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Finance

Tough sell

by Tony Hchaime October 1, 2003
written by Tony Hchaime

Recent data suggests that commercial banks and financial institutions in Lebanon are increasingly shying away from corporate lending. In fact, most major banks remain wary of the Lebanese corporate environment, as they still attempt to mend their existing portfolios of corporate debt, to the extent of actually reducing the size of their portfolio of commercial loans. BLOM Bank, Banque Audi, and Banque Saradar saw their portfolios of commercial loans shrink anywhere between 1% and 8% over the past year. Typically, and perhaps oddly, the bulk of non-performing loans held by most banks fall into the corporate lending category, as opposed to retail lending to consumers. Corporate banking – including corporate loans and financial assistance – thrived in the mid 1990s as the economy was perceived to accelerate its post-war recovery with a GDP growth of 8.8% per year. Banks were typically more eager to help finance business ventures in Lebanon, coupled with equity capital being contributed by domestic and regional investors alike. New companies were being established, consumption was high, real estate prices were soaring, and the overall outlook for the economy was rosy, to say the least.

In 1996, as banks continuously enlarged their portfolios of corporate debt – typically of a long-term nature – things rapidly took a turn for the worse. Economic growth slipped into reverse, consumer confidence, and consequently consumption, toppled. As businesses saw their margins squeezed by high interest rates on their financing and lower revenues, bankruptcies thrived, creating a substantial burden to anyone and everyone with any kind of exposure to the Lebanese corporate environment. Despite the promising signs of an economic recovery observed over the past few months, and the increased consumer and investor confidence pursuant to Paris II, Lebanese banks are not likely to expose themselves to additional corporate debt until they improve the status of their existing portfolio to a point where they can take on additional exposure, a task typically of a high risk nature considering the unpredictability of the Lebanese economic and business environments.

While no bank has categorically ruled out any form of lending, credit assessment is stringent at most institutions, and conditions for acceptance are as such because only large, well-established businesses are eligible to apply. Many Alpha group banks are extending corporate loans, albeit on a very conservative basis, requiring substantial due diligence and a number of guarantees.

Smaller banks, on the other hand, seem perhaps more eager to venture into corporate lending. Typically, smaller banks have less balance sheet exposure to corporate loans from their past activities. This, coupled with an increasingly competitive environment in retail lending, has prompted a number of medium sized banks to draft strategies that would focus on business loans. As such, conditions are less stringent, interest rates are more flexible, and leniency is more commonplace.

However, the major factors behind the reluctance of banks to finance businesses in Lebanon are being exacerbated by their own policies on the matter. Small and medium sized enterprises have always been the backbone of the Lebanese economy. In fact, SMEs represent around 95% of total industrial enterprises, and employ up to 65% of the total industry labor force. Moreover, SMEs contribute over 40% of the country’s industrial output. Unfortunately however, most SMEs are foregoing profitable business opportunities and are operating below full potential. Production is being limited by the overall reluctance of major banks to provide fairly priced financing facilities to expand production.

While the Lebanese government is attempting to nurture this appetite for small enterprises through subsidies, it does not do so for all sectors, as many promising entrepreneurs are facing difficulty in obtaining debt financing for their projects.

A significant level of risk is typically inherent of small businesses, whose operations are of a typically high volatility. Such a factor is deterring banks from extending to them the much-needed facilities, to the benefit of large and well-established institutions. Such an attitude is somewhat detrimental to the overall growth of businesses in Lebanon, since large institutions typically make use of credit facilities to maintain their operations; whereas small businesses make use of funds made available to them to open up to new markets, increase their product lines, and focus on promotion and advertising.

It should be noted, however, that banks are not the only ones shying away from corporate lending. While Lebanese banks are typically reluctant to offer financing services to local companies, such companies themselves often find it detrimental to make use of such services if and when they are provided. In fact, the cost of debt on corporate loans is so high that it significantly eats into profit margins and forces companies to forego promising investment opportunities. According to Central Bank statistics, interest rates typically charged by Lebanese banks do not fall below 10% p.a. on average, a drastically excessive figure given the typical returns on investments in the country.

A high cost of equity resulting from the geo-political and economic risks associated with the country, coupled with a high cost of debt, are severely undermining appetite for investments in Lebanon. Sought after investments should currently achieve returns in excess of 15% in order to marginally exceed their cost of capital. The issue has been raised numerous times recently, namely in the industrial sector. A number of Lebanese industrialists are reducing output, moving production to other countries, or outright shutting down their operations due to – among other reasons – the high cost of financing their working capital.

It appears then that would-be entrepreneurs should shift their focus towards a perhaps more expensive source of financing: equity capital. Equity capital for new innovative businesses often comes in the form of venture capital, especially in the West. A solid equity base would provide a newly established company with a solid base to launch and expand its operations. Moreover, the ability of a company to attract regional strategic partners would assist in expanding across borders, a critical factor given the limited size of the domestic market in Lebanon.

In addition, a well-capitalized company offers an added incentive to banks to provide debt financing, as the perceived risk to the banking institutions is reduced by the availability of a solid capital base.

It appears then as though the Lebanese business environment suffers from a basic flaw, which severely reduces its ability to promote investments and attract foreign investment capital. Bank’s preferences towards government bonds instead of loans severely limits the sector’s ability to play its basic role of channeling funds from depositors into investments. Several steps should be undertaken, and promptly so, to remedy the situation. It surely does not suffice to attract Arab funds into Lebanese banks if their primary use is lending to the government, and consequently crowding out the private sector. In fact, the government itself should promote corporate lending by reducing interest rates to spur investments, offering subsidies, and encouraging banks to open up their vaults.

October 1, 2003 0 comments
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Society

It’s all in the name

by Toby Stevens October 1, 2003
written by Toby Stevens

Did it ever occur to you that your email address could be presenting you in a bad light?

Last year, 31 million emails were sent each day. According to the International Data Corporation, by 2006, this number is expected to reach 60 billion, while the number of worldwide email addresses is expected to increase from 505 million in 2000 to 1.2 billion in 2005. Subscribers to email providers such as Yahoo! and AOL are also increasing, with Hotmail the market leader with over three million members. With all the spam (electronic junk mail) received daily in most in-boxes, many email users are growing tired of using the popular, and free, hotmail, yahoo, or AOL services. In fact, in the corporate arena, employees assess how important a company, or individual, is from their email address. More attention is likely to be given to emails using a company’s domain name ([email protected]) rather than an email using an ISP’s domain name ([email protected]). Even riskier is using free email services ([email protected]). “I consider an email message more credible when it has a corporate domain name, rather than a hotmail domain, which I usually discard,” said Rami Majzoub, account director for Levant and Egypt at Reuters Middle East. “ Unfortunately, some Lebanese companies, even well known banks, still use their ISP’s domain name, which shows a lack of seriousness and awareness on their part,” he added. According to Michel Kilzi, general manager at Internet Facilities Group, the reason most corporate employees in the Arab world still use their personal emails for work related issues is because of the lack of awareness and widespread internet penetration. “Whether it is a small, medium sized or huge corporation, all the emails I receive from Europe and the US use the domain address of the corporation,” said Kilzi. “Since most companies have a certain amount of control and restrictions on their corporate emails, every employee separates between their business and personal email accounts. But this is not the case when it comes to the Arab countries. Sometimes I receive an email from Saudi Arabia, Syria or Kuwait from a CEO using his hotmail or yahoo account and I don’t take them as seriously – it’s as if they don’t have a company profile or business card,” added Kilzi.

One thing is for sure, the lack of corporate domain usage is not due to financial or economic constraints. Most companies can register a domain name on the net for as low as $25 per year, and with hosting fees, the cost could reach a maximum of $100. “In Lebanon, 60% of companies have their own domain name, 5% still use hotmail and yahoo, and the rest use their ISP’s domain,” said Rita Hayek, sales and marketing manager at Terravision. “Lebanese companies understand the importance of having their own domain name. It is usually students or small companies that usually use hotmail and yahoo, and they are probably unaware of the importance of a domain name.” Lebanese companies can also register a .lb domain for about LL900,000, or $600. However, some find the procedure too complicated, as they need to register their company trademark with the government before receiving their domain registration. “We have seen many Lebanese companies register .com because they don’t want to go through the lengthy process of registering for the .lb,” said Rim El Kady, IT unit manager at AUB. Companies should especially take care about the email addresses of its employees because, according to analysts, a domain name speaks volumes. For example, it can determine how a corporation treats its employees. If a company uses the full name of the employee in the email address (like, [email protected]), it shows that the organization views its employees as independent entities that provide added value to the company, and as such, respects their individuality. If only the position is used (as in [email protected]), the company is considered more impersonal and viewed as valuing company divisions and apparatuses over personnel. “Sometimes, it is easier for the IT department to create an impersonal address so that when an employee leaves they don’t have to go through the hassle of changing names, adding new ones and deleting old ones,” one IT administer explained. A third method adopted by companies is incorporating the initials of an employee followed by numbers (e.g., [email protected]). In such a case, analysts say the company views its personnel objectively and in a hierarchical manner, while recognizing that they are in charge of services and activities.

