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Economics & Policy

Uncertain times ahead

by Tony Hchaime October 1, 2004
written by Tony Hchaime

There has been much speculation surrounding the implications of the presidential extension, especially given the reservations articulated by international leaders, the UN, and prominent members of the Arab League, including the GCC and Jordan.

Lebanon’s economy is highly fragile and vulnerable to local and regional political developments. Historically, times of uncertainty led to economic downturns, with slowdown in production, exports, and tourism, with only local consumption supporting the economy. Today, however, local consumption has been hit by a drastic deterioration in the standard of living in the country, flaring concerns about the economic implications of the Lahoud extension, the potential departure of Hariri, changes in the relationships with Syria and the incumbent developments in foreign relations, especially with the US and Europe. While no crystal ball is available to foresee the new Lahoud era, and no logical reasoning can prove Lahoud’s claims that his new term will be “different,” Lebanon’s economy continues to shoulder a massive public debt, recurring budget deficit, and delays in reforms. Public spending and budget deficit

Government spending on infrastructure and other public expenditures has historically been a main driver for economic growth in Lebanon, at least under the various Hariri governments. The market clearly recalls an economy on the verge of collapse during the Selim el Hoss government in 2000, when the government at the time put a lid on expenditures by blocking many infrastructure projects. Over the past years, the Hariri and Lahoud camps have been balancing each other out on the issue. Hariri’s camp, much more inclined towards spending, has been pushing for more and more infrastructure projects, while the Lahoud camp’s more conservative approach managed to keep the resulting budget deficit from blowing through the roof. Hariri seems sincere about his intention to quit the government if Lahoud stays in power. Should this be the case, the country may witness a serious shift in policy on government expenditures on construction and infrastructure. With no clear sign of who the incoming new prime minister would be, it is anyone’s guess as to what the budget would look like one year from now, and what the economic impact of a major change would reveal.

Alternatively, government public revenues would also be seriously affected by a change in policy. The Hariri government’s policy has typically been in favor of raising taxes and custom duties as a means to improve government revenues, especially as no serious plans for privatization or securitization are in the pipeline. The reason why such plans have not yet been implemented is because of differences of opinion between Hariri and Lahoud, differences of opinion that would no longer exist should one of them depart. Does this mean privatization and securitization are to take place if Lahoud stays and Hairi leaves? Why it may be the case, no one can really predict the outcome of such a development, and if it would obtain the optimal valuations.

Interest Rates

Changes in government policies regarding revenues and expenditures would surely affect the government ability to borrow funds, and ultimately interest rates. Recent efforts by the Hariri government to lower interest rates in an effort to boost economic growth and reduce the debt-servicing burden on the budget have been haled as somewhat successfully. On the other hand, however, interest rates are mainly a function of two parameters in Lebanon: the demand for money, mainly resulting from government borrowing, and the market’s assessment of the risk associated with lending.

Over the past 18 months, the government has managed to keep a tighter lid on borrowing, and has successfully swapped some long-term debt into another at cheaper rates. With Lahoud’s typically conservative view on spending, the upcoming government might just be successful at keeping a tab on borrowing. The problem, however, may fall on the other side of the equation. Basic economics stipulate that nominal interest rates in any economy are a function of the market’s risk assessment of lending, among other things. Uncertainly yields higher risk, and the uncertainty surrounding Lahoud, a new government, the UN resolution, the US stance on Syria, and the Syrian military presence in Lebanon create an unmatched recipe for uncertainty. Let alone international lenders to the Lebanese government, local lenders – large Lebanese banks – have recently showed reluctance to lend to the government, as illustrated by the significant shrinkages in the government securities portfolios of the banking sector in Lebanon. As such, interest rates are likely to raise, providing a more attractive risk premium to attract potential local and international lenders. Would this adversely affect economic growth and to what extent remains unclear, but a sudden rise in interest rates just as the Lebanese economy may be clawing itself out of recession would probably shove it back into it rapidly.

The banking sector

So how would the famed Lebanese banking sector be affected by such political developments, and how would it respond their various financial and economic implications? As mentioned earlier, banks in Lebanon have been recently reluctant to lend money to the government, thereby reducing their exposure to government securities and the Lebanese pound. While the latter may not be at risk due to the more than sufficient foreign exchange reserves of the central bank, a continued support for the domestic currency, inevitable during times of uncertainty and ill confidence, would seriously strain such resources.

Therefore, the first bank to be affected by such developments would be the central bank, which is likely to struggle to keep the Lebanese pound afloat.

Commercial banks, on the other hand, face a much higher risk. Political instability is often associated with capital flight from the country host to the instability. The extension to Lahoud’s term and the ensuing international upheaval are again casting a blanket of uncertainty over the country, and would, if sustained, drive away funds belonging to Lebanese as well as other Arabs. It is no secret that money follows safety, and a deep rift among the Lebanese people, Syria, the US, the UN, and the rest of the Arab world is far from being a good prescription for financial safety and stability. Aside from potential capital flight, another risk, relating to banks and associated with recent political developments is the cost of sources of funds. Banks in Lebanon have been reluctant to extend corporate loans, and as they are now reducing investments in government securities, they are struggling to find optimal uses of funds for their excess liquidity. Lower interest rates over the past year have failed to create a significant jump in corporate loans and credit facilities, making the task of finding optimal uses of funds even more difficult.

Making things worse, a rise in interest rates would increase the banks’ cost of funds, as rates in deposits would no doubt increase substantially. As such, higher cost of funds coupled with more scarce investment opportunities are likely to adversely impact the sector’s profitability and liquidity. That is, unless, we fall back into the vicious circle where the banks are forced to swallow government debts, the latter is forced to raise interest rates to keep borrowing, and ultimately reach a point where banks are overexposed to country risk and the Lebanese Pound, and the private sector is completely crowded out or unable to function at such high interest rates.

Time, along with Mr. Lahoud, Mr. Assad, Mr. Annan, and Mr. Bush, will tell.

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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The Buzz

Handling conflict in the workplace

by Tommy Weir October 1, 2004
written by Tommy Weir

The textbook definition of conflict is “a situation where two or more people experience an incompatibility of perceptions, feelings and actions regarding interests, values and goals.” The reality behind office conflict involves a host of fears, behavior patterns and financial pressures, which can complicate a simple misunderstanding.

For several reasons, the workplace can be a hotspot for tension and conflict, including when:

•Cooperation is needed among people from different cultures (e.g. different working styles, communication patterns, expectations, attitudes, and different values).

•Implementation of exclusionary values in systems and interpersonal interactions occurs. •More resources are needed.

•Status/ranking is evident.

•People collaborate to produce a product or service but have own specialties and conflict responsibilities.

•You may not choose people you work with.

•Working conditions include long hours and/or close quarters.

•Strong allegiances to subgroups intensify/complicate conflicts (e.g. department, work functions, sect, professional, identity, management).

Conflicts that are not resolved to meet everybody’s demands can often wreak havoc. Small misunderstandings fester, tension builds up, and before you know it you’re caught in a self-perpetuating whirlpool. The good news is that conflict can be a terrific catalyst for growth and improvement in the office and at home if handled properly. It’s not the disagreement that matters as much as how we chose to respond. Most people do not respond; they react. They rely on regularly used behaviors for defending and proving that they are right. Their hot buttons are turned on the defense mode, which means that many people are ready to take a stand by remaining stuck in their position. The bottom line is that most people when confronted with a conflict just want to be in control of the process.

To get a positive outcome from an office conflict, first you must not see it as a failure. It’s better to look at it as a communication glitch. The key then is to discover the gap in perception and understanding. If you are one of the parties involved, then a good starting point is to look at yourself and your communication style. Are you communicating effectively? This also means asking questions when you don’t understand something.

A unique and essential cross-cultural method to identifying one’s conflict personality type is by using the natural elements: earth, water, fire, air. Each personality element behaves differently when faced with conflict. Earth people are stubborn and grounded to details, perfection, and loyalty, but are also strong and unmoved in crisis. Water people are driven by their deep emotions, allowing them to flow through situations. They are gentle, highly sensitive, have the gift of changing form according to which personality they deal with and, in general, hate conflict. Fire people are unpredictable creative, dynamic, and very passionate, taking great pleasure in exciting battles and attacking when others don’t agree with them. Air people are objective and rational thinkers, who attempt to understand the world and resolve disputes quickly by using laws, mathematics, philosophy, and psychology.

We recently worked with an organization, which had major problems in its training department. The problem mainly involved two people, but affected the entire department’s environment. By using the four elements to identify their personality type, we were able to distinguish between their conflict handling styles. The scenario went something like this:

Mira – overachiever, hard working and dependable – and Suzy – accommodating to everyone’s needs, also hard working, optimistic, and sensitive – had both been assigned to create a project proposal. They were working in an undersized office environment, had different working styles, clashing personalities and came from different backgrounds. From the beginning, there were antagonisms due to miscommunication.

