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Business

Survival of the fittest

by Thomas Schellen September 1, 2003
written by Thomas Schellen

If Nasdaq trends and international industry surveys can be believed, ICT is not only returning to a growth cycle more moderate than the last spurt that ended in 2000/2001, but is also more sustainable. As happened with the ICT industry worldwide, Lebanon’s information economy also felt struck by the bursting of the e-bubble and was shaken by the weakness of business confidence that flooded planet earth over the past 24 months. On top of that, there were the socio and politico-economic troubles of the region to contend with. However, living through these experiences did not fundamentally alter the many concerns and issues the local industry has to confront.

Take violations of intellectual property rights (IPR). “Basically, the level of piracy on all fronts is more or less the same,” said Walid Nasser, a lawyer who locally represents international organizations concerned with IPR protection. IPR is a crucial concern to anyone in the knowledge economy, from software engineers to content providers. Initiated at a global level, software piracy and theft of intellectual property have been exposed. According to the international industry pressure group, Business Software Alliance (BSA), an eight-year high-powered campaign has helped reduce software piracy as a worldwide phenomenon from 49% in 1994 to 39% in 2002. In the Middle East, the BSA reports, the margin of piracy reduction over this period was the highest of all world regions, from 80% to 49%. However, while piracy was reduced in Lebanon, the rate of suppression was much less impressive than in the UAE or Israel. With 74% percent of piracy (down from 83% a few years ago), Lebanon still ranks among the world’s least IPR-enforced countries. The government’s ICT experts at the OMSAR technology unit could vigorously refute recent unfounded claims in a report by the US trade delegate that Lebanese ministries operate on pirated software, but the fact remains that this country is listed among the 25 nations – 13th to be precise – with the highest software piracy rates. To make software piracy non-palatable to corporate offenders – in reality, no one goes after the individual – legal recourse is essential. And here, enforcement is key. “We want court decisions with amounts that really deter,” Nasser said. “The laws are really good, they just lack muscle. We are still dragging our feet and treating this as a minor offense.”

Enforcement is better now than it was immediately after passage of the 1999 IPR law, but not decisively so. Taking a software pirate to court in Lebanon consumes much time and cash, and can take between two to four years and cost between $5,000 and $10,000 in legal expenses, according to Nasser. “At the end of the day, you will get a court decision in your favor if the file is handled properly,” he said. “But if the fine is no deterrent, you’re wasting your money.”

So far, legal battles for IPR protection in Lebanon have been fought and financed by multinational corporations with regional interests. Although they often decried the unfairness of businesses working from unlicensed copies of their products, local software developers have neither joined the BSA (and one couldn’t blame them; the BSA is a costly club for the major players) nor pushed for prosecution of violators. However, an improved economy and greater demand for Lebanese software will see an increase in piracy. “The more the sector will grow, the more piracy will become a problem,” admitted Ali Shamseddine, vice president of the Association of the Lebanese Software Industry (ALSI).

The Lebanese telecommunications infrastructure is as sore a point as it was before the spring 2001 crash of the internet bubble. Bandwidth for connecting to the global data backbone remains limited and expensive, and the country is in danger of losing its edge of having a more advanced mobile network than other countries in the region. In the view of Jalal Fawaz, president of the Professional Computer Association (PCA), next to the general business concerns that relate to the country’s economic environment, the completion of the telecommunications infrastructure through establishment of a public data network tops the list of industry-specific concerns for local ICT companies. The same concern is high on the mind of Intel Corporation’s regional business development manager, Tony Prince. “I would like to see an improved infrastructure,” he said, “better broadband would be a necessary condition for the evolution of the business. People such as ourselves could do business better.” According to Kamal Shehadeh, an economist specialized in regulatory frameworks and telecommunications affairs, the non-development of telecommunications infrastructure in the past few years has had a negative impact on the entire ICT industry by creating technical availability bottlenecks as well as access barriers through high prices. “Access to broadband is a very expensive proposition at current tariffs,” he said. “Prices for regular phone connectivity to the internet have come down, but are still very high, even prohibitive.”

A contributing factor to the problem is that the state-run communications infrastructure network would presently not be able to handle a flood of demand for high-speed internet access, giving the monopoly provider absolutely no incentive to encourage demand for broadband access. This market structure issue reflects how the monopolistic nature of Lebanese telecommunications has negated the chance of establishing a legally licensed private sector data structure, Shehadeh reasoned. The only way to change the situation is to license alternative providers, such as the private sector data network operators. “Is it a realistic and reasonable request? Yes. Can it be done? Yes,” he said. “It has been done in other economies less developed than this one.” But at the end of the day, this is a political decision, he added. Retaining talent is the next headache that Lebanese ICT companies face today just as they did three and four years ago. “A second main concern is the human resources issue,” Fawaz said, “how to create growth to keep people inside the country.”

In a best case scenario, a talented young software engineer or computer science graduate will leave Lebanon in search of the advanced training and experience, which she or he can acquire in the technologically most developed countries. This person will stay abroad for a limited time and at some stage return to Lebanon with the will to put the acquired expertise to work in the local economy.

In practical reality, Lebanese ICT companies, face the daily threat of losing human resources, often because a company cannot offer their best minds the advancement they seek, even if that company wants to keep them. “We have had ten years of ICT brain drain,” Shamseddine said, “and the only way to bring them back is to have proper jobs, properly paid.” In the experience of ALSI president Fares Kobeissy, Lebanon’s narrow ICT career market is a clear impediment. “Our industry has upward mobility as a requirement,” he said. “People need to grow into better positions and better jobs.” What acerbates the problem for the companies in the local ICT industry is that their high share of labor cost translates into extra-heavy additional burdens of National Social Security Funds contributions. Exempting ICT companies from income tax would alleviate the burden, suggested Kobeissy and Shamseddine. “We want labor laws different from the ones existing today,” said Michel Nseir, head of the PCA software committee. He admonished that the inflexibility of regulations (designed to protect professionals in labor contracts) disallows for effective subcontracting and temporary project-based work agreements. Additionally, Nseir asked for adjustments to visa regulations, which would make it easier to bring in tech experts from countries such as India.

Intel’s Prince would wish for people purchasing ICT equipment to receive a break from Value-Added Tax to reduce the cost of ownership. With such a catalogue of needs and concerns, it becomes quite clear that the Lebanese ICT companies must see more than an improvement of conditions in the worldwide climate of their industry. Doubting existing mechanisms for investment promotion, companies are crying out for comprehensive public sector support of this industry, which its members consider as one of the top prospects for Lebanese economic leadership in the region and eventually beyond. For the moment, however, the mood is strained. “The way things are going, the policy of the government is destroying what little we have in IT today,” Nseir said. “New investors in tech are not encouraged, and instead of growing, we are sleeping. IT is suffering terribly. The only firms that were able to make it were those that could keep up in the local market and expand in export markets.”

