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Banking 2015Business

Quilvest loves BlomInvest

by Thomas Schellen October 28, 2015
written by Thomas Schellen

It is a regular romance. Quilvest, a global wealth manager, and Lebanon’s BlomInvest Bank have tied the knot with a new product partnership, allowing the Lebanese bank’s wealth management clientele to buy into Quilvest deals via a special purpose vehicle called the Blom-Quilvest European Real Estate Fund. The two are teaming up for the second time in three years to market investment opportunities. The difference from their first collaboration, which was a l’Americaine, is that the current arrangement is focused on European property investments.

“What is most important in our relationship is that the very spirit of [both] Quilvest and the bank are very much alike,” says Marc Manasterski, partner and global head of the real estate unit at Quilvest. “BLOM has a family approach to business and we have the same,” he adds and iterates a line from the Quilvest Group’s corporate narrative to explain how the group is distinguished from the hoi polloi of fund management by always committing its own important equity stakes into projects. According to Manasterski, Quilvest does not prioritize fund management fees as its revenue source. “We are investors before we are fund managers,” he enthuses.

For Fadi Osseiran, the general manager of BlomInvest, it was enlightening to see how the investment opinions on both sides moved in sync. “We said, [this is] great, we see eye to eye,” Osseiran explains, referring to how he saw that Quilvest was targeting the United States at the same time when the BlomInvest team thought the US was the ticket three years ago. They also talked about Europe just as BlomInvest was looking to invest there, given the weakening Euro and central bank efforts to stimulate an economic turnaround.

Another enticing element of convergence was the all-important perspective on risk, Osseiran says. “People are greedy,” he elaborates. “Whenever they are approached with promised returns, they don’t look at risk. We have always a lot of opportunities when funds come to us but when we pick a fund, we don’t just look at the performance, which shows only the growth but not the risk. Looking at Quilvest we saw a family fund that has a track record of 70 years of investing its own money directly. Our cultures are very similar in terms of risk mitigation.” 

Looking to Europe

The Blom-Quilvest European Real Estate Fund is seeking to accumulate $20 to $30 million in investor money and deploy interesting amounts into select projects in European capitals and gateway cities. Projects will generally not be new developments but consist of property acquisitions targeted for refurbishing and repositioning, aiming for annual returns of 12 to 13 percent. According to Manasterski, the monies will be deployed over two years and the holding period of the investments will be about four years, aiming for liquidation by 2020 or 21, with interim income delivered in the meantime. He emphasizes that the investments will be in the low-risk European environment, but will offer premiums of 900 to 1000 basis points (bips) when compared with returns achievable from high-quality sovereign bonds that yield less than three percent.

“The strategy in the current partnership is not to invest in funds but only in direct deals with pre-identified investments; another characteristic is that investments are in deals that secure value creation upfront so that the exits are not so exposed to market swings. Therefore, if we do not secure the 12 to 13 percent, we serve eight percent at worst, comparing to the treasury bond at 2.5 or 3 percent, [representing] a 500 bips riskless type of investment return,” Manasterski says.

He outlines his rationale for targeting the European property market over other investable real estate markets around the world. While property values in the US still have room to increase, one has to be cautious and very selective in the coming three to five years to avoid being caught in market adjustments. Markets in Singapore and Hong Kong are very active, but these East Asian property environments are, value wise, under the influence of China. The country, in Manasterski’s view, is in a phase of no development which he specifically attributes to the Chinese government’s anti-corruption drive that has hit decision making in state-owned enterprises. Latin-American property markets in turn are sluggish because of the dependency on Chinese demand by most of the continent’s economies.   

For BLOM clients, the Blom-Quilvest European Real Estate Fund is accessible on a retail level, Osseiran says. But that is retail in a manner of speaking, to the value of a $250,000 minimum ticket size compared to the multimillion dollar participation requirements that Quilvest usually imposes as an entry barrier. “We use the word retail as opposed to the minimum ticket of $5 million or $10 million,” Osseiran clarifies.

Given the Blom-Quilvest fund’s minimum ticket size of $250,000, the audience for buying into the fund seems destined to range in the dozens and not in the hundreds of clients. Osseiran says he expects that respondents to the fund offering will comprise perhaps sixty percent of clients who already use BlomInvest. This would give the bank important opportunities to appeal to wealth clients that have ties with the parent, BLOM Bank, and to approach potential new clients in the market place where the BlomInvest Private Banking unit competes in Lebanon with the likes of Audi Private Bank, the Saradar Group, and FFA Private Bank.

October 28, 2015 0 comments
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Tourism and Hospitality

Burning the fat

by Nabila Rahhal October 26, 2015
written by Nabila Rahhal

The commercial fitness industry in Lebanon is witnessing a growth both in the number of gyms and in the variety of fitness options inspired by global trends. Executive profiled four different gyms to learn more about their unique business strategies and their take on the Lebanese market.

180 Degrees fitness and spa

Spread over 4,000 meter squares is Ashour Holding’s first venture into the health and fitness industry, following his other hospitality projects such as the Lancaster hotels and the restaurants in Verdun.

180 Degrees, which opened almost a year ago, is located on Unesco Street towards the beginning of the Jnah highway and is housed in the three floor underground warehouse of Ashour Holding’s Park Tower Building. According to Samar Hamdan, the project’s director, a fitness and spa center was one of the few concepts that would be successful in a such large underground space.

In addition to the gym itself, which has 18 cardiovascular machines, around 34 strength training ones, an indoor pool and two squash courts, the outlet also includes a health food cafeteria, a clothing store and a beauty and massage spa. “We want people to come to our center and be able to spend the day,” explains Hamdan.

[pullquote]“Clients still sign up for personal training because they see better and faster results, sometimes in only three months.”[/pullquote]

Hamdan explains that they use 180 Degrees Fitness and Spa’s large space to its full advantage and have five studios for classes with plans to open a new studio in their garage that would have a capacity of 80 clients per class. Because of the number of studios, 180 Degrees is able to offer a variety of classes at the same time, often having four classes running simultaneously. “We offer Les Mills, Radical Fitness, Freestyle and yoga classes so everyone can find a class that suits them,” explains Hamadan.

180 degrees

Hamdan does not feel that having a large number of members in one class would deter from the experience and says that it is up to the trainer to make sure all members are doing the moves correctly. Because of the high energy classes offered and the vibrant decor, Hamdan says the gym attracts a lot of students from the neighbouring universities such as LAU and AUB. Membership fees vary between corporate, students, annual cash payment and semi annual payment but the average is $125 per month paid over a full year.

Hamdan says a lot of their members sign up for personal training although the instructors on the floor monitor all clients regardless of whether they took PT sessions or not, and change their programs on a bimonthly basis as they develop strength. “Clients still sign up for personal training because they see better and faster results, sometimes in only three months,” says Hamadan.

When they first opened the gym, Hamdan says the main challenge was promoting their name amidst the competition in the area. “We were able to distinguish ourselves with our consistent high quality service,” explains Hamadan.

Today, 180 Degrees has around a 1,000 members with plans to continue growing.

Evolve

Just off the Rabieh highway is a physiotherapy and sports boutique center called Evolve which opened in 2012.

Its owner, Elias Azar, is a physiotherapist. After earning a Bachelor’s in Biology, Azar had hoped to become a chiropractor but was forced to change plans when the July 2006 war prevented him from continuing his education abroad.

Instead, Azar chose to major in physiotherapy at Lebanon’s Antonine University which had just launched the course in English. Alongside his studies, Azar, who had always practiced a wide variety of sports, was working part time as a trainer at one of the neighborhood gyms. “I was applying what I was learning at university; the late stage of physiotherapy is the strengthening and proprioceptive phase, or the early stage of sports,” explains Azar.

As Azar learnt more about the relationship between physiotherapy and working out, he began to relate his knowledge to his clients. Word of mouth from satisfied clients helped Azar expand his list of gym clients who were recovering from injury. “I started using the gym to strengthen and heal my patients and not just to get in shape and be fit,” enthuses Azar.

Following the completion of his physiotherapy degree and after a stint helping launch a 24-hour fitness center in Qatar, Azar chose to return to Beirut and launch his own business. “Like with any other business, one has to be a pioneer and develop a concept that is new to the market for it to be successful. Because there already exist a fair number of gyms in my area [Rabieh], my businesses wouldn’t have been competitive and physiotherapy alone would not have been enough. So instead, I opened a boutique gym inside the physiotherapy department, effectively combining the two concepts together. Those who were doing physio would continue in sports and regain their strength to the fullest and those who were doing sports alone would trust that they were doing so in a safe and well studied environment,” says Azar.

evolve

Evolve does not have monthly membership fees and is a sessions only gym whereby one books an in-house personal trainer (PT) session ($50) or a physiotherapy session ($40) depending on the person’s needs.

At any given time there are a maximum of four clients at the premises, and Azar is always personally present to monitor and train, along with a few trainers and physiotherapists who assist him. Azar also sets up personalized programs according to the clients’ specific needs, including taking into consideration which type of sport they practice the most, the frequency with which they train and the results it has on their particular body composition. As such, he says his biggest challenge is the long hours he puts into providing this kind of attention. This is in addition to the fact that the gym physiotherapy combination is a relatively new concept in Lebanon, leaving him with no precedent to model after or learn from.

Among the services that Azar offers, both at the physio and gym sections, are corrective training for physical imbalance when overworking a group of muscles, posture exercises, functional and corrective training (such as when one hand is stronger than the other in the case of tennis players) and preventive training such as the prevention of osteoporosis in menopausal women.

Azar says his clients’ ages range between 12 and 90 years old and explains that he has many geriatric clients who are aware of the importance that sports has on maintaining joint flexibility and good circulation.

Because of the physiotherapy element of the gym, each machine in the outlet has been handpicked to be the safest possible with specifications made for those with injuries, such as inbuilt crutches on the sides of treadmills.

