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The Apprentice

by Executive Editors April 28, 2005
written by Executive Editors

The Lebanese Broadcast Corporation (LBCI & LBC-SAT) has unveiled plans to launch a pan-Arab version of NBC’s hit business TV show The Apprentice, with Dubai substituting New York as the corporate jungle. The 15-part series is scheduled to air in October, a month after the premiere of Showtime and Al-Aquariya’s CEO show, based on a similar concept. The overlap prompted a recent media spat between two of the shows’ hosts, resulting in a communications shutdown by LBC on the subject. “There has been a problem with regards to The Apprentice and we can’t talk about it to the media anymore,” an LBC aide confided.

Yet according to CEO executive producer Ziad Batal from Media Group, the competition will only do the business good. “We welcomed this initiative – the press invented all sorts of animosities between us, when there was none. The Apprentice will help promote more of these shows, which helps everyone’s cause.”

Joining the ever-expanding line of reality TV shows in the Middle East, The Apprentice pits several contestants against each other in a bid to showcase their business savvy. Contestants are teamed up and made to solve a variety of business problems, negotiate deals and manage projects. The losing team of each challenge sees one of its members fired by business mogul Mohamed Ali Alabbar, who hosts the show. The lucky finalist will walk away with a senior $300,000 a year position at Emaar-Dubai, the leading real estate development company in the Middle East, of which Alabbar is the Board Chairman.

A FremantleMedia franchise, the new show follows the growing trend of high expense reality TV shows which have caught on the Middle East. Playing it safe by avoiding cultural sensitivity landmines, such as mixed-gender housing facilities or compromising behavior, the show ought to have little difficulty attracting a profitable sponsorship deal.

Sponsorship contracts for shows such as Star Academy and Superstar average the $4 to $5 million range, whereas CEO has secured a $750,000 deal with its presenting sponsor and $350,000 from its gold sponsors. Added to this are the 30 second advertising slots during airtime, sold on average at $10,000 for the reality shows.

Feltman urges action

Speaking exclusively to Executive before he left for the US, American ambassador to Beirut, Jeffrey Feltman, reiterated his country’s calls for Lebanon to address its World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations and use the recent window of opportunity for positive change to push through the necessary legislative reforms to encourage greater investment opportunities.

In terms of WTO membership, Lebanon has made scant progress. Three of six laws that are prerequisite for accession are still at the council of ministers. Feltman believes that Lebanon must seize the day. “The ball is in Lebanon’s court now; they have to get the framework passed. If momentum continues, then it can be built upon,” he said adding, “Our hope is that ministers in the new government would put their political clout behind the issue.”

The benefits are not insignificant and show that Lebanon genuinely complies with trade standards. “Free trade is important,” said Feltman. “It is a benchmark of trade policy.”

Feltman said that for any future government, fiscal reform and fiscal restructuring of the country is overdue. “New government can’t have continuity of policies from governments that preceded it. Reform is not popular but it is urgent,” he said hinting at greater investment opportunities. “There has been interest in Lebanon at the Department of Commerce and the US Chambers of Commerce, but without reform in the judicial system, a serious initiative to tackle corruption, and IPR as well as improving ICT infrastructure, telecommunications rates, Lebanon will not move forward.”

IPR in particular remains a key bone of contention. Feltman revealed that the US government is currently conducting a review of Generalized System of Preferences privileges and a revocation of these privileges is a possibility, meaning that many Lebanese goods would be lose their duty-free entrance to the US market. “IPR is an issue that Lebanon should be concerned about,” said Feltman. “It is one of the few countries in the world where there has been no strategy to address the problem in the long term.”

VISA

Credit card issuers Visa International have given another thumbs up in their assessment of the Lebanese market. In 2004, usage of Visa-branded credit and debit cards increased by 32% to 11.6 million transactions in total. The company was especially jolly about the fact that Lebanese cardholders had carried out 2.3 million of these transactions in retail spending at Points of Sales (POS).

The accumulative value of transactions was $2.08 billion for 2004, of which $300 million occurred at POS, an increase of 31 % over the previous year. It has been a strategy of the credit card company to strengthen the credit card culture in Lebanon and increasing usage of cards at the from issuer perspective more profitable POS.  

According to Visa International’s general manager for the Levant, Said Shuqom, Visa estimates their share in the Lebanese payment card market at over 50%. Considering that the number of Visa cardholders here has risen to about 553,000 at year-end 2004, this would put the total number of payment cards in the country at about 1 million. However, the numbers provided by Visa also showed that the vast bulk of cards are debit cards, with Visa Electron cards accounting for nearly 437,000 of the total. Full fledged credit cards of different classes under the brand number less than 30,000 and the top-tier segment of Visa Platinum and Business entails precisely 2,812 plastic carriers.

Arab countries, including the Levant, are currently among the fastest growing markets for Visa International. For further growth here, the company banks on increased market segmentation and new technologies, Shuqom said. The company assumed that the turmoil of the past two months had reflected upon the usage of credit cards in Lebanon but would not be able to quantify this impact for several more weeks. In light of the situation, Visa has halted all promotion campaigns and launches of new products for the first six months of 2005, he added.   

MECG

Investment Bank Middle East Capital Group (MECG) and automotive dealers Rymco last month completed a securitization deal representing the first significant act of financial engineering in the period after the assassination of Rafik Hariri. The complex arrangement entailed offering of certificates backed by automobile receivables from Rymco worth slightly over $20 million.

Under the transaction, described by MECG as the largest of its kind in Lebanon, the certificates issued by the investment bank were purchased by eight banks and firms in the financial industry. Certificates were split into a one-year and a two-year tranche with respective annual interest of 6.5% and 7.5%, plus a residual tranche of $8 million, which remains with Rymco and acts as buffer against eventually defaulting car loans as underlying securities.

To the participating banks, the arrangement offers good returns at a low risk while Rymco benefits from improved access to finance and stable cash flow. Rymco intends to implement further securitization increments over the next three to five years for a total value of $75 million. Earlier this year, BEMO Securitization, the investment-banking arm of BEMO bank, had closed a similar offering in collaboration with car dealers Bassoul Hneine.

The transaction also illuminated the cost that the finance industry had to bear under the impact of the Hariri assassination. Walid Mousallam, CEO of MECG, said that the partners in the securitization felt a sense of pride to have successfully completed the arrangement during this difficult period but also revealed that MECG reviewed the program after the assassination. Perceiving a higher short-term risk, the investment bank revised the size of the offering downward, taking it from $30 million to $20 million while significantly increasing the size of the residual tranche as over-collateralization from about 28% of the total to 40%. “It would have been a different deal a month ago,” he said. 

Chateau Makse

Akram Kassatly, owner of Kassatly Chtaura, the man who saw an opportunity for a locally produced alcopop and gave us Buzz, is now focusing on his first love. Investing $1.8 million into Chateau Makse – named after the Bekaa Village where the winery is located – Kassatly, who studied winemaking in Dijon in the late 60s, is joining the ranks of Lebanon’s $27 million wine industry. Expecting to produce 400,000 liters annually (roughly 500,000 bottles) the new winery, will be fulfilling a dream that was cut short in 1974.

“The war forced the company to abandon its winemaking ambitions and focus instead on the more stable concentrated syrups and non-alcoholic products,” explained Nayef Kassatly, Akram’s son, who added that Chateau Makse had already signed contracts with local grape suppliers until its own vines, of which 30 hectares have been planted, are ready for wine production. However, many within the industry say it will not be easy for a new winery, without its own vineyards, to establish itself. “There is huge demand this year. The Egyptians, Jordanians and even the Syrians are all coming to buy our grapes. They are demanding about 500 tons and this is around 25% of the independent grape growers’ harvest,” said one wine maker. “Good quality grapes will come at a premium.”

The winery will initially produce three wines retailing at around LL7,000 each: red, white and rose and, despite a local market dominated by Chateaux Kefraya and Ksara, Kassatly is confident that 50% of the production can compete in domestically, while France, the UK (Lebanese wine’s two biggest importers), the US, Japan and Sweden have all been earmarked as export markets, the penetration of which will be helped by Kassatly’s existing distribution networks. “With our know-how, infrastructure and marketing strategies, we believe the project is very promising in the long term,” he said.

EU pushes for E-commerce

Funded by a €1.7 million EU grant, E-Commerce in Lebanon (Ecomleb) aims to promote e-commerce in Lebanon and to formulate a complete set of laws and decrees necessary to facilitate online business and banking. This legal basket containing 10 draft laws should be ready to be go to parliament by June. “When these laws are passed by parliament,” said project manager Alain Jean, “Lebanon will have the most advanced and coherent legal framework in the Middle East, which puts it years ahead of other countries, such as Egypt, Jordan and Dubai.”

According to Radwan Habli, IT advisor to the ministry of economy, “in normal circumstances,” it will take between three months and a year for parliament to pass the bill. Meanwhile, Ecomleb is promoting the use of e-commerce through conferences, press releases, its quarterly journal and website, as well as a soon to be released CD-Rom on the leading e-commerce activities in the country.

So far, the digital way of doing business has not exactly taken the country by storm. A report published last February by the Beirut-based Stanford Research Institute concluded that: “despite high levels of computer penetration and reasonable degree of adoption and use of the internet, e-commerce is yet to gain ground in Lebanon. By the summer of 2004, only 9% of all Lebanese internet users shopped online.”

However, there are exceptions to the general rule, as companies such as Tripoli’s Hallab Sweets and Khan al Saboun, as well as online travel agency skileb have demonstrated promising results. According to Jean, as Lebanon is a service industry, it is about time the country hops on the bandwagon. “Just look at the figures,” he said. “In the USA, online retail revenues increased by 25% from 2002 to reach $60 billion and is expected to grow by an annual 19% over the next five years. In the EU, companies selling and people buying online has increased dramatically as well.”

(For more information: www.ecomleb.org)

Arak Piracy

Le Brun, arguably Lebanon’s most prestigious commercial arak, has spent $100,000 on a packaging facelift. The move comes after a swift and effective response last year to a rash of fake bottles of Le Brun, which is over 100 years old, that had found their way onto the shelves of small and medium sized outlets. Even though the fake bottles only represented around 10% of Le Brun’s market share and have since been removed by government inspectors, Domaine des Tourelles, the company which owns the Brun label, felt it had to respond to avoid similar instances of brand piracy in the future.

“We have used new glass for our bottles and printed a new label that while the same is harder to copy,” explains Christiane Issa, Domaine des Tourelles’ marketing manager, who added that as of now Le Brun is be responsible for its own off and on-trade distribution of the 75,000 bottles it produces each year at its famous Chtoura distillery. According to Issa, the fakers were not particularly clever: “The capsules (cork covers) were very bad quality, the arak tasted awful and the bar codes were the same for the big bottles as well as the small bottles. Fortunately none were found at the major supermarkets, where there is a more discerning clientele.”