But for those of you not wanting to be pigeon holed by a company domain name, or wanting to stand out from the hoards of millions using hotmail and yahoo accounts, do not fear – there is a domain out there for everyone. If you want to show you have a funny bone, you could try [email protected]. Not really in a social mood? Well then [email protected] is just right for you. Whoever said ‘what’s in name’ obviously never had email.

(Box) Revealing messages: Is your position affecting the way you write your emails?

According to an article in The Guardian, your position in a company could influence the way you write your emails. For example, did you know that the higher up you are, the more likely your emails are full of informalities. Since, big honchos have already made it, so to speak, they don’t feel the need to impress through meticulous email writing. In fact, senior executives rarely use corporate jargon and are more likely to talk to a person face to face. Furthermore, the powers that be are less like to use the cc option.

For the middlemen, the story is a bit different because they have a lot to lose or gain. If you’re only half way up the corporate ladder, you probably write lengthy emails to try and impress the higher ups. Middle management also like to sign off with signatures, which include name, position and sometimes a quote even. At the entry level? Well, in that case, according to the Guardian, you like to crowd messages with emoticons, like smiley (?), sad (?), or anxious faces (:S) that MSN or Yahoo messenger have made so popular. Being at the lower end of the corporate food chain also means that you have time to send conversational emails to colleagues, mainly not work related of course. Low status employees are, not surprisingly, more likely to send all those annoying jokes and forwards.

Who knew an email could say so much?

October 1, 2003 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

New dawn of the internet age

by Thomas Schellen September 8, 2003
written by Thomas Schellen

Since the dawn of the personal computer, Lebanon has been on the information technology map. Now as the age of the internet and new economy create business opportunities and bring international ICT companies to Beirut, the potential is there for Lebanon to establish itself as a Levantine hub. Executive checked how four Lebanese companies are gearing up for the challenge.

Computer Information Systems

Growth is steady for Computer Information Systems (CIS), which is shifting from distribution of hardware to providing implementation services and turnkey solutions for corporate clients. “Things are picking up again,” said sales manager Michel Nassif. “We are still recruiting people.”

According to figures the company published for its overall activities, normal is rather good. Together with sister company, Unidist, CIS realized consolidated IT sales revenue that increased from $100 million in 2001 to $125 million in 2002, with 55% coming from project integration and 45% from product distribution revenue from activities in some 30 countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.

For 20 years, CIS and its affiliate companies have been the distributors for information technology firm Hewlett Packard and other manufacturers, first in Lebanon, and from 1993 in African and Middle Eastern countries. With 26% of its consolidated IT sales revenue in the Middle East, this region is the largest of seven geographic markets for the group, followed by North Africa. As the market for computers and peripherals has seen margins shrink, the firm’s growth orientation is now in project integration and turnkey solutions. “The integration business has sustainable margins compared to distribution, which is based on volume at low margins,” Nassif said.

A recent example was a contract won by CIS in collaboration with an international partner to install Lebanon’s new passport issuing system. From input stations to the production of computer-readable passports, the complete solution covered all hardware components and software for the highly secure system delivered to the Lebanese state. While the group set up three hardware distribution hubs in France, South Africa and Dubai, CIS based their know-how for project implementation in France and Lebanon. Focal competency realms are in platforms, networking and solutions based on the products of leading global software and hardware providers, from Oracle and Microsoft to Nortel and Cisco, with technicians and IT experts dispatched from Beirut to various projects in the group’s areas of operations. In the domestic market, CIS is looking for annual double-digit growth. “It is our base market – we have a strong presence here,” Nassif said. “We want to do business and remain preferred vendor of IT.”

The HP product lines dominate the field clearly in some office peripherals. For desktop and portable computers, Compaq and HP are part of the international manufacturer segment competing for individual, institutional and corporate buyers of brand products. Nassif assesses brand computers as holding about one third of the overall PC sales, which in his estimate total around 60,000 units per year.

Plans by the government to facilitate e-business and plans by the Ministry of Post and Telecommunications to implement a public data network would boost the IT industry, the manager said. “E-services and e-banking and e-commerce are what is going to come. It will take some time but it will happen.”

Software Design

Software Design has practiced the art of programming in Lebanon since 1986, and its core product, the Visual Dolphin suite of financial and office management software, is a leader in the local market. “In one sentence: Things are going great,” said company founder and CEO Michel Nseir. “We are in a real expansion phase. Visual Dolphin is doing beautifully well and we are competing quite easily with international products.”

According to Nseir, the advantages Visual Dolphin offers to local and regional clients are that it compiles the same features available from international products but is localized to the profile of companies in the Middle East, and at a total cost of ownership that is four times less than for the big names in office management solutions. The company has kept its development capacities centrally focused in Beirut, although it grew regionally over the past few years, opening offices in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Out of its team of over 50 employees, one third are consultants and one third are working in administration and sales. The remaining 19 are developers and all but two are based in Beirut.

“In Lebanon, we feel modestly that we continue to be leaders. In the region, we are still too small – I would even say extremely small – but we have enough to keep our company busy,” Nseir said.

Only in the domestic arena, the company decided to maintain its strong position of direct contact and sales to customers. In addressing regional markets, Software Design is betting more and more on relationships with resellers and partners. Software Design recently partnered with new resellers in Kuwait and Jordan but its most significant directional moves point to Germany and Canada. In both countries, the firm has appointed consultants in search for business partners, and Nseir is particularly looking to outsource some of the company’s work to Canada. Outsourcing from Lebanon to Canada? The development cost wouldn’t be higher in Canada, Nseir claimed, because from day one of operations, the Canadian government would extend grants and financial benefits to the firm – such as footing 40% of salary costs – that one could only dream of in Lebanon. If a partnership with a Canadian firm and manufacturer of a compatible software product line can be reached, finding customers and opening the North American market are considerations that play a role in Software Design’s planning. But a further very important – and not entirely comforting – need behind the strategy is that for a new identifier. “A Lebanese brand name is not appreciated,” Nseir lamented. “Europe and Canada have a better perception among Middle Eastern customers than a Lebanese product.” For example, Indian decision makers in companies in the Gulf would be willing to consider non-Indian products but not Lebanese ones, and in pitching to those decision makers, Software Design would have to hide their Lebanese identity, the manager said. Apart from Great Plains, a US supplier of business solutions that is part of the Microsoft realm and the fiercest competitor for business management software in the Middle East, the market for these products is divided among a good number of regional and smaller international providers. With turnover in the range of $1.5 to $1.6 million and claiming about 12% year-on-year growth between June 2002 and June 2003, Software Design is a well-established member of the Lebanese software industry. But in the absence of real promotion of the national ICT industry and image, Nseir is incensed about the lack of prospects and support for his industry. “Why do I have to go to Canada today, just to change my Lebanese identity? Three years ago, we were proud to be a Lebanese company,” he said.

Microsoft

For multinationals that choose to appear on the Beirut market, development and education seems to be a more of a priority that racking up the sales figures. Microsoft has made such a commitment to the Lebanese market by opening a representative office here in 1999. The software giant sees the country as a “potential market,” said Microsoft Eastern Mediterranean general manager Charbel Fakhoury. “Lebanon has always been a leader in ideas. But it has been slow on executing a unified vision. This is how I see where we are today.” “If we look back over the past four years, things have changed,” Fakhoury said. “Early on, we had issues on software imports with customs. It caused costs, created delays and a lot of efficiency issues. This has been resolved.”

Less beneficial to the firm were the slowdown of growth in telecommunications, internet penetration and adoption of e-services. High costs of PC ownership and connectivity, along with leisurely progress of legislation on things ‘e’ and Intellectual Property Rights discouraged faster development and kept Microsoft’s revenue growth in Lebanon lagging behind other countries in the region. But the company has been working closely with important sectors, Fakhoury said. ICT industry and private sector businesses, governmental entities and education institutions from schools to universities have all been the partners Microsoft sought out successfully over the past years. Over the period, the company brought to Beirut a good number of road show conferences and events aiming to win both developers and business decision makers to view their respective enterprises the Microsoft way. But it also supported dot-net clubs for students at five universities and sponsored a “smart bus” to expand IT awareness in rural Lebanon. Organizationally, Microsoft has structured its Middle Eastern presence into five sub-regions, namely southern Gulf, northern Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Eastern Mediterranean. The Beirut office, where 36 employees are based, is entrusted with the Eastern Mediterranean region comprising Lebanon, Jordan, Cyprus, Malta, and – as far as the restrictions of US embargo and export control regulations allow – Syria. A win-win business message of local and international synergies is key in the concept professed by Microsoft. “Our role is being a catalyst of IT in the economy,” Fakhoury said. “We want to increase the number of our partners and their level of skills.”

