Executive Insights

The Lebanese banks‘ 2008 report card

by Marwan Salem
written by Marwan Salem

In July, I authored a report for FFA Private Bank titled “The Lebanese banking sector 2008,” which examined the Lebanese banks’ fundamentals, performance, financial strength and the challenges the sector faces going forward.

The report pinpoints that the Lebanese banking sector has steadily grown over the years relative to the size of the domestic economy, having amassed assets in excess of 327 percent of Lebanon’s gross domestic product amidst ongoing deposit inflows. The increase was driven by several comparative advantages, including a banking secrecy law, a skilled workforce, a relatively stable currency and high yields on local and foreign currency compared to peer countries. The strict regulatory framework and conservative policies set by the central bank that shielded Lebanese banks from exposure to toxic assets and structured products also helped considerably.

Over the past decade, the Lebanese banking landscape has changed significantly, moving from a highly competitive and fragmented environment to an asset consolidation environment. The period also witnessed the expansion of Lebanese banks on the regional scene.

Banks’ balance sheets suggest that Lebanese banks are “deposit-rich banks,” as they are funded mainly through customer deposits, which accounted for about 83 percent of total liabilities and shareholders’ equity during 2008. But the asset allocation also reflects the large exposure to sovereign debt, with more than 50 percent of the assets made up of government and central bank paper, mirroring the fact that the Lebanese banking sector is acting as the backbone of the economy, providing funding for its sovereign debt by accumulating customer deposits.

The report noted that the Lebanese banking sector has demonstrated remarkable growth over the years despite the persistent political instability and the global financial crisis that surged in 2008, proving its resilience to external turmoil. Initially, customer deposits were bolstered by the inflow of wealth following the civil war and by the ample petrodollar liquidity in the region that flowed into the sector in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 events in the United States.

More recently, deposit growth was triggered by the Lebanese banking sector emerging as a safe haven for depositors in light of the prudent policies set by the central bank and the attractive interest rates on deposits compared to regional peers. In 2008, the sector added $10.5 billion in deposits, implying a 15.6 percent year-on-year growth rate. The dollarization rate dropped from 77.3 percent in December 2007 to 69.6 percent in December 2008, highlighting the renewed confidence in the Lebanese currency and the economy as a whole. Supported by solid economic activity and steadied by a stable political situation, loans growth recovered in the last two years and lending grew at a compound annual growth rate of 17.3 percent between fiscal year 2007 and fiscal year 2008, compared to a rate of 0.63 percent between 2000 and 2006.

The Lebanese banking sector has reported regular growth in profits across a seven-year track. In recent years, profitability was favored by an increasing contribution of regional entities to the sector’s income, a recovery in lending activity and improving cost-to-income ratio. As a result of a further diversification of the Lebanese banks’ business lines, non-interest income has witnessed significant growth in the past few years, but remains underdeveloped relative to the net interest income, which accounts for 69 percent of the sector’s total income.

Thus, the performance of Lebanese banks is closely linked to the interest spread between the cost of funding and yields on uses of funds. Prospects for sustained profitability will depend on the maintenance of growth in earnings within the context of international interest rate contraction. The banking sector will also need to attract additional deposits from operations abroad as regional economies slow.

But the FFA report also states that the Lebanese banking sector is growing without any detriment to its financial position and asset quality. Banks’ asset quality improved during the political and security difficulties of the last few years; loan portfolios also showed strong growth. The Lebanese banks also enjoy very high liquidity levels, while banks around the globe suffered from the severe liquidity crisis. But most importantly, Lebanese commercial banks are solidly capitalized, as witnessed by their capital adequacy ratio standing at 11.23 percent, significantly above the 8 percent required by the Basel II committee.

The immediate risks facing the Lebanese banking sector remain limited given its ability to counterbalance the adverse effect of the global financial crisis. The positive factors include ongoing deposit inflows, increasing oil prices and the political and security improvements following the parliamentary elections in June.

But the FFA report notes that Lebanese banks are faced with two key risks. First, their high exposure to the sovereign debt in light of the fragile political environment. The second risk is the highly uncertain political and security environment in which they operate. According to the report, the immunity of the Lebanese banking sector is correlated to the consolidation of the recent domestic achievements; they include the economic growth recovery and the decline in government debt ratios.

Marwan Salem is head of research & advisory at FFA Private Bank

The authors of Executive Insights have been invited by this magazine to offer their professional opinions and analysis to you, the reader. Executive Magazine does not endorse the analysis of Insight authors, nor should the Insights be interpreted as reflecting the views or opinions of Executive or its editorial staff.

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Executive Insights

Market matrimony

by Dima Itani & Ramsay G. Najjar
written by Dima Itani & Ramsay G. Najjar

The wedding season has arrived this summer, which means not only fireworks, flowers, beautiful designer gowns, tuxedos and people spending half their salaries on wedding lists, but also pairs of souls bound for life, for better or for worse, for richer or for poorer, in sickness and in health.

For better or for worse is not always easy. Marriages that last a lifetime need an extra dose of planning, a sprinkle of good faith and a pinch of foresight. Just like human beings, corporate organizations make vows to their stakeholders and decide to engage in a long term union, expecting the beautiful and glowing life “à deux,” only to realize it takes more than love to make a marriage successful.

When people are engaged they are eager to show their finest and most admirable qualities and behavior. They are enthusiastic to confirm to their soul mate that they have all the outstanding qualities and the most favorable persona. They are both excited to discover their shared values and beliefs. In fact, they are building their image as the best future husband and wife. They are striving to capture the other person’s heart in a way that ensures they could never think of marrying someone else.

This period of courtship is similar to when a company first enters into a new venture, whether establishing itself on the market or launching new products and services. During this crucial period, the company’s main objective is to build a particular brand image that would ultimately attract its targeted stakeholders. These can include employees, customers, suppliers, investors and the general public. Employees, for example, will only join a company if they can identify themselves with its image. This brand image is the most important asset for the company as it establishes its personality and differentiates it from the competition. A meticulous branding strategy driven by the company’s aspired image should therefore be developed at the first stage of a new venture, serving as the basis of future relationships with different stakeholders.

‘Getting to know each other’ soon leads to popping the question and a marriage proposal to the woman, or more commonly today, the man of one’s dreams. Similarly, a company backed with a meticulous brand image “proposes” to its stakeholders by asking them to invest, be employed, become clients or join the company. For this “engagement” to take place, the man and woman, or in another case, the company and its stakeholders, should share the same values. This is absolutely crucial before plunging into marriage or partnership. Values are what make up the core of a person or an organization. These are the beliefs, principles and standards which they abide by in each and every aspect of life or business.

