Society

Something to talk about

by Michele Azrak, Zeina Loutfi & Ramsay G. Najjar
written by Michele Azrak, Zeina Loutfi & Ramsay G. Najjar

The single biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place.” One could easily argue that in this statement George Bernard Shaw aptly described the affliction of the world of corporate communication for the longest time. Communication is the exchange of information between people. Yet most companies have left out the word exchange by talking at people instead of talking with them. In today’s increasingly connected world, the power lies in the hands of consumers, who are inducing change in the communication landscape by demanding less noise and more value. While this does not necessarily imply a drastic departure from what already exists, the coming years will surely see major improvements in how we use what we already have — knowledge, tools and platforms.
What is certain today is that this intrinsically complex communication landscape is forcing companies to look within and refocus on the value they have to offer for a new generation of consumers and stakeholders. Understanding where the future of communication lies is driving companies to improve experiences and relationships, and to do so it has become obvious that companies need to focus on delivering valuable content.

Content is still king
In the increasingly virtually vocal society in which we live, everyone has a voice and wants to use it. The amount of content being published online is growing exponentially; with so much competing for consumers’ attention, companies need to become more relevant and authentic in order to break through all the noise. For this, companies should favor the creation and distribution of valuable and compelling content over controlled messages and fabricated sales pitches. The primary intent of such a content-driven approach is to engage and build meaningful relationships with consumers, rather than to sell to them.

Whereas this approach has been around for a while, the focus had been on the quantity of content, with companies trying to publish as much content as frequently as possible. However, it has become clear that the future lies in quality-driven content. Companies should start creating content that educates, informs, inspires and entertains. This can be in the form of blog posts, newsletters, white papers, live presentations, podcasts, standard and micro-videos, and the list goes on.

There have been several success stories so far, with top global brands leading the pack. Last year, Coca-Cola made the news when it completely revamped its website and re-introduced it as an online magazine entitled the Coca-Cola Journey. It featured articles on entertainment, environment, health and sports, later adding food and music channels. The difference of course is that the content in that “magazine” is subjective, not objective: it is stories that favor Coca-Cola’s brands, products and interests. HSBC is also showing the way with its Global Connections website, which helps in the positioning of the bank as an authority on international business with in-depth articles and strategies for global businesses — rarely mentioning HSBC.

Coming to our part of the world, we have started to see local and regional companies begin to dabble in content creation and publishing, but these fledgling efforts remain far from really delivering brand-agnostic content that is seeded with inspiration and that covers topics customers deeply care about.  Though quality content creation is challenging and time-consuming,  it will allow companies to distance themselves from their competition, attract and maintain an audience, and create and sustain business opportunities.

A shift to more dynamic storytelling
It is important to highlight however that it is not enough to simply create interesting content and put it out there. Without a coherent story that brings together the content, one would just end up with more noise and confusion. The goal is to create a unified and coordinated experience for the audience, and to develop deeper emotional connections with them. This can only be done by storytelling, which should be the thread that links the content together across all channels.

Even then, not just any storytelling will do. The new reality we live in also means a shift from one-way storytelling to dynamic storytelling that factors in the consumers’ voice. Moving away from the traditional in-house generated stories, companies need to now focus on stories that spark a conversation with their consumers as well as encourage and make the most of consumer-generated stories. Following through with the Coca-Cola example, the company has established itself as the leader in storytelling, creating a whole stimulating world around the brand, with compelling stories that strongly involve consumers.

While companies in the region have started to listen to what is being said about their brands, there remains a long road ahead: they need to start having a conversation and get the audience involved in it.

Rethinking the landscape
As companies alter the way they communicate with consumers and increase their focus on content, they will need to rethink many of their channels. The most notable one would be their website, which should now adapt to a more consumer-focused philosophy and accentuate the brand’s story flow through design. Instead of being static, websites are starting to look more like magazine portals with greater focus on the content produced with combinations of rich articles, interviews, opinions, interactive functionality, visuals and videos. Soft drinks leaders such as Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Red Bull are setting the trend and their websites are worth checking out.

This does not mean that the main corporate sections such as investor information, executives’ biographies, and press releases are no longer present on the sites; these are just relegated to the sidelines. And this certainly does not imply that all companies should just stop what they are doing and jump on the bandwagon, especially the less established brands that will continue to need a more business-oriented website for some time to come. They could start with enriching their site with more pictures, sounds and videos, and most importantly thoroughly plan and understand the consumer’s journey through their website before diving into any redesign.

Furthermore, simply creating good content on a visually engaging website is not nearly enough as thousands of pieces of great content go unread every day. The challenge will also be for companies to focus on effectively getting their content outside of their website. They should understand how content spreads across the web and find ways to reach new prospects by amplifying great content through multiple channels. For example, Forbes provides a digital platform for sponsored content, but one that is high in quality and that answers to audiences’ needs. Companies like SAP, Merill Lynch and Microsoft have been writing and distributing thought leadership content that is as interesting as pieces written by reporters and knowledgeable contributors, and their content seems to be viewed for the same amount of time as editorial content.

Content-driven communication does not yield value solely to already established brands. While some companies may be restricted in terms of means or resources, no company is too small to experiment with this approach as long as it crafts a clear communication strategy, evaluates its performance, and makes changes along the way accordingly. With titles such as content marketing manager, director of content, or even chief content officer popping up more than ever before, companies in the years ahead will have to embrace content-focused communication as part of their overall communication strategy. They simply can’t afford to be content (pun intended) with staying on the sidelines in the content world we live in. You can only toe the water so long before you have to dive in headfirst.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Comment

Uncoiling Iran

by Gareth Smith
written by Gareth Smith

Nothing raises the entrepreneurial juices like the smell of a new market. Last month’s implementation of November’s interim Geneva nuclear deal between Iran and the world powers alerted United States and European companies to the prospect that, sooner or later, sanctions will loosen and Iran will open up.
The business potential is immense. Income that could be generated from the world’s largest gas reserves, at 33.6 trillion cubic meters or 18 percent of the global total, and the fourth largest oil reserves, at 157 billion barrels or 9.4 percent of global reserves, would make the Iranians wealthy.

