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Best Sellers

Unleavened bread

by Tania Avoukdjian October 15, 2000
written by Tania Avoukdjian

Bakers and business people are of a

similar breed. One likes to see his

bread rise, the other his profits.

Dora Mills is a company that likes to see

both. Its revenues from flour sales

increased by 11 % between l 995 and 1998,

from $4.48 million to $6.64 million, and

then dropped to $6 million last year.

“We’ve been growing steadily, not dramatically,”

says owner Arslan Sinno. He

should be grateful for that. A small player in

a sector that is dominated by big firms,

Dora Mills survives by being innovative and

versatile in a market that has seen more •

than one mill fall by the wayside.

The local milling industry is in a sorry

state, the victim of a misguided government

policy designed to help struggling farmers but

simultaneously harms an important industry.

For the last few years, the government,

through the wheat board, has forced local flour

rnills to buy a quarter of their wheat from the

local market, at about $300 per ton. That’s

more than double the price of imported

wheat, which sells for $140 per ton. This

increases the cost of producing a ton of local

flour by around $70. And, according to

millers, the local wheat is of such poor quality

that most of it can’t be used for little more

than animal feed.

“This is the only way to ensure that locally

produced wheat will be sold,” says

Nasser Saidi, minister of economy and

trade, in defense of the wheat import

restrictions. But Sinno and most millers

consider the policy to be pure folly. “The

government is penalizing local industries in

a very scandalous way,” he says. The more

wheat is subsidized, the less willing farmers

will be to switch to more profitable

crops, says Paul Mansour, owner of Crown

Flour Mills. Four years ago, local production

of wheat was 20,000 tons. This year farmers

are expected to produce 50,000 tons.

If the current policy continues, local production

could reach 100,000tons in two years

time. “The government has this ridiculous

policy of encouraging farmers in the Bekaa

to produce wheat, instead of producing

something else,” says Mansour. “This is the

worst policy anyone has ever made. The

government is ruining the milling industry.”

Adding insult to injury, there’s an additional

tax of LL 10,000 on every ton of wheat purchased

by millers to pay for the social security of bakery

employees as well as mill

workers. “I already pay

social security tax for my

65 employees. Why should

I have to pay for other people’s

employees as well?”

asks Mansour. Millers took

their case to the Shura

council, demanding that the

tax be overturned. They

won the case, but the

National Social Security • office has been slow to implement the ruling.

With such high production costs, millers

find it almost impossible to export. “We cannot

distribute to other countries,” says

Sinno. But foreign flour flows relatively

freely into Lebanon – more than $1.3 million’s

worth was imported by May of this

year. The country’s 13 flour mills already

have a production capacity three times

greater than local demand. Two mills were

recently forced to close down, while the

remaining ones are working at 30% to 50%

capacity. “We are not asking for protection,

subsidies or assistance from the government,” says Sinno.

“We just want our products to be treated like foreign products.”

Nonetheless Dora Mills, a medium-sized

enterprise operating in a market of large

established players, has been holding up relatively

well. Flour mills, such as Bakalian

and Crown, were in the market long before

Dora Mills began operations in 1960. “You

can’t compare Dora Flour Mills to us, we are

much bigger than them,” says Edmond

Costanian, financial director at Societe Industrielle du

Levant (SIDUL), better

known as Bakalian Flour

Mill. Bakalian’s revenues

were $33 million in 1999.

Mansour considers Dora

Mills to be “a hard working,

good mill, but they need to

improve their quality.”

Crown Flour Mills’

turnover is stable so far this

year at $39 million. But over the past few years it

has been increasing by 10% yearly.

“Competition is very tough, everyone tries

to find a niche market for his flour. I try to produce

a quality that will exclusively serve the

baker,” says Sinno. “We are always trying to

be a step ahead of our competition, following

trends in Europe and the US and applying

them locally.”

“They respect their customers and produce

stable flour,” says Assaad Abou Habib, general

manager of The Wooden Bakery, one of

the firm’s customers.

Not long ago, Dora Mills became the

first flour mill in the country to sell flour

in bulk, and signed

agreements with a number of bakeries.

Dora Mills would provide

the bakeries with

free flour silos in

exchange for the exclusive

right to sell them

bulk flour. Among

these clients are The

Wooden Bakery on

Zalka highway, Al

Oumarak in Khaldi,

Samarani Bakery in

Amshit and Shamsine

Bakery. “They are the only ones who have this system,” says

Abou Habib.

One factor in Dora Mills’ favor has been

the drop in wheat prices on the international

market this year. Bigger mills made

their purchases before the change in prices,

obliging some to sell their flour at a loss.

Dora Mills, by contrast, rarely purchases

large quantities of wheat at a time, so profits

remain stable.

Dora Mills is an ingenious operation.

Like bread in an oven, it is a business that

keeps on expanding even though the government

has stolen all the yeast.

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Uncategorized

Cookin’

by Hadi khatib October 15, 2000
written by Hadi khatib

A restaurant owner shopping for

new kitchen equipment has

plenty of choices. Around 23

different companies compete on the

main market for industrial kitchen supply,

which is worth about $12 million. Here,

three firms – Vresso, Salarco and

Malifer – dominate the business, each

claiming to be the leader.

They supply the

bulk of big projects like

 large international

 hotel chains, hospitals

and army compounds.

But in today’s

shrinking economy,

competition

is hot.

Vresso seems

to be sweating a

bit less than the

others.

By diversifying outside this

market, the company has been able to outflank its competitors.

Roughly 70% of Vresso’s revenues, which have grown from $2.25

million in 1993 to $5.3 million last year, are generated from the sale

of kitchen equipment. Vresso also has about a 10% slice of the $1.5

million market for laundry and dry cleaning equipment. “Whereas

others subcontract this sector and collect a margin, I import,” says

Vrej Sabounjian, Vresso’s president. ‘The sale of ten machines, each

costing $10,000 to $15,000, is substantial.” The company supplies

$2 million’s worth of refrigerators to supermarkets each year, holding

an estimated 20% of the market. “Some might include a project

to supply Spinney’s or Monoprix with stainless steel works on a reference

list. But I am one of the few that supplies the actual refrigeration,

which is 90% of the sale,” says Sabounjian. Vresso also sells

cold-room sullies, with about a I 0% share of this $3 million market.

And recently, Vresso completed a $120,000 project for Monoprix.

Another part of the company’s strategy was to go after niche areas

within the kitchen supply market. For example, Vresso is the

biggest supplier of kitchen equipment to major restaurant chains.

Its clients include Burger King, McDonald’s, Pizza Hut and

Crepaway. Working with solid international franchises provides

a steady source of income for Vresso, but some in the business are

not so convinced. “Honestly, my sales people don’t know how to

sell for these small projects. Just how much can be earned from

them, $50,000, $60,000?” asks Raymond Bacha, managing

director at Solarco.

But diversification has not been Vresso’s only survival tactic.

After the recession set in a few years ago and competition intensified,

profit margins dropped from 25% to 5%. Rather than trying to defeat

its rivals by pricing them out of the market, Vresso has sought to

acquire them.