“It is very hard these days to do business in Lebanon related to information technology,” concurred an investor involved in the sector. A big weeding out is taking its course, and only the strongest companies have any prospects.

September 1, 2003 0 comments
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Business

Q&A: Yassine Dogmoch

by Executive Editors September 1, 2003
written by Executive Editors

E: Senator Dogmoch, your group has recently stepped up its local investments. How do you evaluate the investment climate in Lebanon?

YD: I believe every investor has to see the glass as half full. The Dogmoch Group of companies has a presence in all Arab countries, with activities in different sectors, be it industry, trade, Internet, transportation, shipping and forwarding, airplanes etc. As a mid-sized enterprise with a presence in several countries, we decided to establish the base of our undertakings in Lebanon.

E: Why motivated you to this decision?

YD: Lebanon offers many advantages in terms of taxation, through the flexibility of the banking system, the climate, or the high quality of human resources. You find more human capacities and resources in Lebanon than in other Arab countries. Investment in the Arab countries hinges on the security of capital. This security is provided in Lebanon to no lesser a degree than in other parts of the world. Certainly, Lebanon will be the first country to profit if there is progress in resolving the Middle East problem. These are some reasons why we have opted for Lebanon.

E: You recently acquired a major share in Bartercard Lebanon. Was that your first major investment here?

YD: No. Bartercard is one of over 30 companies in which we have invested in Lebanon. Where do you see the best current investment prospects in Lebanon, and what projects did you find rewarding?

YD: In tourism. This year is the best in a while, and the country still needs many projects in the industry. We are in the hotel business and also have recently established a company called Cruise Med, for the rental of boats. We established it three months ago and now have 11 yachts, measuring between six and 24 meters. This business was a success from the start. Some days all boats are rented.

E: When you started investing here, did you encounter difficulties?

YD: For any project you start in Lebanon, in tourism or industry, you receive support from the authorities. There are no stones thrown in your way. In tourism projects, one can request loans at a very low interest, subsidized by the central bank, and this will be approved.

E: Did you work with IDAL?

YD: We are involved in a project with IDAL in Tripoli involving the construction of a car park and reorganization of the Gamal Abdel Nasser Square in central Tripoli.

E: Overall, then, you would say that as investor you do not find it difficult here?

YD:Lebanon has ideal circumstances for the investor, better than in any European or Arab country. If you want something from the authorities here, it is processed quickly. Even as a German in Germany I have not experienced that. To acquire a construction permit, for instance, it takes a month here, and one year in Germany.

E: What is the size of the Dogmoch Group’s investment portfolio in Lebanon?

YD: I believe that it is a sizeable amount for this country. In comparison to the activities of our group, 50 percent of our investments are in Lebanon, and that is a lot.

E: Is there anything that you would wish for to be different for investors?

YD: If some German or European investors knew the conditions and environment here, they would not hesitate to invest in Arab countries, Lebanon among them. The perspectives here are better than anywhere else.

E: Do you have further plans for major projects in Lebanon?

YD: We want to launch passenger-only sea transportation between Tyre, Sidon, Byblos and Tripoli. It will combine regular transportation and sightseeing. Based on experiences with the boat rental project, I have discussed this program for coastal transport with the transport minister, Najib Mikati. This could take some pressure off the road network. I hope that we will implement it within the next two years.

E: Then it will be related to tourism?

YD: If we use hovercraft it would be a tourism project, but operate year round. There’s a small problem that can be overcome. The sea in these parts is not very calm. But with the latest hovercraft, transport can be quick and reduce disturbances. On a calm sea, it will be a very interesting affair.

September 1, 2003 0 comments
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Best Sellers

Dealing direct

by Natacha Tohme October 15, 2001
written by Natacha Tohme

Jihad Murr has got himself a promising

little startup. Yep, the very same Jihad

Murr who’s the executive manager of

MTV and RML as well as 51 % stakeholder

in a $4 million investment to establish a

Virgin megastore downtown. Nonetheless

Murr confesses that it’s his newly sprung

business, a direct mail order company

called GetForLess, that’s dearest to him.

“I had this idea a long time ago,” says

Murr. But to realize it he wanted someone

experienced and trustworthy to handle operations.

Enter long-time friend Alain Arab,

general manager and shareholder, along

with Murr’s brother Carl. The trio established

GetForLess, which started operations

in June 1999, on an initial investment of

$200,000. It is 60% owned by Murr.

GetForLess sells merchandise through a

catalogue published every 45 days and an ecommerce

site. “It demands huge investments,”

says Murr. “Every 45 days we have

a running cost of around $80,000.” A big

chunk goes into printing the catalogue,

which is distributed for free. Ordinarily

60,000 copies are printed, costing about

$30,000. The amount increases in peak seasons.

For the coming November/December

issue, 200,000 will be printed for about

$50,000. With 40,000 people on the mailing

list the postal cost, at 25 cents apiece, comes

out at $10,000. Catalogue distribution is

outsourced as is the majority of deliveries.

GetForLess might be shouldering high

costs, but it is staying afloat. The first three

months sales were roughly $50,000, $80,000

and $150,000. In November and December

they hit about $350,000. “Since then, we’ve

been running at around $200,000 a month,”

says Murr. On average profit margins are

15%. That’s a healthy performance considering

that catalogue sales are still a novelty in

Lebanon. And bear in mind – GetForLess is

up against a crowded retail sector battling for

sales in an economic slump. The key to its

success is convenient services – free delivery

within 48 hours – and good prices. “Our

concept is to have the lowest prices in town,”

says Murr. GetForLess vows to match

the lowest prices in town.To prove it, customers

who find lower prices are refunded the difference

plus 10%.

Ordinarily the company doesn’t keep

stock: Goods are procured from its 77 suppliers

once customers place orders.

However, about $200,000 worth of high turnover

goods is stocked at the company

warehouse for each 45-day interval. These

represent 20% of the product range, which is

made up mostly of electronic items, computer

hardware, household appliances, sporting

equipment, CDs and DVDs. GetForLess

shuns clothing, which has a high percentage

of returns in catalogue sales. The strategy

keeps returns down to about 3%.

Payment is either by cash on delivery or

credit card. E-commerce customers have the

option of paying over the Internet. Credit is

available on items priced from $299.

About 60% of applicants are accepted,

keeping non-collection down to I%.