Lifting sanctions would make possible the 8 percent average annual growth rate envisaged in the Five Year Plan of 2010-15. Iran is like a pent-up spring, pushed back by US and European sanctions which in two years have halved oil exports and obstructed access to both insurance and dollar markets, as well as by older sanctions that stymied the development of gas reserves. The economy contracted 5.6 percent in 2012 and 3 percent in 2013, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

But the spring is starting to uncoil. Since November, the clearest excitement has been among car manufacturers, specifically mentioned in the interim Geneva agreement. Peugeot and Renault have led the way, with past experience working with Iranian producers Khodro and Saipa, and envision taking Iran’s annual vehicle production back from 2013’s 385,000 to the peak of 1.6 million reached in 2011.

The agreement also included facilitating financial channels for humanitarian trade, including medicines. Pharmaceutical companies are keen to tap into a market that analysts put at $3 billion annually with 30 percent imports. Germany’s Merck is looking for local manufacturers to co-produce two of its medicines. The French Sanofil, which licenses products to an Iranian manufacturer, is planning new product launches to improve last year’s $3.7 million profit on sales of $10.2 million.

The ‘little Satan’ will not be left behind. British exports to Iran plunged 68.2 percent from 2005 to 2011, the largest fall among leading European Union countries, but during last month’s visit of parliamentarians to Tehran, Lord Lamont, chairman of the British-Iranian Chamber of Commerce and former chancellor of the exchequer, said British pharmaceutical companies and vehicle manufacturers were among those very interested in Iran.

Such companies selling in Iran, or investing in joint production, will have consequences for the country. In the longer term a return to high economic growth, coupled with substantial outside investment, may well transform it. Firstly, high growth and ‘opening up’ imply economic liberalization. Thus far, privatization has been muted and often involved transferring shares to quasi-state bodies or pension funds. This reflects the absence of foreign investment and shortage of domestic private-sector capital. But the 2006 decision by the Ayatollah Khamenei to back privatization of most state-owned industry is compatible with vibrant private banking, more effective capital markets and wider foreign investment.

Secondly, high economic growth is likely to increase Iranians’ expectations for material goods and better job opportunities, especially among the 35 percent of the 77 million population aged 15 ­to 29, the highest proportion recorded worldwide.  Growth may also encourage aspirations for greater social or political freedoms. In all cases, managing expectations will pose a challenge for the leaders of the Islamic Republic. After all, economic growth was high, albeit uneven across sectors, under the Shah prior to 1979.

Thirdly are implications for energy markets. Even a short-term, limited increase in oil exports — given a likely lower OPEC output in 2014, projected to drop 500,000 barrels a day by the US’s Energy Information Administration — implies other OPEC members, notably Saudi Arabia, will be cutting back. Fourthly, are political implications, in central and south Asia, and the Middle East. Supplying energy and simply being richer will enhance Iran’s influence — posing a greater challenge for opponents and critics so far unwilling to accept what the Iranian leadership sees as its legitimate role as a regional power.

Should this be seen as a disaster? Greater trade — especially alongside educational exchanges, more travel for businesspeople and simple citizens — may not just break down barriers set by sanctions. It may enmesh Iran more closely in the outside world, giving all parties more incentives to resolve disputes diplomatically. A more open, richer Iran may be more at peace with the world.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Economics & Policy

What does $3 billion buy these days?

by Joe Dyke
written by Joe Dyke

Lebanon’s president could barely contain his joy. Speaking only a few days after Christmas, Michel Sleiman announced a late present to the Lebanese in a year that had brought little to celebrate. Speaking live on the major television networks Sleiman announced that Saudi Arabia had agreed to invest in the Lebanese army to the tune of $3 billion, a grant that he said would enable the military to “strengthen its capabilities” and “confront terrorists.” Coming only two days after the killing of a pro-Saudi former minister, the president’s message seemed fairly pointed.

The grant could undoubtedly have a major effect on the capacity of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). $3 billion, spread over five years, would be a major boost to Lebanon’s defense budget, which the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in 2012 estimated at $1.7 billion annually. If invested wisely, the fighting capacity of the military could greatly improve, as could its ability to control its borders.

 

Editorial: Saudi grant to Lebanon deserves cautious welcome

The investment is certainly needed. Currently, despite having over 60,000 soldiers, the LAF has only a token air force, relies heavily on Russian-made tanks from the 1960s and has a minimal navy. New hardware could enable the LAF to carry out its duties far more efficiently. Elias Ferhat, a former Lebanese general, cites the case of the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian camp in 2007 — when the Lebanese army took three and a half months to crush an insurgency led by Islamist groups. “Had the Lebanese had any fixed wings [planes or drones] it could have ended it in 15 days or fewer,” he said.

Yet those expecting this to be a game-changing moment which will allow the Lebanese army to justify disarming Hezbollah and even provide a military counterweight to Israel may be disappointed. Closer inspection of the deal indicates that while the benefits may be significant for the army’s capacity to control security internally, it is doubtful whether it will have a major effect on relations with Israel or Hezbollah.
Regional deal

Part of the reason the deal’s impact is unclear is that while the proclamations were bold, the details remain murky. As this magazine went to print, there had been no official confirmation of the $3 billion from either the Lebanese government, the Ministry of Defense or the LAF. Beyond the president’s statement, there are as yet no further details of where the money will go. “All we have so far is the declaration from the Saudi government and an acceptance from the Lebanese president,” said Farhat, cautioning that Saudi has a long history of promising money, “but when it comes to execution they do nothing. So it is too early to know how big [the effect will be].”

In fact, closer inspection of the deal suggests that it may have more to do with relations between Saudi Arabia and France than a sudden desire to support Lebanon’s military. At a regional level, as the United States has moved closer to rapprochement with Iran, Saudi Arabia — for many years America’s closest Arab ally — has appeared increasingly snubbed. In November, Riyadh surprised the world by turning down a seat on the United Nations Security Council after months of lobbying for it, a U-turn widely interpreted as a message to the US.

As relations with Washington have soured, leaders in Riyadh have been looking for new allies, with the French appearing to be the favored choice. They may well be voting with their wallets, with the two countries believed to be on the cusp of confirming a $1.4 billion deal to overhaul the Saudi navy — specifically the French-built F-2000 frigates.