Last year, the company bought Cutlass, an outfit specializing in

the sale of small kitchen tools such as meat cutters. Vresso let some

Cutlass employees go, consolidated the company’s two warehouses,

bought new equipment and improved the distribution

system. The result: Cutlass’ annual sales increased by 200% to $1

million, and Vresso had one less rival to worry about.

Vresso has approached both Solarco and Malifer with similar

offers, but neither was interested. Currently, the firm is negotiating

the purchase of another rival, whose name has yet to be disclosed.

“This is a good company with limited resources. In this environment,

you have to be bigger, manage your finances well, cut

costs, reorganize your company, attack the market aggressively, sell

large volumes and take away market share,” says Sabounjian.

Vresso has also created its own market called “shop fitting.” The

company claims to be

the first to design and

install a specialized

kitchen equipment that

fits the needs of particular businesses. “It’s a

multifaceted concept,”

says Sabounjian. He

points to La Cigale in

Ashrafieh, an eatery

selling gourmet pastries,

chocolates and ice

cream that Vresso

recently equipped with a

range of specially

designed kitchen equipment. ‘We will be the only ones qualified to

do a large number of these projects in the future,” says Sabounjian.

And what a bright future that could be. No matter how competitive

this line of business becomes, as long as Vresso can continue

to keep one step ahead of its rivals, it will do okay. ‘There is room

for everyone in the market and I respect my competition, but we

won’t stop here. We will keep growing,” says Sabounjian.

A lighter side to food services

There is a lighter side to the food service business. While a

plethora of companies struggle to survive in the fiercely competitive

market for hefty kitchen equipment, a few smaller

outfits have found that selling small cutlery items – such as

forks, knives and plates – can be quite lucrative. Horequip

and Eastern Imports are two examples. Both cater to

hotels and restaurants. “A sale to a 100-room hotel can make

me about $50,000 on plates alone. You also have cutlery and

other accessories,” says Naim Chami, part owner of

Horequip, which has annual revenues of about $500,000.

Chami claims to supply 80% of the high-end hotels in

Lebanon and 20% of restaurants.

Eight years ago, Eastern Imports switched from the

household retail business to commercial food service.

The firm ships high-end glassware, chinaware, kitchen

utensils and plates from the US to Lebanon. “Thanks to the

boom in hotels, our imports doubled to about $4 million last

year,” says Hagop Beylerian, operations manager and

part owner of Eastern. But similar to what happened to

kitchen equipment suppliers, competition has increased in

recent years and profit margins have shrunk from around

25% a few years ago to 5% today.

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Editorial

Avoiding the crunch

by Executive Editors October 15, 2000
written by Executive Editors

The days of smooth sailing for Tony the Tiger, Toucan Sam

and Snap, Crackle, Pop may be coming to an end. For the

first time, cereal giant Kellogg’s is facing local competition.

boxes of Poppin’s. the first Lebanese brand of breakfast cereal,

appeared on supermarket shelves this past June in six different flavors.

The new cereal is the latest creation of Delta Trading, better

known for being the manufacturer of Master Chips. In just two

months, sales of Poppin’s have reached $500,000 and already

Delta is exporting its cereal to Syria, Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf.

The firm expects revenues from Poppin’s to reach $2 million by the

end of the year.

Delta’s venture into the cereal business is part of a strategy of

diversification. Revenues from potato chips have recently tapered

off. Sales of Master Chips jumped from $3.6 million in 1995 to

$ 13.5 million in 1999, with net profits of $1.35 million last year.

During that time the company was expanding its network of factories

and distribution offices as well as exporting to Jordan and the

Gulf. But in 2000, with the recession in full swing, the company’s

midyear sales reached just $6 million, well short of the $8 million

projected. Sales for the end of the year are expected to be $12 million,

bellow the break-even point for the company.

At the same time, competition has been intensifying. Master Chips

claims to control roughly 38% of the market, a share nearly equal

to its number one competitor Fantasia. But the market shares of both

companies have come under assault recently from the imported

Pringles, which was introduced to the market by Transmed at the

end of last year. Through a splashy advertising campaign, the

new brand quickly grabbed an 18% market share, although,

according to Michel Daher, chairman of Delta Trading, that figure

has since dropped to 6%. Transmed could not be reached for

comment, but the company recently dropped the price of Pringles from

LL2, 750 per container to LL 1,250 in what Daher sees as a bid to

recapture lost ground.

With Master Chips no longer providing solid ground for earnings

growth, Delta began searching for new products it could introduce to

the market. The company considered branching into the juice business.

“But we realized that there was a lot of competition,” says Emile

Saydi, Delta’s sales manager. The breakfast cereal business, however,

was a $10 million per year market that no local firm had yet tapped.

Delta faces a tough battle if it wants to make its Choco Bumps as

familiar a household name as Kellogg’s Coco Puffs. Competition

in the cereal business is already intense. The US-based Kellogg’s, with

worldwide revenues of $6.9 billion last year, controls a 70% slice of

the local market, followed by Nestle with a 20% market share. Delta

will gain little advantage by producing Poppin’s locally. Customs on

imported breakfast cereal is 15% while the company will be paying

tariffs of between 15% and 20% on its raw materials.

But Daher is determined to undercut the prices of his competitors

by at least 35%. “I only take a 10% profit margin,” he says. “That way

I will sell bigger volume.” Daher also believes that the quality of

Poppin’s is superior to that of imports. Unlike cereals produced

abroad that spend a substantial amount of time in transit, Poppin’s goes

straight from the production line to the supermarket shelf. “The advantage

of locally manufactured cereal is that it is fresh and does not have

a long shelf life like well-known brands,” says Wilf Jones, a consultant

hired to train Delta’s employees in cereal making. Delta

 invested over $11 million in

state-of-the-art equipment

that, Daher

claims, is superior to

the machinery

Kellogg’s uses. Jones

says that when

Poppin’s is left in a

bowl of milk, it lasts up

to three minutes without

becoming soggy.

Kellogg’s cereal, on

the other hand,

becomes soggy after

just one minute.

Poppin’s is also specially suited to the local palate. For example,

the chocolate-based cereals, such as Choco Flakes and Bobo Choe,

are sweeter than their foreign counterparts. “Most Lebanese like

sweeter chocolate, not the bitter types like the Europeans,” says Jones.

Daher believes that Poppin’s will be a big hit in Lebanon but he is

under no illusions. “It will take us 24 to 30 months to break even,” he

says. Even that may be ambitious. It took Nestle three years to make

profits on its imported cereal brands. For Delta, a company already operating

in the red, that is a long time to wait. What’s more, in a market

dominated by import-obsessed consumers, who is going to trade in their

Com Flakes for a local brand with the name Flick Flakes?

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Q&A

David and goliath

by Executive Editors October 15, 2000
written by Executive Editors

What are the problems you have been having with Solidere?

KHOURY I have no problem with Solidere. I believe that Solidere is

a problem in itself for the country, for Beirut and for the people who

are concerned with their shares and rights. It is the state’s duty to resolve

the Solidere problem, to prevent it from further invading areas that do

not belong to it. The limit of Solidere stops on the street before the sea,

clearly avoiding the St. Georges. The old 1998 map avoids the St.