The only concern so far stems from the e-commerce

division, which presently

accounts for a mere I 0% of sales. “We

expected the website would have generated

much more business,” says Murr.

lO00mabrouk, a similar enterprise selling

wedding gifts via catalogue and a website, is

in the same predicament. “Our catalogue

generates 90% of sales,” says owner Walid

Hanna. “The Lebanese aren’t used to buying

things on the Internet.” Hanna and Murr

anticipate that this will change once people recognize

the ease of shopping over the Internet.

GetForLess plans to widen distribution by

selling its catalogue for LLl,000 at bookstores.

The first catalogue to hit stores will

be a special 80-page November/December

issue expected to generate almost

$500,000 in sales each month. The issue will

have 14 extra pages of gift items, and will

introduce a new brand – Blautech. The line

of electronic items is 25% cheaper than

competitive products and comes with a

three-year warranty.

Further expansion is expected by going

regional. The first step involves making

the company’s website available in Arabic.

Thereafter, GetForLess plans to be present

in the Arab countries through franchises.

The distribution base, earmarked for Dubai

Internet City, “should have at least $2 or $3

million in stock,” says Murr.

October 15, 2001 0 comments
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Money Matters

Strategy focus United States

by Christine Callies November 30, 2000
written by Christine Callies

• Our message for the period immediately ahead continues

to be that we expect some stabilization in the stock market

before the end of November. We recommend adding to equity

exposure below 1,400 on the S&P 500 and below 3,600 on

the NASDAQ composite.

• Recent selling pressure appears to represent typical end-of quarter

and fiscal year-end jitters. Mutual funds may continue

their house cleaning into the end of October. Pressure from that

kind of profit-taking would probably be most evident in the

groups that have been among the poorer performers so far this

year (i.e., technology in the short term). As we see it, deteriorating

sentiment should contribute to a fourth-quarter buying opportunity.

• The recent spate of decreases in earnings estimates should

not be seen as a new negative in the market’s picture, in our

judgement. Analysts’ earnings-estimate-revision activity almost

has a negative bias between September and the early

part of the following year.

• Multiple convergence continues to support emerging

leadership in the S&P 500 and the technology sector. Investors

interested in stock with growth at reasonable price

multiples have been seeing those PIE ratios creep higher

even as the more expensive multiples have retreated. The

S&P sectors that are unlikely to be potential beneficiaries of

that trend, in our view, are tech, healthcare and financials.

• The growth in the M3 measure of the money supply has recently

accelerated. That bodes well for an eventual stabilization

in equity prices in the fourth quarter.

• Non-auto consumer cyclicals and capital goods/technology

hybrids remain attractive. Looking at all of the S&P sectors, we

continue to suggest that investors have overweight positions in

energy, technology, and utilities; neutral positions in capital

goods and consumer cyclicals; and underweight positions in

basic materials, communications services, consumer staples, financial

services, healthcare, and transportation.

November 30, 2000 0 comments
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Money Matters

Global research Highlights

by Bruce Steinberg November 30, 2000
written by Bruce Steinberg

Investors seem to fear a hard landing, but the evidence for

one is close to nonexistent. Although the tech-dominated NASDAQ

has had some rough going, orders for computers were up

by 34% from August 1999 to August 2000, and telecom-equipment

orders advanced by 19%. That isn’t the image of a tech

sector that’s falling apart. Meanwhile, consumer spending appears

to have grown at a 5% rate in the third quarter. The economy

has lost some momentum, but remains healthy, in our

view. We still expect GDP to increase by nearly 4% for 2001.

• Our benign view of the world is based on the belief that the

New Economy is putting down ever-deeper and broader roots.

Specially, we believe that productivity gains will remain

strong, leading to rapid non-inflationary growth and decent

profit margins. We will be wrong if productivity gains suddenly

start to flag. Third-quarter productivity probably grew at

about a 3.5% rate, faster than GDP.

• Technology spending is at the center of the productivity revolution.

Our work shows that an acceleration in tech spending

now tends to lead to an acceleration in productivity within years.

Because tech spending is up by 27% on a year-to-year basis –

fastest pace of the expansion – we believe that structural

productivity gains are pretty much a certainty for 2001 and even

2002. What’s our 200 I forecast for tech spending? A somewhat-

slower but brisk increase of 22% in real terms.

• One thing that’s worrying tech-sector observers is the

euro. Tech has the highest European exposure of any S&P sec-

tor. Currency translations reduced S&P 500 EPS growth by

about three percentage points in the third quarter; logic

suggests that the figure was larger for tech companies. Based on

the assumption that the euro will stabilize, the adverse

currency effect will probably be only half as strong in the fourth

quarter; it should be neutral by the first quarter of 2001.

• The job market shows neither excessive weakness nor

strength. Stripping away special factors, September payrolls rose

by 204,000 jobs, in line with the performance so far this year. The

unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, but only because the labor force

temporarily shrank. Wage pressures are contained: hourly wages

were up by only 0.2% for September and by 3.6% on a year-to-

year basis, in line with their rate for the past five years.

November 30, 2000 0 comments
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Money Matters

Regional Markets

by Executive Contributor November 30, 2000
written by Executive Contributor

MOROCCO

The Casablanca Stock Exchange ended lower driven

by losses in leading shares as investors failed to

react to the announcements of first-half corporate results

that were somewhat in line with expectations. A

wait-and-see mood dominated the market as investors

kept to the sidelines awaiting the announcement

of promised reforms, including new incentives

for companies to list their shares on the stock market

and a series of tax breaks. Year-to-date losses now

stand at almost 17%.

EGYPT

The rising political tension in the region and the continued

liquidity crisis combined to deal a heavy blow to

Egyptian equities, which shed almost 20% since early

October and are down more than 50% since the beginning

of the year. This was heightened by news that foreign reserves

retreated to $14.64 billion in July 2000, down from

$15.13 billion a month earlier, while the Egyptian pound

has been traded at almost EGP4 to the dollar. In an effort

to contain the foreign currency crisis, the Central Bank issued

directives limiting daily cash withdrawals of foreign

currency to $20,000.

JORDAN

A cautious mood continued to dominate the Amman

Stock Exchange following weeks of Israeli atrocities

in the Palestinian Territories, bringing year-to-date

losses to 21 %. The banking sector led the decline as a

result of a drop in Arab Bank, which is one of the market’s

largest blue chips in terms of capitalization. Nevertheless,

statistics show that around 150 foreign mutual

funds have been operating in the Amman Bourse

over the past three years. Net non-Jordanian investment

at the bourse between August 1996 and the end

of August this year amounted to $281 million, or

around 6% of total market capitalization.

The performance of the largest 100 Arab banks in 1999

The positive effects on Arab

economies of higher oil prices

from mid-1999 onward and the

ongoing structural adjustment programs

in the non-oil countries saw

Arab banks recording healthy returns in

1999, with few exceptions. The combined

net income of the 100 largest

Arab banks rose by 10.2% to $8.3 billion,

while their combined assets

increased by 4.2% on their 1998 level to

$526.3 billion. However, these assets

remain smaller than the assets of any of

the largest ten banks in the world. For

example, the assets of HSBC Group

alone were $569 billion last year.

