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Business

Architecture & Design: Spoils of war

by Peter Speetjens October 1, 2004
written by Peter Speetjens

Market in Brief

Lebanon’s architecture and interior design sector is in today’s market, worth an estimated $40 to $45 million. It is an industry driven by fierce competition, where projects are scarce and registered architects – some 6,000 – in abundance. In fact, the value of construction in Lebanon is accounted for by only a handful of, often eye-catching, projects in and around Beirut. The narrow and high-end construction market is served by some twenty architectural firms, which employ a total of some 200 to 400 architects to design and execute most of the projects.

There are three firms that employ about 50 architects and boast a turnover of $5 million or more, followed by a dozen companies employing between 10 and 20 architects with an estimated turnover of $1 to $2 million. Hopes that there would be a boom in the construction and architecture market were resuscitated by the establishment of Solidere in 1995, but by the turn of the century, the market slowed down. Since the infamous events of 9/11, however, both sectors are picking up, as more and more Gulf Arabs have returned to Lebanon, both as tourists and investors, buying land and developing property. Most large hotels and residential projects are in fact developed partly or fully by Arab investors.

The law

To work as an architect in Lebanon, one needs to register with the Lebanese Order of Architects and Engineers and a number of qualifications must be met. Most importantly, one has to be a graduate from an accredited Lebanese or foreign university and must be a holder of the Lebanese nationality for at least 10 years. Interestingly, one also needs to have a clean criminal record. Once registered, one pays an annual fee of some $400 for medical insurance and pension rights. After being registered in the order, an architect needs to obtain a license from the ministry of public works to perform to work in the profession.

A special committee, consisting of members of the Lebanese Order of Architects and Engineers, the university and the ministry of public works and higher education, examines and decides upon the request. There are currently over 5,000 architects who are members of the Lebanese order, as well as some 15,000 civil engineers, 5,000 electric engineers and 5,000 mechanical engineers. But because Tripoli has its own order and not all architects are registered, it is estimated that the number of architects is probably double that number.

Education

There are currently eight accredited Lebanese universities that offer architecture as a major and each year, some 350 to 400 graduates enter the market. Most of them will stay in Lebanon, while others opt for a career in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia. Several of Lebanon’s topnotch universities, most notably ALBA and AUB, offer an education that is also valued abroad. Considering the figures listed above, it is no wonder that many students leave to work in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia or the United States, as soon as they have the chance.

Salaries & Fees

A fresh architect graduate will earn an average salary of some $500 the first year of employment, which will then increase by some 10% a year. Naturally, a top student being drafted by a top bureau will be able to ask for more. The standard fee for an architectural and engineering office is 7% of the project’s construction cost, excluding indirect costs such as permits. The 7% is broken down as follows: 2% for site supervision, 2% is for the work of civil, electrical and mechanical engineers, which leaves 3% for the architect’s fee.

Surprisingly, the bigger the project, the smaller the architect’s fee, relatively. In case of a $200 million project, for example, no developer will accept a percentage based fee and so a lump sum will be agreed upon, which on average amounts to half of the 7%. For a small project, however, the architect will refuse to work for a percentage, as the design of $300,000 villa can be as much work as that of a $30 million office block or hotel.

Residential

The lion share of Lebanon’s residential market is represented by the handful of high rise buildings that are set to appear in the BCD. Facing the marina, the Marine, Platinum and Beirut Towers are being built, while at Riad el Solh Square, the multi-use Landmark Building is set for construction. The combined overall value, including the price of land, is some $700 million.

The towers combine state of the art design, overwhelming luxury and a magnificent view of the sea and mountains and carry a price tag starting at $4,000m2. Still, most of the apartments have been sold mostly to Gulf Arabs. Together with a dozen of other, smaller apartment blocks and luxury hotels, up to $1.5 billion is being poured into the heart of Beirut, making it Lebanon’s hottest property by far.

Most of the buildings in downtown Beirut have been designed by foreign architects, with Spanish architect Ricardo Bofil signed on for the Platinum Tower and French architect Jean Nouvel responsible for the Landmark Building. With an eye on distinctive designs and future value, Solidere prefers so-called signature buildings by famous foreign architects. As a foreign architect is not allowed to work independently in Lebanon, after the initial design is submitted, all executable drawings and details will be taken care of by a local partner. It is for this reason that Bofil is working with Nabil Gholam on the Platinum Tower project, and ERGA group is executing the original French designs of Saifi Village.

Seeing the value of the projects in downtown, most architectural and engineering firms will receive a fixed amount of money, roughly amounting to 3% of construction costs. Other than in downtown Beirut, several high-end residential projects are being built in Verdun, Ramlet al Baida, Ashrafieh and Ras Beirut.

Generally, the further you move out of Beirut’s inner circle and its direct surroundings, the smaller and less valuable the projects being executed. The lower-end of the market for affordable middle class apartments with a price of $250 to $500m2 is virtually stagnant, which is partly due to the fact that the price of sand, cement and steel has doubled over the last few years, while government subsidies for social housing projects are non existent.

The result is a dozen of very expensive residential apartment projects that represent the main value of the overall market and that are generally being executed by a dozen or two high profile companies. The near future of lucrative residential buildings lies in the mountains, said one architect, where more and more new villas of Arab investors will appear. The real money however, he added, is to be made in Dubai and Qatar, not in Lebanon.

Hotels

The market for design and construction of hotels in Lebanon is similar to that of the residential sector. The $140 million Mövenpick hotel and $100 million Four Seasons Hotel are both Saudi investments, the new $70 million Summerland Hotel and the proposed $125 million effort to rebuild the Hilton Hotel are combined Saudi-Lebanese investments, while the Metropolitan Hotel was built by the Dubai-based Habtoor Group. Most of the newly built hotels in the Aley-Bhamdoun area are also partly or fully foreign investments.

Responsible for hotel designs and execution of those designs are both local and foreign architects. For example, the “white waves” design of the Mövenpick Hotel, which was built over an already existing concrete structure, was largely designed by the ERGA group. The project’s overall price was $140 million, including the price of land. Construction costs roughly amounted to some $70 million, including the pools and a marina. The hotel itself, excluding interior design, cost some $20 million, for which the combined fee for architects, engineers and site supervision amounted to an estimated $600,000.

Offices

The market for the construction of office buildings is largely non-existent. With up to 60% of the offices in downtown Beirut remaining empty, there is just too little demand. The AN NAHAR building was one of the last major office blocks to appear in Beirut. It cost only $12 million to construct, as the design was kept extremely simple and functional, using only the most basic materials and leaving the interior design for the client to handle, which is why, on the third floor, pipes and cables are seen sticking out of the walls.

The building was designed by Pierre Khoury – who also signed on the ESCWA building and BLOM headquarters facing Commodore Square – for a lump fee of an estimated $100,000. Concerning the state of the market, it is significant to note that Khoury’s firm, which employs 15 architects, is also responsible for the design of Park View in the BCD. Originally, Park View was to become an office building, but it now will serve as a residential tower, with high-end luxury apartments, most of which have been already sold. Individual office buildings are being built, especially for banks, but as far as the overall market is concerned, most architects agree that it is absolutely essential for the downtown SOUQS projects to be completed, as it is hoped that the area will serve as a major catalyst to developing the surrounding office space.

Architecture and economics

Unfortunately, Lebanon generally does not have a lot of good architecture, which presents not just a problem from an aesthetic, but economics point of view as well. Bad architecture costs money, certainly in the long run. Take, for example, the overwhelming majority of apartment blocks that are just concrete boxes put on top of each other. They pop up everywhere in the country, spoiling the view and natural beauty, which – increasingly scarce – represent an increasing economic value. What’s more, many of the buildings are badly constructed, not able to withstand the withering effects of time let alone an earthquake, as contractors aim to save money by using less steel.

Then there are the office buildings that have been erected to emulate the predominantly glass structures in Dubai. Most architects agree that this is very suitable building style for colder countries, as the glass helps heat up buildings and thus saves money. In the Middle East however, the opposite is true. With the sun blasting over 10 hours a day, the building becomes a glass house, causing electricity bills to skyrocket because of the constantly running ACs.

Another major problem is the absolute lack of urban planning in the country. Basically, anyone can build anything anywhere: today, you have a view over the Mediterranean Sea, tomorrow it’s blocked by another building, while parks are virtually non existent. The only town in Lebanon that does have a policy of urban planning is Deir al Qamar, where Fadi Chiniara has formulated for free a set of basic rules that every new building needs to meet to get a construction permit – including requirements for height, roof and façade – to keep the town’s traditional character intact. With an eye on tourism, it will be no doubt a policy that pays off, certainly in the long run, which is part of the reason why Walid Jumblatt has approached Chiniara to do something similar for the Chouf.

INTERIOR DESIGN

It is impossible to indicate the value of the interior design market, as there is no regulatory body and basically anyone can work as an interior designer. As a general rule, the client indicates how much they want to spend on the interior of their home, hotel, shop or restaurant. Depending on the choice of material and luxury, the average price to execute a design varies between $500 and $1,200m2, which includes all accessories, such as furniture, tiles and carpets.

The initial design will cost some 10% of the interior’s overall cost, while the designer or architect responsible for the execution of the design will charge another 8% to 12%. Rumor has it that the future 3,000m2 interior of a Saudi official will cost no less than $500,000. The market leader of interior design in Lebanon is Cercle Hitti.

Its interior design department, led by Dory Hitti, employs some 15 interior architects and designers. It signs for both design and execution, yet not necessarily in the same package. The lion share of Cercle Hitti’s designs concern residential buildings, but the company does the interior of offices, showrooms, restaurants and hotels as well. Some of its notable clients are the Sheraton Coral Beach and Heliopolis Hotel.

The big advantage of Cercle Hitti is that the company also sells furniture, beds and lamps, which allows it to offer the client a package deal. Some of the other well-known designers operating in the market are Jean Luc Mengi and Dada, who do more classical interiors for mainly wealthy Lebanese and Arab clients, while Rony Fatte and Galal Mahmoud specialize in more modern designs.

Unlike the Lebanese Order of Architects and Engineers, there is no official regulating and protective body for interior designers. Working with an unreliable designer, qualified or not, can be costly; there are known cases of designers selling clients fake art works and antiques, or selling them for highly inflated prices.

 

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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Asking the experts for advice

by Thomas Schellen October 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Volatile times bring out the best virtues of proper financial planning. That’s why to ensure that an investment pays off, one must get smart advice on products that meet an investor’s needs, paired with sound guidance in overall portfolio allocation and backed by thorough contextual research. But before committing to a relationship with a top finance house in volatile times – which appears a permanent condition in Lebanon for now – the investor is increasingly asking for information on what the experts are thinking. Around the world, brokerage firms and asset management experts indulge those requests by producing – carefully non-committal, of course – investment advice columns, market outlooks, and research highlights. So that being the case, why would the larger share of capable investment counselors in Beirut respond to an inquiry into the general direction of their advice over the coming six to 12 months with “I refuse to answer that question”?

Tailoring advice

Well, first because there is no one-size-fits-all piece of investment advice. To draw up a real portfolio one needs to tailor it to the situation of the client, the experts contend.

Not only the income situation but also personal need, age, gender, family situation, occupation, market knowledge, risk aversion and perception of local risk all must be taken into the equation, said the chairman of Financial Funds Advisors, Jean Riachi. “It is a very complex analysis that needs to be done on every person.”