Having established a set of values and gotten engaged, it is now time to talk about marriage. A couple should at this stage discuss and plan their future together. Two independent human beings are about to take a step forward and make vows to be together for the rest of their lives. These two people in love should now project a vision of their life together. Just like that, a company plans a union with its stakeholders. At this stage, a couple should discuss the potential of raising a family together. Similarly, a company should project how it will stand in the next five years or so, clearly defining its vision and objectives, and then communicating these to its stakeholders. All actions and initiatives that follow should be aligned in order to ensure that the mission is being applied and the vision reached.

When the big day comes, two people become bound for life. After the rosy pre-wedding period and the beautiful reception, real life, with all its ups and downs, begins. No matter how strong love is, a marriage cannot survive or succeed without transparency, a vertebra in the backbone of marriage which keeps a couple together. It is essential to remain transparent about all emotional issues, financial matters and future plans, whether communicating with one’s partner or stakeholders. A company, like a husband or wife, must provide timely and accurate information to its stakeholders and communicate as frequently as possible through two-way communication mechanisms. Open communication is the key to avoiding potential negative attacks and ascertains the company’s credibility.

Another vertebra is consistency in image and substance. One day of “I Love You’s” followed by another day of the cold shoulder makes a marriage rocky. A couple should maintain a level of consistency in the way they deal with and react to each other. Following the same logic, a company committed to its stakeholders should abide by a high level of consistency and avoid any kind of schizophrenia in its image and business conduct. As such, the company should adopt a clear communication strategy which ensures alignment and consistency across all messages.

However, consistency does not necessarily suggest routine and predictable behavior. Communication between a husband and his wife can be translated into various gestures of appreciation. Some of these gestures can cost a foot, arm and a leg while others can be extremely easy on the pocket. One husband can express his love to his wife by buying expensive jewelry; another can opt for the low-cost option and leave small post-its all over the house or write cute notes on the bathroom mirror.

There are innumerable channels that can convey a person’s or a company’s message to a specific audience. These channels can range in price, but the key is to achieve cost efficiency by using the best channel for the particular message. For example, instead of launching an expensive advertising campaign, a company might only need targeted ongoing initiatives like viral videos, round-table meetings, editorials and articles. Diversification in communication helps avoid routine and preserves the impact of a communication message.

On the other hand, no matter how diversified the communication between a couple, all marriages are exposed to crises. These crises can emerge when many small issues remain unresolved and the smallest argument, regardless of its importance, becomes the straw that breaks a camel’s back. A person can avoid these crises by solving all issues before they accumulate and by knowing what irritates their spouse.

Crises in the corporate world can emerge in the same way as in marriage, and can also be avoided by the same crisis management logic. Just like in marriages, crises that are not resolved in the corporate world can lead to a “divorce” and can have damaging repercussions on the company’s image, reputation and financial equity. Establishing an effective crisis management mechanism, just like going through marriage guidance counseling, can address and mitigate crises through effective communication messages and initiatives. Moreover, these crises can be avoided altogether through preemptive measures that primordially consist of a solid communication strategy that can provide a company’s image with a shield of immunity against any potential negativity. Additionally, in the unforeseen and much unwanted event of a “divorce,” a good communication strategy would spare the two parties deep or irrevocable injury, whereby they decide to separate but still remain on good terms.

As psychologist Michael Cavanagh once said, communication in a love relationship is like an intravenous feeding tube that is attached to each partner. The relationship flourishes when nutrients flow through the tube; it turns toxic when poison is fed through it, and becomes anemic when little or nothing flows through it. Similarly, the amorous relationship between a corporate organization and its stakeholders requires just the right amount of “nutritious” communication in order for it to thrive happily ever after.

Dima Itani & Ramsay G. Najjar
S2C

The authors of Executive Insights have been invited by this magazine to offer their professional opinions and analysis to you, the reader. Executive Magazine does not endorse the analysis of Insight authors, nor should the Insights be interpreted as reflecting the views or opinions of Executive or its editorial staff.

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Executive Insights

How to lead the ‘King of Pop’

by Tommy Weir
written by Tommy Weir

This past month, as the world mourned Michael Jackson’s untimely death, we remembered the great times he gave us over the years and the impact he had on us. Jacko, King of Pop, MJ — no matter what name you call him by, Michael will be a part of our memories and his music will continue to brighten our days when we hear it. We will cherish our memories of trying to moonwalk; of mimicking him by wearing a single glove or white socks; or of attempting to imitate the Thriller dance. Michael helped to shape generations all around the world.

As I watched the news and relived younger days through the music videos, or short-films as Michael called them, a question popped into my mind: “What can we learn about leadership from Michael Jackson?”

We can look through the lyrics of his songs to see if any give us leadership insights, which they do. But there is a much more important lesson we can learn from the King of Pop.

The first lesson can be found by asking, “How would you have gone about managing Michael Jackson?” How well do you think you would have done? To determine this, let’s consider the facts about Michael Jackson. As you read them try to not to reminisce, rather think about what you would have done and how you would have reacted if you were leading him.

The facts

• By the 1980s he had become infinitely more popular than his brotherly group, The Jackson 5.

• Michael holds the record for the most Grammys won in one year: he won eight in 1984.

• He popularized the “moonwalk” and created a dance movement.

• He has sold hundreds of million albums worldwide.

• He dated Brooke Shields and married Lisa Marie Presley.

• He was the first solo artist to generate four top ten hits on the Billboard charts off of one album, “Off the Wall.”

• He was the first artist to generate seven top 10 hits (US) on one album, “Thriller.”

• He was the only artist in history to generate five “#1 hits” (US) from one album, “Bad.”

• “Thriller” is the best-selling album of all time: in excess of 100 million copies sold worldwide.

• “Dangerous” is Michael’s second best-selling album of all time, with more than 30 million copies sold worldwide.

• “Bad” is Michael’s third most successful album, with 30 million copies sold worldwide.

To summarize, MJ was a musical prodigy who was born to be a solo success. At a young age, his singing and dancing talents were amazingly mature and he soon became the dominant figure of an entire industry, entertaining audiences for nearly his whole life. He was one of a kind, a real superstar.

The reactions

So, what would you do if you had to manage Michael Jackson? After working with over 700 chief executive officers in the Middle East (2,000 worldwide), let me share an insight into what most leaders would do.

Most leaders would
• Try to make him normal: Leaders habitually fail when it comes to making a superstar.

• Get jealous: Leaders do not like to share the stage nor do they do well with followers who are more popular than they are.

• Try to make him a team player: Leaders focus on group performance rather than maximizing solo success, which in the case of Michael was inevitable.