Azar is happy with the feedback he has received from clients and says he is keeping a busy schedule with physiotherapy clients staying on to continue sports and vice versa. Speaking of the fitness scene in Lebanon, Azar says, “People are becoming more aware of fitness and it has become part of their lifestyle. Even physiotherapy is becoming more of a need after an injury to help relieve the pain. People are beginning to understand that in order to prevent the injury from reoccurring or even occurring in the first place, they have to keep themselves fit by doing sports. It’s a cycle.”

Exhale

Exhale, a classes and personal training fitness studio, opened in 2004 on the first floor of an apartment building towards the end of Bliss Street. Hania Bissat, Exhale’s owner, says that she and her then partner started Exhale upon their return to Beirut after having lived abroad because they felt the fitness scene in Beirut was lacking in certified trainers and general awareness of the importance of sports for a healthy life was missing.

From the start, recounts Bissat, she was interested in indoor cycling or spinning and introduced that to her studio. She started by becoming certified abroad as a spinning instructor and brought indoor cycling workshops to Beirut in order to certify Exhale’s instructors as well.

Bissat still hosts international workshops at Exhale and invites other gyms to certify their instructors as well. “Our main motto was to make everybody more aware about fitness in general and to make sure that everybody who works in Exhale as a trainer is certified in everything they do. Still, the more certified instructors there are, the better for the industry,” says Bissat.

Bissat believes certification is important because clients who come to Exhale are not paying a small amount. A single class costs $22, with discounts available if classes are bought in bulk over a predetermined time frame. Clients therefore expect professional service. “The whole environment and experience has to be professional and that is what I personally work on. Hopefully enough people will appreciate it to make it worthwhile,” explains Bissat.

Over time, Exhale’s client list grew considerably, with people coming from across the city for classes at the Bliss Street studio. When the Saudi Embassy relocated to the end of Bliss Street, it purchased the parking lot where Bissat’s clients used to park and created increased traffic issues in an already congested street. This made reaching Exhale difficult if one was not on foot or with a driver.

ex

These factors, combined with Bissat’s long term desire to have a studio at street level instead of in a building, encouraged her to open a second Exhale in Saifi Village in May 2015. “I wanted to be in a central location where people coming from both Hamra and Downtown could reach easily, so I was limited with my choice. Since I know Saifi Village well and have a soft spot for it, I chose it. It’s more expensive than Bliss Street but the most expensive investment for me remains the equipment,” says Bissat.

Having already developed a reputation for her indoor cycling classes at Bliss, Bissat decided to go all out in Saifi, doubling the number of bikes to 30 and offering twenty one weekly classes instead of just three. Bissat even worked with an American consultant who had designed the interior of around 80 indoor cycling studios to get everything from the backdrop details and positioning of the bikes to the lighting and the music just right. “It’s a new concept in Lebanon to be so specialized but I wanted to try something new and I love being specialized because specializing in one trend means you stay on top of the industry and provide the best service,” explains Bissat.

Bissat has been pleasantly surprised by the response the new Saifi studio has had so far, especially considering the summer months are usually slow when it comes to sports. But Exhale was kept busy with expats who had previously done indoor cycling in similar studios abroad and were happy to see it take root in Lebanon. “We were able to achieve results but my real test will be from September to December,” says Bissat adding that four of Exhale Saifi’s classes have waiting lists because of their good timing or the instructor’s popularity.

Exhale has a wide range of clients of all ages and genders. “Most of them have traveled abroad and know what a big deal cycling is. There is something about indoor cycling, in the energy and the music, which is addictive,” enthuses Bissat.

Exhale also offers personal training sessions at the studio, with prices ranging from $55 to $65. Bissat claims they are doing well as clients today enjoy the one-on-one attention, particularly when it comes to fitness.

Maya Nassar’s Start Living Right App

By now, the story of Maya Nassar, Lebanon’s first fitness bodybuilding and bikini competition champion, is relatively well known. As she recounts it, Nassar used to be overweight and felt insecure so she decided to take matters into her own hands and embark on a fitness journey based on her own extensive research on clean diets and weight loss programs. So she set out a personalised program which included both nutritional changes and working out six times a week under the supervision of a personal trainer. “I am proud that I did it myself and no one helped me. I was fascinated with the subject and addicted to the results of feeling good, having energy and confidence and losing weight on a weekly basis,” enthuses Nassar.

In three short months, Nassar had lost more weight than she’d originally planned to. Without wanting to stop there, Nassar challenged herself further by signing up to take part in a female body building competition. “I thought of trying it for the challenge and for the preparation training it would involve, not necessarily to win. Just being on the stage with the other girls would be like winning for me,” says Nassar, explaining that since female bodybuilders are rare in Lebanon, she had to train alone and had no one to share her experiences with.

While training for the competition and even on her initial fitness journey, Nassar, who was always passionate about writing, recorded her experiences on her personal Facebook page. Towards the end of July 2013, she realized the positive feedback and fitness questions she had been getting from her friends online and decided to launch a fitness website called Start Living Right which would motivate and inspire those thinking of launching their own health and fitness programs. “There are a lot of scams regarding diet and fitness so I wanted to be very honest and provide simple, unbiased information for people. I don’t have advertising and I am not trying to sell anything so I am not impartial,” explains Nassar.

Nassar says the website did really well because a lot of users were writing to her saying that she had inspired them in their fitness journeys. The website now has 8,000 unique visitors. Because of the website’s positive performance, Nassar decided to launch a mobile application with the same features of the website, including the calorie counter and the motivational articles but with a few additions such as the animated workouts divided into the body’s muscle groups.

The application has 15,000 downloads so far and Nassar says she and her developers are working on a few more additions. 70 percent of Nassar’s online clients are women, mainly from Lebanon and the Middle East, but she says she also has users from England, Russia, India and Turkey. The website and applications are slightly geared towards the Middle East in that the calorie counter includes food items which are common to this part of the world and not usually found in international calorie counter applications.

Nassar has no structured marketing but says that what has helped her gain exposure was being officially endorsed by the Lebanese Ministry of Sports to represent Lebanon in female bodybuilding competitions, garnering her a lot of media attention. “I wanted to do this to counter the stereotype of female bodybuilders as being very muscular and unfeminine which is not necessarily true,” explains Nassar.

Nassar’s journey in fitness does not stop here; the young health and fitness leader has plans to open her own gym soon. “My advantage is that I have a lot of followers, on both my website and application. Many of them contact me wanting to work with me but I don’t have a physical location to help them. I plan to drive traffic from my website and application to my gym when it finally opens and use this as a physical location where I’ll be able to help the people I’ve been thus far helping online.”

It is clear that Nassar’s heart really is in it. “For me, it’s more about passion than work. It’s something I enjoy doing,” she concludes.

U Energy

When Alex Nazarian, CEO of U Energy gym, first moved to Dubai, UAE, he was disappointed by all the large franchise gyms available there which cater to the masses and lack personalized attention, as opposed to smaller gyms which tend to have a more unique feel.

Seeing this prompted Nazarian to launch U Energy gym in Dubai in 2012. Although he says he had no previous experience with the fitness business, working instead in his family’s textile manufacturing business, his passion for sports and his lifelong ambition of setting up his own business encouraged him to take this decision.

In August 2013, Nazarian brought U Energy to Beirut. He chose Downtown as the location since it is primarily a business area and he felt at home in such an environment after his experience with U Energy Dubai at the Dubai International Financial Center. The second U Energy opened in Bliss Street around early May 2015, attracting a lot of professors and doctors as clients in addition to university students from AUB and LAU. Nazarian plans to open a U-Energy gym in Hazmieh and another in Antelias as he believes there is still room for growth of the fitness industry in Lebanon.

Nazarian describes his clientele as trendy, fit and young, between the ages of 21 and 50. These are all factors he keeps in mind when choosing locations for his gyms.

Membership fees in U Energy vary between corporate, student and regular memberships but fall within a rough average of $140 per month if the client commits to an annual package. Personal trainers cost $45 to $50 per session. While the fee is not as low compared to other gyms, Nazarian sees his gym as “boutique”, catering to a small number with classes of up to 16 students as opposed to others which pack theirs with around 50 students, allowing for more personalized attention. “I consider myself a boutique health club. Our price range is at the medium end so we are not looking for the masses. I aim for an average of 600 members at the gyms that I open and we are pretty close to reaching that number in Downtown,” explains Nazarian.

The personalization concept extends to developing classes unique to U Energy gym instead of importing workouts from abroad. “Most gyms in Lebanon follow the Les Mills approach of body pumping and body combat where the Les Mills Company sends standardized choreography, steps and music which the trainers here have to apply to the dot. We, instead, much prefer to cater and develop our workouts based on our clients’ needs,” explains Nazarian.

Among the biggest challenges Nazarian faced was finding qualified trainers. He explains that although both the Antonine University and the Lebanese University offer a Physical Education degree, he believes that it’s not enough to simply qualify to be a trainer, preferring to train his staff in-house. “We give research workshops twice a week for all our trainers to better themselves because ultimately, personal trainers are like doctors in that they deal with your body and therefore must be sure not to hurt you and make a problem worse,” says Nazarian.

In parallel to U Energy, Nazarian has also developed a new concept called Go by U Energy. This is strictly personal training, where the customer books sessions with a PT, with one small studio where one class called Go is given. Nazarian describes Go as “the ultimate high intensity class: a combination of everything you need to get toned and fit.”

The first Go by U Energy has already opened in Gemmayzeh and Nazarian plans to open a few more if the concept takes off. “It’s much smaller so you can find smaller locations with good rent prices and actually open more of these. People want this because they want personal trainers or smaller classes as I can tell from my clients at U Energy,” explains Nazarian.

Nazarian acknowledges that Lebanon has a long way to go before reaching global fitness trends and blames this on a lack of education. “Lebanese have the backdated idea of fitness being mainly about bodybuilding, but abroad it’s completely changed and is more about functional training. Today more and more people want to be fit and healthy, and this is a good thing because it will get people more educated about fitness,” says Nazarian adding that the recent surge in gyms in Lebanon is a positive sign and that he welcomes the competition as it pushes him to better himself and ultimately better serve the clients and the industry.

