Society

Year of the bargain

by Nabila Rahhal
written by Nabila Rahhal

“The dropping numbers of tourists, the decline in the country’s financial inflows and the plunging consumer confidence have placed the Lebanese fashion retailers in a critical situation,” says Jamal Rayess, general manager of Hamra Shopping and Trading Company. “Confronted with these challenges, we were compelled as usual to think outside the box and improvise ways to counter the rising difficulties.” With these words, Rayess effectively summed up the state of retail in Lebanon in 2012.

Fewer tourists to buy

The third quarter of the year, the peak of the summer season, was when the retail sector was hit the hardest with the significant decrease in tourist numbers, following Arab countries warning their citizens not to visit Lebanon. This was evident first by the deep drop in the percentages of visitors reclaiming their value-added tax upon their departure from Lebanon, as the numbers from Global Blue indicate. Also, the latest numbers from the Lebanese Traders Association-Fransabank index indicate that retail activity dropped 8.5 percent compared to the same period in 2011.

The report attributed this drop to: “…the apparent decrease in purchasing power and to the high reliance of the Lebanese economy on Gulf tourists’ spending who were absent from Lebanon in this quarter due to the regional and internal turmoil.”

“For the retail sector in Lebanon, 2012 was not a good year,” says Mher Atamian, manager of Atamian Group, a distributor and seller of luxury brand watches and jewelry. “There are areas which witnessed a steeper decline in activity and sales than others, especially those which somehow depend on tourism such as Downtown Beirut or Verdun.” He adds that areas catering more to the Lebanese, such as the malls in Dbayeh, performed better this year.

Local unrest

Any hopes of making up for those lost tourists and expats during the Adha holidays were dashed by the bombing in Ashrafieh and subsequent events that kept would-be tourists away. “The bombing right before Adha ruined our hopes for an increase in activity during this period,” says Sophia Salem, owner of Sophie’s Choice, a fashion boutique and café concept in Beirut Souks. “With the high rents we have to pay in Downtown, we need all the activity we can get and instead we have demonstrations occurring right next to our businesses. People have the right to protest for what they believe in, of course, but Lebanese in general should be more aware and act more responsibly.”

Said Daher, chief executive of Azadea Group, owner and operator of leading international franchise retail concepts in the Middle East and North Africa region, says its stores in Lebanon “were doing well until the explosion in Ashrafieh… when business became slow.” 

“We are hoping for a recovery [over] Christmas and New Year’s,” he says.

The sporadic turmoil around other parts of the country was another factor negatively influencing the retail sector in 2012. Daher explains: “Our stores in the north and in Saida were unfortunately impacted by the tensions there. But we always have challenges, and I believe that at the end the market migrates.” Atamian added that areas such as Tripoli and the Bekaa, where the conflicts in Syria spilled over internally, saw business being affected even more than Beirut.

Diluted purchasing power

Not all shoppers were equally daunted by the crisis. “Despite the events of the year, we… are still doing quite good overall compared to other companies in the retail business,” says Atamian. “The high-end consumers were less affected than the mid-segment, as those with a high purchasing power were still affording and buying their luxury brands.”

Hassan Moustapha, Vertu regional manager of Middle East and Africa, also speaks of those with high purchasing power, saying: “The growth we saw this year was mainly fueled by the increased demand for our signature line of smart phones — valued at $13,000 — from visiting expats residing in the Gulf.”

However, Daher, whose brands of clothing stores mainly cater to mid-range shoppers, says they still performed well. “Before opening Le Mall Dbayeh we had no decline in our year-to-date comparative sales between 2011 and 2012. Compared to others in retail, we were not as affected by the events of the year,” says Daher, adding that Le Mall Dbayeh’s opening cannibalized business from their other stores, creating internal competition. 

“This year everything became more expensive as people’s purchasing powers decreased,” explains Imad Shakker, owner of Bellio store in Mar Elias and wholesale importer of Turkish fashion items. “Therefore, the medium to high-end shopper saw she could no longer afford to buy those high costing items and had to buy from less expensive stores. Stores like mine benefit from this as we are affordable.”

Retail’s hard knocks

While Beirut still maintains its reputation as a trend-setter for fashion in the region, other Arab cities are surpassing it in terms of sales and activities.

“Our stores in the region are performing better than the ones in Lebanon. The Emirates benefited greatly from the turmoil in the region as it saw an increase in tourists and in retail sales,” says Daher. “It doesn’t mean we are complaining about business versus 2011, but I know for a fact that in Lebanon the entire retail industry should be doing better.” 

Salem acknowledges that 2012 has been a harsh year for Lebanon in retail terms, but believes the year’s damages can be somehow minimized if the Lebanese are more aware and think of their country first. “The number of Arab tourists decreased significantly this summer and the retail sector suffered from this loss of revenues, but we have to deal with it and move on,” she says. “The more aware and responsible Lebanese are, the more we will be able to have some damage control.”

 

And yet stores still open

Despite everything, this year witnessed the opening of two major malls on Dbayeh highway. “We are opening ABC Dbayeh in quite challenging conditions, but this is Lebanon, and if you want to wait for five years of stability, you will probably never start a new project,” said Robert Fadel, owner of ABC, in a July interview with Executive, before ABC Dbayeh’s grand opening.

International brands also carried on with their strategic plans despite the crisis, with Montblanc expanding into Verdun with a three-story boutique, and Armani Store launching its first complete outlet in Lebanon in the shopping area downtown.

“We believe Lebanon is the perfect entry point for our brand in the Middle East because the Lebanese man is very aware of his appearance, is well traveled and appreciative of superior quality products,” says Nadim Chammas, chief executive of Menawear, distributor of Slowear in the MENA region, adding that though they certainly had concerns regarding opening their boutique store in Downtown in September, they decided to move on with their plans because they had confidence in their brand and in the market itself.

Looking to 2013

In such conditions, talking about the future becomes difficult as so much is uncertain. “Planning in Lebanon has become very difficult,” according to Atamian. “All our brands expect plans and targets from us for next year and the reality is that plans are meaningless when one political incident can alter your course. Realistically, we expect 2013 to be the same as 2012.”

Yet those interviewed are continuing with planning for their companies’ growth in 2013, seeing this as the only recourse they can take.

“For 2013, we will continue relying on our longstanding experience as well as our internal strategies for the development of our luxury division,” says Simone Jean Tamer, member of the board at Tamer Frères. “Keeping the crisis in mind, we will continue investing professionally regarddless of what happens around us.”

Others, such as Grand Store’s Rayess, advise those in retail to be innovative and embrace the opportunities offered by social media platforms to attract clients who are now “more careful about the purchases they make.” He also suggests e-commerce as a strategic way for retailers to expand their client base.

Although admitting that 2013 will not be an easy year for retail, Slowear’s Chammas sees the planned openings of more malls in and around Beirut as a positive sign which will hopefully bring some dynamism to the sector.

Daher sums up the retail industry’s forecasts for 2013 by saying, “It is challenging, and I am not that optimistic, but we have to have hope for the future.”

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Society

Nicholas Chammas assesses 2012

by Nabila Rahhal
written by Nabila Rahhal

In September, Executive sat down with Nicholas Chammas, head of the Lebanese Traders Association (LTA), to discuss the retail sector’s weak performance following the events this summer, from the warnings against travel to Lebanon by Gulf states, to the kidnappings of foreign visitors and the closures of the airport. Given all this, it was no surprise that the LTA was warning of a major crisis should the situation persist. For our end-of-year issue, Executive sat down with Chammas again to see what, if anything, had changed since our     last meeting. 

Since our last chat with you, the third quarter index has come out. What can you tell us about that?

The third quarter of 2012, in comparison with 2011, saw a drop of 8.5 percent in the LTA-Fransabank retail index. All sectors have been affected but in different proportions. Durable goods [such as electronics and furniture] saw a steeper decline than basic goods [such as clothes, school items, food and drink]… as they are more expensive and are one-off items, while the others are basic staples and everyday consumptions which cannot be really postponed or compressed. 

In fact, the only commodity whose purchasing percentages went up was fuel and oil [up 7 percent], because there is elasticity between the price and demand: when the price falls, the demand increases and this is what happened. Were it not for this, we would have had a double-digit drop in commercial activity. 

How do you see the rest of the year playing out?

We usually have four high points on the trade calendar: the summer season, the Adha holiday period, the Eid al-Fitr holiday period and the Christmas period. This year, three of these points were hit. 

As for the Christmas holiday period, things don’t look good so far because of regional and local tensions. Already half of the fourth quarter has been lost or wasted because of the assassination of Brigadier General Wissam al-Hassan [in October]. We are left with six weeks and if we extrapolate from an earlier period, I am not too optimistic. I hope for the best but fear the worst. If, God forbid, something negative happens in that period, then all will be lost and it will be one of the worst years for the retail sector since the [civil] war ended.