• Avoid controversy: Leaders do not like controversy or bizarre behavior, which makes him a consistent target for scandal-making and criticism. Jackson frequently drew controversy.

When it comes to managing a superstar like Michael Jackson, most leaders think it would be awesome, but in reality they would try to change the superstar, get jealous, not trust him, try to make him normal and ultimately try to get rid of or destroy him.

What leaders should do?

When someone has unmatched talent like Michael, a leader needs to discover how to use it for the whole organization to win. This means they cannot fall into the trap of jealousy. The leader has to accept the eccentric behavior, as this craziness is what allows the superstar to do things that others don’t even dream of (the source of their stardom). It also means that the leader will most likely be overshadowed and, if not, will need to step out of the spotlight. But in the end, there will be success.

By not managing a “Michael Jackson” type properly, a leader will lose record sales and maybe even screw up the biggest-selling album of all time, “Thriller.” Remember, people who are destined for greatness will make it with or without you.

So are you ready to manage Michael Jackson?

Tommy Weir is managing director of leadership solutions at Kenexa
 

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Comment

The bubble’s jagged edge

by Paul Cochrane
written by Paul Cochrane

Reporters have to watch where they point their cameras as the UAE cracks down on media

For business journalists, writing about the Gulf from 2004 to 2008 was often a repetitive process. Regardless of the sector being covered, the opening paragraph would invariably have a growth figure in the double digits, and the projection for the next year would also be a very healthy one. Every year was a record year, or so it seemed.

The global financial crisis in the autumn of 2008 dimmed the Gulf Cooperation Council’s business fortunes, flipping that opening paragraph to negative double digits or growth in the low single digits, depending on the sector. This change was welcomed by many business journalists, if only to spice up their writing, but of course not by the business community.

The reasons behind strong growth can be easily explained, but a downturn and a serious contraction in revenues requires a different explanation, and it was time for journalists to start asking hard questions — at least it should have been time to play hardball.

However, just as the crisis was beginning to bite, the government of the United Arab Emirates introduced a draft media law in January to update the archaic 1980 law. Media outlets quickly understood the ramifications of the proposed rules, which include article 32, whereby journalists can be fined up to $1.3 million for “disparaging” government officials, members of the royal family or Islam, and article 33, which fines journalists up to $136,000 for harming the nation’s image and reporting “misleading” information on the economy.

Given such fines, way beyond the financial means of most journalists and media outlets, how could hacks ask hard questions? And how could journalists report on companies and firms that were in trouble but directly linked to royal families? It is a clear Catch-22 situation: journalists want to do their job, and the public and investors have the right to know about financial shenanigans, but to do so could come with a hefty price tag, and if you can’t cough it up, it’s a stint behind bars in the debtors’ jail.

The whole notion of transparency became a mockery, and the depth of the financial crisis’ impact was barely debated in the media, at least not in the UAE and the other GCC countries, where media laws are similarly draconian.

How ingrained such self-censorship is among Gulf journalists was evident in the headlines and articles in the aftermath of the bomb Dubai World dropped on global markets by announcing a standstill in billions of dollars of debt repayments. The Gulf News gushed across its front page: “Government intervention to ensure commercial success,” the Abu Dhabi-owned The National downplayed the impact with the headline: “A silver lining in Dubai World,” and the Khaleej Times espoused optimism with: “Restructuring ‘A Sensible Business Decision.’” Elsewhere, papers’ headlines were of “castles in the sand,” “Dubai in turmoil,” and “Bombshell decision has severely damaged Dubai’s reputation.”

But while papers outside the region can tell it as it is, reporting on what has already been reported can even be a risky business in the rest of the Middle East.

In one case, a UAE-based journalist wrote an article on the new media law for the American University of Cairo’s (AUC) Arab Media & Society (AMS) website. In it, she referred to a case in May where British daily The Independent ran a story about a case of fraud in which a Dubai developer showed investors photographs of buildings under construction, but were in fact photos of another project. The investors demanded a refund, but until now they have not been reimbursed.

The developer is the Al Fajer Group, run by Sheikh Maktoum bin Hasher Al Maktoum, who is the nephew of Dubai’s ruler. For citing — not breaking — this story, the Maktoum’s threatened to sue AUC.

What this case highlights is the lengths to which the UAE will go to try and rein in negative media coverage. Furthermore, the case has warded off necessary reporting on dubious tactics by developers, which damage the reputation of the real estate sector at the very time when the sector is suffering, with real estate prices down 50 percent in Dubai from their 2008 peak, and investment bank Union de Banques Suisses projecting in November that it could take up to 10 years for the sector to bounce back.

The last thing the sector should want in such a tenuous climate is jittery investors. As an Al Fajer investor told The Independent, “This is going to define my faith in the country. If I’m dealt with correctly, great. But at the moment, it’s not going that way. We’re in the witching hour now.”

That witching hour extends to media coverage, transparency in economic data and whether firms connected to the royal family are being unfairly assisted and bailed out at the expense of ‘ordinary’ companies trying to compete in a supposedly free market. As for us business journalists, reporting on the Gulf is certainly keeping us on our toes as we cover, or indeed cover up, the Gulf’s (mis)fortunes, and try to avoid getting fined a lifetime’s salary in the process.

PAUL COCHRANE is the Middle East correspondent for the International News Service

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Lebanon

Architecture – Lest we forget

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

On the corner of Beirut’s Sodeco crossing stands one of the city’s most emblematic buildings, one that epitomizes both the city’s history and the ravages of the Lebanese Civil War.

The Barakat building is one of the last standing war-torn structures around the center of Beirut, a symbol of the city’s progress and architectural heritage. The building’s construction began in 1924 under the watchful eye of Youssef Aftimos, one of Lebanon’s most famous architects, who also designed Beirut’s municipal building. The first two stories of the four-story building were built out of stone because concrete had yet to be widely used in construction. By 1932, concrete was all the rage, and two more floors were built, making the building one of the first, and last, remaining structures in the city built in this fashion.

Barakat is actually two buildings conjoined together, with much of the space between them consisting of a wide void that gives almost every room a view onto the street — including the rear rooms. This architectural peculiarity gained the building much acclaim as a piece of avante-garde architecture, blending Art Deco and Ottoman styles. But because the building commanded a strategic position on one of the major fault lines of the Lebanese Civil War, the Green Line, it became a premier fighting position in 1975. Christian militiamen built reinforced sniper positions in the rear of the house, away from the windows, and the building’s architecture gave them a near 180 degree view of Sodeco square and beyond. Sitting in their concrete and sandbagged sniper nests, militiamen had a line of fire to  Basta, Ras al-Nabaa, the French Embassy on Damascus road, and nearly to the Hippodrome and the Beirut Museum of Antiquities.

