Executive Magazine

Death from above

by Sam Tarling October 7, 2012

written by Sam Tarling

Everywhere we go there is fighting and shelling. where can we go?… the street is not safe, the house is not safe. nowhere is safe.” a refugee from homes, now in aleppo, finds herself back in danger as government forces hit back at rebel advances into the city, pounding neighborhoods with artillery, rockets, planes and helicopters. circling above the city with impunity, the air force is unleashing some of the most devastating firepower seen so far in Syria’s increasingly bloody civil war.

Insert: A man surveys the result of an airstrike in the neighborhood of Tariq Al Bab

On a bad day, the sheer volume of casualties causes hospitals to run out of space for the dead. Here, the body of a civilian who was killed by a sniper is left on the floor as doctors treat the wounded patients at the Dar Al Shifa hospital in the Tariq Al Bab neighborhood of Aleppo

2. Residents load the body of a woman killed in an airstrike into a van as a government warplane circles overhead. In the background Free Syrian Army fighters fire futilely at the aircraft

3. The body of a child is carried from the rubble of a destroyed building after an aerial bombardment in Aleppo’s Hayderieh neighborhood

4. A man reacts after returning to the site where his aunt, his uncle and five nieces and nephews died when six houses were destroyed by an airstrike

5. Smoke rises asa a rocket explodes on the eastern outskirts of Aleppo

6. Bakeries, which attract large crowds of customers due to a shortage of bread, have been targeted by air strikes numerous times

7. A Syrian air force jet drops a bomb on Aleppo. Moving with impunity, the jets can strike the city, at any time, with devastating effects

8. Vegetables are still for sale but cost four to five times more than last season’s prices

9. A boy walks among the rubble of six ruined houses after a single bomb, possibly a barrel packed full of explosives, was dropped on the neighborhood of Tariq al Bab. Eleven were killed, seven were from the same family

10. Men search through the rubble on the fourth floor of a five-storey apartment building that was hit by an airstrike in the neighborhood of Tariq Al Bab

October 7, 2012 0 comments

Feature

Syria’s workhorse dies with ALEPPO

by Zak Brophy October 7, 2012

written by Zak Brophy

A dozen men stand in silence watching as others brick up the shattered storefront of an industrial hardware shop. A mortar strike blew apart its façade only hours ago in this northeastern section of Aleppo, and three hundred meters down the street fighting continues to rage between government forces and opposition fighters of the Free Syrian Army. No words are shared between the disgruntled merchants and a pair of rebel fighters standing nearby — there is clearly little love lost.

The wrecked shop is in a district called Aaqoora, in the middle of what used to be one of the city’s thriving industrial quarters. Now the hundreds, if not thousands, of small and medium sized factories here are empty. “Not a single one of the businesses in this area is working now… none,” snaps one of the bystanders.

Further down the block, a door swings ajar on a textiles factory. Thread still lies taut across the looms and reels of cloth are stacked in the corner of the abandoned room, now strewn with broken glass and smashed plaster. The factory feels suspended in time until a thunderous explosion bellows out nearby — another small part of Aleppo laid to waste.

Until the holy month of Ramadan began in late July, Aleppo and its more than 2 million inhabitants had, for the most part, been insulated from the violence wracking the country elsewhere. However, when the battle shifted mid-summer from the surrounding countryside into the heart of the city, which is Syria’s industrial and economic workhorse, it unleashed a torrent of destruction that continues unabated.

A plethora of combat units fighting under the banner of the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA) have taken control of more than half of the urban area, but the virtually unchallenged air and artillery power of the government’s forces allows them to launch attacks into every corner of Aleppo and the surrounding countryside. The bombardments from above are often indiscriminate and devastating. Whole districts lie abandoned with thousands of shops, businesses and homes shuttered, their owners and residents having fled.

Flight from havoc

“People are taking their whole operations to other countries,” says Syrian businessman Abdul Karim-Sayyed. “We can say there is an industrial migration going on now from Syria to Iraq or Egypt or Turkey or elsewhere. The majority are going to Egypt.”

Sitting in his office in Bourj Hammoud on the outskirts of Beirut, the Lebanese capital, he laments the demise of his home. Aleppo used to employ as much as 40 percent of Syria’s industrial workforce, with manufacturing alone accounting for 150,000 jobs; the city produced 35 percent of all the country’s non-oil exports, and in sub sectors such as textiles and pharmaceuticals, this share rose to some 70 percent, according to Madinatuna, (the municipal program also know as the Aleppo City Development Strategy). All this has now ground to a violent halt.

Karim-Sayyed is from the generation of businessmen who successfully emerged from Syria’s first round of economic liberalization under former President Hafez al-Assad, which began in the early 1990s, when the government started to encourage private investment and the export of Syrian products by private enterprises. Karim-Sayyed’s portfolio of companies was involved in such things as clothing, textiles and furniture exports, haulage and a private bus company in Aleppo. In recent months, however, along with most of Aleppo’s industrialists, he has extricated what capital he can from the violent quagmire.

In the past, the Syrian regime kept a lid on the levels of capital individuals and businesses could transfer outside the nation. While there have always been circuitous routes around these restrictions, Karim-Sayyed argues that in the current state of lawlessness whatever barriers there were simply no longer apply.

“There are many ways to get your money out of Syria,” he says. “The border with Turkey is wide open — you take your money there without anyone asking any questions. There are no laws anymore.”

Ransom as financing

Back in Aleppo, the absence of law pervading the city has given rise to widespread kidnapping, extortion and theft targeting Aleppo’s middle and upper classes and their businesses, spurring many to flee to safer climates. While fighters and leaders within the FSA concede this occurs, they often contend that it is beyond their control.

Abdul Fader is a soft-spoken and well-educated man with an affable and polite disposition. He used to work as an Islamic scholar for Aleppo’s Department of Islamic Jurisdiction but now commands some 150 rebel fighters in the city. Fader’s transition from religious scholar to military leader started in August 2011, through leading operations to assassinate shabiha — a term used to describe the paramilitary supporters of the regime. “Our weapon of choice was the silencer,” he calmly reveals.

When elements of the opposition started preparing to move the armed conflict from the Aleppo countryside into the city, Fader says the shabiha were increasingly targeted for ransom kidnappings to fund the procurement of weapons and vehicles. Though the price tag varied due to the “economic condition” of the hostage, the standard rate was anywhere between $5,000 and $20,000. “I believe that in the early days around 50 percent of the funding for the armed uprising came from kidnapping those mercenaries,” says Fader. He claims his men would covertly gather evidence on every potential target for him to review, and that he called off operations against roughly half the cases brought before him on the basis that he could not justify the action under Islamic law.

Other armed groups are less concerned with determining whether potential kidnapping victims are shabiha or not. The title ‘FSA’ suggests one united fighting force, but the reality is the opposition is comprised of a wide variety of different outfits, including armed criminal gangs who are indulging in kidnapping and extortion for blatant monetary gain.