This would explain why good investment advice can contribute as much to a person’s financial peace of mind as a bespoke suit can do for his appearance. It also reveals how client psychology is at least as important to financial services as economic occurrences are. Two individuals with the exact same profile on income and personal situation, in theory, should have the same portfolio. But, if one is experienced in investing in mutual funds while the other isn’t, “in reality, they should not have the same portfolio because their risk perception is not the same. If someone has never invested, he is likely to panic at the first drop and people get out of mutual funds if they are disappointed during a very short period – even though we tell them at the beginning that they should have a long-term approach,” Riachi said.

That speaks volumes about how young the relationship between the Lebanese and modern investment tools really is. In the past decade of a newly materialized post-war investor landscape in the country, financial institutions had to juggle the universal expectations and disappointments of their clients in context of a situation where these, often inexperienced, clients had to deal with either distant markets or very immature local investment environments.


Maturing investor confidence

For the financial firms, this evolution thus involved their share of conflict experiences, where disgruntled clients showed their mastery in the rituals of blaming others. But while it appears still common practice among local financial firms to guide overenthusiastic or excessively self-confident clients discreetly into the direction they should move without letting them feel that they are being nudged along, the brokers and traders also agree that the maturity of Lebanese investors has increased substantially.

It is refreshing then, that a few experts would volunteer some general advice for investor directional thinking over the coming six to 12 months. Arab Finance Investment House general manager Jamil Jaroudi, taking the perspective of SHARI’A-compliant advice, suggested that a good portfolio for investments in Lebanon could allocate 20% to 30% to productive real estate, 20% to 30% to liquid assets, 20% to Mourabaha trade finance paper and 20% to industry or agro-industry. In line with the assessments by international ratings agencies, one could not advise clients to keep all their money in Lebanon, offered the head of capital markets at Fidus, Nicolas Sawan. “A conservative client could keep 20% of his bonds in Lebanon and the remainder in investment-grade bonds,” he said.

In geographic allocation, a conservative investor today should not keep more than 50% of his total wealth in Lebanon, whereas an aggressive one could go up to 80%, Sawan suggested, and in asset allocation, fixed income and funds could account for 40% to 50% of a sound portfolio, equity markets 40% and the rest in cash. US markets, still appearing bullish in the longer term, could open some opportunities for traders, with some volatility towards the end of the year. Capital-guaranteed funds should benefit from the rising interest rate environment allowing fund managers to achieve higher returns in coming months, and for gold, the Fidus manager sees a bullish cycle operating, with an upward outlook in the longer term. His highest bet is on oil prices. The price of $70 per barrel is, he predicts, meaning investors favoring the taking of risks in the futures market could buy oil futures. According to Sawan, the best performing fund at Fidus was the Societé Générale International SICAW Fund. Managed by SoGen asset management, it achieved increases of 42% in 2003 and 6% this year. The broadest consensus the Beirut financial experts share in their outlook on the local market seems to be that tourism related and other productive real estate investments are a definite buy recommendation in Lebanon either through funds or direct project participation, while the equity and securities market at the Beirut Stock Exchange for many is a ‘not yet’ – which is actually better than the essential doubts some traders voiced on the BSE’s role two or three years ago. In this context, one important hopeful sign for greater public sector readiness to support the growth of the BSE is last month’s decision to list two of the eurobonds. Experts hailed the first-time listing of sovereign bonds on the exchange as a move towards making the BSE a more interesting place.

Nonetheless, the trading of securities still may have a ways to go before it can attract all potential issuers of funds on the local market. The Middle East Capital Group, which was a strong driver in listing banks on the BSE in the 90s, today would not in principle reject the idea of listing funds on the BSE. “Why not?” the firm’s new CEO, Walid Mousallam, told EXECUTIVE in his first interview with a Lebanese publication. But for the time being, he is not considering it, as MECG is currently able to structure their funds in the way they want and which makes sense for the firm. “We don’t see the need and we don’t see the benefits,” he said. “It would help the BSE but you don’t do these things unless you see the benefits of doing them. Taking such steps needs more market rationale.”

Controlled optimism

For Bank of Beirut, the sole private sector issuer to list funds on the BSE in the past two years, the rationale exists and has already worked, said Najib Semaan, Bank of Beirut assistant general manager in charge of treasury. “The BSE should be activated for listing more funds, bonds, and securities markets instruments. We have several funds listed on the BSE,” he explained. “In the past, we priced them by ourselves but there is always a bias if you price your own products, even as we always had the net asset value under control of an external auditor. For this reason, we took most of our fixed-income funds to the BSE.”

Lebanese investors hungry to be active participants in financial markets will continue to think and access in international terms. As controlled optimism about the local market potential is an increasing note of consensus among Beirut’s financial experts, local investors may, however, also benefit surprisingly from thinking domestic openings in the coming six to 12 months.

SUCCESS OF FUND RESULTS IN REPLICATIONBank of Beirut is so satisfied with the performance of its funds that it will issue another fund before the end of the year. The bank revealed to Executive that it is in the final stages of preparing the launch of Beirut Income Fund II, which will succeed the dollar-denominated Beirut Income Fund. “This is the first time that we replicate a fund due to success,” said Michel Chikhani, head of the BoB asset management department. After diagnosing a market need for better-managed local investment products, Bank of Beirut started in 1997 to work on developing their asset management and devoted two years of effort to preparing for client activities. When the bank introduced their first Beirut Income Fund in December 2000, initial investor appetite came from some 200 persons. As BoB developed their funds portfolio, which today spans four listed and three unlisted funds, this participation increased over the last four years to over 3,000 investors, 70% of which are resident or expatriate Lebanese.

The funds are based on a range of securities including Lebanese eurobonds and Treasury Bills, Certificate of Deposits, income securities by domestic banks, time deposits and fixed income instruments. Four out of the seven investment funds managed by Bank of Beirut are listed on the BSE, namely the Beirut Lira Fund, Beirut Interbank Fund, Beirut Golden Income Fund, and Beirut Global Income Fund. BoB collaborated with First National Bank in the creation of two of its funds.

According to Chikhani, Bank of Beirut approaches the subject of investment funds under the maxim of working to diminish risk associated with underlying assets while allowing for increased liquidity and securing improved returns for investors. Since most investors are oriented heavily toward the short term, the bank sees no obstacle to its funds business in the fact that current legislation limits funds to five years in duration.

“On average, our dollar and Lebanese Lira denominated funds have outperformed deposit rates by 3% to 4% and outperformed underlying assets by 1.5% to 2% on an annual basis from their launch,” Chikani said.
 

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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Venture capital in Lebanon stays hidden

by Nicolas Photiades October 1, 2004
written by Nicolas Photiades

If only every great idea could guarantee a swarm of investors knocking at your door. But the harsh reality is that, even after going through all the right motions (from hammering the fantastic idea into a solid business plan and assembling a capable team), entrepreneurs and growth-minded companies customarily face their greatest difficulties in attracting capital. And although nobody doubts that there is a shortage of liquidity in the country, most would-be business tycoons find that start-up money is even scarcer in Lebanon. Simply put, venture capital, for all those who are still asking themselves, refers to any investment in private and unlisted companies. Real venture capital is the investing in start-up and early stage companies. In Europe and North America, venture capital has long reached middle age, with the number of transactions being now levelled out. Once the domain of both little and big players, venture capital has become increasingly dominated by the mega financial institutions, such as global banks, insurance companies and giant pension funds, which all work through specialist business units or subsidiaries. Even in places like Western Europe, it is rare to see successful independent firms, which have been able to raise large amounts of money for venture capital purposes. Although the technology bubble of the late 1990s saw a resurgence of independent venture capital firms, most have now died a violent death or are dominated by the mega financial groups.

In Lebanon, we are light years from achieving what Europe and North America achieved. While the West has used the venture capital tool to grow itself out of recession and debt traps, we in the land of the cedar are still cogitating about the true meaning of venture capital. True, there were some speeches by senior bankers towards the late 1990s to early 2000s, which preached the necessity to establish venture capital funds in Lebanon, but nothing came out of it. Just talk, while our young entrepreneurs are still facing the limited choice of either emigrating to greener pastures or, worse, facing the local banks and their deadly corporate loans. Indeed, at the moment, most private sector firms, whether they are start-ups or established institutions are suffering from expensive over leverage, which is draining most (sometimes more) of their cash flow.

The current situation

Some attempts were made in the mid to latter part of the 1990s to provide the Lebanese economy with a financing alternative to classical banking. The European Union, the European Investment Bank, the World Bank, etc, all provided the local banks with funding to be directed specifically to emerging and start-up companies. These supranational loans were however, always small in size and did not really benefit the end-users (start-ups, etc.) as the banks often misused these funds and allocated them to other sectors. Moreover, the banks never really concentrated their efforts on asking the above mentioned supranational entities for funding to support venture capital, and rather concentrated on asking for funds in order to develop retail and consumer banking.
 

At one stage, some Lebanese financiers and bankers did decide to take the bull by the horn and established independent and proprietary venture capital/private equity funds, such as the Lebanon Fund, launched by Lebanon Invest, which got listed on the Beirut Stock Exchange. Banque Audi also followed the venture capital and private equity path by using its own money to invest in start ups and private equity. These investments were made via a holding company that is still wholly owned by the bank. Middle East Capital Group, another local investment bank also used its capital to carry out some venture capital and private equity investments in Lebanon and the rest of the region. However, these funds never really got 100% engaged in venture capital and rather concentrated on private equity, which is more investments in existing companies that needed to be turned around, restructured or have their operational and strategic direction changed, rather than seed money investments for start-up and early stage companies. Moreover, the cost structure of these funds was always high since the start and significantly affected their performance. Such a lackluster profitability from the part of the venture capital pioneers was a major discouraging factor to other banks and investors, which did not see venture capital as an interesting revenue diversification or investment option.

All these attempts to go into venture capital have been commendable for a small market such as Lebanon, which was just coming out from a twenty years glitch in terms of financial innovation, but is still largely insufficient. For new companies and entire sectors to emerge, boosting as a result the economy, a strong and diversified venture capital industry must be developed and set up. This can only be done with the goodwill and commitment of private Lebanese and Arab investors, which would see a developed venture capital financial sector as one of the ways of boosting the legendary entrepreneurial spirit of the Lebanese, whilst growing the local economy out of a debt and stagnation trap.

Where to go for funding

For the moment, the best way for young entrepreneurs to finance their new venture is to visit their local bank and ask for a Kafalat guaranteed loan. Kafalat is a government-owned sort of insurance company that guarantees bank loans for venture capital purposes. The cost varies from loan to loan, but is generally lower than the cost on a straight loan from the bank to the entrepreneur. It is worth noting however, that few banks would directly lend money to the entrepreneur without a Kafalat guarantee anyway, and given the relatively small size of Kafalat, the number of loans such an institution is ready to guarantee is generally small. Kafalat-guaranteed loans have a ceiling of around $200,000 and automatically exclude new ventures or start-ups needing more than this amount, such as technology oriented ventures, which are capital intensive and need more than $200,000 to build up a solid starting base.

The Islamic Angle

Another funding source for young Lebanese entrepreneurs is Islamic finance. Islamic banks are mostly engaged in financing products such as MUDARABA (trust financing) and MUSHARAKA, (venture capital financing), which are equivalent to participation transactions. MUDARABA is a form of partnership where one side provides only capital and the other only labor and entrepreneurial skills, while MUSHARAKA is a partnership contract where both parties provide capital towards the financing of a project or a venture. Most small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in the Arab world, more particularly in the Gulf region, are actively seeking to finance their business through capital participation and profit and loss sharing, making Islamic finance in the form of MUSHARAKA or MUDARABA quite attractive.