This is not the only example of piracy to hit the $10 million Lebanese arak industry. Massaya, who pioneered the arak revival with their blue bottles, have also reported copies of both their distinctive blue arak bottles and wine in Syria, while during the civil war many of Lebanon’s famous brands were regularly copied and exported, especially to the US, causing confusion among Lebanese exiles seeking solace in Lebanon’s national tipple.

BCD retail

Café’s, shops and restaurants in the Beirut Central District have reported losses of as much as 75% since the death of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on February 14, as demonstrations, strikes and official mourning amounted to eight days of lost business. More importantly, retailers claim, it is the general atmosphere of political and economic insecurity that deters people from going out. “Shopping is the last thing on their minds,” said one shopkeeper, summing up the general mood.

While Sunday afternoons and weekday lunchtimes have seen a relative return to normality, in the evening, the area is like a ghost town. “We are losing more than 50% in sales,” said an employee of Place d’Etoile, the café opposite the clock tower where Hariri and his entourage enjoyed their last coffee.

While all shops and restaurants in the area are suffering, arguably the hardest hit is the Virgin Megatore, which has seen its immediate surroundings sealed off. “Most customers we get these days, are demonstrators who come to use the toilets,” said Virgin’s general manager and chairman Jihad el Murr, who said his shop, at one point one of Lebanon’s best retail performers, had seen a 70% drop in sales since February 14.


Still, he was upbeat. “We do not mind this situation for three months or so,” he said, “especially if it means the political situation changes in a positive way. However, if it is to last longer, then we are forced to take drastic measures, such as laying off employees and reducing opening hours.”

It is not just sales in downtown Beirut that have taken a hit. Hamra Street, normally one of the Beirut’s busiest areas, has also seen a fall-off in trading activity, with shopkeepers reporting a 40% to 70% decreases in sales, while in New Jdeideh, the scene of a car bomb at the end of March, retailers complained of similar losses.

Bhamdoun

Continuing violence and political turmoil in the wake of the February 14 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri have spurred fears that the instability could have disastrous consequences on the economy as a whole and the roughly $1.5 billion summer tourism season in particular. Nowhere is this concern more palpable than in the mountain resort town of Bhamdoun, where tourism is crucial to the local economy. A summer haven for holidaying Gulf Arabs, Bhamdoun has experienced a retail and real estate boom in recent years.

“If there are more explosions, the Gulf Arabs will be frightened and will be driven away from Lebanon, to places like Jordan, Egypt and even Syria,” warned economist Marwan Iskander. That would come as a serious blow to Bhamdoun’s business community, for whom the summer season, according to Iskander, generates about $60 million a year in revenue.

Developer Raffi M. Kaloustian, chairman of Le Baron, which designs and constructs villas and apartments in the Bhamdoun region, acknowledged that his company had put future plans on hold. But he, like many Bhamdoun residents, professionals and officials, stressed that it was too early to say what exactly would happen in the summer, especially given Gulf Arabs’ strong attachment – both personal and financial – to Bhamdoun.

He said he was currently building villas and apartments for 30 clients – all of them Gulf Arabs. “Not one of them has suggested postponing a payment,” he said, “because they believe in this place.”

Kaloustian said that most Gulf Arabs were aware the realities of Lebanese life, a philosophy that saw them visit every summer even when the rest of the world felt it was unsafe. “They expect an eventual boom,” he added, “but they all say: we’ve got to go through a few bombs before we get there.”

BMW

Despite the uncertainly of the previous month, not to mention the added insult of their Ain Mreisseh showroom being damaged by the Hariri blast, automotive dealers Bassoul-Heneine are bullish about future sales. Introducing the new BMW 3 Series in Beirut last month, Bassoul-Heneine general manager Naji Heneine told Executive Magazine, “Until now and depending on the situation, I have not cut my orders.”

For the first month, the BMW dealers had ordered delivery of 43 vehicles of the new 3 Series, to be followed by 30 new cars each month until the end of the year. The new German driving machines, the fifth edition of the 3 Series in 30 years of the brand’s history, will retail in Lebanon starting at $41,000 and top models could go up to over $60,000, Hneine said.

The Beirut event, including ample technical praises, a cinematic overview over the line’s genesis, and presentation of two new vehicles in the conference room at Beirut’s Metropolitan Palace Hotel, was the second launch party for the car in the Middle East and came ahead of events in other, larger markets. According to BMW Group Middle East representative Joerg Kelling, the entire brand sells about 3,000 units per year in Saudi Arabia, 600 in Lebanon and 100 in Syria. 

“Lebanon is a small market in size but it is a very fashionable market. Cars that sell well here also sell well three to six months later in Gulf markets. For me personally, it is also the most exciting market in the region because of the unbelievable appreciation of the brand here,” Kelling said, adding that he is optimistic about the Lebanese market and sees a new and very large potential for BMW in Syria.

April 28, 2005 0 comments
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Special Report

Wheeling In The World’s Medical Tourists

by Peter Speetjens April 24, 2005
written by Peter Speetjens

Overview

The regional health tourism market is worth an estimated $2.5 billion. The current market leader is Jordan, which receives a steady stream of patients, mainly from poorer Arab countries, such as Yemen, Sudan and Egypt. Lebanon has been working hard to position itself to attract high net worth individuals and, since 9/11, has been welcoming an increasing number of Gulf Arabs as hospitals, health and beauty clinics see the numbers of foreign admissions triple in the traditional summer season. Currently, the country attracts en estimated 25,000 foreign nationals who spend anything between $1,000 for a nose job and $25,000 for heart surgery, creating a market worth between $125 million and $250 million.

While, Lebanon’s highly developed medical sector targets mainly fellow Arab countries, there is long term objective to lure European and North America health tourists as health care and insurance costs in those in those parts of the world continue to rise. Lebanon also has the – so far largely untapped – potential of promoting its sea and mountain climate as a health, relaxation and recuperative destination.  It speaks for itself however, that attracting any kind of tourism into the country depends on a healthy political situation.

Definition

In the strictest sense, health tourism can be defined as travel abroad to obtain medical assistance, which in turn can be divided into two categories: essential and non-essential – i.e., open heart surgery or an organ transplant versus dentistry and/or plastic surgery as well as medical check-ups.

In other words, one doesn’t have to be sick to be regarded as a health tourist. Mary Tabacchi, a dietician and teacher at the Cornell’s University School for Health Management, defines health tourism as “any kind of travel to make yourself or a member of the family healthier.” In that sense, health tourism is not just about being cured, but also about preventing possible future illnesses. In fact, the lion share of the global health tourism market is made up of healthy people traveling to spas, meditation centers and fresh mountain air climates.

American websites, such as mindbodytravel.com and healthytravelnet.com, offer among other holidays an aromatherapy retreat in the French Provence, herbal health journeys to the Amazon, Ayurvedic diet trips to India and “a sacred woman’s tour” to Bali, where with lots of yoga and meditation you will be able “to connect to your inner woman.”

Brief history

Although health tourism may have a new age ring, it is by no means a new phenomenon. The ancient Egyptians would travel to the scared oasis of Siwa, just as people living along Lebanon’s coast would travel to take a bath in the temple of Eshmun near Saida. Bath in England and Baden-Baden in Germany have been famous for their thermal springs and spas since Roman times. Countries like Lebanon in the Middle East or Switzerland in Europe, both with alpine settings, have long attracted people with breathing problems.

Why Travel?

First, traveling for healthcare can be a result of a lack of professional care, equipment or expertise in the country of origin. In the Arab world, this is the case in countries such as Yemen and Sudan, both characterized by an underdeveloped medical infrastructure. In richer Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, it is not a lack of equipment that makes people travel to the United States, France or Lebanon, but a lack of topnotch doctors.

Price is another factor that causes health tourism, which is why significant numbers of Canadians and Americans seek medical help in Cuba (see box), which offers state-of-the-art medical equipment and knowledge at a fraction of the price. The same is true for many European countries where the cost of medical care and treatment increases each year, making former communist countries like Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic attractive destinations. Britain’s The Daily Express newspaper reported that a cataract removal costs $4,500 in Britain, $2,250 in France and $345 in India. In Lebanon, it costs $900.

Lebanon and the region

There is no doubt that Lebanon has the potential and capacity to become the region’s leading health center. The country has over 10,000 beds divided over 161 general hospitals and seven university hospitals, most of which are internationally accredited. A direct result of the civil war, in which each faction and confession built its own hospitals and clinics, the country is generally regarded as having an oversupply of beds. What’s more, most hospitals have state-of-the-art equipment with a lower patient ratio than many of the developed western countries. Lebanon has as many open heart surgery facilities, catheterization and lithotripsy centers as Germany and (perhaps even more than) the United States.

Since the oil boom in the early 1970s however, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have invested greatly in their own medical infrastructure, which includes top institutions with the latest equipment, such as the King Fahd Hospital in Riyadh. Jordan is currently the main recipient of Arab health tourists, with the bulk consisting of the some 80,000 Yemenis that seek medical assistance there every year. That part of the sector alone is worth an estimated some $350 million annually.

Last July, Lebanon signed an agreement with the Yemeni government to fly at least part of the health tourists to Lebanese hospitals. However, most experts agree that Lebanon’s competitive edge is not just its infrastructure and equipment, but also its wealth of human resources. The country boasts over 10,000 doctors, most of which are specialists. Some 37% of Lebanon’s doctors graduated from universities in Europe, varying from Moscow to Paris, and 11% from universities in America.

Since 9/11, Lebanon has been receiving an increasing number of Arab patients, who previously mainly traveled to top hospitals in the US. As a result of the general change in political atmosphere in the country as well as the hampering visa process, most Arab health tourists now prefer to come to Lebanon for everything from general check ups and plastic surgery to more complex procedures.

Seeing the potential of Lebanon as a health tourist destination, many projects have been underway to accommodate prospective patients. The newly established Beirut Government University Hospital includes a 50-room hotel for patients and their families, and the soon-to-open 105-bed Clemenceau Medical Center, which is affiliated with the American John Hopkins hospital, especially targets foreign nationals.

The AUH

Established in 1867, the American University Hospital is among the most respected institutions in the country. According to its director, John Rhoder, the Medical Center receives an average of 300 admissions a week, 20 to 30 of which are “foreigners,” mainly Syrians. In the summer, however, the number of genuine foreign admissions doubles, with most patients coming from the Gulf states – mainly, Saudi Arabia – constituting the majority of the health tourism market.