Georges, the yacht club, the hotel as well as the water. In 1999, without

grounds or legal references to any decrees, they included a triangular

area in front of the St. Georges in its territory.

Have you made any progress?

KHOURY There has been a committee formed of six ministries that has

clearly stated that Solidere has no rights in the marina. According to decree

7776, Solidere has no jurisdiction in sector five, the water sector. They have

tried to stop our commercial activities, specifically the marina and sea activities.

We have made progress in the sense that we stopped them when they

brought tugboat owners to block the entrance to the marina The police reacted

in our favor. They also tried to block our western exit with prefabricated

walls. That also was stopped. We believe that the law is prevailing and the

people’s rights are to some extent being respected.

Who Is showing support?

KHOURY Most of the government departments concerned, mainly the

ministries of transport and public works as well as the CDR, have been

extremely negative and slow. We are waiting for positive action from

the government so we can progress, but it has not been forthcoming.

I was expecting the current government to do a ·101 for the St. Georges.

It’s a shame that such an important historical landmark is stalled in the

interests of a private entity like Solidere.

If Hariri heads the new government, do you expect the problem to be

resolved In Solidere’s favor?

KHOURY Any government that respects itself should do what is right and legal.

It shouldn’t push against the St. Georges or favor Soljdere. We

are all under the law, and the law should prevail. We expect integrity, efficiency

and impartiality from governments, future or past.

How much has this problem cost you?

KHOURY This problem has cost us a lot of time and money. It has

been seven years that we’ve been fighting the administration. I would

say this certainly isn’t the best country to invest in considering the inefficiencies

of the administration, not to mention the bad faith that has

been shown towards the St. Georges. However, I am in my country and

no one will discourage me from continuing my efforts to improve the

situation of the St. Georges and the country.

How do you feel about going against a giant like Solidere?

KHOURY I feel extremely comfortable going against anyone who tries

to take my rights away. Under the law no one is a giant. We are all equal,

as we’ve heard our president tell us a number of times. In the end, rights

will prevail. I believe Solidere is illegal, and even though it might get

favors because of its financial strength, it cannot go beyond its limits

to the extent of taking our rights away.

Do you feel political pressure to keep this Issue low key?

KHO u RY I don’t think there are any political pressures. What makes the

issue sometimes appear in favor of Solidere is good advertising with large

means. Under the presidency of Mr. Lahoud there can’t be any pressures

made in favor of one entity against another if it is illegal. And most of the

actions of Solidere with respect to the St. Georges we believe are illegal.

Is there a compromise that you will accept?

KHOURY No government has asked us to compromise our rights. We

have made a lot of compromises with Solidere. Its presence around us is

due to our compromising and hasn’t proved healthy for us. There’s no more

room for compromises. Any further compromising would mean losing the

yacht club and the hotel.

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For your information

Environmental genocide

by Executive Editors October 15, 2000
written by Executive Editors

Green Lebanon, land of lush pine and cedar forests, has the

highest rate of deforestation in the world. The Human

Development Report published in 2000 by the United

Nations Development Program places Lebanon at the head of

163 nations, with a staggering deforestation rate of 8.1 %, between

1990 and I 995. In 1975, over 20% of the land was covered with

forests. Today, less than 5% of the land remains forested. During

the war, specifically from 1980 to 1990, the total deforestation rate

was 0.7%. As such, peace has been much more devastating to

Lebanon’s forests than the interminable war.

Greenpeace campaigner Zeina Al-Hajj enumerates many reasons,

including fires, out-of-control urban development and, most

importantly, quarrying. “It’s the most threatening problem for

forestation,” Al-Hajj says. Quarrying, which involves the actual

carving of a mountain in order to obtain stones and sand for construction,

is legal in Lebanon. There are, however, rules and regulations

that quarry operators have to follow. Unfortunately, these

regulations are seldom observed by quarry owners and rarely

enforced by the lackadaisical government.

The law states that all quarries should be located at least 1,000

meters from the sea, rivers and residential areas. The quarrying should

also be limited to a small area and a brief period of time (one month

for example), and the entire quarried area has to be restored once work

has been completed. But, as Lebanon’s oldest environmentalist

Abdallah Zakhya says, “people are

cheating on these laws.” Even though

quarry permits are given for a specific

amount of time, the administrators of

various municipalities have taken the

liberty of renewing permits indefinitely.

In addition, quarrying is being practiced

right in the middle of some residential

areas.

Zakhya recounts the trials of Knet, a

scenic old town in northern Lebanon.

Last year, the European Union (EU)

singled out Knet as the recipient of

international aid and sent a contingent to

plant numerous cedar trees in order to

rehabilitate a damaged forest. Six

months later, when EU representatives

returned to check on the trees, they discovered

that minister of the interior

Michel Murr had authorized a quarry in

the middle of the restored area, thereby destroying all of the work. ‘The

EU representatives packed up their bags and left,” recounts Zakhya.

Murr also authorized the horrific Nahr Ibrahim quarry, which has

completely deforested a once-pristine area. All that remains of the lush

hills is a big gaping hole near a polluted river. ‘The destruction of Nahr

Ibrahim should be construed as treason,” says Zakhya. “Murr is

authorizing the destruction of our collective memory and of our history.”

The quarried stones from Nahr Ibrahim were used to build the

Joseph Khoury Marina in Dbaye, in which Murr has a sizeable stake.

‘The very next day after Israel pulled out of the South,” Al-Hajj relates,

“Murr issued permits to set up quarries in the liberated areas.”

Nabil Ghanem, who previously worked as an advisor at the ministry

of the environment, says that there are 710 quarrying sites in

Lebanon, with 367 quarries in Mount Lebanon alone. Over 90% of

the quarried sites violate

laws. In addition, 300

quarries are located near

splendid archaeological

sites, causing irreparable

damage to monuments that

are thousands of years old

(such as the Mussailha castle

in Chekka). ”If the

quarry operators followed

the Lebanese law, it would

cost them an additional 7 1

cents per m’ quarried.

That’s all,” states Ghanem.

However, Lebanese Jaws

continue to be ignored.

The current minister of

the environment, Arthur

Nazarian, says that the

 ministry is too short-staffed and can only send people to check on

quarries when a complaint has been lodged. The ministry of environment

is only responsible for Lebanon’s three protected areas –

the Barouk cedar forest in the Chouf. Palm and rabbit islands off

the coast of Tripoli and Horsh Ehden. “Lebanon’s forests are

under the control of the ministry of agriculture,” says Nazarian. “We

can only hope that all these quarries will be transferred to the eastern

mountains, where are there are no forests and no inhabitants.

Unfortunately, in most cases the damage has been done and the

forests are gone for good.”

Although quarrying is perhaps the greatest danger to Lebanon’s

forests, fires, whether intentional or accidental, are also decimating

the nation’s few remaining trees. “According to the law,” Al-Hajj says,

“You cannot cut a single tree without permission from the ministry

of agriculture. So interested parties often bum an entire forest in order

to quarry an area. Forests are also burned to produce charcoal.”

