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Hospitality & TourismVoices

Singing the blues

by Nabila Rahhal December 16, 2012
written by Nabila Rahhal

“We will keep witnessing closures of venues and bankruptcies every month, especially the small, less established outlets. This has always been the case, but [in 2013] the rate of these closures will increase and profitability will drop across the sector.”

Marwan Ayoub, Managing and Founding Partners at Venture Hospitality

“2011 was a very good year for us, one of the best years ever for Sushi Bar. 2012 started well, even better than the previous year, up until May when the drop was kick-started. Depending on the outlet, we are somewhere between 11 percent and 19 percent below last year, which constitutes a substantial decrease, but not a major loss.”

Mario Haddad Junior, owner of Sushi Bar, Falamanki and Jasmine Room

“If the regional situation continues like this, we will be facing a bigger crisis as tourists continue to avoid Lebanon, and overseas expats fear visiting. Already, the high tourist season in Lebanon is getting smaller with barely a productive week of festivities in the winter and a month in the summer, especially with Ramadan now in it.”

Toni Rizk, Managing Partner at TRI Food & Beverage

“The situation around us will not stop us from further diversifying our portfolios because throughout the country’s history there has been turmoil, and things have reached rock bottom often… we use this down time to find good opportunities and when the market picks up we will be ready.”

Hady Fadel, Corporate Marketing Manager at Boubess Group

“The best way to describe the coming period, which actually started a few months ago, is “challenging” — a challenge that could be called survival until we see better days. It is necessary to reduce costs to cope with the consequences of such a delicate situation we are currently experiencing.”

Rana el-Khoury, General Manager at Le Gray Hotel
December 16, 2012 0 comments
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Real estateVoices

The crème of ‘concretization’

by Thomas Schellen December 16, 2012
written by Thomas Schellen

“[For the real estate market overall], 2012 was one of the most difficult years since 2005. People are used to ups and downs in this country and have learned to disassociate the political developments from real estate. However, we felt that the recession in the sector was the harshest in a long time, and the harshest on many fronts. Capstone is a different story. We just recently closed a very big deal in real estate, probably the biggest deal in the market in many years. We purchased a plot of 2,500 square meters in a very prime location of Beirut: Sursock, Ashrafieh. Capital in this transaction was two times oversubscribed. This story tells you that there is still appetite in the market for a good product where investors can go in not for the short term but the long term, four or five years. People have hope for the future.”

Ziad Maalouf, Chief Executive of Capstone Investment Group

“Because of the size of Beirut, which is small, and because of the high prices demanded for properties, especially in prime areas, the only way to go [for developers] is vertically. There is very little room to grow laterally and it is very expensive to grow laterally. The issue then becomes how do you do it without terribly impacting the heritage. We have taken the view that heritage to the extent that it is genuine heritage, not just any old building, should be preserved at any price. So we have never attempted to build in areas where there are heritage houses that would have to be demolished for the development. In Sursock we built alongside the Linda Sursock Villa in a way that we have allowed its visibility from all angles and we have intended to wed the new structure to the old structure. Some people obviously like that, some don’t. Some developers have not been conscious enough and have demolished old houses that are of character. That is unfortunate.”

Nabil Sawabini, Chairman and Chief Executive of MENA Capital

“The economy has been really affected by the regional crisis and I think 2013 will be a little quiet, but we are doing fine. In the company we still have three projects [with deliveries] for three years to come and I have told my investors that we will take it easy. We will maintain our clientele, provide all the services and make sure that we will provide [our buyers with] whatever is required. We are not going to be aggressive. We are working on a few new projects that will be something really different in Beirut but we are not actually in a hurry. If we don’t do it next year, we will do it the year after.”

 Ayad Nasser, Chief Executive of Loft Investments

“On the side of sales, the office market will follow the market situation, which is a slowdown on basically everything. However, there is a niche that can be satisfied, which is a luxury office product in a key location with good accessibility and visibility. I believe that there is a market for it and it will endure in 2013. The same goes for office rentals. A lot of supply is coming. Projects in grade ‘A-plus’ office space are usually for larger companies who come here to open regional offices, and the political situation will not be suitable for such projects. But there is a niche for luxury offices of grade ‘A’ or ‘B-plus’; the local Lebanese market will need to buy or rent [such spaces] because Lebanon is where their business is and they believe in the market.”