October 26, 2015 0 comments
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Tourism and Hospitality

Fitness on an incline

by Nabila Rahhal October 26, 2015
written by Nabila Rahhal

Over a decade ago, gyms or fitness centers in Lebanon evoked images of steroid pumped men grunting loudly while lifting heavy weights, or leotard clad women enjoying aerobics classes led by smiley and energetic trainers with questionable training abilities. The Lebanese fitness industry has since grown significantly, inspired by global trends of wellness and healthy living. This growth stretches across the industry and manifests itself in the increased number of fitness centers, the variety of sports activities available and the rising awareness of the importance of hiring certified trainers.

Growth in fitness

Emile Baroody, Vice President of Baroody Group sal, a sports company established in 1912 which represents Technogym, a commercial fitness equipment brand, places the industry’s annual growth at about 15 to 20 percent over the last five years, based on his own estimates.

Naji Saliba, managing director of Young Trading Co, established in 1997, which represents Life Fitness, an American brand of commercial use fitness equipment, also cites significant growth over the past three years, naming at least four gyms which have opened in Beirut and Mount Lebanon in the last three years.

Components of the industry

The fitness industry is divided into two main categories. One is the purchasing of equipment for residential, personal use. The second is commercial use and is itself divided into various subcategories including hotel gyms, corporate gyms, fitness facilities in residential compounds and health clubs.

The use of fitness facilities in residential compounds is the one that has seen the most growth since 2009, according to Saliba. Both Saliba and Baroody list more than ten residential developments which have bought fitness equipment for the residents’ gym and Saliba places the budget for these gyms at $100,000 each.

[pullquote]The latest trend in commercial fitness equipment is for it to be technologically connected overseas[/pullquote]

Speaking of hotel gyms, Saliba says this particular sub market has not witnessed a significant growth because no major hotels have opened in Lebanon in recent years. Baroody says that, with the exception of the five star or international names, hotels in Lebanon do not view their fitness room as an important revenue source for their outlet and as such do not invest in good quality fitness equipment, preferring instead to buy cheaper Chinese brands or second hand machines. “It is a short term vision because in the long run, clients will appreciate hotels with a professional quality gym,” admits Baroody, adding that some five star hotels in Lebanon make money out of their hotel gym by opening it up to non-guests for an annual membership fee.

Increased interest in fitness centers

Fitness centers remain the biggest category of commercial fitness in Lebanon, with Saliba placing 90 percent of the country’s gyms in Beirut, Mount Lebanon and the North up to Tripoli.

Patrick Bejjani, founder of 4 Actions Academy which educates and certifies fitness and personal trainers, has a long history in the health club industry, starting out as a trainer before establishing 4 Actions in 2011. Bejjani finds that, in general, the Lebanese show a greater interest in attending health clubs and training sessions today than they did in past years. “There is definitely more interest in working out. You see it in the increased number of gym memberships, in the social media posts of people using the gyms and in the general vibe of wanting to be healthy,” says Bejjani. Saliba believes this growth in the fitness club business is led by women who are working out more now, especially with personal trainers.

Investing in fitness

Because fitness equipment for commercial use is built to last at least ten years, it is not cheap, with both Saliba and Baroody placing the cost of machines between $5,000 and $25,000, depending on the specifications and how technologically advanced the equipment is.

Baroody explains that, while five years ago the most important criteria for gym operators in selecting machines was the cost and length of the warranty, today they prefer instead to base their selections on their gym’s needs, such as safety of the machine, its durability and its entertainment options.

The latest trend in commercial fitness equipment is for it to be technologically connected overseas, with Saliba explaining that Life Fitness machines are now networked to the main office in the USA so that whenever a malfunction occurs, Headquarters informs the local representative first. Technology and entertainment are also central components of gym equipment selection, with many of today’s cardiovascular machines equipped with smart screens which create virtual scenes for runners (such as running on the streets of Paris) or allowing cyclers to connect with and race each other within the gym.

Despite the high costs of the machines themselves, the biggest expenses for a gym operator is rent. “The gym equipment and decor may be expensive, but it is an investment which is made once and lasts ten years. Rent, on the other hand, is an annual expense,” says Saliba, adding that some gym operators own the facility’s property and as such are able to generate profit much faster than those who have to pay rent.

The costs of operating a gym do not end with the rent and equipment. They include other overhead costs such as electricity, water and maintenance, with the bigger gyms that have pools or sports fields incurring even more charges, explains Saliba.

According to Bejjani, monthly membership fees and the cost of personal training (PT) sessions have not significantly increased over the past five years and still range between $130 to $200 at the good quality gyms and $40 to $60 for most PTs. He explains that, while prices have remained stable because they cannot afford to be raised considering the limited income of most Lebanese, the expenses for gym operators have nonetheless increased.

The rise of the small gym

Elevated expenses have caused gym operators to migrate towards establishing smaller gyms rather than the traditional big gyms which boasted membership of 1,000 members or more. The concept of the smaller gym focuses on the new trends of Crossfit (Olympic style exercises) and functional training (exercising the way the body moves), thereby saving on rent and fitness equipment. Saliba adds that popularity for this type of gym is growing in Lebanon, naming four which have opened in the last year alone.

Bejjani and Baroody have noticed that small studios or boutique gyms are also on the rise, pointing out six personal training studios which only offer sessions with a personal trainer and do not provide membership. According to Bejjani, the reason for this shift is that private trainers who develop a big clientele list are tempted to set up their own practices, making more money that way than when they have to give a percentage of their earnings to the gyms that employ them.

Personal trainers

Trainers are arguably the heart of any gym, capable of bringing in increased revenue when they garner a loyal customer base who come specifically to train with them.

Fitness instructors, however, are not yet represented in the ministries and don’t have a syndicate or an order to represent them. This is despite the fact that they, like physiotherapists who do have syndicate representation, work in the healthcare industry and are liable to causing serious injuries to clients if not well educated in their business, laments Bejjani.

Although certification programs for fitness trainers have always been available in Lebanon, they have only recently become a proper industry, adopting international standards and increased awareness about the professional significance of having certified trainers.

[pullquote]The concept of the smaller gym focuses on the new trends of crossfit and functional training, thereby saving on rent and fitness equipment[/pullquote]

Realizing the new potential in this burgeoning business, and looking to bring international standards to the fitness industry in Lebanon, Bejjani quit his job as a personal trainer at Fitness First and established 4 Actions in 2011, becoming the sole agent of the double accredited International Fitness Professionals Association (IFPA) in the Middle East and North Africa.

Bejjani started by offering IFPA courses at the Panacea gym in exchange for educating the gym’s trainers for free, but quickly moved from giving the course in several other gyms to finally renting his own premises in Abraj Center, Furn El Chebak, in 2014. “With my growing list of students, I felt I needed a home base where students could interact with each other, relax and read up on fitness,” explains Bejjani who has graduated over a 1000 students up until today. The course costs $800 and Bejjani admits that in Lebanon he is only able to break even, whereas he is able to make real profit when he teaches the courses in Saudi Arabia or the UAE.

Personal training is a growing business in Lebanon, attests Bejjani, with the trend moving towards group personalized fitness where a maximum of five clients train with a PT at lower cost than solo PT sessions. “The last five years saw a big growth in personal training because people want to gain the most out of their workout session. There is more profit for gym operators in this as well, since trainers can charge between $50 and $100 per hour, of which the gym gets a cut. So naturally they encourage it,” explains Baroody.

The future of Lebanon’s fitness industry

While the Lebanese fitness industry has been steadily on the rise, there is of course always room for further growth. Saliba says the penetration of active gym users in Lebanon is low, placing it at 3 percent, in comparison to the USA which has 14 percent market penetration. “There is still room for the market to grow because in Lebanon we have a comparatively lower use of fitness equipment per capita when compared to other countries in the region such as Dubai,” says Baroody.

Whether this growth in the fitness industry manifests itself in the creation of more gyms or into other forms of sports training remains to be seen. Either way, it is a positive sign that more and more people are getting out and moving their bodies in the hope of achieving a healthier lifestyle.

October 26, 2015 1 comment
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Tourism and Hospitality

50 shades of hotel Le Gray

by Thomas Schellen & Nabila Rahhal October 22, 2015
written by Thomas Schellen & Nabila Rahhal

When you sit down at a sidewalk table of Gordon’s Café in downtown Beirut on a balmy late September afternoon, you can sip your espresso or pot of Sencha (green tea) in the middle of the city, nestled between the restored historic Beirut Municipality building, and the nation’s symbol-laden Martyr’s Square, with a view of the port basin and the coastal mountains behind it. As such, Gordon Campbell Gray, CEO of the company that operates Le Gray Hotel, does not hold back from declaring that he feels, “Le Gray has the best location in Beirut.”

However, this is a doubled edged sword since, says Campbell Gray, “when there is trouble, it is the worst [location] because it all happens outside our front door.” This summer, since civil society and political protest movements have regularly converged in downtown Beirut from August 22, “it all” meant roadblocks and cordons of riot police, tense standoffs between demonstrators and security forces, and, one September Sunday, even the sight of political thugs assaulting protesters who dared call certain politicians “corrupt”.

Campbell Gray had a bird’s eye view of the attacks by thugs, from the balcony of the suite he was staying at for one of his frequent business visits to Le Gray, and it shook him. “I have always loved Lebanon but my love affair has been cracked for the first time. Although I am quite an optimist, it’s really depressing at the moment,” he tells Executive the day after the disturbing event.

According to him, the hotel staff dealt professionally with guest needs during several tense hours that day, but no effort could shield Le Gray from losing business this summer, including last-minute event cancellations. And the troubles in front of their door were not the first in the hotel’s six-year history of operations. From construction delays forced by the unstable Lebanese situation in the mid 2000s to travel warnings amid regional unrest in more recent years, it seems safe to assume that Le Gray experienced more unpredictability and tough business cycles than periods where management could comfortably anticipate the results of the coming quarter.

Campbell Gray refuses categorically to disclose any operational results of Le Gray just as he will not say how much CampbellGray Hotels, the company which operates Le Gray under his leadership, invested into making the hotel the group’s flagship property and how much or little these investments had been paying out.