Industrial amputation

Perched on the northeastern high ground overlooking Aleppo is the Sheikh Najjar Industrial Park. As of early 2011, the Syrian Arab News Agency was reporting that the park had accumulated $3.4 billion worth of investments, housed 75 foreign companies and provided employment for some 35,500 people. Only months ago a flourishing hub for Syrian textiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and agro-foods, it is now a 44-square-kilometer ghost town. There is no traffic, and it seems the only people around are the guards at the gates of the factories, on the lookout for potential looters or refugees looking for a safe place to squat.

One of the few plants operating, although at a significantly reduced capacity, is the Sultan Carpet Company. A floor manager at the plant, who refuses to give his name, says less than 10 percent of the industrial city is still in operation. Within minutes of beginning to speak, however, a car full of stern-faced men in suits arrives and makes it clear that neither the questions, nor Executive’s escort of two armed guides in battle fatigues, are welcome. The gates to the factory close and the workers are ushered back inside.

While many of Aleppo’s businessmen and industrialists have either fled the country or kept a cold and hostile distance to the armed uprising, some have thrown their lot in with the revolution. Mustapha Chebaan is a large and portly man who wears an army waistcoat over his brown jalibiyeh while hosting guests at the barracks where he leads a brigade of around 200 FSA fighters. The camouflage attire and newly adopted military role veil his previous identity as a major business figure in Aleppo and a member of the city’s chamber of commerce; founded in 1885 it is one of the oldest chambers of commerce in the Middle East and Arab world.

“When they started to attack the peaceful demonstrations we left the chamber of commerce and our businesses to join the ranks of the FSA to support our people in Deraa and Homs and now in Aleppo,” he says. Chebaan made his money by building a contracting company and importing household appliances from China, and he talks of how regime loyalists and shabiha targeted him and other like-minded businessmen with sabotage, kidnappings of family members and sometimes assassinations for empathizing with the anti-regime protestors. Once Chebaan closed his business, his attention and money was turned toward the financing and arming of the rebels.

His brigade’s barracks is replete with examples of the involuntary redistribution of wealth occurring in Aleppo; the building itself used to house military officers Chebaan accuses of leading the sabotage against him and other businessmen. While it is not possible for his fighters to buy new SIM cards for their mobile phones — as they need to be officially registered — rebels still attain them from kidnapped or killed regime loyalists and soldiers. Even some of the cars Chebaan’s fighters use have been “liberated” from their foes.

Fuel’s dirty business

Running those cars however, has become an expensive and cumbersome ordeal. There are no functioning petrol stations in the parts of Aleppo that the rebels hold or in any of the countryside to the north under their control. “The distribution at petrol stations stopped around a year ago now,” says petrol dealer Abu Farouq. “The owners were kidnapped and held to ransom. They paid up, were released and after that they left.”

Now street vendors sell fuel full of impurities from 120 liter barrels, and the unsteady supply causes prices to fluctuate between $2 to $4 per liter; it used to be less than $1. The dirty petrol also wreaks havoc on car engines, causing frequent stalling and forcing drivers to limit their speed, which can be of critical importance to fighters in the heat of battle. “Damn this car,” curses an FSA fighter en route to the front line as his vehicle jolts to a stop once again. “I’d be better off trying to escape on a donkey.”

Ali Aleto, a 26-year-old FSA fighter, was among the many men from his village to the north of Aleppo who joined the armed opposition in the city. Shrapnel has shredded his back and the wounds are still raw. Aleto’s injuries are a direct result of the fight for fuel that the rebels are waging. In an audacious FSA operation in early August, rebel fighters attacked a convoy of 17 government trucks near the Aleppo International Airport, each carrying up to 40,000 liters of diesel. Aleto was in the cab of one of the stolen tankers when it was struck by a rocket. “It was a close shave for sure, but we made off with six trucks in the end,” he says.

The Bedouin tribes from the east of Syria ensure a regular flow of fuel into the areas under FSA control. “Neither the government nor the FSA controls the clans. They are more Iraqi than they are Syrian,” explains Abou Farouq. The Bedouin buy the fuel from areas under government control, such as Al Raqqa in central Syria, and then transport it to Sfeera, east of Aleppo, from where it is distributed to Aleppo and the FSA-controlled countryside.

“Everyone involved benefits from this trade. Everyone gets around five Syrian pounds per liter, which amounts to around $6 per barrel,” explains Abou Farouq before adding with an ironic smirk, “Even the regime wants to sell it so they can earn money to buy weapons to use against us. It is business after all.”

A withering harvest

The fluctuating availability of fuel and its poor quality are felt heavily in the agricultural districts of Aleppo’s countryside to the north. Standing in his 10-hectare farmstead, Abu Beraa shakes his head as he holds out several small and shriveled potatoes. “I can’t sell these. They should be five times bigger. They will go to waste along with so much more of this crop,” he complains.

The reason for Abu Beraa’s failing crop is his inability to pay for the inflated fuel, fertilizer and labor costs. Fertilizer has risen approximately five-fold over the past two years, fuel has at least doubled this past year and the day rate of laborers is more than twice as much as it was last season. Pointing to one of the men pulling emaciated potatoes from the ground, Abu Beraa says, “One of these workers will work a month now just to be able to bring a canister of gas to his house. They now cost 5,000 Syrian pounds (SYP), and they used to be 410 SYP. That is an increase of more than tenfold.”

Abu Beraa is not alone with his grievances. “I am scared of a real food crisis in the country this coming winter,” frets agricultural engineer Abu Abdullah, speaking in the Aleppo countryside. The spiraling costs are paralyzing agricultural production, which is compounded by the dangers involved in transporting the goods to market. “There used to be a large trade between us and our neighbors such as Turkey and Iraq, and considerable integration of the markets within Syria but this has all but been cut because of the dangers and costs of transportation,” explains Abu Abdullah. Dry credit markets are further hobbling agricultural producers. Normally, they would take out a loan at the beginning of each season to cover expenses, and pay off this debt after they sold their harvest. This year, however, with the chronic lack of security and a dearth of confidence in the Syrian pound, lenders are sitting tight on their money. “There is fear of a collapse so no one will lend anymore,” explains Abu Abdullah. “Now people only work in hard cash.” The woes of the countryside are being passed down the supply chain to fruit and vegetable vendors on the streets of Aleppo — among the few traders still in business besides the corner stalls selling cigarettes and fuel dealers with their roadside barrels.

“Hardly any vegetables are entering into the city,” says a vegetable seller whose shop sits only yards from a recent rocket strike that leveled a family home. “Tomatoes have reached 25 SYP; they used to be 10 SYP, even 5 SYP. The same with potatoes, they used to be seven and now they too are around 25 SYP. People can’t afford these prices.”

Shortages and empty shelves

In the neighboring district of Tariq El Bab, dozens of people stand in a queue at the local bakery for bread that is three to four times more expensive than before the uprising came to Aleppo. No one looks comfortable and eyes regularly flicker to the sky.

“We come and stand here every day for our bread but we are scared of the planes,” says an elderly man as he waits in line. “They have targeted the bread queues before and only the other day 11 people were killed in such a strike.”