The deal struck between Riyadh and Beirut is in fact a triangular one. Lebanon will not be allowed to invest the $3 billion however it sees fit, but will have to buy French goods and get training from France. This, said Aram Nerguizian — a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies and an expert on the LAF — indicates that the deal is as much about Paris as Beirut. “The deal benefits the French [weapons] industry first and foremost. No funding will be transferred directly to Lebanon and the mechanisms by which orders, payments and deliveries will play out are likely to be triangular and complicated by domestic constraints and pressures in all three countries concerned. Minimizing these pressures is incumbent upon effective trilateral engagement, not unlike recent LAF meetings in Paris and Riyadh.”

Indeed Nerguizian believes the Lebanese Armed Forces had only partial awareness of the deal before it was announced. “The LAF was consulted by the Lebanese president on its military development objectives and the Capabilities Development Plan, but they were not aware of any plan by Saudi Arabia to finance the sale of French systems, sustainment and training to the Lebanese,” he said.

What to buy

The debate around what the military should buy, therefore, is somewhat muddied as it is not yet clear by what mechanism the weapons will be selected. Will the LAF be able to prioritize areas where it feels it needs development or will the French dictate what they wish to sell?

Even if the LAF is in control, there are likely to be internal disputes over where the money should be allocated. Nerguizian points out that French naval expertise are among the world’s best and that Lebanon should seek to benefit from this. “This is not only a focus on acquiring ships. It is a bottom up effort to reshape an atrophied force of some 2,400 into a proper navy able to conduct patrol and interdiction in Lebanese territorial and economic waters. This would include dry docks, floating dry dock, ship-to-shore communications and other systems to supplement the sale of ship systems able to operate in difficult weather conditions.” Former general Ferhat, however, thinks the navy is less of a priority. “We need an air force because we don’t have a real one in Lebanon. We need also main battle tanks as our tanks are Syrian Russian-made tanks from the 60s,” he said. “These should be our priorities.”

Another potential tension may be over the percentage of the money spent on new goods. The Oxford Companion to American Military History points out that on average the cost of maintaining hardware over its lifetime is more than the initial cost of buying it.

It is as yet unclear what percentage of the $3 billion will be spent on new items and what will be allocated to maintain them. To give French industry the most short-term benefit, the focus would be on new items, but this could leave the LAF unable to foot the bill. “The maintenance of these weapons will cost hundreds of millions of dollars a year and the Lebanese budget cannot afford this,” Ferhat said. “We have a choice — can we acquire these weapons and maintain them or will they stay in a hangar for 12-15 years and then sold to countries such as Pakistan as they can afford to maintain them?”

Nerguizian believes the Lebanese army will push for finances to be allocated towards long-term acquisition. “The LAF is not looking to acquire $3 billion-worth of systems it cannot sustain… The LAF is operating under the premise that, if the $3 billion does in fact materialize, at least part of it must and will focus on sustainment.”

The need for clarity

One final element stressed by much of the media in understanding this deal is Saudi Arabia’s desire to influence Lebanese politics by weakening Hezbollah, which is the closest regional ally of Riyadh’s rival Iran. But again, the effect may be more modest than some have predicted.

If the purpose of the grant was to develop the LAF so that Hezbollah would no longer need to be armed, then it appears more than $3 billion is needed. Adnan Mansour, the caretaker foreign minister who is close to Hezbollah, dismissed the donation as “not enough to bolster Lebanon’s defense system,” pointing to the $17 billion Israeli annual defense budget. The extent of Hezbollah’s financial support from Iran and other donors is not known, but the Washington Institute for Near East Policy estimated it could be up to $200 million a year. Similarly the party has a huge network of voluntary donors, who pledge support to the party. While their total budget is significantly less than the LAF’s budget, Hezbollah has fewer responsibilities — with ‘resistance’ to Israel still its top priority. In this the party’s expert use of guerilla warfare has made it more capable of challenging Israeli aggression than traditional Middle Eastern militaries. “The Army is currently not able to be strong without [Hezbollah] at its side,” Mansour added.

Nerguizian agrees that the triangular nature of the deal makes it unlikely to be a direct challenge to Hezbollah. “$3 billion to France which will then sell as yet uncertain aid to the LAF will not lead to an LAF-Hezbollah confrontation, nor will it lead to the kinds of government formation that will seek to exclude the Shi’a and Hezbollah.”

What remains are more questions than answers. While the money from Saudi could have a transformative effect on the capacity of Lebanon’s armed forces, whether it actually will or not is unclear. The sooner more details are released, the better.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Economics & Policy

Can Bassil go it alone?

by Jeremy Arbid
written by Jeremy Arbid

On January 8, caretaker Minister of Energy and Water Gebran Bassil again delayed the first licensing round for offshore oil and gas exploration ­— perhaps the biggest hope for Lebanon’s static economy. The reason was the same as the two previous times it had been delayed since September — two decrees need to be signed to allow the round to move forward. Political infighting has prevented the cabinet meeting to do so, thus Bassil has been forced to keep pushing back the bid.

But while this was old ground, this time there was a twist. Setting a new date of April 10, Bassil was adamant that “the [new] deadline is a final one.” He did not specify exactly what he meant by this, but this ambiguity has led some to interpret that if a cabinet has not been formed by April the minister will attempt to push through a move without the necessary decrees.

How far he could get without full cabinet approval is unclear. He certainly could not finalize any deal, as Lebanon’s 2010 Offshore Petroleum Law explicitly declares that any final agreement must be passed by decree. This procedure is supported by Article 89 in the Lebanese constitution which states: “No contract or concession for the exploitation of the natural resources of the country… may be granted except by virtue of a law and for a limited period.” Carole Nakhle, an energy economist at the Surrey Energy Economics Centre, explained, “the Offshore Petroleum [Resources] Law plainly states that the decrees should be approved by the Council of Ministers.”

What Bassil could do, however, is start to negotiate with companies on the basis of the model Exploration and Production Agreement (EPA). One of the two pending decrees declares the terms for the final EPA — the agreement between oil and gas companies and the government. But while the terms are not finalized, Bassil can begin negotiations working on the assumption that the model will form the basis for the final EPA.

