Ahead of the summer months, the Lebanese are again turning their thoughts to getting fit. The return of the In Shape fair to BIEL offered plenty of new ideas for getting that perfect beach physique.






Ahead of the summer months, the Lebanese are again turning their thoughts to getting fit. The return of the In Shape fair to BIEL offered plenty of new ideas for getting that perfect beach physique.
As part of Executive’s ‘10 Ways to Save Lebanon’ issue, we asked leading figures from a range of fields to put the case for one major changes for the country. In this article, Executive’s MENA business editor Thomas Schellen argues for better — and more independent — regulation.
A vacuum in the wrong place causes all sorts of disturbances. In numerous segments of Lebanon’s governance system, development has been obstructed by regulatory vacuums. Instituting a culture of independent and fully accountable regulatory authorities is a way to address deep-rooted deficiencies in economic policymaking and generate positive impulses for economic well-being that far exceed the direct areas of responsibility under their control.
The benefits of proper regulation are well documented. In the 1990s, World Bank researchers found a strong causal relationship between good governance and development outcomes, such as incomes, infant mortality and literacy.
Since that time, the worldwide governance indicators (WGI) have traced the long-term performance of countries for six governance indicators, one of them regulatory quality. According to the WGI, good governance is significant for development in that each ‘notch’ of improvement in governance tends to create 2.5 to 4 notches of improvement in economic and social outcomes. Not surprisingly, Lebanon is positioned in the lower half of the WGI readings for regulatory quality and has barely improved over the past ten years.
One way to take significant steps forward would be the creation of properly empowered and independent regulatory authorities to oversee different areas of government policy.
Reforming toothless agencies
Legislative and executive branches of the government are open to regulatory authorities. The first prominent example dates back to 2002 when Law 431 laid the foundations for the establishment of the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA). Since then, the most notable new authority has been the Petroleum Administration (PA), set up in late 2012 to oversee the tapping of the country’s offshore oil and gas resources.
[pullquote]Weaning the regulatory unit out of the ministerial nest would help in securing a more consistent flow of regulatory action[/pullquote]
The authorities have two major factors in common. First, both were set up at the time when the sector concerned had the greatest potential to drive Lebanon’s economic growth. The TRA was the outcome of a period when the initial rapid growth of the mobile communications sector had led to allegations of corruption and under-representation of state interests in the awarding of contracts for two mobile networks back in 1994. It was intended to reinvigorate the communications industry, which at the time was the second largest revenue source for the Lebanese state. Likewise, the PA was launched at a time when every political party was looking to oil and gas for the country’s future.
The second unifying factor is that neither body has been fully empowered. The TRA has yet to fulfill its mission to “liberalize, regulate and develop telecommunications in Lebanon” in many important components. Specifically, the liberalization roadmap of 2008 for privatization of the mobile and landline operators was a missed opportunity. The body is now, sadly, rather toothless. The PA is still at an early stage of its life cycle but it has, as this magazine uncovered last October, been subject to significant political pressures from all sides.
To improve regulatory authorities, what is needed is competence, independence and accountability. Competence in technical issues is such an obvious need that it should prohibit any consideration of loading regulatory authorities with political appointees, or with anyone without the highest qualifications in the required area of expertise. Independence of regulators from politics is critical for their efficacy. Independent regulators are mandated to respond to long-term needs, assess the entire set of cost-benefit ratios of a development or major initiative, and follow laws and standards that have been laid out for the duration of more than one electoral period.
Regulators must be held to the highest standards of transparency and must be accountable to elected representatives. This will ward against the dangers of becoming self-absorbed technocratic entities or, worst of all, colluding with special interests.
Currently, regulatory and supervisory functions for several areas are performed by units attached to various ministries. Some of these units are better equipped than others in terms of manpower and budgets, but all ministerial units have to contend with the high frequency of politically driven changes on the respective portfolio minister’s chair. Weaning the regulatory unit out of the ministerial nest would help in securing a more consistent flow of regulatory action.
Merit-based regulatory bodies with a clearly defined mandate and the requisite authority can be of value in streamlining competencies that have been historically distributed among ministries, with various complications in decision-making. Independent regulatory authorities can better address the development needs of important social infrastructures, such as — to name just two examples — health care and education.
To step into the workplace of the retail banking leader in Lebanon, one passes through the hallways and anterooms of a busy lender’s back office operation. With a view, albeit an unspectacular one, from the tenth floor, the corner space that BLOM Bank’s retail head Elias Aractingi commands at work is both functional, and a comfortable backdrop for a discussion of the bank’s retail performance.
The office is not located in BLOM’s gleaming banking palace in Verdun however, but a vigorous 10-minute jog away in the Hamra district. Aractingi says he frequently makes the short commute and quips that his department’s location in a secondary building was necessitated by their retail banking success of recent years, which has far exceeded expectations held in the 1990s when the headquarters building was designed.
“We are the leader in housing, car loans, personal loans and in credit cards if you look at outstanding balances,” Aractingi says confidently. In 2012, BLOM’s retail loans were worth $2.1 billion, 34.8 percent of its total $6 billion loan portfolio, according to the bank’s annual report. The latter expanded 5.3 percent to $6.3 billion by the end of 2013, according to the latest results.
It may be a stretch but the retail department’s distance from the head office illustrates the status of second fiddle that retail banking has historically played in the sector. Over on the other side of Beirut, the retail head for Byblos Bank, Gilbert Zouein, reminisces about how some competitors belittled the activity as recently as the 1990s.
“Retail banking has expanded very much since 1999, and even the mentality of the banks has changed,” Zouein tells Executive. “When we launched the first retail loans four to five years before the competition began to think about it, [other banks] said Byblos was foolish but we were really not the fools.” Unlike the vigorous double-digit growth rates of 2005 to 2011, market demand for consumer loans in 2013 was flat and as subdued as it had been in 2012, Zouain adds.
