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Finance

Beating the odds

by Thomas Schellen January 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Optimism has for years been a prominent feature of Lebanese banking, a central nerve embedded into the firm spine of conservatism that upholds the Lebanese banking and finance industries. The country’s banks all have reasons to ooze optimism, given the sector’s overwhelming importance in the national economy and their performance record of deposit security over decades while the country was drenched in deeply flawed politics, violent internal strife, regional warfare, and occupation.

Even if their business had been stagnant last year, Lebanese banks would have enough reasons to feel emboldened by 2003 for two facts. Namely, that they contributed an important onus to the year’s fiscal stabilization through their profitless subscription to special T-Bills and that the sector emerged unscathed from a fraud and mismanagement crisis centering on Bank Al Madina and its opaque business dealings. But far beyond staying afloat and managing the impact of their sacrifice on the altars of fiscal recovery, banking did not at all see a standstill or slacking of growth in 2003.

Nonetheless, banking representatives exhibited one curious change of perspective. Lebanon’s big commercial banks in earlier years had often harbored concerns over basic size limitations they had in comparison to the region’s big banking corporations or the possibility of international competitors intruding onto their markets. At the end of this year, they came to say that Lebanon is too small a market for the deposits under their management. Prominent members of the finance industry viewed 2003 with satisfaction for sector and companies. “The performance of the Lebanese banking sector was generally good in 2003. Annual profits will maintain their 2002 level, even though third-quarter profits were lower than those of the first quarter,” said Saad Azhari, general manager of the country’s largest bank, BLOM. With year-on-year growth of about 23 % in assets and deposits by the end of September, BLOM Bank performed above the sector’s good overall deposit growth, which is expected to reach 15 % for 2003. “As such, our market share in deposits increased to over 15 %,” Azhari said. “The bank’s profitability remained high, given that the first nine months net profits of 2003 reached $66 million.”

The runners up were equally upbeat. Banque Audi announced its third quarter results, claiming an increase in market share to nearly 12% and having captured over 30% of the sector’s total deposit growth. At Byblos Bank, where year-on-year growth of assets and deposits was reported at 39% and 31% at the end of the third quarter, assistant general manager Semaan Bassil told EXECUTIVE, “Relative to what is going on in the market, our profits are more than adequate.”

While the retail banking leaders may have been fortifying their positions, players in specialized banking and finance houses also could spread word of good tidings. “The main point in 2003 for us was a 17% increase in deposits and 20% growth in profitability, as values BEMO is expecting to close the year with” said Ronald Yazbek, assistant general manager at Banque Europeenne pour le Moyen Orient (BEMO). The bank had been strengthening its specialization on private and corporate banking and already harvested the first fruits of measures such as expanding its private banking team and entering into a partnership with Riyadh-based Banque Saudi Fransi. At another specialized bank, an executive did unhesitatingly express his pleasure over the mid-sized institution’s performance, even as asset growth would be below the sector average. “We are pursuing the opposite strategy, emphasizing profit growth and not asset growth,” he said, “2003 was an excellent year. But 2004 will be challenging.”

Cautious notes dominate the melodies, which many in the choir of banking leaders intone regarding the coming year. “As for 2004, we expect a squeeze in banks’ profitability,” Azhari said, giving as the first main reasons for the lowered outlook that banks’ stock of high-interest T-Bills acquired pre-Paris II would mature in the course of the year, along with high-interest, two-year deposits with the central bank. As a second reason, the BLOM executive named “higher decrease in interest rates on loans and advances as compared to the decrease in interest rates on deposits, thus leading to further drops in banks’ interest margins.”

His bank expects continuous asset growth, he added, “and we will have to redouble our efforts to maintain the same level of profits as in 2003, due to the reasons that apply to the banking sector as a whole.”

Current profit margins cannot be sustained in 2004, concurred Bassil. “Banks will have to be more stringent in provisioning,” he said, “this will result in lower net profits.” Lower growth in the economy and lower profitability would lead Byblos and other banks to rationalize, restructure and consolidate their business. “It will push banks to rationalize faster, more systematically, and assure that every dollar spent will bring a certain level of return.”

“We don’t see any problems, to the contrary, we see very good prospects for the coming year. For us, 2004 is very positive,” Yazbek opined in a vote of fundamental optimism. BEMO is less exposed than others to certain risks, and expects further benefits from the base it created in 2003. More detailed, BEMO anticipates a boost for the business at its Cyprus branch after Cyprus becomes full EU member next May, and also foretold “good synergies” that would arise for the Beirut operation from BEMO’s participation with Saudi-Fransi in the new Syrian banking venture, scheduled to assume operations still before end of 2003. As far as upward expectations for the coming year at BLOM, Azhari pointed out expansion plans in the local and regional markets, including opening two new branches here, a third in Amman, and the launch of the “Bank of Syria and Overseas” in Damascus in early 2004. Bassil similarly emphasized that Lebanese banks would need to utilize growth opportunities in other countries. Bank Byblos’ venture in Sudan signified a pioneering achievement for the entire sector here by marking the first instance in which a Lebanese bank addressed a local market abroad. “Sudan is an important step for us, a test and learning curve,” he said. “We will be putting all our efforts and energy into it over the coming period, and after one or two years, will see the outcome.”

Compared to the banking sector, Lebanon’s financial firms still have large uncharted territories to explore at home. For financial institutions, brokers and trading houses, 2003 was a year of regaining much needed momentum. At independent finance house Financial Funds Advisors (FFA), chairman Jean Riachi sounded exceedingly satisfied in comparison to the past few years. “2003 was a good year for us in terms of increasing our customer account base,” he said. “We have also seen an increase in terms of revenue, knowing that we are coming from a low base because 2001 and 2002 were bad years.” FFA received good responses to funds it was marketing in collaboration with a European issuer, GLG, and could embolden the volume of its money management business. Similar moods prevailed at the Arab Finance Corporation (AFC). “The company is doing much better than last year at this point in time,” said general manager Tarek Ahdab. “AFC is positioned to profit from any upturn in the market. In the past six months, we saw a nice upturn.” Both finance houses implemented new internet-based trading facilities in 2003. FFA launched online currency trading at the end of the summer and AFC introduced two platforms in autumn, AFC Futures and AFC Securities. Even as they expect 2004 to continue the positive trends of the last six months, brokers and finance houses restrain these hopes to their activities on international markets where the outlooks are great. “In my opinion, we are at the beginning of a long-term bull market,” Riachi said, adding as general note of caution “but I could be wrong.”

By contrast, Riachi’s view on domestic financial markets resembles a sheer outpouring of positive will power. “We have not surrendered to the idea that the Lebanese market is dead,” he said. “We desperately believe that it can be revived. It is our raison d’etre.” AFC similarly would see their true edge in the local and regional markets while relying on trading in international markets on behalf of its clients for their bread and butter business. ”We are reasonably optimistic about the country,” Ahdab said, but the firm’s strategy would remain focused on electronic trading platforms and foreign markets, plus continuing to build the client base and increasing advisory business in steady and slow growth. “We are in a tough business in a tough environment, competitor wise, local market wise, and in relation to political and geopolitical risks. Any progress is going to be a slow one.”

With important measures for the regulation of Lebanon’s financial markets still outside of visibility, advocating Beirut as base of a financial firm is still a tough challenge, but the FFA chairman insisted that it would be viable. “Disposable wealth exists and the rate of new account openings [at FFA] is accelerating,” he said. “We believe our model – a small finance house in Beirut serving people for their investments – is working for us. We could even increase it. But unfortunately, we don’t see a great deal of interest in the Lebanese market.”