Houssam Batal, Chief Executive of Premium Projects

“The idea for the association of developers is based on the fact that real estate development today is one of the most important sectors of the economy in Lebanon. We believe that development deserves to have an association. You need to negotiate with the banks, with the central bank about interest rates and with the ministries and municipalities. I also believe that one of the missions of this association should be to secure statistics. If I want to start a new project today in Sin El Fil or Ashrafieh, a good association and secretariat will provide us with some statistics, obtain information from the syndicate of engineers and act as the link between all stakeholders. It must be a professional association, having nothing to do with political [interests] but only defend the interests of developers.”

 George Chehwane, Chairman and Chief Executive of Plus Properties
December 16, 2012 0 comments
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Banking & FinanceVoices

Words from the vault

by Maya Sioufi December 16, 2012
written by Maya Sioufi

“Everything else being equal, I don’t foresee better economic conditions than the ones prevailing in Lebanon. If we can sustain the current levels it’s a positive thing. We need to see transformational changes in the region.”

Freddie Baz, Chief Financial Officer of Bank Audi

“We are in Syria for the long term. We see in the medium-to-long term a lot of potential. We expect like everyone else that events will still be very bad and we have no expectations for things to improve in the short term. It will take several years probably before things improve.”

Saad Azhari, Chairman and General Manager of Blom Bank

“Regarding the Financial Markets Authority, of course we need better rules and regulation to avoid further stock manipulation but at the end of the day, we need more companies to list on the exchange.”

Jean Riachi, Chief Executive and Chairman of FFA Private Bank

“I think the government should not be interfering with wages across the board but only ensure the minimum wage rate. For them to be involved in my or your salary is none of their business. At end of the day, businesses will pay what they feel is the market price for X, Y, Z because if you are not paying it [people] will move somewhere else.” 

Anwar Jammal, Chief Executive and Chairman of Jammal Trust Bank

“The biggest challenge this year was the external environment. It was not forecast. The geopolitics of Lebanon this year was worse than we expected. I think despite that we are very positive about the resilience of the economy because history has shown that the banking sector is very resilient.”

Pik Yee Foong, Chief Executive of Standard Chartered Bank Lebanon

“The banks are in a Maronite marriage with the government in terms of financing [the public sector]. Banks have to refrain from being open to new increases in treasury bills. They are happy to continue supporting the government with the current level of debt and refinancing maturing Eurobonds but not to [increase their exposure] significantly.”

Ghassan Assaf, Chairman and General Manager of BBAC

“It’s a love-hate relationship with the private sector for two reasons: it is a small sector with competitive pricing and it [requires] a very time-intensive service. For instance, you service [the chief executive] of a small [or] medium enterprise for $15,000 and you have to see him every couple of days to service him. It’s not like putting that amount in a T-bill and getting the interest once a year from the central bank. This has to do with your readiness to service the private sector. Doing it and saying it are two different things.”

Tarek Khalife, Chairman of Credit Bank

“We are paying very high indirect taxes. The war has been over for more than 20 years now and we still don’t have proper electricity. It’s the biggest bill we are paying. Companies are paying a hell of a lot of money. This is murder; it is a crime for the country. With all our pride of being innovative etcetera, and we can’t solve electricity. It’s a disaster.”

Rami el-Nemr, Chairman and General Manager of First National Bank
December 16, 2012 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyVoices

Remarks from the top

by Zak Brophy December 16, 2012
written by Zak Brophy

“We are all one family at MEA but everyone must know that I am the father of the family.”

Mohammad Hout, Chairman of Middle East Airlines, after a strike by pilots

“There is no dispute, we will not compromise on our right to the full 860 square kilometers.”

Gebran Bassil, Minister of Energy and Water, on the contested maritime Exclusive Economic Zone between Lebanon and Israe

“Concerning the election, we are awaiting the law. We can’t say anything before the law. But electorally speaking, everything is possible.”