According to Rhoder, people do shop around while trying to find the best surgery for the best price, and even try to bargain down prices. In that sense, it’s a business like any other – not surprisingly, the price of a heart surgery varies between $6,000 in one of the less established medical facilities to some $20,000 in the country’s most well-known institutions.    

Following a well-established American trend, the AUH last year opened the Executive Health and Travel Center (EHTC), which offers a health package specially tailored for executives, top managers and family members from Lebanon and the region. The two-day-program offers a personalized head-to-toe medical examination and lifestyle assessment to prevent illnesses. The patient or client stays in a special hotel-like suite in a separate wing of the general hospital. Depending on the package, prices vary from $1,500 to $4,300. Upon request, the EHTC can also arrange for airline tickets, hotel reservations and even a leisure program.

Plastic surgery

The bulk of foreign health tourists flock to Lebanon to have plastic surgery or other corrective procedures. In the summers of 2004 and 2003, numbers doubled and even tripled, reaching an estimated total of some 4,000 patients. In the past decade alone, the country has seen the number of plastic surgeons rise from less than a dozen to over 60.

One of the main bonuses of coming to Lebanon for elective surgery is, of course, the cheaper prices. In Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states, plastic surgery procedures on average are double the price in Lebanon. A nose job in Lebanon costs between $600 and $1,000, whereas in Riyadh it costs $2,500. Other than the price incentive, privacy is another factor that appeals to health tourists, because generally, people do not want anyone to know they have had corrective surgery.

Marketing

As is the case in Europe, Lebanon is not allowed to advertise medical services. Marketing is done by word of mouth and follows the traditional path of PR through medical conferences and publications. However, the ethical climate is slowly changing. The Clemenceau Medical Center is currently working with Saatchi & Saatchi on an advertisement campaign for the Arab world. The final slogan has not been determined yet, but its theme will be something along the lines of, ‘Why travel thousands of kilometers if you can have the best medical care in Beirut?’ Some other hospitals and plastic surgeons have produced brochures and travel packages, which include visa, hotel stay and surgery for an all-in-one price.

An important role is played by K&M International Health Tourism (KMIHT) based in Hazmieh, which, as the name suggests, promotes Lebanon as a medical care and health destination. KMI is supported by all of the country’s medical orders, as well as the Ministry of Health, which according to owner Khalil Malaeb helps in “opening doors.”

KMI regularly travels alongside ministerial and trade delegations all over the region, such as Yemen. Apart from promoting Lebanon as a health destination, KMIHT operates as a travel agency, establishing alliances with travel agencies in Dubai, Kuwait and Yemen, offering all-inclusive packages including visa, plane ticket, hotel stay and surgery.

Malaeb prides himself on good contacts throughout Lebanon’s medical sector. Who he sends where depends on what the patient can afford and on the medical expertise of the hospital. For example, a bone marrow transplant patient would be sent to Al Makased Hospital, a brain surgery patient to AUH, a hip transplant to Bhannes, AUH or Hotel Dieu, while for a heart surgery patient, there are so many choices available that the budget is the deciding factor.

Box: Maradona & Cuba

Cuba may be regarded as a poor country according to income per capita, yet surprisingly it boasts one of the most developed medical industries in the world. Education, science and health were key themes in developing the country after the revolution in 1959. Though under a strict US embargo, Cuba exported pharmaceuticals, vaccines and biotechnology worth $250 million in 2002 alone.

What’s more, it receives up to 10,000 tourists a year who want to profit from high quality medical care for a relatively low price. People travel to the Caribbean island for a core of medical treatment facilities, yet especially for eye operations, skin treatments and its Multiple Sclerosis and Parkinson’s disease centers, as well as its drug and alcohol addiction recovery programs, which most recently had Diego Maradona as its most famous client. Most patients come from Latin America, which is characterized by an underdeveloped medical infrastructure, while ever-increasing numbers come from the US, Canada and Europe to escape towering medical bills.

April 24, 2005 0 comments
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Special Report

Lebanon’s Tobacco And Alcohol Wars

by Marianne Stigset April 24, 2005
written by Marianne Stigset

Spirits

The Lebanese drink approximately 3.6 million bottles of spirits every year, roughly one liter per person. Dominating the $40 million market with an estimated 43% share is whisky, with 280,000 cases imported into the country in 2004. However, vodka has steadily been gaining ground, growing by an estimated 4% to 5% over the last five years. In 2004, some 33,000 cases were imported into the country, although industry insiders assess this number to be closer to 40,000.

“Lebanon is following a global trend, which has seen increased consumption of wine and vodka,” said Nagi Hmouda, business manager with KFF Food & Beverage, whose brand, Absolute, has witnessed a 25% increase in sales in recent years. “Like RTD [beverages] and beer, vodka is a great entry point to the alcohol category. When people reach the legal drinking age, they want to drink something that will give them the effect of alcohol without the taste. While, their palate isn’t used to the strong taste of scotch or gin, vodka on the other hand is practically tasteless and can be mixed with anything.

The current market leader is Stolichnaya, followed by Absolute, Eristoff and Smirnoff, the four of which cover 85% of the vodka market. However, premium vodka brands such as Stolichnaya Elite and Grey Goose are slowly gaining ground.

Although, whisky accounts for nearly seven times more sales, sales of “regular” whisky – the top five brands are acknowledged to be Johnny Walker Red Label, Dewars, Ballantines, Jim Beam and William Lawson – have been contracting by an estimated 5%, a result of the introduction of the VAT in 2002 and greater competition from Vodka. Deluxe whisky – luxury blends and single malts – represent 15% of the whisky market. Distributors for this highly competitive market are reluctant to reveal figures, but it is clear that Johnny Walker Black Label – almost a national icon – leads the way with an estimated 60% of the market share, followed by Dewars and a resurgent Chivas Regal.

“People are more loyal when it comes to premium brands,” said Carlo Vincenti of the Vincenti Group. 

With over 80% of regular whisky consumption occurring in people’s homes, the whisky wars have been largely focusing on off-trade sales. “The consumer has been spoiled by the sales promotions of regular whisky brands – you have promotions going on virtually 365 days a year,” says Hmouda.

The alcohol sector ranks among the top 10 Lebanese sectors in terms of ad expenditures in 2004 but has witnessed a shift towards greater below-the-line advertising, which now accounts for more than 60% of the ad budgets. “Consumers attach less value to the brand and therefore investment in brand-building is much less than it is supposed to be and promotions have taken a bigger chunk [of the budgets],”admitted Hmouda. “We go for instant gratification: gifts with purchase, goods discounts, trade deals such as volume rebates. It’s a very dynamic category,” said Hmouda. “The margins in the trade are minimal, so the focus is on volume and visibility. We’re trapped now, without these promotions sales would drop. It’s a very unhealthy situation. We are following the textbook marketing approach of not to do.”

Total advertising spending on spirits is estimated at $15 million – $5 to $6 million (all media included) for above-the-line advertising and $8 to $9 million for below-the-line. Whisky takes up the bulk of this, with Diageo spending an estimated $5 million annually to promote Johnny Walker, while Fattal spends $3.5 million on Dewars and Vincenti $1.5 million on William Lawson, one of the biggest movers in recent years.

Beer

The Lebanese drink an average of 4.5 liters per person annually – far less than the Europeans who average 75 liters per year. In a country with a distinct preference for spirits, the beer industry has traditionally played second fiddle and is seen mainly a summer thirst quencher, a trend bore out by the fact that roughly 70% of beer sales occur during this period.

“Beer is much more of refreshment in Lebanon. It is seen as a summer product, for beaches and picnics,” said Ronald Voorn, head of Heineken’s operations in Lebanon, in a recent interview.

Heineken holds over 60% of Lebanon’s $50 million beer market, following its 2002 acquisition of Almaza, the country’s only brewery. The company’s stable now has the bulk of the market’s niches covered through its array of brands, ranging from the lighter, value beer in the form of Almaza and Laziza, to more expensive up-market brands with Heineken, to the stronger beers, with newly launched and competitively-priced Rex.

Approximately 60% of the market is held by local beer, with the remaining 40% going to imports, one third of which are Heineken and Amstel beers. The overall market favorite remains Almaza, responsible for over 40% of all sales. In the imported beer segment, Heineken leads the pack.

In a bid to promote the expansion of the market, the Dutch beer giant is looking into developing new beer products, such as flavored varieties. It also envisages boosting its line of non-alcoholic beers, which currently account for 10% to 15% of the local market, and has benefited from Lebanon’s tourist boom over the last few years, comprising a number of teetotal Arab visitors.

Sadly, recent political events have dealt a blow to the industry and the market witnessed a 35% drop in its February sales. With the political crisis ongoing, Heineken has temporarily put on hold its year-old plan of building a new brewery.

Wine

Wine consumption is on the increase as local tastes dovetail with international drinking habits. Chateaux Kefraya and Ksara dominate the local consumption, forcing many Lebanese producers to seek out export markets. The $27 million local industry is virtually a cottage industry by global standards, but new wineries are opening at a rate of two a year with a new generation of producers offering affordable, eye-catching wines. Local consumption has increased in the last decade and stands at just over a bottle per person. This is not only due to the influence of snazzy new local wines but also to the returning disapora, who have brought with them a modicum of Western “sophistication” and many Lebanese, always anxious to be seen getting it right, are gradually eschewing the once obligatory bottle of luxury-blend whisky in favor of wine with their meals. That said, the day when Lebanon can be called a genuine wine drinking nation, is a long way off.

Annual monitored advertising spending for wine in 2004 was $1.7 million, the bulk of which came from Chateaux Ksara, Kefraya and Domaine Wardy.

Ready-To-Drink

Ready-To-Drink (RTD) beverages made their first entry into the Lebanese market in 2001 with the launch of Bacardi Breezer. Bacardi Breezer and Smirnoff Ice control some 80% to 90% of the total market, with local brands such as Basally Chtaura’s Buzz in third. Following the worldwide craze for the affordable beverages, sales have rocketed, reaching their peak in 2002 with 105,000 cases imported into the country. “It was a category and a brand which was perceived as cool among the younger crowd,” remembered Vincenti. “Kids would drink it at beach parties, at clubs. It hit the market in a big way.”

The craze subsequently stabilized and the market has been declining over the course of the last three years by over 25%, reaching 75,000 cases imported in 2004. Today RTDs hold approximately 11% of the spirits market share in Lebanon, at an estimated value of $255,000. “It’s a high maintenance category, which requires constant product development and innovation, a lot of investment,” said Hmouda. “That being said, it’s also a highly profitable, if you consider the price you pay for the little amount of alcohol that is in it.”