Without maintaining a large global services structure, Microsoft banks on partners and professionals certified under its software engineering qualifications to work with its tools and enhance the value of the entire business proposition of using Microsoft products. In Lebanon, the firm was an “early comer, early investor, and early supporter of the market,” Fakhoury said. In acknowledging the need to see things moving in all segments here, he classified the country as a potential market. “The effort we have to put in to drive things in Lebanon is higher than the effort needed in other countries. The market requires a lot of convincing and is decentralized. At the same time it is very demanding.”

In October, Mircosoft will launch a new set of its market-

dominant programs the likes of Word, Excel, Outlook, PowerPoint et al, together with further programs, server platforms and services solutions under the new label Microsoft Office Systems. The main launch event for the Middle East will be at the Gitex IT show and trade fair in Dubai. But the company is also preparing something for Lebanon although details are not yet available.

Terranet

The world of chatting and information sharing would be naught without the net. Internet service provider Terranet came to the Lebanese market in 1999, with the handicap of being a late starter who wanted to deploy the best technology while complying with international industry standards. The company’s start-up goal was to rise to one of the top five or six ISPs in a local market characterized by rapid growth environment and exciting (by local standards) subscriber pool of well over 100,000.

“From being number 17, it took us one-and-a-half years to rise to one of the top three ISPs in Lebanon, gaining a very good reputation as the number one contender for customer satisfaction,” boasted Joseph Saade, Terranet’s deputy general manager. It was to the firm’s advantage that most customers had not been locked into loyalty contracts and were ready to experiment with new providers. But as Saade also said, the path to becoming really a major player in the Lebanese market was paved with hardship. Within a matter of a few weeks and months after large-scale introduction and marketing of its service as provider of an integrated internet access and portal, Terranet saw its cash flow model thrown in jeopardy when a ruinous local price war among Lebanese providers slashed profit margins for the whole industry to the point that ISPs sold access far below cost. Following this irrational phase of price aggression, a wave of non-licensed internet-over-cable operators took most of the new home user market with 24/7 services. Furthermore, the revenue theory of the portal concept, which aimed to bind customers to their provider by offering content and directory services and then cash in on that loyal customer base by selling (mostly banner) advertising space, flopped globally. “We made the same mistake in saying we want to provide the AOL of Lebanon and make enough money from ads to cover the cost of the portal,” Saade said, admitting that this never happened. Nonetheless, Terranet today claims that its some 22,000 true clients, who provide a steady stream of dial-up subscription revenue, represent about 40% of the country’s regular dial-up customers. The firm is a contender in both corporate and dial-up markets. About one third of subscribers use the faster – and more expensive – 56k service, which is the top of what an internet user can draw on in this country. Terranet undertook an investment into the much speedier ADSL (asynchronous digital subscriber line) service, which started to dominate developed communication markets about at the time when Lebanon’s public sector decision makers moved towards deliberating the pricing structure for the 56k ISDN service. Terranet’s two-year old ADSL equipment is ready to run but could not be introduced, due to another lack of pricing regulation.

Outside of Lebanon, Terranet succeeded in several Middle Eastern ISP projects either as subcontractor to set up a network or as full partner in a new service. While the company is bound to maintain its portal and design capabilities in the sister company, TerraVision, Saade said the corporate emphasis will be on providing access services. Overall, Saade is very optimistic. The haunting possibilities of further price wars have been resolved and the termination of the non-licensed cable-internet business through the government will bring a flood of new subscribers, he said. “The market now has four to five ISPs and the public is very intelligent in that concern, knowing what each company is capable of providing.”

Saade claimed that his corporate customers trust Terranet as an advanced provider of technology and reliable customer support even if the ISP is not out to offer bargain rates. He is also confident of securing a good market share of the expected boom in new dial-up subscriptions over the next two years.

September 8, 2003 0 comments
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Business

The tortoise and the hare

by Michael Karam September 3, 2003
written by Michael Karam

After a two-year hiatus, Admic, the $100 million retailer that brought us BHV and Monoprix, is making its next move. This month sees the opening of a third 2,250m2 Monoprix in Zouk, while in November, Monoprix number four, with 3,600m2, will open its doors for business in Hazmieh’s Baabda Plaza. But why the wait, especially with its main competitor Spinneys opening roughly 18,000m2 in Beirut, Tripoli and Sidon? A case of the tortoise and the hare, maybe?

“We have been conservative in our expansion strategy,” explains Michel Abchee sitting in his Jnah office. “We wanted to make sure it was underpinned with a solid financial plan.” With Lebanon’s supermarket sector shaping up like a chess game, it is easy to see the strategic reasons behind Admic’s latest moves. Firstly neither Monoprix nor Spinneys have ventured into the Zouk, Kaslik, Jounieh area, and although Spinneys’ flagship is located in nearby Dbayeh, retailers admit that Keserwan shoppers cannot be counted on to venture beyond the Nahr el Kelb tunnel. Secondly, Admic’s presence in Hazmieh will pre-empt a 15,000 m2 Spinneys in the same area, slated for Spring 2004. The big guns however, remain in reserve. This month also sees the beginning of a marketing campaign for Admic’s $70 million, 175,000m2 indoor shopping mall at Nahr el Mott near Dora, which is due to open at the end of 2004. Furthermore, Admic still intends to bring French department store Les Galeries Lafayette to Beirut, where it is hoped it will eventually anchor the long-awaited Souks project in the BCD. Potentially the jewel in the Admic crown, Les Galeries Lafayette should have opened, had the Souks shopping mall not stalled over the issuing of building permits. “It is a shame, but these things are out of our hands,” shrugs Abchee. With 60,000m2 of gross lettable area (GLA), the Nahr el Mott mall is the biggest retail project in Lebanon, outstripping the Souks, which is expected to have around 55,000m2 of net retail space and dwarfing ABC’s 30,000m2 Ashrafieh mall and the Metropolitan City Center, which has allocated 25,000m2 for shopping. Admic’s Nahr el Mott mall will house an 11,000m2 Geant Casino hypermarket and an 18,000m2 BHV department store as well as 90 other retail units.

“It will be a genuine regional mall,” says Abchee, who insists that the issue of location has been thoroughly studied. “Look at the map and tell me that all roads do not lead to Dora,” he says, pointing to an architect’s model of the project. “The immediate catchment area is still Beirut, as the mall’s sheer size should ensure that it generates traffic from outside the immediate and primary catchment zones.”

Theoretically, his choice of location makes sense. According to what figures are available from the Lebanese statistics bureau, Greater Beirut and its northern suburbs represent Lebanon’s biggest spenders with 45% of the nation’s residents earning 60% of its income. Still, Abchee is used to flying in the face of conventional wisdom. The original pitch for the Jnah complex was met with skepticism. “No one believed people would travel to Jnah to shop, but it has become one of the most accessible areas in Beirut.” At $70 million, the project has gone over budget by around 10%, but Abchee is philosophical. “It is unfortunate that we got caught by the strengthening Euro, the introduction of VAT and a load of other new laws that have levied us at every turn.”

Admic began revolutionizing Lebanese retail in December 1998, when it opened BHV, the home furnishing and appliance-driven department store in Jnah. The store was the first phase of the one-stop-shop formula envisioned by Abchee and his two brothers Pascal and Gaby. Monoprix opened upstairs in early 1999 and the rest is history. “We used to come here on holidays and notice that there was no organized shopping,” says Abchee. “We felt we could change all that.”

It was a bold assumption, but the “BHV effect” has changed the way the Lebanese shop and the three stores – a Monoprix branch opened in Ashrafieh at the end of 2000 – turn over $100 million annually.

“We wanted to create Lebanon’s first one-stop-shop and in doing so, we also tapped into latent or unconscious demand,” says Abchee. “People suddenly decided they liked to spend on DIY and this led them to look at shopping in terms of lifestyle.”
 

More significantly, however, is that the BHV/Monoprix alliance in Jnah has seen the area begin to develop into a thriving – albeit shambolic – retail hub. “One of the main problems is the lack of planning,” says Abchee. “Jnah is evolving. Tahan and Homeline are here and soon Spinneys will open, but the planning is non-existent. It will be a while before we meet the international norms but this is what is needed.”

Nonetheless, Abchee is determined to bring new standards to a market that he sees as brimming with potential. “There is a shortage in quality retail units,” he says. “We have to respect certain trends and standards of the international retail market if more global brands are going to open here. This is what Admic is trying to do with the Dora mall.”

He has a point. For years the consultants have been preaching larger developments, increased car-borne shopping, better designs, scientific tenant mix, longer and more uniform opening hours, accessibility and parking. Despite the numerous malls that have sprung up over the last decade, only the BHV/Monoprix stores, Dunes in Verdun, the Spinneys (and presumably the new ABC mall in Ashrafieh) outlets currently come close to meeting these criteria.

One area where international standards are being met is the $350 million supermarket sector, where Monoprix, along with Spinneys, are consistently setting new benchmarks in service, professionalism and, most importantly, pricing.

“We [Monoprix and Spinneys] have spearheaded a revolution that has seen the price of fresh food come down,” says Abchee. “The consumer price index has seen prices increase by up to 5% in recent years but food has not even hit 1%.”