Ghazi Aridi, Minister of Public Works and Transport, on the potential of Walid Jumblatt breaking the government coalition

“There is oil and gas five kilometers south of our borders — do we think God created a wall  between us and Palestine? All of this area is rich in the Levantine basin.”

Mohammad Qabbani, Head of the Parliamentary Energy and Public Works Committee

“We have reached an economic situation where we are stranded in the middle of a tunnel and there is no end in sight. We are seeing bankruptcies and lots of companies closing down.”

Mohammad Choucair, President of the Lebanese Chamber of Commerce

“We need to work more and produce more and spend less. We need to move away from this culture of debt. This simply isn’t working anymore.”

Charles Arbid, President of the Lebanese Franchisers Association

“There are different sovereign funds and Arab Development Funds that came to the government to fund developments in the electricity sector.  They said, ‘no we don’t need them’. Honestly, they don’t know their ass from their elbow.”

Roudi Baroudi, independent energy consultant and secretary general of the World Energy Council’s Lebanon member committee

“We need a master plan and we need the national accounts on regular terms and clear terms so we can assess our economy on reliable figures and trends and criteria. This is an important place where real change needs to happen.”

Nicolas Nahas, Minister of Economy and Trade
December 16, 2012 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLebanon 2013: The big ideas

Regional councils can help Lebanon grow

by Sami Atallah December 15, 2012
written by Sami Atallah

Lebanon is presented with the most serious challenges it has faced in the past decade. The economy is struggling, the internal security situation deteriorating and the country’s neighbors pose real threats. But amidst everything, there are opportunities — not just in newfound offshore oil and gas but also within the country’s ingenious population.

As we head into 2013, what can be done to help the country unite, to overcome its challenges and ultimately to grow? Over the course of this week, eight influential figures will address seven important topics, each suggesting one proposal to help the country move forward. 

Today, Sami Atallah makes the case for regional councils.

 

To improve Lebanon’s democracy, we need to rethink our system of devolved government. Right now we have regional municipalities and municipal unions, but neither of them function properly. Instead I propose the introduction of regional councils to connect the country along non-sectarian lines and help it grow.

Municipalities and municipal unions: Failing us all.

Since municipal elections were reinstalled in 1998, they have no doubt reinvigorated local democracy, and provided an impetus for decentralization. However, municipalities remain administratively and fiscally constrained, limiting their service delivery to a fraction of their supposed responsibilities. The number of municipalities in Lebanon, which has mushroomed from 718 in 1998 to 985 in 2012, is too high for 4.5 million people in a tiny country. Croatia, for example, has the same population as Lebanon but five times the surface area, yet it only needs 429 municipalities.

Furthermore, 70 percent of Lebanese municipalities have a registered population of less than 4,000. Almost 400 municipalities do not have a single employee and another 400 have very weak municipal administration. The few municipalities that have the fiscal resources to hire qualified staff face bureaucratic hurdles in their hiring procedures. For instance, it took the municipality of Ba’aklin three years, 73 referrals, and up to 15 signatures to hire a treasurer.

On top of this, they simply do not have the financial ability to do their jobs. The total amount of spending by the municipal sector amounted 6.3 percent of central government expenditure (excluding debt), while their revenue was almost 9 percent. Both of these are significantly lower than the 12 to 15 percent found in many comparable countries.

In effect, municipalities have fallen into a vicious cycle: many of them have no staff to collect fees and taxes and without municipal revenue they are unable to hire staff. Consequently, many are unable to provide services despite the wide range of competencies given to them by law.

On top of these, there are municipal unions, which have become important stakeholders in the context of decentralization. Today, there are 48 unions, of which 35 were established in the last decade. These unions include a total of 680 municipalities as members and are responsible for two-thirds of the population of the country.

Municipal unions are supposed to provide public projects of common interest including roads, sewerage, garbage, slaughterhouses,firefighting, organization of transportation, co-operatives, and markets. Although some have been able to provide services and undertake development projects, their work is constrained by overlapping competencies between municipalities and unions, weak administrative capabilities, excessive procedures to hire municipal staff, and low fiscal resources to undertake developmental projects.