Most SMEs and start ups in Lebanon and the Middle East can only rely on their weak cash flow to grow organically and cannot have access to outside capital. Their only chance for external capital growth would come in the forms of independent private investments, Islamic banking, or venture capital and private equity funds. While private investors are very selective and only look for investments with established track records (in other words, venture capital is not an option) and venture capital funds do not really exceed the number of fingers on two hands throughout the Arab region, Islamic banking, through its business nature and the SHARI’A rules governing it, is the only serious funding source for start ups and emerging companies.

Basle II compliance

Islamic banks are not yet covered by the new Basel II banking regulations and are subject to a less stringent regulatory regime. Very often, Islamic banks are established under laws specifically designed for them and their regulatory requirements are less detailed and constraining than those with which conventional banks must comply. Such a regulatory environment allows Islamic banks to have a competitive edge over conventional banks, which will soon have to comply with Basel II regulations. The latter make venture capital investments very costly and onerous for conventional banks, which will have to apply a risk weighting of 150% from 2007, the date the new Basel II capital regulations are applied throughout the world. In other words, if a conventional bank invested $1 million worth of assets in venture capital, it would have to set aside at least $120,000 of capital.

With the advent of Basel II, the slim hope of seeing conventional banks getting involved in venture capital is slowly dimming away. However, a whole new market is opening up for Islamic banks, which will be able to diversify and expand their MUSHARAKA and MUDARABA activities, with little competition. For the moment, Islamic banks concentrate mostly on MURABAHA, which is the largest category of development-related financing and the most common form of SHARI’A-compliant short-term financing employed by Islamic financial institutions. It is undertaken by the bank purchasing specific goods at the order of the ultimate buyer and simultaneously selling them to that buyer on a cost-plus basis.

With the venture capital market freeing up from conventional competition, Islamic banks will have the possibility of diversifying their assets and of getting rid of their concentration problem. The latter has been the main characteristic of Islamic banks over the last ten years, and can only be solved with the creation of new markets, such as Lebanon, and the hiring of venture capital experts, whose job will be to boost the MUSHARAKA and MUDARABA parts of the business.

Lebanon is going in the right direction with the establishment of the first Islamic institutions in recent months. What is now needed is for the opening of branches or subsidiaries of large Islamic financial institutions such as Kuwait Finance House, Al Rajhi of Saudi Arabia, Dubai Islamic Bank, etc, in Beirut. Such power houses would have a major positive effect on the local economy and would fill an important gap left by the local conventional banks, which is that of venture capital financing.

Venture capital has worked wonders in the West and has boosted moribund economies to prosperity in less than a decade. The US and Western Europe have rightly relied on the patriotic feelings and national commitment of their institutional and individual investors to fund a nascent venture capital sector. The outcome of such an investment gamble has paid off, as the beneficiaries of venture capital funding have repaid their faith in a major way, as the value of transactions in the buy-out, start-up and early stage markets more than quadrupled in less than ten years in Europe (between 1986 and 1995). What is urgently needed in Lebanon is for our individual investors to emulate their Western peers and place some more faith into the capabilities of their young entrepreneurs. The massive arrival in Lebanon of Islamic banking would provide the institutional investor base for both venture capital and private equity.

(BOX) How do banks finance their own expansion?

The capital needs of banks in Lebanon vary significantly from one bank to another. The twenty largest banks in the country are generally able to attract external capital more easily than their smaller peers, which are struggling to look more attractive to potential capital suitors. The larger banks’ better financial performance, more solid track record and qualitative aspects make it more attractive for a regional individual investor to provide them with fresh capital injections. In recent months, a few large local banks have been able to lure Arab and Lebanese individual investors into their capital, with the most recent example being Banque Libano-Française (BLF), which had to replace its majority shareholder, Crédit Agricole of France, with a regional investor. Replacing a Western financial group with another is virtually impossible at the moment, as the Lebanese market is too small and risky to attract any strategic institutional investor from Europe or North America.

For the smaller banks, which fall below the largest twenty in terms of total assets, raising capital externally is a tall order. Although, some, such as Banque BEMO, have succeeded in recent years, this was only due to a healthy qualitative and quantitative performance, as well as to a clear strategy of maintaining a certain optimum size. Such attributes are always likely to attract external regional investors, who have become increasingly picky in recent years, and who have steered away from the majority of the thirty smaller banks in the country. The latter have not really reached the level of attractiveness required for external capital financing.

However, banks in Lebanon have shown significant resourcefulness as regards to capital raising. Most have relied on the good years in the last decade to grow organically (internally), whilst some have taken advantage of favorable market conditions to carry out Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and list on the Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE). The current stagnation of local and international equity capital markets for emerging market banks has led some Lebanese banks to resort to issuing preferred shares (a hybrid of debt and equity), in US dollars and carrying a high dividend/interest rate. These issues have been mostly placed with the banks’ customers.

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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Q&A: Omar Razzaz, World Bank country manager for Lebanon

by Executive Contributor October 1, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

In September the World Bank issued its annual report Doing BUSINESS IN 2005: REMOVING OBSTACLES TO GROWTH, co-sponsored by the International Finance Corporation, the private sector lending arm of the World Bank Group. The report examines investment climates around the world, based on the regulatory performance and reforms undertaken in 145 nations. Comparing data and showcasing examples of best practice, the report demonstrates how governments can create a better business environment, which benefits all firms, as well as society as a whole. EXECUTIVE met with Omar Razzaz, the World Bank’s country manager for Lebanon, to discuss how the country’s business environment fares by international standards, the challenges facing reformers and the advantages offered to investors.
 


The World Bank’s annual DOING BUSINESS IN 2005 report just came out, with more countries and benchmarks than ever before. Governments are coming forth and requesting to be a part of it – what is the value of this report?

This is a yearly report with very critical information, not just on laws and regulations, but on the actual experience of businesses. That’s why it is meaningful. Businesses are not just interested in the legal framework, but how things work on the ground. The report tries to address the type of indicators that really matter to a business: how easy it is to start, how easy it is to operate and how easy it is to close a business. The other side of this report is that it looks at these indicators on a yearly basis, so you can see change all the time. A country that ranks very low but has gone on a pro-active program by the government to improve its business environment will be registered by the report very quickly. That is why the DOING BUSINESS report is increasingly noticed by investors around the world. Where a country ranks is as interesting to them as the pace at which it moves.

How would you assess Lebanon’s business environment based on the findings of the report?

Lebanon has its strengths and weaknesses. Among the strengths, you have the relative ease with which one can get credit and close a business – by regional standards that is. Where Lebanon does not do well is in terms of starting a business: the procedures as of now take 46 days, and the cost of starting a business is 130% of income per capita. This is much higher than in other countries in the region, as well as elsewhere in the world: just look at Latvia, another small country, where the cost is 17%. It has to do with the number of procedures, the time it takes and the uncertainty that’s involved in the process. The solutions are there: if you reduce the steps, if you automate them, if you set up a one-stop shop where investors can come and you give them clear procedures, it would dramatically change the situation. And it can be done fairly quickly: Jordan managed to reduce the time required to set up a business by nine weeks. The one other aspect in which Lebanon doesn’t do very well is the enforcement of contracts. In this area, Lebanon really stands out. It takes 721 days on average to enforce a contract and it involves 39 procedures. This is two or three times longer than even in developing countries. It is very difficult for a business to operate in an environment where you have a contract that you can’t have enforced. And there really is no reason why this has to continue. Lebanon, in terms of its jurisprudence, in terms of its human capital, has some of the best legal institutions in the Arab world. To improve that situation is a matter of will, of putting in the systems, and of training.

Have there been any significant attempts at implementing the necessary reforms to improve the investment climate here?

There have been very important islands of reform in Lebanon. If you look at the area of property registration or the application of VAT on transactions – these are areas that can take a very long time and in Lebanon it has been streamlined. But in the last two years, there hasn’t been a concerted effort by the government to systematically upgrade laws and regulations and undertake reform. This is a major drawback, because with a debt to GDP of almost 180%, the fiscal and monetary policies can only take you so far. They can reduce debt perhaps, and bring it down to 150-160%, but that is still a high level. The only way to reduce the debt is to grow out of it and increase your GDP. So it’s critical for Lebanon to focus on the investment environment to find ways to increase that pace of growth.

But this year, Lebanon witnessed a positive turn in many of its economic indicators: there’s been a sharp increase in export, tourism, construction permits, and bank deposits for instance. The country has experienced its highest GDP growth since 1997. Is this just cyclical growth or will it have a long-term impact, notably on the level of investment?

Our assessment is that this is not short-term. Lebanon has definitely benefited from this situation – it has allowed growth to reach 5% for instance. But the DOING BUSINESS report suggests that if a country moves drastically on reforms, it could add up to 2% on its growth rate. So what the Lebanese economy has done this year is fantastic, but if the country had improved its regulatory procedures for business, it might have added 2% more, thereby growing at 7%. And for Lebanon to deal with its debt problem in a sustainable way, it needs to grow at around 6% to7% every year, and this is achievable. When you look at the composition of the investments and the growth, tourism is fantastic and does create jobs, buying real estate is great. But what you want to see is more Lebanese expatriates and Arabs starting businesses that will create value added, jobs, on a sustainable basis. And for that to happen, you really need to make operating a business a much more straight forward undertaking.

How does this country fare by regional standards? Does it have any comparative advantages to other Arab countries in the eyes of investors?

Lebanon has to think dynamically in terms of its comparative advantage. It shouldn’t necessarily try to reclaim what it had in the 1960s, but rather think in terms of today – an era of information technology, globalization – to figure out its strengths and weaknesses. The most important element that Lebanon has that foreign investors would want is an innate cultural talent for creativity and service. If you look at the industries that are blooming, they are service industries, industries that relate to creativity, advertising, marketing, TV production… I’ve heard that six out of ten commercials in the Arab world are produced in Lebanon. This says something about the human capital in this country. This a multilingual country that is very exposed to information, trends from the West, and its juxtaposition between the Arab world and the West gives it a tremendous advantage in picking up important trends that might be relevant to the area, and modifying them to local tastes. Studies now show that for countries to compete, for countries to succeed, it’s not a matter of capital or resources, it’s a matter of the know-how that exists in a country and the systems that the country has that allow it to utilize that knowledge. The Lebanese have the know-how that is very hard to acquire by formal training. What they lack are the systems. And it’s incredible, because for most countries, the systems are the easy part to acquire. This is something you can buy with money, and a little bit of decision-making and coordination. Yet you find the systems that allow investors to invest money, to register, to get information, to have day-to-day operating procedures that are clear without dealing with a huge amount of red tape, to be the missing part here.

Yet at the same time the World Bank is pushing for educational programs in Lebanon to provide better technical and vocational training?

Here we come to the issue of equal opportunities. Lebanon has a long way to go before it can be proud of offering its population equal opportunities. There is a tremendous human capital in Lebanon, but that doesn’t mean everybody has access to the same quality of education. Those who have access to quality education, to private schools, to private universities, have tremendous talent. But those who are left behind are relegated to competing with unskilled workers, which is a very difficult thing to do in Lebanon given the relatively open borders and the inflow of foreign workers and high standards of living. For the average Lebanese, this is one of the hardest places to live. You can neither do what pays, because you haven’t been equipped, nor can you compete in the unskilled or semi-skilled professions because the standards of living are too high. And that is why vocational training and education are critical.

Speaking of unequal opportunities, is the lack of progress in improving the business environment excluding marginalized groups from participating in the formal economy in Lebanon?

This is very important. The more you deregulate entry for start-up businesses, especially small and medium enterprises, which are the ones that are most employment generating here, the more you create opportunities for employment, formal employment, which gives more protection to workers and has a snowball effect. In contrast, if you have high minimal capital requirements, then many of the businesses will stay in the informal sector. They will not be able to borrow, to expand, to pay taxes, which gets you into a vicious circle of the economy not growing and public finances not improving.