Average return on equity for Arab

banks stood at 13.9%, with return on

assets and capital-to-asset ratios at

1.58% and J 1.3% respectively. The top

Arab bank in the region in terms of

equity, the Arab Banking Corporation in

Bahrain, ranked as number 161 among

the world’s largest l000 banks in 1999,

followed by Saudi American Bank,

which ranked as number 166.

According to Euromoney’s Top 100

Arab Banks survey, the seven largest

Tunisian banks recorded the highest

increase in combined net income in

1999, up 84%, followed by the top

Bahraini and Egyptian banks with earning

growth of30.5% and 25.2% respectively.

ln the Gulf, the banking sectors of Kuwait and Qatar fared

well, with the top banks in

each country posting profit

increases of I 0.8% and

5.7% respectively. In

Saudi Arabia, the combined

pretax profits of the

nine banks (excluding

National Commercial

Bank, which had not yet

released 1999 results) rose

by a modest 1.5%.

A comparison of return on equity ratios, a key measure of profitability,

places the five top Qatari banks

in the lead with 17.7% average return

on capital in I 999, followed closely by the

largest 14 Egyptian banks, which saw

their average return on capital rise from

16.2% in 1998 to 17.5% in 1999. Return

on equity for the seven Lebanese banks

fell to I 6.9% in I 999, from 18.1 % the

year before.

The banking sector ‘s concentration

ratio measured by the market share of the

top five banks in the region is relatively

high. In Saudi Arabia, two banks, the

Saudi American Bank and the National

Commercial Bank, hold almost 50% of

the sector’s assets. The National Bank of

Kuwait and the National Bank of

Bahrain each holds 30% of their country’s

respective banking assets. Egypt’s

four state banks have 50% of total

assets and control most of the retail network,

while in Jordan, the top five

banks control 80% of the assets.

Management of Arab banks has so far

been emphasizing mainly asset size and

market share, believing that the large balance

sheet on the long haul would guarantee

competitive advantage. Instead,

management objective in the new millennium

should be to maximize shareholders’

value. This necessitates shedding

off businesses where the returns do

not cover cost of capital and allocating

more resources to those activities that

add value over time. Enhanced profitability

could also be achieved by

reducing operating expenses through

the effective use of modem technology

such as the Internet, and seeking consolidation

with banks in the domestic

market or abroad.

Arab banks will have to understand

their products and their customers’

needs much better and invest more in

technology if they are to survive the

onslaught of new competition. And if

they were too slow to adapt, the consequences

could be detrimental. Look at

what had happened in just four years to

stock trading on the World Wide Web,

and note that the stock market with the

highest proportion of Internet trading is

not in New York but in Seoul.

Consolidation would reduce operation

cost, minimize duplication, boost efficiency,

spread the huge technology costs

over a bigger base and cross market products

on a larger scale. However, consolidation

has to be planned carefully and

motivated strategically to be effective.

Despite the few consolidation deals carried

out in the region in the last two years,

mergers and acquisition activity remains

sporadic. It seems Arab banks are unlikely

to pursue serious consolidation activity

unless they are forced to do so by their

respective monetary authorities.

November 30, 2000 0 comments
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Money Matters

SOLIDERE

by Executive Contributor November 30, 2000
written by Executive Contributor

The political stagnation resulting

from the long break between the

end of the parliamentary elections

on September 3, and the appointment

of a new government by the

end of October, is taking its toll on

the market. Solidere’s GDR fell

2.41 % to $7 .075 (22/9), then fell

another 1.06% to $7 with the

materialization of S&P’s downgrades. International investors continued

trading cautiously as uncertainty surrounding the identity of the new

prime minister was still in question, though sentiment is leaning toward

Rafic Hariri. Solidere’s GDR lost 1.07% to finish the first week of

October at $6.925 (6/10). The escalating tensions in the Middle East

alarmed international investors who registered their concern by exiting

Lebanese GDRs. Solidere lost 2.17% to $6.775 (13/10).

AUDI

Two downgrades from international 25

agencies negatively affected Audi ‘s

GDR, first S&P credit downgrade of ~

Lebanon’s sovereign rating, as well as 20

Bank Audi and two other banks, citing

concerns on the deteriorating public

finances. Audi’s GDR fell 1.06% to

18.65 (22/9). Rating agency Fitch

IBCA then downgraded Bank Audi’s individual

rating, voicing concerns that asset quality will be affected by the

ongoing economic recession. Audi tumbled 4.83% to $17.75 (29/9). It then

fell another 2.37% to $17.33 (6/10) as international investors saw the political

stagnation, resulting from the transition of power, as negative and persistent

to Audi’s outlook. The increasing political instability in the occupied territories

crossed the border into Lebanon, driving Lebanese GDRs south, with

Audi’s GDR losing the most and dropping from 6.64% to $16.18 (13/10).

BLOM

S&P lowered its rating for BLOM

in line with the sovereign downgrade

as concerns mounted about

asset quality during the economic

recession. BLOM lost 0.72% to

$24. 125 (22/9), then plummeted

4.04% lo $23.15 after a volatile

week that saw its, price fall to

$22.85, but rebounded by the end

of the week on rumored foreign

buying. The economic and political freeze did not impress investors, but

BLOM attracted some buying leaving its price at $23 (6/10), a 0.65%

weekly decrease. The rising troubles across the border were immediately

seen by wary investors as the first signs of political instability in the

region. They sent BLOM’s GDR down 4.78% to $21.9 (13/10).

BLC

Going along with the market

sentiment, BLC’s GDR edged back

slightly, 0.36%, to $6.95 (22/9), as

the vacuum in the political arena

started 10 weigh on the economy.

BLC was not specifically affected

By the downgrade by S&P. The rating agency cited the overall

economic recession as the main reason for

the downgrade, while investors

believed that the old news was already reflected in the price. BLC held

its ground two weeks in a row (29/9) lo remain at $6.95 (6/10).

However, investors did not ignore the escalating tensions in the Middle

East that resulted in the halt of the peace process. BLC lost 1.08% to

$6.875 ( 13/10).

MOROCCO

The Casablanca Stock Exchange ended lower driven

by losses in leading shares as investors failed to

react to the announcements of first-half corporate results

that were somewhat in line with expectations. A

wait-and-see mood dominated the market as investors

kept to the sidelines awaiting the announcement

of promised reforms, including new incentives

for companies to list their shares on the stock market

and a series of tax breaks. Year-to-date losses now

stand at almost 17%.