As the retail banking culture has taken hold, Zouein says Byblos has retained its edge as one of the top three banks to plough the fertile field of retail. According to Zouein, Byblos’ retail lending portfolio rose from $1.4 to $1.6 billion from 2012 to 2013. In 2013, the bank’s total net loans amounted to $4.5 billion, 9.5 percent up from a year earlier.
The Alpha lenders
Other Alpha banks (banks with deposits above $2 billion) say they have seen increases in their retail lending in 2013. Ronald Zirka, head of retail lending at Banque Libano-Francaise (BLF) says, “Last year was a good year for us in retail banking; we achieved an increase of more than 30 percent in BLF’s retail lending portfolio in 2013. We had not been expecting such numbers for 2013 because 2012 was not a very good year.” According to him, the lender, whose assets stood at $10.4 billion in mid 2013, saw growth of 15 to 20 percent in demand for car loans, and did 40 to 45 percent more business in housing loans.
For slightly larger peer Bank of Beirut (BoB), 2013 was also an “excellent year” in retail lending and similar in growth to 2011 and 2012, says Georges Aouad, the head of retail banking at BoB, adding that the bank’s retail portfolio grew from a very small volume of $30 million in 2005 to around $1 billion at the end of 2013. “The bank’s main driver of business and profits is still the corporate line, but we are growing on the retail side, and our retail banking contributes a share to the bank’s profits that is growing year after year,” he says, adding that the bank’s strong overall performance was reflected in profit growth from $117 million in 2012 to $147 million in 2013.
Opportunities in retail are also at the center of attention for Alpha group member Bank of Beirut and the Arab Countries (BBAC) and Bank Misr Liban (BML), a bank with a strong position in the Beta group. Both are among the numerous Lebanese lenders who have taken strides in developing their retail operations fairly recently.
BBAC’s head of retail, Camille Moujaes, explains that the bank’s top management is convinced of the potential of consumer banking and has committed to a sizeable investment into the retail side in order to reach asignificant share of profits from the activity. “In our loans-to-deposit ratios, retail lending represents 12 to 13 percent of total deposits while commercial and corporate loans represent around 30 percent,” he says. “In all our retail lending we are searching for new markets for purposes of diversification and that is why in 2014 we will focus on increasing our credit card base, which is still relatively small.”
According to Bassem Hassan, the assistant general manager in charge of retail at BML, the bank has awoken from a period of unremarkable performance after a management change at the end of 2007. Its growth rates in the past few years reflect the commitment to reposition the bank, and retail played an important role in that effort. Retail is a major growth driver for BML, he explains “because we need to regain market share.” He says BML reinvented itself over the past five years by renovating its branch network and expanding from 14 to 18 outlets, rejuvenating its human capital and developing retail products that had been wholly absent. “We moved from zero retail in 2008 to $110 million today and have 60 percent retail, and 40 percent corporate in our lending portfolio. [Within the retail portfolio] personal loans account for about 40 percent, car loans for around 10 percent and housing loans for another 40. The remaining 10 percent are divided between tuition loans, credit cards and other small products.”
Housing loans dominant
The growth of retail banking across the sector was strongly correlated to the expansion of the real estate market. This was on the one hand characterized by a surge in unit prices, and on the other hand aided by a spectrum of loan subsidies ranging from offers to low-to-average income earners under the scheme developed by the Public Corporation of Housing, to several rounds of subsidies for medium to medium-high earners which the Banque du Liban (BDL), Lebanon’s central bank, initiated in 2010.
At BLF, housing loans constitute 60 percent of the retail portfolio, Zirka explains, attributing the excellent growth the lender achieved in this segment last year to their “strategy to follow the biggest developments [and developers] in Lebanon such as Beit Misk, Waterfront City, Sayfco and Zardman.”
BBAC’s Moujaes puts demand for home loans in the context of the economic situation. “Concerning housing loans, it was a relatively good year considering all the challenges that the country is facing.”
“The demand for housing loans is thriving,” agrees Zouein, specifying that the share of housing loans in the Byblos Bank retail portfolio is around 47 percent.
Personal loans
The marketing of personal loans is a business where Lebanese bankers are facing perhaps not so much shifts in customer preferences but a certain price inelasticity of demand. Even though interest rates on personal loans easily reach 16 percent per year when all costs associated with borrowing are taken into account, the bankers say they didn’t notice a drop in the appetite for personal loans.
Customers who are looking to borrow “are not influenced by the [interest] costs as much as they are influenced by whether they can afford the payment,” explains Byblos’ Zouein. Thus, although BDL has mandated all banks to display the full costs of their loans in both their contracts and all communications, such as billboards and magazine advertisements in form of an annual percentage rate, or APR, he has not seen a great impact on inquires. “We have not received any comments from customers on the APR,” he says.
Under BDL’s directive, banks have started representing the cost of loans in a more comparable way than in the early days of Lebanese retail banking when loan conditions were often shown as flat — and thus deceivingly low — interest rates or where offers were directly misleading by advertising ultra-low interest but carrying exorbitant one-time fees or file charges.
According to BLF’s Zirka, the mandate to display the APR was phased in last year and the information is to the benefit of what he calls “good customers,” meaning those folks who have regular incomes and sound financialprofiles. “Good customers are sensitive on interest rates, sensitive on the monthly payments and on the costs related to insurance such as life or fire policies that are required as part of the loan,” he says.
There are other customers, of course, and specifically those for whom “there is a risk in the current economic situation to take out a loan at any cost because they are desperate,” acknowledges BLOM’s Aractingi. But as he sees it, these people are often all too aware that their loans carry a very dear cost. “For many of the people for whom you are probably concerned that they should understand [APR], I can tell you that they might understand it but they don’t care so much about it.”
He claims that the high interest on personal loans is furthermore not too much of a consideration if the borrowed amount is limited to a few thousand dollars. “It depends on the loan. For most of the small loans, what the customer cares about is the availability of credit and not the cost of credit.”