Another problem which Lebanon faces is the fact that it ranks internationally among the top violators of intellectual property rights. To what extent does this act as a deterrent to investors?

To the extent that Lebanon wants to move into the information age and the high-value added economy. In India, about 5000 to 6000 workers in Bangalore are producing about a third of all of India’s foreign exchange earnings, just because of the tremendous growth of the IT industry. Lebanon is so well positioned to enter that area. If it updates and reforms intellectual property rights and puts in the IT infrastructure, it can benefit a lot from it. Many countries make money out of piracy, but that’s not what Lebanon is about. Given Lebanon’s human capital, it needs to make the leap into becoming one of the producers of intellectual property, not one of the countries that live off piracy.

Closely related to this issue is the prospective of Lebanon joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), which the government hopes will happen in 2005. Is the country ready for it?

Lebanese business are ready for it, in the sense that there is a business acumen, an entrepreneurship that allows Lebanese businesses to excel anywhere in the world. My concern is whether Lebanon can bring the cost structure of doing business down. As long as these procedures, which we have been talking about, are prohibitive, as long as the cost of power is the way it is, as long as telecom is so expensive, as long shipment and agro-processing is costly and delayed and inefficient, Lebanese businesses will be greatly disadvantaged. Again, it’s about putting in the systems that will allow businesses to compete. It’s not about the innate ability of Lebanese businesses to compete with European businesses. If anything, I think lowering the barriers will allow for greater innovation.

Lebanon of course, also suffers from its external environment – the instability of the region, which affects investments into MENA as a whole. What impact do you think recent regional developments, most notably the passing of UN Resolution 1559, will have on the country?

These recent events have thrust Lebanon onto the international scene, which means that what the country does or doesn’t do is much more noticed today than it was yesterday. This poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the country. If the next government is a decisive government that takes strong actions on consolidating the freedoms in the country, protecting them, enhancing the transparency and accountability of the government, improving the business environment, taking concrete steps on the macro-economic level to put the country on a more sustainable path towards growth and debt reduction, this is going to be noticed, and noticed very favorably. If it turns out to be a government that is unable to take any serious action towards fundamental social and economic problems, and if it is perceived as even moving back on Lebanon’s uniqueness, which is its freedom, that will be registered as well. We are hopeful and the World Bank will be very active in continuing its support and will work with any government that comes in, to assist it in enhancing Lebanon’s performance and thereby it’s image in the world.

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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Society

Down but not out

by Marianne Mirabeau October 1, 2004
written by Marianne Mirabeau

There was a time, in the late 90s, when Lebanese basketball could do no wrong. Lebanese teams – brimming with home-grown talent and the odd high-profile import – beat everyone in sight, games were shown on prime-time TV and crowds of enthusiastic fans blocked streets for hours, celebrating victory after victory. Lebanon appeared to have found its national sport and the sponsors could not get their checkbooks out fast enough.

That was then. Today, the clubs, deserted by their sponsors, are propped up by wealthy patrons, marred by scandals, feuds and crises. The recession did not help, but when Antoine Choueiry, advertising mogul and the so-called “Godfather of Basketball,” recently announced his retirement from the presidency of Sagesse and indeed from the sport in general, basketball’s last hope appeared to have hung up his shirt. So what went wrong and what now for the sport that promised so much?

A sport supported by patrons

Essentially Lebanese basketball was always a loss-making concern, largely dependent on patrons willing to pick up the check. In the first division, all teams have one to two main patrons, covering virtually the entirety of their budgets, which averaged $1.5 million in 2004.

Relationships were formed out of a love for the sport, politics and business interests. Hence BLC Bank became one of Champville’s main sponsors, contributing $350,000 annually to the team, because tuition fees to Champville School were deposited with BLC. UFA insured the club and went on to sponsor the team to the tune of between $200,000 to $300,000 annually (although this jumped up to $800,000 in 2004 when UFA General Manager Henri Chalhoub was nominated team president).

“Each club has a certain person paying the deficit,” said Federation of Lebanese Basketball (FLB) Manager Roland Tabet. “For Blue Stars, it’s [Banque Saradar’s] Mario Saradar or [Loto Libanais’s] Rainier Jreissati. The club is not making a profit. None of them are.”

The Choueiry factor

It was Antoine Choueiry’s goal to make the game financially self-sufficient when he took over Sagesse in 1994. He may have failed in his bid, but his tenure as the sports most high-profile patron changed the face of the game. “Regardless of what anyone might say about Antoine Choueiry, what he did for basketball was memorable,” said Carlo Vincenti, who represents William Lawson, a former major sponsor of Sagesse. “His approach to basketball was very interesting, and it is what Lebanon needed – a more global approach, a more commercial approach.”

Choueiry injected significant amounts of capital both into his own team as well as into that of others. “He backed other teams up financially such as Antranik and Hannibal. He used to pay them $150,000 so they could play in the league,” explains a major Lebanese sports agent, who did not want to be named. With a solid group of teams competing at the highest level, Choueiry upped the ante by buying overseas professional players (mainly from the US) to shore up the quality of his own team. Such a move catapulted both Sagesse and the Lebanese national team on a winning streak, which culminated in Sagesse’s victory at the Asian Basketball Championship in 1999 and Lebanon’s qualification for the World Basketball Championship in Indianapolis, USA, in 2002. The media took the bait and the hype surrounding the sport reached a frenzy in 2000, when Choueiry, who controls 70% of Lebanon’s ad-spend, convinced LBCI to broadcast basketball games during prime time. “He got all the teams together and brought LBCI in to cover them, broadcasting the games live on satellite TV,” said the sports agent. “People started watching more and more basketball.”

Summing up the philosophy behind his strategy, Choueiry was quoted as saying that “to be competitive in sports, you need money, to get money, you need sponsoring, to get sponsoring you need exposure, for exposure you need TV, for TV to be interested you need true competition of a certain level. This needs important teams, to get important teams you need money.”

The sponsors liked what they saw. Despite representing a non-sport oriented product, William Lawson went from an obscure Scottish Whisky to a household name in three years by sponsoring Sagesse. “It was definitely effective in terms of brand building. When we started (sponsoring Sagesse in 1999), basketball wasn’t that big,” he said. “And basically while we were sponsoring Sagesse, it started winning tournaments, starting with the Lebanese championship, the Pan-Arab games and then all the way to the Asian Basketball Championship. So there was a major hype around basketball, and we got a lot of exposure from it. Before Choueiry you would never have seen a basketball game playing on prime time on LBCI. What sponsors need is the exposure – for them a basketball game playing at midnight or a game playing at 8:30 pm makes a big difference.”

The sport of choice

The increasing exposure made basketball the sport of choice in Lebanon, both in terms of audience and practice. According to Tabet, the number of licensed basketball players in Lebanon has been steadily increasing since 2000, when the Federation counted approximately 6,000 players. Today, this figure stands at 15,000. “Everybody loves basketball,” boasted Riaydi coach Fouad Abou Chacra. “In every family in Lebanon you have someone playing basketball. It’s the biggest sport.”

For Pepsi, the growing appeal of basketball in the country, especially among the youth, served as a big draw to get involved in the sport, and from 2000 on, the multinational signed up. “Pepsi wants to get close to what the youth likes, and in Lebanon, that sport is basketball more so than football,” explained Roula Safi, a regional account director at Impact/BBDO, Pepsi’s regional advertising agent.

Piggybacking on the significant exposure brought to basketball through prime time TV coverage, Pepsi went on to sign deals with LBCI, as well as buying ad space on courts. They launched a major ad campaign around Rony Seikaly, a fading, but high-profile Lebanese NBA player, and organized a promotional competition in 2003 to attract young, new talent to basketball.

“LBCI has done a good job of promoting the game, creating a hype – that’s why we have been sponsoring the game for the past three years,” Safi added. “As all the games are retransmitted, there is a lot of brand visibility, so branding on courts has been a good investment for us.”

Too much hype?

The sport reached it peak in 2000, after which the hype began to fizzle. Explaining William Lawson’s decision to terminate its sponsoring contract with Sagesse in 2000, Vincenti said: “Once you’ve reached the top it’s difficult to keep the interest going. They won the Asian Championship… then what? When you win the Lebanese championship ten years in a row, it becomes boring.”

For now, the brand is not considering returning to sport sponsorship any time soon. “Lebanon is not sports-oriented,” Vincenti said. “Actually, they are quite sports oriented, but not toward local sports, it’s much more international. Football is small and basketball was basically the most popular sport.”

It’s the economy stupid! Compounding the slump was the slight problem of a recession. Sponsors are pulling out, contracts are going for less, and advertising spots are being sold for a fraction of the price they used to. Getting one’s brand on the coveted center circle of the basketball court once went for $50,000 to $100,000, depending on the club. Today, it can go for as little as $6,000.

“The economic situation in Lebanon has been getting worse in the past five years, and thus the overall advertising budget is also down proportionally, by nearly 30% compared to what it was six years ago,” Choueiry complained last year.

Tabet agrees. “Instead of having a contract for $50,000, probably now they are negotiating for $15,000 to $20,000.”

Following the withdrawal of LibanCell, Sagesse is now saying goodbye to Adidas, its second biggest sponsor and one that had been with the team for years. “Adidas sponsored us for five to six years,” said Barakat. “This is in part because they are transferring their regional headquarters to Dubai, but it is also due to the fact that they are cutting down on their sponsoring budget and focusing on big international teams.” Adidas declined to comment on the matter.

The vote of no-confidence will undoubtedly affect the earning power of Lebanon’s top players, many of whom earn as much as $20,000 a month. “Even Lebanese players are earning between $5,000 and $7,000 per month,” said Barakat. The unraveling of the sport

However the sport’s struggle to obtain sponsoring cannot only be blamed on the economy. Crises, scandals, and mud-slinging have destroyed confidence among fans, players, team owners and sponsors alike. Topping the list of scandals is Café Najjar’s decision to dissolve its team following the brawl that erupted between its players and an Algerian team at the Arab Championships in Jeddahin May 2004. “Georges Najjar was unhappy with the fact that a team associated with his company, which is expanding into Algeria, was seen fighting on TV with the Algerian team,” the agent explained. “There are problems in Lebanese basketball,” admitted Joseph Abdel Massih, a member of Champville’s Sports Committee. “The championships never really finish. Every year you have a problem at the end of the championship. The clubs and the Federation need to solve these problems –sponsors don’t want to see players wearing their jersey having problems. Everything has to be calm.”

To others, the problems go beyond the perpetual feuds between the FLB and the teams. “The problem is that we’re in Lebanon – no law is applied, there is no legal recourse,” a Blue Stars affiliate complained. “It’s the law of the jungle, the law of the strongest that prevails. And who is the strongest here? Choueiry.” But while Choueiry’s sudden departure from Sagesse left a few rubbing their hands in glee, the most prevalent reaction was that of widespread regret. That the sport will suffer a set-back financially due to his retirement is beyond doubt and many patrons are abandoning what they see as a sinking ship. Henri Chalhoub is apparently to leave Champville and take UFA’s sponsorship with him. “I am almost certain that we won’t sponsor Champville anymore,” an associate of Chalhoub confided.

The challenges ahead

As patrons and big sponsors desert the court, the onus is on the sport to clean up its act, and on the teams to build up a strategy to re-attract enough sponsors to become self-sufficient. “Within five years, we plan to have sponsors covering our budget,” said Riyadi coach Abou Chacra. “We can achieve this target. This team will be able to attract all the big companies – it has the biggest number of supporters and it’s the oldest club.”