EGYPT

The rising political tension in the region and the continued

liquidity crisis combined to deal a heavy blow to

Egyptian equities, which shed almost 20% since early

October and are down more than 50% since the beginning

of the year. This was heightened by news that foreign reserves

retreated to $14.64 billion in July 2000, down from

$15.13 billion a month earlier, while the Egyptian pound

has been traded at almost EGP4 to the dollar. In an effort

to contain the foreign currency crisis, the Central Bank issued

directives limiting daily cash withdrawals of foreign

currency to $20,000.

JORDAN

A cautious mood continued to dominate the Amman

Stock Exchange following weeks of Israeli atrocities

in the Palestinian Territories, bringing year-to-date

losses to 21 %. The banking sector led the decline as a

result of a drop in Arab Bank, which is one of the market’s

largest blue chips in terms of capitalization. Nevertheless,

statistics show that around 150 foreign mutual

funds have been operating in the Amman Bourse

over the past three years. Net non-Jordanian investment

at the bourse between August 1996 and the end

of August this year amounted to $281 million, or

around 6% of total market capitalization.

November 30, 2000 0 comments
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Money Matters

Syria bound

by Executive Contributor November 30, 2000
written by Executive Contributor

Banque du Liban et d’Outre-Mer

(BLOM), Lebanon’s largest bank in

terms of assets and deposits, has become the

fourth local bank to be granted a license to

open a branch in the Damascus free zone.

Fransabank, Societe Generale· Libano Europeenne

de Banque and Banque

Europeenne pour le Moyen Orient (BEMO)

have already been given permission to operate

in the free zone. The banks are required

to have no Jess than $10 million in capital at

their main branch in the Damascus free

zone. Each additional branch in other free

zones must have $1 million in capital.

“Most Syrian clients already deal with

BLOM in Lebanon and lots of other banks on

the border. This is just a foot in the door,” says

Bassam Yammine, corporate finance manager

at Lebanon Invest.

Another low blow

In its semi-annual survey on creditworthiness,

the American magazine

Institutional Investor ranked Lebanon 77th

out of 145 countries, down from the 74th position

it was ranked in the last survey. Out of 17

countries in the Middle East and North

Africa (MENA), Lebanon placed 12th. On a

scale of 0-100, with 100 representing the

least chance of debt default, Lebanon scored

36.8 points, below the regional and global

averages of 45.7 and 43.4 respectively.

Lebanon was ranked ahead of Libya, Iran,

Algeria, Syria and Iraq, but fell immediately

behind Namibia, Bulgaria, Guatemala

and the Dominican Republic. “Although

Lebanon has never defaulted on a loan, this

ranking is not surprising given the ongoing

increase in public debt,” says Nassib

Ghobril, analyst at Lebanon invest. In the

MENA region, UAE had the best credit worthiness.

Switzerland held its ground as the

country with the lowest chance of default

worldwide. The survey indicated that the

MENA region showed significant improvement

and noted that emerging markets have

made substantial progress in their willingness

to undertake financial reforms, boosting

investor confidence.

Good news … for a change

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Lebanon

totaled $250 million in 1999, a 25%

increase from 1998, according to the World

Investment Report 2000, published by the

United Nations Conference on Trade and

Development (UNCTAD). The increase parallels

a 27% increase in investments worldwide

during the same period. The report added that

Lebanon will likely continue to enjoy an

increase in FDI due to it5 free economic policies

and the recent Israeli withdrawal. The privatization

plans were a prime factor contributing to

the increase. “In nominal terms, the flow of FD I

is modest compared to East Asia or other

emerging markets,” says Ziad Maalouf, vice

president at Middle East Capital Group

(MECG), adding that Lebanon needs to create

an attractive environment to lure more foreign

investment. Lebanon absorbed 2.26% of the

total FDI in the Middle East and North Africa

in 1999 and 2.87% of FDI in Arab countries.

BOB keeps growing,

but barely

Bank of Beirut (BOB), one of five listed

banks on the Beirut Stock

Exchange, registered profits of $14 million

during the first three quarters of 2000, a

1.5% increase over the same period last

year, according to the bank’s unaudited

results. BOB pulled in net profits of $4.3

million in the first quarter, $5.2 million in

the second quarter and $4.5 million in the

third. Assets increased 15.3% to $1.9 billion,

loans were up 10.25% to $50 I million and

deposits jumped 16.84% to $1.46 billion.

BOB was ranked ninth in terms of deposits

At the end of 1999 with $1.33 billion.

BOB has also launched its Beirut income

Fund. “The fund’s objective is to provide

existing and potential customers with a new

investment vehicle for their asset relocation

and secure for them a steady and superior

return,” says Michel Chikhani, manager of

BOB’s asset management department. The

fund will invest in Lebanese fixed income

securities, such as eurobonds and certificates

of deposit. BOB will be managing this

open-ended fund and has put a minimum

subscription requirement of $10,000.

Recession sensitive

Rating agency Fitch JBCA downgraded

Banque Audi’s individual rating from

B/C to C, citing the recession as the main culprit_

for the deterioration in the bank’s asset

quality. The agency also assigned a negative

outlook to the bank’s long-term rating of BB in

correlation to the outlook of Lebanon’s

long-term sovereign rating. The agency said

that higher levels of doubtful debt negatively

affected Audi’s profitability in 1999, with

reserve coverage lower than that of its peers.

In recent years, the bank’s high cost base has

depressed earnings, while the increase in revenue

expected from network expansion has

been delayed due to the difficult economic

environment. At the end of 1999, 9% of the

bank’s total loan book was classified as nonperforming.

“The bank has been negatively

affected by the recession. It has expanded in

a way that will benefit in the long run but the

economy is not helping,” says one analyst.

Eurobonds in,

government out

The outgoing Lebanese government issued

its last sovereign eurobonds worth 250

million euros ($230 million).

The four-year issue, which is lead-managed by

Germany’s Commerzbank, included a further sale of

bonds that were originally issued in 1999. Over

70% of the issue went to local banks. The rest

went to Arab and European investors. The

euro-denominated bonds carry a coupon rate of

8.25% and a spread of 320 basis points over

German government bonds. The government

has sold about $1 billion in net foreign debt so

far th.is year and has been mandated to issue up

to$ l.5 billion by year-end. In 1998 and 1999,

the government issued $2.7 billion worth of

eurobonds in a bid to replace short-term local

debt – two-year Lebanese treasury bills with a

14.14% interest rate-with foreign debt. “The

new issue is in line with parliament’s mandate.

It’s also a precautionary step for maintaining a

good reserve of foreign currency in the central

bank,” says Nabil Chaya, head of capital markets

at Banque Audi.