In 2013, the Beirut City Centre Mall will be opening its doors, as well as other malls outside of Beirut, such as the Cascada Mall in Bekaa. Do you think this will return some activity to the sector?

We hope so, but this is on the offer side, which is already dynamic. The offer is there, we have an oversupply even, but we need the other side of the equation, which is the demand. Once it’s there, there is no problem. The local demand is not nearly enough for the expanded offer that we have so we need the expats and the tourists. 

What do you see for the retail sector in 2013? 

There are three segments in the market, the Lebanese locals, the Lebanese expatriates and the Arab tourists, which are represented by a three-legged stool. One leg of the stool, the Arab tourists, has been lost. The second leg, the expats, has been coming more timidly to the country. So the country cannot survive without the three legs.

As for the Lebanese locals, as our report shows, there is shyness in spending and a drop in the purchasing power and disposable income of the Lebanese. So, this is why it is has been so tough. Here we need improvement across the board. We need stability and peace of mind for consumers to come back to Lebanon and spend. 

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Business

Q&A – Saad Andary

by Maya Sioufi
written by Maya Sioufi

The public sector’s support for entrepreneurship in Lebanon has largely been timid. One public institution that is trying to be active and encourage the country’s enterprising youth is Banque du Liban (BDL), Lebanon’s central bank. BDL has been organizing conferences and launched an online platform in 2011 dedicated to entrepreneurs, but it has failed to gain momentum so far. Saad Andary, vice-governor of Lebanon’s central bank, says BDL has not given up, however, as fostering young talent is essential for the local economy. Executive sat with Andary to discuss BDL’s support for Lebanese talent. 

How will supporting entrepreneurs in Lebanon help spur the local economy?

Lebanon is a mercantile economy and it cannot continue forever like this because we are shedding a lot of talent year in, year out, as we can’t find them jobs. I am trying to reinvent the economy. What we can do here is build on the potential strengths of the economy, that we are a service-based society with human resources, a number of first-class universities and first-class academics. There is a mismatching in human resources so we have to build an economy that matches the talent, since it already exists. The economy should provide jobs for these talents, in medicine, educational services and financial services; in other words, in knowledge-based sectors. 

What is the aim of the online entrepreneurs’ platform launched by the central bank?

We started working on the platform in 2009 and it was launched in 2011. Our aim is to get people to talk to each other. We are working on it. It is not gaining enough momentum though. We are currently speaking to entrepreneurs to help us revamp and redirect the website. We are doing things that are not the norm, not the way the government would expect you to behave. 

Why is the central bank taking the initiative to support entrepreneurs in Lebanon?

As the central bank, it is not our mandate to do this. There is no evidence on the entrepreneurs’ platform that the central bank is behind it. We are the invisible hand that is motivating people to work because it will alienate people in high offices and in the ministries that the central bank is doing things they should be doing and have not bothered to do all these years. I used to go to them [to request their support] but they said they did not have the budget for it. 

What is the central bank doing to help entrepreneurs secure funding?

Young people are always confronted with difficulty in finding funds. Banks won’t fund startups. They fund you if you have already started up, are already established and have guarantees and collateral. So we have to work on creating a capital market capable of providing equity financing, not just debt financing. We have a new financial market authority that has been instituted recently, presided over by the governor of the central bank [Riad Salameh] but it is still early days. Meanwhile, we are working on a project with the World Bank for equity funding. If you go to people who have equity in times of insecurity, they will hold back from deploying their capital. We have to start somewhere so we negotiated with the World Bank for a $30 million loan, which we will transform into equity. 

Where do you stand on the launch of this fund?

We are finalizing it now. It needs approval by Parliament and maybe should be ready in a couple of months. The fund will invest in Lebanese talent in a knowledge-based sector with up to $500,000 per project. Kafalat [the government institution supporting small and medium enterprises in Lebanon by providing loan guarantees] will run it through a holding company. We think it is original and exciting and if we succeed, we can replicate it in the region. 

What do you want from the government?

Before 2009, there was no entrepreneurship ecosystem. Many Lebanese came back from Silicon Valley, from London, from all over and found that the ecosystem is beginning to fall in place. What encouraged them to come back? I don’t know. Maybe our website? Your articles? I am hopeful. You can feel the buzz around you, the energy. We are trying to direct the energy, hopefully with the support of the government, but we don’t want direct intervention from the government nor do we want money or budgetary funds. We just want support to provide such or such a service. 

Do you expect the long overdue electronic signature draft law to pass soon? 

This law is ready. It is in Parliament now in its final stages. It is being discussed in committees… and should be implemented soon. 

How about other laws such as the competition law, also essential to be passed to support entrepreneurs in Lebanon?  

I think what is more essential than the passing of laws is the Investment Development Authority of Lebanon (IDAL) playing a more pivotal role. Ideally we should not be seen doing any of the [aforementioned] things that we have done. It should be the role of IDAL, but they have not done what their equivalent in Turkey has done. IDAL should have a vision and should be the focal point for all investors that are in Lebanon or coming into Lebanon. The prime minister and his office should support it directly; similar to what is done in Turkey. When encountering problems to bring in investments, IDAL could circumvent the red tape confronted when working with a number of ministers, because who is the head of the ministries? The prime minister, and he is best placed to solve any problems that might pop up. 

How about universities — what can they do to support the entrepreneurship ecosystem?

At the conferences we organized for entrepreneurs, we used to invite universities and we were happy to see that universities built on ideas that we discussed. The École Supérieure des Affaires started offering a masters [degree] in entrepreneurship. The dean of business at the Beirut Arab University implemented an institute for entrepreneurs. The American University of Beirut launched a center. 

What is needed for a startup to succeed in Lebanon?  

You need two things to succeed in Lebanon: one is to have an idea that could work and survive in Lebanon, and the other is for the company to operate in international markets. Lebanon is too small to survive on its own; that’s why its youth are struggling. 

What advice would you give to entrepreneurs in Lebanon? 

My advice is that we have to get started, not to waste time thinking about impediments. Get started, plunge in, feel the pain. If you fail, try again. Go for it. 

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Economics & Policy

Downsizing on the dollar

by Paul Cochrane
written by Paul Cochrane

It has been a year most car dealerships would not like to see repeated. The economic downturn, inflation, high gas prices and political uncertainty have taken their toll on sales, with only a handful of dealers meeting, yet alone surpassing, their sales projections. In short, the automotive sector is yet another segment of the Lebanese economy that can be considered to be in ‘crisis mode’.

At first glance there would seem little cause for concern, with sales stronger than last year’s. In the first four months of 2012, 10,169 new passenger cars were sold, an increase of 12 percent on the same period in 2011, according to figures from the Automobile Importers Association (AIA). While sales slowed down over the summer, by the end of August sales were still up, by 7.6 percent on 2011, and up 2.1 percent on 2010, indicating that unit sales in 2012 would reach the benchmark figure set in 2008 of more than 30,000 new cars sold in one year. As of the end of October, overall sales had reached 29,198 units, up 6.28 percent on the previous year.

“Overall sales of new cars are very close to last year in terms of volume, although it’s not real growth,” said Nabil Bazerji, dealer for Suzuki, Lancia and Maserati, given that these statistics are for volumes, not turnover or dealership profits.

And it is turnover that is giving dealers headaches when they crunch the numbers, as 2012 has proved for the fourth year running that Lebanese are increasingly opting for small cars, with cars under $11,000 now accounting for an estimated 90 percent of all sales according to the AIA. This is important as, while selling a car is arguably, well, selling a car, the difference in margins between a vehicle with a $10,000 price tag and one twice or treble the price is huge, being around just $500 for a compact model; when you consider a dealership’s overheads, advertising campaigns and so on, that profit disappears about as fast as a liter of gas in a Hummer. As one dealer remarked off-the-record, “A mobile phone retailer has a higher margin on a mobile than we do on compact models.”

So, while volumes may be marginally better than last year, it is the smaller cars that are propping up the figures and making the sector seem falsely buoyant.
“There is a crisis when the market is up 6 percent but the luxury sector is down by over 10 percent,” said Pierre Heneine, financial manager at Bassoul-Heneine, dealer for Renault and Dacia. “Consumer confidence has been down for the past two to three years, and is down every month; why would you buy a luxury car?”

Unsurprisingly then, it is the brands with compact models that are having the best sales, and this has resulted in a kind of oligopoly, with seven brands accounting for three-quarters of sales, despite 70 brands being available on the market. Kia, Hyundai and Nissan are the top three sellers, with the Koreans brands accounting for 45.1 percent of the market and Nissan with 15.9 percent, followed by Toyota, Chevrolet, Renault and Volkswagen with a collective 15.46 percent.