Many other essentials are also running short. In a small village several kilometers north of Aleppo a pharmacist leans on the counter with the shelves behind him all but empty, spare a few packets of the most basic of medicines. A customer walks in asking for tablets for diarrhea and even before he finishes his sentence the pharmacist awkwardly grimaces and apologizes. “The whole trade has pretty much disappeared,” he says. “We see shortages for a number of reasons; the factories have stopped producing, the warehouses have run dry, pharmacies have been hit and transportation is very dangerous.”

Not only has the stock dried up but the government support for medication for the poor has also evaporated. In the summer months diarrhea and nausea are the most common ailments but treatments are running thin. “There used to be support for people in need or the poor from the government, so we could give medications for free to people who really needed it,” says the pharmacist. “Unfortunately now there is no support so we can’t help people who are poor and destitute. They have to go without. Now it is the opposite. It is me that needs the support.”

A dying city

Streets that were once bustling arteries for commerce — trade that sustained the livelihood and wellbeing of hundreds of thousands of Syrian families — are now emptied by fear or choked in rubble. Aleppo’s main tourist attraction, the citadel in the center of the old city, is a sniper’s den for regime forces. The boom of artillery has replaced the banter of marketplaces. The city shakes from the warplanes’ rain of death.

In place of normal life there is war, which reaches far behind the front lines and impacts most painfully the noncombatants — those who have fired no bullets and yet pay for this innocence with the torn fabric of their lives.

October 7, 2012 0 comments

Comment

A cash cow of suffering

by Peter Speetjens October 7, 2012

written by Peter Speetjens

"There are so many foreigners here — the whole world loves us,” said Um Ali, as she and her son shuffled through the endless sands of Zaatari Camp, the tent city in northern Jordan, which by mid-September was home to some 31,000 Syrian refugees and, indeed, an impressive contingent of, mainly foreign, aid workers.

Past the entrance of the gated camp, guarded by the Jordanian Army, there is first of all a separate, smaller tent city for some 15 humanitarian organizations. Foreign media regularly pass by, especially so when Angelina Jolie visited the camp on September 11. Dozens of news organizations were present to catch a glimpse of the American movie star and special envoy to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

Um Ali had never heard of Jolie. The 45-year-old mother of five had fled Deraa a few days earlier, following heavy air raids. Free Syrian Army fighters had helped her cross the border, which is only a 15-minute-walk away from Deraa. Um Ali needed a doctor. Nothing serious. Her son had an irritated eye. “It’s the sand,” Um Ali said. “There is sand everywhere.”

Not surprisingly, as Camp Zaatari is situated in a desert some 12 kilometers west of the northern Jordanian city of Mafraq. The first tents set up in July were once white, but today have a dusty brown tan, on which the UN-logo is barely visible. In addition to sand, refugees complained about scorpions, snakes, the lack of electricity and, most importantly, the fact that no one is allowed to leave or enter the camp without government permission.

In August, a march protesting the camp’s conditions ended in a violent clash with Jordanian police. Dozens of people were injured and arrested, after which Fayez Tarawneh, Jordan’s fourth royally-appointed Prime Minister in 18 months, threatened to send all troublemakers back to Syria.

That never occurred and did not shy Jordanian officials away from calling for no less than $700 million in foreign aid in a press conference with Miss Jolie. “Jordan has become one of the victims of the Syrian crisis,” said Samih Maaytah, Jordan’s Minister of Information and Communication. “The world needs to open its pockets and provide support for the reception of more Syrian refugees.”

Now, Jordan is of course a poor country with few natural resources. Still, the amount of $700 million seems a lot, knowing most Syrian refugees in Jordan (150,000 by some estimates) cope with little or no official help. Some aid workers argued that Camp Zaatari may swell to some 100,000 inhabitants by year’s end, yet one UNICEF official said: “Honestly, no one knows how many people may or may not come.”

And even if so, the wellbeing of the camp’s 31,000 inhabitants is hardly the sole responsibility of the Jordanian authorities. In terms of medical aid, for example, the French Army has a field hospital in the camp with specialized units for vaccinations, gynecology and psychology. Next to it, the Moroccan Army offers exactly the same and next to them there is a smaller Italian unit. The King Hussein Foundation for Family Health is present, as well as three health clinics.

What’s more, the United Nations’ World Food Program feeds the camp and trucks in a million liters of water each day. UNICEF aims to start schools for the children, which make up 50 percent of the camp’s population, and the UNHCR is responsible for things such as tents, mattresses and blankets.

Still, to anyone visiting the camp it must be clear that the Jordanian Hashemite Charity Organization (JHCO) is in charge. Their logos and offices pop up just about everywhere and journalists must report to the JHCO upon arrival. “We manage the camp and all organizations inside,” said JHCO media envoy Abdelmajed. “Including the UN?” I asked. “Yes,” he replied hesitantly. “But we do more of a coordinating than managing job.”

At first, he also intended to manage the media. It took some time to convince him he did not need to accompany me on what, according to him, should be a 2-hour visit. Despite all good intentions and the refugees’ suffering and needs, I could not escape the feeling of being in prison. There was a way out. While an official permit is hard to get, one man said, the soldiers at the gate turn a blind for JD 350 ($525).

Peter Speetjens is a Beirut-based journalist who was on assignment last month in Jordan

October 7, 2012 0 comments

The Buzz

Morning briefing: 5 Oct 2012

by Executive Staff October 5, 2012

written by Executive Staff

The European Union is poised to ban imports of Iranian gas into Europe as part of its efforts to ratchet up pressure on the Islamic Republic over its nuclear programme, diplomats have said.

Diplomats from EU member states have started preparing a package of sanctions against Iran with a goal of formally adopting them at a meeting of foreign ministers on Oct. 15 in Luxembourg.

"There is agreement on gas," one of the diplomats said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The big states back it, Germany, Britain, France," another one said.

More from Arabian Business

A leading Lebanese banker has said he expects the profits of the banking sector to plunge as much as 25 percent at the end of the year in light of the severe economic slowdown, political stalemate and volatile situation in the Middle East.

“I am afraid that the profits of the local banks will fall by 25 percent at the end of the year. The results of the first six months of this year were not too encouraging as well,” chairman of Byblos Bank Francois Bassil told The Daily Star.

Most of the Lebanese banks have either reported a drop in profits or nearly flat results in the first six months of 2012 amid concern that the days of hefty profits are long gone.

More from Arabian Business

Facebook has announced that one billion people around the world are now using the social media platform at least once a month.

Since its launch, 1.13 trillion likes and 140.3 billion friend connections have been generated, with 219 billion photos shared since the launch of this application in 2005, Facebook said in a statement.

The US media giant also revealed that 17 billion check-ins were made, which included location-tagged posts.

More from Arabian Business

Iranian riot police were out in force in Tehran’s main squares on Thursday as a number of bazaaris and other merchants kept their shops shut in protest over the falling value of the rial, despite threats they may face prosecution for doing so.