Supermarkets make up around 35% of the food spend in Lebanon. However, in most major European countries and the US and Canada it is around 70%, so there is room for a bit more growth. Abchee concedes that Lebanon will probably not hit the 70% mark any time soon and compares it to Italy, which has not embraced supermarkets with quite the same enthusiasm as its northern neighbors. He also scoffs at those who claim that the little (and not so little guys like Bou Khalil) are being squeezed by the big two. “Yes, others have suffered,” he says. “But if you don’t invest or reinvest in your companies, then you will face difficulties.”

As the tortoise might say.

September 3, 2003 0 comments
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Business

Bush’s flawed Middle East manifesto

by Claude Salhani September 3, 2003
written by Claude Salhani

Last month, Condoleezza Rice, Bush’s national security advisor, compared the present post-Iraq war situation in the Middle East to post World War II Europe. “America,” wrote Rice in her August 7 editorial published in the Washington Post, “committed itself to the long-term transformation of Europe.” She goes on to say: “…our policymakers set out to work for a Europe where another war was unthinkable.”

Her views – and quite naturally one would assume those of her boss – on the administration’s guidelines upon which to build peace and democracy in the Middle East, contain the thesis of the Bush administration’s manifesto regarding the future of the Middle East. It will most likely not work.

Rice advocates working with those in the Middle East who “seek progress toward greater democracy, tolerance, prosperity and freedom,” and advocates copying the European experiment and applying it to the Middle East.

While indeed a noble concept, Bush’s plan for spoon-feeding democracy and prosperity to the Middle East remains, nevertheless, one with great many shortfalls. The Bush administration may well find many similarities in post-WWII Europe and today’s Levant, but in truth, it’s the dissimilarities that abound.

Undeniably, the United States played an important role in guaranteeing the stability, and particularly the security, of Western Europe all throughout the long years of the Cold War. But one must not ignore the fact that a stable Europe would have never been a possibility without, first and foremost, the strong desire of the Europeans themselves to place conflict behind them. After two devastating world wars and economic disasters that ravaged the continent, the Europeans finally realized it was time to look ahead.

“In an inherently unstable world, only the primacy of law and stable institutions can guarantee co-operation among nations and hence peace,” declared Jacques Delors, a former European Commissioner and finance minister in Francois Mitterrand’s first government in 1981, during a speech delivered in 1997 on the history of building a unified Europe.

Finding leaders who sought progress, democracy and freedom in Europe in 1945 was not difficult. Alas, that is hardly the case in most of the Middle East today. Granted, there are many people of goodwill across the region with a strong desire for peace and who wish to see true democracy implemented. But how many of those in a position of leadership in the Arab world would willingly allow free elections without fear of losing their grip on power?

“Muslim leaders are failing, first, to provide justice (adl) and, second, to create the conditions for the existence of compassion and balance (ihsan) or knowledge (ilm) in their societies,” wrote Akbar S. Ahmed, the Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies at the American University in Washington, DC, in his book, Islam Under Siege. The US had hoped that the fall of Saddam would accentuate the drive for democracy. Instead, it appears to have crystallized anti-American feelings across the region. Jihadi Islamist fundamentalists are reported heading to Iraq for a chance to fight American soldiers. Two recent attacks against the Jordanian diplomatic mission and the UN headquarters in Baghdad, which killed representative Sergio Vieira de Mello and at least 20 others, reinforce the belief that the US is far from controlling the situation on the ground.

Following the capitulation of Nazi Germany in 1945, the old continent was ripe for a new start. Realization set in across Europe that war was not about to advance them, but rather regress socio-economic reforms. Western Europe came together in the face of a new threat – communism. “The memory of the failures of the inter-war years was still in the minds of everyone,” said Delors.

In Iraq, however, the enemy – extremist violence – comes from within. Additionally, the reconstruction of Germany was carried out mostly by local contractors, whereas in Iraq, the lucrative business deals are mostly being granted to US corporations.

Leaders such as Winston Churchill, who as early as September 1946 proposed establishing a United States of Europe, and West Germany’s Chancellor Konrad Adenauer emerged to rebuild the continent. But, perhaps, more importantly, visionaries such as Jean Monet and Robert Schuman – the instigators of a united Europe and the fathers of the modern-day European Community – were able to look into the future and envision a united Europe. “That is why the initiators of the community model, which gradually came into being with the treaties of Paris (1950) and Rome (1957) made a point of thinking creatively,” said Delors. “There was a new element at work this time around in that the idea was championed by statesmen. In other words, the ideal of transforming Europe had emerged out of the intellectual arena, as a political necessity of the utmost urgency,” said Delors.

That, regrettably, is far from being the case in the present-day Middle East, a region that until now has only spawned more iron-fisted despots or violent revolutions, than Adenauers or Schumans. Additionally, post-WWII Europe had managed to place aside its past differences, building together in unity. The ongoing Arab-Israeli dispute – seen by many as the nucleus of all continued unsettlement in the area – does not allow for a peaceful building process, yet. Neither does the education system in place in some Arab states, such as the Wahhabi-funded madrassas that fail to establish an educated elite needed to construct a brighter future for the region.

The first logical step, therefore, would be to address the leitmotif of Arab discontent and excuse for continued war footing that persists in some Arab states. It is important to point out that once the Arab-Israeli dispute is peacefully resolved, and the reason for maintaining a war stance dissipated, it will only be a matter of time before the urge for greater democratic reforms begins to be heard.

Which is what Bush hopes the “road map” will achieve by 2005. By then, the plan calls for a Palestinian and Jewish state living side-by-side in peace. It is also what they hoped jump-starting Iraqi democracy would accomplish. But don’t hold your breath. Road bumps such as the massive bus bomb that killed no less than 20 people in Jerusalem in mid-August and wounded another 100 are not about to make things easier for the peace process.

Rice talks about America’s long-term commitment to transform the region, but the Arabs are still far from convinced of two things that remain paramount before they can accept America as a full-fledged partner in the peace-building process. America and Western Europe – despite their differences – saw eye-to-eye on most major issues relating to the defense of the continent in the face of Soviet expansionism. Such is not the case in the Middle East, where the Arabs and the US greatly diverge on the Palestine/Israel issue.

Additionally, America must clearly demonstrate that it is indeed committed and here to stay (at least politically), as was the case in Europe. When the end of hostilities was announced on May 8th, 1945, aggression against US troops ceased. In contrast, in Iraq, over 140 US soldiers have lost their lives since Bush declared the end of major combat operations on May 1st. While no exact figures are available, some estimates place the number of Iraqis killed during the same period in the thousands. Many will argue that the situation for the average Iraqi today is much worse than it was before the war.

US troops were greeted throughout Europe as liberators. That is far from being the case in Iraq today, where anti-American sentiment appears to be on the increase and the security situation getting worse.Iraq, sitting on the world’s second-largest oil reserves, is only producing 750,000 barrels of oil per day, down from a pre-war mark that hovered around a million bpd. And that figure is down from 900,000 in June due to continued power cuts and acts of sabotage. As a result, Iraq is forced to import fuel for domestic consumption. Iraqis consume about 15 million liters (3.9 million gallons) of gasoline a day. The country can barely meet that need with domestic production. They use about 17 million liters of diesel, mostly for trucks. Currently, Iraqi refineries are producing only half that amount, according to U.S. military estimates. Ironically, oil is being imported from Kuwait and other countries to help cover the gap. Meanwhile, Iraqis blame the Americans for their ills. The hearts and minds of the Arab world the US had set out to conquer are being lost.

Yes, quite possibly, Bush, in his heart of hearts, is devoted to pursuing the “road map” to peace. Quite possibly, he believes that he can keep pushing the reluctant participants, prodding some here, coaxing others there, or even threatening some when needed. But, and here is the breaker, how committed would his successor be? Let’s assume the following scenario, just for the sake of argument. The situation in Iraq continues as it is for the next few years with a low-grade war of attrition being waged against US troops, who are forced to remain there. One American killed today, two more wounded tomorrow, another one or two killed the following day. Over two or three years, the casualties begin to add up and the electorate back home starts to get nervous. Not to mention the economic impact the continued occupation weighs on the American economy. (See Executive, August 2003)

Bush père found himself in a quite similar situation at the close of the first Gulf War in 1991. He had won a quick victory over Saddam Hussein, liberated Kuwait, freed the oil wells, defeated the Iraqi military and, for a short while, appeared to be a hero. But the domestic economic situation was suffering and that is what lost him the election to Bill Clinton. Bush junior could well find himself facing a similar conundrum.

Bush, meanwhile, remains committed. But if he looses the election in 2004 and his successor, possibly under electorate pressure, decides to bring the boys home and pull out of Iraq. Then what? American foreign policy has been known to suffer from severe attention deficit disorder in the past. Look at Lebanon; look at Somalia.

