Business

Think like a startup

by Joe Ayoub
written by Joe Ayoub

There was a time when the bigger and more established a company was, the more assured it felt in terms of staying power in the market. These days what matters more to a company’s relevance and future is to what extent they embrace innovation. What this means for businesses is that, no matter how big they are, if they want to survive they need to think like a startup.

A startup by nature is constantly on its toes, harboring a hunger to wake up each day and perform better than the day before. There’s a flexibility to their way of thinking that means every aspect of the organization’s strategy is open to question and can be easily superseded if a better idea is brought to the table.  

Established businesses may still ask themselves why they would need to change things, but the answer is very clear: today’s business landscape is a far cry from that of 50 years ago. Back then, the average age of a company on the Fortune 500 was somewhere around 75 years; today the lifespan is closer to a mere decade before a company goes out of business or gets bought out. What has changed is the pace of consumerism: we are living in an age where consumers are always hungry for more — everything from content to apps to games — and are looking to consume them simultaneously. Technology, the driver of this rampant consumerism, has also brought with it the ability for any innovation, whether patented or not, to be replicated within a short space of time, even months. Ultimately this is what is pushing companies to be innovators — they cannot stop in a world that does not stand still.

But there’s an additional impetus that businesses should be feeling in this call to think like a startup. In the wake of the financial crisis, the world entered an era of zero growth. Companies have to face the reality of this era, of pressures on margins, and of pressure from consumers demanding constant new ideas in the market. Their only way to survive is to stay relevant, and innovation is the engine that will not only do that but keep them ahead of the curve and in front of their competition.

Step back to leap ahead
Once the need to think like a startup has been acknowledged, a business also needs to know how to implement it. This is not about appointing one person in charge of innovation, but rather instilling a holistic culture throughout the organization. This requires commitment from top management who should be heavily engaged and act to unite all employees in this push for creativity. To get there, businesses need to take a comprehensive look at the business, the brand value proposition and the employees — and formulate a clear vision and central strategy. Questions that need to be answered include which products/services to retain and which to divest, and which processes to review to meet objectives quickly.

We are all aware that Lebanon is going through yet another crisis period. But at times like this the situation can be viewed as either a problem or an opportunity. At Brandcell we are advising our clients to look at it as an opportunity to take a small step back and redefine their business for growth. It’s not enough to think that as sales are down the solution is promotions and discounts; these will only send one signal to consumers — that you are in panic mode. Instead, now is the time to benefit from the lull to rethink every element of your business proposition and to discover how many new ideas you can create, and how many new resources you can make available to jumpstart your business when this crisis is over. Having the ability to continuously unlearn and learn again is the thus trademark of successful companies.
 

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Business

In values we trust

by Thomas Schellen
written by Thomas Schellen

Even though it was founded 90 years ago in Egypt, is owned by a United Arab Emirates-based investment fund, and is being run by a Brit, much if not most of the DNA in regional retailer Spinneys is entwined with Lebanon. The chain was reborn in Beirut in 1998; of its four countries with direct operations, Lebanon leads in number of stores and sales revenue; it suffered some of its most unwelcome challenges in the local scene; and notably, it puts all its new ideas in front of the Lebanese consumer first, before taking them to the Egyptian, Jordanian and Qatari markets.

According to CEO Michael Wright, Spinneys is a niche player in Qatar and Jordan, while Lebanon and Egypt are the current centers for revenues and profits. The brand’s largest presence is in the UAE, where almost 50 supermarkets and convenience stores carry the Spinneys logo and identity, far more than in the four other countries together. However, the group has no direct stake in the UAE market since the operation there is owned by Emirati businessman Ali Albwardy and run independently from the group under a basic franchise agreement.

Group-wide sales revenues, which do not include the UAE, were in the vicinity of $500 million in the group’s 2012/13 financial year, which ended last June, Wright told Executive in a far-ranging interview. He said Lebanon accounted for 45 to 50 percent of that, which suggests a turnover of somewhere between $200 and $275 million for the operation here, depending on whether the corner values cited by Wright were on the high or low side.
He competes in Lebanon against several domestically owned supermarket chains along with the Kuwaiti-owned Sultan Group and Carrefour, the French chain whose regional partner is the Majid Al Futtaim Group. For market share, Lebanon is Spinney’s main focus but these growth potentials are curtailed by the overall structure of the retail trade.

Evolution of ownership
In the first years after players like Spinneys rolled out super- and hypermarkets, there were strong expectations that these big stores would wipe out local stores but this has not happened in Lebanon. Large retailers with centralized buying and modern management control only around 30 percent of the Lebanese market and this number has been rather stable, Wright said. The retailer plans to increase the total number of stores from the current eight to 13 and also venture into the convenience store business in a repeat attempt at the local diversification plans that Wright first disclosed to Executive almost ten years ago.
Part of the retail brand’s story is a complicated ownership evolution whose recent chapters center on one of the region’s leading private equity players, Arif Naqvi, who is best known today as chairman of Abraaj Group. His older company, Cupola Investment acquired Spinneys in 1999 along with other assets for $116 million, in Naqvi’s first major deal from the United Kingdom-based automotive distributor and retailer Inchcape. It spun off the minority interest it held in the UAE operation of Spinneys — presumably the group’s filet piece in operational terms at the time — by selling it to the local majority partner Albwardy Group and embarked on expanding the brand’s presence in Lebanon and from there into Egypt, Qatar and Jordan.

Describing the company as a regional pace setter and innovator in major retail, Wright — who has been with the company for 26 years, beginning in Dubai after a training scheme with a British retailer —said that competitors copied the retail environment and work and training structures of Spinneys since the current operational mold was implemented in Lebanon in 1998. Retail managers with experience at Spinneys are sought after in the market and can often achieve a career leap when hiring on with other retail chains.

In 2004, Spinneys was acquired by the first Abraaj Buyout Fund (ABOF) based on diligence from which Naqvi excused himself to avert conflict of interest issues, according to Wright who was for two years a direct employee of Abraaj. According to a Middle East Economic Digest research document reproduced on the Abraaj website, Cupola retained 35 percent ownership of Spinneys Group while 46 percent was taken on by ABOF for a cash consideration of $27.1 million. Ten years on, the group is still owned by the Abraaj Fund as controlling shareholder and is actually the oldest participation among 146 portfolio companies shown on the Abraaj Group website.

The future ownership of Spinneys has been rife with expectations that Abraaj would seek an exit from the investment. This is in no way surprising given the nature of the private equity business but the current indications are that an optimum exit opportunity will come after the group realizes further expansions and when its main asset bases in Egypt and Lebanon allow for better valuations on virtue of improved macroeconomic and political realities.