Mira perceived Suzy as not carrying out her share of the work. She felt that she didn’t understand or have the tools to write a proper proposal and that Suzy was more committed to her personal life. Suzy saw Mira as a control freak, trying to run the show. Mira presented her part of the work as a done deal; the way it “should be” done, and not as a team effort. She perceived her as intimidating and a perfectionist, not trusting anyone but herself to get the job done. The conflict further escalated when they started gossiping about each other to their co-workers. Mira attempted to exchange chitchat about Suzy with her boss, even involving her in a manipulation trap and convincing her boss that she was a victim.

As it turns out, productive work time became thwarted and the rest of the employees in the department were affected. Something had to be done, not only for the sake of easing the tensions, but also to save the department. We scheduled a consulting session with the head of the department, Suzy, Mira and their co-workers, and conducted a comprehensive feedback evaluation. Receiving critical feedback is not always a pleasurable thing, but it is an important part of business today.

Mira and Suzy set an example for other co-workers by accepting difficult messages from each other and committing themselves to the evaluation and improvement process. The feedback helped Mira realize that her image as possessive and domineering was hindering her ability to inspire the department. Suzy, for her part, came to realize that she was perceived as a slacker and “floater” in the department, not taking her role serious enough.

We also held a mediation session in order for both parties to confront each other with the underlying issues and misperceptions that led up to the conflict. During this session, all boundaries and barriers were broken down in order for a circle of truth to be formed. Each person shared their anger, frustration and any other emotions they felt towards their relationship with each other over the past couple of months. By communicating effectively, openly and honestly, they reached a mutual understanding with one another.

It is evident that we were working with two clashing personality types. Mira, an earth bound person, was stubborn and unwilling to perceive Suzy’s entry to the department as an opportunity to learn and exchange creative ideas. However, her loyalty to her job was a supportive measure, which allowed her to remain grounded to the department. Suzy, water by nature, tried to swim her way out of the conflict, but she cared deeply for the emotional health of the department and participated willingly with the outside intervention. Her flexibility and accommodating style helped speed up the reconciliation.

We may not always have the privilege of choosing whom we work with, but the challenge in every conflicting relationship is to focus on the problem NOT the person. The problem in this case was that neither party took responsibility for their own actions, words or thoughts. They held the other person accountable for their own perceptions and failed communication.

There are several ways to take responsibility without losing face. An apology, for instance, is often one of the most difficult, but it can be done without even using the words “I’m sorry.”

Even the most difficult people can undergo positive transformation in behavior after engaging in the process of conflict transformation. It requires honesty and a commitment to growth and excellence. It demands that we re-imagine who we are and who we could be. It asks that we stretch ourselves past outgrown patterns and behaviors. We must not only be able to accept negative feedback, but actually seek it out. We must constantly be aware of our blind spots, and of areas where we can improve our understanding of our impact on others we work with.


When a conflict arises and you feel helpless, here are some general principles to ease your mind and emotions:

•Stay calm – don’t lose your temper

•Don’t fall into a trap and become defensive

•Deal with the task at hand, not on whose fault the conflict was

•State the issues as differences, not as who was right or who was wrong

•Be persistent in stating your case

•Be constructive and focus on a solution.
 


Tommy Weir and Christine Crumrine are from Beirut-based CrumrineWeir, the global leadership experts.

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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Financially yours…

by Yasser Akkaoui October 1, 2004
written by Yasser Akkaoui

Ever since Christopher Columbus touched the Spanish royal family for some venture capital and discovered the new world, history has been littered with the achievements of those who were both bold enough to fight for their ideas and those who had enough faith to back them.

In Lebanon, this entrepreneurial drive has been solely developed and driven by the private sector, one that accepts that it does not operate in the most favorable business environment but still succeeds in combining a flair that is underpinned with shrewd business savvy. GS, Rectangle Jaune, Roadster, Casper and Gambini’s, and Zaatar W Zeit are but a few examples of Lebanese business spirit that has won over an Arab world still obsessed with importing ideas.

But where is the government support? Is it in the $20/m2 in license fees to set up a factory? Is it in the red tape and extra payments required by civil servants not qualified to do their jobs? Does it perhaps lie in the corridors of IDAL, the so-called one-stop-shop that has so far failed to deliver? Maybe it is all of the above. Fortunately, Lebanese business has learned to thrive independently. It will never die, but it may just go elsewhere.

EXECUTIVE believes in the private sector and that is why it has placed so much importance in this month’s issue, which is heavily tilted towards finance and investment. Thomas Schellen dreams of a united Arab stock market as well as offering a selection of financial tools for the investor in 2005. Nicolas Photiades takes the legacy of Columbus and looks at the limited venture capital opportunities in Lebanon, while Faysal Badran casts doubt on the nation’s appetite to spend in the run up to Christmas. Finally, EXECUTIVE talks to Naji Butros, the investment banker who gave up heading a $24 million profit-making division at Merrill Lynch to encourage investment in his own country.

Finally, we cannot ignore the recent politicking, which once again threatens to pull the country three steps back after one hard-earned, step forward. In our cover story, Joey Ghaleb, argues what is at stake for Lebanon if the international community feels our leaders are not serious about economic reform, while Tony Hchaime predicts the fiscal outlook in the wake of the presidential extension.

Enjoy!

October 1, 2004 0 comments
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For your information

Interminable terminal

by Executive Contributor September 28, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

The saga concerning the private jet terminal at the Beirut airport continues. The new terminal was supposed to open its doors last June, but until now it has not. “We are facing technical problems with the air conditioning and lighting,” said Samir Fakeh, head of the Civil Aviation Department. “The system does not function as it should.”

Fakeh was not able to indicate the exact nature of the problems, nor was the SNAM contracting company responsible for the overall finishing of the 120,000 square meter terminal, which hosts eight VIP lounges, a 300 square meter shopping area and restaurant. No retail space has been rented out yet.

The building took some two years to construct and forms the backbone of a $33 million investment to better facilitate the growing fleet of private jets flying to Beirut. So far, 13 private jet companies from Europe and the Arab world have handed in requests to rent space at the new facility. Despite the delay, none of them has canceled yet, said Fakeh. Still, he would have liked to tap into the busy summer tourist season. He was unable to give an estimation of possible losses, which may run into hundreds of thousands of dollars.

An indication of possibly the real reason for the delay came in Fakeh’s answer to when the facility might open. “Maybe in September,” he said, “but maybe we’ll have to wait for the presidential elections to be over.”

Fakeh did not want to go into further details. It’s no secret, however, that differences in opinion over the second mandate of President Emile Lahoud have paralyzed much in the country. The new VIP facility appears to have fallen into the stagnation trap due to the ambient political rivalries. And like many other sectors, the opportunity costs are swiftly mounting.

September 28, 2004 0 comments
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For your information

Ineke Botter

by Executive Contributor September 9, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

With the mass migration of almost one million 03 mobile numbers to the 71 prefix set for the night of September 17, Ineke Botter, Managing Director and CEO of Alfa, would have every right in the world to be a bit nervous. After all, the switchover involves several private and governmental entities, not to mention the Lebanese public itself who is not necessarily given to listening to patient lessons on the need to reformat the country’s collective digital phonebook. The thing is that Botter is not particularly nervous – at least not outwardly. In fact, while the four week lead up to the switchover will undoubtedly involve her in a blizzard of PR and outreach efforts, she’s as focused as ever on the big picture: Revamping the mobile network, offering expanded services and, hopefully, expanding the customer base so overall rates might eventually come down.

Executive: Lebanon is set to see the mobile code 03 change to 71 in mid September. What is Alfa doing to inform a potentially confused public about the switch?

Ineke Botter: We are doing a lot now. We started with a kick off interview on LBC…. and the Ministry of Telecommunications (MoT) will organize a press conference shortly. We are talking to each and every paper and magazine, and we will have a billboard campaign with Alfa, MTC, Ogero and MoT along highways – around 1,500 in all. We will also have a number of inserts in magazines etc. When the mobile code 03 is transferred to 71 on the night of September 17 and into September 18, if you make a call nationally to 03 then you have to change to 71. If it is an international incoming call however, then it will be forwarded automatically to 71 forever – although the caller will get a message to dial 71 next time. So we are doing a lot of “pretty” work and a lot of work after the 18th of September. The reason why we are doing all this is it has already incurred a lot of work for ourselves for over a year now – lately we have a project team of about twenty people and endless suppliers involved all making sure that this is a seamless enterprise at least from a technical point of view. So one month before, we want to make sure that people understand how [the changeover] will function so we don’t get any overload in customer care with questions that are basically crystal clear if we explain them over time. The other aspect here is that we are trying to make people aware that they really need to do something. This means that [customers] have to change in their mobiles the codes from 03 to 71. Once it is done it will not happen again, so it’s a one-off. The final issue I want to mention is that people will most probably have to print new business cards and stationary, so the public cost is so big that we found it necessary to inform people well beforehand.

Executive: Is there a number now for how much the switchover may cost consumers?

IB: There is no estimation of the cost… Although there is international benchmarking, it is very dependent on the local situation because, for example, printing costs are a lot lower here than in Europe… definitely though [the cost to consumers] will be in the millions.

Executive: Is one month of publicity really enough time? Why didn’t alfa start earlier?

IB: Well the MoT is the owner. Of course, the mobile operators are the first ones involved in this project. We are very willing to do whatever is necessary to inform the public, but you have to recognize that in May, for example, there were other items on the agenda, the elections. So the changeover was not the top priority, and I think people have to understand. It is quieter now though so I think people will understand.

Executive: Why was this step necessary in the first place?

IB: The fixed line network uses 01 and 02 and then all of a sudden 03 is mobile and then you have 04 and 05 etc [local numbers]. So to have a numbering plan in place, the MoT decided that this needed to be harmonized. The first step was that they restudied the fixed line network so you have to dial an area code and then the number. Now, 03 will be put aside and used later in the fixed line network. The other reason was that, at the moment, [the MoT] had to introduce a new number block for one million new numbers… So we released 70 [in June] which you now have and you will have 71 and if the market ever grows to 100% [penetration] you might have 72.

Executive: What is your biggest concern about the switchover?

IB: Well it is not a big concern, but there will be some outages in some systems because they have to migrate. This is just a fact of life that we have to do. One of the things that will be affected is the Intelligent Network for prepaid subscribers. In any event, we are now determining with suppliers at which hour we will be doing something, and we will send out this schedule to customers. My expectation is this will be a very small issue. And we will compensate if there is some loss.

Executive: Is the introduction of new numbers –the 70 prefix – helping to bring down Lebanon’s notoriously high mobile rates?

IB: The MoT decides on the prices, not us. After 14 months here, I have said this a million times: it is not us. Each and every new service or tariff change we need to ask approval. We do have the expertise in house to act as a consultant to the government to say ‘if you lower the prices by XYZ then we can predict to you the following customer take up.

Executive: You can show them this. Have you shown them?

IB: Sure….but you have to look at the other side of the coin, which means what is the investment per subscriber and how can I recoup that investment. You have to study your addressable markets, then you have to see what the revenue stream is for the government… all while investing for these additional customers. So these calculations are not on the back of an envelope. You can say, for example, ok we estimate the market growth at 30%, which means for the government that the investment will be so much. And that investment needs to paid from the revenue stream which, at the moment, goes straight to the state budget.

Executive: So even if the government wanted to drop mobile prices tomorrow and expand the customer base, the network itself is just not ready for this?

IB: First of all this network is old, so the first calculations that you have to do is to see how you have to replace network elements – we have to replace quite a bit of the network, for the existing customer. Second, you have to look at services you want to offer to your current customer base. If we want to go to the 2.5 generation G – the EDGE technology – at the moment a lot of the network cannot support it. Then, the third thing is that we want to have a bigger uptake of new customers so we would need to build out to cater to this [lower level] market segment…. My top priority is the replacement of network elements, while doing this we can also add capacity itself.

Executive: It has been more than a year since Alfa came to Lebanon, how has business been thus far?

IB: The first year after the take-over has been a challenging time starting with the ramping up of the number of personnel. As you might remember, we lost 57% of the employees when we arrived and had to start recruiting at great speed, then of course, all recruits had to be trained on the job, which was and is a great task and achievement for everyone involved. Then, there was the rebranding from Cellis to alfa which involved over 50 people. That said, from a management and operational point of view, I’m quite happy. We have increased subscribers by 15% and also increased our roaming partners by 13%. Now, what we urgently need is investment in replacing equipment and expanding the network, as I said, to cater to the continuous growth of subscribers. Also, alfa wants to take the next step in launching more data services, again, a project that needs time and substantial money but will support the development of the economy. To a certain extent, I compare Lebanon to the Netherlands where I’m from: both are trading companies really… and traders need the newest business tools to make sure they are on the cutting edge.

September 9, 2004 0 comments
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Getting to grips with gadgets

by Nicholas Noe September 1, 2004
written by Nicholas Noe

It used to be that an explanation on new technology products could conveniently divide itself into three separate sections of use: personal, home and office. Each section would have its own array of products and its own technical jargon. Prices and functionality would invariably increase along a fairly even trajectory the closer you moved to the bulky world of corporate computing and communication. Mixing was not only discouraged (by most manufacturers and advertisers alike, who relied on profits from segmented markets), it was, well, downright impossible.

Alas, the world has changed. The techno-reviewer of old no longer has the benefit of clear boundary lines, much less a limited number of product lines from a limited number of well-known companies. Prosumer (professional/consumer). Convergence. Mobility. These are the current buzzwords used by the growing number of gadget magazines and websites, a phenomenon matched by the equally growing field of technology products.

In the midst of such confusion there is, of course, an abundance of pitfalls and opportunities – for both the daring reviewer and consumer. Price. Compatibility. Functionality. Durability. Though all these factors must be taken into account – and all present there own problems even now – rare is the techno-purchase that successfully navigates between all four. Rarer still is the consumer who can avoid the fifth axis, the ‘golden rule’ of techno-gadgetry: Thou shall not purchase or attempt to put to use a useless invention. Although a new gadget may indeed have its “uses,” if it is quickly shelved – as many PDAs have been – or is not updated with the latest virus protection or software updates, then it essentially becomes “useless.” (Try reviving that first generation PDA that you never got to work and you will quickly discover that it is basically “useless”). “People don’t realize that much of this technology needs to be maintained, it needs to be constantly updated. If is not, then it quickly becomes useless,” said Karim Harb, a Lebanese technologist, telecommunications expert and gadget aficionado. In Lebanon, of course, consumers face their own unique challenges since not all of the more basic functions of certain innovations can be used here. Wi-Fi, for example, the popular wireless internet and home/office networking technology, is only legal in a small number of areas, while Voice Over Internet Protocol technology, or internet telephony, is barred outside of intra-building use. As such, mobile PDAs and laptops, or office phones, lose key elements of their overall convergence capability.

And one should not forget that the Lebanese consumer also faces a final problem in the world of techno-gadgetry. “You don’t have any stores that are dedicated to gadgets,” explained Harb with a simple shrug of his shoulders to accentuate his annoyance. “You had the 460 store that was open on Hamra street – it closed down because the market was too small. Now all gadget stores are small sections of bigger stores – like at BHV and Virgin, for example. They don’t have a permanent supply of new stuff that comes out and you are never sure if you will find what you are looking for.” Supply problems aside, and with a wary eye towards overdoing it, there are indeed a number of recently introduced or improved technology products that can offer both the frugal and free-spending Lebanese consumer a wealth of innovative, productive and downright entertaining improvements to everyday life – at home, alone or at work.

Digital music players

One of the clear leaders in the general category of ‘improving life as we know it’ is, of course, the digital music player. In this arena, an epic fight is shaping up between Apple’s iPod and Sony’s new Walkman. Unfortunately, when Sony Corp. president, Kunitake Ando, showed off his company’s latest challenge to Apple’s increasing dominance in the area of sleek MP3 players, he held the so-called Network Walkman upside down.

It was not a good start.

Since that time, the 20 Gigabyte player, priced at around $400, has met with mixed reviews. Even on Sony’s home turf in Japan, press reports have been ebullient over the Japanese consumers’ apparent fascination with the iPod. The Walkman is “impossibly slim,” as some reviewers have put it, at 14mm (it is roughly the length of a credit card). It can store around 13,000 songs encoded on Sony’s ATRAC3 format and has a battery life of 30 hours (the iPod now lasts 12). Of course, the 13,000 song claim is a bit overstated – to get that much onto the Walkman, a lot of compression is necessary which degrades the sound. The iPod, for its part, can offer up to 40 gigabytes for around $600 – its 20 Gig version that ships soon is $100 less than the new Sony entrant. iPod is also comparable in thinness, though a bit heavier than the Walkman. Significantly though, it syncs up through either a PC or a Mac (the Walkman works only with PCs) to Apple’s iTunes online music service that has been wildly popular – songs are 99 cents for download. Although iPod has apparently not yet caught on with the Lebanese consumer, its ease of use and flexibility will make it stand out even as it benefits from Sony’s own push to increase the worldwide desirability of the digital music player.

When PDA, cell phone and camera meet


On the higher end of the market, two all-in-one phones immediately stand out: Sony Ericsson’s new P910, which ships this fall, and the new iMate II. Although the Ericsson model is priced around $900 (the latest iMate sells for around $1,300), both offer comparable, that is, suburb features. Both can support huge memory sticks, up to one gigabyte, for loads of pictures (although the quality ceiling here is lower than most of the mid-range digital cameras). When used with a DVD burner and encoder software, you can view your favorite movies on each device’s color screen in stereophonic sound with a smooth playback. Both offer mobile internet, chat, email and a wide range of Windows XP supported applications – including all standard PDA functions. Both also sync up wirelessly to laptops and are GSM Tri-Band phones. Although the processor is more powerful on the iMate II, the P910 is still a very imposing device with more than enough processing power to get most jobs done. [START OPTIONAL TRIM]On the lower end of the almost converged market, both the new Sprint PM-8920 camera phone and the Palmone Zire PDA immediately come to mind for. The Sprint phone is priced at $300 and offers some modest PDA features. Significantly, it is the Sprint’s first megapixel camera, which means the quality of its images can finally compete with the mid-range digital cameras. Palmone’s new PDA entry, for its part, priced at a mere $150 dollars, comes highly recommended by the tech press. It includes wireless synching, handwriting recognition technology, 8MB of memory, a full range of PDA features and what is described by some as “an iPod look and feel.” It is a solid purchase for the first time PDA buyer that just needs basic applications and ease of use. [END OPTIONAL TRIM]

For those of you who still like the good old fashioned cellphone, Seimens’ new M65 won’t let you down. It’s rugged design with rubber seals and protective metal frame mean it’s water resistant, dust and shockproof as well as offering integrated VGA photos and a video camera, all for $399

Phone accessories

No matter what device you purchase, a few accessories now on the market can fairly be described as “must haves.” One is Plantronics’ M3000 Wireless headset for cell phones. At $100 and with eight hours of battery life, it makes driving and talking safe and easy. So too does the new Q2 XDA from iMate, which is around $150. The wireless device hooks up to a car stereo and essentially operates the phone (kept in your briefcase if you wish) via a small touchpad on the dashboard. And finally, there is the Smart solar charger, which for $60, uses the sun to recharge or operate a cell phone. Ideal if you’re in a jam, but beware of uselessness: it could take up to eight hours or more for a full charge… and it has to be sunny out.

Digital cameras

Two recent cameras, one from Canon and one from Sony, seem to be sweeping the technology award world (an admittedly strange world). The Canon EOS 300D, priced at around $600, truly puts the “pro into prosumer.” The camera offers 6.3 megapixels for great pictures at any size. It is not meant to fit into a shirt pocket, however; it is meant to take great pictures with the ease and immediacy of a digital, and it does that better than its rivals. The Sony Cyber-Shot DSC-W1, Sony’s latest Cyber-Shot product, is now in stores for around the same price as the Canon. It weighs in at five megapixels, has a large 2.5 inch solar LCD screen and is far smaller than the Canon. Excellent, in other words if resolution and size are what you’re after. Mini hard drives

Although one gig mini hard drives that fit on a key chain are now available for around $400, Jetflash’s 256 MB mini drive provides the best value at $85. Mini hard drives are simple in their construction, so no need to buy for the name.

The ‘World’s Smallest’ Notebook PC, portable DVD player

From the manufacturer Lilliput comes the impressively small Life Book P7010. At 1.4 kilos, the 10.6 inch screen can indeed seem like just a screen – or one of those not-quite-accepted tablet PCs that are supposed to merge laptops and tower PCs. At around $2,000, you get a powerful enough processor, based on the new Intel Centrino mobile technology, all standard Windows-based functionality and a CD-RW/DVD drive.

Even though it’s small, you could also probably use a Wi-Fi finder with the notebook so you don’t have to take it out every time you want to see if an Internet hotspot is available. At $35, Kensington’s keychain Wi-Fi finder is ideal.

If you don’t want everything bundled together, however, or you want a larger screen for mere viewing, then the new Designer Vision DVD player, out this fall, may be perfect. The battery can last up to six hours, and the flip-screen set up is 7 inches. Though in the middle in terms of size –is well worth the $600 cost for its design, picture quality and sturdiness.

LCD and Plasma Screens The high end and increasingly the medium level marketplace for TVs has decidedly turned toward two options: LCD and plasma. Traditionally used for laptop monitors and small screen devices, LCD TVs generally offer a longer viewing life and sharper picture. Plasmas generally have a brighter picture and greater viewing angles. LCDs, however, are generally restricted to a smaller screen size – Samsung, in fact, recently rolled out the largest LCD at 42 inches. Plasmas can get significantly bigger. Price is, of course, a huge factor here, since LCDs are generally 20% more expensive than plasmas, although LCD prices are dropping faster than plasmas. That said, one new offering from NEC, their 40 inch LCD screen which acts seamlessly as both a computer monitor and TV, is priced at only $4,000. At a resolution of 1280X1024, the NEC model clearly beats the new Blautech 42 inch plasma screen, also priced at $4,000 (the Blautech plasma only gets 800X640 resolution). On the higher end, there is, naturally, Sony. Here, especially, one can see the price difference between LCD and plasma – the new Sony 42 inch plasma screen, the KE-42TSE, is priced at 6,000. The best Sony LCD, the KDL-L42MRX1, is a whopping $14,000. The resolution on both Sony screens is superior to the lesser priced competitors; what’s more both have built in tuners, so the total package is remarkably compact and slender.

Accompanying any plasma or LCD purchase is, necessarily, the home theatre. MSI offers what is essentially a PC to operate the NEC screen. At $1,000, when combined with a Logitech 5.1 surround sound system (500 watts) for $400, what you get is a fast computer, a terrific flat screen and a home theater to go along with it. All run on Windows XP and have all of the capabilities of any new desktop computer setup: DVD player, CD writer etc. It is, in short, one of the best convergence offerings out there, in terms of both value and functionality, for the home.

If, however, you want an even more powerful, crisp and compact sound system for the home theater, then Bose is the clear leader. The new Lifestyle 35, which just hit stores, offers a five inch speaker array for full 5.1 surround sound, accompanied by a DVD/CD player. The package is steeply priced at $3,485. But, as with Sony, what you are paying for is the name, the quality and the service which goes along with the label.

Video recorders

As hard drive prices have come down dramatically, and as the number of channels has increased exponentially, the home video recorder has become an indispensable part of the home theatre experience. Two options jump out. First is the newly launched Samsung DVD-HR700. The global leader in digital convergence technology, Samsung’s new recorder, priced at around $700, allows users to record in three different formats, including DVD-RAM, which allows for remarkable flexibility in the types of devices that can play any recordings. The recorder is capable of 160 hours of taping, without comprising the high quality of the video that is captured and can also play and record simultaneously (an especially convenient function). At 69mm, it’s also a sleek complement to any equally slender flat screen. For work…at home or at the office

While laptops and computers have been getting more powerful and cheaper on a fairly predictable curve, several new market entrants offer some dramatic improvements over current offerings. One of these is Samsung’s all-in-one printer that actually seems to make good on the promise of convergence. The SCX-4100 is a black and white laser printer, digital copier and color scanner. Priced at less than $200, the machine puts laser printing within reach of the average desktop setup. At 600 dots per inch, color scans up to 4,800 dots per inch and 14 pages per minute, the printer is especially efficient. At 16 inches by 15 inches, it is also perfect for cramped dorm rooms. [BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM] At $369, HP’s new Photo smart 7760 offers what many families, individuals and companies want –a color printer that can print borderless pictures in brilliant resolution while tackling the everyday demands of document printing. The printer links easily to digital cameras, can print up to 21 pages per minute black and white (16 color), and carries an easy to use 4.6 inch LCD screen for fairly simple navigation. [END TRIM] Meanwhile the $1,200 WorkCentre M15 from Xerox offers 15 A4 prints per minute, crisp 1200 dpi print resolution, two-sided network printing, digital copying, electronic collation, color scanning and faxing. It really is a small and remarkably powerful machine. While the printers may be the workhorses of the desktop set-up, video projectors are fast becoming a necessary compliment in their own right. At under $2,000, it is now possible to have one of the clearest projection images available on the market. The Hitachi PJ-TX100, recently debuted, offers simple menu control, multiple connection ports for every imaginable device and a lightweight design that makes it easy to carry around for any kind of presentation – entertainment business or otherwise. Finally, for the truly converged home or office, there are Cisco’s IP phones. Although IP telephony is illegal in Lebanon, it is legal to use the technology within a company’s walls. This doesn’t really help the home user much, but for companies, the technology has been a boon. Cisco recently built a converged voice, video and data network for Kuwait’s Arraya Center that, at its core, is based on the IP telephones. It also did so recently for one large Lebanese company that is now saving almost $300,000 per year in maintenance and equipment fees. While Cisco’s offerings are more expensive than regular office phones, the value and savings come through the added functionality. Phones like the 79xx can reach up to $300, but by collapsing separate voice and data networks, thus eliminating separate maintenance charges, and by allowing for email, voicemail synching, plug-and-play capability, the IP phones are indeed the way we will all speak and share information in the coming years.

 

*Note: The internet prices that appear in the article may vary, sometimes substantially from local in-store prices.