Where Lebanese bankers and finance house managers echo each other in agreement is their views on the impact of fateful national decisions (or indecisions) on their business. End-of-service reforms and public sector productivity increases are a must for Lebanon, along with privatization and securitization of state assets, Azhari said. “The implications of further delays will negatively affect the level of the public debt and the budget deficit. Consequently, the national and international confidence in the recovery of the Lebanese economy and in finding a permanent solution to the budget deficit’s problem will quickly vanish.” “The last few years were tough. However, it could still get worse,” said Ahdab. “Anything that stops or slows reforms is not going to have a good impact. If debt continues to grow and they never privatize, things could get worse.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Toy story

by Anissa Rafeh January 1, 2004
written by Anissa Rafeh

Providing established brands at an affordable price has helped Toy Market Trading sell an estimated $14 million worth of toys in 2003. This represents 35% of the $40 million local toy market and it has China to thank. Cheaper operating costs have allowed the major international toy manufacturers to be more competitive and Toy Market Trading today imports 90% of its toys from the growing industrial superpower. “You get what you pay for in China,” said Wael Sinno, toy division manager at Toy Market Trading and son of Kamal Sinno, who founded the company in 1973. “All the main US toy brands like Chicco and Mattel have factories there.” The China factor, coupled with a slashing of import tariffs from 25% to 5%, has seen Toy Market Trading experience an 8% year-on-year growth for 2003, despite a wintry economic climate. Toy Market Trading – which distributes its products to 750 retailers, including BHV, Spinneys and Fahd Supermarket – employs a staff of 52 as well eight salesmen covering the Lebanese market and three drivers employed to distribute the goods.

Understandably, 40% to 45% of annual revenues come from Christmas and other holiday sales, but the summer season, from April to August, are also crucial selling months because of the sales of outdoor sports items, including bikes, skateboards and pool accessories, among others.

According to Sinno, an average parent or child will spend approximately $300 to $350 on toys per year, with an average of $10 to $15 doled out per toy. During Christmas, however, the average spent per toy increases to about $25 to $35. Toy Market Trading, however, aims to offer clients a wide variety of affordable toys of good quality by providing two to three brands of similar products in different price ranges. “We cater to all types of budgets, even if that means we compete against our own products,” explained Sinno.

Affordable playthings, like balls and water pistols, and high-end toys, like remote control cars and lifelike dolls, comprise a ratio of 60:40 of cheaper to more expensive toys. Some of Toy Market’s main brands, for example, like Blue Box and Playgo offer products that are as much as 30% cheaper than Fisher-Price toys, even though all three produce similar products for pre-schoolers. Some of the hot selling items this season are “everything funky and trendy,” said Sinno, like the Brats (not distributed by Toy Market Trading), which are the anti-Barbie doll. Toy trends usually last up to a maximum of one to two years, except for classic mainstays like Barbie and Disney toys, which have been successful for years. But coming up with a top seller in toys is becoming increasingly difficult in the computer and internet age, especially with eight- to 10-year olds. As a result, Toy Market Trading has shifted focus on pre-school items, targeting six-month- to five-year-olds. “We now have to be very selective,” said Sinno.

Some of their past successes included the pottery wheel, which sold 12,000 units at about $25 each. Other toy hits imported by the company included an ice-cream maker, and a talking pen made by educational toy brand Clementoni. In addition to their successes, Toy Market Trading has also suffered some misses.

“The pregnant doll was not very well received,” admitted Sinno, who explained that the doll, imported in 1993, came with another plastic baby inside the belly of the main ‘mother’ doll. “It was mainly opposed by religious people.”

Surprisingly, film merchandizing has also not done very well in Lebanon. “HARRY POTTER was a failure and HULK was a disaster,” said Sinno. Only very few films have succeeded in merchandizing in the country. “THE LION KING was a great success – we were selling lions for about three years [when the film was released]. ALADDIN was also a hit.”

Other than dealing with toys that flop, Toy Market Trading and the other importers also have to contend with illegal importers. Sinno admitted that his company loses up to $600,000 a year from smugglers who purchase cheap toys from Dubai – where there are no tariffs – and import them into the country through Syria. In fact, illegal traders are what Sinno consider the greatest competition to his company, and not the three other main importers (Middle East Market, Tamer Freres and Boch).

“Retailers are not going to buy from me at prices 10% higher than smuggled toys. They want the best price they can get and this is understandable,” said Sinno. Sinno explained that the lax laws concerning the toy industry extend further than implementing controls over smuggling. “Lebanon is an open chaotic market that is still underdeveloped with no safety regulations,” he said. As a result of Lebanon’s complete lack of regulations, said Sinno, the Syndicate of Toy Importers and Dealers – which was founded by his father – takes the initiative to not import toys that are unsafe. Most recently, the Syndicate decided to stop importing pellet guns and worked with the ministry of the interior to have them banned. “These guns are made China, but even the Chinese government has banned them,” said Sinno, adding that despite the Lebanese ban, illegal importers have made these dangerous toys available in the country.

Although the smuggling business is indeed lucrative, Sinno has no intention to stray from the straight and narrow. “We go by the book 100%,” he said. It is a policy that has kept them on top of their game, together with a new strategy they have adopted over the past five years to shift the focus on brand loyalty as opposed to just importing Chinese items. “We are now focusing on the brands,” said Sinno, who explained that such an approach, is one way to escape competition and to build loyalty among customers. The strategy seems to be working for the company, which currently enjoys its status as the leading toy importer in the country. As to the secret of their success, Sinno put it simply: “A class products for the most competitive prices.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Finance

Efficiency not mediocrity

by Executive Staff January 1, 2004
written by Executive Staff

In the first nine months of 2003, four main developments were observed: the unexpected rate of growth in bank’s deposits or in monetary aggregate M3, the sector’s participation in easing the state’s debt burden; the reduction of interest rates; the creation of a mechanism to review and settle non-performing loans.

(I) Growth of M3

We were surprised by the extent of the commercial banks’ balance sheet growth, mainly in the deposit base growth. This is reflected by the growth of the monetary aggregate (M3: amount of money in circulation plus deposits at banks), which increased by 14% from September 2002 to September 2003. Usually, M3 grows by real and nominal growth, credit to the private economy plus credit to the public economy and by the changes in net foreign assets (balance of payments) if the balance is positive. M3 decreases if there is flight of money from Lebanon to abroad.

The 14% increase of M3 far outpaced the growth of the economy overall, which reached only 2%. The growth of M3 under normal circumstances should not be larger than the growth of the economy plus a value slightly exceeding inflation. Inflation in Lebanon is around 4%. When added to the 2% real growth, it means that a 7% increase in M3 is justifiable by nominal growth of GDP. But what about the remaining 7%? A notable factor in the development of money supply in 2003 was the inflow of capital to Lebanon. Many sources contributed to this inflow, including:

• $2.4 billion entered the country under commitments from Paris II.

• $1.2 billion was contributed in deposits from non-residents. • $400 million came from the repatriation of foreign deposits.

• $1.0 Billion or more from other capital accounts (i.e. real estate investments etc.).

(II) The Public Debt Service burden

The banking sector’s engagement was instrumental in the facilitation of the drop in public sector debt service through the Paris II mechanism, which acted directly through the acquisition by the banking sector of zero-percent T-Bills contributing to reduce the debt service by $383 million per year. The sector will be indirectly contributing to another LL400 billion in debt service reduction through the subscription to new issues of T-Bills to replace those maturing in 2004.

The interest rate reduction from 14% to 8% is considered “unusual business” and the IMF doubted the banking sector’s ability to decrease the public debt and reduce interest rates.

While the banking community delivered what we promised, the government did not. Primary expenditures – i.e., public expenditures without the debt service – increased instead of decreasing, allowing the fiscal deficit to reach 38% to 39% while the initial budgeted figure was 27%.

(III) The decrease in interest rates

Claims that falls in the interest rate decreases affected only deposits and not lending rates, is wrong. In truth, while the income of banks from deposits with the central bank decreased, double shifting mutation in rates and volumes caused a decrease in the profitability of the banking industry’s credit portfolio.

If we take into consideration not only changes in interest rate but also changes in the structure of invested funds, we can clearly see that the returns on bank placements decreased during the period from September 2002 to September 2003 at a rate wider than the decrease of the cost of the bank’s deposits. This shrunk the margins by 14% for the mentioned period. As the portion in total assets that consists of loans to the private sector decreased, the share of the sovereign risk (central bank and treasury) increased just as dramatically as the public sector lending rates decreased, doubly affecting the profits of banks.

It is thus more accurate to say that the drop in interest rates did not equally reflect on lending to the private sector, which became 12% cheaper, while the sovereign borrower benefited from an interest rate reduction averaging 21%.

(IV) A framework to settle problematic bank loans

After one year of negotiation, a framework to settle non-performing loans (NPLs) on banks’ books was achieved in cooperation with the central bank. This framework applies to both (1) the relation between the banks and its clients and (2) the relation between the banks and the supervisory authorities.

1. In the dealings between banks and clients (debtors), three main pillars govern the relations:

a. Unrealized interest rates are partly written off by applying reduced interest rates on the initial debt stock.

b. The debt stock is reduced by way of acquiring the real estate that served as collateral. Banks acquire these properties at good evaluation agreed upon with the Banking Control Commission. c. The remaining debt balance is rescheduled over a long-term period of five to 10 years, reduced interest rates agreed upon between client and bank.

2) The relation between the bank and supervisory authority is managed through a three-tiered scheme: a. Defining of the accounting methodology in provisions on settled and unsettled problem loans. b. Allowing a long period, up to 20 years, of provisioning of real estate, which banks have acquired from debtors under their loan-rescheduling scheme. c. Granting banks the possibility to rediscount, totally or partially, the securitized debt of the clients with BDL if the bank needs liquid assets to clear its balance sheets. In its entirety, this instrumentation provided for rescheduling of non-performing loans, if well and adequately used by bankers, will support the process of revitalizing the economy and resume new activities through restructuring the corporate sector.

What strategy for the coming years?

Looking towards the future, it is prudent to go beyond analyzing the main developments of 2003, as mentioned above, and review the larger situation of the banking industry and its strategic needs.

For this task, it is helpful to take stock of the numbers as they stand after a decade of strong banking growth. The most telling figure in this context is the ratio between total assets/liabilities held by banks and Lebanon’s GDP. This ratio stands today at 315% by the end of September 2003. It is the highest worldwide among “normal” countries.

How much of these liabilities are invested domestically is key to understanding the Lebanese economy from a banking perspective. Most of these resources are invested locally, therefore, the economy is enduring the cost of these bank’s liabilities. By the end of September 2003, 16% of bank assets were invested abroad, and the remaining 84% in the country (domestic placements). Of these domestic placements, 26% were in the private sector, 54% with the sovereign (23% at the central bank and 31% at the Lebanese treasury) and 4% in fixed and unclassified assets.

In simple terms, the banking sector has outgrown the Lebanese economy and domestic economic growth. It grew eight to 10 times in the last 10 years – while the Lebanese economy did not grow as fast.

Even if interest rates – i.e., the price – decrease further, the quantity of credits and loans to the economy (public and private) will still constitute a heavy weight and therefore a heavy cost on the economy. Capital funds have become very big also compared to domestic needs. Our international capital adequacy ratio exceeds 18% while Basel I Committee has set it at 8%.

Why does the Lebanese banking industry have to turn over a new leaf? The current model of banking growth was sustainable until today because of two factors: 1. The Lebanese community and some Arab funds repatriated part of its wealth to Lebanon, enabling our deposit base to widen without any relation with domestic economic growth. 2. The state, central bank and treasury became our main client (54% of our assets in September 2003) and both of them accepted to extend to a maximum their foreign currency debt. This policy helped a lot by providing fresh blood to this dollarized model in one hand and by providing the banking industry with good placement opportunity in another hand.

This pattern of attracting more funds from abroad can only continue if we keep interest rates at high levels, which are unsustainable by our domestic economy. This is a paradox situation.

When public and private sectors have difficulties to service their debt it is a clear signal that this model is no longer sustainable and should be revisited sooner better than later. This leaves us with the need to export our services abroad as only way to remedy the situation. Two recent signs confirm that the banking industry became too big for the Lebanese economy. The 0% coupon T-Bills to the public sector and the framework to settle the NPLs applying reduced interest rates.

If we want the banking sector to continue to grow and if we want the banking industry to continue to realize profits and good return on equities and assets (ROE, ROA), it has become necessary to diversify our placements to other countries and markets.

That means we have to export our banking services to countries like Syria, Iraq, Armenia, Algeria, Sudan, Libya, and other countries where the banking industry is not developed. We also need to enhance and strengthen our financing services to Lebanese communities abroad, and to look seriously for cross-border mergers and acquisitions with active Arab banking industries.

In summary, international and regional expansion is the only strategy to guarantee sound and further growth of the Lebanese banking industry, entailing three options for development that will not place an undue burden on the national economy of having to carry the weight of the enormous deposits base:

1. Expand into neighboring countries and optimize physical presence there.

2. Supply services in foreign markets, especially to the Lebanese expatriate business community.

3. Penetrate new markets through cross border and regional mergers and acquisitions.

Fortunately, based on the sector’s many strong points, and because over the past ten years we undertook a multi-dimensional restructuring and reorganization of our industry from within the prospects for exporting Lebanese banking services are good.

This reorganization has been characterized by achievements in following areas:

1. We refurbished and improved our human resources. This is a main factor needed to compete regionally and internationally.

2. We introduced very adequate management systems and technologies, including good manuals of policies and procedures.

3. We are complying with international standards in many important areas. Lebanese banks fulfill the current Basle requirements for capital adequacy ratio and the standards set for lending to related parties and lending to a single large borrower. We are also up to global standards in accounting and auditing, and rules on disclosure, transparency and combating money laundering etc. Lebanon has good supervision authorities that operate according to BIS principles of supervision.

4. We acquired during the last 15 years a lot of know-how in dealing with the dollarization of economies and in operating under very aggressive and risky environments.

Lebanon’s banking industry appears to be very well positioned regionally because it fully achieved these improvements and it is very well equipped to more important cross–border activity.

A further avenue for banking sector growth in Lebanon should be mentioned here. This would be to finance industrial activities, which are destined fully for export. To implement this strategy could require collaboration with international organizations to promote our exports. But even more essential for mobilization of Lebanon’s export capacities is a very good vision on behalf of the regulator. This is the role of the government. It should elaborate a new approach, new vision, and new model to induce the growth of our economy.

Fulfilling this role would imply many steps and taking strong measures, examples for which would be interventions with the Arab countries as well as the EU in support of Lebanese exports. It is up to the state as regulatory force in the economy to work towards better conditions for production by providing incentives, decreasing costs and preparing a reliable framework and consistent operating conditions. At the current stage, and in all these matters, one question must be asked: Where is the state? We have a heavy state with limited efficiency and productivity. We urgently need in Lebanon to redefine the role of the state in the economy, to rediscover where is the adequate dosage to be set between the state and the market. This hydride economic model of ultra-liberalism and ultra interventionism in the same time is no more appropriate for our country. We need a much more equilibrated liberal socio-economic model. We need a smaller and more efficient public sector and a state with a real vision for the future. The reason for this culture of NPLs is our non-performing and mediocre state.

The banking community and the banking authority are a necessary part of the problems and solutions of the economy. Whenever we have had a good program we have always been able to deliver our part of it.

Dr. Makram Sader is the secretary general of the Association of Banks in Lebanon

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Capturing Ramadan

by Anissa Rafeh January 1, 2004
written by Anissa Rafeh

It started as the $40,000 pet project of a young entrepreneur in 1995 and ended up a trend that today seems to have been with us forever. The Ramadan tent, originally an Egyptian invention, was stunningly simple in that it offered a venue for people to meet and socialize after breaking the fast. Today, such is their popularity that practically every major hotel has jumped on the bandwagon, raking in as much as $550,000 for the month.

“I came to Lebanon in 1992 after living in Egypt and realized there was nothing to do in the evening for SOHOOR during Ramadan – there was only Barbar,” said Wassim Tabbara, who started the first Ramadan tent eight years ago at the age of 26.

While successfully participating in the organization of an Egyptian week in Lebanon with the Lebanese-Egyptian Association, of which he was a member, Tabbara had the idea of bringing an Egyptian-themed tent to Beirut. Patching together several boy scout tents provided by the Makassid Foundation, and spending about $20,000 on accessories from Egypt – including tablecloths, Egyptian NARGILEHS and an old Egyptian FURN – Tabbara set up shop in a family-owned plot of land by the LAU. With seating for 130 people, the tent was an instant success and packed to capacity every night. The menu offered the traditional SAHOOR fair, including MANAKESH and SAHLAB, and entertainment consisted of NARGILEHS, a TV set and music playing from a cassette deck. There was no cover charge and the average customer spent about $8 to $10. “I had a lot of costs, so I did not make huge profits,” admitted Tabbara, “it was my first experience in the food business.”

It was an experiment, however, that proved successful despite the paltry returns. “Everyone called for reservations, but I did not take any to be fair. So, by 7pm, people would send their drivers to wait in line till we opened at 8pm to reserve tables,” said Tabbara. “When we would tell people they couldn’t come in because we ran out of chairs, they would go home, bring a chair and come back. It was really funny.”

With such popularity, Tabbara had discovered an untapped market, but by the next year, in true Lebanese fashion, others wanted a piece of the action. The Coral Beach and the Escape club both opened tents in 1996. Both provided serious competition to Tabbara’s second tent, which by now had moved to the newly renovated BCD. The second tent saw profits increase fivefold, but by 1997, a sponsorship dispute and government red tape forced Tabbara to abandon his project. By now, Khaymat al Hanna had opened its doors and Tabbara’s previous alliance with Future TV was abruptly severed to solely advertise Bcharra Namour’s venture. After nine days of tough negotiating, Future reinstated its agreement with Tabbara, but as it was nearly two weeks into the month, and much of the financial momentum was already lost. “I was shocked [by Future’s actions],” said Tabbara. “And then the ministry of tourism said they would not give me a permit to open a tent [the next year] because all the hotels complained about the competition. In the end, I just gave up.”

Although Tabbara is no longer in the business for now –

“maybe I’ll come back with a KHAYMI next year” – he certainly paved the way for Ramadan tents today. There is no clearer legacy to his innovation than the splendid tents operated by Lebanon’s finest hotels.

“There is a good market for Ramadan tents, but unfortunately in Beirut, there is no high quality in terms of décor, entertainment and food. That’s why we focus on those parts,” said Simon Saade, food and beverage manager at the InterContinental Phoenicia. “We wanted to have a tent for the people to enjoy the luxury and ambiance of Ramadan.” Part of that luxurious ambiance includes extravagant decorations á la 1001 Nights, which one insider estimated at costing $200,000. Still, with a seating capacity of 640, a relatively full house every night of the month, and the average customer doling out $28 a night on a set menu (not including a NARGILEH), the expense seems worth it. Just across the street, however, is the more rustic Fishawi tent, run by the St. Georges Yacht Motor Club, which does not have a set menu. According to Michel Farhat, the operations manager at the St. Georges, the average client spent about $20 a night at the Egyptian-themed tent, which included a LL10,000 cover charge for the live entertainment.

“The Fishawi tent offered people something simple, an affordable way of capturing the idea of Ramadan,” Farhat explained. “The Phoenicia tent was more upscale.”

Operation costs for running a Ramadan tent vary according to type. At the Phoenicia, for example, about 80% of the tent staff consisted of fulltime employees in the food and beverage department at the hotel, which kept overhead down. “We used our own people to construct everything [in the tent] and we saved money by using our own people. It has proven a successful business experience,” said Saade. For establishments that do not have a hotel’s business to rely on, they are faced with a different situation. For the St. Georges, the Fishawi tent was an effective way of keeping its summertime staff (from it’s beach club) employed during the winter, which would otherwise be a dead season. Farhat estimated overhead costs at $50,000 to $60,000, with $30,000 spent on advertising and live entertainment. At the end of Ramadan, Farhat estimated the revenues of Fishawi at $133,000.

Although hotel and resort ventures have proven successful –Saade admitted that the Phoenicia tent has been packed since it’s opening in 2001 and Farhat said that 2003 profits from Fishawi increased by 10% from 2002 – independents like Tabbara were not so lucky. “I spent $300,000 on my third tent,” said Tabbara, “and I lost 33% of my profits [because of the Future TV deal fallout].” For the first nine days of the holy month, out of the 1,500 seats available, only about 200 to 300 were filled each night – which was catastrophic considering the $80,000 monthly rental fee of the BCD lot. Tabbara also faced backlash from religious clerics, who associated him with tents that featured dancing, although he did not permit such activity at his establishment. “I was very strict about dancing because I knew people would talk about it. But the Mufti sent a representative to talk to me because they [the clergy] did not know any other tent owners.”

Respecting religious customs is very important to most established tents. Almost none serve alcohol or feature racy entertainers like belly dancers. “This is something we can’t joke about; we respect tradition,” said Farhat. It is a notion firmly upheld by the Phoenicia, said Saade. “We respect this month and keep it in high value.”

As for the man who started it all, what is his opinion about the Ramadan tents of today? “I liked the Phoenicia tent; it was very nice,” said Tabbara. “But the problem with tents today is the loud music – you can’t talk to anybody. It would be better if they just lowered the volume.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Finance

Battling debt

by Tony Hchaime January 1, 2004
written by Tony Hchaime

The Lebanese government’s successful efforts to put on hold the almost weekly auction of Lebanese Pound Treasury Bills some nine months ago is a positive development many. Local and international economists attributed the move to the substantial increase in liquidity levels pursuant to the Paris II donor conference held during the fall of 2002. The $4 billion drawn during the Paris II conference, coupled with the $4 billion interest-free loan provided to the government by Lebanese banks, have resulted in a surge in liquidity levels, which allowed the government to stop borrowing locally through T-Bills.

As the year draws to a close, however, the treasury is opening up its auction doors once again, borrowing domestically through the issuance of new T-Bills, with maturities ranging from one year to three years. The motives behind such a move have been debated often among leading bankers and economists, in the light of the performance of the government in 2003, and the new draft budget for 2004.

Initially, the conditions set during the Paris II donor conference included radical fiscal and monetary reforms, proper initiation of the privatization of some state assets, and efforts to securitize the proceeds of others. However it seems that the funds attracted during the conference, as well as the interest-free loan by the banks, have been used to partially reduce interest on some of the public debt, and mostly to cover the steep deficit in the budget.

As such, the money was never intended to solve the problems of the government, but was rather a means to undertake economic reforms and privatization. Such efforts are ultimately used to significantly trim the deficit, spur economic growth and stop the need for additional borrowing – all of which are seemingly beyond any imminent materialization in the case of Lebanon. The money raised in 2002 was used rapidly to cover the budget deficit and has since dried up in less than a year. The direct consequence of such developments is the recently highlighted return to T-Bill auctions.

A major portion of the funds obtained during and pursuant to Paris II was used to replace existing debt obligations with new ones at lower interest rates. This has resulted in the much-lauded reduction in general interest rates in the country. As such, the new T-Bills auctioned by the ministry of finance yield between 6.85% and 8.72%, a significant drop from the 14% or higher yields common prior to Paris II, to levels unseen in over 20 years.

Moreover, it should be taken into consideration that if the government succeeds in maintaining such low interest rates while simultaneously replacing existing high yielding debt with such T-Bills, the overall cost of debt burden would be significantly reduced.

On the other hand, the government’s ability to succeed in such an endeavor should be assessed, given the sizeable deficits in the budget, and the slow pace in the implementation of reforms and privatization plans.

A comparison between borrowings through Treasury bills and the interest rates on such securities shed some light as to the government’s ability to maintain low interest rates (see chart). Historically, lower interest rates have been accompanied by lower levels of borrowing. In essence, there have been rare periods where the levels of T-Bill issues have been sustained with dropping yields.

In economic terms, the yield on any security rises with the risk associated with such a security. In this regard, the government had managed to improve its image and comfort investors following Paris II, with the central bank foreign exchange reserves reaching record highs. Such developments reduced the perception of default risk on the government, devaluation risk on the national currency, and thus justified the lower interest rates on the newly issued T-Bills. Recent developments, however, have begun to raise concerns once again, and political bickering has delayed many critical reform plans. A number of adverse factors are appearing on the horizon and are likely to render investors more risk averse. The regional arena is plagued by the situation in Iraq, increased terrorist activities in Saudi Arabia and Turkey and the slow pace of the peace process. On the domestic front, the scene does not look any better. The year 2004 is expected to witness heated presidential and municipal election campaigns, overshadowed by the Hariri-Lahoud feuds. Furthermore, much uncertainty surrounds the government’s ability to take concrete steps towards economic reforms, privatization, and securitization, and ultimately reduce the debt burden. In essence then, such increasing uncertainties are likely to push interest rates higher in the market, and consequently force the government to offer higher yields on T-Bills if it chooses to pursue this method of borrowing.

On another front, positive signs are beginning to show in the western economies, increasing the likelihood of higher interest rates globally over the next 18 months. Such increases will also have to be reflected in the yields of any securities sold on the Lebanese market, including the government’s Treasury Bills. Some argue that since the central bank will absorb a considerable portion of each issue of T-Bills – as it has done previously – interest rates may be more resilient to upward pressures. Nevertheless, although the central bank has done so occasionally, the bulk remains in the hands of banks and private investors (see chart). This renders interest rates much more sensitive to market pressures.

Banks in Lebanon are known to have profited substantially from T-Bill investments in the past, and are not likely to appreciate the sharply lower returns on similar investments offered currently. Nevertheless, the currently low rates of return on alternative uses of funds may encourage banks to invest in T-Bills. The credit situation in the country has been severely damaged by the economic recession of the past three years, while global interest rates remain at record low levels. In such a sense, the yields of 7% and 8% offered on the new T-Bills do appear attractive. On the other hand, rising global interest rates and improvements in the economic situation in the country could spawn various alternative investment opportunities. A direct correlation exists between the T-Bill yield spread over LIBOR and banks’ portfolios of such securities. As such, it is expected that as global interest rates rise and the spread between Lebanese T-Bill yields and LIBOR narrows, Lebanese banks are likely to trim their T-Bill portfolios in favor of other investments (see chart). Therefore, the government will be forced to raise interest rates to maintain or increase the spread over LIBOR in order to entice banks to keep purchasing T-Bills.

On the income side, recent figures released by banks in Lebanon reveal a marked improvement in the bottom line, despite the lack of T-Bills over the past nine months. Such a development indicates that perhaps banks are no longer as dependent on T-Bill returns as they were in previous years, and that they have successfully sought alternative sources of income.

Pressures on the Lebanese Pound have always been a major topic debated in government circles over the past years and have often put a strain on the central bank’s foreign reserves during its efforts to stabilize the currency.

As the government attempts to lower interest rates across the board through the issuance of T-Bills at markedly lower interest rates, concerns arise as to the impact of such a move on the Lebanese pound. Basic economics stipulate that as interest rates drop in one country relative to others, demand on the domestic currency also drops. In the case of Lebanon, this would theoretically reignite pressures on the Lebanese pound, forcing the central bank to tap into its foreign reserves to offset the pressure.

On the other hand, even the sharply lower interest rates on the Lebanese Pound remain at a significant premium to interest rates on international currencies. As such, the drop in demand on the currency resulting from lower interest rates is likely to be limited in the near term. Conversely though, if global interest rates were to rise, reducing the premium offered on Lebanese pound investments, demand on the currency would begin to drop, and pressures would begin to mount. Nevertheless, such a concern is somewhat distant and of little concern, especially since the central bank has recently accumulated record levels of foreign currency reserves, enough to defend the national currency if need be.

However, while the significantly lower interest rates on the securities would be a welcomed move in terms of reducing the cost of debt burden on the budget, a number of concerns arise based on historical developments and expected future ones.

The ability of the government to maintain the low interest rates is questionable. The use of the funds obtained through such auctions should be closely assessed. Debt levels are continuing to rise, and efforts to trim the budget deficit have yet to meet reasonable success. In such a sense, will the funds obtained through T-Bills be used to facilitate the implementation of economic reforms, privatization and securitization… or will they be used to just cover the deficit and contribute to the growth in our public debt levels?

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Turning a page

by Godfrey Blakeley January 1, 2004
written by Godfrey Blakeley

Saqi Books, an independent publishing company run by two Lebanese, is making waves in international markets and, perhaps even more importantly, helping to counter misunderstandings between the Arab and Western worlds.

The ethos of the company is radical, progressive and international. “We believe in a cultural dialogue between the Arab and Western worlds, never more needed since the events of September 11,” said managing director Andre Gaspard, who, with his partner Mai Ghoussoub, founded the company as a bookshop in 1979 and now runs the company from offices in a cosmopolitan area of West London. Today, the company has an annual turnover of $3 million and publishes 27 English and 39 Arabic titles a year.

“We don’t think in terms of Arab or Western blocs and we don’t see all Arabs as fanatics and all Americans as imperialists – that’s crude and simplistic. We try to provide an outlet for a variety of individual voices.”

Gaspard cites the example of ADAMA, an autobiographical novel by Saudi writer Turki al-Hamad, which is about a young man growing up in Riyadh in the 1960s, and THE CRUSADES THROUGH ARAB EYES, by Amin Maalouf, which went a long way towards setting the crusades, one of the most distorted episodes in history, in a true light. “This is the sort of book we like to publish,” he said. The book still sells over 5,000 copies annually and is a standard text in schools and colleges.

A major coup was the publication in November 2001 of the first study of 9/11 called, TWO HOURS THAT SHOOK THE WORLD, by Fred Halliday, a Middle East specialist at the London School of Economics. The company began with the bookshop. Gaspard, who studied law at the University of St Joseph, and his friend Ghoussoub who studied math at the American University of Beirut, left the civil war in Lebanon in 1976 and moved to Paris. They found temporary jobs – Gaspard in a bank and Ghoussoub as a journalist with an Arab language weekly newspaper. They were both great book lovers and avid readers. One weekend Ghoussoub, on a visit to London, noticed that the city had no Arab language bookshops although there were three in Paris.

“She came back to Paris and suggested we open a bookshop in London and, being young and crazy, I agreed straight away. After we had opened, I met a prominent Arab bookseller who told me he had been thinking of opening a bookshop in London at the same time. He had a feasibility study done which predicted he would lose £80,000 a year and he decided to drop the idea. Thank heavens I never carried out a feasibility study!”

Before opening in 1979, Gaspard and Ghoussoub drew up a catalogue of 1,600 titles. “We printed 1,000 catalogues and ran out of them within a few months. We didn’t plan it but it proved to be the best way to launch a company specializing in mail order and library supply.” They also built up an address list of universities and colleges with Arabic departments in Europe and America. This mailing list, which began with 80 names and now has over 10,000, is the basis of the core business – mail order and worldwide library supply. This now accounts for some 70% of the shop’s annual sales of about $1 million. Mail order is increasingly overtaking “off the street” sales, as fewer Arabs visit London and more bookshops sell books about the Middle East.

He runs a tight ship. The bookshop employs seven people and is managed by Ghoussoub and Gaspard’s wife Salwa. At any given time the shop stocks some 40,000 titles evenly divided between Arabic and English books and specializes in titles with a long shelf life which often become standard academic texts.

“For a bookshop turnover in time is the key to profitability. If your allocated capital for buying books is, for example, $100,000, then the secret to financial success is how many times you can recoup and reinvest that $100,000 during the year. The average is three times, we achieve three and a half times, and the big chain bookshops aim for five times,” said Gaspard.

“Because of this huge push for profitability by the new supermarket bookshops there is a constant demand for new books, and huge numbers are being produced, the traditional bookshop atmosphere is disappearing, and it’s becoming difficult for the independent bookshop to survive.” But Saqi survives and prospers. The bookshop is “the mother” of the other two departments. The English language publishing department opened in London in 1984 and after “bumpy” progress over the years, picked up dramatically. It has increased sales by $200,000 for each of the last two years and now achieves annual sales of $1 million. All three departments now contribute more or less equally to the company’s present overall annual sales.

“I’m sorry to say that the tragedy of September 11 helped our English language publishing business. Sales increased threefold because many of our books were relevant to the crisis. Our Arabic publishing suffered at first but recovered, and the bookshop, which is a steady, ongoing business, was not affected.”

The English department is a lean and fit operation with an in-house staff of four people. Much of the nitty gritty pre-production work in London is handled by a team of some twelve freelance copy editors, proofreaders, indexers and designers. This system of outsourcing is especially effective in the production of a wide variety of specialized books. Pre-printing work accounts for about one-third, and printing and binding for about two-thirds of costs.

A publisher’s key partner is the representative who sells his books to bookshops, and the distributor who stocks his books in a warehouse, delivers orders to bookshops, collects sales revenues and, after deducting fees and expenses, sends the publisher his money.

“If my representative goes bust I don’t lose much, but if my distributor goes bust, we can suffer badly. The distributor is your money source, and if he runs into trouble, the publisher is the first to suffer – especially in England where in a case of bankruptcy other creditors take precedence over publishers,” explained Gaspard. “Over the last 16 years, four of our distributors have gone into receivership. The last time we lost six month’s sales and suffered a severe disruption of business. With nine books going through the printers we had to rent a temporary warehouse for two months until we found a new distributor and it took us two years to recover from the crisis. But each time we were able to recover because we do not borrow money from banks – that is our golden rule. Publishing and distributing books is unpredictable and risky.” When the company opened an office in Hamra Beirut in 1992, it was initially managed from London and everybody told Gaspard it would fail within a year. “We started slowly and cautiously but we picked up better than most of our competitors after the first Gulf war and our growth has been the fastest ever achieved by a Middle Eastern publisher.”

The office now employs a fulltime staff of 10 and a team of eight freelancers, has its own editorial board, and is becoming increasingly independent of London. It publishes over 50 new titles a year as well as reprints, achieves annual sales of about $1 million, and is the leading independent publisher in the region. It may also generate the company’s strongest growth in the future.

“Our list consists of some 300 writers from Morocco to Iran and everywhere in between. We try to find writers from a broader social spectrum, including women exploring new cultural and social issues, and as always we are keen on ‘new voices.’ We always treat writers fairly and this makes a huge difference in the Middle East. They recommend you to other writers and you are on a roll.”

In London, the company acts as a publisher but in Beirut it not only publishes books, it also does its own representation, distribution and wholesaling. Operations cannot be streamlined by giving exclusivity to one distributor as in Europe and America, and although the company has 40 distributors in the Arab world, some of them are unreliable and it does some distribution itself. The company stores its books in its own warehouse, employs two fulltime representatives constantly visiting bookshops throughout the region, and attends all the main book fairs. It has built its own distribution network and delivers directly to bookshops in all the major Arab cities. So where do Saqi Books go from here?

“We’ll do more of the same. We’ve always worked within our means and invested only from profits and never from borrowing. That makes it difficult to dream up master plans or long term goals,” Gaspard said. “We could open bookshop branches but we’re not going to jump into things. We don’t take easily to the idea of expanding with somebody else’s money and on their terms. We started small, we’ve grown gradually, and we like it that way.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Finance

Falling flat

by Faysal Badran January 1, 2004
written by Faysal Badran

Attempting to put together a commentary on the state of the Arab capital markets has become increasingly difficult for fear of being too biased, or worse, too skeptical. But as the parades of often-eloquent speakers continue to elaborate on the development of stock and credit markets in the Arab world, it is safe to say that yes, there is the proverbial “money to be made” in some Arab markets. But the question remains, are they heading in the right direction as far as growing the investor base and attracting fresh capital? The debate rages on, but recent events suggest that the notion of liquid and integrated markets is almost as far off as good governance and openness. Some recent bubbles came through newly privatized sectors, or even a real estate development here and there. But in essence, and despite some heart stopping cycles, the markets remained illiquid, and public participation weak. The main worries as they relate to the dynamics of the Arab market include, slow dealings, a somewhat opaque information and data system and the fragile economic and social structures – which the markets ought to reflect over time. These are linked to economic size and macro issues, as well as regulatory inexperience and lack of transparency and standard corporate governance. We could be cheeky and pull out a report from the UNDP on human development in the Arab countries – or a more recent obvious yet chilling diatribe on the poor state of governance in the area – to build the case that Arab capital markets are destined to remain disparate, shallow, speculative arenas, unlikely to take a path of growth and global relevance. It is unthinkable that the capital markets can develop meaningfully before there is a trajectory of openness, sensible economic planning, transparency and people empowerment. It is not a political angle it is the only angle. If we are to have capital markets that act as a faucet of growth and development of the Arab generations to come, it would be useful to link it, inextricably to political reform and a process of de-corrupting the political systems – a tall order for sure. Can we have open and deep markets for paper assets if trust in the economic, social and political future is not partly secured? Can we attract capital and develop the right environment for savings to be directed at the markets if, for the most part, we have no plan for tackling unemployment besides rhetoric and flamboyant use of “emergency” and “security” as a means of stratifying the status quo? There is ample room for Arab capital markets to exist and prosper. But without the corollaries of human development, economic depth and a prosperous and trusting population, all efforts to perpetuate the dream of capital markets are as doomed as a Road Map, which does not take into account the map itself.

Nothing would be better than for Arab markets to truly enter the realm of “emerging markets” and get more visibility and respect. But realistically, without seismic changes in political governance, and policies that promote prosperity over policing, it’s a non-starter. It is a good sign that the professionals in the Arab area do hold conferences – the exchange of ideas is refreshing and does help the local hotel industry when the show comes to Beirut. However, better usage of resources would be for those sharp pros to exert pressure for change.

In this era of Texan “crusades,” the Arab capital markets will most likely be restrained on one hand by weak economies suffering structural problems and political neglect, and on the other by the stark reality of decaying political and social systems. Totalitarian regimes and equity and business cultures rarely coexist. They are stuck between local economic despair and shrinking relevance of their impact and role in the more global world. There is sincere denial from many places in the Arab world about many things, but what is striking is how many players in the region still expect to have a financial center in the region. At the latest count, two Gulf cities are sort of competing for the role of financial center. Chances are, most of the financial centers in the world have already been established. This is independent of the fact that entire daily turnover of stocks and bonds in the region is probably less than that of Intel, L’Oreal, or Nokia in a few hours.

The recent launch of CNBC Arabic seems astounding. Here is a region with little free press, harsh living conditions, autocratic “family business” type regimes, often with spectacularly high unemployment levels, and rampant corruption, and now it has its own financial news channel? Not surprising though, given that CNBC in its short life has become a sort of ATM of hyper-capitalist propaganda. It is short sighted to think that because CNBC Arabic has been launched, something good must be happening in Arab capital markets. It seems optimistic to think that 24/7 Arab financial news is needed or even justified. The clear focus for Arab capital markets in the coming year will be events outside the realm of economics and finance. In a period where the existence of some if not all current systems is on the table, and where human suffering is excruciating, where illiteracy is still an issue, and justice and representation are not the currency of choice, the Arab capital markets will remain in a rut. Developing an equity culture so crucial for markets to take form takes generations and, most importantly, requires prosperous and vibrant youthful enterprise. But to draw skill and money to the regional markets will require that the inevitable reassessment result in the triumph of the economic/human development priority. Not a sure bet, but hope springs eternal.

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Gold rush

by Sarah Smiles January 1, 2004
written by Sarah Smiles

The violence still plaguing Baghdad has done little to deter a brave band of entrepreneurs – many of whom are Lebanese – to march into the capital and snap up lucrative post-war contracts with the coalition forces. Free trade and privatization, forbidden under Saddam Hussein, has plenty of opportunists biting.

“Before the war there was no chance for foreigners to invest. It was a scary regime. Who would have dared come here and try?” said Lebanese businessman George Chahine, who has a contract to maintain three US military bases with Kellogg Brown & Root (KBR), a subsidiary of Halliburton.

With $18.6 billion pledged by the American government for post-war reconstruction next year, alongside over $13 billion in loans and donations from donor countries secured recently in Madrid, the contracts – worth anywhere between $100,000 to $30 million – have overwhelming appeal. “As long as I’m happy with the contract, I don’t mind doing business in Angola or Afghanistan,” said Michel, who comes from Beirut and has a contract with KBR to supply mobile homes to the American camp at Baghdad International Airport.

Yet he was not so blasé about the dangers involved. American military convoys are often targeted by explosive devices on the road to the airport, which also comes under regular mortar attack. “The biggest risk is getting to the camp and back on the road. Also being at the airport, if the camp is shelled who knows what’s going to happen?” he said.

Despite these risks, Michel considers the contract “worth it,” although he, like most of the other contractors in Iraq has no insurance. “What insurance?” he said incredulously.

“You can get insurance but I don’t think it’s worth much because this is war. Who’s going to cover FORCE MAJEURE?”

While one upside to this is no taxes, the lack of insurance for consignments in a war zone can be costly. Chahine is constantly losing freight on the road from Kuwait to Baghdad, where his goods, accompanied by military vehicles, are inevitably targeted by looters. When a truck comes under fire, the driver detaches his load and keeps on driving.

“If I have a valuable consignment in transit, I’m always worried about it until it reaches its location because it’s my money after all,” he said.

While the security situation across Iraq is far from ideal, Yousif Abdul-Rahman, the senior advisor to the Iraqi trade minister is naturally bullish, predicting that business opportunities will abound when the situation stabilizes.

“When security prevails we expect there will be big opportunities in business in Iraq, whether in construction or in supplying commodities. The sooner companies get here, the better,” he said.

This optimism is underpinned by a burgeoning form of economic liberalization that has taken hold under the neo-liberal policies of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA).

“A new investment law will be issued to encourage foreigners to come and invest in Iraq,” said Abdul-Rahman of the new law currently being drafted and soon to be issued by the Iraqi Ruling Council.

Previously, state-owned businesses, from factories to the infamous Al-Rashid hotel in Baghdad – are also under review for privatization. “Each ministry is negotiating which projects need to be privatized and which need to be controlled by the government,” said Abdul-Rahman, touting the example of previously state-owned shopping malls. “We plan that in the future, these shopping centers will be rented to the private sector, renovated and redeveloped [to resemble] major chains, such as Safeways. The private sector can deal better than the government in certain areas.”

Nonetheless Abdul-Rahman acknowledged that privatization must happen slowly to ease the social fallout likely to occur if more Iraqi workers lose their jobs. This is nowhere more sensitive than in the manufacturing sector, where some 200 state-owned companies formed the largest employers outside central government – with more than 500,000 workers on their payrolls. “The unemployment rate exceeds 60%. If we speed up privatization this will have a negative impact,” he said.

With privatization is a key economic goal for the new Iraqi government, and the main focus of the trade ministry is free trade, said Abdul-Rahman. This is a sharp shift for a ministry whose former function was to control the rationing system of the UN oil-for-food-program.

“The outlook for the government is free trade, so there will be a very big support for the private sector to participate in the economy of Iraq,” said Abdul-Rahman, highlighting the ease of registration for foreign companies.

Free trade is nowhere more evident than in Iraq today. When the war ended, the CPA froze customs duties on goods entering Iraq, heralding an unprecedented opportunity for trade with neighboring countries. The streets of once-sanctions ravaged Baghdad are flooded with cheap electrical products from Turkey and food from Iran, distributed through Kurdistan. A fleet of used-cars has also made its way into Iraq through the Jordanian port of Aqaba.

This will change on January 1, 2004, when a reconstruction levy of 5% will be imposed on the total taxable customs value of all goods imported into Iraq, besides medicines, food, clothing and humanitarian goods.

While Jordanians have profited from trade with Iraq, Chahine sees the Kurds as the “biggest winners” of the post-war free market.

“The private sector is being controlled mainly by the Kurds, due to the fact that Northern Iraq wasn’t under any embargo and the Kurds, because of their territorial location on the Turkish and Iranian border, have experience with trading transactions and have already established their contracts with manufacturers abroad,” he said. “They were the first to flood the market with satellite dishes, a day after the liberation.” While most trade is coming through the ports of Aqaba, Tartoos and Um Qasr, some businessmen are choosing to ship their consignments through Beirut to avoid delays. “We have to depend on Beirut, because Aqaba is congested and there is a delay in delivering the consignments in Kuwait,” said Chahine who has a consignment soon to be delivered through Beirut.

While years of sanctions would suggest that Iraqis have poor purchasing power to take advantage of new products, Chahine believes otherwise. “Iraqis are buying. They were thirsty for everything,” he said of the country with a population of over 24 million.

Khalid Al-Helou, an Iraqi businessman agreed: “Under sanctions there was nothing to spend your money on. We couldn’t travel or buy new things, so we just saved it.”

Landlords are also cashing in. Since the end of the war, property prices have risen by 300%. “They are asking $2,000 per square meter for prime locations along the Tigris River,” said Chahine, obviously unimpressed at having to pay $20,000 to rent a home. “The price of land is grossly exaggerated. Why? The Iraqis believe that the price they set now is the one they will realize in the future.”

While trade and real estate present long-term opportunities in Iraq, the best money to be made right now is through American contracts, said Chahine. He said Lebanese businessmen have a clear advantage in doing business in Iraq. “The advantage the Lebanese have is that they are multi-lingual. It makes it easier for them to communicate with the locals and the internationals, and coordinate with the local market and abroad,” he said.

“I also feel at home here,” said Michel, of his experience of doing business in a war zone.

Yet despite the many business opportunities, the dangers of doing business in Iraq cannot be underestimated. Chahine drives a beat-up, dirty Toyota Corolla through the streets of Baghdad to avoid standing out, employs an armed gunman to guard his house – and admits he feels anything but secure. “But no risk, no money,” he smiled, noting the importance of gaining a foothold in Iraq now.

“To be here at this time, to become familiar with the market is very important,” he said. “This is just the beginning.”

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Finance

High hopes

by Executive Staff January 1, 2004
written by Executive Staff

The adversity of the past three-year bear market in US equities has been steadily forgotten over the course of 2003, as we enjoy the present blessings of a stronger economy and a nine-month-long rally. Investors and speculators are now stressed with the question of how much longer the good times will last. The major worry is whether it is too late to join the party. The most important question on everyone’s mind is: Am I going to miss out if I do nothing, or am I going to buy at the top if I chase this market at this point? Folks have gotten quite excited. What began with such nervousness and anxiety in early March has now flourished into a full-fledged, wide-open speculation. There’s a lot of optimism that good things are about to happen next year in the economy and the stock market. We’ve seen lots of cheerleading and speculation when not much has occurred yet. This rally was predictable by many, even the bears, but no one, not even the bulls, predicted that this rally will go this far and this fast. As always, we can find compelling arguments for both the bullish and bearish perspectives. One thing that makes the market so difficult is that very logical points of view can always be made for both sides. We can easily find ourselves swayed back and forth as we listen to the arguments. The bulls will tell you that beneficial monetary and fiscal policies, a continued decrease in risk aversion, and attractive relative valuations are evidence that positives outweigh negatives at the moment. The weakness in the dollar has no historic correlation with stock market returns. In addition, unemployment, which has stayed at a pretty high level throughout this recovery, is a classic lagging economic indicator. It is common for the unemployment rate to rise after the end of a recession. This period seems to be no exception. In addition, in the short term, seasonal factors favor stocks, as November and December are typically the strongest period of the year. The bulls conclude that we have now turned the bear page and we are currently enjoying a new bull market that could last for several years to come. Bears, on the other hand, say that there are no signs of a real improvement in the economy. The Fed has greatly increased liquidity, and this has resulted in asset inflation. This has meant rising stock prices and rising home prices. Stocks and homes are now priced at treacherously high levels. Valuations, especially in the Nasdaq, are still way high. The national debt is now around $35 trillion, as compared to a $10 trillion economy (GDP for the US).

Consumers have leveraged up appreciating home values to live beyond their means. But they are so spent up that auto sales are deteriorating, despite zero-percent financing and tax rebates. There has been some good news from certain tech companies. But that’s because they are the companies that sell to other companies that may be building up inventory. After this bear market is finally over, almost no one will remember the hyper bullish psychology that existed in the summer of 2000, the spring of 2001, the spring of 2002 or the fall of 2003. All these rallies will be labeled corrections in a secular bear market.

