Home Tech KnowledgeDeath of the paper back?

Death of the paper back?

Will the a-revolution spell the demise of traditional books? Read on

by Carl Gebeily

T he movies couldn’t do it. Radio

couldn’t do it. Even television

couldn’t do it. With each great leap

forward in communications, pundits have

prophesied the death of the lowly, old-fashioned

paper book. Now it’s the Internet’s

tum, as growing numbers of technophiles

claim that Internet e-publishing will deliver

the deathblow to paperbacks.

There is not yet a clear and broadly

accepted definition of the term ‘ebook.’

Sometimes it refers to a book that’s available

in any online or downloadable electronic

form and therefore accessible on almost

any PC. It is also used to describe a handheld

device specifically designed for reading

electronically distributed books, or the

content int~nded for use in such a device.

Microsoft, touting its ebook reading software,

predicts that ebook sales will overtake

paper by 2009. Bill Gates and other hightech

aficionados say digital books will be

significantly cheaper than printed titles,

because there won’t be costs related to

printing, binding and shipping. Although

they are not yet being sold outside the

United States, ebooks are real and their

impact is beginning to be felt. In the United

States, Publishers Weekly has for the first

time received an advance copy from

McGraw-Hill in an ebook form instead of

the paper galley (a printed but unbound

copy) that is traditionally sent to reviewers.

The latest novel from “best-selling

action-adventure writer” Bill Branon,

Spider Snatch, was released by

Huntingdon Press in electronic form two

months before the hardcover edition. The

electronic version costs $10, as opposed to

$24.95 for the hardcover. E-enthusiasts also point to the success of Stephen King’s

Riding the Bullet, a 67-page novella published

in mid-March only as an electronic

book. When the story became available,

Amazon averaged one consumer download

per second for it. Within three days of

its release, more than 500,000 King fans

either paid $2.50 for the story or took

advantage of downloads offered free by

some Internet sites. “Ebook devices are

not ready for prime time in Lebanon,” says

Jacques Hakimian, managing partner and

chief IT consultant of Dialog. “But that

may change. We could see ebooks on the

local market before the end of the year.”

In the US, two companies are trying to

create and spearhead the ebook market.

The first, SoftBook Press, is targeting professional

users – people who read a lot of

material on the job. The second,

NuvoMedia, is trying to crack the consumer

market through partnership with

publishing giant Bertelsmann. Both companies

make their own “reader units” that

look like double-sized PalmPilots, about the

size of a small book or paperback, with large screens. Buttons allow you to flip

back and forth between pages, annotate

text, search your entire book for keywords

and download new material. And, like their

paper cousins, ebooks allow the reader to

make notes in the margin, highlight passages

and place bookmarks.

460 The Multimedia Store, whose main

sales drive is in computer accessories, is

understandably upbeat about the new technology.

“It’s not a matter of whether ebooks

will penetrate the Lebanese market, it’s a

question of when,” says general manager,

AntoineAbi Nassif. He foresees a time when

ebooks will supercede bound volumes in the

way email has all but replaced the posted letter.

Ebook software has changed very little

since companies started moving books onto

CD-ROM in the early to mid-90s. ”The real

difference is that there are now lightweight

readers in the market,” says IT consultant,

Hakimian. ”These provide online content

distribution and encryption techniques to

protect copyright owners’ interests.”

Why you would want an ebook is another

question. Gadget lovers will pounce on

them, but if you just want a novel to read

while you’ re traveling, you’ ll probably stick

with a paperback. It weighs less, you won’t be

too upset if you lose it, you don’t have to

worry about battery life and the flight attendant

won’ t tell you to put it away when the

plane starts to descend. An ebook is another

item to carry. Just as a modem notebook

computer eliminates the need to carry a CD

player, a handheld computer is already close

to matching an ebook. Hakimian believes the

niche occupied by ebooks may even disappear

when the display quality of generalpurpose

handheld devices – such as

PalmPilots and laptops – reach a standard

acceptable for displaying ebook content.

There are two situations where ebooks

could come into their own. First, there is a

corporate and professional market for

bulky reference material where networkbased

access is not appropriate for reasons

such as security, reliability or bandwidth

availability. Today’s ebook readers can typically

hold up to 41 ,000 pages of text and

graphics, or about 200 books. Potential

users include lawyers, medical personnel and

students. The second is ephemera: material

that has a limited life span in the hands of

most readers. For magazines, an ebook

could be a more satisfactory way of reading

text-intensive material that is currently

delivered to Web browsers. This could also

apply to most newspapers and novels that

you wouldn’t read a second time.

Several problems will affect the take-up of

ebooks. First there is the question of the

reading experience. As none of the dedicated

ebooks are available in Lebanon yet, all we

can say is that broad acceptance of ebooks will

require better displays than those on current

notebooks and handheld devices. Language

is another consideration as English – the lingua

franca of today’s ebooks – is the medium

for only a minority of Lebanese. And,

though the French publishers Hachette are

reportedly looking to digitize their own

books, it may be some five years before

Arabic ebooks are available. Another problem

is the position one must sit in to read from a

notebook or desktop PC screen. The fact that

an ebook can easily be held at a normal reading

angle makes a difference.

There are also psychological considerations.

Avid readers tend to be people who take

pleasure in owning books. Even though a personal

library of about 200 books could fit into

one ebook, many people would find that a far

less satisfying alternative.