An industry source, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said, “You can actually move along, and indeed it is common in resource-rich countries for terms to be agreed before formal regulations are passed approving these terms.” But, he stressed, companies will be reticent unless they are given assurances “that these are the final terms and that there won’t be a complete redraft.”

Dangerous precedent

Experts warn that moving forward without the decrees and the cabinet’s blessing is a precarious move. Oil companies are aware of the risk of investing in Lebanon’s offshore gas. However, as Mona Sukkarieh — co-founder of Middle East Strategic Perspectives, a Beirut-based political risk consultancy specializing in oil and gas — explained, “companies don’t like to operate on shaky legal grounds if their rights and licenses run the risk of being questioned at a later stage.”

These repeated delays continue to frustrate participating companies, particularly the largest companies in the bid, many of whom had only a skeleton presence at the Lebanon International Oil and Gas Summit in December.

However, these companies have experience operating in unstable political environments and have calculated Lebanon’s country risk into their strategic plans. A company’s decision to participate in a licensing round “is a strategic decision that is not reconsidered if a tender is temporarily delayed. Of course, this does not mean that the Lebanese government should keep testing their patience,” Sukkarieh explained.

The need for speed

In many ways Bassil is correct in demanding a final deadline — time is a factor for at least two reasons. In the face of political negotiations, the projected year in which Lebanon is supposed to become a gas producer, 2020, will surely be pushed back. By the next decade new sources of gas will be available in the global market. Israel has already started gas production and rumors of a proposed pipeline to Jordan are circulating. Globally, the United States, Australia, India, Canada and Indonesia are set for big increases in gas production, while regionally both Iran and Qatar are due to expand their output rapidly.

AT Kearney, a global management consulting firm, is forecasting that over the next decade, the surplus of supply will cause gas prices to fall. One of their primary indicators is gas import infrastructure, which is undergoing rapid expansion for both pipeline and liquefied natural gas, with much of this growth occurring in the Middle East. The World Bank expects prices in Europe and Asia to fall by around 10 percent in the next decade while the International Energy Agency anticipates a 30 percent decline in prices by 2020.

All this means that by the time Lebanon starts extracting, gas reserves lying offshore may not be as valuable as they are currently estimated. Thus the sooner Lebanon moves forward, the better.

The old enemy

The second reason that time is key involves the maritime border dispute with Israel over 873,000 square kilometers believed to be rich in resources.

The United States has been an active partner in resolving the border dispute, with multiple visits by high-ranking American officials. US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Diplomacy Amos Hochstein visited Lebanon in November 2013 to push for a deal, meeting with several leading political officials including caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri and Bassil.

By some accounts Hochstein proposed a compromise for the dispute during his visit. According to a recently published news release by Alem & Associates, a legal firm representing oil companies bidding in the licensing round, the proposal “consists of setting a maritime blue line area between both countries in which the disputed zones will remain unexploited.” In general, the proposal prescribes freezing any exploration and exploitation activity in the disputed area until a permanent solution can be found.

But Lebanon’s political infighting may be strengthening the Israeli government’s position. Reports from Israel have indicated that Tel Aviv has rejected the compromise put forward by the Americans, perhaps a sign that Israeli leaders are feeling increasingly confident in the face of the Lebanese government’s inaction. Similarly the Israelis have a new gas exploratory site, the Karish well, with reserves estimated at up to 2 trillion cubic feet, approximately 20 kilometers south of Lebanon’s border claims.

It’s another promising find for the Israelis, who grow more concerned about their ability to protect offshore gas installations. In fact, the Israel Defense Force (IDF) is requesting nearly a billion dollars to fund operational costs for large patrol vessels, extended surveillance and intelligence capabilities, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This allocation would be in addition to the recent acquisition of two state of the art German frigates that are bound for patrol of their Exclusive Economic Zone waters.

Each passing day provides less incentive for mediators such as Hochstein to help Lebanon retain its territorial waters — enabling Israel to move closer toward claiming parts of the disputed zone. As Malek Takieddine, an oil and gas lawyer representing companies preparing to bid in Lebanon’s first licensing round, explained, “You might see Israel granting licenses or permitting certain operations near or inside the territories claimed by Lebanon. If this occurs, it might be also coupled by military protection.”

Moving Forward

Those wishing to move Lebanon’s oil and gas sector forward are faced with two unenviable options — back the caretaker energy minister to move ahead without the support of the government, or wait for the formation of a new government. On the latter, there have been a few positive signs in recent weeks that suggest the wait may be coming to an end.

Despite the continued delays and political bickering surrounding the petroleum file, technical work at the Ministry of Energy and Water and the Petroleum Administration (PA) continues. The PA — the six-member body charged with running Lebanon’s oil and gas sector — has recently drafted both an Onshore Petroleum Law and a Petroleum Tax Law, posted advertisements for employment opportunities, begun soliciting tenders for the next government-backed oil and gas conference, and has been coordinating a series of roundtable discussions and dialogues with local policy experts. According to Nakhle the PA has performed its duties with a level of professionalism not typical to Lebanese bureaucracy. “Various departments in other relevant ministries, like finance, environment and economy, should also be working at the same speed and getting themselves ready,” she added. Perhaps this new efficiency could start with the formation of a new government. Then the country could move forward in the right way.

1 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Finance

The right kind of business

by Thomas Schellen
written by Thomas Schellen

Two niche markets are driving the business and growth of Jammal Trust Bank (JTB) at the start of 2014. One is in the bank’s home base in Lebanon and the other in West Africa. This diversification is not bad for a medium-sized lender that feels very comfortable being a mid-sized operator with just under $1 billion in assets — but what is surprising is that these two niches are at first sight entirely unconnected and even appear to represent opposite poles of core banking competencies.

In Africa, JTB’s market comprises primarily the expatriate Lebanese business community “in every country that borders the Atlantic starting from Angola and all the way up to Dakar [Senegal]. We are present in these countries in the sense that we have clients there who are basically larger-end clients,” says Anwar Jammal, JTB’s chairman and general manager.
In Lebanon, his clientele is far from big-ticket accounts and corporate transactions. Here, Jammal describes himself as banker of the small and medium enterprise (SME) clientele and JTB as a specialist bank in the much-neglected business of micro-lending, which not only in Lebanon is of no particular interest to the biggest banks. “We cater to SMEs and micro-businesses and in fact were the first bank to initiate micro-lending in Lebanon back in 1999,” he says, differentiating microcredit from small consumer loans by its purpose.

best of both worlds
The common denominator behind the opposing specializations is market knowledge. With most members of his generation in the Jammal family born as Lebanese expatriates in Africa, he claims to have an edge over other Beirut-based banks that approach the market as outsiders.