Spinneys’ expansion plans over the past 15 years are a story in themselves, reflecting the vagaries of an environment where many international retailers have paid with high losses for ventures that got trapped in culture conflicts or misunderstandings of different commercial languages. Over the years, the management has been liberally trumpeting plans to penetrate a bewildering number of markets from Kazakhstan to Morocco and sub-Saharan Africa. Plans for several countries, such as Morocco, could not be realized at the times that they were envisioned for but current projects for various equity and franchising formulas are in place for Libya, Kuwait, Nigeria, and under negotiations for Pakistan, Iran, Tunisia, Algeria and elsewhere.

According to Wright, Spinneys would be valued in the ballpark of a quarter billion dollars if the investors sought to exit today but could represent a much higher value if an exit comes at an optimal time. The current restraints are the higher risk perception of the Lebanese and Egyptian markets while the future potential would be due to its brand and management experience with creating and operating modern retail stores in multiple markets that are not easy to tackle from the outside.

On the operational side, the group banks on a wildly successful loyalty program as a core marketing engine. The points-based scheme offers rewards to loyal spenders and stores are visibly busier on “double point days” when the company entices customers with the prospect of extra progress in earning these rewards, which in the base loyalty program range from household items to small consumer electronics. These rewards are moreover so popular and customer preferences for them so unpredictable that stores often run out of them near the end of a rewards campaign, to the effect of Wright acknowledging that “the loyalty scheme’s success has created its own problems.”

Rewarding loyalty
“We are very happy with the way the program is going. Almost everybody [among large retail groups] has a loyalty scheme but very few loyalty schemes will deliver to consumers the gratification where multiple products are very much in reach,” Wright said. Not at all bashful about the need for retailers to be aggressive, he conceded that Spinneys uses the program to incentivize customers to buy products where the group can achieve higher margins than the razor-thin ones that generally characterize the retail trade in fast moving consumer goods.
Spinneys has transported the concept to Egypt and Jordan and will soon launch it in Qatar. However, the loyalty program here remains the most advanced and the retailer is currently working to develop it further to tailor its suggestive power to customer behaviors on specific product types, by for example offering extra points to wine lovers to make them do more of their shopping for this margin-rich palate pleaser at      the chain.

In other customer-facing matters, Spinneys has a policy to charge customers only the lower price if a product’s shelf price differs from the price shown at the cash register, a problem that is all too frequent in their stores. However, this policy is often not adhered to by store personnel, Wright admitted, saying that the company would do more to engrain policy-compliant behavior in staff members’ actual retail practices.

Courting controversy
But while notes from customers on flawed pricing or quality of products, along with service complaints, are parts of Wright’s daily diet delivered to him from all customer communication logged at the chain’s call center, these were nothing compared to the accusations leveled against the Lebanese operation and Wright personally in 2012 of paying below the minimum wage, of bullying dissenting employees and disrespecting employee rights.

In his interview with Executive, Wright refuted the accusations as baseless and originating from a handful of activists and political players with partisan support from one or two media outlets. Wright claimed that the company was complying with all its tax and social obligations and was audited regularly by the authorities.  “We may have been the only company that absolutely paid everything although it has a big workforce. We pay all the minimum wages, all the social security contributions, we pay additional medical care. We have always been and always wanted to be the preferred employer,” he said.

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Business

Stowing the rich

by Thomas Schellen
written by Thomas Schellen

The formula is intriguing from a commercial perspective and it has pizzaz: the Beirut Yacht Club, scheduled to operate for the next two months under a soft-opening formula and celebrate commencement of business with a formal launch in April, targets the upper crust of the resident business community with a concrete space for reveling, relaxing, and rubbing shoulders — the 14,000 square meter (sqm) Yacht Club building at the end of Zaitunay Bay development in the St. Georges Bay.

The property includes areas for members and their guests in the form of bars, restaurants, terraces, a library, pool, meeting and recreational rooms, plus 53 residential units, of which nine will be operated by the club as exclusive lodging facilities. Of the remaining 44 units, 11 have been sold and the others are for sale as serviced apartments at a range previously not found in the Lebanese market — prices per square meter range from $15,000 to $25,000, according to Farouk Kamal, chairman and general manager of Beirut Waterfront Development S.A.L., the company which owns and operates the project.
The market that a developer can address with such a product is clearly the high net-worth and ultra high net-worth community, or individuals and families in the top 10 percent — those who, globally, own 86 percent of the world’s wealth according to the 2013 Global Wealth Report by Credit Suisse. The segregation of this addressable market from the averagely heeled population is reflected in the access threshold of the Beirut Yacht Club. Enrollment in the club, which will be limited to 500 members and carries an initiation fee of $15,000 for an individual and $20,000 for a couple, is precondition for buying one of the club’s residences.

Kamal is positive about the prospects of finding buyers who will happily part from their cash in exchange for a flat which will cost around $3 million based on average unit size of 150 sqm and median sqm prices of $20,000. People have already shown “a lot of interest,” he says with ostentatious confidence that his target market will jump on the opportunity to procure an apartment which is priced off the local charts but comes “fully furnished” and with the entitlement to use the “4,000 square meters of club area attached to it.”

He admits, however, that the company cannot be sure about the Yacht Club’s performance in the coming summer and is basically keeping its fingers crossed in hopes for improvements in Beirut’s tourism and general security conditions so that the inaugural season will go well in terms of the venue’s usage for events, leisure and food and beverage offerings. A good market response in these areas will also be important for the attractiveness of the real estate. “We are selling club residences and people will appreciate the residence when the club is buzzing and active,” Kamal says.

Reaching the social stratosphere
Besides the knowledge that Beirut real estate prices tend to be extremely resilient against downward pressures, other incentives for investing in a Yacht Club residence include the option to have the management short-let a unit on behalf of the owner. And of course, owners can circulate through the club basking in the feeling that they actually own a piece of the place, in contrast to the 90 percent of their fellow club members who will at least have to cross the street to get home — if they reside in one of the nearby residential structures of the Beirut downtown. Kamal sees a natural reservoir for Yacht Club membership in the district’s population of bankers, high-powered consultants and other business leaders to whom he wants to offer a community environment whose members “want to enjoy a certain level of exclusivity and at the same time rub shoulders with the right people.”

Adding a further dash of reputation, the Beirut Yacht Club might offer honorary one-year membership to select ambassadors countries whose embassies are the most active in Lebanon. Beyond the paying members, diplomatic elites and their guests, however, the club will not welcome the public to revel on its premises. This restriction to a wealthy and minuscule part of the population is perceived by critics of the project as flying in the face of the land reclamation that created the land on which the Beirut Yacht Club and the adjacent Zaitunay Bay hospitality area have been constructed.

The controversy over the transfer of these reclaimed parcels to the private sector — meaning Solidere, the company mandated with the reconstruction and development of the Beirut downtown — has roots in the 1990s that relate to the case of the St. Georges Hotel and the reclamation of land for the New Beirut Waterfront of which Zaitunay Bay is but a tiny part. A reverberation of the old confrontation recently rung through the media by way of a very public altercation between caretaker finance minister Mohammed Safadi and caretaker public works and transport minister Ghazi Aridi. In an exchange of accusations, Aridi asked Safadi if he was a “thief” and also claimed that the construction of an elevated walkway in Zaitunay Bay was illegal.

