If the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were putting up candidates in this month’s municipal elections in Turkey, the best advice would be for them to withdraw before being trounced. On one side, the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is spending lavishly on certain local authorities while holding off on raising tax revenues. Those killjoys from the IMF have been campaigning for months for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to do exactly the opposite. If Turkey wants a new standby loan to see it through the tough times of 2009, say the men with built-in calculators, it needs to be less profligate.

A “deal” has been on the cards allegedly since last November and even in February Erdogan claimed the talks were progressing well despite a “last minute hitch” when the IMF was said to have injected some “unacceptable conditions.” A team from the Fund spent most of January in Turkey seeking to hammer out a deal before suspending the talks. Smart money (and certainly not the IMF’s) is going on a forecast that no agreement will be reached before the elections on March 29. A plummeting currency and rising unemployment are making life difficult for the Turks as it is, without the possibility of cutting public spending and improving tax collection.

The indication of economic performance afforded by early 2009 numbers make for grim reading. Officially the government’s policy is still to aim for four percent growth this year, a number it has been adhering to despite advice from the IMF and others that it was not only unattainable, but ruinous. In January, the budget deficit rose by 466 percent year-on-year to $1.65 billion, overall revenues limped up a mere 0.3 percent, tax revenues fell by 2.4 percent and spending shot up 15.3 percent. In face of the inevitable, some economists are now predicting that a two percent drop in GDP this year is far more likely than growth of any size.

Greasing democracy’s palm

While the IMF is talking of belt-tightening and even said to be suggesting a tax on pensions to help fund the social security system, AKP local authorities are distributing free food, washing up liquid and, reportedly, fridges and cookers, a tactic reminiscent of the Lebanese parliamentary elections of 2000.

In Ankara, the AKP-controlled metropolitan municipality awarded $64 million in local tenders in the first six weeks of 2009. The equivalent 2008 figure for the whole of January and February was $12 million. One tender this year for $26.6 million to buy washing up liquid, soap, detergent, beans, rice, jam, vegetable oil, pasta and cheese was won by Orpas Gida, with a note on the tender saying the products were to be delivered to locations specified by the head of the municipality’s social services department. In 2008 the exercise cost $1.4 million. The voters also know the temporary rules of the election game, with reports from throughout the country of the owners of illegally constructed buildings (of which there are many) using the campaign period to add another floor, reasoning that no local authority of sense would raise objections just ahead of polling day.

Meanwhile, more conventional ways of trying to stimulate the economy, which at any other time would have appeared sound suggestions, look increasingly hollow these days. New measures announced in February allow investors up to a 75 percent reduction in corporate tax for five years if they create at least 100 jobs and move textile plants to the eastern or south-eastern parts of the country before 2010. To help the car industry, the government is urging drivers to scrap their old vehicles to buy new ones. The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percent to try to encourage business to borrow and grow. In practice, one of few expansion areas is the number of unemployed, with a rise of more than two percentage points in the last quarter of 2008 to 12.3 percent.

All of this depressing statistical news makes the more lurid politics of the mayoral race in Kecioren almost a welcome diversion. The AKP incumbent Turgut Altmok has pulled out of the election after photos were handed to the party leadership of him and a woman with whom it was claimed he was having an affair. The real problem appears to have been less his alleged dalliance than the fact that he refused to accept influence from the mayor of the neighboring Ankara Municipality about who should be on the AKP ticket.

March is going to be an interesting month.

Peter Grimsditch is Executive’s Turkey correspondent

“Give me the money that has been spent in war and I will clothe every man, woman, and child in an attire of which kings and queens will be proud,” said 19th century US senator and anti-slave leader Charles Sumner in reference to the US Civil War. His words have lost no salience since. The war in Iraq, for instance, has cost US tax payers at least $3 trillion according to research conducted by the former chief economist at the World Bank, Joseph E. Stiglitz. That’s enough money to put a lot of shirts on a lot of backs.

In Lebanon, war has become somewhat of a national sport pitting the interests of regional and global players against each other in a seemingly endless saga of death and destruction. Indeed, the latest episode of Lebanon’s war saga that took place in 2006 between Israel and Hizbullah proved no different, leaving dead around 1,200 Lebanese dead — mostly civilians — and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers. Human suffering aside, Lebanon’s Council for Development and Reconstruction (CDR) estimated that the total material cost of the war stood at $3.6 billion.