For the bankers, the art is to service demand and make profits. In the experience of BML, the main demand points in 2013 were in personal loans where people needed to borrow for consumption; as Hassan notes, this demand is to be considered with scrutiny. “There are people who will accept any terms but those are the people to whom you should not lend,” he says; as such, BML does not give out loans just on request. “If a person has a good employment record and his salary comes into the bank, then we can lend to them.”
Cautious is my middle name
Across the banks that discussed their retail universe with Executive last month, conservative was a shared word of emphasis.
Despite calculating substantial risk premiums into their personal loans and unsecured credit offerings, and despite confessions of aggressive retail strategies by several lenders, all the bankers we spoke to emphasized their institutions’ high scrutiny of applications from retail borrowers. They also emphasized, without exception, that retail loan defaults in their portfolios are low.
“We, as Bank of Beirut, have a very strict and very conservative lending policy, and we don’t look at booking high sales volumes; we are looking at how the money that we are lending today will come back to us, because this money is not ours, it belongs to the depositors,” explains Aouad.
BBAC’s Moujaes says, “We apply a conservative policy which has proven beneficial for the bank; that is why our ratios of non-settled loans are very low, at one to two percent in the retail portfolio, even though retail requires mass production.”
BLF’s Zirka says, “because we are a conservative bank, our strategy did not change since we launched our retail activity in 2005. Our default portfolio is very small, less than one percent, which is nothing when compared with retail business worldwide where banks have between 7 and 11 percent defaults.”
Lebanese banks are counting on political improvement and the improving consumer confidence going into 2014. Growth of retail lending is a complex proposition however, not only because of the economic climate, but also due to the intense competition in a country where the number of branches is approaching 1,000, and where the number of ATMs has more than doubled in the past ten years, reaching 1,435 in the beginning of 2013 according to BDL’s records.
Smart Branches
New distribution channels are being developed and implemented, including ‘smart branches’ where the customer can interact with an agent by video conference. Bank of Beirut’s Smart Branch in Downtown is the latest example and, according to Aouad, it even facilitates the opening of an account in as little as ten minutes.
Progressing into 2014, retail bankers in this eager environment will be pushing new products, new channels, and plenty of marketing buttons. Most of all, they express optimism that the Lebanese retail banking market is today on a strong path to full maturity even as question marks linger.
“We did not stop developing new retail products in the past year and we expect to have better demand in 2014 after some political indicators are improving,” says Zouein. But he is sober in his expectations, adding, “However, we have to wait. What we felt in the market in January and the first two weeks of February was still very slow work and below the equivalent period in 2013.”
Maha Arayssi Rifai and Mohamad Arayssi were recently selected to join Endeavor’s network at the non-profit’s latest International Selection Panel in Dubai. The brother-sister duo founded the personal-care products company Beesline with siblings Roula Arayssi Chehab and May Arayssi Baba in 1993. Their admission into Endeavor is exciting news for all parties, as they are the first family business to enter the Lebanon network.
“We’re quite excited about it because we would like to take on more family businesses that fit our criteria,” said Tarek Sadi, managing director of Endeavor Lebanon. “I think they represent a lot of what Lebanon has to offer.”
Endeavor is an international nonprofit organization, headquartered in New York, that helps emerging economies develop by offering advice, mentorship and access to markets. Companies that join Endeavor’s network have to go through a rigorous selection process and open themselves up to the organization’s suggestions.
According to Sadi, out of the 350 companies that they looked at in Lebanon over the past three years, only 11 companies were chosen to join the network.
The early days
In 1993, Rifai, a pharmacist, and her brother Arayssi, a chemist, were experimenting from a small room in their family’s house with different beauty creams and concoctions on a Bunsen burner. Rifai carried out research on natural extracts, while her brother worked on stabilizing the formulas. They now hold the titles of vice president and CEO, respectively.
Since the early days, Beesline and the other brands from the Natural company have expanded to regional and international markets: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, the Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Morocco, France and the US. Some of these were ‘white labeling’ — where they made custom products that would appear under another company’s logo.
Their impressive growth was one of the reasons Endeavor selected them to join the network . “Having a production of that caliber in Lebanon selling to the region is not something that we see every day, having that kind of growth,” says Sadi.
They base their products on the science of apitherapy, which uses materials derived from natural bee products. They are certified by the International Standardization Organization and are in the process of obtaining the Good Manufacturing Practice certificate. They do not currently have an organic certificate, which Rifai attributed to the high yearly fees involved in such a certification as well as disagreement within certification bodies over what is organic.
They currently have six chemists working in the research and development lab just on formulas. “We are always trying to get better and safer formulas,” says Rifai.
Charting a new course
Since they entered Endeavor’s network, Beesline has begun to chart a new course in its strategy.
Formerly offering diverse lines of products, many of which were custom-made, they will be closing some operations to hone in on others. Based on recommendations from Endeavor, they will be focusing on their whitening line. “It’s a trend and we have to open new markets in the eastern region such as Pakistan, a Muslim country. Our product is halal. It doesn’t contain any animal-origin products,” says Rifai.
Halal personal care products are less common, since most products use alcohol or animal ingredients where the animal has not been slaughtered in a halal way. “We are free from animal ingredients,” says Rifai, adding as a disclaimer that vegans consider beeswax an animal derivative, but it is still considered halal.
Specializing in products with the most potential will allow them to automate some of their lines of production. They currently have a factory in Bchamoun and will be opening another one with automatic machinery. For this, they took a $4 million bank loan over seven years to purchase the machines.
Sadi foresees that the new factory will increase their workforce in manufacturing by 20 to 30 percent as they expand geographically.
Beesline currently has 180 employees, all based in Lebanon. They’re hoping that they can avoid downsizing even as they automate production. “Maybe they will stay but we will not grow bigger. We will re-assign the jobs,” says Rifai. “We planned to make the company have a lot of employees but it doesn’t give back much money to develop more or to grow bigger.”