Saving the past
After the civil war ended, the building’s owners, the Barakat family, decided to tear it down in order to sell the land that by then had become prime real estate. In 1997, as the building was being demolished to make room for a new real estate project, one activist decided to try to save the building.

“By a stroke of luck I saw it,” says Mona Hallak, an architect and preservation activist who spearheaded the campaign to save the Barakat building. “After five days of a heavy press campaign, it made such a fuss that the minister of culture became embarrassed and suspended [the destruction] verbally.”

The verbal suspension took a total of nine years to materialize into an official government decree to renovate the Barakat building to house the “Museum of Memory.” The building was purchased by the Beirut municipality for some $3 million from the Barakat family.
Since then the building has stood idle and may well have remained as such if it were not for Lebanon’s former colonial rulers.

“The French are agreeing with us preservation activists and pushing this project along,” says Hallak, who is also on the scientific committee that is coordinating between the various stakeholders of the project. The municipality of Paris has assigned a delegation comprised of a restorer, an architect and a museum curator to provide “technical assistance” to the Beirut municipality.

The delegation was scheduled to make its first trip to Lebanon in 2006 but had to cancel that, and several subsequent visits, because of  armed conflict and political turmoil in the country. They finally made it in November 2008, helping Beirut municipality to choose an architect to devise a program for the project.

“We pushed for an architectural competition [but] we didn’t get it,” says Hallak. “[The Beirut municipality] listed an architect and it’s now in the process of being approved.”
The French embassy in Beirut was not available to comment on the issue.

So far, it’s not clear what “memories” the Museum of Memory will house. Some want the bullet-riddled building to be cleaned up and restored, like in Beirut’s central district, and the museum to focus on the capital’s ancient history. Other say the building should be left as it is, with bullet holes and blown out walls incorporated into a museum that would document the history of the civil war.

Without a solid program and vision in place, the museum’s content cannot be finalized because restoration efforts will need to take the contextual elements on display into consideration. Nonetheless, the municipality insists that things are on the right track.

 Ralph Eid, head of the committee at the municipality that is overseeing the project, says an architect has not been announced due to an “administrative procedure” and the announcement should be made “in about a month.” According to Eid, the project, which he estimated to cost around $6 million, was open to public submission to which “only six people submitted proposals.”

Today the building is wrapped in a massive plastic banner that serves as advertising space to promote everything from instant coffee to the ruling March 14 coalition’s recent election victory. Eid says the decision to post ads was made in order to “save money” through a deal with an advertising firm — he declined to name the company — whereby they would erect the scaffolding in exchange for “25 to 35 percent of the space to be used for advertising.” He says the advertising will be removed soon.

When reconstruction comes
As for the actual construction of the project, Eid believes that the first cornerstone could be laid in six months and it would be “fair to say” that the project will be completed by 2012. But this may be “too optimistic,” says Hallak. Supposing the architect that has been chosen is commissioned and comes up with a program that satisfies all the stakeholders, the contracts must then be put out to tender and only when a contractor has been chosen can work begin. Moreover, the clock is ticking: any government decree that is not implemented within eight years of it being issued can be overturned, meaning the original owners can lobby to get it back, still a real possibility given the project is expected to be completed one year after the eight year grace period.

It seems that the constant delays are once again threatening the project’s implementation. Hallak says without a place to recall the horrors of the civil war, the Lebanese risk returning to the bloodletting of darker days.

“This city has not attempted on a public level to deal with the issue or do any kind of reconciliation,” says Hallak. “This building will initiate a process that, if not initiated, means my sons or your sons will fall back into war. If you don’t deal with it, it is going to come back.”

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Finance

Bank BEMO – Samih Saadeh (Q&A)

by Soraya Darghous
written by Soraya Darghous

Samih Saadeh is general manager of Lebanon’s 18th largest bank, Banque BEMO, and has been with the bank since 2003. He started working in the banking industry in 1978 and has been a senior executive at American Express Bank-Beirut, Bank of Beirut and ABN AMRO Bank.
Bank BEMO has total assets of $1.05 billion, and if the bank’s Syrian affiliate is included, some $3 billion. In the first half of 2009, the bank’s total assets grew by 15.6 percent.  Executive sat down with Saadeh to talk about his bank’s success and gain insight into the role smaller banks play in Lebanon today.

Samih Saadeh

E As a medium sized “beta” bank, how does your strategy differ from an alpha bank? What are the top priorities on your agenda?

This is a board decision, it’s the oversight of the bank. We compare our private banking to Bank Audi Saradar sometimes, yes, [but] on a smaller case though, because they have larger capital and client base. Certainly when you have a universal bank you have a larger client base, which allows you to make more money and to be more exposed.

What we’re trying to do on a smaller scale is have a boutique bank, instead of having a universal bank. I respect everybody’s strategy, I probably agree with other’s strategy sometimes — because it’s faster to make money and grow — and you come to BEMO and you see it’s very little and a bit slower.

If you want to be a private bank in this country, you really have to have political stability. If people want to believe in putting money with you, you don’t have to rely on the locals. I hope one day the political stability arrives, but this is one of the missing links in the chain to complete the services of Lebanon as a financial center. All of the potential that Lebanon has is not prospering because of the political instability. People want to trust this bank in 10 or 20 years, and this is what we are betting on. We want to build this; we want to complete this closed chain in Lebanon.

E Now, how to survive? Bank Audi, for example, has built a lot of things around their vision and one of them is private banking.
Corporate banking and retail banking need a lot of capital. You need to either open capital or get other investors. Private banking, in reality, doesn’t need a lot of capital. It needs a lot of know-how, conservatism and trust.

E What kind of customers do you cater to?
We as BEMO have a different strategy than Lebanese banks. We don’t want to play volume. We would like to grow, certainly, but if you want to grow you have to have large capital and to possibly go into retail banking. You also have to have a strategic vision for the bank, which allows you to be like any other bank. In Beirut, we’re very specialized. Our motto is ‘corporate and private banking.’ We don’t do retail banking — we do to an extent though.

Recently we started to buy some Lebanese government sovereign paper. If you want to collect deposits and you don’t put it in a sovereign bank, you have to lend it. You are bound by ratios as well, on how much you lend. There is a limitation to how large we can grow in volume. So we always look at how much we can grow in fee income, not how much we can grow in volume. Even if I get a large deposit today, I lose a lot of money. Either you put it in the government, outside, or with the central bank. Even if the central bank pays for you half a point — you lose a lot of money.