“The Koreans have taken over the Toyota empire. Elsewhere in the world Koreans have risen, but they haven’t taken the same share like here,” said Marwan Naffi, general manager of Gabriel Abou Adal and Partners, distributor of Volvo. Kia has 27.2 percent of the Lebanese market, with 7,962 units sold as of the end of October, making Lebanon the only country in the world where Kia is the top-selling brand. Hyundai trails close behind with 17.91 percent of the market, at 5,230 units sold. For Renault, it has been “their best year since 1975,” said Heneine, with sales up 9.67 percent, with 1,066 units sold, and Dacia up 23.81 percent, with 338 cars sold.

Chinese brands have also had a bumper year, up 85 percent on 2011 with 308 cars sold, although accounting for just 1.18 percent of the market. Geely, which entered the market in June and is represented by Rasamny Automotive Industries — also the dealer for Hyundai — sold 143 cars in less than three months, signaling strong demand for low-priced models and raising questions whether Chinese brands could, in the near future, be the next usurper after the Koreans. After all, it was European car designers that turned around Korean brands, and Geely, for instance, has acquired Volvo, from which it is expected to benefit from Swedish design and technology expertise.

A perfect market

The dearth of public transport has driven demand for small vehicles as city run-arounds, and the transport ministry’s plan to introduce 250 public buses in the near future is not likely to dent sales of compacts until a more nationwide plan is, if ever, implemented. High fuel prices are pushing compact sales further, averaging more than $20 for 20 liters this year, and this has also had an impact on used car sales, down 17 percent on 2011 as of September, a trend compounded by dealerships pushing three to five-year warranties and service deals on new wheels. “People are asking about fuel efficiency. With the minimum wage $500 a month, people have no choice but to opt for a small car,” said Dayala Dagher, Natco, distributor of Kia.

There may also be a correlation between the surge in sales of compact cars, the drop in used cars sales and the loss of cheap smuggled fuel from Syria due to the conflict there, a supply loss which has been offset by Lebanon’s imports of oil and mineral fuels surging 89 percent in the first half of the year relative to 2011, to $3.2 billion, according to Bank Byblos data.

 

Losing the middle ground

Dampened economic sentiment in general has clearly impacted car sales, certainly in the above-$20,000 price bracket, and it has been a bad year for luxury car sales. “There is a crisis in the automotive sector and it is affecting the mid-class car segment, at $25,000 to $90,000, which was the core of the business,” said Bazerji. “Does it mean the middle class is poorer? If so, it is very dangerous for the economy of the country.”

The former cars of choice for Lebanese, German luxury brands such as BMW and Mercedes, while still enjoying relatively good sales, have seen sales of used models plummet; consumers are not just downgrading to cheaper Korean compact models, but sedans and sports models as well.

“Kia can now not be viewed as solely low cost, as people are upping their budgets. Before it was only $10,000 for a Kia, now it is $20,000 to $40,000 plus,” said Dagher. “And mentalities are changing. Former Peugeot, VW and BMW drivers are now switching to Kia as the quality and design has improved.”
In a market where dealers are seeking just a slither of a pie dominated by seven brands, this has resulted in price wars between mid-range and luxury brands, even to the detriment of brand equity. “There is competition in the luxury segment and it is affecting margins. And when a car sells for $55,000 and is then reduced to $38,000, what happens to the resale value and the brand equity?” said Cesar Aoun, general manager of Gargour and Fils, distributor of Mercedes, Smart, Jeep, Chrysler and Dodge. “The other school says ‘introduce the new model at $55,000 and then increase the price, as the customer will be happier as it is more of an investment’. It is like Rolex’s policy to increase prices by 10 to 15 percent every year, and why their watches still have value.”

Sales of Mercedes are down 7.95 percent, as of October, on the previous year, with 567 units sold in 2012, and Jaguar sales are down 18.8 percent, although BMW sales are up 43 percent on last year, to 567 units, attributed primarily to the release of the new 3 Series models.

In commercial sales, it has not been as bad a year as for passenger cars, with sales up 9.29 percent on 2011, from 1,743 units to 1,905 units. Renault-Dacia is this year’s number one in this segment, collaring 23 percent of the market.
Over in the rental sector, things have been far from rosy, due to a dearth of tourists. “It was killer this summer, with no business with rental companies whereas usually it’s a boost,” said Farid Homsi, general manager of IMPEX, distributor for GM, Chevrolet, Cadillac, Hummer and Isuzu.

No-show motor show

In such a downbeat environment, dealers were putting their hopes on a successful Beirut Motor Show in November to raise the sector’s profile, sell more units and offset a lackluster summer. But at a time when the dealers needed every boost they could get, it was decided in September to cancel the show due to political instability. The move has been criticized by dealerships, and some members of the AIA internally conceded in early October that the decision was perhaps not the right one.

“The downturn could’ve been countered if the motor show had not been canceled,” said Bazerji. “My point of view is it was a big mistake. Not only a mistake, a shame because we are not respecting an agenda of having this show every two years. When you’ve an agenda you follow it, whether it is a success or a flop.”

He added that, “Unfortunately the 2010 motor show was 6 years behind the last one, and while I accept 2006 was canceled, a force majeur, but other cancellations? …It is in a period of crisis that a motor show would be of use to the sector.”

Abou Adal’s Naffi also thinks it was a bad idea to cancel in the current doom and gloom. “It was a very bad idea not have the show, as it was needed to change the mood of the people,” he said. “The public have 1,001 things to worry about so we should’ve had the motor show as it would have changed the situation for 10 days and given us a strong sales hook, as the show has the highest traffic of all exhibitions in Lebanon with over 100,000 visitors.”
But other dealers think the costs of being at the show were economically unjustifiable and worth canceling. “In the two months leading up to the show everyone is waiting for it, so people don’t buy, and for two months afterwards you sell, maybe 3 to 5 percent more, but it is expensive to be there,” said Heneine.

“October started well but definitely since the assassination [of intelligence chief Wissam al-Hassan] things have been pretty slow,” said Homsi. “You feel consumers are a bit uncomfortable; we’ve had many potential buyers postpone.  October’s sales were down by 2.21 percent on the same month in 2011, with European and Japanese brands particularly feeling the downturn, slumping by 2.97 percent and 19.63 percent respectively on October 2011.
“You can’t forecast the rest of the year and the market is very much day-to-day,” said Homsi. “I think the last few months of the year will not be that easy and the figures will not be that strong.

Rough roads ahead

The outlook for next year is as unpredictable as sales for the last two months of the year, and there is no crystal ball into which dealers can look. The AIA has projected that the number of imported and registered new and used cars will have dropped to 70,000 in 2012, from 74,000 units in 2011, and 92,000 units in 2010.

“This market is unpredictable,” said Bazerji. “If the situation doesn’t deteriorate further, 2013 will be equal to this year, but it is directly linked to politics and the regional situation.” However, the economic forecast for next year is not overly promising, and there is also not likely to be a fall in oil prices. This is likely to ensure continued strong sales of smaller vehicles and the further marginalization of brands that don’t have compact cars in their line-ups. Dealers are, however, upping marketing campaigns, offering special deals, and opening new showrooms to encourage potential buyers to stop sitting on their wallets.
Dealers are also forecasting that the current market dominance by the Koreans will fade, especially if the Korean won appreciates relative to the Japanese yen. “I think the market is cyclical, and over the next four years people will move back to the European and Japanese heritage brands,” said Heneine. “And I think the trend for buying new small cars will lead to consumers shifting upwards to new, mid-range cars in the B and C segments, between $15,000 to $17,000. But for this to happen we need stability in the country and more consumer confidence.”

In the meantime, dealerships are opposed to a government plan to reintroduce diesel passenger cars, not only because of health hazards — the World Health Organization recently listed diesel as a carcinogen — but also due to the havoc caused in the market when the state changed diesel laws a decade ago, which dealers do not want to see repeated.  Dealerships are even more opposed to a plan to raise value added tax (VAT) by 50 percent on imported cars, from 10 percent to 15 percent. According to the AIA, this will lead to a 30 percent drop in car sales and an aggregate drop of $182 million in government revenues from customs duties, VAT and car registration fees. While the government estimates the VAT rise will lead to an additional $60 million in related tax revenues from imported cars, the AIA estimates that the net loss in government revenues from the VAT rise will reach $122 million in 2013.

“It is the wrong time to do this. The luxury market is down by 10 percent, so if VAT is increased by 50 percent it will completely kill the premium and luxury market,” said Heneine. “If VAT increases, we will have to think about our future strategies, and we won’t be hiring anymore staff.”