RTDs introduced competition to both the beer and the spirits market, although for the latter, it has also provided a boost. “If RTDs do well, the motherbrand will eventually do well,” Vincenti explains. “Bacardi Breezer has contributed to the promotion of Bacardi rum, which has witnessed a 50% to 60% cumulative increase over the last few years.”

Cigarettes

British and American Tobacco (BAT) estimates the Lebanese cigarette market at roughly $400 million or some 7.5 billion sticks a year. By international standards, Lebanon remains an attractive market for the tobacco industry, combining few anti-tobacco regulations and a lax legislative environment, with high smoking prevalence rates.

Some 56% of the Lebanese smoke, 43% of whom are between 13 and 18, thereby in all likelihood ensuring the tobacco industry a sizeable market for at least another generation. Spurred by the low price of cigarettes (LL1,000 to  LL2,000), the average Lebanese smoker consumes around 3,300 cigarettes a year, or 165 packs.

Market shares between premium – Marlboro, Kent, Gitanes, Viceroy, Gauloises – mid-market – Fine, Rothmans, Craven, Pall Mall, L&M, Royale and budget brands – Brilliant, Winchester, Business Club, Sovereign – are distributed evenly, with each category holding respectively 38%, 25% and 36% of the market, according to a 2003 report by the Altadis tobacco group. 

Imports into the country are dominated by four of the world’s leading transnational tobacco companies, with Philip Morris in the lead at 45%, followed by BAT (29%), Japan Tobacco International (10%) and Altadis (9%). They collectively generate 90% of total tariff revenues reaped by the Regie Libanaise des Tabacs et Tombacs, which has a monopoly on all tobacco imports into the country. Lebanese taxes on cigarette imports reached an all time high in 1999 at 120%, but subsequently dropped to average 60 to 70%. Yet despite apparent favorable market conditions, the Lebanese market may have reached saturation as growth has slowed to around 1.5% since 2001.

“The market is essentially stagnant,” said Naushad Ramoly, head of Corporate and Regulatory Affairs at BAT’s Levant and Yemen operations. There has also been a shift in tastes as more competitively priced local brands – especially Cedars – have increased their market share by 18% since 2000. Others have not fared as well. In the late 90s, 93% of the market was dominated by international brands. By 2003, this share had dropped to 79%. Philip Morris and BAT, who controlled over 85% of the market in 1998. Five years later, they made up less than 50%.

Cedars’ impressive growth places it second in terms of current market share at 19%, behind by Marlboro, with 24%. Battling it out in third place are Winston and Viceroy, with around 13%, followed by Gauloises and Gitanes. Adding to the pressure is a proposed ban on all above- and below-the-line tobacco advertising issued by a group of MPs in May 2004. The ban has yet to be ratified by Parliament and the current political crisis leaves little reason to believe that it will be made effective this year. However, the proposal does indicate that Lebanon’s days as a liberal haven for tobacco advertising could be numbered.

Still, the tobacco sector’s $8 million annual advertising spending is in freefall and has, like alcohol, seen a staggering shift to promotional advertising, with BAT, slaughtering its above-the-line expenditure, once at 75% of its ad budget, to 5% last year.

“Tobacco advertisers have been affected by the economic situation and they don’t care about the reputation of the brand,” Mounir Torbay of the World Federation of Advertisers’ Lebanon Chapter said in a 2004 interview. “That is why media advertising has dropped so drastically. They need the ‘push’ and not the ‘pull’. They want people to buy more, to switch from one brand to another.”

Cigars

Despite its small size, Lebanon ranks as the 5th highest Cuban cigar consumer in the world today. The driving force behind the promotion of this culture has been cigar superemo Mohamed Zeidan, Chairman of the Phoenicia Aer Rianta company, who enjoys a close friendship with Cuba’s President Fidel Castro and has the sole distribution and retail rights for Cuban cigars in Lebanon.

“From being the prerogative of businessmen and politicians, cigar smoking has expanded across the population, now also reaching the younger segments of society,” said Walid Saleh, managing director of the Phoenicia Group. “We engaged in major promotional activities in 1998 to 99, targeting the 22 to 25 age group, so as to educate them and prepare them for when they entered the job market and could afford more upscale brands. Cigars are now enjoyed by a wider age group and have become a product for every occasion.”

The total number of Cuban cigars sold annually on the domestic market and at Beirut Duty Free combined is estimated at four million, of which 35% are sold domestically and 65% at the airport. A major tax hike from 45% to 152% between 1998 and 2000 witnessed an intervention by the Cuban government to appeal for a reduction, and Lebanese authorities subsequently lowered the rates to 60%, where they remain today. The economic recession has had little effect on the market, according to Waleh. “Consumers might go down a notch in brand, buy a Montecristo rather than a Cohiba, but they will continue smoking cigars,” the manager explains. “The idea that the Cuban cigar is a luxury item is an erroneous one – you find cigars for as little as $1, so people can afford to enjoy them.”

The sturdiness of the market’s growth has undoubtedly been assisted by Phoenicia’s successful two-pronged marketing strategy. At Beirut Duty Free, the company opened the largest cigar store in the world. La Casa del Habano offers every brand of Cuban cigars, cigarillos, accessories, a VIP cigar lounge and a walk-in humidor. The unique retail concept paid off, becoming the largest point of sale for Cuban cigars worldwide. While cigars generally account for 1% of an airport duty free outlet’s sales, at Beirut Duty Free, this figure stands at 22-25%, reaching $15 million in annual sales.

On the domestic front, Phoenicia invests $700,000 on predominantly below-the-line marketing. “Our focus is essentially on the on-trade business, to bring direct added value to our clientele,” Waleh explains. “People already know our brands, so there is no need for brand building. What we seek is to increase penetration rate and spending rate.”

Gifts with purchases, promotions teaming up with products such as Cadillac, Ferrari and Glenfiddich, and monthly events held at Lebanon’s leading hotels are but a few of the array of promotional activities the company has engaged in. Its two latest innovations include a Montecristo platinum VISA card, which circumvents strict international anti-tobacco advertising regulations, and a Partagas calling card for travelers at Beirut Airport.

For the record, all 34 Cuban brands are sold in the country today and dominate the market by 98%. The top five most popular cigar brands are Cohiba, Partagas, Romeo y Julieta, Montecristo and Hoyo de Monterrey, all come from the small Caribbean island. Popular cigar sizes were initially Double Coronas and Churchills, but for the last five years, Torpedos, regular Coronas and Robustos have been gaining ground.

April 24, 2005 0 comments
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Real Estate Retrospective

by Anthony Mills April 9, 2005
written by Anthony Mills

Fuelled by the continued influx of Arab nationals and capital, Lebanon’s real estate sector continued to grow in 2004 by an estimated 20%. Solidere had an outstanding year, as the Beirut Central District experienced increased demand for property, while on the retail side, big is beautiful seemed to be the theme as ADMIC braced for the end-of-year launch of its Dora shopping mall, the biggest so far in Lebanon.

Overview 

Key indicators, such as cement sales and the number of construction permits, showed a healthy growth in the construction sector, while the number and value of property transactions increased significantly compared to 2003. Despite a rise in price, cement deliveries amounted to 1.23 million tons during the first half of 2004, an increase of 6.2% compared to the same period in 2003. It should be noted though that part of the increase was due to increased exports to Iraq. The Order of Architects and Engineers reports that construction permits grew from 4 million m2 during the first half of 2003 to 4.3 million m2 in the six months of 2004, which is similar to the tail end of the 90s reconstruction boom.

The geographical distribution of permits shows that Mount Lebanon maintained its 2003 lead as it accounted for 46.4% of the total, followed by the north of Lebanon with 20.2%, South Lebanon with 14.8% and Beirut which witnessed an increase of 4.5% to reach 12.8% of the total. According to Banque Audi data the number of property transaction during the first half of 2004 rose by 7.2% to 51,899 compared to the first half of 2003, while the value of property transactions grew by 27% over the same period to reach LL 1.7 billion. In the third quarter it slowed down to 22%, well above the 15% annual growth recorded in 2003, yet still a far cry from the 30% growth figure of 2002. Beirut maintained the lead in terms of value of properties sold, accounting for 35% of the total, followed by Baabda with 22%, Metn and Mount Lebanon with 15.8% and Kesrwan with 9.8%. The figures confirm that the market was dominated by high-end construction and property transaction, as the increase in the real estate market was largely driven by the Arab investors, who since the events of 9/11, continue to see Lebanon as an alternative home, holiday destination and place to invest.

Most players in the sector observed a relative slowdown by the end of 2004, which they attributed to the events surrounding the presidential elections and the attempted assassination of Marwan Hamade. The departure of Rafik Hariri as prime minister and the loss of his international clout were seen as less of a blow as many Lebanese are still optimistic that he will stage a comeback.

A 2004 report issued by Ramco Real Estate Advisers concluded that Gulf investors bought land worth some $680 million between 2000 and March 2004, noting: “taking into account the additional investment on project development the amount could easily more than double.

In that period a total of no less than 2.3 million m2 of land were sold in 109 major deals. The Arabs’ preferred destinations are the mountains, not too far from Beirut. With this in mind, 38% was bought in Baabda, 27% in Metn and 18% in Aley. Only 1% of all land deals concerned Beirut, which still represented the largest value for the Lebanese economy. Apart from the  controversial Sanine Zenith project, the $1.4 billion, 100 million m2 tourism extravaganza on Mount Sanine, boasting several tourist villages and 5 hotels, as well as 18 ski slopes and a golf course, the two largest purchases of land, 368,723 m2 and 123,492 m2 respectively, were concluded by Kuwaiti investment groups in the region of Qornayel.

Residential: Manhattan on the Mediterranean

Even though most construction permits and land sales centered around Baabda and Metn, the most eye-catching and valuable developments were taking place in Beirut, especially the ongoing seafront development facing the Beirut marina in the BCD. The $200 million Marina residential tower, which will be some 150 meters high, has been half built, while the foundations of the Beirut and Platinum Towers have been laid. Next to the trio, the slightly lower tower of the Four Seasons Hotel is being built. The four high rise buildings represent a total investment of some $600 million and will significantly change Beirut’s façade in the course of 2005 and 2006. With a price tag of $4,000 to $6,000 m/2 the towers’ highly luxurious apartments are arguably the most expensive property currently available in Lebanon. Some 80% of the apartments has already been sold and this seems to be trend for most of the high end residential developments in BCD, including the  Capital Gardens and Saifi II projects, which are due to be built in 2005.