Still in the wash

Lebanon is one of seven countries that has

taken concrete steps to combat the flow

of dirty money through its banking system,

according to the 29-nation Financial Action

Task Force (FATF). But the country remains

on the organization’s list of 15 nations considered

to be non-cooperative in the fight

against money laundering. ”There is no

exchange regulation in Lebanon,” says one

banker. “But banks are watchful for questionable

transactions.” In the corning months,

the FATF will evaluate the progress of countries

to determine whether they should be

removed from the list. “We have less than a

year to show we’ve taken positive action

against such activities,” says another banker.

Dead on arrival

The outgoing cabinet has passed a draft

budget for 2001, but analysts say it is

unlikely to be adopted by the new government.

“Members of Hariri’s block criticized

the budget. They are unlikely to adopt

it without changes,” says one analyst.

The budget is considered to be unrealistic,

with revenues forecast at $3.73 billion,

expenses at $6 billion and a 38.15% deficit

The revenue figures are rather optimistic,”

says the analyst. “I don’t know where they are

going to get that money from. And debt servicing

is on the low side. Obviously, they fiddled

with the books.” By the end of August

the cumulative deficit had reached 51 %.

Despite a deficit of just 38% for the month of

September, finance minister Georges

Corm’s initial forecast of 37% for the year is

expected to be overshot by a wide margin.

Landslide

Solidere has reported its worst performance

ever. Due to the economic slowdown

and a freeze on permits under the

Hoss regime, the real estate giant came out

with $2.7 million in losses in the first half of

2000. Net revenues from land and real

estate sales were only $1.8 million, while

rental income produced $2.5 million.

Interest income, $9.1 million, was the company’s

biggest earner. There is some sort of

good news, however. Just before the previous

government left, it passed a decree

allowing Solidere to develop the souks.

Unfortunately, a Solidere official predicts that

it will take three to six months for the plans

to be approved by the Beirut municipality.

Merrill Lynch recently released a report

with a neutral recommendation for Solidere’s

GDRs. The investment firm claims that

despite the positive implications of Rafic

Hariri ‘s ascension to the premiership – which

will likely smooth the real estate company’s

relations with the government –

Lebanon’s recession will continue to hinder Solidere’s

growth. Merrill Lynch calculates net asset

value at $9.2, while the GDRs are hovering

just under $7. A number of local analysts are

also neutral about Solidere’s shares. “lf Rafic

Hariri becomes prime minister, I think we’ll

see limited appreciation of Solidere shares,”

says Ali Ayache, head of trading at Lebanon

Invest. “We’ll have to wait for the economic

plan of the new government. Foreign

investors will buy shares only if they’re convinced

that the economy is doing well.”

Getting a hold on things

The net asset value (NAY) of Lebanon

Holdings, the only closed- ended fund on

the Beirut Stock Exchange, has risen 0.5%

since June to $7.76. That’s below what was

registered at the end of 1999, when it reached

$7.94. But it is above the fund’s share price on

the Beirut Stock Exchange of$5.75.

The fund’s holdings of Banque du Li ban et

d’Outre-Mer (BLOM) increased from

265,000 to 273,000 shares, putting BLOM’s

weight in the fund at the maximum allowable

20%, up from 16.62%. “We still believe that

BLOM is a solid bank. It has proven its stability,

especially during the recession,” says

Khalil el-Khoury, asset management associate

at Lebanon Invest. A I 0% share buyback

was completed in September, bringing the total

outstanding shares down to 4.5 million.

Another buyback of 500,000 shares is

planned, says el-Khoury. That would represent

an unrealized profit of $2 per share.

November 30, 2000 0 comments
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Tech Knowledge

High net worth ?

by Carl Gebeily November 28, 2000
written by Carl Gebeily

Prepare for the next Internet feeding

frenzy. Sharks from several industries

are already circling the

nascent market for banking products and

services that will enable consumers to

receive account information and pay their

monthly bills online.

Amid a flurry of high-profile advertising

to boost online banking, Credit Libanais

rolled out its Internet service at the end of

July. More than 2,500 of a customer base of

around 90,000, or 3%, are already using that

service today, says Tony Zarifeh, the

bank’s manager of alternative distribution

channels. “Above all, consumers want

speed and the key benefit of always knowing

in real time where their finances

stand,” says Zarifeh. “That’s the initial

attraction of online banking.”

Michel Kilsey, general manager of

Internet Facilities, whose key area of interest

lies in e-banking security and online

payment, believes that the shift away from

the traditional brick-and-mortar neighborhood

bank may be inevitable. “Banks are

not all that different from other retail businesses,”

he says. “Unless they change, they

are likely to see continued erosion in all of

their markets.” Kilsey believes that technology

presents opportunities for growth in

new areas. ‘The future of banking lies in the

proliferation of systems that provide consumers

with online bill presentment by

merchants and utility companies, enabling

them to use the Internet to make payments

with a click of a mouse.”

Banks have long been looking to the web

to help them reach customers. Similar to

automatic cash machines, computers allow

 customers to bank without taking up

expensive bank teller time. But so far –

and unlike online stock trading that is practiced

by a growing core of private

Lebanese entrepreneurs – online banking

has not been a killer application.

Consumers have been just as slow as the

banks to accept the Internet as a medium for

managing everyday money matters. This

isn’t just a local syndrome. Even in the

US, the Internet backbone and trailblazer for

e-models, of the 37% of US homes that have

Internet access, less than 20% of that figure

actually bank online.

Lebanese banks are starting to approach

the Internet and online banking as, globally,

clients become more secure with online

financial transactions and e-business models.

“This shift in focus on access methods

reflects the fact that banks are aware of the

rapidly increasing interest in the Internet by

consumers,” says Michel Sarofim, head of

retail division at Byblos Bank, who plan to

go online before the end of the year.

“Banks are hoping to capitalize on this

trend by making their offerings accessible

over the Web. We hope that while surfing

the Web, customers will check out the

bank’s website and what it has to offer and

begin making transactions via the Net.”

Banks could even play a leading role in

transforming e-commerce in the region from

a curiosity to a mass phenomenon. However,

according to Kilsey, the banking industry

doesn’t understand well enough how to sell

technology. “Within the next few years, we’ll

see applications that are so compelling for digital

consumers and merchants that eventually

the light bulb will go on for the banks,” he

says. At the moment, most banks have a

wait-and-see strategy for the age of digital

commerce and they remain reluctant to follow

initiatives taken by Western banks and international

credit card associations.