In the domestic market, JTB nurtured its role to be the “people’s bank” and has developed its expertise in the behavior of small customers ever since conducting a study finding that 50 to 60 percent of the bankable Lebanese population did not bank with anyone. From this study, which according to Jammal was done more than 10 years prior, JTB concluded that it would not try to chase a very small slice of the Lebanese market for large corporate accounts but rather focus on cultivating a clientele among the unbanked population and specifically target those 30 to 35 percent of bankable Lebanese citizens who thought that no bank would be interested to take them on as clients.

The strategy of the two niches has rewarded JTB nicely, with appreciable growth in the past few years. Partial banking sector figures for 2013 up to the month of November have shown JTB with growth across key indicators: seen year-on-year, assets expanded 27.4 percent, deposits grew 20.5 percent and lending increased by just under 27 percent. Net profits shot up tremendously, by 182 percent, but this has to be attributed to a large drop in exceptional expenses from the same period in the previous year, Jammal tells Executive.

While full-year results for the Lebanese banking sector in 2013 were not yet available at the time of the interview with JTB, last year’s partial sector results retrospectively provide a nice frame for the bank’s 50th anniversary near the end of last year. In a wider look over JTB’s financial evolution over the period since Anwar Jammal assumed the bank’s chairmanship in May 2005, growth rates showed broad strength. “Our average yearly growth of loans from 2005 till last year is 19.4 percent, average growth of total assets is just under 11 percent and the average growth of deposits is about 13.4 percent,” he says, adding that this pace of development allowed JTB to move its ranking by size of assets up by about 10 positions since 2005, to 23rd or 24th place in the sector.

Notwithstanding the growth rates that JTB recorded since he assumed the chairmanship in family succession, Jammal insists that he made no fundamental changes. “I can’t say that I have done anything innovative. We basically streamlined ourselves and focused ourselves on our core banking business. We tried not to be anything other than what we are: a medium-sized bank and we cater to the SMEs of Lebanon.”

He appears, however, to be prone to understatement in a very British way. Moreover, besides its dual market focus there is a second combination of seeming contradictions in JTB’s corporate DNA that is linked to his chairmanship. Jammal is not only the bank’s chairman and general manager; he also is its controlling shareholder since 2005. But while this combination is as close to operational omnipotence as it can get for a banker, the heir of JTB explains that he instead created a new governance structure with a board whose members, apart from him, hold no executive positions in the bank.

“I gave full power to the board, believe it or not. When I took over the bank, the powers that the chairman general manager actually had were frightening. I said to myself we either come out of this particular cycle to have a professional institution or maintain a small family-run business mindset. The first decision was that we want to go into being a professional institution, so I rescinded most of the authorities that I had and gave to the board,” Jammal explains.

Looking forward to the coming years, he foresees no diminishing of demand for credit in Africa and expects that the bank’s lending growth abroad will be curtailed by central bank-set limits for lending in countries with lower sovereign ratings long before any slackening of demand from borrowers.

Demand from SME borrowers and micro-credit applicants in Lebanon is also not going to wane in Jammal’s expectation and he assesses this market segment as less likely than others to be impacted by the continuing economic challenges related to the Syrian crisis.
SME lending constitutes the bank’s most important domestic credit activity, with a total amount of LL74 billion ($49 million) in lending to SMEs in 2012, followed by housing loans at LL69 billion ($46 million) and corporate loans at LL67 billion ($45 million) and SME loans were also the fastest growing loan segment between 2011 and 2012, displaying a year-on-year growth of over 60 percent from LL46 billion ($30.5 million) in 2011.

just the right size
While Jammal says that micro-lending is actually less risky than consumer lending in terms of default, he concedes that dealing with this clientele, many of whom have never banked before, makes the credit business much more labor intensive, which is reflected in higher interest rates. While reluctant to divulge the premium in interest rates that his bank charges over common market rates in Lebanon, the JTB chairman is adamant to compare the bank’s loan offers to those of non-banking money lenders. He emphasizes that prior to JTB’s focusing on micro-lending, small borrowers had no alternative to dealing with loan sharks and their extortive interest charges.

For developing the micro-credit and SME credit business of JTB, Jammal says the bank has a strategy to lower costs by automating and streamlining delivery and at the same time attracting more borrowers. He adds that this two-pronged approach is supported by risk assessment processes that the bank has developed on the basis of its experience with borrowers and which enable the bank to calculate credit scores in the profiling of loan applicants.

While he is decidedly working for growing the business of JTB — and in the long term aims to dilute the family aspect in the bank’s shareholder base by bringing in new shareholders — Anwar Jammal is one Lebanese banker who wants to profitably remain situated in the upper tiers of the beta banks (with deposits between $500 million and $2 billion). To him, going alpha would mean losing the bank’s competitive edge. “For as long as I am chairman, I certainly don’t want JTB to be one of the top 10 banks in Lebanon,” he says.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Finance

Jad Hatem – Q&A

by Executive Staff
written by Executive Staff

Jad Hatem is a partner at B.E.C.A. Hatem & Partners, one of Lebanon’s leading accounting firms. The company has around 500 clients, many of whom are due to file taxes online for the first time ever in 2014, after the Lebanese government introduced the system at the end of 2013. In coordination with the Ministry of Finance, B.E.C.A. have been helping prepare their clients through specific training programs.

E   What companies have to pay their taxes online this year?
For the year 2014, all the large companies will submit online but the smaller companies still do hard copies. In the coming years all companies will be obliged to pay online. For now the larger companies are paying VAT, completed on a quarterly basis, annual tax income and real estate taxes online.