Not surprisingly, Solidere had an excellent year in terms of land sales, helped by an initiative, which encouraged shareholders to sell their stock for a 15% discount on the land. More residential projects and two hotels are slated for the sea front, while the Abu Jamil area is to become a purely residential district. In spring 2004 it was also announced that the $200 million and 155-meter-high Landmark Building Riad el Solh would go ahead, adding to the BCD’s ever changing skyline. As a consequence demand for the price of land has increased, varying between $1,200 m2 inland to some $1,700 m2 on the seafront. Last but not least, after four years of delay and for a reportedly inflated price of some $12 million, Solidere announced that they are about to obtain the necessary permits needed to complete construction of the 100,000 m2 Souqs retail project by 2006.

Downtown Beirut, however, was not the only area to witness significant developments. Contrary to downtown, where 80% of investors and buyers are Gulf Arabs, Ashrafieh remains popular among the Lebanese. New, high-spec apartments are smaller, on average between 250 to 350 m2, and more reasonably priced, on average between $1,700 to $2,500 m2. The same is true for developments in areas such as Ain Mnreiseh, Hamra and Ramlet al Baida.

One of the fastest changing areas in Beirut is no doubt Gemaizeh (see box), while large areas behind the Phoenicia hotel, west of the Damascus road and along at Rue Spears have been cleared. No doubt, these current ghost towns are next in line to see some major developments throughout 2005 and 2006.

Retail: The rise of the mall

2004 was the year of the mall and 2005 will continue to be so. The $120 million ABC Ashrafieh, Lebanon’s first genuine mall opened in November 2003 and went into full gear last year. Apart from its size, the difference between ABC and existing malls, such as Verdun 730 and Dunes, is that the first truly offers a world of shopping, entertainment, food and beverages all under one roof.

Critics had doubted there would be sufficient demand for such a major development, but ABC has proved them wrong. Its 40,000m2 of retail space are fully occupied and shops, restaurants and cinema attract a constant flow of customers. In 2005 however, ABC will have to compete with BHV at Dora. About twice the size of ABC Ashrafieh, BHV is Lebanon’s first mega-mall with under its roof the country’s first Casino hypermarket, a grand department store, shops, boutiques, restaurants, café’s and a cinema. Most experts expect it to do well, seeing its excellent location between the two highways that form Beirut’s northern exit.

With rents of as much as $1,000 per m2 per year, ABC and BHV are among the hottest properties around as far as retail space is concerned. The downtown follows with rental prices varying between $800 and $1,200per m2 per year. Verdun has an average price of some $800 per m2 per year and, as a shopping district, continues to perform steadily. Prices in Hamra vary between $300 m/2 per year at both ends to some $600 for top locations in at the heart of Beirut’s only genuine high street. Following the completion of the restoration works in summer 2004, hopes remain high for Hamra to regain its leading position as shopping district. With its hotels, hospitals, banks, and universities, its history and character, the area has every potential.

In Chiah, the 50,000m2 Beirut Mall should open for business next year. In Sin el Fil, the 14,000m2 Metropolitan Mall is currently being constructed, while at Concorde square the 50,000m2 V5 Mall is planned. In comparison, the V5 will be no less than 20 times bigger than its Dunes counterpart on the other end of Verdun.

The future will tell if there is a demand in Lebanon for such a large quantity of added retail space and if there is still space for the traditional high street such as Hamra and to a lesser extent Verdun. Experts predict that shoppers may tire, after the initial excitement, of indoor shopping. One thing is certain, the increased supply of retail spaces will no doubt lead to a decrease in retail rents, which is an advantage for shopkeepers, and in the end for consumers as well.

Office: smart space sells

No major developments regarding office space took place in 2004. With an average rent of $300 per m2 per year, the BCD remains among the 30 most expensive business districts in the world, which is part of the reason that some 40% of office space in the downtown remains empty. The problem however is not only price-related. Most office space in the BCD does not meet modern international standards, but those that do, such as Atrium and the An Nahar buildings, are performing remarkably well, which is why the construction of Atrium II will begin in 2005.

Tourism: 

Last year, also saw the long awaited opening of the imposing Le Royale in Dbayeh and, following the success of the $10 million Eddé Sands beach resort in Byblos, business tycoon Roger Eddé has big plans for the ancient harbor city. Aiming to attract investment of nearly $5 billion over the next 10 years, Eddé envisions turning Byblos into the Cannes of the Middle East, with a luxury marina, hotels, restaurants spas and health clubs. Most importantly however, was the government’s official approval of the controversial Sanine Zenith project. The $1.4 billion project measures some 100 million m2 of BUA on which it is planned to build several tourist villages and hotels, as well as 18 ski slopes and a golf course.

Box: Gemaizeh

The area changing most rapidly is no doubt Gemaizeh. The old quarter bordering the downtown, which still has a flavor of old Beirut, threatens to become the next Monot, as a string of small cafés, bars, restaurants, boutiques and galleries have recently opened. The revolution began in 2001 with the renovation of the Ahwat Azaz (Glass Café) and French bakery/café Paul, which “made” the corner. In 2004, a dozen more commercial establishments opened and more are expected follow, transforming what used to be a shabby if charming, quarter into arguably the hippest quarter in town.

A handful of residential projects are also in the pipeline, especially on the strip of land bordering the downtown, but also well into the quarter. Following the success of Convivium I and II, developer Kareem Bassil is building a third halfway down the main street towards Electricité du Liban. Apart from its character, one of the main attractions of Gemaizeh was the relatively low prices. That is rapidly changing. The price of land has in some locations risen from less than $400 up to $800 per m2. The rent of retail space has in top locations tripled since the beginning of the year, while asking prices for residential property has increased by 50%, though it remains to be seen if these will be realized.

April 9, 2005 0 comments
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Economy and Finance

by Nicholas Photiades April 9, 2005
written by Nicholas Photiades

Riyadh Bank Posts 26% Growth in 2004 Profits

Riyadh Bank, the second largest Saudi bank, released its 2004 figures featuring a growth of 26% in net income to $533.3 million compared to $424.5 million in 2003. The bank attributed this rise in profits primarily to its increase in capital reaching $1.3 billion through distributing one free share for every four shares owned and $4.8 of annual profits per share. It is to note that Riyadh bank, 29%-owned by the government, has witnessed since 1997 a fast growth in profits due to the strategies and plans undertaken by the bank to develop its services and adapt to all the economic developments on both national and international scales.

NBK Records Net Profits of $515m in 2004

The National Bank of Kuwait (NBK), the country’s largest bank and the top-rated Arab bank, posted net profits of $515 million during 2004, compared to $412 million in 2003. NBK’s CEO explained that the growth in profits was achieved amid a strategy of diversification in the sources of income and prudent risk management besides taking advantage of growth opportunities presented by an improving operating environment. The bank’s total assets reached $19 billion at end 2004, while shareholders’ equity amounted to $2 billion. In turn, NBK’s return on equity (RoE) and return on assets (RoA) stood at 29.9% and 2.73% respectively, among the highest worldwide.

Country Profile: UAE

International rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service, upgraded the United Arab Emirates’ sovereign long-term foreign currency debt ratings to A1. The agency also raised the sovereign’s short-term foreign currency ceiling one grade to Prime-1 and currency issuer rating to A1 from A2. The outlook on these revised ratings was given as stable. The agency cited that the main reason behind this upgrade was UAE’s stellar economic performance in recent years in addition to the continued domestic political stability. Moody’s mentioned in its positive commentary that nominal GDP growth has averaged 11% since 1999 and consumer price inflation has remained very low. To a large extent, economic expansion has been driven by the oil sector, which generates about one third of GDP. However, the non-oil sector has also registered strong growth. The agency concluded that both the fiscal and current account positions remain in significant surplus.

April 9, 2005 0 comments
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Special Section

by Thomas Schellen April 9, 2005
written by Thomas Schellen

In general, the real estate market has not witnessed any changes in prices. It seems on the contrary that many people are now thinking to increase their prices. People believe that prices might shoot up. This is something we are sensing, as we are hearing of more and more commitments of Lebanese living abroad who are willing to come back if the situation improves. This will increase demand for everything. From inquiries we have been receiving after February 14, we noticed that prices are still being maintained by demand. It doesn’t seem that anybody sees this as an opportunity to bargain down prices, which is a very healthy situation.

The retail sector has suffered the most from the upheaval. Whether it is leisure or selling clothes, it is a luxury and people are sticking to their cash in times of hardship. This affects especially the downtown. In a climate of unhappiness people will wait with making new investments into retail space, as will the ones who are buying apartments. It’s normal but I don’t think that this short-term effect will influence the market. All depends on how long the crisis lasts. 40 days can be absorbed. If this crisis lasts one, two, three months, it can easily be absorbed by existing retail tenants. Especially in Lebanon, businesses have to be ready for surprises and a wise business man takes precautions for a temporary difficulty.

In residential real estate and in general, projects that have started are continuing and will not be stopped. Most projects that started in the last years have been pre-sold to 50%, 60%, and 70% prior to completion. These projects will continue, they made their sales, they made their profits. Also in commercial, the rules of the game require pre-lease before starting construction. From practical experience we know that it takes sometimes six months from inquiry until realization of a project.

I don’t think that enough time has passed to see any trend on the real estate market accelerate but we are receiving more inquiries than we had before the current developments. We have gone up from three to four inquiries per week to five or six and sometimes seven, and these are serious inquiries. It is still too early, however, to say what will last, what will continue. If there is demand it will be everywhere and if there is a reduction, it will be everywhere.

One year ago, the biggest buzz in Beirut was over the 100 million square mile Sannine Zenith resort project aiming to transform the barren backside of Mount Sannine into a wonderful world of recreation above the clouds. The project’s sheer dimension, ecological implications and foreign flair of investments stirred up ruckus in public opinion, but even more, it portrayed a golden tourism future for the country. Executive asked Habib Ziadeh, the administrative and financial consultant to Sannine Zenith if the current crisis changed the project’s outlook and where things stand today. 

Habib Ziadeh

Because of the political issues of the day, we are still in a time where nobody is free to talk business. The impact on Sannine Zenith is not yet tangible and we haven’t had enough time to see the consequences on the project. So while views are very subjective now and it is too early to say if the future will be either gloomy or rosy, nobody is panicking. The fundamentals remain in place and are still right. The mountain is still there, the weather is still there, and these are the pillars of the project.

As far as the development of the project, we are in Phase One. We had presented the public with a preliminary master plan [a year ago]. Now we are completing the final master plan, which will take about another month to finalize. This will be followed by another month of working on feasibility and placement issues. In May, we should have some figures.

Lebanon has high flying ambitions for attracting international tenants to base their regional presence in Beirut. Executive asked real estate consultant and broker Michael Dunn, chairman of Michael Dunn & Co, how the market for office space looks today and what scenario could make the country most interesting for foreign companies to locate here.

Michael Dunn

For the moment, there is zero demand. The only area where demand would be strong is for high security compounds with space. In the Beirut area, an isolated building surrounded by a high wall would immediately find a tenant from the diplomatic or corporate side.