Originally Lebanese banks collected deposits — they lent around 50 percent and placed with the government and the central bank up to 55 percent. We, on the contrary, have 25 percent with the central bank, and with the government we have 3 percent to 5 percent, not more. This is why growth is a limitation to us. If you compare us to the rest, we are a beta bank in volume, but our strategy forbids us from being an alpha bank, even if we wanted to.

E How has the bank’s strategy changed since the global financial crisis struck and now after?
Banque BEMO has always had the strategy to grow to be a private bank whereby we would be acting as a financial advisor for every high net worth individual throughout their life — no matter what stage they are in. If you want to act as a financial advisor, you need to build the reputation. Building this reputation takes decades actually. We’re building on the heritage the Obegi family has, for the last 50 years. Now we have another decade to work on, to earn this trust from the people. Also, we use a business model of relationships. That means every client has his own financial advisor or relationship manager.

When the financial crisis came — and this is an approach to private banking — people stopped dealing and we make a lot of money on people making deals. So part of our income was hurt… Now, it’s catching up, thank God, the trust is starting to be rebuilt. People are getting into the market.

On the corporate side, we didn’t suffer at all. We had a certain amount of money lent, and we had lent it. In percentage, we are the highest lent bank to corporates in the country. We are lending around 45 percent of our total assets to corporates. We don’t go into the government too much.

Private banking income was a little bit on a standstill. We hope that it will catch up again.
We didn’t change our strategy, it stayed the same… we just weren’t aggressive in pursuing it in the last year. But the board decided that strategically this is what they want. They want to stay as a private, corporate bank.

E Since the financial crisis, how has your advice to your clients changed? What are the most common investments you tell them to make?
Frankly it’s not easy to let them come back. Everybody lost, depending on the extent of the loss — nobody can claim they didn’t lose… If they bought their portfolios five, 10 years ago or two years ago they probably didn’t lose — the starting point is most important [factor]. We are inviting them to come back because the markets are starting to pick up, there’s a lot of opportunity. But, be prudent at least. You have the safe investments, if you go into medical and commodities. There are aggressive and risky investments like financials. Depends on your profile. We always split our client base into categories.

E Recently, the International Monetary Fund said Lebanon’s economy could grow much faster than their previous projection of 4 percent. But, the IMF emphasized that the top priority for Lebanese banks should be dealing with the public debt. What is your take on this?
This is quite a thorny issue. Who is right? Imagine if the banks didn’t give money; what would have happened? Also, imagine that we didn’t have this flagship of the economy — the banking sector — nobody would have heard of it. The economy is built on the financial sector.

Certainly, the financial sector is benefitting from lending to the government, but it’s also to the benefit of all stakeholders. We were saved from the financial crisis because our debt was local. Lebanese banks cannot stop financing the government; it’s in their interest now.
For me, the public debt is the least thing we should worry about. If we spent the same time talking about the debt on increasing productivity, the GDP of the country would soar.

Recently, Lebanon’s GDP increased to $33 billion; it could be $50 billion! This year we have a growth of 6 percent, when everyone else around the world is suffering negative growth. Imagine if there was political stability; the growth could be far higher.
Debt is not a problem as long as you generate productivity!

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Lebanon

Forestry – Firefighting reinforcements

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

The first week of July saw an unprecedented number of wild fires rage across the country: 185 in three days. The Lebanese authorities struggled to contain the unexpected fires; the three firefighting Sirkosky helicopters, acquired this year, still weren’t ready to be used so early in the dry summer season.

From Beirut, smoke from two fires could be seen billowing off the Chouf and Metn, leaving black scars in its wake. From Zgharta to Tebnin, the fires burnt fruit groves, olive trees, grassland and pine forest. The damage costs farmers and others millions of dollars per year — up to $10 million to replant 2,000 hectares of land. The fires are suspected of being started by farmers, charcoal collectors, trash burners or campers, despite a law that comes into effect every summer banning fires in rural areas.

It was the same in 2007, when fires destroyed 4,031 hectares of forest and agricultural land, or more than triple the annual average of 1,200 hectares. To the Lebanese government, this number symbolized far more than just the immense physical and fiscal damage that the fires caused. This time, change needed to happen.

“The fires of 2007 following the damages caused by the summer war of 2006 brought to light not only to the Lebanese citizens, but also to the government, the rapid decrease of forestry in Lebanon,” said Dr. George Mitri, research and development program coordinator at the Association for Forests, Development and Conservation (AFDC), a Lebanon-based non-governmental organization collaborating with the government to find a more effective long-term solution to Lebanon’s forest fire problem.

“In 1965, the percentage of forestry in Lebanon, and we’re talking about mostly pine trees, was at 35 percent of the country. Today, 34 years later, it’s at only 13 percent,” continued Mitri. According to an AFDC report, 5.6 percent of Lebanon is at high risk of fires and 25 percent at medium to high risk.

When forests are lost, ecosystems are destroyed. Certain species of plants, animals and different kinds of wildlife continue to be classified as endangered in Lebanon. Forests act as somewhat of a ‘filter’ for air. With less forests, the effects of pollution are more severe. Additionally, forests serve economic benefits, with the average hectare of forest in Lebanon generating gross benefits of $381 per year according to the AFDC. This figure rises when fruit trees are included. For instance, one hectare of oilve trees generates an estimated $13,300, according to the World Bank. Overall, the total gross losses of the October to November 2007 fires were estimated at $31.1 million.

So when the smoke cleared, plans were put in place to develop a new strategy to better manage and combat forest fires in Lebanon. ‘Lebanon’s National Strategy for Forest Fire Management’ was introduced this spring as the new official tool to combat forest fires in the future. The most important aspect of the strategy, according to Mitri, was that it signified the first time the Ministries of Interior, Environment and Agriculture were to collaborate jointly, alongside the Civil Defense and a number of local and international NGOs.

The working plan
Lara Samaha, head of the Department of Ecosystems at the Ministry of Environment, believes that the strategy is a positive first step and can succeed in effectively bringing down the annual damage caused by fires in the long term.

She says the strategy specifies what needs to be done to combat forest fires in Lebanon, as well as “determines for each national action, on all levels, the concerned and appropriate administration for its implementation.”

The strategy emphasizes the three important steps of forest fire management: prevention, combating the fires, and restoration and rehabilitation of the land. Within the strategy are the detailed responsibilities of each ministry, and the best method for each to execute its role.

The hurdles that the new strategy must overcome, however, remain immense. The Lebanese climate is often compared to that of California, where pine tree forest fires prove to be a consistent and difficult problem. In California, the average loss of forest has been 105,000 hectares per year over the last five years.

“When the committee was put together to come up with the new national strategy, we went to California to speak to experts in the field, knowing that we were going to need to learn more,” said Samaha.