The Zaitunay Bay project and its managing company are a 50-50 joint venture of Solidere and Stow Group. As Kamal confirms, Safadi is the main shareholder in Stow Group, a real estate and investment holding with interests in the United Kingdom, Lebanon, and Oman. Besides heading Beirut Waterfront Development, Kamal is also the executive chairman and a shareholder of the group’s Stow Capital Partners.

Big fuss over a small construction

On the face of it, the argument over a building violation in Zaitunay Bay is focused on a technicality. The absence of a required decree does not put into question the legitimacy of the land’s allocation for private ownership and the construction is not a recent alteration of building plans or anything such. The 10-year-old original design for the project shows the disputed walkway leading up to the roof of the Yacht Club as terminating point (with exceptional sea view) of a promenade for broad public access.

From the perspective of its use value, the private ownership of Zaitunay Bay’s existing marina-side boardwalk and its upper promenade has caused some restrictions on activities such as skateboarding. From the area’s design point of view, on the other hand, the extension of the promenade has a consistent appeal and from the perspective of balancing the recreational interests of restaurant goers, skateboarders and so on, finding a solution appears to be a matter typical for community arbitration rather than cabinet-level action.
Much more interesting, albeit in hindsight, is the question of how the public interest was represented at the time when Solidere and Stow first forged their partnership. Solidere’s 2012 Annual Report contains an elaborate narration and an impressive pictorial on the downtown’s development that far outshines the report’s financial pages. This narration states as a fact that the two companies formed a joint venture to whose capital Solidere contributed 22,350 sqm of land with permission for 20,000 sqm of built-up area while Stow contributed $31.6 million in cash.

The report’s financial pages specify further that the joint venture was formed in February 2004 with an initial capital of $19,900 and that the partners increased this capital in 2006 by $12.8 million and that Solidere sold “properties with an aggregate cost of $10.1 million… to the joint venture for a total consideration of $31.6 million” against which Stow contributed the equivalent cash amount.

Not explained is how the partnership was agreed upon and if there were competitors for entering a deal with Solidere to develop what are today Zaitunay Bay and the Beirut Yacht Club.

What can be said is that Stow Group, whose founders in 1985 included both Safadi and Kamal, has a visible propensity to collaborate with leading companies. The company says on its website that it is engaged in three “principal industry relationships.” Solidere is identified as a principal partner and so are TAG Aviation, with whom Stow has shared interests in the UK’s Farnborough Airport and Grosvenor.

The latter partnership means that Stow enjoys a strong business link with a company that is not only one of the longest-standing property owners in the posh Mayfair and Belgravia districts of the UK capital but also represents the business interests of the richest man in the country, Gerald Grosvenor, Duke of Westminster.

Stow’s projects in London in several ways give a very different impression from its more adventurous projects in Beirut. For example, an office project in Mayfair was not only blended marvelously into its street’s architectural context but its recent delivery was “on programme” and in line with what the company had said in a 2010 press release. In Lebanon, the congruence between targeted project completion dates and actual deliveries was nil.
If they say anything beyond highlighting that Beirut is not your usual market for projects and developments, the implications of Stow’s UK partnerships and track record may be that the company is  both keen on rubbing shoulders with the most potent partners it can find, eager to abide by its contractual obligations, and very much at home in the peculiar segment of the property market where a square meter price of $25,000 is not absolute record material (in 2012, Stow UK put a 870 sqm London townhouse up for sale with an asking price of GBP 17.5 million — about $27 million at the time and in excess of $31,000 per sqm).

A Bay on course?
In Lebanon’s feeble relationship between public and private spaces, the corner that Zaitunay Bay represents in a long shoreline of atrocious vistas interspersed with a few bearable developments is definitely more accessible, more appreciable, and better developed than some of its equivalents.

The hospitality project has lost some of its initial — and quite overbearing — snobbishness during the 2012/13 downturn of tourism and in a somewhat surprising statement, Kamal today emphasizes that “we know that for a project to be successful in Lebanon, whether it is a yacht club or a strip of restaurants, you need to depend on the local people, the middle class professional people. This is because if you are successful with them, tourists will come to that place. But if it is only tourists that come here, the locals will probably not come.”

The hospitality mix in Zaitunay Bay in January 2014 evidences a stronger orientation toward the locals and their tastes and pocket books when compared with the area’s initial tone. According to Kamal, the project owners steered the development partially away from the concept’s very first ambition of creating quality public space. He says they did so out of fears that this space could be abused.

It remains to be seen which course the Yacht Club will steer in the coming years, noting that nothing much in Lebanon ever comes out as planned or expected. But in a sense, the hyper-luxury orientation of the area is not actually new. Some 50 years back, in a period which older nostalgic socialites still like to call Lebanon’s golden era, the hospitality properties in this very neighborhood were the places where the elite sipped teas and aperitifs or smoked cigars in presumed splendid isolation from the squalor of the masses.

The question to be answered in the coming years in Zaitunay Bay, the whole New Waterfront and indeed the entire downtown is whether the necessary profit orientation of a private sector stakeholder is able to put enough emphasis on the social profits of well-managed public space, serving both public and private interests in reasonable balance.

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Business

A blossoming business

by Nabila Rahhal
written by Nabila Rahhal

It started out as a fun opportunity but became a real business,” says Mazen Maroun of Lotus Management Group, the hospitality development company which he and his brother Samer founded in 2003 with the launch of a sushi delivery service from La Gondole, their family owned pastry shop in Mar Elias.

Ten years later, it has indeed become a solid business with 300 employees and two successful restaurant chains, Japanese restaurant Soto and Olio pizzeria, with six branches of each spread across Lebanon. Toward the end of 2013 — despite the instability in the country — the brothers launched a new restaurant, Prune, in one of the side streets of Mar Mkhayel, Beirut, which they perceive as a new challenge for their skills in the business.
Their operations began with the concept of high quality, fresh, yet affordable sushi. “At that time, there were only a few and very expensive sushi venues in Lebanon and so we wanted to make it more accessible for everyone,” says Samer Maroun. For eight months, they tested the market through a delivery service launched from La Gondole. Mazen recalls how much attention they paid to the details — clean and neat packaging was as vital as having fresh and safe sushi at an affordable price — all of which created a trustworthy image for Soto — whose average delivery bill is now approximately $32 — when they opened their first venue in Gemmayze at the end of 2003. Two years later, they launched the first Olio right next door, and the company has been expanding and adding branches at an average pace of two venues every two years ever since.

The concept of good quality food at affordable rates resonated with the Lebanese consumer who cannot always afford high-end dining yet appreciates a good meal. It is also a concept that allowed the brothers to keep expanding — reinvesting revenues generated from the preceding venues into their next projects — with no partners to their company save for their venues in Dbayeh and Kaslik.