E   How significant a difference can online taxes make for both the government and the companies?
I would say it is going to be a win-win situation. For the taxpayer it will be much easier to submit it on the web directly rather than a hard copy to be completed, signed and submitted to LibanPost — with the fees attached. For the Ministry of Finance it will be much easier. In the past they used to get hard copies from the LibanPost, scan it, enter the data into the system — now that won’t be necessary. So on both sides it will be beneficial.
Nevertheless, I am sure the first two years there will be complications — it is new, people don’t know how to do it, and there might be bugs in the system. Many accountants from an older generation are not familiar with IT and the internet. So it might be tough for them in the beginning but later on it will be much easier.

E   The government is aiming to get all companies to pay taxes online by 2015. Is that realistic?
It will be feasible as long as the large taxpayers’ scheme is successful this year. There is no reason why it can’t happen.

E   How well is the e-taxation system that was launched at the end of last year working?
We cannot judge yet, we don’t have feedback as the first quarter that has been submitted is this quarter. So the first test is now — the deadline was postponed till the end of January. It is too early to know. But what we can say so far is that people, companies and accountants are not well informed about how to proceed with this file.

E   So the potential problems are more to do with knowledge than the functioning of the system?
We don’t know yet how efficient the system will be but what we know at this stage is people are not aware how to do it. So we need to have workshops so taxpayers know how to succeed.

E   How have you been training your clients to avoid problems?
We carried out a three-hour briefing for over 100 of our clients to give them the knowledge to register online, get an access number, and complete the forms.
We had 140 attendees, all of them from our clients — the chief accountants.

E   Is three hours training enough to learn how to submit your tax forms online?
Yes, after three hours they should be able to register, to get online, to get the login and have 80 to 90 percent of the knowledge required to file their tax returns.

E   Are some businesses that you work with hesitant to go online?
There is hostility, mainly from the older generation, which has been doing it for decades. For them they don’t want to change but on the other hand it is not an option — this is how things are moving. Now those in big companies cannot do it offline any more, it is compulsory.

E   How many years behind is Lebanon in going online?
IT-wise and in terms of internet penetration, compared to Europe we are far behind. Lebanese are not very familiar — if you look at the statistics most of them are into social media but that is it, in terms of using the internet for e-payment, etc. Lebanese are still not used to paying for things online. But compared to other Arabic countries, excluding the UAE, we are not far behind.

E   Does auditing online make the system more transparent, thus potentially reducing corruption?
The information will be available much quicker, so as soon as you submit, the information will be available. In the past it was completed manually, then sent to the Ministry of Finance to be processed. All of this process took months but not any more. But the impact on transparency will be indirect.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Leaders

Time for a government

by Executive Editors
written by Executive Editors

For the past 10 months, Lebanon has been without a government. The caretaker cabinet has proved completely incapable of responding to the country’s two major ongoing challenges — the influx of 900,000 Syrian refugees fleeing their country’s civil war and a striking downturn in security conditions. Since Christmas alone, Lebanon has seen four car bombs. The political void has also fed into wider inactivity; parliamentary elections have been missed, natural gas tenders repeatedly postponed.
The coming months will see challenges just as daunting. President Michel Sleiman is due to step down in May, while parliamentary elections are scheduled for November. Tenders for natural gas must move forward lest Lebanon risk losing the interest of international oil companies and any hope for energy independence or a balanced budget. Syrian refugees will continue to arrive in Lebanon, putting further strains on state infrastructure. And the rapidly deteriorating security situation demands a strong response by the army and Internal Security Forces, backed up by political consensus.

It is good that leaders seem close to announcing a new government with broad participation. Sleiman and prime minister-designate Tammam Salam have been doggedly pushing for a cabinet. The Future Movement and Hezbollah, protagonists in Lebanon’s most fraught political dispute, have signaled their willingness to share power. As Executive went to press, it appeared that only one card had yet to fall into place: Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM).

The party’s major demand is to keep its current portfolios of telecoms and energy. There is some merit in keeping ministries under the same management: often new ministers bring coteries of advisors and erase the painstaking work of their predecessors.
Similarly both Nicholas Sehnaoui and Gebran Bassil, respectively the caretaker ministers of telecoms and of energy and water, have been effective in their roles. The two are among the only ministers that can point to real accomplishments under the last government, the former improving the country’s (still slow) internet networks and the latter pushing forward the oil and gas bids.

But these are hardly good enough reasons to sign over entire ministries to specific political parties in perpetuity. Lebanon has a long history of building political fiefdoms, rather than functioning ministries. Indeed, Bassil’s comments in late January that it was important to keep the energy ministry under the control of Christians smacks of just the kind of self-serving feudalism that has long held the country back.

This thinking must not be tolerated. Sleiman and Salam should not let the FPM get in the way of the formation of new government. Hezbollah and Amal, the FPM’s major coalition partners, shouldn’t either. With weekly car bombs at home and a devastating war still raging next door, the stakes are simply too high.

There are more pressing issues  in Lebanon than telecoms or even energy. It is time for the FPM to apply its competence in these areas as well.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Finance

Investment banking: Small sector in search of big deals

by Livia Murray
written by Livia Murray

The investment banking sector in Lebanon is staggeringly small. With Lebanon’s history of maintaining a strong financial sector despite periods of crisis, one would expect its finance professionals to be well-versed in the notoriously lucrative industry, which registered revenues of $76 billion globally in 2013. But as the Lebanese market shows, not all financial systems are endowed with the same opportunities. Revenues from investment banking in Lebanon are so marginal that an operation could not even sustain itself if it were to rely solely on investment banking income.

Identity crisis
To compensate for low revenues, institutions that do investment banking are forced to diversify their products. What are referred to as investment banks in Lebanon commonly delve into brokerage, wealth management, long and medium term deposits and lending, alongside their advisory and capital raising services. Though it borders on an identity crisis, this combination of services is feasible and even encouraged by the specialized banking license under which these banks operate.

“This is the model that works,” says Samir Taleb, founder and partner of financial institution Lucid Investment. “It’s the central bank license which allows both together and actually encourages both together.” This specialized bank license issued by Banque du Liban (BDL) gives a wide mandate to the banks for services in corporate finance and private banking.  A total of 17 banks are registered under this license.