Year after year
Thousands of fires threaten Lebanon’s forests every year, and the Civil Defense’s fire fighters — up to 4,000 of them unpaid volunteers — struggle to contain the destruction  during the dry summer months, between late May through September. Among the most difficult factors in combating forest fires is their unpredictability once the flames are out of control.

“Some of the factors contributing to spreading forest fires are wind speeds and distances from the nearest Civil Defense stations,” explained Mitri. “As long as the Civil Defense can make it to the area of the fire within the first 20 minutes, they can probably contain it before it grows.”

George Abi Musa, the head of operations at the Department of Civil Defense, agreed that getting to the fire early is key to properly managing and combating it, but adds that this is often difficult.

“When you have 15 or 20 fires which are burning at the same time, it’s nearly impossible to get to all of them in proper time,” explained Abi Musa. “In late June, did you know that there were 683 fires in a span of five days, with 45 of them coming in a two-hour span?”

Abi Musa believes that the Civil Defense has one of the largest, if not the largest role to play in managing forest fires in Lebanon, and is excited about the three new Sirkosky helicopters purchased by the Ministry of Interior to be used by the Civil Defense. The helicopters, which can carry up to 3,500 liters of water per trip, are estimated to have cost a total of $13 million, according to The Daily Star, and are the first such helicopters to be owned and used by Lebanon.

“I’ve been with the Civil Defense for 25 years now, and up until this point, owning such helicopters was just a dream,” said Abi Musa. “Now we can reach the fires which were previously nearly impossible to reach.”

Armed with the new strategy, confidence within the Lebanese government is high in regards to managing forest fires, but Mitri, Samaha, and Abi Musa all insist that none of what is to be accomplished can be done without the help of every Lebanese citizen in aiding the government to protect the forests of Lebanon.

“When you have a single fire, then that could have been started by natural causes. But when you have 50 or 60, it means that these are started by people, whether harm is intended or not,” said Abi Musa.
All three spoke of the need for citizens to contact the Civil Defense in cases where they see a fire, or anyone about to start one.

Additionally, finances are an important part of any effective fire-management system, with some $1.4 million spent firefighting in 2007. Replanting is a further cost, estimated at $6,300 per hectare. Sufficient funds are a luxury the Lebanese Civil Defense does not have. Support has trickled in more consistently since the fires of 2007, the year when the problem was recognized globally. Much of what can be accomplished with the new strategy will depend on the continued support of other countries, as well as local and international contributions.

Ultimately, time will tell whether or not Lebanon’s new national strategy will effectively counter the forest fire problem, but for once, there’s optimism in the government that they are one step closer to finally snuffing out the flames.

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GCC

Cityscape in Jeddah

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Saudi Arabia, the largest and the fastest growing real estate market in the Middle East, hosted the kingdom’s first ever “Cityscape Saudi Arabia” at the Jeddah Center for Forums and Events between the June 14 and 16. Although the event came amidst the most severe global recession in recent years, Cityscape was a success. More than 100 companies and organizations exhibited and there were an estimated 5,000 visitors.

“I didn’t expect such a big success in June,” said Ahmad Al Hatti, chairman of Cayan Investment and Development, the main developer of Jeddah’s $600 million Lamar Towers.

Exhibitors believe that the show was more a business-to-business event rather than a business-to-consumer event. The event allowed company representatives to meet with their existing contacts and establish new business partnerships. For example, Yasser Abu Ateek, general manager at Dar Al Tamleek, said one indication of the nature of the event was that there were no products for sale.

“There are no products, and when there are no products there is no retail,” he said.

Abu Ateek said he expected Cityscape to be bigger, but he still found it to be well organized and a big success considering it was the event’s first showing in the kingdom.

The Gulf’s powerhouse

The real estate market in Saudi Arabia is still growing fast, and continues to be ‘the Gulf’s Powerhouse,’ as stated in a 2008 report by global real estate services firm Jones Lang Lasalle. This growth is fueled by the increase in its population and the massive investments by government. According to a construction report released by market research firm Proleads, the number of real estate projects in the kingdom is 812 and are valued at $543 billion. A total of 460 projects valued at $289 billion are under construction, 30 projects are canceled (1 percent), 23 are on hold (3 percent), and the rest are in the design or planning process.

“In Saudi Arabia there is a slight slowdown in the real estate activity, but there are not fluctuations, at least not to the extent we are seeing in the United Arab Emirates,” said Al Hatti.

The real estate industry is expected to grow by around 6.7 percent over the next five years, according to a Saudi Chamber of Commerce 2008 report. Its share of gross domestic product is also expected to grow as the country continues to diversify its economy away from oil related activities — which account for some 35 to 40 percent of GDP.

Large developers absent

Despite the steady growth in Saudi’s real estate market, the global recession could be felt at Cityscape. Although more than 100 developers exhibited, some big names in the Saudi market were absent from the scene. Dar Al Arkan did not exhibit, neither did Arriyad Development company, Jabal Omar Development nor other important developers.

John Harris, head of KSA Jones Lang Lasalle, said that this first Cityscape was a trial for the Saudi market, and the developers were testing the waters to see if they should participate next year.

“Cityscape is relatively new [in Saudi Arabia] so there is a wait-and-see approach from the big players who were absent this year. They want to see and observe what could be achieved from Cityscape to decide if they are going to be in next year or not,” Harris said.

Amro Nahas, acting chief executive officer of Al Oula International, said starting slow is normal.

“I didn’t find any big names at Cityscape, but even in Dubai, it wasn’t better when they started,” Nahas said. “Yet people showed much interest for the first time and the footfall was quite respectable.”

Top 10 Saudi civil projects under construction or in design

Source: Proleads

Cityscape Awards

On June 14, Cityscape Saudi Arabia Real Estate awards were held and five prizes awarded to the most innovative and sustainable projects.

“Across all the awards..all we wanted [was] to recognize projects that had innovative and sustainable design, functionality with efficiency and we wanted to reward designs that showed cultural as well as environmental sustainability,” said Deep Marwaha, exhibition director at Cityscape Saudi Arabia, according to the exhibitor’s press release.

Emaar the Economic City seized two of these awards, the first being “Best Future Waterfront Development” for its project Waterfront Village at Baylasun. The second award for “Best Future Residential Development” was for the Hawadi project.

“Best Built Commercial / Retail Development” was awarded to Alandalus Property Company and Mohammed Ahabib Real Estate Company for their Al-Andalus Mall project.

The fourth award was for “Best future commercial / retail development” and was won by RA-YEK Real Estate for their project Al Ajlan Tower. The fifth and last award was for “Best Urban Design and Master Planning,” given to the developer Davis Brody Bond Aedas for the project The New Jeddah Master Plan.