A further fatal blow was dealt to the nation’s forests by the so called

building boom after the war. A financially strapped government

and chaotic administration issued innumerable building

permits without proper rules and regulations. As a result, the formerly

lush Harissa mountain in Kesrouan now resembles a hastily

built Monte Carlo. The stunning Metn hills above Beirut have

lost their pine cloak and are now bathed in gray cement.

“Lebanon used to be green,” says Ghanem, “but it is becoming

a desert. Uprooting trees and burning forests is the first step

toward desertification.” As the number of trees decreases in a particular

area, so does precipitation. And as Lebanon’s natural topsoil

is removed and used for construction, the thin remaining layer

of earth becomes unable to absorb water. Slowly, the underground

water supply is depleted. The earth dries up, and all that is

left is barren rock. ‘”If the current rate of deforestation continues,”

says Ghanem, “Lebanon will be a desert in 15 years.”

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For your information

Surviving on the streets

by Executive Editors October 15, 2000
written by Executive Editors

‘The government used to give licenses to these brothels,”

says Kara. “They were well regulated.” That’s not to

say that everything was rosy. Then like now, a woman

in difficult economic conditions might resort to prostitution to feed

herself or her family. But, says Kara, at least the trade was monitored

then. Women who worked in these brothels were required to undergo

regular examinations, public health standards were maintained and,

if a woman did want to get out, the vibrant economy of the time provided

more alternatives.

Like anyone else, a prostitute working in pre-war Lebanon would

likely find life easier than one trying to survive today. Al-Mutanaba

street was destroyed during the war. There are no legal brothels open

today, even though operating one is technically still legal for those

with a license. This has pushed the profession into the murky

 world of criminals, according to Kara. Desperate women, many

homeless and some in their early teens, become easy prey for the

pimps that prowl some of the city’s more seedy areas. They offer a

place to sleep, food to eat, but little in the way of money. Many of

these women soon find themselves trapped.

Farial ended up on the street at the age of 11 after her father died and

her brother went to prison. “I was walking down the street one day

when I met a women named Suha. She introduced me to other prostitutes

and that’s how I got into this profession,” she says. “I was just

a child. I didn’t know anything.” Farial started hooking off and on and

by the age of 13 she was pregnant. Today, at 19, she has been to prison

more than once and has two children, a third is on its way. Now married,

Farial has left her old profession. She is living with relatives

because neither she nor her husband can afford a place of their own.

Hilana has a similar story. Abandoned by her mother, she found herself

on the street at a young age. There she met her husband and was

married at 14, became pregnant and had a son. But the marriage failed.

Relatives refused to take her in. Her grandfather finally accepted to

watch her son, but she had to find her own place. Hilana started hooking

in bars to support herself and her child. “The bars were very dirty.

There were Sri Lankans, Syrians, Egyptians working there and you

couldn’t say no to a customer. If you said no, the owner would kick you

out,” she says. At 32, she continues to work as a prostitute. She has been

a bit more successful than most in the business and counts among her

past clients a former minister and a senior member of a religious political

party. “Society has generally rejected these girls,” says Kara.

There’s little in the way of statistics on prostitution in Lebanon and

the moral protection bureau of the security forces refused to speak to

EXECUTIVE. But, says Kara, “the number of women resorting to prostitution

is increasing in parallel with the economic crisis.” The vast

majority of them come from the poorest segments of society, she adds.

Most are illiterate. Very few possess the skills necessary to find a decent

job and support themselves. The case of Rita, who is in her 40s, is typical.

She rents a small flat for $175 a month and has children to feed.

She earns around $70 a month cleaning houses. “Where do I get the

rest?” she asks. “I stand on street comers waiting to be picked up.” Some

women do find a way out, either by landing a decent job or returning

to their families. But the numbers are few.

For those who do work the streets, the increase in competition over

the last few years, both from locals and foreigners, has driven down

prices. Hilana says that five years ago she could earn $400 to $500 a

night, but now earns less than half that amount. At the same time, prostitutes

risk arrest and abuse by clients, pimps and even the police.

Occasionally, the security forces will raid a bar, massage parlor or

brothel. The prostitutes are arrested but, they say, never their clients.

Kara feels that the situation would be better if the business was

regulated as it was before the war. “We hope that the law [allowing the

licensing of brothels] is reapplied because now there are hundreds

of brothels and they are all illegal,” she says. Proper regulations, she

adds, would at least control the spread of venereal diseases and reduce

the exploitation the women working in such establishments.

Ironically, the police do regulate the super nightclubs, most of

which bring women from Eastern Europe or other Arab countries to

work as cabaret dancers or barmaids. In order to obtain work permits,

the women must undergo regular gynecological checkups. ‘The government

knows that these are not just places to sit down and have a

drink,” says Kara. “It claims to provide controls, but these women have

permission to work in a bar, not as prostitutes.” Rarniz Geagea, manager

of the White Horse Super Nightclub in Maameltein, feels the health

regulations are justified. He says: “I recognize the girls as dancers. But

that doesn’t mean they don’t go out with some guy after the show.”

Regulating prostitution may help improve the situation. But

only education, a stable social environment and greater gender

equality is likely to curb the flow of women into the world’s oldest

profession. A healthy economy would not hurt either.

By Robert Tuttle

A reason for hope

In English, its name translates into House of Hope. Dar Al Amal has

been helping women in prostitution since the early 1970s. “If someone

is a prostitute and comfortable, we are not here to say change.

We want to provide an alternative for women who were pushed into

prostitution and want to leave the profession,” says Hoda Kara.

Between 45 and 50 women a year seek the organization’s help. Dar

Al Amal provides counseling and training in such skills as sewing or

making handicrafts. Kara says that the organization helps women as

much as possible but cannot provide shelter. The limited financing

from donors is not yet sufficient to fund a shelter. The organizationcan be reached at 01/483-508.

October 15, 2000 0 comments
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Editorial

Good riddance

by Executive Editors October 15, 2000
written by Executive Editors

EXECUTIVE would like to thank the outgoing government for its performance. Who else could have provided as much news-making material with such high entertainment value?

At times we couldn’t keep up with you – we’re only a

monthly magazine.

To show our deep appreciation, EXECUTIVE has put together a

list of the top ten achievements made under this government.

10. Said no to $2.7 billion from LibanCell and Cellis

9. Presided over a deteriorating fiscal situation: Debt

reached nearly $23 billion, deficit surpassed 50% and for

the first time debt servicing exceeded revenues in July

8. Raised taxes in a recession. For example, customs

increased several times and income tax went up 50%

7. Put a freeze on permits at Solidere, the largest company

in Lebanon

6. Failed to spend large chunks of aid and loans from the

World Bank, EU and Japan

5. Did not make good on its promises to reform the administration

and crack down on corruption

4. Threatened the international courier companies and

attempted to extract two-thirds of the market’s worth in the

form of taxes

3. Customs banned Intel chips

2. Put a lid on voice over IP and callback cards

1. Issam Naaman, minister of post and telecommunications,

gave his opinion on Standard & Poor’s: “Let them go to hell”

We hope that the incoming government will provide us with

a more positive list of achievements.