Instead of imposing the tax, the AIA is calling for the government to enforce the collection of unpaid road-usage fees, which are estimated at $56 million a year. According to the AIA, 829,000 registered cars, or 64 percent of total registered cars in Lebanon, pay road tax every year while 36 percent, or 467,000 registered cars, do not.

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Economics & Policy

A cold, harsh year

by Zak Brophy
written by Zak Brophy

It was never going to be an easy year for Lebanon. The economy entered 2012 with the International Monetary Fund pegging growth at only 1.5 percent for the previous year, war and economic crisis flanked the country, and among the only indicators rising in the face of falling growth was inflation.

Now as the year draws to a close and we survey the prospect for 2013 there is little reason to cheer; the economy is most likely slumped in stagflation, Syria boils more violently than ever and Lebanon’s politicians have effectively squashed hopes of meaningful reform and leadership from parliament.
One event that was lauded as a success was the cabinet’s passing of a new budget. Admittedly, in most countries this is considered a bare minimum the citizens can expect from their elected leaders, but in Lebanon is has become something of an exceptional occurrence.

Since the political crisis that descended in 2006, the government has not passed a budget and as such the nation is suspended in a state of “continual illegality”, according to legal attorney and lecturer in constitutional law, Wassim Manssouri. Of course this government and its predecessors haven’t stopped spending, far from it, but rather they have racked up more than $20 billion (over LL30 trillion) in extra-budgetary expenses.

When the cabinet actually managed to agree on a budget there was a fair amount of backslapping and self-congratulation. However, the felicitations were premature and unjustified. The budget had been sheared of any of the meaningful reforms or progressive initiatives that had been included in a previous draft, and what is more, although the cabinet agreed on the budget and passed it on to Parliament, it has since been stuck in the legislative mud.

Debating and agreeing upon a fiscal plan for the nation is not a priority, it would seem. For those among us that actually want to analyze the details, as that is surely where the devil lies, the budget is too vague and opaque. “The structure of the budget does not have the transparency we need in order to see how the budget for each sector is outlined,” explains Yahya Hakim, member of the Lebanese Transparency Association. “Even in the commissions they don’t discuss the individual chapters of the budget and the deputies have no clue how it is prepared.”

The ludicrous failings of Lebanon’s lawmakers to enact a budget for more than six years leaves little room for hope that they will enact the comprehensive reforms that the economy actually needs. “We need to go through a complete administrative and financial reform,” argues Hakim. “If we don’t we will never get anywhere and we will continue to just turn in circles.”

The last real effort to enact such reforms was under the leadership of President Fouad Chehab from 1958 to 1964, which bought him into conflict with the traditional feudal, confessional and clan-based politicians. These same forces have ensured that while some politicians may pay lip service to such reforms, they never see the light of day.

“In Lebanon structural reforms would harm narrow political interests and on top of that, politicians view reforms as a zero-sum game,” explains Nassib Ghobril, head of economic research at Byblos Bank. “If a politician implements reforms then he can score points against his opponent or even his nominal ally so they will do what they can to put barriers in his way.”

And so it is that the public administration remains a hemorrhaging body, rife with clientelism that inefficiently manages a crippled and antiquated national infrastructure.    

Paying the public

The changes to the public-sector pay scale, agreed by the cabinet in September, has perhaps been the defining economic debate within Lebanon in 2012. It is also a fine example of how an issue of critical economic importance to the nation can be reduced to the ignominious status of a political football.

Under the proposed scale, ‘category one’ employees will receive a hike of LL2.9 million ($1,933), with monthy scaled increases of LL1.7 million ($1,133) for ‘category two’ employees, LL940,000 ($626) for ‘category three’ employees and LL210,000 ($140) for the state’s lowest-level clerks. In addition to this, public high school teachers, the main advocates behind the new scale, will receive around LL1 million ($667) in raises, while public elementary school teachers will receive LL789,000 ($526).

While the government reached a consensus on the pay scale it did so without reconciling how they would actually pay for it, and herein lies the foil that has scuppered the implementation of the policy. The specter of tax increases to fund the multi-billion dollar increase in expenditures has drawn cries of impending economic catastrophe from the private sector, and the government has tussled between different proposals without offering anything suitable.

“There are other sources such as fighting tax evasion and improving tax collection, which by my conservative estimates could raise an additional $1 billion in revenues,” argues Ghobril. “Then of course, long overdue reforms reducing waste and inefficiency could go a long way to cutting the government’s expenditures.”

The need to increase the purchasing power of Lebanon’s low-income households is a necessity in the face of high inflation, which is both internally and externally driven; while there are currently no reliable or comprehensive official statistics to precisely gauge inflation in Lebanon, FFA Private Bank reported that the country’s consumer price index rose 11.1 percent in October year-on-year. Rising prices for nearly all tradable goods are imported, as Lebanon is such a small player on the global stage, both in terms of consumption and production. However for any non-tradable goods or services the spiraling costs can to a large degree be explained by a structural imbalance in the economy.

Lebanon enjoys huge inflows of capital, such as remittances from expatriate Lebanese and oil money from the Gulf, which, along with easy credit from the banks, boost the local money supply. It is these large inflows of capital that drive up prices for anything that is non-tradable on international markets, such as real estate or a meal at your favorite restaurant. This phenomenon is further compounded by Lebanon’s ruinous disregard for its productive sectors.

 

Neighbor from hell

Throughout 2012 the shadows cast by the Syrian crisis across Lebanon have only grown more menacing. So much so that it could perhaps be considered a success that the nation has, in the main, stayed aloft from the violence ripping its neighbor apart. However, while violence has been confined to sporadic and localized clashes or targeted assassinations the economy has taken a battering, with no sectors passing unscathed. 

Tourism spending in the third quarter of 2012 was down 24 percent on the same period in 2011 and deposit growth in the banking sector has been on a downward trend recently; growth of 7.6 percent annually in August 2012 is off from an annual increase of 10 percent in August 2011 and pales compared 18 percent in 2010.

In many regards the effects on the economy from the turmoil in Syria are beyond the control of Lebanon’s business leaders and politicians, but nonetheless there has been a woeful lack of leadership. Stepping back from the picture it also makes sense for Lebanon to have prepared itself for any disturbances and shocks to its economy when times were good. Had Lebanon made hay while the sun was shining then it would not be so vulnerable to the current instability.

“We live in a rough neighborhood that is in one way or another unstable and has been for decades,” explains Ghobril. “We had opportunity in 2008 to put up buffers and increase our strength and to improve the immunity of the economy.”

Indeed, those were very different days in 2008. The Doha Accords had reinstated security in the country, Lebanon’s banking sector emerged as a safe haven from the global financial crisis attracting a huge inflow of capital, the central bank increased its foreign currency reserves to unprecedented levels, growth rates were comparable to China and global interest rates were near zero.

Had Lebanon reduced its public finance vulnerabilities, cut public expenditure and the borrowing needs of the government, improved tax collection and implemented reforms then, the nation’s house would have been standing on much stronger foundations now. However, content to persevere with a dysfunctional status quo the government missed the boat. “They did absolutely nothing,” says Ghobril.  

Looking at this missed window of opportunity through the lens of Lebanon’s public debt burden, which is the third highest in the world when viewed as a proportion of gross domestic product,  is particularly illuminating. The public debt to GDP ratio dropped from 180 percent in 2006 to 135 percent by the end of 2010. While this was a welcome move in the right direction, it was on account of bullish growth in the nation’s economy as opposed to any effort to reduce the borrowing needs of the government.

Now it is a very different scenario. Lebanon’s real GDP growth throughout 2012 has struggled along between zero and 2 percent and the government is still spending well beyond its means; the total fiscal balance registered a deficit of LL1,708 billion ($1.13 billion) in the first half of 2012 compared to a lower deficit of LL1,304 billion ($865 million) over the same period in 2011. What’s more, the gross public debt increased by LL2,436 billion ($1.62 billion) in the first half of 2012 to reach LL83,313 billion ($55.28 billion) against LL80,887 billion ($53.67 billion) at the end of 2011.

The global investment bank JP Morgan observes that bank deposit growth is likely to remain below the 5 to 6 percent necessary to finance both the private and public sectors this year. The central bank will therefore likely have to intervene with its large stock of foreign exchange reserves — hardly a sustainable long-term solution. As Charles Arbid, president of the Lebanese Franchise Association, states, “This current system is not working anymore. We need the support of politicians and everyone needs to be involved. We need to work and produce more and spend less. We need to move away from a culture of debt.”