But here is where the story takes another surprising turn. Despite everything that happened to curb business this summer, the group is planning to invest in refurbishing previously unused areas located behind the hotel’s current atrium, adding 16 new guest rooms, a ballroom, a lobby lounge, a private screening room and a chocolate shop to Le Gray. Scotsman Campbell Gray declines to provide an investment amount for the expansion that will be carried out starting this month [October] but does tell Executive that it will be “millions, upward of $10 million.”

The investment is not a singular endeavor for Campbell Gray Hotels but rather a part of an expansion project focused on the Middle East. In the following conversation with Executive, Campbell Gray provides more about that growth.

E    Can you tell us more about the new property in Abdali, Amman?

Basically everything is under the umbrella of Campbell Gray Hotels, but this new concept being built in Abdali is Le Gray Living which consists of offices, a hotel and apartments. We’re curating all the retail so we are in charge of the whole thing. All of this will be going into Le Gray Living which will be brought to Dubai as well.

E   So are you starting to compete in the field of large complexes with things like serviced apartments and retail spaces which, in this region, one normally associates with a multi-level operator such as Emaar Properties?

I think the scale is smaller since we are private. We are not trying to compete at this level [of a mega operator such as Emaar] because I’ve never thought that big is beautiful.

E   The CampbellGray website says that you are refurbishing the Phoenicia Hotel in Malta, and that it is a Grand Hotel. Your first globally noted property, the One Aldwych in London, was often described as a boutique hotel. How do you align such divergent identities?

I never thought of One Aldwych as a boutique hotel; I wanted it to be a modern classic and do all the things that a five-star hotel offers, [but] in a slightly more modern and relaxed way. I also wanted to create an inclusive atmosphere. What we did was eliminate the possibility of a two tier approach [in dealing with guests]. This relates all the way round – when anyone joins the company I personally do the induction and say that we are all the same and merely have different responsibilities.

E    Looking at the style of properties that are operating or are under development, it seems you lean toward extremes. You have Beirut, with Amman and Dubai coming up, plus Malta, and then there is a resort in Scotland that you are working on. Can one present them in the manner of similar properties in a branded group?

We want them all to be little masterpieces in their own right. I’m excited about Malta because it’s completely original. I think you can stay in this [Le Gray Beirut] and [also] enjoy the Malta property. It’s going to feel comfortable and a little old fashioned but not a vestige of the past. The idea is to make it comfortable and sex it up a bit but without turning it into something silly. The brief that I have to make this really interesting is to put Malta on the agenda for people who have never been there; I first promote the country and then the hotel. It also was how I promoted this [place]. It was about Beirut. I said you must come to Beirut and by the way, you must stay with us.

E   How about factors in hotel operations that are often said to be crucial, such as achieving economies of scales through large brands and having the advantage of a big group’s booking networks?

We have a wonderful relationship with Leading Hotels of The World [a network of independent luxury hotels]. For us, that works beautifully. The great advantage today, with internet accessibility, is that people can do so much online. So many of my favorite hotels in the world are privately owned one offs and statistically they nearly all have a higher RevPar (revenue per available room) and occupancy [than the hotels under big brands] because there is a desire for individuality.

[pullquote]We want [all our properties] to be little masterpieces in their own right[/pullquote]

E   Do you have investors in Le Gray?

Yes, I have local investors; we always try to partner with local investors which I think is very good. I want the product to be beautiful and I believe with the right finance directors and people around me, the bottom line can’t miss.

E   Are you more of a proprietor or an operator in your way of working?

We have been both and we can be both. I have recently merged my company Campbell Gray with the Audeh Group and that has given quite a bit of firepower to invest. The Audeh family owns the [Le Gray Living project] in Abdali and so there are no [other] investors in that project.

E   How busy does this partnership make you and do you have anything else up your sleeve?

At the moment we have three hotels being designed at the same time and this is really tiring because everything has to be detailed and the food has to be thought out properly, the chefs hired, the teams trained… I couldn’t do any more.

What I am very aware of is that there is a huge desire for individuality everywhere, and if you want to roll out twenty hotels in one year, how can they be fabulous? I know what it takes to create a hotel and I am doing it with a new brand, a more affordable one which is codenamed Baby Gray. It is huge work to create this brand. I am thinking through every detail to make it affordable, attractive, sexy, and young. The big thing now is developing the Baby Gray. I think you could put a Baby Gray in Dubai, [or] in Barcelona, and it could travel anywhere. It is less expensive to create and has less staff, with a very good business model. We could roll that out more because they can be replicated quite easily.

E   Do you see it growing regionally or globally?

The word global is a little pretentious, but we are being asked by investors to [develop it] in quite interesting places and if somebody said we would love to do a Baby Gray in Buenos Aires or Iran, I would say, “I’ll meet you there tomorrow.” My only main criterion [for selecting a location] is that it has to be a city where I would like to wake up in the morning.

E   What is your primary passion?

I am passionate about everything I do – I am a creator. My passion is to curate things that are successful. So when I say that I am not a money person, I do not personally need to make money. But I am very keen on making a business that has to be successful and I am meticulous about it being a good business model.

E   Do you think Le Gray became a gateway to the region for CampbellGray Hotels as it was so successful despite the challenges which you encountered in Beirut?

Definitely. It was unintentional because I had never considered the region before, ever. I saw this place as an outpost and kind of an adventure but it got bigger than I ever expected it to be, so it exposed us to the region. The reason why they wanted us in Dubai or Amman is because they had stayed here [in Beirut] and thought ‘I would like that [too]’. So the answer is a big yes, unexpectedly.

October 22, 2015 0 comments
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Oil & gas 2015Special Report

Forbidden no more

by Mona Sukkarieh October 22, 2015
written by Mona Sukkarieh

Lebanon was most likely a marginal topic on the sideline of nuclear discussions in Vienna, but the nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 group is expected to have direct implications on local Lebanese politics. Since the deadlock in Lebanon is largely a reflection of regional deadlock, it would be reasonable to expect a possible regional appeasement to contribute to unlocking the situation in Lebanon. The immediate post-Iran deal period is expected to be a period of hesitation and testing until the time is ripe for broad arrangements. While the overall regional balance is expected to tip in favor of the Iranians, in Lebanon, arrangements between Iranian-backed factions and Saudi-backed factions are inevitable, both at the political and business levels.

While the world prepares for investments in Iran, a Lebanese-centered approach considers how the deal could free up Iranian investments in Lebanon, particularly in the energy sector, long limited by sanctions, and a certain reluctance from some Lebanese. In the past, Iran expressed repeated interest in the Lebanese energy sector. Tehran offered to rehabilitate the country’s two refineries (currently inactive and used for storage only), build a power plant under favorable terms, and supply Lebanon with oil and natural gas. These projects faced a number of challenges and their feasibility was not always ensured.

Supplying Lebanon with gas and/or oil

Supplying Lebanon with gas faces a number of challenges. Gas can be exported either by pipelines or chilled to a liquid form and transported by specialized tankers. The first scenario, (exporting gas to Lebanon via pipeline), requires building the pipeline which has to pass through some of the most unstable countries in the world. With regards to the second scenario, Iran had several projects for building liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants and even started working on one, but work was suspended due to sanctions. Developing LNG capabilities is costly and it is going to take Iran several years to build the necessary infrastructure, even if Iran is considering a floating LNG platform. Supplying Lebanon with gas is not feasible in the short term, but could become a possibility a few years down the road. On the other hand, supplying Lebanon with oil and other petroleum products would be less problematic.

[pullquote]Tehran has repeatedly proposed to supply lebanon with electricity[/pullquote]

Electricity

Lebanese demand stands at approximately 2,500 MW per day (with peak demand exceeding 3,000 MW), while the available capacity is limited to 1,500 MW, causing severe shortages, covered mostly by private diesel generators. The 2010 Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector proposes measures to improve performance, and, more significantly, cut the energy bill by $1.5-2 billion per year. The paper suggests achieving this by reducing dependency on expensive imported oil, and gradually converting existing power plants to operate using natural gas. At a conference in December 2014, an LPA board member estimated that 65 percent of the power generation capacity could be generated using gas. Power plants in Deir Ammar and Zahrani are fit and ready to receive natural gas. With some minor modifications, two other power plants, in Tyre and Baalbeck, could be made to receive natural gas. LNG import terminals and a coastal pipeline are planned to support the implementation of the conversion process. The pipeline is set to supply major power plants along the way, in addition to factories and industrial plants.

Tehran has repeatedly proposed to supply Lebanon with electricity over the past few years (Iran exports around 25,000 MW per day and has a surplus of production estimated at around 6,000 MW), and build additional power plants at favorable conditions.

Participation in exploitation of potential oil & gas resources in Lebanon

In 2013, the only Iranian company that sought to pre-qualify for Lebanon’s first licensing round, the National Iranian Drilling Corporation, failed to do so. Also, notably absent from the list of companies that pre-qualified for the tender are any Qatari or Saudi companies. The indifference Saudis and Qataris demonstrated towards the sector at the time was likely part of a broader policy to ostracize a government they perceived as dominated by Hezbollah, a Shiite, pro-Iranian political party. Qataris and Saudis seemed largely focused on the composition of the government back then and did not take into consideration the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle or a change in the balance of power in the country, which ultimately happened with the resignation of then-Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and the appointment of Tammam Salam as Prime Minister.

The idea of a second pre-qualification round is being considered. While it may be justified on certain technical grounds – the initial pre-qualification round was organized in February-March 2013 – it is believed that one of the undeclared reasons justifying the organization of a second pre-qualification round is to make room for new companies hailing from friendly countries. This was best illustrated by Mohammad Qabbani, a Future Movement MP and head of the Parliament’s Energy Committee who told Al-Manar TV in December 2014 that organizing a second pre-qualification round would allow companies “from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar” to participate in the tender and “help us exploit our resources”.

Similarly, it would not be far-fetched to imagine an Iranian company applying to pre-qualify, more likely as a non-operator. In a meeting with Energy Minister Arthur Nazarian on September 8, Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammad Fathali expressed the readiness of Iranian companies for cooperation in the exploration and exploitation of potential oil and gas resources.