Although home delivery remains a viable aspect of their operations — accounting for 30 percent of orders — the business has shifted toward the onsite service, with Soto witnessing a yearly footfall of 220,000 and Olio 290,000. At its best performance, Soto serves more than 2.5 tons of fresh fish per month and Olio serves 1.4 tons of mozzarella, both indicators the company uses to illustrate its success.

Lotus Management Group had one misguided venture into Chinese cuisine in 2006, opening a Chinese restaurant in Gemmayze one day before the outbreak of the July 2006 war. The restaurant remained in operation for a year but was later sacrificed to maintain Soto and Olio, according to Samer. “For Chinese food to be [viable], as all our venues are, the average bill has to be between $40 and $50 and the Lebanese are not used to paying this much for Chinese,” rationalizes Mazen.

But despite their successes, the company was not immune to the same challenges faced across the economy in 2013 — making it the worst year in its 10 years of operation, according to Mazen, with a 65 percent drop in sales compared to 2012.

Even though the year started out well — and even outperformed 2012 in the first four months — it ended badly, with only the Gemmayze venues reporting a growth from the previous year. “Economically the year was a disaster but we are not thinking of closing anything: we were living abroad but came back because we believe in the country. Having said that, if [the situation] stays like this for four, five years down the line then who knows? We are still developing and expanding, but cautiously, instead of opening aggressively and creating even more business opportunities,” says Mazen.

Beyond lebanon
Expansion is still on the group’s mind, both domestically and globally. In line with the recent trend in the Lebanese hospitality business, Lotus Management Group is looking to franchise Olio and Soto abroad but is determined to find the right partner with which to do so. “There is a lot of interest but it is not as easy as it sounds because we are not looking just for the money. It is very easy to get capital but the right partner with the right background in the business and good PR is hard to find,” says Mazen. The brothers don’t have a specific region in mind and say they will go with whichever country provides them with the right opportunity.
Domestically, the Marouns have developed a new $300,000 investment in French bistro Prune, born out of Samer’s love for French cuisine and their need for a fresh challenge. While Soto and Olio have a recognizable ‘chain-restaurant’ feel, Prune is meant to be cozier and is where the brothers say they find themselves.

“Olio and Soto are more for the public than for us and there is very little contact with the customer on our part. Prune is us and every detail, from the plate to the kitchen to the customer, is taken care of by us,” says Mazen.

One can immediately sense the warm urban spirit that differentiates Prune from Soto and Olio from the French chic décor — including the mechanic’s rack transformed into a wine display that greets you at the entrance, the sepia class photographs adorning the walls and the black bistro-like wooden chairs and leather couches — and the fact that one of the two brothers is always present to greet patrons as if they were old friends and to ensure they have a pleasant experience.

According to Mazen, the customer profile for Prune is “those who are between the ages of 25 and 65 and are well-travelled, cosmopolitan and appreciate a real and affordable bistro.” Though this describes the typical clientele in the area, Mazen believes they are lucky to be away from the bars on the main street. “It is a plus to be off Mar Mkhayel because usually in Lebanon, streets that blossom quickly attract those looking for easy money and they ruin it for the more established,” elaborates Mazen.

The menu, which includes French staples such as mussels, cassouleh and steaks, is signature Lotus Management Group in that it serves quality food at competitive prices, with the average bill at $50 per person including wine, reasonable relative to prices for French cuisine in the market.

A family affair
The venue has a seating capacity of 45 people and with a turnover of 2.5 tables per shift, the Marouns say they are satisfied with Prune’s performance taking in consideration the situation in the country.

When asked whether Prune will be up for local expansion or franchising, the brothers agreed that they don’t see that happening in the upcoming four years. “It’s not only the décor, it’s the spirit that will be hard to duplicate. Prune is here and only here for now,” says Samer.
Lotus Management Group is not resting on its laurels and is already finishing up construction of a gourmet sandwich shop with a small terrace appropriately called À Côté, as it is adjacent to Prune.

Meanwhile, due to a sentimental value, La Gondole — where it all started with their sushi home delivery operation — remains a base for their businesses and is where their main office and all the accounting, management and purchasing needs of the business are located. “We did not give it a push because my mom and dad consider it their raison d’etre; if we give it new management they will not have a role and we do not want that. We could have developed it to meet the area’s needs but we are enjoying our parents’ pleasure managing it,” says Mazen.

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Society

Downtown, where everything waits

by Nabila Rahhal
written by Nabila Rahhal

Walk into the Beirut Souks in downtown Beirut in the evening lately and there’s a noticeable buzz of activity that’s been long missed from the sometimes eerily quiet shopping area. The Beirut Souks Cinemacity is finally open and the Souks seem primed to receive the benefits.
The cinema is part of the second phase of Solidere’s original plan for the Souks area, explains Rami Ariss, land sales and real estate leasing division manager at Solidere, with the third and final phase being a department store which has been delayed due to “a few complications.”

It’s all in the design
The remaining part of the second phase is an entertainment center whose exterior structure is complete — and can be seen to the left side of the cinema complex — but whose concept is yet to be determined. “We are bidding for a concept but we decelerated work on it because we want something unique and distinguished. Also, we don’t want to open it in the uncertain times the country is facing and risk burning the concept,” explains Ariss, adding that the entertainment center should be open within a year but that for now Solidere is focusing on the new cinema. Solidere’s goal is to have the cinema be an anchor for the mall itself and increase overall footfall to the area.

Cinemacity, a partnership of Empire Cinemas and World Media Holding, a media company operating in the Middle East, collaborated with Solidere on the cinema. Both Empire and World Media Holding have their separate cinema-related operations in Lebanon and the region, with their first partnership being Cinemacity in Dora’s City Mall before moving on to the Beirut Souks.

The cinema is run and operated by Cinemacity with Solidere taking the role of both the landlord and a partner of the operating company.

Hammad Atassi, chairman and general manager of Beirut Souks Cinemacity, says over $25 million was invested into the project — “a big undertaking.” Solidere’s Ariss says that the company ensured no cost was spared to create something iconic that would be sustainable for many years to come. In fact, according to Ariss, one of the reasons for the delay in the theater’s opening date was that there were many details involving the aesthetics of the design to cover.

The multiplex stands apart from most cinema complexes in Lebanon, if only by nature of its size. While typical mall cinemas in Lebanon are 3,500 square meters, Beirut Souks Cinemacity — the only stand-alone multiplex in the country — spans 27,000 square meters and is the largest in the region.

The space is divided into 12 regular theaters and two VIP sections — with an 18 and half meter screen in two of the theaters. There are three food concession areas serving a variety of munchies ranging from typical cinema fare like popcorn and nachos to salads and sandwiches, as well as some shops on Allenby Street and a food court. Despite its size, the cinema does not have the most seats in the region, a trade-off,  Atassi says, for its comfort and aesthetics.

The project’s concept is based on visuals and vibrancy. The exterior architecture was created by Valode et Pistre and is enveloped in LED screens, visible from Allenby Street as one approaches the Souk area. The screen is part of the interactive façade of the cinema and displays ever-changing scenes, such as the Lebanese flag on Independence Day or various holiday images in December.

The interior was designed by Nabil Dada’s Dada and Associates, whose brief says they “worked in response to the distinctive external architecture of the cinema by modifying the internal volumes and seamlessly integrating cutting-edge technology into their design to create a young and vibrant atmosphere.” This is reflected by some interior features such as the vaulted ceiling lined with 256 LED screens and the 50 meter long corridor leading to the lower level theaters, with its projections of animations on both sides and the various uses of lights on the escalators and walkways to create moods within the structure. Aside from its design and technology, Beirut Souks Cinemacity’s location in downtown Beirut and the free use of the Beirut Souks parking for four hours also attract cinemagoers. “A city’s downtown is usually where the major cinemas are located and this was the case in Lebanon before the civil war, but not after it. This project was long overdue and deserves to get the kind of business it is getting now,” says Atassi.

A box office hit
The cinema’s performance has exceeded expectations and Atassi says that in his experience with other cinemas in Beirut new theaters in Lebanon usually take three to four months before they achieve their average ticket sales. Thanks to the project’s visibility, he continues, ticket sales at the Souks rapidly exceeded the 1,000 tickets daily margin and were closer to 3,000 a day, something that no new Lebanese cinema has achieved in such a short space of time. “We expect it to get a third of the share of the Lebanese box office shortly,” says Atassi.
December’s bombing in the downtown area adjacent to the Souks slowed admissions to 450 people but the number shot up to 1,700 the next night.

“Despite it having the same ticket price as other theaters in Lebanon [$8], the Beirut Souks Cinemacity is attracting high-end, mature customers who are drawn more to intellectual films than the latest adventure blockbusters,” says Atassi, adding that since they have so many theaters, they will be playing films for a longer time and also featuring independent films.
While it is too soon to tell whether the cinema has had any major impact on footfall in the Souks, Atassi tentatively attributes the increased activity and longer opening hours in the restaurants around the cinema to its presence. “It is difficult to tell if this is the usual holiday traffic for the Souks or an increase brought on by the cinemas. To be able to have a solid understanding of its impact on the Souks themselves, you need normal circumstances for the Souks. Now we will be able to see,” says Ariss.

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Society

Something to talk about

by Michele Azrak, Zeina Loutfi & Ramsay G. Najjar
written by Michele Azrak, Zeina Loutfi & Ramsay G. Najjar

The single biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place.” One could easily argue that in this statement George Bernard Shaw aptly described the affliction of the world of corporate communication for the longest time. Communication is the exchange of information between people. Yet most companies have left out the word exchange by talking at people instead of talking with them. In today’s increasingly connected world, the power lies in the hands of consumers, who are inducing change in the communication landscape by demanding less noise and more value. While this does not necessarily imply a drastic departure from what already exists, the coming years will surely see major improvements in how we use what we already have — knowledge, tools and platforms.
What is certain today is that this intrinsically complex communication landscape is forcing companies to look within and refocus on the value they have to offer for a new generation of consumers and stakeholders. Understanding where the future of communication lies is driving companies to improve experiences and relationships, and to do so it has become obvious that companies need to focus on delivering valuable content.

Content is still king
In the increasingly virtually vocal society in which we live, everyone has a voice and wants to use it. The amount of content being published online is growing exponentially; with so much competing for consumers’ attention, companies need to become more relevant and authentic in order to break through all the noise. For this, companies should favor the creation and distribution of valuable and compelling content over controlled messages and fabricated sales pitches. The primary intent of such a content-driven approach is to engage and build meaningful relationships with consumers, rather than to sell to them.

Whereas this approach has been around for a while, the focus had been on the quantity of content, with companies trying to publish as much content as frequently as possible. However, it has become clear that the future lies in quality-driven content. Companies should start creating content that educates, informs, inspires and entertains. This can be in the form of blog posts, newsletters, white papers, live presentations, podcasts, standard and micro-videos, and the list goes on.

There have been several success stories so far, with top global brands leading the pack. Last year, Coca-Cola made the news when it completely revamped its website and re-introduced it as an online magazine entitled the Coca-Cola Journey. It featured articles on entertainment, environment, health and sports, later adding food and music channels. The difference of course is that the content in that “magazine” is subjective, not objective: it is stories that favor Coca-Cola’s brands, products and interests. HSBC is also showing the way with its Global Connections website, which helps in the positioning of the bank as an authority on international business with in-depth articles and strategies for global businesses — rarely mentioning HSBC.

Coming to our part of the world, we have started to see local and regional companies begin to dabble in content creation and publishing, but these fledgling efforts remain far from really delivering brand-agnostic content that is seeded with inspiration and that covers topics customers deeply care about.  Though quality content creation is challenging and time-consuming,  it will allow companies to distance themselves from their competition, attract and maintain an audience, and create and sustain business opportunities.

A shift to more dynamic storytelling
It is important to highlight however that it is not enough to simply create interesting content and put it out there. Without a coherent story that brings together the content, one would just end up with more noise and confusion. The goal is to create a unified and coordinated experience for the audience, and to develop deeper emotional connections with them. This can only be done by storytelling, which should be the thread that links the content together across all channels.

Even then, not just any storytelling will do. The new reality we live in also means a shift from one-way storytelling to dynamic storytelling that factors in the consumers’ voice. Moving away from the traditional in-house generated stories, companies need to now focus on stories that spark a conversation with their consumers as well as encourage and make the most of consumer-generated stories. Following through with the Coca-Cola example, the company has established itself as the leader in storytelling, creating a whole stimulating world around the brand, with compelling stories that strongly involve consumers.

While companies in the region have started to listen to what is being said about their brands, there remains a long road ahead: they need to start having a conversation and get the audience involved in it.

Rethinking the landscape
As companies alter the way they communicate with consumers and increase their focus on content, they will need to rethink many of their channels. The most notable one would be their website, which should now adapt to a more consumer-focused philosophy and accentuate the brand’s story flow through design. Instead of being static, websites are starting to look more like magazine portals with greater focus on the content produced with combinations of rich articles, interviews, opinions, interactive functionality, visuals and videos. Soft drinks leaders such as Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Red Bull are setting the trend and their websites are worth checking out.

This does not mean that the main corporate sections such as investor information, executives’ biographies, and press releases are no longer present on the sites; these are just relegated to the sidelines. And this certainly does not imply that all companies should just stop what they are doing and jump on the bandwagon, especially the less established brands that will continue to need a more business-oriented website for some time to come. They could start with enriching their site with more pictures, sounds and videos, and most importantly thoroughly plan and understand the consumer’s journey through their website before diving into any redesign.