But alas, it is likely to be a long wait before any of the necessary policy changes or reforms are implemented. It is going to be a bleak winter for Lebanon’s economy. With the elected leaders locked in a battle of attrition, the nation’s business owners, workers and traders are going to have to navigate the treacherous landscape of 2013 alone. 

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Finance

Where to invest in 2013

by Maya Sioufi
written by Maya Sioufi

It was a choppy year for markets in 2012, with headlines dominated by the European sovereign debt crisis and ongoing austerity plans in the peripheral countries causing social unrest. The United States presidential elections also kept investors jumpy, assessing how each candidate would affect performance of the stock markets and how they would deal with the upcoming fiscal cliff. Ongoing unrest in the Arab world, a change in leadership in China and Hurricane Sandy on the US east coast were among several other issues that added to market volatility. For investment recommendations for the upcoming year, Executive spoke to 10 of the region’s top investment professionals. 

 

Georges Abboud – Head of private banking at Blom Bank

Overall view: Favors US over European markets but could see both markets becoming cheaper in 2013 due to rising unemployment and quasi-nil growth expectations. As for emerging markets, he favors Russia for being cheap.

MENA: Favors exposure to Saudi Arabia and would diversify across sectors.

Lebanon: Recommends Blom Bank (though it should be noted that this is the bank he works for) and Solidere for their upside potential.

By assets: Recommends investing in large cap companies with strong growth potential, limited debt and high dividend yields. Also favors building exposure to US residential real estate as he expects a pickup in prices in the next few years, increasing exposure to gold on dips around $1,550 or lower and selling the yen against the dollar. He is also keeping an eye out for high-yielding fixed income securities, such as Venezuelan government bonds, which are still returning more than 10 percent.

Top picks for 2013: For large-cap companies, he recommends Google, Total, General Motors and Nissan. For smaller companies, he favors LinkedIn in the US and Groupe Eurotunnel in Europe. In emerging markets, he recommends Russian energy company Gazprom.

 

Nadim Kabbara – Head of research at FFA Private Bank

Overall view: Believes that the US and major central banks’ quantitative easing measures limited the downside of the markets. Favors investment in the US over Europe as it is still challenging for now, and would not generally invest in Europe unless there are selective opportunities.

MENA: Sees good investment opportunities in the region. He would avoid countries that are oil importers, or that have high political risk, such as Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain and Egypt. He favors Saudi Arabia, which is looking to use its revenues to boost non-oil sectors. He also recommends investing in Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

Lebanon: Expects the Lebanese equity markets to continue reflecting the performance of companies within the banking and real estate sectors, which are operating in more difficult conditions against a backdrop of greater economic and political uncertainty and weakened investor appetite.

By assets: Favors playing an increase in spending from the US consumer and would invest in discretionary sectors, such as apparel manufacturers, automobile and component makers, retailers and food and beverage. He is also opportunistically waiting to invest in more cyclical companies, with a preference for industrial companies and technology companies. He also likes the US healthcare sector as “the baby boomers are now turning 60 and many will be exiting the workforce and are going to need more medication.”

Top picks for 2013: Spirit Airlines, a US-based regional ultra-discount airline company, and Etihad Etisalat, a Saudi Arabia-based telecommunication company.

 

Elie Khoury – Chairman of Berytus Capital

Overall view: Conservatively bullish on US markets, with expectations for a modest 4 to 6 percent return given the lackluster unemployment picture and despite his bullishness on the US housing market. He is slightly bearish on Europe as austerity plans are one of his chief concerns.

MENA: Not too keen due to the political unrest in the region.

Lebanon: No interest in the Lebanese markets.

By assets: Favors equities, which he expects to continue their upward trend due to the continuous support from central banks globally. If the US unemployment and housing picture improves, he will be buying equities more aggressively. His top sectors to invest in are technology and consumer.

Top picks for 2013: Khoury likes Pfizer in the pharmaceutical sector, Kraft in the consumer non-cyclical sector and Microsoft, Intel and Qualcomm in the technology sector. Given his bullishness on the US housing market, he would acquire equity and mortgage real estate investment trusts as well as service and home improvement stocks, such as Home Depot, Costco and homebuilders exchange-traded funds but warns that investments exposed to this sector should not account for more than 10 to 15 percent of a portfolio.

 

Elias Feghali – Head of private banking at Middle East Capital Group, a subsidiary of First National Bank

Overall view: Prefers the US over Europe but not bullish on equity going into 2013, as quantitative easing policies are postponing a deeper problem — the continuous growth in sovereign debt.

MENA: Not much appetite for investments in the region due to the Arab revolutions. Top picks in the region would be First Gulf Bank and National Bank of Kuwait.

Lebanon: Would invest in Lebanese securities as some stocks are very cheap, but he would be cautious with the banking sector for now, due to its exposure to Arab countries in turmoil. He would invest in Solidere at a stock price below $14.

By assets: Favors high yielding stocks such as US tobacco companies Philipp Morris and Altria. He also has a preference for defensive sectors like consumer staples. He highlights Coca Cola, WalMart and McDonald’s, as even in times of economic crisis they perform well.

Top picks for 2013: Would buy gold and silver, and the stocks of McDonald’s and Altria. Also highly recommends owning a security that plays the market on the downside for hedging purposes, such as VIX Short Term Futures.

Nour Eldeen al-Hammoury – Chief market strategist at Amana Capital

Overall view: Expects economic growth to stall as long as debt continues to rise across the board and urges governments to stop spending money they don’t have; he would not be surprised if another economic shock occurs in 2013 or 2014.

MENA: No interest in the region but he does highlight that the abundant cash reserves in MENA government coffers provide support in these turbulent times and sustained high oil prices will continue stimulating reserve cash for the governments.

By assets: Recommends gold and silver with a preference for silver for its undervaluation. Within equities, prefers defensive stocks in 2013 such as telecommunications, consumer and utilities.

Top picks for 2013: Would acquire the S&P 500 index which he sees going to 1,500. Would also invest in Apple stock, which he expects to reach $800 in 2013, as well as Facebook, which he sees going to between $25 and $30.

 

Hatem Rafii – Head of asset management at Royal Forex Trading

Overall view: Very bullish on major world equity markets such as Germany, the UK, France and the US. 

MENA: Expects the continued geopolitical risk to remain high and attract investors looking to buy cheap stocks, as opposed to greedy ones that buy stocks even if they are expensive in order to generate more returns. He likes the GCC markets, which he expects to continue to move higher, albeit very slowly. Favors markets in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar.

Assets: Very bearish on gold over the next 18 months as Rafii expects the continued economic recovery in the US and Europe to undermine gold prices. Even though the Japanese Nikkei index has been underperforming, he believes it has the most attractive risk-reward ratio, with a potential upside of 12,000 during the next 18 months but a downside of 8,250, as warranted by four-year lows.

Top picks for 2013: Invest in the Dubai Financial Market stock as it is a “great stock to accumulate once volumes come back to the exchange,” he says. He also likes the banking sector in Saudi Arabia. He would also buy two indices: Japan’s Nikkei 225 and the S&P 500.

 

Henri Chaoul – Chief investment strategist at Alkhabeer Capital

Overall view: Expects a slow recovery in the US, which is heading towards “an ugly fiscal cliff” at the end of 2012 and a contraction of growth in Europe. Expects most emerging markets, particularly India, Brazil and China, to struggle because of weaker exports to developed economies. Despite all the quantitative easing seen all around the world and especially in the US and Europe, believes inflation will remain broadly under control.

MENA: Amid a slowdown across the world’s major economic regions, he expects Gulf countries to witness continuous growth led by the $65-plus billion in construction contracts awarded in the GCC in 2012, the growing demand for hotel space in the region — particularly in the UAE — and the passing of the long-awaited mortgage law in Saudi Arabia (passed in July 2012).

Assets: Does not recommend investing in the US sovereign fixed-income market due to low yields; prefers European sovereign market due to the European Central Bank’s recent interventionist policies. Cautious on corporate bonds due to the excess liquidity impacting the yields. Remains neutral on European equities. Expects a 10 percent appreciation in US equities in the event of pro-growth fiscal policies as well as an unchanged capital income taxation policy.

Top picks for 2013: Favors cyclical sectors in Europe that may be more undervalued than others and which would benefit from a positive turn in events in Europe, such as chemicals, oil and gas and industrial goods. Recommends gold, which he expects could breach the $2,000 psychological barrier.

 

Walid Abousleiman – Chairman of Aksys Capital

Overall view: Believes 2013’s main theme for investment will be Asia, except Japan. Expects the resolutions regarding Greece and Spain to continue overhanging the embattled European markets, but “this time around, investors have been reluctant to deviate from risky assets due to profound commitment by the European central bank governor Mario Draghi to maintain a unified irreversible.” Hopes for a brighter economic outlook in the medium term in China following the once-in-a-decade government reshuffling. Sees the American economy leading economic growth globally, as justified by improving macro indicators, especially a rising uptrend in the housing sector combined with moderate third-quarter corporate results. 