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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ICT coming to soon to a town near you?

by Thomas Schellen September 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

It sure looks as if in the world and region, all things ICT are returning to normal. Shares in e-companies are no longer an anathema. The big market move of the season from a tech perspective, the Google IPO, clawed its way beyond obstacles to achieve figures that appear, all in all, more respectable than some headlines suggested. Earnings at multinational corporations from Cisco Systems to Dell look good – so good that a 5% quarterly drop in performance of Hewlett Packard’s enterprise server and storage division led the company last month to immediately sack three top executives, even as HP’s overall profits were up 9% for the quarter.

The big names are also hiring. IBM announced in August that it has 18,000 new jobs on offer to bring its worldwide headcount to 330,000 at the end of 2004 and Microsoft said they would hire 6,000 to 7,000 persons during the coming 12 months on top of their current staffing of 57,000. The latest news from the ICT employment market in Germany, Europe’s strongest economy, is that salaries for information and communications technology specialists have accomplished a full rebound to sector income levels of early 2001. Across the MENA region, ICT growth also is again in focus. From PC and software sales to continued surging numbers of mobile phone subscribers, market watchers make enthusiastic projections and global ICT companies court Arab markets for their promising potential, even as these markets are marginal in their annual reports. With many signs to the unmitigated importance of ICT for regional economies and new good days for people in the sector, it appears paramount for a country like Lebanon to do its utmost in preparing the best possible environment for ICT companies to thrive here. International and local experts and executives for firms of all sizes and specializations in the Lebanese ICT community agree not only (despite their differences on many other things) that the country still has a good shot at being an ICT location, but are also in total unison on where crucial changes are needed first. “ICT in the Arab world is a high priority and opportunity for economic development and inclusion in the digital information age,” Microsoft’s regional manager, Charbel Fakhoury, told EXECUTIVE, and enthused, “Lebanon’s ICT potential is still to be fully realized and we are witnessing a strong momentum and support from executive leadership to expedite Lebanon’s realization of the ICT opportunity.” The right size for the Lebanese ICT industry’s production would be around $2 billion, or 10% contribution to GDP, suggested economist Louis Hobeika to EXECUTIVE, and underscored how the country has come a long way in ICT development but has lost ground within the region. “In absolute terms we are perhaps moving forward, but in relative terms we are falling behind,” he said. “One of the obstacles for companies to locate in Lebanon are the high costs in the telecommunications sector, which are three times higher than in the UAE. Our ICT sector today is of average value and average performance.” In Hobeika’s view, Lebanon has several models in the Arab world to look to as examples of who is getting things right: Dubai already, and soon probably also Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar. For Lebanon to gain a new edge in ICT, experts and industry members agree that one urgently required improvement is the establishment of special technology parks. Co-locating numerous companies from one industry in shared environments has proven to lead to interconnections and mutually supporting industrial clusters, enabling stakeholders to advance together and become fit for international competition. Clustering boosts efficiency. Due to ICT companies’ pronounced needs for communications technology and highly trained staff, dedicated tech industry zones, as shown by multiple studies and practical examples, are especially helpful to ICT firms for optimization of their development potential.

The ICT community in Lebanon recognized these potentials earlier than their colleagues and public officials in many other Middle Eastern countries and entrepreneurs started drafting plans for ICT parks as far back as 1997. However, up until today, no large-scale plan has been implemented here. By contrast, tech zones in the UAE, Jordan and Egypt were designed after the first such Lebanese projects – and implemented years ago. Thankfully, however, Lebanon has one ICT technology park, which is demonstrating, albeit at a smaller size, how such an endeavor can be just as successful here as in the industry’s more conspicuous international locations.

The Berytech technological pole incorporates three essentials of a cluster for a growing ICT sector: hosting services, communication facilities, and an incubator where startup businesses can take their first corporate steps. The pole, a $4.5 million project established under strong involvement of Universite Saint Joseph (USJ), opened its doors in November 2002 on a site adjacent to the USJ Mar Roukos campus overlooking Beirut. Not even in its third year, Berytech is already home to some 40 enterprises and is currently researching where it can build additional facilities. “Our plan is to expand every year by 15 to 20 companies between startup and hosted companies,” Berytech president Maroun Chammas told EXECUTIVE. This growth target foresees significant incremental increases in the size of the facility, and the master plan calls for building each year 3,000 to 4,000 square meters in facilities until 50,000 square meters are added to its current 8,000 square meters in built-up area. As this expansion cannot be undertaken on Berytech’s current 3,000 square meter plot, the institution is trying to get land nearby on properties owned by a monastic order or, alternatively, seek buildings in Beirut. The latter option would also suit some resident companies, who told the Berytech management that they would like to be closer to the city, but the business incubator for startup enterprises would in any case remain at the Mar Roukos location. According to Chammas, thus far, all companies located at Berytech have been successful in their business ventures. The pole is open to companies from seven sectors, with information technology and multimedia/communications most developed in their presence. Although the shareholder base of Berytech consists of the USJ, 10 banks and seven industrial enterprises, it is one of the challenges for startups at the pole to acquire financing. “The fact that people are at Berytech makes access easier but Lebanese banks have not developed the business of lending to startups,” Chammas said, “it is one of our responsibilities to ensure that the incubator inspires banks with confidence.”

Startup entrepreneurs receive special support in the pole’s business incubator for a limited period of time. Hosted companies pay charges of $13/m2 per month in rent and $15 per month and computer terminal in connectivity fees. Although these charges may appear substantial by local standards, they have a great advantage in being fully transparent and calculable, said Ralph Bitar, manager of Soft Mind, a developer of corporate software solutions. “Here, a flat fee covers everything. Costs are not higher than in other buildings but benefits are much larger,” he said, and after trying out several locations in Beirut, his firm had found locating at Berytech a great improvement. Habib Maaz, CEO of another software firm, Unilog, concurred, saying his firm had been at Berytech since January 2003, and it had proven a good choice and location, which also impressed foreign visitors.

With Berytech’s good reception in the market, Chammas said he saw potential for having many more poles of its type all throughout the country. “I believe there is room for expansion everywhere in Lebanon.”

Enter the Beirut Emerging Technology Zone. With a projected size based on a one million square meter site, the BETZ project is of a different dimension to Berytech and incorporates a scale that would make it perform in the same league as the Dubai Internet City, the Middle East’s showcase ICT zone. But whenever the BETZ topic comes to discussion these days, opinions among the Lebanese ICT community are divided. Initially put on the table in 1997 through a grant for a feasibility study by USAID, the BETZ concept actually dates back to the bubble days of the new economy. This in itself would not be a problem as the need for a substantial ICT industry zone is as great now as it was then. The problem arises from the project’s enormously sluggish evolution. For the first few years after the proposal’s creation, the BETZ feasibility grants were stuck in various government drawers, with government experts in favor of the project having to produce contrived explanations every time they were asked why the study was experiencing yet another delay in implementation. When the study finally came to see execution around 2002, it was carried out by an American consulting company – somewhat understandably, knowing that US funding in international assistance likes to work that way. Less clear was perhaps, why research for something called BEIRUT Emerging Technology Zone would spend much time evaluating sites in far corners of the nation. As several communities were examined, ICT and development enthusiasts in some of them invested themselves considerably to present their community as location of choice for the project. Relief should have set in when in spring of 2003, IDAL chairman Samih Barbir could make a jubilant announcement that BETZ would be built in Damour in a partnership between IDAL and the municipality. For many in the ICT community, this announcement came so late that they were inclined to question the government’s intentions and validity of the project in numerous respects or were simply in disbelief that BETZ could now be put on the promised fast track of construction and welcome its first tenants by autumn 2006. As if to prove them right, the municipal elections followed and with them a change of elected officials in Damour. Since then, the situation of the project has been obfuscated by disagreements and lagging negotiations, the latest results of which apparently were that the municipality no longer wants to be a partner in owning the project but merely wants to lease the land to BETZ and receive annual rent to the tune of $4 million. Rumours circulating about the municipality’s position moreover talk of local fears to see inflows of outsiders and a tossup of the town’s sectarian balance, instead of welcoming the project’s manifold opportunities for developing the community. For supporters of growth in the Lebanese ICT industry, this is worrying news, because they are convinced that missing out on BETZ now would mean missing out on a crucial chance.

“Microsoft has been a strong supporter of BETZ,” Fakhoury confirmed to EXECUTIVE, describing the zone as “a milestone ICT project that will show Lebanon’s commitment to encourage ICT.” His company was dedicated to continue discussions with stakeholders on how local and multinational IT companies would be able to contribute and benefit from BETZ but warned, “If the project does not get real support, a real boost, it will move slowly.”

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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Q&A: Alfa CEO Ineke Botter

by Executive Contributor September 1, 2004
written by Executive Contributor

In the revamping of cellular network operations in Lebanon, a joint venture under leadership of German company Detecon – itself a full subsidiary of Deutsche Telekom – was awarded a contract to manage the network formerly known as Cellis under a $201 million contract over 48 months. EXECUTIVE talked to Ineke Botter, who is the managing director of the new company, Fal Dete and, incidentally, the first top female executive of a company of its size in Lebanon.

You have stepped into the management of the former Cellis mobile phone network at the beginning of June. What are your impressions after the first three months?

When I came here, I quickly discovered that the personnel – what we have left – is very professional and skilled. That helps a lot. I also discovered that the people are very anxious to keep the business growing, which again is a big benefit to us. We are involved in several areas, beginning with the setup of Fal Dete Telecommunications as the managing company. On the other hand, we have to run the operations and we are running them on half force. About half of the staff left, but the company is undertaking the human resources project to bring staff again to acceptable levels. And we are starting new projects, like the numbering plan, studying business environment, assessing distributors and reviewing the plan of the company – so there is a whole lot to do. My first interest was to get the company up and running by September 1 with almost full staff.

How many employees do you have at present?

At September 1, our number is about 350.

Down the road, what head count do you plan for?

Approximately 400 in the autumn. But we aim to introduce new lines into the market at a very steady base. Each time you do that, you have to look at your personnel because the ratio, for example, between the contact center (to answer all the questions) and the number of subscribers is almost linear. We will grow further.

Your offer to manage the network was much lower than sums paid under previous arrangements. How could you give such an aggressive offer for managing the network?

One of the competing bidders had almost the same offer, so there are at least two people who have the same sort of opinion. I think [we could place this bid] because Detecon is in so many countries and has so much experience with how one can rationalize a company and make it more efficient. Of course, it has also to do with the fact that the sector was very cash rich in the past. In the last few years, it was not so cash rich. Detecon has experience with how to look at efficiencies in companies. We are looking at future proof systems to be put in place, which means that we will grow, but at a steady pace and in line with customer care needs and subscriber numbers.

What is in it for you? Isn’t it correct that as an operator, you do not participate in profits and if you increase profitability, you do not get a greater share?

I cannot comment on that. You have to talk to the shareholders. I am running the company and I have targets.

And these targets are to develop the company in terms of market penetration?

Yes, that is part of it. Of course, our bid was based on a business plan, and the business plan foresees growth in the market. Our company is the manager on behalf of the government. I am the chairperson and also the CEO. We have targets that are related first of all to the business plan that Fal Dete has, which was accepted by the government as an integral part of the network management agreement. Targets are that we manage it and improve the efficiency and put new systems in and make sure that especially the quality is of a high level. It also includes that we propose new services and make sure that the distribution network is in place.

This relationship is limited to managing the network over four years on behalf of the government?

The agreement is that we will manage the network for four years, with measuring activities to make sure that the quality is guaranteed. Some issues will be measured on a weekly, others on a monthly basis and the packet is to make sure that we have performance in our operation and serve the customer according to the government wishes. It doesn’t mean that we are sitting on a chair and just doing what the government says. We were also hired because we are a professional company and come up with ideas and suggestions. It is for the government to decide if they want to accept them.

Would it for instance be possible to switch in the near future from per minute billing to per second billing?

That is the government’s decision. To implement such a change in technical terms requires having information on the billing system and I actually asked this question. It is typical that older systems have more difficulties and you have to make sure that they are addressed. Are some of the network’s tech systems in need of an upgrade?

For sure. In the lifetime of our agreement we will have to replace equipment. For example there about 400 base stations. These do not only have an economic depreciation but also a technical depreciation time, and over the years, a lot of them will have to be replaced. We are carrying out studies now on the whole network to make sure that we understand where we have to upgrade and where the equipment is running out of lifetime.

What are your limits on numbering and the timeframe for a new numbering plan?

Between MTC and ourselves, we can have one million subscribers in the 03 numbering block. We will of course run into a limit and talks are ongoing between Fal Dete and the ministry. They have proposed new methodologies etc, and we are having a look at the technical and economic possibilities of how the proposals would work.

Where do you see the potential for mobile penetration in Lebanon?

Again, I have to refer back to the government, because the investments are done by the government. In our estimation we have predicted a 40% market penetration. But every step needs studies. It is price elasticity that drives the penetration and on the other hand the revenues. There is always equilibrium.

The Cellis services included value added systems such as the plugged portal and StarAd corporate advertising service. Are you developing them, or perhaps reducing some?

One thing is that we will at one point have a new brand name. Once we have a new brand, we will start marketing certain services. It is too early to say which ones we will market more than other ones. We are looking at all possibilities.

Have future fee structures and charges for new lines already been determined?

I cannot comment.

Does Detecon have a position in the discussion on the virtue of liberalization of telecoms markets?

From my personal experience, comparing the difference in development of the regulatory environment for instance between Eastern Europe and Lebanon, I have to admit that Eastern Europe is a lot further. But I have to also say that I had talks with the ministry about these regulatory talks and there is definitely a willingness from the ministry.

Beyond managing networks, Detecon is well known as consultants doing studies and advising governments on ICT. As far as the Middle East, is it correct that you have thus far been doing business only in Saudi Arabia?

There are Saudi partners and we are doing business development with them as we speak, for other countries in the region.

Detecon is expanding in the Middle East?

Detecon is in many countries, and yes, from a communications point of view, the Middle East is very interesting for us.

Let’s talk a bit more about brand building. What does Fal Dete stand for?

That is the manager, it is not a brand. Fal stands for a Saudi Group, and Dete for Detecon.

And you are phasing out the Cellis name?

We have phased it out in a sense that Cellis was sometimes used as the company name and there was a little bit of confusion. We are making some efforts to get the company on the map; that is why we have put the banners with Fal Dete up on this building. That is the first step. We should not confuse the customers, so we introduce the company now and next we will introduce the brand. At some point, the brand awareness for the new brand should be higher than for the company name.

How much of a budget are you allocating to the development of the new brand?

Sizeable.

Can you provide numbers on that?

No. It is again something that we need to discuss with the government.

Is the new brand name being devised by you or by the government?

It is a joint project.

Can you reveal the brand name?

No, we haven’t decided yet (laughs). It is still in production.

By what time do you anticipate the establishment of the brand to be concluded?

It will be concluded by the end of 2004. It is a big project.

How many members of the Detecon staff are working with Fal Dete?

At the moment there is a group of consultants but it is diminishing almost per week. Then there is the management, which consists of four persons. The management stays for four years and the consultants are phased out.

And the bulk of employees are Lebanese?

Yes, except for the four managers.

You said that the level of human resource quality is good?

Yes, and talking from personal experience, that is what I find. I left the Netherlands in 1988 and have worked all over the world since then. I worked in very rich countries like Sweden and Switzerland and in very poor countries, like Kosovo. And if I see how the people are so ambitious to grow and make their lives better, I am always impressed. We appreciate that a lot.

Are employment benefits and salaries comparable to what staff members could earn before, or are there differences?

Reorganization also means that we looked at salary scales, etc. I cannot comment on the level but we are, in my opinion, still on a good pay scale.
 

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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The ongoing love affair

by Peter Speetjens September 1, 2004
written by Peter Speetjens

“A gun is a man’s jewelry.” So says an old Arabic proverb. Traditionally, a father would buy his son a gun when he is born in the same way a girl would receive a pair of gold earrings. In Lebanon, this tradition is all but dead, but the Lebanese still love their guns. In fact, the country is loaded with them. It is estimated that there are over 1 million weapons in private circulation. A significant percentage of them are sporting guns and rifles. Despite a nine-year-old ban on hunting some 30,000 rifles and shotguns – costing between $300 (for a mass produced Turkish 12-bore) to $100,000 for the top of the range Purdeys – are sold in Lebanon every year. There are over a dozen importers and some 50 medium to large distributors operating in a market with a worth of up to $2 million a year. With the right permits, importing and selling hunting weapons is legal. The import of handguns for private – as opposed to government use – is not. This black market is made up of discreet gun collectors, who have the money to pay over the odds for the world’s finest handguns. Then, there are the heavy caliber weapons, both those creaking relics of the civil war (mainly small arms such as the 7.62mm AK47s and M16s and the equally ubiquitous, shoulder-fired RPG launchers, which are coveted by thugs, bodyguards and nostalgics of every stamp) and the new hi-tech hardware destined for private armies and resistance groups, such as Hizbullah. Finally, while Lebanon is not an integral cog in the $30 billion global arms trade, some of its movers and shakers are Lebanese.

The law

Unless you have a permit, it is illegal to carry a non-hunting weapon about your person in Lebanon. This means anything from a Derringer to Stinger. A license can be obtained from the ministry of defense (although one issued by the Syrian ministry of defense gives the owner greater kudos) and, while there is no exact criteria laid down for who can get a permit under what circumstances, an applicant basically has to prove that the weapon is a matter of life and death for himself, his family or his business. Having the right connections can also work miracles.