Time for a rethink

I believe it is time to rethink our system of local government. There is a need to redesign the system in an integrated way — helping poorer areas become better-linked to richer ones. This requires a new tier of government on a regional level.

Under such a plan, the central government would be responsible for functions of national concern — such as trade, defense, foreign affairs, criminal and civil law, and industrial policy — while municipalities would focus on hyper-local issues such as street-cleaning and garbage collection. In between, the newly-formed regional administrations would help ensure integrated development.

These councils would be given the responsibility for applying national laws to the regions, thus redistributing the competencies and responsibilities of municipalities, unions, regional councils, and the central government.

More importantly, these councils should be directly elected by citizens. This would enhance democracy, help us move away from sectarianism and break the stranglehold on power of the traditional political groups.

One of the major problems in Lebanon is the inability to directly elect the head of the major political institutions, meaning deals are made behind closed doors. If the heads of these councils were directly elected along non-sectarian lines, they would have a mandate to bring about change.

For these new councils to be effective, they must have the fiscal authority to set the tax rate as well as collect it. Hence there is a need to reallocate some of the taxes and fees currently collected directly by municipalities to regional councils where economies of scale are possible. Regional councils must be endowed with the tax administration to ef?ciently and effectively collect these taxes.

Although direct taxes and fees ensure a degree of ?scal independence, they are unlikely to cover the spending needed for regional administrations. Two additional sources of revenues must be channeled towards them: the first is from the Independent Municipal Fund (composed of 11 taxes which are used to finance municipalities) where a significant portion of its revenue could be transferred to regional administrations rather than spent by the central government on items that do not benefit smaller regions of the country. Second, there is estimated to be at least $1 billion in revenues collected over the years by the Ministry of Telecommunication that was not distributed to municipalities.

Although direct taxes and fees ensure a degree of fiscal independence, they will unlikely cover the spending needed for regional administrations. Two additional sources of revenues must be channeled towards them: The first is from the Independent Municipal Fund (composed of 11 taxes which are used to finance municipalities) where a significant portion of its revenue could be transferred to regional administrations rather than spent by the central government on items that do not benefit smaller regions of the country. Second, there is at least an estimated $1 billion of revenues collected over the years by the Ministry of Telecommunication that was not distributed to municipalities.

The Lebanese often bemoan the state of their democracy, but many feel powerless to help change it. These proposals could make a real difference to all our lives.

Sami Atallah is Director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies

December 15, 2012 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLebanon 2013: The big ideas

A green economy could work

by Nada Zaarour December 14, 2012
written by Nada Zaarour

Lebanon is presented with the most serious challenges it has faced in the past decade. The economy is struggling, the internal security situation deteriorating and the country’s neighbors pose real threats. But amidst everything, there are opportunities — not just in newfound offshore oil and gas but also within the country’s ingenious population.

As we head into 2013, what can be done to help the country unite, to overcome its challenges and ultimately to grow? Over the course of this week, eight influential figures will address seven important topics, each suggesting one proposal to help the country move forward. 

Today, Nada Zaarour makes the case for taking the environment more seriously.

A decade into the 21st century, it is about time our citizens and politicians realized the economic, environmental and social benefits to be achieved from moving towards a low-carbon future.

Just mentioning the word ‘green’ brings to the minds of many Lebanese mistaken clichés of tree huggers, reduced economic growth, expensive products and unfeasible styles of living. But to meet the needs of the new technology-driven world, Lebanon has little option but to transform its economy and society into a green one.

It is increasingly clear that escalating climate change is destroying the globe’s natural ecosystem, with forests ravaged and rivers poisoned. Exacerbating the crisis, especially in cities like Beirut, is rapid population growth — not merely in terms of resource use, but also in terms of services and infrastructure. It is hard to avoid the basic conclusion that the ecosystem which underpins the Lebanese economy is shrinking at a rapid pace, leaving the poor particularly vulnerable.

Eventually, Lebanon’s economic development requires a list of financial and government policy-guiding mechanisms to ensure that ample investments are made into crucial areas. These would be tailored to embellish existing natural capital while simultaneously minimizing environmental risks. For these changes to happen, Lebanon will undoubtedly need fundamental reform, and I believe that there are four main steps to doing so.