Affordable housing needed

The issues Saudi real estate stakeholders stressed the most at Cityscape were the need for affordable housing and the new mortgage law in the kingdom. The Saudi population is expected to increase 32 percent and reach 33 million in the next 10 years, according to the Department of Economy. With no attention given by developers to the middle income segment — which constitutes the biggest chunk of the market — the housing shortage is increasing significantly.

According to the Saudi Arabia Investment Fund (SAIF), the housing sector accounts for more than 75 percent of the real estate activity in the kingdom, and 2.5 million housing units have to be delivered by 2020 to meet the demand. In value, SAIF says that $20 billion will be needed yearly to bridge the shortage gap.

“Saudi Arabia needs to consider the right balance between the development of high-end, medium and low-end,” said from Al Oula’s Nahas. “Municipalities have to play a role in planning and providing the right information for developers. Definitely the residential mid-market needs special attention.”

Currently, real estate developers are offering properties too expensive for the middle income segment. On the other hand, the low-income  market does not have that problem because it can benefit from government support through the Real Estate Development Fund, the King Abdullah Housing Program and other means.

“The government has to find a solution [for the middle income segment]” said Abu Ateek.

The awaited mortgage law

The lack of affordable housing is not the only reason Saudis cannot buy a home. The shortage is also caused by the absence of a mortgage law, which makes long-term loans very hard to obtain. Until now, buyers had to either pay cash for their homes or take personal short-term loans to be able to pay. Sky high property prices and the lack of a mortgage law helps contribute to the fact that 60 percent of Saudis still do not own a house, according to the National Society of Human Rights in Saudi Arabia.

The country expects to implement a mortgage law by the end of the year, much to the delight of developers, banks, buyers and real estate agents.

 “With the regulations, banks will be more comfortable in securing and guaranteeing financing for buyers,” said Al Hatti from Cayan Investment and Development.

The mortgage law is not the only initiative that the government has undertaken to protect the kingdom from the effect of the crisis. An Escrow law was also issued in February this year which prohibits the sale of off-plan properties without approval from the Real Estate Commission.

“The Escrow 2009 plan is not applied yet but it will guarantee for all parties, customers, financiers, developers and others a lot of work and that real estate will play a bigger role in the kingdom’s GDP,” Abou Ateek said.

“The good steps will pay back…and hopefully in the next six months we will see the fruits of all efforts made,” said Nahas.

Despite the crisis spreading its effect on the regional real estate market, Cityscape remains one of the most important property shows where real estate players gather and interact. And even though Cityscape in Saudi Arabia was not as vital as it possibly could have been, it is considered a good start, given the conditions.

“Taking the crisis into consideration, it was a fair turnout and a respectable success,” said Nahas.

Al Hatti added that “It feels like the end of the crisis and it is a positive feeling.”

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Levant

Stitching the economy

by Peter Grimsditch
written by Peter Grimsditch

Last month Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced economic stimulus measures designed to put the nation back to work and the economy on the path to recovery. Tax cuts, exemption from social security payments, relocation expenses and subsidies for intern on-the-job training were part of what Erdogan described as turning a “crisis into an opportunity.” On paper, the plan looks sound.

For investment purposes the country has been carved into four zones, from the least developed east to the most developed north-west. As an incentive for new investors to  set up shop in eastern Turkey, start-up businesses will see corporate tax rates cut from 20 percent to 2 percent, social security contributions exempted for seven years, and a subsidy of 5 percentage points on the interest rate for Turkish lira loans for business start-ups, to a maximum of TL500,000 ($325,000). Smaller versions of the same formula will apply to the other three regions.

Sweetening the pie

The textile industry, a chunk of which has been exported to Egypt, is among several areas singled out for special treatment. Any company owner willing to transfer their operations, lock, stock and barrel from either of the two richer zones to either of the two poorer zones will have the corporate tax rate slashed from 20 percent to 5 percent, all relocation expenses paid and be exempted from social security payments for five years.

There are, inevitably, some conditions. The move has to be made before the end of next year and the company has to employ at least 50 people. The name of Erdogan’s game here is to spread the productive economy more evenly around the country. With the state subsidies and lower salaries paid in eastern Turkey, overhead operating costs would be cheaper for those who take the plunge. What they also face in parts of the region is a transport infrastructure in need of a vast overhaul and a local labor pool drawn from the least educated slice of the Turkish population. In any case, no one has explained how creating jobs in one area by making people redundant in another can be counted as a net gain.

Indeed, the unemployment rate has reached a worrisome 15 percent. For that reason, the prime minister included in his announcement an employment package that will pay 200,000 people $9.70 a day to join on-the-job training program, while providing jobs for another 120,000 others in school and health center maintenance, tree planting, erosion control and caring for parks.

“The government is determined to turn around the economy whatever the costs,” Erdogan said.

Perhaps mindful of continuing talks with the International Monetary Fund on a new standby agreement and differences between the two sides on tax and spending policies, he added that none of the measures would involve the “slightest concession to fiscal discipline.”

The IMF appears unconvinced. Later in June, director of the IMF’s European Department, Marek Belka, said Turkey may need to cut its spending levels to achieve financial sustainability. Speaking in Washington, Belka was quoted by the Reuters news agency, saying, “No matter if there is an IMF program or no program, the Turks themselves have to make the necessary adjustments, fiscal cuts if necessary or longer-term reforms both on the expenditure and tax side, so that we can both agree that the fiscal situation is under control in the longer term.” The last agreement expired in May 2008.

Hope makes for happy markets

Belka’s remarks came the day after IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky held talks with Turkish authorities in Ankara. The agenda was ostensibly preparations for the annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF governors to be held in Turkey in October. Although there were no substantive talks on a new loan agreement, both the Istanbul Stock Exchange and the currency improved simply on the possibility of a deal.

The current talk in Ankara — that an agreement could be signed by August — is reminiscent of the political gossip put out every month since last October. This alternates with suggestions that the Turkish economy is sound enough to survive without an IMF loan anyway. Certainly, the Turkish government appears in no mood to don an IMF straitjacket and abandon its current policies.

Peter Grimsditch is Executive’s correspondent in Istanbul

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Levant

Water from a desert well

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Jordan is to construct a $1 billion pipeline to transport drinking water from the Disi valley in southern Jordan to thirsty Amman in the north. Most experts welcome the project, yet wonder what will happen to agriculture in Disi, which has depleted its aquifer by almost one third. And, even if agriculture is halted, will there be enough water to make the costly pipeline worthwhile?

First initiated in the late 1990s, the Disi Water Conveyance Project (DWCP) aims to supply Amman with 110 million cubic meters (MCM) of water annually. The project was long regarded as too costly, yet the Jordanian government in 2007 contracted Turkish construction firm GAMA to implement it. Construction will commence in early July 2009 and is due to be completed by 2013.