Politicians often have a permit, as do diamond dealers, money runners, security personnel, bodyguards and, last but certainly not least, undercover law enforcement officers. To own a hunting rifle or shotgun a permit is required from the ministry of interior. To hunt however, requires a second permit, issued annually by the ministry of agriculture, even though hunting has been banned since 1995 after the UN laid down conditions for the donation of millions of dollars to establish a string of nature reserves in the country. Last January however, the law was changed, allowing hunting of certain species at certain times, although this law still has to be ratified. When it is, enforcement will be the responsibility of the ministry of environment.

Gun importers and agents need a permit from the ministry of interior to trade. Both importers and distributors need to satisfy the ministry of defense that they comply with all safety requirements concerning the storage of arms and ammunition, before the permit from the ministry of interior can be issued.

A-hunting we will go

The market for hunting guns is currently worth an estimated $1.5 to $2million. Business boomed just after the war, when peace allowed hunting enthusiasts to resume their old hobby. It was to be a short-lived reunion. The 1995 ban hit the sector hard, causing sales to drop by some 40% to 50% (one importer has sold 16,000 guns since 1993, half of which were sold before 1995).

There are 17 gun importers in Lebanon and some 260 shops selling hunting equipment, although most are quite small, located in the villages, and only offer a handful of guns and cartridges. This leaves around 50 medium to large outlets, which sell a wider range of hunting weapons (although many of these push the definition of “hunting” and would be equally suited to the streets of Fallujah than the mountains of Lebanon) as well as binoculars, camouflage jackets, tents, and boots. Prices of guns vary considerably. A quality shot gun, of say the Italian Beretta or Benelli, costs an average of $400 to $600, while you pay up to $6,000 for the top of the line models. As much as 90% of guns sold in Lebanon fall under the first category.

If you opt for a handmade, bespoke gun, expect to pay between $15,000 to $50,000. The Lebanese agent for Beretta recently sold a $16,000 gun to the Sultan of Bahrain, but this is small change when compared to those made by the British craftsmen of Holland & Holland and Purdey, whose antique models sell at auction for hundreds of thousands of dollars. On a recent trip to Iraq, however, one lucky Lebanese businessman picked up a pair of Holland & Holland rifles, worth around $40,000, for $7,000 from a cash strapped owner.

Handguns

Unlike the US, where a handgun – and even a machine gun – can be bought on nearly every block, the private sale of handguns in Lebanon is illegal. Supply is limited and demand among gun aficionados has pushed-up the price to roughly three times the normal market value. While in the US, an average Colt or Glock will cost you about $600, expect to pay around $2,000 in Lebanon. Silencers and other deeply desirable options – engraving etc. – come at an extra cost.

Lebanese collectors, unlike their counterparts in the Gulf, who like their guns plated with gold or encrusted with diamonds, generally opt for the original or “classic” models in mint condition. A small collection (say between 10 to 15 guns) can be worth as much as $30,000 to $40,000, but some local collectors have rooms with weapons worth nearly $1 million.

In the same way that a watch can be much more than just a timepiece, so too is a gun more than just a weapon to a collector. But like the man who wears a Casio digital, the gun enthusiast who wants a no-frills gun that will never let him down will buy a Browning. Developed originally in Belgium at the turn of the century, it has today become the standard issue for many armies and law enforcement agencies around the world. In Lebanon, a Browning 9mm can cost as little as $100.

Heavier items

During the Civil War, Lebanon was flooded with arms. The USA and Israel supplied the Christian militias. The Libyans, Saudis and other Arabs states armed the Palestinians and their leftist allies; Iraq came to aide of General Aoun, while Iran and Syria supplied Amal and Hizbullah. When the war ended, the Lebanese army impounded much of this huge stockpile, but a significant portion was sold on to other militias, especially in the Balkans, fighting their own civil wars.

Equally large numbers of small arms – M-16s and AK 47s – have been stashed away, part of the national paranoia that one day all hell would again break loose. Many found their way onto the open market. While an M-16 can cost up to $1,000 on the international market, in Lebanon it can be bought for as little as $400. AK47s, at $200, come even cheaper.

After the end of the Cold War, the market was flooded with surplus arms from both sides (it is these small arms – and the hugely unreliable but very spectacular RPGs – that are harassing the coalition forces in Iraq) but the really heavy stuff – tanks and artillery – came from the cash-strapped former communist countries of Eastern Europe. Today, you can buy a former East German tank for $40,000, while an RPG will not cost you more than $1,000. Hizbullah’s mortar and Katusha rocket systems have a price tag of several thousand of dollars.

Recently, a sizeable number of MP5K automatic machine guns have entered the Lebanese market from Iraq. This American-made weapon was used mainly by the Iraqi police and army and used to cost around $6,000 in Lebanon. Today, they can be picked up for $3,000. It is expected that many more weapons from the pre-war regime will flood the market in coming months and years, such are the huge stockpiles of conventional arms amassed by Saddam Hussein.

In any country the biggest spender on arms would normally be the army, and security services, but in Lebanon, most of the post-war budget goes on salaries and maintenance (the army’s 300 tanks are at least 30 years old) and no major investments have been made, although the US did sell the Lebanese government some old helicopters – the ones seen on parades and state visits – for bargain basement prices.

The international arms trade

According to Stockholm International Peace Institute, global military expenditure and arms trade form the largest spending in the world at over $950 billion annually, half of which is bankrolled by the US. By far the largest part is spent on operations, personnel and maintenance. The total value of global arms transfers between 1999 and 2002 was $139.8 billion, some 60% of which was paid by developing countries.

The bulk of the business is composed of highly expensive fighter jets, ships, submarines, tanks and other big items, which are sold mainly by and to governments. The world’s main producers are UN Security Council members, the USA, Russia, Britain, China and France, followed by Israel, South Africa and several smaller European countries. Private arms dealers generally supply the smaller arms, with which most wars are fought – rifles, machine guns, grenades, mortars and RPG launchers. There are an estimated 600 million small arms in circulation around the world, which cause an estimated 500,000 deaths every year.

Arms brokers come in handy when governments intend to sell weapons to clients that are considered too controversial – guerillas, revolutionaries and dictatorial regimes. One of the world’s most famous arms brokers is Lebanese: Sarkis Soghanalian (see box). According to London-based Jane’s Intelligence Review, the unofficial global trade is worth an estimated $2 billion to $10 billion depending on who is fighting whom. Arms dealers never work alone, so it is an open secret that despite the UN embargo, Germany supplied Croatia in the Balkan War, Russia armed Serbia, and Iran and the USA armed Bosnia.

The task of a private arms dealer is not only to guarantee that the weapons arrive and money is paid, but most of all, to ensure that the paper trail concerning the weapons’ origins cannot be traced back to the supplier. The deal is, therefore, executed by a string of shell companies and off-shore banks. Most essential, is that the broker knows how to obtain a so-called “end-user certificate,” which states that the arms will not be sold on to third parties. Bolivia is believed to be a major trade hub on the black market. Switzerland comes in handy on the financial side of deals and has traditionally regarded arms trade as just another business, while London, home to over 300 major dealers among whom several are Lebanese, is the trade capital of the world.

Sarkis Soghanalian

Born in 1939, this 150-kilo Lebanese of Armenian descent made his name and fortune during the Cold War, as the CIA’s main business partner. For two decades he was based in the USA, brokering all kinds of deals that broke official embargos. He started his trade by funneling weapons to Lebanon’s Christian militias, before supplying rebels in Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Argentina. He went on to arm Iraq under the reign of Saddam Hussein. He claims everything he did was with the knowledge of US government officials. He was briefly jailed after the Gulf War and is currently standing trial in absentia in Peru for supplying East German AK47s he had bought from Jordan to the Peruvian government, which eventually ended up in the hands of Columbian rebels.

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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Business

Making the connection

by Thomas Schellen September 1, 2004
written by Thomas Schellen

Achievers are keen to benchmark their performance and remain unafraid of comparing their accomplishments to the best. To measure the commercial success of Lebanon’s Internet Service Providers – the companies where speed, competitiveness, technological competence and service quality are crucial not only for their viability but for the entire online economy – with the aim of identifying the best performer on a national level is a task requiring the patience of a hero. ISPs themselves say they don’t know the exact size of either the legal residential or the corporate market and are unable to declare their market shares. Against this background of opacity, it is important to ask where Lebanon stands today in internet access by international and regional standards. But the answers are not pretty. According to consensus among providers, internet penetration of households this year amounts to 80,000 or so legal subscribers and anywhere between 50,000 and 100,000 illegal connections supplied by unlicensed wireless operators. In 2001, the numbers of legal subscribers were actually higher. In terms of adaptation of successful business models and new technologies, ISPs here five years ago were able to point to the Lebanese market’s edge over other countries in the region, which moved slowly and were mostly hesitant to reluctant in opening to the internet, socially as well as technically. “Lebanon was the most advanced country in the area in telecommunications. It is a shame to see where we stand today,” said Bassam Jaber, general manager of ISP Cyberia. The downward trend was spawned by a combination of reasons, from the deterioration of consumer purchasing power to high governmental charges for bandwidth and illegal competition that so far could not be erased. Efforts by the government to introduce lower rates for consumers linking per dial-up phone lines to ISPs and cut off unlicensed operators of cable internet helped but were not enough to turn the tide, Jaber said, even as the Lebanese people are still looking for connections to the internet. But ISPs continue to pay the ministry of telecommunications about $20,000 per month for a standard E1 connection of two Mbps, which elsewhere costs a fraction of that. In his opinion, the ministry is not blocking developments but things are moving just too slowly. This has created a paradoxical and unhealthy situation where Lebanese internet providers are showing only abroad what they are really capable of. “We need to be leaders in Lebanon before we can be leaders outside,” Jaber said. “Today, the situation is the opposite. We are leaders outside.” Simplified, the Cyberia ISP brand operates profitably in Jordan and Saudi Arabia – but scrapes by in Lebanon.