October 15, 2000 0 comments
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Feature

Going Broke

by Robert Tuttle September 29, 2000
written by Robert Tuttle

The dank and narrow hallway outside

the office of Ayman Oueidat,

Mount Lebanon’s chief bankruptcy

judge, is almost always cluttered with visitors,

some of whom wait in line for more

than an hour for the chance to see him.

“The country is falling apart,” shouts the

impatient judge to two lawyers bickering in

front of his desk. “Try to solve this problem the office of Ayman Oueidat,

Mount Lebanon’s chief bankruptcy

judge, is almost always cluttered with visitors,

some of whom wait in line for more

than an hour for the chance to see him.

“The country is falling apart,” shouts the

impatient judge to two lawyers bickering in

front of his desk. “Try to solve this problem

between yourselves.” Smart advice.

With the economy near comatose, some

of Lebanon’s five bankruptcy courts have

been working at full throttle. “We’re seeing

35 new cases a month,” says Oueidat,

busily flicking through files on his desk. In

Mount Lebanon alone, there are more than

1, I 00 bankruptcy cases currently pending,

up from 800 two years ago. Among the

more notable enterprises to have gone bust

in recent times are Mesir and Phoenix

insurance firms. The publicly listed company

Etemit, one of the region’s largest pipe

manufacturers, fi led for bankruptcy protection

at the beginning of last year after

suffering $25 million in losses between

1996 and 1998 (see box).

Bigger caseloads have put added strains

on the already overburdened judiciary.

Bankruptcies can get bogged down in

court for as long as a decade, although

most are resolved within three years.

Financially strapped business people often

flee the country before their case lands

before a judge, taking a sizable wad of

their lenders’ money with them. And at the

end of the whole expensive and time-consuming

process, a lender often gets back

only a tiny fraction of the money he is

owed. “Bankruptcy is good when you have

no other alternative,” says Rashed

Ghanem, central manager for Bank of

Beirut, explaining why banks are reluctant

to take a delinquent client to court.

Many legal experts believe that the bankruptcy

system is in desperate need of an

overhaul. “We have good laws but they

need to be updated,” says Andre Nader, a

bankruptcy lawyer. Lebanon’s bankruptcy

laws date back to the 1940s and were borrowed

from the French. But, unlike France,

Lebanon has never bothered to revise them

as business evolved. “One can hardly say that  the legal environment is adapted to the modem

economy,” says lawyer Akram Azouri.

Unlike the US, where scores of companies

file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy every year,

Lebanon’s bankruptcy laws provide faltering

businesses with little protection from angry

creditors. Companies or traders are usually

declared bankrupt only after the.y have been

sued for failing to pay their debts. The conditions

for filing for concurdui prevemi_f –

which allows businesses to repay their

Joans, in part or in whole, over one to three

years – are so strict that many legal professionals

cannot recall a single case when the

courts have allowed it. More than half of a

company’s creditors – claimants to no less

than three-quarters of the money owed –

must approve the tenns of the concordat

preventif. And the business must present

accurate and detailed books for the three

years prior to its bankruptcy declaration.

“The laws are harsh,” says Abdo Lahoud,

a bankruptcy attorney. “There is no system

to help the business person pay back his

debts.” Judges have limited flexibility in

dealing with an insolvent company. lf a

concordat preventif fails, a judge can do

little more than declare the business insolvent

and liquidate its assets.

This, when often a simple

restructuring of the company

might be enough to get it

back in the black.

The French, by contrast,

gave the power of redressement

to their courts in the

1960s. There, a judge can

appoint a receiver who has

the authority to change a

company’s management,

sell off assets or do whatever

it takes to keep the business

afloat and get creditors

their money back. “The

concept of bankruptcy at

the beginning of the century

was to liquidalt: Lht: l:Urnpany.

The concept in the 21st

century is to save the company

and liquidate only by default,” says

Azouri. ‘The interest of creditors is to gel an

enterprise back on its feet.”

Despite calls by both lawyers and judges for

bankruptcy refonn, parliament has failed to take action. But more than just new legislation

is required. Inefficient tax collection

(the rate of income tax evasion was recently

estimated by Banque Audi to be 75%)

means that businesses have little incentive to

maintain accurate books. The result is that few

struggling businesses qualify for bankruptcy

protection. The scarcity of official records also

makes it more difficult for the judiciary to

tral:k down assets or business persons once a

business has been declared insolvent.

Some, including Oueidat, feel that the

laws, although old, are not the problem. In

France, he says, there are growing calls to

reduce the judge’s power of redressemenl.

Hopelessly sick companies, says Oueidat,

are often kept limping along under the

court’s protection as their creditors wait

endlessly for the return of their money. In

the end, says Oueidat, “Lebanon’s bankruptcy

laws are good, it’s the economy

that’s bad.”

Eternit-gate

N othing demonstrates the shortcomings of the bankruptcy system better than

the story of Etemit. In what is probably the biggest bankruptcy case In postwar

Lebanon, the publicly listed pipe manufacturer filed for concordat preventif

in January 1999, after accumulating a debt of $25 miHion over thr8e years. The company

wants half its debts erased, but the courts have been mysteriously tardy in

issuing a decision on the case. “The court is very late and I find no explanation for

this,” says Akram Azouri, lawyer for Lebanon Holdings, an investment fund that

bought a 20% stake in Etemit. Azouri, along with the investment bank Lebanon

Invest, which sank $3.6 million into the pipe manufacturer, sued Etemit for fraudulent

accounting. But until the court agrees to either accept or reject the concordat

preventif, by law, any lawsuit against the company remains on hold.

Lebanon’s banknJptcy laws provide a specific set of criteria by which courts have

to decide whether to accept or reject a company’s concordat preventif. If the judge

agrees to the terms of the bankruptcy, he has 30 days in which to call a meeting of

the creditors, who must vote on the tenns. “The court did not

take a position on this case even though the law says that a

decision should be taken quickly,” says Azouri. Some individuals

involved in the Etemit affair say privately that they suspect

political interference in the case. The pipe manufacturer

has worked for some powerful clients in recent times,

including the Syrian ministry of defense. Bemartt Sham, one

of Etemit’s lawyers, fervently denies any political meddling.

“That’s not at all true,” he says. “The delay Is not unusual

because the company has many relations with parties both in

Lebanon and outside. It will take time for the courts to make

sure the concordat can be implemented.”

But the courts have recently started to move on the case.

Recently, some Etemit shareholders went to court to demand

that a judicial administrator be appointed to re-audit the company’s

books and run the company until a new board of

directors can be elected. Etemit’s board of directors, who have

been quarreling over control of the company for the last few

months, were reportedly split over the appointment of a judicial

administrator. Board members Riad Mrad and Salim

Khalifah were strongly opposed to the plan, while Tony Awad,

who became general manager after the former director Pierre

Abboud was forced to resign in June 1999 (Abboud has since disappeared), was

not. The court was supposed to rule on the appointment of a judicial administrator

at end of August, but the judge in the case, in a puzzling move, delayed her decision.

Meanwhile, a ruling on the concordat preventif remains on hold.

September 29, 2000 0 comments
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Feature

A world apart

by Kirsten Vance September 29, 2000
written by Kirsten Vance

A t just 27 years of age, Halimeh is

the mother of six young children.

Her husband is a laborer and

looks for work on a day-to-day basis.

Sometimes there is none. With about $100

to $130 to survive on each month, life is a

constant struggle for this family of eight that

inhabits the northern village ofTekrit, high

in the remote mountains of Akkar. “We

manage to get by with enough food so we

don’t go hungry, but we can’t afford

healthcare or education for the kids,” says

Halimeh, adding that one child is handicapped

and requires extra medical attention.

While there is running water available, the

whole area is devoid of a sewage system.

Doubling as a bathroom with just a washboard

and bucket to one side, the family’s

cramped stone-floor kitchen adjoins a shed

that houses a cow. The stench of manure

permeates the air.

About half a kilometer up the road, lies the

town’s derelict public school, where annual

costs are about $ 130 per child. There

are no computers, no library, no gymnasium

and virtually no lab equipment or art supplies

for their learning. Squeezed in like sardines,

the kids sit three to a bench that is

meant to seat only two. The floors are bare

cement, the wall paint badly chipped and the

chairs and tables beat up. Naked light

bulbs provide dim lighting in the classrooms.

“I can’t tell you how difficult it is to

teach in such circumstances,” says Abdou

Ayoub, the school’s director. “And now

the government has created a new educational

program that is impossible to implement

with such facilities.”

The inhabitants of this remote village are

some of Lebanon’s seemingly forgotten people. And while there is no official poverty

line that adheres to international standard

measures, experts on the subject say poverty

is becoming a growing concern in terms of

a deprivation of basic needs and a drop in the

resources of households. “I think that the situation

is getting worse,” says RandaAboulHosn,

assistant resident representative of

the United Nations Development Program

(UNDP). “I don’t think we’ve hit the roof yet,

but it is pretty bad.”

About one-third of the Lebanese population

falls below the deprivation threshold,

while about 7% to 8% are living in abject

poverty, says Adib Nehme, project manager

for improving living conditions with the

ministry of social affairs (MoS). That

stands roughly in correlation with a 1998 survey

by the central administration for statistics

(CAS), in which 37 .1 % of households

stated that their income was not sufficient to

cover their needs. Some 40% of five-person

households earn less than LLS00,000 a

month, according to the latest nationwide survey by CAS in 1997, while another 19%

earn under LL550,000 a~d 6% make less

than LL300,000. Economists are quick to

point out, however, that these income figures

do not include money sent from relatives

abroad. The general labor confederation

recently issued a report stating that 48% of

the Lebanese population is livmg below the

poverty line, but that study has been branded

as overstated and politically motivated by

economists and others working in the field.

Lebanon isn’ t Burkina Faso or Ethiopia.

Nonetheless a significant portion of the

population endures poor living conditions.

Many talk of the two faces of Lebanon – the

center and the periphery. This means that the

further an area is from large centers, especially

Beirut, the poorer it tends to be.

Compared to the national average of 32%,

more than 60% of households in Akkar,

Herrnel and Bint Jbeil are considered to be

living below the deprivation threshold,

according to a joint UNDP-MoS study on

the satisfaction of basic needs. (These

include housing, water and sewage, education

and income-related indicators.) In

another six districts, largely on the peripheries,

40% to 60% falls into that category

(see maps below).

But because these areas have relatively

small populations, in absolute numbers the

poor are m~stly concentrated in urban

areas – the southern suburbs of Beirut,

Baalbek, the northern suburbs of Beirut. The

one exception is Akkar, which at 12.5%, is

the district that is home to the largest number

of Lebanon’s poor. “This is because

Akkar is the only exception in the rural

population where the people are still living

there,” says Nehme. “Registration of those

urban areas showed that they are largely

from rural areas and migrated to the cities.”

As is generally the case for Lebanon’s

outlying areas, the poor living conditions of

Halimeh and her fellow inhabitants of

Tekrit is not simply the result of the economic

recession: Their deep-rooted poverty

is the consequence of decades of

neglect. Even before the civil war, this

country was marked by unbalanced

regional development, with a concentration

of high-income generating activities in Beirut and Mount Lebanon and higher

levels of poverty on the peripheries. “But

the war caused the major breakdown of the

standard of living conditions,” says

Nehme. Some 800,000 citizens were displaced

and 170,000 housing units were

damaged or destroyed. Rampant inflation

wreaked havoc on people’s purchasing

power, education and health standards

deteriorated and losses to infrastructure

and production facilities were in excess

of $25 billion.

Now with the continued recession, high

unemployment and high cost of living, people

are being dragged even further down.

“There are certain levels of intervention

that need to be done immediately and that

should be pure charity for those way down

there. Other levels of interventions are

required in order to keep people from

falling into poverty,” says Aboul-Hosn.

“And there’s a third level of intervention that

is needed to keep the rich from getting richer

at the expense of the poor.”

To be fair, some measures are being taken

by both non-governmental organizations

(see box) and the Lebanese administration,

including the creation of the ministry for

the displaced, the development plan for the

South and the opening of health centers in the

regions. But the impact of such projects is

mostly weak because of limited finances,

political interference and bureaucracy.

There is no national plan dedicated to

reducing poverty and redressing disparities.

But according to those working in the

field, that is precisely what must be included

in this country’s economic development policy. “If we don’t have ecgnomic growth

and productivity, we cannot have social

welfare,” says Nehme. “But it’s not

enough. We should have a more comprehensive

policy that deals with both the economic

and social components.”

Lebanon’s post-war economic policy has

focused on monetary stability, eontrolling

inflation and rebuilding infrastructure. At the

same time, there has been

increased taxation, minimal job

creation, little effective social

spending and higher prices on

public services despite their ineffectiveness.

The negative repercussions

of these have been felt

more acutely in the less privileged

segments of society. “The majority

of the annual budget goes

toward salaries, but the impact and

output of this administration is

minimal, meaning the private sector

charges you for services that the

state cannot provide, regulate, delegate

to civil societies or decentralize

to the municipalities,” says

Aboul-Hosn. “So you’re paying

on both ends. One of the main

causes of the rise of poverty is the

fact that we are spending more for

much much less.”

Combating poverty through a

national plan will be no easy task. It will

require the coordination of numerous ministries

as well as NGOs in order to address

a wide range of issues. These include

basics like running water, electricity and

sewage; a readjustment of wage scales; a

more equitable taxation system; job creation

and improving agricultural infrastructure.

And despite the perceived advance of

Lebanon’s education and healthcare, these

are two sectors that need special attention,

according to experts. Two areas where the

private sector has picked up the public sector’s

slack, education and healthcare eat up

more than 20% of the household budget.

Education is considered to be one of the

most important factors in breaking the

cycle of poverty, but the entire Lebanese

educational system is seen as inadequate for

the demands of today’s marketplace. And for

those who cannot afford private schools,

the public system – although substandard at best – still costs an average $300 a year per

child. The illiteracy rate in Lebanon is

13.6%, according to Nehme, but climbs as

high as 30% in the district of Akkar.

Despite efforts to improve the health sector,

estimates put the out-of-pocket portion

of the total national health bill at more than

50%. The high participation of the private

sector is reflected in the high cost and disparities,

while accessibility to primary

health care is still problematic. For example,

the infant mortality rate is about three times

higher in the North than in Beirut, while 58%

of the total population are not covered by any

insurance scheme.

For a country that has made little headway

since the end of the war, such wideranging

structural changes are indeed a

tall order. Many believe it is simply a

question of management and priorities.

Back in Tekrit, where Halimeh and other

villagers fight a daily battle to make ends

meet, it’s a question of whether this country’s

leaders are sincere in their apparent

desire to improve the living conditions of

the less privileged.

Providing solutions

While those in the capital argue the merits of wide-ranging reform, the YMCA is

quietly working the beat to improve the living conditions of Lebanon’s underprivileged

through its community development programs. “We are among the major

promoters of rural development, because the rural areas in this country have been

the hardest hit and the most deprived since independence,” says Ghassan Sayah,

head of the YMCA’s Lebanon chapter. “We are helping people to make a living where

they are, rather than them quitting the area.”

The YMCA’s program addresses developmental issues through its six cluster programs

in Akkar, the Bekaa and the South. The communities

themselves are expected to provide 30% of total

funding, while $6.5 million is provided by USAIO. They

are also expected to set their own priorities and

decide where the money should be spent. The idea

is to make the inhabitants of these areas responsible,

accountable and partners in the project, so that

they are in charge of their own development.

Inhabitants of these areas are also aided in finding

ways of earning a living. One example is the recent

creation of a cottage industry for processed food in

Akkar, in a town whose only source of employment

had been the army, agriculture and the school.

Run by a cooperative, it counts over 80 products,

including sun-dried tomatoes and fruits, herbs,

vinegar and rose water using newly introduced

techniques for standardization, quality and

hygiene. Selling under the brand name Rural

Delights, its products are being sold at small health

stores and Monoprix, while negotiations are underway

with Bou Khalil, Idriss and Spinneys. One

achievement was in convincing the conservative

Muslim community that women should be fullfledged

members of the cooperative.

In the village of Akkar el Atika, massive road works

are underway to improve access for agricultural vehicles, while a potable water network

has been installed for the area. Higher up in the mountains of Akkar, a three-kilometer

irrigation channel with accompanying agricultural access has been installed. This

project directly benefits four villages and some 3,000 families, while reduced water loss

has allowed the cultivation of additional land. The YMCA also has a medical aid program

for the chronically ill that the government funds with $2 million a year. Through

more than 300 dispensaries, the YMCA is helping some 16,000 chronically ill patients.

“I think the Y is lighting a candle,” says Sayah. “We believe that lighting a candle is better

than swearing against darkness.”

September 29, 2000 0 comments
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Cover story

The great mistake

by Kirsten Vance & Peter willems September 29, 2000
written by Kirsten Vance & Peter willems

Could you imagine the deficit drops over 20% by the end of

the year? Debt servicing, now exceeding revenues,

becomes less of a burden? A healthier climate renews

investor confidence? Believe it or not, this is not so far-fetched. All

that would be needed is a more rational government. One that would

have resolved t~e ongoing dispute with LibanCell and Cellis and

accepted the two companies’ offers for licenses with an upfront payment

of $1.8 billion. “If the government allocated $1.5 billion of that

to the budget, we would have seen a deficit of around 32% at the

end of2000,” says Marwan Iskandar, economist.

But this wouldn’t have been restricted to a quick fix of this

year’s fiscal shortcomings. More could have followed. A third

license would have been sold, possibly with a similar price tag. Then

comes privatization, the initial 25% stake in the telecom. And don’t

forget the third generation – auctioning off UMTS licenses. This

would mean a continuous flow of revenue to the treasury. Oh, how

different things would look if the ball got rolling. Markets would

view this favorably, believes Marwan Barakat, head of research at

Banque Audi, instilling confidence in the Lebanese pound to allow

interest rates to drop.

No go. Spearheaded by lssam Naaman, the minister of post and

telecommunications, the government blew it. Despite repeated

calls to the ministry, EXECUTIVE received no comments from

Naaman. The offers, worth a combined $2.7 billion for 20-year licenses,

were shot down. On par with its usual behavior, the government

didn’t even send official rejection notices to the two companies. “We

have withdrawn our offer,” says Salah Bouraad, chairman and genera! manager of Cell is, “after the council of ministers made a decision

to reject it.” According to prime minister Selim Hoss, they’re

holding out for something better. “We want the contracts to run their

course,” says Hoss. “A 20-year license would be unfair. When the

current contracts expire, we can get better terms.” And while

Naaman talked up possible betteroffers from other international companies,

most believe that the offer was as good as it gets. Financial

consultants recommended to LibanCell an initial payment of $700

million, $200 million less than the actual offer. Plus, with UMTS on

the horizon, in a year’s time GSM may lose some of its luster.

With political wrangling at play behind the scenes, the council

of ministers couldn’t come to a unanimous decision and passed

the sordid affair onto the auditing department’s lap. Its findings?

Over $1 bill ion in penalties and fines should be paid by the two

companies to the government as compensation for violating the

contract. That’s about 6% of Lebanon’s entire GDP. It would also

suck the lifeblood out of LibanCell and Cellis as the amount is

equivalent to an outrageous 66% of their combined gross revenues

for the five-year period to the end of 1999. Could the government

get any greedier? The contracts already entitle the stale to 20% of revenues, plus municipal taxes, plus the 6 cent tax on talk time.

“It doesn’t make any sense,” says Kamal Shehadi, a telecom consultant.

Indeed not.

CeUis got the worst of the auditing department’s sting. Of the total

amount, the France Telecom-Mikati Group venture is expected to pay

$687 million. LibanCell, which is 14% owned by Finland’s Sonera,

was slapped with $371.2 million. “Our gross is $800 million. We paid

$400 million so if we were to pay $400 million more it would be a

total disaster, because our profits are only $ 140 million,” says

Hussein Rifai, chairman and general managerofLibanCell. “So where

do we get the remaining amount?” The most talked about alleged violation

is surpassing the 125,000 limit each for a total of $353.5 million.

But the biggest hit was in charges for microwave links-a mindboggling

$658.3 million. “It is quite clear that the government

couldn’t stop the cellular companies from continuing their operations;

they couldn’t get somebody to substitute the two operators so they

had to pull their strength away,” says lskandar. “ln order to compensate

for this setback, they have been trying to prove that the companies

owe more money than the government asked for.” Iskandar does, however,

agree that LibanCell and Cellis owe something for infringements.

But he estimates the amount to be a more reasonable $80-100 million

for each company.

From loud accusations, threats and ultimatums, the government

has since slipped into a quiet mode. It now intends to use the

auditing department’s report to get its money through legal

means. The government has already filed its case in local court. “We

needed the opinion given by the auditing department to support our

claim going to court,” says Hoss. “We want them to pay damages

based on their previous actions. We want our right. It’s our goal.”

According to Rifai, LibanCell has not received any injunction or

formal notification with respect to the auditing department’s

report. Meantime, the government has done a flip-flop. It has finally

agreed to appoint an arbitrator in accordance with the two companies’

request for arbitration, having previously said they would

rather break the contract than accept arbitration.

But that’s exactly how LibanCell and Cellis would prefer to

resolve the dispute. The two companies maintain that they are not

guilty of any breaches of contract. “I confirm that all the audits performed

by our auditors and other audits done by our mother company,

France Telecom, never never found any one of these accusations

that have been directed toward us,” says Bouraad.

EXECUTIVE obtained a copy of the Simmons & Simmons (S&S)

report that was lo advise Booz-Allen & Hamilton on the two contracts.

Concerning the cap on the number of subscribers, S&S found

such a limit unlikely and that the number of subscribers should be based on demand (see box). ltjs also odd that

the government would want to restrict the

expansion of a network under a build-operate-

transfer agreement, when at the end of the

contract ownership would revert back to the

state. Cellular penetration in Lebanon is at

19% but has the potential to reach 35% to

40%, according to Rifai. ~

As the row continues, LibanCell and

Cellis have both put a virtual halt to investments,

putting money only into maintaining

the network and service. ” It’s a sad feeling of

lost opportunities when we see how all the

Arab world is developing, growing, how

they’re really forging forward,” says Rifai.

“Because we were pioneers in the cellular field, to just stagnate right

now is something that’s extremely frustrating.”

So

is there a chance for the gauge on the stress meter to come down?

Some believe that a change of government will

go a long way in improving the state’s relations

with the two cellular operators. “Whichever

government comes into power in October,

the first thing that they would do is settle the

total amount of infringements and get the

$1.8 billion,” says Iskandar. Others are not so

sure that a new government will necessarily

bring about an improved climate. Regardless

of the faces it’s virtually guaranteed that political

and vested interests will override the

interests of the nation. Even if a different

administration comes into power with a new

attitude, mending relations and finalizing a deal

may not be so easy. “The offers the companies made are not on the table anymore. You need negotiations to start

again,” says Shehadi. “But frankly I don’t see any hope for this with out first getting some kind of telecom reform.”

The government could just go straight ahead with selling licenses

but there would be no guarantee of improved operating conditions

without a modern telecom law. “You’ ll have problems with

the administration every day of the week because the rules of the

game are antiquated. Just like the rules of game don’t allow the

couriers to operate, they don’t allow telecom to operate,” says

Shehadi. “This cannot be resolved unless you go back and design

new regulations.” The creation of an independent regulatory body

is one of the most important aspects of reform, according to

Charbel Nahas, an economist. “It is a poor choice to link privatization

negotiations to the council of ministers: They are politicians

subject to their constituencies, following their political careers,” says

Nahas. He proposes an institution similar to the central bank,

which is largely free of political influence. The banking industry

happens to be the most profitable and well-regulated sector in

Lebanon. While a new telecom law has been drafted, it’s been stuck

at the council of ministers for half a year. The law would then still

have to be passed by parliament, which can be a lengthy procedure.

Algeria is a good example of a developing country that proved

able to get its act together much better and quicker than Lebanon.

Starting from scratch last spring, the Maghreb country managed to

create a telecom law and pass it through the council of ministers,

parliament and senate all in just four months. Algeria is now in the

midst of international tenders to find legal and financial consultants

to advise on auctioning a GSM license, realizing the benefit of getting

expert advice. It is thus less likely to find itself with the contractual

mess the Lebanese government is in now. Despite

Algeria’s own political problems, the government managed to push

through telecom reform, citing the importance of using telecom as

a tool to stimulate economic growth. “Regulatory uncertainty is

something that frightens investors. This is reality, it’s the enemy of

foreign investment,” says Rifai. “Whenever there is regulatory

uncertainty, they would associate it with a higher risk profile; they’d

be less interested in coming to the country or they would require a much higher return on their investment.”

Along with reforming the telecom, the government needs to reconsider its policy on tariffs. Not only are phones calls overpriced

compared to much of the world, but so too are leased lines, satellite

and microwave 1 inks. Instead of looking at telecom pure I y as a source

of cash flow for the treasury, the administration should view it as an

important sector to spur economic growth, create employment and

encourage investment. As the rest of the world moves into the New

Economy, Lebanon risks being stuck in the Old World. The bulk of

the money that LibanCell and Cellis are expected to pay, according

to the auditing report, is for unpaid charges on microwave links. “I

think that the government could get more revenues for the use of the

900 MHz band and for the microwave but not at the tariffs these guys

are applying. There’s no reasonable tariff for microwave just like

there’s no reasonable rate for leased lines.” says Shehadi. “This to

me is the bigger problem because these are the bottlenecks to the

development of telecom and any form of IT in Lebanon. And that is

what the government should be looking at.”

But that would take vision – something the government has

shown it lacks. Without a resolution on the telecom front, don’t

expect the economy to move out of its sickly state any time soom

– This advice is addressed to Booz-Allen & Hamilton for the

purpose of its advice to the government of Lebanon in relation

to the possibility of increasing the revenues that it can

obtain from mobile telecommunications services.

– In certain respects the terms of the contracts are not totally

transparent and the impact of supervening law, documentation

and discussions is not clear. We have, therefore, in some

cases set out the likely alternative constructions and given an

indication of what is, in our view, the most likely meaning.

– The MPT also has the right to implement itself, or consider

. licenses, for other telecommunication services … no earlier than

six years after the notification date. The operators are given

the right to participate in such licenses before a third party is

invited. It might be suggested that this paragraph is not limited,

by the words of the contract, to mobile services but that

it gives the operators the right of first refusal over any licenses

for telecommunications services.

– It seems to us that the contracts purported to impose on the

operators only minimum standards in requirements for network

roll-out, rather than an upper limit on the number of subscribers

… A restriction on subscriber numbers is certainly

unusual when we consider international practice … It appears

to us that the contract, in general, intended that the operators

were entitled to meet market demand for mobile services.

– There may also be arguments that a failure to provide services

to customers over and above these limits if there is sufficient

demand is contrary to the principles of public service.

– Given that the position is not entirely free from doubt and

there is no certainty that a subscriber cap would be upheld

by a court or arbitral tribunal, we consider that it may be prudent

for the government of Lebanon to negotiate with the

operators on the basis that it is not certain that there is a subscriber

cap whether of 125,000 or 250,000 each .. .

– We consider that any exclusive use of frequencies only

apply to frequencies in the GSM 900 band … We believe the

correct interpretation must be that no exclusivity can apply

to the 1800 band ..

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Since its first edition emerged on the newsstands in 1999, Executive Magazine has been dedicated to providing its readers with the most up-to-date local and regional business news. Executive is a monthly business magazine that offers readers in-depth analyses on the Lebanese world of commerce, covering all the major sectors – from banking, finance, and insurance to technology, tourism, hospitality, media, and retail.

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