In matters of international presence, a lot of companies have been leaving or stopped producing in Lebanon because of the high cost of electricity and similar factors. At the moment, we are losing companies. To attract international firms, I think we need for the whole country to become almost like a free zone. The opportunities are there and Lebanon could boom in a similar way like Hong Kong did in the 1970s. The question is whether the country could implode again. Certain groups want more power. If we can move away from that, all will be happy. We are not there yet, but I am extremely optimistic for the future. 

To assess the level of trust and activity in the real estate sector at the present juncture, Executive inquired about the perspective of a bank on the sector. Elie Azar, marketing manager at Lebanese Canadian Bank, told how the bank is dealing with the issue of housing loans and its own corporate real estate plans.

Elie Azar

We are granting housing loans at a slow pace to evaluate the situation of our customers. A person who wants to invest by buying a house should be relaxed in their decision. envisioning plays a big role in such a decision and at present, this is not the case. For the time being people are focusing on day-to-day problems and no one is pursuing long-term loans such as housing loans. All our own projects are now frozen. We bought nine branches from Al Madina Bank and United Credit Bank, of which we opened three. On the others, we are now waiting for the situation to improve but we are sure and ready to restart all our efforts at the proper time. The bank reflects the genuine impact on the market. All people were shocked by what happened and I think we need the time to restart again. In the US, after 9/11 it took them more than a year to restart. 

I think Lebanon will overcome this current and sad situation of political instability. It will come with free elections and a coherent government. Lebanese, Arab and foreign investors will again be interested in investing in Lebanon. It is true that major projects for residential high rises are concentrated in an area, the hotel district, that is suffering under the current situation too much these days but I am confident that all Lebanese are aware that we must all together be united as our late prime minister, Rafik Hariri, wanted. He was the architect of Lebanon and especially his beloved Beirut. This is why I think that we need time to forgive and forget those who directly or indirectly affected the stability and prosperity of the economic situation in Lebanon by killing the symbol of stability and development.

The Lebanese are now preoccupied with wanting to know the truth about the tragedy. They want stability of the Lebanese Pound and it is very important to have a solution to the current situation by forming a trustworthy government that will lead Lebanon out of this cloudy situation. I think things will soon change, by agreeing on confidence in Lebanon. Syria doesn’t have an alternative to banking in Lebanon and we don’t have any problems with Syrian people. The Syrian customer knows that he is most welcome in Lebanon, we don’t have any problem.

April 9, 2005 0 comments
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Special Section

by Thomas Schellen April 9, 2005
written by Thomas Schellen

In the current crisis, real estate stands out as amazingly stable asset class. While they acknowledge that developers and buyers refrain from immediate investment decisions into new projects, sector experts anticipate at least consistent demand if not increased property prices.

Circumstances, the reasoning goes, do not alter the fundamentals that make Lebanese real estate valuable, the mountains, the climate, the sea, and the country’s attractiveness. “Investing in Lebanon is becoming more than a facility, it is a necessity. Those who are investing here are happy to invest under the freest and most democratic system in the Middle East,” said Raja Makarem of RAMCO real estate advisors.

The mood is noticeably different from two years ago when the market was gloomy. Even though the primary demand drivers then and now are external, namely Arab acquisitions of high-end residential real estate in select areas, the economic recovery of 2003 and 2004 appears to have been as good for confidence in Lebanese real estate as sales of real estate have been good for the economic recovery.

This is important, because real estate development and property transactions are acknowledged as influential ingredients in the makeup of the Lebanese economy. Construction permits and cement deliveries, which both improved markedly in 2003 and continued their upward development with growth by 4.3% and 3% in 2004, rank not for nothing with the nation’s most watched economic indicators. In the hard years of 1999 – 2002, a sluggish real estate sector had gone hand in hand with the recessive trends in the economy.

A continued positive outlook for the worth of immovable assets under present circumstances by the same logic can signify resilience for the Lebanese economy.  Moreover, the durable quality of real estate allows it to function as stabilizer in this difficult period of uncertainty over political changes. To an extent, this could even help in alleviating the fears caused by last month’s vicious attempts to cause instability by planting bombs in parts of the country.

However, it must also be noted that trends in real estate transactions resemble the inertia of a supertanker. They usually accelerate or decelerate slower than many other, faster paced sectors of the economy. Thus price developments may yet quite possibly respond unfavorably if the political quest of this spring were to fade into a persistent crisis of internal security due to foreign attempts to artificially destabilize the country in a bid to keep old power constellations from tumbling down.

The brightest light for an increasingly good real estate market in Lebanon thus lies in the fact that the country’s fundamentals are indicative of long-term peaceful coexistence and leaders of all communities in Lebanon know that they have nothing to gain from organized confrontations with other communities in the nation. What is a real cause for concern in this respect is solely the strong Lebanese tendency to give in to outside influences. 

Of course in the short term, by far not every signal in the market is positive. Beginning with the March 19 and 23 bombings of properties in the two Christian areas New Jdeideh and Kaslik, security concerns have aggravated the situation for retailers. Towards the end of last month, visibly affected areas were the downtown and major shopping malls in the greater Beirut metropolitan conurbation.

The strain on their revenues can make it difficult for tenants of retail and restaurant space who are weak in their reserves to meet their high overheads and leasing obligations. As the past six weeks saw first closures of retail and restaurant outlets in the downtown, it must be remembered, however, that the area has experienced a fairly high rate of tenant turnover throughout the past four years and that individual closure decisions may well have been more related to failure of store and eatery concepts than to the downtown’s undeniable drain in cash flow since 2/14.

Similarly, delays, concept changes or investor pullout from large commercial mall projects are highly unlikely to have been caused by the independence debate of the last few weeks. With at least six major shopping mall projects ranging from recently completed to in-the-pipeline, plus an array of even larger mixed commercial and tourism developments in the planning, industry insiders contend that in case of eventual investor withdrawals announced in the present period, the projects would have already been hampered in the past. The crisis situation would thus be used as a face-saving moment to excuse bowing out of a flawed idea, agreed several experts.   

An essential entity for all assessments of Lebanese real estate is Solidere, which last month seemed to be troubled at least momentarily as far as proceeding with new projects. The souks of Beirut by now give the impression of being the stage for a perennial play of unreliable announcements, after officials of the real estate company had trumpeted in November of 2004 for the umpteenth time that the start of construction for the retail sales space of the project was imminent (in this case for January 2005). But January came and went and a Solidere spokesperson last month told Executive that the promised works on the retail floor space had not yet begun and the company preferred not to discuss this matter for the time being.

Ramco’s Makarem did not see the latest delay in implementing the souks as abnormal, however, reasoning that large commercial projects need to secure tenants before starting construction. Citing restraints created by the laws and practices of commercial representation, he said that big department stores don’t come easily to Beirut and that formulas like those of ABC or Aishti could be more successful models for this environment.

It also bears reminding that Solidere has shown itself as returning to a very decent form in terms of its share prices, which except for the first brief instant remained unfazed throughout the 40 days after the Hariri assassination and entered the Easter holidays at a value of $9 per share. Overall, the performance of Solidere in the past 15 months justified the high assessment that local brokers and financial analysts saw in the stock’s potential.

In the resurging Beirut real estate scene, the city now spots a core of impressive quality, which resonates positively with attractive residential developments in other in other parts of town, such as Ramlet al Baida, Ashrafieh in general and the trendy Gemaizeh quarter in particular. Despite of a few projects where commercial interests, insensitivity to urban context or plain conventionalism in design created buildings that one would rather not see litter the skyline, the Beirut seafront is also gaining a new coherence. Especially around Raouche, where the cityscape had been mired with construction ruins and concrete boxes, eyesores of the sixties and seventies, a different architectural flavor is improving this visual calling card of Lebanon.

If the investment readiness of the Arab clientele and the nation’s expatriates are enhanced by the emergence of an accountable system of governance and newfound political stability, the outlook for real estate in Lebanon could be a strong buy under both investment and living purposes. But one may not forget that investments and projects are literally not more than the sector’s brick and mortar. The soul of Lebanese real estate is the quality of living and it needs to be preserved and even restored by cherishing the country’s communal balance and by finding a hitherto elusive harmony between settlement and nature.   

Supply and demand, local purchasing power and regional interest, have made up only one part of the challenges for the real estate sector. Another, very large bundle of challenges consisted throughout the reconstruction period in administrative red tape, insufficient town planning, and inability to realize a residential housing structure that observes the dignity of lower and middle income groups.

The biggest headache real estate developers in Lebanon have been confessing to in recent years was the bureaucratic hassle. As Beirut developer Jamil Ibrahim once described it, waste of time and money in handling arcane procedures in applying for building permits and any sort of real estate transactions consume over 10 times more effort than necessary. This administrative inefficiency is an obstacle to both local developers and international players that take a closer look at the Lebanese market.  

Much more than the procedural troubles, the disaster of public sector town planning and shortsighted private project planning threatens to impede the future profitability of the real estate market. Scarcity is a leading determinant in the value of real estate. But instead of applying a strategy of controlling quality and supply and thus increase property values, owners and builders all too often lunge after the quick buck without considering the damage they cause their own long-term interests. This private sector orientation towards cheap instant gratification has for the past decades been facilitated by absence of state authority during the war and then (in the reconstruction years until today) by lack of proper town planning and corruption that allowed circumvention of existing laws and regulations.

 As the last two years have demonstrated more than sufficiently, tourism plays a decisive role in the country’s economic future. Superb resort projects and enhancements of the tourism culture not withstanding, better town planning and development policies are absolutely needed if Lebanon wants to draw in tourists from Europe, Japan and the US in addition to its visitors from within the Middle East. Here the national interests of nurturing both tourism and substantial real estate values converge in the need to institute modern building codes and urban planning.

Last but not least, the need for sustainable housing has yet to be answered in Lebanon. The reliance on private sector initiative may be more suited to supply lower and middle-income families with suitable apartments, rather than trying to have the state act as central provider of housing projects, which are globally best known for their tendency to produce deplorable social conditions. But for the time being, the private sector has not yet been able to satisfy that demand. Government incentives for construction of affordable housing, measures to clean up and expedite administrative processes, and radical changes in the town planning agenda are the challenges that have to be met to complete the foundation for a healthy real estate boom in Lebanon.

April 9, 2005 0 comments
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Business

Banking on change

by Michael Young April 1, 2005
written by Michael Young

As demonstrations succeeded one another in the aftermath of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s death, one contradiction became increasingly apparent: while the events were doing little good for the economy, the general feeling of euphoria prevailing seemed to overcome the prospect of an economic collapse, at least in the minds of those opposing the government.