To understand the real abysmal picture of Lebanon’s internet penetration, one need only try ranking it against South Korea, the world’s leading nation in broadband connectivity in 2004. The government in Seoul announced last month that the country had achieved more than 30 million internet users – 30.6 million, to be precise. That’s 68.2 % internet penetration in a country that recently surprised us mostly through its enthusiasm for football. The Korean government offered a breakdown of their national figures into detailed analyses of usage preferences, age structures and form of connectivity. According to its statistics, 95.5% of youth between the ages of six and 19, and even 58.3% of people in their 40s go online regularly. As the Korean government followed through on its decision to support a digital society with participation by all, digital subscriber line and cable modem broadband services were used by over 95% of internet users and the average Korean spent 11.5 hours per week surfing the web, with online shopping, gaming, chatting and information searches being key activities.

Compare that to Lebanon’s most optimistic estimates of 250,000 users and well below 10% internet penetration rate, without broadband links in households and no analytical dissection of usage structures whatsoever put forth by the government. Remember also that commercial internet started within the past ten years in both countries. In 1997, when Korea had a mere one million internet users, penetration rates in Korea and Lebanon were not so incredibly far apart. To name what can be known about the structure of the Lebanese market, it is served by five ISPs, two of which specialized in recent years on providing only corporate services. This provider segmentation settled basically into the current shape in 2002 when two early-hour ISPs, Inconet and Data Management merged into IDM, which claims a strong position in both corporate and dial-up consumer markets (the latter largely on account of providing the internet service to the market segment of Banque Audi internet account holders). Cyberia, also an early entrant to the access game, placed their opening bets on the consumer market where they attempted in 2000 to pioneer the provision of proprietary news and information content but aborted the costly project due to lacking commercial viability. Their strength today lies mainly in the dial-up market. Terranet, the third ISP active in consumer dial-up, came onto the market as towards the end of the 90s and could expand their position quite speedily based on technological advantages. Fiberlink Networks launched initially as a consumer-oriented service under the brand name Lynx but refocused soon on the corporate segment where it reached a strong position, working for a limited period under the identity of PSI, a US-based group with high-flying ambitions. Fiberlink is planning to re-introduce consumer services under the Lynx brand. The provider segment is completed by Sodetel, a company that set out as a management and maintenance firm for a 1960s undersea communications cable linking Beirut to Marseille. The firm, established in equal parts by the Lebanese government and France Telecom, is viewed as a smaller player in the corporate market. The players are familiar with each other and – after terminating an unsustainable price war in 1999 and 2000, during which retail customer numbers soared but ISPs sold access massively below cost – have in recent years moved with remarkable harmony on the dial-up price front. Nonetheless, the commercial ISPs today guard their client counts and market share information with such envy that the possibility of future new position fights appears difficult to exclude. As the providers conceal their numbers and the MOT neither commissions research firms to monitor internet penetration and online demographics nor publishes its own figures on the size and development of registered corporate networks, it is hard to precisely evaluate the evolution of the sector – hard for outside analysts and apparently even for the companies. What all providers do agree on is that business so far has not been easy. “It is always difficult. Even with our strong teams in tech and sales, 2004 hasn’t been easy,” said IDM commercial manager, Zakie Karam. According to Jaber, the dial-up consumer segment is characterized in high fluctuation rates among retail customers who jump from one provider to the other. By maintaining their e-mail accounts with any of the big global providers – yahoo!, hotmail, et al – a large portion of users need a local ISP solely for access services and switch readily between them. As the provision of dial-up services is only marginally profitable per account and economies of scales are unachievable under conditions of high costs and competition from gray operators, the companies for the moment seem content with maintaining this status quo and hardly have reasons to invest much in retail expansion or loyalty building among dial-up customers. “Cyberia is well known, so why advertise today when there is an illegal market,” Jaber argued.

The corporate segment, where client relationships are stable and an account generates from $400 to $500 per month upwards in revenue, has been more attractive to the ISPs and the sector achieved more growth here than in the consumer market, probably as much as 500% over the past five years. In the estimate of Fiberlink general manager Imad Tarabay, the corporate market nonetheless does not contain more than 800 active accounts, equivalent to 8% of the about 10,000 firms registered with the VAT system. Thus the players are plowing on, with moderate efforts in retail marketing, deployment of technologies and broadening of services. One such positive innovation was the launch of a public internet access system with wireless hotspots at Beirut Airport earlier this year. IDM, which won a tender to establish the airport network, experienced smooth sailing of the service and saw usage increases of 50% during the summer travel season. IDM is pressing forward this year with the establishment of hotspots. According to Karam, by the end of the year, 25 such wireless access zones are scheduled to be operational in places such as the coffee house outlets of Starbucks and Tribeca, the Roadster diners, and the Riviera and Mayflower hotels, letting 2004 see the first wave of wireless rollouts in public places. By experiences from the recent past and under existing circumstances, however, the corporate market is the main candidate for creation of meaningful new impulses in breaking the slump of the past few years and deploying new online capacities in Lebanon. Connectivity growth could start with the provision of more powerful corporate intranet services, and if things go as one player envisions, it is starting just about now. This would come through a new company under leadership of Fiberlink’s Tarabay. Called Cedarcom, it is geared to serve business organizations with the need for intranet communications between several locations as well as provide last mile services for ISPs and similar clients. Cedarcom is one of four firms (plus Ogero) licensed by the MOT for operation of legal wireless or cable networks within Lebanon, paying this privilege with an annual fee of $65,000 and the obligation to transfer 20% of revenue to the ministry. The seven-year-old Cedarcom had been acquired by Tarabay and his partners in the spring of 2003 and re-started commercial operations in May of this year. By end of September, the network will reach full coverage of Lebanon’s major population centers, including the Bekaa. Marketing activities are rolling from the beginning of this month, with a launch event at the Termium fair. What makes this firm remarkable is that its commercial launch marks the introduction of an important new technology in the Middle East – namely, the wireless Multi Protocol Labeled Switching (MPLS), which was developed by Cisco Systems. Creation of the network required investments of nearly $5 million, of which 70% was needed to achieve national coverage and will contribute less than 20% to revenue. But although expensive, national coverage is indispensable for Cedarcom’s ability to attract important clients who can budget something like $10,000 per month to interconnect 20 branches to their headquarters. In the existing market, Tarabay sees banks, with their mandatory intranet linkage of all branches, as the main clientele of Cedarcom, which will be able to offer more services for lower fees. While a multi-branch client per location typically pays $500 in Beirut to $700 outside of the metro area for a 64 Kbps capacity, Cedarcom rushes in with 512 Kbps lines at a charge starting slightly above $400. With this much power to offer, the company swept all contracts it bid for during the past three months, Tarabay claimed, even if competitors positioned their bids below their usual rates. But the existing market is not the real potential. At an estimated 1,500 client units (almost 900 of them bank branches), Tarabay estimates this corporate intranet business to be worth “$7 million or $8 million, not more.” This market could grow fourfold in size over the coming two years, he believes, if the government finally takes the two steps of establishing the Telecoms Regulatory Authority and lowering the connectivity charges. Costs of bandwidth for companies could be cut in half under those conditions, opening the market to a large number of midsized multi-office businesses. After many political delays, Tarabay sees the issuance of the laws and decrees that will make the 2002 telecommunications law fully applicable happening in the near future, probably after the presidential elections. After that, things would really take off. “We over dimensioned our network, because we will start feeling the growth,” he said.

Such a development of the corporate market is meaningful, because it could finally spell the beginning of affordable broadband provision to private homes, by which growth of data network and internet penetration in Lebanon would evolve hand in hand, enabling the country to eventually catch up and close the internet gap between, at least, other Middle Eastern countries. The providers, although few in number, certainly seem ready, eager and willing for a second birth of Lebanon’s digital society. The old vigor of the sector’s days as regional pioneers and service innovators has not vanished, it only rests beneath the tired faces of the small provider community, Jaber said. “When we started we did not have the same problems as we have today. But we still have the same spirit that we had then.”

September 1, 2004 0 comments
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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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