See also:

Former Labor Minister Charbel Nahas on rethinking the economy

Roudi Baroudi on the country’s oil and gas

British Ambassador Tom Fletcher on foreign interference

Hicham Safieddine on the Syria spillover

Saleh Machnouk on disarming Hezbollah

First, we must develop and promote an efficient and fair transition to a green economy, including establishing fully-fledged fiscal and economic policy measures where market infrastructures encourage new investment. Second, tax reforms that encourage environmental sustainability should be proposed, along with a definite revision of the current inflated taxing measures. Third, we must drive market change through public expenditure, including at an individual level spending our money on environmentally friendly goods, and at a larger level encouraging the government to invest in cleaner infrastructure provisions and sustainable procurement.

Finally, and crucially, we need to foster a new awareness that while reforming the country’s unsustainable economic activity might be politically difficult in the short-term, moving towards a green economy in the longer-term is fiscally advantageous in every way.

Such moves require serious changes to the decision-making processes within institutions like the Ministry of Finance. The many governments that we have had in Lebanon since the civil war have tended to favor short-term, financial crisis strategies, supporting non-renewable energy at the expense of other sectors while continuing to exploit our natural capital. Yet the upcoming challenges are far too big to be dealt with by such short-sighted strategies and we must consider beyond the next few years.

There are benefits to be made as well. Globally, renewable energy investments are expected to reach $630 billion by 2030, up from $162 billion in 2009, and are expected to create an additional 20 million jobs worldwide. What might seem surprising is that many emerging and developing economies are already reaping the benefits of moving towards a green economy. One example, which demonstrates the multiple benefits that can be realized from promoting new green sectors — in addition to greening the traditional brown sectors — is the expected growth of certified biodiversity-friendly agricultural products from $40 billion in 2008 to $21 billion by 2020.

Lebanon must accelerate efforts to shift from this unsustainable ‘brown’ economic system to a low-carbon, resource-rich green economy. A country like Lebanon, blessed with the natural resources of wind and water, could easily lessen excessive dependence on fossil fuels, such as oil, gas and coal. We must not use the very new findings of offshore oil and gas to ignore this issue, as if we do, later generations will have no choices left.

Nada Zaarour is the vice-president of Lebanon’s Green Party

The opinions expressed in this article are the views of the author and not of Executive Magazine

Contribute to the Twitter debate using the hashtag #Leb2013

December 14, 2012 0 comments
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The Buzz

Morning briefing: 14 Dec 2012

by Executive Staff December 14, 2012
written by Executive Staff

Economics

Brent crude rose above $108 a barrel on Friday on a brighter outlook for China's economy, the world's second largest oil consumer, but worries about the impact of a possible US fiscal crisis capped price gains.

More from Reuters

 

Oman is interested in buying weapons systems from the United States in a deal worth $117m.

More from Arabian Business

 

The Iraqi committee charged with investigation the cancelled Russian arms deal has confirmed that the contract was rife with corruption. However, it will not announce its findings “as it still lacks evidence that is not yet available.”

More from Al-Monitor

 

Spanish police say they have seized some €28 million ($36.5 million) of assets linked to deposed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

More from Associated Press

 

The prospects of a lucrative shopping season in Lebanon are better than last year’s poor holiday period, but some businesses have taken pre-emptive measures, cutting prices early, to ensure they meet their targets.

More from The Daily Star

 

Companies

A Saudi Arabian investment company has set up a joint venture with SAHO, a Siberian grain producer, to ship Russian wheat and barley to the Middle East and North Africa, the two companies have said.

More from Arabian Business

 

Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) has signed a $2.5bn syndicated loan after launching the deal at $2bn in October, the 10 arranging banks have said in a statement.

More from Arabian Business

 

Qatar Telecom, also known as Qtel, has tapped capital markets with a US$1billion (Dh3.67bn) 10-year bond as it considers expansion in North Africa.

More from The National

December 14, 2012 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLebanon 2013: The big ideas

Disarm Hezbollah to restore state authority

by Saleh El-Machnouk December 13, 2012
written by Saleh El-Machnouk

Lebanon is presented with the most serious challenges it has faced in the past decade. The economy is struggling, the internal security situation deteriorating and the country’s neighbors pose real threats. But amidst everything, there are opportunities — not just in newfound offshore oil and gas but also within the country's ingenious population.