This paradoxical confidence, which should have been undermined by the death of the only man with a chance of taking Lebanon out of what many consider inevitable bankruptcy, has endured. And yet the indicators are hardly reassuring. The tourism industry and real estate sales, both of which bolstered the relative recovery in the economy after 2001, have been on unprofitable standby. According to finance ministry officials, the state is losing some $15 million a day in lost VAT revenues. Every week that politics delay the smooth run of policy is one lost to introducing vital economic reform.

And yet the public mood, for the first time in many years, is positive, even if this is accompanied by concern. The complex ways of economic confidence have been difficult to gauge in postwar Lebanon. In the second half of the 1990s, the expanding debt prompted the World Bank to prepare for a catastrophe scenario in the event the pound collapsed. That didn’t happen, and Bank economists would come to Beirut shaking their heads, ensuring one and all that the financial edifice should have already fallen. Then Hariri pulled another rabbit out of his hat and managed to organize a Paris II conference. This was to his merit, but the funds were soon wasted thanks to government bickering. While there has been some pressure on the pound since Hariri’s death, as well as the removal of funds by Syrian investors, Lebanon for the moment remains within the range of acceptable economic uncertainty. A primary reason is that there is a widespread hope for tomorrow, one resting on the familiar myths long bolstering the Lebanese economy: that once the Syrians depart corruption will end and that large amounts of expatriate money will return, as will young Lebanese in search of new opportunities in their homeland. Like most myths, these have some truth in them, and much wishful thinking. Corruption may decline somewhat, but the Syrians were always part of a chain of larger corruption in Lebanon, as opposed to its main sponsors. Will Lebanese emigrants be tempted to invest more in the economy now that Syrian soldiers have gone? Perhaps, but that shouldn’t detract from the fact that there are relatively few profitable financial ventures existing today to draw the “massive” sums of money the optimists anticipate: the Beirut stock exchange is on life support; labor is relatively expensive when compared to surrounding states; and serious obstacles remain in manufacturing and agriculture.

More promising, perhaps, is the would-be return of young Lebanese, since that comes with an element of idealism that markets often fail to affect, at least in the short term. However, in the long term that idealism will fade if opportunities are short. Lest we forget, when Hariri came to power in late 1992 his presence and the prospect of regional peace encouraged many expatriates to fly home. By the end of the decade, however, many of the prodigal sons and daughters, armed with foreign nationalities from their time overseas, again departed from Lebanon because of the ambient stagnation. That could happen again if the society fails to seize the economic moment in the coming months.

Perhaps the most enduring promise held by the optimists is that, somehow, the Lebanese will benefit from outside help, particularly from the United States. There may be something there. Certainly, the Bush administration has shown an interest in using Lebanon as a showcase for peaceful democratic transition in the Middle East, to contrast with Iraq. While the focus on this appears to have been pressure on Syria to pull its soldiers out, there may be a second ingredient: ensuring that a newly-democratic Lebanon won’t collapse into a devastating pit of debt. And there, the Lebanese may have just found an ally.

The decision of President George W. Bush to name the number-two man at the Pentagon, Paul Wolfowitz, as his candidate for World Bank president was, perhaps, a lucky straw for the numbers crunchers in Beirut. Inasmuch as Wolfowitz is the administration official most wedded to reform in the Arab world, those seeking the Bank’s help in rescheduling Lebanon’s debt may find a willing partner – someone aware that economic resurrection must accompany political independence to make the latter more credible. That said, Wolfowitz’s reported affinity for the anti-corruption drive of his predecessor, James Wolfensohn, may put a damper on things for Lebanese bankers insisting on a sturdy defense of banking secrecy laws. Confidence may prevail in the coming months, delaying bankruptcy. But how much of that difficult-to-measure variable do the Lebanese really have after having expended an inordinate amount in the past decade?

April 1, 2005 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Juggling debt wisely

by Faysal Badran April 1, 2005
written by Faysal Badran

The key to Lebanon’s short term economic future rests with its ability to get on a trajectory of reform and debt management. With the real economy bleeding and GDP expected to shrink this year, the importance of Lebanon’s debt management takes on a primary role, especially since gross public sector debt amounted to the equivalent of 170% of GDP in 2004, a more than three-fold increase over the past decade. Net public debt amounted to the equivalent of just over 160% of GDP in 2004 or around 120% netting out central bank foreign exchange reserves. This represents close to double that of Turkey, and is among the highest of rated credits. Understandably servicing this debt represents a huge drain on the public coffers, and will be a main obstacle to growth.

A bit of history Lebanon has a track record of always meeting its obligations, even in difficult circumstances. The fact that the banking and financial sector has remained at the core of the economy has instilled a strong “willingness to pay”. Paris II did also bring a marked improvement in both the stock and structure of debt: To recap, $2.4 billion in donor funding was provided in the form of 15-year Eurobonds with a 5% coupon and a 5 year grace period; Domestic commercial banks agreed to tender around $3.6 billion in cash and securities in exchange for new longer dated zero-coupon Eurobonds; Banque du Liban (BDL) agreed to cancel debts equivalent to around 10% of GDP, with obligations equivalent to a further 10% of GDP restructured into 15 year Eurobonds with a 4% coupon and a five year grace period; A further $400m in T-bills was restructured into new 5-year instruments, with a 4% coupon. The total value of the debt restructured under the Paris II agreement was some $9.5 billion, with the absolute stock of debt cut, the maturity significantly extended, and the share of market debt also cut.

The problem is that the government has failed to fulfill many of the commitments it made under the Paris-II agreement, particularly with respect to privatization and structural reform. Actual revenues from state asset sales in 2003 amounted to less than one-tenth of the official target, as bickering between the country’s business and political elites stalled key privatizations (e.g. telecoms). Arguably, Lebanon has managed, despite the absence of these privatization revenues, but it has been fortunate in facing a favorable global financing backdrop. International capital markets may no be as forgiving beyond next elections, and hence it is vitally important that state asset sales accelerate. Failure would likely leave the government reliant on rapid real GDP growth, and the maintenance of very high primary surpluses

(which they have thus far failed to achieve). Necessary action

In terms of broader budgetary reform, the government will need to do the following next:

? Streamline the civil service, to reduce the wage drain on the budget. Some progress in this regard has already made, and the wage freeze adopted in 2003 has helped reduce wage cost on the budget.

? Reform, overhaul and streamline the whole taxation system. VAT rates may need to rise and a general system of income tax needs to be introduced.

? Reform the social security system/healthcare system, which remains under-funded and represents a huge drain on the Treasury.

? Reform pensions.

? Reform the energy sector. In particular, the state owned electricity company (EDL), continues to exert a drain on the public purse, equivalent to around 2.5% of GDP. The company has huge debts (over $800 million) and has been heavily impacted by hikes in world fuel prices, which it has been unable to fully pass on to end-users. It has also been a favored target of political fighting and outright theft.

Although the BDL has spent some reserves on defending the currency, and local banks have pushed up interest rates on Lira deposits as incentives for holders to be patient, the BDL and the commercial banks are relatively liquid and could ride out a significant period of low level political instability, albeit a more marked deterioration in the security situation, encouraging significant capital flight from the domestic banking sector, would cause significant stress on the entire system.

From the external debt perspective, Paris II shifted a large part of the public sector debt burden from the domestic to the external sector. As a result the ratio of external debt GDP has continued to rise. Indeed, the ratio of external debt/GDP has more or less doubled since 2000 to stand at around 114% by 2004 and over 300% of exports and good and services. Both ratios are high by international standards, and indeed above levels deemed sustainable; generally a ratio of external debt of 180% is regarded as being at the threshold of sustainability. Paris II did, however, significantly lengthen the maturity of external debt albeit the external debt service ratio still stands at a relatively high level of 20%. A particular problem exists in 2005, with over $3 billion in Eurobond obligations maturing. The government is known to be in discussions with local banks and institutions (holders of 80% of the stock of Eurobonds) and an exchange offer is likely to be agreed.

The chart shows that the banks remain key holders of debt and given their high level of liquidity, and thus ability to take on more debt stock, it is unlikely that the banks will be the factor to pull the rug from underneath the country’s fiscal situation. Again, all this assumes no catastrophic shift in the security situation. The critical situation remains one of confidence. The holding of elections, supervised internationally, and leading the way to a balanced and committed government are pivotal in restoring economic order. As it stands, the country is hostage to unrealistic GDP growth needs. As is seen in the chart, what has added to the fiscal strain has been the weak growth of the real economy.

The ability of the next government to orchestrate a smooth roll over, swap, and rescheduling of debt remains the most vital element to watch for, which is why this government must be credible not only from a popular perspective, but also must have the manpower and vision to convince debt holders that the trajectory of reform and growth initiatives is unshakable. The current environment in global emerging market debt, having turned recently toward slightly more risk aversion and higher yields, will prove challenging for anything other than a strong and representative government. What is clear is that the economic imperative, so dear to Hariri, will need to be the clear focus. This is a tall order, considering another key priority is political reform.

The banking sector is probably the only bright spot in this whole panorama. The banking and financial sector presents both a strength and a weakness for the economy. The sector is huge relative to the size of the economy, with the ratio of banking assets/GDP amounting to over 300%, comparable to service sector/banking hubs such as Hong Kong. The banking sector has traditionally attracted huge inflows from the Middle East region, which, in turn, have been channeled by the banks to fund the government’s huge public debt burden. Officially, non-resident claims on the sector amount to around 20% of assets. However, with a large transitory population it is difficult to draw a clear distinction between residents and non-residents. Actual foreign claims on the banking sector may thus be much larger. Around one-quarter of banks’ portfolio’s comprise public sector debt (over $7bn in Eurobond holdings, and a similar amount in domestic T-bills). The sovereign exposure of the banks is thus high (helped by zero risk weighting attached to sovereign Eurobonds and T-bills), creating a symbiotic relationship between the banks and the Treasury; the banks face a strong incentive to rollover public sector debt or face serious capital losses (as reflected in the Paris-II agreement). Arguably the high ratio of assets/GDP also make the sector much better able to fund a higher nominal level of public sector debt. Generally the sector is better capitalized than its peers in other similarly rated EM credits (capital adequacy is around 20%). The NPL ratio is though high at around 30%, albeit these are relatively well provisioned (NPLs net of provisions stand at around 12%) while the sector is relatively liquid (the ratio of net liquid assets/total assets stands at around 50%). The sector is also currently benefiting from rapid asset growth, with deposits currently rising by around 11% YOY (20% growth in deposits by non-residents). Nevertheless, the sector does present a potentially large contingent liability on the state (equivalent to around 15% of GDP, albeit this is small relative to the existing huge burden of public sector debt). The sector is highly dollarized, with around 70% of deposits and over 80% of loans denominated in foreign currencies. Unlike in Argentina, foreign ownership in the sector is small (less than 10%), although the fact that the sector is highly dependent on deposits made by foreign investors, it is still being propped up by foreign capital. The banks hold the key. Yes, it is crucial for the next elections to be fair, with all the ramifications this will have on confidence, but most crucially, the economy must stabilize. As it stands, if the current international focus continues, and political tensions ease, the economy will need to generate outsized gains in the remainder of the year to avoid a massive crunch on banks and thus the country’s ability to manage and restructure debt obligations. With the spectacular popular protests, what seems clear is that future reforms will have to be built on consensus, and that the political stability will in effect dictate our ability to restructure our obligations, and more importantly, keep funds flowing into the banking system. The loss of Hariri as a point man in pleading the cause for investing in Lebanon will be felt for years to come, but the confidence boost from renewed sovereignty and a vibrant internal debate will play a positive role in avoiding fiscal disasters.