Investment banking is still relatively new to Lebanon. As the newest pillar of FFA Private bank, it accounted for only 10 percent of their total revenues in 2013 according to its senior manager and head of investment banking Julien Khabbaz. Their investment banking division carries out corporate finance advisory to regional companies who want to sell, restructure, or carry out a merger or an acquisition, and provides fundraising on a project-by-project basis. With the bulk of their revenues stemming from brokerage and asset management, the money they raise mostly comes from a pool of investors who are clients of the private bank. FFA acquired the specialized banking license in 2007 and has a shareholder equity of $30 million.
Cedrus Invest Bank’s founder and CEO Raed Khoury estimates that a similar 10 percent of the bank’s total revenues stem from investment banking. Out of a total net income of $3 million for 2013, investment banking profits would stand at $300,000, with the lion’s share of the bank’s revenues coming from private banking and wealth management. Established in 2011, the bank has a total paid-up capital of $52 million.

The weak appetite for investment banking in Lebanon has caused investment bank subsidiaries of larger groups to derive a bulk of their investment banking activities from divisions of their parent companies. According to Credit Libanais Investment Bank’s head of corporate finance and economic research Fadlo Choueiri, a great part of the bank’s investment banking activities come from advisory work for the Credit Libanais Group, particularly as it added a number of branches in the Middle East and West Africa.
Blominvest Bank uses a similar model. With parent Blom Bank having branches across Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, whenever one of these branches identifies a company that needs investment banking services, they outsouce these services them to Blominvest where the manpower is. “Our role will be really to provide services for our subsidiaries outside of Lebanon because this is where the deals are,” Fadi Osseiran, general manager at Blominvest, says.

slim pickings
Investment bankers in Lebanon are forced to diversify their services or outsource because of the barren landscape for such activities in Lebanon. “You might wait two years and have no transactions,” says Lucid’s Taleb. The lack of companies willing to seek investment banking services explains the meager profits of investment banking, and the need for a backup plan. “Because when it dries up, it dries up,” says Khaled Zeidan, who works on the buy-side of deals as general manager of MedSecurities.

Those in the financial sector blame the family ownership structure of Lebanese companies as hampering investment banking activities. “They want to preserve their control and going public or opening up their capital is a much lengthier and difficult process,” says Osseiran. Business owners in Lebanon will opt for taking bank loans when they need capital over selling shares, which would dilute ownership.

Though scepticism is not undue for a sector that does not have the cleanest reputation, those in the industry point to the merits of financial services and advising for a company. “You have shareholders and partners to report to,” says Taleb. In juxtaposition with the family business structure which has a reputation for being shadowy and inefficient in their finances, opening up capital can lead to fiscal transparency and institutionalized management. “Investment funds will be fighting to get a meeting with you as a company to support you, possibly partnering with you, financing the company to expedite growth,” says George Azar, managing director at financial advisory firm GA consult.

Sourcing deals
If Lebanese investment bankers are having trouble sourcing their deals locally, the appetite for Lebanese investment banking services is only slightly better in the region. But sourcing deals from the outside is more difficult than keeping active on the local market because of competition from large regional and international banks. Those who have managed have had to find space in the market. “I believe we sit in a nice niche,” says FFA’s Khabbaz. “We’re kind of in the niche of deal size where you don’t have many investment banks working on that same field,” going for deals in the $5-$50 million range.

Nonetheless, Lebanese investment bankers are forced to look abroad. “In order to be financially solid, if you want to work only in investment banking, [you need] to have deals in the region,” says Khoury. Many of the mandates currently under control of Lebanese investment banks are from Lebanese companies abroad, as regional expansion is the preferred method of scaling for these companies. In 2013, Cedrus worked on acquisitions in the UAE’s insurance sector, Saudi Arabia’s healthcare sector, and Lebanon’s food and beverage sector, with tickets ranging from $5 million to $10 million per deal, as well as smaller advisory deals within Lebanon. They could not disclose the names of the companies because of non-disclosure agreements.

Lebanese investment banks can look at bigger deals by getting work from their parent bank’s regional subsidiaries. Blominvest is currently working on two advisory mandates for a Saudi plastics company at a size of $70-80 million and a Qatari construction company at a size of $300 million, thanks to Blom Bank’s branches in those countries. They raised $100 million in 2013 for investments abroad, $50-60 million of which went to Saudi Arabia, mostly in real estate.

The future
In spite of the current limitations, investment bankers are hopeful that the next couple of decades will see an increase in investment banking activities in Lebanon. “We’re going to see exits in the next few years, people that inherited that business and they don’t want it, or people who inherited and want to grow it or need new partners or cash injection or people that need restructuring or advisory on corporate governance,” says Khabbaz. New management opting to open their capital would give investment bankers the opportunity to structure and plan these exits.

Capitalization would also allow investment bankers to sink their teeth into larger deals. “As the Lebanese companies want to grow and become competitive in the region, they need to re-capitalize. So they might ask for investment banks to advise them how to increase their capital, and find them companies for acquisitions, etc,” says Khoury. “There are a lot of things that need to happen as naturally family businesses grow and become a size where they can be more institutionalized and have a future. Maybe someday we can see some of these companies be publicly listed,” says Khabbaz.

Besides the capitalization of family businesses, some of the major sectors of the economy are still public. Privatization of major sectors of the economy such as telecoms and a major airline would drive demand for investment banking services. “You couldn’t really kick off investment banking in a place where there the sectors of importance are not privatized,” says Osseiran. Investment bankers also see potential in sectors of the economy on the verge of being developed, such as oil and gas.

Capital markets:
no exit in sight
Though investment bankers see prospects in the future for investment banking deals, one of the lingering problems they will face are the underdeveloped capital markets. Very few companies are listed on the Beirut Stock Exchange. With real estate giant Solidere and a handful of banks taking up the majority of the market, it has not seen any new equity listings since the turn of the century.

Weak capital markets provide little exit strategy — dubbed by Zeidan as the “holy grail” of the industry — for investors to sell their shares in a company and capitalize on their gains. But the current political situation has lead to an undervaluation in the price of shares that dissuades investors from buying and companies from selling. “Investors are not willing to pay a premium over and above the book value of the share,” said Choueiri, who claimed that the price of listed shares fell from roughly three times the book value in 2008 to barely over parity today.