Furthermore, simply creating good content on a visually engaging website is not nearly enough as thousands of pieces of great content go unread every day. The challenge will also be for companies to focus on effectively getting their content outside of their website. They should understand how content spreads across the web and find ways to reach new prospects by amplifying great content through multiple channels. For example, Forbes provides a digital platform for sponsored content, but one that is high in quality and that answers to audiences’ needs. Companies like SAP, Merill Lynch and Microsoft have been writing and distributing thought leadership content that is as interesting as pieces written by reporters and knowledgeable contributors, and their content seems to be viewed for the same amount of time as editorial content.

Content-driven communication does not yield value solely to already established brands. While some companies may be restricted in terms of means or resources, no company is too small to experiment with this approach as long as it crafts a clear communication strategy, evaluates its performance, and makes changes along the way accordingly. With titles such as content marketing manager, director of content, or even chief content officer popping up more than ever before, companies in the years ahead will have to embrace content-focused communication as part of their overall communication strategy. They simply can’t afford to be content (pun intended) with staying on the sidelines in the content world we live in. You can only toe the water so long before you have to dive in headfirst.

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Uncoiling Iran

by Gareth Smith
written by Gareth Smith

Nothing raises the entrepreneurial juices like the smell of a new market. Last month’s implementation of November’s interim Geneva nuclear deal between Iran and the world powers alerted United States and European companies to the prospect that, sooner or later, sanctions will loosen and Iran will open up.
The business potential is immense. Income that could be generated from the world’s largest gas reserves, at 33.6 trillion cubic meters or 18 percent of the global total, and the fourth largest oil reserves, at 157 billion barrels or 9.4 percent of global reserves, would make the Iranians wealthy.

Lifting sanctions would make possible the 8 percent average annual growth rate envisaged in the Five Year Plan of 2010-15. Iran is like a pent-up spring, pushed back by US and European sanctions which in two years have halved oil exports and obstructed access to both insurance and dollar markets, as well as by older sanctions that stymied the development of gas reserves. The economy contracted 5.6 percent in 2012 and 3 percent in 2013, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

But the spring is starting to uncoil. Since November, the clearest excitement has been among car manufacturers, specifically mentioned in the interim Geneva agreement. Peugeot and Renault have led the way, with past experience working with Iranian producers Khodro and Saipa, and envision taking Iran’s annual vehicle production back from 2013’s 385,000 to the peak of 1.6 million reached in 2011.

The agreement also included facilitating financial channels for humanitarian trade, including medicines. Pharmaceutical companies are keen to tap into a market that analysts put at $3 billion annually with 30 percent imports. Germany’s Merck is looking for local manufacturers to co-produce two of its medicines. The French Sanofil, which licenses products to an Iranian manufacturer, is planning new product launches to improve last year’s $3.7 million profit on sales of $10.2 million.

The ‘little Satan’ will not be left behind. British exports to Iran plunged 68.2 percent from 2005 to 2011, the largest fall among leading European Union countries, but during last month’s visit of parliamentarians to Tehran, Lord Lamont, chairman of the British-Iranian Chamber of Commerce and former chancellor of the exchequer, said British pharmaceutical companies and vehicle manufacturers were among those very interested in Iran.

Such companies selling in Iran, or investing in joint production, will have consequences for the country. In the longer term a return to high economic growth, coupled with substantial outside investment, may well transform it. Firstly, high growth and ‘opening up’ imply economic liberalization. Thus far, privatization has been muted and often involved transferring shares to quasi-state bodies or pension funds. This reflects the absence of foreign investment and shortage of domestic private-sector capital. But the 2006 decision by the Ayatollah Khamenei to back privatization of most state-owned industry is compatible with vibrant private banking, more effective capital markets and wider foreign investment.

Secondly, high economic growth is likely to increase Iranians’ expectations for material goods and better job opportunities, especially among the 35 percent of the 77 million population aged 15 ­to 29, the highest proportion recorded worldwide.  Growth may also encourage aspirations for greater social or political freedoms. In all cases, managing expectations will pose a challenge for the leaders of the Islamic Republic. After all, economic growth was high, albeit uneven across sectors, under the Shah prior to 1979.

Thirdly are implications for energy markets. Even a short-term, limited increase in oil exports — given a likely lower OPEC output in 2014, projected to drop 500,000 barrels a day by the US’s Energy Information Administration — implies other OPEC members, notably Saudi Arabia, will be cutting back. Fourthly, are political implications, in central and south Asia, and the Middle East. Supplying energy and simply being richer will enhance Iran’s influence — posing a greater challenge for opponents and critics so far unwilling to accept what the Iranian leadership sees as its legitimate role as a regional power.

Should this be seen as a disaster? Greater trade — especially alongside educational exchanges, more travel for businesspeople and simple citizens — may not just break down barriers set by sanctions. It may enmesh Iran more closely in the outside world, giving all parties more incentives to resolve disputes diplomatically. A more open, richer Iran may be more at peace with the world.

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A foul reminder

by Yasser Akkaoui
written by Yasser Akkaoui

The Lebanese civil war of 1975 to 1990 did more than destroy the country — it made it impossible to put it back together again. Institutions were demolished, corruption was normalized and, most importantly, a generation of militiamen rose to power who cared little about unity.

The founding fathers of Lebanon — those brave men (for they were sadly all men) who formed the country on the basis of independence, tolerance and moderation — were sidelined, never to return.

In their place the very same militiamen who fought each other for over a decade swapped the sword for the suit and learned to call each other statesmen. But clothes do not make the man and the majority of them have not changed one bit. They claim their share of the pie and keep their foreign masters happy but do nothing to help the country develop independently.
Since 2005, Hezbollah has become the latest party to be transformed from militia to pseudo-statesman, with the 2008 Doha Accords effectively offering them a seat at the top table. And in the past year we have seen a new player on the ground — the Salafis and Al-Qaeda affiliates — pushing for influence. They may be easy to dismiss but make no mistake; they are a rising force and are looking for their share. It is clear that any global agreement over Syria, which will impact Lebanon, will include them.

For those moderates that survived the civil war, it has been a cold winter as the rule of the gun has taken hold. We have been isolated and ignored; condemned as traitors for refusing to pledge allegiance to one foreign power or another.

But we may be seeing the first signs of spring. Prominent businessman Farid Chehab and others have launched the Blue Gold project, which aims to claim the country’s vast and deeply politicized water resources for the Lebanese people. In the process they aim to nurture a strong, independent civil society that puts the country first.

Their plans are grand, utopian some might say, and they are certainly flawed. But they are laudable. Civil society has to demand the impossible, if only to force action from the political class.

The rule of the gun never lasts. One day we will get our country back, and when we do we need a strong civil society to help us move forward.

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Economics & Policy

What does $3 billion buy these days?

by Joe Dyke
written by Joe Dyke

Lebanon’s president could barely contain his joy. Speaking only a few days after Christmas, Michel Sleiman announced a late present to the Lebanese in a year that had brought little to celebrate. Speaking live on the major television networks Sleiman announced that Saudi Arabia had agreed to invest in the Lebanese army to the tune of $3 billion, a grant that he said would enable the military to “strengthen its capabilities” and “confront terrorists.” Coming only two days after the killing of a pro-Saudi former minister, the president’s message seemed fairly pointed.