Others are more cautious in their predictions. Acknowledging that Choueiry’s departure will require an extended recovery period for the sport, they do however, point to the strengths Lebanese basketball has been able to build up over the recent years: the number of enlisted players, the enduring preference for basketball over other sports, the continued broadcasting on LBCI and the on-going plan to establish a Lebanese-Syrian-Jordanian Superleague.

“This [super league] will attract sponsors,” said Sagesse technical director Rizkallah Zaloum. “Next season the sponsorship will increase.” Pepsi is cautiously confident. “We do research assessments on the game’s appeal every year, notably to see if it is still attracting youth,” said Safi on behalf of Pepsi. “If it is still generating the interest that it is now, that will serve as a major factor in our decision as to whether or not we will continue sponsoring the sport.”

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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Society

Battle of the Titans ends in merger

by Anthony Mills October 1, 2004
written by Anthony Mills

This year, more than four million cinema tickets will be sold in Lebanon, despite the offer of a cheaper alternative by hundreds of cable TV and DVD pirates. The ABC mall cinema in Achrafieh has finally thrown open its doors – after months of delay. A 12-screen multiplex north of Beirut, reportedly the Middle East’s biggest, is slated for completion by year’s end. The big story however, is the merger between Lebanon’s two major cinema distributors, Planete and Empire. The move comes after an almost ten-year battle for market supremacy, one in which Empire ultimately prevailed.

Both companies confirmed to EXECUTIVE that Planete has committed to a November 4 management takeover by Empire, in a possible prelude to a buy-out. The announcement comes after Planete saw the 65% market share it acquired in just a few years after its 1995 launch drop to less than 25% in 2004. The official announcement of the deal will come in mid-October. The decline in Planete’s share of the roughly $20 million Lebanese cinema sector was precipitated by an aggressive Empire campaign to rebuild its market share, primarily by renting more space for cinemas. Unable to follow suit, because unlike Empire it had already spent a fortune buying cinema space, Planete looked on helplessly as Hollywood studio giants Warner and UIP re-defected to the Empire camp two years ago, and revenues plummeted. “We had different strategies. We invested much more than they did. Our strategy was to run theaters we owned. Theirs was to manage theaters. Now we understand that their strategy was the right one, and we were wrong,” declared Planete Manager Gilbert Chammas.

Planete’s brisk march to success after it broke into the sector almost 10 years ago took Empire by surprise. “We hadn’t taken Planete seriously,” admitted Empire Manager Gino Haddad. “But after the first year we saw that their figures were good. They began to eat away at our market share.”

When, after only a few years, Planete had a bigger market share than Empire, the alarm bells started ringing. The problem, explained Haddad, was that Empire simply didn’t have enough screens to satisfy distributors by playing all their movies, and keeping them on offer long enough. And so, a number of the distributors had decided that their interests would be better served by Planete. Empire’s response? “We opened more cinemas,” chuckled Haddad. “And we took the prime locations: Sodeco, Dunes, and recently the ABC mall cinema.”

In the absence of a counter move by Planete, the additional high-end Empire screens quickly tilted the market share balance back in Empire’s favor. Distributors began drifting back. But Chammas contended that they didn’t move back solely to maximize ticket sales. “When UIP was with us, they used to have 400,000 to 500,000 admissions a year. With Empire they now have only 150,000,” he asserted. He refused to reveal what he believed the distributors’ true motives were, saying only that Empire benefit from the alliances.

“Planete was starting from scratch,” echoed Haddad. Empire, on the other hand, has been around in one form or another for almost a century. The business distributed Lebanon’s three highest-grossing movies ever – TITANIC (about $2 million),” The PASSION OF CHRIST (about $1.4 million), and THE MASK OF ZORRO (roughly $600,000 – and sold about 2.6 million seats in 2003.

“Planete, I think, welcomes the management takeover move because all the major movies shown in Lebanon are now shown by Empire,” declared Haddad. “This year, our market share has grown to 78%. If things had continued like this, maybe next year we would have had 85%. And that’s how it would have ended. This is actually in the interest of Planete.” “It’s a win-win deal,” agreed Chammas.

Negotiations began over six months ago, according to Haddad. Both he and Chammas declined to disclose who initiated the merger discussions, but they stressed that the talks were amicable. Asked if Empire planned an eventual buyout of Planete, Haddad said: “There is the possibility of a buyout if the price is convenient for both parties.” Yes, he added, there had been discussions about whether or not Empire would be interested in buying. Planete was valuing itself in excess of $5 million, he said. Chammas confirmed the possibility of a buyout at a later stage. Haddad claimed, though, that Empire was adopting a cautious approach to the buyout option. He said the earliest a buyout would come in a year, after Empire had had time to assess the prospects of Planete cinemas under Empire management.

“Buying today is a risk, because in ten years’ time, I can’t tell you if Abraj and Zouk will still be doing the same figures,” he said. It is still unclear, he explained, what effect the ABC mall cinema will have on other cinemas. “ABC is exactly four-and-a-half minutes’ drive from Abraj, along the motorway. For every cinema that goes up, one goes down. ABC has gone up. Either Sodeco or Abraj will go down.”

Under the terms of the management takeover deal, Empire is to assume control of Planete’s Tripoli, Zouk and Abraj cinemas, which will retain their Planete brand identity. Planete will continue to manage its Concorde venue in Verdun. Overall, Planete theaters count a total of 28 screens and about 5,500 seats. The merger will give Empire control of 60 screens in Lebanon.

Empire is to pay Planete a percentage of revenue or “rental fee.” Haddad said he was unable to reveal figures, but said the fee would represent a “good chunk of revenue,” at least equal to current Planete earnings. A product of the merger, said Haddad, will be the homogenization of cinema movie selections across Empire and Planete screens. The curtains will be drawn on an almost-10-year Empire-Planete tussle for exclusive agreements with international distributors and on the mutually exclusive Empire and Planete movie listings these fluctuating alliances spawned. Soon, choice of movies will no longer figure among the criteria used by cinemagoers to decide which cinema to head for. Instead, they will be paying greater attention to décor, surroundings, location (including proximity to home), and atmosphere. “We want to get to the point where, like in the United States, people choose the site, and not the movie,” stated Haddad. “Having all the good movies in each cinema will increase revenue.”

And once the audiences are choosing sites, not movies, Empire intends to charge more for high-end venue tickets than for others. Just as moviegoers pay £11 to see a movie at a Leicester Square cinema in the heart of London, and less in the suburbs, so, Haddad explained, Lebanese audiences will be charged more to watch a movie at the ABC mall in Achrafieh, than at a cinema in Tripoli. “We might price tickets at new sites, with the best seats, sound and screen, at $10. But we would price the same movie at an old, dying site at $5.00,” he said. Even Sodeco tickets would cost less than ABC ones.

Another product of the deal will be the amalgamation of Empire Espace and Planete Zouk, both north of Beirut, to create a 12- or 13-screen 3,000-seat multiplex venue, complete with a media store and entertainment facilities. Espace Planete, as it will be known, will be the biggest multiplex venue in the Middle East, according to Chammas, and is scheduled to begin screening before the end of the year.

Empire believes there is money to be made from the massive influx of Gulf Arabs. The company’s newly-opened cinema at the ABC mall in Achrafieh attracted flocks of Gulf visitors in July and August, according to Haddad. In part to cater to Gulf Arab visitors, Empire is pioneering a staggered show-time approach – already standard practice in America and Britain – at its ABC mall cinema. Instead of showing movies at fixed times, a new screening begins in one of the nine theaters every 15 minutes. This routine allows viewers to dispense with the bustle of getting to the cinema ‘on time,’ and to integrate their cinema visit with a ramble around the mall, or a bite to eat at one of the shopping center’s cafés or restaurants. Gulf Arab families who have come to Lebanon to relax welcome the stress-free approach.

Although Gulf Arabs still represent a fraction of Lebanon’s annual box office receipts, they spend far more than Lebanese viewers at the concessions stands. “The average Lebanese spends a dollar or two. A Gulf Arab spends $7 to $10,” observed Haddad. And concession takings constitute between 20% and 30% of Empire’s overall annual revenue, he noted.

When it comes to taste, the younger Lebanese crowd isn’t too hot on Arabic movies, apart from the iconic ones like “West Beirut.” That explains why you might see only one Arabic movie a year in an Empire cinema, observed Haddad.

And there is no hope at all in Lebanon for art house movie theaters, which are popular in the West. “We tried,” said Haddad. “But no one wants to go to those kinds of cinemas anymore here. If there was a huge library in Lebanon, like in France or England, with old, interesting books, how many people would you see in it?” Home theaters are taking a steadily increasing, but bearable, toll on cinema owners. DVD and cable TV pirates, on the other hand, have, for several years been slashing huge chunks out of cinema revenues. According to lawyer Walid Nasser, who has been tasked by major American film studios with limiting the damages to their interests caused by piracy in Lebanon, cinemas here have lost more than 50% of their audiences because of the problem. “And the government is doing nothing about it.”

Nasser said there were as many as 700 pirate cable companies operating in Lebanon, with up to 750,000 subscribers, who pay an average of $10.50 each a month. This translates into a total monthly revenue of over $7.5 million for pirates.

“You can buy fake DVDs from Malaysia here for $2. We have pirated cable TV providers who play all the new movies. It’s a huge problem. In other countries they are finding solutions, but not in Lebanon. There are too many people involved. There’s too much money being made by people who control the market and have an interest in keeping things as they are,” lamented Haddad. “It’s like the electricity problem. In Jounieh, everyone pays. In Dahieh, no one does. It’s simple: politics. At the border, when they bring over pirated DVDs, someone gets $100 and a phone call. And even if pirates do get arrested, nothing happens to them. They have to pay $400 or $500, or another phone call is made.”

“There was one case in Sidon, where we went to raid a major pirate,” recalled Nasser. “He had a Kalashnikov on his desk. That put an end to the raid pretty fast.”

Asked if some pirates were protected by powerful public figures, Nasser said: “Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised because of the amount of money that’s collected on a monthly basis – $7.5 million is a lot of money.”

If piracy was being combated properly in Lebanon, Haddad said, Empire would double its DVD sales. On a positive note, though, in contrast to other Arab countries, censorship in Lebanon is no longer proving too much of a headache for cinema industry professionals. “We have come a long way from the days when you couldn’t show a breast,” remarked Haddad.

TYRING TO REMAIN INDEPENDENT IN A CHANGING MARKET

Cinema runs in the blood of the Fathallah family. Since its inception in the age of silent movies, the Fathallah family cinema business has been passed down from generation to generation. Today, the Fathallah Films Co. rests in the hands of A.K. Fathallah, independent owner of the one-screen Aresco Palace and Montreal cinemas in Sanaya and Hamra respectively. Unable, though, to compete with Empire and Planete in the English-language film market, or to survive on Arabic film screenings alone, A.K. is battling the unthinkable: an inauspicious shutdown of the family’s cinema business interests.

Years ago, Fathallah Films used to distribute to cinemas across Lebanon, from Tripoli to Sidon, and throughout Beirut and its suburbs. Today, it finds itself confined to two locations in Beirut.

“There used to about 20 theaters in Hamra. We are the sole survivors. We’re trying to continue,” mused A.K.. “These days, we can show only Arabic movies, because Empire and Planete, who own all English-language film distribution rights for Lebanon, won’t give us any movies. Sometimes they say they don’t have enough prints, sometimes that they are waiting for confirmation from America. But the truth is they have their own cinemas and have no interest in letting anyone else show their films.”