As we head into 2013, what can be done to help the country unite, to overcome its challenges and ultimately to grow? Over the course of this week, eight influential figures will address seven important topics, each suggesting one proposal to help the country move forward. 

Today, two leading writers with diametrically opposed views suggest ways to improve Lebanon’s security. Here Saleh El-Machnouk calls for disarming Hezbollah, while Hicham Safieddine calls for a security pact to prevent the Syria spillover.

 

Of all the problems we suffer from in Lebanon today, one is not only at the root of most of our other problems, but also stands in the way of our ability to move forward and help resolve the major socio-economic difficulties with which we struggle every day. That problem is Hezbollah’s arsenal of weapons. From allegedly assassinating former premier Rafik al-Hariri, to militarily invading west Beirut, and later enforcing the overthrow of the ‘national unity’ government; these weapons have turned into Lebanon’s cancerous disease, spreading fast and ensuring that no part of our nation remains unharmed.

We cannot survive as a country unless this problem is resolved. And any attempt to resolve other pending issues is hardly fruitful as long as our sovereignty is violated, our security threatened, our stability endangered, and our democratic system in shatters. I am fully aware that a solid majority of our educated elite has grown allergic to repeated, yet unfulfilled, calls by politicians for disarming illegal militias, especially given the endless disappointments caused by the March 14 coalition's retractions and deal-makings over the past several years.

As a young Lebanese citizen, I would have much preferred to speak of improvements such as rethinking our constitution, rewriting our electoral laws, developing our tourism industry, and growing our economy. But what purpose would that accomplish given that our constitution is disregarded, the identity of who wins the elections is rendered insignificant, one bomb could nullify years of effort in our tourist sector, and no Lebanese or foreign entity is willing to seriously consider investing significant sums of money in a country governed by little more than the laws of nature.

See also: Former Labor Minister Charbel Nahas on rethinking the economy

Roudi Baroudi on the country's oil and gas

British Ambassador Tom Fletcher on foreign interference

We now live in a quasi-failed state. Hezbollah’s weapons have given rise to an unbelievable degree of lawlessness. Tribal militias kidnap foreigners and appear live in a press conference on national television to discuss the terms of negotiations, and fundamentalist religious groups are on their way to building military capacities in order to balance those of Hezbollah. If we do not solve this problem through a firm willingness to consolidate and strengthen the state’s authority in 2013, we very likely might find ourselves once again engulfed in civil war, as the breakdown of the state reaches its final stages.

Going forward

Disarming Hezbollah, however, is not all talk. We need a plan, and as the Arab Spring continues to unfold and the murderous Syrian dictator approaches his inevitable downfall, it is time to develop a concrete strategy to put an end to the predicament hindering our national progress. What I suggest here is a four-point plan to move forward on the disarmament of Hezbollah and the restoration of state authority in 2013.

Reform March 14:  There is very little chance that we can make progress on any vital national issues if the political movement which once embodied the dreams of most Lebanese in a sovereign state remains the way it is today. The movement has lost its soul, its independents, its credibility and its ability to inspire and lead. Its leadership should clearly acknowledge that it has been on a disastrous path for five years now, and that it is time for real change. It must also recognize that confronting Hezbollah requires sacrifices and that the approach prioritizing short-term artificial stability and unity has failed miserably.

Stop undermining liberal Shias: The fact that Hezbollah and Amal terrorize their political opponents notwithstanding, the March 14 coalition has since 2005 greatly undermined the power and influence of what was then a sizeable Shia minority of dissidents. It did so because it foolishly believed (and still does) that Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri is its real ally in eventually defeating Hezbollah. This behavior has not only been immoral, it has transformed the battle into a largely Sunni-Shia confrontation whereas it really is one between state sovereignty and militias. Without the support of an empowered Shia coalition of allies, the battle against Hezbollah will continue to be framed as a sectarian conflict, and is doomed to fail.