The grant could undoubtedly have a major effect on the capacity of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). $3 billion, spread over five years, would be a major boost to Lebanon’s defense budget, which the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in 2012 estimated at $1.7 billion annually. If invested wisely, the fighting capacity of the military could greatly improve, as could its ability to control its borders.

 

Editorial: Saudi grant to Lebanon deserves cautious welcome

The investment is certainly needed. Currently, despite having over 60,000 soldiers, the LAF has only a token air force, relies heavily on Russian-made tanks from the 1960s and has a minimal navy. New hardware could enable the LAF to carry out its duties far more efficiently. Elias Ferhat, a former Lebanese general, cites the case of the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian camp in 2007 — when the Lebanese army took three and a half months to crush an insurgency led by Islamist groups. “Had the Lebanese had any fixed wings [planes or drones] it could have ended it in 15 days or fewer,” he said.

Yet those expecting this to be a game-changing moment which will allow the Lebanese army to justify disarming Hezbollah and even provide a military counterweight to Israel may be disappointed. Closer inspection of the deal indicates that while the benefits may be significant for the army’s capacity to control security internally, it is doubtful whether it will have a major effect on relations with Israel or Hezbollah.
Regional deal

Part of the reason the deal’s impact is unclear is that while the proclamations were bold, the details remain murky. As this magazine went to print, there had been no official confirmation of the $3 billion from either the Lebanese government, the Ministry of Defense or the LAF. Beyond the president’s statement, there are as yet no further details of where the money will go. “All we have so far is the declaration from the Saudi government and an acceptance from the Lebanese president,” said Farhat, cautioning that Saudi has a long history of promising money, “but when it comes to execution they do nothing. So it is too early to know how big [the effect will be].”

In fact, closer inspection of the deal suggests that it may have more to do with relations between Saudi Arabia and France than a sudden desire to support Lebanon’s military. At a regional level, as the United States has moved closer to rapprochement with Iran, Saudi Arabia — for many years America’s closest Arab ally — has appeared increasingly snubbed. In November, Riyadh surprised the world by turning down a seat on the United Nations Security Council after months of lobbying for it, a U-turn widely interpreted as a message to the US.

As relations with Washington have soured, leaders in Riyadh have been looking for new allies, with the French appearing to be the favored choice. They may well be voting with their wallets, with the two countries believed to be on the cusp of confirming a $1.4 billion deal to overhaul the Saudi navy — specifically the French-built F-2000 frigates.

The deal struck between Riyadh and Beirut is in fact a triangular one. Lebanon will not be allowed to invest the $3 billion however it sees fit, but will have to buy French goods and get training from France. This, said Aram Nerguizian — a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies and an expert on the LAF — indicates that the deal is as much about Paris as Beirut. “The deal benefits the French [weapons] industry first and foremost. No funding will be transferred directly to Lebanon and the mechanisms by which orders, payments and deliveries will play out are likely to be triangular and complicated by domestic constraints and pressures in all three countries concerned. Minimizing these pressures is incumbent upon effective trilateral engagement, not unlike recent LAF meetings in Paris and Riyadh.”

Indeed Nerguizian believes the Lebanese Armed Forces had only partial awareness of the deal before it was announced. “The LAF was consulted by the Lebanese president on its military development objectives and the Capabilities Development Plan, but they were not aware of any plan by Saudi Arabia to finance the sale of French systems, sustainment and training to the Lebanese,” he said.

What to buy

The debate around what the military should buy, therefore, is somewhat muddied as it is not yet clear by what mechanism the weapons will be selected. Will the LAF be able to prioritize areas where it feels it needs development or will the French dictate what they wish to sell?

Even if the LAF is in control, there are likely to be internal disputes over where the money should be allocated. Nerguizian points out that French naval expertise are among the world’s best and that Lebanon should seek to benefit from this. “This is not only a focus on acquiring ships. It is a bottom up effort to reshape an atrophied force of some 2,400 into a proper navy able to conduct patrol and interdiction in Lebanese territorial and economic waters. This would include dry docks, floating dry dock, ship-to-shore communications and other systems to supplement the sale of ship systems able to operate in difficult weather conditions.” Former general Ferhat, however, thinks the navy is less of a priority. “We need an air force because we don’t have a real one in Lebanon. We need also main battle tanks as our tanks are Syrian Russian-made tanks from the 60s,” he said. “These should be our priorities.”

Another potential tension may be over the percentage of the money spent on new goods. The Oxford Companion to American Military History points out that on average the cost of maintaining hardware over its lifetime is more than the initial cost of buying it.

It is as yet unclear what percentage of the $3 billion will be spent on new items and what will be allocated to maintain them. To give French industry the most short-term benefit, the focus would be on new items, but this could leave the LAF unable to foot the bill. “The maintenance of these weapons will cost hundreds of millions of dollars a year and the Lebanese budget cannot afford this,” Ferhat said. “We have a choice — can we acquire these weapons and maintain them or will they stay in a hangar for 12-15 years and then sold to countries such as Pakistan as they can afford to maintain them?”

Nerguizian believes the Lebanese army will push for finances to be allocated towards long-term acquisition. “The LAF is not looking to acquire $3 billion-worth of systems it cannot sustain… The LAF is operating under the premise that, if the $3 billion does in fact materialize, at least part of it must and will focus on sustainment.”

The need for clarity

One final element stressed by much of the media in understanding this deal is Saudi Arabia’s desire to influence Lebanese politics by weakening Hezbollah, which is the closest regional ally of Riyadh’s rival Iran. But again, the effect may be more modest than some have predicted.

If the purpose of the grant was to develop the LAF so that Hezbollah would no longer need to be armed, then it appears more than $3 billion is needed. Adnan Mansour, the caretaker foreign minister who is close to Hezbollah, dismissed the donation as “not enough to bolster Lebanon’s defense system,” pointing to the $17 billion Israeli annual defense budget. The extent of Hezbollah’s financial support from Iran and other donors is not known, but the Washington Institute for Near East Policy estimated it could be up to $200 million a year. Similarly the party has a huge network of voluntary donors, who pledge support to the party. While their total budget is significantly less than the LAF’s budget, Hezbollah has fewer responsibilities — with ‘resistance’ to Israel still its top priority. In this the party’s expert use of guerilla warfare has made it more capable of challenging Israeli aggression than traditional Middle Eastern militaries. “The Army is currently not able to be strong without [Hezbollah] at its side,” Mansour added.

Nerguizian agrees that the triangular nature of the deal makes it unlikely to be a direct challenge to Hezbollah. “$3 billion to France which will then sell as yet uncertain aid to the LAF will not lead to an LAF-Hezbollah confrontation, nor will it lead to the kinds of government formation that will seek to exclude the Shi’a and Hezbollah.”

What remains are more questions than answers. While the money from Saudi could have a transformative effect on the capacity of Lebanon’s armed forces, whether it actually will or not is unclear. The sooner more details are released, the better.