A.K.’s audience numbers have been given a modest boost by the increase in Gulf Arab visitors. This year, A.K. opened a cinema for two months in Bhamdoun, to tap into the summer Gulf market up there. But there just aren’t enough popular Arabic movies, or Gulf tourists, around to pack A.K.’s cinemas consistently. During the lulls, he rents out his theaters for plays and shows. A mark of desperation? “It’s difficult,” A.K. concedes.

Increasing cable piracy since the end of the war in 1991 has only made matters worse. “The last five years have been terrible,” declared A.K.. “Everything is working against cinema. And no one is helping. They ask me for my certificates. Why does no one ask the pirates for theirs? People can watch 100 stations at home and pay nothing. Nowadays, to get someone out of their chair to go to the cinema, you need to offer a big choice or a big movie.”

Fathallah Films’ plight has been aggravated by changing audience preferences. Today’s younger generation in Lebanon is shying away from Arabic movies and one-screen cinemas, in favor of action-packed American blockbusters and multiplex venues. Back in 1980, Fathallah Films drew audiences to one of its cinemas for a year with the same Arabic movie. Today, that would be inconceivable. A.K.’s cinemas draw about 55,000 viewers (or roughly $260,000 revenue) a year, a far cry from Empire’s 2.6 million. No one has offered to buy out Fathallah Films’ cinema interests – an ominous indication, maybe, that, from a market perspective, they are simply not worth buying. This explains why the company has, in recent years, placed ever-greater emphasis on its non-cinematic interests. “We are shifting from cinema to television,” stated A.K. Fathallah Films distributes programs, including documentaries and cartoons, to television broadcasters like MBC and Dubai Television. Asked if Fathallah Films could survive today on cinema alone, A.K. responded: “Never. It’s impossible to survive on our two cinemas and low audiences.”

“I hope we don’t have to close down our cinema interests altogether,” he added. “I love cinema. My brother loves cinema. Our family started this company with cinema.”

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Head shots

by Michael Young October 1, 2004
written by Michael Young

Oh, how Adam Smith would have shuddered to know that the “invisible hand,” which he described as the guiding force of markets, can be seen most often these days cutting the necks of videotaped hostages in Iraq and Saudi Arabia – and that this, too, is guiding a new and exotic market, that of execution CDs. In September, the passion to film atrocities was evident in Beslan, South Ossetia, where Chechen gunmen shot footage of the booby trapped gymnasium where they were holding hundreds of captive schoolchildren, though the exact reason why they filmed remains unclear. Perhaps it was to warn off Russian security forces by showing them the surfeit of explosives in the room; perhaps it was to record the event for posterity or for propaganda purposes. That said, few experiences are more ghastly than watching similarly reasoned videotapes from the Chechen war, where rebels filmed themselves cutting the throats of pleading Russian prisoners.

Everywhere, it seems, militant Islamists, or self-described “freedom fighters,” have been transformed into ghoulish Irving Thalbergs, producing what was hitherto an urban legend: snuff films. And where there is sensationalism, there is supply and demand: According to a Reuters reporter in Iraq: “The hottest-selling item at Baghdad’s video CD market is not a movie or a music video –it’s an ordinary Egyptian whose beheading was filmed by his Muslim militant captors.” And how big a market is that? “We see about 300 to 400 clips a week,” said one shopkeeper, who didn’t have the nerve to watch what he was selling. At about 70 cents a CD, that’s (for Iraq) a respectable $210 to $280 a week. The paradox of the execution CD sales, much like that of al-Qaeda’s ability to use new computer technology or to decipher and exploit the Byzantine ways of international financial transfers, is that utterly illiberal gentlemen are at ease in the ways of the free market. The market is, in theory, amoral, so that whichever product finds an aficionado should also find a price for its purchase. In fact, that rule is repeatedly broken, for example in the sale of child pornography or the distribution of drugs. But where do the execution CDs take their place?

The answer would appear simple: in the dustbin. But that’s clearly not where Iraqi shopkeepers are storing them, or where avid spectators are watching them. Why? Because somehow death has been hitched to things regarded as legitimate: anti-Americanism, the alleged apostasy or guilt of the filmed victims, perceived resistance, and the like. More easily illustrating this trait, another of the big CD sellers in Iraq show images of the young cleric Moqtada al-Sadr edited in with war scenes showing people lying in their own blood. Watching exhibitionist violence becomes eminently acceptable if viewers regard it as part of a justifiable experience, a fact splendidly exploited by Al-Jazeera, which has embraced, if not largely propelled, the market of videotaped captive-taking.

In that context, for example, Iraqi viewers may watch CDs with images from Abu Ghraib (with spliced-in scenes from a Hungarian pornographic film showing alleged American soldiers raping Arab women) because he or she feels it is a duty to confirm the evil nature of the American occupation. NBC correspondent Hanson Hosein recently quoted a shopkeeper: “The Abu Ghraib scandal CDs are very popular … people are angry at what the American soldiers are doing.” Of course, one cannot underestimate the brute titillation some members of the public feel while watching someone being butchered. It’s apparently not all stern duty. And one suspects that not a few Al-Jazeera viewers (or those of Al-Arabiya, which is less beloved by the chop-chop set) watch the edited murders much as they would a spectral scene from Werner Herzog’s NOSFERATU THE VAMPYRE. What is the moral of the atrocity CDs or videos making the rounds in Baghdad or Riyadh? That even those who wish to carry the world backwards to some vague time immemorial will adopt the most modern techniques to do so; that even the most outrageous of human actions can produce a market of sorts, proving that free minds and free markets need not invariably be one; that human beings will readily watch other humans being killed for various reasons, and will usually seek to justify this on moral or political grounds; and that even the most ardent defenders of freedom, in particular the freedom to broadcast and watch atrocity tapes, can define it truly only as the right to be free without harming others.

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Taking retail to the next level

by Thomas Schellen October 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

ADMIC, operator of the Monoprix and BHV stores in Lebanon, are adding to their retail stable. The company has begun its PR and marketing campaign for the 200,000 square meter City Mall, due to open at the northern gateway to metropolitan Beirut in three stages between December 2005 and the end of 2006.

ADMIC chairman and CEO, Michel Abchee, told EXECUTIVE the mall will open on the ground floor with specialty shops and one new ADMIC-operated anchor store, the 11,000 square meter hypermarket Casino Geant. In the second phase, the food court and shops on the upper level will open in early spring; followed by a 18,000 square meter BHV outlet as a second anchor and a nine-cinema multiplex at an unspecified date in 2005. The company is in negotiations with a sporting goods store that would function as the mall’s third anchor. The $70 million project is running slightly above budget, due to euro-related increases in construction costs and because of adding areas onto the initial blueprint. The financing of City Mall is based on retained earnings from ADMIC operations, capitalized at $50 million, and bank loans under leadership of the retail company’s house bank, Banque Méditerranée. “We were able to get an investor base that was interested in what we are doing and in our market. Our shareholders have pushed for the development of ADMIC by reinvesting profits instead of paying out dividends,” Abchee said. “This really helped in our development of growing from 50 employees [in 1998] to over 1,000 employees today and 1,500 by the end of the year 2004.” That the retailer stepped outside of its core business competencies by taking on a real estate developer function, was explained by a desire to meet international standards and customer demand. He admitted that the country has an oversupply retail space in real terms, but when it came to quality and specifications required for a project of an international standard, most locations and developments did not measure up. Thus, when ADMIC investigated the possibilities for establishing a hypermarket they opted to build an entire mall from scratch on their preferred site. The site, on the north side of the Dora Highway, satisfied the company’s preferences for easy accessibility, significant traffic flows and a good catchment area in Beirut and the Metn region. With new tenants coming onboard daily, Abchee is confident that the City Mall will stand out in Lebanon’s convoluted retail landscape and attract sufficient consumer spending despite the nation’s reduced purchasing power. “We have received positive reactions from the representatives of international brands,” he said. “We really built a mall suited for Lebanon and suited to international clients. The mall will be the first of its kind.”

While all this may contain a degree of hyperbole, the ADMIC project appears to indeed fit well into the evolutionary pattern of mall developments in Lebanon over the past decade. The profound changes in the nation’s shopping patterns began as malls made their entry onto the local retail scene when the resurging post-war economy saw developers carve shopping centers like the Concorde Galleria in Verdun out of existing real estate as well as purpose-build a number of projects from the Freeway Mall in Sin El Fil to the Sodeco Square in Ashrafieh. But although a good number of these retail sites came to the market in the mid 90s bearing labels of malls, they represented more of an intermediary link in the advance of shopping from traditional high street and small store environments to new retail destinations. A few of the early projects initially flourished as urban shopping centers offering specialized retail (mostly fashion), entertainment facilities (cinemas and unsophisticated arcades) and small food courts, but many soon struggled, floundering in the recession. In this evolution, in which Lebanon today pursues modern retail concentration trends ahead of Syria and Jordan but substantially behind the Gulf economies, the current period marks a further stage of retail refinement through construction of larger, efficient malls. What makes ADMIC’s entry into the mall operating business interesting is that the company is consolidating an already entrenched position in the re-shaping of Lebanon’s shopping culture. The company’s new position in mall management converges with its role as multi-brand retail store operator and leading supplier serving Lebanese consumers in less than six years.

The larger businesses in Lebanon’s fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) retail sector can be broadly divided into traditional and entrepreneurial retailers. While the former constitute a host of family-centric companies with decades of entrenchment in relations with local manufacturers, traders and old-style exclusive agents, the entrepreneurial side of FMCG retail is really made up of two firms: ADMIC and Spinneys. Entering and immediately shaking up the highly contested market in the late 90s, both companies struggled with the sector’s entrenched business patterns, consumers’ shrinking purchasing power and the political and legislative environment.

Nonetheless, the two companies have risen to preeminent positions in the local market, expressed in combined 2003 turnover figures of roughly 1% of GDP – tendency pointing strongly upwards. According to Abchee, from already achieving slightly over $100 million in annual turnover, ADMIC looks to reaching $150 million by the end of 2004 and, including the new stores, aims to double 2003 turnover by the end of 2005.

In addition to the growth in volume, the company targets a wider customer spectrum through rolling out the Geant hypermarket brand, which aims to attract all income segments. Understanding itself as a firm that promotes the Lebanese middle class, ADMIC hitherto tended towards an image of addressing middle to upper income audiences with the BHV non-food product segmentation of clothing, perfume, electronics, household, sporting goods and do-it-yourself items. The Monoprix stores initially catered to medium to high earners, but now expanded their approach to appeal to cost-conscious shoppers with Monoprix-branded food items and their own-brand clothing labels. Last year, ADMIC began to strengthen Monoprix by adding three new stores to their portfolio. Another area where Abchee presents the company as having a different approach is in financing. “What we tried to do is separate the expansion from the day-to-day business,” he said. Under dependable participation by board members and banking partners, ADMIC made their investment calculations without thinking to involve operational resources. This resulted in keeping relations with suppliers free from financial hiccups, he claimed. “We are paying our suppliers on time and intend to continue to do so. We can take credit for respecting our engagements with suppliers.” As for concerns on possible internal cannibalization of revenue streams between stores, he said that the addition of stores did not produce significant cuts in turnover at the company’s stores in Jnah and Ashrafieh, calling a 6% to 7% contraction in turnover in Jnah “a big success for us” in light of the increased competition from the largest Spinneys outlet, which opened late last year two blocks down the street from the BHV/Monoprix complex. As a clear bonus on the operational side, ADMIC anticipates the expansion of retail floor space, first through opening the three new stores and then through the Geant and BHV stores in City Mall. As this reduces costs, the retailer’s improved bargaining position in sourcing products from local suppliers could mean some welcome reductions in retail prices.

