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Levant

Dahieh’s rise from rubble

by Executive Staff February 3, 2009
written by Executive Staff

As Gaza licks its wounds and starts to make up the balance of the latest Israeli assault, Lebanon’s Hizbullah has, since the end of the July 2006 War, worked on the reconstruction of Haret Hreik in Beirut’s southern suburbs. By the people, for the people and a quick return to what once was, seems to be the motto. While Hizbullah officials emphasize the reconstruction of the southern suburb has nothing to do with Solidere’s reconstruction of downtown Beirut, there are nevertheless some striking similarities.

“There is no ‘divine victory’ without reconstruction,” said Hassan Nasrallah in his speech on August 14, 2006, which marked the end of the July War with Israel. Although many Lebanese saw little divinity or victory, they did notice that Nasrallah kept his promise, as the reconstruction is in full swing, especially in Haret Hreik. With over 200 buildings under construction in an area of 0.8 square miles, the “capital of south Beirut” is arguably the largest construction site in Lebanon.

The toll of war

Home to Hizbullah’s former headquarters, the southern suburb was severely bombed in the 2006 war. According to the Lebanese army, 942 air strikes hit south Beirut. The Haret Hreik municipality reported that 265 residential, commercial and office buildings were partly or completely ruined, while a total of 3,119 housing and 1,610 commercial units were destroyed. Some 20,000 people lost their homes.

For the $400 million reconstruction of Haret Hreik, Hizbullah created a new organization, Waad al Sadiq (the faithful promise). The organization technically works under Jihad al Binaa, Hizbullah’s construction arm, yet in reality it works largely on its own. Situated opposite the church of Haret Hreik, Waad signed for the urban master plan and set the criteria for builders to abide by. At the start of 2009, 233 buildings in Haret Hreik were under construction, some 150 of which had their basic structure complete.

“Waad is the largest democratic collective reconstruction project ever undertaken anywhere in the world,” said Waad CEO Hassan Jeshi. “We did not impose Waad on the people. The people asked us,” he said. Waad gave Haret Hreik’s homeowners a choice: either to keep the state compensation of some $53,000 for war damages and rebuild their homes themselves or to hand over money (and responsibility) to Waad, which pledged to pay for all additional costs. Perhaps not surprisingly, most people chose the latter.

Jeshi declined to elaborate on Waad’s sources of funding. It is a public secret, however, that Hizbullah is partly financed by Iran. In addition, it receives donations from individuals in Lebanon and abroad. Jeshi emphasized that the reconstruction of Haret Hreik was not strictly a Hizbullah affair, as the master plan was drawn up with the help of an advisory board of eight leading Lebanese architects, while dozens of consultancy firms, from all segments of society, were involved in the process.

Still, the main themes for the reconstruction were set by Hizbullah, more precisely, by Hassan Nasrallah in his victory speech; a quick return of the internally displaced, to good quality buildings in a recognizable, yet more beautiful Haret Hreik. The return to “what was” is at times taken quite literally, as even buildings that suffer from a lack of natural light are to be rebuilt.

Improvements refer, among other things, to the alignment of buildings and the widening of streets and sidewalks. Most buildings will be painted in uniform (pastel) colors. Interesting novelties include the introduction of solar-powered street lighting and the use of double walls to save energy. Regarding individual preferences, inhabitants have a say in the design of their future home’s interior.

Some critics have claimed that the Waad Project only reinforces the image of Hizbullah operating as a state within the state. “We don’t aim to replace the government,” Jeshi countered. “One should know, however, that the government pays compensation, yet never re-built a single house. What’s more, civil society in Lebanon has always played an important role. Every community has its schools, hospitals and media. That is not a specific Hizbullah feature. That is Lebanon.”

Others ague that Waad is not solely interested in the comfort of Haret Hreik’s inhabitants, but as much in the well-being of Hizbullah’s armed wing. “Mao said that the resistance is like a fish in the sea of the people,” one Waad official said. “Israel knew very well that Haret Hreik was not a military area. It aimed to destroy the sea.”

“Even if you do not like Hizbullah, you have to admit that, in some ways, it has done the inhabitants of Haret Hreik a huge favor by allowing them to rebuild their homes, which otherwise would have been impossible in the current legal and institutional framework,” said architect and urbanist Mona Fawaz. “While on the other hand, the Lebanese state missed a huge opportunity to re-establish a positive presence in south Beirut. The one complaint you hear again and again when talking to the people of Haret Hreik is, ‘no one from the government came to see us.’”

Why not rebuild better than before?

“What I find a pity is that there has been so little debate about the future of Haret Hreik,” Fawaz added. Shortly after the 2006 war, Fawaz and a number of colleagues at the American University of Beirut established the Task Team Haret Hreik (TTHH) with the aim to improve living conditions in the densely populated suburb. In January 2007, it developed a proposal that was eventually published as a booklet with recommendations, including an emphasis on public space and greenery, and improving traffic circulation. This was preceded by three months of trying to initiate a call for an international design competition. 

Although Fawaz had never expected that Hizbullah would share the responsibility for reconstructing its “home” with outsiders, she hoped to at least initiate some sort of debate. Hizbullah at first welcomed the TTHH’s work, yet quickly dismissed the call for an international competition. “For several reasons,” Fawaz said. “Most importantly, it argued that a design competition would require too much time, as it aimed for the rapid return of the internally displaced. Furthermore, Hizbullah feared that outside intervention would seek to (partly) depopulate Haret Hreik.”

When talking about the future of Haret Hreik, Waad officials like to emphasize that the reconstruction of the southern suburb is nothing like Solidere’s facelift of downtown Beirut. Echoing traditional left-wing criticism of Solidere, they argue that the heart of Beirut has become a city that is unrecognizable and unaffordable for its former inhabitants. Yet despite the obvious differences in approach, there are some striking similarities as well.

In both cases a private entity supervises the reconstruction process, aided by a board of well-known architects to produce what Fawaz called “an air of credibility and legitimacy.” Meanwhile, according to Fawaz, both boards worked largely behind closed doors and allowed for little input from third parties. Also, both have redesigned the city in enclaves that seem disconnected from the rest of the city. Both Solidere and Waad have mastered the art of public relations and, finally, both often work with “legal exceptions.”

Solidere has been severely criticized for demolishing buildings of historical or cultural value in downtown Beirut under the pretext that they no longer met minimum safety regulations. In its aim to resurrect Haret Hreik as it once was, according to Fawaz, Waad is reconstructing buildings that were in violation of urban zoning laws (floor regulation ratios, maximum heights, etc.) and the building law (natural light, ventilation).

Large parts of South Beirut consist of “informal” and often poorly constructed settlements, especially in areas such as Uzai or Hayy el Sellom, mainly as a result of years of civil war and Israeli occupation in South Lebanon, which forced many inhabitants to flee to the Lebanese capital. At the same time, as Haret Hreik during the Civil War was the domain of Muslim militias, the once predominantly Christian population left, selling lands and possessions to property developers.

“When constructing, especially in the early 1990s, most developers found legal loopholes to avoid, for example, the minimum of 25 percent of public space that is required when large lots are subdivided in commercial units,” said Fawaz. “As a result, Haret Hreik and South Beirut have become the densely populated areas we know today. Yet, if I as an individual rebuild my home, public officials can prevent me on the basis of the building law and 1994 Regulation Law. Yet, if Hizbullah collectively rebuilds, no one will stop them.”

“What is more alarming, however, is that the pre-war urban fabric badly needed interventions to improve livability and, in that context, Waad does very little, since it has committed itself to replicate the pre-war fabric,” Fawaz added.