Bandwidth and storage capacity do not

appear to be big issues. Ebook content is relatively

compact and can therefore be

downloaded quickly. Obviously, the file

size will increase with the amount of text

and illustrations so that,. for instance,

Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland will take

considerably longer to download than

Einstein’s Theory of Relativity.

One of the problems with the current generation

of handheld electronic devices is

that they are not terribly robust mechanically.

Dropping one onto a hard surface may

crack the case, cause internal damage, and

even if the LCD isn’t broken, the impact can

result in part of the screen permanently

turning black. Dropping an ebook in the

bath could see hundreds of dollars going

down the drain. Reports from the United

States suggest that current ebooks have a

problem with battery life, just like earlier

notebook computers and mobile phones.

Also, while the screen resolution is acceptable,

it falls short of what’s really needed.

Another issue is that people often lend or

give away a book or magazine when they

have finished with it, and there is a sizable

trade in second-hand books. Ebook content

can be encrypted for use only on a specific

ebook. It is obvious why publishers and

some authors like this idea, but unless the

price of electronic editions is pushed low

enough, there may be consumer resistance.

Common standards are important.

Publishers don’t want to struggle with producing

multiple versions of their content for

similar media. From their perspective, it doesn’t matter whether th.,a t standard comes

about by industry agreement (as with DVD)

or by market forces (as with VHS).

Consumers have more to Jose if things are left

to the market. ”The decision may quickly

change from ‘which of these competing

products would be the best for me?’ to ‘which

is least Likely to fall by the wayside?”‘ warns

Hakimian. In these circumstances, marketing

savvy and market clout can result in success

for a second-rate product.

It’s too early to say how ebooks will

stack up against ‘dead tree editions.’ As

with much of the electronic economy, the

switch from books to ebooks transfers capital

and running costs from the producer to

the consumer. In the old model, the supply

side invested in printing presses and so on,

and the product was self-contained. Now,

consumers are expected to invest hundreds

or possibly thousands of dollars in hardware

so they can access the product or service.

The ebook industry may follow the example

of the mobile phone industry and, in the

longer term, ebook prices will probably

reach generally affordable levels.

When all is said and done, electronic distribution

should be substantially quicker and cheaper than paper, especially as it

avoids the cost of unsold copies. “This will

drive the transition to ebooks,” believes Abi

Nassif. He is not alone. Microsoft is pushing

an aggressive timeline for ebooks, predicting

that over I million ebook titles will be

sold this year following the introduction of

its Reader software for desktop and notebook

PCs. It predicts that by 2003, ebook

prices will range from

$99 for a small mono-chrome device to about $899 for a magazine-

size color model.

By 2005, the

ebook and ‘e-periodical’

market is predicted

to reach $1 billion,

and another$ I billion

in advertising revenue

will support free publications,

all reaching

an audience of 250 million ‘e-readers.’

The price of ebook

content has yet to settl down. In the West,

vendors talk about distributing cost savings

between authors, publishers, booksellers and

readers, but this rhetoric has yet to be

proven. Free titles are mainly out-of-copyright

works or books by undiscovered authors,

much as new bands release music in MP3 format.

Budget titles cost a few dollars and tend

to be similar to those in the free category.

Finally, there are ‘full price’ editions of current

– sometimes even the latest- books.

There are two basic models for loading

content into an ebook. The Rocket uses a PC

as an intermediary: You download content

from vendors’ websites to the PC, then

transfer it to the Rocket. The alternative, as

used by SoftBook, is to include a modem

interface so the ebook can connect to the

Internet and then to an ebook shop. A onestep

download is obviously more convenient,

but putting a PC into the loop provides

a local backup copy of the content.

Given that the devices have yet to go on

sale here, it’s not surprising that there isn’t

much activity on the content side. Librairie

Antoine’s site currently only sells items

stocked at its main shop, which does not

include ebook content, but the company is aware of the possibilities. Georges Tabet,

senior vice president of Librairie Antoine,

says: “We’ re not unenthusiastic about

ebooks, but we’re not in the front lines of

those saying they will replace bound books

in a couple of years.”

Ebooks are a bigger threat to our booksellers

than offshore suppliers such as

Amazon. Selling content is a puree-business

opportunity unhampered

by the short  comings of shipping.

Publishers could bypass bookshops.

Established authors

could bypass publishers

and book  sellers, bringing a

new meaning to selfpublishing.

“I think

this is going to spark a

renaissance in literature,”

says Abi

Nassif. “Authors will

no longer have to kowtow to the publishers

and write

something they want to sell. lfyou’ve got a

book you want to publish, you will be able

to do it yourself for a modest sum.”

Most authors, though, will lose out if the

book market turns electronic. Royalties are

based on the retail price. On a $20 book, a

15% royalty – the typical percentage – earns

the writer $3. If the ebook version has a drastically

reduced price, as its proponents claim,

authors may lose out- royalties on a $2 sale,

for example, would be 30 cents. So unless

authors and publishers work out a new pay

structure (or ebooks remain as expensive as

print), technophiles might largely be reading

test patterns or a lot of college fiction.

So far, a smalJ portion of the world’s books

– some 3,000 titles – is available electronically.

And because the market is so new,

industry analysts have yet to produce estimates

of its future potential or to profile

ebook users.

None of which, to be sure, is likely to hold

off the rise of ebooks, especially for kids

already more comfortable with laptops and

PalmPilots than printed books. It remains to

be seen whether Gutenberg’s adherents

will go without a fight.

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