Jewellery and gold shops in Isfahan, Iran’s third city, reportedly joined the shutdown protests and refused to do any trade, citing a fear of making heavy losses. Houshang Shishehboran, secretary of the Isfahan Gold and Jewellery Union, said the decision to halt business in the central city was taken “in response to price fluctuations”.

Iran's currency has fallen 30 percent during the past week, a decline that has raised questions about Iran’s economic health in the face of ever-tightening international sanctions. Wednesday’s strike by bazaar merchants in the capital – which was accompanied by unexpected protests by currency traders – led to clashes between riot police and demonstrators shouting slogans attacking President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

More from Arabian Business

Politics

Jordan's king has dissolved parliament, paving the way for early polls ahead of protests seen as his biggest challenge since the start of the Arab Spring.

The decree follows Abdullah II's pledge to bring in political reforms aimed at avoiding anti-government unrest.

Jordanians have been pressing for a greater say in how their country is run and demanding corruption be tackled.

More from the BBC

October 5, 2012 0 comments

Society

Revolt in Syria

by Joe Dyke October 4, 2012

written by Joe Dyke

One of the most significant challenges foreign journalists have faced in covering the Syrian uprisings these past 18 months has been their lack of understanding regarding the country’s society. Unlike neighboring Lebanon, Israel or regional powerhouse Egypt, Syria’s decades of stability until last year had led the vast majority of Western journalists and analysts to shun it in favor of more ‘juicy’ stories. Even Robert Fisk, The Independent correspondent based in Beirut for three decades, dedicates barely 20 pages to Syria in his 1,000-plus page work on the modern history of the Middle East, “The Great War for Civilisation”.

So when the Arab uprisings eventually worked their way into the country, months after the fall of Hosni Mubarak in Cairo and Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunis, many foreign correspondents found themselves lacking the basic knowledge necessary to produce top-quality coverage. In the absence of this they often fell back upon simplistic versions of events based upon the revolutions in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia. All the people were against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, we were told, while those that were expressing their support were regime stooges forced to do so by Damascus. The political nuances of both the country and the uprising were lost in favor of the wider “Arab Spring” narrative.

Stephen Starr’s book, “Revolt in Syria – Eye-witness to the uprising,” should serve as a counterpoint to this view, which has increasingly proved inaccurate in the past year. Starr had been based in Damascus as a journalist for five years by the time the protests broke out and had written almost exclusively about his host country. He had a detailed knowledge of the key figures involved in the regime and, having even worked for a state newspaper, understood what made it tick.

In “Revolt” Starr recounts the first year of the revolution as seen from his home in Damascus. He assiduously searches out different viewpoints to those that were given so much prominence in the early part of the revolution.

In one of the early chapters he documents the revolt through the eyes of Syria’s minorities – its Christian, Druze, Kurdish, Shia, and Alawi communities. The process is both illuminating and startling. Far from being opposed to the regime, the majority were focused on the threat posed by the opposition. One particular fear — of the uprising taking on a sectarian element as the majority Sunnis seek control over the rest — comes through clearly. At one point the writer hears rumors of three churches that had received a note saying “you’re next,” which is interpreted as a threat that Christians would be targeted following the fall of Assad. While it is disappointing, if in a practical sense understandable, that the writer did not verify those claims himself, these stories provide an insight into the atmosphere in the country during the middle of 2011.

Building upon this, Starr shows how the Syrian state media manipulated these fears by exacerbating sectarian tensions to serve its own interests. Featuring interviews with several key pro and anti-regime journalists, the book breaks down the traditional portrayal of Syrian media as a monolith by drawing a distinction between the state-owned publications and those that are independent but have tended to back the regime.

It is also at times a wonderful portrayal of the average day-to-day normality of Syrian life, far away from the conflict. While the war has now come to Damascus, for much of 2011 the city’s residents felt removed from the crisis. The Damascenes quoted in the book often talk about the war in Homs and Hama as if it were in Timbuktu. But Starr also captures the sense of regime paranoia in the city and documents how the crackdowns gradually increased in intensity even in the capital.

The book is not without fault, however, and at times it feels like both the writer and the editor failed to make the most of Starr’s unique viewpoint. Most importantly there was the perplexing editorial decision to start the book on the first day of the revolution, without allowing space for the background information to which the writer has almost unique knowledge of.

Starr has said elsewhere that the uprising was largely caused by the government’s failure to deal with the 2008-10 drought, but this kind of in-depth detail is not given much prominence. Some of the best parts of the book are anecdotes of the inner-workings of the regime before the uprising but they are not used in an intelligent manner. In a sense the writer’s unique selling point has been underplayed.

Similarly, while parts of the book are well written, with sound analysis being supplemented by fascinating anecdotes, the structure is weak — with a number of middle chapters seemingly lacking purpose. There are also grammatical errors that leave the reader wondering if the book’s editors were so keen to capitalize on the news-value of the Syrian crisis that they rushed it onto the market.

Nevertheless ‘Revolt’ will serve as a key resource for those trying to understand Syrian society during the uprising. Many books will be written on the crisis in the coming years, but this will prove a vital and rare first-hand account of Damascus during the first year of a crisis that is still unfolding.

October 4, 2012 0 comments

Society

I’m not buying it

by Nabila Rahhal October 4, 2012

written by Nabila Rahhal

Social buying seemed like such a wonderful concept at the beginning when my friends started talking about it three years ago. But it seems to me that after the novelty has worn off, so did a lot of the interest in such sites.

It is one of the standard arguments of these sites that ‘everybody loves a bargain’. But that is only partially true when it comes to the Middle East because in this culture there is a general attitude that it is somehow cheap to try to save money through bargains. When they are complimented on a nicely fitting new blouse or fashionable pair of jeans, most of the people I know will emphasize how dear that item was and would not readily admit if they had snapped up a bargain.

However, there is also the opposite trend where young professional Middle Easterners of my generation praise their bargains and social-buying sites may have quite a lot to do with that. “I feel a certain rush when I find a service I want in a place I like on these websites,” says Masha, a frequent user of social-buying sites. “It is as if I am somehow smarter than the rest who paid full price or didn’t know where to look for the deal. It makes the service that much nicer.”

Some operators of social-buying sites were obviously able to convey the image that it is both trendy and smart to score a deal, especially when it comes to services. The top-selling deals on most of these sites are for services such as personal care and for experiences like restaurants or lessons in skills such as French cooking or yoga classes.

However, the psychological appeal of a deal alone will not be enough to draw in new users and make them repeat customers. The sites also need to prove themselves in offering attractive brands and in creating a link between the popularity of these brands and their own. “Groupon and Cobone are the sites I check out the most because they have the best suppliers,“ explains Layla, a fan of social buying who lives in Dubai.

Cobone, a site founded locally in the United Arab Emirates, and Groupon Middle East, the local branch of the global market leader in social buying, are generally seen as the most popular sites of this type in the UAE. In becoming popular, sites can make their deals buzz and have a better chance to create followings. On the other hand, even a popular site may experience that, when the brand it is marketing is not strong, a deal can linger on the site for while, as is the case with certain beach resorts in Lebanon. Even a discount of more than 50 percent on an unpopular resort’s admission will not be enough to make it sell online.