They made around $7.5 million in sales in 2013, with profits at $3 million, according to the team.
They will also be closing their retail store in Hamra in the next month, since it is no longer profitable. Rifai cited not enough marketing, “and we have to concentrate on our main business which is the production.”
Another suggestion from Endeavor was to increase marketing efforts. “We faced [this issue] during the international selection panel. Everyone said we have a great product and great business, but we didn’t focus on the marketing.” One advisor who offered his assistance was Roy Haddad, who had previously done a study on marketing in Islamic countries.
Before they joined Endeavor’s network, the company did not attribute time or budget toward marketing. The expansion of their products happened organically through word of mouth.
letting go
Beesline has already recruited some new managers, a sign that they are slowly relinquishing the reigns on the company and opening it up to outside expertise.
They hired a marketing manager who had previously worked for L’Oreal for 12 years along with financial and human resource professionals.
When asked whether the family was taking a step back, Rifai said, “Yes, because managing the business is one thing, and working at developing formulas is another.”
“We had a local panel [hosted by Endeavor], and they told us that if we wanted to go global, we have to forget about the family and to become like an institution,” she said. “We were okay with that and they said you have to be open to all suggestions, have to accept change. We are no longer involved in every small detail.”
Although they are bringing in professionals from outside the company, they are also thinking of bringing in May Arayssi Baba’s son as the new CEO. He holds an MBA from the US and has experience working at Paypal and the Boston Consulting Group.
“In general, it’s about the best person for the job,” says Sadi. “Whether that person is from within or outside family, it doesn’t matter.”
Although they are no longer in charge of every decision, the four founding family members are still the only shareholders on the board. The management team and the CEO still report to them, so they still exert some control over operations. “It’s about layering — keeping control through shareholder structure,” explains Sadi.
They have not yet opened up their equity, but this might be something they will consider further down the road. They already had two propositions — one from Abraaj Capital, who offered them a deal for a slice of equity, and another from a Saudi businessman who works for prominent Saudi family the bin Ladens but who made the deal of his own accord. They declined both offers because they were not happy with the terms.
Working with a family
Family businesses in Lebanon have garnered a reputation for lacking in efficiency and transparency. According to Sadi this is not the case for all.
“It depends on the family in question and how proactive the family is in terms of organizing the business and professionalizing the business. You have great examples in Lebanon of companies that are very professionally run who brought in outside talent. They realize they have to be structured and need to institutionalize the business,” he says.
Sadi claims that the only real difference in approach they have undertaken for dealing with a family business was an attempt to engage the rest of the family co-founders. Only two of the four sibling co-founders were selected as Endeavor entrepreneurs because they were the most active.
With guidance from Endeavor, Beesline’s team hopes to see the company grow rapidly over the next five years. Sadi is also enthusiastic about the company’s potential: “a business like that — with the right strategy, with the right support — I wouldn’t be surprised if in 10 years time they become a $100 million business. They play in a niche market, but it’s a growing niche.”
After almost ten years’ absence, Sky Management, the team behind SKYBAR— Beirut’s first and most iconic rooftop nightclub — has come back with a blast, bringing O1NE to posh Beirut partiers in December of last year.
Admitting a rotation of around 2,500 clubbers every Friday and Saturday night and fully booked — with a long waiting list — until it closes for the summer in May, O1NE seems to have been worth the wait.
“For us, O1NE personifies the ultimate clubbing experience in many ways. O1NE is an architectural landmark, a technological breakthrough and an entertainment haven,” says Abraham Helal, business development and marketing manager for Sky Management.
[pullquote]”The future of clubbing is the visual”[/pullquote]
The original purpose behind launching O1NE was to expand Sky Management’s business by offering a winter venue to complement SKYBAR, which only operates in the summer. “This is the grain of the idea, but O1NE became more than that; we used the experience accumulated in SKYBAR to correct mistakes, perfect the good things and implement everything inside this new space,” says Helal.
A total of $10 million was invested in O1NE, an amount the company claim was the most spent on a club in Lebanon to date. In a period when other clubs are moving abroad, Helal says the investment was partly of the company’s faith in the country. “History has shown us that Beirut always triumphs and while rough times are rough times, there is a prominent Lebanese clubbing society that is our customers,” he says.
O1Ne’s location, on Beirut’s Waterfront, was chosen following the team’s positive experience with nearby SKYBAR — in an area with vast, empty space for parking, minimal neighborhood disturbance and proximity to both the city and its eastern suburbs.
For the club’s design, Sky CEO Chafic El Khazen was inspired by Rome’s Colosseum — which he considers one of the most notorious entertainment venues in history. O1NE’s circular layout, designed by Chafic’s brother and architect Sari El Khazen, is a tribute to the famous landmark.
Driving up to the venue, one is greeted by a larger-than-life graffiti wall — covering the front of the cylindrical club — depicting people dancing and singing. The 3,500 square meter façade is the work of 16 international graffiti artists and is being considered for inclusion in the Guinness World Records as the biggest privately owned graffiti canvas in the world.
The 1,000 square meter interior is 18 meters high — equivalent to a five story building.
Technologically it has both three dimensional projections and 360 degree mapping which allow for a full, unobstructed view of images. “The future of clubbing is working on the visual and complementing the music and atmosphere with something the eye can enjoy, which is motion graphics. Today if a club has no visuals you feel something is missing,” says Helal.
To clubbers, the combination of 3D mapping and 360 degree projections means that they can feel they are dancing the night away in Moulin Rouge one night and underwater the next.
Music wise, O1NE is relying on resident DJs due to the difficulty of attracting international talent amid Lebanon’s tense security situation.
Still, the club is performing better than expected, achieving the same numbers in winter months that they have reached with SKYBAR in the height of summer when tourists are more plentiful. The Sky Management team, on the back of the club’s success in both Beirut and Abu Dhabi, is also planning to take the concept beyond the region to Europe or the United States.