Also outside of price benefits to Lebanese consumers, which were helped visibly by the competition between the Monoprix stores, the Spinneys chain and the traditional supermarkets over the past five years, ADMIC operations changed the retail sector in several other aspects. This impact extended from opening a small do-it-yourself niche in the Lebanese market and introducing new concepts on perfume sales – when launching the BHV cosmetics department, the company encountered “huge resistance against our presentation” from suppliers – to leading the sector in marketing and advertising campaigns, which were later followed by competitors and resulted in sector wide increased advertising spending, the manager claimed. The company also contributed in two ways to greater transparency, one by centering billboard advertising campaigns on aggressively priced sales items and two by declaring their policies and charges in allocating shelf space to suppliers. In the push and shove negotiations with manufacturers and brand representatives desperate to secure optimal positioning and maximum space for their products, supermarkets had commonly placed certain demands on suppliers – which smaller importers often found excessive – but these positioning conditions were usually not transparent. Industry insiders maintained that these arrangements were open to corruption. By laying open their policies on this matter and telling suppliers that their shelf space depended on their market share and their practices with ADMIC, Abchee said his firm could take credit for bringing much needed clarity to the process. In Abchee’s view, all these moves have successfully challenged conventional practices by established retailers and the major companies acting as FMCG suppliers. “All the big groups were traditional in their thinking. It took us a long time to change the way how these people are thinking,” he said. “We are helping in the evolution of consumer behavior and in the evolution of relationships between customers and suppliers.” On charting and analyzing consumer behavior, the company claimed to have no figures on the number of tourists frequenting the stores in the summer season and the contribution of their purchases to the turnover at BHV and Monoprix. Abchee explained the absence of detailed figures with ADMIC’s reluctance to undertake polls and surveys that customers might perceive as hurting their sensitivities. However, he confirmed that VAT reimbursement claims and credit card-related data were indicators for the high significance of purchases by tourists and summer guests for the company’s revenue stream, and the company made it a point to advertise at Beirut Airport. In fact, tourism was also an important consideration in ADMIC’s corporate strategy behind developing the City Mall project – and one where the manager became vocal on the absence of government support. If one looks at the reality of Lebanon as a tourism destination, retail shopping is one major way in which the country attracts visitors but the government has not given priority to supporting retail projects as tourism magnets, ignoring the issue “for all the wrong reasons,” Abchee said. “It is a major strategy in our marketing plan that we place special budgets to attract tourists. The only problem is that we are doing it alone. The government is counting a lot on the private sector for tourism development but not giving breaks in return. We would recommend closer communication between the government and the private sector.”

A second matter where public-private sector interactions are relevant to ADMIC’s devlopement concern the company’s plan to bring a store of French fashion retailer Galeries Lafayette to the SOUQS of Beirut. The plan, hatched several years ago between the Groupe Galeries Lafayette (which is also the parent company of the BHV and Monoprix chains) and ADMIC, has not been abandoned but has been deeply packed in ice by the quarrels and delays surrounding the downtown SOUQS project. Considering ADMIC’s evolution has involved a degree of learning by adapting the BHV and Monoprix formulas to local customer preferences, success has not been as easy as the smooth growth figures and available financial results of the privately held company suggest. “We listen to our customers. From five years ago until now, our stores have evolved and adaptation to the local market is our main issue,” he mused. “Some people say we like too much to take risks. We are taking more risks than others but calculated risks can be good.”

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

Uncertain times ahead

by Tony Hchaime October 1, 2004
written by Tony Hchaime

There has been much speculation surrounding the implications of the presidential extension, especially given the reservations articulated by international leaders, the UN, and prominent members of the Arab League, including the GCC and Jordan.

Lebanon’s economy is highly fragile and vulnerable to local and regional political developments. Historically, times of uncertainty led to economic downturns, with slowdown in production, exports, and tourism, with only local consumption supporting the economy. Today, however, local consumption has been hit by a drastic deterioration in the standard of living in the country, flaring concerns about the economic implications of the Lahoud extension, the potential departure of Hariri, changes in the relationships with Syria and the incumbent developments in foreign relations, especially with the US and Europe. While no crystal ball is available to foresee the new Lahoud era, and no logical reasoning can prove Lahoud’s claims that his new term will be “different,” Lebanon’s economy continues to shoulder a massive public debt, recurring budget deficit, and delays in reforms. Public spending and budget deficit

Government spending on infrastructure and other public expenditures has historically been a main driver for economic growth in Lebanon, at least under the various Hariri governments. The market clearly recalls an economy on the verge of collapse during the Selim el Hoss government in 2000, when the government at the time put a lid on expenditures by blocking many infrastructure projects. Over the past years, the Hariri and Lahoud camps have been balancing each other out on the issue. Hariri’s camp, much more inclined towards spending, has been pushing for more and more infrastructure projects, while the Lahoud camp’s more conservative approach managed to keep the resulting budget deficit from blowing through the roof. Hariri seems sincere about his intention to quit the government if Lahoud stays in power. Should this be the case, the country may witness a serious shift in policy on government expenditures on construction and infrastructure. With no clear sign of who the incoming new prime minister would be, it is anyone’s guess as to what the budget would look like one year from now, and what the economic impact of a major change would reveal.

Alternatively, government public revenues would also be seriously affected by a change in policy. The Hariri government’s policy has typically been in favor of raising taxes and custom duties as a means to improve government revenues, especially as no serious plans for privatization or securitization are in the pipeline. The reason why such plans have not yet been implemented is because of differences of opinion between Hariri and Lahoud, differences of opinion that would no longer exist should one of them depart. Does this mean privatization and securitization are to take place if Lahoud stays and Hairi leaves? Why it may be the case, no one can really predict the outcome of such a development, and if it would obtain the optimal valuations.

Interest Rates

Changes in government policies regarding revenues and expenditures would surely affect the government ability to borrow funds, and ultimately interest rates. Recent efforts by the Hariri government to lower interest rates in an effort to boost economic growth and reduce the debt-servicing burden on the budget have been haled as somewhat successfully. On the other hand, however, interest rates are mainly a function of two parameters in Lebanon: the demand for money, mainly resulting from government borrowing, and the market’s assessment of the risk associated with lending.

Over the past 18 months, the government has managed to keep a tighter lid on borrowing, and has successfully swapped some long-term debt into another at cheaper rates. With Lahoud’s typically conservative view on spending, the upcoming government might just be successful at keeping a tab on borrowing. The problem, however, may fall on the other side of the equation. Basic economics stipulate that nominal interest rates in any economy are a function of the market’s risk assessment of lending, among other things. Uncertainly yields higher risk, and the uncertainty surrounding Lahoud, a new government, the UN resolution, the US stance on Syria, and the Syrian military presence in Lebanon create an unmatched recipe for uncertainty. Let alone international lenders to the Lebanese government, local lenders – large Lebanese banks – have recently showed reluctance to lend to the government, as illustrated by the significant shrinkages in the government securities portfolios of the banking sector in Lebanon. As such, interest rates are likely to raise, providing a more attractive risk premium to attract potential local and international lenders. Would this adversely affect economic growth and to what extent remains unclear, but a sudden rise in interest rates just as the Lebanese economy may be clawing itself out of recession would probably shove it back into it rapidly.

The banking sector

So how would the famed Lebanese banking sector be affected by such political developments, and how would it respond their various financial and economic implications? As mentioned earlier, banks in Lebanon have been recently reluctant to lend money to the government, thereby reducing their exposure to government securities and the Lebanese pound. While the latter may not be at risk due to the more than sufficient foreign exchange reserves of the central bank, a continued support for the domestic currency, inevitable during times of uncertainty and ill confidence, would seriously strain such resources.

Therefore, the first bank to be affected by such developments would be the central bank, which is likely to struggle to keep the Lebanese pound afloat.

Commercial banks, on the other hand, face a much higher risk. Political instability is often associated with capital flight from the country host to the instability. The extension to Lahoud’s term and the ensuing international upheaval are again casting a blanket of uncertainty over the country, and would, if sustained, drive away funds belonging to Lebanese as well as other Arabs. It is no secret that money follows safety, and a deep rift among the Lebanese people, Syria, the US, the UN, and the rest of the Arab world is far from being a good prescription for financial safety and stability. Aside from potential capital flight, another risk, relating to banks and associated with recent political developments is the cost of sources of funds. Banks in Lebanon have been reluctant to extend corporate loans, and as they are now reducing investments in government securities, they are struggling to find optimal uses of funds for their excess liquidity. Lower interest rates over the past year have failed to create a significant jump in corporate loans and credit facilities, making the task of finding optimal uses of funds even more difficult.

Making things worse, a rise in interest rates would increase the banks’ cost of funds, as rates in deposits would no doubt increase substantially. As such, higher cost of funds coupled with more scarce investment opportunities are likely to adversely impact the sector’s profitability and liquidity. That is, unless, we fall back into the vicious circle where the banks are forced to swallow government debts, the latter is forced to raise interest rates to keep borrowing, and ultimately reach a point where banks are overexposed to country risk and the Lebanese Pound, and the private sector is completely crowded out or unable to function at such high interest rates.

Time, along with Mr. Lahoud, Mr. Assad, Mr. Annan, and Mr. Bush, will tell.

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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For your information

Interminable terminal

by Executive Contributor September 28, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

The saga concerning the private jet terminal at the Beirut airport continues. The new terminal was supposed to open its doors last June, but until now it has not. “We are facing technical problems with the air conditioning and lighting,” said Samir Fakeh, head of the Civil Aviation Department. “The system does not function as it should.”

Fakeh was not able to indicate the exact nature of the problems, nor was the SNAM contracting company responsible for the overall finishing of the 120,000 square meter terminal, which hosts eight VIP lounges, a 300 square meter shopping area and restaurant. No retail space has been rented out yet.

The building took some two years to construct and forms the backbone of a $33 million investment to better facilitate the growing fleet of private jets flying to Beirut. So far, 13 private jet companies from Europe and the Arab world have handed in requests to rent space at the new facility. Despite the delay, none of them has canceled yet, said Fakeh. Still, he would have liked to tap into the busy summer tourist season. He was unable to give an estimation of possible losses, which may run into hundreds of thousands of dollars.

An indication of possibly the real reason for the delay came in Fakeh’s answer to when the facility might open. “Maybe in September,” he said, “but maybe we’ll have to wait for the presidential elections to be over.”

Fakeh did not want to go into further details. It’s no secret, however, that differences in opinion over the second mandate of President Emile Lahoud have paralyzed much in the country. The new VIP facility appears to have fallen into the stagnation trap due to the ambient political rivalries. And like many other sectors, the opportunity costs are swiftly mounting.

Speared by roadwork

From August 3 to 17, the main artery leading to the Murr Tower from Sanayeh and the Hamra district, Spears Street, was closed. As a consequence, many shops were forced to close down temporarily. A leading victim was the Barbar sandwich outlet, which had to close for two weeks, sending home 85 employees and reporting an estimated loss in sales of some $100,000.

“For 23 years Barbar never closed,” said Abed Serwan, the manager of Barbar’s Spears outlet. “But now we did not have a choice.” Serwan complained that for one year there has been work on Spears Street almost every month. Unlike its outlet in Hamra, the Spears outlet depends more on drive-by customers.

Other shops, mainly small groceries and souvenir shops, are estimated to have suffered losses of roughly up to 70% during the period of roadworks. Mustapha Yamout, who runs a tourist pension on Spears, also said that in the past year there have been eight major works and at least 20 minor ones. “Couldn’t that have been done in a more efficient way?” he asked.