Lebanon’s many needy

What was unique about the 2006 conflict, however, was the speed and magnitude of international humanitarian assistance in the form of funding that poured into Lebanon upon the cessation of hostilities.  A host of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have since moved in to provide the humanitarian relief and development assistance needed for the country to recover from the conflict. Furthermore, the Nahr el Bared conflict in 2007 between the Lebanese army and the Fatah al-Islam militant organization kept the focus on Lebanon in terms of funding for humanitarian assistance. The Italian Government alone has committed over $217 million towards emergency relief and infrastructure in Lebanon since the 2006 war.

Today, however, Lebanon enjoys relative political stability, with Merril Lynch estimating 2009 growth at 2.7 percent, while most of the countries that have pledged money towards humanitarian efforts in the country are contracting. “The global financial crisis has affected humanitarian work around the globe. Countries worldwide have to make reductions and external elements are an obvious selection,” says Christina Bennike, Lebanon country program manager at the Mines Advisory Group (MAG), a British mine clearance organization.

Additionally, the transient nature of humanitarian work entails a specific work model that comes in three stages: the emergency phase (during and directly after a conflict or natural disaster), the post-war construction and capacity building phase and, finally, the development phase characterized by long, drawn out funding cycles. This natural progression also brings with it funding constraints that complicate the budgets of humanitarian organizations operating in Lebanon.

“Funding for projects during the crisis period could typically be expedited in around three months as opposed to the time it takes today which can be up to a year,” says Wolfgang Hager, EU senior policy adviser to the Lebanese Government. “Projects are now moving into more of a maintenance phase.”

As such, most revenue streams flowing into Lebanon for emergency and construction phases are expected to dry up by the end of this year. “The final phase of financing for our emergency program will [go from] 2009 until 2010 and I don’t think we continue with financing after that,” says Fabio Melloni, director of the Italian development cooperation office, the humanitarian and development arm of the Italian government.

“Usually when you have a crisis situation in any country you have a lot of international NGOs and donors that will come in and give a lot of money to handle emergency relief issues and then all of a sudden they leave,” adds Ghassan Makarem, editor and media coordinator at Lebanon Support, an organization that coordinates humanitarian efforts in Lebanon. “People already got their money for the first part of 2009. The problems will start when they apply for funding for 2010 or late 2009.”

Time to tighten the belt

As the cash flow of large donors becomes increasingly restricted, humanitarian relief organizations and some NGOs are feeling the crunch.

“This year we are getting half the budget we received last year, for projects of a similar nature [sic],” said a senior director of a European NGO, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Sarah Shouman, country director at Search for Common Ground, says “there is definitely going to be an effect on NGO funding and donors will be a lot more stringent on their regulations as to how they give out funding. Everyone is going to feel that and be taken aback.”

On some levels the lack of funding has already begun to materialize through the scaling down of projects essential to the well-being and development of the Lebanese population. Two of the seven international mine clearing organizations in the country have already shut down due to a lack of funding and it seems likely others will follow.

“Last year we had 22 [mine clearing] teams; at the beginning of this year we had 18 and now we are down to 15. We stand to loose more than half of our teams,” says Bennike. “The more we reduce teams the less likely there will be a handover of land, which is going to impede economic recovery, the construction of villages and homes as well as increase civilian casualties.”

As if that wasn’t enough, another natural element of the humanitarian sector is to move with the tide of wars and natural disasters. “Unfortunately, with the NGO game wherever the need is; you have to rush there,” says Shouman. Ergo, the recent Israeli onslaught on Gaza is expected to deplete the already skeletal coffers of large donors like the EU and the US. To some extent this transference of priorities has already begun to materialize. On February 18, the EU announced in a joint statement that it will grant the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) a further $51 million to meet humanitarian needs in the Gaza Strip.

Naturally, the combination of these factors has begun to affect Lebanon’s real economy as many people who were employed in these organizations are either on the verge of being unemployed or have already been handed a pink slip.

“The [number of] jobs will drop with the money,” explains Makarem. “There have been situations where all of a sudden you have all of the men in a village… unemployed.” Also complementary businesses stand to suffer once their cash cows leave Lebanon for greener pastures. “It’s over for the suppliers and some of them know it, but there is nothing they can do about it,” adds Makarem.

All in all, it looks like the party is over for the humanitarian sector in Lebanon. Most of what’s left to do inside the country will either be completed by the end of this year or pan out across several years and funding cycles before eventually being handed over to local partners and the Lebanese government. What remains to be seen is whether Lebanon’s government and civil society can shed their sectarian pretensions, step up to the plate and help themselves instead of having others do it for them.

Israel’s recent gaza onslaught is expected to deplete the coffers of donors like the U.S and E.U.