And locally, Sky Management is moving into the food and beverage industry with the management of Liza, a Lebanese restaurant in Paris they’ve licensed to replicate in Beirut, and the renovation of La Crêperie in Jounieh.
As part of Executive’s ‘10 Ways to Save Lebanon’ issue, we asked leading figures from a range of fields to put the case for one major changes for the country. In this article, pensions expert Ibrahim Muhanna argues for better care for elderly people.
The quintessential goal of social security is to protect individuals against any financial risks they face throughout their working life and retirement. While risks of impoverishment in retirement pose special dangers for earners of low and lower-middle wages, the current National Social Security Fund’s End of Service Indemnity (NSSF EOSI) system provides little or no protection against poverty and the costs of deteriorating health throughout retirement.
Over the past four decades, the Lebanese Parliament has witnessed several draft bills aimed at reforming our current system into an old age pension scheme, yet none has reached the voting stage. The majority of these reforms have aimed to combat the numerous drawbacks of the EOSI system, chief of which is the payment of benefits in one installment, rather than in a secure stream of monthly pension payments.
In order to truly mitigate the risks of life in retirement, the average Lebanese citizen is expected to have the foresight, knowledge and financial capacity to plan for old age. This involves starting their own retirement plan during their working years, choosing to use the EOSI sum to purchase a life annuity from an insurance company and making the necessary plans for post-retirement healthcare.
To illustrate the limits of the EOSI system, let us imagine that there is a Lebanese individual who joins the workforce in 1994 aged 24 and retires in 2034 having worked at the same institution for 40 years. Assuming that their monthly salary increased from $240 in 1994 to $580 in 2014 and $1,400 in 2034, their EOSI payout will be roughly equal to $42,000. If this individual chooses to use the EOSI to purchase a life annuity, they would receive around $400 per month throughout retirement. This is barely 30 percent of their monthly income before retirement and, on its own, is insufficient cover for the individual, even just for the health risks after retirement.
All is not lost…
Among the several pension reform plans put forward to the Cabinet, the ‘Muhanna Proposal’ maps the path for a reform of the current EOSI formula into an old age pension system that provides, among other benefits, a guaranteed minimum monthly pension, and allows for the establishment of a new post-retirement healthcare fund.
The costs of this reform are manageable and would be shared by employees, employers and the government, with the migration from the old to the new system designed in such a way as to avoid bureaucratic hiccups that are common in government-run institutions.
The need for pension reform has been acknowledged by each of the cabinets in the past decade. Proposals for a new system are based on extensive actuarial studies of the prevailing situation in Lebanon and offer a practical solution and important step forward. However, the much-needed reform has yet to be realized as each change in government resulted in a shelving and re-examination of the Muhanna Proposal.
This political delay in advancing to a pensions system has put extreme burdens on individuals who have reached retirement age. If it is not implemented soon, this will cause even greater burdens on individual citizens and the state budget, due to, among others, demographic factors and the rapidly expanding cost of health care for retirees.
On the bright side — and there is a bright side — unlike the current NSSF health care system, the NSSF’s EOSI branch has a substantial surplus of funds which is not being utilized. This surplus is neither the property of the government nor the NSSF; it is the property of the thousands of Lebanese whose contributions led to its formation. Put simply, herein lies the answer to the debate on what to do with the current EOSI surplus: partially use it in the creation of a pensions system. It’s time for reform.
For those who believe in a free and independent press in Lebanon, our latest report on media freedom in the country makes depressing reading. In total, in 2013 there were at least two cases a month of journalists being assaulted across the country. These abuses ranged from being shot at in Tripoli, being illegally detained by Hezbollah, Salafists and other non-state actors, to even being beaten up by security forces in Beirut.
Most worryingly, there is a growing silence following such cases, with impunity for the perpetrators all too common. Virtually none of these abuses have been prosecuted, despite seemingly unequivocal evidence in some cases. Simply put, the government is not doing enough to protect these most basic rights.
In the long run, what is needed to protect freedom of speech are changes to the country’s laws. Foremost among these is the passing of the 2009 draft law on freedom of information. This law, debated by parliament in 2012 but never passed, would give journalists new protections to question those in authority.
The second legal change that is needed is the decriminalization of libel, slander and defamation. While it is right that people should be held accountable for what they publish, these are matters that should be dealt with in a civil court. No one should ever face going to jail as this threat pushes reporters into not asking the toughest questions.
Judicial hope
Yet if we are honest, these legal changes do not look forthcoming. Lebanon’s politicians have a pretty woeful record of passing legislation at the best of times. Right now we have a parliament that last summer (arguably unconstitutionally) extended its own mandate by 17 months. Since doing so, they have passed precisely zero legislation. Simply put, the chances of getting the changes we need right now are negligible.
With the new government due to disband in only a couple of months, in the short-term the judicial system is our only fully functioning institution. As such, it is our best hope of better protecting the values we hold dear. Parts of that system have shown themselves open to defending freedom of expression. In the 1999 Marcel Khalife case, for example, the judge ruled in favor of the artist who had been sued by Dar al-Fatwa for putting a Quranic verse to music. The ruling set a major precedent for the protection of cultural expression.
This and other examples show that there is clearly a possibility that the judiciary will back liberal values. The most recent ruling by judge Najj Al-Dahdah in a LGBT case is another sign that things can move in the right direction through the judiciary.
Yet there are in fact two areas of the judiciary that deal with media freedom in Lebanon. The main judicial system, on the one hand, which would rule on cases of physical abuses, unlawful detention and death threats, and, on the other hand, the Publications Court, which deals with cases against media publications (including online) covering issues of libel, slander and defamation.
This duel system can sometimes end up with bizarre paradoxes. Al Akhbar journalist Mohammed Nazzal, for example, exposed clear corruption in the judiciary – leading directly to a judge being demoted. Yet the Publications Court declared he had brought the judiciary into disrepute, and therefore fined him. This is clearly illogical – we need protection for those exposing injustice in any form.