April 1, 2005 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Q & A: Fouad Siniora – Forward thinking

by Executive Staff April 1, 2005
written by Executive Staff

Former finance minister Fouad Siniora has been involved in the shaping of the country’s economic policies for the past 12 years as cabinet member and key right hand man of assassinated former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Although he moved to the top post at Hariri-affiliated Banque Méditerranée at the beginning of 2005, from the day of the assassination Siniora strongly lent his voice to the cause of change. EXECUTIVE asked him about the priorities of the current period, the challenges and opportunities of the future, and the succession of Hariri’s leadership in economic policy making.


Lebanon is situated at a crossroads and the atmosphere in the country is seen as tense. How do you perceive the situation?

First of all, one has to resolve the urgent political issues. This is something very important and I think the opposition made a good deal of progress over the last two weeks of March in terms of achieving the objectives that they have set. This refers [for one thing] to appointing an independent commission, where the decision is being taken by the [UN] Security Council. The government should have taken the initiative – they did not. The decision for ousting the heads of intelligence is also something that the government should have taken. Asking people to oversee the election process, this is something that is also going to happen. The government, in its behavior, has been always late. They are not taking initiative and already they are discredited. What matters now is to hold elections. This is in the interest of all concerned. It is so important to have it done and the opposition is making every effort [to do so]. The most important is to hold the elections and that is something to regenerate the democratic process and the democratic institutions.

What role does the economy play in the moment?

Political events have been shadowing the economic, financial and fiscal issues that are very important. The tragic loss of Mr. Hariri is something so important and with such deep consequences on the economy. That is in no doubt. But on the other hand, with Hariri, as a martyr from his grave, is achieving some of the objectives. Definitely, nobody wished that it would be that way but we have achieved this in terms of a Syrian withdrawal. And I think this by itself will open new windows to the Lebanese economy.

What is the way forward?

What I strongly believe is that the Lebanese economy has great potential and yet is also at great risk. The risks lie in two things. The first is that the economy is lagging behind in the process of adapting to new developments in the region and in the world. When I speak about adapting, this is on all fronts, political, economic, labor, regulations, laws, and the mindset of the people, although Lebanon used to be always a country with a high affinity for change and adaptation. The other risk is the fiscal situation and the debt, which nobody can claim is not a problem. What really matters in this regard is putting the economy on the right track. If you are putting the economy on the right track, you are putting the financial situation on the right track. Repaying the debt – no country repays the debt. What matters is being able to service the debt. This is what I believe.

Besides the risks, do you see an upside?

The opportunity is that Lebanon is a modern democracy and we must regenerate our democratic process. At the same time, the area has great growth potential. Lebanon can really benefit a great deal from that. To do that, we have to go back to a set of reforms. This is not a matter of these reforms having to be complying with ideas coming from outside, not at all. These are locally born ideas. And I think what we have already put into the budget proposal for 2005 for these reforms, is very important. These are not the only ones, they are on the economic scene, but there are political reforms that have to be done to improve accountability, have the democratic process really perform properly and ultimately, proper implementation of the Taif Agreement.

After elections, what are the priorities in economic policy that need to be addressed?

We have to address growth, employment and the fiscal situation. Fiscal stabilization has been a big responsibility of the Hariri years. Under your leadership and direction, the ministry of finance has been successful in pursuing reform, implementing VAT since 2002 and lately increasing fiscal revenue. Does the current situation endanger this progress? What really counts now is to proceed in expediting the process and moving to the next phase, which must first begin with the [Syrian] withdrawal. Mind you, my point of view personally and one I believe shared by many reasonable Lebanese in this is that we have to really be on good terms with Syria. Syria is our neighbor and no matter what happens, nobody can change geography. It is our interest to be on good terms with Syria, because Syria is our gateway to the Arab world. We also have no interest in signing any agreement like the May 17th or anything of that sort because it is not in the interest of Lebanon to do so. On the other hand, we have to really work out with Syria something that we can abide by – a very simple formula, as Hariri once said, set by Bcharra Khoury in the old days, [which held] that Lebanon is not supposed to be a place or a passage for colonialism against Syria. As Hariri said, Lebanon cannot be ruled against Syria but it also cannot be ruled from Syria. This is the arrangement that we have to respect. I think this will lead us to great potential for the development of Syria and of Lebanon.

You mentioned that the Lebanese government has been very slow to implement measures. Would disentanglement of the political processes, meaning reduction of Syrian political involvement in Lebanon and reduction or removal of MOUKHABARAT structures, help to improve public sector governance decisively in the short term?

I think this is going to be very helpful, because it means that each organization will have to concentrate on what it is supposed to do. The MOUKHABARAT, according to the Taif Agreement, should really have worked for military objectives, not against the people, taping their phone calls. They are wasting their time. It would have been a very strong message if the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon had happened without the Hariri assassination. We would have seen the country going places.

How about the impact on Syria? Would it also bring a strong positive effect on Syria?

If I were in the Syrian shoes, yes, I think this is going to be. How are they going to take it; how they are going to deal with it? This is for the Syrians to decide. I am not going to interfere in their business, but I think this is something that can be converted into a new opening, a new opportunity.

What do you think of comparisons and calculations where people come up with numbers, how much we gave, how much they gave, how much they profited, and so forth? Do you have any view on the net balance of the Syrian-Lebanese relationship in those terms?

I think it is very difficult for anybody to say today but I can really tell you that there really is a synergy and it definitely is in the interest of Lebanon and in the interest of Syria to work together and have closer economic relations, not one overriding the other and taking advantage of the other. Syrian labor is very important to Lebanon and people are mistaken when they talk about Syrian labor. I personally have not heard of any situation under which somebody had Syrian labor imposed on him. In the agricultural sector, the basic labor force is Syrian, in the construction sector, the same thing. Lebanon imports cheap labor and Lebanon exports expensive labor.

From a fiscal perspective, does Syrian labor bring about damage to Lebanon?

They are creating value, my friend. I am not in favor of something that is the manipulation of certain things or the interference in many affairs in the country, this is definitely not productive at all; this is destructive. But when you talk about Syrian labor, why don’t you talk about the 100,000 Sri Lankan housemaids? Are you against 300,000 Syrians but not against the 100,000 from Sri Lanka?

How about taxation and work permits for the foreign workers?

If you go to Switzerland, they get labor from France, from Italy, from Spain, or from Portugal and all of them are illegal. Why would you impose taxes on Syrian labor? We can impose taxes, but who is going to eventually pay the taxes – the Lebanese will.

So from the fiscal perspective, would you impose taxation and collecting fees for work permits or would you personally favor a totally open labor environment?

If you want to organize it in terms of simple paperwork, then fine, why not. Nobody is questioning that. But why don’t you ask the same thing between Mexico and the United States? Let’s not concentrate on the side issues instead of the main issues. What we are really complaining about is the interference in political affairs and administrative affairs and everything pertaining to the functioning of the operations in the country. Here, the [Syrian] intelligence is interfering and this is counterproductive and damaging to the economy. Would this be a good time for devaluation of the Lebanese pound, given that the rate of dollarization is high?

It would be counterproductive. You are not gaining anything in terms of reducing your liabilities. You could reduce the debt by a trickle. The benefits, however, are very limited and the costs are very high. I don’t think this is helpful.

Could there be a Paris III and who would be the person to bring the international institutions and donors to the table, now that Mr. Hariri is gone?

I don’t know. It depends on who is going to be the prime minister then. If we wanted to really have a Paris III, we would have to prove to the world that we are serious and are ready to do what is really required so that we can carry on the reforms. We have committed ourselves with the world that we are going to do the reforms and what happened to the contrary was that we did nothing to carry out these reforms. It is high time to realize that the world is not going to do anything for us if we cannot do anything for ourselves. God helps those who help themselves. [Paris II] was an opportunity that was given to us and we abused it and did not take advantage of it.

How do you assess the level of confidence into Lebanon in the last six weeks, in terms of foreign direct investment and other investor sentiments?

There is a feeling of discomfort in the market but everybody is anticipating what really is going to happen in the coming period.

How far did the events of the past six weeks set the country back, one year, two years?

It depends on whether we are going to make a fresh start tomorrow from where we have reached or whether we still continue a process of declining.

Could you put a number on the losses to Lebanon’s GDP?

I don’t think anybody has done that yet. That is something we have to start working on.

You moved into banking after the Hariri government resigned last autumn. Was that an indication that you wanted to leave politics and return into the private sector? If so, are you now reversing that? Would you run for parliament or be aiming for a cabinet post after the elections?

I am not running in the elections; that’s clear.

Would you be willing to follow the call to cabinet, if there is the need for you?

That is premature to discuss now.

Is Mr. Hariri as a visionary and leader totally irreplaceable or can a concerted effort by the Lebanese make up for his loss?

He is definitely irreplaceable, because Hariri is a group of things that developed over the years. It is not something where Hariri goes and you can get somebody [else]. There is no more Hariri, which means a major loss to Lebanon and the Arab world. As a man of his stature, of his qualities and capabilities, he is definitely irreplaceable. Does this mean that we have to stay all day and night in grief? Yes, we have to really express our grief; on the other hand, life has to go on. We have to work and go on. If we can’t achieve everything that Hariri was doing, we have to do everything in our hands and expand on this day-by-day so that we can really deal with the issues in question.

So you see his vision as the basic formula for the future development of Lebanon?

Yes.

You were very close to him and often traveled with him. Do you sometimes sit and think, what if I had been in his car that moment?

Honestly, I wish I had been in his place. In all honesty, I wish I was the man who was killed.

Are you optimistic?

I don’t answer this question as such. I answer it saying we have to work harder. We can achieve but we have to work harder.

April 1, 2005 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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