Strengthen the Lebanese Army and believe in it: It is important to come to the realization that Hezbollah’s weapons are first and foremost a military problem, and that although political efforts are necessary, it is simplistic to assume that we can solve this problem without a considerable role for the Lebanese Army in an eventual confrontation. The army, however, needs to be supported and equipped in kind, and also needs to have confident and able political leadership guiding its missions.

Win the elections and form a pro-sovereignty government: March 14 can very well win the upcoming elections, and with a solid majority. But in order to do that it must make a clear, irrevocable pledge to its people that this time things are going to be different. Nabih Berri will not be elected as speaker, a March 14 government will be formed, and this government will move forward in dealing with illegitimate militias. And as it wins the elections, it should form a government that will unmistakably delegitimize Hezbollah’s weapons in its ministerial statement, courageously order the army to use force if necessary to disallow the carrying or transport of any weaponry on Lebanese territory, and unambiguously order the armed forces arrest the assassins of former Premier Hariri no matter the costs. While complete disarmament might not be feasible at first, containment is definitely the right step in the right direction.

We had big dreams in 2005. Seven years later, we find ourselves struggling in a country where there is no hope for young men and women to have a better future. 2013 is a defining year. The entire region is changing, and we have reached a crossroads where we need to make difficult decisions about our future. We have an abundance of problems in our country we need to work on — from health care to education and jobs — but if we don’t restore state authority and legitimize the rule of law this coming year, there might not be much of Lebanon left for us to fix.

Saleh El Machnouk is a Lebanese activist and a former lecturer in politics at the Lebanese American University. He is currently pursuing his graduate studies at Harvard University.

The opinions expressed in this article are the views of the author and not of Executive Magazine

Contribute to the Twitter debate using the hashtag #Leb2013 

December 13, 2012 0 comments
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Economics & PolicyLebanon 2013: The big ideas

Stop the Syria spillover: towards a security pact

by Hicham Safieddine December 13, 2012
written by Hicham Safieddine

Lebanon is presented with the most serious challenges it has faced in the past decade. The economy is struggling, the internal security situation deteriorating and the country’s neighbors pose real threats. But amidst everything, there are opportunities — not just in newfound offshore oil and gas but also within the country's ingenious population.

As we head into 2013, what can be done to help the country unite, to overcome its challenges and ultimately to grow? Over the course of this week, eight influential figures will address seven important topics, each suggesting one proposal to help the country move forward. 

Today, two leading writers with diametrically opposed views suggest ways to improve Lebanon’s security. Here Hicham Safieddine calls for a security pact to end the Syria spillover, while Saleh el-Machnouk demands Hezbollah be disarmed.

 

Between 1990 and 2005, Lebanon’s main security threat was Israel. The end of the civil war largely restricted the use of arms to liberating South Lebanon from Israeli occupation, a task that came to be dominated by Hezbollah. A quasi-national consensus regarding this role — consolidated under Syrian tutelage — retrieved a semblance of order and control for Lebanese society. The assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005 did not eliminate Israel as a primary threat, but it ended the already emaciated national consensus around Hezbollah’s right to bear arms. It also reduced Syrian influence in Lebanon, which in turn, for better or for worse, weakened state authority. From 2005 till 2011, an Israeli war, a week-long civil war, the destruction of a Palestinian camp, and a string of assassinations, further eroded any sense of daily security among the population.

In 2011 and 2012, the threats of foreign aggression and domestic strife have been compounded by a third major destabilizing factor: the Syrian uprising. It is likely that Syria (and the sprouting of armed groups in Lebanon linked to the conflict), rather than Hezbollah’s arms, will be the major source of Lebanon’s instability in 2013. A quick visit to Hezbollah-dominated southern Lebanon and another to the Salafi-friendly north confirms this claim. While the south has witnessed very few incidents of domestic insecurity, there is hardly a day in the north where pro and anti-regime militias don’t clash and ordinary people pay the price. Sections of the northern city of Tripoli have been rendered largely uninhabitable while almost the entire border with Syria is off limits.