Taking the initiative
Going forward, therefore, it is no longer enough to merely defend journalists that are unjustly beaten up, detained or sued. We must empower those that have their rights abused – initiating action and giving them the legal support and capacity to take their cases to court. To that end, SKeyes has launched a strategic litigation program and invites journalists subjected to violations to come forward so that, with our support, they can seek justice through all available legal means.
By putting these cases directly in front of the judiciary, we increase the pressure on judges to protect freedom of speech. Key cases could be the attacks on journalists from New TV in downtown Beirut on November 26, 2013 or the attacks on bloggers and civic activists demonstrating in June 2013 against the postponement of parliamentary elections. The evidence against those that attacked them appears so compelling – there is huge amounts of video footage of the events – that if and when it eventually comes to trial, the right decision is crucial.
As part of Executive’s ‘10 Ways to Save Lebanon’ issue, we asked leading figures from a range of fields to put the case for one major changes for the country. In this article, former International Labor Organization advisor Zafiris Tzannatos discusses changes to the country’s job market.
At face value, Lebanon is probably the top economic and employment performer in the Arab region. Globally, it is an upper-middle-income country, one notch below the group of high-income economies. Within the Arab region, it has the highest per capita income among non oil-producing countries. It has the lowest unemployment rate — about 9 percent — in a region with an average of nearly 14 percent. This excludes the Gulf Cooperation Council, where unemployment is almost zero by virtue of oil wealth and the government being an employer of last resort. Moreover, the Lebanese education system produces graduates who can find jobs in the most technologically advanced high-income economies.
Yet the Lebanese labor minister faces daunting challenges, since the above picture masks deep structural economic deficiencies and weaknesses in labor market governance. Meeting these challenges will require radical, rather than reformative policies at the macro level, which are beyond the ministry’s mandate. And within the labor market, Lebanon is in need of a national labor policy.
The task ahead
Consider unemployment. It is not low because the economy creates too many jobs. On the contrary, domestic employment has been increasing by only 5,000 jobs a year, with almost 20,000 new entrants into the labor market. And the latter figure would be far higher if more women were joining the workforce. Now consider employment. Are those 5,000 newly-created jobs what the young and dynamic Lebanese are aspiring to? The answer is no. Most jobs are in low value or low productivity sectors that offer low wages. For its level of development, Lebanon has an exceptionally high share of small and micro-enterprises, self-employment and family work characterized by a high degree of informality. Even if wages in the formal sector were adequate to live on in the short term, they cannot compensate for the expensive investments families make in education.
As such, market failures that saddle the competitiveness of the private sector need to be addressed. Unfortunately, they have been met only by government failures, spanning from ineffective regulations and licensing procedures to a lack of infrastructure and a segmented education system. The latter produces the best learning outcomes for some students while leaving many behind — one in four Lebanese does not complete secondary education.
When the economy does not create decent jobs, employment is unstable, there is no unemployment insurance and a lifetime of work does not end in a pension, your choice is limited to staying out of work — as many women do — or emigrating — as many men do. Lebanon has both the highest emigration rate and the highest skilled emigration rate among Arab countries, and one of the highest across the globe.
The Ministry of Labor cannot change the big picture. This is a giant task for the Cabinet, which faces the same constraints as its predecessors, in terms of the accumulated public debt, the most recent influx of refugees, the perennially unstable regional geopolitics and fragile internal politics. However, with the aim of creating greater and more fulfilling employment, a national labor policy can be developed through the creation of a level playing field for the private sector, a reduction of red tape and a boost to investor confidence. Additionally, an increase in the transparency, effectiveness and accountability of the state in the sphere of public goods — from electricity and broader infrastructure to education and social protection — is needed to produce the required outcome.
However, for the Ministry of Labor to be able to play an effective role in the labor market, it would need to upgrade its statistical, analytical, policy, administrative, management and planning capabilities. Moreover, the ministry is a key player in improving the dialogue among employers and workers. In this respect, reviving the role of the Economic and Social Council is a low hanging fruit that can, in turn, contribute to the development of the national labor policy.
Areas of focus, some of which have been pending parliamentary approval for years, include the revision of the archaic 1946 Labor Code, the introduction of pensions for the private sector and a reconsideration of the available employment services (the mandate of the National Employment Office). Furthermore, improvements in health and safety in the workplace, the development of an accurate price index to reduce tensions in wage negotiations, a reduction in child labor and more effective labor inspections — including the case of the thousands of domestic workers — are equally vital.
Last month, members of the national business community faced the tricky question of what to wear for the festive opening of a gas station. Total Liban, the Lebanese unit of French oil multinational Total, put the question on the agenda by inaugurating, with speeches and circumstance, a re-developed flagship station on one of Beirut’s main traffic arteries, the six-lane urban highway connecting Downtown Beirut to Dora.
Total Liban’s senior management told Executive on the sidelines of the opening party that the company achieves a daily sales volume of 20,000 liters at the outlet, dubbed Medawar Station after the surrounding neighborhood. The station generates this volume from an average of 1,500 customers a day, but Total aims to boost the station’s fuel throughput by 30 percent based on the location’s full redevelopment into a station that features eight gas pumps, an automated car wash, a modern automotive servicing area, an ATM and a convenience store with two, albeit a bit tight, aisles.
According to a press statement, the location also has a Liban Post antenna, indubitably to the delight of people who know how to use the device.
The invited guests at the opening were not only pampered with canapés and entertainment but were treated to a service station that aims to live up to a standard that is common in developed markets but still far from ubiquitous in Lebanon’s national network of gas stations.
In this context, the Medawar station opening was as much aimed at catching the attention of the motoring customer base as it was promoting the idea of a modern gas station and conveying Total’s commitment to the internal target groups of auto-industry members, distribution partners and station operators, says Reina Cullinan, Total Liban’s commercial director.