The global music industry is facing hard times. Over the last five years, sales of legal ‘hard copies’ (CDs, DVDs, cassettes and records) have declined sharply, due to the rise of MP3 and iTune formats, as well as Internet downloading. Some of these losses have been partially replaced by legal online sales — amounting to 15 percent of music sales worldwide by 2007, according to figures from the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI), but the industry has been slow to grapple with new technologies and the changing consumer mentality. Add to this volatile mix the global economic crisis and a severe credit crunch, and the emerging picture seems gloomy indeed. Yet artists, retailers and producers are not all that pessimistic.

Tony Sfeir is the founding manager of both the retail shop CD-Thèque and independent label Incognito Records. He sees himself as the classic ‘disquaire,’ offering a near-complete knowledge of his products to customers and making it a point to let them discover new music. Sfeir takes his business extremely seriously. In fact, he even closed down CD-Thèque’s second outlet in Hamra when another professional disquaire could not be found.

“You know you have found a real tradesman when people say they bought their music from Raymond, not from the CD-thèque,” says Sfeir, referring to one of his employees. The closure has cost the company part of its turnover, but Sfier believes it has generated credibility, saying “CD-thèque has loyal customers who returned to the original establishment in Ashrafiyeh.” He quotes the 2008 turnover of CD-thèque as around $700,000 — down from $800,000 in 2007 due to the shop closure — estimating this to be 20 percent of the legal sales market in Beirut. He has yet to see a drop in sales due to the financial crisis.

The franchise guys

Anthony Ziade, CEO of the Virgin Megastore franchise for Lebanon and KSA, is equally optimistic about customer loyalty, feeling that Virgin has no real competition in Lebanon on the level of the overall shopping experience on offer. The concept of Virgin Megastore is a combination of music, books, films, multimedia hardware, musical instruments and a cafe. “Music is the anchor of Virgin, it is the first thing you connect with our Megastores, so we will keep selling hard copies – even if they represent only a fraction of our sales volume now.” Music has dropped from over 50 percent of turnover back in 2001 to a mere 15 percent in 2008. This is a global evolution. At Virgin France, music represents only seven to eight percent of total sales volume today and even that figure continues to drop. Yet Ziade is not considering selling MP3’s in the Megastore or through its website.

“I don’t think the Middle Eastern public is ready for that yet, even in Lebanon,” he says. The crisis is not making itself felt in Virgin’s sales yet, Ziade claims. It has, however, manifested on the supplier side, where the retailer is experiencing some shrinkage in its sourcing, as some producers and distributors have gone out of business or face difficulties obtaining credit. Suppliers are also less eager to give credit, demanding upfront payments instead and following up payments very closely. Despite the difficulties, Virgin Megastore has now branched out to Saudi Arabia, where it has taken the retailer some time to get started. The concept of Virgin Megastore is a controversial one in KSA. “We faced many hurdles from the side of the government, what with censorship and related issues, but we are now proud to present a respectable range of CDs, DVDs and books — albeit more limited than in Beirut of course,” says Ziade.

Hady Hajjar, marketing manager of the recording label Rotana Music, doesn’t see the global crisis as a major threat either. “We are not just selling ordinary products. Music is a universal language and people will always need music in one way or another. We have 120 stars in our portfolio, including all the big names in the Middle East.” Hajjar therefore doesn’t see the financial crisis as a major threat, although he admits Rotana has been affected by the global drop in music sales. To counter these losses, the Rotana empire, as Hajjar likes to call it, has been branching out to include management and event organization, as well as a digital department for the sale of ringtones and digital online formats. In 2008, the company signed contracts with Zain and Mediaphone to cover the region. Additionally, it has started licensing out its music to companies around the world in an effort to reach Arab households worldwide, and acquiring licensing contracts from Sony, Universal, Fox and Disney to distribute their music and films through its own distribution network in the region.

New scenes

Although Rotana is an established authority on the Arabic music scene, the company is always on the lookout for new talent, trying to keep its finger on the pulse of the ever-changing tastes of the young. Amanda Hartford manages Rotana Musiqa, one of Rotana’s multiple satellite channels, which features a show closely tracking hip-hop, techno and alternative music in the region. She is fascinated by what’s brewing now in terms of new developments. “Compared to only three years ago, young musicians — whether rappers, DJ’s or rockers — are becoming very professional. Scenes are rapidly evolving, especially in Lebanon, but also the clubbing scene in Egypt and hip-hop in Saudi Arabia, to name just a few.” Rotana has been sponsoring events like the Sound Bomb hip-hop festival in Beirut last fall and while these artists do not fit into any of the company’s formats at the moment, Hartford sees it eventually reaching the point where sub-labels will be set up for the different genres.