This may change soon because of pressure

from new commercial interests establishing

themselves on the Internet. “Until about a

year ago, people from the Internet community

said: ‘Why do we need banks?'” says

Kilsey. “But now, many of the merchants,

especially those selling digital content like

software, have come back to the banks saying:

‘OK, we need your help to prevent

fraud and expensive losses.”‘

According to Kilsey, banks have been slow to see the

huge potential. “The marketplace is showing

that the banks can provide tangible

value also in cyberspace,” he says. “The

banks should be very happy with that.”

While most prophets of e-commerce predict

enormous growth rates within the next

few years, Kilsey is more cautious. “In the

West, online banking is really taking off

because banks are the trusted brands that can

guarantee consumers and merchants a safe

environment on the Internet without the

risk of fraud,” he says. “The smaller

Lebanese banks need to get a system so

secure that they are willing to cover losses

on the merchants’ side.” Because of consumer

skepticism payment over the

Internet will remain a curiosity -or at best,

a business-to-business province.

“Security remains the chief hurdle to the growth of

online structures.”

Internationally, high-tech security

already exists under the guise of the Secure

Electronic Transactions (SET) standard

that was developed by Visa and

MasterCard to extend the high security of

traditional banking to the Internet. SET

uses complex cryptography to transmit

credit card numbers over the internet, and

digital signatures to ensure that both customer

and merchant are authentic. The digital

signatures are issued by banks and used

by customers and merchants for identification

in the virtual world. The other leading

security protocol is the Secure Sockets

Layer (SSL), which is an open, non-proprietary

standard used in most browsers today,

such as Netscape and Internet Explorer.

Credit Libanais, with sensitive online

services that include money transfers and

treasury and capital markets, are firm

adepts of SSL. “The conservative buyers

and sellers – which is most of the mass

market- need this kind of assurance before

they accept payment over the Internet,”

says Zarifeh. “If it’s not provided by the

banks with the SSL standard, it has to be

done by something very similar to it. And

card holders can be assured that they don’t

have to worry about abuse of their card

numbers on the Internet.”

Even as a strong believer in the SSL standard,

Zarifeh readily admits that a lot of

other solutions to e-commerce safety will be

developed. And he said that banks will not

be able to force through a top security standard

like SET if they aren’t able to convince

the market of its advantages. A major problem

is that SET, as a completely new standard,

needs its own software, which currently

is not built into Internet browsers.

Also, a consumer who installs SET can do

so on one computer only and then must do

all Internet shopping from that machine.

Kilsey thinks that a new, enhanced version

of the widespread SSL standard will

improve security and could become attractive

because it will be distributed with all

new Internet browsers. For most merchants

and consumers, the enhanced SSL

standard will provide sufficient security.

Given adequate security, will all our

banking turn on line one day? Probably not.

“The advent of Net-only banks may seem

exciting,” says Kilsey. “The reality is, there

aren’t many customers who want to do

everything only over the Net.” When it

comes to their savings, most people

demand that there be some vault somewhere

in the physical world where their

physical money may be stashed.

And while electronic banks may offer

better interest rates on deposits and loans

because they have virtually no overhead

compared with traditional banks, the costly

clusters of branches are still valuable

assets, analysts say. ‘The fact that a bank has

a physical branch in the vicinity of a client

is an enormous advantage and will remain

an enormous advantage,” says Sarofim. “A

local presence implies solidity, whereas

anybody can set up a website.”

 The faith that most consumers place in traditional banks

is a powerful competitive advantage to

offline banks. “The problem Lebanese

banks have had historically is that they rely

on that loyalty and so they could take their

sweet time to get electronic,” says Kilsey.

On paper, at least, Credit Libanais’ on line

adventure has the stamp of success. Without

divulging any exact figures as to the number

of new accounts and the extra deposits that

their e-bank has brought them, Zarifeh

insists that they are pleased by the results in

these first two months. But there are a number

of financial institutions and banks that

have yet to get to first base, and many have

had to put off their Internet ambitions until

they update their computer systems.

It’s still very much the first round of the

online banking competition, but it’s apparent

that Lebanese banks are already finetuning

their strategies to capitalize on the

booming demand for accessing information

from anywhere. Having already cut into

the computer market with special PC-purchasing

plans that were launched last year,

the banking world now wants more than just

a piece of the Internet action.

In the West there has been a convergence

of the PC, Internet and banking industries,

a convergence that Lebanon is likely to emulate.

“We feel the time is ripe for

online banking, and for banks to take an

active role on the Internet,” says Suzanne

Saad of Banque Audi’s electronic banking

and card services. “The computer industry

needs connectivity to survive, and the

Internet industry wants to reach people on

the go, supplying information such as the

status of their bank accounts.”

Making account information available

electronically is certainly a step toward

offering what customers really want: a single

on line source of up-to-date information

about their finances, including savings and

checking accounts, credit cards and other

investments. “The Internet does offer

great opportunities for banks,” adds

Kilsey. ” But if they are to get the greatest

benefits from e-business, they must ensure

that their brands stand out in cyberspace –

not just that their sites are well-built and

easy to use.”

The power of Internet brands such as

Yahoo! and Amazon is evident. With most

major banks rushing to perfect online services,

use of the Internet as a key channel for

financial transactions is expected to grow

dramatically over the next several years.

Banks must therefore take steps to establish

their identity if they are to develop a strong

presence and thrive in a digital environment.

Only then may they hope to become medium-

sized fish in the global e-pond.

Questions to ask yourself when you consider banking online

Where do you pay your bills? If it’s at home on the kitchen table,

can you just as easily get to a computer? If you have computer

access only at the office, you may not feel comfortable having bills

scattered all over your desk. Are most of your bills to the same businesses

or people every month? If so, banking online would enable

you to set up repeat payments that would automatically pay out on

a particular day each month, saving a lot of time. If you tend to do business

with different people, stores and companies and don’t mind

addressing envelopes, you might want to hang on to your checkbook.

Do you foresee paying bills and transferring funds online? Or would

you use the service primarily to check your balances? If the latter is

true, your bank’s automated phone service will give you the information

much faster than you’ll be able to retrieve it by going online.

When you sign up for an Internet checking or savings account, have

your password sent to your local branch for you to pick up, rather

than having it emailed to you. Keep a hard copy of documentation

on your accounts from the bank in case any discrepancies occur.

If you regularly receive more than one bill from the same company

(for example, electricity bills for two different residences or two

different phone bills), be sure to enter the number for each account

on your recipient list in such a way that you’ll be able to tell them apart.

Otherwise, you might pay the wrong amounts to the wrong

accounts – mistakes that could take you hours to rectify.

Avoid installing or downloading online banking software or setting

up an online account outside normal business hours. Although some

Western banks have technical support around the clock, Lebanese

banks do not.

You may want to wait a few weeks before downloading or

installing upgraded software from your bank to avoid any early

glitches. When you do download or install an upgrade, keep a

backup of the program and your financial data on a storage disk

or a separate computer.