MENA: Expects volatility to remain as continuous geopolitical threats surround the region and oil prices pick up, leading investors to gradually pull out of equity markets and accumulate positions in the sovereign debt of solid economies, namely Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. 

Lebanon: For long-term investors, recommends Bank Audi, Blom Bank and Solidere.

By assets: Recommends holding a third of the portfolio in cash or cash equivalents, a third in gold and a third in US large-cap equities. As for fixed income, he would stick to quality corporate names in developed markets with short-term maturities.

Top picks for 2013: Recommends the technology, consumer staples and financial sectors once the US fiscal cliff overhang is dealt with.

 

Khaled Zeidan – General manager of MedSecurities, a BankMed subsidiary

Overall view: Remains focused on US markets, in particular sectors that will benefit from the ongoing monetary easing, such as banking and consumer retail. As for emerging markets, expects China to remain the main driver, along with commodity-producing nations Brazil, Canada and Australia.

MENA: Still focused on Turkish and Saudi Arabian markets, no longer market wide but rather sector specific. In the case of the Saudi market, focuses on banking, insurance and cement. In Turkey, would look at the banking sector, particularly after Turkey’s credit upgrade to investment grade (in November 2012).

Lebanon: Expects the local market to bottom out in 2013, providing long-term investors with an opportunity to pick banking stocks as well as Solidere at great long-term value. 

By assets: Recommends maintaining exposure to both equities and fixed income with a stronger bias to equities.   

Top picks for 2013: US-centric banking stocks are an interesting trade as the Federal Reserve’s accommodative policy will result in prices drifting back to book value, which is 30 to 40 percent higher than current prices (as of November 2012). 

 

Sami Akhrass – Chairman of Arab Finance Corporation

Overall view: Bearish on US and European markets due to the “money printing spree” of most central banks in developed countries, which he expects to contribute to creating asset bubbles. As for emerging markets, expects them to be negatively impacted by the performance of global developed markets.

MENA: He would wait for all the political changes and for the upheaval to play out before deploying capital into the region.

Lebanon: He would stay clear of Lebanon’s sovereign bonds. As for equities, while the valuation and the dividend yields of banks are attractive, he is concerned about the lack of liquidity and visibility.

By assets: Favors corporate and sovereign bonds in Europe as well as corporate bonds in the US. 

Top picks for 2013: In the US, recommends corporate bonds of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as well as the US Treasury bond maturing in February 2022. In Europe, recommends corporate bonds of Telefonica, HeidelCement, Fiat and Credit Agricole, as well as the Spanish government bond maturing in April 2021 and the Italian government bond maturing in March 2022.

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The Buzz

Morning briefing: 3 Dec 2012

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

OPEC member Qatar will ask firms to tender for a 1,800 megawatt (MW) solar energy plant in 2014 costing between $10-20 billion as the world’s highest per capita greenhouse gas emitter seeks to increase its renewable energy production.

More from Gulf Business

 

Saudi Arabia's General Commission for Tourism and Antiquities has imposed a ban on smoking at all tourism facilities.

More from AME Info

 

South Sudan could restart oil exports through Sudan by the end of the year after successful talks between both countries on border security, a top Southern official said on Sunday.

More from The Daily Star

 

Israel has stopped payment of $120 million in tax revenue to the Palestinians, as the government of prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu punished them further for their successful UN statehood bid.

More from The National

 

Companies

Germany’s Merck Serono said it would team up with an Abu Dhabi firm to produce medicines for the domestic and regional markets, the first multinational of its kind to make branded products in the United Arab Emirates.

More from Gulf Business

 

Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) has said Saudi Arabia's stock market regulator has approved a 10 percent bonus share.

More from AME Info

 

Saudi mining firm Maaden signed deals worth 977 million Saudi riyals ($260 million) with US firms Fluor Corp and Bechtel to help develop an industrial city in the country's north, it said. 

More from Arabian Business

 

The Board of Zain Group has appointed Scott Gegenheimer as its new Chief Executive Officer. Gegenheimer replaces Nabeel Bin Salamah, who announced in October that he would not be renewing his contract.
 

More from AME Info

 

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Real Estate

Building regardless

by Thomas Schellen
written by Thomas Schellen

Screech! Honk! And a few polite words. That is what it takes for the 40-ton dump truck on a busy intersection at noontime in the middle of Beirut’s Ashrafieh district to make cars give him enough space to squeeze a left turn onto the district artery, Independence Avenue. Neither the narrow side street from which the trucker emerged with a load of sand and rock, nor the main street, is suited for heavy vehicles. But a fleet of his colleagues will repeat the exercise every 20 or 30 minutes throughout the day, and not only on this one sunny November day. They are hauling excavated soil from a massive construction site on the southern slope of the Ashrafieh hill over the course of several weeks, so that the foundations for another multi-story apartment block can soon be poured.

The project where these lorries are loaded is not the only hyperactive property excavation in Ashrafieh in the fourth quarter of 2012, not by a long shot. Other earth removal motorcades are operating on other sites all throughout the busy district. Construction is ongoing along the district’s perimeter, at its very center and highest point, and on many of the narrow streets in between.

Projects are digging deeper and building higher than ever before, with residential towers reaching 20, 30 and even more than 40 floors into the urban sky. Around the 600-meter-short Omar Haimari Street, which marks the district’s highest stretch, just 40 steps away from Independence Ave, three massive developments are under way, including the 43-story Sky Gate, which, at only half its final height as November ended, was already visibly redefining the Ashrafieh skyline. It, and what is slated to be the even taller SAMA Tower that is reaching toward its 195-meter target height just west down Independence Avenue, are but two of a tide of projects altering the Beirut cityscape, and the fabric of suburban areas and the countryside around the capital, in profound and unprecedented ways.

The numbers don’t tally

At the changeover from 2012 to 2013, Ashrafieh is only one of many hotspots of construction activity; other hardcore development areas are the central district managed by urban renewal company Solidere, and parts of the ring road around the Beirut Municipality territory where some trash lands spotted with ugly commercial structures have been discovered by developers. Outside of the capital and immediate suburbia, residential clusters in the Metn region and leisure areas higher up the mountainous surrounds are flush with projects.   
What makes this fin-de-2012 image of high-gear development activity a puzzling picture is that it is being splashed across the small Lebanese canvas at a time when all indicators on real estate are, at face value, negative.

According to indicators compiled in the Bank Audi third-quarter economic report on Lebanon, cement deliveries, the number of real estate sales transactions and issuances of building permits were all down in the first three quarters of 2012. Property sales fell 9.2 percent for the nine-month period from a year ago, and contracted by an even higher 11.4 percent when comparing just the third quarter of 2012 with the same period in 2011.

The eight-month figures on cement deliveries were down to 3.4 million tons in 2012 from 3.7 million tons in 2011, and in square meters (sqm) worth of construction permits, issuance contracted to 10.7 million sqm 2012 from 12.4 million sqm in the first nine months of 2011. This constitutes drops of 7.9 percent on cement and 14.3 percent on licensed floor space. When factoring in the drop in property transaction numbers, the trio of real estate sector indicators shows, at least in theory, downturns on completed, ongoing and planned projects.

The caveat here is that these numbers are likely not entirely accurate. Property registrations are often delayed for purposes of tax avoidance and building permits don’t always translate into the same actual built-up area. Even cement figures have been suspected to be muddied by grey exports.

However, while developers and intermediaries in the real estate industry almost uniformly say that the situation must not be called a crisis, developers tell Executive that the slowdown in their activity in 2012 is real and the outlook for 2013 is muted.

Sales developments for the real estate projects of MENA Capital (which focused traditionally on the high end of the luxury market in prime areas of Beirut and whose largest project is Sky Gate) were negative in 2012 and 2011, confides Nabil Sawabini, the company’s chief executive. “The cumulative value of sales has been declining in the past two years; we sold more in 2010 than in [each of] 2011 and 12,” he says. Nonetheless, units in Sky Gate are about two-thirds sold, he adds.

Georges Chehwane, chief executive of developer Plus Properties, and of communications media and real estate conglomerate Plus Group, says regional uncertainty contributes to the slowdown, but adds that, “the main part is the large number of units that [have been] in the market since 2009, as there is a gap between the yearly demand and the yearly offer of supply. This is the main problem today in addition to the political situation in which people are not buying.”

The current real estate market confronts investors with a state of uncertainty, says Houssam Batal, chief executive of developer Prime Projects. “It is not very clear to say where [the market] will go. There is a feeling that there will be an oversupply in many product types. The main thing that is affecting the market right now is the political situation and instability, and the grey outlook related to Syria and to domestic issues that we have. The investors are worried about the dangers of bigger problems to come.”

Sadly for buyers, this does not mean that property bargains are going to abound next year.

“Demand has decreased, the economy is in a difficult situation and the future is somewhat blurred but prices for apartments and real estate, especially in prime areas, have remained stable and have increased in some cases. It is a weird economic picture,” says Ziad Maalouf, chief executive of Capstone Investment Group, a financial firm whose activities include real estate development.
Zardman, a developer that is fairly fresh in the market and claims to have seen moderate sales growth in 2011 and 2012 against market trends, also sees prices as moving sideways. “We have two sides to our business, addressing the middle class in the Metn region and the higher end market in Ashrafieh,” Makram Zard, the general manager of Zardman, tells Executive. “The Metn region was extremely good this year. Ashrafieh is doing well. I don’t think… that prices are dropping but sales are not quite as good as last year.”

Less for more

Maalouf’s and Zard’s assessment of unwavering prices fits with what other developers say, and statistics show that the cumulative value of property sales in Lebanon this year, despite the contraction in transaction volume, was up from last year. Correspondingly, the average value per transaction is the indicator that in 2012 showed the most pronounced gain for the year-to-date.

At $6.3 billion, the total value of the nine-month tally of registered property transactions was up 4.8 percent, but the average value per transaction increased 15.4 percent year-on-year to $120,000 from $104,000 for the January to September period, according to government figures cited by Bank Audi in mid-November.

The trend of price inelasticity is long-term. Although demand for real estate had been slowing since late 2010, expectations for lower prices harbored by property seekers had been disappointed even back then, according to Maalouf. “I have heard of a lot of people since 2009 and 2008 who had been delaying the purchase of an apartment in the hope of buying the same apartment later at a lower price. But this has not happened,” he explains.

At the junction of 2012 and 2013, the real estate market in Lebanon is a buyer’s market in terms of choice and options in up-market locations as long as a buyer has cash-stuffed pockets or a high and growing income. In terms of pricing, it is not a buyer’s market at all.

The market for the most important development resource, land, is also not a buyer’s dream. To the contrary, developers are faced with a very hard seller’s market, Maalouf adds. “Land prices have actually increased, despite everything. The weird thing is that expectations of land owners do not reflect realities. This is a catch for developers,” he explains. “On one hand you have buyers who see the prices for real estate as high and on the other hand you have land owners who have unrealistic expectations.”

 

Why so buoyant?

The reasons why even the oversupply of Lebanese properties does not generate much downward pressures on prices in the market for residential units are complicated.

One key factor is financial. Many developers in Lebanon self-finance, and the absence of funding pressure allows the economic self-interest of many developers to keep focused on achieving the maximal rate of return that they fixated about when embarking on their project. Developers in this category typically wait out the market if bid prices are below their expectation and can do so because they have no lending officers breathing down their necks.

Development activity may even be a one-off business for many and they base their profit modeling on building cost and land pricing, often adding in an upward revaluation of the plot during the development process — a reevaluation that, according to Zardman’s Zard, can be far higher than the amount that the interest component in a land financing agreement would represent.

Applying standard models where project companies are financed by equity from investors and by debt, or source revenues via off-plan sales, makes the developers more sensitive to market trends. This leads to more client-responsive pricing behavior and also supports rational adjustments of development activity, such as switching to more moderate unit sizes. According to Zard, developers like him — whose land value calculation in unit sales prices is based on land cost at purchase plus regular interest — transfer land value gains early on to the customer. “This is one of the reasons why our sales have been excellent when compared with the market,” he claims.   

Oft-quoted rationalizations why property prices in Lebanon would not follow cyclical patterns that are familiar from other markets are the high density of the population, the small surface territory of the nation (167th among 249 countries and territories in the world by land size), and the even smaller size of land accessible for development. According to Chehwane, roughly half of the national territory is off limits for property development because of terrain conditions, agricultural usage and ownership by religious orders.

Weighing in on the demand side of the equation are not only the young families living in the country but also the outsized theoretical buyer pool of the so-called Lebanese diaspora, which comprises millions of Lebanon-born and descendent citizens of countries in South and North America, Oceania, Europe and Africa. The second notable source of external demand is from Gulf buyers. “The Lebanese market for real estate is very dependent on Lebanese living outside the country and also on foreigners,” says MENA Capital’s Sawabini.

Brand it, baby

Younger Lebanese who have acquired sufficient means to buy an apartment in the high-priced Ashrafieh market, by laboring as expatriate managers in Dubai or Riyadh, may be less attached than earlier generations to traditional ties of kin in their residential choices but they also display strong patterns of selectivity in property buying. It is the location and the “prestigious address” that matters greatly to them, according to Zard.

This means that developers are paying increasing attention to building a reputation and brand identity for their pricey towers.

Branding a project and defending this brand against copycatting is also crucial in differentiating a project, says Ayad Nasser, owner and chief executive of developer Loft Investments. “In Lebanon, 99 percent of the projects look the same,” says Nasser. “The entire market is focused on the 99 percent of the population [who buy those types of properties]. I am not marketing to a percentage. I am marketing to people who have that drive to live in a different project.”

The differentiation of his projects is not by location but by concept and design, services and quality, he claims, and in that space “it is very important to have a brand today. ”

Counting urbanity

But before discussing the future potentials of some branding or non-branding concepts on Lebanese real estate, or musing on the ironies of cement blocks bearing names such as ‘pretty house’ or ‘xyz gardens’, some much more elementary points call for clarification. Such as, how many floors of concrete are being cast presently in areas like Downtown Beirut or Ashrafieh? How many and what sizes of units are going to drop into the Lebanese market in 2013?
Prime Projects’ Batal, a university-trained professional in real estate, answers the question on the incoming supply by saying, “There are data reports suggesting that supply is broadening versus demand but I don’t know if these reports are reliable and accurate,” adding that he has no numbers on how many projects were going up in Ashrafieh in November 2012.

He is not alone. Loft Investments’ Nasser, who says his track record of delivery includes 270 apartments since he started out with a single suburban unit in 1994, is not convinced by market research or price comparisons. “I never consult statistics; I never do a marketing plan, nothing. We just feel it. I am very confident about my clientele. I have in my portfolio different clients who became friends and I know that 10 percent of those people will be my clients, so while I am buying the land [for a new project], I call them,” he says.

Nasser admits that he does not even know the asking prices in developments going up next to his projects, but he affirms on the other hand that Lebanon’s developers “need to assess the market and the government needs to put some rules.”

Both market assessment and better rules are points that Plus Properties’ Chehwane sees as paramount necessities. He is one of the players pushing actively for realizing a professional association of developers, which he envisions to have as its core activity the compilation and publication of sector data.

Chehwane adds that there are no statistics on the real property development situation in key areas such as Ashrafieh. When asked what he believes to be the number of projects and units under development in this very district, he answers , “100 projects, at least. I believe [Ashrafieh has] around 3,000 units today under construction.”

It is futile to query either public officials or private developers for an accurate number on buildings under construction in Beirut today. So to garner at least some idea of the actual number, Executive reverted to good ol’ fashioned journalism — a pad, a pen and pounding the pavement in a random part of Ashrafieh.

Within less than ten minutes walk on one trajectory only, ascending from the Hospital Dieu area toward Sioufi Gardens, Executive found six residential projects in progress, of which one looked ready for handover (14 stories), two 12-story ones were in advanced stages of construction and should be ready for occupancy in 2013, one was a six-story shell that was frozen and the two largest sites were in the excavation phase. One of these two will have 28 stories with 43 flats of 320 to 540 sqm. The other will comprise office, commercial and residential units in two towers of eight and 11 floors.

Next was a check of the cobweb of narrow passages and bumpy streets between this project site and Alfred Naccache Street. This little quarter revealed another five projects and one plot that looked ready for the start of excavation. The largest site here was an apartment complex nearing completion with four segments ranging from 13 to 20 stories. On the eastside of Alfred Naccache Street, three more new multi-story buildings added to the ongoing development tally of this southeastern corner of Ashrafieh, in an area fully coverable on foot within 15 minutes. 

Expanding the random walk of Ashrafieh to a wider grid, Chehwane’s estimation of at least 100 ongoing projects doesn’t actually look far off the mark; if anything, it is an underestimation.

Bigger fish to fry

One has to note here that getting better data is a strategic need for developers; however, it is not an existential problem for the property makers. Their concerns and hopes lie elsewhere. The most important factor influencing Lebanese real estate now is Syria, says Capstone’s Maalouf. “If there is regime change in Syria tomorrow, I think this will have very positive spillovers on the market here. I foresee a boom [under such circumstances] simply because the confidence in the Lebanese real estate sector is going to be regained.”