Secondly, the United States’ lack of objectivity in the Arab-Israeli conflict is another mark against it in trying to evenly mediate with both sides. There was no thorny issue comparable to the Palestinian-Israel one in post WWII Europe, and this made it easier for the US to be accepted as an equal partner in shaping the continent. Neither was there an issue of religion, which exists in the present context. Most of the Arab world continues to view the US war in Iraq as one of occupation and not as a war of liberation. Not to mention those who see it as a clash of civilization, as pointed out by Samuel Huntington.

This is where Europe (and the United Nations) can play a greater role in the peace building process. Europe is seen by Arabs as being friendlier to their cause, and naturally, they tend to trust Europeans more than they do the US. Rice, in her exposé, stresses the importance of including Europe and all free nations, “working in full partnership with those in the region who share our belief in the power of human freedom.”

But will the US accept to take a back seat now in the rebuilding of Iraq and allow Europe – including France and Germany, who opposed the war and were labeled “old Europe” by Donald Rumsfeld – to become engaged in Iraq? The answer to Bush’s manifesto for peace in the Middle East may lie in the answer to that question. Much as the US may dislike the idea, international participation may be the key to success.

September 3, 2003 0 comments
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Finance

Promising performances

by Tony Hchaime September 1, 2003
written by Tony Hchaime

The rather tired theory that the banking sector is one of the sectors most likely to spur an economic upturn was given a boost by the promising performance of leading Lebanese banks over the past six months.

The major turning point for both the Lebanese economy in general and the banking sector in particular was the Paris II donor conference held in November 2002. While no direct material benefits seem to have trickled through to the economy, the overall confidence in the domestic currency, coupled with the image of stability portrayed by the government, have seen a redirection of funds towards Lebanon’s leading banks.

Among those banks, Banque Audi stood out with a considerable 20% increase in total deposits during the first six months of 2003, reaching $5.1 billion, and overtaking its rival Byblos Bank, which added almost 8% in deposits at $4.3 billion. BLOM Bank maintained its position as the country’s largest commercial bank, with its deposit base growing by more than 13% to reach $7 billion by June 2003.

Banque Audi also managed a staggering 50% growth in net income for the first half of 2003, relative to the same period of 2002. The bank’s net income jumped from $17.54 million in H1/2002 to more than $26.4 million in H1/2003. While net interest and commission income failed to register substantial growth, the main contributor to the impressive growth recorded during 2003 emerged as income from financial operations. In fact, net income from financial operations jumped a staggering 220% during the first six months of the year, reaching $19.6 million and contributing more than 74% of the bank’s net profits for the period.

BLOM Bank recorded a growth in net income of just over 5% year-on-year, reaching $42.8 million, while Byblos Bank’s net profits grew almost 10% from their June 2002 levels, leveling at $24.7 million. Bank of Beirut’s net profits inched up 1% over the same period, reaching $9.8 million.

Elsewhere, total deposits in Lebanese banks grew by almost 5% during the first half of the year, reaching LL57.6 trillion. As such, total deposits grew by more than 12% year-on-year, compared to a modest growth of just over 8% for the full year 2002. The accelerated growth observed during the first half of 2003 is a clear reflection of the increased confidence in the sector in general.

Moreover, overall confidence in the Lebanese pound has been reflected in the gains in LBP deposits as opposed to deposits in foreign currencies. As such, deposits in LBP have reached 37% of total deposits in June 2003, the highest level seen since February 2001. This compares to only 29% in June of last year.

Such developments speak greatly about the perceived outlook for the Lebanese pound locally, as the gains achieved in Lira deposits during the first half of the year have occurred despite the dropping interest rates on LBP-denominated deposits. Average interest rates on LBP deposits have dropped from more than 9.3% in January of 2003, to less than 8.3% as of June. On the other hand, interest rates on dollar deposits have been relatively stable, holding between 3.5% and 3.8% over the same period.

Despite the considerable growth in deposits, however, Lebanese banks have been somewhat wary of the domestic credit market. Total claims on the private sector have been fairly stagnant over the past year. Total lending to the private sector remained virtually unchanged between June 2002 and June 2003, settling around LL22.8 trillion. This compares to a growth of around 2.5% for the full year 2002. With regards to currency affinity, no major change has been noted on the credit market in Lebanon, despite the considerable difference in interest rates between loans in LBP and foreign currencies. As such, the vast majority of lending still takes place in foreign currencies, mainly in the form of dollars. Almost 83% of total claims on the private sector are in the form of foreign currencies, compared to 17% for the LBP.

In essence, the lack of growth in the credit market, coupled with the overwhelming dominance of foreign currencies in the debt market, illustrate the overall reluctance of major domestic bankers to lend. While such a position may be justifiable given the inability of the Lebanese economy to sustain economic growth and stability, an easing of self-imposed restrictions on the financing market in Lebanon would substantially contribute to growth in investments and consumption, thereby promoting overall economic growth.

On a more positive note, however, the Lebanese banking sector’s exposure to the public sector has dropped somewhat during the first half of 2003, after registering a sizeable expansion in 2002. In effect, claims on the public sector dropped from an all-time high of LL26.8 trillion in January 2003, to around LL24.5 trillion by the end of June. While the reduced exposure to the public sector has not yet played in favor of the private sector, it does provide banks with the reduced risk exposure and increased liquidity to promote corporate and consumer financing in the future.

However, while regional and domestic economic and political developments greatly influenced the performance of Lebanese banks over the past year, the banking sector itself did not fail to provide its own share of major developments, contributing to the overall growth momentum.

In a survey conducted and published by Euromoney magazine, four Lebanese banks appeared on the list of the Top 250 Commercial Banks in Emerging Markets. BLOM Bank placed the highest among Lebanese banks in 157th place, gaining 19 places since the previous year. Banque de la Méditerrannée placed 160th, followed by Banque Audi in 174th place, and Byblos Bank in 208th. While none of the Lebanese banks made it into the top 10, BLOM Bank and Banque Audi managed to improve their positions significantly and seem capable of maintaining such a positive trend given recent developments.

These encouraging developments, coupled with the progress made by Lebanese banks in Syria, where BLOM Bank and BEMO Bank (in collaboration with Bank Al Saudi Al Fransi) have obtained licenses to operate privately owned banks, are all positive signs that the sector is playing its role in the economic recovery process.
 

September 1, 2003 0 comments
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Finance

The road to Cancun

by Joey Ghaleb September 1, 2003
written by Joey Ghaleb

Lebanon will be present in Cancun, Mexico for the World Trade Organization (WTO) meetings in early September as an observer, putting aside the empty chair position adopted in Doha in 2001 and reflecting the country’s commitment to accede to the WTO. Following two negotiation rounds – the first was in October 2002 and the second is slated for fall 2003 – Lebanon hopes to achieve member status by 2005.

Without debating globalization, the WTO is an evolving mechanism that regulates international trade. With over 145 member countries, a small economy that relies heavily on trade – as is the case of Lebanon – cannot develop and move forward if it opts to stay out of the global economy. Lebanon was a member of the GATT (founding institution of the WTO) and would have been automatically a member of the WTO had it not withdrawn due to the participation of Israel. New WTO members are facing tough scrutiny, whereas early members easily joined, and some, including many Arab countries, are having hard time digesting their WTO obligations.

The WTO has succeeded to a large extent in liberalizing trade and setting rules for a number of sectors but it has not yet addressed sectors that have a larger impact on developing nations – notably, agriculture and services. Awaiting further developments on that front, the WTO is entertaining a multilateral agreement on investment (MAI) five years after the OECD failed to do so, a major endeavor that, again, serves the purposes of developed countries, the main players in the market of international investment.

The EU and the United States in August 2003, agreed on a joint proposal with regards to agriculture. Farm subsidies amount to $300 billion a year and 96% of farmers living in developing countries are worse off because of subsidies, let alone consumers who are paying higher prices. The proposal that caps some trade payments (as a percentage of agricultural production) at 5% is seen by countries, including Brazil and India, as a shy move on the road to liberalizing the sector. After the failure of the Seattle trade talks in 1999, jeopardizing the Doha Development Agenda (a round of negotiations that addresses development issues) would put free trade at risk. And, without an agreement on agriculture, developing countries will feel that new rounds will offer them nothing.

In Cancun, countries will be asked whether they want to launch negotiations on international investment at the multilateral level and what would be the scope of that agreement. As of yet, countries regulate investment, be it portfolio or foreign direct investment (FDI), through bilateral agreements. But in the absence of a bilateral treaty, cross border investment remains unprotected and access to markets difficult. A MAI could address pre-establishment (access of investment to a market) and post-establishment issues (protection of existing investment). FTML, the parent company of Cellis, may not have invested in Lebanon if there was no bilateral agreement between Lebanon and France to protect investment. Investors need to be assured that in the case of foul play, their rights will be protected.