Last and perhaps most importantly, reconcile your accounts as frequently

as you would with paper-based banking

November 28, 2000 0 comments
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Feature

Port of problems

by Marwan Naaman November 28, 2000
written by Marwan Naaman

I t was just over a year ago that Paul

Kimberley, the e-commerce consultant

commissioned by the ministry of economy

and trade to streamline procedures at the

Port of Beirut, stood before an assembly of

government officials and leveled with them.

“Lebanon,” he said at a trade efficiency

workshop, “has absolutely no choice – it

must reform its trade process.”

He was given a firm pat on the back by the

government. The ministry of economy and

trade promised to completely overhaul the

Port of Beirut’s antiquated trading procedures.

Already much had been done to try and

speed-up the movement of goods in and out

of the country. In the mid-l 990s, customs procedures

were streamlined. The antiquated

Brussels Tariff was replaced with the modem

Harmonized Tariff. Twenty-three customs

declaration forms were scrapped in favor of

the internationally recognized Single

Administrative Document. And, in 1997, a

computerized custom’s clearance system

called NAJM was introduced, which when

fully operational in 2001, will electronically

link together customs, the Port of Beirut and

individual traders. But despite Kimberley’s

strong words of encouragement and all that

has been done to tum the Port of Beirut into

a transport hub, formalities at the port

remain as difficult as ever. Red tape and

bureaucracy are still a vivid nightmare and

corruption remains the one staple that merchants

and traders can always count on when

doing business.

If the government is to be believed, it

should take no more than three to four days

to clear goods at the port. But, says Fadi

Abboud, chairman of the North Metn

Industrialists Association, it takes an average

of 17 days. Businesses continue to pay a

range of fees such as the Free-In-Out (FIO)

charge of $175 and the $100 container fee.

What’s more, each ministry has its own

officials at the port checking for those

items that are forbidden from entering the

country. But there is virtually no coordination

between them. More than 20 signatures

are required to clear a container and officials

often become confused about what can and

cannot be brought into the country. A trader

is only allowed to start clearing his merchandise

once all original documents have

been presented and the merchandise

almost always arrives at the port long

before the original documents. This results

in costly delays because traders are only

allowed to keep their goods at the port for

two weeks free of charge. To speed-up the

process, says Abboud, huge bribes must

often be paid to port officials.

Exporting merchandise is just as tedious.

“The cost of shipping a 20-foot container

from Beirut to Marseilles, France, is $1 SO,

while the cost of putting the container on a

vessel originating from a factory ten miles

away is $600,” says Abboud. Government

and port taxes amount to $200, the FIO is

$150 and the clearing agent’s fee is $200.

“The clearing agent needs three days of

hard work just to get the container out of the

country,” says Abboud. “And this is in a

country where the minister of finance says

we should export or die.”

Not everyone is as critical of the system

as Abboud. Abdel Wadoud Nsouli, a member

of the Beirut Merchants Association,

says there have been some isolated

improvements at the port in the last couple

of years: “It used to take three hours to pay

import duties and get a receipt. Now it

takes a mere 15 minutes.” But he too is not

happy. The sluggishness of customs is one

of the biggest problems. “They still

observe antiquated, obsolete laws that date

back to the 1960s,” says Nsouli. Customs

authorities are given a free hand inside the

Port of Beirut to conduct inspections

whenever they deem it necessary, much

like policemen. “Customs should be at the

door, like in any other country, and not

enter the port,” says Gaby Moukarzel, the

trade efficiency project director at the

 ministry of trade and economy. “All

transgressions can be dealt with later – after the

merchandise has gone through the gate.”

Currently, there are four phases in clearing

merchandise. First, a trader must

declare his goods. Then comes the inspection

phase, in which all of the business person’s

documents are checked for accuracy

and customs officials search his merchandise.

In the third phase, customs officials

calculate the amount the trader owes the

state. And in the fourth and final phase,

the trader pays for his goods and the merchandise

is released.

Salim Balaa, NAJM project manager at

the ministry of finance, acknowledges that

the current system is cumbersome. But, he

says, once the electronic customs system is

fully operational next year, traders will be

able to bypass some of these steps. “If the

trader places an electronic declaration and

the government is satisfied, he automatically

jumps to phase three, skipping the inspection

phase,” he says. “The trader will gain

speed, efficiency and time, and it will be

much harder for individuals to cheat or

rely on personal connections.”

Balaa’s scenario sounds wonderful on

paper, but odds are that it will take more

than high tech gizmotry to overhaul the current

system. Balaa himself is not 100% sure

that the NAJM system will end ~e red tape,

bureaucracy and corruption. “Even if customs

authorities and individual traders accept the

NAJM system and all transactions run

smoothly,” he says, “they still have to coordinate

their moves with the Port of Beirut.

This is where problems may arise.” If the port

does not follow the same rules and regulations

as the two other parties, the reforms will not be effective. Dubai serves as a

model of a well-functioning port, says

Balaa. There, a single body called the

cargo community, oversees the whole

trading process from A to Z. As a

result, shipments to Dubai are cleared

within 24 hours.

Many local traders are placing their

hopes on the Port Development

Group (PDG). This Lebanese-owned

company, operating as a joint venture

with the Dubai Port Authority, was

awarded a 20-year build-operate-and-transfer

(BOT) contract to manage

the facility back in 1998.

According to Henri Nammour, the company’s Assistant

General Manager, PDG is scheduled to take

over management of the port next year. But

some traders are doubtful that the situation

will improve. Moukarzel believes that the

PDG’s impact will be limited at best. He

fears that the company, sooner or later, will

run into the same government roadblocks

that LibanPost- the company charged with

revamping Lebanon’s postal service – and

the two cellular operators Cellis and

LibanCell are currently facing. PDG, he

says, wants to tum the Port of Beirut into a

trans-shipment hub. And since the firm will

be paid for each shipment that passes

through the port, its interest will be to move

goods as quickly as possible. The problem

is that the sluggish, free wielding customs

authorities could easily throw a spanker

into PDG’s system of operation – slowing

the flow of merchandise and cutting into the

company’s revenues.

Already, business at the port is facing a

slowdown. A weak economy and the gradual

increase in customs duties over the last few

years have slowed the movement of goods

into and out of the facility. Since 1996, the

number of imports coming through the Port

of Beirut has fallen from $7 .5 billion to a projected

$6 billion by the end of this year. The

port’s future is, in many ways, tied to that of

the country. According to Abboud, that

leaves little reason for hope. “Investors are

running away from Lebanon because it has

gained a reputation as an anti-investor country,”

he says. “Things need to change quickly.

There is no time left, the entire country is

going bankrupt.

November 28, 2000 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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