Yet questions are cropping up about how open the industry is to newcomers. Rima Khcheich is an up and coming Lebanese singer, who combines her classical tarab training with jazz influences. She has released three albums with the Dutch Yuri Honing Trio. She claims the situation for Arabic music in general today is bad, complaining that only commercial music has a chance to reach the audience, while artists who are working to develop their own voice do not get a lot of chances to produce their music, let alone to get it distributed.

“I produced my own first CD, so production is possible if you are determined, but distribution is another matter,” says Khcheich.

Sfeir feels the key is to create a separate or alternative scene. “With Incognito, we have started from the bottom up and I think that is the key to our success. We started with releasing budding musicians who gravitated around the CD-thèque,” he adds. The shop started publishing a magazine, organizing events and in that way eventually managed to create an interest in the music it wanted to release. The original Incognito label focused on rock and alternative music, such as Scrambled Eggs and Mazen Kerbaj. In 2006, the sub-label New Oriental Sounds was created, which releases classical Arabic music from across the region with a modern touch, in jazzy or experimental interpretations, or blended with a more Western-oriented sound.

This has proven quite popular, to the point where Incognito is now selling between 7,000 and 8,000 copies of its bestselling products. Together with their distribution of other labels, this has resulted in a turnover of $800,000 for 2008. “We are nowhere near the level of something like the Cuban scene yet, which is known and appreciated throughout the world, but we are trying to build a similar name for Beirut internationally,” he claims.

Piracy

Both independents and established companies agree that distribution is the biggest hurdle. In countries like Syria, Sfeir points out, there is hardly a distribution network for the simple reason that CD’s are downloaded and burned on demand in the retail shops — which brings us to the piracy issue.

The Middle East, as is well known, has a reputation for music and film piracy. Rotana’s Hadi Hajjar estimates illegal copying in Lebanon alone at 80 to 90 percent of the market. Ziade agrees, though he estimates that the effect on Virgin Megastore is not a sales issue, arguing that Virgin customers have a certain buying power and prefer the quality and extra features of the original. The issue, he says, is credibility.

“Customers ask us for season 17 of a series like ‘24,’ but we are still at season 12. We follow the official channels and we honor release schedules, whereas the pirated version is already on the market, of course,” said Ziade.

On the other hand, Ziade says he has seen a real effort from the Lebanese authorities in the last year and a half to crack down on piracy, although he agrees there is still a long way to go. Rotana has recently lowered the price of its CD’s drastically to combat piracy sales. Hajjar explains the concept, saying the price of a legal copy is now only a few dollars above the pirate price, as opposed to the previous 10 dollars-plus difference.

“We have also waged an awareness campaign and are moreover making a real effort to bring our CD’s closer to consumers, working not only with our own retail outlets and dedicated chains like Virgin, but setting up distribution to the small local supermarket-cum-fuel station chains,” he says. For smaller labels like Incognito, though, piracy does not have the same effect. Sfeir has no major problem with piracy, apart from the effect it has of impeding the establishment of a distribution network. On the contrary, he sees piracy as a form of promotion, bringing Incognito’s music to new audiences.

“A part of this public will eventually go looking for the original copy, attend concerts, or in other ways contribute to our scene,” concludes Sfeir. As Khcheich sees it, the main disadvantage is that with all the copying going on in the Arab world, “not only can you not count on the real CD selling in most countries, but there’s no way to know even how many you are selling.”

The warm weather this year may be celebrated by some but for the many keen skiers the snowy slush and closed slopes in the ski resorts of Lebanon are causing consternation. Despite this, however, people are still taking to the slopes at the ski resorts of Faraya and Kfardebiane in large numbers, allowing the businesses there to breathe a huge collective sigh of relief.

In fact, such is the nature of Lebanon that despite this being the worst ski season in terms of snow in recent history, businesses have seen robust growth year-on-year. Joanne Zarifé, communications manager of the Intercontinental Mzaar, says that, “the occupancy of the resort maintained a high level exceeding the percentage of the last two years by 26 percent and the hotel has occupancy averages of 90 percent until March 2009. Our restaurant outlets have also shown an increasing occupancy of 22 percent compared to 2008.”

Ronald Sayegh, general manager of www.skilebanon.co.uk, also announced that his company had achieved growth of 20 percent last year. So while the warm weather has kept the snow away, the lack of snow has not kept the people away.

However, companies in the mountains are not resting on their laurels and are keen to stress that there is enough snow to enjoy the slopes. As Zarifé claims, “Now since the weather conditions have changed due to global warming, there are periods where skiing conditions are perfect and periods where it could be much better. But since it snowed heavily [in February], it is guaranteed that the month of March will be great in terms of skiing.”