In addition, the ministerial meeting will assess the recent developments in the negotiations on the liberalization of services that began in 2000 and will review the work of the working group on competition policy – both of which are of key importance and relevance to Lebanon and the region.
In light of these major issues set to determine the future of international trade and investment, the obvious question that arises is whether Arab countries have a position or a proposal to put on the table in Cancun. It may be difficult to ask for a common Arab agenda given existing differences, even though Arab ministers frequently hold meetings, the last of which took place July 24 in Beirut. But it may be time for the region to become pro-active. The WTO mechanism may not benefit the interest of a country if that country fails to have its voice heard. Developing countries are becoming increasingly active under the WTO umbrella, with more and more proposals submitted to the WTO secretariat, a strategy that eventually led to incorporating many development issues into the Doha Development Agenda.

As of today, 10 Arab countries are full members of the WTO. Among them, are the poorest, such as Djibouti and Mauritania, and five with observer status, including Lebanon. However, the Arab region remains outside the circle of developing countries that are now taking the initiative of turning the WTO into an institution that serves their objectives. In the process of becoming pro-active, governments of emerging economies are investing in building local capacity and expertise in order to make informed decisions that will bind their trade and investment policies under the WTO framework. Once the policies are locked in, excluding exceptional circumstances, countries will be bound to the rules they agreed to follow. This basic principle has come to haunt countries, which opted for the fast-track accession to the WTO and are now facing difficulty in delivering on their commitments.

The backseat approach adopted so far by Arab countries in the WTO is mirrored by their low intra-regional trade (around 8% to 9%), their high dependence on oil and lack of economic diversification, and their protectionist trade regimes reflected by high tariff and non-tariff barriers. A large number of bilateral trade treaties have been signed amongst Arab countries, however, most are general and few aim to fully liberalize trade. Negative lists, exceptions and exemptions overshadow the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA), scheduled for 2005, which does not cover services like the movement of labor and other building blocks of a real economic bloc.

The silent voice of most Arab countries will not serve the purpose of deeper Arab integration into the global economy. The major challenge for the region is to get more engaged in the process by developing positions on the various issues raised in the Doha Development Agenda and not permitting developed and developing nations to hijack the process. If Macau and Malta can submit proposals and actively participate in the formulation of new WTO rules and agreements, maybe it is our turn to do the same.

September 1, 2003 0 comments
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Business

The night crawlers

by Anthony Mills September 1, 2003
written by Anthony Mills

Bashir Bassatne, the 30-year-old co-owner of Mandaloun, Asia and the soon-to-be-relaunched Rai, three of the biggest nightclubs on the Beirut’s nightlife circuit, is in a reflective mood. “I don’t think any clubs really hit their targets this summer. A lot of newcomers have entered the market with no experience in the club scene,” he said. “Some made money and some are going to lose a lot of money. It’s not going to last. It’s just a trend. The club business will go back to the people who know how to run it.”Over the last few years, Beirut’s flourishing but fickle nightclub sector has indeed become a magnet for young, wealthy, often foreign-educated, Lebanese wanting to cash in on an industry high on glamour and where the returns appear tantalizingly quick. Often using family money, these playboys-turned-club owners have pumped as much as $1 million each into a sector worth an estimated $36 million annually. “The money is easier to come by if you go to your family, or the family underwrites the loan,” said one clubber, who is friends with many of the sector’s new brat pack. And let’s face it, few banks will endorse loans in such an unpredictable sector. Unpredictable is a fair appraisal.

Recently, Beirut’s nightlife has been plagued by antiquated by-laws, bribery, reports of increased drug use and, yes, even a conspiracy theory that the government wants to shut them all down. But is Bassatne’s prediction that the bubble will burst reasoned analysis or merely sour grapes? As the nightclub/bar market mushrooms, the heady days of huge takings by a small clique of clubs are over. Bassatne, whose partners include his brothers and five university friends, has seen his profits fall by 50% in the last year alone. Six years ago, in a relatively virgin sector, things were different. “Within a year, I had recouped my investment in Rai and a 30% profit,” he said. Mandaloun, Taj and Asia may currently rule the night, but with over 100 other nightspots plying their trade, the competition is cutthroat. “Whenever one comes up, another must die,” said Bassatne.It is not an easy game, especially in a market that is violently seasonal. Christmas, Adha and summer provide enough revellers to go around, but the remaining eight months of the year offer slim picking for a saturated market. Clubs close at the blink of an eye. “It’s a very tough market,” said Ramzi Adada, a partner of Bassatne, who also has a stake in Zinc in Ashrafieh and Japs in Faraya. The nightclub explosion has, according to one owner, “broken the dynamic” of the established institutions, which have seen revenues diverted as clubbers try out the new places. “It’s fierce and uncontrolled competition,” he said, “and most of them [clubs] are losing.”Another owner, a Paris-educated banker, whose parents stumped up his share of investment, compared the current stampede to invest in Beirut nightclubs to the NASDAQ in early 2000, when anyone with a bit of money and no experience, invested and got burned. “Today in Lebanon, anyone with cash is trying to open either a nightclub or a restaurant,” he said. “It’s not a healthy situation at all.” Fadi Saba, who owns two thirds of Zinc in Ashrafieh, believes it is all down to the perceived revenues. “They have high expectations,” he said. “They think they can make it in four months. But it’s not a game.” Given the unreasonable expectations, petulance is never far from the surface. Saba explains that disputes often arise when the profits fail to materialize. “Investors will accuse their managers of theft and it’s downhill from there on.”The gold rush has however, forced a change in investment strategy. Aware of how quickly a club can fizzle and die, today’s investors are now spreading their risk across multiple venues. “When we only had three or four clubs in town, obviously the risk was less,” said one club owner. “Now no one is going to be crazy enough to put all their eggs in one basket.”“It used to be easy to convince one person to invest $300,000,” recalls 32-year-old Saba. “Now the maximum someone will come in for is around $70,000.”“A new nightclub can have as many as 15 partners, whereas before it was one or two,” said Bassatne, whose personal “spread” involves a stake in the $800,000 Mandaloun, and a joint $325,000 and $800,000 in Rai and Asia, respectively. Another $600,000 to $700,000 will be pumped into the new Rai (Bassatne refutes allegations that the original Rai lost it’s competitive edge, blaming the closure on Rue Monot’s agonizing roadworks), which he admitted will have to wait till the market eventually reverts to its regular rhythm and the fly-by-nights have been spat out. Nonetheless, he has also had to diversify. His new ventures include restaurants and a sandwich bar on Bliss Street.The multiple-investor strategy does however, help market the venues, with each investor “working” his circle of friends and acquaintances to ensure patronage. Bassatne spends much of his time securing the favor of the 500-strong local party animals as well as the sizable, and often wealthy, Lebanese expatriates and Gulf Arabs, who flock to Beirut during the holiday season. It also helps spread the costs of building and renovation, which can run over the $1 million dollar mark, as clubs become bigger and flashier.Greater competition has forced nightclub owners to exploit the Lebanese penchant for conspicuous consumption. “People want to show off,” said Ramzi Adada, with a twinkle in his eye “and we want to help them show off.” Adada and his fellow Rai partners, claim to have introduced the “champagne celebration,” a fanfare of sparklers and a bevy of beauties that accompanied every bottle of champagne purchased. In true Lebanese fashion, another top club got hold of the idea and wrote it large (literally). Today, anyone buying $35,000 worth of Salmanazars (equivalent to 12 regular sized bottles) of champagne is immortalized on the club’s “Wall of Fame” or, as local clubbers call it, liste des cons (list of idiots). So far the wall boasts around 15 names. Ramzi Adada recalled how one Lebanese customer spent $22,000 in two hours in Rai. However, such incidents are rare. The image of wealthy Arabs flocking to Beirut for a marathon session of beaches, babes and booze with checkbook cocked is a myth, said Bassatne’s brother Raed. “We’re not getting the big, big spenders and when they come here, they don’t want to really overdo it because we are such a small society.”Other clubs use more time-honored methods to draw in the crowds, relying on what are know within the industry as mafateeh or “keys,” who provide a small but potent stable of beautiful women, who mingle, cajole, look good and even get up and dance on the bar if there is a lull in the evening. Although their existence is never admitted, their clout is considerable. One thriving nightspot shut down (officially for redecoration) after a “misunderstanding” with the “keys.”“These girls work the clubs that have a reputation for hosting high-maintenance ladies,” said one club owner. “A smile here and a compliment there is sometimes all it takes to make even the ugliest guy feel special, and when that happens, he spends and he comes back. Their handlers aren’t so much pimps as they are our partners.” But it is not just supply, demand and a bit of rented cleavage that dictates the market. Some investors have lost money because of antiquated laws and run-ins with the local authorities. Late last year, 28-year-old Marwan Kazan (he of the once popular FUBAR at Sodeco Square) and seven friends, invested $400,000 in Nabab opposite St. Joseph’s Church in the Monot district. Invoking a law that stipulates a nightclub must be a certain distance from a place of worship, the authorities shut it down two months later, after the priests complained of drunkenness, drug taking and indecent behavior. Kazan, a veteran by local standards, has bounced back and now (along with five other investors) has 20% in the $450,000 Taj, which replaced FUBAR and a 10% percent stake in the $550,000 Moorea beach club (12 investors). Moorea, explains Kazan, is modeled on La Voile Rouge in St Tropez. “It’s practically a night-club during the day,” he said, adding that he plans to open FUBAR II, which he expects to cost around $1 million. He too bemoans the rise of the fly-by-night club culture. “Suddenly anyone with $50,000 in his pocket started opening pubs,” he laments. “It hurt us.”Drugs have also taken their toll. Ecstasy may give a designer high, but it’s a downer for bar takings. “It affects our sales,” said Bassatne. “Instead of coming and having a bottle of vodka, this new generation just pop a pill and drink water all night.” And although not rampant, the proud Lebanese habit of kickbacks has also eaten into the bottom line, but the bosses are philosophical. “You have to bribe here and there,” admits Adada. “I wouldn’t call it a bribe,” said Kazan. “You become friends with these people and you offer them a bottle or something.” Fadi Saba speaks of the need to offer, “a good dinner and a bottle of whisky from time to time.”There is however a flip side and it pays to be well connected in a country rife with red tape. “Everyone has connections,” said Kazan. Asked if he used his to deal with problems in his clubs, “Absolutely. Who doesn’t?”Despite the unregulated market, Kazan believes that with the right degree of public sector assistance the sector could be a gold mine (he said that in Nabab’s short life, he and his partners were able to recoup 25% of the initial investment). “The government should see that and try to help us out,” he said, criticizing the overly aggressive and threatening manner in which some clubs, including BO18 and Acid, were raided by security forces searching for drugs. The sector was flummoxed by such high profile clampdowns and their impact on the tourist trade. It is not surprising therefore that many saw the raids as part of a cynical plot to smear clubland with a reputation of drugs and debauchery and in doing so, boost the cachet of Maarad. “It’s their duty to come in,” said Kazan. “How they come in is the problem. It’s not exactly attractive for the tourist. He might think ten times before coming back.” And “coming back” is what it’s all about.
 