The works on Spears are part of an overall project to refurbish some 90 streets in Beirut. “The whole infrastructure for sewage, water and electricity needed changing, after which the road needed re-asphalting,” said the engineer in charge of the operation, William Debs, who works for Elie Selwan contracting company.

According to him, “people always complain,” even though normal procedures were followed in an attempt to reduce discomfort to a minimum. “So, normally we always work on one side of the road, keeping the other side open to traffic.”

But why close Spears Street in the middle of the tourist season? “According to the traffic police,” Debs said, “there’s less traffic in summer, as schools and many offices are closed. Also, the municipality asked us to work during school holidays.” So are the works finished? “We need to put just one more layer of asphalt next month,” Debs said. “But that’s only one night of work.”

Politics and pension funds

The creation of a viable social security net in Lebanon inched a step forward as the cabinet adopted a plan for a national pension project, under which retirees would receive continuous monthly pension payments and be insured for medical services. If passed into law, the plan would gradually replace the one-time end-of-service indemnity payments scheme managed by the National Social Security Funds (NSSF).

The plan’s provisions stipulate that participants can receive pension payments after a minimum employment of 20 years, during which the retiree and his employer would contribute a total of 12.25% of the retiree’s salary: 5% deducted from the salary and 7.25% payment by the employer, up to a salary ceiling of $3,340. Employers would also be responsible to pay a contribution to their employee’s retirement health insurance, amounting to 5% of the salary without a ceiling.

Participation in the scheme would be mandatory for all new employees entering the job market (more than two-thirds of the Lebanese workforce is younger than 35) and all those currently enrolled in the NSSF who were born after 1969. Working persons born before 1969 may participate on a voluntary basis, on condition they do not withdraw their end-of-service indemnity and will have at least 20 years of insured employment at their retirement.

Pension advisors and insurance actuaries Muhanna group, who drew up the pension project for the Lebanese government, set the minimum monthly pension at $120, based on an employee earning a minimum salary of $200 [CORRECT?] over 20 years of membership in the scheme. If he or she is registered for 40 years, the minimum monthly pension would be $240. [CORRECT?] Under the model, a person starting to contribute at a salary of $600 and average annual salary increases of 3% would reach a pension of $642 after 30 work years, or 44% of his final salary.

Given the political stakes involved in the plan (and it was largely depicted in the local media as a defeat for Speaker Nabih Birri, who has considerable influence over the NSSF), debate over the plan is far from complete and adoption of the plan in parliament is anything but certain. After being passed into law, it would take at least two years to implement the scheme.

When Black isn’t beautiful

After an absence of almost 40 years, Chivas Regal has returned to the Lebanese market. But the whisky that was once the by-word for sophisticated drinking is now having to slug it out with the lesser brands in promotion wars fought in the aisles of Lebanon’s supermarkets.

Sales Manager Isabelle Dahan said Chivas intends to become a major market player within three years. What that effectively means is that it hopes to overtake Johnnie Walker Black Label as the market leader – an ambitious undertaking since Black Label currently controls 70% of the deluxe whiskey market and sells for roughly $2 less. The remaining 30% is currently split between Dewar’s Ancestor’s (15%) and a handful of other brands, such as Dimple’s.

Naji Hammoudeh, business manager for KFF Food & Beverage, which distributes Dewar’s, said he expected Chivas to gain a 20% to 30% share of the deluxe market within two to three years. “The domination of Black Label will be significantly reduced,” he predicted. Black Label distributors Diageo didn’t comment.

Chivas Advertising Director Carla Zoghby refused to reveal the amount of the brand’s advertising budget. Dahan declined to reveal sales since the product’s relaunch at the beginning of August, but she said Chivas was being sold “everywhere,” even in corner shops.

Chivas is being promoted through a widespread billboard campaign, as well as in newspapers, magazines and cinemas. Female promoters have also been positioned at various points-of-sale, armed with brochures. So far, Chivas distributors NEXTY are not offering promotional gifts. But, Dahan conceded, they may.

Zoghby dismissed the suggestion that billboard advertising might damage Chivas’ deluxe brand image. “Chivas is a legend,” she stated. At the same time, Dahan acknowledged that below-the-line promotion was never good for brand image, but said that in a market in which other players had embraced the practice, Chivas had no choice but to follow suit.

Little progress after Allawi

The recent visit to Lebanon by Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi produced little in the way of progress on three pressing economic issues: the fate of $500 million deposited by the previous Iraqi regime in Lebanese banks (now in the custody of the central bank); alleged losses incurred by Lebanese exporters who say contracts with Iraq, or Iraqi trade pledges, were not honored once the war ended; and the drastic drop in Lebanon-Iraq trade because of security concerns, which were accentuated by the harassment and kidnapping of truck drivers and businessmen, some of them Lebanese.

For example, the Port of Tripoli has registered a 50% drop in Iraq-bound trade, while road transit from Lebanon to Iraq has plummeted by 70%, denting any optimism generated by Lebanon’s $197.1 million cumulative balance of payments surplus for the first five months of 2004.

“Up until now, there has been nothing on the economic issues,” said Fadi Abboud, president of the Lebanese Industrialists Association. Although the oil, gas, transport and currency sectors were all discussed, observers said Allawi’s visit was primarily of a political nature, designed to improve diplomatic relations between Syria and Lebanon on the one hand, and Iraq on the other. “As long as the security situation in Iraq remains as it is, nothing will be done with respect to the economic matters discussed during Allawi’s visit,” Abboud added.

“I don’t think the issue of the Iraqi deposits will be resolved in the near future,” opined economist Kamal Hamdan. “It will depend on the political situation in Iraq. We may have to wait for elections there, and a legitimization of the political structure.” Hamdan predicted that Lebanese exporters would, eventually, be compensated for actual contracts not honored by Iraq. But he said that Lebanese exporters hoping to be compensated for investments they claim they undertook in response to informal import agreements could be disappointed, in part because of the difficulty in verifying such claims.

Italian furniture, made in Lebanon?

Lebanon has untapped potential to serve Italian furniture makers as a manufacturing base for medium-range lines for the Middle East market. Paying a visit to Lebanon, the president of the Italian federation of wood, cork, furniture and furnishing manufacturers, Roberto Snaidero, told Executive that he is envisioning increased collaboration between members of his association and Lebanese enterprises.

To open more opportunities for Lebanese companies for joint ventures with Italian furniture producers and manufacturers in general, Snaidero organized meetings with industry leaders here and in Italy. “As the president of our association, I now want to go deeply into this matter here in Lebanon,” he said. “This process cannot be resolved in the short term but it is important to begin. I think it is important for us and for Lebanese companies.”

Developing the skill base of engineers and staff in partner firms here would be essential, while large investments would not be a guarantee for success. “Lebanon is not a big market and some countries around it cannot buy the top class of furniture. We have to move into these countries with medium-range furniture, so we can start with investments in the range of $1.5 million to $2 million,” he said.

He pointed to Snaidero Middle East, a kitchen manufacturing joint venture between the Italian Snaidero Group and local partners (Indevco) as a model for such partnerships. Snaidero Middle East, established in 1995 with an investment of $1.3 million in equipment and training, succeeded in marketing its products in 14 countries of the region and today contributes 5% to 6% to the total turnover of Snaidero Group, according to Maro [OR MAURO?] Matiussi, general manager of Snaidero Middle East. “We estimate to have around 10% market share in Lebanon, which we estimate makes us leaders in Lebanon and in the region as a whole,” he said.

Banking on religion

Islamic banking products continue to rise in market appeal, with international and regional banks working to meet demand. The latest Sharia-compliant financial tool to be made available to Lebanese and Middle Eastern investors is the HSBC Amanah Global Equity Index Fund. Launched last month as the first index tracker fund to invest in the 100 largest Sharia-compliant companies by market capitalization, the fund is a product of HSBC Amanah, the Islamic financial services division of leading global banking group HSBC.

Buyers can participate with a minimum of $5,000 in the fund, which is designed to provide them with long-term appreciation of capital through investment in a portfolio of worldwide listed equities that meet Islamic standards. These standards mandate, among other requirements, that companies under investment not be involved in activities such as gaming and alcohol, which are forbidden under the tenets of Muslim faith.

Demand for Sharia-compliant banking products among customers of HSBC Lebanon has been increasing consistently and amounts to “a lot,” confirmed a spokesperson for the bank, who declined, however, to give figures on either the number of private banking clients at the bank’s Lebanon branches or the exact demand for Sharia-compliant products among its customers.

Meanwhile in the local market, Beirut-based Al-Baraka Bank announced that it is opening four new branches. The bank, which operates under Islamic principles, had seen several years of minimal activities in Lebanon until it undertook a restructuring beginning in 2003.

Eating goes upwards

With the number of tourists entering Lebanon reaching an all-time high, business has been booming for Beirut’s retailers and restaurants this summer. Cafés and eateries in the Beirut Central District reported an average increase of some 30% compared to normal year-round sales, and a general increase of 5% to 10% compared to last year. Serge Kirbeh, however, manager of Asia rooftop restaurant, reported a 30% increase compared to the annual average, even though he added that “last year was better.”

Restaurants in other parts of town did well too. George Khoury manager of Amore in Verdun, a traditional hotspot for Arab tourists, reported an increase similar to last year of some 35% compared to spring figures. The management of the Blue Elephant in Raouche estimated July turnover to be up 25% compared to last year, and no less than 200% in August, “thanks to an intensive advertisement campaign.”

But it is not just restaurants that are doing well. “Every summer sales are up some 60%,” said Jihad el Murr, managing director of Virgin Megastore, “not just because of Arab tourists, but also because of the Lebanese who return for holidays.” Most retailers in the downtown reported a figure similar to the ones in the restaurant business.

Likewise, most shops and retailers in the Verdun area experienced a 25% to 30% increase in sales, while lingerie, souvenir and clothing shops in Hamra reported an average increase of some 25%. Though Arab tourists did visit the ABC shopping mall in Ashrafieh, it seems it has not yet become their favorite hangout, as most shops reported an increase of no more than 20%. A comparison with last year is not possible, as the mall only opened its doors six months ago.

Closing the St. Georges blinds?

“We can’t keep the blinds open” said Fadi Khoury, chairman of the once magnificent St. Georges Hotel. “They will be able to see me and I can’t risk that.” After more than a decade of fighting, often very publicly, with Solidere and the Beirut municipality, both in the courts and in the press, Khoury initially comes off as determined to press ahead with his vision of reconstructing what was once Beirut’s, and the region’s, star attraction for the rich and famous. “I will not sell out, never!” he told Executive.

While the last two scraps have kept up the image of Fadi the fighter, the culmination of so many years of battling has clearly left him fatigued even as he pulls out map after map of what has, for him, been an exhaustive exercise in the complications, contradictions and “injustices” of Beirut’s rebirth.

Khoury acknowledges that the long-running saga on rebuilding the St. Georges has also taken its toll on his personal fortune. Several years ago, the authorities ripped up the hotel’s berths that were bringing him an average of $1.5 million in annual boat docking fees. Shortly thereafter, he had to endure various municipal obstacles to fully operating his beach club – his main source of revenue. Now, he says, “My revenues have been cut to so little. I have virtually no way to make a profit.” A pathway to the oceanfront, a reduced sea wall, his old piers and permission to build are all that he wants, he says. The crusading sound bytes of public space, “just compensation” and “anti-monopolistic development” would all stop there – he is, after all, a businessman.

As he adjusts one of his many remote cameras from his desk to close in on what he calls an illegal Solidere office trailer near the St Georges, Khoury adds, softly, almost to himself, “I don’t know how long this can continue.”

September 28, 2004 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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