Sites can be a gateway to experiences if the experience is novel and is made to be “fun sounding”. This lowers our resistance to try something new if the price is right, and this is what social-buying sites count on. “I once saw a deal for Salsa dancing lessons,” says Jad, a user of UAE-based site Makhsoom, “and it was something I hadn’t thought of trying; it sounded like fun and came at a good price, so I said why not, and gave it a try.”

This in no way implies that people who buy a lesson in the oud or the sitar out of curiosity will all sign up for enough training to become a Munir Bashir or Ravi Shankar — or even go and redeem their first coupon — but it is a fact that the sites can help foreigners access the local culture in a place such as Dubai where expats are the dominant users of social buying. “I am in Dubai for a relatively short time for work, so I take advantage of any offer I find to experience the country without spending much,” David, a British teacher in the Dubai American Academy, told me, adding that his favorite bargains are for restaurants and exclusive beach resorts.

The cloud of fraud

Among the drawbacks of social-buying sites is the potential for fraud. With stories of phishing and new viruses coming up every day, especially in Lebanon where I live, many people here are reluctant to use their debit or credit cards online. Banks offer “safe” online-buying cards, but this requires a trip to the bank and takes away from the convenience of any e-commerce experience. “I have sometimes found attractive deals online, but none have tempted me enough to get a credit card and buy them,” says Dima, a professional working in architecture. I share this view. Some local social-buying sites like ScoopCity invite you to pay at their offices, but this still seems inconvenient.

As time goes by, someone like myself who is not a full-fledged fan of social buying, discovers more downsides to the sites: they generally offer no cash refunds for unused deals, their customer service is not always as good as I need it to be, and after browsing page after page of similar offers, I ask myself, “Nabila, do you really want this?”

According to frequent users, the quality of deals goes down on most of the sites they are visiting and bargains then linger that much longer on internet shelves, catching virtual dust. If asked what social buying can do better in the region, my answer is that useful and appealing deals, combined with a safe and convenient method of payment, would have me taking a second look at social buying.

October 4, 2012 0 comments

Real Estate

The wisdom of hindsight

by Thomas Schellen October 4, 2012

written by Thomas Schellen

Five years ago it was the building frenzy and Dubai, at least on paper, looked bigger and dinosaur-crazier each month. Then an unprecedented phase of correction meant the survival only of the fittest projects and the leanest developers. Today, the emirate and the entire federation are in a new growth mode that can be likened to a natural evolution, master-planned.

On the ground this translates into a cautious buzz from visible construction activity. This entails airports and hotels and further solidification of the United Arab Emirates’ hospitality and tourism infrastructures, but in Dubai in particular it means that roads are being completed and multi-unit residential projects are bit by bit transformed into the communities they promised to be.

Put in numbers, real estate transactions executed in the UAE over the 12 months ended September 17 totalled around 15,500 with median prices of about $280,000 per transaction, according to Dubai-based emerging markets real estate information company Reidin.com.

“There is a significant revival of developers’ interest in specifically the residential and hotels market. You can expect more residential projects but on a much slower pace than before,” Ahmet Kayhan, chief executive of Reidin.com tells Executive.

According to Reidin.com the total number of registered and licensed real estate projects in the UAE as of September 17 amounted to 1,051 residential projects. The company identified some 470 of these projects as being in various stages of execution and 353 completed, plus 153 which the company believes to be on hold, and 19 known to be cancelled. In the offices segment, 151 of a total of 489 projects were identified as completed, 214 under construction, 71 on-hold and 10 cancelled.

Even though the real estate regulators in the different emirates have been improving their gathering of market information, Kayhan says it is not always easy to get a clear picture of the markets. His company, besides using official information, relies on lots of proprietary research and data gathering. “We believe some of the on-hold projects are really on-hold but most are cancelled. Some will restart soon, but mostly they won’t,” he says.

Some residual data insecurity notwithstanding, the mood in the UAE’s real estate sector entering the fourth quarter in 2012 is positive, according to Craig Plumb, head of research for the Middle East and North Africa at international real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL). “The current sense is one of cautious optimism, replacing the previous cycle of exuberance followed by despondency,” he says.

Master-planners at work

In engineering this moderated buzz, Dubai’s master-planners have done what they said they would. They took a close look at the boom-time mega projects to trim and adapt them to market circumstances, while continuing to build the infrastructure to base future development on. One example for the cityscape’s evolutionary adaptation is the new opera house and modern art museum cultural district announced in May for Downtown Dubai. Its anchor, the Dubai Opera House, was transplanted to the area near Burj Khalifa from The Lagoons, a 2008-announced, $25-billion paper tiger of artificial islands and high rises that is currently on-hold and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.

A rather telling example of far-reaching adaptation to reality is Meraas Development, a corporate child of the emirate’s wild property days that was born in 2007 into the far-flung business tribe of Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum.

Thanks to its late birth, the company did not play a part in any of the Dubai mega projects that were ongoing in 2008 and ground to screeching halts overnight. However, it came onto the stage of breathtaking property displays at the 2008 Cityscape Global real estate show by exhibiting a vision of urban reinvention in several well-populated districts between Downtown Burj Khalifa and the seafront.

The project was inconspicuously called Jumeirah Gardens but would have involved not only a further extension of the Dubai Creek from Business Bay (canals were en vogue in new projects back then based on arguments that these water bodies would refresh the desert and that waterfront properties are more lucrative) and another 600-meter tower (always a favorite among male project owners) but also required deep cuts into the existing Al Wasl and Satwa residential quarters.

The Jumeirah Gardens $95.3 billion testimony to mega-sized planning has not yet moved any closer to becoming a reality, but the company seems to have the stamina and the land to pursue its underlying vision when conditions and interest of foreign investors make projects of this scope possible.

In the meanwhile, Meraas, which as a developer is still one of the better-kept secrets in the UAE real estate market, has been continuously adapting its master plan for market conditions. Its current line-up of projects includes the infrastructure of the Pearl Jumeirah Island and The Avenue, a 1.1 kilometer retail project to be developed in three phases along Al Wasl Road. In hints at its future, it announced the Dubai Adventure Studios theme park at the end of last year, and Dubai Properties Group (DGP) recently announced Meraas will contribute a mall in low-rise towers over the next 18 months to its popular JBR Walk. Trumpeted with a hefty AED 2.2 billion ($599 million) price tag, the theme park is to be built in Dubailand.

Controlled rise of residential

Looking farther across the Dubai developer landscape, multi-unit residential projects are making their comeback but also in a controlled fashion. “Market activity at this stage is focused on the master developers with Nakheel, Emaar and Dubai Properties all launching, or re-launching, properties this year,” Matthew Green, head of research and consultancy for the UAE at real estate services firm CBRE Middle East, tells Executive. “This trend has been prevalent over the past 18 months with the major developers generally pushing to complete their live projects and further establish master-planned communities.”

The government-owned (via Dubai Holding) DPG just announced at the beginning of September the restart of its Mudon project in Dubailand. Citing rising demand for up-market dwellings, DPG will complete some 348 villas and townhouses. Shells of the Cairo Townhouses, one of five city-themed building clusters in the partially complete development, have been gathering dust for more than two years as the project lay dormant. At its unveiling in 2007, it was touted as an $11 billion community for 50,000 residents.

Nakheel, buoyed by a 36.5 percent increase in first-half 2012 profit to AED 767 million ($209 million), has progressed with handovers of townhouses and apartments in projects it restarted in 2010 and 2011, and this year moderately increased its pipeline of new residential developments on The Palm Jumeirah. The ambitious company, which had been battered more than others during the 2008-09 downturn, needed an $8.6 billion cash injection via the Dubai Financial Support Fund (DFSF) in 2010. Part of its $10.5 billion debt restructuring is lately emphasizing the completion of The Palm Jumeirah, with both homes and commercial projects, the most flamboyant being The Pointe, a major retail and hospitality strip. The developer has been busy talking to banks about raising the more than $80 billion it will need to make it happen since January this year, claiming indicative positive responses.

Hospitality is big on the mind of Damac, which claims to be the largest private sector developer of luxury real estate in the Middle East. Among 10,000 units in its current project pipeline and a new swathe of projects to be announced in the near future, the company plans for 4,000 serviced apartments, General Manager Ziad el-Chaar tells Executive.

Emaar’s focus is Downtown Burj Khalifa where it is expanding Dubai Mall and has just announced another project, ‘The Address BLVD’ — a hotel conjoined with serviced residences that will stand 340 meters tall. The enthusiasm to snap these residences up, though, smelt of an unhealthy return to speculation, judging by reports of queues forming days before they went on sale. Back in May the developer boasted of selling all 224 units in a mid-rise apartment development, Panorama at The Views, “within hours” of its launch. Another project, the Alma 2 community within the Arabian Ranches development, has also met resonance with buyers.

Based on market indications and marketing incentives offered by developers who want to rapidly sign buyers for projects like Panorama, Executive calculates that sales prices fetched by developers of well-positioned apartments and villas these days would be about equal to where prices stood in late 2007, signifying a substantial recovery from the depth of the trough, at least for residential projects with good infrastructure and a good reputation.

“Clearly there is improved sentiment in the market and that is portrayed by a return of off-plan sales launches,” remarks BRE Middle East’s Green. “However, there is a note of caution to sound, with investor focus still firmly on completed and income-generating assets. Whilst some interest has been evident for newly launched products, this appears to be speculative rather than from end-users or long-term investors.”

Despite some off-plan selling being successful, which was not the case a year ago, the real drivers of real estate development these days should be economic fundamentals, for which JLL cites growth outlooks for both Abu Dhabi and Dubai. In the case of Dubai, gross domestic product growth prospects of four to five percent are mainly based upon its healthy tourism and trade sectors, while Abu Dhabi continues to diversify and cut its reliance on oil.

What the market needs

“What we really need to see is a more sustainable model of development being established in Dubai. Something that is built on true end-user demand and solid fundamentals rather than simply relying on speculative demand to forward-fund projects,” Green adds, reiterating what has become the consensus on Dubai’s evolutionary real estate needs.

The office sector, though, appears to be suffering from oversupply as vacancies of 80 percent in Business Bay speak loudly, while Dubai’s offices in general are half full. Single ownership offices, representing 60 percent of Dubai’s supply, would be the ones to fill up first, but the remaining ones are strata, or multi-owner, titles and perceived as a headache by potential occupants, according to JLL.

“There is definitely not enough new demand to fill up all the empty space in locations like BB [Business Bay]. Expect strata space to be more difficult to lease than that in single ownership,” comments Plumb, adding that free zones still attract an, albeit subdued, premium when compared with onshore offices.

“The only type of development we really need right now is for pre-committed tenants — there are a number of new industrial projects being built for identified tenants and there are also some major office requirements that are looking at having premises purpose built for them rather than leasing spec built space,” he says.

JLL’s second-quarter Dubai market overview states that, according to developers, 24,000 residential units should be handed over in the second half of 2012, but Plumb doesn’t expect all of them will be. “Although they cannot be delayed forever, as most of these are pretty much finished and just require the contractors to be paid and the power to be connected,” he explains.
CBRE’s Green meanwhile believes the number of units to be delivered during 2012 hovers around 14,000, which he says is significantly down on historic annual supply figures. Of those, 3,000 are villas, which Green reckons could lead to inflationary pressures being felt on rents of well-positioned and good-quality villa products.

What is clear is that the new buzz in the market has had its effect on prices, sales and leasing, and the impact is mostly positive for developers, as buyers ability over the last few years to influence prices their way is decreasing. However, what one may call a ‘great divide’ continues to rule Dubai’s real estate market: established areas — such as Emaar’s success with its Panorama and Alma 2 projects suggests — win.

“In established areas we have already seen the market move from stabilization into increase in rents,” says Plumb. “In the less established locations owners are increasing asking prices more out of enthusiasm than reality. I suspect these areas will continue to see rentals decline for the next 12 months. There is a huge amount of new stock just waiting to come on-line, such as in Sports City.”
The majority of the future supply pipeline lies in the emerging secondary locations such as Jumeirah Village and Dubailand, home to Sports City. “This may result in growing vacancy rates and further availability of landlord incentives in those areas that are most impacted by oversupply,” Green explains.

Across the Emirates

Casting a quick eye across nearby northern emirates Sharjah and Ajman, occupancies and rental incomes are looking up but also with softer spots mixed in. According to the April 2012 property update by Cluttons, Sharjah’s Al Majaz Waterfront is offering a new flair to the emirate and is likely to see higher occupancies, but Asteco’s second quarter report on the Northern Emirates highlights dropping rents in Sharjah. In Ajman, resurging building activity in developments alongside Emirates Road has made some of the residential towers rise in height but it is not clear when Ajman’s Emirates City will become a liveable place.

Taking a drive in the opposite direction to Abu Dhabi and the immediate visual impression is of new towers which seem to have sprung up over the last two years, such as Etihad Towers and Sowwah Square. According to Cluttons, Abu Dhabi has seen occupancy levels in the Grade A spaces improve in these office developments, as well as in Aldar’s HQ tower and in Grade B office spaces available on Reem Island.

The capital of the UAE is not suffering from oversupply in residences and residential rents in Abu Dhabi are still 15 to 20 percent higher than in Dubai, despite recent handovers of Reem Island, Al Reef, Al Raha Gardens and of Saadiyat Island. Rent-to-own schemes are working well in the capital, according to Cluttons.

“A large number of projects have either been put on ice or, where started, the projects have been stopped or delayed,” says Richard Paul, Associate Director at Cluttons. “This put upward pressure on any available premium property and in consequence rents have either held or are even increasing.”

CBRE’s Green, however, believes that Abu Dhabi is reaching the peak of its development cycle and that is reflected in the continued deflationary pressures on rents. “Looking forward we see further downside for rents in Abu Dhabi over the next six months,” he says. “This is particularly true given the large number of units set to be delivered in the capital over the next two years.”

October 4, 2012 0 comments

Economics & Policy

Collective commerce

by Thomas Schellen October 4, 2012

written by Thomas Schellen

Social buying is collective bargaining in the Internet age. The advantage that group formation brought workers in the industrial age was greater power to represent and achieve their demands vis-à-vis employers in terms of wages, working hours, and benefits. The advantage that individual e-commerce participants have in joining a group — i.e. using a social-buying website — is that they can benefit from the site’s purchasing power to induce sellers of products and services to give them price discounts, free extras, and, theoretically, better customer service.

Sitting on the other end of the bargaining seesaw, merchants can use social buying sites as online marketing tools to expand their customer base into an online community, gain advantages in fast and precise analysis of marketing campaigns, and, also in theory, increase their repeat business.

The social-buying model is represented in the Middle East by scores of startups and locally-grown companies — ScoopCity, a one-year-old site owned by entrepreneurs Abdallah and Sara Yafi is a Lebanese example — or by the affiliates of companies in the United States where the model was pioneered by the likes of Groupon and LivingSocial.

Four-year-old Groupon has been present in the United Arab Emirates since 2010. LivingSocial entered the regional markets in 2011 by acquiring a company called GoNabIt, which claimed to be the first social-buying venture to launch in the UAE when it opened its online portal in mid-2010. The operators of the sites will usually take their cut from the merchants; for example ScoopCity will offer a typical deal, or “scoop” in its lingo, at 50 percent of the item’s or service’s nominal value to its members. The merchant will provide the deal at 25 percent of the standard price to the site operator; every online buy will leave the operator with gross earnings equivalent to half the discount obtained by the customer.

Enter the iPhone

The original iPhone – i.e. iPhone 1 – sold less than 1 million units on its launch weekend. Apple’s iPhone 4 launched last year with sales of 4 million units in the first weekend. Last month, the iPhone 5 sold 5 million according to an Apple media announcement on September 24. But whether you wonder if there is a pattern or if the world’s most valuable company should perhaps have skipped a few numbers and launched iPhone 7 or 8 this year, the fact is that the most demanded gadget of them all right now is the iPhone 5.

Nice, but what does that have to do with social buying? Quite a lot actually. For one general observation, social buying as a business model relies on high attention rates and short attention spans working in tandem, and the craze of standing in line for a day to get an iPhone in week one instead of week three of market presence is a show of “need-to-have” immediacy and run-with-the-pack behavior.

On the ground, the iPhone 5 tied intimate knots with social buying in the United Arab Emirates last month; the larger operators in the market put up iPhone 5 offers immediately after the device’s launch weekend.

At over $1,000, the deals were not really of the high-discount variety usually associated with social buying, and attracted less buyers than expected, according to Frank Scheunert, board chairman of Mox Deals, the social-buying unit of German-telecoms firm Mox Telecom. Mox Deals operates in the UAE market and seeks to compete with the two companies that are considered the biggest fish in the Emirates’ social-buying pond, American-owned Groupon Middle East and locally grown Cobone.

“I did a comparison [after two days], Groupon had sold approximately 140, Cobone about 100, and we around 50. I was a bit disappointed to be honest; I would have expected that every provider would have seen several hundred orders come in,” Scheunert said.

Bigger rival Groupon Middle East’s Chief Executive Alexander Kappes took it differently. “We have sold 150 iPhones and have taken the deal off the site [after three days]. It was a great demand,” he told Executive, adding that in pricing the smartphone at AED 3,800 ($1,035), the social-buying offer on the iPhone 5 was competitive against the high markups charged by the traditional phone vendors in the first few days of the gadget’s availability in the UAE. “This was not a markup but it was about showing that Groupon can put such a product on the site and be the first to have it available for people to pick up the same day.”

Tough to master

Social buying is an online concept that is easier to set up than to succeed with, and one of the globally leading adopters, LivingSocial, has just experienced a meltdown of its presence in the Middle East. The operator, which had moved into the regional market only a year ago by buying local player GoNabIt, declared in the middle of August that it was urgently seeking a buyer for its regional customer data base encompassing operations in the UAE, Egypt, and Lebanon, and then promptly closed shop before the end of the month, comforting customers that valid deals would still be honored and pointing them to their global head office unit for all other concerns.

In another example, global social-buying market leader Groupon launched a high-flying $20-a-share initial public offering on Nasdaq in November 2011, only to see its share-value crash to $4.15 at close of August 31 this year and trade between $4.15 and $5.27 throughout September, barely recovering from the historic low. Over the course of only 10 months, the stock thus morphed from an investor craze into something of an investor scare and the company’s chairman, Eric Lefkofsky, Chief Executive Andrew Mason and director Brad Keywell all fell off the pages of Forbes magazine’s list of the 400 richest Americans. Mason (31 years old) and Keywell (42) were each worth less than a paltry $500 million, Forbes wrote sympathetically in August.

The fact that stock markets have already reflected overexcitement and subsequent under-appreciation of the biggest player in the social-buying sphere does not say anything about the operational soundness and fundamental validity of the business concept. Nonetheless, with a swell of downside observations in global markets raising concerns over core issues such as customer satisfaction and loyalty, or bad vendor experiences of un-met expectations or user fraud, plus LivingSocial having folded in Dubai, it is natural to ask if the social-buying business model in the Middle East is an already a dying fad or still filled with future.

To answer that question, it must be understood that LivingSocial did not exit from the region because of local considerations, said remaining operators. According to Scheunert, LivingSocial had a very sophisticated website and high-class interface but may have been spending too much in the local market. “LivingSocial has given up on this very early on, as they have been only under a year in the market and invested a lot. Obviously their strategy was too expansive,” he said.

Abdallah Yafi, managing partner of Beirut-based ScoopCity said the LivingSocial decision to pull out was “purely a US-based decision”, citing discussions with concerned parties. “Surprisingly, the company was doing well here in generating traffic and good revenue figures. The decision came from the US where the global cost structure did not allow them to sustain the Middle Eastern operation,” he said. “They were trying to run the company in the region with a similar model to that they used in more mature markets. This didn’t work and they decided to pull the plug because they decided they would rather concentrate on the mature markets where they were making profits, rather than trying to grow a market that still has investment [needed] in order for them to reach the level of profitability that is acceptable to them.”

As for measuring the impact of LivingSocial’s exit on the UAE market, Kappes said that it was still too early to tell the effect on Groupon, while citing that the 2-million plus registered user base of Groupon and the 1.5 million user base of LivingSocial are likely to have significant overlap. “It is a shame to see a big name like LivingSocial exit the market,” Kappes said, because the international brands represent strong skills, and the regional market and operators have still some ways to go before reaching maturity. “There is still a lot to learn,” he exclaimed.

Expanding in the future

While the markets in the UAE and region over-abound with social buying sites, the consensus of the three operators interviewed by Executive was that the potential for social buying was far from exhausted but the next stage of development would certainly involve consolidation.

