators and ACAL. Capital adequacy and regulatory control have formed the essential elements of our efforts. From the legal side, the law governing the insurance operations in Lebanon was subject to serious review, resulting in the promulgation of the amended 1999 law. The outcome was surely a step in the right direction but ACAL is aiming at further improvements and is currently working on further law amendments, which we shall reveal in due time.

ACAL has initiated the framework for the continuous evaluations of the sector, and we shall continue to issue the necessary recommendations within a context of active co-operation with all concerned. We do however hope to change our role to become binding with all licensed insurance companies.

To elaborate, we have created what we call CENTRALE DE RISQUES, where we will collect risk related data from all insurance companies to be made available to all member companies with the aim of improving the quality of insurance underwriting and minimizing the risk of fraud. We have also established a joint committee with the regulatory bodies that will be concerned in building up market statistics to promote transparency. Our agenda for the future will be to increase communication with the authorities on the taxation imposed on insurance clients and beneficiaries. The readers may well be aware that clients acquiring all non-life insurance contracts have to bear tax and stamp duties ranging between 9% and 11% of insurance premiums. Also, compensations received from life contracts are also subject to 5% tax deductions. Although these would appear to contribute in the public income, they do not promote growth in the insurance market, a growth that may well compensate for any loss of tax and stamp duty. Other economies have been long promoted the acquisition of insurance by making it tax deductible. Our system has instead contributed to lost local insurance opportunities, mainly in the marine and life sectors, where internationally rates are attractive and easily available and the loss of potential foreign direct investment.

Finally, it is an honor for me to announce that the 25th General Arab Insurance Conference will be held in Lebanon in May 2004 with the participation of a large number of participants from both the Arab and international insurance companies. The event will be presided by ACAL and the theme will be “Arab Insurance: An Outlook to the Future.” In brief, our work will concentrate on setting recommendations of a proactive nature that will allow Arab insurers to meet the challenges of the future with a high level of readiness.

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Road ahead

by Eleanor Blanch January 1, 2004
written by Eleanor Blanch

“I’ll be glad if my watch could stop today,” said Jacque Sarraf, chairman of Malia Holding and former head of the Association of Lebanese Industrialists (ALI). “The year 2004 offers a vision of turmoil regionally and locally.”

Lebanon in 2004 will have to elect a new president or renew the mandate of President Emile Lahoud and hold municipal elections, two big political events that could shake the economy, said Sarraf.

“If you look in the region, there is no war but there is also no peace in Iraq. New problems are emerging in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, with increased threats to Syria and Iran,” he added.

For the record, official government figures show that 418 new industrial units were created up to September 2003, while industrial exports in the first three quarters of the same year increased by 20% from the same period 2002. However, industrialists are not celebrating.

The US-led war on Iraq may have been shorter than previously expected, but it paralyzed a segment of industrialists who relied on an Iraqi market that catered to 24 million people. Many of the Iraqi officials Lebanese industrialists had dealt with were no longer around and some industrialists spent the latter part of the year trying to get money owed to them by the ousted Baathist regime. Major hostilities in Iraq were declared over in May, but oil prices continued to rise and industrialists had to endure higher fuel oil and electricity bills, which were will already steep in the run-up to the war.

The impact of the war on the economy as a whole was cushioned by last year’s Paris II donor conference, which gave Lebanon a breathing space and $4.4 billion in soft loans to reschedule its high public debt over a longer period and at a cheaper cost. The conference banished talks of a financial meltdown that would have hit industries hard. The Paris II loans worked on significantly lowering interest rates on government treasury-bills and deposits at banks, but most industrialists and merchants who were expecting a similar drop on loans were asked to wait.

Industrialists in 2003 also entered into a virtual free trade zone with Syria, which had signed with Lebanon an agreement that phases tariffs on industrial products traded between the two countries by the beginning of this year. The agreement has not rectified the trade imbalance with Syria, which has low labor costs, a vast range of raw materials and large swathes of industrial land.

Lebanese industrialists also entered into a semi free trade zone with the European Union when an interim free trade agreement with Lebanon’s number one import market came into force in March 2003. The interim Association Agreement, signed in the middle of 2002, gave many of Lebanon’s industrial, agro-industrial and agricultural exports nearly tariff-free access to the EU before the actual agreement was ratified. The Arab world remains the number one export market for Lebanese goods, but they are importing less and less products from Lebanon as production costs increase. The agro-industry sector is one victim of such high productions costs. “We were exporting $600 million of agro-industrial goods in 1996,” said Ateff Idriss, head of the Syndicate of Agro-Industries in Lebanon. “We lost in the last ten years more than 50% of agro exports, which stand today at $250 million a year.”