“We are striving to project a constant and uniform image throughout the market. We would like the customer to have the same experience whether they come to a Total-owned and operated service station or a dealer-owned and operated service station,” she tells Executive in a separate interview about the company’s strategy. Cullinan emphasizes the alignment of Total Liban not only with the new global branding of the multinational group, but also with the group’s worldwide-enforced policies on safety and product quality, among other standards.
Staying aggressive
According to Cullinan, Total Liban has a network of 180 branded stations. The majority of stations are dealer-owned and operated under contract while the company owns and operates 30 to 35 stations directly. In terms of fuel volume sold, Total Liban accounts for nearly 20 percent of the gasoline pumped into Lebanese vehicles, Cullinan claims, making the company the volume leader in the market.
Other large gasoline distributors and station operators include Medco, Wardieh and United, each brand comprising upward of 180 stations. Some of these networks have historic affiliations with multinationals and maintain product relations with international brands such as Caltex and Mobil, but Total Liban is the only company in Lebanon’s retail fuel sector that is fully owned by an international parent and reports to a global corporate head office.
This means that Total Liban’s results are integrated into the annual reports of the group; however, how much the activity here contributes to Total’s global bottom line is not something that Cullinan would disclose. She does reveal that Total Liban felt the impact of the depressed economy in that the size of the average customer transaction was down, saying, “we did not have negative growth in 2013 despite the situation but we did feel the impact. The growth that we saw was not as good as we would have liked it to be.”
She concedes that the growth in turnover that Total Liban achieved in 2013 was influenced by factors such as network expansion and the company’s investments to migrate 30 stations to its new global brand identity. Without those factors, she says, the year would have been “very flat.”
After 18 months in Lebanon, the native South African is nonetheless positive about the country and Total’s esteem in the market. “There are not a lot of exciting things happening in Lebanon because of the situation, but we — as Total — remain very positive about the country. We have always been here and been committed, and we want to stay committed. Our investment budgets, whose numbers we are not allowed to disclose, have not been cut back and in fact we have an aggressive investment strategy,” she says.
The strategy involves, on one hand, continued upgrades of the network by migrating another 40 stations to the new brand colors before the end of the year, along with the rollout of more large stations along major traffic arteries. Three such projects are under implementation and four more are planned for delivery in 2014.
The expansion plans and the investments they represent are not peanuts by local standards. To begin with, the acquisition of land for a station is difficult, due to the scarcity of suitable properties, and those that are available carry a high price tag. Once a property is acquired, a major station can require a further investment of between $1 million and $2 million, Cullinan explains. “Excluding the cost of land, $1.5 million is not a lot of money to pay for a flagship-size station.”
The second pillar of Total Liban’s growth strategy is diversification from pure gas sales into more retail and customer services, such as money transfer, banking services and food offerings. The convenience stores will stock more high-margin items and, for the planned expansion into roadside restaurants, the company has begun negotiations with potential partner companies that could implement family-oriented eateries or bistros at Total Liban stations, perhaps even including play areas for children.
According to Cullinan, such concepts have become possible thanks to recent legal changes allowing food preparation on commercial sites. Overall, Total Liban aims to increase the share of non-fuel items in the company’s revenue to 25 percent from the current 10 percent.
Playing a peculiar market
The low contribution of non-fuel-related products and services in the revenue streams of gas station operators is among the several peculiarities that characterize the fuel distribution industry in Lebanon. More significant discrepancies vis-à-vis global best practices relate to the fact that Lebanon has highly individualized traffic and a high number of vehicles per capita when compared with any other small country in the upper-middle income group of emerging economies.
In the economy of gas station operators and fuel distributors, this is reflected in the market presence of many stations that might be neither economically viable nor environmentally acceptable in more developed countries.
According to unofficial numbers from members of the fuel sector, Lebanon’s national fuel distribution network includes around 3,200 stations of which only about 2,200 operate under the requisite government license. Of these 2,200 legally run stations, around 2,000 are branded, estimate officials in the Association of Petroleum Importing Companies (APIC).
While the major operators and APIC itself are anything but beacons of financial transparency, it is entertaining to note that Lebanon has, by international comparison, a very high number of gas stations by pretty much any parameter one chooses.
For example, the number of all Lebanese stations (licensed and unlicensed) at 3,200 is 30 percent below South Africa, a country that also regulates its oil wholesale margins and controls pump prices at its 4,600 stations according to the South Africa Petroleum Industry Association. However, South Africa is about 20 times larger in terms of population. In terms of territorial dimensions, South Africa is roughly 120 times the size of Lebanon, which makes the Lebanese network extravagantly dense in comparison.
Using a European country for comparison that is only about eight times Lebanon’s size and while just taking licensed gas stations into account, Lebanon’s 2,200 rank not far below Austria’s 2,500. But although Austria has a higher density of gas stations per capita than France and Germany, each Austrian station has a theoretical clientele of 3,400 inhabitants. The hypothetical average operator of a licensed Lebanese service station by contrast has to make his profits on the basis of a ratio of only 2,000 inhabitants per station.
Finally, when correlating the number of stations to the length of the national road network, the Lebanese landscape mathematically spots one gas station every three road kilometers, while a South African motorist has to drive 78 and an Austrian 49 kilometers, if they happen not to like the colors of the nearest fuel vendor.
In other words, Lebanon has a higher density of gas stations than bank branches and it seems a daring feat, at least in mathematical terms, to run out of gas because of want of a pump nearby (not having a working gas gauge in the car or days of facing a supply shortage are different matters). Operators have to be very creative and hard working to succeed in a field crowded with many competitors and no opportunity for price differentiation, due to the government control of pump prices. Either that, or they have to dodge all sorts of common sense business principles, not to mention almost every operational standard that is enforced in developed economies.