September 1, 2003 0 comments
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Business

Out of reach

by Thomas Schellen September 1, 2003
written by Thomas Schellen

Information and Communications Technology (ICT) stands undisputed as the sector with the greatest importance for any country seeking to position itself at the forefront of the “knowledge” economy. Banking and education are key, but manufacturing automation, health care, hospitality, logistics, media and all other advanced services industries depend on ICT. Modern government and public sector administration are increasingly being defined by ICT. The sector’s eminence in national economies has been thrust into the limelight through fabled cases such as Ireland’s 1990s record rise from European economic backwater to high-growth technology and services hub.

To Lebanon, Ireland’s rise was an oft-quoted example in discussions on the economic and social potential of ICT because the population and labor market in both countries were similar. Subsequent convergent phases of global new economy optimism and Lebanon’s own developmental hopes in the mid to late 90s, led the country and its business elite to revel in the anticipation of becoming a regional ICT hub. Today, while still aspiring to become a center of technology for the Middle East, Lebanon is in some respects even further away from realizing its dream. In other respects, the country has been defending its potential for leadership in Middle Eastern ICT but has yet to claim the ground of real growth.

Luckily, the ICT industry has an immense number of nuances and niches and thus being a center for ICT can mean many things. “Every country wants to be an ICT hub,” said Charbel Fakhoury, Eastern Mediterranean manager for international software manufacturer Microsoft. “Lebanon went through some steps and didn’t take others. I think a hub is an evolution. It doesn’t happen over night.”

From hardware to software to services, telecommunications, mobile data networks, computer training, web design, content provision, e-commerce and online banking, the ICT sector indeed has far too many facets to see a single country take the region’s leadership role in every respect, or even to allow for a wholesale review of the industry in one country.

To quote a case in point, several companies over the past two years have had to exit Lebanon’s computer assembly and retail business or severely reduce the number of outlets, while other local assemblers and their main chip supplier, Intel, confirmed an increase in assembly and sales of PCs. “The Lebanese assembly market has been growing steadily over the past few years,” said Maan Ahmadie, regional channel manager for Intel, the world’s leading chip manufacturer. “We have recorded around 20% to 30% growth in the past three years, and we expect to see this trend continue.”

However, data on the exact size of the local hardware market tends to be inconclusive. As an expert from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) observed at a Beirut conference earlier this year, no Arab country has yet carried out a detailed ICT survey. “It is difficult to put a dollar value as such on the Lebanese assembly market,” Ahmadie conceded, “but, in terms of channel members, we have around 300 resellers, working in different market sectors, from PC assembly for homes and small offices to servers and mobile computers.”

Estimates on hardware penetration vary. One local company, Computer Echo, claims it assembles some 40,000 PCs annually, supplying about one third of the market. “Business has been growing very fast over the past four years,” said Computer Echo marketing manager Tony Abboud, reporting an annual sales growth of about 20%. Other local assemblers and resellers estimated the figure of personal computers entering the market each year to be slightly lower, at around 60,000. A matter of general agreement is that locally assembled computers hold an 80% share of the market, with units going mostly to home users and small businesses. Larger companies and institutions are said to rely more strongly on imported, brand name equipment that account for the remaining 20%.

Assembly of computers from foreign-made components is a viable business. However, neither profit margins nor local value-added are particularly high, and exports are not necessarily an outstanding perspective. Computer Echo distributes its assembled PCs through large and small local resellers, with only sporadic exports, mostly to West Africa. Regional exports are not on Abboud’s mind, because satisfying local demand is consuming all his time. And although Computer Echo benefits from Intel rebate and promotion programs, assemblers in Jordan and Egypt receive the same advantages, he said. “I don’t see what kind of a market I would have in Jordan.”

For Lebanese software companies, however, exports are a question of sustainable existence. “We will be a really strong industry only if we are exporting,” said Fares Kobeissy, president of the Association of the Lebanese Software Industry. “Our overall strategic objective is to open markets and create a highly exportable software industry,” agreed Ali Shamseddine, vice president of the organization. Like Kobeissy, he is founder and CEO of a Lebanese software company. According to figures from a joint 2003 research paper by Lebanon’s Office of the Minister of State for Administrative Reform (OMSAR) and the UNDP Lebanon office, Lebanon’s ICT industry consists of about 500 computer-related companies, of which “about 200 small and medium sized software companies employ more than 3,000 people, and can play a major role in the development of an information-based national economy.”

The size of the software industry also is a figure of some dispute, though. To Kobeissy and Shamseddine, the realm of viable software development companies extends to dozens rather than hundreds, with hundreds rather than thousands of employees. When their new-founded association approached potential members, they contacted somewhere over 50 companies and succeeded in convincing 15 to join their ranks. The software section of Lebanon’s largest ICT industry association, the Professional Computer Association (PCA), groups less than 10 companies out of roughly 70 PCA member firms. Notable as the size problem is in assessing ICT capabilities here, it is not to say that this industry doesn’t hold some extremely interesting potential. Firms based here have sold their software solutions to major banking and large retail enterprises in Europe, whereas other Lebanese development houses have a stable clientele among small and medium sized enterprises in the Middle East. “While Jordan and Egypt seem to have a higher percentage of projects where they write code under outsourcing contracts for clients abroad, Lebanon seems to have a higher share of own development,” Tony Prince, Intel’s regional business development manager, told Executive.

According to Prince, Intel has become increasingly interested in Lebanon. In July, the firm hired a developer relations manager to closer interact with software companies; Intel also this year participated in numerous public and private sector projects, ranging from installing a high-powered server at a software company to setting up or testing of wireless data technology (WiFi) in hotels, stores and the BCD. Later this year, the company hopes to finalize an agreement over establishing a developer facility at a Lebanese university. “We are in advanced stages of negotiations with AUB for setting up a banking competence center,” Prince said.

Lebanon is no exception to the global ICT evolution whereby services and solutions provision is gaining in economic importance over hardware manufacturing and equipment sales. ICT multinationals thus have come to attach great importance to finding, especially in promising locations, as many partners as possible who work with their technologies. The chipmaker apparently hopes that the banking competence center, with its emphasis on the area where Lebanese software is of highest regional repute, will attract developers to work with Intel tools. While investing into local capacity building and providing technology transfer, the multinational would profit by bringing Lebanese developers into its flock. “Our reward is that the applications are optimized for the Intel platform,” Prince said.

It is within the same logic that other multinational firms confirm their commitment to the Lebanese ICT industry, although the market here is rarely even worth a footnote in their annual reports. Networking equipment manufacturer Cisco Systems thus maintains an active office in Beirut, although business hasn’t been strong. “From a Cisco perspective, the market here has been flat since last year, and we expect another flat year,” said Hussam Kayyal, Cisco general manager Levant.

Waiting out the time until the public and private sector are ready for deploying new data infrastructure makes it all the more important to maintain a good rapport with the market. “We are optimistic,” Kayyal said. “We are looking at the coming couple of years as development years for Cisco in Lebanon, to spend time with partners and educate them, especially government agencies, to use IT in cost cutting.”

The company actively supports the training of ICT students and computer professionals as Cisco certified experts. Kayyal’s team works with agencies and professional associations such as IDAL and PCA but also with non-governmental organizations and educational institutions. The manager said Cisco intends to participate in three community projects before the end of the year. Working together with active NGOs, the multinational would invest $600,000 into these ICT community projects.