Political deadlock limits both investments in companies and the desire for companies to list, take capital injections, and expand, as today’s climate is far from ideal for initial public offerings (IPOs). Khabbaz admitted that some of their mandates for mergers and acquisitions ground to a halt in    2013 because of insecurities relating to the political situation. “They kind of stalled and froze just because people were reluctant to do deals, to execute, to invest, to buy each other out,”he says.

But political deadlock is not the only culprit for lack of deals and IPOs. A regulatory framework has been slow in implementation, despite the establishment of capital markets as early as the 1920s.

These regulations would establish minimum requirements for companies to list and be traded on the stock market that would increase the transparency and accountability to their shareholders.

With the relatively recent formation of the Capital Markets Authority, a regulatory body to oversee Lebanon’s capital markets in 2011, investment bankers are still dubious this will lead to real change any time soon. “We’ve been waiting 10-15 years on the making of it,”   says Osseiran. A high priority in every country that wants to develop serious capital markets, a regulatory agency is a must for a highly functioning and reliable trading environment. Though Lebanese investment bankers may see more deals in the next couple of years, it is important that this is paired with a regulatory framework to limit the potential risks in this industry.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Leaders

A frontal assault?

by Executive Editors
written by Executive Editors

Saudi Arabia’s pledge to support the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to the tune of $3 billion over the next five years should be cautiously welcomed.

The army is one of the few genuinely cross-sectarian bodies in this divided country and enjoys widespread support. In 2013 a study by the Norwegian research company FAFO found that the LAF was by far the most trusted institution in the country, with over 80 percent support compared with averages of around 50 percent for the parliament and the government. Most significantly, the backing was roughly consistent across all age groups and sects (it was lower among Sunnis, but still the most trusted body).

Despite its reputation, the LAF suffers from chronic underfunding (see main article). Tasked in its mandate with juggling the daunting duties of defending the country against foreign aggressors, reclaiming Lebanese land under Israeli occupation and maintaining internal security; it is clearly incapable of keeping all the balls in the air.

This is partly about technology; while the LAF has plenty of manpower much of its hardware, such as dozens of Soviet-made tanks, are relics from previous eras. The need for investment is clear.

Thus the $3 billion could be a major moment for the country, allowing the military to significantly improve its capabilities. It will not become a regional superpower and will remain incapable of providing a realistic military threat to Israel, but it could get a much firmer grip over internal security and stop the country sliding into further strife. This best-case scenario would be welcome.

But then we return to politics. No one with knowledge of the Middle East will accept that Saudi’s motives are purely philanthropic. Indeed, the deal appears to have as much to do with boosting Riyadh’s relations with France as with concerns about Lebanon’s security.
Those that have cried foul have accused Saudi Arabia of seeking to politicize the army, or to use the funding to create a counterweight to Hezbollah. Indeed, the Hezbollah-leaning Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar alleged that the deal was contingent on the Shi’ite group being excluded from the next government.

If the Saudis want to be seen as honest brokers — supporting the most beloved of Lebanese institutions out of concern for the country’s stability, rather than sectarian preference — then assurances are needed. Foremost among these would be a guarantee that the leaders of the LAF alone will choose what areas they wish to strengthen and what they wish to buy. Any Saudi interference, whether direct or indirect, will only pour fuel on political fires.

So far transparency has been severely lacking — as yet there are few indications of where the money might end up. To avoid perceptions of favoritism, more clarity is needed from both the Saudis and the LAF.

The widespread support for the military is to be cherished. While the need for new funding is great, it cannot be traded in exchange for independence.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Leaders

Corporate responsibility is everyone’s duty

by Executive Editors
written by Executive Editors

It is not easy these days to find companies that are expanding in Lebanon. Uncertainty rules the economic climate and the only thing safely said about this year’s business prospects is that there are so many variables that macroeconomic forecasts are even shakier than in ‘normal’ times. But there are corporate examples for optimism — even if some can be described as hoping against probability. There also are companies that tell Executive of investments and expansions that will mean the creation of new jobs in areas such as hospitality and trade.

One company to talk new business last month was Beirut Waterfront Development, which is set to open the Beirut Yacht Club this spring (see story). Another was Spinneys, the retail chain that has more stores and new concepts in the pipeline for Lebanon (see story and interview). The two represent very different corporate narratives. With the Yacht Club, Waterfront Development is invested in a segment of the real estate and hospitality market where exclusivity is the aim and targeted profit margins in the sale of a few super-pricy apartments are a function of scarcity. Spinneys is a mass retailer of fast-moving consumer goods whose daily bread is beating the competition on price and whose mantra is winning on razor-thin margins.

But besides professing corporate optimism, both have another factor in common: they have been targets of huge criticism. Waterfront Development was accused by one media outlet of building a “boardwalk of corruption” in the St. Georges Bay — arguing that the company was part of a scheme to abuse public property for private gain. In 2012 activists attacked the Spinneys chief executive as ‘CEO against freedoms’, with allegations over their working conditions.

Media and activists are important parts of society and as Lebanon matures toward a more open and inclusive society their contributions are important. Similarly, criticism and exposure of corporate ills are an essential feature of their watchdog functions. And when it comes to Lebanon’s huge need for more social equity, the protection of the country from disgraceful private use of public property and the preservation of labor rights are absolute priorities.
However, the virtues of standing up for the little guy and for the public good must preserve the dignity of these causes. The responsibility to present facts and argue with fairness is incumbent not only on news media but also on activists. Even the simplest examination of the accusations against Spinneys and Waterfront Development showed that the companies were often not given a fair hearing.  Most significantly, the attacks against both companies were pushed forward not only by media and activists but also by leading Lebanese politicians, while a politician was also the main target in the attack on Waterfront Development.

The entanglement of political figures points to a major dilemma as the Lebanese wait for a new government to help find a solution to our macroeconomic trough. The dilemma is that the Lebanese need their politicians to be active but that the political class is perceived, often with good reason, as producing more problems than solutions.

Politicians should speak out against abuse of public properties and scrutinize economic actors for treating their employees fairly. But if politicians single out one and keep silent about all the others, they raise suspicion that their motives are not pure. And by damaging companies that otherwise would grow, it loads another straw onto the back of this heavily burdened camel that is the Lebanese economy.

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail