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Editorial

Rising above the gloom

by Yasser Akkaoui December 1, 2013
written by Yasser Akkaoui

For Middle East watchers, 2013 was a schizophrenic year politically. As the months went by, all the supposed truths about the region after the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings were contradicted, leaving us deeply confused.

Back in January, there was a democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt, Israel was pushing for an attack on Iran and commentators were still betting on the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Eleven months later and the military have returned to power in Egypt, Salafists and fundamentalists are growing across the region, Assad looks undefeatable and Iran’s new president is exchanging hugs with Western leaders. In the midst of all this, Lebanon has ground to a depressingly familiar halt. What can we make of it all?

Chaos, clearly, but if there is a lesson to be drawn from the year it is that those, like myself, who believe in liberalism and focusing on economic development have been increasingly sidelined.

The ideals of the Arab uprisings have given way to the return of backroom deals and the principle that might makes right. Those with the guns rule and human rights mean little — we have learned the hard way that the people still don’t have much of a say.

So as we look forward to 2014, perhaps the most depressing lesson for the people of the Arab world is to ignore their politicians. Until geostrategic deals are made and global alliances settle, those in Washington, Moscow, Beijing and elsewhere care little about economic growth. In the face of such insecurity, the only way forward is on your own.

The Lebanese realized this long ago and have given up hope in their inept, corrupt political class. Instead they have gone it alone and faced with seemingly insurmountable challenges time and again they have clutched success out of the jaws of defeat.

This is evident in the few areas of resilience in the economy — banks continue to grow, exports remain stable and exciting new entrepreneurs are emerging. Those that predicted doomsday for Lebanon in 2013 have been proved wrong, and there is little reason to expect a full collapse next year.

Obviously, we wish the circumstances were better — that there was political stability that could lead to another boom. But it was ever thus in this country, and increasingly this region. Stability will remain elusive and the search for opportunities will be more challenging, but we will persevere and succeed. Here’s to 2014.

December 1, 2013 0 comments
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The Buzz

Business briefing: 29 Nov 2013

by Executive Staff November 29, 2013
written by Executive Staff

Economics and Policy

Dubai’s prolific win to host Expo 2020 will fast-track infrastructure developments such as rail projects and ramp up logistics facilities that are worth billions of dollars.

More from Gulf Business

 

Dubai’s measure hits a five-year closing high after the emirate was chosen to host World Expo 2020, although the benchmark gives back more than half of its intraday gains.

More from Reuters

 

A decrease in imports reduced Lebanon’s trade deficit in the first 10 months of 2013 by about $2.8 billion compared to the same period of 2012.

More from The Daily Star

 

Lebanon could face further power cuts if the outstanding dues to Electricite du Liban are not paid soon, caretaker Energy and Water Minister Gebran Bassil has warned.

More from The Daily Star

 

Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan have signed a package of landmark contracts that will see the semi-autonomous region's oil and gas shipped to international markets via pipelines through Turkey.

More from Reuters

November 29, 2013 0 comments
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The Buzz

Business briefing: 27 Nov 2013

by Executive Staff November 27, 2013
written by Executive Staff

Economics and Policy

Most foreign oil firms are still keen to operate in Lebanon despite the delay in launching the offshore gas auction.

More from The Daily Star

FIFA president Sepp Blatter on Tuesday defended under-fire 2022 World Cup hosts Qatar over what he called “unfair” European media attacks.

More from Reuters

 

The UAE government is to spend $1.36bn building new homes for 10,000 Emiratis.

More from Arabian Business

 

Companies and Business

Saudi state oil company Saudi Aramco said on Tuesday it had shut some of its computers for an upgrade and denied it had suffered a cyber attack similar to one it experienced last year.

More from Reuters

 

Qatari telecommunications firm Ooredoo has launched a $1.25 billion, five-year sukuk, the firm's first Islamic bond.

More from Reuters

 

Dubai-based property firm Damac Real Estate has extended roadshows on a London IPO by four days because the verdict on Dubai's bid to host World Expo 2020.

More from Reuters

 

General Electric Co said on Tuesday it signed a nearly $700 million deal with Saudi Electricity Co to supply natural gas turbine generators.

More from Reuters

 

November 27, 2013 0 comments
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Comment

Erbil booms despite blasts

by Riad Al-Khouri November 26, 2013
written by Riad Al-Khouri

Iraqi Kurdistan was tense end-September with the announcement of somewhat contentious election results, and the staging of a rare terrorist attack. Inevitably, the overall effect was to dampen business confidence. However, are these mere pinpricks, or more ominous signs?

Erbil doesn’t yet have that most accurate of all measures of business confidence, a sophisticated, broad-based, and large stock market. In most other places, it’s simple to gauge the state of the economy, just by looking at the bourse. Yet this will also be the case in Kurdistan next year with the announcement in October that NASDAQ is helping to set up a trading system for the Erbil Stock Exchange to start operating in June. Along with existing firms, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) plans to trade shares on the bourse of new joint ventures with private partners in agriculture, tourism and industry. Estimates in Kurdish investor circles are that trading will begin with a daily volume of $4 to 5 million, and that around 25 companies will list shares on the Erbil exchange by the end of 2014. Of course that is tiny compared to other exchanges, but the prospects are good, thanks to massive amounts of oil on which Kurdish prosperity is based.

The Kurds estimate their crude reserves at 45 billion barrels, and are building an oil pipeline as a step toward economic self-sufficiency. Based on such wealth, coupled with stability, consumer confidence is much higher in Kurdistan than in Baghdad or the northern non-Kurdish governorates, according to TNS MENA, a market research organization that recently unveiled a study of the country.

Of the two parts of Kurdistan’s winning combination — oil and a stable political environment — the former is underpinned by continuing growth of production. The latest example came in October when a multinational consortium received approval from the KRG for the first phase in the development of the Atrush block, located 85 kilometers northwest of Erbil; this is expected to initially produce approximately 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) with the first output due by early 2015. Discovered in 2011, the block is operated by TAQA Atrush, a subsidiary of the Abu Dhabi National Energy Company, which holds a working interest in the block along with the US company Marathon Oil, and others.

Approval by the KRG gives TAQA and its partners 25 years to recover resources. The group plans to invest more than $300 million during the first phase of the work, including drilling three production wells and constructing a central processing facility, while preparing to drill a fourth well. Subject to appraisal and KRG approval, Phase 2 development is expected to include another 30,000 bpd of production, while TAQA and its partners will also evaluate the feasibility of producing associated natural gas.

As for stability, the September explosions in Erbil — apparently the work of Islamist extremists — were the exception that proved the rule: since 1991, when the Kurds achieved autonomy, the region has been peaceful compared to the rest of Iraq. As such, the recent terrorist attack is seen as an isolated incident, not the beginning of major instability.

Meanwhile, the election for the regional parliament, which took place a week before the explosions, called attention to public frustration over alleged corruption by politicians in a healthy democratic way. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) secured 38 seats in September’s vote for the 111-seat regional parliament, having previously held 30. The main opposition party Gorran (Kurdish for “change”) won 24 seats (compared to 25 last time) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which ran in coalition with the KDP in the last election but on its own this time, won only 18 seats, sharply down from last time’s 29. The results do not upend the domination of the KDP and its leader, KRG President Barzani, who is seen as having brought prosperity to the region. He has also been skillful in managing disputes with the government in Baghdad over territory, natural resources, and power sharing. Keeping this friction under control, and eventually resolving differences with Iraq’s central government, remain challenges for the KRG, but ones that can be addressed. In the meantime prosperity will continue.
 

Riad al Khouri is senior consultant at the Institute for Democracy and Election Studies (IDES) at the University of Jordan, Amman

November 26, 2013 0 comments
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Business

Celebrity endorsement – a brand’s boon or bane?

by Line Tabet, Line Tabet & Line Tabet November 26, 2013
written by Line Tabet, Line Tabet & Line Tabet

Those of us living in Lebanon can’t but notice the recent profusion of ads featuring celebrities promoting different causes: actors and athletes encouraging people to drive carefully, well-known female figures supporting breast cancer awareness month and singers vowing to protect the environment. More recently, local corporate brands seem to have jumped on the bandwagon, with a partnership between a financial institution and a leading TV talk show host.

Celebrity endorsement has become a common communication practice: Every week we hear about a new deal, sometimes rumored to be in the seven figures, and the consumer landscape is now filled with celebrities plastered on billboards, magazines, TV ads and on our daily news feed on social media. The point is: celebrity sells.

Throughout the years, evidence has shown that celebrities sponsoring products is beneficial, especially in cluttered markets, to generate buzz and get people talking. However, as many brands have learned, connecting their image to that of a person can sometimes go horribly wrong.

Win-win

Celebrity endorsement is first and foremost a marketing tool used by companies to enhance their brand equity and increase their name recognition. Let’s take the example of Nike, an iconic brand famous for its consistent use of celebrities to endorse its wide range of products.

When Nike sponsored Michael Jordan in 1984 and Tiger Woods in 1996, the brand was still known primarily for sponsoring tennis and track athletes. By partnering with the world’s top basketball player and golfer, Nike succeeded in expanding into new markets. It created the subsidiary company “Air Jordan” in the first case and in the second, changed the perception of golf from that of an elitist game to one appreciated by and accessible to all.

As mentioned earlier, celebrity endorsement sells. In fact, from a pure marketing and sales perspective, associating a brand with a celebrity greatly influences consumers’ purchases. It is no secret that people look up to celebrities and do their best to imitate them, and one of the easiest ways to do so is by buying the products they seem to prefer. We all remember the buzz that surrounded the ad campaign for men’s underwear featuring David Beckham, which reportedly even caused traffic jams. More than just a pretty face, sales for H&M’s Bodywear line went up 28 percent after Beckham’s campaign this year, according to Selfridges, one of the UK’s leading retailers.

“Because I’m worth it” has become an instantly recognizable tagline, thanks to L’Oréal’s ads featuring a stream of celebrities endorsing each product. There may well be better products on the market, but who wouldn’t want to have the perfect complexion of Aishwarya Rai or the glossy hair of Eva Longoria? In fact, a celebrity testimony adds credibility to the product and ultimately increases sales and revenues.

Away from its mercantile dimension, when celebrities support causes through public service announcements, they succeed in drawing the public’s attention and raising awareness around important social issues. In the United States, the renowned “Got Milk” campaign, famous for its white moustache, featured athletes, musicians, actors and politicians, among others, all pitching in to shed light on the importance of living a healthy lifestyle. In Lebanon, a leading NGO focusing on road safety launched an awareness campaign by featuring local celebrities including dancers, actors and media figures.

Potential drawbacks

That said, and despite all these advantages, celebrity endorsement can certainly go wrong, bringing significant harm to the brand’s image.

Let’s talk about Credit Suisse, Rolex, Wilson, Nike, Mercedes Benz, Jura, Moet & Chandon, Lindt, Gillette and Nationale Suisse. While this might seem like a random listing of brands, they do have a common denominator: the endorsement of Roger Federer. From here comes a major drawback of celebrity affiliation: overexposure. As the popular saying goes, “less is more”. In fact, when a celebrity is involved with a large number of brands, his or her credibility might suffer, which then reflects on the brands themselves. Consumers feel that the endorser is motivated by financial remuneration rather than promoting a product he or she truly believes in, which will in turn dilute the message the brand wants to convey.

Another problem is one of human nature. Image changes, celebrities lose their fame, people make mistakes and celebrities can go off script. When they do, it takes a toll on the brand. A brand can be seriously damaged because of an image gone bad: Nike had to deal with the Lance Armstrong and Tiger Woods scandals, and recently that of Oscar Pistorius, the South African Paralympic champion charged with murdering his girlfriend.

Another risk a brand faces when using a celebrity is that the consumer might focus on the endorser rather than the product itself. This is especially true when the brand and its recognition are not yet mature or well-established in consumers’ minds. This creates an overshadowing effect whereby consumers remember the celebrity and not the brand. Case in point: Very few consumers in the US and elsewhere seem to recall the 2005 partnership between St John, the luxury brand apparel, and Angelina Jolie, which lasted three consecutive years.

Getting it right  

For many companies, celebrity endorsement seems to be the perfect communication initiative that can propel the product and the brand. However, given the risks and the price brands will have to pay in case of failure, companies should look into many parameters prior to investing in a multi-million dollar deal.

Is celebrity endorsement right for the brand? The first question to answer is whether celebrity endorsement is the right strategy to follow. Has the brand been established and rooted long and well enough in consumer minds that it would not risk being overshadowed by a celebrity? As an example, at a certain point, Rolex had endorsement deals with 24 golf players, seven tennis professionals, four equestrians, three yachtsmen, two race car drivers, a skier and a polo player. Never once has that eclipsed the recognition of this mature brand.

How to ensure the success of the partnership? If the answer to the first question is yes, then the company needs to set the right key performance indicators to measure the effectiveness of the partnership: What are the objectives the brand is trying to achieve by the association? What are the right measurement tools to assess the effectiveness of the endorsement in achieving its objectives?

How to select the right celebrity for the brand? At this point, selecting the right celebrity to become the spokesperson for the brand becomes critical.

Profile: Companies need to ensure that the celebrity is attractive enough to create a positive association with the product or service. Moreover, the image of the celebrity needs to be consistent and in line with that of the brand to successfully establish a strong personality and identity for both. Most of us fell for the obvious charm of George Clooney walking into a Nespresso shop to buy a machine and have his daily espresso. Yet beyond the seduction and wit of the ads, George Clooney also perfectly represented the image Nestle wanted to convey about this new product: dark, rich, refined and mature.

Relevance: When famous weight loss programs decided to team up with celebrities to endorse their products, they chose those who struggled with weight loss and who achieved their goals by resorting to the dieting plans offered by them. From here we see the importance of showing a clear relevance and association between the celebrity and the product and/or service.

Credibility: Selecting a global ambassador should be a smooth transaction, whereby the celebrity should not come across as selling the product but rather endorsing it for the various benefits and advantages it brings to his or her lifestyle. Indeed, many celebrities were the laughing stock of consumers when it was clear that their association with a brand was more of a business transaction. Drinking Coca Cola while endorsing Pepsi, using an Apple product when sponsoring Samsung, or even driving a Bentley when endorsing a Volkswagen are common missteps that negatively affect the brand and harm its credibility.

Opting for celebrity endorsement when the brand is just not ready or spending money on the wrong person can be detrimental to a brand. Not setting the right objectives and tools to measure success is another mistake when embarking on an expensive celebrity relationship. It is therefore essential that brands develop a well-thought out strategy before striking a deal, as the rumored seven figure numbers we hear about can become painfully real when brands have to pay the price for an endorsement gone wrong.

 

Line Tabet, Zeina Loutf and Ramsay Najjar work for communication firm S2C

November 26, 2013 0 comments
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The Buzz

Business briefing: 26 Nov 2013

by Executive Staff November 26, 2013
written by Executive Staff

Economics and Policy

The caretaker tourism minister has called on the Lebanese diaspora to deliver a Christmas gift to the country this year: Visit Lebanon over the holiday season to send a message that terrorism wouldn’t work.

More from The Daily Star
 

Lebanese banks have provided 96,000 housing loans thanks to the soft loan initiative by the Central Bank, Governor Riad Salameh has said.

More from The Daily Star

 

A Saudi court has sentenced one man to death and another 19 to jail for the deadly storming of the U.S. consulate in the Red Sea city of Jeddah in 2004, one of a series of al Qaeda attacks last decade.

More from Reuters

 
Companies and Business

The $500 million London initial public offer of shares by Dubai-based DAMAC Real Estate is 75 per cent covered, and the deal is set to price today, according to a lead.

More from Reuters

Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera Sport has seen its live coverage of the English Premier League limited as a result of illicit access to its satellite feeds in the UK.

More from Arabian Business

November 26, 2013 0 comments
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Business

Raising standards

by Thomas Schellen November 26, 2013
written by Thomas Schellen

The Syndicate of Safety and Security Professionals in Lebanon (SSSPL) and its member companies address two market needs. Fire prevention, detection and response systems are one central need; the other is for security systems such as intrusion alarms and access control and monitoring systems including Closed Circuit Television (CCTV).

According to Riccardo Hosri, the current SSSPL president, the syndicate’s main concern is “to become a label of quality” that will allow member companies to differentiate themselves as reliable providers of safety and security systems.

To achieve this, the organization has revamped its bylaws and is currently implementing a set of standards that member companies have to adhere to in their commercial, financial and administrative practices.

These standards oblige member companies adopt ethical practices, such as recycling, but they also include provisions against offering kickbacks or gifts in order to win contracts. The process of drafting and agreeing to the standards among all 28 member companies took two-and-a-half years as the firms are all in competition with one another, Hosri told Executive. “We are trying to work against human nature and put limitations on ourselves. But if we don’t do this, we don’t have credibility.”

When SSSPL was established in 1999, the organization had what appeared to be a defensive character. Globalization and the arrival of manufacturers from the emerging Far East in international markets meant that competition heated up, as opportunistic importers offered low-cost systems to the local market. Faced with the intrusion of what the founding members considered to be substandard quality, Hosri said they “came together to set some market standards and try to maintain a minimum quality in the sector.”

Educating the market

Efforts were poured into educating  the target market, which according to Hosri initially greatly lacked awareness of the value of security systems so that it took months to complete a sale. This has changed and the market has become driven by demand, but competition from what they perceive as unqualified or unproven vendors is still a big issue for the SSSPL members.

To ensure that the market can distinguish competent local vendors from unprofessional operators, the SSSPL devised a process of accession and certification. To obtain a to-be-coveted “professional installer certification”, or PIC, a company has to first be a full member of the syndicate. Before granting this status, SSSPL requires that a new applicant has been operating in Lebanon for one year. The applicant can then progress to full membership in a process taking a minimum of another two years as a guest and associate member.     

So many companies are interested in joining SSSPL that the organization’s ranks could increase by more than half. Hosri added that the syndicate is now preparing to admit new corporate members after the revision of its bylaws won ministerial approval in August. According to the revised bylaws membership will be opened to individuals, such as consultants and installers, and to companies with other security specializations, such as guard services.

That complex accession rules of organizations can turn into entry barriers is evidenced by the World Trade Organization’s recent history of what is euphemistically still called the Doha Round. However, there is an argument for a restrictive and perhaps even protectionist procedure given that the Lebanese state and its administrative organs have not installed any regulations and governance processes to supervise the quality of private safety and security. Since the security services and systems have touch points with sovereign responsibilities, the real aspiration of the SSSPL is to operate under a framework where a qualified public sector authority properly regulates, licenses and supervises the companies in this sensitive realm.

November 26, 2013 0 comments
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Special Report

Meeting in the middle

by Executive Editors November 25, 2013
written by Executive Editors

There is a lot of money sitting around in Lebanon and in the region that could be invested in startups. But in a landscape that barely existed just six years ago, investors are risk-averse, and the ones that do invest frequently ask for exorbitant amounts of equity. Meanwhile, entrepreneurs often expect investors to relinquish their money for too little of a product. Both sides need to make some concessions for the money to start flowing.

Managing expectations

While plenty of startups and entrepreneurs have sprouted in the past five years, one of the biggest reasons that relatively few are receiving funding is that investors do not always see a worthy caliber. “Not all entrepreneurs or startups deserve to be funded,” says Tarek Sadi, managing director of Endeavor, an NGO that supports entrepreneurs. “I think there was a huge buzz around entrepreneurship which was great because it brought it out there. But a lot of people jumped on the bandwagon and wanted to start businesses,” he says.

Starting a business is no casual undertaking, and just because there is a lot of money out there entrepreneurs should not expect funding to fall into their laps. “There’s lots of complaints that there is not enough funding, but I really think that there is,” says Habib Haddad, CEO of the business startup platform Wamda. “I’ve been an entrepreneur myself, and I recently became an investor [see box for Haddad’s story]. I know that a lot of entrepreneurs expect that if they have a good idea they expect funding. But it takes a lot of hard work, a lot of sweat to convince investors,” he says. “There is enough funding, but [only] for the good [startups],” adds Walid Hanna, managing partner at venture capital firm Middle East Venture Partners. “You’ll see a lot of startups complaining that there aren’t enough venture capitalists [VCs], there aren’t enough angels. These are the second tier startups that nobody really wants.”

But while it’s fair to say many startups are still somewhat immature, investors have a sometimes overblown aversion to risk. Investors will write off early-stage startups in full, despite evidence through several success stories that these can be good investments if done smartly. Many investors even rule out technology startups because of the huge risk associated with them, despite evidence of the scalability of companies from this industry. Besides creating a funding gap that diminishes the deal flow, investors are shooting themselves in the foot by not taking these startups as opportunities. According to Haddad, investors need to dive into the opportunity presented by the still immature entrepreneurial ecosystem. “We take risks. It’s a completely risky game. The best thing of investing, in our opinion, is really identifying [which startups will succeed],” he says.

For the startup scene to get into its stride, entrepreneurs and investors need to close the gap between each other’s expectations. “It’s about entrepreneurs understanding what it really means to raise finance, and where to raise it from, who to raise it from. And for investors to understand what it means to invest in early stage companies, how to support them, and what it takes for them to be successful,” says Endeavor’s Sadi.

INVESTOR INTEREST

Because of the lack of investments being made, investors have mostly had the upper hand when it comes to bargaining power and often take unusually large shares of equity in new companies. “Sometimes a startup comes and says [they’ve] found [an] angel investor who wants 80 percent of the company,” says Bizri. “Of course, this doesn’t make any sense, but sometimes they don’t have any choice.”

“Even though there aren’t that many entrepreneurs or quality startups, there’s more of them than there are investors. So investors and the ones with the money are the ones wielding the power,” he adds. “As opposed to Silicon Valley, where if you’re a hot startup, everybody is running after you. Here it’s the opposite.”

Even venture capital firms, perhaps the most active institutional investment platform for entrepreneurs, are closely guarding the interests of their investors in fear that failure at an early stage might dissuade them from further investments in the VC space. “Imagine our first fund does not perform well. We lose our investors. They will not come back,” says Hanna, “and they will not invest in VC probably anymore. What good would this have to the entrepreneurship ecosystem? It’s disastrous,” he says.

Over the past year, more investors have come on the scene as they have witnessed success stories among entrepreneurs. Last year, says Hanna, “we were one of the active ones and the lucky ones because we kind of took advantage of the situation and we chose the crème de la crème of the start-ups. And we invested only in the best of the best. But if we had three or four different competitors that are active, the game would have changed completely. We would have competed together and we would have probably been forced to co-invest in the good deals,” he says.

Having more investors has somewhat democratized the market of late. “Some take high [equity], others take low. Some that have been active in the market for a while take more because they are used to being the only player in the ecosystem. But now that there are many investors, the transactional partnerships between the two are stabilizing. It still hasn’t been completely democratized. But something is moving in the right direction,” says Haddad.

Funding gaps

Despite the growing number of investors, there are important gaps in funding for entrepreneurs at the institutional level as growing companies require various rounds of funding throughout their life cycle. “Generally speaking it’s harder to get good investments in the early stages,” says Fadi Bizri, managing director at Bader Lebanon. “Those who get the initial money — it’s anecdotal — but they get it from friends, family, or this rich uncle or this guy.” He adds, “The government or banks or public institutions don’t handle that. Either you raise it through family — the first 50k, or you participate in competitions like the Bader ones or the MIT (Massachusetts Institute of  Technology) ones. You get your seed money and you start.” This situation could change in the next couple of years, as various players in the ecosystem say talks are happening about the formation of several angel investor networks.

Venture capital funds in Lebanon, though still small, are an island in a sea of less institutionalized investments, and constitute probably the most active form of institutional investment. However the past year has been dry compared to 2012 since many VCs are growing new funds. VCs in Lebanon typically make investments ranging from a couple of hundred thousand to a million and a half dollars. Startups generally migrate to the VC space once they have a tested product, and are looking for subsequent funding and mentorship to grow. Berytech has a $6 million fund that invests in technology startups, through which they have funded around 15 companies. Middle East Venture Partners runs two funds: Middle East Venture Fund and Building Block Equity Fund, with an average ticket size for the region of around $700,000. Wamda also does early stage start-ups for ticket sizes of a few hundred thousand dollars.

But VC’s relatively active role has also seen them take on the roles of other funding bodies. “In Lebanon, VCs behave a bit like U.S. angels. In the U.S., business angels invest anywhere between 50k to a million dollars. And this is what a VC in Lebanon does. Same ticket,” says Hanna. “We’ve done seed capital, startup capital, series A. Even series B… Do we want to invest just 100k in a seed capital type of startup? Sometimes we pass on it, because it’s very complicated. They need a lot of hand-holding, a lot of time to be spent with the company. But our mandate allows us to do so, [although it] doesn’t mean that we like to do so. But we’ve done it several times,” he says. Filling in the gap in the other direction, Wamda, is trying to raise its ticket size to $1 to $3 million in the next year.

the next level

There is another gap: as a company grows it needs larger investments to expand, to the tune of $3 to $5 million dollars. “That’s where it gets stuck,” says Habib Haddad. “The good [startups] today are having a hard time finding a Series B funding round in Lebanon,” says Walid Hanna, managing partner at venture capital firm Middle East Venture Partners. “Our companies, there are 17, four of them are closing series B rounds, from GCC investors. Because Lebanese investors do not write a million or $2 million checks,” says Hanna. “You need more venture capitalist money at various levels. So you need the ones that are willing to put in the $1 million investment, the ones who are willing to put in the $3 million investment, the ones who are willing to put in the $5 to $10 million investment,” says Bizri.

With cash around, the future could be bright for Lebanon’s startup investment scene. But in order to head down the right path both investors and entrepreneurs need to build trust and start compromising in order to meet both of their desires. As the startup scene grows, competition will push entrepreneurs to mature their business plans, and as more investors test the waters, they will hopefully begin to take a few more risks.

November 25, 2013 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

The rise of chronic diseases in the GCC

by Gabriel Chahine, Gabriel ChahineGabriel Chahine & Gabriel Chahine November 25, 2013
written by Gabriel Chahine, Gabriel ChahineGabriel Chahine & Gabriel Chahine

Rapid economic advances in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have improved living standards but simultaneously brought about an increase in public health problems prevalent in developed societies around the world. A wealthier population has adopted the sedentary lifestyles and similarly unhealthy eating habits of developed countries, with the younger generations taking the lead. The result is that more and more people are contracting non-communicable diseases (NCDs) also termed “chronic illnesses” associated with prosperity, such as cardiovascular illnesses, cancer, and respiratory ailments. These illnesses have become the leading cause of death in the GCC, imposing $36 billion annually in healthcare costs, making NCDs a problem whose severity undermines increased prosperity brought about by economic development.

It is widely accepted that the complex nature of NCDs increases the consumption of healthcare services. Patients typically require diligent follow-ups by physicians and frequent contact with the healthcare system. Dr. Margaret Chan, the Director-General of the World Health Organization, has dubbed NCDs “the diseases that break the bank.”

For GCC countries, which have been investing significant sums ($46.5 billion in 2010 and $49.7 billion in 2011) in their healthcare sectors, quantifying that cost is critical. It allows policymakers to alert citizens to the economic costs of chronic illnesses. Across the GCC, healthcare systems are devoting more resources than originally foreseen in order to deal with the five most common NCDs: cardiovascular ailments, malignant neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, neuropsychiatric conditions, and diabetes mellitus.

direct and indirect

The economic burden of NCDs comes in two cost forms, direct and indirect. Direct costs are typically those associated with the treatment of patients, such as consultations, medications, and clinical operations.

Direct costs, however, are just part of the problem. More significant is the indirect economic penalty of chronic diseases. NCDs reduce life expectancy, which means less output. In addition to the immense burden on the patients, NCDs affect their families, reducing their contribution to economic activity. Furthermore, chronic illness and shorter life spans deplete the quality and quantity of the work force. Labor productivity declines because workers are less effective and NCDs lead to increased rates of absenteeism.

At their current prevalence rates, the GCC’s five most common chronic diseases had total direct and indirect costs of close to $36 billion in 2013 — almost 1.5 times this year’s official healthcare budgets. This is based on calculations conducted in 2012 with 2011 data from the respective GCC countries. If governments fail to curb the rising direct costs associated with increasing outpatient and inpatient volumes and the rising indirect costs associated with loss of workforce productivity and rise in early mortality, the economic burden could nearly double to $70 billion by 2022.

The economic burden is unevenly distributed across the region, with different lifestyles having a clear effect. The highest economic cost is in Qatar, also the wealthiest state per capita in the GCC. The direct costs in Qatar in 2013 will be $416 per capita, with the indirect costs at $1,456 per capita.

The lowest economic burden is in Oman, which is still the most traditional society in the region. Omanis exercise more frequently than other GCC populations and the country has the lowest smoking rate. In 2013, the direct cost of NCDs in Oman will be $46 per capita, thanks to relatively few hospital admissions, and the indirect cost $392 per capita.

The NCDs that have the highest direct costs are cardiovascular diseases, which will account for 28 percent of all direct costs in 2013. When it comes to indirect costs, the greatest burden is imposed by malignant neoplasms, or cancers in non-scientific language, which will account for 41 percent of indirect costs in 2013.

Understanding the economic burden is an important step towards formulating policies to restrain this epidemic. Governments need to act rapidly to enact a comprehensive agenda that targets those at risk of developing NCDs and those already afflicted. The agenda must be systematic, not a series of sporadic initiatives. Similarly, while governments must take the lead, and coordinate the effort, they should also involve a wide array of public and private stakeholders to create the optimal enabling environment for lifestyle changes that will lower the incidence of NCDs.

time for action

The success of the NCDs agenda will come from a dynamic balance between short and longterm programs. In the shortterm, governments should limit the opportunities for unhealthy behaviors through financial incentives and disincentives. These include higher taxes on tobacco, which has helped reduce smoking in developed countries. They can set guidelines that favor healthy food in schools, an approach being adopted in the U.S.

Equally important are clinical screening programs for at-risk populations to obtain a better understanding of their health. For example, Abu Dhabi’s Weqaya [Protection] program screened 94 percent of Abu Dhabi nationals for cardiovascular disease. In the process, Weqaya found thousands of cases of other NCDs. Although this program has helped the population in seeking treatment and provided important information that can assist in national health planning, similar initiatives have yet to be established in other GCC countries. 

Over the longterm, governments should aim to nudge their populations to change their unhealthy behaviors. They can encourage changes in individual behavior by providing specific guidelines for those at risk, educating those who care for children, informing adults, and raising awareness among health providers about NCDs. Governments should also reform their healthcare systems to further strengthen primary care and preventative care.

The private sector in the GCC also has means at its disposal to discourage bad habits and encourage healthier behavior among employees. To give some examples, companies have asked smokers to work one extra hour per day to make up for time lost on frequent smoking breaks. Other GCC employers are also starting to focus on occupational wellbeing programs to coach their employees on healthy lifestyle and injury prevention, offer physical exercise classes, and provide healthy food within their facilities. Programs to lower the risk of NCDs, and better manage them, ought to involve innovation and experimentation. With proper monitoring and measurement, successful schemes can be institutionalized, and lower impact programs curtailed. Though awareness of the impact of NCDs has been increasing, GCC countries should take more tangible action and appoint national NCDs coordinators to send a clear message to their population about the importance of NCDs as well as developing coordination across relevant entities such as the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Education.

November 25, 2013 0 comments
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Economics & Policy

A state of insecurity

by Thomas Schellen November 25, 2013
written by Thomas Schellen

Even as Lebanon has recently seen positive developments in its public security frameworks such as the deployment of governmental security in the southern suburbs of Beirut, events around the world, from Peshawar and Baghdad to Nairobi, were a reminder of Lebanon’s own vulnerability. 

Longstanding questions include: What has to be done to enhance security at all sorts of public places which are soft targets for terrorists? Do private individuals have to rethink their personal security strategies?   

Executive looked into the enterprise aspect of this new security focus, on the assumption that the current climate of insecurity must be good for the country’s private sector businesses which deal in security.

Focusing on the preventive and protective aspects of security Executive surveyed three corporate areas in which security is the core business: vendors of security equipment, guard services, and producers of armored cars used for personal protection. Quite expectedly, companies in all three sectors confirmed that they have seen growth in demand for their products and services this year. But growth was not exorbitant.

Representing the equipment vendors, Riccardo Hosri, the president of the Syndicate of Safety and Security Professionals in Lebanon (SSSPL) and deputy general manager of systems provider Sacotel, told Executive that his company saw around 15 percent growth in demand but added that it was regrettable how instability contributes to business growth. “The political insecurity helps. To my greatest disappointment, I have to say that it helps. I am not happy about it.”

Profiting from instability

Hosri could not put a number on the total market size or quantify the demand growth in the Lebanese market for security systems because an SSSPL project to gather market data is still in its infancy.

However, growth in the low double digits — between 10 and 15 or between 15 and 20 percent — was what most sector companies said they were seeing this year. At Mac Corp, an equipment vendor that just last month celebrated 20 years in business, chief executive Jamil Nassar cited 10 to 15 percent growth. Sami Zod, general manager of Zod Securities, one of the longest-established systems specialist companies with market presence since 1977, said growth this year was around 10 percent. 

If this growth trajectory is below what one would suspect from the increases in security incidents and general threat perceptions in Lebanon, one main reason for the subdued development in the turnover of security systems vendors is that the companies’ sales are dependent not only on the fears but also on the economic fates of their corporate clients.
While there is increasing demand for security systems, the overall market is rather stable and there is a shift from automation and fire safety systems in favor of security equipment, Zod said. Nasser explained that his market for installations was driven up to 80 percent by new commercial and residential projects, citing a 2013-completed shopping mall with installation of about 500 CCTV cameras as an example. He added that he saw new demand over the past three years focused on CCTV systems and more recently on explosives detectors.
A campaign against continued use of unsuitable or outright fake explosives detectors has been spearheaded by Zod.

According to the systems vendors, tight purse strings at client companies create a counterweight to increasing corporate security needs. This is also felt by security agencies that provide guards and manned services. The market is “up and down”, said Mahmoud Hammoud, partner and managing director at agency Protectron. On the one hand he received many more inquiries about guard services and had clients call for more coverage, on the other hand he cited many company closures and intense competition as reasons why business wasn’t growing at higher rates than the 10 to 15 percent that the agency was seeing.

A lack of regulation

Price wars instigated by low-end providers, and concerns over keeping business growth in balance with operational risks and long-term viability were factors to be considered in accepting new client contracts, said Patrick al-Khoury, general manager and founder of Patrick Security & Services Agency (PSSA). He confirmed that the economic hardships experienced by clients had led to restraints on their security budgets and cited the example of a hotel where management had asked for a five-month discontinuance of guard dispatches up to the start of the summer season because of cash flow problems. Yet demand growth still was at 15 to 20 percent, he said. “People are getting more scared.” 

When compared with the gloomy mood and demises of companies in parts of the hospitality industry the sentiment among providers of security products is cheerful. Company leaders showed no signs of worry over their future, whether they were providing manned services, low-voltage systems, or converting luxury cars into armored vehicles.    

However, the Lebanese market for all these products and services is inherently small and the business of security in Lebanon is, as far as private sector activity goes, positioned between a craft and a trade. By its size and level of organization, information, and regulation, it cannot be regarded as an industry.

One common characteristic of operating conditions for all security businesses in Lebanon is the weakness or absence of regulation. Depending on perspective and business morals this is either a detriment or generates competitive advantages. Car armoring companies, for example, do not benefit from supervision by a domestic standard-setting body or from government support through tax breaks imaginable for the heavily export-oriented ventures.  If, on the other hand, they don’t voluntarily restrict themselves from serving dubitable customers, car armoring companies are not encumbered by procedures such as having to provide an end-user certificate to ascertain that a buyer of an armored sedan or SUV is beyond suspicion of using the vehicle in a criminal or terrorist enterprise.

Quality supervision and assurance is also not something for which the systems vendors can rely on the Lebanese state or governmental entities. While the systems and equipment vendors in their syndicate have an umbrella organization that sees quality assurance as its top mission, the organization can easily be mistaken for a protectionist one that is preoccupied with shielding the market from unwanted competitors.

However, as SSSPL’s Hosri insisted, the syndicate and its members are in full support of competition “as long as it is fair competition”. In the opinion of Hosri and his peers, the Lebanese government is not doing nearly enough to ensure that the vital sector of security installations in companies and commercial or educational institutions is guarded against substandard providers only after a quick buck.

For the security agencies, it is non-observance of labor standards by dodgy providers that creates pressures. “Many clients will seek to bargain and say that a competitor offered the service for $700 where I asked perhaps $1,100”, said PSSA’s Khoury, referring to the monthly fee for a standard dispatch of one security agent on basis of manning the post 8 hours for 7 days a week.

As he described it, numerous shady operators — 30 or more versus five or fewer professional companies — peddle basic guard services and perhaps advanced services such as personal security detachments (PSD) without having the organizational infrastructure for an effective and secure service and without fulfilling essential responsibilities toward the guards they hire. When charging clients $500 or $700 per manned position, low-end guard companies can stay afloat only if they don’t pay social contributions to their employees such as National Social Security Fund dues and transportation allowances, Khoury explained.

In the entire segment of Lebanon’s private security, companies need better regulatory frameworks to improve quality and have more development options. Even more importantly, the sector will thrive only in the context of stronger public security and a more confident state. Citing Switzerland as an example Hosri noted that security industries perform best in countries with advanced economies and, perhaps counterintuitively, stable political environments.   

Steps towards professionalism

According to Khoury, the serious agencies have a vision to develop the job profile of being protection operatives. A school or training academy for operatives could be created under government supervision but “to make this really work, the country has to be safe,” he said.
It is notable that the private sector operators uniformly welcomed initiatives such as the empowering of municipal police forces. Asked by Executive about the perceived danger that municipal police troops could have exclusionary tendencies, no private security operator saw a strong risk of that.

To the contrary, Zod, whose background is in armed services, reasoned that security works best when based on cell structures like a mobile phone network, and the best neighborhood policing is done by people with intimate knowledge of the people and areas they work in.

“That is why real security is by local police. I am for this plan by [caretaker Interior Minister Marwan] Charbel and I hope it will succeed by hiring good people and paying good salaries.”
The main addressable deficiency in the sphere of security overall seemed to be the lack of professionalism, evidenced most blatantly in the continued presence of fake explosive detectors at public and commercial sites. The friendliest assumption for this is that the managers responsible see the devices as providing some feel-safe effect. However, the imposing of security placebos comes with severe ethical and practical problems.

This is the kind of issue where the responsibility to regulate and act lies with the public guarantor of national security, the state. Private sector companies can assist in creating awareness, implementing preventive solutions and developing response scenarios, but their roles cannot go farther.

For a further positive perspective on the relatively slow market for security products and services in Lebanon, one can argue that reluctance by businesses and average consumers to convert their inquiries into actual purchases of security systems demonstrates a lower actual threat perception when compared with the talk of Lebanon’s impending slippage into disaster. The numbers suggest that the country feels safer than some say.
 

November 25, 2013 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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