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Finance

Q&A: Riad Salameh

by Thomas Schellen January 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Elected as banker of the year by EUROMONEY magazine, Riad Salame, govenor of the central bank, has been a guarantor for the authenticity of Lebanon’s monetary policy of safeguarding currency stability and relying on market forces. EXECUTIVE asked Mr. Salame about the state of the banking and financial sectors at the end of the year, the impact of the Al Madina scandal, and his outlook for 2004.

E: How do you evaluate the period in terms of fulfilling the commitment and promises of Paris II, one year post the event?

RS: Paris II recreated confidence in the financial markets. Interest rates saw an important decline. In 2003, interest rates are 50% to 60 % lower than in the previous year. The confidence and positive dynamic allowed Lebanon to issue debt instruments in the local currency with three-year duration. That was the first time it was possible to do this and this was done through the CDs [Certificates of Deposit]. The other achievements in the financial sector were the different initiatives taken by the central bank to reorganize its portfolio. These various initiatives allowed savings in 2003 of more than $800 million and will create more than $1.2 billion [of savings] in the year 2004. Despite the fact that the debt has increased in 2003 to reach around $33 billion by yearend, the servicing of the debt for 2004 is going to be less by around 20% compared to what was achieved in 2003, and less than it was estimated to be before the success of Paris II, by almost 40%. On the government side, more work has to be done. The budget in 2003, according to the ministry of finance, has a deficit equal to 37% of the total budget, while predictions were for around 30%. The 2004 budget is showing a deficit of around 30%, which is good compared to what was achieved in 2003, but not in line with the decline of the deficit that was promised to bring down the dynamic of the debt. On the other side, promises of privatization and securitization were not realized this year.

E: Is the delay in privatization by at least another couple of months a threat to Paris II and what has been achieved so far?

RS: The funds that were released were not conditional. Therefore, the results of Paris II have already been finalized. The importance of reforms comes from the fact that we have to keep this confidence in our markets so that the interest rates could go lower for the economy.

E: In view of some analysts, the central bank has been focusing on monetary stability, while fiscal authorities had priorities on lower interest rates that were of a different emphasis. Do you see a divergence between the two?

RS: Monetary stability is also the objective of the government and has been the objective of all governments since independence. The divergence comes from the views on which policies would result in stability. The central bank relies essentially on market sentiment in order to determine the rates of interest in the country. There are some views that you could administer interest rates and keep monetary stability. This is not our view. Therefore, and as the priority is still for monetary stability, the central bank remains with the same policies.

E: The desire to drive interest rates further down to ease further borrowing is not what you would unconditionally agree to?

RS: We look at the interest rates to be stable. We intervene in case there are upside pressures, because we do have the means to do it through all the funds we raised through the CDs. We think that the next move would be to have lower rates but this has to be market driven, so that the confidence remains in the financial sector. And for that, we need good news from reforms initiated by the government.

E: If we turn now to the banking sector: was 2003 a good year in Lebanese banking?

RS: Lebanese banks in 2003 have realized returns that are equal to 2002 despite their contribution to lend the government at zero percent, and despite the fact that interest rates have declined on the lending side, especially for borrowers with a good rating. The balance sheets of banks have increased this year, especially on the deposit side, with growth of over 13%. There was a good progression for non-resident deposits and fiduciary deposits, which means that the banking sector in Lebanon is conveying more confidence for the region and non-Lebanese. The capitalization of the banks is now over $3 billion, capital adequacy is over the required 12%, and the situation in the sector, in terms of improving management and technology, is also good. So I think that the banking sector in Lebanon is sound and is progressing in a healthy manner.

E: What would you tell someone who claims that banks are making too many profits?

RS: The return on assets, as mentioned by the IMF, is on average 1% internationally. The return on assets in Lebanon during the past two or three years was below this 1%. Therefore, the banks’ return on assets should improve. The reason why you have big nominal profit figures comes from the quick expansion in their balance sheets. When the total balance sheet of Lebanese banks was $10 billion, their profits were $100 million. Today, as balance sheets total $50 billion, their returns theoretically should be $500 million. But in fact, due to provisioning and less income from the government, their returns are less than that. The higher profit figures for the banking sector are derived from the expansion of their balance sheets and not by increases in the spreads they are charging in the cost of money.

E: Are you satisfied with the interest rate environment as it stands today?

RS: We would like to see the debit accounts – excluding consumer loans – with a ceiling of 10%. We are working for that with the banks in Lebanon and the Association of Banks in Lebanon [ABL]. A commission is to be formed in the coming two weeks to study professionally how to get this achieved across all accounts, whatever their size.

Interest rates on deposits are not a concern to the central bank. We think that the banks know how to manage their treasury and if they do sacrifice on their profits to pay their clients more or gain new market shares, the central bank doesn’t see this as harming the economic growth. Our focus is on debit interest.

E: If we look forward into 2004, what will banks have to achieve next year in regard to getting ready for Basle II requirements and working for the needs of the national economy?

RS: The central bank has issued a circular with the purpose of cleaning the balance sheets of the banks from redundant debts and provisions that were constituted for these debts. This includes all accounts up to June 30, 2003. Our priority to prepare the sector to be in a very good situation for Basle II – that we expect for around 2008 – is the success of this operation because the settlement of these loans will help the banks take them out of their provisions. On the part that is not settled, banks will have to reconstitute liquidity during five years, as to equal the amounts that there were no settlements on. This will give the economy a boost because many players will come back and will be able to refinance from banks as they have settled their loans and at the same time will clarify the banks’ balance sheets and will defuse the high percentage of provisions compared to the loan portfolio, which is effectively cosmetic because it is mainly constituted by reserved interest rates. This is the priority for the year 2004 and I think all banks are aware of the importance of this reorganization.

E: Is the Al Madina case closed from the perspective of the central bank?

RS: For us, the matter is closed, banking wise, because we have secured enough funds to pay the true depositors, including interest rates. We have changed the management of the bank, we have nominated a manager by the high banking commission and, therefore, ousted the previous management that brought the bank into the situation. On the legal side, all the necessary has been done. Whatever happens between the players and their disputes is not the concern of the central bank.

E: From your perspective, has the whole Al Madina affair been resolved without damage to the image of Lebanon or its banking sector?

RS: The banking sector did not suffer, on the contrary. This year we have increases in deposits by 15% and a record positive balance of payments – around $3.4 billion until the end of October. The banking system is safe. No other bank was linked to this bank and there is no echo on other banks. We do think that the way the situation was handled was quick and the results were good. Nobody lost money, neither the government nor the central bank nor the depositors.

E: Lebanon’s financial sector has been lagging behind the banking sector in the attention it has been getting. Are there any realistic prospects for establishing an oversight institution of the type of a Securities and Exchange Commission, or legislation that would enable the sector to be stronger next year?

RS: It is necessary to have such an organization. There are projected laws that were presented by the central bank to the government. We don’t know of any immediate follow-up but this is an important initiative that will help raise more equity for the private sector and increase their performance.

E: Next year is an election year in Lebanon, per chance in parallel to the US. In that country, an election year usually means a 1% better than economic growth. Would you foresee anything similar for Lebanon?

RS: Our estimates for next year are still in line with what was achieved in the economy for 2003, with some improvement. Due to the seasonality and volatility of the economy, the central bank has been reserved on putting out estimates. After the first quarter of 2004, we will follow with a better estimate.

E: Would the run up to the election here impact the economy, either positively or negatively?

RS: We hope that the debates will be in line with the interest of the country and its economy. And anyway, if things get harder, we have taken all the necessary measures so that they do not affect the stability of the economy or the financial sector. Already, the results have shown that despite the political internal tensions of the last two or three months, these were not felt by the financial markets. And this is a big improvement in the financial history of the country, where these financial markets were very sensitive to political developments.

E: Is being central bank governor a good preparation for being president of Lebanon?

RS: The time for our interview is up.

January 1, 2004 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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