The stark difference between the security situation in the south and that in the north is due to the differing political agendas of Hezbollah and the Salafi groups respectively. Contrary to worn-out polemics by March 14 coalition pundits, as well as Israeli and US government spokespeople, Hezbollah has proven to be an extremely rational and largely reactive rather than active actor when it comes to its arms. As far back as the 1990s, Hezbollah called for rules of engagement with the occupation forces to save civilian lives and reached such an understanding in 1996. Four years later, following the Israeli withdrawal from most of South Lebanon, the party behaved with restraint that is hard to match in the modern history of revolutionary or resistance movements. It did not conduct a single summary execution against suspected agents of the occupation, but handed them over for trial. Hezbollah has also struck and followed up on prisoner deals with Israel and accepted the presence of 15,000 United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon troops in southern Lebanon to monitor the borders. Even in May 2008, when Hezbollah broke its oath of restricting its weapons use to fighting Israel, its armed offensive against March 14 posts was very limited and a response to a very concrete threat to its land communications network — an indispensable weapon in its long time war with Israel.

A force for stability

More than five years after the 2006 war, Hezbollah in fact has proved a force of stability and deterrence; Israel now thinks twice before any large-scale military aggression. Therefore as long as there is no international will to tackle ongoing Israeli violations of Lebanese security and unless the Lebanese army becomes capable of providing a sustainable and credible alternative of deterrence, talk of disarming Hezbollah is either naïve or misleading.

See also: Former Labor Minister Charbel Nahas on rethinking the economy

Roudi Baroudi on the country's oil and gas

British Ambassador Tom Fletcher on foreign interference

The irony of these calls is exposed when these same voices turn a blind eye or justify the increased militarization of Salafi militias. Unlike Hezbollah, these militias have very loose hierarchical structures and have proven to be trigger-happy. Their deep involvement in the Syrian crisis has led to a mounting spill-over of fighting into Lebanon. The backdoor support of March 14 groups and their arming of rebels inside Syria, now an open secret, has further inflamed tension. Trying to topple the Damascus regime from Lebanon has historically been a dangerous and foolish endeavour with grave consequences to Lebanon’s security in the long run. March 14 politicians' involvement in the armed struggle against the Assad regime is utterly hypocritical, given their calls for restraint regarding Lebanon being used as a base for armed struggle against Israel, and their incessant complaints of Syrian intervention in Lebanon.

Hezbollah is not free of blame either. The party’s role in the Syrian conflict, the extent of which remains unclear, has also had a detrimental effect on internal security. While cognizant of the role Damascus plays in supporting the Resistance, any military support for a regime that has oppressed and bombed its people is hard to justify. Hezbollah should not be expected to shoulder any of the dirty work, and if Damascus is incapable of maintaining its own security it is not clear how it can continue to back the Resistance beyond its borders.

Ending Syria involvement

As the political schism widens and grows more violent, a sustainable solution would entail agreeing to a security pact or understanding on how to deal with the Syrian crisis. An ideal arrangement would be a holistic one. Both factions, March 14 and March 8, would commit to ending any military involvement in Syria and the Lebanese army would see to it that this policy is enforced. March 14 would drop the dubious call for disarming Hezbollah while the latter would reassert and guarantee its restricted use to fighting Israel. A national policy of aiding all Syrian civilian refugees without discrimination would be implemented, while political activism at the grassroots level would be tolerated and protected from sabotage.

All of that may not be enough. A contextualized security strategy dealing with non-state weapons in the country will remain inadequate if economic insecurity is not addressed. Basic economic and social needs from food security to clean water to electric power provision are being ignored by the political elites, loyal to March 8 and March 14. Any remaining integrity of state authority is eroding, thereby creating a vacuum filled by the political factions and their military arms. Tensions will reach a boiling point as the country edges closer towards parliamentary elections slated for the upcoming spring. A security pact could help Lebanon avoid strife in 2013; the status-quo could destroy it.

 

Hicham Safieddine is a Lebanese journalist and researcher

The opinions expressed in this article are the views of the author and not of Executive Magazine

Contribute to the Twitter debate using the hashtag #Leb2013 

December 13, 2012 0 comments
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The Buzz

Morning briefing: 13 Dec 2012

by Executive Staff December 13, 2012
written by Executive Staff

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