Groupon is looking at expansion into other regional markets while using the Dubai operation as a hub, and hopes to leverage the strength of the UAE team to grow into markets with high Internet penetration and high incomes.

Some countries in the Gulf “are obviously very interesting if you look at markets with big potentials like Qatar, like Saudi Arabia, like Kuwait. They have very high GDP per capita and very high internet penetration,” said Kappes, but emphasized that recent media reports were incorrectly citing him as saying that the company was planning to launch offices in six Gulf Cooperation Council countries in the near term.

Mox Deals is close starting operations in Saudi Arabia, Scheunert told Executive. “We are in the establishment phase in Saudi Arabia,” he said. “We have a good partner there, an advertising group, and we will announce more in a few weeks.”

Scheunert, whose Mox Deals had announced in August that it was interested in buying the LivingSocial UAE customer database, said the company was still at the table for this acquisition but the process by which the deal on the database was offered had been lacking information; he added that such a data base loses value every week.

For world leader Groupon and smaller international Mox Deals, expansion prospects in the region do not extend to countries such as Lebanon, at least not before they develop their footholds in larger and safer countries in the region as well as master looming challenges, such as the Arabization of platforms that are required to reach audiences in Saudi Arabia. The desire to expand in the other direction, from Lebanon into the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, however, is strong.

According to Yafi, ScoopCity wants to diversify its business into a wider e-commerce range and then quickly go regional. “We will look at the GCC as of first quarter of next year,” he said. “That is our objective.”

October 4, 2012 0 comments

Comment

Nukes and Netanyahu

by Sami Halabi October 4, 2012

written by Sami Halabi

By Mitt Romney’s own admission he has already lost some 47 percent of the vote in the race for the United States presidency to those who believe they are “entitled to healthcare, to food, to housing,” and that the “government has a responsibility to care for them.” So if the Republican candidate is to muster the majority to win the White House, he needs help. Thankfully for him he has his old friend from the Boston financial world to try to bail him out: Former Boston Consulting Group executive Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu.

Touching down in the US last month, Israel’s Prime Minister went on a whirlwind tour lambasting the Obama administration’s policy on Iran for not drawing the ‘red line’ that he wanted to see. Later in the month, the right wing group Secure America Now ran a campaign attacking Obama showing a speech by Bibi pleading to the world that Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon and then reiterating Romney’s rhetoric on Obama’s Iran policy: “The world needs American strength. Not apologies.”

Bibi’s administration has predictably denied that they are picking favorites in the US election. But that has not fooled most political commentators and journalists in the US, Israel or anywhere else who see the PM as clearly favoring Romney. Secure America Now, which maintains one of Bibi’s ex-advisors on its board, has a clear purpose: to air in the districts of Florida where the Jewish vote, estimated at some 20 percent of the total, holds sway at the national level.

For those who remember, Florida — which holds more than 10 percent of the votes needed to win the presidency — was the state that tipped the scales in the contested 2000 election that saw George W. Bush enter the White House. Romney, who (by American standards) is trailing wildly in the polls, will need these and other swing states, as well as all the help he can get from his friends in Tel Aviv to have any chance of winning.

It’s obvious why Romney wants to push the Iranian nuclear issue to the forefront of an election dominated by the economy. It will be much harder for Romney to win over undecided votes by advocating his trickle-down economics against Obama’s more populous Keynesian positions. What is less clear is what the difference between Romney and Obama actually is over Iran and Israel.

Despite the fact that not even the International Atomic Energy Agency knows how close Iran may be to having a nuclear weapon, or if it even intends to build one, Bibi assures us all that Iran is “90 percent there”.

But when Romney is cornered, he admits that he draws the same ‘red line’ as Obama on Iran: “My red line is Iran may not have a nuclear weapon,” he said to an American news channel last month.

He then proceeded to suggest that the Iranians could transfer such technology to Hamas or Hezbollah and, if that occurred, it could threaten US shores. How exactly Iran could transfer these materials, under the watchful eye of Western satellites, through Iraq and a civil war in Syria to Hezbollah, or through an Iran-paranoid Israel to reach Gaza, it seems only Romney knows. Apparently he also has information that suggests both organizations have the capacity to then somehow transport these bombs to the US.

It is a fact of geopolitics that the election outcome in the US will have large implications for the Middle East but as far as Iran’s nukes are concerned, the only discernible difference between Obama and Romney is that the former’s red line is the bomb, while that latter’s is the “capacity” to build one. But if his friend Bibi is correct, Tehran is at “break out” capability and can produce a bomb in a relatively short period of time. So, if he is to be true to his word, Romney should advocate bombing Iran today, even if that would gain him few votes from Americans, who overwhelmingly support getting out of the wars they are in, not getting involved in any more. Israel doing it is another issue, and one Romney says he would respect. But most experts have duly noted that any such action would require US military assistance, derailing the process of enrichment at best and setting off a domino effect in the Middle East at worst.

Sorry Romney, you’re going to have to find another way to avoid your self-imposed margin of error.

Sami Halabi is a Masters of Public Policy candidate at the University of Edinburgh and former managing editor of Executive

October 4, 2012 0 comments

The Buzz

Morning briefing: 4 Oct 2012

by Executive Staff October 4, 2012

written by Executive Staff

Economics

Riot police in Iran have clashed with protesters in the capital over sharp falls in the currency, the rial.

Tear gas was used to disperse the demonstrators, some of whom were setting fire to tires and rubbish bins. There were many arrests, reports say.

Eyewitnesses told the BBC that scores of people gathered outside the central bank, calling for the governor to stand down, chanting anti-government slogans.

The rial has plummeted to record lows against the US dollar in recent days.

More from the BBC

National Bank of Fujairah will replace British lender Barclays PLC on the United Arab Emirates' interbank rate setting panel, the banking regulator said on Thursday.

"Following the withdrawal of Barclays Bank from the Eibor fixing process, the National Bank of Fujairah was selected by the Eibor panel banks to join the Eibor panel, starting October 8 2012," the statement said.

Sources told Reuters last month that NBF, the 11th-largest bank by market capitalisation in the UAE, would join the panel after the U.K.-based lender quit the panel in July.

More from Arabian Business

The airline industry is expected to continue its growth in the Middle East but at a slower pace than previous years, British Airways Middle East Commercial Manager Paolo De Renzis has said.

“I see growth due to strong demand, but I don’t know if it will continue at the same pace,” Renzis said during an interview held in Beirut’s eastern suburbs hours before the touchdown of the first British Airways plane at Rafik Hariri international airport since 1992.

British Airways began running flights to Lebanon in 1987, but ended operations five years later.

More from Arabian Business

Politics

Turkish artillery has renewed firing at targets in Syria after shells from across the border killed five Turkish nationals.

Several Syrian troops were killed by Turkish fire, activists from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Turkey's border town of Akcakale was shelled, apparently by Syrian government forces, on Wednesday, killing a woman and three children.

More from the BBC

US Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney was seen to have come out on top after the first presidential debate, with Barack Obama performing badly.

The focus of the debate was on domestic issues, foreign policy was not discussed in depth.

More from the BBC

October 4, 2012 0 comments