Refineries

In the past, Iran has offered to rehabilitate Lebanon’s two refineries. But it remains to be seen what Lebanon intends to do with them. Previous feasibility studies on the repair and modernization of the refineries questioned the utility of the project, from an economic point of view.

[pullquote]Notably absent from the list of companies that pre-qualified for the tender are any Qatari or Saudi companies[/pullquote]

Backed by an extensive and influential network of Lebanese-Iranian businessmen, Iran perceives Lebanon as a platform for developing its business presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, a region of rising strategic importance for Tehran. As usual, here too, there is competition. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Asia and Pacific Affairs Ibrahim Rahimpour visited Cyprus on September 20, a visit that followed Cypriot Energy Minister Georgios Lakkotrypis’ visit to Tehran in February 2015, highlighting both countries’ determination to strengthen cooperation. Rahimpour reiterated Iran’s offer to help Cyprus in the field of exploration, drilling, refining of oil and gas, and training of specialists. Timing is of essence, and as the experience with the first licensing round shows, Lebanon does not take into consideration the time factor.

In the past few years, few projects of cooperation between Lebanon and Iran were able to materialize, for political and legal reasons. With the lifting of sanctions, one of these obstacles has been removed. But, without a legal argument, it is going to be much harder now to justify automatically rejecting cooperation with Iran. In today’s context, dealing with Iran could be met with a form of suspicion by certain Lebanese. The energy sector, unlike other more “sensitive” areas of cooperation (such as military), can represent a good start.

Iran may even surprise the reluctants in Lebanon by adopting a non-confrontational approach. Iranians are more likely to diversify their business partners in the country (whether Lebanese or non-Lebanese, depending on the project), and will probably seek to initiate projects that would be perceived as benefitting the country, and not just a particular segment of society. The opposite would indeed be counter-productive.

In the past, there is no doubt that Iran’s determination to break the embargo could have motivated much of its overtures towards Lebanon’s energy sector. Once sanctions are removed, will Iranians be as motivated to be involved in Lebanon’s energy sector as they were before? If the answer to this question is uncertain, it is on the other hand certain that the competition at the geopolitical level with Saudi Arabia will encourage Iranian initiatives directed towards Lebanon.

October 22, 2015 1 comment
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Oil & gas 2015Special Report

A matter of clarification

by Matt Nash October 21, 2015
written by Matt Nash

While Lebanon opened its first offshore oil and gas licensing round in May 2013, international companies have not yet been able to submit bids because cabinet has not approved two necessary decrees (one outlining the tender protocol and model exploration and production sharing agreement, and another delineating offshore blocks up for bid). In April 2014, shortly after Prime Minister Tammam Salam formed his government, cabinet appointed a ministerial committee to study the draft decrees before approving them. The committee finished its work in July and sent the draft decrees back to the Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA), an advisory body with regulatory powers which reports to the Ministry of Energy. In a written response to Executive’s questions for this report, the LPA says the updated drafts of the decrees have been submitted to the prime minister “along with a request to put them on the council of ministers’ agenda.” Executive sits down with Minister of Energy and Water Arthur Nazarian to discuss the decrees, state revenues from seismic data sales, transparency and whether or not Israel is stealing Lebanon’s gas.

E   The government has been receiving revenue from the sale of seismic survey data. How much revenue does the government have from these sales to date?

I don’t think these are the questions you should ask. Governmental officials can ask, no problem. The audit court can ask. But this is not public information. Am I allowed to ask you how much money you have in your bank account?

E   No, but…

This is the same thing. This is not public information. We cannot say we have this much or we have that much revenue. This is state secrecy. But any government official or the audit court can ask, that’s no problem. Anyway, it’s in an account in the central bank. Of course, it is all transparent.

E   If you say so. Are there any plans for how to use the money?

Not for the time being, no.

E   A ministerial committee was formed on April 2, 2014 to study two decrees prepared in early 2013 necessary to move forward with the first licensing round. The committee submitted decrees back to the LPA in July of this year. It met twice, correct?

We met two or three times. But individually, the LPA went to each one of the committee members and met with them or their advisors. If [members or their advisors] had some questions or clarifications, the LPA answered. It was all discussed.

E   Can you tell us what specific changes to the decrees resulted from the committee’s comments and questions?

There were too many comments from variuos ministers to give a specific answer. The Ministry of Finance had financial questions. The Ministry of Environment had some environmental concerns. Each ministry had comments. Some of them were incorporated, some of them were not because they contradicted the LPA’s professionally drafted recommendations.

E   So, was this more of a learning exercise for the various ministers or did they have numerous relevant comments which resulted in substantial changes to the decrees?

Not every minister is an expert in the oil and gas industry, so it was a learning experience. But some of them had their own advisors who knew about the subject, so there were some informed questions or clarifications. Some changes to the decrees were made, but not, of course, substantial changes. The LPA drafted the decrees, and they are knowledgeable on the subject so the decrees were already well drafted. The LPA also had assistance drafting the decrees from foreign experts, the Norwegians for example.

E   There is an article in the pre-qualification decree that allows a non-qualified company to partner with a qualified company to pre-qualify as a joint venture. MP Joseph Maalouf calls this a loophole that invites the possibility of corruption and says it must be closed, meaning the decree should be changed and the three joint ventures that benefited from this article should be disqualified. Do you agree?

The article allows for joint ventures. A certain company can partner up with another company and they jointly apply to be pre-qualified. And they are pre-qualified because both of them have the credentials. It’s not that a non-qualified company applies with a qualified company. It’s a joint venture. A qualified company and another, any company, become one company. The credentials of both will become qualified.

E   MP Maalouf says specifically that this is a loophole that must be closed. It was the first point he made when describing his oil and gas transparency law to us. Do you agree?   

We gave him explanations to all the questions he asked. If there is any loophole, he should clarify where the loophole is. You can say there’s a loophole. It’s a saying. But if you specify the loophole, then we will see.

E   MP Maalouf did. He pointed very specifically to this article and said it’s a problem and it needs to be fixed. Did he say that to you and do you plan to do anything about it?

We answered each and every one of his questions. We gave an explanation.

E   Do you know who wrote this article in the pre-qualification decree? We know the decree was drafted by the LPA, approved by the ministry and then finally approved by cabinet. Only the final published version, not the drafts. Who wrote this article and what was the rationale behind it?

Do you think everything should be public?

E   Yes.

There are certain people, parliamentarians or government officials, that have the right [to see draft legislation], and they represent the people, no? MPs represent the people. So if anybody has any questions, they can ask through their members of parliament. We cannot go to the public with every issue and ask everybody for their comments because I don’t think anything would be finalized. It would never end.

E   Can you give more detail on what specific steps are underway for Lebanon to implement the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)? For example, has the LPA or the ministry drafted an unequivocal statement of intention to join the EITI, the first step in the EITI standard?

There are things that need to be prepared locally before we take the first step published in the standard. Implementing the EITI doesn’t involve only the Ministry of Energy. It’s government wide. When the LPA says steps are underway, this means the preparations are underway locally to take the first EITI steps. The first step for the EITI is this unequivocal statement. However, for the government to commit to this statement, there is some work to be done locally with the Prime Minister, Minister of Finance, and others. We are preparing the ground so the government is ready to make such a statement. Once we have the approvals, and relevant ministries are ready, and it is in line with our laws and so on, then we can commit to the EITI. This is what the LPA means when they say they are preparing the ground. They’re doing analysis of the existing legal framework concerning disclosure of information, for example, and so on. If the EITI contradicts our laws, we cannot make the unequivocal statement.

E   In July 2013, former Minister of Energy Gebran Bassil spoke at a press conference about Israel’s Karish gas field, which is near the border of Lebanon’s Exclusive Economic Zone. He said Israel is capable of stealing Lebanon’s gas. Speaker Nabih Berri has said Israel is stealing Lebanon’s gas. If I remember correctly, you’ve said the speaker never presented his evidence to you…

No. I said I don’t personally have any evidence. I didn’t ask the speaker if he had any evidence. I said if there is a joint field, the Israelis could be exploiting it. A joint field can happen between any two countries. Whichever country starts exploiting a joint field first, they have a potential advantage.

E   This seems to be a very important national issue – whether or not Lebanese gas is being stolen. Your predecessor said Israel was capable of this. The speaker says Israel is doing it. Are you following up on this in any way?

Israel might have the technology to do this, we are not sure. Maybe they are stealing our gas, maybe they’re not.

E   But you’re not following up in any way? You haven’t tasked the LPA with following up on this?

The LPA prepared a report describing what is technically feasible in theory. And this report was submitted to the cabinet. Now for an actual investigation, you need to be in the field to actually assess whether this is occurring or not, and that we cannot do ourselves. It is possible they are stealing our gas, we’re not saying it’s not.

E   The speaker says Israel is actually stealing Lebanon’s gas. But Lebanon is taking no actual steps to find out if this is true?

Maybe Berri has evidence I’m not aware of.

October 21, 2015 0 comments
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Oil & gas 2015Special Report

A wealth of data

by Jeremy Arbid October 21, 2015
written by Jeremy Arbid

The third time proved the charm for Italian oil and gas company ENI in the past 12 months. In late 2014 and early 2015, ENI and South Korean partner KOGAS found nothing when drilling offshore for hydrocarbons in Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). On August 30, 2015, however, the company announced the discovery of a “supergiant” gas field dubbed Zohr – estimated at 30 trillion cubic feet (tcf) – not far from its dry wells, but in Egypt’s EEZ.

While the Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA) tells Executive that, “It’s a bit early to evaluate how we should position ourselves in terms of further studies and assessments” of Lebanon’s EEZ in light of the ENI discovery, the dry wells have already led to some reanalysis of the data collected covering Lebanon’s offshore. The LPA says that two more studies of the data were performed to “better understand the sedimentations and the potential reservoir parameters in light of the recent failures of ENI in Cyprus,” without indicating what results these studies achieved.