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Economics & Policy

Can Bassil go it alone?

by Jeremy Arbid
written by Jeremy Arbid

On January 8, caretaker Minister of Energy and Water Gebran Bassil again delayed the first licensing round for offshore oil and gas exploration ­— perhaps the biggest hope for Lebanon’s static economy. The reason was the same as the two previous times it had been delayed since September — two decrees need to be signed to allow the round to move forward. Political infighting has prevented the cabinet meeting to do so, thus Bassil has been forced to keep pushing back the bid.

But while this was old ground, this time there was a twist. Setting a new date of April 10, Bassil was adamant that “the [new] deadline is a final one.” He did not specify exactly what he meant by this, but this ambiguity has led some to interpret that if a cabinet has not been formed by April the minister will attempt to push through a move without the necessary decrees.

How far he could get without full cabinet approval is unclear. He certainly could not finalize any deal, as Lebanon’s 2010 Offshore Petroleum Law explicitly declares that any final agreement must be passed by decree. This procedure is supported by Article 89 in the Lebanese constitution which states: “No contract or concession for the exploitation of the natural resources of the country… may be granted except by virtue of a law and for a limited period.” Carole Nakhle, an energy economist at the Surrey Energy Economics Centre, explained, “the Offshore Petroleum [Resources] Law plainly states that the decrees should be approved by the Council of Ministers.”

What Bassil could do, however, is start to negotiate with companies on the basis of the model Exploration and Production Agreement (EPA). One of the two pending decrees declares the terms for the final EPA — the agreement between oil and gas companies and the government. But while the terms are not finalized, Bassil can begin negotiations working on the assumption that the model will form the basis for the final EPA.

An industry source, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said, “You can actually move along, and indeed it is common in resource-rich countries for terms to be agreed before formal regulations are passed approving these terms.” But, he stressed, companies will be reticent unless they are given assurances “that these are the final terms and that there won’t be a complete redraft.”

Dangerous precedent

Experts warn that moving forward without the decrees and the cabinet’s blessing is a precarious move. Oil companies are aware of the risk of investing in Lebanon’s offshore gas. However, as Mona Sukkarieh — co-founder of Middle East Strategic Perspectives, a Beirut-based political risk consultancy specializing in oil and gas — explained, “companies don’t like to operate on shaky legal grounds if their rights and licenses run the risk of being questioned at a later stage.”

These repeated delays continue to frustrate participating companies, particularly the largest companies in the bid, many of whom had only a skeleton presence at the Lebanon International Oil and Gas Summit in December.

However, these companies have experience operating in unstable political environments and have calculated Lebanon’s country risk into their strategic plans. A company’s decision to participate in a licensing round “is a strategic decision that is not reconsidered if a tender is temporarily delayed. Of course, this does not mean that the Lebanese government should keep testing their patience,” Sukkarieh explained.

The need for speed

In many ways Bassil is correct in demanding a final deadline — time is a factor for at least two reasons. In the face of political negotiations, the projected year in which Lebanon is supposed to become a gas producer, 2020, will surely be pushed back. By the next decade new sources of gas will be available in the global market. Israel has already started gas production and rumors of a proposed pipeline to Jordan are circulating. Globally, the United States, Australia, India, Canada and Indonesia are set for big increases in gas production, while regionally both Iran and Qatar are due to expand their output rapidly.

AT Kearney, a global management consulting firm, is forecasting that over the next decade, the surplus of supply will cause gas prices to fall. One of their primary indicators is gas import infrastructure, which is undergoing rapid expansion for both pipeline and liquefied natural gas, with much of this growth occurring in the Middle East. The World Bank expects prices in Europe and Asia to fall by around 10 percent in the next decade while the International Energy Agency anticipates a 30 percent decline in prices by 2020.

All this means that by the time Lebanon starts extracting, gas reserves lying offshore may not be as valuable as they are currently estimated. Thus the sooner Lebanon moves forward, the better.

The old enemy

The second reason that time is key involves the maritime border dispute with Israel over 873,000 square kilometers believed to be rich in resources.

The United States has been an active partner in resolving the border dispute, with multiple visits by high-ranking American officials. US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Diplomacy Amos Hochstein visited Lebanon in November 2013 to push for a deal, meeting with several leading political officials including caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri and Bassil.

By some accounts Hochstein proposed a compromise for the dispute during his visit. According to a recently published news release by Alem & Associates, a legal firm representing oil companies bidding in the licensing round, the proposal “consists of setting a maritime blue line area between both countries in which the disputed zones will remain unexploited.” In general, the proposal prescribes freezing any exploration and exploitation activity in the disputed area until a permanent solution can be found.

But Lebanon’s political infighting may be strengthening the Israeli government’s position. Reports from Israel have indicated that Tel Aviv has rejected the compromise put forward by the Americans, perhaps a sign that Israeli leaders are feeling increasingly confident in the face of the Lebanese government’s inaction. Similarly the Israelis have a new gas exploratory site, the Karish well, with reserves estimated at up to 2 trillion cubic feet, approximately 20 kilometers south of Lebanon’s border claims.

It’s another promising find for the Israelis, who grow more concerned about their ability to protect offshore gas installations. In fact, the Israel Defense Force (IDF) is requesting nearly a billion dollars to fund operational costs for large patrol vessels, extended surveillance and intelligence capabilities, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This allocation would be in addition to the recent acquisition of two state of the art German frigates that are bound for patrol of their Exclusive Economic Zone waters.

Each passing day provides less incentive for mediators such as Hochstein to help Lebanon retain its territorial waters — enabling Israel to move closer toward claiming parts of the disputed zone. As Malek Takieddine, an oil and gas lawyer representing companies preparing to bid in Lebanon’s first licensing round, explained, “You might see Israel granting licenses or permitting certain operations near or inside the territories claimed by Lebanon. If this occurs, it might be also coupled by military protection.”

Moving Forward

Those wishing to move Lebanon’s oil and gas sector forward are faced with two unenviable options — back the caretaker energy minister to move ahead without the support of the government, or wait for the formation of a new government. On the latter, there have been a few positive signs in recent weeks that suggest the wait may be coming to an end.

Despite the continued delays and political bickering surrounding the petroleum file, technical work at the Ministry of Energy and Water and the Petroleum Administration (PA) continues. The PA — the six-member body charged with running Lebanon’s oil and gas sector — has recently drafted both an Onshore Petroleum Law and a Petroleum Tax Law, posted advertisements for employment opportunities, begun soliciting tenders for the next government-backed oil and gas conference, and has been coordinating a series of roundtable discussions and dialogues with local policy experts. According to Nakhle the PA has performed its duties with a level of professionalism not typical to Lebanese bureaucracy. “Various departments in other relevant ministries, like finance, environment and economy, should also be working at the same speed and getting themselves ready,” she added. Perhaps this new efficiency could start with the formation of a new government. Then the country could move forward in the right way.

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