However, it is also worth mentioning that Lebanon’s ICT development initiatives not only originate from foreign firms. A project for a new tech zone, called the Beirut Emerging Technology Zone (BETZ), is high up on the list of initiatives managed by the Investment and Development Authority of Lebanon, IDAL. After several years of pondering over terms of reference and proper procedures, a feasibility study for the project was conducted last year (by an American company; the grant financing the study came from USAID). Many in the industry say that a tech zone would be of great importance to improve Lebanon’s chances in the march towards ICT leadership, and yet there seems to be some uncertainty over the BETZ concept. “Any tech park should drive the country to be a producer, moving companies to an environment where production is cheaper. But what is the target of BETZ?” asked Shamseddine and Kobeissy, in comments resonating those of several other industry members. “Our claim is that nobody knows. We have a vision but we know that none of the actors know.” Executive requested an interview with IDAL chairman, Dr. Samih Barbir, to find out about the zone’s concept and the agency’s latest activities in context of Investment Law 360, which rates ICT projects as particularly support-worthy. Unfortunately, Barbir is not currently available for interviews on this topic, the agency responded. Meanwhile, the Lebanese information technology community has been readying itself for the annual Termium exhibition, with statements of growth expectations and fine business tidings. “We are changing Termium to become more of an IT-experience trade show where companies can show products by stating IT success stories,” PCA president Jalal Fawaz told Executive. After two editions of partnership with the Dubai-based Gitex IT expo brand, Termium this September is back to its own devices for attracting exhibitors and visitors. “It will be the same companies and the same people as every year,” said the CEO of a Lebanese software-manufacturing firm between parmesan-laden salad and main dish at the press lunch announcing the conference. “But some companies cannot afford to stay away,” he moaned. Of course, nowhere in the recent past have ICT shows been able to emulate quite the same mix of geeky pleasures and relentless business optimism they were hallmarked for before 2001.

September 1, 2003 0 comments
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Business

Survival of the fittest

by Thomas Schellen September 1, 2003
written by Thomas Schellen

If Nasdaq trends and international industry surveys can be believed, ICT is not only returning to a growth cycle more moderate than the last spurt that ended in 2000/2001, but is also more sustainable. As happened with the ICT industry worldwide, Lebanon’s information economy also felt struck by the bursting of the e-bubble and was shaken by the weakness of business confidence that flooded planet earth over the past 24 months. On top of that, there were the socio and politico-economic troubles of the region to contend with. However, living through these experiences did not fundamentally alter the many concerns and issues the local industry has to confront.

Take violations of intellectual property rights (IPR). “Basically, the level of piracy on all fronts is more or less the same,” said Walid Nasser, a lawyer who locally represents international organizations concerned with IPR protection. IPR is a crucial concern to anyone in the knowledge economy, from software engineers to content providers. Initiated at a global level, software piracy and theft of intellectual property have been exposed. According to the international industry pressure group, Business Software Alliance (BSA), an eight-year high-powered campaign has helped reduce software piracy as a worldwide phenomenon from 49% in 1994 to 39% in 2002. In the Middle East, the BSA reports, the margin of piracy reduction over this period was the highest of all world regions, from 80% to 49%. However, while piracy was reduced in Lebanon, the rate of suppression was much less impressive than in the UAE or Israel. With 74% percent of piracy (down from 83% a few years ago), Lebanon still ranks among the world’s least IPR-enforced countries. The government’s ICT experts at the OMSAR technology unit could vigorously refute recent unfounded claims in a report by the US trade delegate that Lebanese ministries operate on pirated software, but the fact remains that this country is listed among the 25 nations – 13th to be precise – with the highest software piracy rates. To make software piracy non-palatable to corporate offenders – in reality, no one goes after the individual – legal recourse is essential. And here, enforcement is key. “We want court decisions with amounts that really deter,” Nasser said. “The laws are really good, they just lack muscle. We are still dragging our feet and treating this as a minor offense.”

Enforcement is better now than it was immediately after passage of the 1999 IPR law, but not decisively so. Taking a software pirate to court in Lebanon consumes much time and cash, and can take between two to four years and cost between $5,000 and $10,000 in legal expenses, according to Nasser. “At the end of the day, you will get a court decision in your favor if the file is handled properly,” he said. “But if the fine is no deterrent, you’re wasting your money.”

So far, legal battles for IPR protection in Lebanon have been fought and financed by multinational corporations with regional interests. Although they often decried the unfairness of businesses working from unlicensed copies of their products, local software developers have neither joined the BSA (and one couldn’t blame them; the BSA is a costly club for the major players) nor pushed for prosecution of violators. However, an improved economy and greater demand for Lebanese software will see an increase in piracy. “The more the sector will grow, the more piracy will become a problem,” admitted Ali Shamseddine, vice president of the Association of the Lebanese Software Industry (ALSI).

The Lebanese telecommunications infrastructure is as sore a point as it was before the spring 2001 crash of the internet bubble. Bandwidth for connecting to the global data backbone remains limited and expensive, and the country is in danger of losing its edge of having a more advanced mobile network than other countries in the region. In the view of Jalal Fawaz, president of the Professional Computer Association (PCA), next to the general business concerns that relate to the country’s economic environment, the completion of the telecommunications infrastructure through establishment of a public data network tops the list of industry-specific concerns for local ICT companies. The same concern is high on the mind of Intel Corporation’s regional business development manager, Tony Prince. “I would like to see an improved infrastructure,” he said, “better broadband would be a necessary condition for the evolution of the business. People such as ourselves could do business better.” According to Kamal Shehadeh, an economist specialized in regulatory frameworks and telecommunications affairs, the non-development of telecommunications infrastructure in the past few years has had a negative impact on the entire ICT industry by creating technical availability bottlenecks as well as access barriers through high prices. “Access to broadband is a very expensive proposition at current tariffs,” he said. “Prices for regular phone connectivity to the internet have come down, but are still very high, even prohibitive.”

A contributing factor to the problem is that the state-run communications infrastructure network would presently not be able to handle a flood of demand for high-speed internet access, giving the monopoly provider absolutely no incentive to encourage demand for broadband access. This market structure issue reflects how the monopolistic nature of Lebanese telecommunications has negated the chance of establishing a legally licensed private sector data structure, Shehadeh reasoned. The only way to change the situation is to license alternative providers, such as the private sector data network operators. “Is it a realistic and reasonable request? Yes. Can it be done? Yes,” he said. “It has been done in other economies less developed than this one.” But at the end of the day, this is a political decision, he added. Retaining talent is the next headache that Lebanese ICT companies face today just as they did three and four years ago. “A second main concern is the human resources issue,” Fawaz said, “how to create growth to keep people inside the country.”

In a best case scenario, a talented young software engineer or computer science graduate will leave Lebanon in search of the advanced training and experience, which she or he can acquire in the technologically most developed countries. This person will stay abroad for a limited time and at some stage return to Lebanon with the will to put the acquired expertise to work in the local economy.

In practical reality, Lebanese ICT companies, face the daily threat of losing human resources, often because a company cannot offer their best minds the advancement they seek, even if that company wants to keep them. “We have had ten years of ICT brain drain,” Shamseddine said, “and the only way to bring them back is to have proper jobs, properly paid.” In the experience of ALSI president Fares Kobeissy, Lebanon’s narrow ICT career market is a clear impediment. “Our industry has upward mobility as a requirement,” he said. “People need to grow into better positions and better jobs.” What acerbates the problem for the companies in the local ICT industry is that their high share of labor cost translates into extra-heavy additional burdens of National Social Security Funds contributions. Exempting ICT companies from income tax would alleviate the burden, suggested Kobeissy and Shamseddine. “We want labor laws different from the ones existing today,” said Michel Nseir, head of the PCA software committee. He admonished that the inflexibility of regulations (designed to protect professionals in labor contracts) disallows for effective subcontracting and temporary project-based work agreements. Additionally, Nseir asked for adjustments to visa regulations, which would make it easier to bring in tech experts from countries such as India.

Intel’s Prince would wish for people purchasing ICT equipment to receive a break from Value-Added Tax to reduce the cost of ownership. With such a catalogue of needs and concerns, it becomes quite clear that the Lebanese ICT companies must see more than an improvement of conditions in the worldwide climate of their industry. Doubting existing mechanisms for investment promotion, companies are crying out for comprehensive public sector support of this industry, which its members consider as one of the top prospects for Lebanese economic leadership in the region and eventually beyond. For the moment, however, the mood is strained. “The way things are going, the policy of the government is destroying what little we have in IT today,” Nseir said. “New investors in tech are not encouraged, and instead of growing, we are sleeping. IT is suffering terribly. The only firms that were able to make it were those that could keep up in the local market and expand in export markets.”

“It is very hard these days to do business in Lebanon related to information technology,” concurred an investor involved in the sector. A big weeding out is taking its course, and only the strongest companies have any prospects.

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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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