Given the market’s constraints it is no wonder that Cullinan proclaims, “I am sometimes surprised when I see the deals that we are doing and deals that we have throughout the country, where volumes are very minimal — they are little, little stations.”
Being profitable and safe
Total Liban sees the threshold for a station in its network to make economic sense at a monthly sales volume of at least 300,000 liters. But as Cullinan puts it, “we are working with what we have” in the network. She explains the company’s ongoing partnerships with small operators, with the policy of being present in every corner of Lebanon. She has yet to visit several of these in person because of security-related restrictions that Total, as a multinational, places on the movement of its international employees in Lebanon.
In the area of security and compliance with group safety standards, Total Liban maintains that the trucks in its third-party owned delivery fleet comply with European standards. It also conducts annual maritime emergency drills to be prepared for the possibility of an oil spill from a vessel during delivery or at its fuel importation terminal.
Across its network of branded stations, the company has a training program for pump attendees and uses independent monitoring of product quality to be sure that only certified and compliant fuels are disbursed at the pumps. At the opening of Medawar Station, visitors could step into the van with the test laboratory that is used to monitor fuel quality at all Total Liban stations.
Operational improvements of its new stations include energy-saving lighting and water-saving car washes. But more important for environmental safety are the collectors in the ground designed to capture spills of gasoline, contaminated water and lubricants all around the station. “We collect all contaminated residue at the oil change and car wash and dispose of it responsibly. This is something that the Lebanese market as a whole may not be sensitized to but it is something that Total is very conscious about,” Cullinan explains.
When asked about the details of how the company disposes of contaminated motor oils, she says that Total Liban has an agreement with a partner, “whose name we are not allowed to mention,” and adds that this partner company uses the contaminated lubricants “in their equipment, in burners and that kind of stuff.”
While it seems doubtful that an environmental watchdog or a supervisor in a country with stringent waste treatment standards would be satisfied with incineration of contaminated oils by an unnamed industrial company as a bona fide disposal method, Cullinan makes a point in saying that Lebanon’s poor waste treatment infrastructure poses a problem and that dumping of such wastes in a landfill is not an acceptable solution. “We are trying with the very limited infrastructure in Lebanon to play our role as best as we can,” she says, and concedes, “oil companies will never be green.”
As to the question of what to wear for a gas station launch party, fashion experts on site at the opening of Medawar Station recommended casual or smart casual. Male attires at the event were dominated by suits and ties chosen to mesh with a great gas station image. But from an operational perspective, the warm reds worn as uniforms by Total Liban’s pump attendants were clearly the natural fit to both environment and occasion.
FFA Private Bank will present local and regional investors an opportunity to invest in the Lebanese food and beverage (F&B) industry this Thursday. Lebanese restaurant chain Semsom is seeking to raise $6 million in equity financing for the new unit, Semsom US, that will drive the chain’s expansion into the United States. The bank says it already has a quarter of their target pledged from investors, but March 13 marks the start of their formal fundraising.
Semsom US will be based in the British Crown dependency of Jersey. The company is planning on raising up to 49 percent of equity in a first round of $4 million by selling common stock shares of Semsom US, with the remainder owned by umbrella holding Treats, which also owns Green Falafel and the Lebanese franchise of Dunkin Donuts. Treats, whose shareholder base consists of Christine Assouad Sfeir, the CEO of all three restaurant chains, and her family, will keep 51 percent equity against a cash injection and in-kind contribution that will cover the cost of franchising in the US territory, the franchising fees for each store, resources and expertise.
Semsom is anticipating opening at least 70 new restaurants by 2020 and twice that in the best-case scenario. Expansion is to be both through company-operated stores and franchised outlets, numbering 20 and 50 respectively in their conservative estimate.
Fundraising from investors is going to be split into two rounds. The first-round target is for $4 million with expectation to close this round by mid-April. Under the financing plan, the investment banking department of FFA Private Bank will handle this round and follow it up with a second round seeking to raise at least another $2 million by 2016.
The deal projects an internal rate of return (IRR) of 31 percent in a conservative scenario given an exit by year seven, and a base-case IRR of 42 percent. Acccording to its fundraising material, the venture expects a positive cash flow by 2016, all of which will be re-invested in the company to drive growth. Investors who invest in the first phase will get priority right to take part in phase two, FFA Private Bank says. They are looking for ticket sizes ranging from $100,000 to $1 million.
Land of opportunity
The plan for Semsom US is to open their first restaurant by the end of 2014. The parent company has seen regional growth since it opened its first location in 2008 in Lebanon. Under the management of Treats, the restaurant brand today operates two locations in Lebanon, two in Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah and one in Kuwait. They are planning to open in one in Oman, two in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh and a third in Jeddah, and one in the UAE by the end of 2014.
According to Julien Khabbaz, senior manager and head of investment banking at FFA Private Bank, they doubled their projections for profitability in the GCC to a 35 percent EBITDA ratio (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization).
Carine Assouad, a shareholder in Treats and the designated managing director of Semsom US, says the company has been attracted to the US market because of its size and its lack of a single dominant Lebanese food chain. Citing the food and beverage (F&B) industry’s market value of $660 billion per year, Assouad adds that Semsom is initially targeting 3 of the 10 cities that they have identified as most lucrative for F&B: New York, Boston, and Washington.
The makers of Semsom have worked for the past six months to adapt their company to consumer trends in the US market. According to Assouad, “ethnic cuisine” is booming in America – where 63 percent of Americans order it more than once a week. They are also witnessing a growing appetite for “fast casual” style food in the states: a cross between dine-in and fast food, which offers premium food and fast service. They are seeking to tap into both of these trends.
FFA is planning on staying on board long term once the funding is closed. They will take a board seat in the company to represent and protect the investors as one block. According to FFA’s Khabbaz the bank has prior experience in fundraising for F&B projects in Africa and have worked with clients in the region, but their experience in fundraising for projects in the US is limited to the film industry.