Industrialists are increasing exports because they cannot afford not to. Reducing production costs was top priority for industrialists in 2003 and will be their obsession in 2004. “In Lebanon the cost of land, financing and energy are more expensive than regional countries,” said Fadi Samaha, director general of the industry ministry. “Fuel costs alone represent 20% to 30% of general production costs,” he continued, adding that the ministry is working with the central bank to help cut the cost of financing for industrialists. Currently, the central bank subsidizes interest payments on loans extended to productive sectors.

“The Central bank subsidies are for a short period of seven years, but industrialists need loans for seven to 20 years,” said Samaha. “The loans subsidized by the central bank only cover investing costs, but not operating cost such as the financing of raw materials imported by industrialists.”

The central bank began this year to help the private sector lower the cost of its financing needs by urging banks in Lebanon to lower interest rates on loans, and one bank obliged. It also brokered an agreement between banks and the private sector to reschedule bad loans that banks wanted off their balance sheets and clients, such as industrialists, wanted to reschedule over a longer period of time.

Fadi Abboud, head of the ALI, estimates that 18% to 20% of the $4 billion in bad loans in question belong to the industrial sector. “Yes, the agreement will settle problems, but it does not address how a company is going to refinance itself,” said Abboud.

The industrial sector requires vast investments to help it modernize and compete with a influx of cheap and competitive goods that are finding their way into the Lebanese market. Meanwhile, many industrialists argue they will not be able to export much to European Union under the Association Agreement because they do not have the means to upgrade their industries to meet European standards.

“The EuroMed partnership allows us to have access to markets, but it has its own price because we have to have standards,” said Samaha. “It is not a given for everybody and we have to work on quality to reach European standards.”

Compliance with standards is another issue that is dogging the Lebanese industry, particularly the agro-industrial sector, which got a bad rap this year with rumors of contanimated dairy products finding their way onto the shelves.

“We need a food safety law, a sound legal framework, accreditation and research centers to modernize the agro-industry,” said Idriss. “Research is important for increasing exports because we cannot export unsafe packages to the European Union.”

For the meantime, many Lebanese industrialists are concentrating on a less demanding market, such as Iraq, Lebanon’s former number one export market. But insecurity and US control of government decisions in Iraq is not helping. Nonetheless, Lebanese industrialists returned to Iraq as soon as the war was over, trying to revive contacts and make new ones.

“The war on Iraq paralyzed industries for four to five months and we lost the work of seven years,” said Ahmad Kabbara, head of the export committee at the ALI. “But the Iraqi private sector has started to import from us goods such as cement and electronics.”

There are no accurate figures about the amount of goods Iraqi traders are currently importing from Lebanon, particularly as no proper Iraqi government is yet in charge.

“If the war did not take place, we were expecting to sign contracts worth $1 billion a year,” said Kabbara. “If the Iraqi private sector is revitalized, I think we can export $300 million a year to Iraq.”

Before the war started in March, Lebanese industrialists and businessmen signed over $1.1 billion in contracts with the Iraqi government under the United Nations brokered oil-for-food program. Some $450 million of these contracts were unpaid when the Iraqi government lost power in March. “The United Nations has rescheduled all contracts signed under the oil for food program,” said Kabarra. “We were paid $250 million and some $200 million have yet to be paid.”

For Kabarra and many other industrialists, Iraq still remains a market worth venturing in, despite security concerns and current competition from Americans, Europeans and other countries that were shunned by Saddam. “Lebanon, Iraq and Syria is the most important economic triangle that is capable of solving our problems and making us self-sufficient,” said Kabbara. “We will not need to rely on any other country as this triangle has sufficient raw material and human resources.”

Achieving this triangle requires a broader vision from Arab countries, which are usually more adept at erecting trade barriers, as is the case with the much-feared Greater Arab Free Trade Area that will come into force in the beginning of 2005. Most of the signatories to the agreement have not honored their commitments, leaving Lebanon’s open markets prey to their goods without reciprocal treatment.

“We are not prepared for the Arab invasion because Arabs are implementing the agreements in an Arabic way,” said Kabbara. “We face problems in transportation and transit taxes.”

Many industrialists lament the government is quick to sign trade agreements without studying their effects on the Lebanese industry, particularly as the broad cuts in import duties in 2000 reduced tariffs on industrial imports to an average of 5%.

Most industrialists expect exports to increase by 15% to 20% next year, but they do not think much of the increase. Lebanon will be preparing itself in 2004 for GAFTA and entering into serious talks with the World Trade Organization, which will leave Lebanon’s open markets without protection barricades. “We are seriously planning to address the WTO and EU that at this moment we can’t afford to have customs duties abolished due to high production costs,” said Abboud.

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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