Building “terrorist infrastructure”

Finally, on a rather different note, the US administration regards Hizbullah as a terrorist organization and in early January it included Waad on a blacklist of organizations that support terrorism. Jihad al Binaa had already been listed. According to US authorities, Waad has rebuilt the Hizbullah “command center” and underground weapons storage facilities. Waad officials dismissed the notion that Hizbullah is a “terrorist” group, denying the allegations.

Fawaz called the allegations unreasonable. “After the destruction of the 2006 war, everyone was free to walk around Haret Hreik to see there was no military infrastructure (such as bunkers and tunnels), as had been alleged,” Fawaz said. “And today too, everyone can go to Haret Hreik to see what is being rebuilt.”

February 3, 2009 0 comments
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Levant

The Internet’s neanderthal

by Executive Staff February 3, 2009
written by Executive Staff

In a world where information, technology and communication converge constantly, the rapidity and efficiency of a country’s telecommunication system are key to the development of its society. In Lebanon, where the telecom sector is decades old, a group of professionals is trying to promote the importance of broadband in businesses and society overall, with an awareness campaign scheduled for next month.   

“There is no real broadband in Lebanon, where communication speed and download capacity are extremely low. I really believe that the term broadband should no longer be used loosely to refer to speeds of less than one megabyte per second upload speed,” says Salam Yamout, chief program manager at Cisco and member of the Lebanese Broadband Stakeholders Group steering committee. 

A dirt road of an information highway

Broadband refers to telecommunication allowing information to be transmitted over a wide band of frequencies in a given amount of time.

Lebanon’s telephone infrastructure was built in 1993. Three years later Internet was introduced, using phones lines for data transportation. Unfortunately, today Lebanon is no longer on par with other countries in the region or the Western world.

“Connectivity does not only refer to Internet connections as it also has other uses. Individuals and the private sector have different needs for connectivity,” adds Yamout. “Individuals usually want to have their home connected over a single broadband connection to have access to many applications and services such as TV, video on demand, telephone directory services, Triple Play, the Internet and other services. For businesses, insuring connectivity between branches nationally and internationally is essential. An illustration we could all relate to is connecting branches in the banking sector.”

Jennifer Sarraf, IT manager at Malia Group, reckons that connectivity is vital to her company’s operation, which owns offices in three different areas of Lebanon as well as abroad. “In spite of disposing of four DSL lines, accounting for monthly bills of over $5,000, our company is unable to make proper use of its new software system which relies on high speed internet connection, due to connectivity problems,” she adds. Issuing invoices by connecting to the company’s central server is a process that requires as much as 15 minutes because of slow connectivity, explains the IT manager. The company has been forced to invest in three servers instead of one because slow connections render remote backup operations extremely difficult. “We faced similar problems when expanding in Jordan, as our international branches did not have the possibility to properly connect to our headquarters’ system,” Sarraf remarks. Backups are therefore done daily and manually on tape, which are then couriered to the company’s headquarters.

Broadband connectivity has been linked to lower costs and higher productivity, two things Lebanese businesses are in need of, while slow connections are synonymous with lost opportunities in our global world.

Yamout points out that while in number of users Lebanon ranks high among other countries in the region, it lags behind in terms of speed of connections and affordability. “The idea for creating a Lebanese Broadband Stakeholders Group stemmed from a conference held last year in January,” says Yamout. “ICT company owners had complained they were losing thousands of work hours due to slow connection. Their testimonial was backed by the dean of the American University of Beirut who had argued that greater connectivity could allow Lebanon to save lives with the use of remote medicine. And a broadcasting company reported loss of income and business opportunities because of the lack of availability of broadband services in Lebanon,” explains Yamout. Stakeholders, headed by the steering committee including professionals and business leaders representing Lebanese industries, decided to pen their grievances in a document that was called the ‘Broadband Manifesto’.

“lebanon is not advancing at the same speed as technology is globally”

The Broadband Manifesto

The manifesto was signed by more than 500 people including heads of all Lebanese chambers of commerce, professional associations such as the union of industrialists and association of Lebanese banks, major television stations, the bar association as well as the order of Lebanese doctors.

The document calls for true broadband, affordable and reliable for all, which allows for economic and social development as broadband reduces costs to business and improves productivity. Broadband is not to be perceived as a source of revenue and thus should not be overtaxed. Preserving privacy and security was another point mentioned in the manifesto. The broadband market should be a simple, fair and competitive market, something that can only be attained with the liberalization of the telecom market at all levels of networks — international, national and transmission — highlights the manifesto. Access to public infrastructure should be made possible for license providers. No restriction on content or application and service should be applied, while support and development of local content and development of online services ought to be supported by the government.

Today, an economy’s growth and development rests on its ability to process information using communications technology and the ability of consumers, businesses and governments to use ICT to their benefit. Therefore, policymakers should facilitate the creation of an environment where digital connections can thrive.

“We need to build the telecom infrastructure using new technologies that adapt to current uses. Experts believe the completion of a national network would require approximately one to three years,” asserts Yamout.

“Let the market build it…”says the E-readiness report by the Economist Intelligence Unit, adding that “It has long been true that competitive telecommunications and Internet service markets are more efficient than governments in building networks and finding affordable price points for consumers. Policymakers should allow market forces to determine the course of the digital economy.”

Yamout admits that the Lebanese telecom sector, which is still discovering itself, needs to be liberalized. “Lebanon is not advancing at the same speed that technology is globally. Price differences are also extremely high. For example, in Lebanon one can obtain a 256 kilobyte per second connection for $30, while in the West the same price can guarantee you a 350 megabyte per second” connection.

To create awareness, the Broadband Now Group is launching a campaign using mass media, combined with professional seminars and lobbying activities. “People have to be aware that Broadband is essential to a country like Lebanon because of its large Diaspora present around the world,” concludes Yamout.

February 3, 2009 0 comments
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Levant

Economy under occupation

by Executive Staff February 3, 2009
written by Executive Staff

The perpetual strife afflicting the Palestinian Territories has taken its toll on the Palestinian population, whose aspirations for a viable state have withered away over the past 60 years of conflict with Israel. The consequences of the conflict are evident to any objective observer, including the diminishing area of any future Palestinian state due to settlement expansions, an increasing number of Palestinian civilians who have been killed or injured and the damage to Palestinian social fabric punctuated by the schism of political power and the recent Israeli offensive on Gaza. 

Perhaps the most nuanced aspect of Palestinian suffering is the state of the Palestinian economy. The systemic economic hindrances imposed upon the Palestinian economy by the Israeli government are considered by most experts to be the primary impediment to allowing the Palestinian economy to reach its full potential. The World Bank (WB) identifies three principal “paralytic effects” of Israeli policies on the Palestinian economy: access to economies of scale, access to natural resources and access to an investment horizon. Moreover, the bank also cites physical impediments such as road blocks, closures, earth mounds and the ongoing construction of the separation barrier deemed illegal under international law as a “paralysis confronting the Palestinian economy.”

Further exacerbating this paralysis is the political and economic division of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The lack of a contiguous Palestinian land mass and the Israeli economic blockade of the Gaza Strip have resulted in the divergence of the West Bank and Gaza in terms of the effects on total GDP, which stood at an estimated $4.14 billion in 2007, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). The PCBS also noted that Palestine’s total GDP for 2008 is expected to comprise 70 percent of that in 1999 (prior to the second intifada). Per capita GDP fell nearly 30 percent from its height of $1,610 in 1999 to $1,099 in 2007 and is expected to decrease by 7.4 percent in 2008, according to figures by the PCBS and the World Bank. Furthermore, the effects on real GDP of the West Bank and Gaza cannot be accurately gauged due to Israel’s continuing economic blockade and its subsequent military offensive. The IMF  and WB estimates that results from the first quarter of 2008 are slightly negative and project modest growth of 0.8 percent in 2008 “due to a continued, yet marginal drop in economic activity in Gaza, given its already-low base, matched with a modest rise in economic activity in the West Bank.”

The inevitable emergence of Gaza’s alternative economy as a result of the Israeli blockade was estimated to provide nearly 90 percent of all products entering the strip each month, equivalent to about $40 million of contraband, said Palestinian economist Omar Shaban in an interview with Bloomberg. Facilitated by a series of tunnels between Egypt and Gaza, goods that traveled through the tunnels ranged from vegetables to Viagra and served as the main lifeline of the civilian population of Gaza. The associated costs of these improvised means of transporting goods is evident in shops and markets across the strip where an Apple iPod Nano, that lists on Amazon.com at around $150, would cost $500 in Gaza, according to Bloomberg. The Israeli offensive that started on December 27, further intensified the upward pressure on essential items such as food, which has seen a 20 percent and 23 percent rise in prices in the West Bank and Gaza respectively, according to the World Food Program (WFP). The price of one kilogram of tomatoes in Gaza during the Israeli bombardment is said to have risen from about 1.5 shekels ($0.40) before the Israeli onslaught to 7 shekels ($1.75), an increase of over 400 percent, according to Reuters. To date Palestine still does not have its own currency.

Gaza’s imports/exports before Israel’s blockade, during the blockade and after ceasefire deal with Hamas

Source: Paltrade

Increase in obstacles* in the West Bank, Dec 2006 – April 2008

– ‘Baseline’ figure is the number of obstacles erected in the West Bank as of August 2005, which was 376
* Obstacles are defined as checkpoints, partial checkpoints, earth mounds, road gates, road blocks, earth walls and trenches
Source: OCHA

Israel has hobbled the means of transporting palestinian products in a competitive manner

Trade with Israel

The inherent nature of the Palestinian economy, being small and resource poor without its own airport or seaport, predicates that the majority of its economy relies on its ability to trade ­­within its territories and with its neighbors. Trade flows constitute nearly 85 percent of GDP, the vast majority of which (85-90 percent) is with Israel, according to the World Bank. This dependence on the state of Israel can be seen as a direct result of Israel’s economic policies. After Israel invaded the West Bank, it engaged in a policy of “integration” and, in theory, sought to eliminate the barriers that stood between the two economies. This resulted in a rise in Palestinian income as workers took up jobs inside Israel. Palestinian dependence on the Israeli economy at the time of the Oslo Accords in 1993 was immense. Trade with Israel represented more than 90 percent of total trade volume and the trade deficit stood at 45 percent of GDP, according to the Royal Economic Society. After the second intifada in 2000, Israel announced that it intended to end all Palestinian employment in Israel, effectively pulling the rug out from under the Palestinian economy.

Since the Israeli siege on Gaza came into effect in June 2007, essentially stopping all intra-Palestinian trade, the conventional trade of Palestine has relied solely on the internal and external trade of the West Bank. The numerous restrictions and administrative blockades imposed upon the Palestinian residents of the West Bank by the state of Israel have crippled the means of transporting Palestinian products in a competitive manner, thus creating enormous amounts of uncertainty and hobbling shippers’ abilities to compete in regional and global markets. The result has been a perpetual decrease in the amount of Palestinian trade over many years, even before the blockade and the construction of the separation barrier. According to the World Bank, between 2000 and 2006 the amount of West Bank enterprises that made a significant amount of sales outside of their home cities decreased from 60 percent to below 40 percent.

Such increased levels of uncertainty continue to add to the anguish of Palestinian enterprises that are becoming subject to increasingly high fixed costs per kilometer within the West Bank and by default the rest of the world. A recent survey conducted by the World Bank commissioned Palestinian Trade Center (PalTrade) identifies several parameters that increase costs for transporters inside the West Bank. The survey identified as much as a 40 percent increase in distance covered to reach key areas such as Jerusalem and the Allenby Bridge (connecting the West Bank and Jordan) as a result of Israeli policies that do not allow Palestinian trucks to take a direct route. The survey also points out increases of up to 70 percent in labor costs due to delays caused by road closures without announcement, flying checkpoints, unexpected variations on restrictions on cargo and movement of vehicles and people, losses due to inability to deliver on time and the waste of resources waiting and trying to predict certain outcomes.

Intra-West Bank trade routes and effect of impediments

Source: World Bank
Labor costs per kilometer*
* Labor costs computed on the basis of the combination of various vehicle types
Source: World Bank

Ultimately, trade dependency on Israel has proven to be detrimental to the Palestinian economy. In order for trade to thrive, Palestinians must have access to global markets and alternative trading routes. As Executive went to press, the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza remained closed by Israel and Egypt, as it has been since the Hamas takeover of Gaza in June 2007. Although the crossing could potentially provide an enormous amount of respite for the ailing Palestinian economy, this has yet to materialize. Even when the crossing was “operational,” it proved not to be a viable alternative to accessing the global market as the crossing operated only 16 percent of its scheduled working hours between June 2006 and March 2007, totaling a daily loss of $500,000 worth of exports according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA).

A viable palestinian state would need a sustainable economy free to trade and operate its businesses

Trade to the east

Trading through Jordan is also uneconomical due to the fact that all goods moving to and from Jordan must first cross the Allenby Bridge controlled by Israel. This is “a cumbersome and inefficient process that adds to the cost of shipping and discourages West Bank shippers from using the Jordan routes,” says the World Bank. Goods traded through Jordan are subject to redundant searches, parcel volume restrictions and lack of adequate storage facilities for sensitive products like vegetables and medical supplies. The only silver lining is that due to the recent increases in Israeli restrictions, coupled with some improvements in Jordanian logistics, Queen Alia Airport has become slightly more competitive for handling large volumes than its Israeli counterpart Ben Gourion, which tacks on $1,150 for “security surcharges” per metric ton, according to the World Bank. Nevertheless, the World Bank states that Palestinian traders still prefer Ben Gourion because of “better service, easier access and more frequent flights.”

Positioned at the heart of the Middle East, on the Mediterranean, Palestine has tremendous inherent potential. The promise of a thriving and prosperous Palestinian economy is as logical as it is fleeting in the face of the ongoing Israeli persecution of the Palestinian people. Undoubtedly, a viable Palestinian state would need a sustainable economy free to trade and operate its business without the current hindrances imposed upon it by the ongoing Israeli occupation.

Unless realities on the ground change, the economy of Palestine looks set to remain a burden shouldered by Palestinians, rather than a operable underpinning for a future Palestinian state.

February 3, 2009 0 comments
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Comment

Turkey’s return to the east

by Claude Salhani February 3, 2009
written by Claude Salhani

The deep involvement by Turkey’s prime minister in the recent conflict between Israel and Gaza marked Ankara’s return, after an absence of nearly a century, into the fold of Middle Eastern politics. This was something Mustapha Kemal Ataturk, the architect of the post-Ottoman Turkish Republic, wanted very much to avoid.

Indeed, much to the chagrin of many of his compatriots, Prime Minister Receb Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist Justice and Development Party openly sympathized with Hamas in the recent war in Gaza, and that despite cordial relations between Turkey and Israel and Turkey’s neutral stance in the Arab-Israel conflict.

For many Turks, the prime minister’s change of direction in foreign policy is seen as a serious deviation from Kemalist tenet. Ataturk, the architect of the new republic, was a great visionary who wanted to take Turkey out of the Levant once and for all, and bring it into Europe, where he felt Turkey belonged.

“The larger problem that many either don’t see, or want to ignore, is the fact that Turkey’s identity is going through a speedy transformation,” says Tulin Daloglu, a Turkish journalist in Washington. Erdogan, some observers feel, is gradually eroding what Ataturk had put together and they are not comfortable with the notion.

“My first reaction is negative. Erdogan might have strong emotional attachment to Hamas,” says Daloglu.  “But Turkey should not be competing with other leading countries in the region. It should be [working] in full cooperation with them.”

Shortly after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the close of World War I, Ataturk shifted Turkey’s horizons from its traditional eastward leaning to align it with Europe and the West. That included strict separation of religion and politics along the lines of France’s ‘laïcité’. Ataturk and subsequent leaders of modern-day Turkey have labored hard to make this dream of Europeanizing Turkey a reality.

But Europe did not do enough to help speed up the process, as it is perhaps somewhat reluctant to admit a country of more than 70 million Muslims into the European Union. As can be expected, Europe’s failure to seize that opportunity to befriend an important and moderate Muslim country risks sending the Turks back in search of alliances in the Levant, and even beyond, into the former Soviet republics of central Asia. The European Union failed to grasp the importance of bringing in a large — albeit Muslim — nation into the EU, a step that would have solidified European-Arab relations.

Still, in spite of the nearly 100 years during which the Turks stayed away from the Middle East, the three centuries the Ottoman Empire spent incorporating much of the Arab world seems to have left some traces of affinity, at least insofar as the current prime minister is concerned.

But with the continued rebuttal by Brussels, Paris and Vienna of Turkey’s application to join the EU, the inevitable was bound to happen: Turkey’s rapprochement with Arab Islamists and its involvement in the Middle East conflict as a mediator. The latter role was certainly facilitated by the political void left when the United States under the presidency of George W. Bush showed little or no interest in trying to mediate the various problems related to the Middle East crisis. Washington’s refusal to negotiate with Damascus is a prime example of the disastrous policy followed by the Bush neoconservatives and one upon which Ankara jumped to take the relay.

That being said, it is not too late for the Europeans to save the day. In fact, Turkey’s flirtation with Hamas may come as a mixed blessing to the West. On the one hand, a rapprochement between Ankara and the Arab world — particularly with the Islamist organizations, such as Hamas — will prove useful in mediating a future settlement of the Middle East conflict. When the current war between Hamas and Israel finally runs its course, a Turkey acceptable to Palestinian Islamists will prove to be quite an asset. Turkish troops positioned in a newly created buffer zone between Hamas and Israel could be one of the few armies in the world acceptable to both sides. Turkey has the largest, toughest military in the Greater Middle East, more likely than not, on par with Israel’s. Some of their units have seen action in the mountains of Kurdistan, where Turkey has been fighting a guerrilla war against the PKK (the Turkish Workers Party) for several decades now.

The drawback is that Turkey’s reemerging friendship with the Arab world, and its continued exclusion from Europe, will further ‘Islamize’ Turkey. The end result could be that instead of Turkey acting as a buffer between Europe and the Arab/Muslim world, a role Turkey played during the Cold War as a NATO front-line for the Iron Curtain, Europe may wake-up one day to find Turkey suddenly on the other side of that border.

Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times and a political editor in Washington, DC.

February 3, 2009 0 comments
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Finance

Lebanon – Banked for the storm

by Executive Staff February 3, 2009
written by Executive Staff

While some experts believe this year will not be different than the last for Lebanon’s banking sector, others are not so sure. Most agree, however, that conservative policies set by the Lebanese Central Bank allowed the banking sector to avoid any major effects from the global financial crisis. Prohibiting Lebanese banks from purchasing subprime products in the US, building up its foreign reserves to $13 billion (acting as a preventive measure to guarantee the Lebanese lira’s stability), ordering banks to have a minimum of 30 percent of their total assets in cash and setting rigid loan level ceilings for real estate projects, the central bank has played it cool by keeping assets safe and close to home. As of November 26, 2008 Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh announced that the combined assets of Lebanon’s banks totaled more than $100 billion — four times the country’s GDP. Bankers in Lebanon have agreed that the central bank takes pride in shying away from complex investments and structured products that it does not understand, and with the international circumstances that unfolded, it was definitely the right move to make for the Lebanese banking sector. Unfortunately, one thing the central bank cannot protect the sector from is political instability.

Well-known for its volatile social and political environment, Lebanon made a recent comeback after the Doha Accords were signed at the end of May 2008. Foreign remittances by expatriates were the best proof that Lebanese abroad viewed local banks as safe havens, totaling $5.5 billion by July 2008. Those remittances are expected to have surpassed the $6 billion mark by the end of the fourth quarter 2008. In just the first nine months of 2008, deposits into Lebanese banks reached an astounding $7.8 billion — up from the previous record high $6.6 billion for the entire year of 2007. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts that with the June parliamentary elections approaching, a rise in political uncertainty this year is expected to have a negative impact on the flow of foreign remittances into Lebanon. Nassib Ghobril, head of economic research and analysis at Byblos Bank, believes deposit inflow is “likely to slowdown this year, because a big part of the deposit inflow is from the Lebanese diaspora,” adding that, “the key question is, will these expatriates have the same purchasing power and liquidity as they did before the global financial crisis?” He concluded, “this year is definitely going to be different, economically, than last year.”

A rock, but not an island
While the Lebanese banking sector has so far been insulated from the global financial crisis, it is not isolated. Lebanese banks will begin to feel the inevitable decline in economic growth in the coming months. The EIU forecasts economic growth in Lebanon to slow to 2.7 percent in 2009 — down from its previous outlook of 3.1 percent — while finance minister Mohamad Chatah projects a three to 3.5 percent growth rate, down from a previous estimate made in 2008 of five percent. Factors affecting the country’s growth are mainly due to political uncertainty, economic contraction of Western markets and sluggish growth rates in the Gulf. These elements are likely to have an implicit impact on Lebanon’s tourism, real estate, construction and financial sectors, according to the EIU. Despite high levels of liquidity, meager exposure to real estate lending, robust deposit bases and strong support from the central bank, Lebanese banks could be adversely affected by the high political risk and sudden outbreak of conflict that has threatened the country in the past, most recently in 2005, 2006 and 2007.
Beginning the New Year on uncertain ground, banks in Lebanon are still waiting for fourth quarter results to be announced. Ghobril asserts, “It is clear from the third quarter 2008 results that [fourth quarter outcomes] won’t match past results. The fourth quarter was more challenging than the third quarter.”
This year, banks will be even more prudent than before, as the global financial crisis has taught every bank lessons that can only be learned in the crucible. Ghobril highlighted the increased competition amongst domestic banks, as lending opportunities “will be scarcer.” Moreover Ghobril says, “banks will be more careful in scrutinizing their lending opportunities,” especially since “lending opportunities abroad are likely to decline.”
More crucially, Lebanese banks will need to manage their liquidity. “Another concern is the excess liquidity in Lebanese pounds that accelerated in recent months, and where to place this liquidity,” he contends, although the top priority on banks agendas this year will definitely be about “maintain[ing] liquidity over profiting,” Ghobril adds.

Bank stocks
Like most stocks on the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE), bank shares are vulnerable to Lebanon’s political environment. Thomas Schellen — publishing editor at Zawya Dow Jones — contends that, “Share prices of Lebanese banks have definitely been sensitive to the political risk and other developments.” This was most evident in May 2008; after the Doha Accords were signed, bank shares shot up but have since declined. Schellen notes that major banks such as BLOM, Audi, and Byblos “have been on a rather steep slide” since the middle of last year.
Yet Ghobril points out that “stock markets have not really reflected the performance of the listed banks,” and that “they are doing much better than their share prices in terms of performance.” Due to the lack of liquidity and small size of the BSE, bankers seem to turn a blind eye to share prices as the sector has been outperforming itself in the last few years.

Forecasts
Overall, 2009 will be a year of vigilance for the banking sector in Lebanon. Schellen said he would prefer to “use dice or Chinese oracles” to predict what will happen this year, “because in the current economic environment — on a global scale — it’s very unlikely that anyone’s predictions will be on target for 2009. There are so many challenges.” Without a doubt, the most difficult hurdle to prepare for in Lebanon is political uncertainty. Ghobril said he “cannot overemphasize the importance of maintaining political stability,” as it is “key to increasing confidence, which in turn encourages new projects, investments and businesses to expand and consumers to borrow.” But, with Lebanon’s political history, one can never know. “With the elections approaching,” says Ghobril, “it is likely that consumers will be apprehensive and investors will take a ‘wait and see’ approach.” Marwan Mikhael, head of research at BLOMINVEST Bank, expected that as long as the political situation is secure, “2009 will be a record year” for Lebanese banks. If the environment does worsen, on top of slower growth, Mikhael foresees “a slowdown in the capital inflows to Lebanon.”
All in all, Ghobril trusts that this “year will be conservative and cautious, [as we wait] for things to clarify domestically — regarding the political front with the elections — and regionally, economically and financially.” On the bright side, Lebanon’s resilience to political impermanence has enabled the banking sector “to adjust in an environment of political instability,” notes Ghobril. With the unpredictable global financial events and domestic uncertainties, pragmatic approaches throughout the banking sector are indispensable this year. Schellen has faith in the country’s banks and concludes that “confidence in the banking sector does not seem to have waned, as far as I hear, as compared to confidence in banking sectors elsewhere, I think the Lebanese [banks] still shine and look like gold right now.”

February 3, 2009 0 comments
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Finance

The Central Bank of Lebanon – Riad Salameh (Q&A)

by Executive Staff February 3, 2009
written by Executive Staff

As governor of Lebanon’s central bank for the past 16 years, Riad Salameh has seen political and financial instability wrack his country, and he has been lauded by domestic and foreign observers for his steady hand during those times of crisis. Executive Magazine recently sat down with the governor to discuss deposit tax, remittances and strategy.

E At present, how is the Lebanese banking sector performing? When will it feel the impacts of the global financial crisis?
Lebanon will not feel the effects of the financial crisis, because we took the necessary measures preemptively. This crisis has turned out to be a confidence crisis. Confidence in the banking sector in Lebanon and in the monetary in general, is very high, as witnessed by the large conversions from dollars to the Lebanese pound. In 2008, de-dollarization was important and the central bank bought more than $8 billion from the markets. Dollarization rates in deposits in the banking sector dropped from 77 percent to around 69 percent during 2008. The measures that we took preemptively were essentially based on preventing the banking sector from leveraging its balance sheets and on the other side, regulating the structured products and forbidding the acquisition of toxic assets — like the sub-prime — by banks. So the banking sector in 2008 recorded profits that were over $1 billion, which was the best year for them. The liquidity that we do have in our system will prevent any crisis in 2009. As you know our GDP is driven, essentially, by consumption and we do not have a real estate bubble in the country, therefore we are still predicting a real rate of growth of four percent. The only risk for Lebanon is political or security, because the consumption sector is sensitive to events that are linked to these two elements.

E With the regional financial situation at hand, what is expected in terms of foreign remittances to Lebanon this year?
We have run a scenario here at the central bank that we call the ‘worst-case scenario,’ whereby the remittances would drop from $6 billion — which was the level of 2008, according to the World Bank — to $4 billion, which is almost a 30 percent drop. On the other side, we have also computed the import bill of the country, given the new prices of oil — which is a big import for Lebanon — and raw material in general, especially building material and foodstuffs. It turned out that in the worst-case scenario this is going to affect the balance of payment by around 10 to 15 percent. In 2008, our balance of payment closed with a surplus of $3.4 billion. Therefore, an effect of 10 or 15 percent on this balance of payment will not really be affecting the credit possibilities of our system, whether to the public or to the private sector. Now if some Lebanese would return to Lebanon, I personally view it as an opportunity to improve the productivity in our economic sector, because these people have talent, that’s why they were hired outside. Now they have experience and connections. The central bank, in agreement with the government, is going to take initiatives to facilitate credit for new businesses created in 2009.

E With the ongoing political situation in Lebanon — and the upcoming parliamentary elections in June – what are the implications for the Lebanese banking sector?
The elections should happen in a better situation now that we have the reconciliation that took place in Kuwait between Saudi Arabia and Syria. As you know, Lebanon is affected by regional tensions and it is positively perceived here when you have Arab reconciliations. So, the markets are telling us today that we don’t have a real problem in 2009 and we have seen through all the month of January, more conversions from dollar to Lebanese pound. I don’t foresee any negative implications on the banking sector.

E What strategies and regulations will the central bank be implementing this year that are different than the past?
The central bank will make sure that the credit market is working normally and that there are packages that could help to decrease the cost of borrowing, especially on newly created businesses. We do not anticipate any major or fundamental change in the model that we have built through the years. There is no need — given the stability we are seeing and the progress in the banking sector — for any new administrative decision. This year what we are looking at is… implementing Basel II, so we are looking to work more in the elaboration of circulars pertaining to the application of Basel II. We are going to improve on the payment system. We are working today with the Banking Association to introduce the iBank, which is a banking identity for each customer. This will improve the transparency and also the speed of payment. There is also going to be the introduction of what we have called the ‘city project’, which links online and real time the banks with the Central bank so they can have direct access to the information they need. Of course it’s secure access. So we are looking at some improvement, but no administrative measures.

E At a recent conference in Beirut, you announced your support for a single Gulf currency. What are the pros and cons of creating a Gulf Central bank? How will it affect Lebanon?
The Gulf countries have been working for many years to create this currency that we think is an important step forward that can be an advantage for all the Arab countries. The idea to create an Arab currency is based on creating an instrument that would help the Arab countries in the future to face any major crisis that could happen internationally. As you have seen today what saved the US and Europe was the fact that they had an instrument, a currency that was accepted worldwide. So they could create more of this currency and inject it into their economy and keep this economy afloat. You need a currency as an instrument for stability and development… This is a serious project, but also we all know that it will take many years if we start today in order to implement it. In Europe, it took them 50 years. I think it’s important to start laying the ground for that. The Gulf currency can be the first pillar for that project.

E The recently drafted five percent non-deductible tax on interest deposits — which is reportedly going to go up to seven percent – has left many bankers feeling uneasy. Some of them say it is unjustified and its benefits are outweighed by the negative impact it has on the banking sector and depositors. What is the reasoning behind this tax?
The government is seeking to create revenues, because one of the major vulnerabilities of our system is the deficit. The yearly deficit that is increasing and adding to the stock of debt — Lebanon can handle its stock of debt, but the markets need to see less deficit. Of course there are revenue measures, but there is also on the other side, an obligation to the government to rationalize its expenditures. I think that the banking sector that has lent consistently to the government is frustrated by the fact that they are not seeing reforms being implemented. This tax is part of the Paris III program, which was approved by the government, by the parliament and even approved by the banking sector at that time. Including this in the budget does not mean it’s going to be applied immediately because it is stated that it will be left to the Ministry of Finance to determine the proper timing. Certainly today everybody agrees that it is not the time to put more taxes on deposits and therefore on the liquidity of the country. Based on that, I believe this measure — and according to what I understand from the Minister of Finance and the government — will be enacted in the budget, but will not be applied as long as we have this worldwide environment of a crisis in the banking sector.

E With the low interest rate on the US dollar, dollarization of the Lebanese economy is decreasing and people are saving in Lebanese pounds to receive higher interest rates. How safe is the Lebanese pound?
The Lebanese pound is sound, safe and has weathered major crises in the past. The market is confident about the strength of the Lebanese pound. It’s not only an issue of interest rate spread, because you had in the region many currencies — or in emerging markets — that are paying now more interest than the Lebanese pound and yet they have not attracted conversions toward them. On the contrary, we see that their value is decreasing. You can site any emerging country in the past six months — we have seen their currency drop in a substantial way. So there is confidence from the market that the currency is sound and we are determined to keep the Lebanese pound stable and now we have more means to do that. As you know the balance sheet of the central bank is at an historical high. Our liquidity in foreign currency is approaching $20 billion, our gold stock is evaluated at more than $8 billion and we do have other assets that can add up to around $2 billion. So we have a balance sheet that is equal to the GDP of the country and that is a very rare situation in the world.

E The central bank has a lot of obligations in 2009. How are you looking to finance these payments? What should be done for Lebanon to start paying back its national debt?
In 2009, you have the foreign currency denominated debt and you have the Lebanese pound debt. On the foreign currency, the decision was taken to exchange all the bonds that are due in 2009 into maturities that are to be in five to 10 years. The exchange is presently taking place — the Ministry of Finance is preparing for that and we know from the banks that it’s going to be successful. On the Lebanese pound side, there is a heavy demand on treasury bills. I don’t think that the central bank will have to intervene to finance the government this year because of that demand and because the government is running a large surplus in its accounts in Lebanese pounds at the central bank. Our contribution would come in case the government does need foreign currency to pay the interest in foreign currency on the total debt for this year and to meet their demand to buy dollars from us for the import of fuel… As long as political and security situations are good, we view [2009] as a stable year.

E Will bank profits for this year be the same as last or will they slowdown?
I think the stress in 2009 — and I’ve spoken to the bankers about this — is not to fight to improve their profitability, because it is already in good shape, but more to have their attention on keeping good liquidity and not taking undue risks. Lebanon today is one of the rare countries that has excess liquidity, especially in the area. I know that they will be approached for financing in the region, so they have to be careful about their decisions. De-dollarization — and we encourage that — is helping us to decrease the risks, because once the savings are in Lebanese pounds, the usage of this currency is purely local and cannot be used regionally or internationally. So we want to be conservative in 2009.

E In all your years spent as governor of the central bank, what has been your biggest challenge to date?
I am maybe one of these governors who had a big challenge every year. If you want to go back the last 15 years, I have seen Israel invade Lebanon three times. I have seen crisis in the emerging markets — first in Asian markets, then in Eastern European markets, then in Latin American markets. We have lived through very hard political times — the country was always split in two. We have seen the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri and the assassination of many other prominent personalities. Blockades on Lebanon and the war in 2006. International crisis in 2008. A local political crisis with no institution functioning in 2007… I leave it to you to decide which one was the most difficult.

February 3, 2009 0 comments
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Finance

Investment – Proceed with caution

by Executive Staff February 3, 2009
written by Executive Staff

According to a UBS report entitled, “Proceed with Caution,” the year to come should be tackled carefully in terms of investment opportunities. The report identifies potential opportunities and highlights pitfalls to be avoided by investors as the global economy slides further into recession. It also looks beyond the present crisis of confidence occurring the world over and forecasts investment returns for major asset classes and regions. The report indicated it was time to calculate risk, noting “attractive valuations of certain assets must be weighed against the risks stemming from a global recession. We remain defensive overall but recommend increased exposure to corporate bonds.”


The autonomy of a price collapse
Bernhard Kern, executive director of Investment Solutions at UBS AG, remarked that over the past 129 years the SP 500 has had 44 negatives overall. “Among assets that have taken the hardest blow during the credit crisis are featured oil, followed by Middle East equities,” he pointed out. Kern emphasized that previous oil prices between $80 and $100 per barrel were driven by demand, while prices above this level had been mostly fueled by speculation. He explained that the price of oil would probably vary between $30 and $50 in coming months, but it would again witness levels of $100 per barrel in the next few years.
“The collapse of the financials culminated with the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers, which heralded the end of the brokerage model,” Kern pointed out.
The director explained that after September 15 — the date of the Lehman bankruptcy — trust had been significantly eroded, with lending plummeting, while equities were the only functioning market that had remained. He attributed the rally on the dollar partly to the fact that investors had sold off their foreign assets in order to bring their money closer to home.
Kern expected the real estate market to stabilize with the supply of new homes coming down. Regarding global growth levels, he pointed out that GDP growth levels in the developed world were below zero percent, while they remained far from their full potential in the developing world. He estimated that the first two quarters of the year would be difficult for global economies, while the recovery would be a gradual one.
Kern envisioned three possible economic scenarios for the crisis. The first was a V shaped economic recovery with economies picking-up relatively quickly, to which he attributed a 15 percent chance. The second scenario, the most probable according to Kern, would be a U shaped recovery accompanied by a fairly deep recession, which had a 60 percent probability. The final and most pessimistic recovery scenario, with a 25 percent probability, was defined by a deep recession followed by a prolonged period of stagnation.
Kern expected the economic situation to be difficult in the next few months, with stock markets possibly bottoming out yet again before recovery would kick in mid-2009.

Balancing risk
His views were backed by the UBS report — which underlined that improved valuation should be balanced against recession risks — and this has several implications for asset markets. The report noted that “besides their corrosive effect on fundamentals, they also lead to heightened risk aversion, driving investors to seek shelter in risk haven assets such as cash, gold and government bonds. This then causes the price of assets to fall. If so, some higher risk assets may reach a point where they deliver a long-term cash flow that commensurates with the increased level of risk they entail. Although we do not foresee a deflationary outcome, we think a defensive stance is still warranted, given the uncertainty about the depth and duration of the global recession.”
The report added that corporate bonds offered value despite higher defaults. “We recommend that investors start rebuilding equity cautiously with a focus on sectors where earnings contraction is likely to be less pronounced.” Such sectors were identified as healthcare, consumer staples and telecoms.
The report added that, “higher risk opportunity awaited further evidence. It is unclear whether an easing of monetary conditions as reflected in central banks’ interest rates will begin to have a positive impact in 2009. However, as money and credit markets start to normalize, financials and other cyclical exposed equity sectors could benefit from such a policy stance.”
Reflation as a risk factor of government bonds was a final point mentioned in the report. Although deep economic recessions are usually supportive for government bonds, the UBS report fully dismissed that reflationary policies would begin to take hold before the end of 2009, stating that “a cyclical recovery in the economy amid higher fiscal deficits would likely push government bond yields high and prices lower.”

February 3, 2009 0 comments
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Finance

UAE – Called to account

by Executive Staff February 3, 2009
written by Executive Staff

With the tumultuous ride of 2008 fading, banks in the UAE are unsure of what awaits them in the New Year. Slower growth? Check! Tightened liquidity? Check! A troubled real estate sector? Check! The uncertainty comes in what else will banks operating in the Emirates have to deal with and how exactly will they weather the aftershocks of last year?

Waiting with baited breath, investors and analysts alike are anticipating the disclosure of fourth quarter 2008 results in the coming weeks. Before making any sudden moves, experts across the board agree that this year’s first quarter results will have an enduring affect on the banks’ performances for the remainder of the year. Moody’s Investors Service has already declared a “negative outlook” for the UAE banking sector in 2009. While statistics are momentarily unavailable, there are a few indubitable issues that banks in the UAE will be facing in 2009; with the sharp decline in oil prices and the ensuing oil production cuts, the fiscal surplus and real economic growth of the UAE in 2009 are expected to be notably weakened. Thankfully, the country’s “high levels of accumulated oil revenues, over the past five years have served as a catalyst for growth and the accumulation of substantial financial reserves,” Moody’s said. Once the international financial crisis washed ashore on the Gulf coast, a major slowdown in growth in the UAE — and across the GCC — was inevitable. During the five years up to mid- 2008, banks in the UAE were growing so quickly that their “funding growth couldn’t keep up with lending growth, which clearly was unsustainable,” notes Robert Thursfield, a director in the financial institutions group at Fitch Ratings. According to the UAE Central Bank, banks in the Emirates lent a staggering $70.7 billion in just the first nine months of 2008; but this year, lending conditions are being reigned in. The economy’s expeditious growth created a major liquidity problem throughout the UAE.

Where the trouble began
Backtracking to 2007, banks in the Emirates were awash with liquidity as foreign ‘hot money’ was streaming into the country, expecting a revaluation of the dirham. Cash deposits thus surged and the streaming liquidity empowered banks to go on a lending binge. According to Moody’s, the banks used short-term deposits to fund long-term loans. Then, after letting go of the idea of a currency revaluation, foreign funds briskly withdrew their money and liquidity in the country began drying up. The ratings agency estimates that liquidity fell to around four percent of total banks’ assets and it was in late 2007 that the UAE started feeling the brunt of tightened liquidity. Conditions worsened in 2008 once the financial crisis shook the foundations of the UAE economy and banks were one of the first to feel the effects. The continued “liquidity constraints observed [in] the last two quarters of 2008 are expected to have severe consequences, curtailing future asset growth and profitability,” exhorted Moody’s.
To support the mounting cash crisis, by September 2008 the UAE’s central bank announced it would inject $19 billion, while also setting up a $13.6 billion emergency fund facility. Around 15 percent of this fund had been absorbed by UAE banks as of January. Two out of three transfers from the injection have already taken place and the third shot is expected to happen soon. “Originally, they were talking about mid-year, but that may be brought forward. [Also], although initially liquidity was injected straight into bank deposits, we now understand [this is] being renegotiated and [it is] being used as Tier 2 funding. We should get clarity on that over the next couple of months,” explains Raj Madha, director of equity research at EFG-Hermes in Dubai.
The worsening property sector in the country has left the financial market very uneasy and virtually every bank has been — or will be — affected by its outcome. According to Credit Suisse, banks in the UAE have the highest exposure to real estate among their regional peers, with a 35 percent exposure rate for the first half of 2008. Since the credit crunch began, there is no doubt that this figure has risen. With high loan-to-deposit ratios and high exposure to the real estate market, UAE banks are becoming increasingly vulnerable to loan defaults. Some banks will be affected more than others and as Thursfield puts it, “you can’t be a bank [in the UAE] and not have exposure [to real estate].” Moody’s noted the “high potential for a decline in asset quality in the likely event of a property market correction, signs of which were apparent in [fourth quarter] 2008.” In particular, Moody’s was anxious about “the loans to ‘opportunistic’ developers that have been extended over the past four to five years following Dubai’s decision to allow freehold ownership to foreigners in 2003.” As Madha remarks, “It is virtually impossible for the banks to insulate themselves adequately against a very negative scenario, as the entire economy of the UAE is linked to property and if not property then [to] finance or tourism, or retail, all of which are also suffering.”

Baton down the hatches
Due to such unpleasant market conditions, it is no surprise that banks are tightening their lending policies. Emirates NBD — the largest bank in the Middle East — for example, announced in January that it would only consider expatriate customers for home loans if they earned a minimum of $6,800 per month, up from its previous limit of a mere $2,177. Lending policies will only heighten the problem of mortgage availability in the country, thus making it even more difficult for low and middle-income earners to finance their homes. Other banks in the UAE have taken similar action, with HSBC doubling its minimum salary requirements from $2,722 to $5,444 in November 2008. Lloyds TSB also raised its loan bar in late 2008, from $3,260 to a substantial $6,805. The bank, like its peers, bases these changes on the “exceptional market conditions” taking place. Banks in the UAE will definitely suffer “from higher delinquencies, both in retail and corporate lending,” underlines Thursfield. One major difference in banks’ strategies this year will be in residential mortgage lending. “Previously, [banks] might have lent to around 90 percent loan-to-value, now they might be only lending up to 60-70 percent loan-to-value. That will be a very straightforward way of reducing risk to that kind of exposure,” notes Thursfield.
Moody’s points out that the “equity price collapse in 2008 will affect [fourth quarter] financials (although its effects are expected to stabilize in 2009).” Banks in the UAE will eventually recover from this as they have a strong association with their wealthy sovereign and are — as Moody’s conveyed — “the principal architects and drivers of infrastructure and other large-scale businesses and have traditionally helped to boost the franchises of local banks.”
Madha hopes “that the banks do not have significant exposure to third tier developers or brokers; but if they do, they should certainly be reassessing that.” Going on to highlight what UAE banks need to focus on this year, Madha believes, “Finally, it is time to overhaul credit criteria and lending standards and impose a much more cautious approach to lending and credit scoring, encouraging working capital efficiency in all its clients, and watching cash flow and counterparty risk on every loan.” Aside from liquidity, oil prices and a faulty real estate market, Thursfield believes top concerns for banks this year will be “capital, profitability, funding, staffing, franchising, etc.” Another top concern for Madha is asset liability management. Banks must “make sure they have a full understanding of their exposure to the market risk,” he comments. In 2009, banks will definitely be more prudent with their assets and overall management strategies. The major challenge will be maintaining the results of 2008, as growth will unavoidably slow down.

New year, not so new strategies
Since the global financial meltdown hit home, banks in the UAE have indeed received a reality check. “Three months ago, most people seemed in complete denial that anything would happen in the UAE; now obviously that sentiment has changed dramatically”, states Thursfield. Strategies of banks have since been reviewed and the general sentiment is that an international crisis of such a vile nature could not have been foreseen in advance. Since the banks are well capitalized and are unlikely to default — especially with the sector’s sturdy bond with their affluent government — their main concerns will be rather easy to keep an eye on. Thursfield believes that the main strategies of banks will not change, albeit they may “be more cautious and will certainly slow down their lending in corporate and retail.”
Indeed, vigilance and calculated moves are key for 2009. Madha expects banks operating in the Emirates will be focusing on “stabilizing their balance sheets and their NPLs [non-performing loans]. Once they are able to achieve this, then they will be starting to look at issues of raising growth and profitability.”

Forecasts
The arduous obstacles ahead for banks in the UAE are nothing to look forward to, as Moody’s and others are confident that negative market conditions will “persevere for at least 12 to 18 months.” Envisioning the worst case scenario, Madha foresees a lack of improvement in the property market and “that a major state developer could default on its loans and liabilities.” Yet it is unlikely the government would allow that to happen. Thursfield posits a similar scenario, but with banks being the ones to default. He points out, however, that this would also be “pretty unlikely.” On the bright side, says Thursfield, “it could be a good result and lead to consolidation and then you would have fewer banks going forward.” Mergers and acquisitions just might become more attractive to some of the 52 plus banks operating in the Emirates and possibly pose a long-term solution for the over-banked country. Governor of the UAE’s central bank, Sultan Nasser Al Suwaidi, in mid-January underlined that, “consolidation between banks may provide one of the most effective solutions to face the shocks of the crisis.”
In the most ideal scenario, Madha hopes to “have confidence brought back to the market by an alliance with Abu Dhabi, establishing the financial viability of all businesses in Dubai.” Thursfield claims the best case would be if banks in the UAE could “maintain profitability levels from 2008.” This will, without a doubt, be challenging.
It will take quite some time for banks to fully stabilize, as the long-term effects of the global turmoil take their final shape. Governor Al Suwaidi forecasts credit growth in the country to slow to no more than 10 percent in 2009, after surging more than 50 percent in the year to June 2008. Needless to say, 2009 presents many challenges for the banking sector and depends greatly on how well banks respond to last year’s outcomes.

February 3, 2009 0 comments
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Capitalist Culture

Populism – Dazed by idolatry

by Michael Young February 3, 2009
written by Michael Young

As the carnage in Gaza escalated in January, about the most popular foreign leader in the region was the Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. We might be able to understand the Arab delight when Chavez expelled the Israeli ambassador from his country (as later did his Bolivian counterpart, Juan Evo Morales), but less understandable was why so many Arabs ignored that Chavez is a populist autocrat who not long ago tried to change his country’s constitution to extend his mandate.

The question might seem disingenuous. The obvious answer is that Arabs don’t much care about what Chavez does at home, as long as he stands as a symbol for those issues the peoples of the Middle East consider important: uneasiness with Western capitalism, suspicion of globalization, hostility toward the United States and Israel, and a taste for radical behavior, or at least what can be sold as such abroad. Fair enough. However, the too- frequent Arab attraction to foreign autocrats tells us a great deal about the Arab world itself.
Here we have the region that perhaps most suffers from despotism, that is the most in need of open societies, term-limits on leaders, and lucid alternatives to the visceral aggression underlining populist behavior, and yet whenever its peoples look overseas, they tend to embrace those leaders who in most ways duplicate the behavior of their own oppressors. Instead of a capitalist culture of free markets and free minds, many Arabs will go for the radically chic choice of applauding dictators who irk the West. This was especially visible throughout the Cold War. The notion that America was more popular at the time than it was under George W. Bush is only true in relative terms. Even if America is deeply disliked today, it was never particularly liked two, three, and four decades ago, when Arabs were moved much more by the likes of Fidel Castro and Che Guevara, or by the bevy of post-Stalin Soviet leaders from Nikita Khrushchev to Leonid Brezhnev, then they were moved by the generally duller representatives of Western democracies.
Defenders would say this didn’t diminish the fact that, for many Arabs, such approval was mostly related to parochial concerns. The enemy was Israel between the 1950s and the 1990s, so it was natural to lean in the direction of those who were most antagonistic to Israel’s leading sponsor after the 1960s: the United States. Perhaps, but if that was the case, then this was a remarkable example of how so many people in the Middle East allow their agendas to be shaped by what they are against, rather than what they are for. And this may be one explanation, among others, for why the region ends up being so tolerant of its foul regimes. This was certainly true in Iraq. That the US was responsible for a bloody war and its aftermath is entirely possible. That this could have been avoided had the Bush administration made less of a mess of its postwar policies cannot be denied. But the removal of Saddam was, in and of itself, a necessary step toward any realistic chance of achieving a democratic Iraqi future.
That future may come or it may not come, but under no circumstances could it come while Saddam Hussein was in power. Yet how many Arabs would admit this is true? A tiny minority. For over two decades, since the start of the war against Iran, Saddam was a hero to the Arabs. And if they could once laud the “anti-colonial” posturing of the mad Idi Amin Dada, for example, then we know why they had no problem with a Saddam Hussein. By the same token, if they could stomach a Hafez Assad or a Moammar al-Qadhafi, there was no reason for them not to look with sympathy on places like North Korea and North Vietnam, or to list Chavez today as their favorite foreign leader.
The writers Ian Buruma and Avishai Margalit put their finger on the problem in their essay ‘Occidentalism: The West in the Eyes of Its Enemies’. They wrote of liberal civilization that “[i]t is a threat because its promises of material comfort, individual freedom, and the dignity of unexceptional lives deflate all utopian pretensions.”
Indeed, the populist autocrat has in him the promise and excitement of the boldly unachievable. Many Arabs may never have been convinced that Brezhnev would bring on a bright millennium of justice, even though they sided with the Soviet Union in his day. Yet, somehow they could convince themselves that Castro would move us all closer to it, or Ho Chi Minh, or Chavez today. These all seem to be men of which dreams are made, charismatic men, though their legacies have often been nightmares. The path to utopia is usually paved with repression.
It’s a pity that so many Arabs should still believe in false utopias, but also a sign that when it comes to their own polities, they have nothing to believe in at all.

Michael Young

February 3, 2009 0 comments
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Fortress America in Baghdad

by Paul Cochrane February 3, 2009
written by Paul Cochrane

Opened in the midst of the slaughter in Gaza and the twilight of Bush’s presidency, the new American embassy in Baghdad garnered less coverage than when its astronomical budget was first publicized in 2005.
The opening was more than the completion of the largest and most expensive embassy in the world. It marked the day the US diplomatic corps moved out of Saddam Hussein’s former palace and handed it over to the Iraqi government, five days after US forces officially came under an Iraqi mandate on New Year’s day.
Many Iraqis are eyeing warily the move from one palace to what is essentially an even larger one. The embassy is far grander — albeit minus the gold plated bathroom fixtures — than anything Hussein ever built during his nefarious reign.
It is on a level of Cold War era grandeur, similar in scope to the colossal project Nicolae Ceaucescu attempted in Bucharest, the centerpiece being a palace the Romanian leader wanted to be seen from space.
The 104-acre embassy complex, which is the size of approximately 80 football fields, nearly turned into a similarly sized white elephant as costs ballooned to $700 million and the project taking nearly two years longer than expected. In that time it became a symbol of the quagmire Iraq has become for the US, with no end in sight and costs spiraling upwards. But with the embassy finished and operational, it now represents the most prominent symbol of ‘fortress America’ today and, moreover, that America wants to stay in Iraq for longer than Barak Obama’s presidency will last.
As the International Crisis Group commented in 2006, “the presence of a massive US embassy co-located in the Green Zone with the Iraqi government is seen by Iraqis as an indication of who actually exercises power in their country.”
Visible from space and larger than the Vatican, the embassy draws historical comparisons to the Crusader castles of the middle ages. All that is missing is a crocodile infested moat around the walls.
But secure it certainly is, nestled inside the Green Zone, with a 4.5 meter thick perimeter wall to protect this city within a city that includes a power station, a water treatment plant, schools, restaurants, swimming pools and a shopping area.
With an annual budget of $1.2 billion, the 5,550 Americans and Iraqis working at the embassy — half listed as security — are certainly not roughing it. The residence of the US ambassador to Iraq is 1,500 square meters, while the deputy chief of mission has a “cozy cottage” measuring 900 square meters.
Tough though a posting to Baghdad may be for the diplomats, State Department, FBI, and federal agents that are to work out of the embassy, it is far from the realities of the “red zone” that lies beyond the walls, of power cuts, broken sewage pipes and violence.
That the US needed a secure site is understandable, given the track record of attacks on US embassies. In Beirut, the Americans are in their third embassy in less than 30 years, while the former US embassy in Tehran stands as a memorial to the overthrow of the Shah, and resultantly the American presence in Iran, the walls covered in colorful murals depicting the US as an oppressor, imperialist and warmonger. As Ayatollah Khomeini said in December, 1979: “This place is not to be considered an embassy but rather a ‘spy center’.” Following the US embassy hostage crisis in Tehran, the US had to resort to the somewhat farcical position of operating out of the Swiss embassy.
A drive past other embassies in the region indicates how seriously security is taken, with the Istanbul compound a veritable fortress, as is the one in Amman, with armored personnel carriers lined up outside and reportedly surface- to-air missiles within the sandstone complex.
But as Niccolo Machiavelli points out in the section on fortresses in that Bible of realpolitik, The Prince, “If they are beneficial in one direction, they are harmful in another.” Indeed, despite US ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker saying at the launch that the new embassy is a testimony to America’s commitment to a “long-term friendship with Iraq,” given the US role in the country over the past nearly six years it is hard to see the embassy as a symbol of friendship. Furthermore, with the embassy a fortress, it doesn’t exactly give off the impression of amiability. But that is the Catch-22 situation in which America has placed itself due to its foreign policy decisions over the years in the Middle East. At the same time as presenting itself as a beacon of hope, democracy and freedom to the world, to gain access is akin to entering a maximum-security prison.
As Machiavelli remarked: “So, all things considered, I commend those who erect fortresses and those who do not; and censure anyone who, putting his trust in fortresses, does not mind if he is hated by the people.”

PAUL COCHRANE is a Beirut-based journalist

February 3, 2009 0 comments
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