Lebanon’s EEZ has already been extensively covered by both 2 and 3-dimensional seismic surveying. A new interactive map on the LPA’s website details where surveying has been conducted in both offshore and onshore Lebanon. The map also shows the delineation of the offshore blocks and those that will be tendered for exploration and production – information yet to be officially declared via a delayed decree. According to the LPA, blocks 1, 4, 5, 6, and 9 will be up for bidding whenever the licensing round moves forward.

An advisory body to the Ministry of Energy and Water with some regulatory powers, the LPA has been cautious about playing the numbers game when it comes to offshore prospectivity. As the ENI examples highlight, data only goes so far. Drilling is the only reliable way to know what lies below the seabed. That said, the LPA has previously offered so called P50 estimates for offshore blocks 1, 4 and 9. A P50 estimate means that there is a 50 percent chance of finding a certain volume of oil or gas. The LPA said that each block had a P50 estimate of at least 13 tcf.

And while offshore re-evaluation of data will continue, says the LPA, the real survey work in 2014/2015 was done onshore.

Onshore exploration: a brief history

The LPA’s map also shows where exploratory wells have been drilled onshore in the past. Exploratory wells drilled by the Iraq Petroleum Company (IPC) – before 1928 IPC was named the Turkish Petroleum Company, and many Western oil firms owned controlling interests in the company – implies a longstanding interest in Lebanon’s petroleum prospects since at least the 1930s and ‘40s. In 1938 a concession was granted by Lebanon to the IPC, forming the Lebanese Petroleum Company to control the exploration license. Delayed by the Second World War, the company did not begin drilling until the late 1940s.

According to IPC’s 1948 company handbook (pages 12 – 14), “Road making, building and work preparatory to drilling was then undertaken and a well spudded-in in May, 1947, on the Jabal Tarbol structure, in the presence of Lebanese Ministers and officials. By the end of 1947 it had reached a depth of some 4,500 feet, and by June 1st, 1948, 6,400 feet.” Later, in the 1950s and 1960s, the company drilled a number of wells across Lebanon at Yamour, Nahr Ibrahim, Al Qaa, Adloun, and Tall Znoub – none were successful. Demonstrating that even back then the investment costs of exploration were high and carried a significant amount of risk.

Onshore exploration: present day

NEOS GeoSolutions, a US based company, surveyed 6,000 square miles mostly onshore Lebanon in late 2014 and early 2015 with local partner PetroServ as an underwriter with $7.5 million invested. The new survey, as Executive has previously reported, provides a baseline of data indicating where potential oil or gas reservoirs might be located and narrows the focus of any future data acquisition. More data helps reduce risk and gives companies coming to explore more precision in where they plop down their drilling equipment in the physical search for petroleum, as well as, hopefully, reducing the number of wells they have to drill before striking it rich.

Just a few months ago, NEOS said the survey data helped identify onshore “sweet spots,” but, says PetroServ president Ziad Abs, companies are yet to purchase the resulting data, and further studies are needed before estimating onshore prospectivity. NEOS hopes to conduct additional studies, says Amanda Jane, NEOS’s Lebanon Project Manager, in an email to Executive. The company’s next step, depending on how the Ministry of Energy and Water decides to move forward, would be to conduct parametric drilling. The drilling aims to establish the precise boundaries of rock layers and as Jane points out, “serve as calibration points for seismic and non-seismic” surveying in the future.

When will drilling begin?

The million-dollar question is impossible to answer at this point. Lebanon’s first offshore licensing round launched back in 2013 technically remains open and cannot close until cabinet passes two decrees. The LPA’s website says that once the decrees are passed, bidding will close a maximum of six months later. Regulations for onshore exploration seem less advanced. As the LPA’s Wissam Chbat explained at a conference in June, bits and pieces of existing legislation (namely laws from 1933 and 1975 along with a cabinet decree from 2011 and a Ministry of Energy decision from 2013) mean Lebanon can legally move forward with an onshore licensing round, but the LPA and the ministry have drafted a new law specifically tailored to regulating onshore exploration and both prefer using that as a framework instead of what’s already on the books. Additionally, neither the ministry nor the LPA have indicated that tender protocol, model contracts or block delineation have been drafted for Lebanon’s onshore acreage. As to whether onshore or offshore exploration is a priority at the moment, Minister of Energy and Water Arthur Nazarian tells Executive in written answers to questions, “Preparations for both onshore and offshore petroleum activities are moving in parallel and they complement each other.”

October 21, 2015 0 comments
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Oil & gas 2015Special Report

Greasy politics in oil and gas

by Jeremy Arbid October 20, 2015
written by Jeremy Arbid

A picture of Fouad Makhzoumi meeting Pope Francis sits on a mantel next to photos of other global figures in the salon of his multi-story mansion in Lebanon’s posh Ramlet el Baida district. Executive had asked for a meeting with the businessman, philanthropist, and politician to discuss Lebanon’s potential petroleum resources. Makhzoumi has thus far organized two conferences aiming to build consensus in Lebanon’s oil and gas sector, and is planning another conference for later this year focusing on corporate ethics in the oil and gas industry.

Makhzoumi is chairman and chief executive officer of multinational company Future Pipe Industries, a manufacturer of pipe system solutions for the water, oil and gas, and industrial sectors. He is the man behind the Makhzoumi Foundation, a local non-governmental organization providing vocational training, healthcare, and micro-financing to underprivileged individuals. His political career includes founding Lebanon’s National Dialogue Party, a self-described secular political party publishing al-Hiwar newspaper.

E   What is your vision for developing Lebanon’s oil and gas sector?

I [returned]to Lebanon from the Gulf in the early 1990s. For me, everybody that succeeds abroad has an obligation to come back and pass on some of their experience. Unfortunately, we were wrong because what we have seen is a system that does not allow professionals to come in.

I believe that if we want to go for real development, we need to go for the underdeveloped regions. Plus, economically it makes a lot of sense – I need land, I need access to main roads, I need access to the borders because most of our industry is for export – it makes sense. I would like to concentrate not on Batroun where the minister would like to – Batroun is a touristic [area], and people there are not hungry. Where we need to develop instead is in Akkar and in the South. In Akkar I have two options – one is to train for oil and gas, and the second is to plan for the reconstruction of Syria. This should be the vision.

E   In your view, is oil and gas just another political bargaining chip?

Oil and gas is the future of our country, that’s why we went for it. Historically what we have seen is that every potential income generating sector is divided [along] sectarian [lines]: telecommunications, Sukleen, the airport, the duty free, the port. This is yours and mine, but we will both approve the transaction in the cabinet and the parliament so that nobody can claim [corruption]. [The 1940s] was the first time we drilled for oil in this country, so we have known about it for 60 plus years. But the regional powers, Syria and others – why would they allow Lebanon to become economically independent when really there are so many political issues that are still boiling?

The whole dynamics of the region is changing. For Lebanon it means [that] until this regional solution is settled, why would you allow warring parties in Lebanon access to cash in order to stop being in a position [where] they have to negotiate for a settlement. You starve the country – which is what’s happening. During this period our politicians figured maybe let’s see if we can divide the future wealth of Lebanon among ourselves, so that when the deal is allowed, then I [as a corrupt politician] have my concessions on this one, my option of 10 – 20 percent, my upfront fees, and this way we can secure [wealth for] our [families]. And this is what we have fought to stop.

E   How might they divide the future offshore oil and gas wealth?

It is easy. Lebanon is divided geographically [and] by sect – Shiite, Sunni, Druze, Maronite. So each one of these [former warlords, who now lead these communities] decided that if [a discovery is made out at sea, nearest to their] territories then it is theirs; not theirs [in the sense that] there is a registered certificate with it, but it is theirs politically under the [notion that] ‘I need to develop my people’ and to create jobs for them. But most of their people have nothing to do with the deal, because the deal is personal.

E   When you say politicians have divided up the country and each one has his area, would they have some sort of role in the partnership of a joint venture?

No, you know better. To allow the government to sign with ENI or Total, or with Gazprom, it means [the company would] have to [take care of a politician’s son] so that [the politician] basically has an option [to gain] 10 percent of that field if you were to find gas or oil.

E   How does that work?

It’s very simple. Instead of paying you a fee to be my [official] representative I can get two things from you: an upfront fee to [ensure] the government will sign with you, this is the cash part. And then, like a derivative, in case you start drilling I [as the corrupt politician] have the option to own 10 percent of [a concession], [and] sometimes it’s running up to 30 percent, against which if there is an actual [discovery] I can sell that to a third party. So it means I am buying [potentially] hundreds of millions of dollars on a piece of paper that [I] can sell at anytime and get out.

E   Aren’t there rules in the law to limit this sort of behavior?

In every country in the world the first thing you do is create an authority which is non-political. You get professionals, civil society members – you get everybody involved. What we have done – the [Lebanese Petroleum Administration] they are all professional – but at the end of the day, each represents a sect; the Greek Orthodox, Maronites, Sunnis, Shiites, Druze, and Greek Catholic. The fact that I appointed you as my religious, sectarian group – you better be nice with what I tell you because I will have them kick your ass out. So now we have a series of ceilings – the LPA has to report to the [Ministry of Energy and Water], the ministry has to report to the Prime Minister, the Prime Minister will have to go to the Parliament. But actually the people who are deciding are the ones who appointed you to be a member of [the LPA].

E   What is your motivation in organizing the National Wealth Forum for Oil and Gas?

Before [this year’s June] conference I went down to visit the LPA [and I asked them to] show me what [they] do. They were very defensive. I said it’s one of two things: either you show me what you do or I’m going to attack you. So recruit me, and since I’m not for sale you have to recruit me based on facts. We spent a few hours there. These are good people, they have good intentions. Unfortunately they have political bosses. So instead of trying to undermine the LPA and to join the band by attacking them, let’s capitalize on their strengths, give them the platform to explain what problems they’re having, and this way you create enough consensus behind them so that slowly you can move them away from the political influence that they are put in.

October 20, 2015 1 comment
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Oil & gas 2015Special Report

Show us the money

by Jeremy Arbid October 20, 2015
written by Jeremy Arbid

Though Lebanon’s oil and gas sector is effectively on hold, it doesn’t mean policymakers have stopped showing up to work. Lawmaking is not a high-speed process, even with a functional parliament and cabinet, and when it comes to building the legal framework governing the nascent sector, more time to draft bills and build consensus could arguably be a positive thing.

The most recently proposed oil and gas legislation is an anti-corruption bill introduced by Joseph Maalouf, a member of  parliament’s committee on energy, in April 2015. The MP has introduced the draft law aiming to mitigate illicit activity in Lebanon’s yet-to-emerge oil and gas sector and tells Executive that it has been fast tracked into committee by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a promising sign for the emerging sector. The minutes from a September 8 committee meeting however do not indicate whether the draft law was discussed. In any case, the parliament has not legislated this year and is unlikely to do so given the current political impasse and vacant presidency since May 2014.

Anti-corruption law

At a macro level, Maalouf’s law examines where corrupt activities may occur along the full lifecycle of an oil and gas project. He tells Executive that, “We took the process from the 3D mapping [seismic surveying] all the way to pre-qualifications, qualifications, and [tendering] the contracts. Within the contracts [we look at] each step that will happen and where the decision points are. We said that at this point there is possibility for corruption – any place where there is a decision point which someone could influence, we went into the details.” The law also covers downstream activities and the decommissioning of future wells, not only the first steps in an oil and gas project.

“I believe this is the one sector where we’re starting from scratch,” Maalouf says. “You can build foolproof systems easier when they’re already dismantled. Unfortunately, a lot of the corruption that exists in Lebanon has been ingrained in our social and political reality for decades.” The law itself prescribes penalties for a number of infractions including prohibiting ministry of energy staff – that includes the Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA) – from soliciting payments and gifts or accepting any type of consulting work or partnership in oil and gas activities while in office. The law provides the General Prosecutor with the authority to investigate and prosecute the law’s stipulated crimes, some of which may be punishable by three years jail time or a fine equivalent to the financial value of the infraction, or both.

But, Maalouf says, the law by itself is not enough. Transparency measures need to be systemic. In order to be most effective, Maalouf adds, the measures need to be in place at varying levels throughout the sector’s legal framework. In addition to his draft law, Maalouf says Lebanon must also ratify an access to information law, a law protecting whistleblowers, and establish a national anti-corruption agency. “These will move us from being linear to looking at the system across the board. The challenge in these and in other laws even when they’re enacted and even [with] the ministerial decrees for implementation, is that some of the laws are not being implemented period,” he says.

Robust legal framework needed

For their part, the LPA points to the Offshore Petroleum Resources Law (OPRL) and the Petroleum Activities Regulations (PAR) – a collection of decrees implementing the OPRL – as the foundation to safeguard transparency and accountability. Article 162 of the PAR requires any entity or individual involved in Lebanon’s petroleum sector to abide by local laws and the laws of their home country. Additionally, the decree forces those working in Lebanon’s oil and gas sector to abide by two international anti-corruption conventions: the United Nations Convention Against Corruption ratified by Lebanon into law in 2008, and the OECD’s Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in International Business Transactions. Lebanon has signed but not ratified the latter convention which in theory means that countries coming to operate in Lebanon won’t have to abide by it. The decree, however, demands that they do.

[pullquote]Unfortunately a lot of corruption in Lebanon has been ingrained in our social and political reality for decades[/pullquote]

Additional legislation from the United States – the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and a not-yet-finalized part of the so-called Dodd-Frank Act – as well as the European Union’s 2013 Accounting and Transparency Directives may also help Lebanon curb illicit behavior by individuals and entities hailing from those jurisdictions (see overview page 24).

Finally, the LPA says the required steps to adopt the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) – a tool for the disclosure of information that Lebanon’s civil society organizations could use to keep a watchful eye on transactions between the state and petroleum companies – are underway (see story page 28). Maalouf says the move to adopt the EITI can be initiated by either the LPA or the Ministry of Energy and Water (MoEW). He prefers having the commitment written as a law and ratified by parliament so that reporting requirements are mandatory.

Transparency measures pending approval

Cabinet is the ultimate authority for oil and gas policy in Lebanon and must approve all decisions related to the sector. Since 2013, two successive cabinets have been studying two decrees necessary to close the first offshore licensing round – one stipulates the tender protocol and outlines a model exploration and production sharing agreement between the state and oil companies, while the other deliniates the offshore blocks available to be licensed. The model contract draft decree includes two articles addressing transparency, the LPA says in a written response to Executive: “Article 41 of the EPA model (right holder conduct) contains provisions to insure transparency that are also based on anti-corruption and anti-bribery provisions. Additionally, Article 42 stipulates provisions concerning conflicts of interest between the direct or indirect interest of the right holder and its affiliates, and the interests of the state.” As the model contract is still awaiting cabinet approval, it is yet unclear when the decrees might be placed on the cabinet’s agenda for debate. Cabinet also has the legal authority to alter them so their final text is also, at this point, uncertain.

After nearly one year of being reviewed by a ministerial committee, the LPA tells Executive that all relevant ministerial comments have been incorporated and that the decrees are now with the prime minister’s office waiting to be added to cabinet’s agenda for debate. While this is a hopeful sign, Prime Minister Tamam Salam told the Washington Post in a September interview that, “We cannot reach an agreement between the political factions to adopt a policy to help us explore oil and gas in our economic zone.” So it seems unlikely that the two decrees will be passed in the near term.

A systematic local legal framework to complement international legislation is crucial to curb corrupt and illicit behaviors once Lebanon’s oil and gas sector moves forward. Ideally, these rules will be in place and implemented before the government signs any contracts but, Maalouf admits, the priority may be focused more on passing the decrees in the cabinet than legislating in the parliament. What follows are real examples from Lebanon’s nascent petroleum sector that anti-corruption legislation will help mitigate:

1) The potential for bribery

Earlier this year, a former executive of PetroTiger Ltd – an oil and gas company registered in the British Virgin Islands, a go-to jurisdiction to mask ownership identity – pleaded guilty in U.S. federal court to conspiracy to bribe a Colombian government official. The executive admitted to conspiring to make illegal payments to the Colombian official to the tune of $333,500 for his assistance in securing a $45 million contract.

That type of bribery is just one of the illicit activities people like Fouad Makhzoumi (see Q&A page 34) fear will be common in Lebanon’s oil and gas industry. An unsubstantiated allegation surfaced recently in al-Diyar, a local Arabic language publication. The author claimed an unnamed Lebanese official solicited a bribe from Italian oil and gas company ENI, one of the pre-qualified operators in Lebanon’s first offshore licensing round. Responding by email to Executive’s inquiry on the matter, ENI says the allegation is “completely false.” Tougher anti-bribery legislation can help ensure news items like this are never true.

2) Who ultimately benefits?

The garbage crisis has reinvigorated scrutiny over the registration of companies in jurisdictions that obscure or completely withhold ownership and shareholder information – Sukleen’s parent company Averda is owned by two companies registered in the British Virgin Islands.

When it comes to Lebanon’s oil and gas sector, disclosure of ownership is important, Maalouf says, because it will reveal who ultimately benefits from a company and also removes a layer of ambiguity that government decision makers could use to mask personal relationships or familial ties to companies. Executive last year looked into the Lebanese companies bidding in the offshore licensing round and found Apex Oil and Gas has obscured its ownership. The company is registered in Hong Kong – so it should be categorized as a Chinese participant, not Lebanese as the LPA still identifies it – and its true owners include UniGaz CEO Mahmoud Sidani and Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture of Beirut and Mount Lebanon Chairman Mohammad Choucair.

[pullquote] A systematic local legal framework is crucial to curb corrupt and illicit behaviors [/pullquote]

Maalouf says measures in his draft law will require the disclosure of beneficial ownership. In addition, Daniel Kaufmann, president of the Natural Resource Governance Institute and an EITI board member, tells Executive that governments and companies should expect beneficial ownership to be an EITI reporting requirement in the not-so-distant future (see Kaufmann Q&A page 28). According to the pre-qualification decree for Lebanon’s first offshore licensing round, the government is already collecting partner and shareholder information from those pre-qualified companies – details it has previously declined to provide to Executive.

3) Tracking draft legislation

There is limited transparency in the way legislation is drafted in Lebanon generally, and writing the rules for oil and gas has been no different. For example, the aforementioned company Apex has no experience in the oil and gas industry. It pre-qualified because existing legislations says that a company with no experience can find a qualified partner and qualify as a joint venture (see Q&A page 38). Last year Stephen Dow, a lecturer in energy specializing in emerging markets at the University of Dundee, told Executive that allowing non-experienced companies to pre-qualify in ultra-deep water jurisdictions like Lebanon is uncommon but not “intrinsically evil.” MP Maalouf says letting inexperienced companies pre-qualify is a legal loophole that needs to be closed – a conclusion Executive drew last year. He will try closing it, he says, but had no information about who wrote the provision or why it ended up in the legal framework.

While the procedure for how these decrees were drafted is publicly available information – the LPA produces a draft it sends to the Ministry of Energy and Water; the ministry can alter that draft or not, and then sends the draft to cabinet for approval. Cabinet, as has been mentioned, can also alter the draft. The various iterations of a decree are never published, and the only version of the decrees publicly available is the final version as approved by cabinet. Executive asked Maalouf if there is a legal mechanism to monitor the drafting process, “If you’re asking if we can track the content, have traceability in every step of the process, then the answer is no.”

4) What about the money?

That state revenues from seismic data sales – the first earnings from Lebanon’s oil and gas sector – are not being publically disclosed does not bode well for the potential billions more to come. In searching for clarity on the issue, Executive has not alleged theft or wrongdoing of any public official. Yet the government has stonewalled the question, trivializing its importance. When Executive asked then Minister of Energy Gebran Bassil in an October 2013 interview about the status of the money, he downplayed its significance, “You know this is very small compared to what we will be gaining, so I don’t know why you are… There is no ambiguity at all. This money is put in an account on which everybody agreed, and the Minister of Finance has approved. Without their approval we could not have opened an account.” Then he sued the magazine.

The Ministry of Energy, in a written response to Executive’s interview request, says one pre-qualified company bought additional offshore seismic data in 2014 and that no data has so far been sold this year. Qabbani suggested that the government’s share of revenues from data sales may have grown to $50 million – it was last publicly announced in March 2013 to total $34 million – but added that when he sought clarification on the issue he did not receive a response. Energy minister Arthur Nazarian tells Executive sales the revenues are “in an account at the central bank” but refuses to provide more detail (see Q&A page 38).

Executive has repeatedly requested clarification on the issue because of its importance as the first revenues of Lebanon’s oil and gas sector and the government’s repeated commitment to transparency. But until today, Executive has not received an official explanation concerning how the accounts are structured.

October 20, 2015 0 comments
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Oil & gas 2015Special Report

Transparency legislated

by Matt Nash October 19, 2015
written by Matt Nash

Starting next year, major players in the oil and gas industry will have some extra financial reporting to do. Any company listed on a European Union member state stock exchange (whether or not it is registered in the EU) or domiciled there will have to publish payments to foreign governments on a project-by-project basis beginning January 2016. A similar rule is under development in the United States as well, although it will likely not go into effect until later. The 2013 EU directive – according to a European Commission (EC) press release – is the result of campaigning in the late 1990s and early 2000s by civil society organizations around the world for more transparency in an industry long associated with bribery and corruption, particularly in impoverished but resource-rich developing countries. The goal of these measures, as the EC puts it, is to “provide civil society in resource-rich countries with the information needed to hold governments to account for any income made through the exploitation of natural resources, and also to promote the adoption of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in these same countries.” Unlike the new legal requirements for industry, the EITI is voluntary and puts the onus to report on governments. Some countries, however, are making the initiative’s requirements mandatory by codifying a commitment into law.

Given that Norway – which is not an EU member state – is currently implementing a similar reporting rule on its own, half of the 12 companies currently pre-qualified to drill as operators offshore Lebanon would be legally required to do project-by-project reporting if and when exploration and production begins here (three more companies are based in the US and could have similar reporting requirements in the future). This international push for transparency would go a long way toward making the bribing of Lebanese officials more difficult for international oil and gas companies operating in the country. This would alleviate the fears of corruption that local businessmen and politicians with industry ties, like Fouad Makhzoumi, have.

Following the money

Civil society players involved in the transparency push see a direct link between publishing payments by oil companies to developing country governments and more widely distributed economic prosperity in those countries. Daniel Kaufmann, president of the Natural Resource Governance Institute – an international NGO involved in transparency initiatives – tells Executive that, “There’s an enormous developmental rationale behind the transparency calls.” If citizens in developing countries know exactly what their governments are paid, they can demand those revenues be spent in certain ways or at least cry foul when they go missing, so the logic goes. As for whether or not development benchmarks can be legislated the way transparency was, Kaufmann does not see a practical way forward. “You cannot do development by edict, by law, unfortunately; otherwise we would have solved it a long time ago,” he says.

Block boundaries. Source: Lebanese Petroleum Administration & Executive.

Block boundaries. Source: Lebanese Petroleum Administration & Executive.

Lebanon is still years away from even knowing for sure whether or not it will have oil and gas revenues, yet local legislation exists – and more is being drafted – aimed at developing a clean hydrocarbon industry (see story page 36) with money well spent. The barrier to transparency and good governance moving forward – as always – will be proper implementation and enforcement of the laws in place if and when the money starts flowing.

Three questions for NRGI President Daniel Kaufmann

E: Oil and gas companies are not always completely honest about who their owners are. Some even register in jurisdictions that allow actual ownership to be obfuscated. The notion of beneficial ownership, therefore, calls for finding out who is really profiting from a business. Where does beneficial ownership stand today as part of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)?

Beneficial ownership is part and parcel of the expansion of the EITI requirements which began a year ago. Before EITI was very narrowly focused on the disclosure of revenues – the payments that companies made to foreign governments. But then it expanded very significantly to also include disclosure in terms of contracts, enterprise finances – and beneficial ownership is a crucial part of that expansion. It is quite complicated, requiring political will and consensus with many stakeholders. It’s in a pilot phase and not yet under fully fledged required implementation, but that is the direction it is moving, and we consider it an absolutely crucial part of the triangulation of information. It is very useful to know the payments, the revenues coming to the budget – if one doesn’t know what the original terms of the contract [were], how can one assess whether it is a good deal or not? And [knowing] who benefits [is important] because if there are interlinkages with politicians it might not benefit the whole population but only some cronies and elites.
So [beneficial ownership] is a crucial aspect but there is still a way to go before fully fledged required implementation. We are reviewing the results and lessons of the pilot phase so at the board level we can have discussions as to how it should be implemented. Because let’s face it, there are also practical issues regarding implementation. Do you always rely on public government registries? The answer is probably not. Instead, one goes to a company and basically asks them to fully disclose and there are ways to monitor and vet.

E: Is there a benefit to adopting the EITI for a country like Lebanon before signing exploration and production agreement (EPA) contracts?

Absolutely. Already you can start setting up the systems for transparency once the contracts come about – the structure of reporting. Many of the countries that might not be rich in natural resources are adopting the EITI because there are also issues of transit pipelines and the revenues from those. Or if it is an important financial center, or there may also be trading issues involving oil and gas at ports. So it is not all about production – for instance we’re working very hard for the Swiss to implement the EITI and they don’t have [a significant extractive industry] but they have very important trading companies.

E: How important is international legislation like the United States’ Dodd-Frank Act or the European Union’s Accounting and Transparency Directives to hold multinational companies accountable, and what can be done regarding governments?

The mandatory disclosure requirements following the Dodd-Frank initiative and the EU Directives essentially puts the pressure on companies to do their part to disclose. Why do I mention companies? In terms of the responsibility of the recipient government to also disclose that’s where the EITI is an important initiative. So what’s important [is that], eventually in Lebanon if there are deals for exploration and production, international companies report, and that will be governed by the EU Directives and the Dodd-Frank. That should be good enough, but from a Lebanon perspective it’s going to be making the government accountable and that’s where the EITI comes in – some countries are enacting legislation to implement the EITI to make it internally mandatory.

Revenue plans

The 2010 law governing offshore oil and gas activities calls for the creation of a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) with a dual purpose: spend some, save some. Article three of the law elaborates, “the capital and part of the proceeds [from oil and gas activities] shall be put in an investment fund for future generations, leaving the other part to be spent according to standards that will guarantee the rights of the State and avoid serious, short or long term negative economic consequences.” In an indebted country with poor service provision and crumbling infrastructure like Lebanon, hashing out the details of what gets spent, what gets invested, and how will be an important policy debate to follow.

One apparently settled revenue-related dispute is whether Lebanon should open all 10 offshore blocks for bidding in the first licensing round, or award rights to only a few blocks at first and have multiple licensing rounds over the course of several years, if not decades. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri allegedly favored the first game plan, which would have increased the state’s chances of bringing in cash as quickly as technically possible, which can still take up to a decade, because a commercially viable discovery is more likely if 10 blocks are being explored instead of only two. One drawback of licensing all blocks together is losing the ability to negotiate from a position of power in the future. If some blocks are held back from the first round of licensing and a big discovery is made, there will arguably be more interest in future rounds and the state might be able to secure better terms. The Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA) website lists five blocks as “open” (see map above), suggesting they will be the only ones up for bidding in the first licensing round. In a written response to questions for this report, the LPA speaks of “gradual licensing” as a way to “smooth revenues.”

The waiting game

When Lebanon will move from planning how to manage revenues to actually managing them is anyone’s guess. A commercially viable offshore oil and/or gas reservoir cannot be found until holes are drilled into the seabed. Lebanon intended to award offshore drilling rights to oil and gas companies in February 2014, but cabinet’s failure to pass two decrees (one outlining the tender protocol and model exploration and production sharing agreement, the other delineating offshore blocks up for bid) stopped this very important part of this sector’s development in its tracks. While the LPA notes that “this delay has a high opportunity loss cost,” lost time has not necessarily been wasted. Additional oil and gas prospectivity survey data has been collected in the past 12 months, and the LPA says it is re-interpreting existing offshore data in light of dry wells in a Cypriot offshore block that borders Lebanon’s acreage with plans to do more analysis in 2016. The more quality data available to drilling companies, the less time spent before well sites are chosen. Often countries have no data before signing exploration and production agreements, so when those deals are signed here, drilling could begin faster than industry average. That said, the 2010 law governing offshore sets a maximum limit for the exploration phase at 10 years.

Still a roll of the dice

Given how far away Lebanon is from production – assuming it ever gets there as the possibility of not finding a commercially viable discovery can never be ruled out – speculation on how current price trends will impact the future is arguably useless. Worth noting, however, are three wells drilled in the past year and the reminder they bring that fortune can so easily change. In late 2014 and early 2015, Italy’s ENI and South Korea’s KOGAS drilled two wells in a Cypriot offshore block near Lebanon’s offshore acreage. Both were dry. Around the same time the second disappointment was being burrowed into the seabed, France’s Total announced it wouldn’t even drill in the Cypriot blocks it had licenses for because the risk of failure was too high. After a 2013 downgrade in the estimated size of Cyprus’ only offshore find – a field called Aphrodite – the news made the already questionable proposal to build a multi-billion dollar liquefied natural gas export terminal seem even more unlikely. Not far to the southwest of the dry wells, but just across the Cypriot maritime border in Egyptian waters, ENI found the largest field yet in the eastern Mediterranean in August – dubbed “Zohr” and estimated at 30 trillion cubic feet of gas, it is larger than the previous record holder, Israel’s Leviathan. The find is so close to the Cypriot border that, at time of writing, there were speculations in the Cypriot press that it might bleed over, meaning Nicosia would get a cut of revenues under an earlier agreement with Cairo. Either way, Total said in response that it would re-evaluate plans for the neighboring Cypriot block to which it has rights. Even in times of decreased investment because of the price pounding, ENI’s discovery has certainly put the eastern Mediterranean back in the headlines.

October 19, 2015 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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