“The project costs close to $1 billion,” said DWCP manager Othman al-Kurdi at the Ministry of Water and Irrigation in Amman. “It includes drilling some 55 additional wells in the Disi area and the construction of a 325 kilometer long pipeline to Amman, as well as two pumping stations and water reservoirs near Amman.”

The project is funded by low interest loans from Europe and the United States, and some $300 million from the Jordan treasury. Upon completion of the DWCP infrastructure, GAMA is entitled to exploit the system by collecting water tax revenues for some 21 years, after which the government will take over.

“I can say with a high level of confidence that Disi will supply us with 110 MCM of water annually for some 50 years,” said Al-Kurdi. “If all circumstances work in our favor, it may even supply us with water for an additional 10 to 15 years.”

Asked what will happen to the use of Disi water for agriculture, he replied sharply: “No politics. I told you before: no politics. All I can say is that our priority is drinking water.”

Disi’s aquifer

On the main road through Disi, the significance of water in the desert valley becomes clear.  While land on one side of the road is blessed with melons, grapes, olive trees and cypresses, the other side is a barren sandy plain that seems to have fallen straight off the moon.

The striking difference between the two sides of the road is due to irrigation. In the 1960s, a fresh water aquifer with a depth of up to 1,000 meters was found in Disi. The  mixed layer of sand and water measures some 360 square kilometers and stretches well into Saudi Arabia. Since the 1980s, both Jordan and its bigger neighbor have increasingly used the water for agriculture.

“I’ve been growing olives, grapes and potatoes for about 30 years,” said Abu Mohamed, a wrinkled 50-something-year-old with hands the size of spades. “Our products are first sent to Amman and then to markets in Jordan and abroad, mainly Europe and Iraq.”

Not all agriculture is in the hands of local Bedouins. All along the road, signs indicate the presence of the “Rum Agricultural Company.” According to Abu Mohamed, Rum and other firms are owned by people from Amman and Aqaba. “They mainly grow fruits like apples and apricots further inside the valley,” he said.

Deeper inside the valley one also finds the hilltop palace owned by the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohamed bin Rashid al Maktoum, and his wife Princess Haya of Jordan. To liven up the view from the palace, Maktoum created an artificial lake in the valley below, which every winter attracts flocks of migratory birds. The Dubai billionaire has left his mark on Disi in more than one way, as he revived the ancient tradition of camel racing. Every Friday, animals, jockeys and spectators gather on a dirt track outside Disi village.

Next to the race track, surrounded by a layer of red mud, one of the valley’s 55 wells is under repair.

“There is a lot of sand in the water, which harms the pumping installation,” one worker explained, adding that he had heard about the upcoming pipeline to Amman. “We’ve seen the pipes along the road, but so far we have not been told anything.”

One of some 55 water pumping stations scattered around the Disi valley

In 1946, every Jordanian had access to some 3,600 cubic meters of drinking water per year. Today that amount has dropped to 160

More people with less to drink

Water is a scarce commodity in Jordan and, consequently, a highly political one. Not only is Jordan one of the world’s poorest countries in terms of water resources, it also has one of the world’s highest population growth rates. What’s more, throughout its history, the kingdom has had to absorb wave after wave of refugees. While in 1946 every Jordanian had access to some 3,600 cubic meters of water per year, today the water per capita ratio has decreased to a meager 160 cubic meters per year.

Due to the presence of illegal wells, exact figures are hard to come by. It is estimated however, that current demand is some 1,350 MCM per year, while annual water supply amounts to but 1,000 MCM per year. An estimated half of Jordan’s supply stems from groundwater extraction, which takes place at twice the rate of what is regarded as ecologically sustainable. At least 65 percent of Jordan’s water goes to agriculture, while the remainder is used for drinking water, industry and tourism.

“Disi water is good quality water from a non-renewable source and therefore should be used as wisely as possible,” said Elias Salameh, professor of hydrogeology and hydrochemistry at the University of Jordan, who has long been a vocal critic of agricultural practices in Disi and welcomes the pipeline to Amman.

“The wisest way is to first use it as drinking water and then collect and treat the wastewater to reuse it for agriculture and industry. Of every 100 MCM some 80 MCM can be used again.”

A quarter century drained away

According to Salameh, the past 25 years have been extremely wasteful. The Disi aquifer contains an estimated 7 billion cubic meters (BCM), up to a third of which has so far been used for agriculture. The problem with growing crops in Disi, where summer temperatures may soar well above 40 degrees, is that the evaporation rate in southern Jordan is twice as high as in north Jordan. In addition, most agricultural products are exported, which means Jordan is virtually exporting water. 

Currently, some 80 MCM of Disi water a year is used for agriculture, while some 16 MCM is used as drinking water in the rapidly growing city of Aqaba. The government has pledged to get rid of agriculture in Disi, yet that may be easier said than done. Certainly the local Bedouins will not want to give up their new-found agricultural wealth, for Disi does not exactly offer a wide range of alternative sources of income.

According to Salameh however, most agricultural production in Disi is in the hands of four agricultural firms owned by a group of very influential Jordanians, among them one of the richest businessmen in the kingdom and a former prime minister.

“Their agricultural licenses have a validity of 25 years and are set to expire in 2010 or 2011,” Salameh said. “Let’s see if the government will keep its promise.”

If it can keep its promise, Salameh said, the Disi project will help to temporarily fill the gap between water demand and supply, and relieve the immense pressure on Jordan’s northern aquifers, which all suffer from over-extraction. However, seeing that Jordan’s current population of some 6 million is set to double by 2025, the Disi pipeline is no long-term solution.

According to Salameh, there is only one long-term solution for Jordan: the Red Dead Canal. “A desalination plant combined with a canal from the Red to the Dead Sea is the only way to save the Dead Sea, and provide Jordan with drinking water.”

Mainly due to the overexploitation of the Jordan River by both Israel and Jordan, the Dead Sea evaporates quicker than it is replenished. As a consequence, the Dead Sea’s water line is receding by an average of one meter per year.

Although Salameh welcomes the construction of the pipeline, given that agriculture in the desert is halted, he still wonders if Jordan’s water and money could not have been spent in an even wiser way.

“I am no urban planner, but sometimes I ask myself: instead of bringing water to the people, why not bring the people to the water?” he said. “With the money spent on the pipeline, we could build a city and industrial zone near Disi and Aqaba, which would relieve the immense urban pressure on Amman.”

With Jordan’s population of 6 million set to double by 2025, the Disi pipeline is no long term solution

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