For his part, Chehwane sees only temporary worries in the current oversupply with units. “The moment that we will have a positive atmosphere and positive situation, 50 percent of the stock that is available in the market will be sold. We need one year like 2006 before the war or 2008 before the crisis, and you will have a very good situation,” he enthuses.

From another, more public perspective, development takes on a different angle. Only reviewing the last five years, the cumulative square meter figure for building permits issued between January and August of each year comes to 39.85 million sqm. That is an addition of roughly 10 square meters per resident of Lebanon in a very short time, in a country that already feels stuffed with concrete buildings.   

Despite developers chiming the marketable tune that land is scarce and unaffordable for them, it can be predicted that another tide of private real estate growth will happen, quite likely within a decade at most when considering the activity cycles of the past 10 years.

Factor that in and it becomes over-evident how urgently the Beirut metro area and the country as a whole need to achieve some crucial changes of behavior: Lebanon needs planning. It needs development norms and standards that are sustainable and applied universally. It needs infrastructure, namely infrastructure that is adequate and steers growth in directions that make sense for the future. Public and private property represent the spine and skeleton of Lebanon’s future living quality. The spine has to be straightened out.
 

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Entering subsistence

by Jihad Yazigi
written by Jihad Yazigi

One of the main questions surrounding the Syrian uprising at the beginning of 2012 was if and when an economic collapse would occur. As the year draws to a close, the question has instead become whether one can still talk of “a” Syrian economy as such.

What remains of the country’s formal economy has seriously deteriorated throughout the year. Business activity significantly contracted and although the government has released no estimates, gross domestic product is believed to have fallen by at least 25 percent in the first nine months of 2012.  Disintegrating distribution and supply networks, a government increase in energy prices and a hike in the cost of imported items all combined to gradually increase the inflation rate; the consumer price index was up by 40 percent on an annual basis by August.

The Syrian pound, after having resisted all forms of pressure relatively well in 2011, lost ground. From a rate of 60 to the dollar at the beginning of the year, the exchange rate fell to over 80 pounds by mid-November 2012.

An important development has been the expansion of the violence to Aleppo during the summer, a city that had largely remained outside the popular uprising until then. Aleppo is Syria’s largest city by population, but also the country’s main manufacturing hub as well as a major trading and distribution center for agricultural products. The unrest in the city led, among other things, to the closure of its industrial city with some 600 factories suspending production.

However, while observers continue to monitor most formal indicators — such as inflation and the currency rates — as a means to measure investor sentiments, in practice most of the country’s economy now falls outside these numbers.

The expansion of violence and the varying degrees of state control over large sways of Syria have profoundly transformed its economy to the extent that one can now talk of a war economy, the creation of new business networks and the development of various new forms of trade, including smuggling, looting and kidnapping.

Some areas of the country are still firmly under state control and as such continue to be provided by regular government services — these include the provinces of Latakia, Tartous and Suweida as well as the central parts of Damascus. In these parts of the country the supply of products continues at relatively normal levels, although prices have skyrocketed.

Other areas have little left of the state, such as the rural parts of Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Homs and Daraa. Meanwhile, the cities of Aleppo and Der-ez-Zour are under constant bombardment and have almost no business activity to speak of, while the northeast of the country is growing increasingly autonomous in the management of its day-to-day affairs. Looting is common in areas where inhabitants have fled; smuggling to and from neighboring countries has exploded as the government’s control over its borders weakened, customs tariffs increased and formal international banking transactions are at a standstill; kidnapping for ransom is widespread.

As the autumn pushed on, the government finally began to express more openly its concerns for the near future. In a well-publicized statement, the deputy prime minister in charge of economic affairs, Qadri Jamil, said in September that in the absence of a political solution to the crisis gripping the country, the economy was heading towards “a stroke” by the end of the year. Jamil was forced to retract his statement a few days later, but the damage was done. 

Meanwhile, in early October, the Minister of Agriculture Subhi al-Abdallah encouraged his fellow citizens to “grow whatever they could grow and raise whatever animal or chicken they could raise.” Abdallah’s words echoed a prevailing sentiment in Syria: slowly but surely, the economy was moving towards subsistence mode. 

The depth of distress in the economy, reflected in these statements, points to the major challenges ahead for Syria’s future decision makers. Syria may manage to rebuild relatively quickly its physical infrastructure, but it will require a very significant redefinition of economic policy, an overhaul of existing business and trade ties and a formalization of much of its economic activity before the country truly recovers from the devastation it is facing.

 

Jihad Yazigi is editor-in-chief of The Syria Report

 

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No end to injustice

by Ahmed Moor
written by Ahmed Moor

For the Palestinians the passage of time offers little reprieve. While their circumstances have changed this past year, they have only changed for the worse. Israel has systematically worked to isolate them and hem them into smaller spaces. Governments worldwide seem prepared to accept their continued deprivation and Israel’s steroidal apartheid. The latest salvo between Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and Israel ended with more than 150 dead Palestinians, the majority of whom were civilians, and five Israelis killed. The conflict is deepening. 

Some analysts continue to insist that there is a two-state blueprint that is workable for the Palestinians and Israelis. In fact, reality has moved sharply away from any such accommodation. The settlements in the West Bank and around Jerusalem have altered the ‘reality on the ground’ in irreversible ways. Jerusalem is being ethnically cleansed. Palestine has been colonized into nothing. That’s the reality.

At this stage it is worth evaluating what the overall Israeli policy in Jerusalem and the West Bank appears to be. While decision-making in Israel appears to be driven by short-term considerations, there is a long-term outlook, and it is becoming more evident daily. Nir Barkat, the Jewish Israeli mayor of West Jerusalem, has been very effective at restricting the growth of Palestinian neighborhoods in occupied East Jerusalem. In some cases, public works projects are cynically announced with the object of forestalling Palestinian development. For instance, a large tract of private Palestinian land near the neighborhood of Silwan has recently been designated as “state property”. The Jerusalem municipality has declared that a park will be constructed on the site, a claim that some observers regard as a pretext for continued Israeli colonization of East Jerusalem. 

In Jerusalem, Palestinian life is so circumscribed that many of the city’s indigenous residents are forced to live elsewhere. The lack of development in Palestinian neighborhoods along with the refusal to grant building permits work to drive the Judaization of the city. 

Processes in the West Bank follow the dominant Jerusalem strategy. More than 60 percent of that occupied territory, the Oslo process’s “Areas B and C”, is off-limits to Palestinians. They are not granted building permits in their rural villages — a policy that forces many people into the Palestinian Authority (PA) administered “Area A”. In other words, a West Bank version of ‘bantustanization’ — the apartheid-era South African policy dividing up the territory of black inhabitants — is developing with few impediments. 

Essentially then, the Israeli strategy is to Judaize Jerusalem through ethnic cleansing while doing the same to Areas B and C of the West Bank. The “Gaza solution” — isolating Palestinians in shrinking cantons — is being adapted to the particular geography of the other Palestinian territories.

Historically, the PA leadership has demonstrated its profound impotence in the face of persistent Israeli apartheid and occupation. But that may be changing.

President Mahmoud Abbas’ decision to seek a status upgrade at the United Nations on November 29 is the most concrete challenge the PA has posed to the Israelis in years. In fact, the move poses a serious threat to the Israeli leadership because it could provide the Palestinians with access to international adjudicatory bodies. In particular, the International Criminal Court could be called upon to intervene in cases where sufficient evidence of Israeli crimes exists. Analysts have speculated that the Israeli decision to attack Gaza in November is linked in part to the Palestinian Authority’s decision to petition the United Nations for upgraded status. The Israeli elections in January and the fact that the other three Knesset elections this past decade were all preceded by massive military operations against Palestinian areas provides additional context for understanding the extent of the airstrikes. 

The context of the attacks in Gaza — indeed, the broader context of what’s happening to the Palestinians — has changed. The Middle East is no longer ruled by programmable autocrats. Egypt and Turkey in particular may produce a ceasefire in the short term and a change in European policy — if not American policy — in the long term. Egypt and Turkey succeeded in enhancing their diplomatic clout after brokering a ceasefire between Hamas fighters and the Israeli government; that trend is likely a sustainable one.

It is far too early to know what the different constellation of powers in the Middle East means for the Palestinians in the long term. As for the short term, the safest assumption is that 2013 will bring no real change; apartheid and arbitrary war are the twin governors of the Palestinian territories. The Palestinians will continue to suffer into the near future.  

 

Ahmed Moor is a master of public policy candidate at the Harvard University Kennedy School of Government

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